The Australian reports the latest Newspoll survey, the first in three weeks, shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 56 per cent while his dissatisfaction is down five to 32 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull has also performed well on his delayed first set of Newspoll leadership ratings (for some reason the question wasn’t asked last time), with 50 per cent satisfied and 25 per cent dissatisfied.
The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead down from 58-42 to 57-43. Also featured are numerous questions on attitudes to the financial crisis.
UPDATE: Further detail on Newspoll from Dennis Shanahan: primary votes are 41 per cent for Labor, 38 per cent for the Coalition and a record 13 per cent for the Greens. Kevin Rudd’s preferred leader rating is steady at 54 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull’s is up two points to 26 per cent. Turnbull in fact has a 1 per cent higher net approval rating (satisfaction minus dissatisfaction) than Rudd, whereas Rudd’s previous worst result relative to his opponent since becoming Labor leader was a lead of 28 per cent.
UPDATE 2 (14/10/08): The West Australian today carries polling on federal voting intention from the same 400-sample survey that produced yesterday’s state poll. Andrew Probyn reports:
The latest Westpoll survey showed the Federal coalition leading Labor in WA 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred status. Though it is the first time the coalition has led the ALP in a Westpoll since last year, it is still well below the 53-47 two-party preferred vote in the Federal election on November 24. However, it showed a significant turnaround from the two polls since the election. In June, when Brendan Nelson was Opposition leader, Westpoll showed the ALP leading 53-47 on the two-party preferred vote, down from a peak differential of 62-38 in April … The Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australians by telephone on the evenings of October 6-8, found that the coalition led on primary vote 46 per cent to the ALP’s 41 per cent (in June it was 42-42). After undecided votes were allocated according to previous elections, the coalition had 47 per cent to the ALP’s 42 per cent. On the measurement of preferred prime minister, Mr Turnbull had eroded Kevin Rudd’s lead. Mr Rudd, who had a preferred PM status of a massive 69 per cent in April against Dr Nelson’s paltry 14 per cent, was down to 54 per cent. Though Mr Rudd’s lead was still commanding over Mr Turnbull on 35 per cent, the gap had narrowed significantly even since June when he led Dr Nelson 59-21 … Asked who was better able to manage the economy, 44 per cent of respondents said Mr Rudd, while 40 per cent said Mr Turnbull. Among men, the leaders were evenly split 43-43. Among women, Mr Rudd was clear favourite, 46 per cent to 37 per cent.
760 Comments
What an astonishing reading of the result:
No mention of Preferred PM (which is the real fiigure – no one cares what Nelson’s satisfaciton was, all anyone remembers is he went below 10% on preferred PM).
And the poll just once again proves that Turnbull would kill Nelson at the next election….
Well now, this should prove hardly a challenge, for Dennis S. to spin for the Rainmaker.
… and still the 2PP cruelly refuses to move …
From the OO:
How is this an improvement for Turnbull, when it’s compared against Nelson?
The wording is clear: “Malcolm Turnbull has recorded a stunning turnaround”. How can you turn around from nowhere?
What’s an OO?
As I say BB, that Turnbull bloke is a shoe in to win every seat when he goes up against Nelson in 2010.
Yes only the OO (opposition orifice) can get bounces and turnarounds with a NO-CHANGE 2PP
Did this poll precede Turnbull’s scare-mongering, Rudd’s actions on the weekend and (I presume) the market bounce today? If so, I’d say it will get better for Rudd and wores for Turnbull.
It is somewhat interesting that that Rudd’s net satisfaction rating, at 24%, is lower than Turnbull’s, at 25%. Statistically negligible, but interesting nonetheless.
These polls would not include many (if any) interviews from Sunday and, most likely, the majority of interviewing would have been completed before the weekend. So assessment of the impact of the continuing financial crisis and Rudd’s response will have to wait another week. But indications are that the Rudd Government’s popularity is holding firm.
Oz. “The Australian” used to be called be the G.G. a.k.a The Government Gazette. Once the government changed hands, it became known as the Opposition Orifice or Organ, for obvious reasons.
No 11
The Age is the new Government Gazette.
GP @ 9
Satisfaction with the performance of the opposition leader is a somewhat ambiguous measure. Let’s see the preferred PM.
G.P. @ 9. Wouldn’t get too excited about that if I were you. The TPP ain’t moving. At all.
G.P. @ 12. The Age is now just about defunct, if you haven’t noticed. Pity, in my view.
GP 9 – Interesting? Absolutely meaningless.
No 14
It’s still not bad. Certainly not as egregious as 60/40; 58/42 and the like that we saw all the way through 2007.
The opposition is doing about as well as it can in the circumstances, especially since this is the first ALP Government in some 12 years.
No 16
Why is it meaningless? Looks like the public are roughly equally happy with the performances of both leaders.
Anybody watch 7.30 Report and, anything interesting said?
Generic Person @ 18 back to where you you began posting, it’s meaningless because the TPP is not moving.
I agree with you on that GP 18 but that wasn’t the point of your post at 9 was it?
No 20
The TPP is meaningless this far out from an election. They only become more instructive in the preceding months before an election. As such, it makes sense to analyse other statistical measures like PPM and satisfaction ratings. On the latter figures, Turnbull is doing much better than Nelson.
GP @ 18
I think a reasonable interpretation of these figures would be that the public are roughly equally happy with Rudd as PM and Turnbull as opposition leader. Which says little about how they compare them.
No 21
I did say that the difference was statistically negligible.
24 GP – true but you also said it was interesting. Just how something “negligible” is interesting is beyond me. It’s meaningless like I said. Anyway, moving right along.
Cheer yousrelf up G.P.
Drat. your self, already
I think that Fielding caving in on the Medicare Levy and Alcopops tax is mostly because he does not want a Double Dissolution (due to his likely defeat even though the quota is almost halved) especially on the Medicare levy.
DD or not, Fielding just realises that pulling financial stunts in the Senate to maximise your profile is not a good look right now. Thousands of the pensioners who voted for him might have lost a third of their retirement savings. He knows he has to be more careful now if he wants to be relected, whether now or in the future.
No 28
Fielding is proving to be an absolute idiot, the ultimate chameleon, changing sides as is automatically expedient. The parliament will rejoice when he is booted out next time.
IF Turnbull didn’t do better than Nelson he would be slashing his wrists. In fact Turnbull probably has got a comparison ‘bonus’ because anybody would have been a great relief after Nelson.
Now if he can only keep those Treasury leaks coming.
Agreed GP; he was elected on a statistical anomaly which magnified a preferencing error by Labor. He is out of his depth. Stunts might get you some media time, but you have to have substance behind it. I see no coherent policy pattern in his decisions.
GB #25: Sure it’s interesting. Rudd’s previous lowest advantage over his opponent on net satisfaction rating since he became leader in December 2006 was 28 per cent. Now it’s minus one.
No 32
What’s more, his reasons for changing his mind are spurious at best. The Government has just guaranteed 700 billion in bank deposits – the size of the budget surplus is inconsequential and makes a mockery of Rudd’s tirade about the need to pass the new taxes.
No 33
Interesting.
Seriously – focusing on a “satisfaction” rating … whatever floats your boat …
so we have “satification” now being focused on more than the PPM, and more than on who you will actually vote for … pffft
I’m satifisfied with Turnbull’s performance as Opposition Leader – he’s performing like a goose ..
No 36
Being an agent of a despotic dictator that exterminated his constituents…whatever floats your boat
Someone over athe Australian-Media Forum has posted a youtube of the promo for the upcoming ABC Documentary series on The Howard Years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFnFEF_5lbo
Turnbull’s performance as shadow Treasurer was pretty bad and was forever making a goose of himself. Apart from attacking the RBA and Treasury he did at one stage demand Treasury release some document to prove something he was saying which kinda of gave away the fact that had a contact(s) in Treasury leaking him info. Something someone from SBS commented on the other day.
I think the only thing that stops Turnbull from looking totally useless as Opposition leader at the moment is the leaking of information to him so he at least appears to have some idea. Once those leaks get closed up he will be flying blind again, not something he does really well as a politician.
I am intrigued when people say Turnbull is smart and I can only assume that they think so because he has gotten rich as a merchant banker (boo!) – he hasn’t demonstrated smarts as yet.
I also suspect that Turnbull is not going to get much assistance from the business community if their recent comments on him are anything to go by and, would appear that they are pleased with Rudd and Co at the moment.
Even Albrechtsen felt free to stick the knife into him today and praise Rudd on the financial crisis.
Frank Calabrese @ 38
Wonder if they will mention the SIEVX and the possible Howard govt complicity in the drowning of over 300 people in order to help their electoral prospects. I don’t believe it was so but the point was that the Howard govt had become seen as so empty of ethics and morality that people could genuinely ponder it as a possibility.
No 40
TP, the suggestion that the Australian Government, Labor or Liberal, would willingly allow or orchestrate the drowning of 300 people is simply outrageous.
No 38
Looks to be very good. Though I can’t see this as being helpful for Turnbull. When is it supposed to air?
Hello everybody. Been missing in action for a while but here goes. Neither Rudd nor Turnbull are even remotely in control of what is about to happen. Euro governments have just put the equivalent of about $Au2500,000,000,000 on the table to rescue the euro banks, get inter bank loans on the go, and so forth. There are several years for the real economy to absorb this level of pain and for the Ruddster to have the blow torch applied as a consequence. Current poll ratings are therefore about as irrelevant as they can get for the next election.
I was also having a quiet giggle at the expense of those staunch free marketeers on this blog who went to some lengths to explain that to have a government-run bank was a stupid idea, and the market should rule, OK. How a month changes things.
GP @ 40, wrong way to put the issue, perhaps? Sometime before SIEVX happened someone, outside of Government, asked me to suggest what sort of expedient could an Australian Government take in order to stop boat people. I suggested that the least cost would be to ‘bribe’ a few of the Indonesian authorities to stop it. I wasn’t promoting or supporting the idea, mind, just offering a view. My idea didn’t mean actually envisage ‘drown a boatload’. But guess what happened?
Neither black nor white in this one, but there are three areas of possible moral turpitude on the part of the Howard Government here. The first is that it did not care really very much how the Indonesian authorities put pressure on boat people not to sail to Australia. The second is that it did not really care very much what bad things might actually happen to boat people once at sea. The third bit of moral turpitude was that it was willing to bastardise boatpeople in the water for its own party political purposes. My view is that the truth is unlikely to ever be fully known in the sense of facts fully comprehended, and accepted as supported by the avialable evidence. Too much grey filth in the grey areas of truth. Too many people with too much to lose in it ever coming out straight. However, alternative questions are available to be considered: Would all those women and children have drowned in a hopeless mass of terror in the water had the Howard Government had different policy settings towards: (1) What it wanted from Indonesian authorities (2) How it welcomed refugees. (3) how it expeced the Australian navy to behave? Probably, no. Did it care for those women and kids? I leave that for others to answer.
Is it possible there’s less to be dissatisfied (and I suppose satisfied) in with an Opposition Leader as opposed to a Prime Minister? I’d imagine unless you’re particularly woeful it’s hard to be dissatisfied with irrelevant statements. I have to say I don’t see the attraction at all in Turnbull but it’s hard to imagine how out of his depth Nelson would be in presenting an Opposition line on the current economic situation.
Boerwar @ 43,
Spot on with your comments about both the irrelevance of current polling figures and the stupidity of blanket condemnations of government-owned institutions.
If this financial crisis is what it looks like (ie one of the top two financial crises in history), and if the next election happens in two years’ time, we won’t be talking about the same issues as we have been for the past 15 years. Instead we’ll be talking about jobs, jobs, and jobs.
As for what Brown has done in the UK, it seems to me to be the least worst option available right now, but if someone has a better idea, we’re all listening. Luckily the Australian banks seem much better placed, even now, than almost any other country’s.
As for Rudd’s handling of the crisis? Fine so far, but as you say, what can he really do anyway?
Didn’t Crean in 2002 have a PPM of about 26?
Surely, the incresase in personal satisfaction ratings for Turnbull compared to Nelson are simply a reflection of Liberal supporters being more comfortable with Turnbull as their leader. On the old figures it was pretty clear that most Lib supporters preferred Rudd to Nelson.
A fairly devastating and unsustainable situation one would have thought.
Given the dire circumstances we are in, this is a very good result for Rudd. A year into the term, Labor is still polling better than it did at the election – in other words the Libs haven’t even got back to where they were on election night. And this poll was taken before the announcement of the $5bn stimulus package, which will neutralise the government’s biggest current negative, the pensioners. Of course Turnbull has higher ratings than Nelson, he’s a much more engaging personality and gets a much better press. But the fact is that he has not turned the Libs’ deficit around. If, as I suspect, conservative parties in all English-speaking countries are suffering in the public estimation through their association with Bush, and are being blamed for the current disasters, the Libs are in the ironic position of having to hope that Rudd succeeds in extricating Australia from the Bush train-wreck so that they can escape the odium of having been Bush’s ideological soulmates.
Turnbull’s frustration at being consigned to an irrelevant position is showing,he can sound off but he cant be there making the descisions, pressing the buttons and being in the spotlight making the announcments, he’s not the one world leaders are conferring with, by that he also cant be getting the kudos for any good economical policies, Rudd has come across as honest, serious, confident and all cards on the table,–really statesmanlike , i heard someone on radio describe Turnbull as a yapping dog on the outside jumping up and down yelping “look at me, look at me”, dunno that i’d go that far but it made me smile visualising it.
It’s a good result for the Liberal party and the country ( we do need a viable opposition) as it weakens the nutty right wing within the party. If there had been no movement the nutty right position would not have been weakened and the instability and problems they cause would go on for longer.
Generic Person@40
TP, the suggestion that the Australian Government, Labor or Liberal, would willingly allow or orchestrate the drowning of 300 people is simply outrageous.
Ummm, Howard and the Liberal party will have to live with it, and silence might be the better option.
I agree with GP on SIEVX. The people to blame are the people-smugglers and the corrupt Indonesian officials who enabled them.
GP doesn’t happen often but I just wanted to let you know that I agree that Turnball’s satisfaction numbers ARE intersting. He is obviously doind a better job of opposition leader than Half in the eyes of the electorate – my guess is because he is moving away from the Mom and Pop nonsence and putting forward actual ideas.
The numbers are all the more interesting because of the lack of any real movement in the headline TPP. It seems that the electorate now feels quite well served (and better represented) by both Lab and Lib at a federal level than we have seen for a long time. Could it be that the death of Howards divisive politics IS actually restoring faith in politics and politicians?
Maybe something to be learned for both Lab and Lib at the state level. Perhaps people really are tired of the (increasingly nonexistant and outdated) traditional battle lines?
No 44
Sorry, but that’s rubbish. It’s interesting that you’re all quick to lay blame on the Howard government, yet are not even willing to accept that these boat people were also known to willingly sabotage their own boats (and thus the lives of themselves and their children) in the hope of getting saved.
But of course, no-one will say that is morally turpiditudinous.
turpid
For a government to fall so low that people could even think it could be involved in deaths for electoral advantage is an indication what a lowly creature it had become. It didn’t get much better for the Howard government’s reputation after that – baby over board, AWB, Hick’s incarceration without trial for years, Muslim bashing scare mongering, Haneef fabrication, lying Australia into war and the other usual stuff that became common fare with Howard’s lot and neo-conservatives generally – the government and politics of hate, greed, fear and retribution. No point in rehashing in detail all of the Howard era’s sickness here but it does serve as a reminder just have how lucky we were that Rudd came along when he did and saved Australia at the 11th hour.
I could just imagine the Howard hatchet men using the current crisis to implement Workchoices phases 2, 3 and 4 well and truly making us indenture servants of corporate Australia. So I guess no matter what happens electorally we know that that sinister Dalek has been extricated from power and Australia made safe from him.
Syllable-wise, “turpitudinous” is turgid, but it’s in the OED.
(”turpiditudinous” isn’t.)
TP, whether the children were thrown overboard or not, the outcome is the same since the boat’s passengers were willingly sabotaging it such that it would sink and therefore force the navy to save them. Costello argued as much, and I agree with him. What parent in their right mind would put their child’s life at risk unnecessarily in the middle of the Indian Ocean?
As for David Hicks, he served 6 years for fighting with terrorists. Enough said.
The intelligence relied upon in Iraq was also the intelligence relayed to the United Nations. That it may have been fabricated or mistaken by the CIA is not the fault of Howard. Indeed, the UN was sufficiently worried enough in saying that thousands of chemical agents could not be accounted for.
AWB is not a government-controlled entity, but it is a protected monopoly. A royal commission found no wrong doing by the Government. Insinuate all you want, but you can’t misrepresent the facts.
Rubbish.
Plenty of people think governments are complicit in some sort of wrongdoing. It’s not particularly unique. By your logic, it would be appropriate to use same argument about Rudd’s involvement with Brian Burke. The fact that his character had become so eroded as to be seen to be in the pocket of Brian Burke…..
No 59
Yes, sorry I can’t edit posts. Typo.
It will be a long road home for us Libs, but so long as Malcolm brings the TPP vote to 53/47 in favour of Labor by the end of the year I will be a happy man.
I just wish we had 1st Past the Post voting, Prefential voting is just stupid!
The Poll would then read if we had 1PTP…
ALP – 41
Coalition – 38
Greens – 13
That looks much more like a closer political landscape then 55-45 doesnt it!
turpid is the root adjective and is much more elegant. the false chain turpid > turpitude > turpitudinous is as bas as: administer > administration > administrate, though not as common.
Perhaps we should just have the Divine Right of Members for Wentworth, Glen?
GP
Defending the indefensible only reminds people of the past. Noecon politics is over, big time. If the Liberal party is to have any future it has put the past behind it and move to the center.
“turpid is the root adjective and is much more elegant”
You might be right, but I’m generally wary of such prescriptions! (Due to years of suffering pernickety know-it-alls in the letters pages of broadsheet newspapers …)
So now, if I’m reading this article right, on Alcopops Allbull is all alone
“Liquor industry changes alcopops tune”
“In these challenging economic times it is more important than ever that the federal parliament makes decisions that protect the Australian economy and do not lead to a shortfall in Government revenues,” DSICA spokesman Stephen Riden said
http://news.smh.com.au/national/liquor-industry-changes-alcopops-tune-20081013-4zvp.html
Fredn at number 64 wrote:
That’s their trouble. They remain stubbornly convinced of the ‘rightness’ of their position, on nearly everything.
Take WorkChoices, probably the principal reason for their removal from office last year.
One might reasonably expect that, after flying that particular policy, then seeing how the people hated and feared it, the Liberals might admit they were out of touch and have a rethink on matters IR.
But, nope, they stubbornly cling to their extremist position …
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24439000-5013404,00.html
The Australian, 3 October 2008
(my emphasis)
So … in other words, they are admitting that people don’t like it or want it, but the Party is not about to drop it!
Stay tuned for them to impose philosophically-extreme IR if they are ever re-elected.
Their ABC rooting for Allbull like their life depends on it!
Have a look at their take on the Govt $5bil package
Big smiling photo of Allbull with heading
“Turnbull to back expected stimulus package”
Seems they no longer even bother to report Govt policy announcements anymore just make big bold headlines of the Fibs reply trying to give them credit.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2008/10/14/2390199.htm
And this on their top stories
Same photo of Allbull with heading “$5 billion tonic?” giving the first glance impression that it’s his policy
http://abc.com.au/news/
Inner Westie, the point about pernickity know-it-alls is that they do, by definition, know it all. So pay attention.
LOL
(Oh, alright.)
We were saying here yesterday that the quickest and most effective way to boost economic activity was direct cash payment increases running in conjunction with some insta-stimulus to construction to drag the effect out over 12-18 months.
Bang on all round.
First home owners grant doubled to 14K, first builders grant upped to 21K, $1400 lumpsum for pensioners, boosts to carers plus boosts via FTB A and B.
So we sorted out that problem yesterday – anyone for world peace today?
Polly Bludger smarty pantses.
“World peace through the disciplined application of overwhelming force” I believe that is the slogan of the Strategic Air Command, I’ve always liked it.
Anyone watching Rudd and Swan’s press conference?
“Under the package:
– families will receive a Christmas bonus of $1000 per child
- single pensioners will get a $1400 payment
- pensioner couples will get $2100
The strategy includes five key measures, Mr Rudd said.
- $4.8 billion for an immediate down payment on long term pension reform;
- $3.9 billion in support payments for low and middle income families;
- $1.5 billion investment to help first home buyers buy a home;
- $187 million to create 56,000 new training places in 2008-09;
- Accelerate the implementation of the government’s three nation building funds and bring forward the commencement of investment in nation building projects to 2009.”
What idiot journalist asked the question “Does this pension backflip mean the Opposition was right all along?”
75 – No surprises there. That voice was David Spears. Sky Noos has been pushing that line all morning.
Can’t wait to see the Opposition get ripped in Question time.
Possum @ 71. PM Rudd most probably reads this blog. A lot of smart cookies in here, and one or two clever marsupials as well.
Why would the opposition get ripped in QT??
Especially when the Coalition have been arguing for increases to Pensions?
More like Labor going to get thumped too me!
Also there would be no money for all this to happen if we hadnt paid off Labor’s 96b debt and created billion dollar surpluses!
Let it be remembered that less than a year ago (last August in fact) the then-government argued against a $30 dollar a week raise when it was proposed by the Greens. Then they left office with inflation at 16-year high, and rising, leaving pensioners in the lurch.
@79 Because the Liberals wanted to only increase the aged pension. Labor wanted to increase all pensions in the 2009 budget which they have brought forward.
@80 The economy was already recovering after the late 80s/early 90s global recession (global recession? yes that’s right, global, as in, not caused by Labor’s 80s/90s economic policies, which were quite similar to Howard’s policies – Labor was the founder of economic rationalism in Australia and don’t ever forget that). Howard only managed to pay it off thanks to slashing health/education/infrastructure and divert it in to the budget instead which sat there doing nothing. Then came the mining boom.
Come off it Cuppa you don’t expect Glen to own up to that do you?
To the single OAP… not all of them
Of course the economic crisis gives Labor the excuse to push through a lot of stuff the Liberals would normally block and complain about.
The predicted global down turn may make it easier for Rudd on the ETS, the slowing doing some of the job for the planet. Be interesting to see what the estimated impact is.
Course I don’t GB. Though he does of course take credit for the surpluses, without mentioning that it was the mining boom that made them possible.
Indeed, and the Government has never said that they were opposed to pension increases, they wanted a complete approach to fixing the whole system. Unfortunately due to GLOBAL financial crisis, a shot in the arm is needed but so is long term reform – which the government is committed.
