The Australian reports that this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45 last time. However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points to 59 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is down one point to 25 per cent. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 61-39 in its weekly survey, which is Labor’s second successive two point increase. Also included are questions on leadership approval and attitudes to the financial crisis.
UPDATE: Graphic here. An interesting set of figures: despite going backwards on two-party, Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 44 per cent, the Greens having returned to earth from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are well up: satisfaction up nine to 65 per cent and dissatisfaction down six to 26 per cent, his best figures since May and June respectively. He’s also taken a commanding lead over Turnbull as best leader to handle the economy, up nine since September 19-21 to 50 per cent with Turnbull down eight to 35 per cent. Also included are questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme, which over half now believe should be at least delayed.
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When Turnbull’s Preferred PM rating is not even matching the coalition, or even the Liberal primary vote, it means he is not even gaining the support of the Liberal base – let alone any swing or minor party voters.
That’s not a good result for a party leader regardless of the situation.
You can attempt to sugar coat it all you want GP, or maybe you even believe it. The Liberals are consigned to a decade in opposition.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll28oct.pdf
WOW, check out Rudd’s satisfaction/dissatisfaction rating! Amazing! It hasn’t been that good for many polls!
Also check out the ‘who is best to handle the economy’…
Rudd goes from 41% to 50%
Turnbull falls from 43% to 35%
Ahh, the merchant of venice is being beaten at his own game. Quite the amusement.
In case you haven’t worked it out by now: when you have a comment in moderation, the comment appears on your screen along with the notice that the comment is awaiting moderation. This comment isn’t there for everybody else, which means subsequent comments are numbered one higher as you see them.
Both of these polls show Rudd’s personal ratings continuing to increase markedly right across the board, so there can be no doubt at all that he is wining with the electorate and they have already developed increased confidence in him.
Turnbull it seems has gotten everyone scratching their heads and not knowing what to make of him. He has hardly changed, has lots of undecideds. They certainly don’t want him as PM or financial manager. I think people don’t understand what he is on about or what point he is trying to make since he changes his position so much. However it appears that more people are going to jump to Rudd and Labor.
From memory when we have had polls where Rudd’s personal ratings had improved but not the TPP the next polls showed an increase in the TPP. As though we are watching people half way through jumping over.
The last batch of polls has showed Rudd increasing his personal standing even when already high. Surely this will be followed by a few point jump in the polls shortly.
I also get the feeling that Turnbull’s behavior is getting close to the line of revealing his true character. The sinister slippery side may rise to the surface occasionally and the negative attacks whilst they might get a few points off Rudd eventually may also critically stain himself. No wonder the OO and others media are doing their hardest to help Turnbull, he would have no hope otherwise.
I reckon without all this latest B/S from Turnbull and his media remoras the ALP may have picked a few more points.
Labor just needs to refer to Turnbull’s behavior as sinister or slippery barrister stuff just to put the idea into people’s heads then they can observe Turnbull.
Offtopic levity
For fans of Clarke & Dawe, here is Brian Dawe back in his pop star days
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=qk_zIxcP_7o
Further offtopicness: Frank + other Westralians, if you’re interested in meeting / bothering / shouting at Allanah MacTiernan, she’s at Oak Lawn, UWA, 1pm. Meet ‘n’ greet thing, put on by UWA Young Labor. I aim to stand out by (a) having voted for her in her own seat, and (b) the shirt. Meet me, you’ll understand.
A propos of the past few weeks, it looks like the people have got it right. they understand that Rudd/Swann have mostly got it right, if not always at the first go, and if not always in the detail. But, Rudd/Swan have mostly got the big picture right, which is all about confidence. Turnbull/Bishop have mostly got it wrong, often at the first go, because they don’t get the confidence bit, or their role in supporting public confidence. Quite the opposite, in fact. Turnbull has missed a huge opportunity to look like he gets the basic fact of economic management right now which is building confidence, not white-anting it. Anyway, grumpily:
Question: ‘What is the difference between Rudd and Turnbull?’
Answer: ‘Rudd is a control freak and Turnbull is an out-of-control freak.’
LeftyE
the Greens being part of a coalition government is scarcely new, so how can it be seen as a great step forward? Tasmania has seen at least two Green coalition governments, firstly with Labor and then with the Liberals.
Working from memory (too lazy this morning to google), both were seen as failures, with both of the majors subsequently declaring they wouldn’t work with the Greens again.
