I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.4 | 39.1 | 1031 | 17 | |
| Iowa | 54.8 | 39.8 | 692 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.3 | 38.6 | 3142 | 21 | |
| Washington | 53.9 | 42.0 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.4 | 41.6 | 2760 | 4 | |
| West Virginia | 50.9 | 40.4 | 600 | 5 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.1 | 41.7 | 2641 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 51.2 | 41.3 | 3673 | 10 | |
| Virginia | 51.6 | 42.5 | 3183 | 13 | |
| Colorado | 50.6 | 42.8 | 3441 | 9 | |
| Florida | 51.1 | 43.7 | 3125 | 27 | |
| New Mexico | 47.7 | 40.6 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.9 | 45.0 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 50.8 | 44.6 | 1768 | 5 | |
| North Carolina | 49.3 | 44.7 | 3736 | 15 | |
| Ohio | 48.5 | 45.1 | 3418 | 20 | |
| Missouri | 48.9 | 46.6 | 1600 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.6 | 47.4 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 158 |
| RCP/Total | 49.9 | 42.3 | - | 369 | 169 |
905 Comments
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So Diogenes, you just came across it in the course of your usual political news surfing
Oh so sorry, I must’ve plagiarised that argument from you.
I was actually pointing out that experience doesn’t count for anything if the person is still a dunce and / or a moron.
I found some of his comments regarding the Taliban scary. This was a political movement that treated women as if they were dogs, and that continues to blow up girl schools. I hoped he could’ve brought that to the audience’s attention, and completely repudiated the Taliban.
David Walsh, Lincoln got nothing in the South. He was a strong abolitionist and perceived in the South to be a Yankee that would ruin the cotton industry. His election was one of the tipping points that led to South Carolina’s seccession.
The Dems had undergone a split in 1960 over slavery that led to the northern Dems splitting from the southern Dems, so Lincoln only needed to beat half the party (and thereby win the EVs from the northern states) to win office. This split helped Lincoln carry PA, IN and IL which gave him the win.
Imran Khan was pretty good.
Anyone see the economist on Lateline tonight? ABC always manages to get the most pessimistic analysts they can find and it always ends up with Kerry or Tony in shock.
“The Dems had undergone a split in 1960 over slavery”
So was Kennedy pro-slavery or against it?
700 Ron – that caravan has moved on. Don’t you knw you guys are now onto Obama and Acorn? C’mon man, keep up!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/11/us/politics/11acorn.html?em
Grog
You have to check out the script which It’s really classy stuff!
http://www.tmz.com/2008/10/09/get-a-load-of-this-whos-nailin-paylin-script/
I agree with this, the Democrats split, which helped Lincoln win.
But he was also the best candidate.
But he topped 50% in those three states you mentioned.
That makes sense, they are all Northern states.
Grog
Diogenes INITIATED a post on william ayers claiming McCain was lying
All I demonstrated is Obama lied about Ayers His OWN factsheet site ONLY mentions 1969 riots , zero about terorist William Ayers following 6 years of bombing Obama is a liar for deceiptively misleading any readerof his site that 1969 riots was all Ayers did , that is a gross lie by Obama against his own rusted on supporters
does any one wish to challenge that ? (McCains site is similarly full of lies for Republican rusted on
Yeah, McCain also met with Jerry Falwell who said Americans were partly responsible for 9/11.
Enough about freakin’ William Ayers already.
707 Diogenes ok, script?? Oh so it’s one of those arty films
My point exactly! It was the geographic concentration of Republican support that won Lincoln the election; not the Democratic split.
My recollection from reading Shelby Foote’s Civil War history is that Lincoln actually ran as a moderate. He didn’t run on an Abolitionist platform in 1960, rather he ran on a platform to simply hold the union together. So he held a very nuanced position to try to broaden his support from Democrats.
Sounds like a comedy.
I am reminded of the Oz going non stop over Burkegate thinking they had Rudd sunk. Nobody cared about it except them. Now if they can link Obama to the new porn video..
TP 694
Fear not – that was a repea of a Four Corners show from a year ago, when teh comment was made that the sub-prime fallut was 1/4 done. But its a lot further than that now.
