11.15pm. A very strong performance by the Greens at the Lyneham booth in Molonglo (29.2 per cent) has been cancelled out by other late booths: the Greens (1.47) now trail the Liberals (2.49) in the hunt for the last quota.
11.07pm. I earlier said a third Labor seat in Ginninderra would go to Dave Peebles, but he now slightly trails Adina Cirson.
10.58pm. It’s also being said that Frank Pangallo can’t be written off in Molonglo, although it’s conceded that it’s unlikely.
10.56pm. Talk on the ABC is that independent Mark Parton is not out of the hunt in Ginninderra, depending on how independent preferences go. If successful the result there would be two Labor and one each for Liberal, Greens and independent. He has 6.6 per cent of the primary vote.
10.43pm. I’m back. Greens sounding slightly more hopeful of that second seat in Molonglo and Labor likewise of a third seat in Ginninderra, but both remain up in the air and if anything leaning slightly to the Liberals.
9.13pm. I’ll be taking a break shortly, so a recap. Brindabella: No doubt the result here is 2-2-1, little doubt Steve Doszpot has taken a Liberal seat from Steve Pratt, possible Joy Burch will take a Labor seat from Mick Gentleman. Ginninderra: Liberals seem to be recovering a little after the 3-1-1 scare, and looking better for 2-2-1, but a few big booths still to come. If it’s the former, Vicki Dunne will lose her seat to Labor’s Dave Peebles. Newcomer Alistair Coe has done very well to be a clear Liberal winner. Molonglo: Labor’s three incumbents looking good; two seat for the Liberals (Zed Seselja overwhelmingly dominating the vote, so unclear if the second will be second-placed Jeremy Hanson or third-placed Guilia Jones), one seat for the Greens (Shane Rattenbury), and the final seat a contest between a third Liberal and a second Greens (unclear if Caroline Le Couteur or Elena Kirschbaum). So Labor has lost its majority but might yet win eight seats out of 17, but more likely seven; Liberal between five and seven; Greens three or four.
9.10pm. What I might have missed in Molonglo is the 3 per cent vote for Richard Mulcahy which will presumably flow heavily to the Liberals (thanks to Oz in comments).
9.06pm. With the vote up from 42.3 to 57.6, the Liberals have recovered slightly in Ginninderra, up from 27.1 to 27.8 per cent. They would still seem more likely than not to win a second seat, but are by no means home and hosed. As far as I can see, the prospect of a second Greens seat in Molonglo looks higher than most are saying: they are on 1.45 quotas against 2.51 for the Liberals, and could surely close that 0.06 gap on preferences. There is a lot I could be missing though.
8.52pm. Situation in Molonglo is that Labor are sure for three, the Liberals for two and the Greens for one, with the final seat down to a third Liberal and a second Green.
8.50pm. Brindabella count up to 63.2 per cent, but the basic situation changed: Labor two (John Hargreaves returned, but Mick Gentleman not home against party newcomer Joy Burch), Liberal two (Brendan Smyth plus Steve Doszpot looking likely to defeat Steve Pratt), Greens one (Amanda Bresnan).
8.46pm. Talk on ABC of the Liberal vote continuing to fade in Ginninderra, putting their second seat at risk. That could mean a final outcome of Labor 8, Liberal 6, Greens 3. The Liberal casualty in Ginninderra would be incumbent Vicki Dunne, who is well behind newcomer Alistair Coe.
8.22pm. Vote count really ticking over now: up to 45.9 per cent in Brindabella, and Joy Burch has hit the lead over Mick Gentleman for the second Labor seat. Steve Pratt now trails Steve Doszpot 8.3 per cent to 6.3 per cent, which is just about lethal for Pratt.
8.20pm. I intimated earlier that Brendan Smyth’s preferences might help Pratt narrow the gap over Doszpot, but the very helpful Ben Raue points out that Smyth is himself some way short of a quota so won’t have preferences to give.
8.10pm. Ginninderra vote up from 16.8 to 20.9 and the Liberals have gone down further, from 1.71 quotas to 1.68.
8.08pm. The brains trust, and apparently the man himself, doesn’t think Pangallo is a chance.
8.05pm. Brindabella count up from 19.5 per cent to 24.3 per cent, and the gap between Doszpot and Pratt continues to widen.
8.02pm. With an extra 1.8 per cent counted (20.1 per cent), the Greens vote up slightly in Molonglo, where there support is unevenly spread. It might be that Frank Pangallo is in the hunt here: his group is on 0.38 quotas against 1.39 for the Greens.
7.58pm. An extra 2.5 per cent counted in Brindabella bears out what Adam said earlier: Labor up from 34.2 per cent to 34.9 per cent, Liberal down from 36.8 per cent to 36.1 per cent, Greens down from 13.6 per cent. The 2-2-1 outcome here is not in doubt, but it’s interesting to note that Steve Pratt has fallen further behind newcomer Liberal Steve Doszpot: from 7.7-7.1 to 7.7-6.8. However, as a sitting member and ally of Brendan Smyth, Pratt can presumably expect to do better on the latter’s preferences.
7.55pm. Ben Raue on the ground notes: “Of course it takes ages. First of all you’ve gotta unfold them, then sort them into columns, then sort them into individuals within columns when all different ballots have the candidates in a different order, then tally them. It takes a lot longer than a federal primary count.”
7.54pm. Count remains slow, but Liberal spokesman on ABC Radio doesn’t sound concerned about a second seat in Ginninderra despite only being on 1.7 quotas at present.
7.25pm. Count now proceeding slowly after initial excitement. Adam Carr notes in comments that the polls are doing better for Labor than the pre-polls. Greens hopes for a second seat in Molonglo seem to be fading.
7.11pm. ABC Radio commentators pretty much writing off Richard Mulcahy.
7.05pm. Big picture: 11 per cent swing against Labor, slight drop in the Liberals, big pick-up for the Greens – definitely good for three seats, maybe yet four. ABC computer still saying seven each for Labor and Liberal, three for the Greens. Kate Lundy still thinks Labor might win three seats in Ginninderra, but they’ll have to do better than their current 2.3 quotas.
6.52pm. More on Molonglo: Sometime NSW Greens candidate Ben Raue vaguely hopeful in comments of a second Greens seat, but early days with booth votes only just starting to come in. Katy Gallagher easily leading the Labor field; Andrew Barr not doing well for a presumed future leader, but still very likely to win a seat. Simon Corbell the poorest performing of the three Labor incumbents. Zed Seselja home and hosed, but Jacqui Burke in trouble, trailing two Liberal newcomers in Jeremy Hanson and Guilia Jones.
6.40pm. Molonglo: Labor looking good for three seats, the Liberals not certain of more than two, Shane Rattenbury home and hosed for the Greens.
