A new swing state has come on to the radar courtesy of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which has conducted a poll of 606 voters in North Dakota showing Barack Obama leading John McCain 45 per cent to 43 per cent. That might not be much to go on – the state was last surveyed a month ago by Rasmussen, who had McCain leading 53 per cent to 40 per cent – but it’s enough to put it in the Obama column for purposes of my own polling aggregate methodology. As explained in previous posts, this involves using all the polling going back to October 1 or as much of it as is necessary to produce a sample of over 3000, with each poll weighted according to its sample and adjusted according to the shift in the Real Clear Politics national poll average since the day it was conducted. Note that McCain remains curiously competitive in Ohio.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.2 | 38.1 | 3196 | 17 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.2 | 39.2 | 3680 | 21 | |
| Iowa | 54.4 | 40.7 | 692 | 7 | |
| Washington | 54.3 | 41.8 | 1244 | 11 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.0 | 41.2 | 4923 | 10 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.0 | 42.5 | 2760 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 50.2 | 43.0 | 3195 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 49.4 | 42.4 | 2427 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 51.2 | 44.7 | 4281 | 9 | |
| Maine | 51.5 | 45.9 | 500 | 4 | |
| Nevada | 49.5 | 45.5 | 3599 | 5 | |
| West Virginia | 48.6 | 45.0 | 1122 | 5 | |
| Florida | 49.1 | 47.0 | 3530 | 27 | |
| North Carolina | 48.0 | 45.9 | 3574 | 15 | |
| Missouri | 49.0 | 47.6 | 4018 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.1 | 44.0 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Virginia | 48.1 | 47.8 | 3811 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 47.2 | 49.1 | 3151 | 20 | |
| Indiana | 45.2 | 48.3 | 1977 | 11 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 155 |
| RCP/Total | 49.5 | 43.2 | - | 352 | 186 |
505 Comments
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I must respectfully disagree with those brave souls who are saying “it’s not over”.
The election has been struggling to make it into the first five minutes of MSM TV news bulletins. It’s all about the economy and the markets.
It’s over, and McCain may as well start scaling back any personal stuff right now, in the hope that President Obama will see him as Arnie Vinick and give him a more interesting job than being a Senator.
“The election has been struggling to make it into the first five minutes of MSM TV news bulletins” – in the US, that is.
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby national tracking poll for Friday:
Obama 49 (steady)
McCain 44 (steady)
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49G0V320081017
Here’s a good summary of the states in play.
Of the Kerry states, McCain is still looking at PA or NH. (I just don’t understand his obsession with PA. He’s 13% behind there. It’s gone buddy. Even the RNC isn’t doing ads in NH so they know it’s gone)
Both sides have now given Iowa and NM to Obama, despite Macca-Crazy talk about winning Iowa recently.
Team Obama reckon CO and VA are their tickets to the White House.
Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri are realistic and help stretch the Repugs.
Nevada, West Virginia and Montana are more for annoyance value. I’m surprised Obi isn’t going after NV harder.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603617.html?hpid=topnews
Dyno – Sorry if I’m not so eager to completely write-off an election because the MSM are shuffling their stories around…
I believe Virginia is the key state this time. If it goes to Obama, this thing is over, because Iowa and New Mexico are already in the bag, and McCain has got no chance of picking up any Kerry states, certainly not Pennsylvania.
Ohio is still too close for my liking, I think Obama will need to send Hillary down there.
I am slightly confused as to why no deep South states are in play. More than 30% of the population of Louisiana, Georgia and Mississippi are black. These are some of the most disenfrachised people in America and – particualrly in Louisiana – there is no love lost for the Republican party.
We hear about the “huge” number of black voters being key in North Carolina, but black people only account for 20% of that state. So why not in the three above? Louisiana voted for Clinton twice, and Georgia did once, so why not Obama?
Just been announced that Colin Powell is going to be on NBC’s Meet The Press on Sunday. Could it be candidate endorsment time?
