I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.4 | 39.1 | 1031 | 17 | |
| Iowa | 54.8 | 39.8 | 692 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.3 | 38.6 | 3142 | 21 | |
| Washington | 53.9 | 42.0 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.4 | 41.6 | 2760 | 4 | |
| West Virginia | 50.9 | 40.4 | 600 | 5 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.1 | 41.7 | 2641 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 51.2 | 41.3 | 3673 | 10 | |
| Virginia | 51.6 | 42.5 | 3183 | 13 | |
| Colorado | 50.6 | 42.8 | 3441 | 9 | |
| Florida | 51.1 | 43.7 | 3125 | 27 | |
| New Mexico | 47.7 | 40.6 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.9 | 45.0 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 50.8 | 44.6 | 1768 | 5 | |
| North Carolina | 49.3 | 44.7 | 3736 | 15 | |
| Ohio | 48.5 | 45.1 | 3418 | 20 | |
| Missouri | 48.9 | 46.6 | 1600 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.6 | 47.4 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 158 |
| RCP/Total | 49.9 | 42.3 | - | 369 | 169 |
905 Comments
I wouldn’t trust the polls in Missouri too much if my sister’s experience is any guide. She was polled but when they found out she was voting for McCain, the pollster hung up on her with a polite “sorry, then, we don’t need your opinion” ……..
Not neccessarily. That might have been an internal Republican pollster only needing the opinion of uncommitted voters for example.
Anecdotal evidence is never a good reason to discount polls.
ltep,
Doesn’t matter too much in this case as I don’t hold her vote against her any more
; Obama will win the election without her vote and likely take Missouri, her state, along in the bargain 
cricket 378/7; Sharma 4/77 with 7 maidens off of 30 overs, Hussey 122/229 and Lee 1/6 ….. just had the drinks break of the afternoon session
Latest polling would seem to make it game,set and match to Obama. ReaClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight definitely agree on that likely result.
I’ve posted a thread on the Canadian election, if anyone’s interested.
juliem
The pollster was probably from Daily Kos.
William
I know it’s a quibble but you don’t have Iowa on your list. Bush won it last time so it’s a swing state. I know McCain has no chance there but his internal polling says Obama’s only got a low single digit lead there so McCain is still campaigning there.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/08/AR2008100803523.html
So AL #746 & Diogenes #749 say William Ayres wasn’t one of th USA’s worst terrorists , but you DO NOT say what William Ayres was , ..so you saying what for eg th 8h worst terrorist is not as bad as one of the worst terrorists
so that an uninformed reader is mislead by your play on words that William Ayres was not too bad reely , maybe even just a bad non terrorist
…to be Obama’s initial political sponsor from age 34 onwards as a qualigfied Lawyer from 1995 onwards & operator to assist him first ever to get elected to Illinois Senate , & involved politcaly and in directorships & other associations with Obama for in excess of next 6 years
Who is William Ayers? Bill Ayers and his “Weather Underground” comrades record
.
1969 ‘days of rage’ of Ayres & 300 members arsoned large parts of Chicago & attacked civilians & police
1970 , first March , planted bombs at New York City Police Headquarters
1971 planted bombs Capitol building
1972 , 19th May planted bombs at the Pentagon and other public buildings
1975 , 29th Jan , planted bombs under the Harry S Truman Building housing the Dept of State
1970 to 1975 planted bombs at several banks, police department headquarters and precincts, state and federal courthouses, and state prison administrative offices
late 1960’s -1970’s planted bomb totallting 30 thirty separate bombings aimed at destroying the defence and security infrastructures of the U.S.
1970 FORT DIX army dance , to bomb Fort Dix killing hundreds of young men & there girl friends & ONLY FAILED TO KILL HUNDREDS OF INNOCENTS/CIVILIANS only because th bombs pre exploded killing Ayres then girlfriend & 2 other Ayres own terrorist team , and FBI found th detailed Fort Dix bomb plans in th remains
And Diogenes said he didn’t kill anyone
And AL & Diogenes say he wasn’t one of th USA’s worst terrorists , AS IF disgenuously William Ayres was not too bad a bloke FOR OBAMA to hav from 1995 a long close political & other associations with
What for instance th 8th worst US terrorist is OK for Obama to be with ? Is at your disengenuous argument ….to camouflage terrorist Ayres as a Obama mate
Ron
You asked me to comment whether I agreed that Ayers was “one of the worst US terrorists”. I did not.
Has Ayers ever been found guilty of being a terrorist?
Has he spent time in jail?
If not, why not?
Frankly, I’d be more worried about Ayers being totally incompetent than anything else based on your post. How useless a terrorist can he be? 30 bombings and they only managed to kill three of themselves. I’d be embarrassed to be associated with such a loser.
416/7 @ tea day 2 ….. hussey 135/263 and lee 26/56 with 4 fours
Ron, I’m a bit confused. In your last comment, fourth last paragraph, you said Ayres was killed? I thought he was now an academic?
You expected sense or accuracy from a post of Ron’s?
Ah yes, Diogenes, back in the 70’s in particular, people weren’t very good at effective opposition to nasty, conniving, fraudulent, corrupt, lying, murdering bastards/regimes. We’re so much better at it now.
Good point, Dario. I get a bit concerned about him.
What about Jerry Falwell who said that Americans helped the 9/11 terrorist attacks?
I worked alongside a man for a couple of years, stayed over at his flat for several weeks whilst looking for accommodation for myself and my then girlfriend, socialised with him occasionally now and then and generally maintained contact with him during our time as colleagues and afterwards. He frequently asked me to go into a sideline business with him which I declined to do. A couple of years later he was convicted for importing several kilos of heroin into Australia in multiple importations. Evidence at his trial led to the conclusion that he had been doing so for most of the time I had known him.
Without access to confidential police records a person can have absolutely no idea of what is going on within their own family or close circle of friends, let alone the enormous web of casual aquaintances a person such as a community worker would have. To accuse Obama of wrongdoing in the Ayers matter is stretching probability to beyond breaking point.
I can understand the Republicans attempting to do so out of both desperation and habit, but from you, Ron it just makes you appear to be a vacuous chanter of slogans provided by the more desperate of the partisan conservatives. Come up with something new and concrete on the matter or give it a rest.
430/9, Hussey in with Clark, 4 shy of his 150 ……..
William Ayers terrorist SUMMED up his “Weatherman underground” group’s written ideology as follows: “Kill all the rich people. Break up their cars and apartments. Bring the revolution home, Kill your parents.”
Did Ayres regret his bombing actions:
William Ayers SAID “I don’t regret setting bombs , I feel we didn’t do enough ” Ayers told The New York Times in an article by Dinitia Smith published on 11 Sept. , 2001
.
William Ayers SAID in relation to the Fort Dix bombs that the bombs would have done serious damage (had they not pre-exploded killing 3 terorists including killing his then girlfriend )…
Ayers SAID “tearing through windows and walls and, yes, people too.”
In that interview he also boasted of the bombing many of th public buildingsI posted
.
Police found in th terrorists building blown apart by th FORT DIX bombs pre exploding , apart from 3 of th terrorists deceased , police found 57 sticks of dynamite, four 12-inch (300 mm) pipe bombs packed with dynamite, and 30 blasting caps The pipe bombs and several eight-stick packages of dynamite had fuses already attached. Also found were timing devices rigged from alarm clocks & maps , plus th Fort Dix plans that would have killed hundreds of innocents/civilians
.
Bill Ayers and his current wife, Bernardine Dohrn, spent the 1970s as fugitives running from the FBI
Both were listed on the FBI’s ten most wanted” in the 1970’s. In 1980 the two surrendered , but all charges against them were dropped due to FBI “improper surveillance” and for FBI “technical misconduct in th use of informants’ in those years in seaching for them
A technical law for th guilty , and Obama i assert gross poor judgement , indecent standards of asociation & lack of convictions …seeing as Obama was a Lawyer & info was all on th public record
Are they running from the FBI now?
Bummer. I was hoping he’d either get out for 141 or remain not out for that score. For the trivial minded 141 is the lowest score never scored by an Australian in a Test Match.
Hussey out next ball (from that post), Australia all out 430 ……
Ronster
Ayers denies those comments according to Wiki.
[Much of the controversy about Ayers during the decade since 2000 stems from an interview he gave to The New York Times on the occasion of the memoir's publication. The reporter quoted him as saying "I don't regret setting bombs" and "I feel we didn't do enough", and, when asked if he would "do it all again" as saying "I don't want to discount the possibility." Ayers has not denied the quotes, but he protested the interviewer's characterizations in a Letter to the Editor published September 15, 2001: "This is not a question of being misunderstood or 'taken out of context', but of deliberate distortion."
In the ensuing years, Ayers has repeatedly avowed that when he said he had "no regrets" and that "we didn't do enough" he was speaking only in reference to his efforts to stop the United States from waging the Vietnam War, efforts which he has described as ". . . inadequate [as] the war dragged on for a decade.” Ayers has maintained that the two statements were not intended to imply a wish they had set more bombs.]
OOOOOHHH, Obama is going to raise taxes. OOOOOHH, Obama wants a socialist health system.
Obama 1.22 in from 1.35
McCain 4.00 out from 3.25
Yeah stick it right up ‘em!
Could the Americans actually get it right? In your best Bruce McAvaney voice “can you believe it”.
Hmm, I suspect ronster, that you maybe weren’t around in the 60’s & 70’s. I personally am guilty, m’lud, of acts, that if the walloppers had actually caught me, would have landed me in the clink, in opposition, in my view, to a ghastly and unjustified war against the Vietnamese. Subsequently, I’ve had a few other narrow escapes from being taken for the interview without coffee being offered, mostly in relation to social justice issues. Maybe, you need to think about this a bit. Would you describe Nelson Mandela as a terrorist?
No, he’s a freedom fighter.
ShowsOn
According to the US, Mandela was officially a terrorist until he was taken off the State Department Known Terrorist List in June this year.
Sure, that was mainly because the A.N.C. received donations from the Soviet Union.
UK and German stocks just dropped 10%.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24474402-5006301,00.html
Centre,
Somewhere up there, MLK and Obama’s mum are smiling down on him. All we have to do now is just be patient and wait
Are all these “professionals” panic merchants? What would happen if your lawyer or doctor swung madly between good news and bad news? Can’t these people grow up and show a bit of backbone?
All of the evidence and facts are the same in the case.
One day,
Lawyer: That alibi evidence sounded really good. You’re going to get off no worries. We’ll sue them for wrongful arrest. Break out the champagne!
Next day,
Lawyer: That blood expert sounded really convincing. You’re stuffed. They’re going to hang you. Let’s try and get a plea bargain for like imprisonment. God, I’ve never had a client hand before.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7662572.stm
Yep, we are experiencing the worst world market crash possibly of all time. The question professionals are asking is how low can we go?
So what can happen? The ASX can fall below 3000. Stacks of people will lose their jobs. Wages will fall considerably. And property prices will follow and capitulate.
1983 was my first ever voting election and I remember Fraser saying that if Labor wins you should withdraw all your money from the bank and hide it under your bed.
Now I know what he was talking about. Only not with socialist ideology. But with neo conservative ideology.
Diogenes, I think we are seeing mass madness on the markets. Don’t know just what the G 20 mob are going to be able to do about a rampaging bunch of lemmings leaping off the nearest cliff.
So we NOW take th word of William Ayers who did all those bombings I listed OVER a New YorkTimes journalist quote in 2001 I don’t regret setting bombs; I feel we didn’t do enough”
BUT he has never denied saying in interview in relation to the Fort Dix bombs “tearing through windows and walls and, yes, people too.” NO he did not
So also we now dismiss th writen ethos of his Weatherman teroist group
“Kill all the rich people. Break up their cars and apartments. Bring the
revolution home, Kill your parents.”
HOW ABOUT taking th word of Ayers himself out of his own 2001 book to reconfirm th NYT article
Ayers reflects on whether or not he might use bombs against the U.S. in the future. “I can’t imagine entirely dismissing the possibility” That is no contrition
Centre, you’re probably a young one. Comfort yourself with this. The world will necessarily stop emitting so much CO2, so you and your kids will be able to breathe.
Juliem, I reckon he will make a great president. God knows, the American people, and the world for that matter, deserves it after that world class capital IDIOT Dubya.
What the Americans must learn after this crisis is that extreme right wing conservative ideology is no better than communism.
They are the same because they are both utopian. One says if you end ownership of private property, that magically you create a fair society. The other says if you let the market rule, you will some how create a fair society.
I also am suspicious of any political philosophy that places makes one thing of paramount importance, because it means that protection of human rights becomes a secondary concern.
Diog, the current worldwide financial crisis has very much to do with the lack of confidence the World and the Markets have on the two POTUS candidates.
At the moment, they are not inspiring at all, especially after the two debates. USA is scorching and the World gets burn along the way while these two just Tweedle Dee, Tweedle Dum along. Showing no sign of urgency or understanding and providing no leadership or solutions. I pity USA and the World.
Here, here,Shows On
H”S”O, the rampaging bunch of lemmings are not causing the market madness. It’s the professionals.
Agreed, Centre, the professionals are the lemmings.
Ron
which one is guilty
1.ayers-acquitted by the fbi
2.“Palin pre-empts state report, clears self in probe”
hehe
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby daily tracking national poll:
Obama +5 (up 1)
Obama 48
McCain 43
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49911I20081010
Finns
I know you. There’s no way that’s true. You’re quite enjoying it. China is buying up the world as we speak. We’ve got a Mandarin-speaking PM. Asia is the place to be. China isn’t going to tank. It’s growth will drop from 11%pa to 8%. 80% of their economy is internal. We’ll all be wearing Red soon.
Ronster
Haven’t you seen those studies? Journalists are less trustworthy than politicians and imbecilic terrorists. I still maintain that most drug dealers are more honest than journalists.
Ayers was acquitted only on a technicality. Every knows he did it, and indeed he doesn’t deny that he did it, or regret doing it. In other words he’s an unrepentent terrorist. Not that he matters. The real question is: when did Obama learn about Ayers’s past, and what did he do when he did learn it? He’s dodged this question all year.
Dont laugh. Japan is really in deep pile of hsit. The sick man of Asia, has been and getting sicker.
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Money/Story/STIStory_288164.html
“China is buying up the world as we speak”
I know they’d be prepared to pay as much as $80 a share for BHP lock and stock if they were given the all clear.
Adam
Obama gave an interview on Ayers today.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Obama_on_Ayers_I_assumed_he_had_been_rehabilitated.html#comments
That’s not the real question. The real question is why doesn’t McCain have anything to say.
Any non Obamabot reading my posts #619 & #745 prior thread and #9 , #20 and #35 colectively can readily see th MOUNTAIN of public evidence on William Ayers …
and your ‘playing with words’ :
denying first that William Ayers was not one of worst terorists , and then
.
that Ayers meant terror death & ‘didn’t kill anyone’ (Fort Dix innocent hundreds oh so lucky ) and
.
that William Ayers hasn’t recanted ,
.
in th face of such masive information shows your total partisan Obama bias , and then when my evisence left you in a corner even to protect “th name” of & take th word of a terrorist… ALTHOUGH despite his own book’s admission !) ,
for mine you hav no credibility
McCain has obviously been told not to raise Ayers himself, because then the Dems will hit hom over his links with Charles Keating.
But that’s not really relevant to the issue of what Obama’s association with Ayers says about Obama’s judgement.
A to Obama’s associations and lies of his associations , i will be detailing those …plius other Ayers & others quotes
I wouldn’t say Ayers was “one of the worst terrorists,” but he was a terrorist, and it was only luck that he didn’t kill anyone. He was certainly reckless about the chances of killing people. And he has never expressed any regret for those actions.
So the question is still not answered: when did Obama learn these facts about Ayers? Why did he not sever his connection with him when he learned them?
OOOOHHH, Obama is a terrorist. Don’t vote for Obama.
I’ll tell you who the real terrorists are between Bush and his crony nutso right wing repugs!
AS to Obama’s associations and lies of his association WITH Ayers himself , i will be detailing those …plius other Ayers & others quotes
Diog, it’s not me but Mr, Joseph Needham.
http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11496751
Title: The Man Who Loved China (USA& Canada) – Bomb, Book and Compass – UK
Author: Simon Winchester
Genre: Biography
Written: 2008
Length: 265 pages
http://www.complete-review.com/reviews/winchs/needham.htm
Imagine if it was learned that McCain sat on a charitable committee in Arizona with a man who had been a member of the Ku Klux Klan in Mississippi in the early 60s, had taken part in the bombings of Black churches, had never expressed any regret for tyhose acts, and who was on the record as saying “he regrets he didn’t do more” to stop civil rights. Do you think the media would give McCain a free pass because he said (a) he, McCain, never bombed any churches, and (b) it was all a long time ago, amd (c) he “thought this guy had been rehabilitated”? Not likely. The media would CRUCIFY him.
Adam
McCain did mention Ayers today.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93ND1C01&show_article=1
Ron must be really annoyed that McCain has taken Wright off the menu, as are many rabid Repugs. Personally, I love the stench of fear dripping off the wingnut cretins from the far-right. It smells like…victory.
Panic attacks: Voters unload at GOP rallies
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14445.html
Ron, could you please stop using terms like “Obamabot” and “Obamarotic”.
But the fact is that virtually everyone in the mass media in the US hates Bush and the Repubs so much that they are not going to let ANYTHING get in the way of Obama winning this election. So Obama is just being given a free pass on Ayers, as on everything else.
Close… but of course its being ignored
http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/steve_chapman/2008/10/mccain-has-his.html
Taken you this long William?
and this… but that is being ignored too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1ouNTqsqjo
Reading Ron re: Ayers is so eeirly similar to reading Piers re: Heiner. Wishful thinking, of no electoral consequence
“Imagine if it was learned that McCain sat on a charitable committee in Arizona with a man who had been a member of the Ku Klux Klan in Mississippi in the early 60s”
this is 4 years to 2002 , but then additionaly there ar other associations as well , also quotes from 2 paerticipants at th original William Ayers home approval of Obama
CENTRE
I hav nebver said Obama is a teroist , and perhaps you missed my #619 and #745 where specificaly I said he was not BUT was is relevant is not only th assocaions that were long and varied with Ayers but Obama’s lies denying any asociation at all I’ll quote them in due course
Perhaps you misunderstood my lingos…some say not my strongest point ..like saying one of worst terorists’…well read my #9 and I’m not sure reely of Ayers terorist “ranking” so so thats my term but if somone wishs to rate him 8th worst , or 14th worst …my judgement standards & convictions argument still holds no matter if 8th or 14th or whatever BASED on Ayers record
Imagine if McCain left a handicapped wife for the daughter of a beer baron worth $100M who turned out to be a drug addict who stole narcotics from a charity which provided cheap drugs to disadvantaged people and who escaped charges after McCain tried to ruin the person who blew the whistle on her. Would the media give him a free pass?
Liddy is a nutter, but he never planted any bombs, and he did four years in prison for his crimes. Ayers has dodged the law on his. I agree nevertheless that McCain should not associate with him. But at least McCain is open about this, in his usual contrarian way – he doesn’t dodge and waffle like Obama. Obama’s dominant political characteristic is evasion. He has dodged and wriggled around every tough question, about himself or his policies, all year. He was still doing it in the last debate. That’s why, although I think McCain’s campaign has been disappointing, and my opinion of his judgement has gone down, I still am totally unconvinced that Obama is fit to be President. If I was an American I would now probably not vote for POTUS on 4 November.
Dio
thats one wild fantasy you span out there……….I hope?
Andrew, I agree it will be of no electoral consequence, because of what I said at #61. Obama could turn out to be Jeffrey Dahmer in blackface and it would be of no electoral consequence.
I knew you’d be able to justify it somehow. And the USCWF?
What complete and utter tripe
Gusface
Every word of it true. McCain is a creep, which everyone in the US can see now.
A Tangled Story of Addiction
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/11/AR2008091103928.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008091103947&s_pos=
Ah yes Dio, but he DOESN’T PAL AROUND WITH TERRORISTS SO IT’S ALL OK!!!
Adam
If Obama was Jeffrey Dahmer, he wouldn’t smell so hot coz Dahmer was knifed to death in jail a few years back. Incidentally, one of Dahmer’s victims was a black 14 year old who escaped from Dahmer’s apartment and was found by the police. I won’t describe where he was bleeding from. The police kindly returned the boy to Dahmer’s apartment and passed it off as a boy-boy thing.
Pretty much all the election projection Websites like electoral-vote.com show Obama over 270 electoral votes. Even very overtly Republican Websites like Real Clear Politics and Election Projection have Obama at 277 and 364 electoral votes, respectively. In contrast, MSNBC and CNN have Obama at 264 and the New York Times has him at 260. Why is this so??
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=16AE5E72EE66F64BCDA37B4B70262523?diaryId=8971
Ron, I was not specifically implying that you said that Obama is a terrorist.
But the whole point of the dirt digging and mud throwing is to portray Obama a terrorist.
He was a Loatian, not Black.
L a o t i a n, tsk
What we reely hav with William Ayers (and with so many other of Obama’s seedy associations) is Obama’s judgement & convictions exposed …followed by a pattern of Obama lies on that association & if nailed a point of it he just changes th lie
Both th US Liberal Media is so desperate to get rid of Bush and so desperate to get a black Harvard ‘progressive as POTUS , they ar prepared to ignore anything adverse about Obama on charater
Then when Obama is exposed on no core ‘left’ policys , Liberal Media still ignore
Then when in June Obama ditched numerous “progressive” policys for politcal gain , Liberal Media initially complained then recommenced ignoring these as well
Liberal Media hav now been reduced to supporting a plastic man who lies & stands for little …other hating Bush & that Obama is a Non Bush and a Non Republican
and so ar “Obama-rusted” here
And again the usual suspects resort to name calling and ignore McCain’s clear indescritions to have another Obama bash. BOOOOOORING. McCain’s toast. Deal with it.
Diogenes, Adam, Ron & others;
Don’t know if this link has been put up yet or not. This article explains why Ayers is a non issue.
I am hardly responsible for the views and opinions of other PB’s out there, am I? Don’t think so, yet we all chose freely to associate with each other in this forum.
Think about that folks and give the next POTUS a break already.
URL for article – http://poligazette.com/2008/10/09/why-i-give-obama-a-pass-on-ayers/
Dario, McCain may be toast, but that’s not really the point. Given the record of the Bush administration and the current state of the economy, it is amazing that McCain is ahead in any state at all. But it is still legitimate to point out that Obama has managed to win first the nomination and now the election by a process of systematic obfuscation of both his biography and his policies, and by avoiding any close questioning about them, with the active connivance of most of the media. Obama is coasting to victory merely by virtue of being a Democrat in a Democrat year. Both his character and his intentions are still total mysteries.
Adam @ 70,
I’m shocked. And I went back to read it four times to make sure I was reading it correctly and also quoting the correct number message.
Hope William sinbins that comment. What were you thinking? Shame on you.
Adam
“Obama is coasting to victory merely by virtue of being a Democrat in a Democrat year. Both his character and his intentions are still total mysteries.”
if I substitute Rudd for Obama and Labor for Democrat it sounds just like a milne,shanahan et al piece from last years election.
double shame on you!
Julie, are you shocked that I mentioned Jeffrey Dahmer, or that I used the verboten word bl*ck?
Somehow I don’t think Obama will care what Adam’s opinion is on how he wins, if he wins
Dario, indeed not. It’s a pity you share his cynicism. Winning is all that matters, is that your position?
I still think everyone here is overestimating the American public and understimating McCain.
Wasn’t it true that one of Rudd’s ministers wrote alleged gangland murderer Tony Mokbel a reference? Wasn’t it true that Rudd had dinner with oooohhhh Brian Burke?
