I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.4 | 39.1 | 1031 | 17 | |
| Iowa | 54.8 | 39.8 | 692 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.3 | 38.6 | 3142 | 21 | |
| Washington | 53.9 | 42.0 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.4 | 41.6 | 2760 | 4 | |
| West Virginia | 50.9 | 40.4 | 600 | 5 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.1 | 41.7 | 2641 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 51.2 | 41.3 | 3673 | 10 | |
| Virginia | 51.6 | 42.5 | 3183 | 13 | |
| Colorado | 50.6 | 42.8 | 3441 | 9 | |
| Florida | 51.1 | 43.7 | 3125 | 27 | |
| New Mexico | 47.7 | 40.6 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.9 | 45.0 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 50.8 | 44.6 | 1768 | 5 | |
| North Carolina | 49.3 | 44.7 | 3736 | 15 | |
| Ohio | 48.5 | 45.1 | 3418 | 20 | |
| Missouri | 48.9 | 46.6 | 1600 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.6 | 47.4 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 158 |
| RCP/Total | 49.9 | 42.3 | - | 369 | 169 |
905 Comments
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I’m looking at the Pollster.com map. Let’s say Obama loses Florida and Ohio, which currently are leaning his way on that map, and let’s say McCain wins all the yellow toss-up states (which just based on probability is extremely unlikely). Obama still wins with 273 votes!
THAT’S how far in front Obama is.
If ND did vote for Obama (which is still highly unlikely notwithstanding today’s poll), it would be the first time that the Dakotas would split their vote in a Presidential election since 1916.
Another possible “history-making” (if unexciting) moment for this election…
ShowsOn @ 751,
The toss-up state is now Virginia – a state where Obama currently leads by 6.5% on the RCP averages!!!
Rasmussen: Obama 51, McCain 46 in Florida; Obama 50, McCain 47 in Missouri; 48-all in North Carolina; Obama 49, McCain 47 in Ohio; Obama 50, McCain 47 in Virginia.
Catching up with Gus, here is my summary to date:
players – Dario, Diogenes, PhilOfSydney, ShowsOn, GaryBruce, Al, Gusface, Enjaybee, Sondeo, Grog and myself.
Everyone has said Obama.
Guesses –
Dario / 286
Diogenes / 293
PhilOfSydney / 306
ShowsOn / 309
GaryBruce / 310
Al / 311
Enjaybee / 338
Gusface / 348
Sondeo / 348
Grog / 348
Julie / 375
Gus, your tiebreakers are No for Obama taking Missouri and Colorado to put him over the top. Sondeo, yours are Yes for Obama to take Missouri and you didn’t give me the state you think will put him over the top. Grog, yours are the same as Gus’s are. If one or the other of you want to change anything there, let me know.
If anyone already in our little contest wants to change any thing on that list, you have until 10pm on Tuesday Nov. 4th to get me the changes. I’ll take the time stamp on any PB post to get that done. I will check the blog before I go to bed on Tuesday.
Anyone else wants in on our contest, you are more than welcome. We will take McCain supporters too, anyone is welcome. We need your guess as to which candidate will win the election. We also need your guess for the EV total. For tiebreakers, give answers to the following two questions – Will Obama take Missouri in the victory? and Which state will put Obama over the top [using the CNN election returns as that is the program I will watch on Wednesday]?
We don’t have any official prizes, this is all for pride only. You can say you were the one who had it right
.
Notes to earlier posts on this and other US threads where I’ve detailed this same information. IF there is any doubt at ALL about any specific state and their EV votes, i.e like Florida in 2000 where a state comes in LATER than the immediate 24 hours or so after the polls close, I’ll wait until all EV counts are settled before I post our winner [so it might not be posted right away
].
Further to 756, I will use the closest but smaller guess as the right one IF no one gets it right on. In otherwords, using the numbers we’ve all provided so far if the winning total is 336, I would declare Al the winner as Enjaybee’s 338 overstepped the final total.
William
There have been a few rumours that Democrat internal polling has Obama ahead in Montana by a couple of points. I haven’t been able to confirm them so I didn’t mention it. You know me, I will only ever post completely reliable verifiable facts.
dio,
what are the sources of your rumours?? if a net website, please post its URL, i can use a new news source to browse, if someone has that kind of information, thats a site I want to be visiting on a regular basis
……..
From an Obama blog on MySpace, I’m on their mailing list. MySpace though isn’t viewable by anyone other than MySpace members so it doesn’t do any good to post the full link. This is a cut and paste for one of his economic policy plans to help get the economy back in sync. For the next 2 years, every company that hires a new employee that they didn’t previously have will get a tax credit for every such new employee.
Here is another one that will help people as well ….
757
Julie, sounds like you’ve watched a bit of “The Price is Right” in your time.
juliem, I thought I had said he wouldn’t win Missouri and that Colorado would put him over the top. I’ll go back through the threads to make sure.
juliem
It was in a few comments on blogs. There was no link.
