A new swing state has come on to the radar courtesy of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which has conducted a poll of 606 voters in North Dakota showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 per cent to 43 per cent. That might not be much to go on – the state was last surveyed a month ago by Rasmussen, who had McCain leading 53 per cent to 40 per cent – but it’s enough to put it in the Obama column for purposes of my own polling aggregate methodology. As explained in previous posts, this involves using all the polling going back to October 1 or as much of it as is necessary to produce a sample of over 3000, with each poll weighted according to its sample and adjusted according to the shift in the Real Clear Politics national poll average since the day it was conducted. Note that McCain remains curiously competitive in Ohio.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.2 | 38.1 | 3196 | 17 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.2 | 39.2 | 3680 | 21 | |
| Iowa | 54.4 | 40.7 | 692 | 7 | |
| Washington | 54.3 | 41.8 | 1244 | 11 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.0 | 41.2 | 4923 | 10 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.0 | 42.5 | 2760 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 50.2 | 43.0 | 3195 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 49.4 | 42.4 | 2427 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 51.2 | 44.7 | 4281 | 9 | |
| Maine | 51.5 | 45.9 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 49.5 | 45.5 | 3599 | 5 | |
| West Virginia | 48.6 | 45.0 | 1122 | 5 | |
| Florida | 49.1 | 47.0 | 3530 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.0 | 45.9 | 3574 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.0 | 47.6 | 4018 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.1 | 44.0 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Virginia | 48.1 | 47.8 | 3811 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 47.2 | 49.1 | 3151 | 20 | |
| Indiana | 45.2 | 48.3 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 155 |
| RCP/Total | 49.5 | 43.2 | - | 352 | 186 |
505 Comments
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ltep
I agree. Rudd and Obama are/ were both masters of making enough voters feel comfortable with them to make the leap into the unknown. They are both eminently “plausible”. They don’t go off message. They fight back but in a controlled way. And both look more “presidential” than their seasoned opponents. They’re pretty remarkable politicians really.
As an exercise in comprehension, Ron should try to work out why the sentences
“It is ACORN that has REPORTED almost all of the issues regarding voter registration cards”
and
“Officials in Ohio ARE INVESTIGATING voter fraud connected with Acorn”
are not mutually exclusive.
Here’s another article published by a respectable newspaper for Ron to look at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/oct/13/election-acorn-voter-fraud
as if you needed the support showson
but I fully agree with you as well
Adam: get over it, your sour grapes and anti-Obama rhetoric is getting very tiresome!
I thought someone of your obvious intellect would have more sense than to get into bed with the likes of Ron!
At the risk of repeating myself, the Guardian piece that I cited earlier makes an excellent point. Even if some fradulant registrations slip through, these will not result in fradulant votes being cast.
“So, unless Donald Duck shows up with his ID, he won’t be voting this November.”
either will Mao Zedong (unless you mean Mao Zedong, plumbing contractor, from Bismarck North Dakota.)
lol, as if that will stop Ron and Adam bleating
evan14 speaks as if to not be in love with Obama is a crime. It’s quite reasonable not to like a candidate and those who do not shouldn’t be told to get over it. All some people choose to do is point out Obama is not that amazing, which is thought to be ‘anti-Obama rhetoric’.
Nice editorial endorsement of Obama from the WaPo. Note the first sentence, which many others have agreed with.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603436.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
They are going a lot further than that
So much for Joe the plumber
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24509600-5012572,00.html
Why exactly does this man deserve to have his personal details strewn about in the media like this?
Dario,
So much for John McCain
Um, didn’t he front Obama in front of TV cameras and tell him his name, and what he did? Opened the door I think…
He also agreed to newspaper and TV interviews
It still, in my eyes, does not mean he needs to have his tax details made public.
They were public already
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aC4j3T5.s_eQ&refer=politics
Ohio has moved into the McCain column on my polling aggregates, following the latest Rasmussen poll showing the result at 49-all. The new poll has meant I have knocked polling from October 8 out of the aggregate, hence the shift to McCain. This is the first time a state has moved to McCain since I started doing this on October 1: in this time, West Virginia and North Dakota have moved to the Obama column.
But why does that need to be reported by the media? It is a matter between the state, the court and the individual and is not the business of anybody else.
