As much for personal amusement as anything else, I will henceforth be doing my own polling aggregates for swing states. To account for the fact that state polling lags behind the nightly national tracking polls, each result is adjusted according to the change in the Real Clear Politics national average since the date of the poll (if the polling period was more than one day, the last date is used). For example, the only poll from Indiana was a 46-all result from October 3: the RCP average has since had Obama up 0.6 and McCain up 0.2, so into the Obama column it goes. The results are also adjusted so that greater weight is given to polls with larger samples. I’ve only been doing this for a few days, so at present the only polls used are those ending October 1 or later. This means I have no data for Wisconsin, which Electoral-Vote says was most recently polled on September 23 (I’m following their lead and giving it to Obama). As you can see, Obama currently has a clean sweep of the swing states: I’ll have to reconsider which ones to include if this keeps up. (UPDATE: I’m progressively updating this as new polls come in, so much of what I’ve just said is now out of date).
| October 1-8 | Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV |
| Pennsylvania | 51.3 | 40.6 | 2552 | 21 | |
| Michigan | 51.1 | 41.3 | 531 | 17 | |
| Washington | 53.0 | 43.6 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 52.6 | 43.3 | 2160 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 51.1 | 42.2 | 3073 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.2 | 44.3 | 1531 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 46.8 | 42.2 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.0 | 46.6 | 500 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 49.3 | 44.9 | 6622 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 49.6 | 45.4 | 2891 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 49.9 | 46.2 | 1768 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 48.5 | 45.2 | 2110 | 9 | |
| Florida | 49.3 | 46.0 | 2250 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.6 | 46.0 | 3113 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.7 | 47.5 | 1000 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.5 | 48.7 | 1477 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 182 | 163 |
| RCP/Total | 49 | 43.9 | - | 364 | 174 |
As was the case last week, tomorrow I will have an open thread for discussion of the presidential candidates’ debate, which will run independently of this one.
UPDATE: Polls from Time/CNN shift Indiana to the McCain column.
760 Comments
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That’s pretty funny!
Possum, perhaps intrade could use that clip to spice up their site a bit.
Gallup national tracking poll
10/06-08, 08; 2,761 RV 2%
Obama +11 (steady)
Obama 52 (steady)
McCain 41 (steady)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111052/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-41.aspx
Public Policy Polling (D) – Virginia poll
10/6-7/08; 917 LV, 3.2%
Mode: IVR
Obama +8 (up 6)
Obama 51 (up 3)
McCain 43 (down 3)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf
RCP has now moved Virginia from Toss Up to Leaning Obama. Bye bye McCain.
American Research Group
600 likely voters in each state, margin of error +/-4
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Minnesota:
Obama +1 (steady)
Obama 47 (down 1)
McCain 46 (down 1)
Missouri:
McCain +3 (down 2)
McCain 49 (down 1)
Obama 46 (up 1)
Montana:
McCain +5 (up 3)
McCain 50 (up 1)
Obama 45 (down 2)
New Hampshire:
Obama +9 (up 12!!!)
Obama 52 (up 7)
McCain 43 (down 5)
Ohio:
Obama +3 (up 9)
Obama 48 (up 4)
McCain 45 (down 5)
West Virginia:
Obama +8 (up 12!!!)
Obama 50 (up 5)
McCain 42 (down 7)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/arg_mn_mo_mt_nh_oh_tx_wv.php
Rasmussen state polls
Florida: Obama +3 (Obama up 4)
Indiana: McCain +7 (McCain up 5)
Michigan: Obama +16 (Obama up 11!!!)
New Jersey: Obama +8 (Obama down 5)
North Carolina: Obama +1 (Obama down 2)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussen_fl_in_mi_nc_nj_108.php
West Virginia has also moved from Leaning McCain to Toss Up on RCP. McCain is getting totally creamed on the state vote.
47% of voters concerned McCain wouldn’t see out his first term
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/09/ftl.health.poll/index.html?eref=rss_politics
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/09/mccain-keating-letter-im_n_133377.html
With what the Dow is doing at the moment – down another 6% overnight – this economic crisis is almost certain to be front and centre in the news right up to election day (and unfortunately, far beyond, one suspects).