763, no worries, I’ve changed it to what you just mentioned ……
It appears that Steve Schmidt, who has run possibly the worst campaign in history, wants to lose. He says that being 6% behind in the polls shows that he’s got Obama right where he wants him. Drudge is cherry-picking the closer national polls and ignoring all the bad ones. The talk is that McCain wants to change direction but can’t be seen to be shifting because the polls are diabolical. The Repugs are trying to pretend that the momentum is shifting to McCain but they have to ignore reality to do so. They’re very frustrated.
Obama up in ND??? Sink the Bismarck!
More bad news for McCain. Their best polls have been Zogby, who incidentally said the race was very even a fwe days ago. Yesterdays Zogby was trumpeted as narrowing to 4%. Todays is out to 6% again. And my humble apologies to Drudge who has leaked this bad poll for McCain. Perhaps he’s given up.
ZOGBY TUESDAY: OBAMA 49%, MCCAIN 43%.
There has been endless commentary from Hillary supporters here that Obama is only winning because of the stock market crash. On one level, this can easily be countered by looking at McCain’s Hail Mary choice for VP as he knew he needed a miracle before the Crash. And Obama was ahead of McCain before the Crash. Still, some people are impervious to reality.
Some of the neocons in the US don’t agree either. They say that Obama’s commanding lead and almost certain victory are the CAUSE of the US Crash, not the EFFECT.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MmViOTNkM2VkMTAwOTJjMGE3NjA1ZmY3NTcwMmQwODg=
lol anyone who has that opinion should be laughed out of town
For those that want a good laugh, this is a good site…………
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/bldailyfeed3.htm
On Pres Bush……
“His big line was today: ‘We are a prosperous nation with immense resources and a wide range of tools to deal with this problem. And he’s right: he’s a tool, Bernanke’s a tool, Paulsen’s a tool, Alan Greenspan, a huge tool.” –Bill Maher
A couple more…….
“Naturally the smart thing to do to solve your economic woes is to demonize the Democrats. And of course, Sarah Palin is more than happy to oblige. She’s been saying that Obama hangs out with terrorists. And you know, I think the evangelical lady who’s in a video getting blessed by a witch doctor, who’s married to a secessionist, and can’t name a newspaper — she’s right, Obama is scary.” –Bill Maher
“The question she keeps asking at all of the rallies is, ‘Who is Barack Obama?’ You know what, genius, maybe if you’d picked up a newspaper in the last year you’d know. He’s the guy who’s kicking your ass.” –Bill Maher
Geez, these guys would have a field day with our lot.
Love Bill Maher
Merkley (D) +5 in Oregon Senate race from latest SUSA poll.
That is a must-win seat for the Dems if they want to have 60 seats in the new Senate…
It’s easy to see 59 seats for the Dems. The 60th is much harder – they will have to win MS, KY or GA. The Repubs are ahead in all three at the moment.
Diog, are you denying the fact that before the crash that Obama and McCain was even or at most Obama was +2 at RCP. And now, Obama is +7 on RCP. Please explain. So who is:
Hillary would have been +20 by now.
Nonsense. The RCP historical graph clearly shows that Obama has been ahead of McCain most of the time (and often by a decent lead), and the only real lead McCain had was after his convention.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
And Rudd would have been up by 50
I doubt KY will be the 60th seat for the Dems – it’s probably the least likely of MS, KY and GA to fall at this stage.
Currently, it seems that GA (Chambliss) is the most likely of the 3 to fall – if the Dems can keep him under 50% in the polls before election day, they should be able to pick the seat up due to (expected) Obama coattails and the fact that undecideds tend to break 2:1 against the incumbent late in the race…
776
Whether you win by +20 or +6 it makes no difference. You’re still the President.
My guess is that after a year or two the American people will know they have made a very good choice. .
Just to further follow up on your nonsensical post, on RCP Obama was +7.5 at the end of June, +5 at the end of July, +4.8 in mid-August, and +6.4 in early September, all before the US banks collapsed. His lowest lead was +1.2 for all of a week in late August.
Not sure if this poll had been posted…
Pennsylvania
Muhlenberg College / Morning Call
10/9-13/08; 580 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 51, McCain 38
(Obama up 9 from 25/9)
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Release_10_13_08.pdf
Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac bailout was announced on the Sunday, 6/9/07. That was the starting point of the collapse.
