With less than a week ago to the big day, the polls are showing only a fractional narrowing in Barack Obama’s formidable lead. Such narrowing has been enough to move North Carolina to the John McCain column on my polling aggregates while making Indiana line-ball, but Obama is retaining his tight grip on the rust-belt swing states while increasing his lead in Florida. For some local colour, our good friends at UMR Research have produced another poll on Australian views of the contest. It finds Obama’s lead over McCain among Australians has widened still further in the past month, from 66-13 to 72-9.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Michigan | 54.7 | 39.4 | 3005 | 17 | |
| Washington | 54.9 | 40.1 | 3379 | 11 | |
| Maine | 54.5 | 40.0 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 53.6 | 41.3 | 4128 | 10 | |
| Iowa | 52.6 | 41.7 | 3530 | 7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 52.2 | 41.7 | 5505 | 21 | |
| New Hampshire | 51.7 | 41.9 | 3905 | 4 | |
| Wisconsin | 51.5 | 42.1 | 3490 | 10 | |
| New Mexico | 50.5 | 43.3 | 2927 | 5 | |
| Colorado | 50.6 | 44.4 | 4541 | 9 | |
| Ohio | 48.6 | 42.8 | 4741 | 20 | |
| Virginia | 50.7 | 45.0 | 4852 | 13 | |
| Nevada | 50.0 | 45.4 | 3418 | 5 | |
| Florida | 48.0 | 45.2 | 5429 | 27 | |
| Missouri | 47.4 | 46.5 | 4050 | 11 | |
| North Dakota | 45.5 | 44.7 | 1206 | 3 | |
| Indiana | 47.1 | 47.0 | 4934 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 47.4 | 48.4 | 5466 | 15 | |
| Montana | 45.0 | 48.9 | 3128 | 3 | |
| Georgia | 45.6 | 50.0 | 3530 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 42.7 | 51.0 | 3622 | 5 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 49.9 | 43.9 | - | 363 | 175 |
478 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 4 5 [6] 7 8 … 10 » Show All
Just to clarify the above, I meant that the reregulation being suggested now is nowhere near socialism. It would be still to the right of the conservative governments of the 60s and 70s.
Our friends at Zogby have reversed their one day trend to McCain. Today’s figures are 52/42 making it 49.5/43.8.
Did you get this from Drudge!?
Didn’t think so…
ShowsOn
Drudge is very downbeat at the moment. He couldn’t find any outlier polls so he reported the facts. It’s almost unheard of
The Repugs are so pathetic. Talk about clasping at straws.
Republicans try to use Oxford don to smear Barack Obama
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5063279.ece
Does this mean Costello is still unsure?
THIS is the image that made feel comfortable:
http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/426/trackers_1101_bothgallup.gif
Since the 27th, McCain hasn’t gone over 44.5%. The aggregate of the trackers is basically just a flat line for him that can’t even reach 45%.
The ever reliably unreliable Zogby at its best
One thing I found interesting on the Zogby breakdowns is that McCain is only leading Obama by 6% in armed forces households. I suppose they are younger and “blacker” than the general population, but for a “Navy hero” he’s not doing well with the military. And there’s plenty of military households in VA, NC and SC.
line of the night ShowsOn.
Yes but he made sure it was very small. The headline is a pic of BO looking every bit the evil warlord pointing with a caption “I will change the world”.
Very weird.
When Reagan spoke like that he was commended.
What exactly has happened to the Right in the U.S.?
Diogenes, Julie Bishop will be scared if that computer program sees the light of day!
Right, Juliem – after too much dithering, I have to make a stand… I’m with the respected & venerated Julian (#192) on 353 and no to Missouri. Happy to pick a distinguishing state to put Obi over the top, but am not sure how many other 353’s there are – let alone what state they have picked. Will do so by the deadline!
Ron #174 – there’s no doubt your views are thought out, whether or not people agree with you… I still don’t get the degree of enthusiasm differential on your side between Obi and Hilary – on balance, I suspect Hilary of being more populist and less principled than Obi in general (though there are exceptions like healthcare where she would be more to his left). At worst, close enough to not be sooo harsh on Obi? At any rate, I know we can join together on Tuesday at least to celebrate the end of the latest horrendous Republican era, which was truly necessary!
The Sarkosy prac joke on Palin just killed me, though how many others would have fallen for the prank similarly… quite a few, methinks – the only exception was not even hesitating with the faux Canadian PM’s name (for gawd’s sake, she oughta know that?!).
