A new swing state has come on to the radar courtesy of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which has conducted a poll of 606 voters in North Dakota showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 per cent to 43 per cent. That might not be much to go on – the state was last surveyed a month ago by Rasmussen, who had McCain leading 53 per cent to 40 per cent – but it’s enough to put it in the Obama column for purposes of my own polling aggregate methodology. As explained in previous posts, this involves using all the polling going back to October 1 or as much of it as is necessary to produce a sample of over 3000, with each poll weighted according to its sample and adjusted according to the shift in the Real Clear Politics national poll average since the day it was conducted. Note that McCain remains curiously competitive in Ohio.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.2 | 38.1 | 3196 | 17 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.2 | 39.2 | 3680 | 21 | |
| Iowa | 54.4 | 40.7 | 692 | 7 | |
| Washington | 54.3 | 41.8 | 1244 | 11 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.0 | 41.2 | 4923 | 10 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.0 | 42.5 | 2760 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 50.2 | 43.0 | 3195 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 49.4 | 42.4 | 2427 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 51.2 | 44.7 | 4281 | 9 | |
| Maine | 51.5 | 45.9 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 49.5 | 45.5 | 3599 | 5 | |
| West Virginia | 48.6 | 45.0 | 1122 | 5 | |
| Florida | 49.1 | 47.0 | 3530 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.0 | 45.9 | 3574 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.0 | 47.6 | 4018 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.1 | 44.0 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Virginia | 48.1 | 47.8 | 3811 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 47.2 | 49.1 | 3151 | 20 | |
| Indiana | 45.2 | 48.3 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 155 |
| RCP/Total | 49.5 | 43.2 | - | 352 | 186 |
505 Comments
Cf: Ohio, William have a look at: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a98f6f52-fb6d-4800-9f4e-d55dcb6589f2
sample of 700 but Obama ahead of McCain 50%-45% in Ohio
Adam and other HC fans,
cut and paste of two reasons
Think with the second one I mentioned that Obama is channeling Kevin
…..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-c-rose/fourteen-changes-barack-o_b_134458.html
Oh Dear
“McCain Transition Chief Aided Saddam”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html
The 3rd debate seems to be McCain’s last chance. Watching him argue with the maddies amongst his own supporters it is easy to recall why he was an outsider in his own party for so many years. And still is. Probably would have disappeared off the heartlands radar without Palin. Sad reflection on Republican Party politics and its dominance by the religious and rural right. Anyway he deserves to be judged by the company he keeps.
Juliem @ 2,
As a Clintonista, I find that slightly depressing. It’s a shame that the Americans aren’t going to elect the best person to lead their country (IMHO) in this time of financial crisis.
However, I take comfort from the fact that they look set to elect the second-best person (Obama) and not the third-best (McCain). All of the other contenders in the primary campaigns (from both parties) were a bunch of hacks…
Some shifts in the RCP Electoral Map:
Colorado shifts from Toss-up to Leaning Obama
Michigan shifts from Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Wisconscin shifts from Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Obama is now up 313-158, with 67 (OH, IN, MO, WV, NV and NC) still toss-ups.
Clinton has to say that at the moment, otherwise it raises the prospect that she wants Obama to lose so she can run in 2012. She’s making a concession to the Party that they are all on the same team for this election.
If he does somehow lose, it’d be a good bet she’ll be back and more determined than ever, though.
Are these polls in swing states ever going to stabilise? I’ve been expecting them to level off at some stage, but day after day they just seem to keep moving Obama’s way.
It’s very hard to see what he can do differently. If he is aggressive or dramatically changes his tone, he’ll seem slightly crazy and erratic. If he does more of the same, he’ll seem uninspired and without answers.
Obama just needs to play the last debate with a very straight bat. As a few people have said, this election looks more and more like it’s out of McCain’s hands (i.e. only Obama can stuff it up).
Obama now up 8.1 on the RCP National Average, due to a CBS/NYT poll showing him up by 14 points (!!!) over McCain.
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/oct08b-politics.pdf
This is a bigger margin than Bush I’s final winning margin over Dukakis in 1988. McCain’s got a long way to go to get close to Obama now…
Sigh, Paul Kelly.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24497984-12250,00.html
Apparently Rudd “needed” this economic crisis to “save his political credentials and reputation”. Now that’s a claim one can make about Gordon Brown, but unlike Gordon Brown, Rudd did not need “saving”.
The right-wing media seems hell-bent on giving off this image that people somehow hate Rudd even though all the polls say the exact opposite.
Oh crap wrong thread.
Ignore #12.
No way! I thought she was going to divorce Bill, marry Barack, and become first lady again! (Assuming OBama wins)
Obama has hit 80% chance of winning on Intrade. According to fivethirtyeight, the Democrats now have a 30% chance of winning 60 Senate seats (however, it looks like Lieberman is going to become a Republican after the election).
Let me guess, there has been a PARADIGM shift away from FOLLY?
They seem to be Kelly’s favourite words. I’m sure he could’ve used them in the same sentence in the current economic environment.
Yeah, but Hillary would be up by 32.4%
Now let me get my Kevin Bacon hat out… according to the rabid right, Iraq was involved in 911, or at least with terrorists, and Saddam led Iraq, and McCain’s transition chief was convicted of aiding Saddam, who is now working for McCain, so MCCAIN PALS AROUND WITH TERRORISTS!!!!!
I love this game
She current is! In the 9th, 10th, and 11th dimensions.
This is how I know the McCain campaign is a mess. There are three weeks to election day, and Palin is palining around with Rush Limbaugh, i.e. preaching to the converted on conservative talk radio:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/palin-ive-got-nothing-to_n_134632.html
Surely if they want to win this they need to be appealing to centrists, moderates, uncommitted and independent voters. I doubt you can appeal to them by going on conservative radio stations.
Unless they’re trying to do what I think they’re trying to do – work hard to make sure their base turns up to vote and hope that enough of Obama’s base don’t.
That’s the strategy they used (with considerable success) in 2004
Except in 2004 the Dems had Kerry, with the charisma of a limp lettuce leaf
With Obama’s charisma comes a handful of perceived negatives as well – his “race”, his “inexperience” etc.
Couldn’t be worse than Kerry, and isn’t judging from the polls
Interview with the lady who called Obama an “Arab”
“he’s still got Muslim in him”!?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-uptake/mccain-responds-to-arab-a_b_133820.html
Like she was ever going to vote anything other than Republican
“he’s still got Muslim in him”
Nothing a little ethnic enema or exorcism couldn’t fix!
(Then she’d vote for him for sure.)
She’ll do a write in vote for Sarah Palin.
Oh sorry, I should have added that she would have DEFINITELY voted for Hillary
They’ve finally admitted it: the US is (officially) in recession:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/us-slips-into-recession-20081015-5157.html
Its about time! I have been suggesting this fact grumpily for almost a year. Only dubious reporting of very large fictitious financial assets by Wall Street prevented the US from being reported as in a recession probably from the first quarter this year.
Acorn-gate…….Wall Street journal 14/10/08
Acorn is a US community agitiating for ‘left’ issues It also functions to get voters to register as Democrat voters
” Acorn is spending $16 million this year to register new Democrats and is already boasting it has put 1.3 million new voters on the rolls. The big question is how many of these registrations are real.
(Both Democrat & Republican State Governments administrations hav charged this organization)
Earlier this month, Nevada’s Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller requested a raid on Acorn’s offices, following complaints of false names and fictional addresses (including the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys). Nevada’s Clark County Registrar of Voters Larry Lomax said he saw rampant fraud in 2,000 to 3,000 applications Acorn submitted weekly.
Then there’s Lake County, Indiana, which has already found more than 2,100 bogus applications among the 5,000 Acorn dumped right before the deadline. “All the signatures looked exactly the same,” said Ruthann Hoagland, of the county election board.
Which brings us to Mr. Obama, who got his start as a Chicago “community organizer” at Acorn’s side. In 1992 he led voter registration efforts as the director of Project Vote, which included Acorn. This past November, he lauded Acorn’s leaders for being “smack dab in the middle” of that effort. Mr. Obama also served as a lawyer for Acorn in 1995, in a case against Illinois to increase access to the polls.
During his tenure on the board of Chicago’s Woods Fund, that body funneled more than $200,000 to Acorn. More recently, the Obama campaign paid $832,000 to an Acorn affiliate. The campaign initially told the Federal Election Commission this money was for “staging, sound, lighting.” It later admitted the cash was to get out the vote.
The Obama campaign is now distancing itself from Acorn, claiming Mr. Obama never organized with it and has nothing to do with illegal voter registration. Yet it’s disingenuous to channel cash into an operation with a history of fraud and then claim you’re shocked to discover reports of fraud. As with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers, Mr. Obama was happy to associate with Acorn when it suited his purposes. But now that he’s on the brink of the Presidency, he wants to disavow his ties.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394051071230749.html
.
This is what you get when you “privatize” chasing voters to registar to vote at a POTUS election Just like CDO’s and CDSs people won’t say its wrong/corrupt , but after a sooner or later US election is totally rorted , those peoplke will then say ‘it should not hav happened’
Accepting Wall Street Jounal info , wonder how many here 1/ condemn an organization like Acorn and 2/ condemn Obama’s association whatsoever with it
ShowsOn25 & Dario26,
Was that lady from Missouri?
…… Sounds like the sort of thing my sister would say “still has Muslim in him” …..
Sheeeesssshhh, that lady is a few kangaroos short, isn’t she?
Ronster
I note that the Obama campaign is referring to Fox News as the “24/7 ACORN News Channel” now.
And the Conservatives won in Canada. Obviously the crash has moved North American voters to the right and Obama is doing an amazing job in fighting that proven trend.
YEAH !!!!!!! My absentee voters ballot arrived in today’s mail
I’ll fill it out tonight and fast-post it back to Ann Arbor, Michigan in Thursday’s mail 
Ron: re Acorn
“The group released a video, set to the song You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feelin’, showing Senator McCain warmly greeting its activists at a February 2006 event in support of immigration reform.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2391412.htm
Minnesota I think
Dario,
She must have been channeling my sister …..
only a stones throw over Iowa
It seems ACORN is all the Repubs have left. Good luck with that one. They must be sounding like Ron now.
Only here is the Huff Post cited as an independent news source.
I’m old enough to remember when the Huff was Ariana Stasinopoulos, right-wing nut-job. Now she’s become frothingly left, but she’s still a nut-job.
I haven’t seen anyone here cite it as independent, have they?
I have to agree with Adam on Huffington Post. However the story on chris Buckley resigning is correct. See the Wall Street Journal, not a left wing source
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122401695864033705.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Most of the Huff posts articles on politics are links to other articles
Zogby
Obama 48 (down 1)
McCain 44 (up 1)
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1587
That’s hardly the insurmountable lead he’s being portrayed has having.
One poll, Oz. One poll. The RCP average is +8.
Ron @31
Firstly, both candidates have associated with ACORN for the good reason that ACORN has never been involved with any voter fraud. It can only REGISTER voters. Any registrations which it considers remotely suspect, it alerts the appropriate state electoral officers to check out because it is not allowed to nullify a registration.
Most of these “suspects” are obvious ones like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck, so assuming the state electoral officer did approve such a registration form, then someone is going to look silly dressed up like a Disneyland street character in order to attempt to vote.
However, this latest desperate attack does have a benefit for Obama. The more that the Republican media (Fox, Limbaugh, Hannity etc.) waste their time on this irrelvant stuff, the less time they spend rubbishing Obama over matters that all polls show are really important to voters during this global economic crisis.
This is not 2000, and people will not be casting their vote for the Pres. candidate they would rather have a beer with or against the Pres. candidate who is being attacke through guilt by association. Moreover, if guilt by association was important, McCain would be in a world of hurt trying to defend his repeated appearance on the radio program and flowery praise of convicted Watergate burgler, G. Gordon Liddy.
As in past recession elections when people are extremely anxious about their jobs and savings (see 1980, 1992), the incumbent party’s candidate is going to lose because “It’s the economy, stupid!”
Btw, mailed my absentee ballot yesterday.
Touche.
Though Zogby was 6.2 yesterday and dropped to 3.8. I wonder if the average will.
Zogby is one of the few, if only pollsters who has the same percentage of Dems and Repubs, which is clearly out of whack with reality. However, it does serve a good purpose of motivating the Obama/Biden ground game troops to keep working their tails off.
The Perth phone book lists 10 numbers under the surname “Duck”. Are these conscientious citizens disfranchised if they happen to be called “Donald”?
Adam in Canberra@43
So there is hope for right wing nutters. I think it would be hard to describe anyone as a left wing nutter in the good old USA, No, perhaps good old George with his nationalization of the banks.
2.4, 2.9, 3.6, 4.2, 4.8, 6.1, 4.3, 6.2, 3.8
Fairly steady really
I have often considered that left and right wing are actually lines that form a circle. If you go out far enough in one direction, you end up on the other side.
William Bowe @ 53
Very droll, William, very droll. Anyone who went through life and retained those names should deserve two votes!
Re jjulian1009 @ 50,
Where do you vote out of? I thought I was the only one voting in the US election for real
…. I vote out of Scio Township just west of Ann Arbor, Michigan. Cheers 
Well *practically* the Soviet Union had more in common with fascist states than any democracies but in *theory*, leftism on the economic scale = more government intervention whereas the right-wing is an adovation of less intervention. There’s no way those two could meet up.
And socially, in theory, the “left” generally applies to an increase in civil liberties and letting people do what they want, and the “right” means authoritariniasm.
Obviously those are fairly huge generalisations and I’m sure many would dispute but my point is that in theory, the left and right wouldn’t meet up but in practice, extreme leftist states have more in common with extreme right-wing states than either would like to admit.
Julilem @ 58
Good on ya! I am resident in Sydney and vote out of San Bernardino County, California, so my vote won’t make much difference. Your Ann Arbor vote could be far more important (go Wolverines!).
Still, it felt seriously splendid to vote for Barack and Joe!
jjulian,
I voted a straight party ticket for the partisan offerings. Yes, it felt very very good and I actually think that after the pain of Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 that this year will be karmic justice
…….
I’ve been here since December 2004 and am a dual citizen now so I get to vote in both countries elections. Are you an Aussie citizen as well?
jjulian, do you want into our PB EV guessing contest? if you do (no official prizes just the pride of picking the right number), I need your EV guess for Obama and the following two tie breakers – will Obama take Missouri and which state will put him over the top in the EV vote total? Cheers
juliem @ 61
You betcha!
In my heart, I’m now an Aussie, but I visit my rels in California every year. Aren’t we incredibly lucky that they let us live in this glorious country?
juliem, I’ll update my selection to 350 EV’s, he won’t win Missouri, and Colorado for the big finale.
jj, yes indeed …. I married an Aussie in 1996 so that explains how I ended up here eventually
…… we live here permanently now {not going into my closet to explain my family and why I don’t go back to the US – other than the Republican sister I have in Missouri – if anyone wants to see me, they can come here} and no plans of going back to the US.
But for this being a glorious country, it sure is. Our family is getting 2 grand courtesy of Rudd’s handouts earlier this week and you know that if I were still back in the US, that we wouldn’t get that kind of generosity over there
…..
