With less than a week ago to the big day, the polls are showing only a fractional narrowing in Barack Obama’s formidable lead. Such narrowing has been enough to move North Carolina to the John McCain column on my polling aggregates while making Indiana line-ball, but Obama is retaining his tight grip on the rust-belt swing states while increasing his lead in Florida. For some local colour, our good friends at UMR Research have produced another poll on Australian views of the contest. It finds Obama’s lead over McCain among Australians has widened still further in the past month, from 66-13 to 72-9.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.7 | 39.4 | 3005 | 17 | |
| Washington | 54.9 | 40.1 | 3379 | 11 | |
| Maine | 54.5 | 40.0 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 53.6 | 41.3 | 4128 | 10 | |
| Iowa | 52.6 | 41.7 | 3530 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 52.2 | 41.7 | 5505 | 21 | |
| New Hampshire | 51.7 | 41.9 | 3905 | 4 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.5 | 42.1 | 3490 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 50.5 | 43.3 | 2927 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 50.6 | 44.4 | 4541 | 9 | |
| Ohio | 48.6 | 42.8 | 4741 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 50.7 | 45.0 | 4852 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 50.0 | 45.4 | 3418 | 5 | |
| Florida | 48.0 | 45.2 | 5429 | 27 | |
| Missouri | 47.4 | 46.5 | 4050 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.5 | 44.7 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Indiana | 47.1 | 47.0 | 4934 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 47.4 | 48.4 | 5466 | 15 | |
| Montana | 45.0 | 48.9 | 3128 | 3 | |
| Georgia | 45.6 | 50.0 | 3530 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 42.7 | 51.0 | 3622 | 5 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 49.9 | 43.9 | - | 363 | 175 |
478 Comments
Just saw on Sky Noos of a flyer being distributed in various communities saying that due to the unprecedented interest in the upcoming US election, to handle the demand of the number of voters, it will be split over two days. Republican voters please turn up November 4, Democrat voters please turn up November 5.
What a disgrace.
So much for the narrowing. The rusted on Repubs watching Fox would be getting a completely wrong picture of what’s actually going on.
Looks like they could be in for a big shock, come Tuesday.
#1 bob
Like I said in an earlier post, the Repubs (and their supporters) will do or say anything to try and cling to power.
There’s nothing very Christian among that bunch of bible bashers.
I made my liquor run today planning ahead for Wednesday. I came home with a bottle of bubbly, Jacob’s Creek Chardonnay Pinot Noir Brut Cuvee.
I thought champagne was in order rather than a plain old bottle of wine
…..
Obama is also winning the shamen vote.
Darn,
And the Dems won’t and don’t?
Puleeeeeze.
Not much Christian charity amongst Obama supporters on this blog either.
Julie @ 4
One Bottle? C’mon! History in the making, get the kids a babysiter and get a box of bubbly in!
Who’s this Christian Charity person?
An Cu @ 7,
I am a relatively low key person and rarely drink alcohol. Trust me, one bottle of bubbly will be plenty enough for me, enough to get to that feeling good state but still able to deal with my children …..
….. I just need to make sure I’m able to be coherent on the phone, pending my mood I might be making some phone calls back to US relatives but NOT to my deadbeat sister in Missouri. My husband will be in Perth on business so my celebration will be online and over the phone to the US. Reminds me to ask my brother in email what his phone number is 
…..
Greensborough Growler @ 6
Has a pamphlet been distributed telling Dems to vote Nov 4 and Reps to vote Nov 5?
This sort of thing happens every U.S. election.
Why should you expect Christian charity from people who may not be Christians?
The big moves today on Intrade is that Ohio has become much stronger for Obama, while Missouri and Indiana have moved towards McCain. Ohio is now stronger for Obama than Virginia.
I still think Intrade generally just reflects what the polls say.
Cousins to echo chamber betting sites like Intrade are US newspaper endorsements. Kerry narrowly received more endorsements than “W”, but Obama’s kicking proverbial:
“THURSDAY Tally Of Newspaper Endorsements — Obama Maintains Big Lead at 234-105
By Greg Mitchell and Dexter Hill
Published: October 30, 2008 12:25 PM ET Thursday
NEW YORK (Updated Wednesday) We’re in the homestretch! And the Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for daily newspaper endorsements. The Democratic team now leads by 234 to 105, a better than 2-1 margin and an even wider spread in the circulation of those papers — see full tally below as of today. The circulation of the Obama-backing papers stands at over 21 million, compared with McCain’s 7 million.”
Link: http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230
bob,
Is that a segue to talk about ACORN again?
Showson,
My point exactly. Posters ignorantly blathering about something they neither practice nor understand. Apparently, if you know nothing you are in the best position to make judgement on others. It’s the PB disease.
Why should they? Christianity isn’t compulsory. Also, why should I practice things I don’t understand? Why should I practice things I don’t WANT to understand?
Also, where does telling someone to “GET F#$@*D” fit into the whole “Christian Charity” principle?
GG #6
I might be leading with my chin here, but can you provide some examples of Dem dirty tricks that would match the character assassination the Repubs are trying to do on Obama (and did on John Kerry in 2004).
GG #6
Also, I forgot to mention. I do not claim to be a Christian with Christian values. The majority of the hypocritical Republicans pulling these dirty stunts do.
GG
You don’t have to practise something to criticise it, but you do need to understand it. Almost everyone has a good understanding of “Christian values” as they form most of the basis for community values. Most of our fundie Christian friends are probably lovely people but there is a group whose actions would be reviled by JC if he came back. And those are hypocrites and frauds.
Darn,
Joe the Plumber!
The internet hit sqaud on Hillary.
My point is that despite being a non believer, you seem particularly judgemental of those who are, as evidenced by your stereotypical cliches. Doesn’t take much subtlety or intellectual rigour to put individuals or groups in a box.
ShowsOn,
That’s just the shortened version of the Lord saying “Go forth and multiply”.
Diogenes,
You could say the same about any group in our society depending on your perspective and prejudices.
Darn, is saying they are not influenced by Christian values. You say, “Almost everyone has a good understanding of “Christian values” as they form most of the basis for community values”.
Perhaps the answer is a pineapple.
GG
I think the problem is that Christians have a code of behaviour which is pretty all-inclusive and all-pervading. It’s pretty hard for them to meet their own standards all the time. Us godless atheists don’t have a standard to meet so life’s pretty sweet for us, blamewise.
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA! OH thy Lord worketh in mysterious ways!
I can’t remember that bit in Thomas Jefferson’s version of the Bible, which is my preferred edition.
We just have to use regular charity, which is the generic version.
It’s still just as good! It probably comes from the same place – the benefits created by showing compassion to other humans.
jesus taping dancing christ…stfu.
now back to topic
PPP Poll
Colorado (sample of over 2000)
O-54
M-44
senate
Udall (D) 56
Schaffer (R) 41
Dems pulling out the big guns in Floriday, first Bill now Al
Via Mumble, this is a ballot paper in this election.
http://www.jcolomer.blogspot.com/
Virginia = Win: North Carolina = landslide
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/30/15436/389/824/647015
I’m interested to see if Obama’s ‘infomercial’ generates any form of bounce in the tracking polls.
I guess we will only know that when the trackers are released on Sunday U.S. time.
Expat Follower
#964
“I would dearly like to see Ron and the amigos’ predictions – would settle for them identifying who it is they would actually vote for on Tue!”
Expat Follower , I will giv a view
MARGIN: Obama has won th electon with 291 e/v’s guaranteed based on months trends There ar 5 States that ar reely marginal but for diferent reasons , including demographics , querys over th acuracy of likely voters being understated , a Bradley but a higher reverse Bradley will occur also , & some polls sampling is questioned
Obama could just exced 370 e/v’s but only if everything fell his way in those 5 & if my suspicion that likely voters ar underestimated by pollstars by about 1% is correct In particular MO , IN and NC with 37 e/v’s ar all two marginal to definitely call & affect th margin Now to clinb beyond just over 370 needs GA & WV & I nebver thought either would switch from ‘red’ , whilst ND tink is quite unlikely , and 338 th most likeley minimim outcome
ON VOTING: Most Obama supporters on this Site for 4 months hav prety well ‘demanded’ all “left” people must fully support Obama & therefore hav posted abuse & false innuendo against any ‘left’ person who for valid reasons doesn’t do so
Notwithstanding I find US politcs and US political Partys a disappointment & very unlike ‘oz’ So I would not hav supported Jimmy Carter either because he was a grossly imperfect Democrat & ditto Obama both on his character defects and policy deficiencys
As for McCain , well I could not vote for him anyway due to his idealoliogy based especially domestic policys However McCain has many admirable attritubutes & skills Obama lacks and was an able Legislator , but has been a major disappointment in both his campaign judgement & in not remaining th ‘maverick’ he actually is
REASON for Obama’s win Yes I agree with your bailout comments on McCain Well past th 2 convention bounses & about 2 weeks past Palin’s appointment ….ie when voters actualy had to face deciding now that th 2 convention glitz had died out , McCain then on th stat trends was a tie/just in front of Obama for 1.5 weeks before th Bailout on 20/9/08
Bush’s foolish announcement of th $800 billion bailout rather than making it a joint Congress matter meant Republicans “owned” th bailout & its cause and destroyed Republicon brand totally & therefore McCain’s chances (and th strong poll trends reversal immediately & thereafter TO Obama demonstrate that)
Th SMALL chanse for McCain of escaping that odorous “ownership” was destroyed by McCain himself , by his naively returning to Wasdhington to “get it passed” whereas Obama smartly sat pat & let th Pelosi brigade cleverly continue to sticky tape th bailout solely to th Republican brand (& thus also to McCain)
Voters DID want a change from republicans , “its time” was always under there in 2008 , voters did want a Democrat …..but pre Bailout proved lots of swingers were uneasy with Obama meaning if th electon was held THEN pre bailout it would hav been a cliff hanger , and certainley pure speculation whaty would hav been 10 weeeks later on Nov 5 as that’s theoretical dynamics Perhaps th bailout was aussie karma
PREDICTION I expect Obama’s presidency to be a MASSIVE victory of style & oratory over substanase and outcomes especialy in FA
I predict 4 years of hystericol lauding of Obama by th progressive Obamamedia but that may be more a comparative diference to th predessor George Bussh’s corupt , exclusive , illegal & militaristic reign I do expect however broadly better relatoions with th EU & some but not all less developed countries but when one looks at FA specifics then Obama comes up ‘lite’ on detail and generaly typically US first
It is in this sense only I perhaps understand a FA benefit of even an Abama over a further Republicon (whereas a Gore , Hillary or Edwards would hav given us a fair dinkum Kyoto at th minimum (and not Obama’s crummy GED13) , plus also th first 2 Democrats probably achieving a fair result finaly on Palestine)
Kerry states in the bag + Iowa + Colorado + New Mexico + Virginia + Ohio – 286 ECV at 100% probability, imo.
Will add Ohio + Nevada to make it 311 (90%)
Throw in Florida and we’re at 338 (80%)
North Carolina makes it 353 (70%)
Missouri probably just under 50% (364)
Indiana around 40% (375)
North Dakota, West Virginia, Georgia, Montana all around 25% (401)
Who thinks I am off massively anywhere here (maybe a bit pessimistic on Missouri and ff)?
Hey Ron – appreciate your response. I think we’re in agreement on McCain, but I hold out a little more hope for Obama that you… but his ability to withstand the pentup Dem congress agenda in favour of the reasonable stuff (health, tax, energy) will be key? I think he’s got every chance of being as effective as Hilary would have been – she also would be winning this comfortably, and must feel just terrible at her campaign’s shortcomings and the opportunity missed? Mind you, gotta give Obi some credit for winning the nom as well…
So, it sounds like if you had to cast a ballot it would be for Nader or the Green Lady whose name temporarily escapes me (pure guesswork)?
Where to for the republicans? Palin has a niche with 25% of the population but maybe 50+% of what remains of the republican base… how orgasmic would Obi be if thats who he was up against in 2012?! Huckabee a better bet within this segment, perhaps.
I rarely agree with Glen, but the Arnold Vinick type is about the only hope for them next time around… Romney #1 might have been this type, but the flip-flopping he had to do to be competitive for the nomination this time around surely has damaged him.
An Obama – Romney (as Mass govenor) race would have been quite interesting at these times of economic stress… don’t you think?
Incorrect. I for one have simply asked you to define what “core ‘left’ policys” actually means. You constantly fail to do so, so I have absolutely no idea why you think Obama is an unsuitable centre-left candidate.
sorry in #30 above the 100% shouldn’t have double-mentioned Ohio – am suggesting 95% there…
90% there – goddamn the dyslexia is setting in (sorry guys)
Ignoring Ron’s failure to define “core-left” policies, I’m a left-wing person and I’m not as big a fan of Obama as most people here for that exact reason.
I do agree that he’s pretty “liberal” in American terms and enormously better than McCain/Palin but that’s not a particularly high bar.
Please note that this is entirely my own opinion however I am sure that there are several criticisms of Obama coming from the left as well as the right. But we must all be realists in the end.
Shows On, to be fair to Ron, he’s pretty consistently criticised Obama on Kyoto (I’m not au fait enough to pass judgement on whether this is truly important of itself, but it is definitely arguable as an attack from the left?)
On Palestine, this is newer… I suspect this is an argument more around effectiveness than policy diff with Hilary? Not so sure I’d agree… depends on who the real hard-to-budge party here is. The more one believes its the Palestinians, one might think the more likely good ol Hussein could persuade them??
Zogby Obama 50-43
GG
You have to be nice to us evil atheists tonight because tonight is OUR night. Halloween. We promise to be nice to you tomorrow on All Saint’s Day.
Trick or treat?
Expat,
Unfortunately, the Kyoto argument doesn’t pass the smell test. Obama can’t say that he’d ratify anything, as he’d need the support of Congress to get it through, and even if the Dems picked up the filibuster proof majority, there’s enough Southern Dems to see it get caught up in red tape.
It also wouldn’t achieve anything apart from put a larger financial burden on the US. There’s no way they could achieve a reduction on 1990 levels of 7% between 2008 and 2012. Between 1990 and 2006 they had a 15% increase, so over the next 3 years they’d require a reduction of 32% over this year’s levels to meet their targets!
In a recession, they’d be nuts to sign up to Kyoto, and given the financial burden they’d lump themselves with for any future agreements; they’d end up doing massive damage to next year’s Copenhagen talks.
So funny watching the US stations now, trying to beef up the idea that they’re going to be up for a few late nights before the election is decided. Even MSNBC is on board. “McCain is probably going to win Ohio, Florida and Virginia, and when he does, we know we’ll be up all night”.
Well, well, well. What a surprise!! Those poor little Georgians who stood up so very bravely to the big nasty commies from Russia committed a few little “war crimes”. And they managed to do it without the US’s help, which must really hurt McCain’s feelings.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7692751.stm
Fox: “Obama is reportedly already picking the drapes for the Oval Office and has spoken to designers about a custom made desk”. How old is the “choosing the drapes already” call? The sad thing is, they’re serious.
WTF!? Those three states are all leaning Obama, Virginia is leaning so much it has nearly fallen over.
If they said Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina then they would have a point. But they are all in the 2nd tier of states now, Obama called lose those three and still win easily.
injuddstree
The networks big problem is that VA is the equal first to report. 95% sure Obama will win that. 24 polls in a row in front. That means it’s all over in 30 minutes.
A talking head on Fox has a theory. Apparently those people who are saying they are undecided aren’t really undecided at all. They have decided they won’t be voting for Obama, but aren’t telling anyone. :Therefore McCain will probably win.
Makes good sense to me. I think he also said something about the earth really being flat. .
I’m dead serious, a few on the morning show on MSNBC are actually saying that Ohio, Florida and Virginia will all “move red” on election day, and how they will be “up late”. Ive heard them say “tight” about 7 times. Now, I think McCain will hold Florida, but all 3?