There are people all over the world suffering over this financial crisis and corporate executives are paying themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses regardless and you are worried about who Obama may have mingled with 150 years ago?
The republicans must be SACKED and never to be voted back in again for generations and generations.
Adam
I read a National Review article (see I do read what the other side says) which said that if there was a Nobel Prize for Plausibility that Obama would win it easily. He’s Mr Plausible, soon to be President Plausible.
SNIP: Personal attack deleted – The Management.
dario
the reference was more to adams logic as opposed to whether Obama cares what Adam thinks.
I never thought I’d see the day when the Master of Pragmatic Politics said this! (And I mean that as a compliment).
SNIP: Response to deleted comment deleted – The Management.
Precisely
Hahahahahahahaha. Be prepared for a great new clip of Palin coming soon!
http://steveyoungonpolitics.com/the-stupidest-political-move-in-history-palin-to-drop-puck-at-philadelphia-flyers-opener/
Juliem , you made a post about Obama & William Ayers that repeats false Obama talikng point’ sites & pro Obama rags like Daily\kos & Hugg womens and demonstrates you hav no knowledge of Obama’s associations with william Ayers as you’ve done no research …..thats th problem of rusted on Oabma supporters , relying only on Obama biased info sites
Ron, I take “Hugg womens” to mean Huffington Post. What’s with “women’s” exactly?
A shadow minister’s staffer wrote a reference for Mokbel without knowing who he was. MPs’ offices do this all the time – or they did then anyway. The MP very gallantly took the rap rather than blame the staffer. I’m not sure how this is supposed to reflect on Rudd.
Rudd went to a dinner Brian Burke was at, along with lots of other people – not quite the same as “having dinner with him.” Anyway associating with Burke was a bipartisan failing. And Burke may (or may not) be a crook but he’s never been a terrorist as far as I know.
Adam says:
Stop right there. This is nothing but a strawman.
Paul Begala discovered exactly such an association and decided it wasn’t worthy of inclusion in his anti-McCain book!
So this is only an issue because it was an association to a ‘terrorist’? And McCain’s USCWF links then? Lemme guess… not ‘terroristy’ enough?
Yes. And not a ‘terrorist’ with quotes, an actual real live terrorist, you know, one who planted bombs in buildings.
What is USCWF?
a dinner with or more accurately in same room as a crooked businessman (Rudd/Burke) is suggested as 1/ equating a crooked businessman (Burke) equal status to a repeated Terrorist (Ayers) and who would that seriously …
and more importantley 2/ a one only dinner (Rudd/ Burke) and 8 years close multiple asociationS (Obama/Ayers )…and what equating th 2 “relationships as th same is plain nonsense , Obama supporters arguemebts ar now just hitting key pads just so there “appears” to be a “rebutal”
.
You know I posted alot of info in #9 , #20 and # 35 that William Ayers 1/ was a terrorist and 2/ had not recanted
Yet NO Obama rusted supporters can even acknowedge that , before one even discusses Obama’s asociation with william Ayers , Obama rusted supporters reely lacks complete objectivty for there candidates failings on charater , policys and his lies
And is completely clouded by emotional fervour to hav no Republican after th Bush fiasco , and hence william ayers is amnother of th Obama rusted denial of reality as if it does not exist And th US Liberal hav followed suit
Both candidates ar duds , that would be a good objective starting on evidence (athough thats why I declared as informal a a month ago)
Prehaps if you followed some of the links posted several times you might find out, but given that like Ron you only seem interested in rooting out Obama’s associations I doubt you will.
Ron
Ive been on the FBI,CIA website
no mention of ayers,
nada,zilch,zero nothing
please supply a link that defines ayers as a terrorist
Rasmussen tracking poll: Obama 50, McCain 45.
Just maybe this is why people don’t take the Ayers thing as seriously as you do Ron.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/02/obamas_weatherman_connection.html
Diageo/Hotline tracking poll: Obama 48 (up 1), McCain 41 (steady).
So Rasmussen unchanged, Hotline and Zogby both up 1 for Obama. The negative campaigning doesn’t seem to be having much of an impact on a national level so far.
..and GWU Battleground up to Obama +10
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_48_mccain_38_gwu_1007.php
Correction on GWU Battleground, its Obama +8. Pollster.com seems to have the wrong numbers.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_101008_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
btw, that GWU Battelground poll is up a whopping 5 points for Obama from yesterday
Doesn’t that one tend to be all over the place?
Or does it have a smaller tracking ‘window’, and is thus detecting a positive influence from Obama’s debate performance?
Yeah, its a much smaller sample than the others (800 vs 3000)
What drugs is the McCain campaign on?:
Why would McCain or Palin bother spending ANY time on conservative radio when they are so far behind in the polls? They need to appeal to independents and centrist voters. I don’t understand how preaching to the converted will help them win from here.
Their campaign will go down as the worst since Bush I, or maybe since Jimmy Carter’s re-election campaign.
Market tanks again, Obama hits 79 on intrade.com
Obama rusted supporters hav been shot down today with infoirmation supplied in posts #745 other thread ,#9 , #20 and #35 demonstrating William Ayers is a Terorist & has not recanted …so they hav initialy avoided th subject , then lamely denied Ayers is a terorist , then well he’s not a reel bad terorist ! , then lamely just pretended Ayers did not exist by just then ignoring William Ayers ….despite th mountain of info supplied….
… then next ridiculously tried to tie Brian burke to Rudd one only dinner in th same room as if its th same as Obama/Ayers multple close relationships over many years (well #104 easily demolished that)
..and now what , wishing to define what is a terorist , well if posters want to say th actions listed in #9 , #20 and #35 do NOT constitute a Terorist then just say so !!
or ar Obama defenders afraid to say they ar or ar not actions of a terrorist
and I await let me know whether those actions constitute a terorist or a non terorist in your opinion
Obama rusted supporters credibility could hav been somewhat saved by acknowleging my posts info …but then yous knew where that was going to lead (with quotes from me )…yes to Obama (& Obama’s questionable judgement , decency standards & lack of convictions) Would hav been better t say notwuithstanding he is still better than mcCain but Obama rusted on fervently believe in Obama’s character perfect , non questionable associations , poor policys & convictions
That Obama supporters anti Bush fervour and anti republican zealotary clouds all else including objectivity & impartial readers may see that (and yes as I’e said McCain is a dud also but that is more obvious)
GARRY BRUCE
Well think your a different Obama supporter frankly a ar a number of others compard to fervent Obama rusted who post here regulatrly So far my posts hav been falsely challenged by Obama rusted today on what William Ayers was & what Wlliam Ayers has since said since 1994
So I haven’t got anywhere near discussing th nexus etc of Obama/Ayers and frankly that link is very shallow on info on it & in many respects void on it altogether Perhaps I’ll get to that info , however as I said to Centre my arguments ar based on Obama’s questionable attritubes thats partly (apart from Obama’s poor policys etc) why I don’t suport Obama….
nor indeed don’t support McCain either( McCain also has some poor attritbutes i admit but they ar differnt ones also) & don’t like McCains poor Republican policys & ‘right’ ideas
I acknowledge your posts Ronster; I just don’t a) care about them or b) find them very convincing.
ShowsOn, I think some of it might have to with not only convincing them that they’re better than Obama, but they’re so good that it’s worth taking time off work and actually bothering to vote.
What’s the deal with those people in the gallery who applaud when the bell rings on Wall Street?
Yeah, well they are pretty screwed if they are trying to appeal to their base at this point.
Maybe they were relieved the market didn’t drop by 20%?
I have always thought it would suck if you were the person who ‘closed’ the market on a day it dropped by a record amount. Is there anyway to say “thanks for the honour, but no thanks.”
I think what happens is that every day someone else from the business community gets to ring the bell, and it’s kind of a big deal. So they invite all their friends and they clap and cheer as they open the trade.
It’s tradition. They get someone new in to open the market every day. Usually high achievers or famous people. Not sure I’d want to be invited at the moment…
Thanks for clearing that up for me.
I think Costello did it once.
The grim reaper should be the next one up.
And if you listen to this guy Paul Krugman the grim reaper will be the next one up to ring the bells if something isn’t done in the next few days.
The consequences of Lehman’s fall were apparent within days, yet key policy players have largely wasted the past four weeks. Now they’ve reached a moment of truth: They’d better do something soon — in fact, they’d better announce a coordinated rescue plan this weekend — or the world economy may well experience its worst slump since the Great Depression.
Let’s talk about where we are right now.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/opinion/10krugman.html?hp
121,
They always cheer at the bell closing WallStreet for the day. This isn’t peculiar to the current trend. It has always been so as far as I know.
McCain won’t win but if ….
William,
When a company becomes publicly listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the custom is that they get to ring the bell to open the days trade. I know this because my company became publicly listed just over a year ago and we all got to watch video footage of our CEO ringing the bell.
It’s also used for product launches and PR shoots by many companies, and sometimes charities.
Ron
Isn’t being a terrorist illegal, ie. the police come and lock you up with or without a subsequent trial? How is it then that Bill Ayres is not in jail? In fact, has he ever been tried and convicted of terrorism?
And what is the criteria labelling him as one of America’s worst terrorists? No. of deaths? No. of people fearful for their lives? No. of years on the run?
And what terrorist supporting actions or statements has he made since the mid 90’s?
It’s about time we put some perspective on this fetish you appear to have with Obama and Ayres.
Ron
Posted Saturday, October 11, 2008 at 1:32 am | Permalink
“Obama rusted supporters hav been shot down today with infoirmation supplied in posts”
So this terrorist has never been to jail, further in the period in question the national guard actually shot some students, something I doubt the average American likes to be reminded of.
And this nonsense is what the McCain camp expect to get re-elected on. They are truly stuffed.
How dare you contradict Ron!
Ron
I have often agreed with your posts in the past but I think you have gone too far with the Obama/Ayres thing. You keep repeating the same points over and over again. They are invariably the standard repubican talking points being used in the US campaign. I was a Clinton supporter and recognise that both McCain and Obama have deep personal faults. To those who say that teh best candidates on both sides aren’t runign I would agree. But there seems no balance in your position; you just find any way to attack your target, and ignore any criticism of your preference. There is no point engaging with anyoen whod oes that, so this is the last time I’ll be commenting on your posts before the US election.
So lets put all this aside. The POTUS race must elect not just a person, but an administration that can deal with the current problems of the US and the world. I think its fairly plain that the MCain/Palin (Gram) is both intellectually and ideologically unable to do so. Obama can’t either, but like Bill Clinton, he knows his limitations and has economic advisors in tow who can. I think that makes it a fairly simple choice, in favour of Obama. The clear majority of independant voters have formed a similar view over the past few weeks. Obama will win, and McCain lose, whether rusted on republicans like it or not. Given the abuses of power that party has been responsible for over the past 8 years, I think that is a good outcome for democracy.
juliem
Those 32% less likely to vote for Obama because of Rudd are the Repug base. It’s the Independents who matter. And they hate this Ayers stuff. This is from the Politico article about how ugly the Repug rallies are becoming as the fascist cretins vent their frustration that they are going to lose to a black liberal.
A wise move
Precisely. Why McCain isn’t attacking Obama on economic issues (whether he has a percieved weakness there or not) I just don’t understand.
Now they are trying to link Obama to a community voter registration group ACORN who had a guy busted for 100 dodgy registration forms or something. More of the same tenuous stuff… I can’t see it going anywhere.
Further to my prevous post, upon reflection, the current credit crisis illustrates the folly of the Bush administration’s aproach to government. First there is cronyism, shaping rules and policy tosuit friends and backers, on the assumtion that there will always be enough fat in the economy to cover this loss. Sometimes, like now, there is not enough fat to cover the loss and real damage is done. Second, the move towards unilateralism assumes that policy can be dictated to others without consequence. This reduces the ability of the world to reach commonly agreed solutions. For international trade adn finance commonly agreed solutions are needed. Everyone is eventually made worse off when powerful nations go down the unilateral road. Whether or not Bush created this crisis (I think he was partly responsible but not fully) he has created a situation which makes it much harder to fix.
On a brighter note, this crisis does bring opportnities. There will be a much needed overhaul of corrupted financial systems, including rating agencies, financial fees, salaries for executives and financiers, and interest rates returning to what is reasonable for average home owners. The need for governmetn investment to stimulate teh economy also creates the right time to invest in some of the solutions to our long term problems, such as water infrastructure, public transport and clean energy.
Get this… now the McCain camp is defending those supporters who yelled out “kill him” etc. Freaking unbelievable.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/10/1529529.aspx
What a surprise! John McCain’s drug addicted thieving wife has continued to work with Keating. Remember the reason she became a drug addict was because of the stress of the Keating 5 disclosure about her husband. McCain is reaping what he’s sewn. Now we know why she refused to disclose her tax returns.
http://washingtonindependent.com/11806/cindy
Dario
Yes that is indeed disturbing. I find uncomfortable parallels with Netinyahu’s pandering to extreme right wing Jewish groups in the lead up to the assasination of Rubin in the 1990s. Nobody then would have said Rubin was going to be shot, but there were enough crackpots in Israel for that assumption to be wrong. There are certainly enough crackpots in the US to be concerned.
It’s just pandering to their base and alienating everyone else. With the diminishing Republican registrations that is just a recipe for a landslide, and a total loss of credibility…
The Repugs are sending Palin on the “Hate Talk Express” bus through WEST VIRGINIA. At least someone believes that ARG poll. We need to send Hillary out there and they can go mano-a-mano.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/10/palin-schedules-bus-tour-of-west-virginia/
Dario,
I read an article today describing McCain’s problem along these lines. The reporter/blogger described it as populism vs policy. I.e if McCain had chosen policy (lined himself up with conservative and Reaganeque ideals) he would have much more of a leg to stand on than choosing populism (claiming himself as a maverick and out for change in Washington). I’m not convinced that the policy approach would make any difference in the polls except perhaps to bring them closer and make us lefties more worried. In the current economic climate, the Republicans are screwed any which way they cut it.
http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2008/10/10/populism-and-policy/
Ronster
Read it and weep. Andy at electoral-vote agrees with me about RCP being openly McCain supporters. And you have always said he was fair. God I love being right!
It is infact a good sign that the reougs are reverting to Ayers-type attacks because 1. it alienates the independents and undecideds
2. it shows they have NOTHING left to argue
3. Obama has been through all of this in the primaries and won
There’s a good article on EV as part of that. They question why the independent sites all have Obama winning yet the “liberal” MSM sites don’t. It’s awfully like the last election here.
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=16AE5E72EE66F64BCDA37B4B70262523?diaryId=8971
Following from my email if anyone is interested ….
5:40pm central time is in 5 minutes …….
McCain has decided enough is enough. He’s let the “hate” genie out of the lamp and he’s struggling to get it back in. He knows he’s losing votes and he tries to backtrack (either that or he’s a decent person. It’s hard to tell these days). He gets booed by his own crowd for asking them to be respectful and says they don’t have to be scared of Obama as POTUS.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/McCain_asks_crowd_to_be_respectful_of_Obama.html
Two comments arising:
* Ayers was never convicted because the judge threw out the charges because the evidence came from an illegal FBI wiretap. He’s never denied having taken part in at least three bombings, any one of which could have killed people. If the word “terrorist” has any meaning, the Weather Underground were terrorists.
* RCP is not an “overtly Republican website.” Overt means “in the open, unconcealed.” Does RCP have a banner somewhere saying “We are Republicans”? No. So far as I can see they give a spead of opinion across the partisan range.
Adam
Please inform the FBI and CIA of your concerns re ayers,as they have absolutely nothing on the man
Maybe you could say you were j edgar hoover
From my trash folder in my email, a cut and paste about why my Rep. sister is voting for McCain. This will give some insight into the mind of a McCain voter first hand.
There you have it from the elephant’s mouth (elephant being the symbolic Republican logo).
You can chose your friends but not your relatives
Adam
Is McCain trying to tone down the crowd behaviour because it’s losing him votes or because he doesn’t agree with it?
Piers Akerman is overtly Lib and doesn’t have a banner.
True, they are just closet Republicans
Dario, I will give RCP this much. Even if they are run by Republican sympathizers, they publish a more balanced selection of articles [as opposed to their polling data and maps] than I would expect from such a site. Granted, it isn’t the quality of 23-b, TPM or Huffington Post – but nonetheless it gives MSM points from all sides. Otherwise, I wouldn’t keep it it in my favorites list on my browser if it were too obviously right wing
*Gusface, that inane comment isn’t worthy of response.
* The “crowd behaviour” turned out to be ONE person, beaten up into a Nuremberg rally by the Obamedia.
* Where is the evidence that RCP is either overtly or covertly Republican? And who cares anyway?
*Ackerman is a commentator, not a news service.
Ah Julie, I enjoy Huffpo too, but it’s a liberal Dem advocacy site and doesn’t pretend to be anything else.
I don’t know if Berlusconi has lost it but he’s talking about closing the world’s stock markets to rewrite the rules. And he’s also talking about a new Bretton Woods Agreement, which Adam could explain much better than me, but was the foundation for rebuilding the world’s economy after WWII.
Berlusconi Says Leaders May Close World’s Markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aP5mpMUORBWM
No doubt his stocks are falling. If the world crisis could have one positive outcome, it would be sending Berlusconi broke.
Diogenes,
I heard on the WIN news brief last night (just before their movie @ 8:30) that Swan was travelling to whereever this upcoming meeting was of various countries about the financial crisis, think they said 20 odd countries were participating. Might have been Washington they were all coming too, makes sense in the current climate.
HuffPo is overtly pro-Obama.
There was plenty of footage of wingnut McCain supporters saying racist, ridiculous things about Obama on Politico recently. J Mart wrote a good article about it. It was not one person. Even the Repugs aren’t saying that.
juliem
I didn’t know it had anything to do with other countries, including Oz. Those meetings will be a lot of fun.
No, Diogenes, we’re talking about the Plain rally in Clearwater, at which ONE person shouted out “kill him,” in reference to Ayers, not Obama, and at which ONE person shouted a racist remark at a black media person. This was then beaten up to suggest that the whole crowd were behaving like this, and that version has now become standard across the Obamedia. Read all about it:
http://www.city-journal.org/2008/eon1009jl.html
Oops Plain = Palin
There’s a G20 meeting happening somewhere. Australia is one of the G20.
The G20 = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20_industrial_nations#Future_hosts_of_G20_Summits
It’s meeting in Washington today.
Adam
Tell me these ugly wackos wouldn’t have fitted in well at Nuremberg.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/Obama_as_terrorist.html#comments
That makes two people?
Yeah, there’s no mob mentality… just an isolated incident
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/10/anti-obama-anger-erupts-a_n_133790.html
Didn’t sound like that to me
The link I gave says it was two different people. Two people in a crowd of several thousand does not make a Nuremberg rally.
The existence of ugly wackos in Ohio is not relevant to a story about Florida.
You were there?
Adam
Now I can call RCP overtly conservative because it’s founders (McIntyre and Bevan) say it is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics
My comments about McCain and Palin rallies becoming ugly “hate-fests” was not directed towards any particular rally. It was a general observation.
Newsweek national poll: Obama +11 (up 11 from 1 month ago)
Obama 52 (up 6)
McCain 41 (down 5)
http://www.newsweek.com/id/163337
There was footage of it IIRC
RCP national poll average now at Obama +6.6%, his biggest lead since June
A general observation based on what? Other than the misreporting of the Clearwater rally?
I’ll just put in a whinge/nitpick that this thread is called ‘Presidential election… etc’. There are many countries with presidents and presidential elections so it should really be highlights as ‘US Presidential election’.
This doesn’t sound like news that will put another Republican into the White House
It’s hard to think of what political or economic demographic WOULD be satisfied with the status quo right now. Bankruptcy lawyers perhaps.
further to 181 in case anyone doesn’t link to read the rest of the article, this bit is important …. anyone who sees themselves within the group of people described below, take note ……
In following recent republican tactics I can’t help thinking back to the closing stages of our last election and the stunts pulled by Andrew Rob (Inelligibility scam), NSW Liberals (fake muslim pamphlett) and others. The republicans have a similar mindset, are even further behind, and are just “broadminded” about legality and convention. I will expect similar tactics in the next four weeks. Still, as Dario and others have suggested, that will only disenchant the independants further, and turn a defeat into a rout.
Julie, a good point. The crisis has solidified the Dem base, and it’s hard to see any Clintonista voting Repub now, no matter how badly they felt about Obama. That alone is enough to give him the election. Are the Clintons out campaigning, or are they taking a well-earned rest?
Everything you wanted to know about CDS (Credit default swaps) but were afraid to ask. We all have been duped. it is not the Subprime mortgage market. The subprime was just a trigger, the straw that broke the camel’s back. The real culprit is the CDS. Talking about virtual product and trading, this is one and it was 3 times the size of the USA annual GDP. Did I hear the Rudd Government trumpeting a A$20 Billion surplus? Pitiful.
The CDS market – more than $45 trillion in mid-2007
This is roughly twice the size of the U.S. stock market (which is valued at about $22 trillion and falling)
Far exceeds the $7.1 trillion mortgage market
U.S. treasuries market – $4.4 trillion
US GDP per annum – $13.8 trillion
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1723152,00.html
Repo men?
Oh I forgot the Obamedia. They’re having a ball.
I’ve seen the loons at the rallies calling Obama an Arab, a Muslim, a terrorist, a communist, a socialist and a criminal.
It’s got so bad that McCain has had to try and shut them up. Of course the Obama campaign has brilliantly skewered McCain-Palin on the hate-mongering. They knew the Indies would side with them if they took the initiative.
And it’s working. The now officially conservative-leaning RCP has Obama increasing his national lead to 6.6% on the back of the smear tactics.
Fins
Yes exactly; I said something about that a few days ago. The republican attempt to sheet the crisis home to sub-primes and the CRA act was just political damage control. Those responsible for (not) regulating the CDS and CDO markets shoudl be sacked. Buffet warned against them in 2003.
Socrates @ 184,
Brings up an interesting point and one I’ve pondered for awhile. Who do you think is worse, the US Republicans or the NSW right? I would venture to say the US Republicans but that opinion might be jaded by the fact that the US election is current and I don’t live in NSW any more …..
Troopergate report finds Palin abused her power as Alaskan Governor. That’s breaking news on CNN’s website, no article yet.
I may have to revise my McCain prediction!
What did I tell ya
SNIP: Foul-mouthed comment deleted – The Management.
a series of photo shoots from various campaign stops with “the .236 spin” on the captions
Adam in Canberra, I note you have not responded to Diogenes 174 re RCP being overtly conservative. Dio, I think you made your point.
Oz @ 192,
Palin’s odds on Intrade at the moment, don’t think that Troopergate has factored in yet
….
Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee/candidate before 2008 presidential election – Last Price: 9.9 {up 6.4}
How could they dump her now. It just won’t happen.
I reckon McCain’s best chances are to withdraw from the Republican Party and run as an independent. He needs something drastic.
Re 187,
Updated that iconified window, its up to 10.8 in less than 5 minutes from my previous visit
……. someone’s chickens are coming home to roost 
“Desperate McCain gives beat to the dark heart of conservatism”
“It built up over the course of the week, as supporters at the rallies of John McCain and Sarah Palin started randomly screaming “terrorist!” and “off with his head!” and “treason!” and even “kill him!” at the mention of Barack Obama’s name.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/11/uselections2008-johnmccain1
Hmmm wasnt someone saying it was only one or two people at most
make this guy the POTUS:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=XEgn3kClWGs
that should read re. 197 not re. 187 ….. sorry Dario …
H.Post on the ball ….
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/10/troopergate-report-full-t_n_133806.html
Woah here we go.