I see a lot of parallels between some of Obama’s ideas and things that Rudd has done in the last 12 months
. I know that the left side of politics won’t always carry the day so I want to enjoy it for as many days/weeks/months/years as it continues 
Sondeo, got it no worries
…..
Juliem
My call is Obama will win 313 EV, but I’dl have to go into a deep karma meditation to call the state which will put him over the top.
I think McCain will win Mizzou, unless it’s a huge Obamaslide.
Cheers back at ya!
Sondeo @ 64
I hope you’re right about Colorado going the big finale. My rightwing Repub-voting brother lives in Denver, so that would be a wee bit more icing on the cake.
julian, to be honest, I know nothing ( literally )
about how the US political system works, but from reading the blogs, I get the feeling that when push comes to shove, the repubs will get a big shove, goodbye.
juliem I can’t even remember my EV pick. Could you remind me?
John McCain reminds me a lot of JWH.
Socceroos 1 Qatar 0….Tim Chaill scores in 8th minute. Go Aussies.!
we’re all over them sondeo. Though if Hilary was playing for them they’d be up 3-0 by now!
jj, we need to do something about these blacksheep republicans in our respective families
…… i tried converting my sister, but she won’t have anything of it. her husband is a life time army nco, now retired to the civilian police force, and she votes like the traditional military voters, always republican as they usually are more friendly towards the military budget. she is on my case the last week or two about A.C.O.R.N but I just delete those emails after reading them and let them go through to the keeper 
….
have you ever wondered how maria and arnie manage it? i could never ever live in the same household [moved out of home before that sister first began voting. my first election was 1980, hers was 1984.] with someone who voted the opposite party from myself, let alone if it was my spouse. i don’t know how they manage it, it is beyond me. perhaps being from California, you can shed some light on that? my husband and i both vote labor as do my inlaws, no libs in this family LOL ……
Grog @ 70,
Both you & Gusface are the same at present – 348, No on Missouri and Colorado to put Obama over the top. Incidentally, Gary Bruce and I are currently the only ones who have said “yes” that Obama will take Missouri.
jj, I hear where you are coming from in #68 as that was part of my motivation in saying that I thought Obama would take Missouri. Also, RCP has had it mostly in the Obama camp on the no tossup states map for awhile now.
2-0. I like it! Go you good things!
Thanks juliem.
Well looking at the RC no-toss up is currently 364. .. would like to change, but I’ll stick with my pick, but switch to Florida being the over the top state.
Ah, Juliem, now you have struck upon one of the great existential questions.
My brother often tries to lure me into political arguments by taking cheap shots at Democratic candidates, but I never bite. No Coalition voters in my Aussie family either, but we’ll be voting Greens until the NSW Liberals-in-sheep’s-clothing government is thrown out.
By the way, I’m a Vietnam Vet, and most of my ‘Nam buddies are voting for Obama, if for no other reason than to avenge the Swiftboating of Captain John Kerry which gave an AWOL flyboy another disastrous term. Speaking of the highest disapproval-rated President in history, have you heard any buzz on Oliver Stone’s bioflick, “W”, which is coming out this week?
jjulian – reviews seem to be “mixed” at best on W:
http://www.metacritic.com/film/titles/w
Thgouh Stone is always a bit brilliant or crap.
Juliem @ 74
My scepticism about Mizzou is that I was stationed near K.C. for 6 months, and it was real rednecky (nothwithstanding Pres.Truman having been a K.C. boy). However, an Obamalanche would bury it easy!
Grog @ 75
Always a good bet to go with Florida because, if the election is close, who knows how many weeks it will take for the Republican Party Supreme Court justices to award Florida and the election to McCain.
Grog,
Thanks for the link to the “W” reviews. Have you any thoughts on whether it could impact on the election, ala “Fahrenheit 9/11″?
I doubt it’ll have any – people already hate W
Plus Stone’s films rarely do well at the box office, so I doubt many will see it – and those who do will see it to confrim their feelings on him.
grog @ 75, got it no worries
….
Good call, Grog. I’m hoping it will be a timely reminder of the need to have an intelligent and thoughtful person as Prez.
Hillary would’ve won by more.
WILLIAM: Delta Goodrem rang the bell to open the NYSE yesterday…
http://www.nyse.com/about/newsevents/1223893503890.html
No wonder it tanked again.
ShowsOn @ 83.
Perhaps so, assuming that a lot of people wanted to see the Big Dog, Bill, back in action. However, I hope you’re not a PUMA because Obama is going to be one of the all-time greats.
at least 37.5%
whats a PUMA
Jjulian,
Great call. Punish a true war hero for the sins of another.
What War did Obama fight in!
gus,
P (arty) U (nity) M (y) A (**)
most recently used by disaffected Hillary supporters when Obama got enough votes to go over the top for the nomination back in June ……
* william, hope that wasn’t too sneaky for the filters as I wasn’t sure if they would catch on that particular word
Party Unity My Ass
Sorry, it is a silly in-joke that this blog has spawned. Whatever poll results Obama achieves (narrow leads in North Carolina and Virginia, line ball in Missouri, with North Dakota in play!?), there’s a faction that says Hillary would’ve been leading by more (as if she gets two presidencies if she wins by a larger amount!?)
I say this as someone who wanted Hillary Clinton to win the primary, but now it is obvious that Obama is by far a better candidate and campaigner than McCain & Train-wreck.
LOL! Exactly.
The war against bad Republican Presidential candidates.
Gusface,
PUMA stands for Party Unity My A**, whose website is http://www.puma08.com for aggrieved Hillary supporters supporting McCain. However, the arrival of Gov. Palin has probably deflated the PUMAS down to negligible numbers (except in the Deep South, of course).
jjulian,
what brought you to Australia? Did you (as I did) marry an Aussie? And how long have you been here?
Arse is fine – ass less so.
You don’t like donkeys Willam?
My concern is with the hegemony of the Great Satan.
well said grand ayatollah bilbo @97
Re PUMA- sorry I asked
4-0! It’s an Obama sized rout.
hahahahahahahahaha
Greensborough @ 88
Any Vietnam Vet has earned the right to vote against a Vietnam “war hero” who exploits his war service shouting a noun, a verb and P.O.W. whenever he’s given a tough question about his cheerleading for Bush’s Iraq war disaster that’s resulted in the deaths of thousands of our brother and sister troops.
There have been serious accusations raised about McCain’s conduct while in captivity by other Vietnam P.O.W.’s on some websites, but rightly, the MSM has not picked them up and done to McCain that they did to Kerry. The reason Kerry was swiftboated was that he “ratted” about war atrocities to a Congressional Committee after becoming a member of Vietnam Vets against the War.
If you have not served in a war zone yourself, it’s very difficult to empathise with those who have, so I will assume your sarcastic tone was for strictly for rhetorical impact. Especially in stormy times like these, we’ve all got to give each other as much of a benefit of the doubt as we possibly can.
Juliem @ 94.
Thanks for asking. Came here on my R & R, migrated after the war when I was offered a position as a TAFE teacher, eventually found an Aussie woman brave enough to marry a Yank. I am irrefutable proof of what a tolerant multi-cultural society Australia is. What part of the sunburnt country do you reside?
ShowsOn @
Good on you for covering my back as well as for explaining the Hillary In-joke. On some American blogs I see Hillary stuff frequently employed by agent-provocateur trolls pretending to be PUMAS.
jjuliem,
Self serving tosh.
I ask again, what war did Obama serve in?
Greensborough @ 103,
Obviously, my attempt to have a civil discourse with you was a waste of time since you’ve decided to respond with an insult. Accordingly, I will not waste any further time with you. However, I wish you all the best.
GG 103
I just tuned in, so I may be missing the point.
But does it really matter if Obama has fought in a war or not? He’s not applying for a job in the marines.
Hillary would have fought in a war by now
In the Federal Election I voted for Rudd because I wanted to see the end of Howard, not because I particularly liked Rudd. Most of what has transpired since makes me pleased about my choice. I obviously dont get a vote in the US election but if I did I would definitely vote for Obama in order to make a definitive break from Bushism/neoconism. I dont have very strong positive opinions on Obama, but that is the choice that is offered.
To believe that McCain is better at defence policy because he spent some time in the navy is akin to saying I would be a good treasurer because I worked for a time in a bank, and a good agriculture minister because I worked in shearing sheds during school holidays.
What I hope Americans are looking for is the most intelligent person on offer. The current financial crisis demonstrates that not even a nation as powerfull as America can carry someone as dopey and venal as Bush for very long.
MC 107
That is very similar to my view on both US and Australian politics. Just as with Howard and the Libs, Bush and the republicans have to go. They don’t jsut elect a president, they elect an administration – a government. If they elect another republcian one then nothing will really change, and the world can’t afford that.
The coments on McCain and militar service are beside the point. They don’t need a soldier; they need a leader who can fix the economy. Besides, Dubbya, Clinton, Reagan and Nixon never served in a war either. They all got elected for better or worse.
What war did George W Bush or Bill Clinton serve in?
Rasmussen national tracking poll
Obama 50
McCain 45
This is the 4th day straight with unchanged numbers
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
And single-handedly won it.
Steady on… she would have needed Bill to give her a hand
What is up with Intrade? 80/20 in a two horse race.
Have a look at Indiana – 47 – 50 in McCain’s favour.
If Obama does well tomorrow that will be flipped by the weekend. That would put Obama up to 385.
Also, according to Intrade, Obama is more likely to win Virginia than Ohio!
jjulian1009
#50…”for the good reason that ACORN has never been INVOLVED with ANY voter fraud.”
Did you actually read th Wall Street Journal link in my #31 showing 9 States involving Acorn fraud , before you made this baseless statement
Wall Street journal 14/10/08:
“The MICHIGAN Secretary of State told the press in September that Acorn had submitted “a sizeable number of duplicate and fraudulent applications.”
Earlier this month, NEVADA’s Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller requested a raid on Acorn’s offices, following complaints of false names and fictional addresses (including the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys). Nevada’s Clark County Registrar of Voters Larry Lomax said he saw rampant fraud in 2,000 to 3,000 applications Acorn submitted weekly.
Officials in OHIO are investigating voter fraud connected with Acorn, ….
and FLORIDA’s Seminole County is withholding Acorn registrations that appear fraudulent.
NEW MEXICO , NORTH CAROLINA and MISSSOURI are looking into hundreds of dubious Acorn registrations.
WISCONSIN is investigating Acorn employees for, according to an election official, “making people up or registering people that were still in prison.”
INDIANA Then there’s Lake County, Indiana, which has already found more than 2,100 bogus applications among the 5,000 Acorn dumped right before the deadline. “All the signatures looked exactly the same,” said Ruthann Hoagland, of the county election board. Bridgeport, Connecticut estimates about 20% of Acorn’s registrations were faulty. As of July, the city of Houston had rejected or put on hold about 40% of the 27,000 registration cards submitted by Acorn.
That’s 2008 just this year.
In 2004, four Acorn employees were indicted in OHIO for submitting false voter registrations.
In 2005, two COLORADO Acorn workers were found to have submitted false registrations.
Four Acorn MISSOURI employees were indicted in 2006; five were found guilty in Washington state in 2007 for filling out registration forms with names from a phone book.
Which brings us to Mr. Obama, who got his start as a Chicago “community organizer” at Acorn’s side. In 1992 he led voter registration efforts as the director of Project Vote, which included Acorn. This past November, he lauded Acorn’s leaders for being “smack dab in the middle” of that effort.
Mr. Obama also served as a lawyer for Acorn in 1995, in a case against Illinois to increase access to the polls.
During his tenure on the board of Chicago’s Woods Fund (with William Ayers) , that body funneled more than $200,000 to Acorn. More recently, the Obama campaign paid $832,000 to an Acorn affiliate. The campaign initially told the Federal Election Commission this money was for “staging, sound, lighting.”
It later admitted the cash was to get out the vote.
The Obama campaign is now distancing itself from Acorn, claiming Mr. Obama never organized with it and has nothing to do with illegal voter registration. Yet it’s disingenuous to channel cash into an operation with a history of fraud and then claim you’re shocked to discover reports of fraud. As with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers, (and Rezko) Mr. Obama was happy to associate with Acorn when it suited his purposes. But now that he’s on the brink of the Presidency, he wants to disavow his ties.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394051071230749.html
Insider Advantage polls:
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 44 (sample 612)
Nevada: Obama 49, McCain 46 (506)
North Carolina: Obama 48, McCain 46 (474)
West Virginia: McCain 49, Obama 47 (522)
The WV poll is pleasing, because Obama’s eight-point lead based on one dodgy poll stuck out like a sore thumb on my polling aggregate list. It’s now 5 per cent, which is probably still excessive.
jj @ 102,
currently I reside in Canberra but we are moving to Perth in January. My husband works as an officer in the RAAF so we move around a fair bit
Cheers
Michael @ 107,
Good on you ….. we need to rid the world of the logic that just because someone has served in the military or even moreso as a POW that means they are entitled to be POTUS. Shove that idea asap
…..
BOLO ["be on the lookout" for the unawares],
Re 119, sorry it is early that should be BOTLO, left out the t …..
Why are they only investigating voter fraud in toss up states that Obama is leading in!
What a co-winkydink!
In other news, the share market tanks again and Obama is now on 82.5% on Intrade.
For some light relief try an interactive site in Sarah Palin’s Oval Office.
I must admit that I found the further share market fall odd last night. While I posted yesterday that the US had finaly admitted it was in recession, this should have already been factored into market prices. It is not news. With all the bank stabilisation programs in place now, there is good reason to believe we will not see a depression, even though a US recession is inevitable. So called “professional investors” are not behaving verry rationally at the moment. They have no clue.
Before people get even sillier over ACORN, it might be worth pointing out that ACORN is required by law in most states to hand in all voter registration forms they receive, including the ones that are dodgy. But ACORN know these forms are dodgy since they are actually the ones that label them as suspicious or of having missing information before they hand them in to authorities!
That’s why the only media running with this ACORN nonsense are the usual Republican suspects – ACORN obeying the law and identifying dodgy registration forms is only a story for those outfits riding the moonbat express.
but but but possum
this it.
acorn is the straw that breaks the camels back.
Ron,Finns, etc were on to something all along
Obama is toast and as soon as the truth comes out that he is…………..
SECRET SQUIRRELL
I mean the USA cant elect a cartoon character can they.
thank god for the WSJ! Huzzah
ps it was all those Acorn references that gave it away.
storing nuts for winter-WE KNOW BETTER ;0
ROTFL
113
{What is up with Intrade? 80/20 in a two horse race}
One of the horses is Weekend Hustler and the other is a draft horse.
Update on the race to get to the fillibuster proof 60 seat threshold in the Senate …
juliem
Personally, I detest Colin Powell and would prefer it if he didn’t endorse Obama. I know lots of people like Powell, for presumably feel-good reasons. Even the ultra-discerning and hard-nosed Adam likes him but I really don’t understand why. Powell did more than anyone to bring on the Iraq War by spreading disinformation that he should have questioned. He also performed a whitewash of the My Lai massacre which was exposed by Seymour Hersch eventually.
