As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).
| October 1-8 | Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV |
| Pennsylvania | 51.3 | 40.6 | 2552 | 21 | |
| Michigan | 51.1 | 41.3 | 531 | 17 | |
| Washington | 53.0 | 43.6 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 52.6 | 43.3 | 2160 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 51.1 | 42.2 | 3073 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.2 | 44.3 | 1531 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 46.8 | 42.2 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.0 | 46.6 | 500 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 49.3 | 44.9 | 6622 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 49.6 | 45.4 | 2891 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 49.9 | 46.2 | 1768 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 48.5 | 45.2 | 2110 | 9 | |
| Florida | 49.3 | 46.0 | 2250 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.6 | 46.0 | 3113 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.7 | 47.5 | 1000 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.5 | 48.7 | 1477 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 182 | 163 |
| RCP/Total | 49 | 43.9 | - | 364 | 174 |
As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.
UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.
760 Comments
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Well Ron there are 50 States and I try to follow Aristotle’s golden rule
But knock yourself out!
Finns
I’m told it’s going to drop further. It’s all Cossies fault. Our high interest rates are falling and they’ve got further to fall than everyone else’s so money is going to be pulled out of Oz. Also our economy is heavily dependent on resources which really tank in a recession.
Socrates
You live in SA don’t you. I’m taking the day off for the election. Should be a great day for a few ales to cleanse the pain of eight years of Bush.
DC has 3 EV’s too! That’s 51 drinks
Dio
Yes we’re in the eastern suburbs and I work in town. If I can get the day off (unknown) I’d happily share some nice red shiraz for Obama. An end to Bush is worth a drink.
Finns
McCain must have a sense of humour to list “Weekend at Bernies” as his favourite film. The thought of Palin dragging a dead Macca around for four years must have been in his mind.
Obama has a quite dry sarcastic wit which is quite cutting but not very funny.
heh! The Republicans playing on the Intrade Contender markets again over their latest stunt, trying to give it momentum.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/macainonaughts.png
Guess that didnt work too well for them.
Oh no! The NRA has endorsed McCain!!! That was right out of left field… he’ll win now!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081009/ap_on_el_pr/nra_mccain
Socrates
At least that’s a known unknown. A drink at lunch at about 1pm would be about right.
Gary,
The “fact” as you so quaintly call it is that it is only in the last week or so that Obama has moved to a clear lead beyond the MOE in the polls. That lead is driven by the reaction to the finacial industry meltdown. As you correctly point out, McCain was recently ahead in the nominal lead in the polls.
Clearly, you have made up your mind. However, the current volatile situation does not preclude a swing back to McCain in the next few weeks.
Diog,
So where can you put your money into these days. All the asset classes are FCUK.
1. equity – ffffk
2. property – ffffk
3. commodities – ffffk
4. cash – ffffk, some even has negative interest rate
5. bonds – ffffk. who trust them
so all the monies have to be under the beds.
Possum
That was when McCain announced a “major event” would happen in the morning. There was speculation Palin would pull out, Hillary would replace her etc etc. It just turned out that McCain was going to run a 60 sec attack ad on Ayers and Obama being friends instead of the 30 second one which didn’t work (which his staff advised him to pull).
Dio
That sounds pretty good. I’m out of town tomorrow but I’ll check my work diary on Monday. Lunch should be fine. Better be off to bed; have to catch a flight.
night all
Finns
Gold
Finns,
Could be good time to take a position on ‘Burglar” futures.
Dio – this is the ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w
GG, i was just thinking about that “asset class” myself with a put option.
btw: how does it feel, to be a rolling stone, like a complete unknown?
So you think GG that things economically will turn around so quickly that those who turned to Obama because of the economic crisis will turn back to McCain? Wishful thinking there GG.
It’s the kind of talk we heard last year when Howard was behind by a mile
So Enemy Marsupial who denied th association with th terorist William now has a US TV add with detail of obama & Ayres , same info as I hav except my info is more detailed
…including th meeting was Obama’s to hav his first politcal contact with any politcal operatives to assist him when he first ran for th illinois Senate etc etc etc info i hav on there close long association
Obama on TV , ” William Ayres just a guy who lives in my neighbourhood”
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONfJ7YSXE5w
Th queston was always not that Obama is a terroist but his judgemnt , decency standards & convictions (th queston of McCain’s history is a SEPARATE issue)
Whilst th economy legitimately now dominates , it does not diminish what I’ve said above or previously about above POTUS credentials …and my judgement , decency standards & convictions Obama criticisms …no matter how much anti ron personal or otherwise attacks ar made as diversionary posts made by pro Obama supporters….nor that people feel a change from any Republican is desirable
Scratch, scratch
That’s the bottom of the barrel being scraped by the Repugs. Either that or McCain trying to get out of his coffin after he’s been buried alive. Either way, I like that sound.