Are you kidding? This is what the media does! He publicly claimed he was a plumber and that Obama’s tax plan was going to hurt him. The media checked out his story and lo and behold he isn’t a registered plumber, owes back taxes and doesn’t earn as much as he cliamed he did, so Obama’s tax plan won’t hurt him. It’s pretty standard stuff, sheesh.
And as for it being a matter between the him, the court and noone else, that’s total BS. Court proceedings are reported EVERY DAY in this country and in the US. If the court decides to seal the details then it’s a different story, but those records are clearly public domain.
Well I obviously have a different view of the role of the media than you do. I don’t see the role of the media to intrude into the private lives of individuals. Who cares if some random person makes a false claim to a presidential candidate at some media event? The private life of that individual is certainly of no importance in comparison to real electoral issues.
#370
Something very strange is going on for W.Virginia and N.Dakota (and N.Carolina too) to sidle over to the Obama column before OH does. Either a few of those polls are dodgy, or some of those red states are showing unprecedented volatility. I’m prepared to believe that swathes of redneck-ness in OH are holding this state back from voting Obama; but on that score, those other states (WV, ND, NC) should be even more hostile.
This election isn’t over yet, folks. If McCain can hold Ohio, and claw back Colorado and Florida, we have a real contest on our hands. I don’t really believe N.Carolina, W.Virginia or N.Dakota are Obama prospects. Having said that, I’d be quite happy if Obama could pick up one of these three.
I’d go the dodgy polls hypothesis, Kakuru. Note the small samples I’m going on in WV and ND.
“Who cares if some random person makes a false claim to a presidential candidate at some media event? The private life of that individual is certainly of no importance in comparison to real electoral issues.”
I’m with Dario on this one. Itep, “Joe the plumber” only became an electoral issue because McCain chose this guy as his poster boy for criticising Obama’s tax plan. If it’s anyone’s fault for sensationalising this guy’s private life, the fault lies with McCain. McCain’s campaign should have done their homework before propelling “Joe the plumber” to the national stage.
McCain still loses in that situation, assuming Obama picks up Iowa, New Mexico and Virgnina (where he’s up by 8.1 on the RCP average). Obama will still tie McCain if he doesn’t win Virginia but instead wins Nevada.
As for the big swings in ND and WV vs small swing in OH – this is almost certainly due to the difference in ad spend for the McCain campaign in those states. McCain has been plastering OH with ads (which makes sense), but has barely done anything in ND and WV. Hence, the bigger movement to Obama there.
As for NC, it’s completely different to ND and WV. Whilst it does have a rural white component in the western part of the state, it also has a lot more African American voters, urban centres (Greensboro, Raleigh, Charlotte, Durham) and transplanted Yankees than either ND or WV. These demographics play much better for Obama – hence his competitiveness in the state.
Me too, William. WV and ND are not turning blue any time soon.
Riiiight. So any old Obama supporter could go up to McCain and say he killed their kid, and the media should just take it at face value and not investigate at all? Give me a break. You’re worse than Ron.
kakuru, McCain can’t make a clean choice on character for anything in this campaign, can he?
….. palin, this guy, well at least we can say mccain is reliable in that respect … reminds me of the line Lindsay Tanner used in QT this session, don’t remember what day it was, he said the opposition was only consistent in their hypocrisy 
#378
Yes, in those respects N.Carolina has a similar demographic profile/trends to Virginia. Except Virginia is further ahead. Nevertheless, N.Carolina is similar to W.Virginia and N.Dakota in still being predominantly white & conservative – and in being a hard task for Obama to wrest away from McCain.
WV was one of the bluest states until Bush. It voted for Clinton in ‘92 and ‘96, Dukakis in ‘88 and Carter in ‘76 and ‘80.
Dario… you’re equating someone fudging details of their life to attack the tax policies of Obama to someone making a completely false assertion, involving a serious crime, to another candidate? Try a different analogy.
Why should a nobody fudging details of their life for making a serious crime allegation warrant further investigation by the media, but a nobody fudging details of their life making a tax policy attack not? Seems like double standards to me. If you’re going to make a claim against someone in the public domain using your own details as the basis for it then you better expect some scrutiny if it turns out to be a steaming pile. Welcome to the real world.