6.38pm. Ginninderra: The Liberals are short of two quotas at the moment, but probably not by enough to stop them winning two seats. Vicki Dunne is trailing newcomer Alistair Coe; both should win seats unless they are indeed in danger of only winning one. Jon Stanhope and Mary Porter both set to be returned. Meredith Hunter to win a seat for the Greens.
6.35pm. Brindabella: on counting of pre-polls, Labor and Liberal are both just above two quotas and the Greens just below one, leaving no doubt as to the result if the trend continues. Intriguingly, Steve Doszpot narrowly leads Steve Pratt in the race for the second Liberal seat; Brendan Smyth is clearly not in trouble. John Hargreaves certain to win the first Labor seat, but Joy Burch perhaps an outside change to beat Mick Gentleman, although she is behind. Strong performances by the micro-parties, but not strong enough.
6.32pm. ABC computer predicting seven seats each to Labor and Liberal and three to the Greens.
6.26pm. That quick counting has indeed been down to electronic voting – all those results are pre-polls. I expect things will quieten down a little for a while now.
6.21pm. Presumably to rub salt into the wounds of the technical problems I have been having, the ACT Electoral Commission are conducting the count at breakneck speed – perhaps this has something to do with electronic voting. 12.9 per cent counted and those opinion polls are looking good – Labor down 10.7 per cent, Liberals down 2.9 per cent, Greens up 7.2 per cent.
6.20pm. Apologies for the delay in getting started. Oz in comments writes: “5% counted. 9.8% swing to The Greens in Brindabella. 12.1% counted, 7.4% swing to The Greens in Ginninderra. 11% counted in Molonglo, 7% swing to The Greens. Labor and Lib losing out, Independants also getting swings.”
293 Comments
This is completely unrelated to anything, but I just got ridiculous de ja vu.
Interesting way to begin the night.
The swings don’t mean much. What counts is quotas.
ABC and their stupid vox pops! Can we have some figures?
Ginninderra: ALP 2.3, Grn 0.9, Lib 1.7. Probably 2/2/1
ABC predicts 7-7-3
Brindabella – Libs 2.2, Labor 2.1, Greens 0.8
Ginninderra – Libs 1.7, Labor 2.3, Greens 0.9
Molonglo – Libs 2.6, Labor 2.8, Greens 1.4
Looks like this is already just about over. Labor suffers big swing against, loses majority govt, but none goes to the Libs. Grns will hold BoP in next legislature, as expected.
yup
next
So much for Patterson polls
Independents/Others getting almost 16%, their preferences are going to super-important.
Bear in mind the early vote is mostly prepolls. If there was a late swing it may not have showed up yet.
It is still early, but I’m doing my own liveblog from Campbell Public School polling booth at http://tallyroom.wordpress.com/2008/10/18/liveblogging-in-the-bush-capital/
It’s looking very likely it will be 6 ALP, 6 Liberal, 3 Greens, 1 up for grabs.
The Greens would be hard pressed to support a Liberal Government, no matter what ‘deals’ they made, so it looks like the ALP should be returned quite comfortably.
Election coverage just started on ABC HD.
Hoho! The Libs appear to have managed a swing AGAINST themselves in the ACT! Not as big as the ALPs, granted, but seriously, that’s unbelievable.
I tell ya, there’s been two stories in State/Territory politics since Rudd: the end nigh for long tenured ALP regimes, and the LNPs almost superhuman capacity to maintain failure in the face of opportunity.
Itep that only adds up to 16
More stupid vox pops
Um, ltep, that adds up to 16. It looks very likely it will be 7-7-3, but we will have to crunch the numbers more, looking at individual candidates, once more votes have come in.
Now that the electronic votes have been counted it should be a while before the paper votes start flowing. It’s gonna take a while to tally primaries on these big ballots. They haven’t even finished sorting in my booth.
Also bear in mind that this is the people who chose to vote electronically at the prepolls. In past years this has been about half of pre-poll voters (may be rising as people get more used to computer use). The sort of people who prepoll on computer may not be the same as the sort who prepoll using paper – you’d guess they were younger for a start.
In 2001 the equivalent votes showed a truly massive swing to the Democrats IIRC. They did get a big swing overall, but much less than the electronic votes suggested. Things could change a lot before the end of the night.
Gallagher and Smyth both look like they’re going to kill themselves. Antony “GREEN” looks very happy.
Earlier this afternoon Antony said that pre-polls seem to favour The Greens by a percetange point or two.
Apparently 30,000 people voted pre-poll, that’s massive!
At the last Fed election, 38,000 voted pre-poll in the ACT, constituting about 1/6 of the total turnout.
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByPartyByVoteType-13745-ACT.htm
More than that Ben, it looks like 30,000 voted prepoll electronically. Add in the numbers who prepolled on paper and its probably over 40,000. Canberra always has more prepolls than anywhere else I know (maybe because people get out of town for the weekend) but this is still something extraordinary.
Katie Gallagher, who I admire as a minister, looks like death! Is it the campaign or the results?
Bit of both probably, Michael Cusack.
Rattenbury looks fairly ok.
35,000 electronic votes counted, and it looks like all of them are prepolls, from what I can see, no electronic booth votes in. So the prepoll total may have been over 50,000. If this keeps up the whole idea of an election day will be a misnomer. Saturday will be the day they count the votes cast in the last two weeks.
ABC computer has Gallagher on 1.23 quotas. Am I missing something?
ACT Election website has that as well.
Yeah but Rattenbury is a triathlete – he probably thought the campaign was physically a recharge period, even if it was a stress emotionally.
If that’s the case there will have to be a serious crackdown on pre-polling. It’s supposed to be for people who are *unable* to vote on Saturday. It can’t became a general early vote for everyone. What if some hideous scandal about one of the leaders had emerged on Friday?
First hard copy votes in – Community Alliance pulls 58% in Tharwa! Either the candidate lives there, or we’re in for the boilover of all time.
Adam with due respect that is the risk the voter takes in pre-polling, its no different than postal voting, while I prefer to vote on polling day but some find it easy to pop into an AEC office and pre-poll.
Gallagher, regardless of Labor’s poor performance, remains the most prominent labor candidate in Molonglo by far. It’s not surprising that the bulk of the Labor vote went to her.
Here’s another thought. The second and third Liberal are both on 0.29 while Caroline le Couteur of the Greens is on 0.36 quotas. She’ll last a long time and Rattenbury should be elected solely on Elena Kirschbaum’s votes. If she lasts and picks up some preferences from Labor and Liberal and a few from Elena, she could be in with a shot.
Feral: Which electorate’s Tharwa in?
Brindabella.
The booth vote is now coming in, and the late swing to Labor is indeed on.
Mexicanbeemer, with due respect, it’s not a matter of what people would rather do. There are good reasons why everybody who is able to do so should vote on the one day, at the end of a campaign. That is in fact what the law says – if electoral commissions are allowing anyone to cast a prepoll they are in fact breaking the law.