Belgium is ranked 7th yet had a bank go bust last week!! Makes you wonder about the countries further down the very greasy pole!
With great respect to both Dario and gary, my posts are merley observational. In the physical world, a tsunami is presaged by a massive tide going out followed by the big waves of destruction.
Everyone seems to acknowledge the current world situation is relatively unique. However, like those people Obama described as “hanging on to their guns and religion as a crtutch, a lot of people seem to think that whaty ou see today is how it will play out in November.
I’m somewhat sceptical.
Diogenes , what part of th truthful facts disclosed in #619 did you object to
(seeing they directly go to a very long period post 1995 of Obama candidate with th terorist Ayres for POTUS re judgement , decency standards & lack of convictions starting with Ayres as one of his original politcal sponsors)
Comedian Al Franken leading in Minnesota Senate race:’
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_senate
You mean like McCain meeting with an “agent of intolerance” who blamed September 11 partly on Americans?
Finns,
It would be nice to have the chicken posters return to the roost because this time, no more Mr Nice Guy and I’ll tell em what I really think.
William has had it far too easy since he joined the corporate world and needs to earn his money. He needs some real angst in his life. I know where he can get some.
GG
I think in principal you ar correct , which is why I suggested an economic/bailout
’spin’ counter attack by McCain , seeing since bailout narrative of baiulout seems to be th driver and perseptions & therefore polls can be similarly reversed ….but time and reversing a lost narrative to your opponent & thereby polls entrenching makes it more very difficult , but not impossible …especialy with flakey US style politcal election mode
Rasmussen national daily tracking poll: Obama +5 (down 1)
Obama 50 (down 1)
McCain 45 (steady)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
609 and 622
GG You have stated several times that there is plenty of time for McCain to turn it around. But unless I’ve missed it, you haven’t offered any suggestion as to what issue he might use to do so. Sharp changes in voting intention don’t just happen for no reason. So what’s going to do it? .
Diageo/Hotline national tracking poll: Obama +6 (up 5)
Obama 47 (up 2)
McCain 41 (down 3)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_47_mccain_41_hotline_2.php
Sharp changes in voting intention don’t just happen for no reason. ”
Thats true , so my thoughts is based on tactics & ‘politcs’ & spin , rather than reel world of what did & should occur
US voters know there POTUS has powers and US voters also know there Congrss has powrs and passes legislation it initiates & Democrats control it , and its th latter that could be MCains get out of jail card
At th moment sharp voter change (in my gut opinion unsupported todate by polls admittedly) is solely th bailout outrage AND that perception both collapse & bailout proposal is Republican caused ..read McCain associate and Democrats read Obama innocwent
Reality is Democrat controlled Congress should hav enaced regalotry & prudential oversite legislation in alst 2 years AND Republcian contriolled Congress should hav done so in preceding 5 years from when CDO’s & CDS’s started…so thats where alot of blame reely belongs
But that reality was converted to spin irts Republicans fault..1/ by Bush initialy annoucing bailout (politcaly foolish) 2/ by Mccain’s campaign suspenson inplying Republcian ownership (politcaly foolish) 3/ by obama carefuly distancing himself from any responsibility (false he was a Senator in a Democrat controlled congrss…but very politicaly clever of Obama) and 4/ by House Democrats particularly astute Pelosi publcily making it a Republican ‘bailout’ (pretty disengenuous seeing Democrats controlled both Houses)
So spin has taken over reality that there is shared blame going back years , but poliytcs especialy in th plastic US is as much about perseption from spin as it is about reality ..and Democrats hav outsmarted Republicans on this issue including Obama over McCain & Pelosi over House Republicans
McCains move ? to counter attack on causes of collapse re Democtrat majority over last 2 years failing to enact preventative regulation Bills which is true (and dishonestly “forget” th preceding 5 years of Republcian House control) when they also failed to enact Bills , and counter attack on 800 billion bailout monies not going to citizens directly ‘with regret’ where it is going to greedy banks
McCains in polling trouble , collapse & bailout ar prime cause so thats his viable option
…he’s got nothing to lose and having already tacticly conceded both issues to Obama & th Democits & perhaps fatally ,
then despite possible economic implausibility of credibility or success , politcaly one tries to change th game by spin (as opposed to reality of what did occur , failure of Democrats & Republics over regulation because US psche thinks thats ’socialism’ a virus US peoples think (except Democrat “centrists”) on there beloved free enterprise almost unfettered free market sysytem)
and ps/ complicating shared Partys responsibility is neither Party always vote as one block vote unlike ‘oz’ …there broad ‘Churchs’ and differing pressure ‘interest groups’ per State
Possum and Diogenes, glad it wasn’t too serious
….. I got my first clue when I turned on the computer as The Age in Melbourne is my home page and they didn’t show any alarming articles even in breaking news 
….. [up in the middle of my night to get something to eat]
595 Socrates and others,
Can’t enjoy drinking games as the count itself is happening, I’ve got primary age school children coming home at 3pm [the then 11pm in the US].