I glanced at the Australian’s front page on-line: there is very little publicity being given to this poll. I wonder why? You’d think Shanahan would be trumpeting a fall of 1 point in 2PP… “thin end of the wedge” and all that. I wonder how all this will play in their “the Rudd government is a ‘oncer’” and “Turnbull plays for keeps” hymn books?
The hapless comment that Shaun Carney made in his Saturday article that the Turnbull, the political brawler and “take no prisoners” bare-knuckle street fighter, inflicts a lot of damage on himself, but doesn’t care as long as he inflicts more on his opponent seems kind of quaint in the light of today’s poll. We’ve seen the damage he’s inflicted on himself… still waiting to see the other half of the equation.
Off-Topic: Blu Ray v. Standard Definition DVD
Although I reserve final judgement, as I have not seen the extent and nature of the films in Generic Person’s library, I express a cautious agreement with him that Blu Ray is a superior entertainment medium to standard definition DVD.
I am shocked to agree with him again that there is no perceptible difference between 1080i and 1080p display devices. The reason I am shocked is that this makes two instances of agreement with GP in one post, on one topic.
So, you can imagine my horror when I find myself agreeing with GP a third time. Marlon Brando’s high-camp performance in Mutiny On The Bounty is a corker.
I must warn Bludgers that on a small screen (i.e. anything less than about 100cm diagonal), it is difficult for the non-aficianado to see the quality difference between Blu Ray (or the now defunct HD-DVD) and a good quality Standard Definition DVD. However, using a 1920 x 1080 pixel projector on a 3200 x 1350mm Cinemascope screen (with an anamorphic projection lens added to the system to widen the image to its full 2.40:1 ’scope aspect), viewed from about 4 metres away – as I do – is a truly stunning, totally cinematic experience. The image reveals more and more detail; detail which is completely missing on Standard Definition DVD. 1920 x 1080 resolution is very close to the standard adopted for commercial digital projection (2048 x 1080) in cinemas.
Unfortunately, the selection of classics available on Blu Ray is limited. It will probably take a couple of years for the studios to get up to speed on their back catalog. However, a well-transferred 4:3 aspect B&W “classic” works pretty well with the projection system described above (without the ’scope lens being used, of course). Certainly much better than just watching these movies on a TV screen. The reason is that 4:3 films use the complete available resolution of Standard Definition, whilst – counter-intuitively, perhaps (to use La Stupenda’s favourite word) – 16:9 and 2.40:1 widescreen films fall significantly short of that utilisation.
At last a comment from Shanahan:
You can almost see the tears rolling down his face. Dennis thought he had Kevin on the ropes with his stupid story about who said what to whom and when.
Oh well, back to those little pieces of paper and the Ouiji board, Dennis.
news.com.au is running their story on the polls under the headline:
‘Generation turing cold on environment’
As far as I can see there is no other coverage of the poll on the main page.
The bad news from this Newspoll is the poor timing of the stunt that the Oz and Liberal Party tried to pull on the Australian people. With the last interest rate cut yet to flow fully through and another large interest rate cut certain next month it has got to be the worst time of the century to be running around actively talking down the Australian economy by the Opposition. Their argument on extending the guarantee has been contemptible.
With the Christmas silly season fast approaching there is now little hope of the Opposition making any traction until well into next year.
From memory I think that Possum’s work on the effects of interest rate cuts is highest for the Government six weeks after they are announced so there is plenty of pain still to come for Turnbull and the Liberals.
As ruawake pointed out on the night of the one percent interest rate cut, interest rates are lower now than when Howard gained office and also when he left office.
There is no doubt after the past week in politics that the Liberals are the best economic scavengers, picking their way recklessly, like demented hyenas, through the entrails of the financially moribund such as the self managed funds, in the hope of finding some indigestible viscera for themselves and their supporters to gnaw on.
Standards will always be lower under the Liberals.
