The Australian reports that this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45 last time. However, Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up five points to 59 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is down one point to 25 per cent. Essential Research has Labor’s lead up from 59-41 to 61-39 in its weekly survey, which is Labor’s second successive two point increase. Also included are questions on leadership approval and attitudes to the financial crisis.
UPDATE: Graphic here. An interesting set of figures: despite going backwards on two-party, Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 44 per cent, the Greens having returned to earth from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are well up: satisfaction up nine to 65 per cent and dissatisfaction down six to 26 per cent, his best figures since May and June respectively. He’s also taken a commanding lead over Turnbull as best leader to handle the economy, up nine since September 19-21 to 50 per cent with Turnbull down eight to 35 per cent. Also included are questions on the carbon pollution reduction scheme, which over half now believe should be at least delayed.
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I’m not surprised by these poll numbers for the past two weeks have been Interesting.
Both sides have made clear mistakes, I think the voters are starting to turn off! which is bad news for Turnbull, the reason why I think they are turning off is they mostly understand that the situation is a flow on from a global downturn and while people are concerned in general they are pleased with the Governments $10.4B package and the cuts in Interest Rates.
Sure there have been some job loses but as we know that is a common thing and in reality Unemployment hasn’t risen in an out of control fashion, generally the correction in property prices would be seen as a good thing and while people would be concerned by the falling value of Superfund’s and the share market they fully know that this is due to the global economy.
I would imagine within most financial companies some sort of brief has been provided to employees regarding the companies position both in the short term and long term.
While the job market has tightened there are still jobs out there the point being the majorly have some understanding the state of the economy, the Government has done several very good things while the opposition have for the most part focused on who said what to whom and when.
I think it was Hugo who said it reminded him of the ALP in the late 90s and that is a very good way of putting it for the Liberal Party may well be making great points that go down really well in North Sydney and Kooyong but to the voters of Mortgage land to quote Clark Garbo “Quite frankly my dear I don’t give a damn.
These voters look at the cut in Interest rates and the handouts and think their money is safe in the bank therefore life is still good. sure the Rudd Government has made several mistakes this week that have hurt it but at this stage the only people taking note of those are what we would call Liberal Voters a bit like during the 90s the ALP voters would go red in the face over something which to most was nothing.
If an election was held now I would expect the ALP to be returned but I seriously dealt there would be a landslide, in fact the ALP might lose a few seats.
54-46 is a 1% swing to the ALP.
No Future: Credit crisis killing infrastructure plans – http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/28/2403163.htm
Thankyou very much Howard. The boom years, wasted.
There was a remarkably good economic result (5% GSP growth!) reported for Qld today:
http://news.smh.com.au/national/queensland-economy-grows-at-51-per-cent-20081028-5a5l.html
When does Anna Bligh have to go to an election? She must be desperately hoping this holds up till after then. It won’t of course, but even if the Qld growth rate halved it would still be respectable. I suspect that result will be close.
bob
Yes they were. A lot of financiers driving around in foreign cars and yuppies in McMansions will be the principal Howard legacy.
Call em biased as an engineer but the frustrating thing now is that, even if more serious money is put into “nation building” type infrastructure projects, most of the really substantial ones take several years to get going. it isn’t just red tape: for example if you have to resume land for a new rail line, people have statutory rights of appeal. Similarly with environmental studies: many are needed to establish safe design criteria for the projects. So even with swift action, 2009 could be a fairly lean year.
I don’t know what’s so bad in QLD that warrants replacing the Government with Springborg.
Socrates the next Queensland election is due by September next year. This week will be interesting too as state parliament is meeting in Cairns for three days beginning today.
I’m not sure if Question time will be delayed because of the regional parliament but there is usually a series of gaffes by the Liberal National Party that make hansard a quirky read. I’ve got this week off work so if the Liberal National Party do anything usual, I’ll share the stupidity far and wide.
Oz
I don’t have a strong opinion on Bligh; I was just observing that recent opinion polls have been closer. If the economy tightens as well that would make the election tight. Of course, the pinneapple party leadership saga will still help Bligh enormously when the crunch comes.
The Liberal National Party always poll well when they are in hiding and with absolutely no policies. One they come out in public with a policy or two in tow things go pear shaped very quickly.
David Murray was one of the reasons we switched banks from Commonwealth to ANZ, When he was head of Commonwealth Bank he was Howards most strident supporter. Every election he’d be there with the Rodent singing his praises.
So I personally wouldn’t take much notice of anything he had to say
vera @ 209, I assume you’re replying to:
“No Future: Credit crisis killing infrastructure plans – http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/28/2403163.htm
Thankyou very much Howard. The boom years, wasted.”
Regardless of who says it, it is true. The crunch is here, locally and globally money is not being splashed around like candy anymore, the time to invest in nationbuilding during the boom years has come and gone.