Seriously Glen if your argument for the Libs is whining about 10 year old debts it shows how baseless they are.
Different topic – The Greens polled 13% in this poll, their highest ever and the second highest from a third party. The Democrats got 17% at some stage.
The Rudd government’s move is a double edged sword. The opposition has learnt not to attack the government’s economic moves in the current economic climate as it puts voters offside, bipartisanship is the order of the day.
So the opposition can either support the government, a win for Rudd, or they can criticise the government, a win for Rudd.
Labor remains on 55-45 on 2pp, which they’ve been on or above since December 2006. Howard could only have had wet dreams over those polling figures!
The slowing economy argument is a fallacy regarding climate. If climate change was some obscure little occurrence that was going to happen way out in the future then maybe slowing economies would take some weight off it. But whilst the developed world economies are “slowing”, developing countries are still growing, and their carbon emissions are still growing, by significant amounts.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/10/14/newspoll-tuesday-turnbull-performance-edition/
Rudd continues to wipe the floor with the Lib/Nat opposition.
ABC blog has the usual Fibs supporters telling fibs saying Disability Support Pensioners and some cares won’t get nothin’ and now they will have to eat dog food too lol
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2008/10/14/2390519.htm
Here is the truth of the matter.
“Pension changes
The Federal Government said the pension bonus announced today will be a lump sum of $1400 to single pensioners and $2100 to pensioner couples. It applies to:
- Age Pensioners;
- Disability Support Pensioners;
- Carer Payment recipients;
- Wife and Widow B Pensioners; Partner, Widow and Bereavement Allowees;
- Veterans Affairs Service Pensioners;
- Veterans Income Support Supplement recipients;
- Veterans Affairs Gold Card holders eligible for Seniors Concession Allowance;
- Those of age pension age who receive Parenting Payment, Special Benefit, or Austudy; and
- Eligible Self Funded Retirees holding a Commonwealth Senior Health Card (CSHC)
- People who are receiving Carer Allowance will also receive $1,000 for each eligible person in their care.
The Government said it includes help for self-funded retirees who are eligible for a Commonwealth Senior Health Care Card.
Those who hold a Commonwealth Seniors Health Card or are Veterans Gold Card holders eligible for Seniors Concession Allowance will receive a payment of $1,400 if they are single or $2,100 to couples.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudd-pumps-in-10b/2008/10/14/1223749999940.html?page=2
The Opposition has been arguing for a pension increase because they fear that Labor is going to do the job properly with its across the boards pension review. The measures announced today are a high impact downpayment.
64 – and to rub salt into the wound Paul Krugman is awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics.
Why is Turnbull giving a press conference? He has nothing to say and looks like a twit.
Yeah, never mind the fact Rainmaker and Rainman were proposing to give them nothing themselves…
What’s new?
One word: ego
What’s he taking credit for now? Rudd stole the stimulus package off me, not Turnbull.
No its because we’ve been arguing for most if not all of these measures and it was our surplus that is paying for them not Labor’s!
Except the Coalition has not been arguing for an increase in the first home buyers grant, they have not be arguing for a bonus bonus to carers, they have not been arguing for a bonus to parents, they have not been arguing for an increase to infrastructure spending, they have not been arguing for a comprehensive review of the pension system.
On the other hand they voted down giving pensioners money last year and Malcolm Turnbull was arguing AGAINST giving them money this year.
David Spears:
Really? Let’s imagine a world where some irrelevent tool was leader of the Opposition – let’s call him Wilson.
If Wilson was leader, would the ALP have released the same package?
Yep – for all the reasons we went through here yesterday.
Wouldn’t it be nice to imagine a world where toolish insta-punditry wasn’t completely off with the fairies.
Go Oz!
I couldn’t stomach watching Allbull (just had me lunch and didn’t want to lose it) I saw him approach the microphone with his dog at his heels and that was enough for me.
Allbull will say “rudd stole my thunder” and his offsider can say “the dingo stole my baby” lol
Glen
Hate to tell you it called the budget surplus, the last budget was Swan’s. So hence it is Swan’s surplus.
Don’t like it? Tough.
Rudd in question time re raising pensions:
Labor, in 12 months, has done what the coalition failed to do in 12 years.
Glen,
You seem to be in violent agreement with the Government’s actions. It’s just you don’t like the messenger. Perhaps we could ask Rudd to put on an “Unca Howie gorilla mask” to soothe the battered Liberal egos.
Apparently, it makes you feel relevant again.
Are we enjoying QT? Rudd is enjoying every minute of it. He knows this package has totally trumped Turnbull.
Quite Dr Carr – it’s pretty funny all round.
Apologies to Bob1234 for moderation delays.
“Less responsible than the government of Cuba!” Take that, Hon Member for Rich People.
What was Julie Bishop’s question about Basel II on about? Or is it a new term she just learnt about?
Bizarre.
Probably just trying to throw in some economic buzzwords. Quite frankly she needs to after looking like a complete dill since being given the job.
She was obviously trying to bamboozle Swan, but he just knew enough to slide through.
Why’s Turnbull hogging all the questions to himself? The Government’s doing a good job by letting all the relevant ministers explain their own parts of the package instead of letting Rudd bore everyone for another hour.
Regarding the surplus… it’s actually the “nation’s surplus” – Tanner. Doesn’t that give everyone a warm and happy feeling.
With today’s package throwing pork widely – the whole front bench gets a Dorothy Dixer today!
Jenny Macklin is a happy woman today. She’s had to take the heat from the pensioner lobby, and now she can play Mother Christmas.
I can just imagine the dilemma that would have faced the Howard government had they been in office during the Global Financial Crisis. They would have been torn between urgently injecting money into the economy .. and waiting till an election year to do the porking.
Wow I can hear Rudd firing up at Turnbull from downstairs.
Turnbull has interjected against Rudd, who was saying, “If the Leader of the Opposition knows better…”, to which Turnbull replied “I do know better”.
Rudd then reeled off the list of institutions, regulatory authorities and so on that Turnbull was claiming to know better than.
What a wanker the Rainmaker is.
“and waiting till an election year to do the porking.”
Nothing stopping Rudd for making this an election year.
HAHAHA he can’t even control himself.
Need a DD trigger for that… and alcopops & the medicare levy are effectively thru
Yeah, I know it’s not going to happen – I was just trying to stir up discussion about an early election =P
Rudd Govt is smelling like roses. Politically, The Govt has covered all the bases. the Opp has no place to hide.
The Rainmaker!
I’m chuffed. Rudd in QT now using the term “Rainmaker” to describe Turnbull.
Yeah, I know. It is fun
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Tories seem to have gone all quiet. Perhaps the talking points email hasn’t arrived yet…
Julie Bishop should now be known by nickname of Lizzie
No 116
If Turnbull didn’t think he knew better, he would not be seeking the top job. I think that goes without saying for any leadership contender.
albertross
The email arrived it just has TBA on in.
“I’m chuffed. Rudd in QT now using the term “Rainmaker” to describe Turnbull.”
Really?
So not only has he gotten economic policy from this blog, but insults as well.
Rudd’s point was that Turnbull is claiming to know better than anyone how to run the economy and fix the current global problems. Better than the RBA, APRA, Treasury and all the rest.
I’ve always said it: Rainmaker’s downfall will be his monumental ego. He just can’t keep it down. He always goes too far and makes himself a laughing stock. At 26% PPM, it seems as if the public is underwhelmed already.
Turnbull’s $10m for ‘rainmakers’ with no proof
October 24, 2007
THE Environment Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, is giving a $10 million boost to research promoted by a rainmaking company part-owned by Rupert Murdoch’s nephew Matt Handbury, despite scientific experts hired by the Government stating the firm had provided “no convincing data” to support the technology.
No 114
More arrant nonsense. The coalition cut taxes five times in a row, only two of which occurred during an election year.
Plus your hypocrisy has been exposed. Only months ago, the Treasurer proclaimed that the inflation genie was out of the bottle. Now he’s spending 11 billion to stimulate the economy.
^ Didn’t we know that?
Turnbull knows better?
Didn’t do well with HIH? That would be one thing he would claim he didn’t know better maybe.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2006/s1576283.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2006/06/22/1668855.htm
Again, you seem to have missed this event called the “Global financial crisis”?
didn’t the recipients of the “rainmaker millions” then donate millions to Turnbull’s election campaign?
No 135
Turnbull has not been charged or convicted of any wrongdoing in relation to HIH.
No 136
That was quelled by a 700 billion bank guarantee and a 1% reduction in interest rates.
So which is it GP, inflation was never a problem or we shouldn’t be stimulating the economy at a time of Global financial crisis? While you’re at it can you list your vast economic qualifications, just so I know that you know what you are talking about?
139 – Oh, so the economic problems were solved and we didn’t need this stimulus. Now I am looking forward to those long list of economic degrees you must have.
One of the recommendations of the HIH Royal Commission was to introduce deposit guarantee legislation. Costello sat on this and did not implement it.
Turnbull just said (In the MPI) that the Coalition would have introduced it last year except the Member for Higgins though the timing was wrong becuase it may have reduced confidence in the banks.
Yet when the banks needed confidence Rainmaker says the Govt. is not going far enough.
Very very bizarre.
No 140
Please state your qualifications. Two can play at that game.
Piffle aside, I’m simply saying that if the inflation genie was out of the bottle, necessitating consecutive interest rate rises, a budget surplus in excess of $20 billion and tax increases, why is the government now injecting billions in pork into the economy – especially since it has stated many times that the economy is well insulated from the woes of other economies? I smell a lot of double standards and hypocrisy.
Generic Person wrote:
Year after year targeted at the better-off, at the expense of those well off…
The Age, 9 May 2005:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Ross-Gittins/Howards-battlers-may-not-be-that-loyal/2005/03/08/1110160824800.html
“Please state your qualifications. Two can play at that game.”
Unfortunately for you, Gary Bruce is not claiming to have predicted the end of the financial crisis and the measures which led to it. In fact, you’re statements are going against the grain of what other economists have said and in light of that, if you don’t have any expertise in the subject, they are meaningless.
No 142
At the time HIH collapsed, none of the major banks were in danger from collapsing. They still aren’t in danger now. It has everything to do with the prudential regulation Costello introduced in the aftermath of Asian financial crisis.
Fellow bludgers, if more than one of you was a little bemused when Julie Bishop asked about the Basle agreement: it’s about the capital adequacy requirements for banks (see fuller explanation below)
I’ll also post a link to the Bretton Woods agreement made in the last years of World War 2, setting up the world financial structures for the then future, including the World Bank and the IMF. She’s sure to raise that tomorrow. Honestly, what’s she trying to prove?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system
“Basle Accord: Agreement reached in 1988 by central-banking authorities from 12 countries including the U.S., to establish consistency among international capital standards. The resulting risk-based capital standards originally focused on default-risk exposure, but subsequent amendments have incorporated minimum capital standards for market-risk exposure. The landmark meeting was sponsored by the Bank for International Settlements located in Basle, Switzerland
Basle Agreement: An agreement signed by various countries stating that they agree with the 25 core principles of the Basle Committee of 1997. Aimed at strengthening financial institutions.
Basle Committee on Banking Supervision: A committee of banking supervisory authorities established by the central bank governors of the Group of Ten countries in 1975. It consists of senior representatives of banking supervisory authorities and central banks from Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Committee usually meets at the Bank for International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland, where its permanent Secretariat is located. The committee’s goal is to improve the strength of financial systems.”
So why not introduce the Royal Commission’s recommendation?
Gee, GP how unlucky that the voters chucked Howard and Costello out. And after all they did to help, too!
143 – I’m not the one making definitive statements re the economic descisions made, you are. So I can assume you don’t have the necessary knowledge to be making these statements? Thought not.
Ever, even for a moment, considered that economic conditions have changed GP and that one “economic nasty” was out trumped by another? Of course not. What a surprise.
No 144
Cuppa, trust your disingenuous tendencies to quote an article from 2005. That article obviously does not consider the 2006 and 2007 cuts (and nor for that matter the 2008 cuts – also orchestrated by Costello and copied by Rudd), and throughout that time, 80 percent of people did not pay more than 30 cents in the dollar in tax.
Considering that the top tax rate in 1996 cut in at just $50,001, I think everyone in Australia greatly benefited from Costello’s tax cuts, not just the better off.
GP
I’m an economist but thats beside the point. Glen Stevens of the Reserve Bank said so in his last monthly statement. He expressed concern at the dramatic change in monetary conditions. Do you suggest Rudd and Swan ignore him?
The Liberal talking point email has gone out. It says. “It was all our doing, the Govt. has stolen all our policies, plus they are spending OUR surplus”.
No 150
Where’s the economic nasty? No major local banks have collapsed and concerns over funding have been quelled by government guarantees. The stifling of economic growth was due to the RBA increasing rates a number of times over the last few years. They have now gone in reverse, adding hundreds to the pockets of Mr & Mrs Average voter.
Generic Person @ 60 -
As for David Hicks, he served 6 years for fighting with terrorists. Enough said.
Evidence please. The charges bought by the Americans allege he fought with the Taliban which was not then on the U.S. State Department or the Australian Government lists of terrorist organisations, nor has it ever been since. His imprisonment, torture and trial were war crimes, in the view of most jurist in the field, including former ADF Judge Advocate General Alastair Nicholson. Furthermore, in urging and assisting the U.S. to incarcerate and try Hicks before an illegal Military Commission Howard and his ministers committed a war crime, not only in international law, but also under the Australian Criminal Code.
The intelligence relied upon in Iraq was also the intelligence relayed to the United Nations. That it may have been fabricated or mistaken by the CIA is not the fault of Howard.
It is if he knew it was fabricated and the ‘Downer Street Memo’ proves that key American and British politicians at least were well aware that it was.
If Howard wasn’t aware what the Americans and British were doing it doesn’t absolve him. Even if Iraq had been a mile deep in WMDs that did not legitimise an attack on it. It is not illegal to possess them. If it was the U.S. and Russians would be the worst offenders.
The invasion was an unprovoked attack in violation of international law. Howard is no different that all the other war criminals that have preceded him, Hitler included, all of whom have trotted out any number of excuses to justify their criminality. The sooner he and his fellow travellers are consigned to a ICC War Crimes Tribunal cell the better.
Unfortunately, the current government doesn’t seem interested in acting, but as others have discovered, there is no statute of limitations on these crimes and future administrations, both here and elsewhere, may have a different view.
No 155
I refuse to respond to hysterical claims that Mr Howard is a war criminal. It is not conducive to reasonable debate.
Generic Person wrote:
How could a 2005 news story have considered 2006 events, let alone 2007?
Crystal ball?
I think it’s clear who’s playing silly buggers here. It’s the one crying foul because a 2005 news story “does not consider” 2006 and 2007 events.
You said the coalition cut taxes five times in a row. When I showed that on (at least) two of those five times the cuts favoured the better off with those less well getting not a bean, you respond with illogical nonsense and personal slights.
You can be embarrassed (you should be), but try to stay logical and leave out the character insults.
No 157
I did not pretend to think that a 2005 article should have a crystal ball. I’m simply saying that the article’s age obviously prevents it from considering latter (and earlier) tax cuts that have been equally applied to all income brackets.
And no, I’m not embarrassed. You’re the one playing with the truth.
Fact: lower income earners are paying MUCH lower taxes than they were in 1996.
Fact: 80 percent of voters pay a maximum of 30 cents in the dollar.
Fact: any tax cut (even those targeted at low income earners) will always result in higher income earners getting more simply because they pay more tax. It’s a mathematical certainty.
Now stop the jiggery-pokery and own up to the truth.
No 152
They didn’t ignore it. They guaranteed bank funding and all bank deposits.
Swan is on Agenda. Fair dinkum, if Spear’s asks him about Turnbull’s influence on this package my telly will not be safe.
The Age, 9 May 2005:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Ross-Gittins/Howards-battlers-may-not-be-that-loyal/2005/03/08/1110160824800.html
There is no room to spin there Generic Person. On two successive years, the better-off got tax cuts while those less well off got not a bean.
No 158
Correction: 80 percent of taxpayers, not voters.
No 161
LOL Cuppa. Keep going mate. Keep ignoring the fact that in 2001/2; 2003/4; 2006/7 & 2007/8; lower income earners did very well. That doesn’t even consider the increases in family payments which meant that many people were paying zero net tax.
I would also add that at the time our tax margins were very uncompetitive in comparison to other OECD countries.
GP
I think your geting your tax terms mixed up. There is the small amount of 10% GDP to add if you want to talk about maximum taxes people pay. You need to insert the word “income” before “tax” for your statement to be true. The governments total tax take is a little under 30% of GDP. Obviously many people pay more than 30% in tax when you combine all the direct tax, indirect tax and other fees and charges. Australia is about mid-field in OECD terms for tax take.
I have only just caught up with the news and I must say that Rudd and Swan have hada good day. The stimulus is well targetted in the short term both for efficiency (money in people’s pockets to start the economy moving again) and equity (pensioners and those in need focused on). The boost for first home buyers, combined with the drop in interest rates, is also welcome. It will be a brave Liberal who criticises that move.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/14/2390735.htm
A tax cut – the specific matter you raised, Generic Person, at number 133
means a tax cut.
As the story from <iThe Age unambiguously showed, on two years in a row the coalition gave tax cuts to the better-off. Those less well off got no tax cuts. Two budgets in a row the less well-off missed out on tax cuts from the coalition.
Now own up to the truth.
No 166
Cuppa your pathetic argument is like me proclaiming the main 2003 Iraq war was a great success, and continuing to do so without mentioning the egregious 5year aftermath.
family payments … comparison to other OECD countries (#163) … the Iraq War (167) … you were talking about [b]tax cuts[/b]. You specifically raised the matter of tax cuts in number 133.
Please quit strewing red herrings around (and the character slights) and own up to the truth that on two years in a row the less well-off got no tax cuts from the coalition while those better off did.
No 168
Oh, so it’s ok for Rudd to use such comparisons, but not for me. Hypocrite.
Er, I’m not Rudd. Dummy.
Generic Person @ 156 -
I refuse to respond to hysterical claims that Mr Howard is a war criminal. It is not conducive to reasonable debate.
If you wish to believe that the opinion of, among others,
– the Hon Alastair Nicholson AO RFD QC, Former Judge Advocate General of the ADF
– Gavan Griffith AO QC, former Solicitor-General of Australia
– Peter Vickery QC, Special Rapporteur, International Commission of Jurists
– Tim McCormack, Professor of International Humanitarian Law, University of
Melbourne
– Hilary Charlesworth, Professor of International Law and Human Rights, ANU
– Andrew Byrnes, Professor of International Law, Faculty of Law, UNSW
– Benjamin Ferencz, the last surviving chief prosecutor, Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunal
are hysterical, that is of course your right.
No 170
You’re an agent of Rudd.
Its a bit sad that all the Libs have left, is to look back at their glorious past. The Glorious leader – gone, his glorious treasurer all but gone, the not so glorious foreign minister gone, the leader of the Nats gone.
The inglorious leader, who vowed to lead them to the next election gone.
So much to mourn over. How sad.
Can Cuppa and GP break it off please.
No 171
Yes, they’re the typical pack of leftists that think any use of force is illegal.
“Yes, they’re the typical pack of leftists that think any use of force is illegal.”
There it is kids: a textbook example of ad hominem!
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/18/1090089035899.html
Howard is war criminal, says former colleague
Sydney Morning Herald, 19 July 2004
No 170
And further, Feral, I’d like to see their ridiculous claims held up in court.
Can everybody break it off, please. The question of John Howard’s war criminality is one of those arguments that has no chance of going anywhere.
Cuppa
yes the poor did not get a tax cut in those budget, they got things like baby bonus, an invrease in the FTA etc, increase in the low income rebates, they got additional allowance which means they did not need a tax cut
Australia had one of the lowest cut-in of top marginal income tax rates and highest margin, which make us not competitive in attracting skilled labour (which is the problems we are having) that is why the top marginal tax rate should have been increased much earlier than 2004 (both Labor and Liberal’s fault)
Ruawake
Turnbull did raise the gaurantees a fortnight ago, and was laughed at by Swann and most Labor supporter here, he was found to be correct and now Swann and Rudd are copying his policies, if they had acted earlier our superannuation savings might not have been as decimated, confidence in the system was crucial at that time.
We are only comparing competant economics people with Swann and Rudd at the moment, I never heard Howard and Costello say “the inflation genie” is out of the bottle, eventhrough inflation rate they inherited from Keating was higher. They just got on with running the economy, repaying debt, building up business confidence, so that we can get out of today’s crisis and we have money to pay for it. If Australia’s economy needed a push, ie post 9/11 they introduce the home buyers grant, kick starting the housing industry (which NSW tried to stop with their stamp duty). They do not say the earth had fallen in, or this is a crisis. They kept their cool, show confidence in Australia’s superior economy.
Rudd and Swann has a lot to learn
If anyone missed it Howard lost his seat at the last election. Only the second PM ever to suffer this.
Can we move on from the past and look to the future. Politics is about possible perceptions not longing for past heros, villians.
What I don’t understand about this stimulus package is why it is presumed that it will be spent. Given all the stories about slowing retail sales and hard times coming why won’t people hoard this bonus as well?
Oops wrong
That was a GST kinda thing.
If some have not realised, Rudd is PM and Swan is treasurer. Get used to it.
They may or may not, but the fact is Australians are very poor savers, particularly in recent years.
http://www.aph.gov.au/LIBRARY/pubs/RP/2007-08/08rp04_4.gif
With pensioners we are told they need more money just to survive. What makes people think they will just hoard it away?
Also, with Christmas coming just after the windfall you can bet many will spend it no matter what.
I agree with Cuppa on the hoarding. Pensioners tend to be on low incomes, so the odds of their hoarding (i.e. saving!) it are much lower than if the money were targeted at middle income groups. Same with those having children – they tend to spend it. These measures are well targetted from an economic viewpoint.
Rudd will “address the nation” tonight. He will be on at 6.30 on channel 10 at least.
Now how to spend my $1400 bucks?
Plasma TV – nah got one.
Computer – nah got a goody
Laptop – nah got one
Turkey – yep
Double Smoked Ham – yep
Beer – yep
I’m sure I can find something to spend the rest on.
“What I don’t understand about this stimulus package is why it is presumed that it will be spent.”
Because pensioners don’t save? You save for when you are a pensioner. When you’re a pensioner who apparently can’t afford jam and you get a bonus you go out and spend money on that jam.
