I’ve added a new item of methodology for state polling aggregates: as many days’ worth of polling will be included from a given state as is necessary to produce a sample of more than 3000. The base line remains October 1. Apart from that, polls are being adjusted to incorporate the shift in the Real Clear Politics national average since the time they were conducted. Two developments are worth noting. We have a new swing state in West Virginia, where an American Research Group survey shows Obama with a shock 50-42 lead. This reverses the result from the last poll in the state (by Rasmussen) on September 24, so it should be treated with caution for the time being. Conversely, another American Research Group survey has McCain leading 49-46 in Missouri, which cuts Obama’s aggregate lead there from 2.2 per cent to 0.2 per cent.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.4 | 39.1 | 1031 | 17 | |
| Iowa | 54.8 | 39.8 | 692 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.3 | 38.6 | 3142 | 21 | |
| Washington | 53.9 | 42.0 | 700 | 11 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.4 | 41.6 | 2760 | 4 | |
| West Virginia | 50.9 | 40.4 | 600 | 5 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.1 | 41.7 | 2641 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 51.2 | 41.3 | 3673 | 10 | |
| Virginia | 51.6 | 42.5 | 3183 | 13 | |
| Colorado | 50.6 | 42.8 | 3441 | 9 | |
| Florida | 51.1 | 43.7 | 3125 | 27 | |
| New Mexico | 47.7 | 40.6 | 1159 | 5 | |
| Maine | 51.9 | 45.0 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 50.8 | 44.6 | 1768 | 5 | |
| North Carolina | 49.3 | 44.7 | 3736 | 15 | |
| Ohio | 48.5 | 45.1 | 3418 | 20 | |
| Missouri | 48.9 | 46.6 | 1600 | 11 | |
| Indiana | 45.6 | 47.4 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 158 |
| RCP/Total | 49.9 | 42.3 | - | 369 | 169 |
905 Comments
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Grog, you are forgiven.
Diogenes,
I’m sure you do. But, since you drive a lamp, enlightenment would be a pre requisite of existence would it not?
Amigo FINNS
“the drinks are on me.”
I’m in that However after you run out of money then they ar on me ….may as well hav a good sesson of celebration
Ok, so why should the GWB handicap be as great as 15%?
/Edward Scissorhands style on
Hi
Greensborough
Growler!
Oh OK, but what about McCain associating himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?
Hey Ron, what does “core ‘left’ policys” actually mean?
I don’t think it actually matters how (and if) Obama gets 270 votes in the E.C. A win is a win is a win.
Same here! That makes two of us.
Forgive me not Finns!
But as proof I give you (ahem) my blog posting on the issue:
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2008/07/obama-and-u2.html
showson
you spin me out sometimes dude
#857
“you ShowsOn SPIN me out sometimes dude ”
Second word sums up prefectly , will keep that quote thanks for plagarism
Grog
if you ar satisfied with Diogenes #845 narrative dreams then you ar easly satisfied , however psephologicaly Obama should be miles ahead which was FINNS point & there ar reasons why Obama should hav been yet 3 weeks ago it was close
Lateline is talking about the real culprit of the meltdown, the CDS Credit Default Swaps.
ron
ecuse ignorance
what plagarism exactly?
Sorry! No harm intended.
LOL! The second word is “ShowsOn”?
Obama is 42% ahead in the 9th dimension Ron, you should know that by now.
showson,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkLXdLgOybE&feature=related
shows
no harm at all,i just love your posts and sometimes I dont get them at first reading
“What about the fact McCain associated himself with someone who blamed 9/11 on Americans?”
3842 ShowsOn You hav cut & pasted these exact words for WEEKS (probably 14 times) But Socrates must like your repetition seeing no objection from him
Why do you not hav intelectual integriys to say who ?
Now you repeated th same words exact cut & past again .. and again without saying who (ar you afraid what comparative Wright to Obama and vice vers quotes I hav)
Quinnipiac:
Colorado: Obama 52%, McCain 43%
Michigan: Obama 54%, McCain 38%
Minnesota: Obama 51%, McCain 40%
Wisconsin: Obama 54%, McCain 37%
Amigo Ronnie, deja vu, is the Man from the Showy River back?
859 – it was joke joyce.
Why ‘psephologicaly’ Obama should be miles ahead?
Isn’t 10% miles ahead? It’s a freakin landslide, and also to me seems “‘psephologicaly” about right.
I see no reason why Obama should beat McCain better than Clinton beat Dole.
McCain is better than Dole IMO; the power of incumbancy of Clinton is = to the negative of the Bush factor…
finns
where is your nemesis kr these days btw
[showson,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkLXdLgOybE&feature=related
greensborough growler,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B35rYEkYgvs&feature=related
860 – CDS you got that right.
Good article in Time (from March this year)
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1723152,00.html
Amigo FINNS
a test in lateral logic and commonsense
#857 Gusface “you ShowsOn SPIN me out sometimes dude ”
#856 Ron Second word sums up prefectly , will keep that quote thanks for plagarism
#ShowOn #862 LOL! The second word is “ShowsOn”?