The Troopergate court action to stop the investigation has been dismissed. Report to be handed down tommorrow.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24474565-23109,00.html
The McCain campaign is looking a bit like an aneurism getting close to critical.
Perhaps GM shouldn’t have killed the electric car. Their shares hit a 58 year low! And a few scientists are saying the crash will help reduce the burning of fossil fuels and give global warmimg a break. There’s always a silver lining.
GM shares fall to lowest level since 1950
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081009/business_us_gm_shares.html
Obama quoted in the Melbourne Herald/Sun today:
{I can take four more weeks of John McCain’s attacks, but the American people can’t take four more years of John McCain’s Bush policies]
How good is that? Hope they make it into an ad..
Intrade now at 364-174 on the ECV, with Obama 76.6 v McCain 23.4 to win
That’s why McCain pulled out of Michigan last week
PA is even worse. Obama is ahead by 13.8% there. McCains gonna have to pull out of there. VA is now 5.1% to Obama and McCain still won’t campaign there. He’s really lost the plot.
Probably good news for Obama I would think
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/09/AR2008100901290.html?hpid=topnews
Saw McCain’s latest one minute gutter attack on Obama’s patriotism and integrity. I reckon in Australia both McCain and Palin could be charged under our vilification laws with their none too subtle insinuations that Obama is not much more than a terrorist in disguise. Sooner or later, if they keep it up, one of their loony red neck supporters will start thinking he/she has to save the country by blowing Obama away. What could be more patriotic than that? Disgraceful.
I reckon Troopergate is not going to be kind to Palin tommorrow. Maybe it will only savage her husband, but even so that is not going to be good for her.
http://alaskadispatch.com/tundra-talk/1-talk-of-the-tundra/207-monegan-responds-to-todd-palins-statement-in-troopergate-investigation.html
There are two Senator B Nelsons in the Senate – Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Ben Nelson (D-NE). They are not related but are frequently confused.
(Are they possibly Bill and Ben the Flowerpot Men?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcF9JSxkUSE
We don’t know.)
Next year there will be two new Senators, Mark Udall (D-CO) and Tom Udall (D-NM). I’m pretty sure this will be the first occasion on which two cousins with the same surname have been simultaneously elected to the Senate, in place of retiring Republicans, from adjoining states – but I could be wrong. Mark is the son of the late Mo Udall, longtime liberal Dem Congressman and presidential candidate. Stewart Udall, Mo’s brother, was Interior secretary in the Kennedy Administration. Senator Gordon Smith (R-OR), who may well lose his seat this year, is a Udall on his mother’s side. They are all Mormons by the way.
Adam
That must be pretty rare, two Democrat senators who are Mormons. Utah is the reddest state in the US. Perhaps they are not as unelectable as we thought. I’m betting we find out in four years when Romney gets the Repug nomination running on the economic manager ticket during a recession/depression.
Dio 672
So you don’t think the Repug’s will give McCain another go in four years time? LOL
In this clip a McCain supporter at a rally calls Obama and Nancy Pelosi “socialists”, and McCain agrees with him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNYCo4wyNRA
Maybe he should be introduced to McCain’s policy of buying up all the bad mortgages in the whole of the U.S.
Oops I was wrong, Mark Udall was raised a Presbyterian. Tom is a Mormon. There are liberal Mormons, mostly outside Utah.
I saw footage of lots of commentators calling Bush a socialist and communist for proposing the bailout. Strange days indeed.
Yeah, like Mitt Romney BEFORE he started his campaign for President.
Utah last elected a Dem Senator in 1972 – Frank Moss, a moderate liberal. Kansas hasn’t elected a Dem Senator since 1932.
Romney is such an utter phony, I can’t believe the Repubs would nominate him. But who else will they have in 2012? Palin? Condi Rice?
I know who they will want:
Petraeus, D.
Yes, ShowsOn, for once I agree with you, he would be an excellent pick. If Obama turns out to be a mediocre president and the economy is still struggling, he would have good prospects.