Though if you think about it, and people actually DO save, then this could be seen as a $10 billion injection into the banks but cleverly disguised as something else. Or not.
SNIP: See 179 – The Management.
So people are saying that retail sales are not down? The reason why is not because people have less money, they are more uncertain.
This stimulus package will not ‘kick-start’ anything.
Older types tend to be more cautious and I reckon pensioners would hoard the increase if they could but, I gather their low incomes make it less likely they will be able to in comparison to some other groups. It would be more likely that many will use it to go and buy a few things they have been putting off due to lack.
Just a punctuation in this dreary discourse about who gave whom the biggest tax cut…
I think this supports my point about Doom And Gloom in the media being a big seller. The ASX has continued on rising, and has now risen 9% in two days. This is an unequivocally good story. From the SMH:
The “Black Fridays” and “Meltdown Monday”: stories have all been screaming banners, top of the page in the SMH for weeks. As soon as some good news comes along, it’s the fourth story down in the Business section. No photo of desperate-looking traders, or ruined investors looking on from the gallery. Not even the obligatory stock ticker picture. Just a small link and that’s it.
One wonders how much of this crisis has been because a lot of journos, having missed out earlier in the year, have wanted to make up for that in recent days by taking turns talking the world’s economies down as far as they can.
8 billion bucks lobbing in bank accounts on Dec 8th has got to kick start something?
Look, I’m not saying that $8bn being given to pensioners and low income is not good. I’m all for it. They should have got it anyway without needing a financial meltdown.
But as an economic measure, as it is being talked about in the press, it makes no sense. It is also amazing to especially see the right-wing press not at all concerned with the problems of Rudd’s bank bail-out.
Ruawake said
“eventhrough inflation rate they inherited from Keating was higher
Oops wrong”
You are not very good with facts aren’t you, like to make things up
Please see this link
http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/measures_of_cpi.html
It is from the reserve bank of Australia
Howard elected in Feb 1996 inflation rate 5.1%
Rudd elected Oct 2007 inflation rate 1.9%
The press in Australia cares about one thing right now – Malcolm Turnbull.
Why do you think my economic measure makes no sense?
Oops wrong Rudd elected Nov 2007.
If spending was slowing because people have less money I could understand why giving them more of it would have an effect. But this is a confidence question and I don’t see that a one-off has changed that.
It is extraordinary to see Albrechtsen cheer a bank prop-out without asking herself what conditions the government will need for it. They will now require a say on who they will lend to so as to make sure they are not ‘abusing’ the guarantee. This does not just stop at one measure. The government now has greater influence in running the banks whether it wants it or not.
Thomas Paine @ 192 -
Older types tend to be more cautious and I reckon pensioners would hoard the increase if they could but, I gather their low incomes make it less likely they will be able to in comparison to some other groups.
Given that we face very uncertain times, I’m not sure that pensioners will necessarily spend the money. Certainly, the two OAPs I know well enough to ask and get a straight answer from won’t be. Getting a bonus when times are good is one thing, but most OAPs are of generations that knew much, much harder times than anything we’ve seen to date and have always feared their return.
Apparently, as a DVA Gold Card holder I’m going to get some largess too. Frankly, I don’t need it, nor is there anything I particularly need/want. So do I leave it in the bank to help the liquidity problem, or do I do my bit to keep recession at bay by spending it frivolously?
I guess at the end of the day this is about shoring up deposits and easing their need to go and raise funding in the wholesale markets.
A decisive, proactive injection of 10 billion into the economy during a time of global crisis. There goes forever the Liberal line about a “do-nothing” “no-substance” government.
Yep Cuppa
No spin etc – gone
Pensioners eating Pal – gone
Turnbull bounce – gone
One term Govt. – gone
So I guess its back to fuelwatch and alcopops.
onya tintin and I dips me lid to julia g
this set of measures will ease not just the current pressures but offset petrol and grocery increases
a nice segue to open debate about our tax/welfare system
Sheesh, some people are NEVER happy.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/welfare-group-condemns-package-20081014-50hu.html
Ignore that bit, that was copied as the article had a graphic on today’s ASX with the above text.
one off checks to a targeted dmographic
sounds like howard all over again to me
yes…what about students…
Neglects students? Doesn’t it include more money for those on AusStudy?
Pensioners support the package:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/14/2390990.htm
And so do the real estate and retail sectors:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/14/2391028.htm?section=justin
When’s the last time a PM addressed the nation like that?
You have my deepest sympathy.
http://www.news.com.au/comments/0,23600,24494397-2,00.html
Young Libs out in force.
It won’t do them any good. Rudd has won this round game set and match. The next round of polls will show this.
Adam
Yep its a politics changing announcement. The Rabble just found out that they really are in Opposition.
i hope the day comes soon that the couples without kids , and that means straight ,gay, bi,whatever do start to have some impact on the political mind.
MY wife and i have paid more taxes than most in out 21 years together and because we have no children we have got nothing ever from whatever govt. is in power.
I have no prob paying for my nieces as such but when all these payments are given out you can’t help but think wtf. where is mine.
My wife cannot have children so we don’t and are happy with that and I can say we wealthier because of that. I can understand the rationale for handouts to people with families as I have seen with my many nephews and nieces the cost of having and raising children is high and continues for many years.
The Peeps
I was wondering when we would get a “what about me” post. Where would you be if the economy tanked – would you and your wife have a job, or feel secure?
Although you may not benefit directly, you will benefit.
Only so much can be done at any one time The Peeps and sure, I get that some people will feel left out (because well, they are)
This is a BIG spend, well targeted for the interest of the nation and those most in need. There’s only so much that can be done at any given time. I think it’s a good call
ps Understandably thats still not going to make you feel better but there ya go, thats how it is
ru, i am not complaining i was stating a fact that people who are not working families or penisioners {whom i understand you are one} never get anything.
And before you whinge i didn,t nor did anyone else give you your problem.
I wonder if anyone has considered what effect the election of a Democrat as President (the refutation of Bush and the Republican Party and neoconservatives ) should it happen, will have on the political feelings/attitudes of Australians.
Howard was able to tap into an apparently like-minded position with Bush and seemed stronger for it – while the good times lasted. And the people backed Howard more because of it, maybe.
I can imagine a similar effect with Rudd and Obama where they might seem in sync in the same way of Howard/Bush and thus promote a different political attitude among the populace. Do these effects occur? Do we get a drifting to the left in community attitude thus isolating the Liberal party even more? Just wondering.
As i have said i agree with what the govt. is doing ,i am stating a real life fact.
People without children get nothing ever.
The Peeps
I am on a DSP pension, this will be the first “lump sum” I have ever received. No you did not give me incurable blood cancer.
As an aside my carer pays an effective tax rate of 60% on her earnings. I bet you would be whining if you had to pay a similar rate of tax?
ru, my wife pays that rate about on her caring job.
Well, there’s a lot of people without children getting something on DEC 8, unfortunately your not one of them.
Go forth and breed buddy go on, you know you want to
(jokes) 
The Peeps
So if she cares for someone, she should be on the Carer Allowance and will get a lazy grand?
I understand what The Peeps is trying to say. My sister has no kids ( she can’t ), and this was a point she raised as well. She and her hubby miss out as well.
I understand why the government has targeted this package the way it ha. Some people are not going to like it, but those with kids, and pensioners will like it.
I have three teenage boys at school, ( 17, 15 , 13 ) who eat the equivalent of a horse each per day. So the relief from the govt is welcome.
Nope ru, She is a carer in her job but pays 60% and i am not going into our finacial detais on a public forum. as i have stated and please listen i am not against the spending i was just saying we get nothing.
If i was a gay i probably would have got more.
No 215
In the last decade, you’ve had your tax slashed so you and your wife have probably done fairly well.
sondeo
I agree, but what the “what about me” types seem to miss is that this measure will help them as well.
The Govt. has given money to the people who are most likely to spend it. This is to ensure that the likelyhood of a recession is reduced.
A recession will hit everyone – so this measure is good for everyone.
No 226
You had one for the country?
gp
tell me what the libs gave me as a bonus?
ru as one ” what about me “types this as absolutley no effect on us at all
No 231
Why do you need a bonus? More to the point, why do you expect one?
You don’t have dependent children, and nor do you, I gather, have any disability warranting income support. So, by definition, you have more spending capacity.
The Peeps
Good on you, you and your wife must have very secure jobs, I am happy for you.
ruawake, totally agree.
The Peeps..my wife said you can have the boys. I better warn you though, they don’t seem to want to cook, or wash their own clothes, or clean up their rooms, or mow the lawns, or get up on time for school.
But they do ……eat like machines, play loud music, sleep till all hours, take forever in the bathroom, use the phone 24 hours a day, want an endless supply of pocket money, think that everything is an emergency and has to happen now, want to driven anywhere and everywhere at anytime day or night.
We’ll give them to you for free. !
gp. yep we do not need anything .
Jesus i was just stating a fact at the start that whoever is govt. i Might be better off being a gay ,single,homeless person with learning diffuclities and a wort on my bum to get some bonus cash.
Maybe bob brown will look at it?
That’s the friggin point, your not, so you don’t.
The Peeps. Are you really sure you want Bob Brown to look at the “wort ” on your bum? It’s also possible he may decline.
The Peeps @ 236: ( I meant it in jest only. As I said I do understand.)
The thing is you have to do is contact the relevant government ministers personally, or even the opposition members. Make representations. The chances are slim that something will happen.
Maybe you can strip naked at a Melbourne Railway Station,? Fieldinf seemed to think it was a good idea.
HSO , bob would love it . My bum is a wonder of nature.
On second thought, The Peeps, I’m reminded of an amusing bumper sticker from many years ago demanding “Land rights for gay whales”. There’s your angle. You’d get something from any gov’t. for being a gay whale, for sure.
122.
All I want to know is which one of you works in Rudd’s office? “The Rain Maker”??? Not only did Rudd bring it up, but Albanese, and Gillard together called out the name to Rudd during QT, suggesting it was no accidental mention.
So come on fess up. Who’s the mole?
Even better, The Peeps, a gay whale with a bum a wonder of nature. I’m sure there’s at least an arts grant in it.
I remember a slogan i agreed with hso, ” Save the plankton, Kill the whale”.
Why to people only agree with what they see’
Plankton are living creatures so they have feelings as well
Either that, Grog, or the gov’t. is channeling Bushfire Bill.
From Frank’s post at 205
‘WA’s peak welfare group has slammed Kevin Rudd’s $10.4 billion economic stimulus plan, saying it neglects the unemployed, students and the homeless.’
ABC 7pm TV news in NSW took the same line, Had AAOSS and ex ACOSS heads on with similar comments. Ullman and newsreader were having a chat spreading doom and gloom and championing those poor unemployed. Amazing! if their hero Howard was still in power they’d be calling them no good dole bludgers.
Ullman trying his hardest to turn a positive for the Govt into a negative.
I suppose he was upset because he couldn’t use his Turnbull suck up from AM as his main political story.
I will apply for a gay plankton being eaten by a whale grant
I was wondering that earlier, Grog. He’s taken an economic package and a term for Turnbull both from this blog.
I must admit I have a familial connection to two ministerial advisors. But they would never leak confidential Govt. decisions.
Possum coined the term Malcolm “Rainmaker” Turnbull last year.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/20/mr-rainmaker/
But it’s recent use by BB has spread the meme to the Government. There’s probably some pleb of a media analyst hidden in the bowels of Parliament House dredging for ideas to use.
The Peeps, if you really think you would be better off being homeless, why don’t you become homeless? Nobody’s stopping you, you could easily arrange it if you wanted to. Obviously the answer is that you know perfectly well that you’d be worse off if you were homeless. You might (possibly) get more in cash grants from the government, but even if that’s so, why would anybody measure how well off they were by the amount they got in cash grants from the government? Why should only cash grants count? Most government expenditure is not in the form of cash grants to individuals (and a good thing too, incidentally). It goes on the provision of services, most of which benefit childless people as well as children, singles and couples, the straight and the gay, people with disabilities and those without … If you stop for a moment to broaden your mind beyond cash grants, you will see that you get a lot from the government. Do you use the government’s roads and bridges and its water and sewerage? Do you ever use the services of dentists, doctors, nurses, lawyers, architects, engineers, plumbers, electricians, builders, hairdressers, carpenters, or anybody else whose school and post-school education is subsidised to some extent by the government? Do you ever use the government’s public libraries, public parks, public swimming pools, or public transport? Even if you use none of these, they are all available to childless people. The government pays for the armed services, the courts, the police, the prisons, and the fire brigades–whatever value these have is for the benefit of all, including the childless.
But of course, apart from that, what have the Romans ever done for us?
Ullman is a sad case being of limited ability and not really that smart and, I can only assume has a place with the ABC because his work always seems to support the liberal party. Certainly if he were a ‘new’ person applying for a journalist job he wouldn’t obtain employment in many places. Many a person straight off the street could do as well.
Wot the ANiMaLS have been resurrected?
Congrats all round. Especially to that poor kid working in the PM’s office having to read all our musings.
ROFL
For those who don’t know the world of “media monitoring” I will give you some clues. For the electronic media there are hoards of mainly uni students sitting in front of computers lsitening to every word said on every radio and TV station.
They input key words, (Rudd, economy, etc) and levels of favourable – unfavourable. This is date and time stamped, so is the audio or video recording.
If you want to pay for a “rundown” of Gay Plankton they will send you an email everyday of every mention on radio or TV. If you want to pay more you can get a transcript, audio or video.
How do I know? I helped write the software, who paid? Nick Bolkus – see Senate Hansard on electronic media ads for election campaigns.
true ruawake but media monitoring doesn’t generally cover blogs.
J-D, I wouldn’t get too excited about The Peeps musings, hence the subsequent silliness about various “qualifications” for guvmint money. I think he’s up to being a gay plankton being threatened by a whale. I think if he’s a gay plankton he should certainly be demanding something, possibly less CO2 in the atmosphere, as that tends to be absorbed by the colder waters at both poles and bugger up (technical term) their capacity to form exoskeltons, tends to cause other abnormalties, and generally, therefore, totally screw up the whole food chain in the sea.
Currency Lad thinks Turnbull’s running the country. Have to agree
http://thenewcurrencylad.blogspot.com/
Are you sure? Blogs are easy peasy. RSS links to Master Ship. Money for Jam.
ruawake, can the software cover blogs?
Ru
Are you sure? Blogs are easy peasy. RSS links to Master Ship. Money for Jam
Nooooooooooo
just kidding
ps ran into your app last year a few times
Whoooa, ruawake.
Ruawake – I’m thinking of “Media Monitors” which the Govenrment gets – all MSM.
I hope GP is aware that The Currency Lad is in fact a satirical blog?
Todays package is nearly an excellent measure, except the housing package which is plain stupid. Grants will do very little, they instead have caused a housing boom in recent years and if people cannot get any credit from lending institutions than the grants will be useless. To help stimulate the housing sector or make it fairer it would have been better for the government to build low cost homes or increase public housing or provide low rental accommodation in areas neglected or where house prices or rental prices price people out of the market. I for once agree with Saul Esalke on the 7.30 report this part of it has not been thought out at all.
The rest of package is good as it gives money to people who will spend it and who need it. Nonetheless, hate to say it – this will not be enough, because the amount of credit taken from an economy is far in excess of what the government will put into it.
And the government may find it hard to borrow money to straighten the ship further in the months ahead. The depressed faces on Rudd and Swan sum it up we are heading into rough and worrying times.
Am inclined to agree with you MM.
The real worrying thing is that they felt the need to splurge $10b. You have to wonder what kind of forecasts the Treasury is getting.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/comments/feed/
This link sends all comments from PB somewhere.
Grog, Media Monitors is the last man standing. There used to be 3, Media Monitors, Rehame (Maher spelt backwards) and Crolls’ Monitoring Australia.
MM and Crolls’ combined with my mate Johnny Croll becoming GM of MM. If you think that anything said on any form of media escapes their beady eyes? Nope.
So now every mention of Rainmaker will be sucked into some whole for analysis.
Basically Turnbull gave a grant of $10m for a supposed technology pretty close to being nothing more than magic.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2095134.htm
ruawake @ 257
Will ya shut up!
wtf do you think I’m doing here right now?
Grog debt is everywhere in this country at the moment and for anyone reading this i suggest one thing try to pay your debts of quickly and also do not take out a housing loan if you can get it now, because house prices i think will fall and significantly.
No I don’t, and so I’d like to give big “Sarah Palin shout-out” to all those tuning in.
I’m surprised that people here don’t think that politicians read blogs like this one. Doctors read medical blogs, engineers read engineering blogs and florists read floral blogs. Politicians are more obsessed with opinion than any other group.
I often get asked by political advisers etc what the feeling here is on some issue.
As if they don’t already know.
As illustrated during the WA State Election where several ALP Campaign Managers and candidates recognised me from my posts on PollBludger
/waves hello to to Reece Whitby and his Campaign Manager, and the Member for West Swan
Diogenes, I’m not surprised – I am sure they do; but the Rain Maker mention just struck me as rather a bit too coincidental given its relative out-of-dateness but the recent revivial on this blog.
I see from the 7:30 Report that Rudd will be speaking at the Press Club tomorrow
Rudd channeling some of this thinking.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/13/global-economic-crisis-li_n_134393.html
Ru
media monitoring took on a distinct ahem,”tone” in the lead up to the last fed election.
the ability to drill down and collate comments,allows for profiling and other analysis.
that can “somewhat” limit free speech. FMPOV
No way, I’m gonna have to lift the standards of my posts.
I bet this poor begger could do with a bit of a leg up coming on to Christmas.
http://www.news.com.au/comments/0,23600,24494397-2,00.html
I have to chuckle sometimes when I read comments from people who are upset that they have missed out on one handout or another. Howard & Co haver a lot to answer for by making this “handout mentality” a part of the accepted way of life in this country.
My partner & myself brought up four children, put two so far through University and paid off two houses and only ever on a single household income. We never got any home grants, baby bonuses and most of the other benefits that people scream out for nowadays.
But compared with this poster, if what they said is correct, then we were far better off.
Nouriel Roubini has picked 14 of the last 3 crisis.
Well if a heap of media releases start containing stacks of typos we’ll know they’re really taking pollbludger advice to heart.
Do I hear the ghost of Lord Keynes blowing pipe-smoke into the face of the ghost of Milton Friedman?
Yes, advisers and staff of politicians do read this blog. As for the journos, it’s compulsory reading. And let’s say a nice welcome to a couple of our favourites, Mark Latham and The Dessicated Coconut himself.
If there’s an article on a MSM blog, say on a nurses pay rise, the Health Department downloads all the comments and reads them. They collate them to judge public opinion and pick out the talking points. They have to do this because the media will often use the blog comments for follow-up stories.
Blair trumps Marr:
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/completely_unfair_and_outrageous/#commentsmore?
Possum,
Reminds me of someone who used to post here!
One can only hope. Though I think it was Friedman (from memory of long past economics tutorials) who showed that one-off payments were spent rather than saved.
Ah Possum – sounds like the Malcolm McKerras of economics.
Why are all the economists called Milton?
Diogenes,
It’s so obvious. Journalists like Shanahan and Milne constantly plunder PB for their stories. We see our comments constantly plagiariesed and used. It’s a disgrace I tell you, a disgrace. Of course they completely turn it around to say the opposite. But, I know we are the source of all their material.
Have you read “I want to be free” by Milton Shulman?
Possum, so Nouriel Roubini is doing really well, except he’s not called Milton?
Unfotunately, I must say, that we are more entertaining, more informed and better opinionated than both Shana and Milne.
So that means Rudd actually did steal my economic plan?
Why all economists are called Milton.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8aERAe1wmk
G. P. @ 286. Quality posting.
Centre
‘more informed and better opinionated than both Shana and Milne’
but then again so is a sea slug
Turnbull straddles the fence:
So no quibbles, he just wants to mention that he thinks it might stop interest rates from coming down….
Great arguemnt Malcolm. Impossible to be wrong – who’s to say rates wouldn’t come down more. If they come down 0.25% he can argue it would’ve been 0.5% etc etc.
And it takes a lot of hide for the man in charge of water policy under Howard to wonder if Treasury advice has been taken on a $10b outlay…
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=646380
Let’s be kind, and say he’s borrowing it
Yes gus. It must have been so frustrating for those blokes. Not being able to change a single vote. Actually Milne won votes for Rudd with his strip club breaking story lol.
That’s a sacrifice I can make for the good of this nation.
Centre
catching the masters of the universe telling pork pies was fun
though if the unthinkable had happened and howard won,I doubt the internet would be as open.
The best friend the ALP ever had!
The difference between Australia and the US:
Here Rudd pumps $10b into the economy; in the US, Bush needs to spend $250b on equity in the top 9 US Banks, just to keep them going.
Imagine if Rudd had fronted up this morning and announce the Govt was buying a major stake in Westpac, ANZ, NAB and CBA.
We ARE light years away.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/13/AR2008101300184.html?nav=rss_business
If Howard had won you would find the tax man checking out your records and the AFP checking your relationships and ancestry. The Howard government was never keen to tolerate criticism.
Dario, are you Glen Milne and trying to suck up to the new long term regime?
@107 ‘Apologies to Bob1234 for moderation delays.’
Once my comments were unmoderated they just blended in to the background rather than being able to be read as a reply. Oh well, thanks anyway.
Hahaha I’ve certainly been as drunk as Milne in the past
The over reaching of the born to rule and Paris the Rainmaker has just come crashing down on them in a wave of irrelevance.
Overseas markets expecting a 50 points interest rate cut next month.
And this is the reason why Rudd included the 1st home owners grant provisions in the package.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a2w4GsiaGA2M&
refer=australia
The construction industry has been hit particularly hard in both NSW & QLD and this should get things moving again.
TP
tax and the cops –pfffft
there are much worse
Well spotted, scorpio.
@311
Not that I’m against the move, but housing markets always do that. They do through a boom, then a lull. It’s cyclical. Seven months isn’t that long…
Not sure if Rudd likes it all that much either.
Gus the internet is going to put pollies in their place. Fantastic for democracy.
The days of Liberal Party deceit are limited. Take the increased benefits for pensions for eg.? After 12 years of stripping away benefits, the Fibs had to pretend they care for pensioners, before Rudd increased benefits, not to be exposed of their true ideologies and lose votes.
The internet can expose their deceit.
At least he’s opening up FOI
Two sorts of criticism, Grog. One where you feel absolutely crapulous about yourself because you feel you are inadequate and you are told as much, other where someone can help you put a finger on somewhere that needs scratching. Different.
Yeah that would have been great had Howard won?