Powell has blown his credibility and should be apologising to the world rather than endorsing people.
Ron @ 115
I have already addressed the central Murcoch pro-McCain media allegation because no voter committed fraud due to ACORN. he football players names are as well known as Ricky Ponting or Kathy Freeman and thus easily checked for validity by the county registrar of voters after being alerted they were suspect by ACORN itself.
As for a couple of ACORN people convicted for fraud in previous years, nearly all the bad apple people did this prior to John McCain giving a laudatory speech to the attendees at a public function co-sponsored by ACORN in 2006. The video of McCain at this public meeting is available on numerous non-Murdoch political blogs.
The Obama payment you mentioned was not for voter registration, but for some canvassing work done during one of the primaries. As ACORN, according to the respect McCain showed them in the public meeting in 2006, is a respectable organisation, this is hardly evidence of poor judgement (neither would be assisting in a legal case on behalf of ACORN in the ’90’s for the same reason). Moreover, Obama has built the most extensive “ground game” in this election to encourage voters to register and cast a vote, so his campaign did not use ACORN for registration operations.
With the world economy is in dire straits, the USA fighting two expensive wars, millions of Americans without health care, unemployment rapidly rising, I don’t care about McCains recent past associations with ACORN, convicted Watergate burgler G. Gordon Liddy, or savings and loan association fraud convicted Charles Keating etc. (I think that Obama is dead wrong to run those attack ads about the Keating Five). Doubtless you reckon McCain’s policies are the better options to deal with the crises that American now faces, and I fully respect anyone supporting McCain for policy reasons as well as superior leadership and strength of character. I hope you will respect my supporting Obama for his policies, superior leadership and strength of character.
Sorry for typo on first line: Murdoch.
Possum @ 124
Thanks for your cogent explanation the point I attempted to make @ post # 50 and again @ 131. Perhaps coming from such a widely respected marsupial, it will carry some weight in here.
Not likely jj!
Juliem,
Thanks for the BOTLO on a possible “October surprise” endorsement by Powell —-hadn’t seen that one previously.
Sorry I didn’t catch your posts sooner. I’m test-driving the baby-sized screen on my new EEE-PC, which is a real challenge (plus the tiny keyboard results in more typos even than usual).
Pleased to hear your hubby is in RAAF.What kind of duty? I was USAF Rescue and Recovery Officer in ‘Nam.
Possum
ACORN is all the republicans have left. Funny really when you consider that it should be seen as a positive thing to try and get people to vote.
Make the lazy buggers show up at the poling booth I say, or fine them. There are countries that do that you know.
Possum
How can you dismiss evidence like this?
Transvestite Involved in ACORN Scandal Flashes Reporter
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e43_1224086229&p=1
I totally agree. It’s like the way that the market bounced up after Rudd said he would guarantee savings in Australian banks – as if that was ever in any doubt, yet somehow it was apparently news to the geniuses on the market.
How can anyone be surprised that the US is in recession? These people must also know that downturns end, that share markets recover, and that sometime in the not-too-distant future the market will be back to a record high. Yet at the moment they are jittery as hell and making poor choices upon poor choices.
A couple of other thoughts on this here.
I know we’ve all lost interest as the election is over but isn’t there a debate on today? Perhaps McCain might be able to think of a coherent reason for voting for him, rather than endless drivel about Ayers and ACORN.
Donald Trump has come out and says bush should be impeached…..!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/they-did-it-to-clinton-for-a-lesser-offence-tycoon/2008/10/16/1223750191362.html
No dedicated debate thread today, BTW – duke it out here.
Someone with coverage – what’s going on!??
Check out: http://www.france24.com/en/livefeed-fairfax
I can’t watch it at work, so any views on how it’s going would be of interest.
They evidently started on the economy and the Dow Jones dying again. Bad for McCain. The Nikkei went down 10%. I’m so glad I don’t have any share or superannuation.
Patrick 138
Thanks; nice link.
I find the whole CDO/CDS market particularly eggregious – even the most nihilistic of free-market advocates would acknowledge that transparency is a minimum requirement for any market to work. Yet we now have most major banks holdign billiosn in these instruments and not having declared what they potentially owe. I can’t believe that at some level they (unreported CDO/CDS markets) aren’t a breach of finance firms obligation to inform share markets of their true financial position.
I guess all of us “wet” liberal economists are feeling quite a lot of “I told you so” now on the reality of market failures. Too bad a couple of million innocent blue-collar US workers had to become unemployed before the decision makers admitted it.
update
obama and mccain are sitting at a desk,talking fairly softly.
subdued voices,currently discussing biden
oops mccain getting abit animated re obama’s spending
no back to quiet again
nowon to CC
mccain-we can eliminate dependence on mid east oil
build 45 plants to eliminate need,reprocess nuclear
new technology,little asides re obama
McCain’s gone troppo on Ayers and ACORN. Evidently the next election won’t count as the fabric of democracy has been torn asunder by Mickey Mouse.
obama-shake up the oil co’s,4% world supply yet uses 25%
specifics-fuel efficient cars,new technologies,going into detail on tade agreement re cars
Mccain “me too” to free trade
mccain keeps talking to interviewer not camera
We can all ‘eath breezy’ eh John?
Obama actually laughs when McCain says his campaign is about getting the economy on track. It’s not all about Ayers and ACORN after all. Perhaps someone else is putting out those 100% attack ads.
Obama healthcare- homily about 2 women scared about healthinsurance
faces camera ‘we are only going to cut the cost of healthcare” cheap drugs.IT better health management
mcccain-healthcare terrible pain looks at audience rambling about health issues
give 5 grand credit, talking to his mate Joe wtf
Obama “Im happy to talk to you too Joe”
now onto tax/benefits from employers re healthcare
Obama :mccains 5 grand is illusory,will upset employer system also mccain will tax employer healthcare benefits for the first time. creata cherrypick system
mccain: back to joe ,raving about wealth wtf ,keeps referring to notes, trying rather badly to refute obama,now on to obama=gvt intervention mccain=freedom of choice
What’s the sense of how it’s going? Are either of them cutting through?
obama keeps addressing the camera,whereas mccain looks at interviewer
obama seems more measured whereas mccain is somewhat confused looking at times.
Obama hit the ceiling on fuel efficient cars, the only time either has in the debate.
now talking roe v wade
both dodging issue to a degree,obama says women have right to privacy re decision
(missed mccains first response)
Mccain-we got to change culture
“pro life like me” now talking legislative record of obama re abortions
this will cut through to the fundies
Obama-refutes nastier aspects of legislative record,,points out laws on illinois books.
supports ban late term abortions except in exceptional circumstances.
Boring, boring, boring.
America burns while these two Yeti fiddle, fuddle and muddle.
I pity America and the World.
McCains making mistakes again. Says “transplants” will be off under his health scheme. Really should have said “hair transplants”. There must be a lot of worried people on dialysis unless he corrects himself after the debate. Also says Obama voted against Justice Breyer for SCOTUS. Breyer was appointed by Bill Clinton well before Obama was in the senate. And he calls Obama “Senator Government”.
Heffy for POTUS. If he still can do it at 82, he can do anything.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/entertainment/people/from-holly-to-golly-theyre-getting-even-younger/2008/10/16/1223750195844.html
McCain’s facial expressions and his lack of control over them are a problem. He just doesn’t look presidential. And now I’ve got “proof”. He blinks too often to be President.
So, ACORN will unravel the very fabric of democracy! Oh Noes – what will Joe the Plumber do!
joe the plumber ?
So has McCain got himself a new VP candidate then?
There are a lot of very paralytic poeple in the US at the moment who had the good fortune to have ” Joe the Plumber” on their debate bingo cards.
Some very funny ” Joe the Plumber ” comments on the Daily Kos blogs.!
Quick Vote
Who fared better in Wednesday’s presidential debate?
Sen. John McCain 10% 1675
Sen. Barack Obama 87% 13951
No clear winner 3% 427
Total Votes: 16053
CNN
Who won the final presidential debate?
John McCain 25%
Barack Obama 75%
Total Voters:8455
This is not a scientific poll.
Fox News.
CNN flash poll:
The winner:
Obama 58%
McCain 31%
Obama’s favourables +3, unfavourable -2
McCain favourables -2, unfavourables +4
More accurate reaction about the debate:
CBS Undecideds – Obama 53, McCain 22
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/15/politics/horserace/entry4525171.shtml
Media Curves results from the debate (independent voters):
Obama 60
McCain 30
Undecided 10
http://www.mediacurves.com/
what was Joe the Plumbers polling figures?
The debate was clearly a tie, maybe leaning ever so slightly towards Obama. The fact that all of the polls taken after the debate point to an easy Obama victory show that the people “aren’t listening” to the GOP anymore. Sound familiar?
This election is over.
McCain is going to support Joe the Plumber, but give the $300 billion tax cuts to the rich.
I’m sure Joe will be very grateful for that.
Those polls must all be lies because Drudge has McCain winning 75-24!!!
Clearly?
Dario, it’s all objective anyway. My dad still swears the JWH won the debate with Rudd.!
Dario – they both made solid points, McCain performed better than the previous two, in my opinion.
Obama WON the debate on both style and substance; he was cool and controlled, and easily deflected McCain’s barbs. McCain may well have offended women with abortion comments. The post-debate polls reflect a landslide Obama win.
I think the only way to truly judge who won a debate is to see the REPUTABLE polls of undecided voters using random samples, and only time will tell. In my opinion McCain got hosed… again.
When Fox News reckons a Democrat won the debate, then he won it
Hahahaha one of the better comments tonight “McCain WAS presidential tonight… Nixonian”
Zombie went:
The polling results for Joe the Plumber are just coming in:
Joe the Plumber should… (choose one of the following)
1.Joe Who? (4%)
2.Just STFU and get back to fixing my damn toilet so I can lay some cable (7%)
3.Become McCains advisor for Rebuilding America – one pipe at a time (9%)
3.Get back to using tools instead of being one (11%)
2.Become a contestant on Amercias Next Top Vacuous Famewhore (69%)
So there we have it folks – an overwhelming majority of Americans believe that Joe the Plumber should get an agent and move to Hollywood like all talentless numbnets with 15 seconds of fame should.
OK fair enough. Don’t get me wrong, I hope Obama wins and wins well. It’s just from what I’ve seen though, people aren’t even giving McCain an ear at the moment. The way this campaign is mirroring ours last year is scary.
I agree with injuddstree 175 – it was a tie, but the polls show peopel have made up their mind, with daily reminders in the financial news of why they should do so.
Actually I did think Obama was slightly better, but then I missed hearing “joe the plumber”. Guess us elitist liberals are not very folksy.
There is a reason for that
poss
too much simpsons for you (are you channelling ralphie or what)
1,2,3,3,2
injuddstree 175 – I agree basically with your summation but I think Obama was a little more than slightly ahead.
Hannity on Fox trying to overcook the glorious McCain debate victory: “Obama was playing defense tonight”.
That’s right gimp boy, he was defending that 200 EV lead that will send the Republicans back to the medieval cesspit they crawled out of in 1997.
Dario @ 184,
Sounds like I didn’t miss much
……. I was out today but reckoned, accurately it seems, that Obama would run away with it 
…. catching up on summaries now …..
Dick Morris: “this debate lays the groundwork for a McCain victory”.
Oh Jesus on a stick! Joe the Plumber needs to clean his pipes.
Over the three debates the thing I found with McCain was that while he didn’t debate badly, his tactics annoyed me. It might have been a case of drawing the battle but losing the war for him. All the little tactics to “niggle” Obama made him seem mean spirited, just as the recent negative adds have done as well. he can’t have it both ways – folksy warm-hearted maverick and at the same time doing anything to win.
Anyway, at this point if the republicans win again I think I’ll follow Tina Feys advice.
I heard Michelle Obama awarded the debate to Barrack Obama – sort of matches Dick Morris’s evaluation.
Obama now up to 83.4 on Intrade
Hillary would be at 531.2
Well the highly unbiased huffingtonpost gave it Obama.
The ABC gave it to Obama.
SBS gave it to McCain.
Me, solid win to boring.
Tim Cahill for POTUS. At least he is more exciting than the two Yeti.
197
Right on Dario. If Hillary was running she would win so many EVs they would have to double the number in each state. What a woman.
G’day all!
I’ve been hanging out over at the other place, where all the Obama supporters fled to.
As for today’s debate: McCain needed a knockout blow or to put Obama off his game somehow, but he didn’t do it! Obama once again looked more presidential and composed, McCain playing the Republican negative politics/smear playbook isn’t a good look. It’s a little sad to watch a man I once respected getting down into the mud!
Oh well, he and the Republicans deserve all the misery coming their way on November 4.
And, new polls show Obama 10 points ahead in Virginia, and 13 ahead in New Mexico.
Add those two states to a certain Obama pickup in Iowa + all the Kerry states, and Obama is over the 270 electoral vote mark!
Hahahahaha what an unfortunate photo!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/16/0301/2828/649/631935
Possum
#124 (replying to my #115)
“That’s why the only MEDIA running with this ACORN nonsense are the usual Republican suspects – ACORN OBEYING the law and identifying dodgy registration forms..”
Firstly , th Wall Street Journal ar NOT th “usual Republican suspects” , so you Possum smear of th Wall Street Journal simply demonstrates your parisan bias of anything adverse regarding Obama by smearing th whole paper’s reputation ….whereas its your questionable credibility & lack of political ‘balance’ that is highlighted for smearingley doing so (actually Murdoch has publicly supported Obama’s election ! …if th false smear innuendo is Murdoch has suddenly changed this decades long credible Media outlet )
Secondley , your claim “to follow th data whever it leads” is also demonstrated to only apply IF th data is not adverse to Obama , your quote “ACORN OBEYING the law” is a false statement and you would hav known that had you actualy read th Wall Street Journal article dated 14/10/08 detailing indictments & CONVICTIONS for FRAUD by Acorn…. Fraud convictions is not obeying th Law at all
Actualy Wall Street Journal article detailled ELEVEN States of current problems with Acorn : Wisconsin , Ohio , Colorado , Missouri , Washington State , Nevada , Inndiana , Florida , New Mexico , North Carolina , Michigan….including DEMOCRAT Secretary of States persuing Acorn….again highlighting your questionable credibility & questionoble partisan political ‘balance’
‘WST’ :“More recently, the Obama campaign paid $832,000 to an Acorn affiliate. The campaign initially told the Federal Election Commission this money was for “staging, sound, lighting.” It later ADMITTED ‘the cash was to get out the vote.”…..th VERY thing Acorn is listed in above 11 eleven States for CURRENTLY doing questionably
So your #124 was reely to disengenuously undermine and ridicule th substance of a Wall Steert Journal detailed Report critical of Obama , you a very partesan suporter of
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394051071230749.html
A few weeks ago , you also used smear to argue against a New York Times journalistic investigation AND ABC News Report when I detailed there info on Obama’s almost decade long seedy MULTIPLE relationships with th slippery Rezko You’ve repated similar innuendo’s with th Wall Street Journal article Th only constant is credible Media with adverse Obama data and you a partissan Obama supporter smearing them or me for detailing it
Whilst those Media with actual evidense (and I) ar simply highlightng Obama’s poor longterm judgements , shaky convictions , indecency standards , inappropriate governance & willingness to ‘disown’ those relationships with diengenuoius misleading statements when Obama is caught out These ar/were in my view legitmates issues regarding Obama’s ‘fitness’
Instead Possum and numerous alots of other pro Obama posters here hav instead junked any semblence of ‘left’ objective fairness values’ of proper discussion of these issues by using my lingos & my apparently personaly offensive posts or my alleged bitternes as shoot th messenger narrative to osterize so as to diminish substanse of whats I actualy said Well 99% of th intelectual integrity flock buy it , but then my posts ar still permanentley here for (later) impartial readers to assess th substanse of my views , Acorn with William Ayers , Rezko , Pastor Wright & others deal with Obama ‘s significant character defects listed in th preceding paragraph (th diference to McCain is his (whilst different in nature) ar blatantly obvious)
Even the student of US Presidency, Bob Carr, has to admit today that before 15/9, he had doubt whether Obama can win because of Barack Hussein Obama.