Expat Follower
For your benefit as you haven’t been a regular poster , on th last thread I posted about ‘core left’ policys but as I forshadowed at th time , th progressives naturaly didn’t like it because there core priorities ar different …..so they now claim i didn’t explain rather than argue against them as core
I referred to Chifleys ‘lite on th hill’ comments and not just th words but th implicit social sprectrum of what he said and th implicit obligations & priority they involved in Labor principals …AND that universal healthcare & freedom of association as Unionists were examples
Apart from my posts on Kyoto (whereas Gore , Hillary & Edwards do support Kyoto ratification & Obama does not support Kyoyo ratification Whether or not a POTUS then can get Congress to approve it is a red herring , Obama HIMSELF does NOT support ratifying Kyoto …so its a copeout for his Obama supporters to use congrssas an excuse for his lack of belief & conviction of Kyoto (Obama is guaranteeing th Chinese & Indians who DID ratify Kyoto pull out of Kyoto ..where does that leave CC)
I’ve also made over 100 posts mentioning Obama does not hav a universal healthcare policy (whereas Edwards & Hillary did) …and one can not get much more “core left” than th health of th planet and th health of your sick kids when you’ve poor & got no money to get them badly needed medical
I’ve also mentioned numerously that Edwards , Hillary etc support a Keynes big governenmt strong direct Govt regulaton & non unfettered free market Again core left Whilst Obama supports a free market economic rationist model thats behavourably nuanced on regulation & market competition etc
Then there ar other domestic policys including taxes and capital gains taxes on homes
If one wants to go to social issues : Obama supports death death even if no murder was involved (NO) , does NOT suport public funding of elections (NO) Obama is first Democrat or Republican to do so since 1972 , supports no medical assistance for viable babys born from an abortion (NO) , supports consevative Supreme court for Exxon over th Valdex Alaskan environmetnal oil spill eco disastor (NO) , supports consevative Supreme court OVERTURNING an existing Washington City Law banning hand guns (NO) & against th minority ‘left’ Judges , supports expanded Bush social spending on religious based Organizations which breachs separation of State & Church (NO) , now supports part offshore oil drilling in protected waters (NO)
But universal healthcare , Big govenment involvement economics and CC will do anyway as Obama not having ‘core left’ policys , unlike John Edwards
HAHAHAHA. Cindy and Meaghan McCain are on Fox now.
“So I hear these days that all the youths are voting for Obama… Meaghan, you’re a youth with a blog, what are your latest observations, do you have a different view on that?”
L.
O.
L.
death death penalty
Where have you read Obama say that he doesn’t support freedom of association? Especially after he was endorsed by some of the biggest labour unions in the U.S.?
This is utter nonsense. Plus it is besides the point utter nonsense, it is the NEXT agreement that is of critical importance now.
More nonsense. Edwards and Clinton (and Bill Clinton) were both centrist Democrats economically, That is why they were in the New Democratic caucus. Obama is further to the left than both of them on economics.
Of course Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are all economic rationalists. What would you prefer them to be, irrational?
John Edwards cheated on his wife who has cancer, so I have no idea why he should be considered the height of personal responsibility.
Face it Ron, your reasons for opposing Obama are utter nonsense based around misrepresentation of what he actually believes. Why the McCain campaign didn’t pick you up I have no idea.
Ron, Hillary’s policy from the primary was that she would promptly commit to a “Kyoto Protocol Round II” in 2010 (the proposed Copenhagen resolution). She supported ratifying Kyoto when she was elected to the Senate in 2000, but even she realises that ratifying it at this stage is futile.
From a speech she gave in November 2007:
Wtf? Why resort to a personal attack when the discussion was about his policies?
You did ignore the fact that Obama has no “universal health care” plan. It’s all based around tax credits and “creating competiton”.
I agree with the rest of what you said about Edwards/Clinton being supporters of “big government”.
Thing is, the left should be embracing Nader not Obama.
Haha. Chuck Todd on Morning Joe. Saying that a 45-45 poll from an unknown pollster in NM is an anomaly, and Joe trying to say it’s not.
Diogenes @ 40
Not so straightforward, I believe. The first thing to note is that the Russians or their proxies would have had to allow the BBC in -always a bit of a worry when you are interested in a balanced account. I am not sure I would trust the BBC to be expert on this one. The critical issue in evaluating civilian comments in this area is not what so much what people say, but who they are. That is, did the BBC check whether witnesses were Russians, Ossetians or Georgians? All these groups have reason to lie and this needs to be taken into account when assessing what they say. There is no sign that the BBC checked ethnicity. There has been a fair bit of ethnic cleansing and the BBC may have found it difficult to find Georgians in the areas to which they were allowed access. In terms of war crimes in the area, it is very likely that all three sides in the recent conflict committed some war crimes. This is par for the course in wars, actually. Given the history of the area, and of the ethnic hatreds, war crimes are all the more likely to have happened. There is also a fair bit of supporting evidence already on hand to show that war crimes have been committed. All sides appear to have engaged in some degree of ethnic cleansing, at a minimum. It is also likely that, since the Georgians actually started the shooting, they would have targeted areas they believed to contain Ossetians. Once the shooting started, given that the Ossetians have mixed up with their civilians significant numbers of militia, or civilian fighters, (or armed criminals), it was always going to be difficult, even had they wanted to, for the Georgians to sort out who exactly it was that they were trying to kill.
I am not excusing any of the participants. I believe that all probably did commit war crimes, and that the Georgians started the shooting. I remain cautious about what the BBC says.
OZ & AL
#51
“You did ignore the fact that Obama has no “universal health care” plan. It’s all based around tax credits and ‘creating competiton’.
I agree with the rest of what you said about Edwards/Clinton being supporters of big government’.
OZ , I do not know whether you were replying to my post or ShowsOn’s
1/ I AM saying Obama doers not support a universal healthcare system like Edwards & Hillary I AM saying instead Obama’s is all based around tax credits and ‘creating competiton’.
2/ I AM saying Edwards/Clinton ar supporters of Keynes type ‘big government’. I AM saying Obama instead supports a free enterprise model with nuances and gentle Govt nudges
Those that argue with this hav not researched Obama’s words from his mouth or econamic experts opinions
AL
all your post does is simply confirm Hillarys absolute committment to Kyoto mark 11 you will NEVER , I repeat NEVER find Obama saying that NOR does it appear in any of his written policys at all So my point stands Edwards & Hillary support ratifying Kyoto mark 11 , Obama himself does not (so Obama supporters hiding behind Congress difficulties does no alter Obama’s own lack of Kyoto belief & conviction)
My post #46 stands “But universal healthcare , Big govenment involvement economics and CC will do anyway as Obama not having ‘core left’ policys , unlike John Edwards”
What genuine obama suporters should be doing is either arguing a defective Obama is better than a Republicon , or defective Obama will achieve “something” ?
or Obama’s OWN econamic experts (opinions)
Yes, I was agreeing with that.
I disagree with that, though I admit I do not know an awful lot of Edwards economic views.
“I disagree with that, though I admit I do not know an awful lot of Edwards economic views.”
Which bit , Clinton or Obama…..with Obama I was being fair to him , whereas a McCain suporter would easily (but falsely) associate Obama’s advisors & Obama to th chicago school (thats Friedman “right’ territory) , but Obama is definitively not of th Clinton Big Govt philosdophy including strong direct re regulatory or competition etc
Whereas Republicons love Friedman types and i absolutely oppose that philosophy…alot of which is now in greedy treet ruins but believes there faith in it is not
No, I don’t think Obama is from any “big government” school of economics, but neither do I think Clinton is.
Is there any danger we will get a North Dakota poll before Tuesday, I need to put my final EV prediction into the tipping pool before Melbourne cup kicks off.
great article on hidden vote theories
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20081030_5152.php
worth a read
You hav not objected to my remarks that Edwards/Hillary support ratifying Kyoto and Obama does not
You hav agreed Obama is not from any “big government” school of economics
However you hav doubts Clinton on economaics is any diferent , which is where we differ Well thanks for your frankness & candour as an Obama suporter
In regard to econamics there was quite a revealing hard hittiing TV interview between Fox News Bill O’Reilly and Hillary during th Primarys & these ar often better sourses than 3rd party being from peoples own lips Whilst o’Reilly openly & seriously accused her of being a socialist psuppose ar for course , her responses on govt role & taxation clearly were that of a “centrist” its a label she acknowledges (like Billy Clinton) and which is geneally reagrded by US pundits as accuarate It basically a philosopghy bridging socialism and laissez faire unfettered free enterprise involving Government playing a big role in both economy , regulation & distribution of richs generated…and Hawke/Keating probably could be called centrists also but perhaps more so given ‘oz’ vs US psche on enterprise
I shoudl add which I omitted from post to Expat Follower , is apart from a broad FA EU relations improvement & also with some less developed Countries gained from Obama (but tink specific FA outcomes may not occur)…th same broadley may apply with th fnancial system now that th curent one is in tatters ..ie despite obama’s & his advisors non centrist philosophys it could well be that Congress pressure may forse him to be more so given Congress itself will be under extreme pressure to regolate far more but doubt whether than will extend to Bigger Govt policys in other domestic areas
Also OZ , I omitted to acknowledge you also agreed Obama does not support a universal healthcare system like Edwards & Hillary but instead Obama’s is all based around tax credits and ‘creating competiton’ That was also frank
Expat follower and Ron and everyone else too,
Expat and Ron, I wasn’t sure if your posts earlier on in this thread or not were for real guesses for our contest? If you want in can you repost your numbers in this form so I know for sure (esp. Ron, it is very hard to read and understand your posts).
1. EV guess
2. Will Obama take Missouri?
3. State that will put winner over the top (over the 270 mark)?
Anyone else, we need the same from you if you want in. [Possum where are you?
]We will take McCain supporters, you just have to be brave enough to put your guess out there and on the line.
Later on today, I will post the last update of my guesses list so that those who are already in can see if there are any mistakes or changes that they want to make.
New guesses or changes on old guesses or something you’ve missed earlier, just post it here and I’ll add it in. Other than one update later today, I will not post any more updates of the list. If you put your guess/changes up here from between now and Tuesday 10pm Canberra time (our deadline) I will add them in, no worries
McCain forced to campaign in Arizona on Monday
McCain’s “Robocalls” are backfiring
…..
Just how stupid is this woman:
[Palin told WMAL-AM that her criticism of Obama's associations, like those with 1960s radical Bill Ayers and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, should not be considered negative attacks. Rather, for reporters or columnists to suggest that it is going negative may constitute an attack that threatens a candidate's free speech rights under the Constitution, Palin said.
"If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.” ]
Please, please, please let the GOP pick her as the candidate in 2012.
the link for 67:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/31/palin-criticism-threatens_n_139729.html
Grog
Glenn Greenwald’s response is beautiful. The man is a national treasure.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/10/31/palin/index.html
I find all the hype about Arizona a real yawner.
Of course McCain is being run close in a state he should easily carry: that’s what happens in lopsided elections. (And Arizona would probably be a true swing state but for McCain being the nominee.)
Nonetheless, as all the polling suggests, McCain will carry Arizona. Even it’s by as little as Goldwater carried Arizona (1%), or Mondale carried Minnesota (0.2%).
The Senate poll is more interesting. But it’s worth adding two caveats. Firstly, we don’t know if Napolitano is even interested in running for the Senate. And secondly, it’s likely that the Republican brand won’t be as toxic in two years time as it is now. GOP Senate candidates like McCain will probably face a less hostile environment in 2010.
Yeah, Obama is just campaigning there to piss McCain off.
Oh, and McCain pissed voters off by running robocalls there.
McCain’s win percentage drops to 2.8%. The lowest it has ever been:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
before reading the whole article,try and guess who wrote it , and in what context.
“Senator Obama is, in short, an orthodox partisan, a man of left-leaning instinct who has – through the power of his rhetoric, head-snapping shifts in his position, and the attractiveness of his personality – won people over. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7700913.stm
You have probably seen it but it is hilarious….
Homer tries to vote for Obama…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aBaX9GPSaQ
“President Bush is, in short, an orthodox partisan, a man of right-leaning instinct who has – without the power of coherent rhetoric, or an inability to see alternatives to his positions, used the attractiveness of his clumsy personality to win people over.”
Ahnold – “Don’t vote for Obama, he’s skinny.”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24585297-23109,00.html
well spotted shows
somenoe mentioned a freudian slip(s) earlier.After reading the angst ridden articles from the former neocons , I think they articulating their deepest fears which gwb, by his actions,has awakened.
Eerily the mirroring between our election and the us’s continues.
73 I guessed Karl Rove.
74 As Homer would say – it’s funny because it’s true.
Supposedly that happened in West Virginia with early voting machines lol!
Americans are stupid for not just using a piece of paper and a pencil.
yep nothing beats a stubby little pencil. And the yanks don’t even have to worry about pref voting so now worried about not being able to count past 5.
make that “no worries”.
I do love a perfectly ill-timed series of typos occuring while I’m having a go at the intelligence level of an entire country…
juliem – are we allowed to change predictions we’ve made?
“Palin kids wear costumes to rally. Trig dresses up as the Republican Party–an elephant with down syndrome”
omg
its true
http://embeds.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/capt4ef41e7df6ed41b49e9ead19833955c6mccain_palin_2008_pajh107.jpg
I’m going to hell for this one
Aren’t the computer machines meant to make things faster?
They’re going to have something like 140 million voters.
Explosive politics from Republican Melissa Hart. Everyone knows the Democrats are to blame for the global financial crisis.
injuddstree @ 83,
ABSOLUTELY, any changes are fine as long as I get them with a “postmark” before 10pm Canberra time on Tuesday
……
Here is the list that I have to this point. As noted in #87, change to your hearts delight or let me know about any missing tie breaker questions. William, do you want to submit a tie-breaker answer as to the moment, you’ve got the same answer that I do (unless I change mine between now and Tuesday, unlikely at this point but who knows?). [ my 375 was in first so if 375 comes up and I don't get a tie-breaker answer(s) from you, I'll use first in as the tie breaker. Had it been anyone else's guess, I would've no idea of when it was put down ]. Tie breaker questions are (1) will Obama take Missouri? and (2) which state will put Obama over the 270 count on election night? (based upon the order that the states are called in using CNN’s coverage and remember, some early states may not be called right away and some others later might be called as soon as the polls close)
Big Blind Dave O 273
Oz M 274 N MO
Dario O 286 N MO Colorado
Glen O 291 N MO
worktorule O 291 N MO Colorado
Diogenes O 293 N MO Minnesota
philofsydney O 306 N MO NC
ShowsOn O 309 N MO Colorado
GaryBruce O 310 Y MO Florida
Al O 311 N MO CA/OR/WA/HA
jjulian1009 O 313 N MO California
Kakuru O 318 N MO
injuddstree O 322 N MO
Socrates O 328 Y MO Colorado
Enjaybee O 338 N MO Florida
Hugo O 338 N MO Virginia
Evan14 O 338 Y MO
Gusface O 348 Y MO Colorado
Grog O 348 N MO Florida
Sondeo O 350 N MO Colorado
David Walsh O 364 Y MO California
Julie O 375 Y MO Colorado
William O 375 Y MO
BH O 376 Y MO Florida
Yo ho ho O 400 Y MO Florida
JJ,
Please tell me again how Arnie and Maria bloody manage their relationship? I recall asking this some several weeks ago and I don’t know that you answered it? Sorry if I missed it. I would go insane if my spouse was the polar opposite from me on politics …….
Hi Julie – I’ll definitely come off the fence in time on all 3 contest qns, but I still can’t decide which way Missouri & Indiana are going to go – and the early results in Georgia look amazing for Obi as well (unbelievably so, to the point where he needs v little (<40%) of normal voters remaining to win the state, if my triangulation is right.
Ron – I for one am convinced that you have criticisms of Obama from the left. I personally happen to think his positions are realistic given the mainstream fabric of American politics – Hilary lost me when she wouldn’t admit Iraq vote was wrong and her silly populist gas tax holiday… not to mention taking an intellectually ‘lower road’ in campaigning for the sake of winning – mind you, JohnnyMac has made her efforts in this regard look like nothing in comparison. I still think she should have been the VP candidate, though – 400+ seats would be definitely on – would like to think she was offered it and turned it down, but we’ll have to wait for someone’s memoirs to reveal that in about 10 yrs time…
Glen – are there any Arnie Vinick candidates you can think of for a run in 2012? Pity the real Arnie can’t run! How can a relative moderate win the nomination, with what’s going to be left of the registered republican base? If I had to be in anyone’s position, I reckon Huckabee is placed well (and is thoroughly likeable in spite of his ideology). Maybe Romney can go back to being a fiscal conservative and stop touting flopped social positions in the hope that they have to nominate him for any realistic chance (not unlike McCain this time around)?
