A new swing state has come on to the radar courtesy of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which has conducted a poll of 606 voters in North Dakota showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 per cent to 43 per cent. That might not be much to go on – the state was last surveyed a month ago by Rasmussen, who had McCain leading 53 per cent to 40 per cent – but it’s enough to put it in the Obama column for purposes of my own polling aggregate methodology. As explained in previous posts, this involves using all the polling going back to October 1 or as much of it as is necessary to produce a sample of over 3000, with each poll weighted according to its sample and adjusted according to the shift in the Real Clear Politics national poll average since the day it was conducted. Note that McCain remains curiously competitive in Ohio.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.2 | 38.1 | 3196 | 17 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.2 | 39.2 | 3680 | 21 | |
| Iowa | 54.4 | 40.7 | 692 | 7 | |
| Washington | 54.3 | 41.8 | 1244 | 11 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.0 | 41.2 | 4923 | 10 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.0 | 42.5 | 2760 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 50.2 | 43.0 | 3195 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 49.4 | 42.4 | 2427 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 51.2 | 44.7 | 4281 | 9 | |
| Maine | 51.5 | 45.9 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 49.5 | 45.5 | 3599 | 5 | |
| West Virginia | 48.6 | 45.0 | 1122 | 5 | |
| Florida | 49.1 | 47.0 | 3530 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.0 | 45.9 | 3574 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.0 | 47.6 | 4018 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.1 | 44.0 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Virginia | 48.1 | 47.8 | 3811 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 47.2 | 49.1 | 3151 | 20 | |
| Indiana | 45.2 | 48.3 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 155 |
| RCP/Total | 49.5 | 43.2 | - | 352 | 186 |
505 Comments
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Cf: Ohio, William have a look at: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a98f6f52-fb6d-4800-9f4e-d55dcb6589f2
sample of 700 but Obama ahead of McCain 50%-45% in Ohio
Adam and other HC fans,
cut and paste of two reasons
Think with the second one I mentioned that Obama is channeling Kevin
…..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-c-rose/fourteen-changes-barack-o_b_134458.html
Oh Dear
“McCain Transition Chief Aided Saddam”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html
The 3rd debate seems to be McCain’s last chance. Watching him argue with the maddies amongst his own supporters it is easy to recall why he was an outsider in his own party for so many years. And still is. Probably would have disappeared off the heartlands radar without Palin. Sad reflection on Republican Party politics and its dominance by the religious and rural right. Anyway he deserves to be judged by the company he keeps.
Juliem @ 2,
As a Clintonista, I find that slightly depressing. It’s a shame that the Americans aren’t going to elect the best person to lead their country (IMHO) in this time of financial crisis.
However, I take comfort from the fact that they look set to elect the second-best person (Obama) and not the third-best (McCain). All of the other contenders in the primary campaigns (from both parties) were a bunch of hacks…
Some shifts in the RCP Electoral Map:
Colorado shifts from Toss-up to Leaning Obama
Michigan shifts from Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Wisconscin shifts from Leaning Obama to Solid Obama
Obama is now up 313-158, with 67 (OH, IN, MO, WV, NV and NC) still toss-ups.
Clinton has to say that at the moment, otherwise it raises the prospect that she wants Obama to lose so she can run in 2012. She’s making a concession to the Party that they are all on the same team for this election.
If he does somehow lose, it’d be a good bet she’ll be back and more determined than ever, though.
Are these polls in swing states ever going to stabilise? I’ve been expecting them to level off at some stage, but day after day they just seem to keep moving Obama’s way.
It’s very hard to see what he can do differently. If he is aggressive or dramatically changes his tone, he’ll seem slightly crazy and erratic. If he does more of the same, he’ll seem uninspired and without answers.
Obama just needs to play the last debate with a very straight bat. As a few people have said, this election looks more and more like it’s out of McCain’s hands (i.e. only Obama can stuff it up).
Obama now up 8.1 on the RCP National Average, due to a CBS/NYT poll showing him up by 14 points (!!!) over McCain.
