A new swing state has come on to the radar courtesy of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which has conducted a poll of 606 voters in North Dakota showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 per cent to 43 per cent. That might not be much to go on – the state was last surveyed a month ago by Rasmussen, who had McCain leading 53 per cent to 40 per cent – but it’s enough to put it in the Obama column for purposes of my own polling aggregate methodology. As explained in previous posts, this involves using all the polling going back to October 1 or as much of it as is necessary to produce a sample of over 3000, with each poll weighted according to its sample and adjusted according to the shift in the Real Clear Politics national poll average since the day it was conducted. Note that McCain remains curiously competitive in Ohio.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.2 | 38.1 | 3196 | 17 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.2 | 39.2 | 3680 | 21 | |
| Iowa | 54.4 | 40.7 | 692 | 7 | |
| Washington | 54.3 | 41.8 | 1244 | 11 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.0 | 41.2 | 4923 | 10 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.0 | 42.5 | 2760 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 50.2 | 43.0 | 3195 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 49.4 | 42.4 | 2427 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 51.2 | 44.7 | 4281 | 9 | |
| Maine | 51.5 | 45.9 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 49.5 | 45.5 | 3599 | 5 | |
| West Virginia | 48.6 | 45.0 | 1122 | 5 | |
| Florida | 49.1 | 47.0 | 3530 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.0 | 45.9 | 3574 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.0 | 47.6 | 4018 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.1 | 44.0 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Virginia | 48.1 | 47.8 | 3811 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 47.2 | 49.1 | 3151 | 20 | |
| Indiana | 45.2 | 48.3 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 155 |
| RCP/Total | 49.5 | 43.2 | - | 352 | 186 |
505 Comments
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As opposed to rich Cindy lol, good luck with that!
Yep, and I’m sure they wouldn’t mind as long as he wins
Adam – the youtube was very funny
Deary dear me.
Would Michelle Obama really need TWO lobsters by herself? I thought that was a bit suspicious. So I did a bit of checking. The docket from the Waldorf is dated 15/10 at 4pm.
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/18/a-little-snack-for-michelle-obama/
Michelle Obama was in Fort Wayne Indiana campaigning at 1pm on the 15/10.
I will say no more. But quite a bit comes to mind. Let’s wait and see how the facts come out on this one.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/rickscalf/gGgb9Y
Dio @ 503,
Sounds like someone is doing their homework, good on you
……. I couldn’t eat two lobsters all by myself 
…..
Don’t think that by the time that the polls open on Election Day that there will be any rock left unturned by the Republicans. Problem is that they aren’t turning anything up by trying. Perhaps the best we can hope for is that the Republicans themselves crawl back under those rocks and get out of our life
……
New thread.
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