84. Zombie Mao, as the father of a daughter with DS let me just say your idea of humour is at bottom-feeding scum level.
Heard the one about the presidential candidate’s aunt who is living illegally in the United States. Not John’s, you can bet. She’d be a centenarian at least.
Great map of poll closing times (bookmark for Wednesday)
http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3641
’tis a cool map ShowsON – ta
Indiana closes first, so I assumes those results will trickle in first?
If Obama wins there, then it will be a landslide.
If they call Indiana for Obama early then it will be so funny to see what Fox does for the rest of the night.
ShowsOn & Grog,
Time zone map – http://www.worldtimezone.com/time-usa12.php
poll closing times (another source) – http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=c
Note that this list of poll closing times notes those areas where all polls in a state close at the same time and those where they don’t. Read to the bottom of the list for the exceptions. Here are some for examples from that list:
[
Idaho General Election: Polls close asynchronously at 8:00p MST (0300 UTC) / 8:00p PST (0400 UTC). Local option allows polling places to open at 7 AM. A sizable part of IDAHO is in PST but, as the MST section is the much more populated portion of the state, the networks consider that "most of the polls in IDAHO" are closed by 8 PM MST.
Indiana General Election: Polls close asynchronously at 6:00p EST (2300 UTC) / 6:00p CST (0000 UTC). Although much of this state is in CST, the majority of the polls are closed by the time indicated EST when the networks feel they can project.
Kansas General Election: Polls close asynchronously at 8:00p MST (0300 UTC) / 8:00p CST (0200 UTC). Most polls in the State close at either 7 pm or 8 pm local time in the Central Time Zone by local option; the remaining polls in the Mountain Time Zone close at either 6 pm or 7 pm local time by local option. The time noted as the "official" poll closing time is the statutory poll closing time and is that at which the networks generally consider the polls in the State to have closed.
Kentucky General Election: Polls close asynchronously at 6:00p EST (2300 UTC) / 6:00p CST (0000 UTC). Poll closing time could be rather problematic in KENTUCKY. A large chunk of the state is in CST [but the networks consider that "most of the polls have closed" in KENTUCKY by 6 PM EST and so, if they can, project at the same time they project INDIANA]. CST voters in KENTUCKY may note the networks’ willingness/eagerness to project a winner as early as 6 PM EST.
]
The link ShowsOn provided doesn’t get specific enough imho so for those who want specific information, bookmark this link as well. The time zone map is provided so that you can tell which parts of which states are in which time zones as a number of key areas in some states straddle time zones.
Julie, Missouri is part of my count of 375 votes, so I’m going to have to answer yes even though I’m not confident about it. I’ll get back to you on number two.
Hmm good question ask me on November 6…
If only the Republicans could draft Arnold Vinick for 2012 he’d do better than most they’d put up. Palin and Huck only appeal to the base essentially and Romney is a Mormon nuff said. I guess the only chance the Republicans have is convince Alan Alda to change his name to Arnold Vinick and force a Republican Senator to resign and let him get appointed.
Really the Republicans should question why they are so far out of touch in many States where they used to dominate…i hope Senator Smith wins in Oregon the last thing the Republicans need is moderates getting voted out.
West Wing thought wrong no coloured candidate winning the white house but a latino lol!
William
Any word on what PB will be doing for the US election, or is it just business as usual. There will be quite a lot of traffic I imagine…
cheers juliem – work on Wednesday is going to inolve a fair bit of looking at news sites – of course I wouldn’t do that normally
OK Julie, here’s my entry: Obama to win with 404 EVs, to win Missouri, & Iowa to put him over the line. Reserving the right to change it on Monday if Louisiana looks like going as well. (How do you put in those smiley faces?)
zogby gets a run on the ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/01/2407669.htm?section=justin
oddly gallup now that it is showing a widening doesn’t get a mention..
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx
Grog – like every other news outlet, they’re trying to make it seem really tight on election day. There’s nothing worse for them than a blowout.
Today’s Herald used some obscure CBS Poll that had Obama 11 points in front.
I wonder on what basis media outlets pick polls. Probably whatever suits their narrative. The SMH had about 400 articles about how Obama is already the President.
100, William I got that one
……. no worries 
…..
Juliem @93:
We all know Palin is the most brilliant VP choice the Republicans could have made. The Dems haven’t stopped going on about her since the day she was selected. She’s had them panicking all along.
104, got that too, no worries
….. changes allowed as long as they are posted nlt 10pm Canberra time Tuesday 
…..
Here is a link to some voter turnouts by state.
http://elections.gmu.edu/voter_turnout.htm
Charles R @ 104,
You put in smiley faces with
….. which is : – ) without the spaces …
now what I want to know is how to put in the super smiley faces, like the ones that come out like laughing or super grinning type faces? thanks in advance to anyone who can give me the clue there
…..
juliem
The smilies on this site turn out a little different to these but this gives you the basics.
http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies
Ok Dio, lets test these and see how they come out …..
(from the wordpress site)
; – ) is
: – ) is
: – ( is
: -? is
hopefully I got 4 different ones ….
thanks diogenes
(just checking if it works)
and I did get 3 different ones, the 3rd and 4th ones are the same, but I didn’t get your “evil grinning type face” that was red like the devil ….. what is the clue to that one? Hmmm?? …. thanks in advance
(will see if these provide the figure I am looking for)
has anybody else seen this?
http://www.zogby.com/main.htm
McCain was in front in fridays polling 48-47, please reassure me everything is OK?
got it I think, I want the second one (in #117) but wondering how you get it to be red as you show in the #113 message?
Gen’l Sheridan in today’s OO on the race for POTUS:
‘The selection of Palin as his running mate was a stroke of genius by McCain.’
His critique is that the race has turned into a race between celebrity rather than a race based on serious intent and a history of policy work. So, Mr Sheridan, Palin’s policy credentials are…?
Gen’l Sheridan is going cold turkey on his power feeds, and is very grumpy. The US mates who stroked his ego, fed him misinformation, and led him a merry dance are going, going… and so should Gen’l Sheridan. Like them, he too is well past his useby date.
#118,
zogby got an early start on the party and he’s cheated a little bit …. everything is fine, no worries there
….. check back in with us about 2pm on Wednesday afternoon Canberra time, business as usual 
…….
118 – 538 gives you the run down:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Zogby has been all over the place this election. Probably the poll to take the least notice of.
112 & 114
Thanks for the tip Juliek. Let’s see if i can do it right
I got the face right but spelt your name wrong. Sorry Julie.
Darn, no worries, probably getting a head start on the celebration, eh?
…..
Sean
Nate Silver at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com dissects the zogby poll (and other zogby’s) – yes, he has a bias, but I tend to agree with his analysis overall.
As for predictions (not that I have any luck these days with these things…) – 353 vs 185. Obama to take FL, OH, VA & NC (plus NM, CO, NV & IA). Don’t feel entirely comfortable with NV & NC, but what the heck!!
To Ron:
Do people on here really tell all lefties to back Obama? I back him in a pragmatic kinda way – better than McCain/Palin but actually not covering the policy issues that I would want. As a third party/Green supporter I would normally vote for McKinney – except if I lived in one of the above states when I would vote for Obama. Tactical voting is what is left in FFP elections, and I WOULD vote – “use it or lose it” is how I’ve always viewed voting, even though we have compulsory registration & attendance. I’m always reminded (anecdote 1) of the people who I’ve met over the years at polling booths and at community meetings who haven’t always had the option (or are just discovering what preferential voting is!!). But back to my point – I would not tell people how to vote – just TO vote (anecdote 2: always got annoyed with English friends who complained endlessly about Thatcher but didn’t see the point in voting. Got what they deserved as far as I was concerned…).
Boerwar 120
Palin does have policies – just that what I’ve heard of them are scary…and then there’s the fact that she’s apparently Ted Steven’s protege…and now they are talking about her making a run in 2012…
Juliem
Did you say that you were going to post all the guesses before the election to give us a chance to review what we have submitted? If not, could you let me know what my EV guess was. I’ve forgotten and am too lazy to go back through all the blogs.Thanks.
And Grog got there first coz I took half an hour with that post!
On Intrade, someone just put a heap of money down on Obama winning Missouri. It was for McCain this morning, but it is now back for Obama.
Also since this morning, Indiana has strengthened for McCain; Ohio has strengthened for Obama.
Once again, please pay no attention to daily trackers because they will drive you to drink or distraction. Even if Zogby’s latest poll has the slightest chance of not being an outlier, a fair whack of that “swing” is likely to be buried in already deep Red or deep blue states. Case in point: Here’s Zogby’s latest Electoral Vote guesstimate as of 27 Oct.:
Obama 286
McCain 174
Toss-up 78
Z’s got the same states down for Obama which we see on RCP, Princeton, or 538 as well as usual toss-up suspects of FLA, NC, OH, MO, and NV, with the only “outlier” toss-up being NV.
Naturally, Z’s pogo-stick daily tracking numbers have negligible impact upon his Electoral College Map.
Link: http://www.zogby.com/50state/
The best part of Nate Silver’s analysis is that polls move for a reason, and nothing has happened that would cause the polls (or voters) to shift to McCain.
As Jon Stewart likes to say, unless a tape with BO saying “where all the white women at?” not much is going to change between now and the 4th.
Enjay,
Julie listed them in # 88.. You are down: Enjaybee O 338 N MO Florida
Grog,
There are now some university math geniuses who have run the magic numbers in their steam calculators and claim it is 100% certainty. Nate Silver’s 97% is good enough for me!
enjayee@128, see #88 THIS same thread for your previous guesses ….. the computer that I had that file saved on has crashed tonight, so thankfully I’ve posted the total here earlier in the day so I know what everyone has guessed ….. I’ll reconstruct it tomorrow on this computer (we’ve two computers in this house) …. Cheers
Juliem
Sorry I missed that post (I thought I’d read them all). Am changing my state that takes Obama past 270 to Ohio.
StewartJ, I will add your guess to the list in the morning; I’ve written down here tonight – 353/ No Missouri/ ? for which state will put Obama over the top. I’ll be watching CNN on Wednesday with the returns so I’ll use their info. to decide which state puts Obama over the top ….. if you care to add that piece of info. that would be great
…… Cheers 
jjulian – at this point I doubt even a “chaser style prank” by Obama himself would change anything.
And when you figure that on the EV front going by RCP BO would have to lose a quarter of the 363 votes polling his way just to get to 270.
Brett Lee just bowled Sewag (played on) for 16. 1/29
A draw as likely as a BO win.
juliem
Could you please add my guess to you list:
Obama 271, he gets OH but only after a long court battle, he fails in VA, OH, FL, NC, CO, NV and MO.
I’m optimistic.
Recommend the Take Away Electoral College Prediction Tracker. Quick link to key polls. Not Zogby. which is 49.1/45.1.
NBC/WSJ
Obama 52
McCain 42
Haha. Joe and Pat Buchanan are talking up Hillary. You know it’s all over when these two divert from the issues by talking up HILLARY.
I take it this is the start of the narrowing?
McCain is going to make up 3% per day from here on in, and win the election comfortably?
It’s amazing watching Chuck Todd talking with Pat Buchanan and Joe on MSNBC. They keep throwing scenarios at him about how McCain can win, and he keeps politely talking them down. He’s trying to tell them that just because some of the polls are coming slightly back to McCain doesn’t mean he will WIN – it will stop a 350+ landslide. And then they just keep talking about all of the Republicans “coming home” in the last few days, Chuck chuckles, then they go to an ad break : – )
Then they repeat the process until he is saved by another ad break?
AHHHH cable news…
Haha, yep ShowsOn. Thing is, this is the first time I’ve had regular access to US cable news… I’m hooked. I can’t believe these idiots.
I’m not sure I understand exactly how describing Obama as ‘liberal’ is meant to turn people off of him? What would they prefer him be?
Apparently in the U.S. liberalism means Marxism which means socialism which means communism, which means higher taxes.
It says so in this article with the scary photo of Karl Marx:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/28/obama-affinity-marxists-dates-college-days/
I guess Fox News think voters want illiberal politicians.
8-10 hour waits in Atlanta, lines are up to 500 metres long, with no access to seats or seated areas. No wonder why so many people don’t vote! What a disgraceful arrangement.
I do believe ‘beaten’ is the term they would prefer Ltep knowing that lot.
The economists are playing their games again.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/prediction-markets-and-the-election-a-game/
Pat Buchanan: “If Obama wins the election, there will be a revolt against the media, and all of Obama’s associations will come out and, just like with the Iraq War, the tough questions haven’t been asked and there will be an outcry.”
juliem,
If it’s not too late to enter, I’ll go with:
- 352 EVs for Obama (mostly the obvious, except I reckon he won’t win Florida, but will win Georgia and Indiana)
- No he won’t win Missouri
- California will be the state that puts him over the top.
Cheers
Morning Joe
Joe: “Everyone is negative on John McCain, in terms of reporting, and pro-Obama”
Some lady: “Well, who has run the better campaign?”
Joe: “John McCain has”.
Look at this website http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/10/21/gallup-and-new-coke.php
apparently all (yes all!) the polls have a left-wing bias
the way the fox news is going, by 2012 advocating democracy will be considered massively left wing…
PA
Rasmussen 51-47 Obama +4%
Morning call 52-44 Obama +8%
Exactly.
See if they had non-partisan election officials, everyone in the line could be handed a postal ballot and a pencil, which they could fill in then leave at the nearest mail box.
This coming from a guy who said that Obama’s acceptance speech was one of the best ever?
I think anywhere else in the world Fox news would be considered insane. It is so bad people in Australia would be more likely to see it as a comedy show doing parody than realise they were actually serious.
But it rates. A lot of people like watching it.
And apparently MSNBC has just morphed into a Left wing version of Fox. Now CNN is the only cable network left that at least tries to be centrist. The others realised that you can make more money by adopting a ideological stance on every issue.
The news blurs into entertainment…
Buchanan did just say that he thinks it will be 52-46 Obama, so he’s not totally insane.
“I have this gut feeling it will be really really close… but I have nothing to actually base that on”
His GUT!
This is a textbook example of truthiness.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=truthiness
Oh, I mean a GUT example of truthiness
Douglas Holtz-Eakin was asked a question about how Obama is actually leading polls on how he would handle the economy. “Well, those polls are tightening up, and even starting to flip to McCain”. How do they get away with this? Now they’re just making things up and no one says anything.
national trackers thus far
om-zogby! O49 M44
daly Kos O51 M44
Rassmussssssssssssen: O51 M46
While zogby tightens, the others widen
= statistical noise and zogby crapiness
I’ve got all of the entries and changes posted overnight, up to and including Dyno’s.
I’m missing a few tie breakers here and there but that is mostly of no consequence since that won’t come into play unless you’ve the same number selected as someone else. So far, though, we don’t have many numbers doubled up but there are a few …..
First case is this one so Glen, if you want to select a state that will put Obama over the top and it would be ideal if you didn’t chose Colorado
Glen O 291 N MO
worktorule O 291 N MO CO
Next, here – Evan14, can you please select a state for putting Obama over the top, preferably not Virginia
Enjaybee O 338 N MO OH
Hugo O 338 Y MO VA
Evan14 O 338 Y MO
Lastly, William but you already knew that
….. I’ve chosen Colorado ….
Changes and entries accepted until 10pm Tuesday Canberra time …..
Proof positive not to trust Zogby
Gallup likely voters (traditional) BO 52-42! Take that “narrowing”!