Found it interesting that Glen mentioned Lamar Alexander for ‘96 – he or Powell might have given Bill a run for his money rather than the cadaverous sell-out Dole (too many parallels between him and JohnnyMac this time around)…. unless someone comes out of nowhere, the only viable (if not probable) candidate is Romney mark #1 without the social flip-flops… if he can’t win due to his mormonism then that same base who denies him for that reason will end up promoting Huckabee or Palin. The fiscal conservatives need to reassert themselves somehow on the Repub party… though I spose anything is possible if Obi turns out more Carter like or the Dem legislature are allowed to overreach too extremely. That’s Obi’s biggest test, I reckon – but no matter what if they take Palin in 2012 would at worst be analogous to the last NSW state election?
Reagan did change th world for both th better His ’star wars ‘ plans , expanded military spending etc sent USSSR broke trying to compete and helped brake that totalitarian wicked dictatroial USSR Empire He then normalissed relations with Gorbywith a chanse of more freedom for russian peoples & sattellites (very worthwhile) but unfoertunately Putin is reversing freedoms now
Unforyunately Reagan also sent US debt up with crazy supply side economics , cut into social programs for less well off , caused crashs of part Banking sector with weakwened prudentials , then market meltdown , commenced th illegal Iran contra bit …but George Bush makes Reagan look not so bad comparatively
Expat @ 261,
This is what you are up against, between the two of you, one or the other needs to make a stand otherwise, if your number comes up snake eyes, you share the glory …
Stewart J O 353 N MO
ExPat Follower O 353 N MO
This ’state’ that puts Obi over the top is doing my head in!
I’m going to assume that all the Kerry states plus Iowa & New Mexico will be called for Obama based on exit polling as soon as polls close (that’s only 264). The last tranche of these will be the West Coast states (77) at 11pm Eastern Time. So, if nothing else is called by 11pm then it will be CA/WA/OR/HI that will seal it for Obi.
Can 83 non-Kerry EC states be called before 11pm? let’s see:
a) Georgia (15), Indiana (15) and Virginia (13) close at 7pm; Vermont (3) will be called for Obi based on exits
b) North Carolina (15) and Ohio (20) close at 7:30pm; nothing to add based on exits
c) Florida (27) and Missouri (15) at 8pm; Obi now up to 105 based on cumulative exits (inc PA – controversial?), assuming non of the Bush states above have been called
d) Colorado (9) at 9pm; Obi now up to 182 (inc NM – controversial?) – ditto same assumption
e) Iowa (7), Montana (3) and Nevada (5) at 10pm – they’ll give Iowa to Obi straight away (189) – ditto same assumption
The question becomes, which will Obama win and when can they be called? My best guesses below:
- Virginia will be called for Obi fairly quickly – we then “know” he’s won along with PA being called for him, but it won’t be official yet! But if we aren’t comfortable by 8pm eastern, then I’ll be losing my hair quickly!!!
- Ohio & FL will be called before 11 – bullish call on my part
- He needs another 20-ish called for him before 11….GO, IN, NC, MO, CO could all get him there in some combination (but I don’t think he’s gonna win GO, IN, MO). Can it be clear that CO is his before 11pm (possible), or that NC is his before 11pm (possible)
So, I reckon its gotta be between Colorado, Nth Carolina or the West Coast States (this would be simultaneous, so can’t pick one? Julie? Maybe Hawaii for sentimental reasons!).
My fellow 353’s, what do you say? If I can get in first, I guess I have to go with the West Coast swing, unless its taken – in which case Nth Carolina (not too many picks there, would guess!)
If y’all reckon I’m smoking pot somewhere in the above, pls tell me before Tuesday!!!
Without throwing in spanners, maybe the # republican seats in the senate might be a good tiebreaker as well?
Julie, I’m sure Julian has joined us elite prognosticators on 353?
Expat Follower
# 263 or #264 “Ron there’s no doubt your views are thought out, whether or not
people agree with you…”
#90 “Ron -I for one am convinced that you have criticisms of Obama from the “left”
Yes Expat Follower my #171 (or #174) did list 19 specific ‘left’ policys areas where I feel Obama is ‘left’ deficient with th first 3 (universal healthcare , Kyoto & centrist economics three of th most important of th 19)
MOST of those 19 Al Gore (my first preference) would also be in disagreement with Obama as I… Further most of those 19 both Hillary & Edwards (my 2nd & 3rd choises) variously would also disagree with Obama So you ar quite correct my criticisms of Obama ar from th “left” and “left” based , hence I’m informal
However obviuosly Obama supporters support Obama for different reasons (many probably not aware of th whole 19 list) but most believing supporting a Democrat itself is more than enough reason to avoid a further Republican Presidency with its numerous downsides And believing (correctly) with a Democrat President FA relations will be more inclusive especiallywith th EU and more humane domestic social policys generaly resulting I hav no problem and understand these broad reasons for there support of Obama over a Republican including yours I just happen to want more for my vote , those policys
My disagreements hav essentially been with either those Obam supporters who claimed (when I individualy posted singularly any of th 19) that they were inaccurate policy criticisms when they were not …..or those posters upset when I introduced character issues of Obama or those posters upset that Obama was criticised at all on any ‘left’ policy as if this was a criticism free Site
I believe my 19 list warrants my stanse from (for me) a ‘left’ policy viewpoint , however Obama will be elected and I hope he is an outstanding President despite my reservations because both th US and th world economy & world FA needs one after th disgraqce of Bush (And as an aside left person if I thought my non vote could elect a Republican then of course I’d change from informal & vote for Obama)
.