Work Choices as we head towards a near recession!
Believe me, bugger all for pensioners!
Amercanisation of our health system!
Would need to have sucked up to Obama big time! Although he was bloody good at sucking up lol.
Has he?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/sunshine-solution-not-fast-enough/2008/10/10/1223145635643.html
Mayo at 200…
‘Apparently, as a DVA Gold Card holder I’m going to get some largess too. Frankly, I don’t need it, nor is there anything I particularly need/want. So do I leave it in the bank to help the liquidity problem, or do I do my bit to keep recession at bay by spending it frivolously?’
I’ve put a lot of hard thought into this, and decided that the best thing you can do is send the lot to me.
I haven’t had much practice at frivolous spending, but for the good of the country I’m willing to give it a whirl.
No…don’t thank me….
No 316
Just like I can expose the fact that Labor has opposed every single economic reform during the Howard years. The very same economic reform they claim to represent.
Because many economists (and scientists) are Jewish and Milton is a popular Jewish name, for reasons I don’t know (like Irving, Morris, etc).
In this case, that’s the idea. We want the pensioners erc to go out and spend this money, not hide it under their beds, so that the economy is kept afloat. If everyone stops spending, we will have a depression.
322
that is a milney and you know it
What economic reform GP?
A regressive tax! Do you call that economic reform lol.
That’s because Howard’s “reforms” were all EVIL, whereas Rudd’s reforms are all GOOD. Just remember – Howard Evil, Rudd Good, and you can’t go wrong.
Btw GP, we can thank that fat elephant with the stars and stripes next to your name for this global crisis. Stick it up ‘em Obama. Repugs never to be voted back in again ever!
Adam – it’s a line form Yes Minister.
No 325
The petrol excise is a regressive tax, but calls to reduce it are met with crys of economic irresponsibility. Hyprocrite, Centre.
typo: hypocrite.
Nevertheless, it’s a real question, and I gave the correct answer.
Pensioners…..lump sums….pokies……..really thought Tatts and Tabcorp shares would have soared today
No 326
Rudd thinks reform means increasing existing taxes.
Adam,
These will become known as the “George Best” payments.
Most of it will be spent on wine, women and song. The rest will be completely wasted.
It’s election morning in Canada, and apparently no-one is going to win.
Oh, another typo: cries not crys.
GP reducing the excise is of absolutely no benefit to anybody. Oh, except the rich oil companies. And maybe the silly populism (that not even Talcum or Coconut really support) for your mob.
Oh Gawd, Tony Jones is now attempting to “gotcha” Lindsay Tanner on Lateline. I’m getting really sick of this garbage as supposed examination of real issues. Absolute rubbish from someone’s ABC.
Adam
I still stand by harper getting rolled and dion forming minority gvt
oh and queen elizabeth is going to come close to getting elected
whiffs of 93 Ive been told
Don’t tell me he’s asking Tanner what newspapers he reads?
No 337
Same argument is applicable if arguing to reduce or abolish the GST. Companies make larger profits.
Your argument is dumb. The GST replaced several ridiculous federal and state taxes and is broadly-based.
There’s speculation that the parties will finish up with much the same results as they got last time, except that the BQ will drive the Tories out of Quebec. Then they will switch sides and support a Lib+NDP coalition. But Canadian politics are so complicated they make my brain hurt.
No 338
HSO, the ABC did it just as much to the Coalition when it was in government. Indeed, journalists do it all the time and politicians have been ducking and weaving ever since. You just don’t like it because Labor is in the box seat.
Poor Turnbull and his cheersquad like GP. He was already a mile behind and along comes Rudd and blows him out of the water. Even the pensioners dont have to strip or eat dog food anymore
No 344
Wow, he spent the surplus. How explosive. More like…the inflation genie is now…really…out of the bottle.
Adam
Im sure you knew , but in any case ‘queen elizabeth’ is elizabeth may, leader of the canadian greens.
GP , I don’t like it because it is poor , so-called journalism. I have no problem with journalists, without fear or favour, taking apart the inner workings of party’s, their politics, and specifically their policies. What I find objectionable, is the insertion of the interviewer as main player. Tony Jones being a primary culprit, IMV.
No 347
Rubbish HSO. If Jones was playing these games with Howard, you’d be rejoicing in a fit of hubris.
Harry
tony j was and is arguably the most unbiased abc journo going around.
perhaps “without fear or favour” is his motto.
Grog @ 299:
Classic rainmaking. The scammer always claims to have insider knowledge and, most importantly, influence. So, when some event happens, if it is “good” (e.g. increased sales, or an interest rate reduction) the scammer boasts it is better than it would have been, or if it is “bad” (e.g. a new competitive product or a tax hike by the government), the scammer claims it is not as bad as it might have been but for their intercession. The trick is to get the mug to believe you have the influence you claim to have. It helps if, like Turnbull, you have both worked for a Kerry Packer and betrayed a Kerry Packer: in other words you have walked both sides of the appropriate street.
The scammer starts out with an audacious ambit claim for compensation, say 10% of the gross, and at the slightest hesitation on the part of the mug, reduces this to, say, 5%. More hesitation and the commission slips to 5% of the nett, then 2%. This is in return for non-specified services nominally beneficial to the mug, but achieved via mechanisms which are impossible to verify (e.g. makng it rain, or influencing the Big Banks on interest rates). Meanwhile, the mug thinks he has bargained the scammer down from 10% of the gross to 2% of the nett, and so feels pretty good about his negotiating skills. This keeps the mug interested. But, in reality, the scammer came to the table with nothing, so if he leaves with more than the zero he started out with it is the scammer who has outwitted the mug, not the other way around (although that is not the way the mug sees it). I’ve had this tried on me (unsuccessfully) twice in my business life and have seen it succesfully implemented several times with colleagues and friends. There’s no talking them out of it once they think they’ve turned the tables and hoodwinked the scammer.
Turnbull’s claiming of credit for “a higher than expected interest rate drop by the banks” was a classic Rainmaker scam. Grog’s predicted example is another.
A good way for the scammer to make certain he will collect from at least some mugs is to bet on every horse in the race or, more accurately, to advise others/i> to lay bets covering every horse in the race when taken together. The ones that lay losing bets go away, never to be seen again. The winners (in reality just fluke winners) begin to think the scammer is a genius. The longer this goes on the more the pool of mugs diminishes, but the more the confidence in the scammer’s abilities on the part of the surviving mugs increases, allowing higher fees to be charged by the scammer covering his losses on the mugs who drop out.
The key element is not the end result in itself (be it the result of a horse race, a football match or, in Turnbull’s case, an RBA decision), it’s the fees (or, in Turnbull’s case, the votes) the scammer picks up along the way in return for his (often) non-existent influence or skills. By the time the mug realises he has been scammed, he has also been cleaned out, and the scammer has moved on to the next town (or the next election).
Generic Person, no I would not. There are some people such as me, though while partial to particular economic and social outcomes, that could be described as lefty types, or alternatively maligned by the likes of Bolt supporters as the spawn of Satan, nevertheless prefer that public media examination of what everyone is up to is exposed for us all to see. Never going to happen, of course.
BB – and every good scam artist has a shill to help him out… gee I wonder who is playing that role {cough} Shanahan {cough}
So Elizabeth May or May Not get elected? We’ll find out tomorrow.
Also tomorrow: what else will the wily Kevster pull out of his magic hat? Will Lord Turnbull finally explode with frustration that he is not PM yet? Will Julie Bishop’s hair reveal itself to be a creature from the planet Zarquon?
Stay tuned…
Adam in Canberra, I’m predicting Julie Bishop’s hairdresser will implode at the same time Nick Minchin decides he’s really only comfortable being a woman.
harry
its definitely a full moon tonight.
HSO,
Tears of laughter.
Shame Harry.
Night Bludgers.
Sorry G.P. Really have to sign off for tonight. Lots to do tomorrow. No doubt I can really, really, really……bore you?…annoy you?……have a joke with you about the absurdity of it all?
Lindsay Tanner does a better job of explaining things than Swan which, is not to criticise Swan’s ability as Treasurer. It is important in these times where things can be a little complex and many faceted that it be explained clearly and confidently to the public. They should and probably will use Tanner as much as possible.
Tanner is more competent than Swan. End of story.
Pretty pessimistic outlook for the world, a mild recession if we are lucky.
I love Chinese, even though they only come up to my knees…
I like Chinese – monty python
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=04QoA44c23A
Yesterday’s West Australian carried polling on federal voting intention from the same 400-sample survey that produced yesterday’s state poll, showing the Coalition leading 51-49. Andrew Probyn reports:
Obviously they know very little about Turnbull or that he appears to be disliked and dismissed by the business community.
Funny though. Many WA arses depend on China and their Chinese speaking PM. They might end up having to pray that Rudd can cuts some special trade deals with China.
Wonder if the state Liberals will honour their spending deal with the Nats?
Interesting to compare the commentary and actions here with the USA
A Jobless Rescue?
James Ridgeway
http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/columns/2008/10/bailout-no-job-creation-jobless-rescue.html
For those who missed it, here is Kevin Rudd’s Address To The Nation re Yesterday’s Announcement.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/10/14/2391076.htm
“Test” Watch
More “tests” from Dennis Shanahan.
Interesting how a government which, not long ago, was supposed to have taken ownership of the economy and was alleged to be a fully-fledged government in its own right with all the rights and responsibilities attached thereto, is still having to endure Dennis’s “tests” (La Stupenda is the same).
Media really has gotten itself a negative mindset when it comes to anything non Howard/Liberal not withstanding Howard is long gone at the replacement barely competent. It seems that no matter what the issue media will seek to protrait the most negative angle and seek to find the negative angle of positve things.
Everything is always a criticism. And true to form when the Government comes out with a stimulous package most of the business community says is right and necessary and timely we instead get the media looking for negative angles. As though the country didn’t need to the media to come to the part to help sure up some confidence given the global news. Seems the government is working for Australia and the media along with Turnbull working against Australia.
Turnbull was particularly stupid in his comments that the Government’s stimulus package might stop further interest rate cuts and thus ‘hurt’ mortgage holders, the ABC dutifully attended to its role in helping Turnbull and the Liberal party on this.
Now either Turnbull is an imbocile or is being dishonest as the dogs balls he cant see or deliberately misses is that if Australia needs a package of this nature to try and balance out the effects of global slowing growth, to stop us drifting in into a recession then interest rates are hardly going to be the problem. People without jobs on the streets wont care what the rates are. Mortgagees wont be worring about rates when one partner loses their job.
Turnbull’s logic seems to be a recession is good because it will give us low interest rates and thus a depression even better because that will give the remaing half a dozen mortgagees a very low rate.
I am not surprised that Turnbull was a failure at Goldmen Saxs and was totally ignorant on FAI given his concern on mortgage rates in a global economy slipping into recession. It is instructive on how poor our media is when they let this tripe from Turnbull pass and instead support it, namely because he is the Liberal party.
What are these right wing media outlets going to do when the Democrats win in the USA and Labor has as close and fruitful relationship with them. Oh the anguish, all those non neo-conservative governments will be defiling the Howard dream.
Sigh, Paul Kelly.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24497984-12250,00.html
Apparently Rudd “needed” this economic crisis to “save his political credentials and reputation”. Now that’s a claim one can make about Gordon Brown, but unlike Gordon Brown, Rudd did not need “saving”.
The right-wing media seems hell-bent on giving off this image that people somehow hate Rudd even though all the polls say the exact opposite.
55-45. Nuff said.
Swan was asked a very inappropriate question on ABC radio this morning, with Lyndal Curtis trying to maximise the sentiment of panic in the community (what will happen to inflation):
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2391374.htm
He quite rightly dodged it; this is the RBA’s job. Ask Glen Stevens, Lyndal.
I think Swan has performed pretty well lately, Rudd even more so. Of course, I agree with others that Lindsay Tanner is the best economist in parliament and he has been for some time.
Noting Oz’s link to Paul Kelly’s column, the hypocricy is glaring. I suppose it was perfectly legitimate for conservative parties to benefit from the fallout of 9/11 and terror alerts, but centrist/progressive parties aren’t allowed to benefit from the fact that they can manage economic problems better? Does Kelly think we would have done better if “the Drunken Sailor” was still at the wheel in Canberra? ROTFL.
This whole episode has exposed how weak on economic theory all the conservative parties (except Sarkozy) are these days. Adam had this nailed with his hypothesis in the “Rocking All Over the World” thread. There are times when small government is the wrong answer, and they are too ideologically driven to admit it. The really silly part is that they then attack everyone else for being ideologues!
I guess we’ll see in the first test later today – Canada.
Latest negative/scaremongering (ABC style) is that the budget will now be in deficit by the grand sum of $10bil
“Details of stimulus package come under fire”
“NAB economists predict the economy will be in deficit by about $10 billion next financial year.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2391242.htm?section=justin
and at number 1 on ABC Online’s Top Story list
“Swan won’t speculate on Budget deficit ”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2391374.htm
Oz
The exits polls will hopefully tell us if the Carr Hypothesis is correct. A swing to the LIberals from Harper is indirect evidence but a left/centrist swing accompanied by voters saying the economy was the reason for shifting their vote would be a clincher.
Unfortunately we won’t know the results until the last polls close in an hour and a half.
I think there will be a swing away from the Conservatives, distributed amongst the other parties but because of the FPP system I don’t think it will have that big an effect.
Still, I’m hoping for an upset. Or maybe a left coalition.
If any gets any preliminary results or exit polls, post them up!
Gawd help us, now we are being told The Rodent (closely followed by Allbull) is the preferred President of the USA (LOL) and we aussies all loooove Miss Sarah.
That’s perseverence,they knew if they tried hard enough they’d get a poll with Allbull in front of Kev.
“Choosing from a list of six prominent Australians – including former prime ministers John Howard and Paul Keating, opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and his deputy Julia Gillard, and former Labor leader Mark Latham – Mr Howard was voted the best candidate for US president, winning half of the vote.
Mr Turnbull was runner up with nearly 20 per cent, while Mr Keating won 16 per cent of the vote, beating Mr Rudd who won just 10 per cent.
“http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24494777-5005941,00.html
wtf???
They probably voted to have Johnny US pres so we could get him out of the country
says 50% admitted being Lib voters, no shame some people lol
“According to a Daily Telegraph poll”
Enough said?
Ha Harper will gain seats in BC and Ontario and probably boost his hold on Parliament to 136 seats from 124 but he wont win a majority.
May has no shot of Winning her riding against popular Conservative Minister Peter McKay.
Dion will quit after losing this one.
It turns out that we’re in for a long wait because Canadian law forbids any exit polling being announced until everyone has voted. What kind of a country do they live in?
Dion’s on record saying he won’t resign if he loses so the only way he’d go is if there was a party push to remove him.
“What kind of a country do they live in?”
A country that is spread over 4 and 1/2 hours worth of timezones? I agree it’s a bit pedantic, but I can see where they’re coming from. If results start coming in 3 or 4 hours before polls have closed that could possibly have an influence on the election.
Though I think it’s a bit rich that they’ll go to the effort of embargoing results in an effort to improve democracy but have one of the most pathetic and unrepresentative parliamentary systems in the world.
Which they would do Oz.
Rudd to address National Press Club shortly
Can we please discuss Canada here.
Poll Bludger comments regular and frequent Greens candidate Ben Raue has started a psephological blog, and a very productive one at that.
Vera 375
NAB have got cheeck saying that. It is a pure guess, with treasury not even having done the modelling yet. The real answer is that nobody knows, because it depends on whether the global economy tanks, or just the US, and the whole purpose of the current spending is to change the outcome from current trends. Plus its coming from a bank clever enough to blow $4B on various failed US business purchases, and still said to hold over $20B of potentially devalued (90%) CDSs. Ridiculous.
Turns out Deidre Willmott won’t be taking Chris Ellison’s Senate seat after all. From yesterday’s West:
Pretty boring speech, I must say.
He’s saying all the necessary things but it seems to be a summary of the past few weeks rather than anything new. Fairly dry.
calm and in control
wonder if the poision dwarf will ask a question
He did say something “exciting” earlier on. He called “extreme capitalism” a “house of cards”. I know it’s vogue to be anti-capitalism these days but he followed it up by saying “So how are we going to respond?”. Unfortunately he never answered his own question and talked about APRA etc.
Costello wants to save us!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24500257-5006301,00.html
Someone needs to tell him he is in Opposition now.
Nice joke, Kevin.
Care to share?
I can’t even remember it now, haha. It was a response to some question. What he said just now got quite a few laughs.
Journo: “I wonder if you could share, in the privacy of this room, what the conversations between you, Mr. Swan and Mr. Tanner have been like?”
Rudd: “Oh something along the lines of.. “Oh gosh, Wayne!” “Dash it, Lindsay!”.
Ruddie is showing no understanding of the problem facing us, he keep wanting to blame “extreme capitalism” for the mess.
He has not even found out why it is happening
In the US, it is happening because the government want higher home ownership, and set up companies (Fannie and Freddie) to package mortgage for investors to buy… it is a government created housing bubble, which just burst. The US government aided it by demanding banks offer sub-prime loan to people who cannot afford it (non recourse loans)
The only people you can blame is stupid bankers for investing in these loans, people who cannot afford loans, but choose to borrow. But the blame rest with the government’s policy and lack of governing a problem created by them
Australia had not been hit because we had competant governments (Keating and Howard) and good regulation So what does our Mr Rudd do, he increases the first home allowance (which can create the bubble in Australia) and blame the mess on the wrong people.
Can someone tell Rudd that people wanting their own home are not extreme capitalism
Dovif please stop trying to push the line that the entire blame for the GLOBAL finanancial collapse is due to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
My lecturer used to tell me, how do you create a recession?
His answer was that tell everyone, there is a recession coming, and people will stop spending and thus the recession will be created
If you tell the people that things are bad outside, but the Australian economy is strong, our RBA can lower rate to re-start the economy, I am sitting on $20 Billion which will help restart the economy, we have no government debt and the government can borrow in times of needs …… that makes our economy one of the best in the world
If he said that …. perhaps we would not go into a recession
What Rudd seem to be saying is that …. it is not my fault if it get bad …. the show of a little confidence in Australia would help
dovif, the main reason for the collapse is the unregulated credit default swaps……
TONY JONES: The extraordinary thing is that this completely unregulated credit default swap market appears to have developed, evolved in to something that globally is worth $US55 trillion.
It’s beyond governments to bail out that kind of money so what happens next?
WILL HUTTON: Well, it is incredible. I mean, I’m a … I might be borrowing money in London. The bank might securitise my mortgage payments and might then take out an insurance policy which is sold to a hedge fund in Dubai.
And then the hedge fund in Dubai might sell it on to Macquarie Bank in Australia who might sell it on to some money mutual fund in Thailand. It’s an incredible system.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2008/s2390857.htm
Very sober reading.
dovif
A non recourse loan is one where the borrower is not liable for any debt if they default. It is backed purely by the asset. ie the home. Nothing to do with loans to people who cannot afford to repay.
That is the big difference between home loans in the USA and here.
Oz read my post
It is the US government fault, they set up the entity, which writes the mortgage and ask people to invest in them, they set up legislations which requires lending to minorities …… now that people are’t investing in these mortgage and no one are supplying any finance in the financing section. and this mess is spread around the world.
It is completely the fault of the US government
ruawake
I agree completely, and it is the same in Europe and Australia, but it is the US govenment’s policy to require these loans, which created this mess
dovif 400
You have posted that stuff before and I have provided links to economics blogs that soundly refute it. So why do you post it again?
The US CRA act has been in existence since 1977 and didn’t cause the current crisis. It was unregulated trading in credit derivatives that caused the current mess. To paraphrase a former US president “Its the financiers, stupid”.
Likewise here as in the US, your claim is false. Yes Keating and Howard created reasonable bank regulation here. But there was still a property bubble under Howard, thanks to the latters too generous tax deductions for investment property. That bubble has already burst in Sydney and maybe Perth. Meanwhile the rate of home ownership has actually gone down, with many baby-boomers owning investment roperties, while any members of generation Y are frozen out of the market. Its absurd to blame Rudd for that.
Obviously there are a lot of people with partisan political interests here, such as yourself beign strongly pro-liberal and anti-labor (are youa staffer). However, when you post to plug “your side” try to do so in a more factually correct manner than Andrew Robb, Jackie Kelly and their kin. Its one thing to “spin” and selectively quote the facts that suit your arguments. Its quite another to make false claims. They simply degrade the credibility of the claimant.
I did read your post. However your post is not a very apt analysis of the financial crisis. At best it could explain the housing collapse in the US. It cannot explain how that spread throughout the whole US financial system and throughout the whole world.
That is not a result of Freddie and Fannie. As Kevin Rudd put it, it’s a result of systemic problems inherent within the unregulated markets around the world, and as we found out on Lateline last night, the credit default swap market.
sondeo
the underlying assets are the mortgages which had been securitised …. one of the reason that these are securitised is because normal investors would not touch some of the non-recourse loans, however once we start selling 1000 of these loans together, people do not know what these loans are
When people start defaulting on the loans in the US, the financial sector cannot figure out how much had been loss and who owns these loans
Thus we are here today
Oz
here is a summary
Because investors would not supply finance for these “subprime” loans. Banks start securitising groups of loans and selling them (on the basis that it is safer) as a few defaults would still means investor make money. These investment are then sold to investment banks and to other investors who likes the look of these returns.
However when the US interest rate start going up, the US house prices fell 15% and these “subprime” loans start defaulting. The owner of these securised loan does not know how many of their loan are “subprime” and how many is about to default, so people are not willing to buy these loans. So everyone who normally supply money for the financial market stop supplying them, so there is now no money for places like Australia (which does not have this problem) And if they do supply money it is on high interest rates (ie our bank’s borrowing cost had increased)
I know what the subprime crisis is. And what you’re saying explains that. However it does not explain anything else. Because the entire financial crisis was not caused by Freddie and Fannie… simple as that.
Dovif
Again I disagree with most of your post 410; I won’t bother to refute it all other than to say you could read Paul Krugman’s blog, among others, to understand. Suffice to say that the problem wasn’t investor’s refusing to loan to sub-prime borrowers. It was more akin to a finance scam – rolling them together (prime and sub-prime mortgages) allowed those financing sub-prime mortgages to avoid insurance costs and gain finance at a lower rate. Even then though, that wasn’t the main problem; it really was a speculative bubble, combined with an unregulated credit market. The second half of your post everyone ageees with – once confidence is lost, banks won’t lend to each other or anyone else.