Eexpat Follower
#90
Posted Saturday, November 1, 2008 at 4:09 pm | Permalink
“Ron -I for one am convinced that you have criticisms of Obama from the “left”
I personally happen to think his positions are realistic given the mainstream fabric of American politics”
I appreciate your comments Expat Follower I hav been astonished in 8 months of posting with over 100 Obama suporters in 2 Sites , you ar th only Obama supporter to actualy publicly acknowledge my Obama criticisms ar based (for me) on Obama NOT being ‘left’ on certain key ‘left’ policys I respect your integrity XF and your abov reasons for suporting Obama despite our views somewhat differing
Perhaps there ar a few who privately share some of th Obama reservations I’ve listed , however on a very pro Obama Site such as this it does somewhat inhibit even Obama supporters from voicing much resorvations without being sort of assailed by th rusted ons
I actually thought initially Obama was “Hilliary plus” candidate & was for him until I did thorough research on Obama after he made a vague (to me) speech on healthcare Objective research was dificult because Obama being new & fresh , being a briliant orator and “a Democrat” offering “change” was so appealing in stark contrast to th militistic corrupt & illegal Republicon Bush
So yes I found after extensive research that disappointingly Obama lacked for me core left policys in
1/ Obama not supporting universal healthcare (45 million in US ar uninsured totally & anotherr 30 million grossly underinsured) ,
2/ Obama not supporting ratifying Kyoto (Obama supports an exclusive GED13 grouping instead ) and
3/ Obama not supporting centrist Big Govt economic involvement in th econamy (Obama supports a nudge nudge nuanced philosophy re Govt involvement in th economy , in regulation , in competition policy etc)
These cost my support for Obama as a ‘left’ candidate on fundamental (to me) ‘left principals’ , and so I supported Edwards or Hillary (preferred) who do support these principals Had Gore ever stood I would hav supported him irrespective of Hillary or Edwards
As a total overview Expat Follower , I did also find progresively over months other social & FA ‘left’ policys Obama lacked:
4/ his tax scales ,
5/ his capital gains tax on houses to $500,000 ,
6/ his Non support for Publicly funded Electons ,
7/ his support of th Death Penalty even wheen no murder was involved ,
8/ his support of denying viable babys medical assistance when born from an Abortion ,
9/ his opposition against 7 of th 9 Supreme Cout Judges decision in July upholding th Roe/Wade Abortion exception in mmental cases , instead Obama sided with th 2 dissenting extreme conservative judges Thomas & Scalia
10/ his support for 5 consevative Supreme Court Judges on 27/6/08 ruling to actually overtune an existing Washington City law banning carrying hand guns in Washinggton City streets (and against th 4 ‘left Supreme Court Judges dissent)
11/ his support for 5 consevative Supreme Court Judges in July favoring Exxon over th Valdez 2,000 km Alaskan oil spill disaster ( and against th 4 ‘left’ Supeme court Judges dissent
12/ his support of expanding Bush’s disgraceful social spending on religious based Organisations
13 /his part support for oil drilling in protected waters 9previously had opposed this action)
14/ his support for a Bill in June giving immunity to th Illegal Telcos who had actually spied for Bush by using illegal wiretaps (yet in January Obama had (correctly) supported Senators Dodd (D) & Feingold (D) & others in opposing giving such immunity
15/ supported the Bush/Cheney Oil Energy Bill (it was called a pinata of perks and the best energy bill that energy Corporations could buy ! (over ½ of th Senate Democrats voted against th Bill including Democrats Harry Reid , Teddy Kennedy , Joe Biden , Hillary , Dodd , Feingold & John Kerry)
16/ did not support 2 Bills in th Senate to close Guantanamo that Joe Biden , Hillary , Dodd etc did support to get rid of it quickly (Obama claimed he wanted his own provisions , so sat pat)
17/ voted for th Patriot Act , only 10 Democrats did not)
18/ has actually said he would pre-emptively , yes pre emptively attack Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal if there was ever a regime change in Pakistan that he was not happy with
19/ supports both retaining US bases and US ‘non combat’ troops in Iraq even after he withdraws US troops from Iraq
Summary:
I’d sugest I hav far more non ‘lelt’ policys (as listed abov) for my non support of Obama than most rusted on Obama supporters actually hav in favour of him
I can understand Non rusted on Obama supporters support for Obama as a Democrat over any Republican , and can understand that consequentialy there will be some improvement in FA relations particularly with th EU (tangible results/outcomes I do question) , and understand there will be some improvement in regulation (probably Congress will insist on even more than Obama’s own philosopghy) and there will be domestocally probably some more ‘humane’ & liberties policys from a Democrat than a Republicon I don’t hav angst with people taking that view , my disagreement was with th rusted on Obama supporters who believed either Obama was an “Edwards left type” or believed in Obama’s policy ‘perceptions’…. brilliantly spoken , but that actualy were never there
Whereas I take a different view & expect more for my support (& certainly support for most of th ‘left’ policys as listed) , so I’m an ‘informal’ voter as a protest….admittedly if contest was a cliff hanger then I would hav been forsed reluctantly on principal to vote for Obama as I’d never obviousdly want my non vote to elect a GOP POTUS)
Some heartening signs that inside the republican camp they know the claims fo a McCain victory are all BS:
http://www.theage.com.au/world/republicans-brace-for-big-losses-20081101-5fwx.html
There should be some schardenfreudlicious fallout featuring bitter recriminations after this one.
Maybe the next prediction games should be too guess the responses of the republican hard core. For example, who will be the first to utter these predictable cliches:
“We failed to communicate our message” (because the message is never wron)
“Our country has turned away from Christian values” (we can guess who will trot that one out)
“We need to move away from partisan politics and work together (whose attack adds?)
“The financial crisis is global and we all have to solve it” (its not our fault we’re broke!)
“This is no time to play the blame game”
“President Bush has served his country with distinction” (well Halliburton and Exxon did OK)
On Sunrise this morning the guy from Deal or No Deal (can’t think of his name at the mo) asked Mark Riley in the US if the revelations about BO’s aunt being an illegal immigrant would hurt his campaign.
Unbelievable. Yep, this is the ace the Repubs have been holding waiting till the right moment.
Riley of course stated “though there has been some narrowing of the polls”. Seriously why even pretend you know what you’re talking about?
This is hillarious! Saturday Night Live gives McCain the George W Bush endorsement we know he always wanted:
http://mikewatkins.ca/2008/10/24/humour-a-vote-for-john-mccain/
These guys are really going ot miss the campaign when its over. I knew Tina Fey’s impersonation of Palin was great, but the Bush impersonation is pretty darn accu-rate too!
Colorado will probably put Obama over the top.
He should have added that the Repugs don’t have any problem getting the ignorant, uneducated, racist and stupid vote.
Just as a comment about the polls and “narrowing” – I simply don’t believe it. This has been the longest most heavily publicised POTUS campaign in history (remember the early start). How many people who are actually going to vote haven’t made up their mind by now? This decision is made.
Meanwhile the US economy has been spiralling down for almost two months now. (The crisis started in early September; we are now in November). McCain has no solution to it and his economics advisor was one of the advocates of the policies that led to the problem in the first place. Obama does not apear to have made any major errors in his recent speeches and policy statements. What possible reason is there for a narrowing? It doesn’t add up.
“David Frum, a former speechwriter for Mr Bush, said he feared that the party could become a “white, rural rump” in the mid-west and deep south.”
http://www.theage.com.au/world/republicans-brace-for-big-losses-20081101-5fwx.html
What would Lincoln say? ’shakes head’
Yes Dio; those are the votes they have courted for at least 10 years. Shame on them.
Hahahaha
Palin falls for a talk with “Sarkozy”. She is such a moron.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1108/Sarkozy_calling.html?showall
Glen I wonder how many people realise Lincoln was a Republican?
Dio
Thanks thats great. When you think about it, its one thing to say they tricked Palin, but how did they get through all her minders to convince them that it was Sarkozy in the first place?
They wouldnt today, the party is not like it used to be.
If anything they need to break away from the conservative christian core base and become a centre-right party not a right wing party.
If they are shut out in the West and North East automatically they are starting from a loss at every election.
Glen, if the republicans really cared about the values Lincoln stood for now I’d have a lot more respect for them myself. But thats a bit hard to believe when they say its OK to torture people because it happens in a different country, or because waterboarding isn’t torture. I suspect Lincoln wouldn’t have approved.
Yep – when you look back at the electoral maps of Reagan they look completely bizarre in today’s context.
Impossible to consider a Republican winning 49 states (or a Dem as well of course).
I completely agree with you Glen, the GOP have pushed harder and harder back to their base over the last 8 years; trying to secure the base and then using GOTV to beat the Dems. The problem is that the Dems (and noteably Obama) saw that and ran to the middle ground. I believe the GOP will have the same problems the Libs are having in Australia: their opposition has moved to the right, taking the middle ground and making it hard for them to move back and recapture the centre.
Saturday’s polls would always be the big ones. If McCain showed a real tightening (to 3-4 points in 4 or 5 major polls), then the media would jump on the bandwagon even more and I think so would a lot of voters. Not a single poll has him closer than 5 points. Heck, even both Gallup’s are +10.
The November surprise. Listen to it here. It is absolutely cringeworthy. Palin tries to flirt with him and agrees to go shooting baby seals from a helicopter (that bits in French).
http://www.tindeck.com/audio/filestore/w/wwdo-SarahPalin.mp3
“Sarkozy” also says he enjoyed watching the “edgy” documentary he saw on her called “Who’s nailin’ Palin” and she agrees.
186 Thanks Dio ROTFL. Its amazing she didn’t tweak till so late in the interview. She “just kept ploughing on”.
Socrates,
You are most sagacious in your comment @ 175.
Here’s some heavy-duty support from Electoral-vote.com’s VoteMaster today:
“Obama Still Leading Nationally
Obama’s national lead is currently at 6.3%, about the same as it has been all week. If he wins the popular vote by 6%, he will most likely carry nearly all the swing states. Here are today’s numbers.
– AP (Obama +8)
– Battleground (Obama +4)
– Diageo (Obama +7)
– Gallup expanded (Obama +9)
– IBD (Obama +4)
– Marist (Obama +7)
– Rasmussen (Obama +4)
– Research 2000 (Obama +6)
– Washington Post/ABC (Obama +9)
– Zogby (Obama +5)
Today’s Polls
We have 30 presidential polls today. Arizona is surprisingly close and Obama is running some ads there, but McCain should still win his home state in the end. Yet another poll (from ARG) shows Obama ahead in Colorado, 52% to 45%. With the Kerry states in the bag along with Iowa and New Mexico, a win in Colorado means that nothing else matters. Georgia is getting closer, but McCain will probably hold this one.. Missouri is a real tossup. If it goes for McCain and Obama wins, it loses its hallowed bellwether status. North Carolina is still too close to call. McCain made a real effort to win Pennsylvania, but it is not paying off. Obama’s solid lead there is stable.”
Link: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Further support: Intrade Opened at Obama 84.1, now 8 hours later Obama 84.0. McCain opened at 17, now down to 16.5. “Stable” does seem to be the operative word for the race today.
Link: http://www.intrade.com/
Sorry, forgot to include electoral-vote.com’s E.V. guesstimate:
Obama 353 McCain 185.
Obama wins Kerry + CO FL IA NV NM NC OH VA.
Thanks for the kind words jjulian. Your analysis accords with my instincts much better than Zogby.
I suppose I should be careful not to get too polemic at this stage; frankly I am getting tired of this oen and just wish it would be over soon. Bush has effectively been a lame duck president for two years. On top of that the desire of McCain not to have Bush seen during the campaign means he has done even less than usual to show leadership during the GFC (as Rudd would call it). So the US and world economies desperatelyneed him gone, and I just wish it was soon.
Glen 182
I shouldn’t have responded too harshly to your previous comment about Lincoln because you were expresing a valid concern not denial. But I am curious to ask you: when do you think it went wrong for the republicans? I don’t think it can all be heaped on Bush, Cheney and Rove, because they couldn’t have done what they did without a large body of the party being behind them.
Even in the last two years with Dems in the majority of House of Reps, Repubs had effective majority in the Senate when it really matters due to Joe Lieberman and Maverick ((90%) McCain supporting Bush and Cheney, most particularly Iraq War funding without an exit timeline.
191 Socrates – it’s a good question…. When Newt came along? 1994?
Doonesbury calls it for BO:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/doonesbury-comic-strip-pr_n_140033.html
injuddstree @ 154
Re: Morning Joe Scarborough:
From Wikipedia, here’s what Joe’s famous for when member of House of Reps from state of Florida (1996-2001):
“Scarborough supported a number of pro-life positions while in Congress including legislation that made it a crime to harm a fetus during the commission of other crimes.
Scarborough sponsored a bill to force the U.S. to withdraw from the United Nations after a four-year transition[6] and voted to make the Corporation for Public Broadcasting “self-sufficient”[7] by eliminating federal funding. He also voted for the “Medicare Preservation act of 1995,”[8] which cut the projected growth Medicare by $270 billion over ten years, and against the “Small Business Job Protection Act of 1996″[9] which raised the minimum wage to $5.15. Scarborough had a conservative voting record on economic, social, and foreign policy issues, but was seen as moderate on environmental issues and human rights causes (including closing the School of the Americas and Lori Berenson).[2]“
Oh, did I forget to mention, he was one of Newt Gingrich’s “Federalist” Republicans.
Palin and Sarkozy interview is on You Tube http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=QbEwKcs-7Hc
lol Alexander Downer on Insiders.
“It would be better for Australia if McCain won”.
Maybe in your dream of a fascist world state, Alexander.
Go back to Cyprus.
CBS/NYT
Obama 54 (+2)
McCain 41 (steady)
Saw that too, Oz. What a bitter, bitter man. He still doesn’t understand what they did wrong to lose last year.
Holy crap this Sarah Palin prank call is insane.
Is it getting a run in the press?
Yeah it is, MSNBC are playing it in their entirety in a minute.
Enough time for the Obama people to make an ad out of this HA HA
The article argues for voting trends that are formed in ones childhood as you are growing up. For the most part, I agree with this. But there is an exception to every case and in my family, I’ve got my 44yo sister who is Republican going against the grain of 3 siblings and both parents. The only clue I’ve got is that she married into a Republican family and has become changed to those values over time. Here in my own home, though, the authors points ring loud and true. My older 2 children, 22yo and 19yo respectively, are both voting for Obama {they live in the US} as are their dad and their mother
……. and my 2 younger children still at home, 10yo and 7yo, understand what we’ve been telling them about Rudd et. al 
…….
How about others with children, siblings, parents still alive? Do your family members vote together in a bloc or not? And if not, can you pinpoint the reasons why not? Interesting topic for discussion
injuddstree @ 200
How does a personal opinion on which US presidential candidate would be better in Australia’s interests have anything to do with last years’ election loss?
I don’t know. But it did remind me of Howard’s attack on Obama.
Labor thinks the U.S. / Australia alliance is strong irrespective of which political parties are in power in either country.
Liberals seem to think the relationship is strong as long as they are in power while Republicans are in power.
LOL! Cheney is campaigning for McCain in WYOMING! WTF?
Alexander Downer is just a private individual now though who can freely express an opinion as to which candidate he thinks would be better for Australia. I’m sure most Government members would have an opinion as well (privately) but few (at least in high positions) would express it publicly.
He can express it, just as we can point out how much of an idiot he is
It’s interesting ltep that you defend Downer’s freedom to express an opposing opinion on the US election but seem to be questioning an opposing opinion made here by someone about Downer.
Dario
No we can’t. We’re infringing his First Amendment Right to freedom of speech. Just ask Palin. The media CANNOT criticise politicians. They are above criticism.
Careful. Thinking that the U.S. constitution applies to Australians will make you sound like Ron.
What do people think about Obama’s aunt?
She’s living in the country “illegally” as she was denied asylum 4 years ago. Obama has said that “All relevant laws should be obeyed” which is fair enough though a bit harsh. Must be difficult for him. The campaign has had to return $260 of donations she gave as she isn’t a citizen.
I’m thinking the Govt would want BO to win, and Rudd would be praying he comes over for a visit – the crowds would be huge, and Rudd would be hoping for some of the Obama warm glow to rub off.
If McCain wins, and comes here for a visit, he’d be lucky to fill all the seats at a Rotary Club meeting.
Socrates @191. I think that the seeds of destruction are often sown at a time when for all appearances a person or organisation are at the apparent peak of their power. Some good examples from both sides of Aust politics would be Paul Keating and his “true believers” win. It was pretty much straight down hill from that point. For John Howard it was his big win over Latham that gave him his unexpected margin in the Senate. This allowed him to impose Workchoices and slow motion suicide ensued.
I believe that the end of the Republicans can in some ways be traced back to Reagan, who preached financial austerity but did not practice it. He was at heart a Howardian populist. He also made popular the idea that American power could be exerted to provide thrilling and patriotism enhancing television footage but ensured he did so on small, helpless targets, ie Grenada. He created war and its coverage in the mode of Top Gun, in lieu of Apocalypse Now. The Republicans who came after him fell in love with his rhetoric but fell into the trap of ignoring his practices. They cut spending on social programs and the like, and picked big and expensive wars that continued too long to remain picturesque. His rhetoric of being the lone gunslinger in foreign policy modelled on Clint Eastwood in Pale Rider was just talk. In the time of Bush and Cheney it was their action plan.