Haha Smyth’s conceded pretty much.
“Our goal was to get rid of Labor majority government and we succeeded”.
Thanks Adam, I wasn’t aware that the Law actually had restrictions on pre-polling.
Val Jefferies, the cranky old firefighter, lives in Tharwa.
So it looks like The Greens will not win 4 seats?
If the Greens get 2 members elected the Liberal Party can kiss government goodbye.
Few people ever thought the Greens would get four, but Caroline and Elena are both polling strongly. Too early to rule them out. I’ve seen a lot of Labor votes go back and forth between Greens and Labor.
i hope the greens get 4
Adam and mexicanbeemer
Pre-polling is now also extended to voters who are blind or have low-vision. Perhaps there has been an epidemic of hysterical blindness in Canberra brought on by the thought of voting with the masses?
Canberra and blindness there is a joke in that but I’ll leave that up to others
Why is it easier for a blind person to vote on Wednesday rather than Saturday?
Surely if you’re blind on Saturday you’ll be blind on Friday?
“Excuse me, I know I’m supposed to vote tomorrow, but I’m planning on sticking a fork in my eye tonight, so could I vote pre-poll?”
Thanks Michael. That’s one candidate popular with the neighbours.
Perhaps it is easier for blind people to get to the polling booth during the week, when there is public transport, than on Saturday.
More likely though, they provide special support for the blind at prepolls, but don’t have the staff/facilities to have it on every booth on the day.
Greens vote picking up in Molonglo, now 1.42 quotas. Shane now on 0.71 with Caroline on 0.37 and Elena on 0.35. Interesting. It’s not unreasonable that one Caroline or Elena could beat Giulia or Jeremy Hanson for the last spot.
All the booths that have come in have a better Labor vote than the prepolls. I think what has happened is that the Rudd stimulus package has produced a late swing to Labor, which the prepolls have not reflected. It would follow that as the booth vote comes in Labor’s chances of 8 seats will improve.
abc elections page(s) slower than Trig Palin
ok..that was in bad taste
Ben I can’t see Caroline making it. The Green vote is likely to go down from here, not up, given that its the electronic votes that are in, plus one very Green booth. If this % holds she might have a ghost of a chance, but is her vote falls even a fraction of a percent she’s gone, and I think that’s pretty likely.
Adam, are you using data from scrutineers? I can hardly see any data from today on the commission website, and what is there is from very a-typical booths.
Zombie Mao I just laughed my dinner all over the computer. Thanks.
Heya Ben, you know as well as I do that the Green vote always is better early in the night. Molonglo needed to be closer to 17 or 18 at this stage of the night if she was to have any chance.
Definitely 3 Greens in though.
I understand feral, but so far it HAS gone up measurably.
Ah, it’s gone backwards.
I’m not expecting anything ridiculous, just reporting the possibilities I’m seeing.
I’d been laughing with my partner about the tackiness of the ‘Vote Guilia with a G’ campaign… but hey! I suppose it’s done some good for her!
Western Australians are smarter than stupid Canberrans. Thats for sure.
hooray the nutjob is back
Honest John is the resurrection of Tabatha perhaps?
must be Sarah Palin
I am repeating what people are saying on ABC Radio.
How dissapointing
I thought Adam was channeling the scruitneers with his awesome psychic powers
I save my awesome psychic powers for more important matters.
You Canberrans are a national disgrace- its beyond comprehension. Canberrans need to get the brains of Western Australians.
The paper count is taking absolute AGES. Only 2.3% added in since electronic votes.
I’m pleased to hear that I have brains.
Honest John, I think William has a rule against vulgar trolling.
I am led to believe that the polling was taken to retirement homes, hospitals, etc during the week, plus you could vote early if you were going to be out of town. Canberrans are notorious for heading for the coast at the first sign of sun, plus there are the attractions of sin city down the freeway.
That would be Queanbeyan, I take it?
By Honest John’s logic, Australia is also a national disgrace.
Of course it takes ages. First of all you’ve gotta unfold them, then sort them into columns, then sort them into individuals within columns when all different ballots have the candidates in a different order, then tally them. It takes a lot longer than a federal primary count.
I’m sure the Liberals privately believe that Australia is indeed a disgrace for depriving them of their divine right to rule.
What ever happened to all the Lefties who for nearly a decade went on about the Country having a nasty soul that was selfash and lasy and uncaring! I do miss hearing them.
Honest John @ 76. The last time I had a look at the West Australian results the ALP won more seats than the Liberals.
Gees it’s a tough crowd here for the 300,000 low vision voters in Oz!
Electronic Voting Trials for Electors who are Blind or have Low Vision
http://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/e_voting/low_vision.htm
Vicki Dunne (Lib candidate) seems to be holding out hope that The Greens might be open to supporting a Lib government.
Unlikely, Vicki. Unlikely.
I still don’t understand why early voting helps blind or visually-impaired voters.
77 – Rudd won.
Adam, I think the reason why it is seen as being easier is the AEC office isn’t as busy as a polling booth therefore it might be easier for a blind person to feel relaxed before standing over the paper.
Yes! Gary Rudd did Win!
Does anyone think Frank Pangallo’s in the hunt?
According to Brendan Smyth’s twisted logic Canberra really wants a Green government.
Nah, Pangallo just wrote himself off.
There is a lot of things Canberra want! the rest of us have a different idea for Canberra
Yeah, like throwing their councillors out of ‘parliament’ and into a town hall.
Meredith Hunter looks fairly stoked.
Ah, good old respect for democracy. Don’t like the result, call for the parliament to be abolished. All class, there.
Adam
It’s probably a resources thing. If there are only 29 places in Oz with the electronic low vision voting and 300,000 potential voters, they’d have to process 10,000 in a day at each polling place which is clearly impossible. Lots of the pre-poll places were Vision Australia or RSB offices which might only be small.
The AEC site didn’t say how many actually used the pro-poll electronic machines.
Regarding the race for the second Liberal seat in Brindabella, remember that Brendan Smyth is only on 0.79 quotas, so you can’t expect preferences from him. The race will be decided by preferences from the last two Liberal candidates.
Rebecca! I respect democracy but I’m not a fan of three tiers of Government and it was a joke at Canberra’s expense in response to a previous post that reckon someone knew the Canberra wanted a Green Government
Woah, Rebecca. I’m pretty happy with the result as a matter of fact. My party is going to triple their representation.
However, I’m definitely in the group of people who view the ACT elections as trumped up council elections.
Labor vote is coming up slightly in newer results. Green vote is also down slightly.
Big leap in the Brindabella count on ABC, and Doszpot still further ahead of Pratt.
“Doszpot” – Surely you’re kidding!
On latest figures, swing against LNP growing in ACT. Now 2.2%.