Now 15/9 was just after Fannie and Freddie, the starting point of the meltdown, and McCain made that great statement that “the fundamentals of US economy are sound”.
So Obama and his supporters really should get down on their knees to thank Dubya and the Masters of the Universe of Wall St, because they handed the POTUS to him on a plate.
yes, Hillary would have been +1200 by now.
I don’t know why you bother Ron. You are not going to change one vote here or opinion. Oh, that’s right, none of us (except Juliem) get a vote do we?
Gary Bruce,
Also, jjulian1009 (resident of Sydney) I found out last night also gets a vote. He’s a Vietnam vet who now lives here, as I am, married to an Aussie.
Ron, we’ve both already voted and quite happily for Obama. Run the Republicans out of town, I say. Can’t happen soon enough.
The only question now I would say is guess how long it will take before we know the result?
…….
I’ll go out on a limb and say we know the result before I eat dinner on Wednesday. Seeing as how that is between 1 and 2am east coast time in the US, I think that this is a fairly safe bet
205
+1200? Oh come now Finns. She’d be much higher than that.
This is superwoman we’re talking about. Able to leap into tall Whitehouses in a single bound. She’s Superman, Batman and Spiderman all rolled into one. George Washington and Abraham Lincoln are just lucky she wasn’t around in their day. ,
#206
As a dual citizen, I voted in the US election, and so did my wife. Nothing would persuade either of us to vote for McCain. Even as I write this, our ballots are somewhere over the Pacific ocean, on their way to the US of A.
So score 2 more votes for Obama in the swing state of Iowa.
I don’t believe a word of this “Hillary would be even further ahead than Obama” rot. The votes that Obama has (allegedly) lost among ‘blue collar’ voters, he has picked up among independent voters who have no love for the Clintons – and more. Further, Obama has mobilised the African-American vote, which has helped put states like North Carolina in play. OK, so it’s unlikely that Obama will actually carry N.Carolina, but it’s forced McCain to spend money defending these wavering red states.
Oops, my mistake about the “no-one here gets a vote here” statement. Sorry about that chief. So far no-one has owned up to Ron changing their vote though. I think I’m on safer ground there.
Adoption of one vote one post would lead to a dramatic change in the landscape of these threads
Kakuru, do you want into our PB contest on guessing the totals on election night? If you do, see my post #62, this same thread. Post your replies here at your leisure and I will add them to my list. Cheers
Ron – you need to wake up and smell the roses on the nature of US media because quite frankly you seem to completely clueless about the way it operates.
Partisanship in large sections of the US media isn’t a smear, it’s a commercial reality they wear with pride!
The WSJ has always represented their readership which mostly comprises of white, wealthy males in the financial services and executive management sectors. Guess what – they vote Republican. Guess what – the WSJ writes for their audience.
Yes yes, settle down crowd – I know that it’s outrageous! How dare a commercial operation act… er… commercially!
Good grief what next, MSNBC catering to liberal progressives? Huffington Post catering to the Democrat base? CNN catering to middle class toffs that think they know more than they actually do?
Oh the shame!
Before we know it Fox News will start pandering to blue and lower white collar conservative workers and the over 55’s!!
Market segmentation eh, in a country with 200 million media consumers – whooda thunk it!
So, moving right along to the next bit of piffle – ACORN behaviour.
This is from ACORN itself:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/acorn-responds-senator-mccains-desperate/story.aspx?guid=%7B2C7D3623-2AED-4E30-B46B-B9D8886E96FF%7D&dist=hppr
The important part is this:
Now, nobody has disputed that. The usual suspects always leave that little bit out of their spiels because it doesn’t encourage the desired audience outrage – but they’ve never denied it.
The only one that seems to be denying it is you – but that’s more a reflection on the increasing shrillness of your allegations these days than any systemic investigative failure by the worlds media.
Further, you’ll find that ACORN isn’t the one getting charged, convicted or otherwise here, but individual ACORN workers that acted illegally by trying to make a quick buck by handing in fabricated voter registrations.
And the irony? ACORN itself was who identified most of them.
Ron, maybe you should check out the dark secrets behind Obama’s birthplace and birth certificate, because if you’re hell bent on riding the moonbat express into oblivion, you may as well do it first class.
Finally – just to correct something else, you went:
I can’t junk what I never had. I’m not some latte sipping, scivvie wearing soft left trendy member of the progressive egg head collective and never have been. I’m a socially libertarian bogan with a centre right economics bent, but with a big belief in the importance of recognising vagrancy costs and the importance of net benefit to human welfare through pareto optimality.
Comrade.
Not all of us live in an ideological bubble you know.
We will take anyone who wants to venture a guess. Doesn’t have to be dual citizens and doesn’t have to be only Obama supporters. However, if you are brave enough to believe McCain will win, you need to give us McCain’s EV total LOL
Hey, I’ve been saying McCain’s going to win all along. The only here I believe! I’m not so sure of myself to give precise EV’s but I think it’ll be close.
Among the states won by Bush (either ‘00 or ‘04), Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire are likely Obama gains, and probably Florida and Virginia as well. At this stage I don’t think Obama will win Missouri, and I think Ohio is in doubt. I would regard Nevada as a more likely pick-up than Ohio for Obama. So my exact EV count hinges on Colorado and Ohio. Hmmm… let me get my calculator out.
Possum
Market segmentation eh, in a country with 200 million media consumers – whooda thunk it!
And that really is the issue, when you arrive, you scan the airwaves and you hear some absolute rubbish, right wing nutters, and bible thumping wingnuts, dime a dozon, Ron would love it. And the music, big trucks, un-faithfull women and dogs.
But given time you find public radio and the congress channels and you do what that the rest do, select the media your comfortable with and life goes on.
At least that angry, unstable, rude, childish, erratic loser McCain won’t be President. It’s quite a feat to get thrashed in three debates in a row, four if you count Palin’s. Intrade is 84-16. Frankly, I think anyone who supported McCain should be apologising to everyone here for showing such poor judgement.
Can we do it?
YES WE CAN!
“Frankly, I think anyone who supported McCain should be apologising to everyone here for showing such poor judgement.”
How do you figure that?
“I think anyone who supported McCain should be apologising to everyone here for showing such poor judgement”
I couldn’t agree more.
Itep,
Financial crisis, Iraq war, worst health care, trillions in deficit, recession, SARAH PALIN. Reasons enough?
Miranda has a couple of funny comments re Palin in her column.
“There is an echo of bitchy high-school jealousy of the popular queen bee from the snarling, self-mutilating nerd and goths who vainly lusted after the cute boys she snared.”
Is she saying Palin spread it around?
Quote from Lette is priceless
There’s something wrong with her … She’s a post-feminist – she’s kept her Wonderbra and burnt her brain.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/miranda-devine/miranda-devine-on-poison-palin-brings-out/2008/10/15/1223750125257.html
Come on guys. McCain might be a dud but there’s no accounting for poor tast and poor judgement. Let those who have argued so passionately for his election feel their intense disappointment on election day when he gets the drubbing he and his fellow republicans so richly deserve. There’s no need for us to be rubbing their noses in it.
ltep
1. He’s going to lose by an humiliating margin.
2. He’s sold his soul to the Right.
3. He resorted to pathetic smears, and wasn’t even any good at that.
4. He made the most incompetent, cynical VP decision in history.
5. He’s run the most erratic, mixed message campaign ever.
6. His platform is to continue everything Bush did at a time when Bush’s approval was at record lows. If Bush is that bad, why would he copy everything Bush did and expect to win? That’s plain moronic.
7. He lost all three debates.
8. He’s been shown to be an angry, rude and unstable.
Dio,
Leaving aside the questionable correctness of some of your eight points (whilst acknowledging that some are undoubtedly true), surely that doesn’t mean McCain supporters have to apologise?!
PS I went with Obama some months ago, so none of this worries me all that much.
And the reason for voting for Obama is?
Exactly… I would probably prefer Obama to McCain (very slightly) but the arrogance of people expecting McCain supporters to apologise for daring to support one of two real choices for President of the United States of America is startling.
224 Diogenes
[1. He’s going to lose by an humiliating margin.
2. He’s sold his soul to the Right.
3. He resorted to pathetic smears, and wasn’t even any good at that.
4. He made the most incompetent, cynical VP decision in history.
5. He’s run the most erratic, mixed message campaign ever.
6. His platform is to continue everything Bush did at a time when Bush’s approval was at record lows. If Bush is that bad, why would he copy everything Bush did and expect to win? That’s plain moronic.
7. He lost all three debates.
8. He’s been shown to be an angry, rude and unstable].
Yes, but apart from all that he’s ok isn’t he?
Itep, to get rid of those neo con Republicans. Fair dinkum, I’d be voting for the cat next door against them if it was a candidate!
dyno and ltep
I should have included a
after that comment. 
In my opinion, anyone who still advocates voting for M ahead of O because H didn’t get the Dem nomination is not true to H or to any true left-wing ideology. I hope O utterly trounces M, and that the Repugs get obliterated in Congress, as they so richly deserve!!!
dyno
Which one of those comments don’t you agree with? 5 might have a bit much hyperbole but the rest are pretty straightforward.
I can see that Diogenes’ eight points are going to become famous, so here goes with the critique …
1. Possibly true, wait and see.
2. Maybe.
3. Yes, he should have stayed positive. I haven’t noticed the Democrats being pure either, though.
4. I agree.
5. Disagree. It’s been a crap campaign but several worse ones come to mind!
6. He’s the least Republican Republican they could find, it’s why he got picked. The whole Bush III thing, whilst a successful argument from a Democrat viewpoint, is insupportable in fact.
7. The consensus seems to be that he drew the third debate (I realise I’m nitpicking here).
8. He’s just a worse actor than most other politicians!
I’ve got a fair bit of time for McCain (though the Palin choice was utterly ludicrous) and I don’t really want to see him humiliated. No doubt about it, though, the world needs an Obama victory.
I enjoyed reading your views on O, H and M, D.
Somehow I think the world will carry on regardless of who is leader.
Who do you guys reckon is a better sort, Julie Collins or Sarah Palin?
Tbh I don’t even rate Palin so Julie wins by default. She’s definitely gotten better with age. Not that she’s old.
Perhaps if they stopped writing rubbish we wouldn’t have to
Juliem. I must say that I admire your sense of citizenship to be actively involved as a voter in your country of birth and as both a voter and party worker in your country of choice. Well done. It nearly brought a tear to my cynical eye to read you and jjjjulian posting your gratitude to your new nation. Good stuff both of you and long may you be happy here.
dyno
5. I’m too young to have followed enough campaigns but his has been worse than any I can remember going back to Bush/Dukakis. I accept that the “ever” was too much.
6. He had the opportunity to differentiate himself from BushII because he was a “mavericky maverick”. He didn’t do it. Give me one important difference between his stances and Bush’s.
7. He lost every poll (CNN 58-31, CBS 53-22 AND FOX “clear majority”) of undecideds on the third debate.
If you change 5 to “one of the most…” I’m sticking by my eight.
Finns
What’s going on in China? What happened to the Great Red Hope?
http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto101520081848176592
Let me have a shot at Dio’s 8 points:
1) Wait and see (and it depends what you classify as humiliating – Dole in ‘96 or Mondale in ‘84?)
Agree (although I think “unstable” is pushing things a bit…)
2) Disagree. He’s kept quite quiet on some of the key issues for the “right” – abortion (until tonight), death penalty, gun control, campaign finance reform.
3) I agree (on both counts) – but that’s normal in a Presidential campaign
4) Disagree. Palin is bad – Eagleton (McGovern’s first pick in 1972) was far FAR worse.
5) Disagree. Dukakis was terrible. Dole was bad. So was Kerry
6) Agree, but also agree with dyno that he is the least Republican Republican that the base would accept. He was by far the best candidate the GOP could have nominated this year.
7) Agree
Zogby national tracking poll
Obama 49 (up 1)
McCain 44 (steady)
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1590
Diog, dont worry about China. Are you trying to compete with Malcolm Turnbull on the ego stake?
SL
2. Palin has been on about abortion endlessly. Obama supports the death penalty so that’s not a wedge. The NRA have endorsed McCain. Just picking Palin instead of his preferred Lieberman showed he had sold out to the Right.
3. My comment was “incompetent, cynical”. Eagleton was a worse selection but not more incompetent AND cynical. Eagleton just had a bad mental health history. He wasn’t a cynical choice.
5. Again, my comment was “erratic, mixed message”. Dukakis, Kerry and Dole weren’t erratic or mixed-message. They were weak message.
I’m sticking by them.
Eagleton was only bad because he had a history of (mild, treatable) mental illness which he concealed from McGovern. Given the knowledge McGovern had, Eagleton was a perfectly sound choice – a moderate from a swing state. he would probably have made a perfectly competent VP, vastly better than the corrupt buffoon Spiro Agnew.
michael, thanks very much
. Don’t know that the Libs are happy to have me though but fortunately, they don’t take a litmus test of voting intentions when they issue naturalized citizenship 
….. My certificate has Amanda Vanstone’s stamped sig on it 
…….
My first voting election was Reagan/Carter 1980. The only two elections between then and now either country that I’ve looked forward to even remotely as much as I am already enjoying this one have been Clinton’s first in 1992 and Kevin 07 last year. In both cases, you could see the result coming kilometres away days ahead of time so it was, as is now the case, really easy to get “geared up” early. I turned down the chance to work in the Federal Election last year as I simply couldn’t stand not being able to be home to see the election returns as everything came in. It was my first Australian election that I was eligible to vote in. For all of Howard’s previous elections, I was still resident in the US so wasn’t able to vote. [Although my husband voted of course by postal vote]. I knew it would be a historic election so said “no thanks” when I was asked to work on the day. In the US, I’ve never worked on an election day as with the so many millions more people there, it is next to impossible to get “inside” in order to be able to do that.
