The Australian reports that this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45 last time. However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points to 59 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is down one point to 25 per cent. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 61-39 in its weekly survey, which is Labor’s second successive two point increase. Also included are questions on leadership approval and attitudes to the financial crisis.
UPDATE: Graphic here. An interesting set of figures: despite going backwards on two-party, Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 44 per cent, the Greens having returned to earth from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are well up: satisfaction up nine to 65 per cent and dissatisfaction down six to 26 per cent, his best figures since May and June respectively. He’s also taken a commanding lead over Turnbull as best leader to handle the economy, up nine since September 19-21 to 50 per cent with Turnbull down eight to 35 per cent. Also included are questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme, which over half now believe should be at least delayed.
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How the hell can Andrew Robb sit there and say “The Government shouldn’t get into debt to fund infrastructure”.
THEY WOULDN’T HAVE TO IF YOU DID SOMETHING SIFGYSGRFSGFOW:IHSFGOWFVKWUFGWFHFHSKJFGSfgoadhgagbdsjgbsklhgbsghvdahjvHGDFTYA^RI7tq9t08t80whgurhgw948hgwrgiurbgwrbgwrougewrgboreg
Ah, I’m so angry.
I do not see Rudd’s ‘guarantee’ & decisions same as most here Taking 3 specific decions he scores 1.5 out of 3 and with weighting of each decision’s importonce makes about 65% to 75% score
Th run on non APRA funds was because Rudd (correctly) very publicly guaranteed Bank deposits In effect Rudd was saying nothing else was guaranteed So of course people then took actually notice of th PM of Australia Trying to blame anyone but Kevin Rudd for th ‘run’ like Turnbull, th ‘oz’ or anyone else for th stampede is absurd Delays since in a Rudd Govt reponse has further worsened Managed Funds liquidity status Govt should wear this blame
Redemptions pre th Rudd anouncement was some Aussie investors individually “reading” th bad storm clouds in USA about non Banks , but rudd publicly confirmed these fears
Secod decision was th detail on our Guarantee …1 millon cap/fee & its range th insurance bit A very sensible framework announced by our Govt Although they lose a few points for some delay in getting this detail determined & then publicised Th million figure was always about target being approx 95% of all Bank deposits , and around 95% of deposits was min needed for th guarantee to hav credibility
Th first decision was Rudd’s best decison and th most crucial to make …to decide on a speedy , simplistic , unambiguous & undetailed basic message to all Australians that all our Banks were 100% safe as our whole govt was guaranteeing them This decisive step ensured our whole financial system wouldn’t be undermined & with it th whole economy (it will go into histary books with big plus)
Now to th Managed Funds arguments Firstly , shares ar liquid (investors can get your capital + or – losses) immediately whereas th funds ‘capital’ bit is frozen so no capital access available for capital needs (only pensions) Freeze is supposedly for 4-6 months , not sure what will dramatically change in future to allow them to fully unfreeze
Secondley , just because people chose a higher risk for higher yield is no argument for doing nothing except crazy idealogy Since Keating people hav been “encouraged” by Govt into superannuation to weany us of tax payer paid pensions Worse there’s been no hint from any Govt Labor or Liberal of a high risk such as this crisis nor from financal community Worser most of these Manged Funds were/ar well run…all Govt & community Groups hav supported this 26 billion sector existence (warts & all) So those who say bad luck to th investors
should tink again at th “encouragement” given ordinary aussies , and th consequences of this Sectors meltdown
Solutions ar difficult to avoid massive losses and th big 4 Banks fully taking over this sector as well with even more undesirables market dominance Managed Investments cann’t be obviously guaranted at all but not on idealology but as govt doesn’t know th viability of there portfolios (being pooled market linked investments) Rudds decision to fast track them to ‘banking’ type status is inadequate (but it buys some ‘time’ but not much) “confidence” is everything , afterall Rudds Bank guarantee of 1.2 trillion worked and th Govt did not hav that money in its back pockets
Perhaps some ronanomics , liquidity & confidence ar needed ..perhaps an insurance/fee hit will hav to be taken by Depositors to stabilize & perhaps after case by case very urgent prudential audit some form of redeemable pref shares to support it short term and/or an entry finally under some/full APRA supervision & criteria And our Malcolm , a typical opposition Leader , politcs number one , when has there been parisianship , some reckless statements early on but with some policy void now on Managed Funds he has no answer & not sure he reely wants to understand , whereas at least with Julie Bishop she reely knows she doesn’t understand
Turnbull from the Liberal Party doorstop still believes the Australian over the evidence of the Ken Henry at estimates last week.
http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=1937
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/10/its-out-much-awaited-ken-henry-hansard.html
Has any one else stopped arguing with GP for long enough to notice what was reported today about the front page splash in Saturday’s O.O. about the P.M.’s conversation with Dubbya.