Haha Antony – “A pox on both your houses”.
SNIP: Offensive comment deleted, commenter banned – The Management.
I’m curious how did the ALP vote go in the suburbs directly hit by the Bushfires? I know they were a few years ago but I’m wondering if the result there were different in anyway from elsewhere
Have just tuned in – has anyone tried to run with “federal implications” yet?
Honest John #100 is one of the dumbest post I have ever read on here! you should get a prize maybe a whoopee custon
Why does Zed pronounce his surname Seselja, with a hard “J”? As a Croatian name it should be pronounced Seselya, which is surely aslso easier for Anglos to pronounce?
Labor is now ahead in Brindabella.
To Grog! At Canberra level No! the NSW results again No
100. Aboslute idiotic comment. Disgraceful.
The federal implication is that Rudd’s rescue package has produced a late swing to Labor, which is showing up as the booth vote comes in. Even if the media is too dumb to notice this connection, I have noticed it and that’s all that matters.
SNAP.
Actually a town like Canberra may have federal implication for all those Public Servents would know in general terms how Rudd was going and this would be the perfect opportunity to past judgement.
Greens 1.44 quotas in Molonglo – back up.
I wouldn’t even try and reading a Federal implication into this. No way there would be a 10% swing, or anything like that, against Rudd were an election held today.
111 nope no 10% swing [against] Rudd
Oz I see you comment on ACT elections being ‘trumped up local council elections’. I assume you also think of the NT and Tasmanian elections in the same way?
I also presume you’d like Canberrans to be divorced of their own voice and for decisions to be made by… who exactly?
The only seats that might swing against Rudd by 10% would most likely be traditional safe Liberal seats
I’m finding this hard to read because I don’t know how many votes exhaust. Are there Libs at risk of not winning a second seat in Ginninderra?
I’m presuming once a number of votes exhaust it pushes the highest ranked people’s quotas up because there’s less of the vote to be divided?
Itep – the ACT is the size of Blacktown council. What’s wrong with local government? Newcastle is a regional city with a bigger population than Canberra, do they deserve a Westminster system of government as well?
Who should make laws on behalf of the ACT then?
William we’ll just have to wait and see. The ALP v Liberal balance is slowly tipping towards Labor as the count progresses, but it will all depend on the cut-up next week. Labor scrutineers say it could still go 3-1-1, and that Labor’s position is improving.
(As I have been saying all night.)
I agree – Canberra should be a City Council in the Brisbane mould as the capital of a new state covering the Riverina and South Coast of NSW.
Back to the topic, I can’t see Vicki Dunne losing in Ginninderra. It’s much more likely Giulia Jones might lose (to either Green, they are running neck and neck. In my booth Elena beat Caroline slightly and that hasn’t been phoned in yet). But I don’t think it will happen.
I think Canberra’s population is about 50,000 more than Newcastle.
Tasmania is a State, the Norther Terrority should be a State but the ACT is simplly an administrative area set up to ensure that NSW would support federation.
The ACT can have a Local Government that operates just like every other Local Government around Australia.
Why do they need “laws” made on behalf of them anyway? If they get their own laws, you have no argument for not allowing Newcastle to have its own laws Let the Federal government take care of them like they did for the vast majority of Australian history and then they have council.
Ruawake when I said Newcastle I obviously meant Hunter =P
I mean we are talking about the ACT, so an apples to apples comparison is fair.
Canberra, Newcastle. ACT, Hunter. =)
So in other words the ACT has no distinct identity of its own, it is neither part of a state nor able to make laws for itself?
Does Newcastle consider itself a part of New South Wales? I’d imagine yes. But you’re arguing that Canberrans have no right to have a government entirely of their own, and instead to be ruled by a government that they have little say in electing.
I imagine you think the Northern Territory should also be stripped of its government; and once the population of Tasmania slips comparatively to the rest of Australia; for it to do so as well.
Yeah ok quite off-topic. I’m done on this for now.
William, what do you think the chances are of the Greens picking up a 2nd in Molonglo?
[ACT is simply an administrative area set up to ensure that NSW would support federation].
My recollection is that the motive for establishing the ACT was so that parochial politicians would not have control over the seat of government. Self-government for the ACT has negated that rationale. The Commonwealth should have direct control of the Parliamentary zone and the rest of the ACT should be part of NSW with a mayor and council like any other regional city.
Itep! having three levels of Government does not make an identiy if anything it shows what a silly thing State Governments are! do the people of the Hunter, Cobar or Broken Hill need a government in Victoria to tell them they are from NSW, if anything they have next to nothing in common with Sydney and I can go though every single state and show the regional differents that have a bigger impact on identy than if yiou have a State Government
Um, people… unless they’ve started up a Canberra City Council when I wasn’t looking, the ACT only has two tiers of government.
Adam! Didn’t the NSW Government expect in exchange for their support that the Capitol had to be within a certain distance of Sydney
I think so, Mexicanbeemer. Grade 6 history…
Well I don’t agree with ‘getting rid of the states’ either. I think local councils are useless and devolving to only having a national government would reduce the ‘representativeness’ of government. But to each their own.
With the Greens on 1.45 in Molonglo and the Liberals on 2.51, surely the Greens have a chance of getting ahead of them and winning a second seat. Anyone disagree?
Can we for once have a discussion about ACT politics that doesn’t descend into a tiresome round of Canberra-bashing by people who know nothing about either the ACT or its politics?
Re 61,
Depends on which side of the fence you sit on
….. I don’t sit on your side and in my polling booth tonight (which is in Brindebella) and I worked it so I helped count it, we had about 1720 or so – Labor got 6** and Libs got 5**, don’t remember the exact numbers but the difference was 30 in favor of Labor …… [ Chisholm Primary School ]
This decision was taken to prevent rivalry between Sydney and Melbourne over which city would be the capital. Bear in mind that in the 1890s Melbourne was bigger than Sydney, and had a good claim to be the capital.
The swing against the Libs territory wide is now at 3%.
William, I think they might have a chance but won’t a large proportion of the almost 3% of Mulcahy votes go straight to the Libs?
By the way did anyone else notice that the ABC 8:30 news in Sydney made no mention at all of the elections in NSW or the ACT?
Re 72,
Are you talking about Fyshwick?
…….. {it isn’t that far down the road}
Haha now Adam is going to start a Melbourne vs. Sydney debate.
It’s a definite chance William. The Robson Rotation system on one hand appears to force individual candidates to really get out there and work the community.
Re 77,
Nothing wrong with us at all, alive and well in this house
…….
What did they talk about, albertross? In their half hour 7:00 report that’s pretty much all they talked about.
Good call, Oz.
Swing against the Libs now at 3.0% , Greens only have one good both left in Molonglo (O’Connor).
It will be spun that Labor lost majority Govt. but it was a very unusual election the delivered this situation.
