Comments on: ACT election: Molonglo

By: MDMConnell

MDMConnell — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 22:48:41 +0000

Having Zed as leader- and apparently a fairly popular one- should give a boost to the Liberal vote here. Assuming the Mulcahy vote was more for the party and not him personally, at least some of it will flow back to the Liberals. This should be enough to give them 3 seats.

Greens should easily win the other seat, but a 2nd Green and/or independent doesn’t look likely unless there’s a tight, co-ordinated preference arrangement (which might happen).

Labor should win their 3 seats comfortably- they were all elected before the Liberal candidates in 2004.

By: David Bagnall

David Bagnall — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:41:37 +0000

William et al

Good review. Important to remember that a quota in Molonglo is 16.667% of the vote (100% divided by 5 members plus one) which makes the electorate more competitive than the other electorates for all parties.

For Labor to retain three ministers (Corbell, Barr and Gallagher they need greater than 50% of the vote following distribution of preferences from candidates who have missed out. This will come down to the sequence of elimination of other parties as to whether they will get all three ministers back.

For Libs Zed is certain to be re-elected but it is very unclear who of the Libs will pick up their second seat. Kent as a former President has a profile, and Clinton White is community FM radio voice. Jacqui Burke is no certainty despite having had two stints in the Assembly

Since the Canb Times polls the major parties have attacked the Greens. It is also very unclear who will pick up the last seat and it will probably involve a margin of less than 100 votes

By: Generic Person

Generic Person — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 12:25:17 +0000

No 12

Ain’t that the truth.

By: Oz

Oz — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 05:33:00 +0000

Asians can’t drive?

Ba-dum-tish.

By: Michael Cusack

Michael Cusack — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 01:27:32 +0000

Is the Burl Dobell standing for the Motorists the same person who stood for One Nation in Eden Monaro a couple of elections ago? Do the two parties have some core beliefs in common?

By: Oz

Oz — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:07:21 +0000

I’ll have you know that he’s a senior investigative reporter, thank you very much.

By: Frank Calabrese

Frank Calabrese — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 15:42:20 +0000

Frank Pangallo, the high-profile former mayor of Queanbeyan

who should not be confused the with the Today Tonight South Australian”Journalist” of the same name.

http://au.todaytonight.yahoo.com/teambio/37225/frank-pangallo

By: arkem

arkem — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 11:44:53 +0000

Also running in Molonglo is a large variety of independents and minor party types.

Including the Greg Tannahill running for the Democrats from the Ungrouped column of the ballot. He’ll the only person in that column without the word “Independent” next to his name.

Also the Liberal Democrats, the Australian Motorists Party and the Community Alliance Party are all running candidates in Molonglo. Though I’m not entirely sure of the circumstances that would put them into the Assembely. I wonder if there’s any polling that asks about minor parties? Though I guess for Canberra we’re lucky to have any polling at all.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 07:45:44 +0000

Thanks Adam, corrected. Tom, you’ve prompted me to remove the WA bit at least.

By: Adam in Canberra

Adam in Canberra — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 07:34:46 +0000

Frank Pangallo is the *former* Mayor of Qbn by the way.