Adam 679
[Romney is such an utter phony, I can’t believe the Repubs would nominate him. But who else will they have in 2012? Palin? Condi Rice]?
Let’s hope it’s Palin. That would be four more years for Obama for sure..
It seems the death threats against Obama may already have started.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24474688-954,00.html
Palin has a lot of natural political talent, so I wouldn’t write her off. She was obviously seriously underprepared to run this time. But by 2012 she might be a much better candidate. AK has a Senate seat coming up in 2010, currently held by the heavily damaged Lisa Murkowski. Maybe Palin should run for it.
Petraeus will be irrelevant when the US leave Iraq. Palin has been burnt too badly by her interviews. Condi is a relic of the past. Mike Huckabee is still positioning himself for another run. Rudy has been rejected too resoundingly to bounce hack. Maybe Pawlenty will put his hand up, although he doesn’t seem ready yet. The country could be in such a mess that the Dems brand stinks as much as the Repugs do now. This isn’t the world’s best election to win IMHO.
Um, W H Harrison, Andrew Jackson, Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S Grant, Dwight Eisenhower – none of them were irrelevant once their wars were over. Successful generals are hot polutical property in the US. Several others could have been president if they’d wanted, Sherman and Colin Powell being the obvious ones.
Surely you need to have a decent war going on to elect a general as POTUS. Eisenhower had Korea. Petraeus has said wants to do it.
President Petraeus? Iraqi official recalls the day US general revealed ambition
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/president-petraeus-iraqi-official-recalls-the-day-us-general-revealed-ambition-402195.html
In fact every Republican president from Grant to McKinley was a former Civil War officer.
I don’t think you will see Palin for dust after this election. She was aprt of a tactic that seemingly has backfired badly, even before the meltdown. People aren’t taking her seriously as a possible VP. As a possible POTUS, hardly.
Adam
I sit corrected.
If Obama wins and pulls out of Iraq, Petraeus can run on the line of “we were winning in Iraq but the cowardly traitor Obama stabbed our troops in the back.” It’s a powerful line and it’s worked before.
I actually think Palin appears to be a lot smarter a politician than George Bush is. I imagine she’d do a decent job at getting people to show up to vote at least. She will be damaged goods after this election however and I don’t imagine she’ll ever be a serious contender for presidential nominee after this campaign.
Colin Powell is actually a fairly interesting proposition.
I’m actually a little surprised at the resilience of the Republicans in current polling given the stench of the Bush Administration. I would’ve though anyone could beat the Republicans at this election and it’s not as if John McCain is a particularly exciting choice.
To be fair to McCain, she wasn’t his idea. The Republican Right went out of their way to kill the best chance they had to win, siding McCain with Lieberman, Tom Ridge, Arlen Spector. or even Mitt Romney. Some other centrist with some economic credibility.
I see this as their pay back for McCain’s “Maverick” years.
Even if Obama says the U.S. is going to pull out of Iraq on the day of his (probable) inauguration, logistically it would take 1.5 – 2 years to get that many people out of there safely.
By that time a bigger security problem for the U.S. will probably be what is happening in Afghanistan / Pakistan.
Powell will be 75 in 2012. He had his chance in 2000 but his wife talked him out of running.
Obama leading in West Virgina?!?
That is just insane.
Wasn’t West Virginia formed by North supporters in Virginaia during the Civil War?
Maybe it makes sense
No, it’s not insane; just ARG, although the two could be easily confused. I won’t believe it unless I see some other reputable polls showing something similar.
If Obama makes a reasonable fist of guiding the US out of these difficulties he will be re-elected easily in four years time. The American people are not going to forget very quickly which party they blamed for this current mess.
WV was one of the most reliably Dem states in the country until Gore contrived to lose it in 2000 – it even voted for Carter over Reagan in 1980.
Furthermore, the fact Bush got $700 billion out of congress means that at the start of his first term Obama would have extreme authority to get a huge cheque as well, i.e. the mother of all stimulus packages.
The old rules of the Government being the problem have been thrown out the window. (Which is why I think McCain’s campaign is running a completely counter-intuitive message).
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