Comments on: Taverner: 64-36 to Liberal in Ryde

By: Adam in Canberra

Adam in Canberra — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 03:26:04 +0000

J-D, thanks for correcting me and others about that matter. I have always been under the impression that the transfer was voluntary, but evidently I was mistaken.

By: mexicanbeemer

mexicanbeemer — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 02:23:11 +0000

Dovif!! The policy of encoraging home ownership is nowadays considered a by-partisen policy, yes I know the Republicans have had very slack regulation and while Howard saw himself as a Republican type his Government was left wing compared to the Bush administration.

By: mexicanbeemer

mexicanbeemer — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 02:20:08 +0000

If my memory serves me correctly the Nationals won the By-election for Tamworth when Tony Windsor moved to Canberra only to see an Independant win Tamworth at the following State Election.

While Port Maquarrie may be changing, I still think we should consider it National party heartland

By: mexicanbeemer

mexicanbeemer — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 02:16:12 +0000

From my understanding Ryde is very much a marginal seat!!

I have a rule of thump on voting patterns which is totally unbacked by any scienific evidence!

You have a group of voters I will say two! these two may not like the Government but in a normal election only one will change their vote.

Whilst in a landslide both will change, therefore when looking at a By-election result I always half the swing result so if the ALP do suffer a 24% swing which I think will be a record! then I would predict the ALP are looking at a 10%+ swing statewide.

One thing I have noticed is that Governments start off by winning a narrow election then at the following election score a large swing to them then at the following election there is a swing back towards the Opposition, normally in either very safe Government seats or opposition held seats

Then at the following the marginals swing knocking the Government out.

I think the real test for the ALP is what happens in Lakemba and Cabramatta, these two seats should not be lost after all Ryde stikes me as the sort of seat that the Liberals will need to win if they are too be in Government whilst the two soild ALP areas are close too if not the two safest ALP seats in the country.

By: dovif

dovif — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:58:11 +0000

Oz, the government also ask bank to give non-recourse loans (unlike Australia) ie if I cannot pay my mortgage, I give the property back to the bank and I have no liability

And then the property market drop 15%

By: Oz

Oz — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:13:50 +0000

Indeed, because a Leslie Williams win will be not so indicative of her own popularity or that of the Nationals brand but disaffection with the NSW government. Port Macquarie isn’t a rural die-hard conservative belt anymore.

By: Paul Nash

Paul Nash — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:10:21 +0000

In relation to the Port Macquarie by-election look for the Nationals Leslie Williams to recover the party’s brand in the midnorthcoast of NSW.

A Nationals victory in Port Macquarie will go a long way in repairing the damage of the loss of Lyne. The party will also remember though that when Tony Windsor switched from the state seat of Tamworth to Federal New England they won the Tamworth by-election only to lose the seat again at the 2003 NSW election. So if Leslie Williams wins Saturdays by-election they will have to work hard to ensure it remains a safe seat in the future.

By: Oz

Oz — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 00:01:44 +0000

“What cause this global credit crunch is the US policy of forcing banks (ie Freddie Mac and Frannie Mae) to lend to borrower, who cannot repay the loan.”

Oh psht. What a shallow analysis. That could possibly explain a few banks in the US posting negative returns, it can’t explain the complete collapse of the financial system in most of the developed world.

By: dovif

dovif — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 23:58:39 +0000

Mogfeature

The Liberals ideology is intellectually bankrupt on the world stage?

What cause this global credit crunch is the US policy of forcing banks (ie Freddie Mac and Frannie Mae) to lend to borrower, who cannot repay the loan.

The goal is a social goal of everyone being equal and everyone in America to own a home. These loans are then packaged and sold to investors

This is a liberal/socialist ideology, rather than a free market ideology. Note: The Liberals in Australia is the right wing party

By: Gusface

Gusface — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 23:26:21 +0000

once again J-D well done.
Was also Mings influence,though not overt or “wrong’,a factor in the states accepting the decision,though an appeal to the privy council was mooted (I think) at the time.