But in 1992, I met Clinton first hand at one of his rallies about a week out from the election and was able to shake his hand. I’ve still got a picture here of him that night somewhere in the house. When election night came that year, I sat and watched with my then husband (now an ‘ex) and a mutual friend. The friend voted Bush, the ‘ex voted Perot, I voted Clinton. I don’t need to tell you who was drinking the most celebratory drinks that night
…. I don’t know anyone in Canberra well enough to invite anyone over for election celebrations here for the US election so will enjoy it myself with the family I guess (and online PB’ers).
Thanks again
Itep @ 226 “[And the reason for voting for Obama is?"]
Are you kidding Itep? Why should US voters going for Obama? Off the top of my head:
1. The way Obama was received around the world on his trip earlier in the year on its own tells us that the world’s attitude to the US will improve – no more a pariah.
2. The US (& the world) should be a safer place with Obama in the White House; that is, less belligerence, more engagement with the world = greater security for the voters’ children and less chance of them being packed off to useless war.
2. 89% of Americans say the country is going in the wrong direction, and Obama represents change to that direction on several fronts.
3. The health care plan (as weak as the Dem policy may be – the Repugs have nothing).
4. A more positive campaign with a Presidential bearing from Obama.
I think the answer to your question is in there somewhere, and the polls and markets tell us it is so.
I would add another reason: The current economic instability and fear gives a great springboard for Obama to implement change in the political and financial processes and in foreign policy beyond what could be expected of a reforming POTUS in more stable times, because key vested interests like the MIC have now lost their authority. This extends to the US’s unilateral interventionism around the world – eg the now prohibitive costs of adventurist wars, and the need to generally pull their collective head in and fix the financial mess. This is now an even greater opportunity than it was for a genuine reformer like Obama to get in there with a big mandate to really sort a few things out for the better in a chaotic period.
By the way I’m just back from two weeks in the States. As I was busy all the time, I am probably far less au fait with the ins and outs of what’s happened than all you stay-at-homes are.
But one key point which may or may not have been so obvious from Australia: no-one is thinking (very much) about the election, considering how close it is. Instead they are all (understandably) panicking about the markets and the economy.
No chance for McCain to catch up, that I can see. No-one’s even paying attention.
“This is now an even greater opportunity than it was for a genuine reformer like Obama”
Oh come on. Obama > McCain, but he’s no “genuine reformer”. I honestly feel for the people voting for Obama and hoping for genuine, tangible change for the better because I know it isn’t going to be delivered.
Adam
Wasn’t Eagleton’s illness fairly significant, although quite controllable? He needed electric shock treatment on several occasions when he was hospitalised. In those days, EST was used a lot more than today but it wasn’t first-line therapy. He was on thioridazine which is quite a powerful anti-psychotic (although it was given out like lolly water, my mum gave it to me as a kid to shut me up at night!).
McGovern’s daughter also had depression. That may have influenced his decision.
The proof is in the pudding and Eagleton did go on to have a long, successful career despite a very public mental health issue. So I’m sure he would have made a good VP.
It raises a great question about possible mental health issues in people in power. A huge number of countries leaders have had serious mental health problems. Lincoln had very severe depression but it didn’t stop him.
#250
The road to hell is well paved with good intentions. Obama has good intentions but under his Presidency, the division and conflict between the Blacks and Whites will make the Dubya years look like the tender years.
Yes I know Oz – they’re all politicians, but if Obama is willing to make changes the current climate provides him with greater ability to do so. If he chooses not to, I’ll be disappointed, but the world will still be a safer place simply because of the outside perception of Obama as a more rational and reasonable person than the outgoing neocons. In a sense, he will automatically have made the most important change just by being who he is, and getting elected.
I’m not as cynical as you are on the whole Obama presentation being hollow – and if 89% of voters want a change of direction, where’s the problem in giving it to them across the board?
235
The world would have carried on a lot better if Bush had not been leader
Darn @ 254,
I know, I know, I know
…… that is what makes the absolute pain of 2000 and the Supreme Court that much worse. You reap the karma you sow though so now those chickens are coming home to roost 
Yeah, and Hillary wouldn’t be a divisive figure. Oh please.
Heaven forbid!! The west has lost its mortgage over wisdom? Surely not.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/15/economics-china
Hahahaha, ahh such memories…
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=l63SRpGXBHE&eurl=http://www.viralvideochart.com/youtube/batman_vs_the_penguin_the_debate?id=l63SRpGXBHE
Survey USA- early voters- compared to current polling averages and 2004 result. A beautiful set of numbers!!
State Early Voters Current Avg. 2004
Georgia Obama +6 McCain +6 Bush +17
Iowa Obama +34 Obama +13 Bush +1
New Mexico Obama +23 Obama +7 Bush +1
North Carolina Obama +34 McCain +1 Bush +12
Ohio Obama +18 Obama +3 Bush +2
Jaundice view – I wasn’t simply calling Obama’s policies “hollow”. More importantly than his sincerity, I believe, is the fact that he’s going to hamstrung by the American oligarchy. For example, US Presidents since the end of WW2 have been slaves to the military and intelligence organisations. I don’t think that’s going to change with an Obama presidency. If the CIA want to intervene in a country, they will do so. If the army wants a war, they’ll get one. In fact, that’s even matched up with Obama’s rhetoric. One of reasons why I’m still slightly off Obama is his attempt to beef up his commander-in-chief credentials by threatening unilateral action in Pakistan. Unilateral military action in sovereign nations under the guise of “fighting terrorism” is Bush.
Oz @ 261 [US Presidents since the end of WW2 have been slaves to the military and intelligence organisations. I don’t think that’s going to change with an Obama presidency.]
I agree about the past, and about the general difficulties a POTUS faces, but I get the feeling there is going to be an unusually big lever in the mandate for change Obama is shaping to get, given his overt platform. On top of that the ruling ‘oligarchy’ you mention, including the military industrial complex, is in a position of relative weakness at this intersetion in US affairs. That’s my point – this is by far the best opportunity since WW2 to f*ck over the vested interests in favour of the American people.
On the Bin Laden/Pakistan thing I’d like to think that Obama will be measured if it comes to the point. Everything else in his approach on the record points to that.
Hopefully is rhetoric is just that, rhetoric. But it’s sad that he still feels the need, and there probably is the need, to say it to get elected
I hope I’m proved wrong and Obama completely reforms and reshapes the US.
No – Eagleton was my choice for worst VP pick not because he had previously undergone EST, but that he actively sabotaged the McGovern candidacy.
In April 1972 (before McGovern was officially nominated), Eagleton told Bob Novak (on the condition of not being named) that McGovern stood for “amnesty, abortion and legalization of pot”. As a result, McGovern became known as the candidate of “amnesty, abortion and acid”. Unfortunately for McGovern, Novak didn’t reveal Eagleton being the source of the quote until 2007…
P.S. I still think Quayle was a more incompetent VP than Palin would ever have been.
No matter what you think of Palin, I’m pretty sure that she could spell “potato” correctly…
Oz – hear, hear! I avoided that word “hope”, but in the end it’s all we’ve got I suppose.
Great clip from the debate. McCain truly DOES look like he was caught in the headlights.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/15/final-debate-mccains-deer_n_135063.html
Oh OK, I guess Obama should just change his skin colour then.
SL @ 265 -[...Palin, I’m pretty sure that she could spell “potato” correctly…]
Only in the context of a “potato gun”.
Here’s Sarah demonstrating a double spud gun (a couple of years ago by the look):
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/830992/bikini_girl_shoots_twin_barrel_potato_gun/
C’mon juliem dish the dirt! “shake his hand”, you can tell us what really happened
Pollster.com has changed Virginia to lean Obama. He is now up to 333 votes.
Geez, what’s next Alaska???!
On intrade BO is 84.6, and 364 votes.
I think we can officially start talking “by how far”.
Possum #214
“It is ACORN that has REPORTED almost all of the issues regarding voter registration cards”
Reported ? No , another false statement by Possum It is th Democrat & Republican State authorities that ar instigating investigating fraud of what Acorn supplied them , not Acorn an innocent offering info as follows:
Quotes Wall Street Journal 14/10/08
“The Michigan Secretary of State told the press in September that Acorn HAD SUBMITTED “a sizeable number of duplicate and fraudulent applications.”
Earlier this month, Nevada’s Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller REQUESTED A RAID on Acorn’s offices…,
Officials in Ohio ARE INVESTIGATING voter fraud connected with Acorn,..
Florida’s Seminole County is WITHHOLDING Acorn registrations that appear fraudulent.
New Mexico, North Carolina and Missouri ARE LOOKING INTO hundreds of dubious Acorn registrations. Wisconsin IS INVESTIGATING Acorn employees for, according to an election official, “making people up or registering people that were still in prison.”
Indiana, county election board “All the signatures looked exactly the same,..”
All of these Democrat & Republican officials hav acted on there initive and previously hav convcitions of fraud against Acorn Your earlier post #124 falsely claiming Acorn OBEYS th law was similarly as inaccurate & exposed in my #204
As to your previous innuendos against New Yourk Times & ABC News /me and now with Wall Street Journal its your credibility not theres that is now questioned As to your personal attacks I’m unconcerned & un moved Obama’s 832 ,000 payment to Acorn per Electral Commission was to assist Acorn getting out th vote ie.to do exactly what 11 States & there officals ar investigating Acorn for fraudulently doing
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394051071230749.html
Obama is campaigning in the red states this weekend – Virginia, Florida, Missouri etc.
Hey Grog!
I’m going to pick 2 states as sleepers or possible shock Obama wins:
Montana and North Dakota!
Ron: still peddling nonsense from some dodgy right wing web site!
Ronster, why are there only voter fraud investigations occurring in states where Obama is leading? That doesn’t sound like a “core ‘left’ policy” to me.
Oh, by the way, thanks for providing “core ‘right’ policy” talking points. I don’t have to visit FoxNews anymore, I can just read your contributions.
Do you think he will win Missouri and North Carolina? (I doubt he will need them)
Well North Dakota might vote for BO just to distance itself from Palin and her Fargo-ish accent!
I give Obama a chance of picking up Missouri – the Democrats gained a Republican senate seat there in 2006, but they need to get 80% of the vote in urban areas, because the rural parts go for the Republicans.
Supposedly Obama’s internal polls show him 2 points ahead in Montana, although this isn’t yet reflected in published polls.
What are the odds that McCain will carry less than 10 states?
More depressing reading for the anti-Obamaphiles here:
http://electoral-vote.com/
Robin Williams impersonated it on Letterman a few weeks ago, and compared it to that film as well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUm_aSrpS7k&feature=related
I also noticed some posts callling for McCain supporters to appologise for suporting McCain
I take issue with these posts also on principal I stated immediately after th Primarys when Obama won and my second choice (after fisrt choice Gore) Hillary had lost that i wouldn’t suport obama for many reasons then stated , and of course I’d never support any Republcian anyway McCain or otherwise
However to expect those that did suport McCain genuinely to apologise is a condesending cultural attitude On US thread when Obama clinched his win over Hillary I did nt appologise , but I did post congratulations to him & my blog enemies for winning without qualification Unuusal standards here
Ron: were there ever any apologies for attacks on those who are supporting Obama?
Haven’t you wondered why so many felt the need to go to the other place?
I also noticed these as well.
PLAGIARISM! You are copying Adam’s preferences. While this makes sense, because you are his designated attack dog, I think you could still PRETEND to think for yourself.
Why not, your attacks on Obama are all core ‘right’ policy talking points, why not go the whole way and support McCain?
Define “cultural attitude”.
No there haven’t been, and Ron has conducted most of the attacked by ad hominem arguments that brand Obama supporters as “liberal” (even though Ron believes in left wing policies) “elitist” and somehow un-Australian!?
Of course, if Obama was Australian he would be ineligible for the presidency.
SNIP: Unproductive comment deleted – The Management.
Irish betting agency closes its book on the U.S. Presidential election, declares Obama the winner:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24509365-23109,00.html
SNIP: Unproductive comment deleted – The Management.
Ron, I would appreciate it if you toned down your attacks. State your case by all means, but you don’t gain anything by going on about Possum’s “false claims” and “lack of credibility”.
Rasmussen daily tracking poll
Obama 50
McCain 46
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Muhlenberg College: Obama 53, McCain 37 in Pennsylvania.
Gallup: 49-43. Little bit of a narrowing going on perhaps?
William @ 293,
Nah …. just the rest of the market getting a little edgy at that Irish agency that paid out on an Obama win already per the link posted here earlier
…..
Re 270,
Grog, at that time in 1992 I was taking some grad level classes at the local university. A direction with my education I ultimately ended up not pursuing but that isn’t relevant to this discussion now. One of my professors also happened to be the mayor the town. Mayor in that town was a part time position so university prof was his main paying job. Democratic mayor too
….. After the final presidential debate that year, Clinton held a campaign rally in Ann Arbor. It was free and open to the public but to get up close in the first few rows, you needed tickets. So you had to know someone. I got a pair of tickets from my professor. I took my mum with me. My then husband (now ‘ex) was voting Perot (the independant that year) so he had no inclination to go. We had to get there early and wait almost 2 hours for Clinton and his travelling crowd to show up. By the time Clinton spoke, it was estimated that there were10 to 15 thousand people crowded in and around the area listening. He spoke on the steps of one of the major campus buildings and people just got in where ever there was space. The university put up loud speakers so more people could hear him because there were way more people there than could actually see him because the crowd was so spread out. We were in the front row and after the speech, he came down off of the stage and walked the crowd right across the front shaking hands of those in the first few rows. The picture I got was one my mother took and it shows Clinton from the chest up. He had just moved past me and was reaching back to shake someone elses hand.
It is all about who you know as had I not had that particular professor, I would have been at the campaign stop but not in a position to shake his hand
……
What about the Obama supporters here apologizing to Hillary Clinton and her supporters. They claimed that Hillary’s attacks on Obama during the Primaries will be used by the Repugs to attack Obama and derail his POTUS bid.
The facts are that the fight with Hillary has toughened Obama and now Hillary is helping him big time.
Hillary is smelling roses. While the two Yeti smell like they have been on the Nepal plain for too long and forget to wash.
We demand an apology.
This is why Ohio is still so stubbornly redneck territory …… and fortunately, while pockets of these sorts of folks won’t go away, they will not swing the election. The majority of voters have moved beyond this rubbish. link for the story as it includes the video to follow the textual remarks below – http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/mccainpalin-supporters-let-their-rac
Indeed
… let the polls do the talking for the rest of us 
Does anyone have a graph of the RCP poll average? I’ve only been following it for a few days but there’s definitely a narrowing going on.
The average of yesterday’s polls is only Obama +5.2. Obviously that’s still a significant lead, but certainly represents a comeback from the +8, +9 a week or so ago.
Oz –
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
A pause is all – wait until the post third debate polls for a likely further jump for Baz.
Ronster
I saw them too. Shocking! Perish the thought that they were directed at you. You have never given any indication that you were a McCain supporter. You have repeatedly said you would abstain. I might add that the initial author of the “call to apology” added that (s)he was being facetious.