For my money, the demise of the Republicans can be traced to the “old pretender”, or more accurately, the failure of his followers to recognise what he was, a spin doctor par excellance.
215 good points MC.
Florida early voting doesn’t look good for McCain:
So that’s nearly an 8% lead according to party affiliation alone! And nearly half of the amount of people who voted in 2004 have already voted.
But they implemented his economic policies PERFECTLY! Cut taxes, but not spending.
Is it just that the economy was smaller in 1980? With a bigger economy, unfunded tax cuts produce bigger deficits.
ShowsOn – looks good re: Florida early voting. But are those figures actual counted votes, or are they exit polls? Or affiliations?
Well, Cheney is from there… it kinda makes sense. Where else would he be welcome?
Of course, any discussion of the Presidency of R Reagan would not be complete without a mention of the birthplace of Bushes Rendition/ Torture/ Detention without Trial policies. Reagans support for the right wing death squads in Central and South America and his loosing the CIA on the cocaine smuggling and distribution role of the Iran/Contra policy whilst spin doctoring the benefits of the War on Drugs probably set the tone for the innate immorality of the Republicans under Bush II. The ability of the Christian Fundamentalists to hold their noses and avert their eyes over the maggoty carcase of Conservative morallity and continuously support them on “Family Values” will be an interesting question for historians to examine in the decades to come.
I would like to be a fly on the wall when Judgement Day arrives for these so called Christians.
Affiliations. The votes can’t be counted until election day.
In Georgia, 35% of early voters are African American, and 56% of the total are women. Obama has bigger leads amongst women than over all.
Good point. Apparently a Democrat is favoured to win his old House seat.
Apologies for those who have had comments in moderation for extended periods. Normal service will resume shortly.
Republican headquarters, Santa Rosa Beach, Florida – 72 hours before the polls CLOSE:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/72-hour-program.html
Gary Bruce:
“It’s interesting ltep that you defend Downer’s freedom to express an opposing opinion on the US election but seem to be questioning an opposing opinion made here by someone about Downer.”
I did no such thing. I just asked what it had to do with them losing last year, I don’t see any link at all.
Did someone mention Palin and a prank call.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/1/151958/557/831/649050
The transcript is even funnier because it has translations:
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2008/11/1/151958/557/577#c577
Such as the very start:
[SP Assist: This is Betsy [one of Palin's spin merchants].
MA: Hello, Betsy. This is Frank l’ouvrier (Frank the worker), I’m with President Sarkozy, on the line for Governor Palin.]
FRANK THE WORKER! LOL!
Julie,
I’d like to submit a prediction:
Obama 364 – Kerry States + Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada. My quirky guess is 1 vote from Nebraska.
As for the decider on count night, I’m thinking Colorado.
If you can read French (I can’t really), here is the article describing how the radio guys got through to Palin. It took them five days and they passed the Secret Service screen as well.
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/international/etats-unis/200811/01/01-35211-les-justiciers-masques-piegent-sarah-palin.php
It hardly seems worth it for that lame effort.
WTF? The secret service couldn’t figure out that the call came from Canada?
Or maybe they re-routed it somehow through Paris.
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cyberpresse.ca%2Finternational%2Fetats-unis%2F200811%2F01%2F01-35211-les-justiciers-masques-piegent-sarah-palin.php&sl=fr&tl=en&hl=en&ie=UTF-8
Translation of the site.
232, got it Peter
…..
Just a reminder to all – deadline for enteries or changes is 10pm Canberra time on Tuesday.
This comes out as something like;
The project took five days. Audette and Sébastien Trudel simply used “the usual channels”. They claimed to work for the French president who wanted a discussion with Mrs Palin. “We called his communication team, and there is also a verification done by the secret services, but we succeeded. For the details, I do not want to give all our secrets”, it explains.
The call could have been Osama bin Laden pretending to be Musharref, asking Palin to bomb Tora Bora where he knew OBL was hiding and she would have agreed.
I think that what we see as the problems of the Republicans (which we expect to be confirmed in a few days) can be traced to several points in history.
The shift from being the party of Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt goes back as far as the New Deal, when the Republicans were out-flanked by the Democrats’ strategy for responding to the Depression.
More significant was undoubtedly the Johnson administration’s removal of some of the more egregious forms of racial discrimination. The effect of this was to burn off Democrat support in the South and deliver the 1968 election to Nixon, and initiate a long-term shift of Party allegiance there. The Democrats have won only three presidential elections of the past ten, and then only by nominating (perceived) centrist southerners.
Since that time, a narrow focus on the impact of policy on votes, to the exclusion of broader considerations has led to the rise of Rovian operators and has narrowed the Republican support – numerically and geographically. If you’re trying to win the next election, then limiting the franchise, swift-boating opponents and pandering to the prejudices of otherwise apolitical citizens are sound tactics.
The perennial issue for a political party is to reconcile the need to win the next election and the need to govern in ways that will contribute to a cohesive community. In systems with voluntary voting, the need to motivate your own supporters requires product differentiation and demonising of the opposing side. Governing effectively demands a unifying approach.
The effectiveness of the Republican strategy for a long time is demonstrated by their long run of success. If it seems to have exhausted itself – as appears to be the case – then the scale of the economic and foreign policy problems in the US that have caused this shift, indicate just how entrenched were those attitudes that supported the GOP, during much of the last 40 years.
#90
Posted Saturday, November 1, 2008 at 4:09 pm | Permalink
“Ron -I for one am convinced that you have criticisms of Obama from the “left”
Thank you Expat Follower for your comment
In reply in my#171 , I listed 19 specific “left” issues Obama was deficent in to provide you with th overall non ‘left’ weakness’s I saw in Obama (with th first 3 three of th most important)
Unfortunately as William said in his #227 , some posts were in moderation for a time outside of his control (mine for 12 hours from 1.00am which i repeated at 8.00AM) but by time they’ve come out of moderation so many posts had since been posted it may hav been missed
IF you get a chanse you may care to glance at my #171 at th 19 adverse Obama issues I listed so th full sprectrum of th non ‘left’ views on Obama (for me) can be seen in perspective of someone believing Obama left defective & so having a somewhat diferent view to you
You said in #90 “I personally happen to think his positions are realistic given the mainstream fabric of American politics” ,……..IF you hav had time previously to be fully aware of all of these 19 points I listed in #171 , then your view of whats actualy achievable in “th mainstream fabric of American politics” is where we actualy difer (but consequentialy I can therefore understand th basis of your Obama support)
peter fuller
hear hear
They also won’t be able to use Rovian tactics in four years against a sitting president. All of this Wright, Ayers, socialist crap won’t get a run. They need a long rethink.
Similar deal here. Do you think the Liberals are going to waste so much time talking about unionists at the next federal election?
ShowsOn
The three biggest talking points the Libs had were (1) economic experience, (2) unionists, (3) fear of the unknown. All three are out the door. Once you get in, it’s your record that counts.
Yeah, I was surprised how little they had to run on.
Missouri has flipped back to Obama on Intrade.
Yep it’s the biggest hurdle for government’s after they lose (or in this case the parrt in power). Most of your arguements are one shot deals. Unless Ayers is made Minister for the Interior he’ll be forgotten in 4 years. Unless he makes everyone read the Little Book of Obama the socialist crack will be gone.
So 8 years is a likely scenario unless everything goes arse up. He doesn’t come across as a Carter.
My big 4 years out quesiton…Would he stick with Biden next time or get a young un in to get ready for 2016… (I recall FDR went through a few VPs so it wouldn’t be without complete precedent…)
“In Missouri, spokesman Justin Hamilton said Obama’s campaign had agreements with cab companies across the state to provide free Election Day rides to the polls for any voter who wanted one.”
Clever.
They started a joke, now the whole world’s laughing…
Yesterday, there were some worries here about one hugely “tightening” Reuters/Zogby poll given a scream-out on Drudge Report, which took their 3-day rolling average down from Obama +7 to +5. Guess what’s happened 24 hours later?
From Reuters a short time ago:
Barack Obama’s lead over Republican rival John McCain firmed marginally to 6 points with support for both candidates steady before Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.
Obama leads McCain by 50 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, up from a 5-point advantage on Saturday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
“There are two full days to go before Election Day and obviously anything can happen, but it is hard to see where McCain goes from here,” pollster John Zogby said.
He said the polling data over the weekend showed that both candidates appeared to be consolidating support among their core supporters — women and independents for Obama, older voters and conservatives for McCain.
National opinion polls all give the lead to Obama……..”
Again, Obama supporters, please don’t let any outliers between now and the election cause you any trepidation, particularly from these erratic national polls.
ShowsOn 221
The republican economic policies were highly unsuccessful under Reagan too – due to the excessive tax cuts debt built up until the stock market crash of 1987 as well deregulation leading to the collapse of all the Savings and Loans (equivalent to our Building Societies).
There were two reasons why the Reagan economic disaster of 1987 was not as bad as now:
1. global financial markets are much more interlinked now so a mess on Wall Street now wrecks banks globally
2. the Bush tax cuts went much further than Reagans – top rates now are only 2/3 what they were in the late 80s – and the debt is far worse too. Plus it is private debt as well as public, so there is no easy solution by raising taxes to pay off the public debt.
BTW, when you look back at economic policy in the 80s and earlier, you can see just how incredibly far to the right politics and economics policy has shifted under Bush and Howard. Economics shifted to the right under Reagan and Thatcher. Clinton halted that trend, but didn’t reverse it. It shifted even further right under Bush, Howard and co since. When people talk about reregulating financial markets as a result of these collapses being socialism, its realy quite false. Robert Menzies was well to the left of Kevin Rudd in terms of economic policy, never mind actual socialism.
Just to clarify the above, I meant that the reregulation being suggested now is nowhere near socialism. It would be still to the right of the conservative governments of the 60s and 70s.
Our friends at Zogby have reversed their one day trend to McCain. Today’s figures are 52/42 making it 49.5/43.8.
Did you get this from Drudge!?
Didn’t think so…
ShowsOn
Drudge is very downbeat at the moment. He couldn’t find any outlier polls so he reported the facts. It’s almost unheard of
The Repugs are so pathetic. Talk about clasping at straws.
Republicans try to use Oxford don to smear Barack Obama
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5063279.ece
Does this mean Costello is still unsure?
THIS is the image that made feel comfortable:
http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/426/trackers_1101_bothgallup.gif
Since the 27th, McCain hasn’t gone over 44.5%. The aggregate of the trackers is basically just a flat line for him that can’t even reach 45%.
The ever reliably unreliable Zogby at its best
One thing I found interesting on the Zogby breakdowns is that McCain is only leading Obama by 6% in armed forces households. I suppose they are younger and “blacker” than the general population, but for a “Navy hero” he’s not doing well with the military. And there’s plenty of military households in VA, NC and SC.
line of the night ShowsOn.
Yes but he made sure it was very small. The headline is a pic of BO looking every bit the evil warlord pointing with a caption “I will change the world”.
Very weird.
When Reagan spoke like that he was commended.
What exactly has happened to the Right in the U.S.?
Diogenes, Julie Bishop will be scared if that computer program sees the light of day!
Right, Juliem – after too much dithering, I have to make a stand… I’m with the respected & venerated Julian (#192) on 353 and no to Missouri. Happy to pick a distinguishing state to put Obi over the top, but am not sure how many other 353’s there are – let alone what state they have picked. Will do so by the deadline!
Ron #174 – there’s no doubt your views are thought out, whether or not people agree with you… I still don’t get the degree of enthusiasm differential on your side between Obi and Hilary – on balance, I suspect Hilary of being more populist and less principled than Obi in general (though there are exceptions like healthcare where she would be more to his left). At worst, close enough to not be sooo harsh on Obi? At any rate, I know we can join together on Tuesday at least to celebrate the end of the latest horrendous Republican era, which was truly necessary!
The Sarkosy prac joke on Palin just killed me, though how many others would have fallen for the prank similarly… quite a few, methinks – the only exception was not even hesitating with the faux Canadian PM’s name (for gawd’s sake, she oughta know that?!).
Found it interesting that Glen mentioned Lamar Alexander for ‘96 – he or Powell might have given Bill a run for his money rather than the cadaverous sell-out Dole (too many parallels between him and JohnnyMac this time around)…. unless someone comes out of nowhere, the only viable (if not probable) candidate is Romney mark #1 without the social flip-flops… if he can’t win due to his mormonism then that same base who denies him for that reason will end up promoting Huckabee or Palin. The fiscal conservatives need to reassert themselves somehow on the Repub party… though I spose anything is possible if Obi turns out more Carter like or the Dem legislature are allowed to overreach too extremely. That’s Obi’s biggest test, I reckon – but no matter what if they take Palin in 2012 would at worst be analogous to the last NSW state election?
Reagan did change th world for both th better His ’star wars ‘ plans , expanded military spending etc sent USSSR broke trying to compete and helped brake that totalitarian wicked dictatroial USSR Empire He then normalissed relations with Gorbywith a chanse of more freedom for russian peoples & sattellites (very worthwhile) but unfoertunately Putin is reversing freedoms now
Unforyunately Reagan also sent US debt up with crazy supply side economics , cut into social programs for less well off , caused crashs of part Banking sector with weakwened prudentials , then market meltdown , commenced th illegal Iran contra bit …but George Bush makes Reagan look not so bad comparatively
Expat @ 261,
This is what you are up against, between the two of you, one or the other needs to make a stand otherwise, if your number comes up snake eyes, you share the glory …
Stewart J O 353 N MO
ExPat Follower O 353 N MO
This ’state’ that puts Obi over the top is doing my head in!
I’m going to assume that all the Kerry states plus Iowa & New Mexico will be called for Obama based on exit polling as soon as polls close (that’s only 264). The last tranche of these will be the West Coast states (77) at 11pm Eastern Time. So, if nothing else is called by 11pm then it will be CA/WA/OR/HI that will seal it for Obi.
Can 83 non-Kerry EC states be called before 11pm? let’s see:
a) Georgia (15), Indiana (15) and Virginia (13) close at 7pm; Vermont (3) will be called for Obi based on exits
b) North Carolina (15) and Ohio (20) close at 7:30pm; nothing to add based on exits
c) Florida (27) and Missouri (15) at 8pm; Obi now up to 105 based on cumulative exits (inc PA – controversial?), assuming non of the Bush states above have been called
d) Colorado (9) at 9pm; Obi now up to 182 (inc NM – controversial?) – ditto same assumption
e) Iowa (7), Montana (3) and Nevada (5) at 10pm – they’ll give Iowa to Obi straight away (189) – ditto same assumption
The question becomes, which will Obama win and when can they be called? My best guesses below:
- Virginia will be called for Obi fairly quickly – we then “know” he’s won along with PA being called for him, but it won’t be official yet! But if we aren’t comfortable by 8pm eastern, then I’ll be losing my hair quickly!!!
- Ohio & FL will be called before 11 – bullish call on my part
- He needs another 20-ish called for him before 11….GO, IN, NC, MO, CO could all get him there in some combination (but I don’t think he’s gonna win GO, IN, MO). Can it be clear that CO is his before 11pm (possible), or that NC is his before 11pm (possible)
So, I reckon its gotta be between Colorado, Nth Carolina or the West Coast States (this would be simultaneous, so can’t pick one? Julie? Maybe Hawaii for sentimental reasons!).
My fellow 353’s, what do you say? If I can get in first, I guess I have to go with the West Coast swing, unless its taken – in which case Nth Carolina (not too many picks there, would guess!)
If y’all reckon I’m smoking pot somewhere in the above, pls tell me before Tuesday!!!
Without throwing in spanners, maybe the # republican seats in the senate might be a good tiebreaker as well?
Julie, I’m sure Julian has joined us elite prognosticators on 353?