Oz,
Currently 8:48pm on the US East Coast …. don’t think that McCain will be getting much sleep tonight
……
Finding #1 – Abuse of power.
I just realised how biased CNN is being in there banner. “A report finds”. It wasn’t just “a” report, it was a report by a bipartisan legislative council.
If she has abused her power and McCain, as expected, gets the short end of the stick on Election Day, doesn’t that leave her open to impeachment proceedings vis a vis the governor’s office?
Namely ethics violations
I think he’ll actually have a better chance of winning if he keeps her than if her gets rid of her, funnily enough.
Firing her isn’t going to bring as many people back to him as she brought to McCain.
Quite possibly
What, so who’s actually Governing Alaska at the moment?
Exactly right. If he dumps her then the base doesn’t turn up on polling day. There’s no turning back. There goes the media cycle for the next few days.
Probably her lieutenant Governor
Sounds like she’s got plenty more to hide as well
Gary, I let it pass because this is not a debate about RCP and I really don’t care. The fact that the site’s founders are Repubs doesn’t mean that the site itself is Repub. I don’t see any evidence that it is. It gives regular links to Huffpo, Salon, Nation, NYT and other lib/Dem/left sites. The original claim, that it OVERTLY Repub or conservative, is still wrong. For it to be OVERT it must actually say “We are Republicans”.
Ok, the s*** has hit the fan ….
Talk about lame. I feel like we are watching a Kevin Bacon movie…
This is all getting a bit weird.
Hurry up November 4th.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/10/mccain.mortgages/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
He’s getting wedged in by the left and the right.
Please explain this principle to Ron!
Good to see that McCain is finally distancing himself from the hysterical attacks against Obama at his public rallies, including this clip where a woman calls him an “Arab”.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=DLlIigHg1v0
This is the sort of basic decency that McCain was renowned for in the late 1990s. If he showed this earlier in the campaign by taking on his party and selecting a decent V.P. candidate, then he probably wouldn’t be so far behind.
I notice on that TPM link a poll showing the GA Senate race as a tie. That race hasn’t even been on the radar until now. EC.com shows it as 50/44 on Oct 7. Now it’s 45/45.
It’s pretty hypocritical since it’s obvious McCain and Palin are attempting to provoke exactly those kinds of responses by linking him to “terrorists”, “Muslims”, etc.
When have McCain/Palin linked him to “Muslims?”
Diogenes, please don’t evade my filters by switching letters in words which plainly aren’t permitted here.
Good try. Simply what comes out the mouths of Palin and McCain themselves is not representative of what they and their campaign are trying to achieve. Most of the powerful attacks come from other members of their campaign, Republican legislators or “independant” (Read recently resigned from campaign team) commentators – giving McCain and Palin plausible deniability and the chance to distance themselves from the comments. However, by then the damage as already been done.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10536759
This is true, because yesterday morning the McCain campaign put out a press release condemning Obama for criticising some of McCain supporters have been saying. (i.e. calling out that he is a terrorist or a socialist)
But now McCain has made the pivot and has started criticising their views himself. So the dog whistle doesn’t seem to be working, so now he is going to be Mr Congeniality. (He’s tried everything else).
Fine, so McCain and Palin (which is what you said, not anybody else) have not linked Obama to “Muslims.” You spoil your own case by exaggeration and misrepresentation of this kind, although you are just drifting along with the pack. As for “terrorists”, Obama linked himself to Ayers – all McCain has done is point the link out.
Anyway this is all very small potatoes now. The election will be decided by the economic crisis and nothing else. If that dominates the news for the next three weeks, Obama will win in a canter, and the rest of the Dem ticket will win too.
William
My bad.
You could set your filter to include switched letters!
Yeah right, like how McCain linked himself to someone who blamed Americans for September 11th.
I think the fact Palin was found to have abused her position as Governor may become quite a story as well:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/us/politics/11trooper.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
At this rate she is going to turn out to be the worst V.P. candidate selection in history.
Yes he did, and that was very stupid of him.
What is it with the OO and bloggers? They’ve had another petulant rant today. The sooner William and Possum start doing their own polls, the better. Matchett is such a knob.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,24461161-26063,00.html
William 225
I’m glad you came down on that. One or two other commenters had tried it on too. Not very nice.
When a FoxNews Poll has Obama 7 points ahead you know McCain is in serious trouble.
Such as those displayed by the Murdoch press all through last year’s election campaign? No wonder newspapers are dying.
Big test for the US media in the next few days. Have they finally learnt the difference between objectivity and “balance”, where the latter means an inability to state clearly a negative fact about one candidate without having to do the same about the other?
If there is any real objectivity, they will give this Palin story the clear, unequivocal run it deserves. No other liberal democracy on Earth would let a candidate for high office escape from a finding such as abuse of power intact.
Oh I think it will get a run. It is already on the news.com.au homepage.
There is a narrative that Palin is a light weight, and this fits right in with that story.
217
McCarthyism is alive and well in the McCain campaign.
Indiana has fallen to Obama on Intrade, but Missouri has switched back to McCain.
Next it will be Obama has associated himself with Osama Bin Ladin, because in all probability he has breathed one of the same carbon dioxide molecules.
My poll aggregate list now includes Iowa, because SurveyUSA has just published the first poll from there this month.
Of course, Matchett’s comment about US newspapers couldn’t possibly be applicable to Australia. Pot, kettle, black. Hasn’t he read our papers?
Isn’t his idea really a rehash of “the medium is the message”? He seems to think that the mode of producing a story for a newspaper increases its quality.
Surely it is simply the quality of the story itself, and the way it is produced is secondary?
242 – One of the interesting stats on that Iowa poll is that 14% of people indicate they have voted already and those people favoured Obama by about 2:1 indicating perhaps something about the “enthusiam” factor.
Palin has turned out to be a big help today.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/5072417/palin-abused-power-alaska-troopergate-probe-finds/
Kinda late to the party Steve.
See #192 on.
To McCain’s credit, and his supporters, the first time he defends Obama as decent he is booed but the second time, when Obama is called an “Arab” (not that there’s anything wring with being an Arab IMHO) McCain defends him again and the crowd applauds.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/silentpatriot/mccain-booed-after-saying-obama-dece
so Palin is found to have abused her power. now, i wonder ron et al, how important is this compared to the ayers issue???
and now we have Michelle Obama with Ayers can we now have Todd Palin and the Alaskan Independence movement??
Andrew @249
hear hear
In the ranking of second-order issues, it will trump Ayers. But all these issues are bupkes compared to the financial crisis.
It probably won’t affect which box these voters tick.
http://www.click2houston.com/investigates/17671375/detail.html
Texas Watchdog compared Harris County’s voter registration roll with the Social Security death index and found more than 4,000 matches — registered voters that, it appears, are already dead.
Wow.
The way McCain’s looking, the corpses will probably identify with him and vote Repug. They might be the hidden demographic he’s been searching for.
All this Ayers stuff is a bit ironic. A domestic terrorist would probably be McCain’s only hope now.
Adam in Canberra asks:
“When have McCain/Palin linked him to “Muslims?”
Are you claiming that you don’t know what dog whistling is, or that you can’t recognize such activities?
I think he was pointing out that parts of McCain’s cheer squad are calling Obama an Arab, and not all Arabs are Muslims.
They are obviously trying to connect Arabs with terrorism, and thus if Obama is an Arab he must be a terrorist.
Of course it is nonsense, but McCain has dug this hole, he should’ve repudiated such racist rubbish earlier.
But that is the thing with dog whistling isn’t it, nothing is ever said directly. Arab, Muslim, terrorist, the obnoxious message depends on the target audience.
My view of Howard plummeted when he employed such tactics, my view view McCain has simple shifted from silly old bugger to obnoxious silly old bugger.
I find it difficult how anyone can feel comfortable supporting the crap that is currently coming out of the McCain camp.
Cricket update – India 106 for 4 after starting the day 68 for 0. Mitchell Johnson 3 for 40 with 3 maidens off of 12 overs. Other wicket went to Brett Lee ….. India in all sorts of trouble as lunch break won’t be for another 40 minutes yet. Stuart Clark hasn’t even had a bowl yet.
35 Senate seats are up for reelection this year. Out of those 35, 23 are held by Republicans. Possibilities of gaining that 60+ fillibuster proof majority are looking really good
.
juliem… are you arguing that that would be good for democracy? I doubt it. Think to yourself, if the shoe were on the other foot would you like the Republicans to have ‘that 60+ fillibuster proof majority’.
Didn’t think so.
LTEP, I think the idea of being able to filibuster anything, particular a procedural filibuster, is bad for democracy. The idea of a minority government being able to indefinitely block or stop an elected majority from functioning is crazy.
ltep,
No I wouldn’t want that but not because I think the split would be good for democracy, but because then the Dems couldn’t get any substantive legislation passed. No problem at all if my party is in power with control over both houses of legislature as then some honest, good policies would be passed. IF I was a Lib (mind you I am NOT), I would have had NO problem with JH having control over the whole lot of it when he did.
For me, it isn’t about “good for democracy” it is all about having the actual chance to get laws passed into power that I agree with and that can’t happen when there is obstruction in the legislature. Ditto here with the current Senate situation at the moment. Rudd has to work with minority and independant senators but when they cooperate, decent stuff gets done. Being obstinate in opposition for the pure sake of it, whether in Canberra or Washington, is never in the best interests of either country as nothing substantive gets done.
I know where Ron gets his information from now.
Other half and I have been watching ‘FIXED NEWS’ – the unfair and unbalanced one!!
What an eye opener – we sit with staring expressions not quite believing what we are hearing.
This morning we learnt that Obama is responsible for the Stock Market falling. Apparently Americans are so nervous watching the polls shoot up for Obama so they are selling, selling, selling before the election. Surprisingly the ‘Fixed’ commentator, Cavuto, looked as stunned as we were and he cut the segment short.
I don’t know what kind of weird pleasure we are getting out of watching this – we gave up the OO ages ago but I have to admit they can’t compete with Fixed News for unparalled bias.
This afternoon it is all about redeeming the image of Sarah Palin after the Alaskan verdict.
We have switched off until we can get our eyes back in our heads.
So, Ron, I suggest you do the same – the polls are showing that Ayers is passe.
McCain’s campaign has totally lost the plot. They can’t get their story straight on anything. This has to be one of the most inept presidential campaigns in history.
Remember McCain and his campaign blaming Obama for the bailout package flopping in the HOR.
Well now McCain is taking CREDIT for the bailout failing.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Davis_McCain_blew_up_bailout.html
A little more on Obama – 14 minutes of behind the scenes of the campaign
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/10/obama-camp-who-is-barack_n_133708.html
A variety of versions of a Bush countdown clock ….
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/blbushclock.htm
http://www.bbspot.com/News/2005/01/bush_countdown.html
http://www.bushslastday.com/
http://www.backwardsbush.com/
http://i262.photobucket.com/albums/ii117/kuparuk/mccainwreck.jpg
http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/1097/palinsiqcopyhr1.jpg
Story about the varying angles that the Obama campaign is using to work the Jewish vote in Florida
…..
meanwhile republican politicians are backing away from Mccain/Failin
http://i89.photobucket.com/albums/k206/swingstateproject/obamaterryvoter.jpg
Poltical violence is as American as apple pie and the Wheathermen were a sad example of this. But overwhelmingly the political violence in 60s American came from the right; Kent State, the Klan etc. To the Wheathermen Vietnam changed everything, just as some today beleive that 9/11 changed everything. Crackpot political conclusions followed on both the far right and the far left. Ayres has contributed to better public policy since then. As for Obama being ‘linked’(?) to Ayres it’s the same argument used to claim that H V Evatt (staunch royalist and legislative hammer of the Miners in 1949) was a crypto-Communist because he did legal work for the WWF.
juliem
“No problem at all if my party is in power with control over both houses of legislature as then some honest, good policies would be passed.”
Oh ok then… all the rest of us should be happy with that explanation! What about non-partisans who would like there to be thorough scrutiny of the actions of governments/administrations? To take a leaf from Julia Gillard’s book you probably think they should just ‘get out of the government’s way’.
Control of both houses is what got us Work Choices, which from their eyes was ‘honest, good policy’, but from many other people’s eyes a bit longer for scrutiny and a whole lot of amending would’ve been a better result for the country.
Itep
It all depends on who you think is the legitimate government and voice of the people: the president, the House of Representatives or the Senate. Who actually governs if there are different parties in control in each of these institutions?
All of them are the ‘voice of the people’ in their own way. Each of them is constrained by the other, the whole point of the separation of powers being that the state is constrained from placing too much of a burden on citizens. The idea is that the more checks and balances the less likely it is for one of the bodies to overstep the mark.
“Control of both houses is what got us Work Choices”
The elected party in the house of reps should be able to introduce any policies it likes if a reasonable mandate is achieved at an election. The worst possible result for the country would have been re election of the Howard government. And that would have been a possibility had the Senate been able to blocke Worst Choices.
‘If a reasonable mandate is acheived’ is what Centre rights.
So you’re arguing Howard was given a mandate to introduce Work Choices then?
Apparently a county in New York printed hundreds of absentee ballots with a typo… can you guess what it was? Yep, Barack Osama.
Funny thing – it was ‘checked’ by three different people.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/10/barack-osama-pr.html
Yes. He did, and he was given the flick.
Look at all this nonesense the Liberals are going on with oppposing everything in the Senate for the sake of populism! They should never be allowed to block election promises that were voted for by the people.
The GST should have been blocked cause the Libs lost the popular vote. The Democrats would still be around today if they had.
Oz, no! Surely not from the greatest democracy ever LOL.
So Centre, Labor were wrong to attempt to block Work Choices?
Secondly, do you think Oppositions are given a mandate by the people who voted for them? Similarly, are minor parties in the Senate given a mandate to take particular actions?
The arguments you are putting forward are certainly very convenient when the party you support are in government. Your conception of mandate theory is also very shallow… I certainly don’t recall Labor taking their pledge to increase the LCT to the election. That’s not to say they shouldn’t do such a thing, it’s just to say it’s the role of Oppositions and minor parties, particularly in the Senate to review policy decisions and decide whether they are in the best interest of the public.
Itep
The theory of the separation of powers doesn’t survive the reality of party politics. One of the 3 centres of political power can effectively stymie any of the others for partisan reasons rather than for the protection of the people. The end result is that nothing happens, bad or good.
How different would the Clinton legacy have been with a Democrat controlled Congress? Why hasn’t the Democrat controlled Reps and Senate been able to implement Democrat policies in the last 2 years if they are a better expression of the peoples’ will than an old president?
BTW, isn’t the US Senate equally unrepresentative swill?
I’m one of the 27,000,000 people who check Drudge each day. He breaks news the fastest of almost anyone day or night. He doesn’t seem to sleep. But he seems to have dropped the ball on Palin having been found to have abused her power by a bipartisan panel. It’s on every front page news in the US, including Fox. But nowhere at all on Drudge. Nada. In ten hours.
I think Matty is curled up in a corner in the foetal position, sucking his thumb for comfort, rocking back and forth repeating “This is not happening, this is not happening.”
He’s going to have to accept reality sooner or later.
In that case do away with the legislature altogether and just allow the executive to make all decisions. If what you’re arguing is the best system of government is just to allow the government of the day to implement anything they want, then the legislature serves no purpose other than as a formality.
IMHO. Yes.
If the LCT is such a bad policy, they will be booted out at the next election.
A mandate is a clear victory at an election. Like the 07, 04, 01 & 96 elections etc.
For clarification, #281 relates to the US and not the Australian scene which appeared in intervening posts.
So the Opposition, Greens etc. have no point at all being in Parliament? Couldn’t you make the same argument that if blocking legislation is so bad the Opposition or minority parties will be punished at the next election?
Itep
That’s effectively the situation in Queensland where the the parliamentary majority in the single legislative house gives the party the executive. But poor old Joh still couldn’t understand the concept of the separation of powers between the 2 remaining bases of power.
284,
Agreed; in spades, hearts, clubs and diamonds. I’ll be praying for the extra Senate seats on top of a Democratic White House
……. the pendulum won’t be this far left for ever so we had better make hay while the sun shines 
……..
(Btw, because of the system of government in the US, it is MUCH harder for minor parties to get elected so effectively you have either party A or party B to vote for so you are much more likely to see same party legislatures and executives then you would here (having both houses controlled by the same party))
No Itep.
The opposition and minor parties have every right to debate and urge the government to change or amend policies. At the end of the day people should know where each party stands. However the elected party should be able to implement it’s policies. Both here and the US. The US system seriously needs help lol.
The current situation in the Australian parliament means the the ALP in a minority government. It has the majority in the reps which means that it is the government but it is a minority in the Senate. Which house has the greater legitimacy if they are elected at different times under different rules?
288 juliem. Not just a pretty face I’m sure, brains as well.
)
ltep,
the opposition, greens, et. al have every business being in parliament BUT if their policies hold any water, the public will give them the mandate and vote them in at the next election. by virtue of the fact that they didn’t get the most votes, the public has said through the ballot box “We don’t want your policies”. Therefore, the government of the day carries the action. Thus the words (for example) of the sundry members of the current front bench when they say “if you want bipartisanship, get your act together in the Senate and pass the government’s legislation”.
(your words from #280)
“best interest of the public” = what the public wants = the mandate of policy put forth by the party with the most votes at the last election
DOES NOT = policy positions of party that came in second place.
juliem
Which part of the system causes this? It can’t be the first-past-the-post polling because UK also operates like this and manages to elect a significant number of third party candidates.
Most third party winning candidates in the UK have been from the Lib Dems (or their predecessors). They’ve been around in the House of Commons for centuries and have a strong and established presence in the UK. There is no such equivalent party in the US.
It’s also worth noting that the main other type of winning third party candidates in the UK have been region-centric nationalist parties (i.e. Scottish Nationalists, Plaid Cymru). The Tories have effectively stopped campaigning in both Scotland and Wales and allowed these regional parties (as well as the Lib Dems) to act as the effective opposition to Labour in these regions. Once again, there is no such equivalent in the US.
Troopergate
So Palin’s actions were immoral but not illegal, according to the investigation. That’s what’s called a pyrrhic victory.
291 Centre,
Thanks
…… Cheers
Minor parties don’t get elected in the US for the good and sufficient reason that no-one votes for them. The Greens still haven’t recovered from the debacle of the Nader candidacy in 2000, which handed the White House to G W Bush. The Libertarians are widely regarded as nuts. Who else is there?
Swing Lowe
Yes, but that is not a systemic cause. If say the southern Democrats had split in the 1960s over racial integration you may have seen a similar situation. The current predominance of the Republican and Democrat parties in the US does not appear to be a natural consequence of the US representative as such.
ItsTime @ 293,
I believe that it has to due with a federal threshold in that you have to have ‘xxxxx’ amount of votes or supporters to get matching federal funds for your name/party. In otherwords, all parties get federal matching funds but unless you meet a certain threshold you don’t. Therefore, it is extraordinarily hard for minor parties to get enough exposure that they reach this threshold if that makes any sense? It is a circular arguement. How do we get people to know about us and like us/our positions? By going national. But we can’t afford to go national. Well we can get federal funds to help us get there. No we can’t we don’t have enough support/exposure to do that ……
(federal matching funds – dollar for dollar to what a campaign raises to a certain threshold amount and you can’t spend beyond that. McCain has matching funds this election, Obama turned them down, guessing correctly that he could raise more than tha ton his own)
Now I could be wrong, I’m not that expert with advice on US politics. I didn’t follow it all that closely, I tend to get more involved in the issues per se rather than the processes themselves.
The Reform Party managed to get Jesse Ventura elected to Gov. of Minnesota in the late 1990s. Reform formed from the remnants of Perot’s failed bids for President in 1992 and 1996.
That said, for a while in 1992, it looked like Ross Perot was going to revolutionize American politics by taking the White House. There was a period in the middle of that campaign where Perot had a sizable national lead over both Bush I and Clinton…
Perot gave it a good shot, even muscling in on the debates.
Troopergate delivers but Rezko isn’t going to. He’s rumoured to blabbing on other politicians esp the governor but Obama is in the clear.
Obama fundraiser, convicted of fraud, spills beans
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081011/D93O5M100.html
SwingLowe,
That election of Ventura bodes well for Franken this time around. Minnesota (to borrow a phrase from the McCain campaign) is truely a maverick state
…….
SL,
yes, Franken isn’t an Independent (think he’s a Dem.?) but his candidacy is still “out there” compared to traditional politicians LOL …….
They kind of did. Strom Thurmond ran for president in 1948 as a Dixiecrat http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixiecrat.
He won Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and his home state of South Carolina.
He was initially a Democrat, but became a Republican in 1964.
I think (and this is my assertion only) that the only way a party can break a 2 party monopoly is to get elected somewhere in the country. I know this sounds circular, but there is evidence to back it up.
In Australia, the Greens only became the third force after they started getting people elected to parliaments across the country (or after the NDP senators switched to become the WA Greens – same idea). The Democrats began to lose their influence after they stopped winning seats. The SNP and Plaid Cymru only rose from the “fringe” of UK politics after they started turfing out incumbent parties from seats in the House of Commons.
In the US, no other party has made a serious play for a US House of Reps seat in recent times. After the collapse of the Reform Party, no third party (as opposed to an independent) has won a state-wide or federal election in the US. If the Greens (or the Libertarians) manage to win a House of Reps seat in the US, they will then begin to be taken seriously and the two-party divide there will start to crumble. Until then, the GOP and the Dems are safe to battle it out until eternity…
Perot and Ventura were both independents, they just created a “shell” party for fundraising reasons. There is no serious third party in the US, contesting office at every level the way the Lib Dems do in the UK or the Greens do here. The main reason for that is that anyone can run in a Dem or Repub primary, and if they win they are the candidate. There’s no reason why anyone would split away and form a serious third party.
Yeah that’s pretty much it. The Democrats and Republicans are essentially the same gigantic, amorphous beast. There are extremely conservative Dems and more moderate Republicans.
The idea that the US is some kind of brilliant model for representative government should be discarded. They’re a virtual oligarchy that seeks a mandate through a broken and corrupted ‘democratic’ process.
The other factor is the power structure of the legislatures. If you’re not part of the hierarchy of seniority within one of the two party caucuses, you don’t get any clout on the committees, where is where the real power in the Congress and the state legislatures is to be had. As Joe Lieberman is about to find out, being an independent member of Congress is a lonely place to be.
So internal party machinations are the key to gaining power.
Sounds like another superpower we used to know.
Er, except there are two of them.
So they are twice as democratic.
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby national tracking poll
Obama +4 (down 1)
Obama 48 (steady)
McCain 44 (up 1)
http://www.zogby.com/salespage/2008tracking.cfm
Obama’s RCP average lead is 7.1
That seems to be because they dropped off three polls from yesterday’s average (CNN, Ipsos & Democracy Corps), which boosted Obama. Not sure why they dropped them…
Given the battering McCain/Palin have taken, 48/44 is hardly a commanding lead. There’s still a lot of consumer resistance to Obama, despite the collapse of the Republican brand.
Which is why I think it’s a bad idea to completely write-off McCain as most have done. If he can muster numbers in the mid-forties in this current climate, it’s not inconceivable that an Obama hiccup could lead to a significant swing for him.
Florida
Research 2000 / Florida Times-Union / South Florida Sun-Sentinel
10/6-8/2008; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama +5 (up 4)
Obama 49 (up 3)
McCain 44 (down 1)
http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/101008/met_342306549.shtml
Er, that’s one poll, the average is about 3 points higher…
Not to mention he is getting absolutely destroyed at the ECV level, which is where it counts
I’m amazed even 40% would vote for McCain and Palin. I wonder how much of it is an anti-Obama vote, given he is extremely annoying and I don’t even live in the country!