As an aside, Warren Buffet has a company that still loans to sub-prime borrowers and they are still profitable. This is not the problem.
anyone watching QT
the fib rabble
busted,rusted done and dusted
gawd they feel the irrelevancy
good
The Libs seem a bit miffed that they do not have access to Govt. Departmetal advice. Tough luck – you are not the Govt.
Just watching QT…
Every single Opposition question has been about exactly what advice has been from Treasury.
I will therefore join the ranks of the hat-eaters.
If there is not a Treasury mole for the Libs, leaking day-to-day proceedings I WILL EAT MY HAT.
I only own a cheap hat, one made of straw for protection against the harsh Aussie sun when on summer camping hollies at the lovely Pacific Palms’, NSW, pristine and untrodden beaches (with real pippies in the sand!) but it is nevertheless a full-on hat and (in a pinch) chewable, if not digestable. It’s a beaut hat, but I WILL EAT IT if there is not a source of leaks from Treasury.
Given the somewhat fluffy nature of said leaks – in other words, they’re usually wrongish, or at least not very accurate – it’ll be a middle level public servant who thinks he (or, it must be said) she, is Christmas, and who has access to briefing drafts, rather than Cabinet minutes.
Expect an article based on these leaks from either Milne or Shanahan within the week (this is not part of the hat promise, however).
Rainmaker just seems too sure of himself by half.
just caught justine elliot
effectively saying “the rudd gvt delivering for older australians”
time to ravage the core support base
howards legacy will be seen as hollow promises
P.S. Can’t believe this, but is Joe Hockey actually criticising the upping of the First Home Buyers’ Grant?
Didn’t his mob invent it? And didn’t they double it at one stage to stave off the effects of the GST?
BB
The first home buyers grant is a threat to the class system as we have come to know it. We can’t have any riff-raff becoming land-owners can we? What will they want next, equal rights?
Also interesting to compare the opposition’s attitude to the release of treasury data now to when they were last in office, particularly on whatever advice the treasury provided on the last Howard pork bonanza?
what’s a pippy? a cross between a puppy and a hippy?
No 417
Increasing the home buyers grant has a risk of creating another bubble. The policy is somewhat mitigated by encouraging purchases of newly constructed homes, thereby potentially increasing supply of housing.
As I recall though, this is only a temporary measure until the next budget. I could be wrong, however.
GP
Yep its only until the end of July 2009.
Ooops June.
The First Home Owner Grant (FHOG) scheme was introduced on 1 July 2000 to offset the effect of the GST on home ownership. It is a national scheme funded by the states and territories and administered under their own legislation.
It was the GST that increased new house prices not the FHOG.
No 423
The cause of high house prices is less to do with the GST, rather it is a shortage of supply.
adam
its an edible sea shell
ps its pippi
So then how is increasing the grant going to create a “bubble” if there’s a pretty hard floor on prices due to undersupply?
The real cause of the price increase was changes in tax deductions for investment housing. There was a marked change in who was buying houses between teh GST (2000) and when the boom really took off (2001/02). The proportion of first home buyers fell and investors went up dramatically. That is, the bubble in Oz house prices was caused by tax policy, not easy credit. Our interest rates were amoung the highest in the OECD at the time – after all, we had a Liberal government
Mr X siding with Fibs to vote against medicare bill
Will this be a DD trigger?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2391981.htm?section=justin
No 427
Funny how you say ours were among the highest in the world at the time, yet in the next breath you’ll criticise Alan Greenspan for his egregiously loose monetary policy.
Hypocrisy – after all, we’re dealing with Labor voters here.
Gusface @425:
Plural “pippies” I would suggest.
Also, it’s not the shell that’s edible. It’s the mollusc.
Our house prices aren’t even dropped to anywhere near to levels of that in Europe and the US, are they? Primarily because those house prices dropped due to a massive oversupply and we have the exact opposite.
Xenophon’s argument doesn’t make any sense.
He wants it indexed, which would make it higher, but he doesn’t want to make it higher because that would make insurance premiums go up.
Conspiracy – The government told him to vote against it so they could force a DD.
The Govt. should bite the bullet. Scrap the 30% rebate for private insurance, put the $3 billion into the public health system. Scrap the Medicare Tax levy.
Then let the Private Health insurers stand on their own two feet. Let them insure whatever they like and charge whatever they like. If people feel they need private insurance, let the insurers provide policies people want to buy.
Dunno if this is relevant, but it made me feel good:
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24499726-462,00.html
“AUSTRALIA has topped the rankings in a prosperity index of more than 100 countries, with its quality of life and economic strength pushing it into number one spot. “
No 433
I accept the logic, but all that will do is cause a mass exodus of patients into the public system and more so than the medicare surcharge levy changes. And $3 billion won’t be enough to cover it.
If anyone cares, Turnbull’s set up a Twitter. Apparently he’s trying to outflank Rudd who has both a MySpace and a Facbeook but no Twitter.
http://twitter.com/turnbullmalcolm
Peter Costello
“Yes, of course, I wish I was still there running it”.
Ha Ha
No 434
Ah, so Howard was good after all.
Glad you feel good about it.
Howard had nothing to do with Australia’s economic prosperity, strong civic participation, charitable giving, high liveability and, most notably “increased leisure time”.
In fact, it is a statement to the resilience of Australians that we kept all those things even whilst Howard was dismantling them piece by piece.
GP
A large number of people with private insurance use the public system already. Some deny they have private health insurance when they do so.
What services do private hospital provide that public ones do not? Should private hospitals accept public patients if the Govt pays?
Isn’t this issue really at the crux of the “equality” and “public vs. private” debate? Do you think that people, instead of paying private health premiums, should have that taxed and redistributed in the form of public health or do you think that some people are entitled to better health care than others?
How sad’s this, Allbull me-tooing giving address to nation tonight lol.
cant recall the opposition getting to reply everytime Rodent had a rant?
ruawake @ 433
great idea, would Rudd need Senate support?
Are you serious? FMD
I assume if he needs it to increase the levy, he needs it to get rid of it as well.
When is the Rainmaker doing his address?
YEP 10 or Sky news even showed clip of Allbull’s recorded message to the nation. bugger really does think he’s PM !
vera
Yep it would need legislation. Nicola get working gal.
Why would or should Turnbull do an address to the nation?. I can understand the Prime Minister of the country doing such when it is necessary he weilds the power makes the decisions affecting everyone and is the person elected by the people to run the country – it is an apolitical action. The Opposition doing it can only be playing politics as it is an outsider with no power and no inside knowledge and pointless.
It is no more meaningful than the Leader of the Greens, Family First, Nats and Xenephon all giving their own address to the nation which I guess they could now do.
Usually the equal time bit only applies at election time – but we know the ABC now run by the Liberal party has decided to make that mean all the time now that Howard has gone.
ruawake
Bugger!
Ruawake 433
I strongly agree. Numerous reports show that private medical insurance is a LESS efficient way of funding health than direct government funding. The problem with private is that too much money gets siphoned off in either profit, fees or payments to non-essential elective care. The public system still provides 90% of the cost of the essentials. If you look back at the stated objectives of the private health rebates when first introduced, hardly any have been achieved, despite huge costs.
What is Turnbull going to say in his “address” tonight? We agree with the package but we want the details that Govt. Depts have given to the Govt. ?
Remember the last MYEFO? when the Liberal Party claimed that election promises were not election promises, because they were in MYEFO? $5 Billion worth.
Where is the treasury advice for the $5 billion they committed to in the runup to the last election?
I wonder Turnbull or anyone could think he had anything meaningful to say on the economy when he was totally incompetent on the matter of FAI?
BTW, noting Rudds comments on executive salary excess (quite right), proponents of free markets might care to explain these two gems:
http://www.law.harvard.edu/faculty/bebchuk/pdfs/Bebchuk-Grinstein.Growth-of-Pay.pdf
http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:d5OoApOIEwEJ:www.jape.org/component/option,com_remository/Itemid,26/func,download/id,36/chk,6b38ce8c8402c0f2c2cc241bdecd6798/no_html,1/+shields+executive+pay&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5
The first points out that Exec pay has gone up out of proportion to growth in the general economy or firms profits.
The second shows that in Australia the relationship between exec pay and firm perforamnce is actually negative. That is, the higher paid the executive, the lower the profit.
TP
Thanks for that one. It woud be funny if there was an election while Turnbull was in court as a defendant.
Ruawake 451
Exactly, and its not the only one. What about the reduction in top tax rates, or the $10 billion Murray scheme? $10 billion preventing a national recession doesn’t seem so bad by comparison, given that farming is less than 3% of GDP.
You can quite easily see a dislocation between executive pay and performance if a company wants to attract a high profile CEO to turn the company around or raise loan capital from lenders or shareholders.
But ultimately this focus on executive pay is absolutely irrelevant for the economy. It is a trivial part of the profits of most companies and is surely is a matter for the owners of the company, the shareholders. This is just political grand-standing.
The problem is that the banks are starting to realise that the guarantees are not coming for free and that the government wants a say on the running of the businesses.
TPS
The problem with executive pay is not the amount of money they are paid, it is the share incentives they are given. If they take risks to cause a short term rise in the share price, they gain.
When it goes pear shaped, they get out of jail free. This is what needs to be addressed.
Ruwake (457), but surely the shareholders of the company should sort that out?
Richard Severin Fuld, Jr. was rated the number 1 CEO. The defense rests.
Just saw Turnbull’s “Opposition reply to the PM’s address to the Nation Thingy”. Now I need a drink or two to figure out what he was trying to say.
Turnball’s “Address To The Nation”.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200810/r303119_1318804.asx
There was a few minutes of my life I’ll never get back – thanks for that Frank
I’ll join the chorus of “what was the point?”
What the hell is Turnbull doing adressing the nation? What a waste of time and space. Still, if there is ever the slightest possibility of a cheap vote to be won, you can count on a liberal finding it.
Turnbull is in a tough position because he carried on Nelson’s pseudo-populism. But I think what Turnbull was doing here was laying some markers for potential problems for the government in the future:
1) the government did the bail-out more for political reasons than economic, which is why they are coy on what Treasury said
2) the government has built up expectations over what it can do with the banks in return for the guarantee.
So for Turnbull, I didn’t think it was too bad.
Perhaps the point was that it was offered to him, and that the ABC is required to do this when the Prime Minister wants air time for a public announcement?
“AUSTRALIA has topped the rankings in a prosperity index of more than 100 countries,
In light of this:
perhaps cleaning up the funny goings on at AWB and turfing out those who turned a blind eye/failed to notice was responsible for our jump to the top of the rating.
Generic Person @ 435 -
all that will do is cause a mass exodus of patients into the public system and more so than the medicare surcharge levy changes. And $3 billion won’t be enough to cover it.
I doubt it. A lot of people are on the cheapest tables they can get away with to avoid the tax penalty. Ones that incur big co-payments if used.
All but one of the patients I shared a public hospital ward a while back had private insurance but elected to be treated as public patients.
Putting in place measures to restrict the pays of corporate executives is one of the most necessary and important policies that can be made in the entire industrial relations system.
Those who think that it’s the responsibility of shareholders to keep executive salaries in check have ZERO understanding of the practical realities involved in this issue.
Executives who are rewarded for their failure, or who are grossly overpaid, or who have the power to pay themselves what they like, is a substantial flaw of the whole capital sysem.
Ta William – if that’s true, you learn something everyday.
I have been told that Turnbull demanded a right of reply? Did the ALP ever get a right of reply to any of ‘Address to the Nation’ given by John Howard.
I am becoming a little tired of Fran Kelly on Breakfast trying to push every guest into giving a favourable view on Mr Turnbull and an unfavourable one on Rudd. This morning must have been very frustrating for her as no-one wanted to cheer on her favourite.
I want MY ABC hosts to be more factual and less opinionated. Their choice of words is usually uncomplimentary to Rudd & Co. Today they are using the phrase “Rudd is having to DEFEND” yesterday’s announcement. The word ‘explaining’ could have been used but would not have had the same effect. I will be sending off a complaint.
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
I should stress that I was only speculating.
SNIP: Abusive swear words not permitted – The Management.
Richard Severin Fuld, Jr. made $22 million the month before Lehman brothers went bankrupt. Close to $500 million in the past 6 years.
Is this excessive TPS ?
The ABC is required to offer equal time.
SNIP: Response to deleted comment deleted – The Management.
ruwake (473), it certainly is excessive compared to what I am paid, but so what? If the shareholders of Lehman’s, or the board, are silly enough to pay him too much compared to what CEOs for such businesses are worth on the recruitment market then it is up to them. It made little difference to the financial crisis or anything much else.
The trouble about all this moralising about greed is that CEOs of stuffed up companies may be easy targets but it just lays the political grounds for austerity. We haven’t had the down-side yet from the government. Just the hand-outs so far. Do people seriously think that is all that is coming?
Bob Brown should go on TV tomorrow and address the nation.
Though the poor Greens probably couldn’t afford the air time.
The end result would be that Turnbull would be the laughing stock of the country.
Obscene would be a better description
“The ABC is required to offer equal time.”
To every political party?
Either way it doesn’t explain why the addresses were delivered on Channel 10…
BH @ 469 -
I want MY ABC hosts to be more factual and less opinionated.
I’d just prefer they’d STFU if they couldn’t say anything constructive. I then might have avoided having to listen to one ABC local radio commentator, in the absence of anything to pillory Rudd over, went on and on about the closing remark in Rudd’s address – something along the lines of: “We will get through this crisis together” Apparently this was way to banal for this bloke because of course it was self evident that we would unless we dropped dead first. Life is just too short for such nonsense. SIGH!
Dario if someone paid that to me I can assure you I would not think it obscene. You of course would hand it back in disgust.
This is the policy required to control salaries of executives relative to other salaries in the work force:
Any executive who earns more than 100 times the average yearly salary SHOULD be taxed at a threshold of 80 cents in the dollar.
Where an executive feels greedy. Other salaries should rise in accordance with their contribution and abilities to the company and economy.
It is obscene that a company can lose two thirds of its value, lays off staff, and pay its CEO $30 mil in bonuses. After they kick the bucket, they will leave it to their spoilt little kids who never have to work a day in their lives and blow it on partying, drugs and alcohol.
On the topic of the pathetic MSM.
Australian headline:
“Banks blast Kevin Rudd over executive salaries crackdown”
By-line:
“AUSTRALIA’S big banks have savaged Kevin Rudd’s plan to crack down on executive salaries, asserting that the nation’s financial institutions were “not being bailed out by the Government”.”
So apparently he’s being “savaged” and “blasted”.
But what did the “big banks” actually say?
“Australian Bankers Association chief executive David Bell said the ABA would examine the proposal referred to in the Prime Minister’s speech today “when more detail is made available”.”
Adam – I have still been reliably informed that Mr Turnbull DEMANDED the time – even if the ABC was prepared to give it. He was probably on the phone 30 sec. after Rudd’s announcement of his speech yesterday.
Aside from that, perhaps it is time for them all to be strictly fair to both sides. I know the ABC’s excuse is that they have to play devil’s advocate but, regular listeners to RN’s Breakfast know that Fran Kelly is beside herself with delight when interviewing the Coalition. Easy questions, no devil’s advocate there but lots of sarcasm and cynicism for Rudd & Co.
The scrupulously fair Michelle Grattan continually corrects Fran’s assertions of the Govt’s failings.
So a bit less of the misuse of my taxes by ABC hosts would be appreciated.
Not if they were listening. Mr Rudd said tough times are coming. Apart from what Mr Rudd has had to say, people would have to be seriously blind if they haven’t caught up to the fact that storm clouds are engulfing every economy in the world.
PS: I agree with others who’ve said that Turnbull looks rather silly making his own grand address to the nation. He’s not the PM, his party is not in power, we voted them out at the election.A pointless stunt. If he’s playing politics, grandstanding (and that must be the conclusion) while the country faces the worst economic peril in our lifetimes, then it is a disgrace.
Well, no, The Piping Shrike, I wouldn’t have thought so, particularly given one of the senior Fed. Reserve people (California, I think) today declared the U.S. to be in recession. What strikes me is, all the nonsense in the MSM aside about Rudd being a workaholic, I don’t think that the marathon meetings about the global economic situation, and then the announcements about the guarantees for the deposits and foreign borrowing of the banks, plus the $10 billion Xmas presents, is about nothing. It’s certainly about something fairly dire. I also don’t think Rudd has been on the phone to just about everyone, is anything other than an indication that any amount of excrement is hitting, and will continue to hit, the global fan. Turnbull’s pompous grandstanding may be political markers to position himself for further attacks on the gov’t., but he may be playing a dangerous game, if it is as ghastly as I suspect. Could look very soon like a pompous no nothing.
It’s just not that simple to say that shareholders should reject gross payments to executives.
Sorry, no should be know, of course
Even if Turnbull was offered the opportunity to go on TV (again I don’t understand what the ABC has to do with it because I’m fairly sure Rudd’s address was broadcast on Ten, not ABC?) that doesn’t necessarily mean he should have taken it.
The last time we had a PM addressing the nation was when Howard was detailing the problems he perceived and the responses he was talking regarding Iraq. Did the opposition leader at the time feel it was important to say both “We support you” and “Why are you doing it?”.
TPS do you still say that Work Choices was not a factor at the last election?
I believe that last Friday was a defining/changing moment in the world as we know it. Today we have the US government buying into banks ffs. PBers here can argue about the merits of left/right, Labor/Liberal, etc. However, it is all irrelevant. The crisis is beyond point scoring.
There are hairy times ahead for all. Batten down the hatches.
In Perth it was shown on all 3 Commercial Stations and on the ABC – and I’m assuming SBS.
I’m in Sydney but I definitely remember checking ABC… Unless I accidentally flicked to ABC2. So the commercial stations gave Turnbull a free run out of “balance”?
Harry (486), Turnbull will always run the risk of looking pompous because he is. But while I think he is generally politically tone deaf, I think he has touched on weaknesses in the government’s position. Maybe Australia is heading for a recession but Rudd was saying it wasn’t three days before and you would think they would release the revised Treasury forecasts if so. Tanner was very shifty on this point on Lateline last night.
Ruwake (490), yep, because Gillard keeping most of it has not done her popularity any harm at all!
those foretelling doom and gloom
I recommend rhinoceros:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070605/
“A truly strange and unusual film, involves Gene Wilder as a man who seems all alone in the world as everyone else has started to catch a strange flu, which starts with bumps on there foreheads and then eventually turns them into raving lunatics, and finally into a Rhinocerous.”
Geez, after watching that “right of reply” I must say we are so damn lucky to have Malcolm Turnbull. He knows everything. He is so amazing; truly an economic giant, a financial soothsayer.
If only we could let him be dictator of the nation, life would be good.
Many of us have seen it all before GG but this is the first time we have seen a concerted effort by all world leaders to work it through. Hopefully they will succeed.
It is a pity that the ‘boom/bust’ cycle of 10 years arrived a little late this time. I remember 61, 71, Psoeidon/share crash mid-late 70s, 81/82, 87 share crash, 91, 2001 (lost heaps in super on retirement in 2002).
Apart from sub-prime stuff we’ve been encouraged to run the credit card bonanza for too long. Pity it was never called a debit card – that may have made people think a little differently.
Just hope that Rudd, Swan & Tanner keep working on it 24/7. I don’t trust Mr Turnbull – his ethics seem a little loose.
Maybe the commercial stations are licking their lips at the thought of the gravy train of government advertising that runs bountifully when the Liberals are in power (witness Howard).
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/howards-2bn-splurge/2007/09/01/1188067438538.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
There is little doubt why Turnbull was able to inappropriately got on the ABC to do some politicking – it is run by Howard loving hacks determined to get the Liberal party elected.
Fran Kelly is of course, in my opinion, is a waste of time and awful at her job, my 14 year old niece would do a far better job than her at political reporting and interviewing – but she has set the bar pretty low.
The OO reminds me of those scraps of paper that fall out fortune cookies. But at least a cookie is something that has some value.
I was referring to Rudd’s speech being on the commercials and the ABC – I have no idea on Turnbull
I am perfectly happy for Turnbull to appear on TV as much as he likes, each time he does he sets a hand grenade for himself.
How long can he keep ignoring his past statements?
BH,
When was the last time Governments bought in to Banks.
Do you have evidence about Tanner or is it just point scoring sleaze by you?
If the commercial networks televised Turnbull’s reply, it isn’t fair. I remember Simon Crean giving a reply in opposition to the war in Iraq (in which he was proven to be totally correct) and he was totally ignored.
Actually Crean had a legitimate reason to reply since he was actually *replying* to what Howard said. Not pretending to be bipartisan and trying to score political points at the same time, like Turnbull.
TP – Unfortunately RN is only station in this area with any information. Commercial stations (2) are woeful and local ABC is nothing to write home about.
Gave up buying newspapers ages ago – not worth the money and am thankful for the bits that PBers put on here. it saves me checking the websites too often.
I find the comments here more illuminating than the MSM journos anyway – Bushfire Bill is pure class. Was he a journo at some stage in a previous life?
William, Possum and Shrike are fonts of knowledge too so I think readers on this site are well served on a variety of issues.
If times get tougher then good comments will help a lot of us.
The Piping Shrike @ 494. I suspect, though have no way of knowing, that the incessant bleatings from the Opposition, for release of Treasury advice that led to the gov’t.’s moves, reveals either, as Bushfire Bill has proposed, a middle level leak from Treasury, or in my view, no one has got much of a clue what the hell is going on. Seriously, every one has been caught out by revelations about the shenagigans that have been going on internationally.
malcom’s playing air guitar without the air.
Desperately trying to keep the Libs in the game.
So does the ‘equal time’ rule really apply outside elections campaigns?
Rudd makes an announcement about a natural disaster (cyclone, flood etc) and the opposition gets a right of reply?
Maybe we better give the opposition equal funding to answer all government advertising.
Turnbull better get used to irrelevance. He’s going to have to put up with it for a long time.
ABC Sydney had Turnbull on right before the 7pm news.
I agree with ruawake, the more people actually get to see Turnbull, pompous wally that he really is, rather than be missled with all the BS adulation from the MSM and ABC Lib stooges the better.
But you’d think that if the revised forecasts were still pretty decent, Rudd would release them just to shut the opposition up.
Though this is a better way to starve them of oxygen and leave them looking like they have no clue, a la HSO’s comment.
Harry (506) quite true, but the problem is that the government has now acted. This could leave them exposed. For example, if China still holds up (which is quite possible) and so does Australia, then the opposition can claim that Rudd blew the surplus out of panic with no Treasury advice. That might work or not, but that is what I think Turnbull is hoping. Keep your head down now but position yourself if things change. I think for Turnbull, it is wise.