Expat Follower
# 263 or #264 “Ron there’s no doubt your views are thought out, whether or not
people agree with you…”
#90 “Ron -I for one am convinced that you have criticisms of Obama from the “left”
Yes Expat Follower my #171 (or #174) did list 19 specific ‘left’ policys areas where I feel Obama is ‘left’ deficient with th first 3 (universal healthcare , Kyoto & centrist economics three of th most important of th 19)
MOST of those 19 Al Gore (my first preference) would also be in disagreement with Obama as I… Further most of those 19 both Hillary & Edwards (my 2nd & 3rd choises) variously would also disagree with Obama So you ar quite correct my criticisms of Obama ar from th “left” and “left” based , hence I’m informal
However obviuosly Obama supporters support Obama for different reasons (many probably not aware of th whole 19 list) but most believing supporting a Democrat itself is more than enough reason to avoid a further Republican Presidency with its numerous downsides And believing (correctly) with a Democrat President FA relations will be more inclusive especiallywith th EU and more humane domestic social policys generaly resulting I hav no problem and understand these broad reasons for there support of Obama over a Republican including yours I just happen to want more for my vote , those policys
My disagreements hav essentially been with either those Obam supporters who claimed (when I individualy posted singularly any of th 19) that they were inaccurate policy criticisms when they were not …..or those posters upset when I introduced character issues of Obama or those posters upset that Obama was criticised at all on any ‘left’ policy as if this was a criticism free Site
I believe my 19 list warrants my stanse from (for me) a ‘left’ policy viewpoint , however Obama will be elected and I hope he is an outstanding President despite my reservations because both th US and th world economy & world FA needs one after th disgraqce of Bush (And as an aside left person if I thought my non vote could elect a Republican then of course I’d change from informal & vote for Obama)
.
I’m in a few moderations for some reason trying today replying to you so not sure of correct post numbers on your screen
LOL @ Fox reading viewer emails.
Ronster
I note Hillary is 20% for SoS on Intrade. As if!
Diogenes
I thought you would hav been going through my 19 ‘left’ Obama deficiency areas in my #171 (or #174) with your scrupolous scalpels trying to find th slighest error I’d made in that 19 oint long post ….. but no instead you ar energised still about your Lady (Hillary) which surely is not as important as reel policys
Suspect she will remain in th Senate
expat, jj has 313 No Missouri and California. I’ve 375, Yes Missouri and Colorado. You can certainly say the west coast swing if you want, I’ve already got one of those [ CA/OR/WA/HI ] ….. unless I hear otherwise from you, I will assume from your post at 266 that is what you want …. and yes, I am up late tonight
……
expat, having everyone guess a 3rd item this late in the piece wouldn’t work as we couldn’t reach that many people in time to submit guesses … some of the players aren’t regular posters and just transit in and out …..
most common guess for state to put Obama over the top was Colorado, picked by 9 out of our 30 players so far …….
Ronster
I never saw them. Were you in moderation AGAIN, you bad man.
Looks like I either agree with you on most (1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 18, 19) or don’t know/care enough/equivocal about the rest. I don’t actively support his decision on any of them.
Are you happy now? BTW You’ll have to vote for Nader if you want someone who agrees with you on all of them. It’s quite funny that Obi is getting slammed as a pinko commie in the US when most of his policies would make John Howard blush.
Okay, I’ll bite for Julie @ 63’s challenge.
1. 311 EC votes (being conservative/pessimistic. I think NC will be ball-tearingly close with O maybe a tick over 50% to take it. I’ve been saying all year that Obama can’t win Florida and so I shouldn’t back out on my convictions now, even though the number-crunchers would doubt me.)
2. No. At an imprecise guess, lose by 1-2%.
3. As Expat Follower has identified, we need some clarification of the definition of the state that puts him over the top. Do you mean the tipping point state as defined in 538.com? Or do you mean the state that is called for him on the night (by which news service/body?) that takes him over 270 EC votes, on top of the states previously called for him on the night? If the former, Virginia; if the latter, doubtless depends on how bullish the news service you’re relying on is, but I’d have to go with weight of numbers and say California.
Expat @ 266,
By much the same reasoning I picked California as the state to put O over the top. They’ll call it on exit polls whereas Colorado will at least require a real count, which ought to take more than an hour longer.
Still I am a mere 352er, not a 353er like you.
It’s still plain sailing in Sundays polls so far.
Zogby National Obama +6%
Mason-Dixon VA Obama +3% (MD is always 2-3% Repug biased)
Des Moines Register IA Obama +17%
Mason-Dixon NV Obama +4%
No MOE shifts anywhere
Colorado Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Obama +5
Ohio Columbus Dispatch Obama +6
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama +7
And Franken is ahead of Coleman by 4%.
SimonH,
I believe juliem’s definition of the “state that puts O over the top” is based on the order in which states are “called” by CNN.
I personally think California is a no-brainer for this.
(Then again I also thought Hillary was a no-brainer for the nomination, etc, etc).
It all depends on how big the margin is by the time it gets to the West Coast. CNN may end up ‘calling it’ before Calfornia even closes. You never know.
And I should also add one other thing arising from the end of Expat Follower’s 266: any service that calls a state for a candidate, before a single vote has been counted, should be roundly ignored. If there’s evidence that exit polls are significantly more reliable than before-the-fact polls, I’ve not seen it.
I appreciate that where the swing/numbers are very clear cut, you can validly call a state after just a few thousand votes; but if you’re calling a state on opinion polls, you might as well just call it now.
Simon 282
“but if you’re calling a state on opinion polls, you might as well just call it now.”
ok, if you dare me I’ll call California now.
Obama
Dare me to take a stab at Utah?
Just looking through the RCP battle grounds
It hasn’t always been the case, but currently every “toss up” listed has less than 50% for the current leader and a spread within MOE. The leaning states are all 50% or better with a safe spread.
With a day left, I’d say that means either candidate could still grab any or all of the toss ups but the others are tied down.
Obama’s range is between 311 and 406 and McCain is 132 to 227.
Dyno – what combo of states gets you to 352… the only way I can get it is to give Obi neither of NC or Georgia, one of either Missouri/Indiana and one of either Nth Dakota/Montana…. mate, if you pull that off then you really deserve some serious bragging rights!!
Simon, to follow on from BigBlindDave, we’ve gotta go with CNN as the universal point of reference (for better or for worse)… I’m sure they called a few of the primaries within 5 seconds of polls closing and would therefore be expecting them to call Vermont for Obi and Kentucky for cadaverboy at 7:00:05. If even an iota of doubt, they tend not to want to make fools of themselves by projecting too early. But, am expecting them to call the West Coast swing at 5 seconds past 11… if they don’t, then my logic goes out the window!!
Julie, pls check what I have as post 192 from JJulian in this thread… looks like he’s changed to 353? Absolutely fair enough on introducing any new measures at this stage. Curious where the consensus is on #repub senators just out of curiosity (easier to think this way then have to factor in the likes of Lieberman/Sanders)… I’m thinking 41/42 but would be very happy with 37/38!!! As long as that godly Elizabeth Dole loses. I’m with Glen on hoping a couple of the more moderate repub senators survive – need someone to run in 2012 that isn’t a redneck whackjob!!!
We need something to obsess over after this election… I think Wolfiebaby is a total lightweight, though enjoy some of his Situation Room commentators (Tobin and Castellanos, ironically enough); I HATE what Brokaw has done with Meet the Press post-Russert (not to mention his crapola moderation of debate #2)… any predictions on who should get the MtP gig permanently… Chuck Todd? I suspect not Matthews or Olbermann!!! Really dig Mike Murphy and Ron Brownstein on MtP when they are on.
Everyone is asleep in Aus, no doubt – so will stop (the Grand Prix finale about to start as well). Just wanted to suggest that he who gets the comment number that corresponds to Obi’s final count should get a special booby prize… my post at #286 above covers the Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + Virginia + Colorado result!!
Yours sincerely in pathetic sadness…
SimonH @ 276,
Sorry should have clarified for your and some others benefit. In earlier posts over recent weeks, I have but not in the last 10 days or so.
I meant state that puts him over the top based upon the tv coverage, specifically CNN as that is the channel I will be watching on Wednesday. Some others might watch Fox or a different channel, but I’ll be glued to CNN. I know different places might have a different order to call the states in too so while others out there know I’ve said CNN before, for you since you had not heard that, you’ll have to take my word for it.
Btw, I read all the way through your post and wrote down California for that question
…..
Re 282,
Simon, don’t know how much you’ve been paying attention to either PB posts over the last 2 months or so or reading the various news websites. In no particular order: an Irish betting agency (local equivelent I suppose of the TAB) declared the election in late September/early October refusing to take any more bets and paying out on those it already had on the books; a magazine/newspaper that prints a biweekly issue which straddles their printing cycle has already declared Obama the winner (a la Truman/Dewey overtones if they are wrong) and finally, the US comic strip Doonesbury has already printed and put out to publishers their election day after strip which discusses an Obama victory.
I’ll declare New York for Obama right here and now
…… Ok, we’ve got California and New York off of the hook 
Expat follower @ 285,
This is the post you refer to
This was your post above
jj can correct me if he’s changed his guess but I quite clearly read that as electoral vote.com’s EV guess ….
NBC news in the US is hanging out for numbers of 286 for Obama
….. massively underguessing the momentum imho 
Tuscon’s newspaper endorses Obama. Tucson is the second largest city in Arizona, following only Phoenix ….. not sure if the Phoenix paper has made an endorsement yet, does anyone know?
Stevens will go one way or the other
I*iot …… M*ron …… L*ser ….. woah, wait, I like that last one
McCain in new trouble it seems. The allegations, if true, are new and weren’t turned up at the time of the original Keating5 story.
Something to keep in mind when the exit polls start coming out on Wednesday morning:
As always, Jason Linkins hilarious summary of the Sunday talk shows:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/tv-soundoff-sunday-talkin_n_140103.html
You’ve got to hand it to the Old Man. He’s really working hard. On Monday, he’ll appear in SIX states, and Palin will be in FIVE.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/where-they-are-today-and_n_140202.html
juliem but then you would have to call Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Utah, Wyoming and Nebraska and Idaho for McCain already…that’s just stupid while we can take educated guesses but dont let hubris take hold.
lol hubris again.
Glen, I’m willing to call all of those excepting Louisana and Nebraska (splits their EV, Obama likely to get Omaha) for McCain
….
I’m full of good will today
Julie @ 292
Further to your comment about Chuck Todd at NBC: Here’s his cogent take on Colorado which is doubly sweet for me because my rightwing Repub brother lives there. The salient point is Todd’s assertion that the Repubs winning coalition, The Southern Strategy, is now “inoperative” (to use a favourite term employed by THE great Southern Strategist, R. M. Nixon):
“Colorado: What a transformation. The Democratic dominance is taking place so fast that it appears the state forgot it was supposed to stop in “toss-up” land on its way from Red to Blue status. Democrats could win another House seat in the state, another Senate seat and see Obama carry the state. If I were the Republican Party, I’d make Michigan and Colorado my petri dishes for experiments to get the party’s groove back. Until the GOP can appeal to secular independents in the West and working class Democrats in the Midwest, they are going to be a minority party. The party’s comeback should start in one of these two states because they are microcosms of the GOP’s issues.”
RE: my entry in Great Guesstimate Contest. You are spot on, as always, that I am standing pat on 313 EV’s, No Mizzou, and California.
ExPat Follower, I’ve been wracked by too many over-optimistic expectations for too many past elections, including K’07 final 2PP margin of victory tightening in the final week to 5.4 over Howard, which is close to what I expect Obama’s margin will be over McCain. What an immensely proud feeling it would be for my old country to follow the sagacious voters of OZ almost precisely one year later.
Remember this one?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
I knew if I searched long enough and hard enough, I would find someone who would make a US equivelent for this election that was of at least as good or better quality
….
Enjoy
Jeepers, Julie, I’d never seen the K’07 one before—what a little bewdy!
My Muchas Gracias for the links and for your unflagging good humour throughout this past month or so.
jj. it sure is a good place for the political soul to be when we can smile about politics again?
Watch Live Obama/Biden Rallies Throughout The Day
Check back here to watch live streaming video of Obama and Biden rallies throughout the day.
Biden in Tallahassee FL 12:45 pm EST
Obama in Columbus, OH 1pm EST
Biden in Gainesville, FL 4:30 EST
Obama in Cleveland OH 5:15 pm EST
Biden in Daytona FL 7:30 pm EST
Obama in Cincinnati OH 9:10 pm EST
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/31/watch-obama-live-in-iowa_n_139694.html
Here’s an interesting article. More Americans now get their campaign news from the internet than newspapers (33% to 29%). The internet was only 10% in 2004. TV is still number one.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1017/internet-now-major-source-of-campaign-news
For a compelling analysis explaining how the MSM are “undermisestimating” the Obama vote, check out this post from John Nail on Talking Points Memo site:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/jnail/2008/11/what-the-latest-state-polls-ar.php
Prediction
As th sole regular Non Obama supporter in th flock here , I will make a specific range of e/v and State predictions using odds methodology
Firstly , tink th pollstars generally hav been wrong all year on turnout and that likely voters will be at least 1% higher
Secondly , expect small Bradleys probably in areas of say CA and MA…and larger reverse Bradleys in say VA , MS & AL However if high turnouts vs Pollstars dissections then more difficult to identify
Unwinnable States for Obama that conversally numerous US pundits say for ar in play : GA , WV , AR , MT (and ND most unlikely)
E/V’s guaranteed (100/0% chanse Obama ) 311
E/V’s variously marginol …FL , IN , NC & MO (64 e/v’s)
These marginals warrant individual general assessment :
FL (70/30% for Obama) should be naturally more marginal than this … but th (“R” brand ) bailout hurt retirees & Obama’s promise to part drill offshore both added votes
NC (54/46%chnse for Obama) reason: reely a red State chance for Obama on changed demographics & large assumed black vote turnout) ,
IN (52/48% chance for McCain , reason a normative conservative unwinnable red State but fluke is that Obama comes from IL & th very pro Obama IL Media beams into th west of IN helping make IN quite Obama competitive , and also underestimated “likely voters” turnout will make it close)
MO 50/50% cliffhanger ..to split would normaly go with incumbency & narrowing non wish t change but I’ hav to assume my suspicions ar correct that Pollstars in US hav undertated likely voters by about 1% and if so MO is th State frankley it would now be most decisive in , so weighting that likely voters understatement makes MO 50.5/49.5% chanse for Obama
These 4 marginal States equal an Obama 364 final e/v total on break odds
A probable over th odds bet with value with 364 from Bookies but would need a layoff on say CA as th tipping point , and everyone then to hope bookies do not 100% clean up everyones money by a very unlikely % chanse E/V split of either NE or ME
Jjulian or Juliem – I was just reading the talkingpointsmemo. What is GOTV?
Get Out The Vote
Derrrrr – Thanks Dario. My brother called me a geriatric today so hope he is not reading this or it will be confirmed!
Has anyone heard whether the Rev. Wright ads being run until the election by the GOP Trust are having an effect? I’ve given up Fixed News to keep the blood pressure in check but haven’t seen anything about the ads on CNN so far.
I think at this late stage it will be difficult to determine what works or not. Haven’t seen too many media articles about the ads so I don’t think they are getting that wide a circulation.
Final Gallup national poll before the election has the same margin for both their LV models, with Obama +11 (MOE 2%):
Obama 53
McCain 42
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_obama_53_mccain_42_gallup_1.php
Crikey has just come through here so I’ll have a look to see if there is anything from Guy Rundle. His reports have been great so far.
310,
Ron if I understand you correctly, you are going 364 with California as the state to put him over the top (based upon the order that the states are called in for Obama on election night. (and Yes on Missouri)
If that is wrong (again, apologies, I’ve a hard time understanding your posts), please correct me by posting numbers that are different.
Summary – 364 Y Missouri California
A very encouraging Gallup.
Juliem,
my tip is for BarryO to get 349 ECVs and Cal-eye-forn-eye-ay to put him over, cheers,
Dario, that Great Gallup Poll has a stable mate!
From Huffington Post a short time ago:
“With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.
As the number of undecided voters has dwindled, so has the number that says their minds can still change. More than nine in 10 of each candidate’s voters now say they have made up their minds about who to vote for and are not likely to change. Just seven percent of Obama voters and 8 percent of McCain voters say they still might change their minds.”
I think this might help answer BH’s question in comment #313 about Rev. Wright ads. Of course, a major problem with Rev ads is that they give proof that Obama is not a muslim, which some whacky Americans still believe.
As Paul Keating once said, “what a beautiful set of numbers”!
an amazing gallup. welcome to blowout town. a fitting and stinging rebuke of 8 years of repugnant dubya
Intrade’s also gone the Obama boost again today:
Obama up 3 points to over 89, and McCain down 2.5 points to 11.
seanofperth
Succinctly and elegantly expressed, Seano!
juliem you sound like Michelle Obama saying she was never proud of America until Obama won the nomination for the Democrats.
We shouldnt feel proud in politics only when our side wins.
I wouldn’t feel ashamed. Just as if I was an alien on the planet Stupid.