Now, trying to be as fair as I can here, this is a serious dilemma for an opposition, any opposition. If they attack the government’s handling of the economy in a crisis, they will be accused of undermining confidence, talking down the economy, etc etc, as indeed the Libs are now being accused. But if they do nothing, if they support the government, will they get credit for putting the public good before party self-interest? Of course not. They’ll be ignored, or else derided as weak and having no policies. The duty of an opposition is to oppose, and they must do this in the knowledge that against a popular first-term government, they will get knocked down a lot before they can hope to land any blows. But they have no choice. Let’s ask ourselves, What Would Kevin Do? If the boot was on the other foot, would he patriotically abstain from attacking PM Turnbull’s handling of the GFC? Of course not, he’d go in boots and all, using any populist stick he could find. And if perchance he didn’t, he’d be rolled in favour of someone who would. Opposition Leader is inherently a position of weakness. The only way to survive in it is to attack. That’s what Turnbull is doing, because he has no choice. Since his attacks lack credibility, and are not cutting through, he’ll probably go down in flames. But if he doesn’t attack he’ll go down anyway.
You are of course right Adam, but just for once I am enjoying basking in moral superiority…..
Don’t get me wrong Adam, I actually enjoy watching a Liberal Party frothing at the mouth, running around in circles, offering bi partisan support one day, trying to kick the economy to death the next.
Outside of gaining themselves a reputation of carping, destructive whingers I am not sure that politically it can achieve much except perhaps poor poll results.
Adam 165
I agree – that is exactly why I said in my post 41 that I wouldn’t be too upset about the 1% drop in 2PP if I was Labor. Turnbull is playing a risky game and if Rudd keeps reminding people every time Turnbull says something alarmist, he has a lot to lose.
Also, there are still the benefits of the stimulus package measures to kick in yet. Polls will improve in November and December as that happens when the pensioners get their payment.
Interesting theory Adam, and for the most part I agree with you. However, if we compare Opposition behaviour in 2007 and in 2008 (though obviously last year was an election year, and so qualitatively different in terms of the zeitgeist), perhaps a different story emerges. One of my abiding memories of last year was KR’s refusal to engage on the wedge issues (eg the Intervention, Haneef etc). Rudd would merely support the government in theory and then wait for the issue to blow up in Howard’s face. This year, however, the Oppostion has taken a scatter-gun approach, critisising everything the government does, in the hope that something sticks.
IMHO, I don’t think such tactics work too well out there in Voter-land, as the two polls from recent days attest. People don’t like a whinging Opposition, and as such, an Opposition needs to choose its fights carefully.
My view is that the Liberal Party is behaving a bit like the ALP (and the Left generally) in the late 90s. People like us just couldn’t believe that anyone could vote for Howard, so we made excuses for it (eg ‘96 was all about Keating, ‘98 Bomber won the popular vote, ‘01 all about Tampa etc). It took a long time for the engaged Left to appreciate that the average swinging voter didn’t actually hate Howard like we did, and that our constant carping was actually a bit of turn-off for these people. And so it is with Rudd. The Libs have this idea that he is a “phoney”, and if they can just make the public understand that, then they will be back in government and all will be well. Thing is that people don’t like to be told that “they got it wrong”, and as such the ALP will be miles ahead (all other things being equal) until well into their second term.
I agree with some of what you’re saying Hugo. It’s funny that people who were so willing to call anyone who criticised Howard ‘Howard Haters’ are now diong the same thing with Rudd. ‘Rudd Haters’ of course doesn’t have the added joy of alliteration.
The Greens have never been part of any formal coalition. For the first time in history they are in a position to take ministerial portfolios and have been offered them. I believe that is the “great step forward”.
So remember how I said yesterday that the drop in the 2PP could mean that Labor’s primary vote was up and the Greens primary vote was down back to 9? Win.
Rudd Riders? Rudd Wreckers? Repelled by Rudd? Kevin Critics? Agreed, Itep, none of them have the smooth cadence of “Howard Haters”.
Konstant Karping Kritics and Kastigators of Kevin, or K5s for short.
The media, especially the ABC/News Ltd, have given Turnball such a free kick over the last fortnight! And yet the public aren’t buying the idea that Rudd/Swan can’t handle the economy? It goes to show how out of touch the MSM are, again!
lol Adam
And the ABC are doing their best to give John McCain favourable coverage – WTF?
It’s called balance, evan14. Balance.
Your ABC. Fair and balanced.
They report, you decide.
It appears Mr Downer personally didn’t want Haneef’s visa to be cancelled at the time of the events, instead it was his view that:
“If the court refused to allow more deadtime on Friday, Mr Downer’s strong preference was that there be a couple of days’ grace, during which it was to be hoped that Haneef himself would see the writing on the wall and leave Australia voluntarily.”
How charming. In other words, he was hoping he’d realise he wasn’t wanted here and to go back to where he comes from.