Oh come on… even Latham got 38% in 2004
Rasmussen national tracking poll:
Obama +7 (up 2)
Obama 52 (up 2)
McCain 45 (steady)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
“Political Activism Alive and Well in US”
http://voanews.com/english/NewsAnalysis/2008-10-10-voa1.cfm
I just love this quote:
“Hourican says the protests are crucial. She says democracy is like a muscle – it weakens without exercise.”
OMG ……ROTFL ……
Does anyone know if the Senate and gubernatorial contests are tracking similar to the presidential one? I imagine the democrats could make a large gain if they are. It seems to me that even if McCain was elected (remote) he would face a hostile Congress, to the extent of being a lame duck president.
Socrates,
Click on this link – http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/senate.html.
When you’ve seen all of the Senate you want, click on President/House/Governor to get the other race summary polls ……
Juliem
Thanks, OK so they stand to lose a lot this time round. In fact, those numbers make me wonder about that 48/44 Obama/McCain poll result; overall the pro-democrat swing looks bigger than that.
Another question you may be able to answer – what has happened to the official investigations of the collapse of Bear Sterns and others, and possible criminal charges for those who set these deals up? I ask because its hard to believe there will not be some embarrasement for Phil Gram and co. Although the consequences are only now beign fully exposed, it is over a year since the first big market losses on CDOs were announced, over six months since Bear Sterns, and at least a month since Bush announced there were several investigations going on. What is happening to the investigations? Unregulated market or not, I can’t believe there haven’t been instances of simple fraud involved in the CDO market, especially when sub-prime and normal mortgages were bundled together and sold as one non-sub prime product. Anyone know?
Incoming administration faces a huge foreign policy timebomb …..
Yes Pakistan is very tricky. It is so corrupt that even if you offer them cash, there is no guarantee that some of it won’t wind up in Taliban hands. I have followeed the slide in Pakistan economics and politics since the mid 70s and have no idea how to fix it. There was a time when it was richer than India per capita, but now its a basket case dependant on cash being mailed home by expatriots.
Any LOTR fans out there?
That was an interesting read juliem and the comments after it are good as well. The one thing that really made sense to me was the guy who said
And thats it really, you want me to believe you’ve repented John? pull the ad’s. Otherwise what your saying now just makes what you and that evil scank have been doing even worse
bugger!
scank = skank
Socrates, I don’t know anything about Bear Stearns, sorry. I googled for answers this morning and can’t answer your questions on the results that turned up so I’m as in the dark as you are.
Julem,
I know a bit about “beer steins”. Will that help?
Look on the bright side. Aren’t some of these terrorist organisations going to feel the pinch in the economic meltdown? Bombs are going to be hard to find, their pension plans aren’t going to be worth much and they’ll lose their days jobs.
Socrates, the fraud charges began earlier in the year.
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/category/bear-stearns/
Steve
Thanks. OK that confirms one Bear Sterns case is proceeding (with a friendly judge…) but what about the rest? I thought there were many investigations under way when Bush said something on this a few months back. Bear Sterns were just one player in this game, and not the biggest. Lehmans engaged in some very questionable behaviour leading up to their collapse. Creditors might be entitled to ask if they will see justice if there is not a change in government.
Learned one interesting thing this morning, that these big investment banks earn most of their income through interest on margin accounts.
http://www.stockbroker-fraud.com/lawyer-attorney-1217557.html
Obama is now unbackable with the bookmakers. He ranges between 5/1 on to 8/1 on.
The only question now is whether McCain will lose with dignity or continue to sell his soul. Given his incompetent campaign, I’m guessing he will flip-flop between the two.
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/democrat-candidate
What History Tells Us About the Market
The breathtakingly volatile week has left investors numb. A close study of the Great Crash, and the decades that followed, offers some unnerving context, and some reasons for optimism.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122368241652024977.html
TP 342 a great read. One of my frustrations when I studied economics was how few people were interested in economic history. No wonder they never learn from it. Given that there is a lot of pure psychology at play now, a change in government adn mood will probably be a good thing. I remember Hawke and Keating coming to power in 83 and basically saying, just go out there and spend, and the economy will restart. And it did.
Julie 331
How perfectly that fits today’s circumstances.
Are the Dems planning to use it as an ad for Obama? Because I think it would be very effective.
Up until last year, that was considered perfectly acceptable. Credit rating agencies (such as Standard & Poors and Moodys) considered CDOs that bundled sub-prime and normal mortgages together as constituting investment grade (> BBB+) quality. They did this by saying that the normal mortgages acted to diversify the risk of the sub-prime mortgages. Unfortunately, they forget to remember that mortgages are correlated to each other – so when sub-prime mortgages go under, they drag all property prices down, which makes normal mortgages less valuable.
As a result, supposedly safe CDOs (ratings of AA or AAA) defaulted, which drastically affected the risk profile and asset value of those banks (such as Bear Stearns and Lehmann Brothers) that held them. These banks had to write down the value of their assets to their current market value (called marked-to-market), which meant that they didn’t have enough assets to cover their liabilities…
SL
I’m aware of that but my concern about fraud is as follows: It’s one thing to say that you rate the risk the same, but another to say the two types of mortgages are the same thing. I read that some foreign banks purchased CDOs on the understanding that they didn’t contain sub-prime mortgages, when in fact they did. If that reporting is correct, then I’d expect the lenders may complain.
Darn @ 345,
If you are talking about the YouTube piece where Reagan endorses Obama, I’m not sure. I’m not channeling the Obama campaign
. I bet, though, that you will see some variation of this at some point though, perhaps as part of the 30 minute time spot that Obama is buying on all the major networks or near the end of the debate next week. If you go back to the Reagan piece, you can tell he was on a stage behind a lecturn. 1980 was my first election I was old enough to vote in. I remember this and in fact it WAS from the closing statement in the final debate that year with Carter. I’m trying to get my brother back in Michigan to give me a headsup on email when he finds out what time block CNN will use for this 30 minute spot. I told him that we get CNNInternational as opposed the the straight up CNN that they get, but that for major election stuff, we should get it live. When I find out what time it will be broadcast, I’ll post something. He also suggested YouTube after the fact as a way to se that 30 minute piece. Cheers 
Excellent article TP.
As I said in an earlier post, the big question now is how low can the market go?
In my opinion, if the market falls far enough, it will be property prices that will ultimately capitulate as well with the most serious consequences. The market, by its nature, is more able to recover quicker than property prices (just like it is more capable of falling quicker). If you bought property at relative highs not too long ago, and you are in a job that may not be too secure, be aware!
God bless America they say. Pack of wankers. All under Republican and Dubya’s watch! They can’t vote Obama in quick enough I reckon.
347
Thanks Julie. You’re a mine of information.
BTW. Is there any indication that McCain will also be buying time?
(Is it something that both parties normally tend to do in US elections)?
This was always going to happen. Palin is resoundingly booed when she drops the puck at the ice hockey. It reminds me of Bush and Cheney getting the same treatment when they did the opening pitch in the baseball. Will they never learn?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/11/hockey-mom-palin-greeted_n_133911.html
Someone is defending Sarah Palin
//www.dailyreckoning.com.au/sarah-palinese/2008/10/09/
Today’s national tracking poll results:
Gallup: Obama +9 (down 1)
Rasmussen: Obama +7 (up 2)
Zogby: Obama +4 (down 1)
Hotline: Obama +10 (up 3)
RCP average: Obama +7.6 (up 1.0)
Those negative attacks against Obama are really working!
The U.S. kicks North Korea out of the Axis-of-Evil:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/world/asia/12terror.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Darn,
No, in fact, to buy this amount of time (30 mins) is very expensive. McCain can’t afford it. Its beside the point that he wouldn’t have 30 minutes worth of material to speak about LOL
. The first and last time (?) [that I am aware of] that this happened is Ross Perot in 1992. But Perot had heaps of his own money then. McCain tied himself in a financial bind when he accepted public funds. It gave him heaps of money but that money came with strings attached. Obama didn’t take public money so he can spend as much as he can raise 
…..
On a positive with this financial crisis which I haven’t heard anyone else mention given that Australia is fundamentally very strong and economically strong, is that we are going to come out of this a stronger nation. Who knows, 8 more years of Republicans, or most certainly 8 more years of Dubya, and China could end up as the superpower with us as the no.1 contender.
I’m actually starting to feel sorry for McCain; he has lost the center vote and has been left with the right wing nutters. He may be a silly old bugger but he is either smart enough to realize you don’t win elections from there, or principled enough to be very uncomfortable with where the Republican campaign is heading.
This right wing neocon nonsense had to come to an end and he is the poor guy left holding the can, and he really isn’t that stupid, mind you he seems to have selected a classic 21st century model as his running mate.
Some not very encouraging views on the attempts to stabilise the financial crisis. It is getting criticsed by economists of the left, centre and right:
Left (Angry Bear)
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/
Centre (Krugman)
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
Right (Becker/Posner)
http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/index.html
This is the danger when you let highly ideologically driven people stack public services with like minded types – they can’t let go of their beliefs when we need them to find a new solution. We really need some competent, middle-of-the-road economists in Washington right now. At least our Glen Stevens and Dr Henry aren’t ideologues.
Can you imagine if McCain did win the election and something happened to him and Palin became President for real?
Yep, we can start learning Chinese.
McCain in good poll shocker: leading 48-46 in Ohio, according to University of Cincinatti/Dayton Daily News.
Fred 357
Yes I feel a bit sorry for McCain too; he’s not personally evil the way Bush is. Ever since he won the nomination and all the republican party machine has joined his campaign it has hurt him. As I said befor silly choices like Phil Gram as economics advisor makes it impossible for him to distance himself from Bush’s policies. Palin was obviously a choice to hold the nutbar base-vote and I will always wonder if she was his choice or foisted on him. Everyone sses that the “maverick” is no more and has been swallowed up by the party machine. It leaves him with no appeal to independants.
fredn
Don’t feel sorry for McCain. His Faustian deal with the Right was of his own making. If he stuck to his principles, he would still be in with a chance. I’ll start feeling sorry for him when the Right turns on him for losing so badly and blaming him for destroying the Repug brand, which would be totally unfair. I’m guessing that won’t be long in coming. Those Repugs really hate losing.
William
I find that Ohio result bizarre. Ohio will be practically ground zero of the economic fallout of the financial mess.
I can’t remember who wrote it, but…
If you have to keep going around everywhere telling everyone you’re a maverick, then you’re probably not a maverick.
William
The same poll had McCain ahead by 6% on the 20th Sept so that poll shows Obama improving by 4%.
Not sure I’d call that a shocker William. All the latest Ohio polls of decent size have been hovering around a stastical tie
Ah, there you go
Public Policy Polling: Obama 52, McCain 42 in Colorado.
And 60% of the interviews were before the second debate, so the ongoing swing to Obama has been missed. Still it does leave a glimmer of hope. McCain’s real problem is that VA and CO are pretty much gone for him. There’s too many states to defend.
Hi all, my first post in a while. I’ve been busy – did I miss anything?
It now looks like Obama just has to stay calm or maybe just upright and he will cruise to solid victory. The side issue seems to be whether the democrats can get 60 seats in the Senate.
The only hope I can see for McCain is that volatility of everything (markets, voters, tempers) is very high. So there is always a chance of some event or mistake that will allow him to pull back enough in the key states.
Obama can win this election without OH in many ways.
The best way is to win all the Kerry states (all look like a lock now) + IA (lock) + NM (near-lock – no recent polls there) + CO (near-lock – see WB @ 369).
The fact that he is also ahead in VA (up by 6.3% on RCP), FL (up by 3.8%), NV (up by 3%), NC (up by 1.2%) and OH (up by 2.7%) show that Obama is tracking very well and does not need to win OH (although it would be nice).
On present figures Obama doesn’t need Ohio.
SL
His lack of money must be hurting him as well. He could get over the line in NV, NC and OH with a bit of luck. But he’s so far behind in CO that he needs a huge effort there. VA needs even more money as it’s even bigger and he’s further behind there, although it may not be as bad as it looks coz he hasn’t campaigned there so it could turn faster than other places. FL is huge and the resources just don’t stretch everywhere. Palin is in WV now and that’s a bad look.
GOP running out of ideas on which strategy to use.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/us/politics/12strategy.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Based on RCP averages, McCain is now 7.6% behind Obama nationally. This is only marginally less than Bush I’s win over Dukakis in terms of national polls (7.8%) in 1988, an election where Bush won in a near-landslide (426-111).
So the commentators here who think that McCain trailing by mid-high single digits means he’s competitive are way off track – he’s about to lose by a margin (in terms of national popular vote) that may be the biggest since Reagan in 1984…
Correction – that should be Mondale, rather than Reagan, in 1984
If McCain was really decent we wouldn’t be getting any of this dirty stuff from the republicans right now.
I suspect that McCain went there in desperation and now that he realises it’s not working and the election is all but lost, he is trying to rescue his now badly tarnished reputation.
If that scenario seems a bit too cynical, then perhaps he was genuinely shocked when he started to see the fruits of the insinuations against Obama (shouts of terrorist, kill him etc from the loony right). But if that is the case, why has Palin not been told to can it?
Baghdad Bob Barone doesn’t agree it’s over. IMHO Barone is the worst and most discredited commentator in the US. His denial of reality during the Hillary campaign reached delusional proportions when he used made up figures in an attempt to pretend Hillary might win the popular vote. 538 torches this article.
The Race Isn’t Necessarily Over for Barack Obama and John McCain
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/10/9/the-race-isnt-necessarily-over-for-barack-obama-and-john-mccain.html
Darn
Palin has pulled her head in recently.
Darn @ 373,
Serves the Republicans right after 2004 if they lost and still carried Ohio
……. For folks who live or have lived in Michigan like I have, most often the top of the “hate” list are Ohioans. A common saying in Michigan is “the only thing Ohio is good for is to drive through en route to Florida on holiday”. From where I sit, it serves Ohio right if they end up wallowing in their McCain love affair while Obama celebrates his victory 
…….
Is Palin starting to campaign for Palin/X 2012 rather than McCain/Palin 2008?
That seems to be the wet dream of the neocon commentators who have flown the white flag on this election.
dont know if anyone has posted this site before,
http://www.factcheck.org/
but it is great as a resource to verify BOTH sides claims or lies.
Michael Cusack.
I have read a few blogs today (mostly pugs) and the meme seems to be position palin for 2012 as the warrior princess ready to reclaim the heartland.
That said it would ensure obama his second term.
I reckon so. She has no chance.
More redneck supporters at another Palin rally, this time a guy with a monkey doll with an Obama bumper sticker on it. Lovely.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/11/politics/fromtheroad/entry4515246.shtml
Investigator’s Report: Palin Violated State Ethics Law
The long-awaited report of retired prosecutor Steve Branchflower, who was hired by the Alaska legislature to investigate alleged misconduct on the part of Alaska’s governor, Sarah Palin was issued yesterday. The full report is available here. The main conclusion is that Palin abused her power as governor to settle a personal vendetta and that in doing so broke the Alaska ethics law. The report contains the statement: “I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110 (a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act.” In theory, she could be impeached and fined for this behavior, but it is doubtful that the Republican-controlled state legislature will sanction her at all.
As we have pointed out many times, be careful what you wish for; you might get it. McCain has long wished for some other news story to drown out the endless stories about the economic turmoil. Finally he got it: the Palin abuse-of-power story is being covered in detail by the Washington Post, New York Times, LA Times, USA Today, and just about every other national paper in the country as well as most of the foreign press.
If you haven’t been following the story, known as Troopergate, here is an executive summary. Palin’s sister, Molly, was involved in a bitter divorce and child custody fight with her former husband, state trooper Mike Wooten. Palin, who supports family values, wanted to help her sister in the custody battle by causing her ex brother-in-law to be unemployed. So she asked the state commissioner of public safety, Walt Monegan, to fire Wooten. Monegan refused. Wooten had been involved in some misconduct earlier, but Monegan told Palin that Wooten had been disciplined for it already and the case was closed. Monegan further told Palin to get off Wooten’s case because that might be seen as an ethics violation. Palin took his advice and assigned her husband, Todd Palin, the job of getting state employees to work on getting Wooten fired. One of the attempts was a telephone call that was (lawfully) recorded and later released. Branchflower found over a dozen specific incidents where state employees took action to try to get Wooten fired. Ultimately, Palin got frustrated with the process and fired Monegan. This firing was what started the investigation.
Palin denies all wrongdoing and says the report is politically motivated. However, the investigation was started before Palin was chosen to be the vice-presidential nominee, the Republicans control the state legislature, and the report was released yesterday by a unanimous vote of the bipartisan Joint Legislative Council, which had oversight on the investigation. The investigator, Steve Branchflower, is a retired prosecutor with a reputation for integrity. None of these facts suggest a political hatchet job. In fact, the president of the Alaska state senate, Lyda Green, a Republican from Palin’s home town of Wasilla, said: “The problem with power is that people pay attention to it. And it’s very easy to get beside yourself and use it in the wrong way. And we do have to leave personal business at home.”
Palin’s favourability rating of 36/49 in that poll is telling. Putting her at the top of the ticket 4 years from now would be suicide unless she has a brain transplant IMO. Sure she solidifies the base, but with the Republican base growing ever smaller that doesn’t really help much while she alienates the rest of the country at the same time.
Palin got the expected ‘welcome’ in Philadelphia lol. Whoever is running the McCain/Palin campaign should be shot. They simply don’t have a clue.
http://www.eandppub.com/2008/10/hockey-mom-pali.html
The latest Reuters/CSpan/Zogby national daily tracking poll has come out early Sunday morning in the US. Obama has moved out to his biggest lead ever, 6 points.
Obama 49 (up 1)
McCain 43 (down 1)
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1583
Significant poll since Obama’s lead is more than twice the margin of error.
But given that, it’s incredible that McCain is still on 43%. To me that means that that group of people are something of a baseline for McCain that are unlikely to leave if they haven’t left at this stage. So he really only needs to grab a few more percentage points off Obama or ensure that 6%(?) of Obama voters don’t come out to vote.
So when they say “hockey” in the US they mean ICE hockey? – I didn’t realise that. Don’t they play, like, you know, REAL hockey?
Reasons why racially motivated voters will not be significant in the election results
That IS real hockey. What transpires here in Australia is Field Hockey.
Well if so, Andrew Bolt is already on board – he suggested on Insiders this morning that she has been a star, and will be the only one to come out of the Republican campaign unscathed.
Let us hope she is the Republican candidate in 2012. She is hardly a centre candidate. Pres Obama will slaughter her.
Field hockey is real hockey. Older than ice hockey, played by more countries than ice hockey, was in the Olympics before ice hockey and is still in the Olympics.
As I said earlier, even Latham got 38%. The true Party diehards would vote for whoever the primaries decided to dish out.
Has Bolt been right about ANYTHING in the last 5 years?
Sure it can be older and I know you guys call it “real” hockey. Most people world round call the game you play with the black and white round ball “football”. Others, including myslf, call it soccer. Its all relative and depends on where you grew up and what you’re used to. I understand you call it real hockey even if I use the words field hockey, no worries. If the tone of my original post upset you, I’m sorry for that.
In the USA, they play probably as much field hockey as they play lawn bowls [next to none] so its all new to me. It really depends, as I said, on what you are used to.
Sports is like that, you can get geocentric about it and you only look at it through the rose coloured glasses of how you grew up
In Alaska for part of the year field hockey would be ice hockey.
Alaska is a bad word in some quarters right now
………
There’s no way Palin will get a run in four years. Being a VP running mate in a losing team is a one-way ticket to the political graveyard. I could only find one losing VP candidate who ever eventually became POTUS and that was FDR. Palin is no FDR.
I thought Obama was no FDR?
How many FDR comparisons have been made this campaign? Some kind of record I reckon.
Do they play lawn bowls in the US at all? I thought it was strictly British Empire.
http://www.uslba.org/index.html
At least a few do.
No, not at all that I was aware of when I lived in the US. However, I googled on it after I moved here and found a small pocket of lawn bowls interest in southern California, can’t remember where. Must have been British expats?
Dario 397
Well there was that time on Insiders on Nov 25 when he declared Peter Costello the future of the Liberal Party… oh wait…
402 Oz – references to Harry Truman would be running a close second.
Goodness me, there’s hope for the US yet then. If only they could learn to make tea properly…
Ponting out – Jai Bharat!
… and beer.
Ya all will be happy to know “Sarah Palin is no fool”.
Warning article in Australian
Come on, you have to feel sorry for the old codger.
sorry fredn, he gets no pity from me – he didn’t have to choose her.
LOL!
Oh dear… if Obama wins, a Palin tilt in 2012 would be against Obama.
Who is the last Presidential candidate (before McCain) to be rolled on their V.P. selection?
On channel 7’s special money program tonight, David Koch said that the world needs leadership in this crisis and it isn’t getting it from that lame duck president Dubya Bush. Onya Kochie, someone has had the guts to say it finally.
Bolt was hilarious on Insiders this morning. He reckons Rudd should stop wasting money on infrastructure, which will create jobs, given the global circumstances. LOL
Grog, I suspect he didn’t.
So he wants a continuation of the Howard government’s infrastructure policies.
Ferraro helped Mondale to his defeat in 1984 (although he was always going to lose).
Eagleton was the beginning of the end of McGovern in 1972 – McGovern, after dumping Eagleton due to the fact that he was found to have undergone electro-shock therapy earlier in his lief, was rejected by 6 other VP candidates before Shriver agreed to join his ticket.
I think McCain is wishing he picked Romney, Lieberman, Ridge, or Spector about now.
Yes Shows On.
Rudd has just announced in breaking news that infrastructure projects will be brought forward to create jobs in this time of crisis.
Experts reckon unemployment could reach upto 8%. However China is expected to continue to grow at around 9%.
Too true. Oh well, I guess he’s paying the price for all those years of “being a maverick”.
Well her son with DS will be four… (as will be her grandchild)
The Palin is pick by McCain is very similar in style to the Lieberman pick by Gore in 2000.
Both were picks by candidates trailing in the polls, both picked minority candidates and both were done in an attempt to capture a section of the base that had been wavering. In McCain’s case, it was to rally the conservative base of the GOP – for Gore, it was to convince moderate and conservative Dems that the “limited morality” of the Clinton era was over. Both were also relative outsiders, who were not seriously considered as possible VP candidates.
However, this is where the similarities end for McCain. Lieberman helped resuscitate the then-fledgling Gore campaign, held his own versus the more experience Cheney in the VP debate and almost help Gore across the line. Palin, of course, has been rather less helpful to the McCain camp (although she did rally the base…)
* Romney is a multimillionaire, a mormon, a phony and a bore.
* Lieberman and Specter are Jews, pro-choice and liberals on most issues
* Ridge was a total dud at Homeland Security
The Repub base would have stayed home if McCain had picked any of those. If it wasn’t Palin, he’d have done better with Huckabee. If he wanted a woman, he’d have done better with Senator Hutchison, except she’s 65.
Here I thought Spector was the producer of “You’ve lost that Lovin’ Feeling”
I reckon ‘experts’ are full of it
He also presumably would have been better than both McCain and Obama at a time of a financial crisis. But, as they say, hindsight is always 20/20…
Ridge is also pro-choice. And when does being a Jew going to be a problem with the very pro-Israel GOP base?
After watching some of his show on Fox News, I’m becoming more and more convinced that he would have been the best choice. While I think his economic and social policies are stupid, he comes across as both competent AND earnest – 2 vital qualities in a US President. I still don’t know why he was never a serious contender for the VP position – he’s popular with the base and he’s friends with McCain. He would also have helped lock up some of the wavering Southern states (unlike Palin only helping in AK and ND…)
Adam
Who should they be grooming for the next run?