GG – Not sure what the Tanner comment is. If you meant ‘Turnbull’ and my take on his ethics then I was thinking about his leaking of stuff re Kerry Packer in the dead of night, plus the HIH stuff, and recent flipflops. I need to be convinced about him. Have a couple of kids in Canberra and they are sure Turnbull is getting leaks from someone inside – not always quite correct, but close enough for an ex merchant banker to work it out.
Re Banks – I think Banks in Victoria and SA were bailed out by Governments in past years. I only hope that Rudd is setting the insurance stake very, very high in return for guaranteeing them now.
TPS,
Turnbull is being disingenous as you would expect him to be. The plan is to be totally in favour of the Government’s initiatives until it is convenient to ditch them for political gain.
Yep, Rudd is doing badly. He should know with certainty what every other mere mortal can only estimate. If Australia is going to fall into recession? If Rudd does not know with certainty, Turnbull benefits. Fantastic!
BH,
Sincerest apologies. I totally misread your comment as applying to Lindsay Tanner.
Sorry.
Nice line GG. Actually I think Turnbull playing pocket billiards, as my Year 10 Maths teacher used to say of the dopey lads in his class.
The Liberals spent an inordinate amount of time in Question Time today raving on and on about “paying off Labor’s 96 billion dollar debt”. Inordinate, because it’s an old story, and surely what is important is what is happening now. There’s a new, much more relevant story unfolding than that old Liberal Talking Point.
It seems they want to go on endlessly congratulating themselves for actions from the annals of history, while the real history, the real groundbreaking stuff, is unfolding around all our ears as they, Liberals, speak.
Running in parallel to that line of rhetoric is a new question, asked by them more than once today: Can the government guarantee the budget will not be in deficit by the time of the next election?
Surely one take-home fact from this developing mess is that these are uncertain times, uncharted waters, as the saying is going. If anyone a couple of years ago had predicted that the ardently-free market US government would be well on the way to nationalising banks and other finance industries in 2008, they’d probably have been laughed out of town.
As the rollercoaster of events has shown, it’s anybody’s guess what might happen next week, let alone by the time of the next election – an eternity away with events quickening the way they are.
It is obviously possible that the government will have to eventually run a deficit to counter adverse economic trends. Governments of bigger economies than ours are having to do it. The Aussie government ran a deficit last time there was a recession, and the government before that (Howard, Treasurer) did the same.
If this is as bad as some are predicting, and the government does have to run a deficit as part of their duty of care to the economy, I can just see the miserable Liberals shaping that up as ” an election issue”, complete with endless more reruns of the line “last time they left office with a 96 billion dollar debt; this time they have once again run up a budget deficit”. Their current rhetoric indicates they are sowing the seeds of that line of attack right now.
If the Aussie economy does join the world’s in going to shit, you can trust the Liberals to be in there, shit-peddling and throwing shit around just as hard as they can. Shit, after all, is all they are good for lately.
“Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has accused the Government of acting too late to protect Australia against the effects of the global economic crisis.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2392197.htm
So is he saying we’re all doomed ,it’s too late now, and unlike Kev and world leaders he Rainman knew all along that this world financial crisis was going to happen but being the shrinking violet that he is decided to keep it to himself lol?
What a tool!
Are we sure this wasn’t his work on Bolts blog
“Many of us predicted that Rudd would destroy our economy. But under no circumstance did we predict that he would destroy the whole capitalist system world-wide.”
(posted by cuppa on “rockin over world” thread)
Turnbull is fast becoming the Uri Geller of economics. He can move interest rate with his own opinion. He can foresee what other do not.
Was just up at the local Vintage Cellars buying a quaff, and ran into one of the regular wine samplers there in what passes for the only “bar” where you can have a chat and a wine in Beecroft. As we sampled a nice little Merlot (a bit too dusty for my liking, BTW), this chap – who is a seniorish public servant in the defence Dept. – became quite angry over the non-disclosure of Treasury advice in QT this afternoon.
It was a good question: why not reveal Treasury’s idea of where the economy is going?
There were three answers to this to my mind…
1. The advice is so bad that they can’t reveal it without causing a panic.
2. Nobody really knows what’s happening, much less what’s happening down the track, so why risk a panic by idle (and probably wrong) speculation?
3. It’s none of Turnbull’s business. He’s not the government.
We adjourned to our respective homes still friendly after another glassor two. But it got me thinking: which altrernative was right? Of the three, (2) springs to my mind as the strongest contender.
Turnbull said on national TV today, these astonishing words:
Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he? “With the benefit of hindsight…. The corollary of that statement is:
That’s if they had a crystal ball. And there’d have been a few other world leaders wanting to borrow it, because they all failed to act, under Turnbull’s definition.
On another failure to act, when Turnbull, as a member of Howard’s government, failed to act on pensions, he claimed later on that things suddenly went belly up after the election, and that at the time (May 2007) there had been no need to act on pensions: the pensioer’s plight was unforseeable. Whither “hindsight” in the pensioners case?
Rainmakers never take responsibility for the crook tips they spruik to the mugs. They only take credit when they win. That’s the essence of the scam.
vera,
I have seen that comment “cut & pasted” on at least 6 different sites. Variations of Lib talking sheet comments are being constantly plastered on every available site, especially ABC sites with comments.
The staff in Liberal HQ are electorate offices are working overtime at present. It gets pretty boring after a while seeing the same rubbish being sprouted by the same old suspects all over the net.
The Piping Shrike @ 511. I would have thought the obvious. The gov’t thought they had to act. It was not some sort of stunt; they, the gov’t and we are exposed to the most appalling combination of global economic and climate change disaster imaginable. This is no longer business as usual. Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t get it. Though, if he supposedly had the smarts he’s supposded to have, you’d have thought he would have.
Amazing isn’t it, all year Brenda and then Rainman demanding the govt spend billions on fuel tax and pensions and that was OK, but now Rudd has spent same billions on pensioners, families etc the fibs start screaming about blowing the budget.
Well, the Newspoll still says 55 vs. 45 TPP, make of that what you will.
Yeah, when you think of it, $2 billion for the fuel excise cut (admitted by Turnbull as purely a gesture), $4 billion on pensioners, $2 billion blocked in the Senate on alcopops and a further couple of billion blocked on Medicare… and you have your $10 billion.
The First Home Buyers’ Grant is a Liberal invention, so they can’t be complaining about that canthey?
So what are they complaining about?
I don’t think things are that bad Harry. Besides a one-off cash hand-out will make little difference even if it was.
But hey, why knock it. Money is honey.
What are they complaining about? Why, Rudd – make that KRUDD – trashed the world economy, of course. He and the Labor Party. The world ended when the Fibs lost the election. (Well, their miserable world, that is).
Impotence.
kvetching is a Lib. strong point, Bushie. That’s what they do. Endlessly. Repeatedly. On and on, without the melody. No talent for singing or poetry, that’s their problem.
The Piping Shrike @526. I think things are that bad. We’ll see how it turns out, no doubt, but I think Rudd is being as straightforward as he can be.
I am hoping there will be more addresses to the nation.
We dont do it enough.
Rudd and Malcolm should have party politicals too like they have in the UK.
Anyway I like having Parliamentarians speak to the public in this fashion.
Three Cheers for Stephen Harper…another Tory Government in the world that is keeping on!
Absolutely spot on Vera @ 523. Btw, top name for Talcum – Rainman. Classic.
Bushfire, the Libs are complaining about lump sum payments. (I can hear McAvaney again) “can you believe it”.
Also if Obama wins there will be a great chance obscene CEO payments will be restricted. OO HOO, go Obama.
Glen, as a Yes PM fan, I would’ve thought better of you than that!
The media is not only meant to keep the government honest but also not let the Opposition get away with rubbish. The Turnbull idea that Labor might be too late is of course nonsense since the meltdown was sudden and, Rudd acted early. The media should take Turbull to task on this. But they of course probably wont, being mostly liberal party sympathisers.
We got rid of Howard but there remains his bitter grieving lovers in throughout the murdoch media and ABC – who will probably refuse to force the Liberal party and Turnbull to be honest and credible, whilst attacking the Government with Liberal party talking points.
Now if Australia does somehow manage to avoid a recession or has one less severe than elsewhere in the world then Rudd will be able to claim credit for it and in some little part he would be right. This is what worries Turnbull – Rudd has acted appropriately and might actually achieve something. Like that business executive said ‘Turnbull seems like the only person that wants Australia to go into a recession’.
I am still waiting for Labor to bring up the wasted decade – the decade of record surpluses from the mining boom that the Howard govt with Turnbull wasted. How many hundred billions was it? Howard/Costello and Turnbull failed to plan for beyond the mining boom (to resurrect the pre-election campaign ) and left Australia exposed. People will relate to it and scratch their heads as to where is that money?
Actually I think they have brought that up about every QT this year!
eg on Tuesday:
Aussie 3-0! Japan and the Uzbeks 1-1 at HT
This is the sort of thing they need to remind people of outside of QT whenever they get interviewed. The mining boom rained $390 billion and they wasted it, did nothing to protect Australia’s future, left Australia dangerously exposed and has left to it up to the Labor government to build protection for Australia against recessions to do the job they failed to do…blah etc. $390 billion dollars of Australian’s money wasted, nothing to show for it…. blah and usual rhetoric.
We’ll still lose.
They were not interested in setting up the country for the future because they were too preoccupied trying to set the Liberal Party up for the future (permanent future in power being their ideal).
What has Australia got to show for their almost dozen years in office? Crumbling infrastructure, among the world’s highest debt levels, and the world’s fourth highest Current Account deficit. A soured international reputation for children in gulags and a Bush rectal parasite.
I agree TP. Hammer it again. And Again. And again.
I liked this from Rudd also on Tuesday (in responce to a Hockey question)
Good words. But he needs to follow through.
Such comments deserve a yellow card William!
4-0 now
Bishop on LL – sounding incredibally stilted. And she is praising PJK. lol NOw there are strange bedfellows
Cuppa, whilst i agree with you in regards to the last 12 years, some of these problems also are a result of the government before this one. Negative Gearing and Financial deregulation have ignited this and the Libs were just adding to it.
Must state even though i dislike the man, Turnbull is right, early in the year it was inflation and a skills shortage , remember for months it was a skills shortage now it is trouble times ahead… What a muddled government we have.
If we are to get out of the mess the government will have to borrow money because the private sector will be unable to do so. If we had more public companies we would have more jobs and possiblities instead we will have greater problems.
Turnbull to me so far is doing very well as leader he is being reasonable and cool and for Labor to carry on about he being for or against it is being stupid- can’t someone criticrise or have an opinion. Must agree though that his view about seeing the books is silly. As the Liberals would be doing exactly the same.
Quesiton are pensioners and carers going to get a weekly increase in payments or is this a one off? If so I do not support it.
You seem to be forgetting what happened in between
Question on LL and 7:30 report etc. Who decides who gets on? Does Bishop ring up and say she wants on, or does the ABC do the asking?
MM – what’s wrong with a one-off now, and a weekly increase next year after the review is done?
To have governed during one of the most spectacular periods of global prosperity ever, with the added benefit of a domestic mining boom, and then leaving office with practically nothing tangible to show for it … that’s the Liberals’ and Nationals’ undeniable record.
Reminds me (in a way) of this message from a Sydney Morning Herald blog on 29 October 2007:
http://blogs.smh.com.au/federalelection/archives/2007/10/campaign_cheer_or_campaign_cha.html?page=fullpage#comments
As Bishop (who does not know how to answer any questions) says Labor was against Lump sums but hay presto it is now for them. Would rather have a weekly increase than lump sums that way people can plan their living arrangements in a better way.
Nonetheless i suppose a handout is not so bad to people who are some of the poorest in the country- change my mind on this one..
Bishop hopeless.. When will a politician answer the questions instead of muddling around it all the time… Only seen two politicians on Lateline of late who actually talk straight Joel Fitzgibbon and Bob Brown the rest make lives so hard for themselves.
Did you watch Four Corners on Monday night Dario, you would have seen that these probs were occurring in October last year and were getting worse.
On the interest rate impact – the Syd Future Exchange Market is still predicting 100% a drop to 5.50% in Nov
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
Cuppa i agree they were hopeless economic managers. But again in 1983 this country had little foreign debt but as soon as we deregulated the finanical system it began to increase massively… Negative gearing introduced by Labor also caused a massive boom in housing speculation and has made housing unaffordable along with the capital gains measures introduced by Costello as policies which can never be scrapped. Creating disparities in housing ownership and living standards and finally Labor privatised many government owned businesses which have had deplorable industrial reliations records and it made legal casual work which yep does nothing for working people waiting at home for the phone calls whether they will work today with no sick leave or holiday pay. Sorry whilst Labor may have had grand plans they were all about the wealthy and don’t forget it was Labor that reduced the income tax levels from 60 cents in the dollar to 47 for high income earners.. yes Labor.
I will go further 2 per cent by the end of next year.
One would think from reading many of the comments here that Turnbull is a complete dill.
But his history demonstrates he has extraordinary intellect and abilities.
The fact that his satisfaction ratings are very positive shows that he is making significant progress. He shouldn’t be written off.
I think it indicates that much of what he has said has resonated with the public. Of course he’s an arrogant prat, but a very clever one. He has the ability to cut through.
His offer of bipartisanship on the financial crisis is but one example. How could you disagree with that? Very clever IMHO.
But it’s bollocks. Pass the budget, then we’ll talk. If he did that, the Govt would lose one of it’s easiest responses on most issues regarding the Libs.
Winston as a Leftie i agree with you. He should not be taken for granted. His comments today were not erratic like Nelson they were simple and constrained. I can’t stand the man but he has in a way put the government on the ball..
Of course it’s bollocks Grog, but rather clever bollocks.
Just to make it perfectly clear, I can’t stand him either Marky. I just wouldn’t underestimate him.
If he passed the budget (”in the interests of stability in these times of financial uncertainty blah blah”) it would be clever. At the moment it’s see-through.
I don’t take him for granted, but I think his “know it all” style will wear thin.
only caught the end of Bishop on LL but she was all over the place, raving on about the trillions of bad debt, losses or some such thing of overseas banks, and then sorta suggesting that our banks could all go broke because of dealings with those foriegn banks and because of Rudd’s bank guarantee the aussie taxpayer will be up for $trillions of OS banks bad dept??
Anyhoo, cheers all – 4-0; a good night for Aus.
Turnbull is over estimated by most. It is very easy to be populist when the agenda is made for you, it is simple to take any issue use a negative opposing angle from it – that is politician 101.
Turnbull had a few basic Treasury leaks and was able to raise some things that were on the horizon in any case but he was unable to be sophisticated with them or to hone them in anyway, unable to turn them into more than a short phrase. For a supposed merchant banker it is surprising he could make so little out of those leaks or create any continuity out of it.
Like all Oppositions it is possible to find any number of things to gain say on. But it helps a lot when the media carries out and makes more out of it than it is for you giving you more credibility than you actually have.
Turnbull’s problem is going to be when he has to make his own agenda, bring forth coherent well thought out policies and platforms as he will have to do at some stage. It takes more than being pompous or having an ego and more than just pushing share certificates around or giving grossly incompetent advice. People are mistaking arrogance for skill which he showed he did not have when up against a new and nervous Swan who in the end beat him into inferiority, not a good sign for Turnbull.
Whilst the media keep giving him bonus media exposure and giving credence to the nonsense he comes out with they will create the impression he has some ability. But he has shown very little so far beyond what Nelson could do.
Rainman has a glass jaw. Republic proved that, loved strutting his stuff, nose in air, until the vote was NO, and then he crumpled and slunk off tail between his legs.
TKO
Marky, I guess I’m of a like mind to the person who wrote the post I pasted in at number 549. Chaffing that Howard, after a pretty ordinary showing in his earlier incarnation as Treasurer, managed to later acquire a reputation as some master of the universe economic “manager”. Costello too, for that matter, one of the laziest government ministers for many years (criticised as such by some Liberal colleagues), yet he’s gone into folklore as some giant guru!
It’s easy for a government or party to appear “good with the economy” when the prosperity is raining down in bucketfuls and a mining boom is pouring in billions. But luck can work both ways. If a significant global slowdown had occurred during the Liberals’ time in office, I’ve no doubt they’d have run the budget into deficit, presided over high unemployment etc, as have Aussie governments before them during adverse climates.
Japan 1 Uzbeks 1, Aussies clear at the top of group A
Labor wasted its time in office. It allowed the Murdochs and Packers to get their way.
Howard didn’t waste his time he did what ideologically he believed. Labor did not, other than Health care.
Howard did what conservative governments always do nothing except help the very wealthy and stuff us up.
If Labor had control of the Senate it would be far more active than it is.
But Rainmaker will say it would have even less severe if Rudd had followed his instructions to the letter.
No 564
Lazy? Oh dear cuppa. You’re off on one of your rancorous sermons again. When Keating was in power, his minsters were flat out turning up to parliament.
I think it is a win situation for Rudd with the public. The public have watched on the TV and in the paper the economic chaos that is happening right around the world, the rush meetings and the drastic measures that have been taken. Then they see their PM take measures to try and protect the country.
If we end up with a demonstrably less severe recession than the rest then the public will understand that it was due to events beyond anyone’s control and would begrudge Rudd some success in staving off the worst of the effects on them. If they see other western countries doing it really tough then they will feel a little bit better off with their own smaller recession – if it happens.
The world has moved on since the last recession, people are more informed and more often informed, they see that economics revolves around world events. And if Rudd has any further success at all with China in the interim it will be a bonus for him and us.
And still I think Labor has a legitimate question to put and issue to put before the public in the LNPs waste of hundreds of billions in surpluses, no small matter. They really need to be bought to account on this.
The public will hate this huge waste intensely even if they got some tax cuts and pork barreling out it, they will have forgotten and wouldn’t be feeling that much richer for it.
Just like the more trivial issue of multimillion dollar CEO wages/bonuses makes everyone emotionally really p*ssed off and incensed the frittering away of hundreds of billions of dollars with nothing to show for it by the Howard/Turnbull/Costello crew will also make the public incensed. Especially at this time when the world is in financial trouble and we really need to have such surpluses. Labor should be reminding the public that the Liberals wasted huge amounts of surpluses – it will be an emotive issue in my view.
And with regard the USA economy I get the feeling they have a further cliff to walk of yet. Hang onto your cash.
No 566
Marky marky, if you think that only the wealthy benefited under Howard, then you have a wilfully blind.
Just think, the median wage is ~$50,000. Had Howard not reduced tax, average people would be paying 47 cents in the dollar. Now the overwhelming majority pay just 30 cents. Add family payments, baby bonuses and so forth and low & middle class people did pretty well. Also, under Howard people could find a job. Under Keating there wasn’t any work.
You Labor hacks really need urgent head checks given your frivolous disregard of facts.
should read: “then you are wilfully blind”
They didn’t waste anything. Heck at least they got the budget balanced! After 13 years of mismanagement and waste under Keating, the Libs inherited an enormous $96 billion of debt and a massive deficit budget.
But obviously this doesn’t count.
And the way Rudd’s been spending lately, we may very well slide back into debt.
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/news/ap/finance_business/2008/Oct/15/retail_sales_plunge__wholesale_prices_fall.html
I just wonder if the US opened up its residential housing market to foreigners for a few years if it would generate enough cash in flows and help hold up housing prices. Seems that this is going is all going to feed on itself and spiral down deeper.
Keating as treasurer had at least 3 surplus budgets. That’s after fixing the mess Howard, as treasurer,had left behind. The $B96 deficit was manageable and easy paid back, by us tax payers, as was shown by Costello.Then there was a World recession in 1991-2 which of coarse Keating’s Government had to go into deficit to keep Australia functioning. Howard/Costello inherited an economy that was growing and interest rates going down.
Kevin Rudd (the ALP) has again inherited an economy that had inflation on the rise, interest on the rise and a World economic tsunami heading our way.
Where is it that your (GP and follow travelers) beloved Howard and Costello are better economic managers than other Australian Governments?
The LNP (Opposition) continue to use a 12 year old Budget balancing effort to hit back at the Rudd Government. How Pathetic are they?
They wasted there time by not funding the States for important infrastructure building. The funding they gave was in the form of regional and local pork barreling. Now they, the LNP, are blaming the States for lack of infrastructure funding. Yes we do know the story re GST and the States, it was still a decrease in overall funding.
“Geez, after watching that “right of reply” I must say we are so damn lucky to have Malcolm Turnbull. He knows everything. He is so amazing; truly an economic giant, a financial soothsayer.”
I thought Turnbull was brilliant, the sincerity, the serious direct look into the camera, the hint of a raised eyebrow at the end and there is even a striking similarity in features.
So much like Micalef
regarding the share market, I just posted this on the US election thread: I found the further share market fall odd last night. While I posted yesterday that the US had finaly admitted it was in recession, this should have already been factored into market prices. It is not news. With all the bank stabilisation programs in place now, there is good reason to believe we will not see a depression, even though a US recession is inevitable. So called “professional investors” are not behaving verry rationally at the moment.
Socrates I think the markets may not be terribly pleased to see the world’s banking system now run by government. The markets never got the financial restructuring it wanted.
Muskiemp 576
Reminds me of the “debt truck” another Lib stunt used against Keating. Thing is by the end of their 11+ year stint the truck wasn’t big enough, needed a double engine goodstrain with about 50 carriages to lump it around.
Didn’t I hear a Lib say yesterday that Rudds $10bil was too much an overreaction and it’d just be **** up against the wall? hmm another 700 drop on US stock market seems like we got a way to go yet.
As someone quite rightly pointed out yesterday, the Libs were planning to spend at least $10 billion on stupid initiatives like cutting excise that would have no beneficial effect on the whole economy but simply line the pockets of oil executives.
YES YES YES.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24505099-12377,00.html
Medical levy surchage bill going to pass.
$70K for singles and $140K for couples, indexed to wages growth.
$10.4 billion’s of bonus’ one day, tax cuts for hundreds of thousands of Australians the next.
great news OZ.
what a difference a day makes
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2392341.htm
NICK XENOPHON: Well, the answer is (laughs) yes, I’ll be voting no.
NICK XENOPHON: I actually ran into the Prime Minister yesterday for the first time. It was just a chance meeting.
LYNDAL CURTIS: So, not a formal meeting yet.
NICK XENOPHON: No, a couple of words were exchanged. I think the PM said ‘Kevin’ and I said ‘Nick’ and we shook hands and that was the extent of the conversation but it could be the start of a beautiful relationship.”