I’m in a few moderations for some reason trying today replying to you so not sure of correct post numbers on your screen
LOL @ Fox reading viewer emails.
Ronster
I note Hillary is 20% for SoS on Intrade. As if!
Diogenes
I thought you would hav been going through my 19 ‘left’ Obama deficiency areas in my #171 (or #174) with your scrupolous scalpels trying to find th slighest error I’d made in that 19 oint long post ….. but no instead you ar energised still about your Lady (Hillary) which surely is not as important as reel policys
Suspect she will remain in th Senate
expat, jj has 313 No Missouri and California. I’ve 375, Yes Missouri and Colorado. You can certainly say the west coast swing if you want, I’ve already got one of those [ CA/OR/WA/HI ] ….. unless I hear otherwise from you, I will assume from your post at 266 that is what you want …. and yes, I am up late tonight
……
expat, having everyone guess a 3rd item this late in the piece wouldn’t work as we couldn’t reach that many people in time to submit guesses … some of the players aren’t regular posters and just transit in and out …..
most common guess for state to put Obama over the top was Colorado, picked by 9 out of our 30 players so far …….
Ronster
I never saw them. Were you in moderation AGAIN, you bad man.
Looks like I either agree with you on most (1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 18, 19) or don’t know/care enough/equivocal about the rest. I don’t actively support his decision on any of them.
Are you happy now? BTW You’ll have to vote for Nader if you want someone who agrees with you on all of them. It’s quite funny that Obi is getting slammed as a pinko commie in the US when most of his policies would make John Howard blush.
Okay, I’ll bite for Julie @ 63’s challenge.
1. 311 EC votes (being conservative/pessimistic. I think NC will be ball-tearingly close with O maybe a tick over 50% to take it. I’ve been saying all year that Obama can’t win Florida and so I shouldn’t back out on my convictions now, even though the number-crunchers would doubt me.)
2. No. At an imprecise guess, lose by 1-2%.
3. As Expat Follower has identified, we need some clarification of the definition of the state that puts him over the top. Do you mean the tipping point state as defined in 538.com? Or do you mean the state that is called for him on the night (by which news service/body?) that takes him over 270 EC votes, on top of the states previously called for him on the night? If the former, Virginia; if the latter, doubtless depends on how bullish the news service you’re relying on is, but I’d have to go with weight of numbers and say California.
Expat @ 266,
By much the same reasoning I picked California as the state to put O over the top. They’ll call it on exit polls whereas Colorado will at least require a real count, which ought to take more than an hour longer.
Still I am a mere 352er, not a 353er like you.
It’s still plain sailing in Sundays polls so far.
Zogby National Obama +6%
Mason-Dixon VA Obama +3% (MD is always 2-3% Repug biased)
Des Moines Register IA Obama +17%
Mason-Dixon NV Obama +4%
No MOE shifts anywhere
Colorado Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Obama +5
Ohio Columbus Dispatch Obama +6
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama +7
And Franken is ahead of Coleman by 4%.
SimonH,
I believe juliem’s definition of the “state that puts O over the top” is based on the order in which states are “called” by CNN.
I personally think California is a no-brainer for this.
(Then again I also thought Hillary was a no-brainer for the nomination, etc, etc).
It all depends on how big the margin is by the time it gets to the West Coast. CNN may end up ‘calling it’ before Calfornia even closes. You never know.
And I should also add one other thing arising from the end of Expat Follower’s 266: any service that calls a state for a candidate, before a single vote has been counted, should be roundly ignored. If there’s evidence that exit polls are significantly more reliable than before-the-fact polls, I’ve not seen it.
I appreciate that where the swing/numbers are very clear cut, you can validly call a state after just a few thousand votes; but if you’re calling a state on opinion polls, you might as well just call it now.
Simon 282
“but if you’re calling a state on opinion polls, you might as well just call it now.”
ok, if you dare me I’ll call California now.
Obama
Dare me to take a stab at Utah?
Just looking through the RCP battle grounds
It hasn’t always been the case, but currently every “toss up” listed has less than 50% for the current leader and a spread within MOE. The leaning states are all 50% or better with a safe spread.