Swing Lowe
I really like Huckabee. I don’t agree with a single thing he says or believes in but I still like him.
They’re pro-Israel because they see it as the fulfillment of biblical prophesy. That doesn’t mean they like Jews. They believe that the conversion of the Jews is a precondition for the end of days.
My sentiments exactly. I know what he is saying is rubbish, but yet I’m still drawn to listen to him (maybe it’s the Arkansas accent…
)
I wonder if this was the same attraction of Ronald Reagan – you may not agree with what he says, but you couldn’t help like the guy (I’m too young to remember, so feel free to correct me).
Swing Lowe while i disagree with some of his issues…i could hardly say i dislike him id say you’d have to be really anti Huck to hate the guy he’s too charming.
Dio they should be grooming if they lose…Bobby Jindal the Louisiana Governor.
Need they groom anyone? 4 years ago was Obama on the radar? or even Palin (ok 4 months ago she wasn’t even on the radar).
But let’s assume it’s against Prez Obama, it’d be harder to run someone “unkown”. Like the Libs going against Rudd with the whole “union bosses” line, the Obama is inexperienced and of dodgy character line will only be able to be used once. In 4 years time it will beon his record as Prez and really nothing else.
OK Dario. Maybe experts are full of it. Personally, I get the feeling that our pollies are not playing politics with this. I am sensing it’s a little more serious than expected by the general consensus???
I think the market will fall again next week? I reckon the ASX could drop to as low as 3000?
I don’t care what anybody says, extreme conservative ideology got us into this!
Other possible contenders for 2012 GOP nominees (assuming Obama wins, of course):
Gov. Sanford (SC) – will rally the conservative base
Gov. Crist (FL) – swing state moderate/conservative with appeal to hispanics
Sen. Brownback (KS) – will also rally the conservative base
Sen. Graham (SC) – southern state conservative with solid experience
Sanford…no appeal.
Crist…too old and liberal.
Brownback too conservative.
Graham…would be another bob dole.
Jindal should be the nominee if the Republicans lose.
Also wouldn’t Hilldog challenge Obama in 2012 if he won?
Doubt it – unless he totally balls up the whole thing (though comparing him to GWB, it’d be hard to actually know just what is a balls up performance by a President).
The depression ushered in decades of democratic majorities. Looking back one could say right wing nutters stuff it up, people forget and they stuff it up again.
Nice quote off the Doonsebury site:
Grog
Obama gave the keynote speech at the 2004 DNC. Even then he was touted as a presidential contender. He’s been groomed since then. Even Palin has been on the map all this year if you read electoral-vote.
Glen
Even Hillary wouldn’t challenge a sitting POTUS.
Glen
What about our guy Pawlenty?
bumpkin, if the Democrats can put a half black man up there why cant the Republicans put an Indian American up there…he’d be the Republican Obama.
Jindal is some kind of religious nutter I believe.
please explain?
80% of Americans are Adam.
The 1929 crash was caused by protectionism. There is nearly a direct correlation between the sliding share prices and the passage of a bill through the U.S. Senate to unilaterally increase tariffs. Various countries retaliated by increasing their tariffs against U.S. goods, which killed U.S. company profits, investment and employment.
Like Sarah Palin?
442 Diogenes – good point, I forgot about his speech.
Jindal is worse than Palin. He’s performed exorcisms.
Believing in things with no proof, just about deserves being called that. I respect their decision to believe things like that but i think they are very unwise. Yes, Palin and Bush included but Obama also for he is a religious christian too ShowsOn. Its feeble that any person running for office in the USA has to believe in God.
No, he’s a very extreme Catholic. He practises exorcism and faith healing. He is also a creationist (which is contrary to Catholic doctrine) and opposes abortion in all circumstances whatsoever. He’d be a hard sell in California
+1
Yeah, Palin has only been de-witched.
The Republicans havent had a shot at California since Reagan and probably never will win the State again.
Plawenty is just as hardcore christian…see that’s why i backed Giuliani he did not flogging religion to get elected. Also he’s a moderate Republican and that’s what id be if i were an American.
Since when the Republicans try and win in California?
This is the same as Palin.
Plus, the Catholic Church still actually believes in creationism. They think that someone or something started evolution, which means they don’t understand and / or believe in evolution, which means they believe in a version of creationism.
Bush won there in 1988.
Unless they get rid of article two
Of course Catholics believe that God created man and the earth and the universe. But the Catholic Church officially accepts the findings of science about the age of the earth and the evolution of species. Protestant creationists don’t. So Jindal, by siding with the extreme creationists, would seem to be plus catholique que le pape, which is what we would expect from a convert.
Yep – “No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President;…”
Such a stupid law, and one which has zero chance of ever being overturned.
ShowsOn yes but Reagan was still in the picture and campaining for Bush there so its no wonder!
Poor Arnie
Unless Arnold Vinick decides to run the Republicans wont win the State of California any time soon.
Glen – Vinick will soon be Obama’s Sec of State, so I can’t see him running.
nooooo
The problem the Repubs now have is that the gap between what their base believes and what the voters they need to win a national election believe is now a yawning chasm. McCain was the only candidate they had who could even hope to bridge it, and he’s sadly past it.
The Repub’s should focus on 2016. Surely there’s some young DA or congressman/woamn who in 8 years will be 40-45 and semi-electable.
Afterall Biden will be like Cheney and won’t ever run for the top job himself, so that eleciton will be the next realistic chance, all things being equal.
I hasten to add that the election is not over until November 4.
Yes good point.
Obviously if McCain does the impossible and wins, Palin will run in 2012.. against…???
Chelsea in 2016!
Think of the debates between Hilldog and Palin…..wowie!
BTW is their any pollbludger who doesn’t think Sarah Palin is attractive?
Glen you’re so predictable.
Yes, and this is creationism. Any ‘theory’ designed to explain how people exist that relies on a supernatural force is by definition an unscientific creationist theory.
This doesn’t make sense. Evolutionary theory explains how species evolved by naturalistic means only. If the Catholic church actually believed this, they would have to say God played absolutely no role in the existence of all plants and animals – including people. How could they do taht and still propose that God created man?
The Vatican either honestly misunderstands what they have endorsed when they say they agree with evolution, or – more likely – they go out of their way to misunderstand it for pragmatic and / or political reasons. Whatever it is they have endorsed it is not the actual Theory of Evolution that unifies all of biology. Instead they seem to have endorsed some watered down thing that isn’t actually the Theory of Evolution as it is taught in universities throughout the world.
If the Vatican was honest, it would still oppose the Theory of Evolution. Instead they pretend to support it. I guess they do this to pretend they have modernised, and are no longer the nutters who opposed Galileo’s heliocentric model of the solar system.
Well at the Victorian Liberal State Council that was the opinion of many.
BTW i am pissed Turnbull did not make a key note address i know we were amending the constitution but politicians hardly make themselves available for speeches even to party members.
As long as she doesn’t speak
No. Her voice grates on my ears.
I also find people with no desire to learn about the world irritating, rather than attractive.
an apt way to phrase the question, for she truly is a double negative in my eyes.
Palin could still get to the Senate though if McCain lost.
To suggest the Republicans won’t be in office again until 2016 is utterly ridiculous.
The Democrats will over the next four years (presuming Obama wins and barring a massive shift before midterms) have:
- a massive majority in the house
- an unbreakable majority in the Senate, close enough to 60 seats to give them the sort of power JWH had over the past few years
- a Democratic president elected in a massive win on the premise of changing Washington
Big chance. No excuse. Absolutely nobody to blame (Howard could at least have a crack at the states now and then). As glorious as it seems now, it so easily could spell disaster.
If the economy continues to slip side down the toilet, if congress continues with its record low numbers, if Obama can’t live up to the hype he’s s…et then this built up power could be destroyed as quickly as it was accumulated.
Which is the beauty of politics really, and one of the reasons I suspect you’re all hooked.
Having said that, I’ve liked Obama from the start (liked McCain too but his general election campaign didn’t live up to the ideas and beliefs I thought it would) so I hope he manages to pull it off. But if they stuff this up they could collapse in a pathetic heap just as the GOP has. The entire population hasn’t suddenly given up on the idea of free markets overnight.
I think she’ll either go the Senate or forget it all and go for the money in the media ala Coulter. The Senate is more likely.
Exactly. The fact that there was widespread anger at the bailout package indicates that the United States is still very much a country of free marketeers. I have no problem with that, except to say that a free market cannot operate properly without transparency and protections against fraud. Regulation should aim to quell those concerns, not socialise the losses of reckless investors.
Adam:
Clinton won in ‘92 mostly because he was a southern moderate, and thus was acceptable to enough of the population. Do you think that a northern liberal democrat has an almost impossible task to win a presidential election? [although Obama will likely prove me wrong]
GP:
It took about 40 years from the Great Depression to when Thatcher was able to revive monetarism – when people lose faith they lose it for a long time
GP
well said,
I hope the MSM focusses on “transparency and protections against fraud.”
the lack of proper oversights caused this mess.
True, but she would have to learn to speak using proper sentences.
And with a central bank that properly REGULATES the price of credit.
Free markets don’t work properly without some regulation.
That’s what he thought two weeks ago.
Free markets don’t work properly without some regulation.
wasnt the exact opposite argument ie that the only free market is the one free of regulation.
This persuasive but fatally flawed logic spawned PPP’s and the various credit instruments including junk bonds,hedges etc etc.
The Neocon ideology has as one of its foundation the belief in “freedom”,though the freedom of course is limited to what is considered “free” by the neocons.
I think this is silly, because all developed countries with market economies have central banks that effectively set the price of money. Doesn’t that count as necessary regulation?
Saying that the only truly free market is one completely free of regulation assumes that consumers know exactly what they are getting when they buy a good or service. However I think often consumers simply aren’t qualified enough to know (say when they have to pay for a medical procedure), or only know if something was actually worth buying after they have bought it.
And how do free markets help people who don’t have enough money to exercise their free market ‘rights’? That sounds like a bizarre definition of freedom.
Sometimes a overwhelming victory that makes a mess of the government is a good thing if it forces a change in personnel and a re think of policy and platform
I narrower victory keeps things the same and the loser puts it down to bad luck aka the Liberal party and, thus they have no impetus to change.
So if Obama wins in a landslide, do you think this will encourage the Republicans to moderate their policies? Or will they still continue trying to appeal to their extremist base?
shows on
I merely was talking about the “ideology”,its application of course is constrained by real world controls (except in the case of gitmo of course).
No market is free shows, you know that, i know that but if you can convince joe/josephine average that your side is on the side of “freedom’ you can get away with , ohhh something like what we are seeing now
The NEo-Con understanding of freedom is even more screwed up than suggested. Think of all the freedoms they have trashed in the “war on terror”. They have put “free-markets” ahead of individual freedom, which is absurd. The whole impetus for having free market economies came as a means of achieving the end of individual freedom.
But I agree that the population hasn’t given up on free-markets. We have seen a shift to the centre, not the left. If it were the latter, the Greens would be doing much better, but they’re not.
People will be paying the bill for this mess for some years in the US (assuming it is fixed), so if the republicans don’t moderate, they might still be suffering the consequences in 2012.
An overwhelming loss ought to indicate that they are a long way away from what the population think and want. Thus to be relevant again requires some reinvention.
TP @494. It’s my contention that fundamentalists tend to believe that rather than their ideas being in need of reform or refreshment and movement to the people, it is their right to force the people to move their beliefs to the fundamentalists. This is one of the reasons they so readily resort to violence and compulsion.
Michael
also having someone/something to demonise helps. eg muslims,commies,etc
Rasmussen national tracking poll:
Obama 51 (down 1)
McCain 45 (steady)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Rasmussen poll question on who will win the election finds that 55% surveyed think Obama will win, against just 15% for McCain
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/55_expect_obama_victory_only_15_believe_mccain_will_win
No 486
Absolutely not. Central banks should be abolished and the value of money should be congruent with the gold standard.
Ron Paul & Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. made the argument quite well:
Makes a whole lot of sense, even more so in light of this shocking financial crisis.
No 484
They lost faith because it became reassuringly clear that the socialist experiment hadn’t worked.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/playing_the_race_card.html
It has always been there from the beginning. For many of us, this is nothing new. We have been saying that from the beginning because that is America. That is the reality. That is why Obama has never pulled away with 15+.
The expectation is so high now that Obama will win. I just wonder what will happen if Obama loses. Will there be riots in the street because of the “Obama Effect”, namely “an imposed defeat from the jaw of victory”.
Don’t know what kind of drugs the campaign put McCain on when he got out of bed on Sunday morning but it must have been good stuff (midday campaign stop in Iowa)
Finnigans @ 501,
See my post #392 this same thread on this same topic. There is nothing to worry about in this regard. Cheers
ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, October 12, 2008 at 9:01 pm | Permalink
“The 1929 crash was caused by protectionism.”
It all happened under republican presidents. History has recorded the roaring twenties and I suspect it will record the roaring noutghies. The roaring twenties was all over when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was introduced (1930).
I tend to agree with Marriner S. Eccles,Chairman of the Federal Reserve from November 1934 to February 1948:
Unfortunately it all sound all too familiar, and unfortunately the right wing nutters haven’t changed, thy forget wealth has to be distributed somehow.
But that was not the point I was trying to make, the name of republican’ candidate in the coming decades is not going to be that important.
I can’t see Jindal being the Republican nominee in 2012.
Firstly, he’s only now 37. Even in four years time, at 41, he’d still be aiming to become the youngest President ever.
Secondly, Lousiana elections come at an inopportune time: November 2011. 12 months out from the presidential election. I don’t think he can realistically expect to run for re-election as governor whilst simultaneously waging a presidential primary campaign. And surely he’d prefer to bank a 2nd term as governor rather than wage a long-shot tilt at the presidency.
I won’t speculate much on his race or his brand of religion, as I really don’t know how that would play. Though I tend to think it might not be such a big deal. He appeals to the white baptists of Louisiana, so why not Republicans elsewhere?
I see Romney and Pawlenty as the two main contenders for the GOP in 2012. Jindal would be in the mix as a running mate.
The latest news out of the States is that Palestinans in the Gaza Strip are purchasing Obama t-shirts. This must send shockwaves in the Jewish community in the key state of Florida with its rich electoral college votes. The Jewish state of Israel is under constant attack from Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. For Palestinians to be for Obama the question one asks is what kind of two state solution is he promising the Palestinians. One commentator thought the reason he was so popular in this muslim country is that he studied in the worlds largest muslim nation Indonesia.
In the election years of 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000 a president won the election but lost the popular vote will this happen in 2008?
The US economy may have tanked somewhat and Americans are disappointed with their 401ks. However The United States real economy is based on Oil and as Billionaire Donald Trump has said oil should be about 20 dollars a barrel. This years oil shock was similiar to the early 1970’s and Obama vague election promise to make America energy independent is somewhat dangerous. John McCain on the other hand has a foreign policy that ensures America has a presence in the Middle East and Central Asia where a majority of Americas oil comes from.
Vague promises on Energy independence and a belief in so called Global warming and climate change is going to damage Americas future. Crude and Carbon is what helps make America the richest and most powerful nation on Earth.
It’s his middle name I tells ya!
Obama can win without winning Florida, so long as he wins Ohio. On current trends he will probably win both.
LOL! What about the TWO STATE solution being proposed by the current Republican administration, and by McCain / Palin!?
One commentator thought that John McCain was popular in a communist countries because he was held as a P.O.W. in a Vietnam.
No.
What? How is the U.S.’s economy “based on oil”, they import far more than they export.
What are you going on about? It would be BENEFICIAL for the U.S. economy to be based on renewable energy sources.
Being so reliant on thug regimes in Saudi Arabia sounds extremely DANGEROUS to me!
Um, you realise that John McCain also believes in “so called Global warming”.
Incorrect. Technological innovation is what makes them the richest and most powerful nation on earth.
Stop being so f’ing hilarious.
Paul Nash @ 508:
Oil will one day run.
It’s appears quite a strange concept to say that because you recognize this, and at the same time wish to cut dependence on such oil, and make your country into a more efficient maker and user of alternatives, that it somehow makes you dangerous. Sorry but that is an absurd position to have.
Governments all over the world are doing exactly that.
Should of been “oil will one day run out “.
Glen salivates:
Glen try VPILF.com – it’s made for you
It doesn’t matter, if Obama is President when this happens it will be the start of the end times.
EVERYONE: Get ready to repent for your lack of oil.
Paul Nash
So your view is; it doesn’t matter if the middle east can sell their oil to the rest of the world for more, the US has the the ability to bomb the shit out of the place until they sell their oil to us for $20 a barrel and we should elect a president that promises to do so.
And your big pitch for the electors vote is: Don’t vote for Obama because people I consider nasty buy “vote for obama” tee shits.
I really am starting to feel sorry for McCain, the poor guy may be old and lacks the stamina to bring the republican party back under control but he does have some brains. It must be so disheartening to see this sort of rubbish.
If he lived in the U.S. he would have his own TV show like Mike Huckabee:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/12/mike-huckabee-floats-theo_n_133930.html
Socrates
#137
You wrote a personal post to me 2 days ago and I take issue with th innuendo contained
You claim I ‘ignore any criticism of my preference’ However because you already knew th blatant reverse ie I’ve said I hav no preference (& don’t support either candidate as McCain is a dud & Obama is a phoney) , one wonders therefore whether you deliberately made this inaccurate innuendo to smear Ayers comments here , but it was an false statement in any event
You also then ignore that both th Rezko & Ayers asociations with Obama were specifically brought up by Hillary Clinton to Obama in there TV Primary Debates 5 months ago ! …and that that resulted FROM detailed Ayers & Rezko information THEN published by quality credible Media like New York Times , ABC News , CBS Media (which is also when & where I got my info from) So I am simply repeating that same credibile Media data etc , and not from “talking points” so that aparent innuendo was also false
As to your criticism of my lingos , which numerous previous posters beforehand hav also done , I as always do not respond to that
Perhaps your apparent discomfort arose because I’ve commenced posting info on th th unrepentant (I have more quotes on that) terrorist William Ayers multiple relationships over 6 years with Obama Although discussing thiis subject has been now impaired by misleading Obama and McCain “narratives” of events , does not diminish examining Obama’s fitness or character …even if th economic meltdown is no 1 issue & th likely election decider
Perhaps th mere thought of ANY relationship whatsoever of Obama with th terrorist Wiliam Ayers to Obama causes all Obama suporters extreme discomfort…well those Ayers multiple relationships & nature ar far more than Obama supporters believe , although less than Republicans believe
But then Obama supporters reliance on internet sites claiming to be news or claiming to be facts sites or fact cheks , as if they do not craft what they present , they make 00 look credible in comparison
fredn
“I really am starting to feel sorry for McCain, the poor guy may be old ”
didnt he ride with teddy roosevelts rough riders?
Obama doesn’t know his European History.
In the second debate last week he claimed Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine were former Soviet sattelites. In fact they were former Soviet republics.
Americans don’t want an inexperienced and unknowledgeable administration they want an expert republican one in John McCain.
Yes, this is true.
True, you’re simply hysterically anti-Obama.
You are just repeating over and over and over Republican talking points. Rezko and Ayers was raised at the START OF THIS YEAR, and Obama still won the primary. It is old news Ronster, just move on to something else so we don’t all die of boredom.
Well, it just makes your posts very difficult to read. I assume you make post so you can communicate things to other people?
You mean like McCain associating himself with a man who blamed Americans for the terrorist attacks on September 11th? I haven’t heard McCain apologise for that yet.
This is incomprehensible.
Nor do you it seems.
Hahahhahah this just proves that YOU haven’t studied international relations.
So why don’t you go and repeat this over and over and over to some Americans?
519: And you’re trying to me that Sarah Palin knows what she is doing. ! ?
My 11 year old son knows more than she does on world affairs.
The Global credit crunch drama can be dated back to August 2007. How come all of sudden and weeks out from a US presidential election the stock markets come tumbling down. Investment bankers have proved in this crisis to be questionable characters take for instance our own Malcolm Turnbull a Liberal.
Conservatives have a right to question whether Liberals on Wall Street waited 13 months before the collapse?
Because President Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are incompetent.
You are confusing the American and Australian meanings of the term “Liberal”.
In the U.S. “Liberal” means left wing, in Australian it means varying degrees of conservatism.
“unknowledgeable” – this is a word?
I direct everyone to my post at @499.
523: Now I’m positive you are here to give us all a good laugh. !
The credit crunch is a result of de-regulation by the conservatives in America that allowed billions in loans to people who never had a chance of paying them back. They on sold that debt to anyone who would listen.
The Americans were warned years ago that this practise was going to lead to trouble. There are at least two governors of states in the Us that went to Washington and told the feds that this would lead to what has happened now.
“More than five years ago, in April 2003, the attorneys general of two small states traveled to Washington with a stern warning for the nation’s top bank regulator…
Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Tom Miller of Iowa headed a committee of state officials concerned about new forms of “predatory” lending. They urged Hawke to give states more latitude to limit exorbitant interest rates and fine-print fees. “People out there are struggling with oppressive loans,” Cooper recalls saying.”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/12/183119/01/475/599565
The feds didn’t listen.
And who determines how much gold is worth how much currency!? A new central bank based on a gold standard, which implies regulation!
The problem that Paul and Rockwell identify is a central bank that didn’t jack up interest rates! In other words, a central bank that didn’t do its job properly. Compare that to OUR central bank which increased interest rates last year to curb inflation.
But anyway, people who think Keyenes was a communist have absolutely no credibility to discuss economics.
I direct everyone to this hilarious summary of the Sunday political talk shows:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/12/tv-soundoff-sunday-talkin_n_133937.html
Also if the Republicans lose i wouldnt rule out Sarah Palin running for the Republican nomination.
I hope so, she’s a push over.
529 – I would.
Oh, no fair!
Paul Nash @ 523
I hope I have the story straight so far.
The liberals on wall street destroyed billions of dollars of their own wealth to stop McCain bombing the shit out of the middle east in an attempt to have the middle east sell oil to the US for 20 dollars a barrel.
I’m looking forward to further updates.
All done to stop Palestinians from wearing Obama t-shirts.
PN 523 – You must be kidding. People like Warren Buffett havbe been warning of this since at least 2003. Read some serious economics blogs to see how much earlier than that some government officials were warning of the unregulated derivative market.
GP 526 – The gold standard? Come on GP, you’re smarter than that. The gold standard saw much more government intervention in markets than the proposed solution to this episode does. Its dead and gone. World money markets depend on a balance of merchandise and currency trade, not some arbitrary price on a particular commodity.
For a long term solution we need regulation of the bits of the market that flew outside normal reporting mechanisms – CDOs and CDSs. Michael West (SMH) has a good story that indicates how much even some Australian banks hold in these.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/time-to-come-clean-20081013-4z8w.html
Note that this does not mean any of these banks are at risk, especially after Rudd’s guarantee. But it does illustrate the extent of the problem. I said earlier today that Commonwealth, Westpac, Bendigo and BOQ would be good buying – and they were
-but I didn’t mention ANZ or NAB. West’s article explains why.
Bottom line – we need governments to provide the things markets don’t provide (roads, schools, hospitals), markets to provide the rest, and government regulation to ensure that they do so honestly and without fraud. Simple really.
Actually Showson, technically Ukraine, Latvia and Estonia were not Soviet satellites. To be a satellite, they had to be one of the countries surrounding the Soviet Union and under the influence of the USSR. However, Ukraine, Latvia and Estonia were all member republics of the USSR. Ukraine were even a founding member of the USSR.
What about clean power sources? Do you think the carbon trading will ensure the market does that? Or should the Government use some of its infrastructure fund to invest in clean power in say public / private partnerships?
Belarus is though.
Shows on at 524,
Liberal is liberal whether in the US or Australia. Australias Liberal Party is a Liberal Party its the National Party thats Conservative.