At the time I read it, I thought it passing strange, to say the least, that such detailed reporting of quotes from someone who would have had to be in the room where the conversation was taking place was anonymous. This, on the basis, that if you were a reporter who was being gifted with such information, you would not expose your informer to the extent they clammed up.
It has apparently been a source of embarassment, reportedly, to the P.M., according to Michelle Gratten, with a headline about Rudd telling porkies; a slightly less sensational report in the SMH and a predictably over the top attack from Bolt.
The story has since died, however, I find the continued Rovian tactics against the P.M. obscene, as GP would say.
I’m confused about the Libs position. What do they support?
Costello says “too bad, we didnt make people go into managed funds”. True, though you DID do everything possible to encourage it before July 1 last year except throw in steak knives. He seems to be saying “dont touch it, govt” – much like Rudd/ Swan.
Talcum seems to be generally critical, for reasons he wont elaborate on, with no alternative policy provided. Plus he’s pulled his own money out before the guarantee, merely highlighting that these funds were in trouble beforehand, and that he’s been talking out his rear since.
But at the end of the day, none of these funds have actually collapsed – so technically there’s no problem.
Id say the real problem is this: lets allow pensioners to invest in bank deposits with the same tax benefits provided to other schemes, managed trusts etc etc (eg that only 50% of it is considered an ‘asset’ for pension purposes). Fact is, these funds have been getting a free kick off government for years, a leg up of monstrous proportions. Retirees have been strongly encouraged into them by bad govt policy.
Id be tackling that angle – allow the same tax benefits to low risk behaviour. Current policy setting are insane.
lefty e, they support getting back into power, for their own and their mates benefit. That’s all.
The problem is lefty e, that it is the well advised that were causing the rush on funds by withdrawing cash and threatening the financial well being of others. Once confidence is restored the freeze will come off.
Didn’t the Australian Office of Financial Management buy billions of mortgage backed securities in Sept? Oh yeah thats right, Julie Bishop knew all about it.
http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=1667
So after the Govt. pouring $8 billion into this sector, Malcolm decides to pull his cash out, to invest in Hong Kong.
When will people realise that it was the Turnbull’s of this world that caused the mortgage funds to freeze deposits?
No 604
HSO, do you have a link? I remember hearing about this on Insiders. But certainly if the details of private conversations between Bush and the PM have been made public, it would be a serious embarrassment for the PM, not to mention a breach of trust.
No 606
What Opposition does not want to be in power? Honestly HSO, please think before you speak.
What Opposition does not want to be in power?
The current Federal Opposition by the way they are behaving.
No 611
They are behaving responsibly.
Yeah, the polls really are reflecting that aren’t they?
No 613
The polls are mostly meaningless this far out from an election.
He obviously leaked it himself. Made him look like a legend.
But the trend away from the Liberal Party is encouraging.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/10/29/pollytrack-october/
No 615
Maybe he’s a legend to you, but to any foreign leader or diplomat, Rudd would look like a total imbecile, incapable of holding private meetings in confidence.
GP
Does a private conversation between our PM and an imbecile count?
You haven’t read the article so you have absolutely no idea what you’re commenting on.
No 618
lol. Good point.
Ron,
Spot on with your analysis.
On Saturday on the previous thread I gave my ratings of the leaders’ performance during the crisis: Rudd “ok, no better, no worse” and Turnbull “poor”. Sounds like you’re not a million miles away from there, either.
Good to see you back.
Because that would have been talking the economy down, stupid!
And we wouldn’t want to do thatm, would we?
Far better to just vote unconditionally for the government’s measures and then white-ant them from then on, culminating in a total condemnation a few days later. When an interviewer asks, “Why did you vote for them?” just tell them, “No, no, no, Kerry… you don’t understand!”
Everyone except Malcolm Turnbull, Rainmaker to the self-funded retirees is a fool. And Mal’s gonna remind us of that every time he gets the opportunity.
dateline special on SBS now on
quite good coverage of ground level politics
Generic Person @ 609. The original report was as I said in Saturday’s OO. The reports of the other people I mentioned you could find by trawling the archives of the papers .
@ 606. What do you take me for? And don’t answer that for you clearly take me for a fool. You seem to have difficulty with understanding that some of the population are able to discriminate between party’s that are in it for themselves and party’s that work for the wider benefit of the whole country. You clearly belong to the former, and your party’s current standing in the polls reflect what the rest of us think of you.