“We are 19 days away from changing this country. But for those who are getting a little cocky, I have two words for you: New Hampshire,” he told a rain-soaked rally of 4,100 people in the toss-up state”
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jr3qSUI1vTRzZapZybgAnJ_cLzEQ
Diog, how do you sleep at night? The China Syndrome is a notion that refers to a possible extreme result of a financial meltdown in which toxic products breach the barriers below them and flow downwards through the floor of the Wall St building. The origin of the phrase is the facetious concept that toxic products from an American financial institutions may melt through the crust of the earth and reach China. This concept and reference however is a phrase limited to the popular understanding of US financial power and has no technical or scientific bearing whatsoever. (with an apology to Wiki)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JJ18Cb01.html
Gee though Chinese certainly know how to run capitalism.
Grant @ 407,
I would be wondering the same thing and I lived in the US for 43 years. Granted, it wasn’t in the deep south, but still, your wonderings are quite valid …. Particularly Georgia, as they have a demonstrated demographic that will vote for the Dems, the Carter voters. I would like one Carter voter [alas I don't know any in person
] to please explain to me why McCain is a better option for them than Obama is.
LA Times now onboard along with Washington Post
…..
In the interest of fairness, I post this for the right wing PB’ers out there ….. someone was asking about a potential narrowing of the polls out tehre earlier this week, herein might be some of the answer to that …
Ohio Republicans can get stuffed according to the Supreme Court
Oh dear, someone was wasting their money
Hmmmmm … not a bad idea when you think about it
Off to the ACT election, working today, have a good day to my fellow PB’ers out there
I hope William will allow most of this introduction to a brilliant piece, “The Economics of Reporting Polls, from Prof. Wang at his estimable meta-analysis website, http://election.princeton.edu/ today.
“The only thing happening in the national race is a slight, slow widening of Obama’s lead. Some of you want to know about individual polls, such as a recent Gallup national poll showing Obama ahead by only +2% (standard likely-voter model) or +6% (high-turnout model). I confess that I simply ignore individual polls, so it didn’t occur to me to care about this particular data point. Obama is still crushing McCain, period.
But there is a lesson to be learned here: It is not in the interest of individual pollsters or media organizations for you to have the most accurate possible picture of the horserace. Here is why.”
It’s well worth spending five minutes reading this cogent and rational reassurance from the good Professor. Especially so for those who seem to get spooked (or worried, anxious, concerned, etc.) every time one of these national polls (particularly an erratic tracking poll) supposedly shows a “tightening” of the race.
Diogenes @ 404 has succinctly nailed what really matters from here to polling day. Obama is not within a bull’s roar of losing any Kerry Electoral Votes, and of the 15 extra EV’s required to to reach 270, NM and IA lock are already locked in for 12.
Furthermore, it’s irrelevant if another million more rednecks in deep red states like Alabama, Alaska or Arizona switch from saying they’re voting for Obama or undecided (aka the lying and the clueless) to McCain. The battleground state polls are showing a “slight, slow, widening” even before the final debate impact runs through.
I should have added that Prof. Wang’s Electoral Vote calculation of 95% safe states is Obama 313 to McCain 166.
Well; it looks like the over the hill Australian that became a USA citizen to make a quick buck is pretty much the only one to come out for McCain. Long live media segregation, long live fox “news”.
Post, the Times condemned McCain for picking Palin
SurveyUSA has McCain leading 49-47 in Florida.
I think that’s the first poll this month that McCain’s been ahead in FL, CO, VA, NM, IA or NV.
Rasmussen
CO Obama 52-45
NV Obama 50-45
MO Obama 52-46 (!!)
Does anyone have any data on how Nader is tracking and whether he or other independants could be a factor in key States?
Context of poll numbers in William Bowe Post @ 423from SurveyUSA website:
“In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to August, Obama has never led in Florida. 14 separate research firms are polling in Florida. The last 10 surveys released by other pollsters all show Barack Obama ahead by 1 to 8 percentage points.”