Incorrect. The Liberal party has liberal and conservative factions, wthe the conservative faction dominant.
The National party is just full of agrarian socialists who want to privatise profits and socialise losses.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Mailer-That-Put-the-Fi-by-Rob-Kall-081012-483.html
Obama is spending 5 of the last 7 days of the campaign in Ohio (per a story just broadcast on Sky)
“Conservatives have a right to question whether Liberals on Wall Street waited 13 months before the collapse?”
Yes, I heard this riff in an exchange between Young Liberals at Hotel Mosman recently. This is the kind of bargain basement conspiracy theory you could buy at Wal-Mart (in a package deal with a Ruger 10/22 Standard Carbine).
Very interesting, he must see it has the key state if he happens to lose Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada.
I know this is probably an ignorant rant, and I apologise in advance to those of you in these jobs but here goes. I was reading about Thorstein Veblen last night and he made a lot of sense. Apologies for the mixed metaphors as well.
Isn’t the underlying problem with the global economy all these people working the markets? A huge number of bright well-educated people go into these businesses and work very hard. But they PRODUCE NOTHING. They swap junk bonds, hedge, speculate and exploit variations in the market which they also try to create, but they are actually doing nothing to improve productivity of any country. They’re not driving a bus, cooking a meal or teaching a kid. They are swapping numbers on computers with each other. They are like an enormous load of parasites sucking the blood of an animal, the animal being the productive economy. When the animal gets sick, they’ll all fall off but when it recovers, they’ll reattach. They create a house of sand which falls over peroiodically and then they’ll start again when they start collecting enough sand.
Showson @ 540
Thats right just like the Republican Party the Nationals are Republicans and the liberals are Democrats.
ShowsOn
Despite the unpopularity in NSW I think things like power (and communications) can be private provided government controlls the distribution network. So for power, private power stations are fine, if the line network and grid stays owned by government. In communications sectors that are highly competitive (eg mobile phones) work fine in private hands, but the Telstra fixed line system should never have been privatised because it is a natural monopoly.
If the government gets the carbon pricing right there is no reason private companies can’t build green power. To give them their due, Origin have already built quite a few wind farms.
Obama’s lead in the polls is now beyond the usual margins of error. Even a 2% Bradley effect would have him slightly in front of McCain: Obama’s lead beyond the Bradley effect
I’m not sure how accurate that report would be… I doubt they have planned that far ahead given how the polls can change from day to day
Dario 541
That is what I have been saying for weeks – October is reporting season in the US! Everyone is going to find out how much 8 years of Bush has cost them before they vote. Its not McCain’s fault, but he is going to cop the blame.
Inner Westie&543
“Yes, I heard this riff in an exchange between Young Liberals at Hotel Mosman recently. This is the kind of bargain basement conspiracy theory you could buy at Wal-Mart (in a package deal with a Ruger 10/22 Standard Carbine).”
It is the young Liberals, but it is sad that the Liberal party has come to that.
Diogenes 545
Agreed! That is why many of these peopel are scared – they fear their cosy little scam will come to an end with greater regulation. Not only do they not work or produce anything, they add to the cost of necesary financial transactions. They are a drain on the real economy. I have worked on PPPs projects where financiers wanrted anywhere from 6% to 8% of the cost of the project just to arrange the finance – not supply it!. By comparison, the total fees for us engineers to design and supervise construction was about 5%. The former task involved six months work for a small team. The latter (engineering design and supervision) might have been three years work for 50 people. The fees are obscene.
Hi all, good to see conversation has moved along here in recent months, particularly among those still afraid of the blank slate that is our vapid muslim terrorist candidate. Sheesh.
Wasn’t Ohio were the Repugnants stole the 2004 election?
The polls at the moment are dismal for the McCain camp at the moment.
The economy is the number one issue at the moment however Americans are smart enough to know that they are already heading for a long and deep Recession.
Obama or McCain can’t turn around the economic fortunes come Janurary 20 2009. Both would be able to achieve little in the short term and during the life of their Presidency they plan to tackle the economic outlook will depend on Congress.
So with Congress definately controlled by the Democrats a better insurance for Americans would be a Republican congress to have more checks and balances in relation to Economic solutions.
Sorry i mean a Republican Presidency.
One of the more inept statements I have seen
I can trump that: many are wearing David Beckham football shirts too.
The economic situation is envitable so maybe the issue that should decide this Presidency is the issue of character.
Obama’s association with a homegrown terrorist must frighten Americans given the climate post 9/11.
Another interesting footnote in the character of Obama is how he managed to obtain his house in a wealthy neighbourhood of Chicago. Republican strategists should also look into Obamas associations during his time studing in the worlds largest Muslim nation Indonesia.
Are you Ron with better spelling and grammar?
although its ‘inevitable’ not ‘envitable’, so it probably is Ron
Who cares about bend it like Beckham his only famous because hes married to one of the Spice girls. (Posh Spice).
Its definately not a candidate for President of the worlds premier democracy.
Book royalties, I would think…
Maybe Democrats should then probe further into exactly what John McCain told his captors during his 6 years in the Hanoi Hilton…
I think you may like this David Brooks article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/opinion/07brooks.html
Keep in mind he is a moderate Republican.
PN
Can you imagine ANY circumstances under which you would not endorse the republican candidate, or conversely accept there might be some reasons to endorse a democrat? Would you still support Bush if he could be relected?
If your answer is yes, then you should just go and get a job as a rep campaign worker.
This is the first thing you’ve written that I can agree with.
Not anymore than John McCain who associated himself with Jerry Falwell, a guy who blamed 9/11 partly on Americans.
LOL!
How dare you say such things about Cindy McCain!
If the candidate was a Muslim, because according to P.N., all Muslims are evil.
JFK’s Catholicism was an issue, good to see we have moved on to victimising different religions. I guess that is what we call ‘progress’.
I’m insulted about the comments about my spelling and grammar but then again I only went to a Regional university unlike you Liberal elite from Sandstone Universities.
PN
Still avoiding my question about whether there is ANY democrat candidate you coudl endorse or vice versea on any republicans you wouldn’t? Are you an employee of a political party or candidate?
Paul Nash @ 559
He talk to this guy that never went to jail (Adam liked that one), he might have seen a Muslim in Indonesia and he owns a house may be fodder for character assassination, but your conspiracy theories are a lot more fun.
Come on we have the liberals on wall street destroying billion of their own wealth for political ends, surely you can move the rhetoric up from there.
Glad to hear it
This is a serious question: Why should it bother me if you are insulted by something? If everyone spent all of their time going out of their way to avoid insulting someone, somewhere, how would society function? I think it is inevitable that people will insult each other, because different people value different things differently. What we should do is learn to be tolerant of differences. Because I see people offending each other as inevitable in a society based around liberty.
Anyway, I didn’t go to a sandstone uni, nor do I teach at a sandstone uni.
If you want to have a laugh, turn on NewsRadio right now. Jason Wood is making another hilarious ’speech’.
Afternoon Bludgers – bit early for the full moon ain’t it?
G’day Paul, your shift hey? Can I just call you out on one of your original talking points above?
In 555 you say: ‘So with Congress definately controlled by the Democrats a better insurance for Americans would be a Republican congress to have more checks and balances in relation to Economic solutions.’
Politico just noted:
‘The RNC released a tough new Ayers spot with the outright nasty tagline “Barack Obama: Career first. Country second.” The spot is being emailing to tens of millions, which is a nicer-sounding way of saying, “we’re not spending money to air this.” The campaign also pushed still another brand new and unrelated idea, that with Democrats likely to control Congress, America need a Republican in the White House to balance things out.’
At least give em a footnote! I know they have those in regional universities.
A physicist friend assures me that it is highly likely that Obama (and everyone else in the world) has inhaled a carbon dioxide molecule that was once inhaled by Hitler.
Ergo, we are all Nazi sympathisers now.
They mostly come out at night… mostly
Watch out ………..
He’s lost my vote
…if I could vote
I’m definitely not voting for Hitler now.
PN’s definately insulated now.
Woah! Obama’s win percentage jumps to 94.1% on fivethirtyeight.com
The prediction is that he will get 52% of the vote, which seems a bit high to me.
Missouri has flipped over to Obama again on Intrade.com
McCain is older – who’s air molecules has he inhaled? Khruschevs? Stalins??
It must be depressing and confusing being you.
I say we take off and nuke the whole place from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.
ShowsOn et al
It’s actually a molecule of nitrogen that we rebreathe each breath from everyone else. Carbon dioxide is trapped and recycled too much.
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/archives/001392.html
Dearest bloggers,
The democrat candidate i would endorse is a centrist like Hillary Clinton I hope that ends the confusion.
Barack Obama is the most Liberal candidate since George McGovern in 1972.
What about Mondale and Dukakis?
Game over man, game over!
We are all closer to Hitler than we think. I for example am only six handshakes from Hitler:
Hitler > Chamberlin > Churchill > Curtin > Bert Hawke > Bob Hawke > me
How do you figure the US is a true democracy? Because that is the mantra they keep repeating?
What about paperless, audit trail free voting machines, 1000s of eligible people excluded from voting on flimsy pretexts, different standards of eligibility between states, different voting methods.
Even the winner take all electoral college system is a travesty in the 21st century.
The electoral College was designed to avoid factuous conflicts over who should be President following the difficult contest between Burr and Jeffersen in the early nineteenth century. The electoral college has soughted out close contests like those of 1824,1876,1888 and 2000. The United States reintroduced Democracy to the world that was last practised in Ancient Greece. America bashing is so trendy isn’t it!
Dukakis was more liberal…when Colin Powell says he want say who he’s backing the Republicans are in trouble, i wouldnt mind him being the first black President but not Obama he’s hasn’t earned the job he’s been gifted everything and its all come so easy for this bloke…try telling that to Powell or McCain.
There have also been close elections in popular vote terms that have resulted in wins for the popular vote winner in the electoral college. These include 1960, 1968, 1976 and 2004.
But, yes, the Electoral College is a decent electoral system. It’s not perfect (it gives small states an unrepresentative degree of power), but it’s better than some of the other systems out there…
Mondale and Dukakis are right wing zealots compared to the secret policies and desires of Barack Hussein Obama.
I think we should all be worried about an Obama Presidency…because he’s a p^&*y and he’d be walked all over internationally and let Iran and North Korea, Russia and China do what they want. We need an American President willing to get his hands dirty!
You can do better than that Glen…
Oh Glen,
Just by looking at your photo of the great Liberal orator i’m so glad that it was black jack McEwen that ran that show.
Even Jack Kennedy had more foreign policy experience than Obama would have if he won. Fact is the last thing we need is for foreign leaders to think they can do whatever they want because there is a weak President in the White House and perceptions do matter and look what happened to Kennedy…Cuban Missile Crisis.
Yes, and look at how he handled it!
I hope you realise that the version of democracy practiced in ancient Greece involved slavery.
By “secret policies” do you mean giving everyone in Palestine a t-shirt?
Gore made the same argument against Bush.
Bush had none.
There currently IS a weak President in the White House!
This proves why we need a Democratic administration in the White House.
I am talking about perceptions and the world perception was he’d be a weak President and what i am saying is look Kennedy had more experience than Obama yet he was perceived as weak so how is Russia, Iran and North Korea going to deal with Obama.
Considering this ‘fact’ makes me happier that Whitlam won in ‘72.
Who said Kennedy was perceived as weak!?
He ran a campaign saying that Republicans were weak on Communism and had enabled a missile gap to open up. He ran on a more hawkish foreign policy than Nixon.
Paul, the Electoral College is in the Constitution as written in 1788, it preceded the Jefferson-Burr deadlock in the 1800 election.
It is absurd to say that the EC “sorted out” the close contests of 1824,1876,1888 and 2000. In fact the EC CAUSED those conflicts. Had there been no EC, the candidate with the most votes would have been elected.
Hey Glen, would it be similar to how the powerful in the Democratic Party (ie. the Clintons) or the elder statesman of the GOP backed by the Rovain tactics which enabled a ‘permanent Republican majority’ have?
C’mon, keep a step ahead. If you need help, the NYT has a good article on the genesis of what appear to be most of the anti-Obama talking points on this page.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/us/politics/13martin.html?hp
If Kennedy was not perceived as weak why did the Soviets put Nuclear weapons on Cuba?
There was no missle gap though and he lied about it fair and square!
AiC
Knowledgeable and quick too…
Because Castro asked them to, and in fact told the Soviets to use them!
In politics perception is reality.
World perceptions? Really? Funny that most people surveyed around the world want Obama then…
George W Bush had plenty of foreign affairs experience as Governor of the border state of Texas he negoiated with Mexico on a number of cross border issues.
Democracy in Greece did involve salvery and in its infant years this was also practised in the United States but that doesn’t deny the fact that the US established the most robust democracy in human history.
“We need an American President willing to get his hands dirty!”
With the blood of 600,000 Iraqi civilians and 4181 American soldiers.
Usually the consequences of profound, pathological dumbness are restricted to such things as the Exclusive Brethren’s science curriculum, Hillsong’s prosperity gospel, and papal edicts on unprotected monkey business, but this is beyond biblical; this is Shakespearean.
Yeah, and he flew in the National Guard to get out of going to Vietnam.
And you could only vote if you were a man and owned property.
Where did I deny this? I was pointing out that your assertion that the U.S. is a great democracy because it simply copied Ancient Greek democracy is fatally flawed.
The U.S. only became a proper democracy after desegregation, and the passage of the Civil Rights Act. Before that it failed to live up to the promise of its own constitution. Even President Bush has recognised this.
“Democracy is a form of government in which the supreme power is held completely by the people under a free electoral system”
“Even though there is no universally accepted definition of ‘democracy’, there are two principles that any definition of democracy includes. The first principle is that all members of the society have equal access to power and the second that all members enjoy universally recognized freedoms and liberties.
” An essential process in representative democracies are competitive elections, that are fair both substantively and procedurally.”
Three strikes for the US of A I think PN
I guess that rules out Australia – we have an unelected and unrepresentative Queen who has the unilateral power to repeal any law within 12 months of it passing parliament (Section 59)
http://www.aph.gov.au/SENATE/general/Constitution/par5cha1.htm
I guess that rules out Australia – we have an unelected and unrepresentative Queen who has the unilateral power to repeal any law within 12 months of it passing parliament (Section 59)
ShowaOn
You’ll have Glen go on about our Head of State.
I guess that rules out Australia – we have an unelected and unrepresentative Queen who has the unilateral power to repeal any law within 12 months of it passing parliament (Section 59)
ShowsOn
You’ll have Glen go on about our Head of State.
Matty Drudge is trying to whip up a “Narrowing”. He’s got the latest tracking polls here with no references.
ZOGBY MONDAY: OBAMA 48%, MCCAIN 44% (was 49/43)
RASMUSSEN MONDAY: OBAMA 50%, MCCAIN 45% (was 51/45)
On my most recent trip to the United States in August last year i purchased a John McCain for President badge from a seller outside the White House opposite Lafyette Park. This was well before the Republican primaries of earler this year yet i had a hunch McCain would make it through.
Now lets all fair minded people hope he makes it all the way to the White House.
Paul Nash
Like all fair-minded people, I look forward to McCain going all the way to the White House to have meetings with President Obama.
I note that the close election of 1960 has been mentioned during this blog.
Did the Kennedys of Massachusetts use their power and influence to rig the 1960 election against Republican Richard Nixon.? Some commentators through the years have levelled this accusation does anyone have any information on this close 1960 Presidential election.
Kennedy as Glen has stated faced a Soviet confrontation over missiles in Cuba because they percieved him as a weak Liberal would that have happened had Nixon won the 1960 election.
I wonder what he will say when they bounce back the other way tommorrow?
lol
Why are you trying to turn a topic about the imminent election into one about the Cuban Missile Crisis or supposed “rigging” of an election 40 years ago?
I’m not quite sure how the Soviet’s could have perceived Kennedy as a “weak Liberal” or “soft on Communism” since he invaded Cuba and Vietnam.
What will Happen should Barack Hussein Obama win the white House will Russia, Iran and China view him also as a weak Liberal in the face of global competition.
American hegemony depends on a strong forceful leader to project maximum power and might.
There will be some narrowing now that the negative impact of the Crash and McCain’s less than brilliant response to it, and also the negative impact of the Palin-Couric interviews, has had time to dissipate. There is still widespread unease about Obama, and this will resurface before election day. I don’t think McCain can catch up in the time remaining, but I expect the result will be closer than recent polls have shown.
When you have no argument, you turn to the ridiculous
double lol
There seems to be a lot more widespread unease about McCain/Palin
PN
Sorry for any past assumptions about you from an elitist university-educated liberal like me – I thought you were serious! But your posts 611, 619 and 625 are brilliant – parodying McCain as no more qualified than Bush!!! Brilliant. Isn’t it a bit mean though, to use your own posts to imply that all McCain supporters are grammatically challenged and, well, dumb?
There is world wide unease about Bush and now the US economy. The Chinese must be worried whether tehy will get their loans back?
Dario, yes of course, and that’s why Obama is ahead. But he should be much further ahead given the objective situation. The reason he isn’t is that there is still widespread unease about him. My prediction is that Obama will win, but not by much.
I think the election result is definitely going to be closer than these 8-11% gaps are predicting. The fact that McCain can muster up 45% support when absolutely everything that could be helping Obama is going on makes me think that that 45% are more likely to turn turn up to vote than Obama’s 53% or whatever.
I believe that once some of those 53% go into the polling booth they will think again.
The United States is facing enormous challenges and the last thing it needs is a president on training wheels and the real power will lie in Congress with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid with there rag tag bunch of Liberal extremists.
The only really good aspect of an Obama win is the feel good factor it will give Black Americans.
Ah, so this actually is some kind of sarcastic parody.
PN
You don’t think it will be a good thing if an economy left in smoking ruins by the republicans is given back to the democrats and some competent economists to fix?
You still haven’s said if there was any democrat figure you would endorse, or if you would still endorse Bush?
Must we feed Paul Nash?
The President of The United States under todays constitution can only run for two terms. So whether I still Endorse George W Bush is immaterial i’ve stated earlier that i would endorse a Centrist Democrat like Hillary Rodham Clinton.
As I said last night, Obama is now further ahead of McCain in the popular vote than Clinton was ahead of Bush in 1992 on election day. He’s also now marginally behind Bush’s popular vote winning margin in 1988 over Dukakis.
Both of these elections were viewed as comfortable/near-landslide wins. So why should Obama be held against a higher standard than Clinton? (And remember, the US was already in recession when Clinton won…)
Because no administration since Hoover has been as discredited as this one.
Just as well we didn’t go with another Centrist like Hillary Clinton. Just look at Gore and Kerry, two other centrist Democrats. They actually managed to lose to GEORGE W BUSH. TWICE!! Imagine by how much she would have lost to a decent candidate like McCain.
Interesting article about the role of race in NC politics:
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aLQTM7OfObyA&refer=politics
The preception I get not only from this blog but the media in general is that George Walker Bush has been a dismal President.
Lets put this in perspective its too early to judge the impact of his presidency not only on the United States but the wider world. Thats why in a lot of ways a McCain presidency is essential in continuing the Wars bush started abroad and his economic program at home.
The United States will come out of this troubled period a stronger nation if it continues to pursue an adventurous foreign policy.
Adam
That’s not true. Nixon and Truman both had lower approval ratings, although W has equalled their disapproval ratings. And McCain isn’t Bush anyway. He’s a mavericky maverick who’s never won Miss Congeniality.
And an article disputing the existence of the Bradley effect:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
Jesus on a stick! Pass me the cyanide.
Obama seems to have the “convicted felon” demographic sewn up 2:1. With the highest rate of imprisonment in the developed world, US criminals could be the difference between Obama and McCain. Only ten states strip crims of their right to vote and FL doesn’t seem to be too assiduous about striking them off the roll.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-flbfelons1012sboct12,0,3762352.story
Same here. I doubt Obama will get 350+ electoral votes like current polls suggest. I think he will get closer to 300, which is a more convincing win than the last two elections.
Of course, it is because he is an African-American. There was even a story on BBC last night about Virginian democrats who won’t vote for him because of his race, so on election day they are going to stay home (which in electoral terms, isn’t quite as bad as them voting for McCain).
What part of Dow drops by 2000 points in one week is worth keeping?
The Bradley Effect – Selective Memory
“theory in search of data.”
Even later analysis of the 1982 election revealed the weakness in the Bradley Effect theory as Bradley actually won on election day turnout, but lost the absentee vote so badly that Deukmejian pulled ahead to win. That Bradley won the vote on Election Day would hardly seem to suggest a hidden or last minute anti-black backlash—on the contrary, it suggests how easy it would have been for weekend polls and Election Day exit polls to get it wrong, since the decisive group of voters had largely already voted before the final weekend and never showed up at the polls to answer the questions of exit pollsters.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
This is the first time I’ve agreed with Kristol. He says sack McCain’s campaign staff, pull the negative ads and let McCain and Palin be themselves.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/opinion/13kristol.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
I agree with this except the Palin part. Palin being herself is unelectable.
But I agree with Kristol’s general argument that McCain’s campaign has been completely botched.
Bush’s chickens are coming home to roost
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/poll-puts-obama-out-of-reach/2008/10/13/1223749926679.html
That ABC/WP poll was up 6 points for Obama from two weeks ago
Newspaper endorsements from the weekend- 15 for Obama, 0 for McCain
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/12/obama-scores-15-newspaper_n_134058.html
Paul Nash
Posted Monday, October 13, 2008 at 4:48 pm | Permalink
Pauls’ comment.
Thats why in a lot of ways a McCain presidency is essential in continuing the Wars bush started abroad and his economic program at home.
What Paul is trying to say:
We have to vote McCain, we need to keep blowing up treasure, increasing the national debt is good, we have to find out when other nations will stop lending, and anyway the Dow hasn’t tanked enough.
Sorry Paul, I don’t think it is a winning message.
Internal Democratic polling
Glen
Posted Monday, October 13, 2008 at 3:20 pm | Permalink
If Kennedy was not perceived as weak why did the Soviets put Nuclear weapons on Cuba?
Glen we are very fortunate that Kennedy was in charge, if it had of been an idiot like Bush you probable would not be sending messages to a blog.
Your obviously not old enough to have lived through it, don’t misrepresent the facts until all of us that lived through it are dead. I don’t think you realize how serious it was and how stupid the “war on terror” looks when compared to that period.
Re 655,
Wonder what will happen with Alaska newspaper endorsements given the Troopergate scandal?
…….
Shock and Awe pales into insignificance when comapred with Mutually Assured Destruction.
1st Test probably a draw. Delay for bad light with 24 overs remaining in final days play. India need 155 runs with 6 wickets remaining
Julie – that polling you quote is an ABC/WP poll, full of great numbers. Obama is even leading in the oldies categorie by 15+. You really have to do some trawling to find anywhere McC is up, but he does maintain the edge among self ID’d Republicans and Cons. I think that is all across the board.
Actually the electoral college made a mess of what should have been a straightforward Jefferson victory.
Jefferson and Burr were on the same side. They only tied for electoral votes because the EC didn’t distinguish between the presidential and vice-presidential tallies. The EC was subsequently reformed because of that election.
Is “sort out” a euphemism for taking the process out of the hands of the voters? Because that’s exactly what happened in 1824 and 1876.
1888 and 2000 saw popular vote victories turned into election losses. Not exactly wins for democracy either.
pancho, the only remaining question is not will obama win (i prefer to look at the glass half full as mccain losing is the same thing
) but by how much 
….
another article i read earlier today (posted the link here) said that republicans in florida, especially south florida are deserting mccain in droves because he will continue the status quo with policy vis a vis cuba. these are registered republicans who are just laying anti mccain votes, but we will have them, any way they come. bush was in florida today to campaign for some local congressmen in the miami area and the congressmen themselves didn’t even turn up to be seen on the stump with bush, they were too scared to do it. meanwhile, 2000+ registered republicans packed out an obama rally at a cuban restaurant
…….