Jjulian – hadn’t thought about the Christian aspect of the ads. You are right – there is a reverse side to it. I feel a bit better, thanks.
538.com now has Obama’s lead down from earlier today- what would be doing that.
Updates still needed from a few people out there if you are still tuned into this channel?
….
Glen and WorkToRule, a summary of your guesses. If either one wishes a change, post it before 10pm Tuesday. Otherwise, if your number comes up, you share the glory since your tiebreakers are the same.
Glen O 291 N MO CO
worktorule O 291 N MO CO
Evan14, I still don’t have the state that you think will put Obama over 270 [ I'm using the count as delivered by CNN to get this answer ]. Right now, you’re on the same numbers with someone else and they’ve picked Virginia as the state that will put Obama over 270.
StewartJ and William, same as previous paragraph. I still need the state that you think will put Obama over the top.
StewartJ, your competition has said the quad of CA/OR/WA/HI for putting Obama over the top (meaning that any one of those 4 qualify for an answer). You could select the same if you don’t mind sharing with someone else, or just pick a different state from those 4? Up to you
.
William, if you can’t decide and our number comes up, I can just use the fact that I put in 375 first as a tie breaker. We’ve both picked Missouri for Obama but everyone 364 and above has done so
324,
Glen, after 8 years of incompetence in Washington, you are not getting me down this close to the coup de grace
……..
Sorry, but in my corner I don’t feel the emotion of pride when the administration in Washington acts against my beliefs
.
Possum, don’t know where you have been the last few days/weeks? Get the remote warmed up and the alcohol on ice up in our corner of the tree
William, I’ve said Colorado as the state to put Obama over 270.
juliem
I miscalculated mine. Instead of 293 it should be 353. Just joking. It should be 292.
got it dio
This refers to a fascinating study which showed that Gore supporters expected to be devastated if they lost but weren’t when it actually happened. What’s even more fascinating is that they falsely remembered being devastated three months later on the day the Supreme Court stole our bloody victory. The same was true of Bush supporters replacing ecstatic for devastated.
coup de grace???
McCain is nothing like George W Bush Juliem he deserved it more in 2000 and if he doesnt win he’ll be one of the best losing candidates who would have make great Presidents.
If as expected Obama wins, politics will have changed to a competition not based on the values of ones ideas but how well somebody speaks and how good a PR campaign they can run. Obama has not run on the issues, Rudd didnt either.
If he wins Obama’s victory will spell the death of substance over style.
Can’t agree. The guy has changed positions on so many things, and just seems flaky these days.
And Obama hasn’t?
Havent you ever heard of compromise something McCain has done by working with both parties???
When has Obama ever had to compromise other than putting Biden on the ticket!
Obama has yet to even complete his first term in the Senate and he’s on track to win the election. I for one would laugh if the Bradley effect happened!
Glen
He had to be nice to Hillary. That was a compromise.
And Obama has had a huge number of Republicans endorse him, Powell being the most important. They can see his bipartisan potential.
Not like McCain, no. The guy is a shadow of his former self in 2000.
He didn’t change his positions to compromise in getting things passed, he did it to try and get elected.
If McCain is so experienced he sure isn’t showing it. I cringe everytime I see him give a speech or make an appearance. Don’t worry though Glen, according to him the Republicans are going to win.
I see Cheney delivered the kiss of death to McCain yesterday.
He wasnt nice to Clinton, and he didnt compromise by putting her on the ticket.
He has no potential to reach across party lines, he has never done it in his short political career why would he do so now.
The media should have done its job and discounted Obama from the get go since he has virtually no experience, but they backed him over Clinton in the primaries, and has since not jumped off the bandwagon.
I hate to say it but if Obama was not bi-racial he wouldnt have stood a chance against Clinton or anybody else considering how inexperienced he is. But because he is different and can speak well the media fell over backwards to support him.
Tell me Glen, name one presidential candidate, running for the first time, that has had experience at being president.
This experience argument is such a crock. You gain experience by being in the job.
Clinton was said to “not have experience” when he was first running.
That was stupid she’s served in the Senate longer than Obama and actually done more whilst she’s been there that counts as experience.
You gain experience in politics by doing something, not voting present all the time and not drafting bills. Obama is a light weight and the media dont seem to care?
What has Obama done???
How the heck did he win the nomination for Senator????
Obama has the least experience of any Presidential candidate since Lincoln.
Glen has an obsession with experience.
“Obama has the least experience of any Presidential candidate since Lincoln.”
Yeah, and wasnt he a dud.
Morning everyone – sorry Jules & JJ… my dyslexia is setting in with JJ’s prediction – of course he was referring to another entity’s prediction and not his own. I understand the natural pessimism, and am now suddenly worried about Ohio & Virginia on the Sunday polls and suspect the Missouri/Georgia/Nth Carolina hopes are really just that… oh well, at worst that still means BO should exceed 300?
Glen, give it a break with the sour grapes? Even though you might be correct about McCain at his core at some point in time in the past, the campaign he has run has been pathetic low-road run-to-the-right Dole ‘96 nonsense. Obama’s has been far more consistent and substantive and with more grounding in actual facts than made-up crapola. Its fair enough to question how effective he’s likely to be based on his supposed experience, but its more than fair enough to question how effective Hilary/McCain were likely to be based on the populist/base nonsense they were prepared to trundle out – and on the physical evidence of judgements and decisions made through their campaigns itself… it depends on how you want to define ’substance’… if its merely by reference to a cv independently of what one is saying now, that’s not a very persuasive argument? I’ll go with consistency, fact-based policy assertions, and erring on the intellectual high-road side as a better indicator of substance – and Obi has more than passed the test here (let alone beat Hilary and JohnnyMac hands down)
Zogby: the hilarity continues
national
O: 50.9 (49.5)
M: 43.8 (43.8)
Remember that 1 day poll that showed McCain ahead, the latest shows Obama ahead 54-41…hence the tracker creeping up.
oh and zogby state polls:
PA
O: 53.7
M: 40.0
OH
O: 50.2
M: 43.9
VA
O: 50.7
M: 44.6
NV
O: 50.7
M: 42.9
FL
O: 47.5
M: 46.2
MO
O: 47.4
M: 45.7
NC
O: 47.7
M: 49.3
IN
O: 43.9
M: 49.1
By being an Illinois state senator for 8 years?
zombie
Those Zogby polls are a crock as usual. I’d be happy if they were all on the money but Zogby just tosses a coin. His national polls are pitiful.
McCain by 5% in IN. Obama by 13% in PA.
Juliem
My latest prognostication.
Obama to win Missouri.
EV 349
After studying the time differences I think Nevada will take him over the top.
expat, you mentioned “morning”, just out of curiousity, where do you live? sorry if you’ve mentioned that already, if you did, I forgot it
…… i’ve no room in my head right now for much beyond election news 
…..
Got a funny feeling about Pennsylvania.
An Cu, from your post earlier on this thread I don’t recall that you said whether or not you thought Obama would win Missouri? if you can update me with that before 10pm on Tuesday, please
….. thanks 
got it enjaybee …..
My changed prediction (from Obama 322)
Obama 311 (gains OH, VA, NM, CO, NV, IA)
McCain 227 (gets within 1 in PA)
There seems to be a narrowing on PB. Is it statistically significant?
#357, injuddstree, I’ve got that down now but perusing others who are also at 311, can you please pick a state that will put Obama over the top (270+) with EV’s? unless you want to share the glory, you need to pick one not already called by Al or SimonH. As it stands now, if CA is the state, they will share the win if the EV total is 311. If OR, WA or HI put him over the 270 mark, Al gets the honor. Not sure about yours until you let me know?
Cheers
Al O 311 N MO CA/OR/WA/HI
SimonH O 311 N MO CA
injuddstree O 311 N MO ??
No, GG, it is not. I’ve got 33 players (of which you aren’t one yet, want in?) and I’ve had 3 or 4 changes today to EV totals so far. Half each way
…..
We’re smiling all the way to the White House
Haha no worries. I’ll say NV.
My brain is telling me not to reduce my prediction. In fact, my brain tells me it will be 340+. But my heart is telling me not to be so cocky. Same as Oz 07.
Also, any chance of a list with names and predictions so far?
Some of us are just Biden our time, Juliem
JulieM,
My comments are merely observational.
I have always found predictions difficult, especailly about the future.
Is that the White House or the Out House? The distance is not too far between the two.
Just looking at Ronald Reagan’s 1980 figures earlier:
50.7% of the vote
Won 44 states
489 ECV to 49
Could history repeat with Obama, just maybe?
Julie, I’m in Sth Africa… where the politics is so depressing that we’re forced to look elsewhere for our fix!
Three weeks ago I would’ve said yes. Now, IMO, I think McCain has more of a chance of winning than Obama winning 400+.
Injuddstree @ 361,
See my post #88 this same thread. I’m not going to post another update and clog William’s bandwidth, excepting a few changes and a few new entrants, that list is still 90 to 95% accurate …..
Cheers
No worries, if you want in, nlt 10pm Canberra time Tuesday evening …..
GG
Any tips for tomorrow? I still like Zipping but the scientist in me can’t go past Alessandro Volta (I visited his lab in Pavia).
expat, how are the cricket test team travelling over there?
Diogenes,
Nom De Jeu
Mad Rush
Gallopin
You and other PBers can now safely eliminate the above from consideration.
Cheers
GG
We really need Glen to tip a few to cut down the numbers. Adam hasn’t been The Accurate One recently either so he could provide a few more kisses of death.
Honolulu would be the omen bet for Obama and C’est la Guerre for McCain.
Are any Obama supporters worried about the Bradley effect?
I dont believe McCain will win but are any of you worried?
Drew 1-1 against India in India and beat England at home earlier this year… have a good bowling line-up esp with Dale Steyn… I think they on paper should give the Aussies a good run this summer. Its all psychological with them and the Aussie team, though… Aussie team I think coming off its 13 year dominance of the test game, methinks (not that I support SA in a million yrs!!!)
By the way, an American gal who has gotten into cricket plus obsessed with politics…. quite the fantasy proposition you are miss J!
Glen
The Bradley Effect doesn’t exist in the 21st Century. The Reverse Bradley does though (well we’ll find out in a few days).
Diogenes,
If you ever see a horse called Hubris or Hubrication you will know that I have an ownership share.
If you enjoyed the Grand Prix yesterday and watched the Ryder Cup, then I think I have a new hero…
In my (albeit limited) experience, racists have no problem stating what they mean. In fact, I’m having a hard time thinking of any racist who would dilly-dally with such niceties that the “Bradley Effect” implies.
I don’t think that *if* Obama gets 50.7% of the vote, that it will be spread out in such a way that he will get 44 states. I simply can not see him getting much beyond what I’ve picked which is 375 (RCP current no tossup map + Missouri and Indiana). Beyond that lot, it will be icing on the cake as none of the other states have been even in with a sniff on the RCP map all campaign … I know some of the polling has been close in recent days but if it was reliable enough to trust, the RCP map would move it …..
Glen, I was worried until about mid September, not any more though, not by a long shot ….
Glen no. I don’t believe ‘the Bradley effect’ and think it’s just wishful thinking from desperate Republicans.
I’m more concerned about the “injuddstree effect*”, a statistical phenonmenon where, despite all reliable and consistent polling and anecdotal data, I can’t be confident until I actually see it.
*See: 2007 Australian Federal Election
Is the sun rising tomorrow covered by this injuddstree effect?
I’ve been true blue Aussie since I met my husband in 1994. We’ve been married since 1996 but because of custody issues with the 2 children from my first marraiage, couldn’t leave the states for here until they were “of age”. We’ve been here at one address or another since early December 2004.
Never liked baseball at all, loved football though (gridiron) college moreso than professional. Very quickly picked up AFL and cricket
….. I know a good game when I see it 
…. [ apologies in advance if you're not an AFL man ]
I’m serious on Wednesday; I told the kids no cartoons when they get home, CNN and election stuff until I say I’ve had enough and I’ve purchased microwave meals for the 3 of us (my husband is away on business at the moment) for dinner on Wednesday so I don’t have to cook anything and don’t have to leave the house for pickup of take away or fast food …..
Problem though with computers at my house on Wednesday. Our laptop died over the weekend and it is fixable but not, unfortunately, in time for the election. Our desktop is in another part of the house from the TV. That means my PB time on Wednesday once the coverage starts will be quick ins and outs when I can manage until much later on in the day when results are much clearer ….. I bloody wish I had the laptop and could do “live blogging” as the TV was going in the background but it isn’t going to happen at my house on Wednesday
….
As Nate Silver said, in one of many prescient quotes;
The frequency with which the Bradley effect is mentioned by right-wing commentators is proportional to Obama’s lead in the polls.
GG
According to Google, you are the only English speaking person to use the term “hubrication” so I’d pick that one. And before calling me a hubricator, allow me to point out that I only tipped Obama to get 292 EVs.
Timing here in SA is useful – starts at midnight… have warned the missus that I’ll be spending Tue night on the couch watching CNN… she didn’t seem too devastated to hear this, though…
How many Obama supporters originally backed Clinton???
If anything she is the biggest loser of this election, who’d have thunk it last year.
I will be away from tomorrow and so will say this a bit early. Whatever the result on Wed, we all owe a big thank you to Juliem for her sources of info, indefatigability and amazing good humour. I think you should be nominated for Australian of the Year for your efforts on this blog and on the campaign frontlines. Bravo!
Diogenes,
As a Doctor, can you explain why we retain so much trivia. I know I know nothing about many things. Yet, I can pass muster on topics I know nothing about with no more than buzz words and a few connecting homilies.
Being wise is a Con!
I doubt i would have said it last year, but what i wouldnt give for Clinton to be President instead of Obama….’shakes head’…
EF
Is there going to be anything to watch at that hour? I thought there would only be real coverage when the first polls close.
and you don’t count yourself amongst that group? if you don’t, how would you self identify your politics? Cheers
I’m one.
For people only with radio, I heard this morning that NewsRadio will be broadcasting National Public Radio live from 11 AM Eastern.
Buy an extra long LAN or modem cable and move the desktop
Keep trying, Glen baby… Clinton is 90% close to Obama, just as McCain is 90% close to GWB. I think you’re still sour that Santos beat Vinick!! I won’t give you too hard a time over your initial backing of Rudy though (guffaw)
Dio – probably not, but i ain’t missing a second of the buildup and everything… been waiting a long time for this!
I did, but wasn’t following it all that closely until very late in the primaries
I heard SBS will run coverage from 2:30pm to 6:30pm.
Juliem I would find myself a moderate Republican.
I dont especially like how much of the Republican Party has turned into a Bible Basher club so on most social issues i would differ with them but on economic and foreign policy issues i would be very much in agreement.
Juliem, i dont know if you knew but i originally backed Rudy Giuliani to begin with.
I would say Obama has an 80% chance of winning it just depends whether it will be a rout or not. I hope that it isnt a rout but not close enough to get people miffed.
Rush and Bill are going to have a lot to say in the next 4 years.
juliem I’m socially quite far to the left (support gay marriage, voluntary euthanasia, strong gun control, legalised abortion, increased intake of humanitarian refugees etc.) In the Australian spectrum I’d probably fit with the Greens but can’t take them seriously as a political force.
As far as the US election goes I think George Bush is a shame to all Americans and it truly is beyond me how he could’ve won an election. If I had to vote it’d be for Obama.
Having said that I’ve always found something discomforting and untrustworthy about him and found Hillary Clinton to be a more compelling candidate overall. John McCain is not right at all.
Weighted averages for national polls released 01/11 (11/01) have Obama up around the 51.5% mark- if that holds on election day it will be a BIG result in American election terms.
michael @ 389, do you want into the contest? thanks for the kind words
. I’ve got a Republican relative and have learned to let the right wing comments go through to the keeper …… probably keeps me sane here too as there have been several times I’ve wanted to say something and have typed up words and thought “no I shoudn’t do that” and have deleted it all out before posting it [ William probably appreciates that self control as I didn't have it in the leadup to the Federal election ].
anyways, enough from me, thanks for what you said and I love Australia and can’t wait to see the final nail in the triumverate of Bush/Blair/Howard – the Iraq war was NOT necessary …………………….
Dario,
No, I’m home alone and I don’t do computer hardware ……..
