As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).
| October 1-8 | Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV |
| Pennsylvania | 51.3 | 40.6 | 2552 | 21 | |
| Michigan | 51.1 | 41.3 | 531 | 17 | |
| Washington | 53.0 | 43.6 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 52.6 | 43.3 | 2160 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 51.1 | 42.2 | 3073 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.2 | 44.3 | 1531 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 46.8 | 42.2 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.0 | 46.6 | 500 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 49.3 | 44.9 | 6622 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 49.6 | 45.4 | 2891 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 49.9 | 46.2 | 1768 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 48.5 | 45.2 | 2110 | 9 | |
| Florida | 49.3 | 46.0 | 2250 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.6 | 46.0 | 3113 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.7 | 47.5 | 1000 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.5 | 48.7 | 1477 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 182 | 163 |
| RCP/Total | 49 | 43.9 | - | 364 | 174 |
As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.
UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.
760 Comments
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Strategic Vision polls:
Obama 54, McCain 40 in Pennsylvania.
McCain 50, Obama 43 in Georgia.
Strategic Vision (R)
10/5-7/2008;
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Pennsylvania – Obama +14
1,200 likely voters, +/-3
Obama 54 (up 7), McCain 40 (down 6)
Georgia – McCain +7
800 likely voters, +/-3
McCain 50 (down 2), Obama 43 (up 4)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/strategic_vision_pa_ga_1057.php
50-43 I think William
Can’t get anything right, can I. Corrected.
yes GG , always a chance
Also on Mumble who i agree is excellent , I wondr whether difference in osdds is Labor HAD to win about 16 seats to govern out of maybe a possible 20 good possibles , whereas Obama only has to win about 3 out out of say maybe a dozen possibles all of which he’s either leding or closely behind (WITH presently none of Obama’s blue seats in marginal terority)
Ron
I would agree with you except that McCain made such a big deal of “suspending” his campaign, going to Washington and helping make teh bailout deal that he can’t possibly distace himself from it now. He owns it. If he had stuck to his campaign schedule he might have pulled off what you suggest.
That’s two today… not enough Weet Bix this morning
Those Pennsylvania numbers have a massive 13 point shift in just 2 weeks. Yikes.
Ron,
Personally, I think Obama’s support is broad but not particularly deep. Won’t take much to swing a jittery electorate around.
This campaign has been epitomised by surges related to ephemeral issues. Who is to say McCain could not pull the proverbial rabbit from the hat?
History probably
Wll I’m suggesting perseption & spin , and th suspension would be ‘narratived’ into outrage & reluctance of doing his duty for whole economy but with anger in his hart that citizens monies went to th greedy
Hell i could tag line CEO Lethman Mr Fuld , disagreed with Democrat Oversite Chairman Waxman’s claim that he got 500 million rmuneration This is a direct quote: No says Mr Fulf thats not right , I got 60 million in cash remuneration ….and over last 5 years 250 million in other benefits
McCain: I share your disgust
Dario,
Aren’t we the pithy little penguin?
Any chance you can add to the debate or is that hope we cannot believe in?
Socrates, yes Mr. Market. Has anybody seen the real Mr. Market?
I think Kerry O’Brien was really spooked by his interview with Steve Keen last night. Tonight on 7:30 report, Kerry was virtually demanded that Rudd shows “unrestrained panic” and surrender.
HUH ?? ……
Not fair …….. that means I need to sleep on it …… gggrrrrr …….
bookmarking this and checking it again in 6 to 8 hours ….
William, you might want to keep an eye on this site as you are working Perth time, whatever the h*** is going on, (good or bad for Rep. or Dems) it might break before you go to bed …..
Er, if you say so
I’m sure we’ve been over this ground several times before. Candidates rarely come back from this far behind, this close to election day. Nothing’s impossible, but it’s damn close. History and Intrade are pretty decent judges.
If it was that bad for Dems (i.e. a new scandal) then it wouldn’t be the Republicans announcing it themselves, they would get their media buddies to do the work so they would be at arms length from it.
juliem
It’s more “evidence” about Obama and Ayers. I wouldn’t get too excited. The Independents are HATING the Ayers stuff and McCain has been advised to pull the ads linking Obama with Ayers.
Ron
Well I agree with you – thats spin! At this point I think Howard has a better chance of becoming POTUS than McCain. Reminds me I better get a good bottle of sparkling chilled for election day
#564 – dont tell me it’s the “Whitey Tape” of ma belle Michelle.
Socrates,
Why not , it is Melbourne Cup Day.
Intrade on Obama dropped to 64 when “news” was foretold but it’s back up to 74. Very curious.
Fins 536
I think one reason money market people exaggerate downturns is the self-referential fallacy: they stand to be one of the biggest losers and assume the rest of the world sees it as they do. Its not the end of the world, but its the end of their world.
GG
“Personally, I think Obama’s support is broad but not particularly deep. Won’t take much to swing a jittery electorate around.”
I absolutely agree with that , up to 20/9/08 voters were faced with Bush they detested approx 28% approval and a 72 year old ANOTHER Republcian and they wantd change …YET electon was almost a tie/close
This means after 7 months , obama was a very reluctant choice at best when he should hav on th aboce then already leading by a landslide
Opportunity is still there if McCain attacks on econics & th bailout monie going to th greedy But he needs to offset perseption Bush a Republican announced it…implication therefore it was a Republcian cause ..then McCain’s silly unpolitcal return to Washinghton making that more attached to Republcians seeing Obama initialy said no …and his public return implying he supported giving tax payers 800 billion away …then his subsequent lame economic attack efforts including Debates (him & palin) I would hav advised th reverse of all 5 of these actions
Window however is closing because voters hav not associated bailout with Obama AT ALL….and Pelosi in particular was quite clever in also making it Republican ‘owned’
And this bailout factor I feel is over riding presently voters STILL underlying caution for Obama and polls ar refelcting this …longer Polls go that way th more in concrete , but then US politrcs is so much razzle dazzle razamattaz new ’spin’ is always possible
Dario,
History tell you about what has happened in the past and averages tell you that if your head is in the oven and your feet is in the refrigerator, on average you are warm. The point is this is an unusual election because Obama is black, the campaign has been dominated by sexual politics and of course the meltdown in the financial markets.