A beautiful relationship indeed!
Turnbull only got one line in the Australian article as well, poor bloke.
“We still think it’s a bad measure”. I think something like this can be beneficial for the Government. They’re working with a broad range of people and opinions (The Greens to FF) and getting them to agree ffs! Meanwhile the Opposition’s shouting from the background “WE STILL DON’T LIKE IT” but no one can hear over the congratulatory backslapping going on between the Government and the cross benchers.
wont be a happy QT for Rainman today lol more lectures about Greens, Idps being more economical responsible than him!
hope Kev gets stuck into him about his cheap political shot that Rudd acted to slow (we were ist on interset rate cut first with bank guarantees etc, ffs,)
Doing my bit to boost the discretionary spending economy, I wne and got my car washed this morning. Hence, I had a rare read of the printed version of the SMH while waiting for the chamois wallahs to do their thing.
In it there was a story I’d otherwise have missed (as it was buried inthe on-line edition) and photo about a woman who had experienced extended labour in giving birth to a healthy, bouncing baby boy a couple of days ago. Only problem was that by the time she’d dropped the deadline for the $1,000 had passed. Was she pi$$ed off? You bet!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/benefit-slips-away-during-daylong-labour/2008/10/15/1223750129808.html
Then why whinge about it Lee-Anne?
Hard to see what the point of the story was… was it that Rudd should extend the deadline by 24 hours? Hard to see that working, as it would give rise to yet another crop of whingers, staggered by 24 hours. Apply it to women in labour at the time? Ditto reasoning for not doing that. It just seemed that someone at the SMH realised there’s be some post-mifnight births around the hospitals in Sydney and sent the reporter out to trawl for hard luck stories.
No matter that the baby wasn’t stillborn in a toilet, or wasn’t genetically defective, or otherwise disadvantaged. He was perfectly healthy. But this was no excuse for Mum not whingeing about it, and no excuse for not running the superfluous, stupid story. What’s the SMH going to do? Take up a collection? I doubt it.
I bet they are. Hard to believe, but Lee-Anne has something to be thankful for…
“Work it out”? I bet she’s done that too. I’m waiting for the pensioners to start squealing.
Conroy has just announced that ABC and SBS Directors will now be appointed through an independent review process with applications open to the public.
They’re introducing legislation to ensure that appointments will be made on merit.
Former politicians or political staffers will not be allowed to be appoint. And when appointing the Chair, the PM will consult with the Opposition leader. And they’re re-introducing the staff elected director. I’m typing this as I hear it, lol. You can watch Conroy’s speech on the ABC.
How exciting. So all of Janet Albrechtsen’s sucking up has been for nothing ahahahaha.
He also released a discussion paper, apparently instigated by the 2020 summit, that SBS and ABC will be having closer ties together. No specifics though.
Oz
I’d nominate Bushfire Bill for director of the ABC,if he stood of course.
Citizen journalism meet citizen democracy.
A new dawn emerges for this country.
Are car washes payable on expenses at the ABC?
When do the current ABC Directors’ contracts run out? soon I hope.
Bushfire Bill you might get given a govt car!
Piping Shrike 579
That would explain Wall Street -they might have been factoring in ripping off the taxpayer via a Paulson bailout rather than having to give up equity. No sympathy of course.
But if that is the reason for Wall Street, it still doesn’t explain our market following them down like a bunch of lemmings. Nothing has changed for the ASX. Threats of limits of exec pay (hurray!) will actually boost returns to shareholders, so logically that should put share prices up. Its still an irrational emotional response IMO.
I became quite angry about it this morning, when I heard the bunch of lemmings that inhabit the ASX floor “investors”. Too nice and proper a term, by half, for them. A bunch of scardie-cats rooted in the herd mentality (”A herd of cats?” I hear youse ask… don’t worry about it).
They run this way, then that, then back again, like a bunch of drunks trying to stay upright on a floating log. And yes, whereas the good news of earlier in the week was relegated to story #4 in the Business Section, today’s write-off occupies its proper place as a screaming banner.: “Bloodbath” on market.
We hear each morning what the Futures Market has set the coming day’s price to be and it follows as a school of dogs follows a herd of cats. Self-fulfilling prophecy, anybody?
As I am on 9 demerit points with two years to go (bloody speed cameras!), I may end up needing a driver as well.
Another day, another airline, same type of plane, same place…
Airbus Lands After emergency
http://www.smh.com.au/news/news/airbus-lands-after-emergency/2008/10/16/1223750195681.html
There was some talk today that radio signals from NW Cape might be interfering with flight computers in fly-by-wire planes.
Put that phone back on the hook, ET.
It’s time to restore the independence.
“The new appointment process will ensure that all future appointments to the ABC and SBS boards are conducted in a manner that fosters independence, transparency, accountability and public confidence.”
“Advertisements in newspapers tomorrow will call for applications for two positions from each board and Senator Conroy says the applications will be assessed by publicly available selection criteria.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2392865.htm?section=justin
bludgers
watch if you can ch 9 6pm news tonite.
all i can say at this stage (and no its not a political issue)
Gus, have you been running naked down Pitt Street again?
We’ve told you before….
Possums left in Qld charity bin
Someboyd having family troubles?
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=647737
It’s why I’m so snarky today.
Now look – I have nothing against giving the poor more possums, but fair dinkum, let me tell you the process left a bit to be desired!
Possum,
Remember this from your days as a Kids TV personality ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpomOzv7L9o
Classic!
You think that was funny, you should have seen Aggro’s outtakes from Wombat. I’ve just searched for them on YouTube, but in vain.
Agro at his best – these would have to be outtakes!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=pfefa5Oiexk
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=grFZISEooNE
This last one is a collection.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=hJDd8WN21O0
Funny bugger
Good work. Believe me, there were plenty more.
9 more minutes of Agro taking the piss out of Ann Marie!
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpt2FN4OvxU
We need to bring Agro back for Insiders!
Jamie Dunn (Agro) has made himself at home at Zinc FM, based in Noosa.
And has apparently been signed to present 4BC Brisbane Breakfast next year, which of course is part of Fairfax and is a Talk station – imagine Agro interviewing Rudd
Can we get back on topic please? (you can thank me later William
)
Wonder if Possums could do one of those Rollercoast graphics for daily superannuation movement.
Man the pumps.
Shares dropped another 6% today:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/shares-kod-20081016-51pq.html
As I said, a lemming like quality in our stock market people: this is an over reaction for the Oz economy IMO. Someone needs to tell them all to take a deep breath.
They should have a special prison to lock up all brokers up for a few days when they get out of control. Like keeping the cat inside so it doesn’t do any damage to the wildlife. Or make them start the day with a valium.
Yes, the stock market has fallen again today. Last Saturday I predicted that the market would have another losing week. The experts know what they are doing. If the market falls, there is a reason for it.
mr and mrs gusface and the little gusfaces in a home budgetting bit
not sure of exact time
You’d think the “experts” would have learned to stop calling the bottom, but every time there’s a gain there they are again.
Something I learned from The Daily Show – Four of the five biggest one day percentage gains in history all occurred during the Great Depression. So the stock market going up a few points for a day means absolutely nothing.
In related news: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24506554-12377,00.html
“PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd is set to appear in a TV special to give Australians advice about their financial problems and his $10.4 billion financial security package.
Minding Your Money: An Audience With the Prime Minister will air this Sunday on the Channel 7″
Oz, there are experts and there are experts. You have to be more right than the average more often. It’s like picking winners at the football or the races. You cannot be right all the time, only right more often than wrong.
“The Government has been under increasing pressure to release the economic details of its spending plan but will not do so until next month as part of its mid-year economic review.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2393314.htm?section=justin
What pressure? A few limp questions from an impotent opposition? Did Rat Man release the envelope for his Murray Darling rescue? I don’t think so.
While we are on MYEFO how many nfp (not for publication) were in the last one? How many billions of dollars out was it on the NT intervention?
How was Julie Bishop last night.
“If you remember back in 1992, when Keating introduced a stimulus package, he also gave a 750 page document detailing what lead him to this decision!”
I thought Keating was the evil pinko who left Australia with a debt (SHOCK HORROR) not the model of economic sensibility the Opposition seems to be portraying him as.
Opposition: “We hate Keating!”
Opposition: “Be more like Keating!”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24506554-12377,00.html
Rudd to feature in TV finance special
October 16, 2008
“PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd is set to appear in a TV special to give Australians advice about their financial problems and his $10.4 billion financial security package.
Minding Your Money: An Audience With the Prime Minister will air this Sunday on the Channel 7.
It will feature Mr Rudd answering questions from a studio audience of more than 100 people representing all walks of life from pensioners, first-home buyers, minimum-wage earners, families, employers and employees, Seven said.
“He spent more than $10 billion in one day to boost our economy and help families struggling to cope,” Seven said in a statement.
“Now the PM will respond to issues raised by Australians who have been directly affected.”
A last-minute money special with David Koch aired last Sunday, netting the network almost 1.5 million viewers.
The show featuring Mr Rudd will air at 6.30pm (AEDT). ”
Why isnt Malcolm Turnbull invited, he is the Opposition Leader and he is more of an expert on economic matters than Swan or Rudd??
“PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd is set to appear in a TV special to give Australians advice about their financial problems and his $10.4 billion financial security package.
No, no NO!
He’ll be on a hiding to nothing if they will really have him giving financial advice. Not only is he unqualified to do so, but AFAIK, he has never claimed to be psychic. With the speed that things are changing what may be excellent advice now could be very dumb tomorrow.
See #617?
“Why isnt Malcolm Turnbull invited, he is the Opposition Leader and he is more of an expert on economic matters than Swan or Rudd??”
Because he’s not the PM? And it’s not his package to explain? It’s also not a debate?
And what makes you think he’s an “expert” on economic matters? He’s a lawyer and an “investment banker”. That’s a far cry from being an “expert” in anything.
In fact, the way he’s handled himself and some of the statements he’s said, like “With the benefit of hindsight the Government should have acted earlier… they should have acted earlier” show he has NFI what he’s on about.
So is Pies Akerman quoting Julie Bishop or is Julie quoting Pies?
“When the last Labor prime minister Paul Keating released his first economic program, Working Nation, at the end of February 1992, the ambitious program was accompanied by enough tables and charts and graphs to gladden any bureaucratic heart…”
Predicting the bottom of the market today is about as difficult as predicting the Melbourne Cup winner before Saturday’s Caulfield Cup. If I had to make a prediction right now, I reckon the ASX will fall to as low as 3000.
Suncorp Metway are paying yearly dividends of $1.07 and have closed at $8.10 a share. They are not exposed as much to the global crisis and if weather patterns stabalise over the next couple of years and, more importantly, if the management shows us they are remotely worth what they are being paid, the stock possibly provides the most value in the finance sector of the market. But like predicting winners with anything, there are never guarantees.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/senate-calls-for-terror-law-review-20081014-50k5.html
“An independent expert should be appointed to continually review the 44 pieces of anti-terrorism legislation enacted since the September 11 attacks, a parliamentary committee has recommended.”
That bill was put forward by two Liberals. So they want to review there own legislation…? 7 years after they introduced it? And 6 of those years they were in Government? Bit weird.
Glen do you remember how Latham couldn’t even run the Liverpool City Council? Well Turnbull couldn’t even value FAI insurance. Would you seriously trust him with the Australian economy?
Turnbull = All Perception – No Substance
Glen, m’boy, you answered your own question.
The public don’t really give a fig about what Turnbull can do or say about the current economic situation. True, there’s plenty he can say, but nothing he can do.
He is not the co-Prime Minister, or the Deputy Grand Pooh-Bah or the Vice Chief Cook And Bottle Washer. He is the Leader of the Opposition, an Opposition which is poorly regarded by the country (if every poll since Rudd’s election is anything to go by).
Turnbull is good at straddling fences but little else.
Would it be fair to say that Malcolm B Turnbull is “all spin and no substance” ?
The Rudd on TV thing is probably the silliest idea I’ve heard in a long time. Who’s running Government strategy?
ltep
There was so much mis-information about the $10.4 billion package that it is a good idea that the PM clarifies things.
ABC online reported that the “Chrissy Presents” were going to “Single Aged Pensioners” and that carers would get $1000 just to name one bit of crud.
I have heard people complaining that they get family tax benefit B so they will miss out, when they cannot get B without first getting A. etc etc.
It is something the PM has to do, because the media cannot or will not do it properly.
And it has nothing to do with Turnbull, so he should sit down and shut up.
Itep, people feel to need reassured that our PM is fully aware, informed and on top of the crisis. As long as that opportunist Rainman keeps away, sweet.
Ruawake, Turnbull is all spin and all perception with absolutely no substance.
I know things are negative, but does the ABC TV News have to be so relentlessly miserable?
Still mourning for Work Choices
Rio Tinto was the most aggressive user of AWA’s
Rio Tinto spokesman Gervase Green said the company’s decision not to negotiate directly with unions had worked well.
“We’d prefer direct engagement with our workforce and have done so for 16 years.
“The benefit of that can be seen in the fact that up until last Saturday we had not lost one day in industrial disputes and that’s through lean times and good.
“To go through the CFMEU (Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union) is to differentiate between classes of workers … and we do not believe in differentiating between our workers,” Mr Green said.
The last comment is quite funny, we don’t differentiate but we want everyoneon an AWA.
Life of Brian “You are all individuals”
http://news.smh.com.au/business/rio-tinto-wont-negotiate-with-strikers-20081016-5293.html
Bushfire Bill, I look forward to an impartial ABC Board and less garbage from the national broadcaster.
Rio Tinto wrote “Work Choices” they employed Freehills to draft it. It cost the Liberals govt.
If they think that the Libs are going to help them in the current economic climate they have rocks in their heads.
Negotiate with the union members, they have no choice.
So, will the Rainmaker demand equal time on Channel 7? Gotta say, the Ruddster knows how to work the room, and I mean the whole room. And he’s never going to fall for the individual advice type thing, it’ll be all about how the package applies to them, Mayo.
I hope they go ahead with the idea to create a new channel dedicate to public affairs, big win for democracy.
Make a submission!
http://www.dbcde.gov.au/media_broadcasting/consultation_and_submissions/abc_sbs_review/make_a_submission
In a similar vein, Conroy announced that Socceroo’s matches will return to free-to-air TV in 2013, when the Foxtel contract runs out.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2393444.htm?section=justin
Actually, ruawake, you can turn a draft into pure evil with a bit more offering of just another wafer thin piece of what you really want to do to the working class. It worked.
John Clarke and Brian Dawe taking the piss out of the “Malcolm Turnbull’s idea” line both Turnbull and the media have been running.
Ahaha these guys have always been absolute geniuses. If you aren’t watching, you’re missing out.
“Trickle up effect”
One of the most annoying things about the Howard years was that you couldn’t watch any bit of news or listen to the radio without hearing him commenting, even if it was something completely unrelated to governance.
Why Rudd would want to overexpose his brand this early is beyond me.
Just wondering. Have any bludgers seen any of those poor, pet food eating, strippers, or otherwise badly done by pensioners who recently graced our tv screens thanking the heartless Mr. Rudd or the Government for what they are about to receive.
There probably so stunned about the fact that they have no flimsy argument to support to their conservative conduit, the Libs, that they’ve just kept their mouths shut.
Itep, I’m not sure why you think that a $10.4 billion stimulus package in the context of the global financial crisis is “completely unrelated to governance”.
I was referring to Howard’s appearance on news stories that covered just about everything… a story about apples? Get some footage of John Howard discussing the benefits of eating an apple a day… it was just irritating.
I have no real opinion on the ’stimulus package’.
What was this comment in relation to then:
“Why Rudd would want to overexpose his brand this early is beyond me.”? I assumed it was connected to the previous paragraph. My bad.
“Opposition demands McKew step down over contract ‘conflict’ ”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2393450.htm?section=justin
Except there was no contract conflict.
“Under the ministerial staff code of conduct, Ms Forrester was required to divest herself of any shareholdings related to Ms McKew’s responsibilities.”
Except the contracts referred to were not Max the Rat Slayer’s responsibility. They were Julia Gillard’s. Max works for PM&C not Education.
Pyne should not believe everything Michael Ronaldson “leaks” to journo’s related to State Liberal people in SA.
This is slightly off-topic, but I’ve just been reading Andrew “I am a degree in climate science and therefore know better than everyone else” Bolt’s blog and I’m wondering how much “professional” bloggers like him actually get paid?
enjaybee, what I have seen is a whole lot more whinging, along the lines of ‘it’s not enough’. I did a bit of a scout around most MSM sites earlier on out of interest, and, honestly, I’ve never seen so much whinging. I’ve no idea what these people are going to do when they need to use their own resources to live or survive. I think my worst nightmare is that the Oz population is now a bunch of whining, demanding, unrealistic, selfish and self-centred, developmentally stuck, consumers. With zero compassion for anyone else, to boot.
Nah, personally I just think it’s all the disgruntled Liberal voters still stinging after the election. They’re kicking up a stink at anything Rudd does, like much of the MSM. Fortunately the polls show that most people aren’t in that boat.
And remember, they’re pensioners. I still think the “Give us more money” as just an excuse to legitimise their support for the Liberals.
Hope you’re right, Dario, but FFS, they just go on endlessly. Agree about the polls, though. Just not moving for the Rainmaker,or the Coalition. Not going to either, in the short term, at least. The Rainmaker having the fundamental problem of being bound by party policies he doesn’t believe in, and having to espouse them. Not to mention being a pompous git.
Anyone who wastes one brain cell reading A Bolt’s lying garbage deserves to get early onset dementia.
I like HSO had a scout around other blogs too and the script for Lib trolls to push seems to be that the unemployed and students missed out and because of meany Rudd they are now all homeless & eating the pensioners dog food.
HSO @ 651. Lets face, it those that are still whinging are rusted on Rudd haters. However I think that there would be a good percentage of swinging pensioners (voting wise that is!) who would be grateful for the handout and would now see the Rudd government in a different light. Having said that though, the over 65’s have always been difficult for labour but maybe there is a now a chance for this group to be won over.
That’s a bit harsh… If I end up with dementia, I’ll be sure to blame you.
I dont think the markets will settle down until after Obama is elected. Our market is moving in sympathy with the US.
I think Rio Tinto is crying wolf inorder to keep BHP at bay.
I don’t think Obama’s election will have the slightest effect on the market. Unless you’re simply using his election as a timestap. Even then I think it’s going to take more than a couple of weeks.
I think we better get this straight. In no way is Turnbull an authority on economics or finance. And the only time he had to make an important determination he made a massive stuff up which had nasty consequences. I suspect Turnbull’s economic/finance abilities and understanding are mostly limited to how to push various bits of paper around the ASX to make money. But, making money in a continual booming market is not that hard, if you have money to start with.
I doubt that Rudd will give any specific advice at all and will deal in generalities and might talk on the government’s policy attitude to some things. Or he may have received specific questions which he has run past the experts in Treasury to provide some qualified answers.
And why would Turnbull be invited? Who is he? This not election time and this is not politicking. And who would care what the Opposition had to say? They have no power to do anything and have no intrinsic understanding on governments attitude to things finance.
In 1932 the biggest and most frightening crash took place after FDR was elected in November but before he was inaugurated in March. That’s why the inauguration date was brought forward to January from 1936. When FDR took office he immediately announced the “bank holiday” and made his “fear itself” speech, which stemmed the collapse in confidence. The power vacuum between November and January might be a dangerous time in 2008-09 as well.
I think the power vacuum up to November has not been that helpful either. Not convinced there will not be one after January either.
Enough with the Turnbull understands business bull.
Turnbull was a journalist, a lawyer and a banker. None of those professions produces anything, they merely feed off the enterprise of others.
As for matters relating to the stockmarket and business conditions in general, never listen to anyone who talks out of their pocket or out of their backside. At the moment there’s plenty of both and many of them are in the media.
If Rudd performs as well on his Channel 7 gig as he did on the 1st Q&A program, then watch the next lot of polls take a nice little jump,
Turnbull & the Libs won’t have anything that can counter this and I bet at this moment they are wondering just what they have to do to nail him down and get some traction.
Wonder if Turnbull will give Japan a ring and berate them for being too slow?
“Japan’s parliament has enacted an $US18 billion ($A28 billion) emergency spending plan to stimulate Asia’s largest economy as fears of a recession grow.”
http://news.smh.com.au/world/japanese-parliament-passes-stimulus-plan-20081016-52ch.html
Damn1 I got the devils number “aqain”.
vera,
Rudd might be slow by Turnbull’s standards, but he has proved to be quicker than the 2nd most important economy in the world. Not quite sure what is happening in the US at the moment, the worlds biggest economy.
By my standards though, he is doing all right so far.
Turnbull is going to be slightly miffed at missing out on this little get together too.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24506987-462,00.html
enjaybee, as you say they’re rusted on Coalition voters. Not sure there are any or sufficiently many of them to make a difference in terms of votes, nor am I convinced that this is what it was about.
Let’s just clarify some massive misconceptions about the stock market. Stock market analysis is based on opinion about the performance of a company and future conditions and circumstances which may affect that performance.
It can be compared to opinions of tipsters relating to horse racing or football. The better the judgement, the greater the chance of success. People do not always agree. In volatile times such as we are experiencing with this global crisis, it is completely expected and normal that the market will act in a volatile way accordingly.
Of course, Rudd is all spin and no substance, hasn’t done anything since the election and all he seems to do is form committees to investigate things.
Far better than scribbling on the back of envelopes or lying back in a hummock.
scorpio, he’ll probably demand equal time. Sniggle.
Scorpio so do we call him Superainman now?
he’ll be bitching he didn’t get an invite to these talks next i suppose.
“Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says he will talk to the nation’s business leaders tomorrow about new ways to tackle the global financial crisis.
He will talk to about 100 business and industry leaders tomorrow in Sydney about what else can be done.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2393409.htm
Rudd is simply the PM of the country and Leader of the government doing his job and, has come across world economic hell and doing what the PM should do.
The media ought to see it like that instead of always trying to make everything a political issue of competition between the government and the Opposition. The should put this flag waving Liberal party cheer leading and simply get behind the government of the day and inform the people as they should be informed.
Lets be honest, there’s been a power vacuum in the US since the mid-terms in 2006
“Damn1 I got the devils number “aqain”.”
muhahaha
Scorpio @ 670 you beat me to it, just posted same thing but it’s being moderated
“Stock market analysis is based on opinion about the performance of a company”
Then the analysis will always be wrong since stock prices are based on whether the stock price will go up or down, not necessarily related to the performance of the company. There’s the disconnect between “business” and “finance”. Investors invest in companies because they see growth opportunities for that company. Stock brokers buy stock because they think the stock price is going to go up, for whatever reason. There’s a subtle difference.
