As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).
| October 1-8 | Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV |
| Pennsylvania | 51.3 | 40.6 | 2552 | 21 | |
| Michigan | 51.1 | 41.3 | 531 | 17 | |
| Washington | 53.0 | 43.6 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 52.6 | 43.3 | 2160 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 51.1 | 42.2 | 3073 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.2 | 44.3 | 1531 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 46.8 | 42.2 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.0 | 46.6 | 500 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 49.3 | 44.9 | 6622 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 49.6 | 45.4 | 2891 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 49.9 | 46.2 | 1768 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 48.5 | 45.2 | 2110 | 9 | |
| Florida | 49.3 | 46.0 | 2250 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.6 | 46.0 | 3113 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.7 | 47.5 | 1000 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.5 | 48.7 | 1477 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 182 | 163 |
| RCP/Total | 49 | 43.9 | - | 364 | 174 |
As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.
UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.
760 Comments
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William, where did you find a poll giving Obama 50.9 in Georgia?
Also, both RCP and electoralvote have McCain ahead in Indiana.
The World needs a POTUS that will heal and unite America so that it can provide solid leadership at home and then radiate out to the World. Unfortunately, Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS. Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is. Sorry to say that but IMHO that how it will pan out. I pity the USA and the World.
/Edward scissor hands style on
How do you know this?
What do you mean by this? Do you mean because he is black?
William,
Which states are you considering swing states? Would they be the RCP toss up states or are you using another measure?
I beg your pardon, I had Georgia the wrong way around. Indiana is explained in the post: at present I’m only using polling from the past few days. I will eventually expand the range of polling I use to maybe a fortnight.
Julie, I pretty much followed Electoral-Vote’s lead.
And McCain & Palin would unite them… riiiiiiight
Remember George W Bush’s 2000 campaign mantra? “I’m a uniter, not a divider”, look how that turned out!
#4 The Show Must Go On
WTF?
LOL!
William
ecuse ignorance
but is there a chance of
1.obama winning mccains home state
2.is there an point(as such) that obama wins a record number of states
tanks
For the Hilary fan club. In-trade has Hilary at 1.5 in the race – currently coming third!
No. McCain is up there by around 10%
No. He would have to win all 50 in order to beat Reagan in 1984:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1984
She would be higher if Obama and McCain died.
Electoral-Vote has McCain leading 52-38 in Arizona, so I wouldn’t have thought so. Reagan won every state except Minnesota (and DC) in 1984 – I wouldn’t get too excited about Obama’s prospects of doing as well as that.
Nixon in ‘72 won 49 states as well.
Sorry ShowsOn,William
re point 2-I was referring to Obama as regards a democrat benchmark
supplementary:is arizona the safest state for mccain
Excuse me? Who in politics isn’t divisive to any extent?
Well then Obama is the man; in terms of the rest of the world looking at America, Obama is the uniter. McCain is just Bush-old.
My guess would be FDR winning 46 states in 1932. The next closest is I think LBJ winning 44+DC in 1964.
No. It is probably Utah, he is currently up there by about 30%
FINNS
“we even have a new Czarina who is sounding more and more like the old one”
yes & catlike too , also a chris c 20 posts an hour and foot soldiers but commonality does extends to both disinformation & th ‘ Gotti’ teflon don effect , but bailout changed it all & would hav done in reverse human nature
Ron, golden rule: talk about politics, not other commenters.
RCP now has Missouri in the Obama camp under its no tossup states map
…….. He is winning all of the tossup states (in their opinion) excepting Indiana at present …..
I bet Indiana falls to him under the no tossup map before the election, I’m changing my EV guess
………
I read something somewhere today that no Republican has become President without winning Indiana.
night, folks
I stopped reading after this line of utter BS
Actually, it was the last line! Good thing I stopped
Has John McCain been reading John Howards campaign notes for Howard tried this attack on the man tactic and it didn’t work so why would an intelligent man like McCain need such a tactic.
This in looking like a real Republican bloodbath, Middle America appears to be swinging really hard.
Oh not The Media again! It is always brainwashing everyone.