This thread is moving too fast for these tired brain cells: 621 in response to 599.
Obviously the Bush-Rudd convo was leaked at the US end in cahoots with the Murdoch press and/or the Liberals (not that there’s much difference), as a clumsy atempt to make Rudd look bad. Michelle Grattan said as much on the ABC this morning.
No 624
Unless Michelle can substantiate that claim, she should get a new prescription.
Adam, ouch! GP, finally the story makes a little sense.
I’ll take Michelle Grattan’s word over the Liberal stooges of the Murdoch press every day of the week.
Another question for the pollbludgers, if any one knows. Why is Malcolm making decisions about his own money? Isn’t there a conflict of interest here?
No 628
It’s his money, he can do what he likes with it so long as his interests are declared.
Adam in Canberra @ 625. Can you tell me why you think that it was the US end that leaked?
They were the only people in the room with an interest in doing so.
As for “substantiating her claim,” she doesn’t have to. Journalists report what they know, and they don’t disclose their sources. Whether you believe them or not depends on your opinion of their professional skill and veracity, based on their record over time. Grattan has a higher reputation, established over a longer period of time, than anyone else in Australian journalism with the possible exception of Laurie Oakes.
No 627
Of course you would Adam, but the fact is that she hasn’t substantiated her counterargument, so it has no credibility.
Ron 602
I agree with most of that as a fair summary. I also agree that many people have been encouraged by successive governments to invest in these sort of funds, and the sector has been under-regulated (unlike banks) after Howard post the HIH collapse only placed a code of self regulation on the industry. That was a cop-out. For some real ideology see:
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/1123/PDF/report.pdf
However I disagree on assisting the managed funds. Choosing a higher risk for higher yield IS a reason not to get a government guarantee. Besides, people don’t really want a government guarantee on their value – there is no risk they will become insolvent. Instead people just want to get their money out now. It isn’t the government’s job to bail them out in that way.
The fact is these funds are not absolutely at call and are not absolutely guaranteed. It is no fairer to taxpayers to guarantee all of them than it would be to guarantee equity funds. The money is not lost, but it will take time for people to access it. As others have said, some of the freezes predated the bank guarantees anyway.
This is not meant to be ideology, but I don’t see any quick, painless way out for these funds. Your solutions amount to the government handing money over to them, not just giving a guarantee. That money is going to be needed for other things now as the economy slows. The solution is waiting for stability to return to markets. In the mean time, I agree that assistance (non-means tested) should be given to people with money in them.
WOW! You got him there G.P., you can’t prove a universal negative!
Surely you’ll be awarded the Fields Medal forthwith.
I don’t see why Rudd or his office would leak private conversations with world leaders when by doing so it makes Rudd look bad in so many ways, not least in the eyes of other world leaders. It just doesn’t ring true.
Clearly, Generic Person @ 630, you have no difficulty with separating out your own interests when you are a member of parliament and decisions about same, from decisions about the country’s best interests, i.e., they are the same. No wonder your party is in such a parlous state.
Thanks, Adam in Canberra. Makes sense.
Neither has the “Rudd’s office leaked it” claim.
If you only have
oops
If you only have 10 minutes a day for politics, listen to Michelle Gratten with Fran Kelly on RN at 7.30am. That’s all you need to know.
No 636
Oh please HSO. Your argument is meaningless innuendo, as is Michelle Grattan’s.
Gary Bruce @ 646. That was another thing that had me suspicious from the initial report in the OO. It’s quite weird that the Rovian tactics are being employed here so much. Why?
GP,Just for the sake of entertainment remind me again what the Liberal Party talking points had to say about the Rudd phone call to George Bush. I do believe it was a theory about the leak being at this end.
Bush spoke into the correct end at all times.
Obviously you don’t know anything about how real journalists work, GP. Your mates in the Murdoch slime-factory can just make stuff up, but real journalists who work for real newspapers like the Age actually have, you know, sources, to whom they actually, you know, talk. Grattan doesn’t deal in “innuendo” – that’s your field. If she says something is the case, you can bet that someone very well placed has told her so.
[It’s quite weird that the Rovian tactics are being employed here so much. Why?}
Harry, just have a look at the current MSM share prices and their profit figures for the last financial year and an awful lot is explained.
In 11.5 years, Howard poured $2b into sustaining the Libs in office. The tap has been turned off and they are desperate for the gravy train to get back on the rails again and continue the feeding of enormous amounts of public money back into their coffers again.
Adam, the Age is a substandard Newspaper.
As compared to?
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