I just knew a literalist would take my words ‘Second word’ and actualy repeat th quote of oneself , where is some competition amigo
Ron
did i palgarise you as your 856 indicates.
Please clarify
Yes, because the words “second” and “word” actually have specific meanings.
Ron, what does “core ‘left’ policys” actually mean?
ShowsOn, you’ve used this argument four times on this thread alone. Just as I’ve asked Ron to give William Ayers a rest, so I’m asking you with this.
#868
Whilst result may not change , FINNS & later I were simply explaing voters reactions to policys , candidates & events without narratives being written based on a messahiac belief it was all of a sudden th Obama message had been received There were psephological reaons why up to a mere 3 weeks weeks ago it was close (when it should NOT hav been and certainly (leave Hillary out) would not hav been say with AL Gore …and why since then there has been an Obama surge (and despite some nonsensical polling info given here , th polls support what we hav said)
Who proposed this “messahiac” belief?
This is really weird. I got this email with “This communication is not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee” but why it was signed by “Barack”.
Finns
I got one from mccain yesterday
except it was a telegram
Looks like a phishing scam to me.
LOL!
and all it said was …..
send money-preferably pesos
William Bowe #713
Posted Monday, October 13, 2008 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
“Enough about freakin’ William Ayers already.”
There had been exchanges that nite on Ayers I took that comment simply as a request for that nite and replied arguing William Ayers was legitmate issue able to reasonably continue to discuss on this Thread which I propose to do beleiving Ayers was not censored subject and asume my intyerpretation was ok
Ron #730
Posted Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 12:01 am | Permalink
“If it is suggested William Ayers issue which along with economy is dominating US news , is NOT relevant to US electon & should not be discussed here then why not limit all discussion pro Obama
I man after it was relevant for a month of numerous posts on Palin including her family , het husband , her religion and indeed her OWN pregnancy”
.
.
(whereas ShowsOn repetition is a different issue , its NOT an key eklection issue like Ayers and I was simply highlightling to him his repetition without him saying who he was talking about)
ron
did you get the telegram as well perchance?
william
I know a good poetess named falwell (though a tad dirtier than pam )
Not sure who, but an earlier commenter suggested it was McCain’s response to the financial crisis that torpedoed his campaign. I tend to agree.
It is clear now that he didn’t have any idea at all what to do about it. His declaration during the first debate that he would massively cut government spending if elected has now been shown to be exactly the opposite of what was required – with all western governments, including Australia, now opening the purse strings to try and head off, or minimise, a threatening world wide recession. Even the once revered and untouchable surplus is now being spent to try and reactivate economic activity.
With an apparent inabilty to recognise and adapt to the fact that many of the major tenets of our world financial system have now been swept away, McCain has simply been left behind. .
.
He got the Morse code version.
I assume that’s what Ron uses to tap out his posts here.
Darn,
I reckon Bush’s 23 % popularity rating and the implicit trashing of the Republican brand is a cross that McCain has struggled to bear. Basically, Obama has kept his mouth shut and offerred nothing but platitudes. This is good politics.
However, I wouldn’t be projecting magical powers on Obama as yet. If he wins, he gets to clean up all the crap.
Who has been projecting magical powers on Obama?
“Who has been projecting magical powers on Obama?”
Palins witchdoctor?
Looks like there might be more to come for Palin…
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/555288.html
Dario,
I’m sure you hope so. But, it’s a non issue except for people who are fair and balanced but already made up their mind.
ron,finns
in the interest of fair play i came across this article
sort makes sense,but like howies run here -too little too late
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/JJ15Aa01.html
“Instead of name calling and phony charges that lead everyone off-track, McCain should say he’ll talk about the real issues and his real solutions. After all, that’s why he wants to be president. With the economy increasingly the key issue, McCain needs to keep getting specific and pushing Obama to do the same. “
You should think about a job with Fox News…
Dario,
You should think about a job.
GG Amigo
he would need to learn my correct grammar speling & syntax’s first to get an executive job interview as thats th light to clarity
“It is clear now that he (MCcain) didn’t have any idea at all what to do about it (Bailout etc) ”
As I suggrested with #868 , it is not what has caused change from close race from 3 weeks ealier , although your feel of his knowledge may hav merit
GG 887
Tend to agree with a lot of what you said.
What, and miss all the fun in here?
Rasmussen national daily tracking poll unchanged from yesterday:
Obama 50
McCain 45
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Gusface
Answer to your ealier question is NO , you’ve misread meaning without first smiling
Answer to your comment re a poster “I dont get them at first reading” AGREE
answer to “in the interest of fair play i came across this article” is th 60% of argument on issues approach espec conomy 7 having an czar expert has lots of merit & should be implemented with 70% MCain time emphasis , whilst re th 40% of article on ‘name callling’ I completely disagree with th writer becauase th writer completely misunderstands Obama’s weakness in this area & foolishly wants to drop it all , whilst parodoxicaly McCain & Palin hav th ammuition but there use of it is typical swift boats nonsense & often lies , as they misunderstand what th ammunition means
Hahahahahaha talk about dumb!
http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/stories/wvec_top_101308_mccain_rally.10ac0eb1e.html
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