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/oct08b-politics.pdf
This is a bigger margin than Bush I’s final winning margin over Dukakis in 1988. McCain’s got a long way to go to get close to Obama now…
Sigh, Paul Kelly.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24497984-12250,00.html
Apparently Rudd “needed” this economic crisis to “save his political credentials and reputation”. Now that’s a claim one can make about Gordon Brown, but unlike Gordon Brown, Rudd did not need “saving”.
The right-wing media seems hell-bent on giving off this image that people somehow hate Rudd even though all the polls say the exact opposite.
Oh crap wrong thread.
Ignore #12.
No way! I thought she was going to divorce Bill, marry Barack, and become first lady again! (Assuming OBama wins)
Obama has hit 80% chance of winning on Intrade. According to fivethirtyeight, the Democrats now have a 30% chance of winning 60 Senate seats (however, it looks like Lieberman is going to become a Republican after the election).
Let me guess, there has been a PARADIGM shift away from FOLLY?
They seem to be Kelly’s favourite words. I’m sure he could’ve used them in the same sentence in the current economic environment.
Yeah, but Hillary would be up by 32.4%
Now let me get my Kevin Bacon hat out… according to the rabid right, Iraq was involved in 911, or at least with terrorists, and Saddam led Iraq, and McCain’s transition chief was convicted of aiding Saddam, who is now working for McCain, so MCCAIN PALS AROUND WITH TERRORISTS!!!!!
I love this game
She current is! In the 9th, 10th, and 11th dimensions.
This is how I know the McCain campaign is a mess. There are three weeks to election day, and Palin is palining around with Rush Limbaugh, i.e. preaching to the converted on conservative talk radio:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/palin-ive-got-nothing-to_n_134632.html
Surely if they want to win this they need to be appealing to centrists, moderates, uncommitted and independent voters. I doubt you can appeal to them by going on conservative radio stations.
Unless they’re trying to do what I think they’re trying to do – work hard to make sure their base turns up to vote and hope that enough of Obama’s base don’t.
That’s the strategy they used (with considerable success) in 2004
Except in 2004 the Dems had Kerry, with the charisma of a limp lettuce leaf
With Obama’s charisma comes a handful of perceived negatives as well – his “race”, his “inexperience” etc.
Couldn’t be worse than Kerry, and isn’t judging from the polls
Interview with the lady who called Obama an “Arab”
“he’s still got Muslim in him”!?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-uptake/mccain-responds-to-arab-a_b_133820.html
Like she was ever going to vote anything other than Republican
“he’s still got Muslim in him”
Nothing a little ethnic enema or exorcism couldn’t fix!
(Then she’d vote for him for sure.)
She’ll do a write in vote for Sarah Palin.
Oh sorry, I should have added that she would have DEFINITELY voted for Hillary
They’ve finally admitted it: the US is (officially) in recession:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/us-slips-into-recession-20081015-5157.html
Its about time! I have been suggesting this fact grumpily for almost a year. Only dubious reporting of very large fictitious financial assets by Wall Street prevented the US from being reported as in a recession probably from the first quarter this year.
Acorn-gate…….Wall Street journal 14/10/08
Acorn is a US community agitiating for ‘left’ issues It also functions to get voters to register as Democrat voters
” Acorn is spending $16 million this year to register new Democrats and is already boasting it has put 1.3 million new voters on the rolls. The big question is how many of these registrations are real.
(Both Democrat & Republican State Governments administrations hav charged this organization)
Earlier this month, Nevada’s Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller requested a raid on Acorn’s offices, following complaints of false names and fictional addresses (including the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys). Nevada’s Clark County Registrar of Voters Larry Lomax said he saw rampant fraud in 2,000 to 3,000 applications Acorn submitted weekly.
Then there’s Lake County, Indiana, which has already found more than 2,100 bogus applications among the 5,000 Acorn dumped right before the deadline. “All the signatures looked exactly the same,” said Ruthann Hoagland, of the county election board.
Which brings us to Mr. Obama, who got his start as a Chicago “community organizer” at Acorn’s side. In 1992 he led voter registration efforts as the director of Project Vote, which included Acorn. This past November, he lauded Acorn’s leaders for being “smack dab in the middle” of that effort. Mr. Obama also served as a lawyer for Acorn in 1995, in a case against Illinois to increase access to the polls.
