Or possibly one day, depending on what time zone you’re in. This will in any case be the final thread for presidential fat-chewing purposes prior to the live blogging of the count, which will begin an hour or two before the first states close their polls. Firstly we have the latest polling aggregate figures, in which McCain has (at the time of writing) taken the lead in Indiana and Missouri and narrowed the gap to various degrees in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, while losing ground in Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Washington | 56.5 | 39.4 | 3322 | 11 | |
| Maine | 56.6 | 40.3 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 56.1 | 41.7 | 3270 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 56.4 | 42.1 | 3232 | 17 | |
| New Mexico | 57.1 | 43.0 | 3305 | 5 | |
| New Hampshire | 55.0 | 41.7 | 3900 | 4 | |
| Iowa | 54.2 | 41.4 | 3052 | 7 | |
| Wisconsin | 53.4 | 42.1 | 3003 | 10 | |
| Colorado | 54.9 | 44.5 | 3248 | 9 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.1 | 43.1 | 5479 | 21 | |
| Nevada | 51.7 | 45.2 | 3168 | 5 | |
| Virginia | 52.0 | 45.6 | 3382 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 50.6 | 46.1 | 6490 | 20 | |
| Florida | 50.0 | 46.6 | 5381 | 27 | |
| North Dakota | 47.7 | 45.7 | 1706 | 3 | |
| Montana | 48.7 | 47.4 | 3934 | 3 | |
| Missouri | 49.9 | 48.6 | 3217 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 50.1 | 49.1 | 5582 | 15 | |
| Indiana | 48.6 | 48.7 | 3834 | 11 | |
| Georgia | 47.9 | 49.9 | 3248 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 44.0 | 54.1 | 3328 | 5 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 52.0 | 44.2 | - | 370 | 168 |
Not sure how illuminating this is, but the following map shows the swing in each state as indicated by Electoral-Vote’s poll averages. White indicates either no change from 2004 or a swing to the Republicans, the latter only applying to Massachusetts where John Kerry presumably garnered a handsome home-state vote. The deepest shade of blue indicates a swing of over 20 per cent. Swing is measured by comparing the vote gap between Republican and Democrats.
This chart indicates how polling in various states has shifted since October 13, as measured by my own polling aggregates. John McCain’s furious campaigning in Pennsylvania has yielded a 7.7 per cent narrowing, which while highly impressive is still nowhere near enough. He has also gained ground in Florida (Obama’s lead is down 4.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent), North Carolina (4.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent), Virginia (3.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent) and Missouri (from 2.3 per cent behind to 0.7 per cent ahead). Barack Obama has extended his lead in New Mexico (up 5.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent), Washington (up 3.8 per cent to 15.7 per cent) and Minnesota (up 3.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent). Ignore Maine, where there have only been a few polls.
Finally, many thanks to reader Viggo Pedersen for compiling this list of poll closing times in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.