Finnster
I was waiting for that and you are partly right. Hillary’s CIC comment was used by McCain, and I think that she went way beyond the pale with that one possibly costing her the VP spot. McCain used Hillary as cover for his Ayers attacks but Hillary just lent him a veneer of reasonableness, and I don’t blame her.
All in all, Hillarys repeated attacks on Obama so closely resembled the Republican and McCain machine that everyone had heard them before thereby making them impotent. Hillary hasn’t hurt Obama, she helped him.
You were right and I was wrong. I apologise on behalf of the Obama campaign.
Here’s an amusing story about the true nature of Joe-the-republican-stooge-plumber in the NY Times.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/joe-in-the-spotlight/?hp
It turns out that Joe is NOT a plumber, is loaded, and owes back taxes. Wonder why someone like that would support “Honest John” McCain?
Diog, apology accepted.
There will be extra cocoa leaves from Cuzco for you to chew on as the high obama altitude sickness set-in on Nov4.
The fat lady might not be on stage, but she is sure making a racket back stage.
A bloke who earns $250,000 to $280,000 a year having a whinge about a tax rise is a bit rich. Someone get a wrench coz I think this stunt’s sprung a leak!
I’m not apologising to anyone for anything, thanks very much. I still think Obama is a second-rate candidate. He is winning only because of the crash and consequent discrediting of the Republican brand. Any Democrat would be ahead in these circumstances, and either Gore or Clinton would be further ahead. If the crash hadn’t happened McCain might well have kept the lead he established in early September. I agree that McCain has been a worse than expected candidate and that the Palin choice has turned out not to be ill-advised. Even as it is I expect there will be a narrowing in the last week. WV has already gone back to McCain and I expect NC and MO will also do so. The only Bush states that are in the bag are IA and NM. The battlefields will be CO, NV, FL, VA and OH. Obama only needs one of them and I expect he will get at least one, but not by much.
304
Obama’s tax plan gives more to those earning under $250,000 per year than does McCain’s, and that by the way includes Joe the non-plumber:
“All told, voters making under $250,000 a year represent 98 percent of the electorate, so they’ll be picking the next president. ”
Therefore I can’t see tax being a winner for the old dope between now and E-day.
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/16/the-real-meaning-of-joe-the-plumber.aspx
Misinformation about it was his only chance, and has been his tactic so far
Fortunately McCain is a fourth-rate candidate, and Palin is a 292348343th-rate candidate.
They both ARE currently ahead, Gore is leading in the 8th dimension, and Clinton is well ahead in the 11th dimension.
What you really seem to be saying is that a white candidate would be further ahead. Well, wow, what a startling insight.
How do you know this? The 2 most recent polls have McCain ahead by 2 (a statistical tie) and Obama up by 8. That puts that state very much in play.
Oh great to see that you have finally seen the light regarding Michigan.
Obama has hit 85 on Intrade for the first time.
ShowsOn are you seriously accusing Adam of racism?
SNIP: Abusive comment deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Abusive comment deleted – The Management.
310 – No, I don’t think he is. He’s only accused Adam of accusing US voters of racism. It’s the old chestnut of the roundly discredited ‘Bradley Effect’ raising its head like Putin again
For example: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
You can do better than this! This contribution was so second-rate.
I don’t think Clinton and Gore would be further ahead than Obama because they’re white, so I’m not accusing anyone of anything (except ShowsOn of being a SNIP, but we already knew that). They’d be further ahead because they have superior qualifications to be President.
But I don’t know why you’d assume that the only things that Gore and Hilary Clinton would have in common, or conversely, the only thing that would set them apart from Obama would be the colour of their skin.
Comment directed at ShowsOn and co of course.
This is pure speculation, that – unlike your hilarious claims about Michigan – can never be tested.
Great work! If you lose you win, if you win you win!
Please go back to favourably comparing McCain with Churchill, it was even funnier.
What about the characteristics that Obama has that are SUPERIOR to Gore and Clinton? Like the fact he isn’t a failed presidential candidate, or a former first lady that a lot of people hate. Do we ever stop to think of those attributes? Do we ever speculate that maybe, just maybe, Obama would be further ahead? If we are going to just speculate based on no evidence whatsoever, then we can let our speculations lead us in any direction we like.
Sure, sure. By at least 45.56% in the polls I reckon. Those juicy sour grapes must taste soooo good!
315 – Except that Obama has that key qualification for this election that the white roadkill didn’t have – the embodiment of, and platform for, change. And change is what 89% of the voters want.
That’s what the polls say, as opposed to empty speculation about baseless hypotheticals.
I’m not arguing either way… I’m just perplexed why you’d make this comment:
“What you really seem to be saying is that a white candidate would be further ahead. Well, wow, what a startling insight.”
It makes no difference to me whether Gore, Clinton or Obama are President of another country.
If Adam is allowed to speculate based on no evidence whatsoever, then surely I am entitled to do exactly the same. I am SO SORRY if I offended you for basing my speculation around the issue of race. But why not, it isn’t any less plausible than all the “Hillary would be leading by more” claims that are purely based on speculation.
Actually I can’t think of anything that will put an end to the neocon period faster that a Obama win, and his skin color is part of it. Clinton couldn’t even win the democratic primary, Gore wasn’t in the race so why the mention.
To heal America he really is the best option.
So he is the best option merely for what he is not… he is not a neocon. Fair enough.
ltep, Rudd got in because he was not Howard, people get so fed up they will try something new, even if the outcome is unknown.
That’s why I said fair enough. When things are so bad it seems you may as well take a stab in the dark I suppose.
I agree, plus, I have absolutely no idea what McCain would do. So it isn’t like Obama is the only known unknown in this election.
Obama is just a lot younger, a lot calmer than McCain, and installing a Democrat would clean out all the Republican deadwood that has stuffed up most parts of the U.S. Government.
That’s racist!!!!
My own view is a the drovers dog could have won against McCain, the right wing nutters are on the nose and McCain is just too old. The big issue was, who could win the primary; Clinton didn’t.
Rudd was not an “unknown”. There is no comparison between Rudd and Obama, don’t try to make one up pleaaaaaase.
#330
It’s quite clear it would take a fair bit more than a “drovers dog” to win against McCain, especially since he’s still polling in the mid-forties when absolutely everything that is going on domestically and globally is working against the Republicans.
Opposition front-bencher to P.M. in 6.5 years isn’t exactly common.
State Senator to President in 4 years is even less common…
If only he wasn’t forced to pick Palin…
I see the Republican establishment forcing him to pick Palin as the ultimate payback for his “Maverick” years.
If he wins, that will just demonstrate how EXCEPTIONAL a candidate he was.
Or just how crap a candidate McCain was…
Ron,
Less ranting, more listening – you’re getting things arse about.
The procedures for some of the states that ACORN has to abide by can be found here:
http://www.publicintegrity.org/blog/entry/885/
ACORN reports the suspicious registrations it receives from its canvassers to the authorities.It flags those suspicious registrations for the State authorities and sends them in to authorities in separate bags. It does this because it is required by law to send in ALL registrations it receives, including ones it knows are dodgy and ones that have information missing.
This is how the State authorities become aware of most of the fraudulent registrations in the first place – ACORN reports them!
For instance:
From LA Times:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-acorn15-2008oct15,0,6539990.story
From USA Today:
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/10/the-acorn-chron.html
How about Factcheck.org:
Here’s an interesting story about the GOP having the same problems in California with their voter registration drive and how it compares to ACORN. Again, the same reality pops out:
http://www.alternet.org/story/102933/
ACORN isn’t the one perpetrating fraud here, they are actually the victim of fraud since it is ACORN that ends up paying employees that provide fabricated registrations – paying employees for services that aren’t effectively provided.
For anyone that’s interested in US electoral law, Rick Hasen runs an excellent blog that goes through all the ins and outs of this (and other things):
http://electionlawblog.org/
It makes one appreciate the Australian Electoral Commission like never before!
But what really shits me to tears about all of this is that we have people dumping buckets of pure fantasy on an organisation whose driving purpose is to expand the democratic franchise. Is there anything more detestable on the civic society front than attempting to prevent people from having a say in the selection of their political leaders?
I can’t think of one.
Ron, get over that WSJ piece, it’s not even a piece of reporting, it’s an Opinion Column for gawds sake. You may as well be quoting Planet Janet.
ACORN hasn’t been convicted of fraud – it’s employees have, because ACORN itself was a victim of fraud by those same employees. Most of those ACORN employees prosecuted for creating fraudulent voter registrations were done so with the assistance of ACORN – ACORN dobbed most of them in!
Get it?
This.isnt.rocket.science.
Your desperation to characterise Obama as the root of all evil is letting you be played.for.a.sucker
NO YOU CAN’T SAY THIS! McCain is this century’s Winston Churchill! It is a PROVEN FACT, no speculation whatsoever.
Don’t encourage him!
oz
I fail to see you point, Rudd was a diplomatic in politics for a few years, Obama was a Lawyer who has been in the senate for a few years. There really is bugger all difference.
“You know something”, that is the way it’s going to be with the next generation they haven’t had sixty years to do stuff.
Why would Obama get greedy and look at ND, GA, WV and KY? Aren’t there enough states like CO and VA make sure you win, rather than spreading resources into irrelevant states? All he needs is 270 EV. It makes him look overconfident going for too much. And there does seem to be a very slight narrowing, probably about 1% over a week.
fredn
The Rudd vs Obama comparisons are uncanny. Similar experience levels. Only party leaders for a very short time. Both new enough to avoid being career politicians, and resonsibility for past crappy decisions. Both VERY disciplined and calm. Both up against very entrenched unpopular right wing leaders. Smear campaigns against them like water off a duck’s back (or possibly even helping them).
This could just be spin to scare the McCain campaign.
But if it is true, then surely McCain will need to respond and shift resources as well. McCain is still campaigning in blue states, which suggests to me he knows Colorado and maybe Virginia and Florida are already lost.
Intrade have remade their map to make the degrees of support easier to differentiate (more colour shades):
http://www.intrade.com/
Diogenes, Howard (surprisingly) never reached the depths of popularity as Bush has.
You could also say a common point between Rudd and Obama is their natural ability with sloganeering and spin.
Although I marginally preferred Obama for not especially strong reasons, I think that Hillary would have been a fine candidate and an excellent President if elected, which she would have been.
However there is no point in being misty-eyed about her negatives. The fact is that she energises the Republican base even more than Sarah Palin, and the chances of her winning in a landslide were always low. If elected President, she would start with probably a record unfavourable rating for a first-term President.
Clearly experience is not the only criterion in being either a successful candidate or a good President. History has shown that Obama is an appealing candidate to Democratic primary voters, and so far is proving to be an appealing candidate to general voters.
ShowsOn @ 323,
You have my support
….. lots of things I’ve read on the blog today and I’ve thought about replying to them, some in outright anger. I get a reply composed and think “no” better not, I don’t want to go there. Glad you’ve the courage to stand up and say what you think on the racial overtones of this election home stretch. Good on you. 
{it isn’t that I don’t have the courage, but (1) I’m flat out today and (2) I don’t want William to “snip” my train of thought so I’ll piggyback onto yours 
}
For what it is worth, my .02 on the Hillary vs. Obama debate. I think it is a non issue. I said months ago that I thought that the US was more sexist than they were racist and I’ve been proven right. I.e the candidates chance of getting the Dem. nomination fell along these lines in this order: white man, black man, white woman, black woman. Since Obama has shown himself to be a capable bloke, there isn’t any way that Hillary was going to get in in the end. Quite simply, the less sophisticated parts of the Democratic party {I, for myself, can’t call them rednecks in the Democratic party, will reserve that term for the Republican equivelent, at least “our side” are voting the right party in the end
} would rather elect a man of either race before they would elect a woman of either race.
For the Hillary against a Republican debate, i.e IF she had been the nominee, she would still win because with the economy in the tank, no Republican would win. BUT because of the stronger barrier against sexism rather than racisim, the margin would in fact have ultimately ended up being much closer than it will turn out to be with Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket. For those who think otherwise, you go live in the US for awhile, especially in parts of Ohio and West Virginia, and you would quickly change your tune. That is a window into the US political psyche that you simply can not get unless you’ve lived there for awhile. “Joe Six pack” isn’t going to let any woman tell him what to do period end of sentance. Don’t even know if jj would have had that in California where he is from but I gather from his earlier responses that he’s been here in Oz much longer than I have so his first hand experience with the USA is much more removed than mine is.
Apologies for not having deleted ShowsOn’s idiotic comment at 312 much, much sooner.
ShowsOn, you are arguing a very good case and I agree with your sentiments. You know when you’re winning a debate when the opposing side start the personal attacks. Well done.
ltep
I agree. Rudd and Obama are/ were both masters of making enough voters feel comfortable with them to make the leap into the unknown. They are both eminently “plausible”. They don’t go off message. They fight back but in a controlled way. And both look more “presidential” than their seasoned opponents. They’re pretty remarkable politicians really.
As an exercise in comprehension, Ron should try to work out why the sentences
“It is ACORN that has REPORTED almost all of the issues regarding voter registration cards”
and
“Officials in Ohio ARE INVESTIGATING voter fraud connected with Acorn”
are not mutually exclusive.
Here’s another article published by a respectable newspaper for Ron to look at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/oct/13/election-acorn-voter-fraud
as if you needed the support showson
but I fully agree with you as well
Adam: get over it, your sour grapes and anti-Obama rhetoric is getting very tiresome!
I thought someone of your obvious intellect would have more sense than to get into bed with the likes of Ron!
At the risk of repeating myself, the Guardian piece that I cited earlier makes an excellent point. Even if some fradulant registrations slip through, these will not result in fradulant votes being cast.
“So, unless Donald Duck shows up with his ID, he won’t be voting this November.”
either will Mao Zedong (unless you mean Mao Zedong, plumbing contractor, from Bismarck North Dakota.)
lol, as if that will stop Ron and Adam bleating
evan14 speaks as if to not be in love with Obama is a crime. It’s quite reasonable not to like a candidate and those who do not shouldn’t be told to get over it. All some people choose to do is point out Obama is not that amazing, which is thought to be ‘anti-Obama rhetoric’.
Nice editorial endorsement of Obama from the WaPo. Note the first sentence, which many others have agreed with.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603436.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
They are going a lot further than that
So much for Joe the plumber
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24509600-5012572,00.html
Why exactly does this man deserve to have his personal details strewn about in the media like this?
Dario,
So much for John McCain
Um, didn’t he front Obama in front of TV cameras and tell him his name, and what he did? Opened the door I think…
He also agreed to newspaper and TV interviews
It still, in my eyes, does not mean he needs to have his tax details made public.
They were public already
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aC4j3T5.s_eQ&refer=politics
Ohio has moved into the McCain column on my polling aggregates, following the latest Rasmussen poll showing the result at 49-all. The new poll has meant I have knocked polling from October 8 out of the aggregate, hence the shift to McCain. This is the first time a state has moved to McCain since I started doing this on October 1: in this time, West Virginia and North Dakota have moved to the Obama column.
But why does that need to be reported by the media? It is a matter between the state, the court and the individual and is not the business of anybody else.
