I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.4 | 39.1 | 1031 | 17 | |
| Iowa | 54.8 | 39.8 | 692 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.3 | 38.6 | 3142 | 21 | |
| Washington | 53.9 | 42.0 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.4 | 41.6 | 2760 | 4 | |
| West Virginia | 50.9 | 40.4 | 600 | 5 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.1 | 41.7 | 2641 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 51.2 | 41.3 | 3673 | 10 | |
| Virginia | 51.6 | 42.5 | 3183 | 13 | |
| Colorado | 50.6 | 42.8 | 3441 | 9 | |
| Florida | 51.1 | 43.7 | 3125 | 27 | |
| New Mexico | 47.7 | 40.6 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.9 | 45.0 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 50.8 | 44.6 | 1768 | 5 | |
| North Carolina | 49.3 | 44.7 | 3736 | 15 | |
| Ohio | 48.5 | 45.1 | 3418 | 20 | |
| Missouri | 48.9 | 46.6 | 1600 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.6 | 47.4 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 158 |
| RCP/Total | 49.9 | 42.3 | - | 369 | 169 |
905 Comments
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just means 9000 initially attending were equitable and left at 1/2 time to let another 9000 in for th second 1/2 , hav you obama supporter no imagination
Hotline national tracking poll also unchanged today:
Obama 48
McCain 42
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_101408.htm
GWU/Battleground national tracking poll up 5 for Obama today, giving him a 13 point lead:
Obama 53 (up 2)
McCain 40 (down 3)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_101408_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
Obama now ahead on the RCP averages of 9 states Bush won in 2004, more than half of those with leads of 5% or greater
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
New thread.
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