Now you may want to hide behind pre conceived ideas of how these things play out and that is fine. However, there are plenty more twists in this thriller imho.
And, it would be nice to see a contribution without the derivative theme.
I told you both POTUS candidates are dud;
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14396.html
Do I need to say it again that the best candidate is not even on the ticket. They just dont feel their pains.
History also tells you what is achievable and what is not
No you don’t. But we’ve said it before… Kevin 07 wasn’t born in the US so he can’t run.
Obama was protecting a lead and needed to make sure he didn’t provide any smear misrepresentation material to McCain. McCain on the other hand had nothing to lose but was too restrained.
GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/05-08, 08; 800 LV 3.5%
Obama 48 (down 1)
McCain 45 (steady)
http://www.tarrance.com/results.cfm
I agree it was a dull debate. As to who won, That One or The Old One, I thought it was a draw but the most lasting impression was not verbal, but McCain leaving quickly without shaking hands.
Yeah Dario,
I’m glad they told that to the Wright Brothers.
Diogenes, I love you too.
“but McCain leaving quickly without shaking hands.” Why do that & imply you lost , and ar upset
FINNS
#575
“This is a moment history rarely sees — and both men blew it. ”
politco
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14396.html
FINNS
“Do I need to say it again that the best candidate is not even on the ticket. They just dont feel their pains.
Amigo , i think you ar obligated for historys to say it again…and again Nothing wrong in saying again th truth And yes they both blew it
You know i got savaged here for condemning Democrat & Republican congrss over there disgraceful first bailout defeat losing 1.5 valuable weeks of worlds time as Obamabots foolihly wanted to protect ALL Democrats …they DID blow it also
…but main game platyers th candidates hell history will record there vague general platitudeas as th markets go from ruins to ashs …in many trillions of losses , they blew it big time Amigo like Nero fiddling
The Montgolfier brothers had already achieved flight
TP,
Interesting point. Obama has been running the small target campaign throughout. McCain needs to change the narrative/blow up the boat. He’s got nothing to lose from here.
Dario and Dio
Perhaps a drinking game for election day – a drink for every swing state declared for the candidate of your choice? If you want to get really drunk you could watch Fox and drink for every time the blame the outcome on biased liberal media
Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/06-08,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Obama 51 (up 1)
McCain 41 (down 1)
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/08
Amigo Ronnie, you got savage for EVERYTHING. why do you bother to breathe at all.
Dario,
Was that when the next door farmer caught them with his daughter?
Socrates
I think even Fox has given up on McCain.
Finns
I’m planning on linking the photo of you on Machu Picchu wearing the “I was wrong, Obama won” T-shirt at the “other” site.
Hahahaha, yes but they were using rubber
Diog, with the Aussie battler at 67c. Machu Picchu is looking shaky at the moment. The choo-choo train might just stop at Cuzco.
Amigo Ronnie, you got savage for EVERYTHING. why do you bother to breathe at all.’
Even worse insult now Amigo , socrates has discriminately excluded from his free drinks he’s offering to only selected ones Still having that flag pole raising
Diogenes,
Bitch!
Ron (and others)
Feel free to drink up; its good for the economy as long as its Aussie brew. I just asumed you wouldn’t want to celebrate given your views on Obama.
Open to any better suggestions for POTUS election drinking games? I still think one for every Obama swing state should make me happy.
What rubbish Ron. IF the bailout is the solution, which is still a very debatable position, then the failure to pass it quickly is the fault of Bush and his administration which could not put together a coherent package and pursuade a majority of his own Republican reps. Remember, the presidential candidates have nothing more than the power of persuasion, neither is in office.
Earlier to-day there was some discussion about the way in which US mortgages are taxed.
There are a couple points which weren’t aired at that time, which may be worth considering.
Owner-occupant mortgages in the US are tax deductible, so I would expect that repayments on investment property would also be deductible. Afaik (not very far!) the crisis has arisen not because of investment property loans but from owner-occupier mortgages, particularly those which have been sold to people without a prayer of making the payments once the honeymoon interest rate period ends. There’s also been quite a bit of selling of the equivalent of redraw-type loans (using Australian terminology) where people use the equity in their largely or completely paid-off home to finance other expenditure. This works fine while the going’s good – the economy is prospering, incomes secure, unemployment low, and property values rising. However the s*** hits the fan, when the economy goes into reverse.
Many sellers of finance acted with cavalier disregard for the credit-worthiness of their customers, because the mortgages were frequently on-sold. This game of pass the parcel works so long as there’s some-one to act as the next recipient, but ultimately, it is certain to end in tears.
“Open to any better suggestions for POTUS election drinking games?
I still think one for every Obama swing state should make me happy.’”
Thats just blatant bias …against drinkers …why not one for every State no matter who wins it…that makes more drinks
574 Greensborough Growler – I think if you look at the recent history of the polling, and I’m talking about since it became the McCain Vs Obama show, you will find there has only been one “twist in this thriller” for McCain and that was after the Republican convention. Other than that Obama has lead McCain. Fact not fiction.
Diog, the trouble with these two POTUS candidates is that they dont have any sense of humour. btw, do they understand what “taking the mickey” means? Yes, life is very serious staff.
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