The only reason obama is riding high in the polls is the economy. If there was nothing wrong with the global economy this would be a tight election and i would back McCain to win…but the economics have made it clear he’ll probably lose.
But by your own argument that would be because McCain is an inferior candidate!
No that would be because for some reason people in America believe that Obama a man who has never drafted a piece of legislation in his time in the US Senate will solve the crisis and is better able to manage the economy than McCain.
Put simply, if the election is fought on economic problems the Republicans will lose if on foreign policy problems the Republicans win.
PAUL NASH
Th Obama supporter who put that queston to you:
“Can you imagine ANY circumstances under which you would not endorse the republican candidate, or conversely accept there might be some reasons to endorse a democrat? Would you still support Bush if he could be relected?
If your answer is yes, then you should just go and get a job as a rep campaign worker.”
You should hav reversed th queston & asked ar there any circumstances when HE would NOT endorse a Democrat candidate ! His answer would hav had to hav been he would always endorse a Democrat candidate no matter how badly flawed he was , therefore making th question to you hypocritical
Some Obama supporters here sulk cause I & others won’t endorse Obama as he is a phoney And that article about no Bradley factor is also disputed , there is Study evidence of a B and reverse B factor and i expect both will show in th final result
juliem
did you update my number from 326 to 348?
are you still maintaining everyones prediction?who is the lowest/highest?
tanks in advance
LOL! Other Presidents who never drafted legislation in the U.S. Senate
Bush W, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, FDR
But the Republicans CAUSED the foreign policy problems!
Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter and FDR were never members of the Senate, so not surprisingly they never drafted any bills there. They were however all state governors, and quite successful ones, so they were responsible for plenty of legislation. Nixon was a Senator: I haven’t looked up his legislative record, and I doubt you have either, but he must have had some kind of record or Ike wouldn’t have picked him for VP in 1952. Obama has not been a governor, and is a first-term Senator. His legislative record is extremely thin, mainly because he has been running for president ever since he arrived. If it weren’t for the utter discrediting of the Bush administration and now the economic crisis he would not be in the winning position he is now in. He is winning solely because he is the Democrat candidate – any Democrat would be in the same position, and probably in a better position. He would be much further ahead if had any qualifications at all to be president.
Lincoln was a Senator for 2 years before he got elected. Eisenhower never held political office before he won in 1952. However, they both can be considered truly great Presidents.
P.S. I know I’m being fallacious about Eisenhower – his experience in WWII more than qualified him for President.
EXACTLY! FULL MARKS.
Yeah, but Hillary Clinton would’ve been ahead by 37%
Assuming they were white.
A lot of people thought Lincoln was unqualified.
Which is presumably why he polled only 39.8% of the vote. He only won the election because the Democrat vote was split between Douglas, Breckinridge and Bell.
I don’t think it was the Democratic split so much as the geographical concentration of Lincoln’s support.
After a quick perusal of the results on wikipedia, it looks like Lincoln got over 50% in most of the states he won. He wasn’t even on the ballot in a lot of southern states.
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby national tracking poll
Obama 48 (down 1)
McCain 44 (up 1)
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1584
But if you add Douglas and Bell’s E.C. votes to Breckingridge, Lincoln still wins by 57 e.c. votes.
That’s a pretty convincing win to me…
Obama has neither been a Governor or an active legislator in th Senate to test his mettle
In Illinois Senate Obama often on dificult Bills that may affect his later political career later simply abstained (voted ‘present’) & did so 3% of time , 129
One puzzling example goes to just what ‘character’ is Obama given other questions:
In th Illinois Senate Obama (abstained) ie did not vote yes or no on a Bill that would allow certain VICTIMS of sexual crimes to petition judges to SEAL court records relating to their cases.
Illinois House passed Bill 112 to 0 (with no absentions)
Illinois Senate passed Bill 58 to 0 (one abstention’….Obama)
Obama cast the lone ‘present’ vote out of 171 Republicans & Democrats (Obama’s campaign said he believed that the bill violated the First Amendment , just he)
In illinois Senate in 2000 , a Bill on facts not presented to a jury could later be th basis for increasing an offender’s sentence beyond th ordinary maximum
Obama was one of two senators out of 59 Democrats & Republicans who voted present
Seems th bringing America together consensus man was a minority & for unexplainable reasons , except for keeping career policy positions ‘fluid’
ding ding ding
round 2
All that experience as Governor really helped George Dubya hey Ron?
Well if a Governor can be bad how much worse will Obama do if he wins.
Ronster
Pick me, pick me!!
I would not have endorsed the Dem candidate if the candidate was too badly flawed. I would not be a hypocrite. I could not have endorsed Billary.
Man, you walked into that one.
You’re looking at it the wrong way ShowsOn.
Of course Lincoln scored a majority of EC votes, that’s the only way the electoral college can elect a president.
The question is whether that EC majority was built up as a result of the Dem split. After looking at this more closely, the answer is no.
Lincoln won only California (4) and Oregon (3) with < 50% of the vote. New Jersey’s EC votes were split for some reason giving Lincoln another 4. But take away those 11 EC votes, and Lincoln still wins.
(I would also query the assumption that Bell’s followers were Democrats.)
Four comments deleted. Not all of them were reprehensible (though one of them certainly was), but they were heading us in an unpromising direction.
You have no idea Glen!
The rivers will turn red with blood (mostly of Republican Senators – but that’s by the by)!
The French will invade the US.. or frogs… or something.
Lice and flies will run rampant across the nation.
Pestilence will envelope the land.
Then we’ll have the boils, the hail, the locusts, everything will go dark and finally the first borns will die.
Show me a Governor that has done that eh!
Glen
Andy at EV did an interesting correlation between experience and ranking as a POTUS and found none. You could argue that the world is more complicated now and experience is more important but I think a POTUS (or other leader) needs judgement, balance, a good team and leadership/management skills, more than experience.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/experience.html
poss
i know of a pharaoh or two
would that do?
“I could not have endorsed Billary”
but you’ve said you would hav …you walked into that
Possum
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are riding towards the US. The end is nigh!
The Antichrist on the White Horse- Obama
War on the Red Horse- Bill Richardson as SOS
Famine on the Black Horse- Pelosi
Death on the Pale Horse-Biden
It;s a good chart Diogenes. Very interesting.
Anyone care to give me an appraisal of Polk!? He sounds like one of the guys who should get a mention in The Simpsons “Mediocre Presidents song”.
And Reagan usually gets rated higher than 17th now (for not any good reason other than the 2 Bushes make him look like a giant).
ShowsOn 3681 Your argument is nonsensical Only a foolish argument would suggest (because of George Bush experience) that its better to hav a POTUS with NO Governership experience and NO Senate active leglistor experience
Ronster
You’re right. I would have held my nose and voted Hillary.
OMG!! McCain lied to us!! Who would have thought his Ayers smear contained lies. His comment “Ayers and Obama ran a radical education foundation together” scores a coveted Pants on Fire rating.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/790/
Watching 4 Corners some ‘pessimists’ seem to think the Sub Prime crisis is only one quarter of the way along.
Four Corners was worth watching tonight. Apparently the financial crisis can be traced back to the dot com boom and 9/11. Interest rates were slashed and were kept too low for too long. Importantly any form of regulation through greed went out the window, all under the watch of Greenspan and G W Bush. Dubya will go down as the greatest, most worse president of all time.
Enough Rope was good too with Denton interviewing Imran Khan. What a champion of a bloke. He straightened out a lot of the spin on terrorism. He was asked who he would like to win the POTUS? He said “you know who”, Denton said “Sarah Palin”, his reply “hmmm, she’s got a nice smile”.
Centre – did Imran say he would like to “make love to her like a tiger”?!
Grog, have you heard anything about the x rated video with Palin in it? Any ideas how we can get hold of it
You mean “Nailin Paylin” ? I can’t believe I’m linking this.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/nailin-paylin-hustlers-pa_n_131581.html
err no. thank God.
But Obama lied about William Ayers on his own factcheck site didn’t he ALL Obama lists on his site about Ayers is th 1969 riots , NOT th next 6 years of bombings by Ayers Why did he not
So Diogenes, you just came across it in the course of your usual political news surfing
Oh so sorry, I must’ve plagiarised that argument from you.
I was actually pointing out that experience doesn’t count for anything if the person is still a dunce and / or a moron.
I found some of his comments regarding the Taliban scary. This was a political movement that treated women as if they were dogs, and that continues to blow up girl schools. I hoped he could’ve brought that to the audience’s attention, and completely repudiated the Taliban.
David Walsh, Lincoln got nothing in the South. He was a strong abolitionist and perceived in the South to be a Yankee that would ruin the cotton industry. His election was one of the tipping points that led to South Carolina’s seccession.
The Dems had undergone a split in 1960 over slavery that led to the northern Dems splitting from the southern Dems, so Lincoln only needed to beat half the party (and thereby win the EVs from the northern states) to win office. This split helped Lincoln carry PA, IN and IL which gave him the win.
Imran Khan was pretty good.
Anyone see the economist on Lateline tonight? ABC always manages to get the most pessimistic analysts they can find and it always ends up with Kerry or Tony in shock.
“The Dems had undergone a split in 1960 over slavery”
So was Kennedy pro-slavery or against it?
700 Ron – that caravan has moved on. Don’t you knw you guys are now onto Obama and Acorn? C’mon man, keep up!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/us/politics/11acorn.html?em
Grog
You have to check out the script which It’s really classy stuff!
http://www.tmz.com/2008/10/09/get-a-load-of-this-whos-nailin-paylin-script/
I agree with this, the Democrats split, which helped Lincoln win.
But he was also the best candidate.
But he topped 50% in those three states you mentioned.
That makes sense, they are all Northern states.
Grog
Diogenes INITIATED a post on william ayers claiming McCain was lying
All I demonstrated is Obama lied about Ayers His OWN factsheet site ONLY mentions 1969 riots , zero about terorist William Ayers following 6 years of bombing Obama is a liar for deceiptively misleading any readerof his site that 1969 riots was all Ayers did , that is a gross lie by Obama against his own rusted on supporters
does any one wish to challenge that ? (McCains site is similarly full of lies for Republican rusted on
Yeah, McCain also met with Jerry Falwell who said Americans were partly responsible for 9/11.
Enough about freakin’ William Ayers already.
707 Diogenes ok, script?? Oh so it’s one of those arty films
My point exactly! It was the geographic concentration of Republican support that won Lincoln the election; not the Democratic split.
My recollection from reading Shelby Foote’s Civil War history is that Lincoln actually ran as a moderate. He didn’t run on an Abolitionist platform in 1960, rather he ran on a platform to simply hold the union together. So he held a very nuanced position to try to broaden his support from Democrats.
Sounds like a comedy.
I am reminded of the Oz going non stop over Burkegate thinking they had Rudd sunk. Nobody cared about it except them. Now if they can link Obama to the new porn video..
TP 694
Fear not – that was a repea of a Four Corners show from a year ago, when teh comment was made that the sub-prime fallut was 1/4 done. But its a lot further than that now.
One of my favourite economists (Krugman) has just won the Nobel Prize in Economics. Richly deserved IMO; he consistently puts analysis ahead of ideology.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7667190.stm
He is cited for his work on trade patterns but I think he deserves it at least as much for his frequent public questioning of neo-con economics in recent years. Always worth a read.
Gusface
You asked me about CIA files 2 nites ago and I’ve founfd what you asked for but in CIA , but in th Department of Justice with reference to th investigtion was under th FBI
William C. Ibershof , Chief Federal prosecutor of the Weather Underground in the 1970s in October in a letter to the editor published in The New York Times :
“As the lead federal prosecutor of the Weathermen in the 1970s (I was then chief of the criminal division in the Eastern District of Michigan and took over the Weathermen prosecution in 1972 ,
Although I dearly wanted to obtain CONVICTIONS against all the Weathermen, including Bill Ayers, I do take issue with the statement in your news article that the Weathermen indictment was dismissed because of ‘prosecutorial misconduct.’ It was dismissed because of illegal activities, including wiretaps, break-ins and mail interceptions, initiated by John N. Mitchell, attorney general at that time, and W. Mark Felt, an F.B.I. assistant director.”
If Obama wins, I hope he makes him Treasury secretary.
GWU/Battleground national tracking poll
Obama 51 (steady)
McCain 43 (steady)
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?blog=3748&perma=link
“John N. Mitchell”
he of the nixon tapes perchance-if so I doubt anything obtained under his name
as william (and others) has pointed out ayers is a non issue
asides,recollections,etc just hold no water.
simple question
If obama has somehow duped everyone-why?for what purpose?
I have seen this commentator on Lateline. Worth a read. He seems to be calling it for Obama.
http://blogs.smh.com.au/whitehouse08/archives/2008/10/obama_poised_to_win_electoral.html
713
Thanks William. I was trying to find a polite way to say something like that myself.
Not exactly.
BTW
the only ayers we should ever discuss is that fine poetess
pam ayres
eternal words of wisdom for all
“I wish I’d been that much more willin’
When I had more tooth there than fillin’
To pass up gobstoppers,
From respect to me choppers
And to buy something else with me shillin’.”
Sorry william
will restate @724
as myself (and others) has pointed out ayers is a non issue
If it is suggested William Ayers issue which along with economy is dominating US news , is NOT relevant to US electon & should not be discussed here then why not limit all discussion pro Obama
I man after it was relevant for a month of numerous posts on Palin including her family , het husband , her religion and indeed her OWN pregnancy
All this talk of “experience” being such a necessary quality brings to mind a wise old man from my past. He said that for intelligent people, experience was an opportunity to learn, but for unintelligent people it was just an opportunity to demonstrate their endurance.
I wonder what being Gov of Texas did for Bush, whatever foreign policy opportunities it may have offered.
Rasmussen national tracking poll
Obama 50 (down 1)
McCain 45 (steady)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Obama supporters claims of what is a non issue reminds me of th alleged intellegntsia “progressive” principals ar supposed to be free spech , libertarian diversity and non censorship , or does now trashed principal only apply if its pro obama comment
Or ar Obama supporters claiming to decide what should be posted now , which logicaly follows that non Obama supporters can also decide what is a non issue Well everyone then will b happy …and only positive comments will appear about both candidates Th very reverse of what th new internet news service sites was to offer against th MSN or is it elitism in practice I await a coment to obama supports circular argument and “progressive” principals
As to “experience” , Obama supporters for months hav “narratived” or spun a line that ‘expeerience’ does not matter , but only to camoflage Obama’ glaring inexperience It is illogical to argue experience does not matter , try that line in commercial business….Governorhip involves executive responsibility and active Senate legislation involvement is also a benefit….neither of which Obama is qualified in …and this is clearly McCain’s advantage & with FA Obama could be a risk especialy over Pakistan
……as against far better US standing in Europe & non develops but I suspoect ultimately not in M/E where th action reely is apart from Pakistan Whereas with Kyoto both ar duds
Of course if one goes beyond “experience’ and look at character , decency standards , judgement , governance , convictons history or religious beliefs then as a guide we end back at th candidate ‘associations’ history don’t we…those “non issues”
.
(PS/ Obama’s political advantages ar in Democrat idealology and in some domestic policys with many of his progressive ones ditched now , and whilst economics is a clear political likely electon decifding winner for him there is a lot of spin in that but voters hav bought it , seeing neither nor there Partys actually has a proud reglatory & prudential record at all , given there US psche , and NEITHER saw th collapse and we do not know what reely will replace current tainted market system except words & ‘faith’)
Looks like we have a new swing state: Minnesota State University poll of 606 voters has Obama leading 45-43 in North Dakota. And has anyone else heard chatter about Montana?
Mason-Dixon: Obama 47, McCain 45 in Nevada.
yes , th economic ruins of Wall Street & its reel and & to voters potentail flow on has cut right through otherwise traditional Republican allegiances & solid ‘red’ States
Marist Poll:
49-45 to Obama among likely voters in Ohio.
53-41 to Obama among likely voters in Pennsylvania.
669, Gus et. al,
Yes, still maintaining the list, NO worries
….. However, it is on another computer and NOT the one I am on at the moment ….. since you’ve asked, I will kindly post an update later on today, just watch this thread …..
Cheers
Missouri is back in the fold on the RCP no swing states map
……
The tipping point for Obama sceptics
My favourite political commentator Christopher Hitchens writes:
“It therefore seems to me that the Republican Party has invited not just defeat but discredit this year, and that both its nominees for the highest offices in the land should be decisively repudiated, along with any senators, congressmen, and governors who endorse them… Obama is greatly overrated in my opinion, but the Obama-Biden ticket is not a capitulationist one, even if it does accept the support of the surrender faction, and it does show some signs of being able and willing to profit from experience. With McCain, the “experience” is subject to sharply diminishing returns, as is the rest of him, and with Palin the very word itself is a sick joke. One only wishes that the election could be over now and a proper and dignified verdict rendered, so as to spare democracy and civility the degradation to which they look like being subjected in the remaining days of a low, dishonest campaign.”
I think this is a bit harsh on McCain personally, but broadly I have to concur, with considerable regret. McCain has proved to be a much worse candidate than I expected, and I think the Crash has tipped the policy balance firmly in favour of the Dems. The US and the world badly need to be rid of the Republican Party, and this must outweigh reservations about the qualifications of the candidate. My low opinion of Obama hasn’t changed, but at least he belongs to the right party. Given a choice between two inferior candidates, I have to support the one whose party will, with any luck, carry him in the right direction.
Yes Hitchens was too harsh on McCain; he is wearing some of teh flak for the mishandled bailout, which should be sheeted home to Bush and paulson. Still, if the financial crisis was a challenge which some (Brown, Sarkozy, even Rudd) have risen to, McCain certainly has not. He has been found wanting.
WB,
MT has been a “somewhat” swing state for a while – about the same as GA. No recent polls there, however.
That said, the ND poll results are rather shocking – Obama pulled out of ND after the GOP convention and hasn’t (to the best of my knowledge) been campaigning there for at least a month.
Some new polls out from SUSA:
GA: McCain +8 (previously McCain +11)
NJ: Obama +15 (previously Obama +10)
NY: Obama +33 (previously Obama +19)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/surveyusa_ga_nj_ny_101112.php
New USA Today/Gallup poll:
Obama +7
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_52_mccain_45_usa_toda.php
Rasmussen polls:
FL: Obama +5
MO: Obama +3
NC: Tie
OH: Obama +2
VA: Obama +3
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_october_12_2008
Is it possible that some people are telling pollsters that they are not going to vote for Obama, even though they intend doing so. Is there a reverse Bradley effect for Obama?
For the nervous nellies, a sensible analysis of how John McCain could win.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/13/obama/index.html
Adam, I think McCain is actually a decent person. Unfortunately in order to be elected he’s listened to Republican insiders who were responsible for Bush and their party’s current standing and his campaign has morphed into something I don’t think he wanted it to be. I thought I could almost see the old McCain when he was confronting supporters suggesting that Obama was an Arab or that they were afraid of Obama at a rally.
If you read Hitchens’ last three election related articles in Slate it was increasingly clear that he was going to endorse Obama. The reason is simple, he constantly demonstrated how the McCain campaign, as well as segments of the media (read: FoxNews), constantly misrepresent Obama’s foreign policy by making it seem more dove-ish than it actually is.
Florida is now “Leaning Obama” on the RCP Electoral Map.
North Dakota has changed from “Solid McCain” to “Leaning McCain” as well.
LOL! North Dakota
I’m looking at the Pollster.com map. Let’s say Obama loses Florida and Ohio, which currently are leaning his way on that map, and let’s say McCain wins all the yellow toss-up states (which just based on probability is extremely unlikely). Obama still wins with 273 votes!
THAT’S how far in front Obama is.
If ND did vote for Obama (which is still highly unlikely notwithstanding today’s poll), it would be the first time that the Dakotas would split their vote in a Presidential election since 1916.
Another possible “history-making” (if unexciting) moment for this election…
ShowsOn @ 751,
The toss-up state is now Virginia – a state where Obama currently leads by 6.5% on the RCP averages!!!
Rasmussen: Obama 51, McCain 46 in Florida; Obama 50, McCain 47 in Missouri; 48-all in North Carolina; Obama 49, McCain 47 in Ohio; Obama 50, McCain 47 in Virginia.
Catching up with Gus, here is my summary to date:
players – Dario, Diogenes, PhilOfSydney, ShowsOn, GaryBruce, Al, Gusface, Enjaybee, Sondeo, Grog and myself.
Everyone has said Obama.
Guesses –
Dario / 286
Diogenes / 293
PhilOfSydney / 306
ShowsOn / 309
GaryBruce / 310
Al / 311
Enjaybee / 338
Gusface / 348
Sondeo / 348
Grog / 348
Julie / 375
Gus, your tiebreakers are No for Obama taking Missouri and Colorado to put him over the top. Sondeo, yours are Yes for Obama to take Missouri and you didn’t give me the state you think will put him over the top. Grog, yours are the same as Gus’s are. If one or the other of you want to change anything there, let me know.
If anyone already in our little contest wants to change any thing on that list, you have until 10pm on Tuesday Nov. 4th to get me the changes. I’ll take the time stamp on any PB post to get that done. I will check the blog before I go to bed on Tuesday.
Anyone else wants in on our contest, you are more than welcome. We will take McCain supporters too, anyone is welcome. We need your guess as to which candidate will win the election. We also need your guess for the EV total. For tiebreakers, give answers to the following two questions – Will Obama take Missouri in the victory? and Which state will put Obama over the top [using the CNN election returns as that is the program I will watch on Wednesday]?
We don’t have any official prizes, this is all for pride only. You can say you were the one who had it right
.
Notes to earlier posts on this and other US threads where I’ve detailed this same information. IF there is any doubt at ALL about any specific state and their EV votes, i.e like Florida in 2000 where a state comes in LATER than the immediate 24 hours or so after the polls close, I’ll wait until all EV counts are settled before I post our winner [so it might not be posted right away
].
Further to 756, I will use the closest but smaller guess as the right one IF no one gets it right on. In otherwords, using the numbers we’ve all provided so far if the winning total is 336, I would declare Al the winner as Enjaybee’s 338 overstepped the final total.
William
There have been a few rumours that Democrat internal polling has Obama ahead in Montana by a couple of points. I haven’t been able to confirm them so I didn’t mention it. You know me, I will only ever post completely reliable verifiable facts.
dio,
what are the sources of your rumours?? if a net website, please post its URL, i can use a new news source to browse, if someone has that kind of information, thats a site I want to be visiting on a regular basis
……..
From an Obama blog on MySpace, I’m on their mailing list. MySpace though isn’t viewable by anyone other than MySpace members so it doesn’t do any good to post the full link. This is a cut and paste for one of his economic policy plans to help get the economy back in sync. For the next 2 years, every company that hires a new employee that they didn’t previously have will get a tax credit for every such new employee.
Here is another one that will help people as well ….
757
Julie, sounds like you’ve watched a bit of “The Price is Right” in your time.
juliem, I thought I had said he wouldn’t win Missouri and that Colorado would put him over the top. I’ll go back through the threads to make sure.
juliem
It was in a few comments on blogs. There was no link.
763, no worries, I’ve changed it to what you just mentioned ……
It appears that Steve Schmidt, who has run possibly the worst campaign in history, wants to lose. He says that being 6% behind in the polls shows that he’s got Obama right where he wants him. Drudge is cherry-picking the closer national polls and ignoring all the bad ones. The talk is that McCain wants to change direction but can’t be seen to be shifting because the polls are diabolical. The Repugs are trying to pretend that the momentum is shifting to McCain but they have to ignore reality to do so. They’re very frustrated.