I think NC is more like VA rather than WV (for the demographic reasons outlined @ 378)
Obama is further ahead in VA because:
1. Northern Virginia is now effectively a suburb of Washington, DC – which means its much more of a swing area.
2. Virginia has a smaller rural white area – its contained in the Shenadoah Valley
3. Virginia has a large metropolitan area – Richmond, as well as smaller metro areas in Virginia Beach and Arlington.
Anyone out there who follows astrology?
….. following is referring to McCain …..
BOTLO for something happening around October 22nd
….
“WV was one of the bluest states until Bush. It voted for Clinton in ‘92 and ‘96, Dukakis in ‘88 and Carter in ‘76 and ‘80.”
True. But WV is very socially conservative, and the national Democratic Party is seen as increasingly progressive (’liberal’) – at least in the eyes of many West Virginians. Although the Dems do well at a state level, West Virginians tend to view the national party very differently. If Obama can woo WV back to the Dem column, it’d be a real coup. But I don’t see that happening. Over the past generation the Dems (at a national level) have lost traction in the South, because the GOP are better (usually, not invariably) at appealling to their ingrained social conservative values. Socially conservative Dems do get up, especially at state level; but at a national level they’re increasingly identified with their East Coast/West Coast stablemates.
Following on from that, should a Senate seat from WV become vacant some time soon (which may happen – Bobby Bird isn’t getting any younger) – I reckon the Dems will find it very hard to hold on to WV in the Senate. Genuine Blue Dogs are a dying breed.
“I think NC is more like VA rather than WV (for the demographic reasons outlined @ 378)”
I agree, completely. But neither NC or WV will fall to Obama, whereas VA looks like a slam-dunk at this stage.
The 23/6 website has a “Comment of the Day” feature. I’m linking the URL to the current one for October 16th (US time). Check it now before it cycles off LOL as it is short, sweet and to the point. I can’t cut and paste the content though with the [] feature as it would be caught up in William’s sin bin because of bad
….
words
http://www.236.com/news/2008/10/16/236_comment_of_the_day_9594.php
Hahahaha that is hilarious. So succinct.
Also from 23/6, also NSFW: John McCain’s Voicemail to Barack Obama. “Geez, I’m black just like that Kanye Diggity Dogg!”
Re 392,
OMG ….. that is a good one, I started listening but had to quit as the kids were around, need to load it up again after they go to bed since it isn’t G rated
Juliem @ 348
You are spot on that in USA sexism trumps racism.
Every year I visit rels in Repub. congressional districts (CA and C0), and that’s where one encounters a plethora of Stepford Wives and males with 1950’s superiority attitudes. The ongoing battle for equal-pay for women for the same work is part and parcel of this.
I’m still enjoying the post-debate euphoria, and I assume Obama will get another small bounce in polls by the weekend, followed by a return to the current level by November. Not that I pay a scintilla of attention to the day-by-day noise of nation-wide polls: full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
McCain’s attacks, whining and erratic demeanor were discomforting, if not offputting. More importantly, any undecided Hillary voters he needs will not be pleased by his SCOTUS Judge appointment “qualifications” and his women’s health gaffe.
from the nyt
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/us/politics/17smith.html?ref=us
“His rival, Senator Barack Obama, then made a confession about his past associations. “John McCain is onto something,” he said. “There was a point in my life when I started palling around with a pretty ugly crowd, I’ve got to be honest. These guys were serious deadbeats; they were lowlifes; they were unrepentant no-good punks. That’s right: I’ve been a member of the United States Senate.””
I don’t know very much about this ACORN business, but these accusations sound to me like something straight out of the republican dirty bag of tricks.
Any mob that would besmerch the war record of John Kerry to win an election the way they did in 2004 would do or say anything. It will be good to see them cop a good hiding for their trouble in a couple of weeks time.
Juliem 387
I don’t know about western astrology but consider Chinese astrology:
2000 – year of the corrupt judge
2004 – year of the idiot
2008 – year of the repairman
So I think its looking good for Obama, after the last two election years obviously favoured Bush.
This video is well worth seeing. Both McCain and Obama are very funny.
McCain
Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/16/the-last-laugh-mccain-oba_n_135454.html
What about the personal attack it was made in response to at 311?
Deleted that also, sorry I didn’t do so at the time. That said, utterly baseless accusations of racism are a higher order of offence.
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