These are the numbers from RCP in the early Sept:
Newsweek 09/10 – 09/11 1038 RV 46 46 Tie
Battleground* 09/07 – 09/11 1000 LV 44 48 McCain +4
Associated Press/GfK 09/05 – 09/10 812 LV 44 48 McCain +4
FOX News 09/08 – 09/09 900 RV 42 45 McCain +3
Gallup Tracking 09/07 – 09/09 2714 RV 43 48 McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking 09/07 – 09/09 3000 LV 48 47 Obama +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/07 – 09/09 902 RV 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/06 – 09/08 860 RV 46 45 Obama +1
ABC News/Wash Post 09/05 – 09/07 LV 47 49 McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 09/05 – 09/07 823 LV 44 54 McCain +10
CBS News 09/05 – 09/07 655 RV 44 46 McCain +2
CNN/OpinionResearch 09/05 – 09/07 942 RV 48 48 Tie
IBD/TIPP 09/02 – 09/07 868 RV 45 40 Obama +5
CBS News 09/01 – 09/03 734 RV 42 42 Tie
Enough rope.
Sunday, 6/9/07 – Sunday, 6/9/08
Um, you’re looking at polls immediately after the Republican Convention (Sept 1-4). Of course they favoured McCain, it’s called a ‘Convention bounce’. Got anything else other than nonsense?
John McCain has been falsely “narrated” by th new Age information technology so widely that it has been accepted a “fact” , even by otherwise wise peoples
John McCain on his proven record is an very legislator and further skilled Leader given his “negotioations” history with Democrats over a decade
IF one separates above matters , those qualities , his basic decency standards as a person so disgracefully trashed here and and his conciderable experience make easily able to be a very sound POTUS for th world , “Spin” & th Net has convinced knowledge pundits wrongly otherwise
What has occurred is
1/ McCain is not a good Election campaigner (is that so critical) ,
2/ has faced a very biased unrelenting Liberal progressive manstream & internet Media desperate for there “man’ to be elected ,
3/ a masswive underlying undercurrent of “its time’ factor
4/ a justified animosity to Bush factor 5/ a general anti Republican feeling
….YET he was still competitive up to be 3 weeks ago ….since then Palin’s inexperience has shown ……BUT th game changer totally reely has been th economic meltdown its attribution to Republican ‘brand’
…AND ZERO fromm Obama in a “postive” sence contributing to that last approx 3 weeks vote surge
So I for one go back to my first 3 paragrapghs and suggest none of that has changed reely…what has changed is “re-narrativing “ that to fit current voting trends/likely very solid obama win (that’s making th kettle fit current political reality rather than accepting a subsequent ‘event’ (Wall Street) plus some Palin changed votes…McCain’s assets ar still th same & rewritinfg history won’t change that in objective historys
New Missouri polls
****
Putting aside Hillary – Obama debates, McCain is clearly toast. It looks like the concerted action of western govenments is now ending the financial crisis, although that means it haw stopped getting worse – a lot of damage has still been done. But the real clanger for the republicans is that the solution has come from Europe and is now being adopted by Paulson and Bush. Even after they got agreement to their $700billion bailout, it didn’t actually work till smarter governments like Brown in England started guaranteeign bank borrowings, to restore confidence. Also, his plan saw the government buying equity, which means taxpayers will get their money back in the future, whereas the Bush treasury has spent a fortune, some of which is just gone.
But that’s SOCIALISM!!!
Hahaha this is a funny article…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-biggest-loser/2008/10/13/1223749932356.html
God Bless Donald Rumsfeld. He was absolutely right about the Unknown Unknown.
The UU will always beat us, will always ahead of us. We like to think we are very clever, the master of the Universe. But UU will always be like the speed of light. Something that we can never catchup.
790 Dario,
Would you ever expect to see a “Joe Six Pack” type of guy (to borrow Sarah Palin’s words) with an order of sushi and a mineral water?
…..
No, probably with a six pack and a couple of hotdogs
…..
While I hadn’t heard those sorts of stats before, it is hardly surprising when you look underneath the surface
No, very true
Its a correlation on poverty. Poor people have the worst diets, and the majority of the (white) poor vote republican, under the deluded belief that a bunch of pals of big-business actually care about them. The middle class are in better shapre, and more often vote democrat. The really rich are too few in number to influence the stats.
RCP have updated their map today. Dems now have solid or leaning 304 EV’s. Only 7 states are tossup now (NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, WV & NC) worth a collective 76. Florida is now leaning Obama while Ohio is still tossup. If Obama wins all of the tossups and keeps his solid and leaning, that is 380.
Looking good
McCain and Palin have Saturday Night Live against them now. As surely as The Chaser sounded Howard’s death knell, everyone knows they are gone, and they know it too. Hence the constant shifts in tactics from good cop – dumb cop back to good cop – bad cop.
Figures on spending for advertising and visits to battleground states ….
Moral of the story – money wins you elections.
If the GOP are spending $1.6M per week in PA, where they are losing by double digits, their ads must really REALLY suck
That said, it will be interesting to see where the $1.25M that was spent in MI will go now that McCain has pulled out of the state. Presumably it will go to states like FL, VA and NC in order to bridge the currently massive gap in ad spending in those states.
It can’t hurt
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