Are you kidding? This is what the media does! He publicly claimed he was a plumber and that Obama’s tax plan was going to hurt him. The media checked out his story and lo and behold he isn’t a registered plumber, owes back taxes and doesn’t earn as much as he cliamed he did, so Obama’s tax plan won’t hurt him. It’s pretty standard stuff, sheesh.
And as for it being a matter between the him, the court and noone else, that’s total BS. Court proceedings are reported EVERY DAY in this country and in the US. If the court decides to seal the details then it’s a different story, but those records are clearly public domain.
Well I obviously have a different view of the role of the media than you do. I don’t see the role of the media to intrude into the private lives of individuals. Who cares if some random person makes a false claim to a presidential candidate at some media event? The private life of that individual is certainly of no importance in comparison to real electoral issues.
#370
Something very strange is going on for W.Virginia and N.Dakota (and N.Carolina too) to sidle over to the Obama column before OH does. Either a few of those polls are dodgy, or some of those red states are showing unprecedented volatility. I’m prepared to believe that swathes of redneck-ness in OH are holding this state back from voting Obama; but on that score, those other states (WV, ND, NC) should be even more hostile.
This election isn’t over yet, folks. If McCain can hold Ohio, and claw back Colorado and Florida, we have a real contest on our hands. I don’t really believe N.Carolina, W.Virginia or N.Dakota are Obama prospects. Having said that, I’d be quite happy if Obama could pick up one of these three.
I’d go the dodgy polls hypothesis, Kakuru. Note the small samples I’m going on in WV and ND.
“Who cares if some random person makes a false claim to a presidential candidate at some media event? The private life of that individual is certainly of no importance in comparison to real electoral issues.”
I’m with Dario on this one. Itep, “Joe the plumber” only became an electoral issue because McCain chose this guy as his poster boy for criticising Obama’s tax plan. If it’s anyone’s fault for sensationalising this guy’s private life, the fault lies with McCain. McCain’s campaign should have done their homework before propelling “Joe the plumber” to the national stage.
McCain still loses in that situation, assuming Obama picks up Iowa, New Mexico and Virgnina (where he’s up by 8.1 on the RCP average). Obama will still tie McCain if he doesn’t win Virginia but instead wins Nevada.
As for the big swings in ND and WV vs small swing in OH – this is almost certainly due to the difference in ad spend for the McCain campaign in those states. McCain has been plastering OH with ads (which makes sense), but has barely done anything in ND and WV. Hence, the bigger movement to Obama there.
As for NC, it’s completely different to ND and WV. Whilst it does have a rural white component in the western part of the state, it also has a lot more African American voters, urban centres (Greensboro, Raleigh, Charlotte, Durham) and transplanted Yankees than either ND or WV. These demographics play much better for Obama – hence his competitiveness in the state.
Me too, William. WV and ND are not turning blue any time soon.
Riiiight. So any old Obama supporter could go up to McCain and say he killed their kid, and the media should just take it at face value and not investigate at all? Give me a break. You’re worse than Ron.
kakuru, McCain can’t make a clean choice on character for anything in this campaign, can he?
….. palin, this guy, well at least we can say mccain is reliable in that respect … reminds me of the line Lindsay Tanner used in QT this session, don’t remember what day it was, he said the opposition was only consistent in their hypocrisy 
#378
Yes, in those respects N.Carolina has a similar demographic profile/trends to Virginia. Except Virginia is further ahead. Nevertheless, N.Carolina is similar to W.Virginia and N.Dakota in still being predominantly white & conservative – and in being a hard task for Obama to wrest away from McCain.
WV was one of the bluest states until Bush. It voted for Clinton in ‘92 and ‘96, Dukakis in ‘88 and Carter in ‘76 and ‘80.
Dario… you’re equating someone fudging details of their life to attack the tax policies of Obama to someone making a completely false assertion, involving a serious crime, to another candidate? Try a different analogy.
Why should a nobody fudging details of their life for making a serious crime allegation warrant further investigation by the media, but a nobody fudging details of their life making a tax policy attack not? Seems like double standards to me. If you’re going to make a claim against someone in the public domain using your own details as the basis for it then you better expect some scrutiny if it turns out to be a steaming pile. Welcome to the real world.
I think NC is more like VA rather than WV (for the demographic reasons outlined @ 378)
Obama is further ahead in VA because:
1. Northern Virginia is now effectively a suburb of Washington, DC – which means its much more of a swing area.
2. Virginia has a smaller rural white area – its contained in the Shenadoah Valley
3. Virginia has a large metropolitan area – Richmond, as well as smaller metro areas in Virginia Beach and Arlington.
Anyone out there who follows astrology?
….. following is referring to McCain …..
BOTLO for something happening around October 22nd
….
“WV was one of the bluest states until Bush. It voted for Clinton in ‘92 and ‘96, Dukakis in ‘88 and Carter in ‘76 and ‘80.”
True. But WV is very socially conservative, and the national Democratic Party is seen as increasingly progressive (’liberal’) – at least in the eyes of many West Virginians. Although the Dems do well at a state level, West Virginians tend to view the national party very differently. If Obama can woo WV back to the Dem column, it’d be a real coup. But I don’t see that happening. Over the past generation the Dems (at a national level) have lost traction in the South, because the GOP are better (usually, not invariably) at appealling to their ingrained social conservative values. Socially conservative Dems do get up, especially at state level; but at a national level they’re increasingly identified with their East Coast/West Coast stablemates.
Following on from that, should a Senate seat from WV become vacant some time soon (which may happen – Bobby Bird isn’t getting any younger) – I reckon the Dems will find it very hard to hold on to WV in the Senate. Genuine Blue Dogs are a dying breed.
“I think NC is more like VA rather than WV (for the demographic reasons outlined @ 378)”
I agree, completely. But neither NC or WV will fall to Obama, whereas VA looks like a slam-dunk at this stage.
The 23/6 website has a “Comment of the Day” feature. I’m linking the URL to the current one for October 16th (US time). Check it now before it cycles off LOL as it is short, sweet and to the point. I can’t cut and paste the content though with the [] feature as it would be caught up in William’s sin bin because of bad
….
words
http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/16/236_comment_of_the_day_9594.php
Hahahaha that is hilarious. So succinct.
Also from 23/6, also NSFW: John McCain’s Voicemail to Barack Obama. “Geez, I’m black just like that Kanye Diggity Dogg!”
Re 392,
OMG ….. that is a good one, I started listening but had to quit as the kids were around, need to load it up again after they go to bed since it isn’t G rated
Juliem @ 348
You are spot on that in USA sexism trumps racism.
Every year I visit rels in Repub. congressional districts (CA and C0), and that’s where one encounters a plethora of Stepford Wives and males with 1950’s superiority attitudes. The ongoing battle for equal-pay for women for the same work is part and parcel of this.
I’m still enjoying the post-debate euphoria, and I assume Obama will get another small bounce in polls by the weekend, followed by a return to the current level by November. Not that I pay a scintilla of attention to the day-by-day noise of nation-wide polls: full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
McCain’s attacks, whining and erratic demeanor were discomforting, if not offputting. More importantly, any undecided Hillary voters he needs will not be pleased by his SCOTUS Judge appointment “qualifications” and his women’s health gaffe.
from the nyt
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/us/politics/17smith.html?ref=us
“His rival, Senator Barack Obama, then made a confession about his past associations. “John McCain is onto something,” he said. “There was a point in my life when I started palling around with a pretty ugly crowd, I’ve got to be honest. These guys were serious deadbeats; they were lowlifes; they were unrepentant no-good punks. That’s right: I’ve been a member of the United States Senate.””
I don’t know very much about this ACORN business, but these accusations sound to me like something straight out of the republican dirty bag of tricks.
Any mob that would besmerch the war record of John Kerry to win an election the way they did in 2004 would do or say anything. It will be good to see them cop a good hiding for their trouble in a couple of weeks time.
Juliem 387
I don’t know about western astrology but consider Chinese astrology:
2000 – year of the corrupt judge
2004 – year of the idiot
2008 – year of the repairman
So I think its looking good for Obama, after the last two election years obviously favoured Bush.
This video is well worth seeing. Both McCain and Obama are very funny.
McCain
Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/16/the-last-laugh-mccain-oba_n_135454.html
What about the personal attack it was made in response to at 311?
Deleted that also, sorry I didn’t do so at the time. That said, utterly baseless accusations of racism are a higher order of offence.
I must respectfully disagree with those brave souls who are saying “it’s not over”.
The election has been struggling to make it into the first five minutes of MSM TV news bulletins. It’s all about the economy and the markets.
It’s over, and McCain may as well start scaling back any personal stuff right now, in the hope that President Obama will see him as Arnie Vinick and give him a more interesting job than being a Senator.
“The election has been struggling to make it into the first five minutes of MSM TV news bulletins” – in the US, that is.
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby national tracking poll for Friday:
Obama 49 (steady)
McCain 44 (steady)
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49G0V320081017
Here’s a good summary of the states in play.
Of the Kerry states, McCain is still looking at PA or NH. (I just don’t understand his obsession with PA. He’s 13% behind there. It’s gone buddy. Even the RNC isn’t doing ads in NH so they know it’s gone)
Both sides have now given Iowa and NM to Obama, despite Macca-Crazy talk about winning Iowa recently.
Team Obama reckon CO and VA are their tickets to the White House.
Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri are realistic and help stretch the Repugs.
Nevada, West Virginia and Montana are more for annoyance value. I’m surprised Obi isn’t going after NV harder.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603617.html?hpid=topnews
Dyno – Sorry if I’m not so eager to completely write-off an election because the MSM are shuffling their stories around…
I believe Virginia is the key state this time. If it goes to Obama, this thing is over, because Iowa and New Mexico are already in the bag, and McCain has got no chance of picking up any Kerry states, certainly not Pennsylvania.
Ohio is still too close for my liking, I think Obama will need to send Hillary down there.
I am slightly confused as to why no deep South states are in play. More than 30% of the population of Louisiana, Georgia and Mississippi are black. These are some of the most disenfrachised people in America and – particualrly in Louisiana – there is no love lost for the Republican party.
We hear about the “huge” number of black voters being key in North Carolina, but black people only account for 20% of that state. So why not in the three above? Louisiana voted for Clinton twice, and Georgia did once, so why not Obama?
Just been announced that Colin Powell is going to be on NBC’s Meet The Press on Sunday. Could it be candidate endorsment time?
“We are 19 days away from changing this country. But for those who are getting a little cocky, I have two words for you: New Hampshire,” he told a rain-soaked rally of 4,100 people in the toss-up state”
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jr3qSUI1vTRzZapZybgAnJ_cLzEQ
Diog, how do you sleep at night? The China Syndrome is a notion that refers to a possible extreme result of a financial meltdown in which toxic products breach the barriers below them and flow downwards through the floor of the Wall St building. The origin of the phrase is the facetious concept that toxic products from an American financial institutions may melt through the crust of the earth and reach China. This concept and reference however is a phrase limited to the popular understanding of US financial power and has no technical or scientific bearing whatsoever. (with an apology to Wiki)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JJ18Cb01.html
Gee though Chinese certainly know how to run capitalism.
Grant @ 407,
I would be wondering the same thing and I lived in the US for 43 years. Granted, it wasn’t in the deep south, but still, your wonderings are quite valid …. Particularly Georgia, as they have a demonstrated demographic that will vote for the Dems, the Carter voters. I would like one Carter voter [alas I don't know any in person
] to please explain to me why McCain is a better option for them than Obama is.
LA Times now onboard along with Washington Post
…..
In the interest of fairness, I post this for the right wing PB’ers out there ….. someone was asking about a potential narrowing of the polls out tehre earlier this week, herein might be some of the answer to that …
Ohio Republicans can get stuffed according to the Supreme Court
Oh dear, someone was wasting their money
Hmmmmm … not a bad idea when you think about it
Off to the ACT election, working today, have a good day to my fellow PB’ers out there
I hope William will allow most of this introduction to a brilliant piece, “The Economics of Reporting Polls, from Prof. Wang at his estimable meta-analysis website, http://election.princeton.edu/ today.
“The only thing happening in the national race is a slight, slow widening of Obama’s lead. Some of you want to know about individual polls, such as a recent Gallup national poll showing Obama ahead by only +2% (standard likely-voter model) or +6% (high-turnout model). I confess that I simply ignore individual polls, so it didn’t occur to me to care about this particular data point. Obama is still crushing McCain, period.
But there is a lesson to be learned here: It is not in the interest of individual pollsters or media organizations for you to have the most accurate possible picture of the horserace. Here is why.”
It’s well worth spending five minutes reading this cogent and rational reassurance from the good Professor. Especially so for those who seem to get spooked (or worried, anxious, concerned, etc.) every time one of these national polls (particularly an erratic tracking poll) supposedly shows a “tightening” of the race.
Diogenes @ 404 has succinctly nailed what really matters from here to polling day. Obama is not within a bull’s roar of losing any Kerry Electoral Votes, and of the 15 extra EV’s required to to reach 270, NM and IA lock are already locked in for 12.
Furthermore, it’s irrelevant if another million more rednecks in deep red states like Alabama, Alaska or Arizona switch from saying they’re voting for Obama or undecided (aka the lying and the clueless) to McCain. The battleground state polls are showing a “slight, slow, widening” even before the final debate impact runs through.
I should have added that Prof. Wang’s Electoral Vote calculation of 95% safe states is Obama 313 to McCain 166.
Well; it looks like the over the hill Australian that became a USA citizen to make a quick buck is pretty much the only one to come out for McCain. Long live media segregation, long live fox “news”.
Post, the Times condemned McCain for picking Palin
SurveyUSA has McCain leading 49-47 in Florida.
I think that’s the first poll this month that McCain’s been ahead in FL, CO, VA, NM, IA or NV.
Rasmussen
CO Obama 52-45
NV Obama 50-45
MO Obama 52-46 (!!)
Does anyone have any data on how Nader is tracking and whether he or other independants could be a factor in key States?
Context of poll numbers in William Bowe Post @ 423from SurveyUSA website:
“In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to August, Obama has never led in Florida. 14 separate research firms are polling in Florida. The last 10 surveys released by other pollsters all show Barack Obama ahead by 1 to 8 percentage points.”
#425, I remember reading a bunch of polls yesterday that put him at 2% and Barr at 1%. I highly doubt they’ll come into play.
GG
There have been a few national polls which have included Nader and Barr. RCP gives Nader 2.5% and Barr 1.3%. Assuming all the Naders would be Dems and Barrs Repugs it’s about 1.2% of an advantage to the Repugs. However, the two party polls of likely voters exclude those wacky fringe voters so any effect of Nader/ Barr is already included. Andy at EV says the “protest” vote is always more earlier in the campaign and drops off as reality sets in.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html
McCain’s policies for the financial crisis:
A government freeze on spending
A $300 billion tax cut for the rich
As Harold Meyerson writes in the Melbourne Age today “Having spent his career championing the policies that resulted in the melrdown, McCain now champions policies that will turn recession into depression”
-
He’s trying to paint Obama as a radical socialist by claiming his tax cuts are “redistributing wealth”.