What would you say the floor of each parties’ vote is (that is, the absolute minimum vote they’d receive)? Would it be fair to say they’re relatively even?
ltep,
COOL ….. you are a lot closer to me than I thought …. don’t know why I had you pegged for the “other side” ….. sorry, mate
…
what are you doing on Wednesday?
Bummer… well maybe you could move the TV
Working and studying (though I presume I won’t be able to resist ‘peaking’ at political websites)… it’s a tough life!
Juliem, Bush didnt get defeated, he won 2 elections.
But Bush has most likely cost McCain the Presidency twice.
Blair wasnt rejected by the public and he retired.
‘the Iraq war was NOT necessary’ – so it would have been better leave Saddam in power?
I didnt think we should have had to have gone in in 2003. We should of gone in in 1991.
Glen, in that case should the US invade North Korea and any other country with leaders they don’t approve of?
Dario, it isn’t quite as bad as it might sound though …. the computer and TV are in adjoining rooms and I can and will be able to hear the TV quite clearly while at the computer but I can’t see it so its just a matter of what I want to see visually or not and most of it, I probably will want to see ….. but the TV with the cable and the computer aren’t at different ends of the house nor on different floors or anything …
I hope one day Korea will be one country.
North Korea
Zimbabwe
Sudan
Somalia
Iran
Are all countries that we all wish had different leaders or better governments but we cant do anything about it.
But Glen you’re saying we (that is, the US and Australia I’m assuming) should’ve invaded Iraq in 1991 due to Saddam. Does that mean we should invade North Korea, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Somalia and Iran?
Glen, you need to fish in another pond if you are trolling on the Iraq war … this is not a Bush love-in, in fact it is the opposite
…….
again, as I’ve noted before in this campaign, nice try
Simply because of his age, Obama’s CV is a bit shorter than most, but Garfield and Hoover, for two, hardly had stellar experience and amongst unsuccessful candidates (George McGovern) and unsuccessful primary candidates (Al Gore 1988) there are plenty more of a similar level.
It simply isn’t as unprecedented as some would like to think.
I am not trolling i am expressing my own opinions, you dont agree with them that’s all. That doesnt equate to trolling unless then you believe your own comments saying ‘the Iraq war was NOT necessary’ was trolling.
I know Poll Bludger is predominately left wing, i have been on here for some time i assure you.
I think ill have something to celebrate when Key hopefully gets up in New Zealand on the 8th.
juliem,
I always disagree with Glen. However, board hoggers like yourself should be looking in the mirror first before they accuse others of being trolls.
We should have learned how to use prepositions properly.
glen, since at the moment we are celebrating GB’s political demise, that gives us the freedom to complain about his policies. you are perfectly within your rights to say opposite but I’m not going there to talk about it with you
In 1991 we should have gone in.
Happy now Martin B?
lol
PPP polls
Pennsylvania: Obama +8
Obama 53
McCain 45
Virginia: Obama +6
Obama 52 (52)
McCain 46 (43)
Ohio: Obama +2
Obama 50 (51)
McCain 48 (44)
North Carolina: Obama +1
Obama 50 (49)
McCain 49 (48)
Montana Obama +1 (!)
Obama 48
McCain 47
Ron Paul 4
Florida
Obama 50
McCain 48
Juliem you have a right to complain about his policies and him being unpopular with more than 60% of the populus but he is not and never faced demise, he won 2 elections.
One thing is for sure George will write a book, but he won’t edit it lol!
One worries about Obi turning out like Carter/Blair – and his biggest challenge will be to not let the Dem Houses of Congress go ballistic… but there’s no reason I can think why Hilary would have been any better at this – in fact, i suspect Obi has a better chance of forging bipartisanship than Hilary could have (for historical reasons).
Similar fears around Rudd in Aus turning out to be a Blair. But he was a better bet than Beazley, let alone Howard… and likewise for Obi vis-a-vis Hilary and McC (or any repub for that matter). I wonder how many people who prefer Hilary to Obama would have also preferred Kim to Kevin – you’d think the majority? I’m quite happy that both Kev and Obi won thru, and they’ve both done enough reassuring things to give one some confidence. But even if they both turn out to be Blairs, its still better than the alternative… but why not aim high at the outset – these are the right bets to go with if we’re aiming high (within each party and also between parties)?
Glen – I’ll give you this… the bloodbath that would have been a Hilary-Rudy contest would have been something to behold!!! I think Hilary would have crushed him, but it was not to be… Hilary running her originally crafted campaign against a McCain 2000 would have been quite interesting too, but suspect the economy would have sent things her way in the end as well. She must feel JUST terrible at losing the primary – but its her own fault and Obi deserves the credit for beating her out for it.
In 2004 polls had W behind by 15 points in PA and came within 2-3. But that was 2004, not 2008.
Actually it is the media’s fault for her losing the primaries. They were Obama supporters from the get go, she never stood a chance against that sort of opposition.
Julie, for future reference, I have a bee in my bonnet about people using the word “troll” to shout down minority viewpoints.
can someone explain how IBD/TIPP actually make a living???
Maybe you just need a mirror
Sure Glen, sure
Carter must surely be one of the most unfairly criticised Presidents.
He was castigated for statements about energy conservation that seemed ‘un-American’ in the 1970s but just look like common sense now, and blamed for international incidents that were essentially out of his control.
What you mean how a poll that seems to favour the right wing side of things makes money off of right wing media outlets?
Hmmm let me think…
That’s right, all of those articles about how her campaign was unstoppable and her nomination inevitable lulled her into a false sense of security.
I am pretty sure Republicans pay them (IBD/TIPP) to stay afloat somehow, so thier campaign donations don’t dry up completely when things look like they do now.
I mean, if you had a lazy couple of grand lying around and a conservative leaning, would you seriously waste it on the GOP this election?
true but false. Yes the media treated Obama as a bit of a darling – but they were sweet on Clinton as well. The media doesn’t get you home. You still have to get the votes. Hilary would have beaten anyone else were it any other year. But this year, for some reason Obama caught on fire, and it never flamed out.
The reasons he beat Hilary are PhD length stuff: sexism – I’d say yes; media – yes; but mostly in a year where change from the old was the primary marker, suddenly a Clinton didn’t seem as much of a change as it normally would have.
Also you could say it was as much to do with how the Dems do their primaries – if the primaries were doen like the General election she would have won. As it was it was damn close.
Still all fishwrapper stuff really.
BO in a landslide. The rest is just hypothesis.
If you’re going to make these sort of casual assertions, please back it up with some form of evidence.
Here is a list of polls from Pennsylvania in 2004. I can’t see any that had a 15 point gap, or anything close to that.
I also think you’re revising history a little, Glen. Both Hilary and Rudy ran the worst campaign strategies you can think of (ok JohnnyMac’s general strategy might trump them) and, in Hilary’s case, she made it easier for Obi to garner the support that he did. She had every advantage going into this thing, and she can’t blame anyone but herself and her team.
Rudy’s campaign strategy was idiotic from the get-go. How he couldn’t go hard in NH, I have no idea. He and McCain were competing for the same pie, and he just ceded it to him. DAFT! Never had a chance – and maybe the base just would never have gone for him anyway (less sure about this). I actually don’t mind his politics, but he was also presenting himself as a national security candidate that was probably going to get swept up in the economic tsunami (though maybe might have argued a better case than Mac has proved to do). He’s no Arnie Vinick!!! Boy, if one likes bloodsport though to see him and Hilary go at it would have been something else, tho…
GG
Evolutionary psychology says that it’s because evolution has evolved the brain in modules. There is a differential advantage to each module getting more “space”. There are thousands of modules. Each one will store trivia pertinent to it’s special area eg face recognition. Higher functions join the modules to create “narratives”. It’s the joining that is the hard part and where the main differences between humans come in.
thanks, william, will file that one away ….
David Walsh
Reality and facts have a liberal bias. Please don’t try using them on conservatives as they are impervious to them.
GG 415 – “board hoggers” – sounds like what I had last night.
Greeting to Amigos Ron & GG from Patagonia. The Amigos here are still not keen on Obama, especially the Gauchos, they like to have bbq Obama for lunch.
SNIP: Unproductive comment deleted – The Management.
Diogenew,
This is probably why everybody thinks filing is easy (until you lose something of importance).
Diogenes
“Reality and facts have a liberal bias”
That’s awesome- that’s going to be my new face book quote in about 30 secs from now.
I am not a typical well rounded liberal (more centerist), but that does ring sooo true!
Finns,
It’s careful waht you vote for,
You just might get it!
Finns
Great to hear from you. How’s Machu Picchu looking?
BBD
I can’t take credit for that one. Stephen Colbert used it during his Presidential roast. He said that reality’s liberal bias was the reason he and Bush could ignore all the polls saying that Bush was the worst President ever.
GG
Filing is used in the Memory Palace, which was described by Ricci in the Middle Ages in China. To remember hundreds of facts, you imagine a palace with lots of rooms and boxes etc. You walk into the palace and deposit the fact in a drawer or whatever for later retrieval. That uses the same module principle.
Man they must have hated him after that
Dario
Haven’t you seen it? It’s the most savage attack I’ve ever seen on someone in their presence, let alone to a President. The room goes quiet (it’s a pro-Bush crowd) and you can see him think whether he should continue with the original material and he decides to do it all and ignore the crowd.
At the end of the speech, GWBush shook his hand but Laura Bush just looked at him and said “Get f#%*ed!”.
(Sorry William but it was in context)
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=qa-4E8ZDj9s
The same performance where Colbert satirised McCain’s maverick reputation. Long before McCain and Palin turned the “maverick” label into an item of self-parody.
Transcript
John McCain is here. John McCain, what a maverick! Somebody find out what fork he used on his salad, because I guarantee you it wasn’t a salad fork. This guy could have used a spoon! There’s no predicting him. By the way, Senator McCain, it’s so wonderful to see you coming back into the Republican fold. I’ve actually got a summer house in South Carolina. Look me up when you go to speak at Bob Jones University. So glad you’ve seen the light, sir.
Mason-Dixon
PA
Obama +4
OH
McCain +2
FL
Obama +2
VA
Obama +3
MO
Obama +1
NBC National Poll
Obama 51
McCain 43
445, 446 pure Gold.
so many great lines:
L[ook, folks, my point is that I don't believe this is a low point in this presidency. I believe it is just a lull before a comeback. I mean, it's like the movie Rocky. Alright? The President, in this case, is Rocky Balboa, and Apollo Creed is everything else in the world. It's the tenth round. He's bloodied. His corner man, Mick, who in this case, I guess, would be the Vice President, he's yelling, "Cut me, Dick, cut me!" And every time he falls, everyone says, "Stay down, Rocky! Stay down!" But does he stay down? No. Like Rocky, he gets back up, and in the end he -- actually loses in the first movie. Okay, doesn't matter. Doesn’t matter.
The point is it is the heart-warming story of a man who was repeatedly punched in the face, so don't pay attention to the approval ratings that say that 68% of Americans disapprove of the job this man is doing. I ask you this, does that not also logically mean that 68% approve of the job he's not doing? Think about it. I haven't... ]
Genius.
Juliem
Glen is pretty much a representative example of the right conservatives currently in control of the Liberal party wrapped up in one little bundle, unfortunately he is not a troll, in fact within that set his views really aren’t that extreme.
Ron Paul is running in Montana? Woo, return to the gold standard!
Since I’m the only tipping McCain, if he wins do I get crowned King of PB?
Had heard about it but not seen it, thanks for that
Oz,
I reckon if McCain wins you (and the other nine people in the world who thought he could do it) should all get jobs in his Cabinet!
Don’t worry, he will win and you lot are all going to have egg on your face come Wednesday.
I’ll be waving at you on Inauguration Day.
Yes.
And then we’ll run you out of town on a rail!
Hah, Fox News has… the narrowing!
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/03/wsj-poll-obamas-lead-narrows-mccain-sees-hope-undecideds/
And narrow is the margin? 8 points.
Fox News. I read it so you don’t have too.
oz, you will have to speak to william on that
I’m not offering prizes, just a clearing house for keeping track of our picks
fredn, i already noted (#436) that but thanks anyways
. are you still happy with your 271? 
Gold
Los Angeles Times July 20 39.0% 51.0% there.
juleim I’m pretty sure I was in the 330s. Can you change it to 364? (methodolgy – cureent intrade + one of either IN or MO)
What some left of centre people need to understand is that they do not have the right to say they are right and we are wrong.
It isnt that simple. The fact is both sides get it right sometimes and they get it wrong sometimes too.
Obama is no saint so dont go round saying he’s the messiah.
McCain isnt perfect either.
The way you bag Fox News you ought to also bag MSNBC but when have we heard you attack them for bias, never.
Grog
#432
“The reasons he (Obama) beat Hilary are PhD length stuff”
Firstly Obama won th Democrat Niomineship fullstop and now will be th Democrat POTUS
However some of th hubris pro Obama posts here today about th Obama/Clinton contest ar absolute contrary to fact
In reality Nomineeship is decided by winning th mosdt pledged delegates from contested Democrat Primarys (effwectively decided “almost” proportionately
Obama won th pledged delegate race by a 2% margin That is a close marginal win not a huge win….but a win by any margin is still a win and you get to be Democtat Nominee
which is why Obama is th Democrat Nominee
Apart from th close 2% pledged delegate final result , Hillary actualy won th popular vote (by 1%) empohasising how close th contest was Hillary also won ALL of th swing states
Obama on th other hand got most of his pledged delegates 1/ by winning th most Democrat votes over Hillary in Primarys absolute rock solid “red” States (mainly via 90% of th black vote & th colleged educated set) 2/ by winning “Caucus’s” and again mostly absolute rock solid “red” States 3/ and to a lesser extent winning mostly affluent blue States
These ar th factual results of what occured So I agree with #432 post
ps/ would add a note that a guy called Mark Penn got pushed onto Hillary as th campaign manager by th Democrat hierchary experts & of th 100 odd PBers here any of you would hav een clever …at least all of yous would do high school maths working out that to win a pledged delegates race where proportionalitty applies per State you seriously contest all States Primarys & Caucus’s not 60% of them as Mark Penn implimented as your first decision Just proves if you ar not an expert in an area , th supposed experts may be worse than you
As my first words said , Obama won th Democrat Nonmineeship and will be POTUS , but without revising history
Glen
We’re hardly going to do your job for you, are we? As long as we don’t say MSNBC aren’t biased everything is sweet.
And we’re having a great run at the moment with Blair gone, Howard gone and the Repugs dying a horrible death. We’ve had so much pain to deal with the last ten years or so.
But there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I can see the LIGHT!!
Ron , I agree – it was damn close, and lots of if onlys and maybes would have seen it go the other way.
(and there will be lots of PhDs written on it!)
I never understood that term. “Left” and “right” came into usage before centre. Actually, centrists should be called “right of left” or “left of right”. Communists would be “left of left” and fascists would be “right of right.
Fox News has no comparison to any other media outlet in the world, be it conservative or “liberal”. Well except maybe The Australia.
Thanks for the idea. I’ll send you a copy.
Fox is more like the West Australian than the Australian.
Oz, I take it you’re presuming there’s some ‘Bradley effect’ going on then?
Ronster
No, Obama won the popular vote unless you count MI where Obi wasn’t even on the ballot. I’m keeping my eye on you Ron.
Excellent; I shall waste no time in reading it.
Diogenes just remember what comes up, must come down.
juliem, I understand that I’ve picked identically to at least one other person. If a tie-breaker is required, I can offer the following in the category of your choice:
• Al Franken to win in the Minnesota senate race (by a whisker)
• Septimus in the Cup
• Geelong 2009 AFL premiers (sure, this option would take a while to break the tie)
• Scissors
• Tails.
come again?
Glen @ 459:
I sincerely hope you’re taking the piss.
If not, do you know what cherry-picking is?
Several polls had Bush 8+ behind…in 2004.
I doubt McCain will win PA.
Nothing to do with race, I think the Bradley effect is a crock. I just have a feeling that things are going to end up a lot closer than they appear.
I’m not 100% sure why. Maybe I just don’t trust Americans, the majority of whom believe in magical creatures, to vote for a sensible candidate. I don’t agree with Obama on a few issues but I don’t he’s dumb, evil, selfish or anything that most of us accept is part of the Republican Party.
Glen
That’s all the more reason to enjoy ourselves while we are up. I think we’ve got about 20 years before another horrible downturn into fascism but how global warming pans out will either bring that forward or delay it considerably.
474:
Yeah – back in August!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html
New thread.