And yes, the stock price is far more disconnected from the actual performance of a business in most cases than most think. The “volatility” point has some traction but it doesn’t explain significant variations between price on an hourly basis even during normal market times. Business’ do not release performance results upon the hour.
It matters not if the Treasurer or PM or whoever is an expert in a particular field – you would hope they always make their decisions based on expert advice and data rather than rely on their own ‘expertise’.
Absolutely Dario (676), but not just in the US. This has been the whole problem with tee bail-out. Weak governments and nervous financial markets do not mix.
In a fit of curiosity, went and had a look at the outtakes of Aggro. Now if we had Aggro on the ABC Board, Bushfire Bill for sure and BillBowe, what might happen?
re 679.
Relating to your first paragraph, Stocks are valued. Future price movements are factored into that valuation. Re read my 672.
As for your second paragraph… variations between price and a release of business performance. I’m not even going to go there.
TPS @681. Told you yesterday, it’s really, really bad, in global financials. It hasn’t rained in Victoria, or most of it for the last 3 months. We’ll need a desalination plant pretty much as soon as it can be built, or we won’t have enough water to drink. It is that bad. Sorry, but the prognosis is truly terrible.
Harry, if I could, I would send you a bit of this just coming through my area now.
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR233.loop.shtml
enjaybee @ 645-
Just wondering. Have any bludgers seen any of those poor, pet food eating, strippers, or otherwise badly done by pensioners who recently graced our tv screens thanking the heartless Mr. Rudd or the Government for what they are about to receive.
Never mind what there are about to receive, they have already received $27/week (singles) so far this year at a cost of $7.5bill. and I haven’t heard much, if anything, in the way of acknowledgement let alone thanks, mostly just even more shrill whinging.
Dario @ 676 -
Lets be honest, there’s been a power vacuum in the US since the mid-terms in 2006
If you want to be really honest, there’s been a vacuum of epic proportions within the Oval Office since 2001. Mostly, between the ears of the incumbent!
Turnbull gets on Rudd CEO pay bandwagon:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2393522.htm
Of course if you read the blogs, the Rudd Government is very slow to react to events.
Not so the punters thoughh.
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24504122-5013951,00.html
Kevin Rudd look-a-like on Lateline reckons we’ll still have decent growth. German government says they’re in recession.
Mac Bank predicts rates to fall to 4.25%
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24506803-643,00.html
And the futures market? Yep still predicting a drop next month:
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
But… but… Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull said Kevin Rudd’s splurge will stop rates falling. Oh wait, so sorry, they would’ve fallen by more! The man is such a genius. All praise Malcolm.
Anyone care to comment?
Zero interest rate a possibility
http://business.smh.com.au/business/zero-interest-rate-a-possibility-20081016-524u.html
Depends which blogs of course scorpio
On next Insiders
“Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull on the Government’s response to the financial crisis. Also, results of the ACT election and NSW by-elections.?
TP
Rates will ALWAYS be lower under a Coalition Govt!
Thanks vera, I will sleep in on Sunday.
Here is a useful graph of economic growth in Australia. Clearly we are headed for a slowdown, though the stimulus will hopefully stop it going negative. Note that the economy had already peaked and was starting down at the time of our November 2007 election.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-Growth.aspx?Symbol=AUD
By comparison (you can check other countries on the same site) Germany and UK were already in recession prior to the past weeks market turmoil. So we are still in comparatively good shape.
#692
One economics professor is attempting to predict the rate in 2010… Since no economists or analysts have been able to predict events on a day by day basis, I wouldn’t put too much fath in long term predictions.
Centre, either that or have a sick bag ready
I’d say the chances of 0% interest rates in Australia are 0%
That’s a great site! Nice find
I’m going to go out on a limb and say nope.
BUt the fact that it is even being mentioned, pretty much destroys Turnbull’s “economic concerns” (of course! He’s a concern troll!)
Yes, I note your concern Malcolm…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24495260-601,00.html
If Turnbull were a blogger, he would be one here writing:
“I’ve been an ALP supporter all my life, and I have to say it is good that Kevin Rudd is FINALLY doing something other than holding review after review, and I think the $10b is need, but you have to wonder what this will do to interest rates.
Surely he should be thinking about struggling workers paying mortgages. Great that he is FINALLY helping pensioners and carers, but why did it take so long for him to do something???? I have to wonder at times whether he is really a true ALP PM… If only Lindsay Tanner were Treasurer. Wayne Swan is so nervous, I don’t think he’s up to the job.”
Hopefully the NSW by-election results will be balanced out by the ACT election. If there’s anything worse that NSW State Labor, it’s the NSW State Liberal and National parties.
Grog,
I was referring to News Ltd and ABC bloge in particular. PB and Possum’s are of course an exception barring a few suspects who shall remain nameless.
They know who I am talking about though.
TP 692
I think thats pretty optimistic (0% interest rates). Of course, this relates to official interest rates – what the government loans money to banks at. We will never get 0% interest from a bank ourselves.
Either way, this all underlines how silly (and inappropriately alarming) the coments of Turnbull and others about the dangers of high interest rates and inflation were earlier in the week. Those worries are completely off the agenda now. Provoking fear only increase the risk that the stimulus package will not do enough to increase confidence. Be alert but not alarmed. The coalition should know the words to use, if they cared about the national interest.
Some kind of fusion of Tanner and Albanese would be the perfect Treasurer. Tanner knows how to break down economic information and is extremely well-spoken and confident. Albanese comes up with classic lines like “The Merchant of Venice”.
704 I’m with you scorpio. Wasn’t having a go at you – more a comment on the better judgement of bludgers to other unamed blogs.
Btw if people weren’t aware, Switzerland’s two biggest banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, are the latest to require emergency funding from the Government.
Central banks are pumping liquidity into Hungary and Ukraine. Shows how completely off the people calling “the bottom” were. It hasn’t bottomed out, it’s spreading.
I think it is very possible that interest rates could fall to zero. Their is so much debt, America 18 months ago had house prices seven times the rate of incomes now it is three times thus it takes three average yearly incomes to buy a house. Australia has seven times at present and this will collapse and once it does it will have a mulitplier effect… Think of all that investment housing negatively geared at exorbirant prices, hence those people if they have large investments to pay will be in trouble because rents will also fall, due to competition and prices…. Sorry the Mr Richardson from Access Economics still does not get it.. Does he understand the amount of private debt we have… fewer jobs, less money and possibly people foreclosing on debt hence the banks may some debts to handle hence as the asset prices falll they get less funds from the assets they own.. And the householder well they will be living on street.
The slowdown is dangerous and will worsen… Nonetheless it will not be depression because our economies, people and politicians are little bit more intelligent and have far more advanced social welfare policies. However their will be a alot of pain.
And Vera sit down and have a bex because you really are silly.
Where are governments of the world getting their money.
Nonetheless government borrowing is far more cheaper than private borrowing and i want to see much much more of it.
Is this the program?
Turnbull? FFS.
No need to set the alram.
Yes UBS and Credit Suisse announced some of the largest losses earlier in the year. around $8B US for UBS I think. I thought it might have been getting close to bottom in the financial markets, but clearly I was wrong. I suppose one of the difficulties in forecasting this crisis is that there is a lack of data – the CDS/CDO market was set up to avoid normal reporting so we just don’t kow how much bad assets the banks are holding! They aren’t telling either. When you think about it, a drying up of credit flows between banks basically means that banks don’t trust banks!
That being said, I still think the apocalyptic language people are using is unrealistic and harmful. First there is no inherent reason why the rest of the world (outside the US) has to go into recession. Second, there is a lot of “herd instinct” in economics, so pessemistic predictions can be a self-fulfilling prophesy and vice versa. From irrational exuberance to irrational reticence!
Grog @ 707,
Yeah, I knew that. I just wanted to clarify the reasonable, knowledgeable and well informed posters at PB including your good self. lol
Marky marky, a name like that and you call me silly, At least I am a Labor voter not a concern troll like you.
OZ 703
Centrebet seem to think Ryde will be only loss and we were told last weekend of 20% swing there so no surprises.
Cabramatta By-Election -
LABOR 1.05
LIBERAL 9.00
Lakemba By-Election
LABOR 1.02
LIBERAL 12.00
Port Macquarie By-Election
NATIONAL 1.50
BESSELING, Peter (IND) 2.47
INTEMANN, Lisa (IND) 7.50
ANY OTHER CANDIDATE 21.00
Ryde By-Election
LABOR 2.28
LIBERAL 1.60
Australian Capital Territory Election
LABOR 1.19
LIBERAL 4.35
Economist on Lateline Business – Inflation is not an issue.
marky marky – There’s a point I’ve been trying to make for quite some time in this thread but it still doesn’t seem to have sunk in. Regardless of the relative costs of house prices in the US and Australia, comparisons are silly. The US had ridiculously low interest rates meaning credit was easy to get, the banks lended money to people who couldn’t afford it, increasing the chance of defaults, and there was a huge oversupply of housing.
On the other hand, in Australia we have moderately interest rates, well regulated banks with decent standards (ie no subprime) and an undersupply of houses. These things are going to put a pretty hard floor on our house prices.
Did you read that bloggers Vera a Labor Voter, like most conservatives you seem to kidding us.
This might have something to do with the pessimism evident in the markets over the past couple of days. Maybe the punters are better informed than we give credit to.
NEW YORK: Even as the U.S. government and its counterparts around the world readied an ambitious financial bailout, more signs emerged on Wednesday that the economic downturn had taken a darker turn in the United States.
Retail sales fell sharply in September as consumers shunned department stores, auto showrooms and shopping malls, ratcheting back spending for a third month. Economic activity slowed, according to a report from the Federal Reserve. And the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, warned in a speech that a recovery “will not happen right away.”
Each bleak economic report compounded on the last, and by the end of the day the Dow Jones industrial average had fallen 733 points. Many investors fear that corporations — and by extension their workers and shareholders — will face harder times.]
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/15/business/usecon.php
Wow Peter has good odds in PM. I worked with him and Rob for a short time, awesome bloke.
Lisa Intemann is third? Suprising.
Without getitng into the middle of a blogwar, I always thought she was – she’s been ripping into Turnbull tonight
Oz the undersupply of houses has not increased prices and besides their was never an undersupply- a line from conservatives- house prices increased due to demand pressures such as the stupid grants measures and negative gearing. And yes the banks are well regulated but they were still making people borrow, thus i would as house owner ( don’t mean spruik) get phone calls possibly one every fortnight to borrow on my equity and it was banks who would ring me and why because of the bonuses paid to banking staff to get more loans… And then their are those credit cards which people can get.. and have used to buy plasma tvs and cars and furniture and renovations to homes…
{our economies, people and politicians are little bit more intelligent and have far more advanced social welfare policies.]
MM, the people of Australia made a “wise” decision on November 24 last year.
Marky marky no need to go through other bloggers for support, don’t be scared you can talk directly to me
Marky, off silly beggers like us.
Grow up Vera.
Correct Scorpio, but they cannot make up all those borrowings at one time. And at present all governments everywhere are trying to get funds and what they are finding that like Mother Hubbard the cupboard is bare…
Marky, you are quite wrong on this. The increase in immigration levels in the past 7 years or so by Howard has meant that there has been an increase of 100,000 extra dwellings per year just to meet this need without the extra demand by an increasing birth rate over the past few years (natural population increase).
In addition to this the tax breaks and Capital Gains breaks which have encouraged so many people to move into the investment property market, but generally into existing homes has meant that new property investment has lagged far behind what is necessary to satisfy market requirements.
marky marky in your post you accept the law of supply and demand so why say this:
“the undersupply of houses has not increased prices”?
Lack of supply obviously increases prices. You would be the only person arguing to opposite.
“their was never an undersupply”
Where do you live…?
bullies don’t like being confronted do they Marky. if you are going to start making snide comments to me and then gutlessly about me and then start giving me orders don’t expect me to sit quietly and cop it.
Scorpio is right – we are not building houses fst enough to match population growth. Australia’s population growth rate is one of the highest in the OECD. Here in Adelaide about 8000 homes were built last year. We neede about 7000/year just to replace old housing stock. Add in 1.0% population growth and we need about 4000 houses a year just to match demand. Hence prices stay high.
I think Vera and Marky have made their feelings clear – can we move on now please.
Hmmm an interest only loan at 0% the stuff of dreams.
If rates get near that low people wont be keeping their cash rotting away in banks and will want to start investing. I guess that is the idea.
I agree with the law of economics thesis. But in this case supply has not in my view increased prices. For rental properties yes.. So i suppose in the rental market for investment properties their has been an undersupply. But for new homes no.
Here in Melbourne homes are being built everywhere in our outer sububs but people cannot afford to live in this areas because they are to far away. Hence they live in the inner suburbs where yes their is a undersupply where prices have increased but they have also increased because of infrastructure and services which in our outer sububs is not existent. i suppose i got my argument wrong or mssplaced by suggesting only demand took of- admittedly stupid me should have said that demand took off and it created a lack of supply… Which you are all correct… But in Melbourne the government was building significant amounts of new housing to meet the expectations…
Yep can;t make money on my shares or in a bank.. What then horses or pokies — ah gold gold gold and of course government bonds…
I thought we already had 0% interest rates. That’s pretty much what I get on my bank account. Then they take fees which means my return is negative. It’s not the stuff of dreams.
Night all and sorry Willam suppose i am the one who needs the bex.
Change banks!
Which bank?
Rudd’s not the only leader concerned about outrageous renumeration packages for company executives and golden parachute arrangements even when companies fail.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/10/16/europe/EU-Meltdown-Golden-Parachutes.php
732
Marky, this theory would be OK if those outer suburban houses weren’t being lived in. They obviously are.
The undersupply problem isn’t only in inner city Melbourne but across the State.
The difficulties in the rental market are directly related to the undersupply of housing; many renters are potential buyers, who at present can’t afford a house.
Victoria is growing at a rate unmatched by any time since the gold rushes. This obviously puts strains on both housing and infrastructure.
So your post is incorrect; there is an undersupply of houses in Victoria.
One aspect of the housing shortage which isn’t discussed much is the dramatic increase in single member households – pensioners, divorcees, etc. So where once a 3 bedroom home might house five people, the equivalent house today might only have one. This creates another strain on housing supply.
Although this is not new news…
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,24509141-5016110,00.html
it got me wondering about the phrasing, in particular, “…debt-laden consumers will close their wallets”.
If interest rates go down, these consumers won’t be as debt-laden as they might have been. Expand “consumers” to “mortgagees” and, just considering their mortgages, they’ll actually be in a great position to make some more progress on their mortgages with lower interest rates, wouldn’t they? Comparing their positions between February’s rate rise and their position after large interest rate decreases, say by next year, and it’s a lot better next year.
So why would they suddenly stop spending? Isn’t the idea that low interest rates lead to a splurge in spending? Or will they be cutting back their spending because they’ve learnt their lesson as a result of this year’s RBA rises and the anti-inflation rhetoric of Rudd and Swan earlier in the year?
I guess what I am asking is: have long term patterns of credit bingeing stopped and are we getting more sensible? Have the government’s and the RBA’s policies advocating conservative spending habits actually worked? Did people get such a big fright from the interest rate rises that they have finally got the message?
And is this not a good thing?
In the light of Turnbull’s claim that the government and the RBA got it wrong by talking up inflation, articles like this suggest precisely the opposite: that the government got it exactly right, and just in time too (they couldn’t have acted any sooner than November 2007 in any case). The problem was that we spending money we didn’t have, which was both inflationary and plain stupid (and was also based on false optimism, as we can certainly see now). The solution was for the RBA to raise interest rates and for the government to hammer over-spending at every opportunity. The meltdown has accellerated the process, for sure, but I can see that this lesson needed to be learnt, and learnt hard, and I believe it has been. The new atmosphere of fiscal rectitude is exactly what we need now to survive, and we had it dished out to us totally appropriately. Turnbull is wrong.
Hey Bushfire!… guess what?
Kev has another test! lol
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24507854-17301,00.html
BB
Guys like Macquarie execs are precisely some of those most in the firing line from the market fall and seeing the world from their own (risky) point of view. This analysis is far too pessemistic. If interest rates fell to zero % (not going to happen) then the “debt laden” consumers won’t have any repayments, so why wouldn’t they spend??!! No doubt our next quarterly account figures will show a drop in spending, but this isn’t the 1930s.
BB
Sorry I missed a critical paragraph of your post when I responded. Suffice to say we agree.
I stik to my first point – Macquarie execs are some of the biggest losers from this, so they are runnign around panic stricken. But those of us with normal (productive) jobs are quite safe.
Not sure whether to say “thanks” for that dose of verbal castor oil from Shanahan, SpamB, or damn your eyes.
What outrageous twaddle. The poor bugger is so blinded by his hatred and confused by those little pieces of paper he has on his desk he’s become incoherent.
Lete’s see here’s one piece of paper with:
scribbled on it. Although Dennis agrees with the plan, on the whole, it’s always a goodie to pull out of the shoebox when a bit of Labor-bashing is called for. Anyway, it’s all about nuance, and Dennis is a nuance man, hence the…
piece of paper is produced, smoothed out and placed on Dennis’ desk, along with that old chestnut (always guaranteed to get the conservative juices flowing
especially when uttered in the context of a Labor government (little matter that every other bloody government in the world is doing roughly the same thing). Shannas must have lost the “Whitlam” card, because he didn’t produce it this time. Must have used it for toilet paper.
Here’s anothery:
Get the picture? The Battlers are going to go out and buy plasma TVs so they can watch old (and presumably crappy) Xmas re-runs. Not only are they wasting taxpayers’ money, doing something or other with it up against a wall somewhere (as Barnarby hinted), but they’re not even watching anything decent on them as they do! Presumably these would be new plasmas, that is, they’d be the “Full Hi-Definition” updates replacing the old ones bought with Johnny Howard’s Baby Bonus, pension handouts, one-off pork-barrel extravaganzas and profligate tax-cuts. But we come not to bury Howard, we’re here to kick Rudd in the nuts. See him squirm!
Finally (but not exhaustively) we have this triumphant conclusion, where all those little pieces of paper take on an almost supernatural arrangement of their own, Ouji board style:
Gee, c’mon Bludgers, one guess as to who that’d be.
Incidentally, as Dennis is reputed to have a whole bunch of kids, I wonder whether he’ll be sending the cheque back. I mean, according to him, he’d only piss it up against the wall.
Turnbull has just been interviewed on local ABC radio here. The last question was about his most gullible moment. He agreed there probably was a few occasions when he had been dudded, but couldn’t off hand recall one.
Strange how he couldn’t remember the $10,000,000 to the rainmaker. It wasn’t that long ago. Almost exactly a year. So, can’t he remember because, to him, $10,000,00 is such an insignificant amount, especially as it wasn’t his money, or a sign of early-onset Alzheimer’s?
William@730
Sorry about that Chief
Turnbull;s just been on Sky with Spears
Reminds me of how the Liberals are always claiming credit for “paying off Labor’s 96 billion dollar debt”. (Yawn). It wasn’t their money that paid it off. They were just carrying out the job we paid them to do.
Speaking of BS, I saw a story in the Oz this morning (sorry my eyes are burning) that business leaders are already trying to back away from restrictions on exec pay. What self-serving garbage! They are pulling the oldest trick in the sophistry book – reversing the burden of proof. In other words, there is no evidence that exec pay in Australia has caused this mess, so why restrict it? It should be the other way around. Exec pay is far more tahn for any other occupation. The average ASX top 100 executive couldn’t afford the cut in pay to become Prime Minister, or a High Court Judge (or even world head of Toyota!!). The onus should be on them to prove that they deserve those huge pay packets. They can’t of course. As I said previously, the only empirical studies I have seen show that the correlation is negative – the higher the exec pay, the worse performing the company.
The justification for a restriction on exec pay for banks is clear: if they benefit from a government guarantee on deposits, then the government is entitled to put restrictions on it. The fact that it will benefit the shareholders they supposedly serve, should make them happy to accept it, if they were not merely sef-serving careerists with no umpire on their own excesses.
The editorial in the SMH today was extremely against the idea of restricting enormous payouts and linking them to capital adequacy (Something like that?).
The argument was essentially “It will create a brain drain”. Good, who cares. Let the greedy execs run away to countries that reward greed and let us have executives who care about something other than their own bonuses.
I wonder what the performance difference would be between someone you paid $1m and $30m ?
]…let us have executives who care about something other than their own bonuses.]
Yes, given the lack of success they’ve had it might be time for some of the less ambitious – the more willing to take a humble million than tens of millions – to get the gongs for CEO jobs.
I saw somewhere yesterday a line in an article that read “There is no evidence that paying execus huge salaries caused these (banks) to go bust.”
This misstates the point: there is little evidence to show that paying them huge dollars kept the banks viable.
The other issue that seems to be getting lost in the debate, at least in the media, is that it’s not like these guys are getting tens of millions just when everything is going peachy. They get it then, and they get it when their companies are ‘rationalising, laying off staff, putting their employees on pathetic contracts and gouging their customers.
Morgan Poll
http://www.roymorgan.com/
summary of roy morgan
no change despite global financial meltdown
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
The brain drain argument is rubbish. There is no evidence that these people will leave if you pay them less. (Why not test the hypothesis anyway?) Nor is there evidence that the best people move countries for more money. The best execs are usually promoted from within by companies with good staff development programs.
You may pay them less but you certainly won’t be paying them badly. If they choose to run off to another country to be paid through-the-roof amounts then we don’t need them. Greed should not be rewarded.
Further to my 755, consider the most succesful CEOs from non-finance companies in Oz in recent years – the heads of BHPB and Rio Tinto. They were promoted from within. Being CEO of BHPB or Rio Tinto remains a coveted prize within the mining industry with no shortage of good quality applicants. Same is true for banks.
Meanwhile look at the quaity of oveseas CEOs we have attracted with large pay here. Consider Sol Trujillo (Telstra) or Trumbull (AMP). Both were high pay, high profile and caused share value losses.
In fact, we are a very high payer of CEO salaries by world standards, out of proportion to the size of our economy. CEO pay here is higher than in Japan, France or Germany. The US and UK pay more, but those are acknowledged as problematic.
Quite clearly people are linking Australia’s present and future problems with the international scene.
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence – 89.5 (down 4.7 points in a week);
Now 49% of Australians expect “bad times” over next 12 months
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/804/
New thread.