That is Howard’s legacy. The wasted years and WorkChoices.
Vera
No I think Murray is talking rubbish about extending the guarantee. But I fear he may be right about the surplus.
I agree the surplus is stuffed, just saying I wouldn’t want Rudd taking advice from this bloke.
Why would Murray even be commenting on extending the guarantee?
Looking at those Newspoll figures I’m struggling to find any proof to support GP’s comment that Malcolm is holding his own. Or was he referring to something else?
Probably because a journalist was looking for a quote
“the surplus is stuffed”.
How succinct.
Has anyone been able to find an economist yet that believes the Federal government has taken the wrong path in all of this financial mess?
John Stone probably does. What has Terry McCrann had to say? What has John Hewson had to say?
GB
If your question sought a qualified, independant economist I think the answer is no – they all agreed the bank guarantee was necessary, same with the drop in interest rates, same with the fiscal stimulus. There was some debate on the way the first home buyer bonus was handled (could have led to inflation) but overall no – I am not aware of any credible Australian economic analysts who dissented. I’m still not.
re “the surplus is stuffed”.
The Govt can and will go into deficit OR use its AAA credit rating to borrow to spend on infrastructure etc, which in turn will help kick the economy along.
Nothing wrong with that – over the cycle.
They have also said they will dip into the future fund if need be as well. Bear in mind the future fund was a con anyway. tip and co just didn’t have a clue where to spend it anyway despite the crying need for nation wide infrastructure spend.
BTW the future fund was and is a con is because it was supposedly set up to meet unfunded public service pension liabilities – the baby boomer generation in the main.
Some years ago – 5 years or so ?? the commonwealth adopted accrual accounting with provision is set aside on a yearly basis to met such liabilities.
With the progressive retirement of the boomers in coming years and as they progressively fall off their perches the liability with also run off. OK these people are in retirement and still need to be paid pensions etc, but the liability does run off.
The need for the fund was always overstated, although was probably a good idea from the viewpoint that rodent would spent it on election bribes as he did with the bulk of the windfall from the minerals boom.
Saul Estlake from ANZ calculated that the rodent years saw about $309 B of $310 B from the minerals boom in giveaways basically wasted and with nothing in the way of nation building to show for it.
A epitaph of the rodent years if there ever was one.
That being said, here is some more sobering news on the underlying problem in financial markets (outside Australia): banks (and others) still haven’t come clean on who owes what to whom, and how many bad debts they hold:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c241b54-a380-11dd-942c-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
This is why banks are reluctant to lend to each other now – they don’t know who is a bad credit risk. This is also why the government should NOT be issueing guarantees to anyone but savings banks that are an essential part of the day to day economy.
Adam count McCrann out.
GB @ 214 The Newspoll figures for the Australian Labor Party are very good at the moment, and not so good (without being disastrous) for the other side of politics. It is a little early yet to say whether or not Malcolm is ‘holding his own’ but the Liberals to be competitive (even at this relatively early stage of the electoral cycle) probably need a Coalition primary vote above 40% so I guess it’s fair to say the Opposition Leader and the Coalition parties should be concerned about the relatively low level of voter support for them and understand (if they do not already) that they have plenty of work to do.
A crucial time to assess how each side is travelling as the momentum gathers for the next Federal election, will be around the conclusion of the financial year ending 30 June 2009 (that is, after the next Federal budget has been announced and also after some months have passed so we can see evidence of the extent to which the GFC has affected the Australian economy, particularly levels of unemployment).
A very weird ending to that article, he claims to know a solution in the last three paragraphs but doesn’t get to tell us what it is.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24561145-36281,00.html
Hang on, his solution is for the funds to get access to liquidity. If only the whole world financial system would take Terry’s advice we would have solved the problem. What a genius.
I hope the Herald Sun isn’t stupid enough to actually add to his liquidity by paying him to write this simplistic dribble.
Is Alan Wood still economics editor of the Australian? What has he been saying?
I’d be very interested to know Hewson’s view. I’m sure the media will have been after him – if he hasn’t said anything he must be lying low so he doesn’t have to criticise Turnbull.
Sky Nooze main story…. by David Spears in USA
“Obama campaign looking at Kevin Rudds emphatic victory for inspiration”
lefty e @ 194 -
I actually think the ABC reportage is among the worst, and lazy as well. This morning I heard a reporter say “the freezing of funds CAUSED BY the government bank gurantee”.
IMO, it’s a bit hard to be critical of the ABC when the Government, particularly Swan, seem to be accepting the total blame for the frozen funds as an unintended consequence of the bank guarantees too. Buggered if I know why. There’s been enough information posted here in the last day or two demonstrating that while the guarantees undoubtedly haven’t helped matters (with more than a little help from the Opposition’s hysterics) they weren’t thecause. You’d think Swan et al would be even more aware of the true state of play than us.