A very bad result for the Liberals so far.
Greens have closed the gap! 2.48 vs. 1.48!
William, as a Green, I’d say the problem for us for the second Molongolo seat is not getting ahead of the Libs number 3, it’s reaping prefs from the smaller independents. Mulcahy and the Motorists are on 0.2 and 0.24 quotas respectively, and both will flow strongly Lib, you’d have to imagine.
Still hoping, but still very happy with a 7/7/3 split!
Not a ringing endorsement for Zed. The party has gone backwards in the primary vote and maintained the number of seats it won at the last election. And for all of Mr Smyth’s talk on the ABC tonight about Ms Gallagher’s ’spin’ he seemed to be doing an awful lot of spinning himself.
William: I’d be surprised. The polls that had the Greens winning a second seat were closer to 1.8 quotas, as I recall, and I’m not sure where those preferences would come from.
It’s conceivable, I suppose, but where would the preferences come from? Unless there was a pretty good sized Labor surplus, the minor parties and candidates in Molonglo, the Canberra Party, the Community Alliance, the Motorist Party and the LDP are all right-leaning to far-right. The only candidates who might have been especially Green friendly, former Liberal MLA Helen Cross and independent Democrat Greg Tannahill both got thumped.
I suppose it might be possible if the Greens got some leakage from the Community Alliance (where their lead candidate, Norvan Vogt, was until very recently a Democrat, and ran for the Senate in 2007), and protest votes coming back from Frank Pangallo (who doesn’t have the right-wing reputation that his Right to Life endorsement would suggest). But you’d have to say that it’s a bit of a long shot at this point.
Spot on there itep. It’s always great when political parties claim a swing against them is an endoresment.
Breaking news – Challenger causes upset and beats Iron Chef Chinese, Chen Kenichi.
I’m pleased to see Steve Pratt lose his seat. I’ve always thought him a nasty piece of work, and his behaviour in Serbia was deeply suspicious.
For what it is worth, Molongolo and Ginnin. both had more parties running on the ballot than Brindebella did. Here in Brindebella, we only had 5 parties running on the ballot. It could well be (if votes are leaking from the Libs in those places) that there was simply more choices for people to park their protest vote in. At my polling booth in Chisholm primary; we had (as I recall) numbers for Greens, Motorist Party, Community Alliance and informals ALL between 100 and 200 inclusive.
Rebecca, if there’s substantial exhaustion of minor party votes in Molonglo mightn’t it help the Greens?
Can anyone illustrate how preference flows are working? Are the right-wing independents going to the Libs? Are they being exhausted?
LTEP: I think the Liberals have done okay in the circumstances.
A different Liberal Party should have been in with a good shot, following the upheaval of the 2006 budget. Coming into this year, though, they had a hopelessly divided and pretty incompetent caucus that was too right-wing for the ACT, no clear decent leader, and a recent history of massive instability, having just had to expel the Shadow Treasurer. It’s pretty hard to come back from that.
Seselja managed to present a reasonably consistent front, at least managed to put the internal chaos on hold, and it showed. Moreover, he’s seen that the Libs not only hold their ground, but helped run some of their worse members (and factional protagonists) out of politics. A Liberal caucus without wacky Steve Pratt and hopeless Jacqui Burke will be a much more functional one, although they’d be a lot better off if Vicki Dunne bit the dust in Ginninderra too.
It puts them in a better position for 2012, but they’ll never win another election here until they actually get their candidates and policies in line with the demographics of the ACT; running hardline conservatives like Giulia Jones and Steve Doszpot is madness, as while they might be at least competent (a step up from the last batch) they’re still going to go down like a ton of bricks with any marginal voters.
Oz
They talked about international news only. You’d think they cover the results (as at 8:15 pm) at least…
LTEP: That’s another possibility, yeah. One can hope…
Liberal swing is now -3.2%
I’m sure there will be more post-election analysis on this later, but The Greens have gone off lately. In the NT, WA, NSW Council elections and now today, both in the ACT and NSW by-elections.
Just a quick note for WA bludgers with either a HD TV or Set top box that the ABC HD Coverage of the count is about to start in WA, so it might be a bit out of date because of the timezone, but still interesting to watch events.
Bloody ACORN, they must’ve infiltrated Iron Chef as well…
Or has Iron Chef turned to the Hare-Clark system?
I have just been talking to a group of local teenagers, and its not good news for the Libs. About 50/50 for ALP/Greens. If the Greens had a real high profile leader their vote would have increased among this cohort (about 18).
I think we are seeing the low water mark for the ALP in Canberra as they swing between majority/minority government. If the Libs couldnt get a majority this time around they will find it very hard to do at any other election.
It will be interesting to see how the Lib factions pan out in view of the new members elected. Believe it or not there were at least 3 factions in the last Assembly. Pratt seems to be gone and he was a Smythe fan.
The poor result for Val Jefferies will hopefully shut him up regarding the bushfires and remind him that his 15 minutes expired some time ago.
I think we’ll have to call it the “Kaga-Rank” system. 4 electors who get too preference.
ABC news chick is choking over the fact that there’s going to be 3 Greens in the assembly.
Bob Brown looking like the legend that he is.
HAHA Smyth and Gallagher both looked like they were going to cry seeing that footage.
Some Labor voting boots must have just come in. Labor gained half a percent in the state wide count with the last update. Greens lost 1% in Ginninderra in the last update.
http://australiavotes2007.blogspot.com/2008/10/live-act-election-results.html
I think The Greens are pretty safe in Ginninderra.
Smyth still sucking up to The Greens.
Asutralia 3/68 … Hayden another duck. (India made 469)
Rattenbury completely shredding the major parties attempts to suck up to him.
He’s sounding a lot like Brendan “Kingmaker” Grylls. I think he’s going to support Labor, but wants to get something decent out of it.
The issue in Ginninderra is not whether the Greens will win a seat. It’s whether Labor can pinch a third seat, leaving the Libs with one. Labor is saying on ABC radio that their figures show this is still too close to call.
Michael Cusack: This is hardly the low water mark for the ALP. There is no history of majority government in the ACT – 2004 was pretty widely accepted to be a bit of a one-off because of an inordinately popular government, and the ALP hasn’t lost terribly much from that point. The Liberals will never, ever win majority government in the ACT – it’s just impossible with our demographics. Even Kate Carnell never came close to achieving that one at the height of her popularity, having to rely on the Greens and motley independents through both of her terms.
I agree that it’ll be interesting to see what happens to the Liberal factions, though. I suspect that if Smyth continues to play ball and not undermine Seselja, the likely absence of Pratt and Burke will make the prospect of internal drama a lot less likely.
Oz: I bet the Greens are going to copy the Brendon Grylls schtick in a large part. However, while the media is still flocking to Rattenbury, I’d be careful about assuming he’s going to emerge as leader; if it comes to having to choose one (i.e. if they go for a formal coalition) it might well be Meredith Hunter.