One of my favourite economists (Krugman) has just won the Nobel Prize in Economics. Richly deserved IMO; he consistently puts analysis ahead of ideology.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7667190.stm
He is cited for his work on trade patterns but I think he deserves it at least as much for his frequent public questioning of neo-con economics in recent years. Always worth a read.
Gusface
You asked me about CIA files 2 nites ago and I’ve founfd what you asked for but in CIA , but in th Department of Justice with reference to th investigtion was under th FBI
William C. Ibershof , Chief Federal prosecutor of the Weather Underground in the 1970s in October in a letter to the editor published in The New York Times :
“As the lead federal prosecutor of the Weathermen in the 1970s (I was then chief of the criminal division in the Eastern District of Michigan and took over the Weathermen prosecution in 1972 ,
Although I dearly wanted to obtain CONVICTIONS against all the Weathermen, including Bill Ayers, I do take issue with the statement in your news article that the Weathermen indictment was dismissed because of ‘prosecutorial misconduct.’ It was dismissed because of illegal activities, including wiretaps, break-ins and mail interceptions, initiated by John N. Mitchell, attorney general at that time, and W. Mark Felt, an F.B.I. assistant director.”
If Obama wins, I hope he makes him Treasury secretary.
GWU/Battleground national tracking poll
Obama 51 (steady)
McCain 43 (steady)
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?blog=3748&perma=link
“John N. Mitchell”
he of the nixon tapes perchance-if so I doubt anything obtained under his name
as william (and others) has pointed out ayers is a non issue
asides,recollections,etc just hold no water.
simple question
If obama has somehow duped everyone-why?for what purpose?
I have seen this commentator on Lateline. Worth a read. He seems to be calling it for Obama.
http://blogs.smh.com.au/whitehouse08/archives/2008/10/obama_poised_to_win_electoral.html
713
Thanks William. I was trying to find a polite way to say something like that myself.
Not exactly.
BTW
the only ayers we should ever discuss is that fine poetess
pam ayres
eternal words of wisdom for all
“I wish I’d been that much more willin’
When I had more tooth there than fillin’
To pass up gobstoppers,
From respect to me choppers
And to buy something else with me shillin’.”
Sorry william
will restate @724
as myself (and others) has pointed out ayers is a non issue
If it is suggested William Ayers issue which along with economy is dominating US news , is NOT relevant to US electon & should not be discussed here then why not limit all discussion pro Obama
I man after it was relevant for a month of numerous posts on Palin including her family , het husband , her religion and indeed her OWN pregnancy
All this talk of “experience” being such a necessary quality brings to mind a wise old man from my past. He said that for intelligent people, experience was an opportunity to learn, but for unintelligent people it was just an opportunity to demonstrate their endurance.
I wonder what being Gov of Texas did for Bush, whatever foreign policy opportunities it may have offered.
Rasmussen national tracking poll
Obama 50 (down 1)
McCain 45 (steady)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Obama supporters claims of what is a non issue reminds me of th alleged intellegntsia “progressive” principals ar supposed to be free spech , libertarian diversity and non censorship , or does now trashed principal only apply if its pro obama comment
Or ar Obama supporters claiming to decide what should be posted now , which logicaly follows that non Obama supporters can also decide what is a non issue Well everyone then will b happy …and only positive comments will appear about both candidates Th very reverse of what th new internet news service sites was to offer against th MSN or is it elitism in practice I await a coment to obama supports circular argument and “progressive” principals
As to “experience” , Obama supporters for months hav “narratived” or spun a line that ‘expeerience’ does not matter , but only to camoflage Obama’ glaring inexperience It is illogical to argue experience does not matter , try that line in commercial business….Governorhip involves executive responsibility and active Senate legislation involvement is also a benefit….neither of which Obama is qualified in …and this is clearly McCain’s advantage & with FA Obama could be a risk especialy over Pakistan
……as against far better US standing in Europe & non develops but I suspoect ultimately not in M/E where th action reely is apart from Pakistan Whereas with Kyoto both ar duds
Of course if one goes beyond “experience’ and look at character , decency standards , judgement , governance , convictons history or religious beliefs then as a guide we end back at th candidate ‘associations’ history don’t we…those “non issues”
.