An explanation of why extending the guarantee to the mortgage funds is not a smart thing to do wouldn’t hurt either.
They may be doing all the right things in financial terms, but I am starting to despair of the Government’s handling of the politics.
Swan will need to be very careful what he says about mortgage trusts and why government wont guarantee them, otherwise he risks having people think they are too risky to guarantee. I’m not sure if he would want to say there was a run on them prior to the guarantee as that will get people thinking that there IS a problem with these things. So best thing for him to say is not much.
TP
Its a pity allbull didn’t take your advice. He has gone out of his way to talk up problems.
Not a good look for someone who is soo desperate to be PM.
MF
Well they should explain five things about the bank guarantees:
1. there was no choice on the bank guarantees – action had to be taken, and it was a policy implemented globally
2. the bank guarantees have worked – our banks are OK and our econmy is still moving
3. investment funds are not bank accounts – and some were frozen before this anyway
4. people with money in frozen funds haven’t lost their cash – it is still there earning dividends. They will just have to wait, and they can get assistance in the mean time.
5. extending the guarantee to investment funds would be too messy (do share funds get it?), too expensive, and there was never any suggestion that they were government guaranteed in the first place.
Simple. Even Shanahan could understand it.
223 – A fair assessment David. I agree.
Permission granted to messrs Rudd and Swan to use a modified vesion of 232 to reassure the nervous nellies.
The only jurno yet to ask allbull what his detailed policy is on the G/- and related matters is red kerry.
Allbull was asked repeatedly but refused to answer the questions.
Why have no other jurnos even raised the matter. Is this not more than a fair question when allbull is talking up economic disaster for the nation.
These were questions repeatedly asked of labor in opposition.
Adam there is a 2UE radio interview with John Hewson here from Sunday 26/10/08. He wants bipartisanship, and agreement on detail as to how to handle the GFC.
RBA, Treasury Govt, Opposition all locked in room till agreement reached..All about confidence. On about falls in Superannuation. Wants stability as soon as possible.
http://www.2ue.com.au/timwebster
Thanks Steve. That’s just a dodge, if he won’t say what he thinks actually ought to be done. Just calling for consensus is not a policy.
As Lord Melbourne said to his Cabinet, “My Lords, Gentlemen, I don’t care a damn what we say, so long as we all say the same thing.”
Steve
Nobody can guarantee stability, or a halt to falls in superannuation. That agreement isn’t going to happen if anyone in the room is sane. Nor is there any obligation to agree with the opposition.
I think Hewson has the experience to pick how much potential there is for damage to the Liberal Party and took the opportunity to mouth what he thought would be soothing words to the faithful.
Why would you look to Hewson for advice? He lost the ‘unloseable election’.
rusty, seems like the old good cop, bad cop game. Turbull out there kicking heads while Hewson is talking consensus and the Opposition inside the tent etc.
Mayo feral – I guess unlike Talcum, Swan isn’t about to come out and say” actually, those funds were already screwed” – since it wouldn’t help
True as it is though.
This post on Shannahan’s blob goes a long way to explaining the flood of negative comments by rwdb Lib supporters on News Ltd and ABC sites.
This part is telling besides the typical criticism of polling procedures which so many of them have been advocating for the past 18 Months.
I wonder just how long it will take before they wake up to the fact that flooding the internet with inane negative commentary doesn’t work. One poster complained that the average joe blow out there either aren’t reading their insightful, informative posts or are just plain dumb.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24562165-17301,00.html
I thought this one was rather good though.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24562165-17301,00.html
Scorpio, what amazes me is how a sample of the population accurately reflects the gist of what the general population is thinking at any given point. Even the Liberals picked this one coming and sent in the clowns on Saturday night and yesterday to try to get a bit of damage control happening here on Poll bludger.
I think this still a pretty good result for Turnbull. At the end of the day, when people are fearful, they cling to the government of the day. We’ve seen it in the past, and we’re seeing it again today. It really doesn’t have a lot to do with Rudd’s alleged stellar economic management, though you wouldn’t know it reading the lefty circle jerk going on above….
I don’t know about the last part of your post GP, but I do know that an awful number of Coalition supporters on other sites are somewhat critical of Turnbull’s strategy over the past two weeks. Not counting the trolls of course who are still posting the same inane comments.
No 240
Exactly.
245 – A lot of disappointment and down right resentment in that comment GP.
So “in times of trouble” if people stick with the government why then would they change government if we’re still in “times of trouble” two years from now?
The question is are you “holding your ground” if your opponent goes ahead of you but you go along at the same pace? I would argue “no”.
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