I’m not surprised that Ginninderra might well go to 3-1-1 after having been out there all day, but I have to say I’m a little bit surprised that Dave Peebles looks to be the Labor candidate who stands to benefit. The Labor factions were running separate campaigns all day, and the left’s campaign for Adina Cirson struck me as being quite a bit more organised and had more supporters out.
Meredith Hunter is definitely a lot “cooler” than I expected. But it’s Rattenbury who’s been fronting the press.
How is new Labor caucus going to play out? IIRC it’s currently dominated by the left, correct? Any lefties been replaced by people from the right?
It seems Green is the new black
Libs swing now -3.3%
Interesting outcomes in the the last three state/territory elections. NT – hung parliament averted by only 78 votes (ie. Fannie Bay). WA – hung parliament. ACT – hung Parliament. Are we to expect a continuation of the trend of tight elections in the future?
Zed’s gone missing apparently.
Am I missing something – I don’t seem to have had a substantial booth come in for almost an hour, but there are still quite a few outstanding (almost half in Molongolo). Is my computer just not refreshing for some reason, or have things just stalled at the commission for some reason.
Apparently half the AMP votes have been exhausted in Molonglo. That will benefit The Greens.
Oz:
The caucus is currently equally split – three left, three right, and Jon Stanhope unaligned in the middle.
The ALP has lost the seat of Karin McDonald (right) in Brindabella, and if they lose Wayne Berry’s (left) seat in Ginninderra, that’ll balance each other out in caucus.
If, however, Labor do hold Berry’s seat, he’ll be replaced by Dave Peebles (right). There’s also the matter of Joy Burch (who I have no clue about) maybe replacing Mick Gentleman (left).
Assuming Gentleman holds on and Peebles loses, you’d have 3 left (Corbell, Gallagher, Gentleman), 3 right (Hargreaves, Barr, Porter) and Stanhope in the middle, same as now. If Peebles wins, that would change to 3-1-4 – and yeah, don’t know about Burch.
Lib swing now -3.4%
Oz: That’s very good news…*fingers crossed*
Interesting. That would be a blow for Gallagher’s chances to become Chief Minister? She seemed pretty confident, if she didn’t say so in as many words.
Haha, Grog. Let’s play a game. Take a shot for every 0.1% swing against the Libs.
Hic!
Yeah, you’re probably right that a Peebles victory would help Barr’s chances to succeed Stanhope at Gallagher’s expense. I have a bit of a feeling that the party might still go with Gallagher regardless though – she’s considerably more popular, and while he’s occasionally touted, she’s still almost an Anna Bligh-style assumed successor.
Molonglo:
Liberal – 2.47
Greens – 2.48
Sneaking up on them, but I have no clue on what booths have yet to come in.
Rebecca. I acknowledge that there is no real history of majority govt, but I put that down to the number of independents that were decreasingly elected in the earlier elections. Now we are down to the three serious contenders and I think it will happen again occasionally. I think the Greens are susceptible to a smear/negative campaign along the lines of financial recklessness and being too anti development.
I agree with you about the Libs. I think they will probably never have a majority and only have minority govt once in a blue moon. Their supporters are dying and young people seem to be keener on ALP and Greens. I put this down to Howard in that his racism and general bastardry seems to have really disillusioned the young. Several of the kids I spoke to earlier mentioned an incident where a young kid at their school was taken out of class and deported. They were obviously traumatised by the incident.
Zed is still missing…
Sorry, Greens quota is 1.48.
Haha.
Smyth: “We had one purpose – to get rid of Labor majority government.”
Gallagher: “…Didn’t you want to win?”
Lib swing now -3.6% (2 shots Oz!)
Lib swing now -3.6%!!!!
Greens at +6.4%.
They’ve got as many votes as the other minor parties and independents combined.
There is quite a chance of minority government in Tasmania next election and I would not rule it out in Victoria and I don`t know about Queensland and South Australia.
Am I the only one who keeps reading “Community Alliance” as “Communist Alliance”?
Which state has the next election? As mentioned earlier, there seems to be a pattern developing with hung parliaments.
oooo snap!
Great shot by Gallagher.
That’s interesting.
According to the Elections ACT website, O’Connor, Baker Gardens (Ainslie, I believe), Lyneham, Dickson and Campbell are all still not in. They’re all booths that I’d expect to be very strong for the Greens (and in the case of the first three, they’d have to be three of the best booths in the territory).
About the only booth on that list that I’d expect to be particularly good for the Liberals would be Palmerston in Gungahlin.
If that list is right, then this could get very interesting.
Next state election is Qld due in late 2009, though it can be called early.
Rebecca, could you please send me the link to that website? I tried to find out what booths had been counted but I couldn’t find it. Maybe I’m blind.
the election or the result??
MOLONGLOOOOOOOOO!
2.41 Liberal, 1.52 Greens. Must be those strong Green booths.
Stanhope’s about to make a speech.
There is still an outside chance that the Greens will pinch a second seat in Molonglo, and a somewhat better chance that Labor will pinch a third seat in Ginninderra. So the Libs are only guaranteed 5 seats. An 8-5-4 result is possible, 7-6-4 is also possible, 8-6-3 is also possible. But 7-7-3 is still the most likely.
Rebecca, that’s interesting, but you keep talking about the caucus being 3, 3, 1. Since they’ve got 9 members, where do the other two line up?
Oz: http://www.elections.act.gov.au/ENS/pollingplaces/pplist.html would seem to show the polling places counted, unless I’m missing something.
Libs swing back to -3.4%
Feral: No, that’s not what I said. The caucus, as it stands now, would be 3-3-1, with the factions exactly balanced and Stanhope in the middle. The caucus prior to the election was 4-4-1 – they just lost one seat on each side (assuming that they have in fact lost the third seat in Ginninderra).
Stanhope’s reckons the ALP will get up to “around 40%”. Must be expecting a big late surge!
What do we do know, Grog? …Drink water to sober up?
Stanhope just called The Greens “The great community party”.
He also sounds like he’s going to leave his wife for Katy Gallagher.
Now “Our great friends, The Greens”.
Suck upppppp.
No Oz, have a double shot so it all seems like a bad dream!
Rebecca: Thanks. So O’Connor still not counted?
Grog: Done and done.
They found Zed.
Aussies 4/102 – Clarke out for 23
Anyhoo that’s it for me. cheers all.
Oz: Yes.
…and if I’m not mistaken, I think that Green surge might have come from Red Hill, which is a bit of a shock. I’d have expected a bit of a Green vote there, but in a race against the Libs I’d have expected it to turn out firmly for the Libs.
Apparently the Liberal Party is “back in the ACT”. Interesting spin on a -3.4% swing and a possible loss of two seats.