Obama up in ND??? Sink the Bismarck!
More bad news for McCain. Their best polls have been Zogby, who incidentally said the race was very even a fwe days ago. Yesterdays Zogby was trumpeted as narrowing to 4%. Todays is out to 6% again. And my humble apologies to Drudge who has leaked this bad poll for McCain. Perhaps he’s given up.
ZOGBY TUESDAY: OBAMA 49%, MCCAIN 43%.
There has been endless commentary from Hillary supporters here that Obama is only winning because of the stock market crash. On one level, this can easily be countered by looking at McCain’s Hail Mary choice for VP as he knew he needed a miracle before the Crash. And Obama was ahead of McCain before the Crash. Still, some people are impervious to reality.
Some of the neocons in the US don’t agree either. They say that Obama’s commanding lead and almost certain victory are the CAUSE of the US Crash, not the EFFECT.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmViOTNkM2VkMTAwOTJjMGE3NjA1ZmY3NTcwMmQwODg=
lol anyone who has that opinion should be laughed out of town
For those that want a good laugh, this is a good site…………
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/bldailyfeed3.htm
On Pres Bush……
“His big line was today: ‘We are a prosperous nation with immense resources and a wide range of tools to deal with this problem. And he’s right: he’s a tool, Bernanke’s a tool, Paulsen’s a tool, Alan Greenspan, a huge tool.” –Bill Maher
A couple more…….
“Naturally the smart thing to do to solve your economic woes is to demonize the Democrats. And of course, Sarah Palin is more than happy to oblige. She’s been saying that Obama hangs out with terrorists. And you know, I think the evangelical lady who’s in a video getting blessed by a witch doctor, who’s married to a secessionist, and can’t name a newspaper — she’s right, Obama is scary.” –Bill Maher
“The question she keeps asking at all of the rallies is, ‘Who is Barack Obama?’ You know what, genius, maybe if you’d picked up a newspaper in the last year you’d know. He’s the guy who’s kicking your ass.” –Bill Maher
Geez, these guys would have a field day with our lot.
Love Bill Maher
Merkley (D) +5 in Oregon Senate race from latest SUSA poll.
That is a must-win seat for the Dems if they want to have 60 seats in the new Senate…
It’s easy to see 59 seats for the Dems. The 60th is much harder – they will have to win MS, KY or GA. The Repubs are ahead in all three at the moment.
Diog, are you denying the fact that before the crash that Obama and McCain was even or at most Obama was +2 at RCP. And now, Obama is +7 on RCP. Please explain. So who is:
Hillary would have been +20 by now.
Nonsense. The RCP historical graph clearly shows that Obama has been ahead of McCain most of the time (and often by a decent lead), and the only real lead McCain had was after his convention.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
And Rudd would have been up by 50
I doubt KY will be the 60th seat for the Dems – it’s probably the least likely of MS, KY and GA to fall at this stage.
Currently, it seems that GA (Chambliss) is the most likely of the 3 to fall – if the Dems can keep him under 50% in the polls before election day, they should be able to pick the seat up due to (expected) Obama coattails and the fact that undecideds tend to break 2:1 against the incumbent late in the race…
776
Whether you win by +20 or +6 it makes no difference. You’re still the President.
My guess is that after a year or two the American people will know they have made a very good choice. .
Just to further follow up on your nonsensical post, on RCP Obama was +7.5 at the end of June, +5 at the end of July, +4.8 in mid-August, and +6.4 in early September, all before the US banks collapsed. His lowest lead was +1.2 for all of a week in late August.
Not sure if this poll had been posted…
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg College / Morning Call
10/9-13/08; 580 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 51, McCain 38
(Obama up 9 from 25/9)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Release_10_13_08.pdf
Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac bailout was announced on the Sunday, 6/9/07. That was the starting point of the collapse.
These are the numbers from RCP in the early Sept:
Newsweek 09/10 – 09/11 1038 RV 46 46 Tie
Battleground* 09/07 – 09/11 1000 LV 44 48 McCain +4
Associated Press/GfK 09/05 – 09/10 812 LV 44 48 McCain +4
FOX News 09/08 – 09/09 900 RV 42 45 McCain +3
Gallup Tracking 09/07 – 09/09 2714 RV 43 48 McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking 09/07 – 09/09 3000 LV 48 47 Obama +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/07 – 09/09 902 RV 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/06 – 09/08 860 RV 46 45 Obama +1
ABC News/Wash Post 09/05 – 09/07 LV 47 49 McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 09/05 – 09/07 823 LV 44 54 McCain +10
CBS News 09/05 – 09/07 655 RV 44 46 McCain +2
CNN/OpinionResearch 09/05 – 09/07 942 RV 48 48 Tie
IBD/TIPP 09/02 – 09/07 868 RV 45 40 Obama +5
CBS News 09/01 – 09/03 734 RV 42 42 Tie
Enough rope.
Sunday, 6/9/07 – Sunday, 6/9/08
Um, you’re looking at polls immediately after the Republican Convention (Sept 1-4). Of course they favoured McCain, it’s called a ‘Convention bounce’. Got anything else other than nonsense?
John McCain has been falsely “narrated” by th new Age information technology so widely that it has been accepted a “fact” , even by otherwise wise peoples
John McCain on his proven record is an very legislator and further skilled Leader given his “negotioations” history with Democrats over a decade
IF one separates above matters , those qualities , his basic decency standards as a person so disgracefully trashed here and and his conciderable experience make easily able to be a very sound POTUS for th world , “Spin” & th Net has convinced knowledge pundits wrongly otherwise
What has occurred is
1/ McCain is not a good Election campaigner (is that so critical) ,
2/ has faced a very biased unrelenting Liberal progressive manstream & internet Media desperate for there “man’ to be elected ,
3/ a masswive underlying undercurrent of “its time’ factor
4/ a justified animosity to Bush factor 5/ a general anti Republican feeling
….YET he was still competitive up to be 3 weeks ago ….since then Palin’s inexperience has shown ……BUT th game changer totally reely has been th economic meltdown its attribution to Republican ‘brand’
…AND ZERO fromm Obama in a “postive” sence contributing to that last approx 3 weeks vote surge
So I for one go back to my first 3 paragrapghs and suggest none of that has changed reely…what has changed is “re-narrativing “ that to fit current voting trends/likely very solid obama win (that’s making th kettle fit current political reality rather than accepting a subsequent ‘event’ (Wall Street) plus some Palin changed votes…McCain’s assets ar still th same & rewritinfg history won’t change that in objective historys
New Missouri polls
****
Putting aside Hillary – Obama debates, McCain is clearly toast. It looks like the concerted action of western govenments is now ending the financial crisis, although that means it haw stopped getting worse – a lot of damage has still been done. But the real clanger for the republicans is that the solution has come from Europe and is now being adopted by Paulson and Bush. Even after they got agreement to their $700billion bailout, it didn’t actually work till smarter governments like Brown in England started guaranteeign bank borrowings, to restore confidence. Also, his plan saw the government buying equity, which means taxpayers will get their money back in the future, whereas the Bush treasury has spent a fortune, some of which is just gone.
But that’s SOCIALISM!!!
Hahaha this is a funny article…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-biggest-loser/2008/10/13/1223749932356.html
God Bless Donald Rumsfeld. He was absolutely right about the Unknown Unknown.
The UU will always beat us, will always ahead of us. We like to think we are very clever, the master of the Universe. But UU will always be like the speed of light. Something that we can never catchup.
790 Dario,
Would you ever expect to see a “Joe Six Pack” type of guy (to borrow Sarah Palin’s words) with an order of sushi and a mineral water?
…..
No, probably with a six pack and a couple of hotdogs
…..
While I hadn’t heard those sorts of stats before, it is hardly surprising when you look underneath the surface
No, very true
Its a correlation on poverty. Poor people have the worst diets, and the majority of the (white) poor vote republican, under the deluded belief that a bunch of pals of big-business actually care about them. The middle class are in better shapre, and more often vote democrat. The really rich are too few in number to influence the stats.
RCP have updated their map today. Dems now have solid or leaning 304 EV’s. Only 7 states are tossup now (NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, WV & NC) worth a collective 76. Florida is now leaning Obama while Ohio is still tossup. If Obama wins all of the tossups and keeps his solid and leaning, that is 380.
Looking good
McCain and Palin have Saturday Night Live against them now. As surely as The Chaser sounded Howard’s death knell, everyone knows they are gone, and they know it too. Hence the constant shifts in tactics from good cop – dumb cop back to good cop – bad cop.
Figures on spending for advertising and visits to battleground states ….
Moral of the story – money wins you elections.
If the GOP are spending $1.6M per week in PA, where they are losing by double digits, their ads must really REALLY suck
That said, it will be interesting to see where the $1.25M that was spent in MI will go now that McCain has pulled out of the state. Presumably it will go to states like FL, VA and NC in order to bridge the currently massive gap in ad spending in those states.
It can’t hurt
Woooo Hoooo
Further to 801, about 3/4 of the way through the article they suggest Australia as a destination for disgruntled US conservatives to move to after the election is over when Obama wins. Don’t know what they were on when they suggested Australia as a place where conservatives would be happy, Australia is MORE liberal than the US imho
…….
OT if you haven’t been following regular news today (or the generic PB thread), Rudd will be on TV @ 6:30 with a speech to present his emergency stimulus package to the nation.
And it looks like Lieberman is going to become a Republican after the election anyway.
Incorrect, the correct number is +37.
Finnster
Wash your mouth out with soap! Rumsfeldt did not coin the phrase “unknown unknown”. It was Nassim Nicholas Taleb who also predicted the stock market crash in his brilliant book “Black Swans-The Impact of the Highly Improbable”.
Diog, as Mao once famously said to Nixon: “I love the rightist especially when they are acting like a socialist”.
Finns
We are all socialists now.
U.S. Forces Nine Major Banks To Accept Partial Nationalization
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/13/AR2008101300184.html?nav=rss_business
Diog, yes, the dialectic dreams of an accused self proclaimed Marxist Revolutionary, the landscape is looking very good among the carrions that strewed across Wall St :razz”
I don’t know why we should take Mao’s opinion of much seriously. Watergate was a bit of a giggle when compared to the Cultural Revolution.
Re 807,
Dio, I don’t mind being “socialist” when the government is giving me money
…. our family gets cash courtesy of the government today and you can bet your last dollar that if I was still living in the US, that I wouldn’t be taken care of as nicely by the current mob in power over there 
…….
Tuesday’s Reuters/CSpan/Zogby national tracking poll has Obama up two points to a 6 point lead:
Obama 49 (up 1)
McCain 43 (down 1)
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49D0WE20081014
The conservatives are piling on to McCain. The corpse is really rotting. Remember the guys in this clip are Conservatives, not Democrats.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=Wbjg9Hh17lI
Yes Amigo FINNS
you were right about RCP that polls were up for McCain before th crash & McCain was in front thats a fact and th nonsense by our blind sided Obama supporters trying to ’spin’ otherwise is typical polling garbage In week preceding crash when ‘crashs’ were published trend started against McCain and immediately after crash th J curve for obama
When you hit or there is a fear of hitting that hip pocket severely , politcal allegiences go ourt window Many bad ’storys’ hav & will result from meltdown including innocent ‘oz’ and innocent ‘oz’ peoples…Obama is a direct beneficiary & hindsite will qanswer if another Carter , or worse…but one definite plus is on US psche…that blind US of A faith in there liberty almost unfettered free market system is now in same bin as th Soviet model with US confidence weakened in it
but only weakened , thru grited teeth hav they tasted joys of some socialism , but will there follow core Labor ‘left” principals of reel regulastion & prudentsal oversite and adeqate rules & disclosures follow & some big Govt & some ACCC etc and markets ar not there for just plunder by wealiest or or ‘informned’ but for social all peoples outcomes
Actualy US Federal Reserve supervises th US Banking System only but does NOT supervise ALL Deposit Taking Institutions where most of US defawlting home loans came from so that was first problem , as there’s no US APRA or above govt ‘filters’ supervising Now posters can blog to themselves that this is a Republican cause but fail to undrstand few of above ‘oz’ controls exist as such controls like APRA etc & sensible regulation sr supposedly ’socialist’ so both Republican & Democrat Partys reely did created this unsupervised tiger ,
All thats now needed is US pollies not to weaken , swallow yankee pride & accept some reel ‘left’ (aleged socialism) over markets etc aussie style
Rudd guarantees all deposits in all institution for 3 years , sensbile….US should also but hav no APRA etc so don’t know how deep th bad apples go
Translation: McCain got a boost from his campaign launch, but before that, Obama was in front.
If Obama wins YES, if McCain wins NO.
Therefore, if there has not been the meltdown, McCain probably would have stayed in front and Obama is ffffked with the Obama supporters here committing mass hara-kiri. Not a pretty sight.
812. Holy cats Diogenes. What a round up.
The Finnigans
you do truly believe mccain/palin would beat obama/biden?
most of the polls etc show a clear lead to obama pre the meltdown.
on what,besides seemingly blind faith, do you base your view.
Gus @ 817 and Finnigans,
Finns, put your word where your heart is and give us a prediction for McCain on EV’s in our little contest here. Come on, if you really believe you must have some numbers in mind …… 10 of us are waiting for you to step up on this one …..
US Govt going the Bank nationalisation route as well:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/13/AR2008101300184.html?nav=rss_business
SNIP: Evading moderation filters by misspelling swear words is no longer permitted – The Management.
Sure, and Hillary would have been leading by 748%, we get it
But if the public did not trust his economic policy ability he’d be toast, and we’d be saying how McCain was lucky. You make your own luck.
Again I call bullshit. Obama got a bounce from his convention… Obama in front by 7. Then McCain gets a bounce from his convention… McCain in front by 1. What comes next without a meltdown? Back to Obama. With a meltdown it came back even bigger.
Amigo Ronnie, i love this. it’s almost like old times, being torn apart by the wolf pack.
Further to my post the other day where I wondered if Palin was rowing her own 2012 boat and not the leaky McCain 2008 hulk, it is fairly obvious that many of the people (barnacles) who have clung to the neocon raft for the last 8 years have detached themselves now that it is amongst the fatal shoals and swum for shore, loudly proclaiming that the imminent disaster is none of their doing, and claiming that the hapless pilot McCain is to blame for not steering even further to the right. The fact that everybody but them can see even more dangerous reefs on the right is of no matter to them. Its every neocon for themselves!
Aw come on Finns, at least make a game of it
That would assume McCain had a campaign launch ever week.
Is there any point in this discussion about “If so and so hadn’t happened, McCain/Hillary/Bob Dole would have won!”.
The entire planet doesn’t go on pause during election campaigns. Stuff happens, candidates respond and the people decide.
I see your point, however, in the 8th dimension Hillary would’ve won.
fins, why “should” Obama be ahead by 15%?
Reagan beat Mondale 58-40.
Bush sr beat Dukakis 53-45
Clinton beat Bush 43-37 (ignore Perot)
Clinton beat Dole 49-40
So Reagan over Mondale is the only one who got 15+
You really think Obama should be as strong as Ronnie was in 84? Do you really think that McCain is as bad as Mondale?
“obama/biden should be +15 but they are not.”
why so?
“because obama is black, then who knows?”
I thought that way back when,but now have realised that the US is ready to accept a black person-race is less an issue than the 1960’s-which i think is the core of the mccain followers “not getting it’
ps I like obi ,could handle hillbill but basically want the pugs out and their heinious philosophies cast into the bin of history
Dont you The Finnigans?
Amigo FINNS
You correctly quoted stat facts but our experience says Obama supporters when faced with them ….well some remain silence just won’t acknowledge , and some “narrate” , just like there Messaiah facts & polls ar totally dispensible Some posts since yours nonsensically quote stats in wonderland not understanding them
Precous & sensitive for there man
But US is full of elitists progressives or intelegentsia Obama supporters where core ‘left’ policys were never important anyway to them anyway & its obvious from responses , only there “progressive” ones were important but Obama has ditched a lot of them as well Whats left is a ‘Democrat candidate , derobed with words as a front man , and perhaps Democrat Party itself as a byproduct improve status quo
Finns,
I’m with you.
I knew this I’d seen this election before. And I’m right. Here’s a trailer from the the prequel when Robert Redford played Obama.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K78U6XsHsg
ok then Ron, how far ahead “should” Obama be?
explain to me why Obama “should” be ahead by margins not seen since 1984.
What about the fact McCain associated himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?
WTF? Obama’s policies are core left, assuming you know anything about political ideology.
Go do some reading Ronster. Obama’s policies are more left wing than Clinton’s, Kerry’s and Gore’s.
The Republicans bailing out the banks. 60% of the UK banking system nationalised. Umm, capitalism seems to have taken such a new socialistic direction, that monnikers like left and right mean nothing.
On come on, Ron is talking absolute crap but Obama’s policies are most certainly not “core left”. But it’s a stupid term anyway as it’s completely relative and subjective.
GG; We’re all Chifley supporters now.
Amigo GG & Ronnie, it is old times
Grog,
I reckon Chiff would be sittting up in heaven pissing himself laughing
GG, Would love to be able to be at the Kurrajong Hotel in heaven sharing a beer with the great man.
“What about the fact McCain associated himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?”
You hav cut & pasted these exact words for week s But Socrates must like your repetition seeing no objection from him
Why do you not hav intelectual so say who…because if its McCain vs Obama’s Pastor Wright then I’ve got tons of respective lying & crazy Obama & Wright quotes make McCain look like an Angel time to get off th fence
THEN
Dario “Again I call bullshit”
Before you ar qualified to make that call you need to learn FINNS excellnt polling skills , and todate your polling figures ar rubbery & foolish on pre & post crash polling
Grog
you need to carefully read what FINNS #820 said and then see your questomn does not match my comments at all
Amigo GG & Ronnie, maybe we should get together to celebrate the creation of USSR (United States Socialist Republic) with Chairman Obama as the President of the Politburo (i am in generous mood, i give him one term). the drinks are on me.
Oz
#837
You obviously do not know qwhat core ‘left’ policys ar so you ar talking absolute crap because many Obama’s policies are most certainly not (obama is simply to th left of th consservative McCain)
Finns
I agree that it would have been a lot closer without the meltdown but I’m still pretty sure we would have won. The meltdown helped in so many ways that it was a Perfect Storm.
It made everyone concentrate on substance instead of character.
It made the economy the main issue.
It made Palin look more dangerous.
It made McCain look erratic and Obama presidential.
It tied McCain to the Repugs.
It made McCain look like an idiot when his own party voted against the bill he stopped his campaign to help pass.
It was a beautiful thing. We may never again see a gift from the electoral gods like it again. It almost made a believer out of me.
That’s fine, I still would love someone to give me a reason why Obama “should” be beating McCain almost as well as Reagan beat Mondale.
Diogenes,
If you don’t believe in something, you’ll believe in anything.
Grog, it must be too much of it to cause such density.
Obama is not beating or going to beat McCain. It was GW Bush that is beating and going to beat Mccain. As I said, the Obama supporters should not too cocky about it.
845
When you put it like that, Obama should be ahead by 15%!
mea culpa. I was in the Billary camp; still not all that excited by Obama; once McCain ‘chose’ Palin and then the meltdown it became a drover’s dog election for the Dems – and always bet on a mangy drover’s dog over a pitbull with lipstick
GG
I believe in Enlightenment values.
Finns
McCain’s campaign has been a shambles. He has been erratic and “unpresidential”. But it was his response to the economic meltdown that lost this election more than anything, except perhaps GWB.
Grog, you are forgiven.
Diogenes,
I’m sure you do. But, since you drive a lamp, enlightenment would be a pre requisite of existence would it not?
Amigo FINNS
“the drinks are on me.”
I’m in that However after you run out of money then they ar on me ….may as well hav a good sesson of celebration
Ok, so why should the GWB handicap be as great as 15%?
/Edward Scissorhands style on
Hi
Greensborough
Growler!
Oh OK, but what about McCain associating himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?
Hey Ron, what does “core ‘left’ policys” actually mean?
I don’t think it actually matters how (and if) Obama gets 270 votes in the E.C. A win is a win is a win.
Same here! That makes two of us.
Forgive me not Finns!
But as proof I give you (ahem) my blog posting on the issue:
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2008/07/obama-and-u2.html
showson
you spin me out sometimes dude
#857
“you ShowsOn SPIN me out sometimes dude ”
Second word sums up prefectly , will keep that quote thanks for plagarism
Grog
if you ar satisfied with Diogenes #845 narrative dreams then you ar easly satisfied , however psephologicaly Obama should be miles ahead which was FINNS point & there ar reasons why Obama should hav been yet 3 weeks ago it was close
Lateline is talking about the real culprit of the meltdown, the CDS Credit Default Swaps.
ron
ecuse ignorance
what plagarism exactly?
Sorry! No harm intended.
LOL! The second word is “ShowsOn”?
Obama is 42% ahead in the 9th dimension Ron, you should know that by now.
showson,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkLXdLgOybE&feature=related
shows
no harm at all,i just love your posts and sometimes I dont get them at first reading
“What about the fact McCain associated himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?”
3842 ShowsOn You hav cut & pasted these exact words for WEEKS (probably 14 times) But Socrates must like your repetition seeing no objection from him
Why do you not hav intelectual integriys to say who ?
Now you repeated th same words exact cut & past again .. and again without saying who (ar you afraid what comparative Wright to Obama and vice vers quotes I hav)
Quinnipiac:
Colorado: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
Michigan: Obama 54%, McCain 38%
Minnesota: Obama 51%, McCain 40%
Wisconsin: Obama 54%, McCain 37%
Amigo Ronnie, deja vu, is the Man from the Showy River back?
859 – it was joke joyce.
Why ‘psephologicaly’ Obama should be miles ahead?
Isn’t 10% miles ahead? It’s a freakin landslide, and also to me seems “‘psephologicaly” about right.
I see no reason why Obama should beat McCain better than Clinton beat Dole.
McCain is better than Dole IMO; the power of incumbancy of Clinton is = to the negative of the Bush factor…
finns
where is your nemesis kr these days btw
[showson,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkLXdLgOybE&feature=related
greensborough growler,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B35rYEkYgvs&feature=related
860 – CDS you got that right.
Good article in Time (from March this year)
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1723152,00.html
Amigo FINNS
a test in lateral logic and commonsense
#857 Gusface “you ShowsOn SPIN me out sometimes dude ”
#856 Ron Second word sums up prefectly , will keep that quote thanks for plagarism
#ShowOn #862 LOL! The second word is “ShowsOn”?
I just knew a literalist would take my words ‘Second word’ and actualy repeat th quote of oneself , where is some competition amigo
Ron
did i palgarise you as your 856 indicates.
Please clarify
Yes, because the words “second” and “word” actually have specific meanings.
Ron, what does “core ‘left’ policys” actually mean?
ShowsOn, you’ve used this argument four times on this thread alone. Just as I’ve asked Ron to give William Ayers a rest, so I’m asking you with this.
#868
Whilst result may not change , FINNS & later I were simply explaing voters reactions to policys , candidates & events without narratives being written based on a messahiac belief it was all of a sudden th Obama message had been received There were psephological reaons why up to a mere 3 weeks weeks ago it was close (when it should NOT hav been and certainly (leave Hillary out) would not hav been say with AL Gore …and why since then there has been an Obama surge (and despite some nonsensical polling info given here , th polls support what we hav said)
Who proposed this “messahiac” belief?
This is really weird. I got this email with “This communication is not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee” but why it was signed by “Barack”.
Finns
I got one from mccain yesterday
except it was a telegram