With a day left, I’d say that means either candidate could still grab any or all of the toss ups but the others are tied down.
Obama’s range is between 311 and 406 and McCain is 132 to 227.
Dyno – what combo of states gets you to 352… the only way I can get it is to give Obi neither of NC or Georgia, one of either Missouri/Indiana and one of either Nth Dakota/Montana…. mate, if you pull that off then you really deserve some serious bragging rights!!
Simon, to follow on from BigBlindDave, we’ve gotta go with CNN as the universal point of reference (for better or for worse)… I’m sure they called a few of the primaries within 5 seconds of polls closing and would therefore be expecting them to call Vermont for Obi and Kentucky for cadaverboy at 7:00:05. If even an iota of doubt, they tend not to want to make fools of themselves by projecting too early. But, am expecting them to call the West Coast swing at 5 seconds past 11… if they don’t, then my logic goes out the window!!
Julie, pls check what I have as post 192 from JJulian in this thread… looks like he’s changed to 353? Absolutely fair enough on introducing any new measures at this stage. Curious where the consensus is on #repub senators just out of curiosity (easier to think this way then have to factor in the likes of Lieberman/Sanders)… I’m thinking 41/42 but would be very happy with 37/38!!! As long as that godly Elizabeth Dole loses. I’m with Glen on hoping a couple of the more moderate repub senators survive – need someone to run in 2012 that isn’t a redneck whackjob!!!
We need something to obsess over after this election… I think Wolfiebaby is a total lightweight, though enjoy some of his Situation Room commentators (Tobin and Castellanos, ironically enough); I HATE what Brokaw has done with Meet the Press post-Russert (not to mention his crapola moderation of debate #2)… any predictions on who should get the MtP gig permanently… Chuck Todd? I suspect not Matthews or Olbermann!!! Really dig Mike Murphy and Ron Brownstein on MtP when they are on.
Everyone is asleep in Aus, no doubt – so will stop (the Grand Prix finale about to start as well). Just wanted to suggest that he who gets the comment number that corresponds to Obi’s final count should get a special booby prize… my post at #286 above covers the Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + Virginia + Colorado result!!
Yours sincerely in pathetic sadness…
SimonH @ 276,
Sorry should have clarified for your and some others benefit. In earlier posts over recent weeks, I have but not in the last 10 days or so.
I meant state that puts him over the top based upon the tv coverage, specifically CNN as that is the channel I will be watching on Wednesday. Some others might watch Fox or a different channel, but I’ll be glued to CNN. I know different places might have a different order to call the states in too so while others out there know I’ve said CNN before, for you since you had not heard that, you’ll have to take my word for it.
Btw, I read all the way through your post and wrote down California for that question
…..
Re 282,
Simon, don’t know how much you’ve been paying attention to either PB posts over the last 2 months or so or reading the various news websites. In no particular order: an Irish betting agency (local equivelent I suppose of the TAB) declared the election in late September/early October refusing to take any more bets and paying out on those it already had on the books; a magazine/newspaper that prints a biweekly issue which straddles their printing cycle has already declared Obama the winner (a la Truman/Dewey overtones if they are wrong) and finally, the US comic strip Doonesbury has already printed and put out to publishers their election day after strip which discusses an Obama victory.
I’ll declare New York for Obama right here and now
…… Ok, we’ve got California and New York off of the hook 
Expat follower @ 285,
This is the post you refer to
This was your post above
jj can correct me if he’s changed his guess but I quite clearly read that as electoral vote.com’s EV guess ….
NBC news in the US is hanging out for numbers of 286 for Obama
….. massively underguessing the momentum imho 
Tuscon’s newspaper endorses Obama. Tucson is the second largest city in Arizona, following only Phoenix ….. not sure if the Phoenix paper has made an endorsement yet, does anyone know?
Stevens will go one way or the other
I*iot …… M*ron …… L*ser ….. woah, wait, I like that last one
McCain in new trouble it seems. The allegations, if true, are new and weren’t turned up at the time of the original Keating5 story.
Something to keep in mind when the exit polls start coming out on Wednesday morning:
As always, Jason Linkins hilarious summary of the Sunday talk shows:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/tv-soundoff-sunday-talkin_n_140103.html
You’ve got to hand it to the Old Man. He’s really working hard. On Monday, he’ll appear in SIX states, and Palin will be in FIVE.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/where-they-are-today-and_n_140202.html
juliem but then you would have to call Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Utah, Wyoming and Nebraska and Idaho for McCain already…that’s just stupid while we can take educated guesses but dont let hubris take hold.
Pages: « 1 … 4 5 [6] 7 8 … 10 » Show All