#425, I remember reading a bunch of polls yesterday that put him at 2% and Barr at 1%. I highly doubt they’ll come into play.
GG
There have been a few national polls which have included Nader and Barr. RCP gives Nader 2.5% and Barr 1.3%. Assuming all the Naders would be Dems and Barrs Repugs it’s about 1.2% of an advantage to the Repugs. However, the two party polls of likely voters exclude those wacky fringe voters so any effect of Nader/ Barr is already included. Andy at EV says the “protest” vote is always more earlier in the campaign and drops off as reality sets in.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html
McCain’s policies for the financial crisis:
A government freeze on spending
A $300 billion tax cut for the rich
As Harold Meyerson writes in the Melbourne Age today “Having spent his career championing the policies that resulted in the melrdown, McCain now champions policies that will turn recession into depression”
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He’s trying to paint Obama as a radical socialist by claiming his tax cuts are “redistributing wealth”.
Sounds like Reagan’s 1980 platform, which ultimately doubled the U.S. deficit, and by 1987 ultimately produced a bigger federal budget.
430
Perish the thought that those with much more than they really need should give a little of it to those who are really struggling. That would just be unAmerican. Communist even. No we can’t have any of that sharing mentality in the richest and most Christian nation on earth can we? Hypocrites!
Makes me realise how lucky I was to be born in a country like Australia.
God. The more I see of Palin the more obvious it is that she represents the worst things about America. And the more I see of McCain the more disgusted I am that he has been willing to degrade himself so much. Some of these Republicans are a damn sick bunch of puppies. How do the get like this?
I think most Americans wouldn’t object to that idea at the moment.
It seems that the U.S. has a lot of irritating nutcase female politicians. Here’s one who repeatedly calls Obama anti-American.:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJIQm_7YAUI
So that is a ‘let them eat cake’ and if they are lucky business might throw some crumbs.
A stopped engine (business) needs a starter motor (govt spending) and some demand/fuel (people). No point in turning the starter motor without fuel in the tank. Business is not going to spend money on anything if there is no demand. They need to put money in the pocket of business and people – tax cuts and govt spending.
It looks like the gap is narrower than it was at the start of this week. The latest Zogby tracking poll has O leading 48-44, down from 48-44 pre-debate; that’s with 2 days of data since the debate.
http://www.zogby.com
Sorry, should be 49-44 pre-debate.
I doubt that would be called a statistically significant movement. If McCain is to recover he must regain ground in the big four marginals where he is trailing: FL, MO, OH and VA, and he must do it this coming week.
Zogby’s been between 4-5 points for at least a week. Nothing really happening there.
McCain’s problem is that he has to win every battleground state this time – long odds of that! Assuming Obama loses no Kerry states, & Iowa/New Mexico are in his column, he’s got 264 electoral votes in the bank, and only needs another 6.
Obama can lose Florida and still win the election
Today’s Supreme Court decision in Ohio stopping Republicans from disenfranchising potentially hundreds of thousands of new voters is good news for Obama.
Here’s a great story from 538.
Sorry if this has already been posted, I’ve been out all day and I’ve not caught up on today’s posts
The nagger? Who is the nagger?
Perhaps they still think Hillary won the Democrat nomination.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_pavme0Uj0
So we’ve all been having fun at the expense of the Labor and Liberal Parties in Canberra, but the RCP average is now down to +6.6 Obama.
My magic formula (Average of the last two days, excluding outliers) is at +4.6 Obama.
But? +6.6 is landslide territory Oz
Regarding McCain and redistributing wealth to the rich, lets not also forget that his intentions to continue some stupid foreign wars are going to keep costing the USA $100B to $200B per year as well. There will be no money left for tax cuts or restarting the economy unless all social services and education are cut to the bone. A vote for McCain is a vote for “steady as she sinks”.
nice article on why and how HRC supporters now see the light and are coming home to the fold
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