Two states have moved to the McCain column on my weighted aggregates: Ohio, where polling for McCain remains surprisingly strong, and West Virginia, where a 50-42 result from Public Policy Polling puts the state back where it should probably have been all along. Obama’s lead in North Dakota is largely based on what was probably a rogue poll. For all that, Obama retains leads of over 5 per cent in enough states to win the election (note that the table below will be updated as new polls become available, so the aforementioned might be out of date at the time you read this).
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 56.0 | 37.0 | 3215 | 17 | |
| Maine | 54.8 | 38.9 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Washington | 55.1 | 40.5 | 2149 | 11 | |
| Iowa | 54.0 | 39.7 | 1160 | 7 | |
| Minnesota | 53.4 | 40.5 | 3177 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 52.2 | 39.5 | 3567 | 10 | |
| Pennsylvania | 52.7 | 40.3 | 3604 | 21 | |
| New Hampshire | 53.3 | 42.1 | 3360 | 4 | |
| Ohio | 51.8 | 40.8 | 3024 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 51.5 | 43.1 | 3324 | 13 | |
| New Mexico | 50.1 | 42.0 | 2427 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 51.9 | 45.7 | 3038 | 9 | |
| North Carolina | 50.7 | 45.5 | 4769 | 15 | |
| Nevada | 49.5 | 45.4 | 3221 | 5 | |
| Indiana | 48.8 | 45.0 | 3128 | 11 | |
| Missouri | 49.2 | 45.4 | 3063 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.8 | 43.6 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Florida | 46.6 | 45.9 | 3420 | 27 | |
| Montana | 45.5 | 47.5 | 2003 | 3 | |
| Georgia | 45.6 | 49.5 | 3533 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 43.0 | 50.0 | 3022 | 5 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 50.2 | 42.8 | - | 378 | 160 |
925 Comments
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Possum,
I based my guess upon Obama winning all of the states upon the RCP no tossup states map + Indiana ….. think that is either 374 or 375, I’m not on the computer right now that has that list on it ….
Possum,
Are you coming into our little guessing contest? I can’t remember, again not at the other computer in our house at the moment, but I don’t think you are in yet …..
Dario,
They are giving him way too much credit
…..
Possum, I just want to mention that you’re hypercorrecting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercorrection
sorry Dario, 703 should note that the number that they are giving McCain of between 3 and 4% chance …..
I try to avoid reading the comments
I agree, i reckon 1% at best
It’s not a good sign when McCain’s staffers are already sending out their resumes to prospective new employers.
jj, my sis sent me today unsolicited an article by the Detroit News – it was their endorsement for McCain. I responded by forwarding her, without additional comment, a cut and paste of an article that had heaps of veterans endorsing Obama as CIC
. My BIL is a sherrif’s deputy in real life after retiring on 20 years in the Army as a warrant officer …..
Juliem went:
I’m not too sure that Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia (let alone 2 of the 3 Nebraska Congressional Districts) have decided which way they are going to flip yet. So it’s 364 pretty much certain + X.
And I have no idea at the moment how big X is, or is even likely to be.
It’s a terrible habit J-D. I always fall into it when I’m trying to be precise.
Normally people just tell me to stop being a condescending prick and STFU!
Everyone makes mistakes.
Maybe the only reason I mentioned it is that I’m the condescending prick?
Possum @ 710, you have until 10pm on Tuesday Nov. 4th to get me your predictions should you decide you want all the way in. Need EV number & guess on if Obama wins MO & state that will put Obama over the top. I say 10pm as that is the approx. time I will go to bed (I’m on Canberra time) and the polls will be already in progress by the time I wake up Wednesday morning so that would be cheating to take any more guesses at that point.
10pm deadline on Tuesday the 4th …. Cheers
Don’t think we will have to wait up on the state of Washington for a result but IF we do we will be waiting awhile …
Zogby tracking poll in two points to +10
Obama 51 (down 1)
McCain 41 (up 1)
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1607
Re 511,
ltep, this post is for you
your 511 follows:
Now take a look at this. Just as a for example: (1) Canada – 75% of Canadians say it makes a difference to their country who is elected President of the USA & (2) Australia – their poll says 75% of Australians say it makes a difference to us who is POTUS & (3) Norway – 73% of Norwegians say it makes a difference to them who is elected POTUS.
They must be lying julie
Further to 718,
From the depths of that story comes this gem, a la Watergate in 1972
…..
NYT says Obama’s margin of victory if the election were held today would exceed Clinton’s in 1992 ….