Mr Greenwald has a bit to say about McCains new tactics and he’s not very impressed. It’s sad that a basically decent guy like McCain has sunk so low.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/
I think he is trying to do to Obama what George W Bush did to you during the 2000 Republican primary.
Julie, can you please link to things rather than cutting and pasting large volumes of text.
Oi!! Not fair!
I’m stuck with Colorado as my “over the line” state, when Florida is looking good to do the trick – 60% on intrade
I would drop Maine and Washington.
Kerry won both comfortably enough.
Pretty damning indictment on the Democrats. Shame!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=exxVZTKq1vA
gee that NRCC plays it pretty stright. I do like an unbiased view of things.
Next GP can you give us a link from the Liberal Party web site saying Turnbull is a financial genius as proof that Rudd and Swan don’t know what they’re doing…
hey, we’re not alone!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24461769-5012572,00.html
ShowsON
I think mccain is close to drawing a line under arizona onwards.
methinks a handful of states is all mccain will end up garnering
i want to change my prediction from 326 to 348 juliem (pls)
GP, that video says that the Repubs saw that something was wrong in 03 right? Weren’t they in power in Congress then as well? If they wanted something done, couldn’t they have done it?
3
[The World needs a POTUS that will heal and unite America so that it can provide solid leadership at home and then radiate out to the World. Unfortunately, Obama, if he wins, will not be that kind of POTUS. Obama will continue to a divisive figure because of who, what and how he is. Sorry to say that but IMHO that how it will pan out. I pity the USA and the World}
Actually Finns, most of the world is saying they would prefer Obama.
Ok, things are officially getting stupid:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20081007/mccain-iran-contra/
The mud is now being flung thick and fast on both sides. (good for Obama for showing he ain’t going to be pushed around like some weak a*se John Kerry; but bad that he is – in a perfect world sense)
But going for McCain for links to Iran-Contra? Hell the entire US Government was linked to them, Reagan, Bush et al etc were in bed all the freakin way.
What next? Ollie North and McCain having dinner at Perugino’s?
Now they are looking for McCain to pwn Obama in tomorrow (Tuesday night US ).
I highly doubt it.
The problem for McCain is the electorate is well used to republican slander and mud slinging now. Just doesn’t have the same effect. Oh, and he is looking old. Real old.
Also notice the Tories in Canada are slipping. Majority Government looks a forlorn hope. However the Libs are tanking so its back to minority tory government.
No 41
Communism is a bad thing, Reagan was overwhelmingly popular thanks to his virulent anti-communist tendencies and I doubt Obama’s amateur attempt at mud-slinging will stick.
you have a strange definition of communism son.
It dosent need to stick. He is winning. Thats the point. McCains mud needs to stick and so far it aint.
Harper is getting into all sorts of trouble for idiotic plagiarism, including stealing a whole speech from our greatest PM, John Winston Howard:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081004.wharperplagiarism1004/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview
10
Finns, are you channelling Frank Sinatra or something.
I don’t believe I provided a definition for you to critique!
Obama’s lead is quite tenuous given how unpopular the current president is. McCain is certainly not out of the race.
Charity begins at home. if Obama cannot heal and unite his own country. He cannot hope to likewise for the World. He will be too busy fighting the bush fires in his own backyard.
I am continuously amazed at the density of the Obama supporters here. just because I criticise Obama, they automatically assume that I support McCain or want McCain to win. They are both duds.
I have said it too many times already, one more time wont hurt. the best candidate is not even on the ticket.
GP @ 47
Your chronological correlation with McCain may be blinding you, but Obama is romping home.
“It’s the economy, stupid”.
Yep death squads good; communism in any form bad.
That type of BS is what got America into the foreign policy mess it is now.
It’s why Vietnam was such a f*ck up of a war. It’s why they propped up Saddam (that was Reagan too wasn’t it?)
Just because I think the mud on McCain won’t really stick on this one doesn’t mean I think the policy was anything other than unadulterated shite.
Pretty much every government the USA propped up to serve as a “baulk against communism” was corrupt, sadistic and economically cruel.
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