(PS/ Obama’s political advantages ar in Democrat idealology and in some domestic policys with many of his progressive ones ditched now , and whilst economics is a clear political likely electon decifding winner for him there is a lot of spin in that but voters hav bought it , seeing neither nor there Partys actually has a proud reglatory & prudential record at all , given there US psche , and NEITHER saw th collapse and we do not know what reely will replace current tainted market system except words & ‘faith’)
Looks like we have a new swing state: Minnesota State University poll of 606 voters has Obama leading 45-43 in North Dakota. And has anyone else heard chatter about Montana?
Mason-Dixon: Obama 47, McCain 45 in Nevada.
yes , th economic ruins of Wall Street & its reel and & to voters potentail flow on has cut right through otherwise traditional Republican allegiances & solid ‘red’ States
Marist Poll:
49-45 to Obama among likely voters in Ohio.
53-41 to Obama among likely voters in Pennsylvania.
669, Gus et. al,
Yes, still maintaining the list, NO worries
….. However, it is on another computer and NOT the one I am on at the moment ….. since you’ve asked, I will kindly post an update later on today, just watch this thread …..
Cheers
Missouri is back in the fold on the RCP no swing states map
……
The tipping point for Obama sceptics
My favourite political commentator Christopher Hitchens writes:
“It therefore seems to me that the Republican Party has invited not just defeat but discredit this year, and that both its nominees for the highest offices in the land should be decisively repudiated, along with any senators, congressmen, and governors who endorse them… Obama is greatly overrated in my opinion, but the Obama-Biden ticket is not a capitulationist one, even if it does accept the support of the surrender faction, and it does show some signs of being able and willing to profit from experience. With McCain, the “experience” is subject to sharply diminishing returns, as is the rest of him, and with Palin the very word itself is a sick joke. One only wishes that the election could be over now and a proper and dignified verdict rendered, so as to spare democracy and civility the degradation to which they look like being subjected in the remaining days of a low, dishonest campaign.”
I think this is a bit harsh on McCain personally, but broadly I have to concur, with considerable regret. McCain has proved to be a much worse candidate than I expected, and I think the Crash has tipped the policy balance firmly in favour of the Dems. The US and the world badly need to be rid of the Republican Party, and this must outweigh reservations about the qualifications of the candidate. My low opinion of Obama hasn’t changed, but at least he belongs to the right party. Given a choice between two inferior candidates, I have to support the one whose party will, with any luck, carry him in the right direction.
Yes Hitchens was too harsh on McCain; he is wearing some of teh flak for the mishandled bailout, which should be sheeted home to Bush and paulson. Still, if the financial crisis was a challenge which some (Brown, Sarkozy, even Rudd) have risen to, McCain certainly has not. He has been found wanting.
WB,
MT has been a “somewhat” swing state for a while – about the same as GA. No recent polls there, however.
That said, the ND poll results are rather shocking – Obama pulled out of ND after the GOP convention and hasn’t (to the best of my knowledge) been campaigning there for at least a month.
Some new polls out from SUSA:
GA: McCain +8 (previously McCain +11)
NJ: Obama +15 (previously Obama +10)
NY: Obama +33 (previously Obama +19)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/surveyusa_ga_nj_ny_101112.php
New USA Today/Gallup poll:
Obama +7
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_52_mccain_45_usa_toda.php
Rasmussen polls:
FL: Obama +5
MO: Obama +3
NC: Tie
OH: Obama +2
VA: Obama +3
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_october_12_2008
Is it possible that some people are telling pollsters that they are not going to vote for Obama, even though they intend doing so. Is there a reverse Bradley effect for Obama?
For the nervous nellies, a sensible analysis of how John McCain could win.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/13/obama/index.html
Adam, I think McCain is actually a decent person. Unfortunately in order to be elected he’s listened to Republican insiders who were responsible for Bush and their party’s current standing and his campaign has morphed into something I don’t think he wanted it to be. I thought I could almost see the old McCain when he was confronting supporters suggesting that Obama was an Arab or that they were afraid of Obama at a rally.
If you read Hitchens’ last three election related articles in Slate it was increasingly clear that he was going to endorse Obama. The reason is simple, he constantly demonstrated how the McCain campaign, as well as segments of the media (read: FoxNews), constantly misrepresent Obama’s foreign policy by making it seem more dove-ish than it actually is.
Florida is now “Leaning Obama” on the RCP Electoral Map.
North Dakota has changed from “Solid McCain” to “Leaning McCain” as well.
LOL! North Dakota
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