Dubbo was close both at the by-election to replace McCrane with Fardell and her re-election at the 2007 election. Labor preferences assisted her on both occasions and with Labor on the nose their preferences will be fewer and fewer come 2011. This should assist the Nationals in reclaiming Dubbo and Tamworth on simple mathematical dimensions.

This is wrong – Labor didn’t run a candidate in the 2004 by-election. They got 11.1% in 2007… it’s hard to see them going much backwards from that. In 2007, Fardell was 0.9% behind the Nats on primary vote, but won by 0.9% – the figures here would suggest about half the Labor voters preferenced the Nats, so they’re neither helped not hindered by any reduction in Labor’s vote. If the Nats want to win Dubbo, they’ll have to do it themselves.

As for Torbay, he ain’t going nowhere… he beat the Nats 72.7 to 17.7 on primary last time. Tamworth’s more winnable for them, but if it’s following Northern Tablelands (and New England federally), the Nats are gonna get squelched. Will be interesting to see which one happens. As for Port Macquarie, they’ve blown their best chance to get that back.

Point fully taken, William.

Albertross, what a load of rubbish mate.

Dai Le was raised in the area, married in the area and her family in the area. So she is not some candidate that has absolutely no links to the community unlike the former Member for Coogeematta, Reba Meagher, who was parachuted from the eastern suburbs to run for Cabramatta in 1994. Your absolute failure to recognise that fact highlights your appalling double standards.

SNIP: Defamatory comment deleted – The Management.