I will put aside a nice bottle of red wine for consumption beginning after dinner
#635
And from that Huff womens same article:
“Where many leaders are two-faced; publicly kindly but privately feared and/or hated by people closest to them, Obama is consistent .”
Lets test that against words from his OWN MOUTH:
EXAMPLE 1/
Obama talking about millions of working familys in Pennsyvania & other mid west towns
And he is talking ABOUT them behind there back 3,000 kilometres away to affluent fund raisers in San Francisco on 5/4/08 , and reported in ALL credible US media
…………………………………………….“And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”
vs Aricle: “in the way he TREATS people, consistently KIND and personally HUMBLE ?
.
EXAMPLE 2/
To 300 million Americans in TV broadcast Phildelphia speech 18/3/08 2 comments:
(a) “I could no more disown him (Pator Wright) than I can disown my white grandmother.”. Obama placed his Grandmother equal to the divisive whaco Wright who he later did disown !
(b) “but a woman (Grandmother) who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe”
vs Article: “in the way he TREATS people, consistently KIND and personally HUMBLE” ?
Trash your own Grandmother…and publicly for shabby political gain …indecent
636, I respect your opinion, we are all entitled to our own. It is a free world. I also am glad that you don’t get an official vote in this election.
Btw, Frank Schaeffer is a man the last time I looked. Surprised you mistook him for a lady after you read the article.
Have a brilliant Friday Ron, I sure intend to
Dear Pollbludgers – does anyone know who this US Politician is?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/bnelson.jpg
GG, yes as a self proclaimed revolutionary Marxist, it’s time to tell them what i really think as well.
I have conspired with the markets. we have no confidence in both of the POTUS candidates. Both are duds, both will not be able to provide the kind of leadership that free World needs.
Exhibit A: The billions and billions and billions that have been thrown to “rescue” and ’stabilise” the financial systems appear to have no no effect on the markets. We will not budge, we will not buy. we will continue sell, sell, sell. We have passed our judgement.
Exhibit B: The best candidate is not even on the ticket. Bring back the Clintons, both Hillary and Bill. Dismiss the current candidates. Proclaim Hillary as the POTUS and Bill as the VP. Hillary will her fighting spirit and Bill feels your pains. That’s what the World needs now.
Exhibit C: The East is Red:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JJ10Cb01.html
Exhibit D: “William has had it far too easy since he joined the corporate world” – Have we not learned anything from the masters of the universe of Wall St who have lost their soul and then proceed to lose our World.
Possum, looks like Senator Bill Nelson of Florida. I googled using [ US Congress B Nelson]. It also turned up references to one of the Nebraska Senators but the picture in his case is clearly not the same guy.
http://billnelson.senate.gov/
I too am sceptical GG but not about the economy improving in the next few weeks but about things getting worse. As we have seen, the worsening situation is helping Obama not McCain. For everyone’s sake, including mine, I’d be very happy to see a complete reversal in the economy tomorrow but the reality is it won’t happen.
“Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of airtime on CBS, sources confirm.”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/9/104947/108/482/624967
Now that wouldn’t come cheap.
Russians taking issue with Palin’s claims of expertise in Russian affairs
……
http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/sais/nexteurope/2008/10/russians_palin_who.html
Ronster 623
I’m not disagreeing with any of those facts, just the interpretation. I don’t think the Ayers stuff is going anywhere for McCain. The Repugs who are rusted on love it but the Independents are sick of it. We’ve heard it all before and it wasn’t very interesting the first time. Ayers is currently a Professor who was never been found guilty of anything. And he is repentant.
McCain doesn’t have anything to say. He’s a desperate sad man who sold his honour and soul to the far right in return for their support. That very act left him totally entangled with them when the Crash hit. If he had’ve stayed a decent “maverick” he would have had more options.
Still, that’s what happens when you sell your soul.
WV has been a bit of a sleeper. But it’s awake now. Holy Moly.
West Virginia ARG McCain 42, Obama 50 Obama +8
639 Possum, if it is Bill Nelson then he sure sounds like a barrell of fun.
http://www.tbo.com/news/columnists/danielruth/MGB0ECTHX4F.html
Dio
Surely that is an outlier – he didn’t even really campaign there in the primary.
Plus wasn’t the whole thing about WV that it was largely rural, with little in the way of urban areas that generally support dems.
Still, if it means he’s even close, its fairly interesting! It just reiterates that the campaign is very much going the wrong way for the Maverick….
Steve, Rocket Rocket over at my blog pointed out that Intrade has that blokes picture as Brendan Nelson.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=615066&z=1223557924483
Bill in full flight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hL7vU_8iwPA&feature=related
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