Stanhope says it’s a “fantastic result”, Zed says it’s a “great result”. These guys must be on crack.
I have no idea what results may be expected from them, but the booths still to report in Molonglo are… Baker Gardens, Barton, Campbell, Dickson, Hughes, Lyneham, Mawson, Ngunnawal, O’Connor, Oalmerston, Weston.
It’s a mediocre result for Labor, a stinker for the Libs. The Greens are obviously the winners.
Oz it’s just like the late seventies and early eighties in NSW. If a State Liberal Leader kept their seat it was a near victory.
Why are those booths in Molongolo so slow?
Albertross – they’re doctoring the results. Those are the best Green booths.
Antony Green had the 7th seat in Molonglo in the bag for the Libs earlier, now he’s wavering.
Chat on ABC Radio suggests independent Mark Parton (6.6 per cent of the vote) is not out of the hunt for that final Ginninderra.
On that point Oz in Cabramatta the booth I was on the Libs picked up an apparent case of personation and an attempt to multiple vote.
Never seen that before in my life – well 42 years of working on booths.
In Australia at least. When I lived in Ireland I worked with a Fianna Fail hothead who collected and used no less than 50 voter ID cards on polling day.
And also that Frank Pangallo can’t be written off in Molonglo.
I can’t compare the results directly because the Elections ACT has them in an Excel document, and I’ve somehow managed to bugger Excel up on this computer.
But of those, Baker Gardens, O’Connor and Lyneham would have to be three of the best booths in Canberra for the Greens. Campbell and Dickson I’d expect to be pretty good too, considering the high amount of students and such in both.
The Libs I’d expected to be good in Palmerston, Ngunnawal and Barton, but the last of those I doubt would be a very big booth.
I have no idea about Hughes, Mawson and Weston without being able to see the ‘04 results.
Adam
Reflecting on the Rocking around the World thread I had said there was a shift to the centre, away from the right, but not necessarily a swing to the left. However this result suggests that there may be a swing to the left after all. 2PP figures hide where the shift away from the right was going, but these results say it is going to the Greens (further left of Labor). Labor better keep working on those climate change policies…
William, where are you getting the prediction that Dave Peebles would emerge victorious if Labor won Ginninderra, as opposed to Adina Cirson? According to the Elections ACT website, Cirson’s 100 votes ahead of him.
Mmm, I don’t think Pangallo has a chance anymore. Motorist Party preferences aren’t going anywhere and he’d need around 3/4 the Mulcahy preferences which I don’t he’ll get.
Lyneham’s come in now, reflected in a boost for The Greens.
Rebecca, that was nearly two hours ago and clearly the numbers have changed since then. I’ll add an update on this.
I wish Ben hadn’t gone home, he was scrutineering in Molonglo. Bet he regrets it now.
The swing against the Libs is no small matter either, particularly in Brindabella.
Lyneham is phenomenal for GRN. Whats the story there?
Ngunnawal just came through and slightly negated Lyneham.
People might be dissatsfied with Labor but they’re not exactly flocking to the Libs.
Rebecca, you picked Campbell wrong =P. It was 41% Liberal. Dickson was evenly split between Liberal and Green, Labor took the lions share.
More than slightly I believe: the Liberals are now 2.50 quotas and the Greens 1.46. Haven’t the Greens gone backwards?
Jeez Ngunnawal is stony ground…
Argh, Libs up 2.49 vs. 1.47. But all their strongest booths have come through. Greens still haven’t got their strongest. It better be strong.
All normal polling places in according to the ACTEC website.
O’Conner just came through. It’s 30% GRN vs. 19% Lib. Dunno if ABC’s updated.
Greens and Libs back on .48, like I expected after O’Connor.
76 votes seperating the second and third Green Candidates in Molonglo.
I have a notion that a lot of feminists would have voted Katy Gallagher one and then crossed to the Greens. At the last Tasmanian election, the Greens had a surprise last-minute win in Bass under precisely these circumstances, thanks to Labor votes leaking from Michelle O’Byrne. Are there any scrutineers out there who can provide any intelligence here?
Quite right, but I don’t think what they’re on is good enough for them. Half the AMP vote is exhausted but the rest flow to the Libs, as will Mulcahy.
They’re going to have to take a significant amount of Pangallo preferences.
Remembering that those two Greens candidates who are separated by 76 votes are both women.
And she got 1.3 quotas so 3/13 of her preferences will come into play.
Hmm, William’s point is a good one. I don’t think we’ll find out Molonglo for a couple of days, unfortunately.
Only 72 votes between them now.
Libs would have to do well at Campbell or they should pack up – at a recent Fed election wasn’t it one of only four out of 75 ACT booths to vote Liberal (others if I recall were Deakin, Hall, & Tharwa)?
They’ve got 41% at Campbell so far, pretty damn good.
Comment at The-RiotACT:
Now 75 votes (between the 2nd and 3rd Green in Molonglo).
I think I’m a bit more optimistic than Oz. The AMP and Mulcahy votes will go to Libs, but I still think some of the Community Alliance vote could leak due to Norvan Vogt being known as a Democrat. I also think they could probably be hopeful of a decent amount of preferences from Pangallo voters; I suspect a fair few people disgruntled with the government will put him first due to his profile and then go Green (hell, I nearly did until RiotACT let out at the last minute that he was endorsed by Right to Life).
Has counting stopped for the night?
I’d say that based on the way the preferences flowed in the trial distribution using votes cast electronically today and at pre-poll, there is a very good chance the Greens wil get the last seat in Molonglo rather than the Libs. You can look a the trial distribution here. With a primary vote of 2.66 quotas for the Libs vs 1.36 for the Greens in that count, Jones beats Le Couteur by .08 of a quota.
Compare to that count, the relative primary vote position of the Greens vis-s-vis the Libs has improved by 0.3 of a quota as a result of counting paper ballots this evening.
It will be interesting to watch in the next couple of days as the paper ballot preferences are entered.
Very interesting, Canberra Boy. So there’s still hope.
It certainly is – thank you for calling attention to that, CB.
Rebecca it’s also worth looking at the trial distribution I linked above to get answers to your questions at #256. Mulcahy’s preferences went 41% to Libs, 23% Pangallo, ALP 19% and Greens 17%. Motorists’ were scattered pretty evenly over surviving parties.
Pangallo’s preferences were very close to one quarter each for ALP, Lib, Greens and exhausted.
Canberra boy, if that’s the case, The Greens are going to have to rely on Labor preferences. Lets see if William’s theory holds up and there’s a flow from Gallagher.
The problem for the 2nd Green in Molongolo is that while the Green vote overall is higher than the electronic (surprising given what Antony Green said) its also skewed quite differently. Rattenbury’s share is much higher now than electronicly, while Le Coutier is down a fair way with a smaller fall for Kirshbaum. Goodness knows why electronic Green voters spread their votes amongst the candidates while those voting on paper go for the lead, but it seems that’s the case at least here.