Interesting Gallup Poll stats and analysis (’Bottom Line”) that the proportion of total RV’s who are first-time voters in 2008 is the same as it was in 2004 @ 13%:
“First-time voters show solid support for Obama, 65% to 31%. That is a better showing for the Democratic candidate than in 2004, when first-time voters favored John Kerry over George W. Bush by 55% to 41%.
Bottom Line
Each presidential election brings a new wave of voters into the electoral process. And although there is speculation that Obama’s candidacy — given his appeal to young and minority voters — could bring an unusually large number of first-time voters to the polls this year, the proportion of registered voters who say they will be voting for the first time is no higher than it was in 2004. This to some degree may reflect the high turnout in 2004, which was about 10 points higher than it had been in recent elections, and thus would have significantly diminished the available pool of potential first-time voters for the 2008 election. Thus, the fact that the 2008 estimate of first-time voters is no lower than the 2004 estimate may still reflect an impressive influx of new voters this year, even though it may not be proportionately higher than in the last election.
If you’re still around juliem, i’d love in on your competition.
So i’d like 400 for Obama (that’s Kerry plus Iowa, Florida, NC, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Georgia, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota and one Nebraskan vote (that can happen can’t it?)). Obviously Obama wins Missouri. And tipping him over 270? Hmmm…how about Florida? Yes i believe i’ll go with that.
Wooo!
Yo ho ho,
anyone can get in, I’ve put your guesses down. no awards here other than the pride of the one who got it right
……. you’re further out than I am, brave you are 
… good on you 
Ahh Juliem.
Definately bravado – false and based on nothing other than hunches!
Yo ho ho,
I’ve said the current state of the RCP no tossup states map + Indiana which is 375 …….
ROTFL …….
Are we the highest Juliem? i remember last year with the Fed, people were tipping high 80s and 90s (and some in the 100s). I went low (78) and was a little dissapointed i wasn’t more wrong!
Yo ho ho,
This is the range so far. Mine is 375, yours is 400 …
286
291
293
306
309
310
311
313
318
338
338
348
348
350
364
375
400
Right, so i’m clearly the crazy one! Good times.
As the title says, you know it is bad when …
William, Possum, HOLD the presses ….
Montana is the next most likely to flip on Intrade, probably thanks to this poll.
Indiana keeps going back and forth between the candidates.
McCain is toast!
That is all
Research 2000/Daily KOS: O-52 (up one) M-40 (down one)
Can I just make a quick prediction? That lady who was mutilated by the nasty black man is going to be a fraud. The B is too neat and even in depth to be done involuntarily. I’m guessing she turns out to be a very sick puppy. I have been wrong before but I’m pretty confident on this one.
Dio, agreed on that
….. back to the IR footy game, see you all in the morning, briefly. Going to Perisher for a bushwalk tomorrow and not home again till late in the day …. 
I assumed that the reason it was back to front is because she did it to herself while looking into a mirror.
A bit of poetic justice here. The McCarthyesque Bachman has been abandoned by the RNC who are pulling her advertising. With her opponent getting $1M based on her disgusting comments it’s bye bye time for Bachman.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/22/gop-pulling-its-ads-from_n_136941.html
Diogenes,
Gee you are boring when you go in to self righteous mode.
Fox is on about the narrowing at the moment, supported by a shot of Palin saying it is going to go “right down to the wire”
GG
I thought you had left us. It’s not “self-righteous”, it’s gloating. I haven’t had this much fun in a long time.
Now they’re on about ACORN again. Talk about predictable. It’s the same old tune over and over again.
NYT/CBS Obama 52% McLame 39% Good guys up by 13%
Now it’s Joe the Plumber again. These people are incredible.
Diogenes,
Careful what you wish for, you just might get it!
Then you got to to live with the consequences.
Darn,
They are not talking to lefties who have made up their mind, live in a different country and don’t vote.
Might pay for you to realise this.
741
I’m with you Diogenes. A damn good thrashing is what these conservative types need to bring them back into the real world, (if that’s possible)
746
GG, I know crap when I hear it – and trust me that’s what these people are talking. They are all in total denial…
GG
Actually, I pretty much lose interest once the election happens. I’m one of those “the journey is more important than the destination” people. And as Ron pointed out repeatedly, I’m really more interested in the Repugs getting the boot than Obama getting in. I’m hoping to avoid negatives more than achieve positives.
Fox News just appeals to people who watch Fox News. I don’t think they are convincing many people to switch from supporting Obama to McCain.
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