During his tenure on the board of Chicago’s Woods Fund, that body funneled more than $200,000 to Acorn. More recently, the Obama campaign paid $832,000 to an Acorn affiliate. The campaign initially told the Federal Election Commission this money was for “staging, sound, lighting.” It later admitted the cash was to get out the vote.
The Obama campaign is now distancing itself from Acorn, claiming Mr. Obama never organized with it and has nothing to do with illegal voter registration. Yet it’s disingenuous to channel cash into an operation with a history of fraud and then claim you’re shocked to discover reports of fraud. As with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers, Mr. Obama was happy to associate with Acorn when it suited his purposes. But now that he’s on the brink of the Presidency, he wants to disavow his ties.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394051071230749.html
.
This is what you get when you “privatize” chasing voters to registar to vote at a POTUS election Just like CDO’s and CDSs people won’t say its wrong/corrupt , but after a sooner or later US election is totally rorted , those peoplke will then say ‘it should not hav happened’
Accepting Wall Street Jounal info , wonder how many here 1/ condemn an organization like Acorn and 2/ condemn Obama’s association whatsoever with it
ShowsOn25 & Dario26,
Was that lady from Missouri?
…… Sounds like the sort of thing my sister would say “still has Muslim in him” …..
Sheeeesssshhh, that lady is a few kangaroos short, isn’t she?
Ronster
I note that the Obama campaign is referring to Fox News as the “24/7 ACORN News Channel” now.
And the Conservatives won in Canada. Obviously the crash has moved North American voters to the right and Obama is doing an amazing job in fighting that proven trend.
YEAH !!!!!!! My absentee voters ballot arrived in today’s mail
I’ll fill it out tonight and fast-post it back to Ann Arbor, Michigan in Thursday’s mail 
Ron: re Acorn
“The group released a video, set to the song You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feelin’, showing Senator McCain warmly greeting its activists at a February 2006 event in support of immigration reform.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/15/2391412.htm
Minnesota I think
Dario,
She must have been channeling my sister …..
only a stones throw over Iowa
It seems ACORN is all the Repubs have left. Good luck with that one. They must be sounding like Ron now.
Only here is the Huff Post cited as an independent news source.
I’m old enough to remember when the Huff was Ariana Stasinopoulos, right-wing nut-job. Now she’s become frothingly left, but she’s still a nut-job.
I haven’t seen anyone here cite it as independent, have they?
I have to agree with Adam on Huffington Post. However the story on chris Buckley resigning is correct. See the Wall Street Journal, not a left wing source
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122401695864033705.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Most of the Huff posts articles on politics are links to other articles
Zogby
Obama 48 (down 1)
McCain 44 (up 1)
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1587
That’s hardly the insurmountable lead he’s being portrayed has having.
One poll, Oz. One poll. The RCP average is +8.
Ron @31
Firstly, both candidates have associated with ACORN for the good reason that ACORN has never been involved with any voter fraud. It can only REGISTER voters. Any registrations which it considers remotely suspect, it alerts the appropriate state electoral officers to check out because it is not allowed to nullify a registration.
Most of these “suspects” are obvious ones like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck, so assuming the state electoral officer did approve such a registration form, then someone is going to look silly dressed up like a Disneyland street character in order to attempt to vote.
However, this latest desperate attack does have a benefit for Obama. The more that the Republican media (Fox, Limbaugh, Hannity etc.) waste their time on this irrelvant stuff, the less time they spend rubbishing Obama over matters that all polls show are really important to voters during this global economic crisis.
This is not 2000, and people will not be casting their vote for the Pres. candidate they would rather have a beer with or against the Pres. candidate who is being attacke through guilt by association. Moreover, if guilt by association was important, McCain would be in a world of hurt trying to defend his repeated appearance on the radio program and flowery praise of convicted Watergate burgler, G. Gordon Liddy.
As in past recession elections when people are extremely anxious about their jobs and savings (see 1980, 1992), the incumbent party’s candidate is going to lose because “It’s the economy, stupid!”
Btw, mailed my absentee ballot yesterday.
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