That could make it tough. That said, I haven’t looked at how the Liberal votes have shifted between the electronic and the paper.
No flow from Gallagher, Oz. Her surplus amongst the electronic votes went about 2% each to the three Greens and a few stray votes elsewhere, but the overwhelming majority to Labor candidates. Corbell got more than Barr – Labor voters obviously know Barr is in the wrong faction…
So Canberra Boy, I’m struggling to see how The Greens could have made up that gap in quota’s. Motorists and Pangallo are split evenly and Mulcahy goes to Libs over Greens by more than 2-1, as expected.
That means that The Greens got the lions share from the ungrouped and CAP?
Yes – Greens did do quite well out of CAP – about as much as Lib-ALP combined. Pangallo & Mulcahy were still in the count at that point and also benefited. Most of the Ungrouped votes were for Helen Cross, and Greens got more than Libs of these, too. You really should download the second spreadsheet at the linked page and have a trawl through the numbers with a calculator!
HA! Took a four hour beer break, return to discover the swing against the Libs had lept from -2.2 to -3.7%!
How do they do it as non-incumbents? Its astounding!
It’s a special talent lefty
Basically the conclusion is that the ALP are no longer left enough for Canberra.
socialism. its coming back.
I think the summary the other day was OK: The ACT liberals are a rabble; nimbies and yimbies were upset at the lack of ‘real’ consultation (I meant that they were not getting what they wanted and were squeaking about it); and labour was too pro-development. this equates to a mild kick in the pants for labour, a further kick in the pants for the libs and a significant boost for the greens.
On the governance threads and, self definitely not being a driven Canberra basher:
1. having separate state governments for the NT, Tas and the ACT is sooo wasteful. They do not all need departments of health, education and so on, and so on. Jobs for the boys and the girls with precious little added value anywhere in sight. In fact the opposite. Pure duplication. ACT could get all that from NSW, the NT could get it from QLD or WA and Tas could get it from Victoria.
3. That is if we can really continue to afford a multiplicity of state governments at all. Basically they are accidents of colonial history, formed by means of communication, notions of governance and by technologies that are long, long gone. If it was Egypt, and using the same sort of logic, we would be running the place with Pharaohs. The set of states and territories constitutes a powerful drag on our economy because of all the duplication, the multiplicity of laws and the distortion of markets as they set out to compete with one another by bribing business to shift to some silly place or another. Why on earth would anyone seriously want to build submarines in Adelaide – a city at the edge of an increasingly dry desert? Crikey. Then, of course, there are all the snouts in the trough. Imagine the squeals of the porkers if they are ever denied their easy-access troughs! Increasingly Australia’s main problems are not regional or state-based – they are national or international.
3. Having states dissipates what little political talent we have. What a wasteland of politicians we have in Australia! Talk about spreading the vegemite thin! If you could pick the eyes out of them you might get one decent government and one decent opposition at national level.
4. There should be one national government, with the pollies being paid about what they should be worth, that is to say, about 10 times what they are getting now and no whinging about it, either. Closing the state governments could easily cover this additional cost.
5. garbage, some social amenity, some local social security and emergency housing could be run by truly local councils. The rest should be left to a proper national government.
Fortunately for those of us from the smaller states that will never happen. Try telling Tasmanians that they don’t deserve self government and see where that gets you.
And I don’t think those of us in the ACT with functioning health and education systems really want to have them ruined by the NSW govt.
Just sayin….
Pardon me for going away to sleep for a while. Where are we at now? Can Labor still win the third seat in Ginninderra? Can the Greens still win a second seat in Molonglo?
Adam, unlikely for Labor in Ginninderra and slightly more likely for The Greens in Molonglo.
OK. So the most likely result is 7-7-3, Labor loses 2 seats to the Greens, Libs get nothing. Not a bad result after two terms.
No Adam. A GREAT result. For the Greens.
A good result for the Greens, I agree. If they manage the fourth seat it will be a very good result.
I wonder how many State elections there have been where both major parties have actually lost seats?
Oz 277 – I wouldn’t have thought that that was all that rare actually. Both major parties dropping in their primary vote on the other hand would be rare.
Gary Bruce – Until The Greens rocked up, who else would they lose them too? Independents?
But I suppose this question only applies to Tasmania and the ACT with their PR system giving parties other than Labor and Libs a decent chance.
The ACT Libs haven’t lost any seats, not yet anyway. If the hold their seats in Ginninderra from Labor and in Molonglo from the Greens, they will have 7, as they did before the election.
Does the re-election of Labor mean that the ACT Assembly will now be enlarged from 5+5+7=17 to 7×3=21, as I think Stanhope said? That will be good news for the Greens. They will have three seats more or less permanently, with a chance at more if they can get to 2 quotas (25%)
Adam, I seem to recall that as much as Stanhope and others would like to increase the size of the Assembly, it’s in the hands of the feds and they won’t have a bar of it.
To put this election, and the benefits of multi-member electorates in context, on almost any reading of the figures the ALP would have won 17 nil in single single member electorates with the usual 2pp method of counting.
sorry, one single only!
279 – Oz let me revisit what you said at 277 and how I interpreted it. You said -
“I wonder how many State elections there have been where both major parties have actually lost seats?”
That to me says that both Labor and Liberal have lost seats to someone at the same election. I would imagine both parties exchanged seats at a few elections ie Labor won some off the Libs and the Libs won some off Labor. Surely that is still both parties losing seats.
Most elections have both parties swapping a few seats.
The question would be about a net loss of seats by both parties.
Right sorry, that’s what I meant. I was referring to a net loss of seats of both major parties. Of course that has not occurred yet in the ACT, but it is the chance the Libs may lose one that sparked the question.
Michael, that is of course why the ACT has the electoral system it has. There was a poll done at the time of self-government which showed that ACT voters overwhelmingly wanted single-member seats. But it was realised that, because Canberra has been deliberately designed as a socially homogenous city, and because of its social composition, if the ACT Assembly was to be elected from single-member seats, Labor would win all of them. So you have been stuck first with d’Hondt and now with Hare-Clark.
On the subject of in creasing the Legislative Assembly to 21 seats (3×7)
http://www.prsa.org.au/qn/2003a.html#section3
Thanks Tom, that’s very interesting.
Bogey Musidlak? He should start a law practice with Doszpot and Seselja.
And run it out of Musidlak’s house on Strzelecki Cr.
Actually Adam, whatever a poll at the time said, there was a referendum over single member electorates vs Hare Clark in 1995. Hare Clark got 60%, probably because people had realised that without it they wouldn’t have an opposition. I think its the only place in Australia where the electoral system has the authority of having been voted on.
Now 73 votes between the 2nd and 3rd Green candidates in Molonglo.
New thread.