Sounds like Reagan’s 1980 platform, which ultimately doubled the U.S. deficit, and by 1987 ultimately produced a bigger federal budget.
430
Perish the thought that those with much more than they really need should give a little of it to those who are really struggling. That would just be unAmerican. Communist even. No we can’t have any of that sharing mentality in the richest and most Christian nation on earth can we? Hypocrites!
Makes me realise how lucky I was to be born in a country like Australia.
God. The more I see of Palin the more obvious it is that she represents the worst things about America. And the more I see of McCain the more disgusted I am that he has been willing to degrade himself so much. Some of these Republicans are a damn sick bunch of puppies. How do the get like this?
I think most Americans wouldn’t object to that idea at the moment.
It seems that the U.S. has a lot of irritating nutcase female politicians. Here’s one who repeatedly calls Obama anti-American.:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJIQm_7YAUI
So that is a ‘let them eat cake’ and if they are lucky business might throw some crumbs.
A stopped engine (business) needs a starter motor (govt spending) and some demand/fuel (people). No point in turning the starter motor without fuel in the tank. Business is not going to spend money on anything if there is no demand. They need to put money in the pocket of business and people – tax cuts and govt spending.
It looks like the gap is narrower than it was at the start of this week. The latest Zogby tracking poll has O leading 48-44, down from 48-44 pre-debate; that’s with 2 days of data since the debate.
http://www.zogby.com
Sorry, should be 49-44 pre-debate.
I doubt that would be called a statistically significant movement. If McCain is to recover he must regain ground in the big four marginals where he is trailing: FL, MO, OH and VA, and he must do it this coming week.
Zogby’s been between 4-5 points for at least a week. Nothing really happening there.
McCain’s problem is that he has to win every battleground state this time – long odds of that! Assuming Obama loses no Kerry states, & Iowa/New Mexico are in his column, he’s got 264 electoral votes in the bank, and only needs another 6.
Obama can lose Florida and still win the election
Today’s Supreme Court decision in Ohio stopping Republicans from disenfranchising potentially hundreds of thousands of new voters is good news for Obama.
Here’s a great story from 538.
Sorry if this has already been posted, I’ve been out all day and I’ve not caught up on today’s posts
The nagger? Who is the nagger?
Perhaps they still think Hillary won the Democrat nomination.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_pavme0Uj0
So we’ve all been having fun at the expense of the Labor and Liberal Parties in Canberra, but the RCP average is now down to +6.6 Obama.
My magic formula (Average of the last two days, excluding outliers) is at +4.6 Obama.
But? +6.6 is landslide territory Oz
Regarding McCain and redistributing wealth to the rich, lets not also forget that his intentions to continue some stupid foreign wars are going to keep costing the USA $100B to $200B per year as well. There will be no money left for tax cuts or restarting the economy unless all social services and education are cut to the bone. A vote for McCain is a vote for “steady as she sinks”.
nice article on why and how HRC supporters now see the light and are coming home to the fold
Up to date tally (as of Published: October 18, 2008 11:50 AM ET updated Saturday
) for newspaper editorials and who is supporting which candidate. List includes comparison with the respective endorsement in 2004.
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230
Adam
Absolutely brilliant!
It definitely is Dario, but I don’t think the final election result will be +6. Just like I didn’t think it would be +8 or +10.
Anyone else sense a general “tightening” now? The next 3 or 4 days of polling will be interesting. Some of those +10 and +14 polls were ridiculously out of kilter, and are keeping the RCP average still a wide one. When those big margins drop off, and we start seeing more 3 and 4 margins, it will change things.
I think so. But I don’t know WHERE the narrowing is occurring. I guess we will find out this week if there is some lag in the state polls.
Check out this national tracking poll: the most accurate pollster from 2004 is now showing a significant Prez-Debate3 bounce for Obama.
Results of TIPP’s Election 2008 Tracking Poll
Beginning October 13th, TIPP began publishing the results of its 2008 Presidential race tracking poll.
The table below shows results for a two-way race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama among likely voters.
John McCan vs. Barack Obama
Release Date
McCain
Obama
Undecided
Spread
October 18
39.8%
47.2%
13.0%
+7.3 Obama
October 17
40.6%
45.9%
13.5%
+5.3 Obama
October 16
41.6%
45.2%
13.2%
+3.6 Obama
October 15
41.9%
45.2%
12.9%
+3.3 Obama
October 14
41.9%
44.8%
13.3%
+3.0 Obama
October 13
42.7%
44.8%
12.5%
+2.1 Obama
“In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within 3/10 of 1% point of President Bush’s actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of “Nation’s Most Accurate Pollster.” We”re planning to do it again this time around, so why not come along for the ride!”
Now, that’s my kind of ride!
Tim Blair thinks McCain is going to win.
Probably the one time in my life that I’ll ever agree with Tim Blair.
I feel sick.
How do you think McCain will win? Which states?
Of course there will be a “tightening” (or “narrowing” as we call it). I don’t think Obama will carry WV, NC or MO. I think he will carry IA and NM. So then it will come down to CO, FL, NV, OH and VA. He only needs one of these, and you’d have to think he will do that. But they will all be close.
Although the state polls are the ones that matter, I still thought it might cheer Obama supporters up to see the new TIPP national tracking poll, which boasts of its great result in ‘04 (whether by dumb luck or not!).
I fully expect the Robocall assaults, attacks of Anti-Americanism and Socialism etc. to impact on a national level, but mainly in deep red states where the Obama campaign is not spending advertising $ at a 3 to 1 rate over McCain like in Battleground states. Please see my earlier post with link to Prof. Sam Wang’s website at Princeton University.
There’s going to be a huge backlash at the Anti-American charges by Repub. congress woman, Michele Bachmann, against Obama and other Dem. colleagues on Chris Matthews CNN program. He and pundits on panel were appalled by her attempt to perpetrate such a blatant McCarthyist smear.
As usual, there seems to be a lot of circular blah blah amongst the Obama cheersquad.
This new ad is likely to get voters thinking about the suitablity of Obama for POTUS.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIZXQfEAHts
From the Associated Press today. The AP has been attempting to “outFox” other national news wire services with rightwing opinions seeping into their supposedly straight news items, so the outcome of their latest favorable-unfav. poll is most illuminating:
“Negative campaigning and a month of intense public focus on collapsing global economic and financial markets have not been kind to McCain. The new AP-Yahoo! News poll of likely voters, conducted this month by Knowledge Networks, shows more people viewing him favorably than unfavorably by just 5 percentage points, down from a 21-point difference in mid-September.
During the same period, Obama went the other way, increasing a 5-percentage-point net favorable rating to 15 points. Now, Obama is seen favorably by 57 percent and McCain by 52 percent — a close margin that masks the opposite direction the two rivals’ ratings are heading.”
All that advert made me think about was how terrible it would be for Sarah Palin to ever get near that room, let alone that chair.
McCain’s terrible choice of a V.P. candidate killed of his “Obama isn’t experienced” line of argument.
Oh, and McCain has never worked in executive government either, he has only ever been in the legislature.
Showson your mind is made up and you aren’t voting.
McCain is not actualy targetting this ad at people like you.
Contrary to the blogotariats never ending smear against McCain, he is a respected and well liked figure for his military service and years of service to the Senate.
The fact is that Obama has not “closed the deal” despite having events run his way throughout the Primaries and the campaign to date. there still appear to be doubts about his experience and plans for office.
If you want to campaign against a Palin Presidency, come back in 2012 or 2016.
* jjulian, I don’t think Bachman’s comments will have any impact, she’s a nobody, and she didn’t say anything that hasn’t been said already a zillion times.
* GG, nor do I think that ad will shift many votes. Everyone knows Obama is underqualified to be president, but the Repubs are so discredited that no-one cares.
Unless the RNC is sitting on some monstrous new scandal about Obama (not impossible, not not likely), he will win, though not by much. Debate 3 was really McCain’s last chance to show Obama as unready to rule, and he didn’t.
lol if McCain loses she will cop a lot of the fallout from the conservatives for the result, and will never be heard from again
/Edward Scissorhands style ON
Well duh, I’m not a U.S. citizen.
You mean Australians? LOL!
Where did I contradict this? I simply pointed out that the U.S. congress is not part of the executive. In other words, I stated the bleeding obvious.
How did “events run his way” during the primary? Obama won a hard fought campaign against Hillary Clinton – another excellent candidate.
If you want to keep copying McCain’s talking points, keep posting NOW, because he won’t be running for president in 2012 or 2016.
Obama had a rally for 100,000 people in Missouri yesterday… McCain just can’t compete with those numbers
Adam,
But, as we get closer to the election, that “je ne sais qua” ambivalence of some undecided voters may wash out when they are confronted with the reality of casting their vote.
No doubt McCain and his team are hammering this theme because it must still be a vote changing factor according to their research.
Oh dear retiring MI5 say war on terror over reaction
I wonder if it gets run in Australia, bet it doesn’t in the US. I wonder how Adam will take it.
I will take it as I take everything, dear boy – with equanimity.
JulieM,
Here’s my two cents worth for the POTUS outcome.
1 EV 291
2 Nope
3 Colorado
Two ideas behind that guess
1. McCain will gain some ground over the last two weeks, but not enough. He’s had such an aweful campain over the last two weeks that he can only improve. There is plenty of fear and uncertainty to play off.
2. I’ve wondered about the theory that Obama has great strength on the ground and this means that (given voting is optional) the poll are 1-2% behind the actual outcome. To me it sound like a theme to keep the troops motivated.
I think its very telling that both Obama and McCain are campaigning in states won by Bush in 2004. Clearly Mccain is on the defensive at the moment and it’s hard to see that changing in the two weeks remaining.
As for that Bachmann woman – what a disgraceful bit of work she is. Talk about the smiling assassin.. Thank God idiots like her are about to spend a long time in the political wilderness.
Saw a report over the weekend that exit polls conducted on early voters are heavily favouring Obama. If things tighten up a bit between now and polling day those extra votes will no doubt come in handy.
Obama people are motivated to vote early. The 4 Nov vote will be closer.
(Just as happened yesterday in the ACT – the prepoll overtstated the Green vote.)
472
But will you consider that there may have been errors in your views? The evidence is mounting.
The very slight tightening is occurring in LV but not RV polls. It’s probably a few Repug fans putting their dummies back in their mouths and saying they will vote when 2 weeks ago they were so disgusted with McCain’s lame campaign that they weren’t going to bother voting for him.
The Repugs senate campaign has pulled out of campaigning in Colorado. I’d be very surprised if CO and VA don’t stay blue which would be game over. The rest are just insurance policies. The lack of any high-profile events and Obama’s 3:1 money advantage should blunt much a narrowing. I’m guessing he’ll win the popular vote by about 4%.
Good to see the Obama team are feeling the pain of the voters.
http://obambi.wordpress.com/2008/10/18/michelle-obama-called-room-service-and-ordered-lobster-hors-doeuvres-two-whole-steamed-lobsters-iranian-caviar-and-champagne/
Yeah, I’m sure McCain owning 7 houses and 13 cars doesn’t compare to Michelle’s room service. FMD.
Obama also had a rally to 75,000 people in Kansas City yesterday… that’s nearly 200k in one day!
Re 473,
Got that and will add it to my list after lunch
…….
Here’s a great little tool to track the candidates.
Next week, Obama and McCain are campaigning in the same places.
Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, PA and Florida.
The VPs are out West in NM, CO and NV.
http://www.mapthecandidates.com/
Sorry, fredn, which of my many views are you referring to?
Dario,
But, such hubris is hardly symtopmatic of a team in touch with their community Keeping the lid on arrogance and indifference towards the people they are purporting to represent would be an important factor in the “don’t screw this up” handbook.
Could be ripe time for a rerun of the “guns and religion” incident.
Colin Powell will be on NBC’s Meet The Press at midnight tonight AEDT, where he is expected to announce his support for a candidate…
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3898804/
Sorry GG, but thats just BS
Finns
Hillary gets support from Obama camp for Health Secretary. “Very possible”
Dario,
So eating lobster and Iranian caviar is exactly what the voters facing the loss of their homes and jobs want to see.
BS! You’re soaking in it if you believe that!
Adam @ 466
“* jjulian, I don’t think Bachman’s comments will have any impact, she’s a nobody, and she didn’t say anything that hasn’t been said already a zillion times”
She’s running for re-election after serving one term in the House, and her comments have resulted in a half million $ in donations for her opponent within 24 hours. In 2006, the result was Bachmann 50%, Dem 42%, Indy 8%. It’s not likely to help McCain overcome Obama’s double-digit lead in that state, which his campaign had some valid hopes of gaining about a month ago.
The Republicans normally stick to milder language to assert that Democrats are not “real” pro-Americans, and it’s interesting to see Palin and other women taking on the role of shock troops this election to divide and conquer.
How many cars does McCain own? How many houses does McCain own? Good luck on this one lol
Dio @ 488,
That has been my own take on it since she wasn’t named VP. I think that will be a go and will be a super job for her
Just a reminder that we all need to be careful what we say on the internet.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078514/Husband-hacked-wife-death-meat-cleaver-changed-Facebook-status-single.html
Diogenes,
Plenty more horror stories like that.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/web/hell-hath-no-fury-like-the-ex-files/2008/10/18/1224351022106.html
anyone who is capable of hacking someone to death doesn’t need the internet to cause it
Nice article on the potential of the changes to the appointees to the Supreme Court with an Obama presidency …. For most Aussies who aren’t up with the history of the major decisions made by the US court over the years, there is a nice succint summary within the article as well
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081103/schwartz
McCain has been fairly successful so far at NOT looking like a very rich guy, although he is (unlike Turnbull, who can’t help himself). So the way is clear for the Repubs or their surrogates to run ads portraying Michelle Obama as a greedy parvenu already living it up at the taxpayers’ expense, and she hasn’t even got hold of the White House silver yet! The elites will scream, but the blue-collars might well react badly to such self-indulgence in the midst of economic downturn. I’d do it if I was in their position.
How is ordering room service at a hotel at tax-payers expense?
No, the suggestion is that that’s what she would do if she was FLOTUS
In this case it was presumably at campaign contributors’ expense.
As opposed to rich Cindy lol, good luck with that!
Yep, and I’m sure they wouldn’t mind as long as he wins
Adam – the youtube was very funny
Deary dear me.
Would Michelle Obama really need TWO lobsters by herself? I thought that was a bit suspicious. So I did a bit of checking. The docket from the Waldorf is dated 15/10 at 4pm.
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/18/a-little-snack-for-michelle-obama/
Michelle Obama was in Fort Wayne Indiana campaigning at 1pm on the 15/10.
I will say no more. But quite a bit comes to mind. Let’s wait and see how the facts come out on this one.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/rickscalf/gGgb9Y
Dio @ 503,
Sounds like someone is doing their homework, good on you
……. I couldn’t eat two lobsters all by myself 
…..
Don’t think that by the time that the polls open on Election Day that there will be any rock left unturned by the Republicans. Problem is that they aren’t turning anything up by trying. Perhaps the best we can hope for is that the Republicans themselves crawl back under those rocks and get out of our life
……
New thread.