Agree with ltep on Downer, though I don’t think he was the principal agent in the Haneef case. I’d still like to hear what was Kevin Andrew’s role. I think he still has a lot of explaining left to do.
Is that a bug or a feature?
http://news.smh.com.au/national/govt-wont-meet-funds-commitment-murray-20081028-5a1t.html
The chairman of the Future Fund says that there’s no way in the current cycle the Government is going to be having the kinds of surplus’ we’ve had in the past. I agree. That brings up the fact that it was positive economic circumstances that created the surplus’ not any magical financial wizardry on the part of Peter Costello.
How sad for this country that tens of billions of dollars of surplus were wasted instead of being invested in infrastructure. And now there’s a government that wants to invest they’re hamstrung by this economic collapse. Arghhhh.
In the software world, a bug is just an undocumented feature
In an every accelerating rush to toady to the rich and powerful the ABC have now handed over the soapbox of the once illustrious Boyer Lectures to a geriatric US businessman, the Dirty Digger.
What with their spinelessness on criticism of programs like the Religion Report it seems that ABC management have given up attempting to be innovative and cutting edge. All we are going to get is a regurgitation of News Ltd AGMs but without the dissenting voice of Stephen Mayne.
Shame ABC Shame.
Why PR sucks, episode 989347
http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/israelis-wonder-if-livni-is-the-answer/2008/10/27/1224955950058.html
PR is not the problem. Pathetic parties and a 2% threshold are the problem.
“BOOK editor Peter van Onselen says he was “disgusted and embarrassed” to learn that the deputy Liberal leader, Julie Bishop, had not written the essay which appeared in his book under her name.”
I’d be pretty embarrassed as well (to have even bothered editing such a book)!
“Dr van Onselen said he was confident that her article was the only plagiarism in the book, although he said Brendan Nelson, who was Opposition leader at the time, may have had help from a staffer in preparing his article for the book. Dr Nelson could not be reached for comment yesterday.”
Read: He didn’t write his article either
“The other MP contributors to the book, Liberals And Power – The Road Ahead, were Tony Abbott, George Brandis, Michael Keenan and Brett Mason”
Well I can tell this will be a gripping page turner! Can’t miss that one…
Ltep – you’ve probably read the book already under the names of other authors.
Yes Steve, Brandis’ contribution will begin ‘I’m George, I’m from Queensland and I’m here to help’.
or given his Lateline performance last week,”I’m George, I’m from Queensland and I’m here to talk down the Australian economy.”
And talk over everyone else.
I actually think the ABC reportage is among the worst, and lazy as well. This morning I heard a reporter say “the freezing of funds CAUSED BY the government bank gurantee”.
Hey, you ABC slacktards: check this list before opening yer traps. http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2008/08/28-0958-6879.html
More than half of these froze BEFORE the government gurantee was issued. How do you CAUSE something that happened beforehand? Hmmmm??
example: “Macquarie Group: froze redemptions on its $1 billion Direct Property Fund and Direct Wholesale Property Fund on August 25.”
The govt issued its banking gurantee on October 12.
What is it the media doesnt get about time, space and causality?
And as for Malcolm, well, you be the judge. Talking it all down for partisan gain? He must be aware the funds were freezing beforehand.
ltep @ 188
Where did you get the quote about Nelson getting some help? I can’t see it in the original article.
In comments I asked Onselen if he had confirmation that all the others wrote their own bit but he didn’t reply (did post the comment though so credit to him for that)
lefty e perhaps the funds could do what Peter Martin suggests and begin advertising. (Language warning.)
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/10/perhaps-funds-should-ramp-up-their.html
Oh, Ok cancel that request ltep, I found it at SMH
steve @ 195
rofl, thanks for that clip – very funny
Posts 150-200 have provided the biggest entertainment on poll bludger for a while. The Liberals really are screwed aren’t they…
Oz 183
Your comments on the soon to dissappear surplus are no doubt sadly true. ABC reported version is here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/28/2403163.htm
Funny isn’t it – I thought the surplus was due to the Howard government’s good economic management and introduction of Workchoices?
While I don’t doubt Muray’s comments on the surplus, I found his other comments on the government buying a stake in the property funds hard to swallow. Two questions: 1. why? They are at risk investments and he as a former bank CEO shoudl know that.
2. if we did that, and already face having no surplus, what do we then use to restart the economy with? Silly idea.
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