| State | Close AEDT |
Electoral Votes |
Cumulative EV |
| Vermont | 1100 | 3 | |
| Kentucky | 1100 | 8 | |
| South Carolina | 1100 | 8 | |
| Indiana | 1100 | 11 | |
| Virginia | 1100 | 13 | |
| Georgia | 1100 | 15 | 58 |
| West Virginia | 1130 | 5 | |
| Ohio | 1130 | 20 | 83 |
| Delaware | 1200 | 3 | |
| District Of Columbia | 1200 | 3 | |
| Maine | 1200 | 4 | |
| New Hampshire | 1200 | 4 | |
| Mississippi | 1200 | 6 | |
| Connecticut | 1200 | 7 | |
| Oklahoma | 1200 | 7 | |
| Alabama | 1200 | 9 | |
| Maryland | 1200 | 10 | |
| Missouri | 1200 | 11 | |
| Tennessee | 1200 | 11 | |
| Massachusetts | 1200 | 12 | |
| New Jersey | 1200 | 15 | |
| Illinois | 1200 | 21 | |
| Pennsylvania | 1200 | 21 | |
| Florida | 1200 | 27 | 254 |
| Arkansas | 1230 | 6 | |
| North Carolina | 1230 | 15 | 275 |
| South Dakota | 1300 | 3 | |
| Wyoming | 1300 | 3 | |
| Rhode Island | 1300 | 4 | |
| Nebraska | 1300 | 5 | |
| New Mexico | 1300 | 5 | |
| Kansas | 1300 | 6 | |
| Colorado | 1300 | 9 | |
| Louisiana | 1300 | 9 | |
| Arizona | 1300 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 1300 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 1300 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 1300 | 17 | |
| New York | 1300 | 31 | |
| Texas | 1300 | 34 | 431 |
| Montana | 1400 | 3 | |
| Nevada | 1400 | 5 | |
| Utah | 1400 | 5 | |
| Iowa | 1400 | 7 | 451 |
| North Dakota | 1500 | 3 | |
| Hawaii | 1500 | 4 | |
| Idaho | 1500 | 4 | |
| Oregon | 1500 | 7 | |
| Washington | 1500 | 11 | |
| California | 1500 | 55 | 535 |
| Alaska | 1700 | 3 | 538 |
587 Comments
Dice it any way you like. Bar a super surprise Barak Obama will be the next president of the USA.
Officially anxious
The vote table does not add up to 100% is the missing data`informal votes? Can you produce a state swing chart/pendulum.
Re poll closing times: very nice map at Swing State Project.
Is that time in AEDT or AEST? You’ve got both written there…
Yo Julie!
I’ve decided to be the mavricky, roguesque whack-job of your contest and lower my 313 EV’s down to 312: Kerry + IA, NM, CO, VA, NV, OH + Omaha.
I’ll stick with No in Mizzou and California.
Muchas gracias, amiga!
Thanks Bird, corrected.
So first you claimed 15, now it’s 8… do I hear 4 anyone?
If McCain can win Ohio and Florida it wont be much of a win for Obama if he does.
I suspect McCain will fair well in these States unless it is a blow out.
What are we defining as a “landslide”? How many EV’s?
Sowing the seeds of failure for not getting a landslide eh Glen? A win by 1 EV is still a win
I don’t think it will be a landslide. Happy to be proved wrong.
Oz
2/3 of EV’s ?
Oz: How long is a piece of string?
Ok, less rhetorically…
What was Sam Seaborn’s (West Wing) politics/baseball analogy? You win one third of your matches, lose one third of your matches and it’s the remaining third that counts.
Let’s turn that on its head and say that a greater than two thirds win constitutes a landslide. That’s 359 electoral votes.
Hehe, Gusface. Snap.
One thing that I can’t stand is people who carry on discussions from a previous thread. Like I’m about to do.
Ron @ 462: “Hillary also won ALL of th swing states.” Obama won Iowa, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Virginia, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Montana. I would love to
hear your definition of ’swing state’. Presumably no matter what the introductory words are, it will contain the suffix, ‘… that Hillary Clinton carried in the Democratic primary’.
To appropriately edit you, “some of th[e] posts here today about th[e] Obama/Clinton contest ar[e] absolute contrary to fact”.
The ‘Obama is only carrying the primary because of the blacks and college-educated liberals’ argument was HRC’s (and her boosters’) ‘electability’ argument: that Obama might be able to cobble together an alliance sufficient to carry a primary but he lacked the broad appeal to win a general election. The events of the next 48 hours (in a Presidential election with high turnout) mean the argument is highly likely to be shown up as nonsense.
I’ll be very happy if Obama wins by one EV or 100. A win is a win.
Me neither, that’s why my EV tip was in the 280’s
Diogenes #468 “No, Obama won the popular vote unless you count MI where Obi wasn’t even on the ballot.”
False Obama’s name WAS on th MI Ballot Obama later took his name OFF th MI Ballot
Th polls were showing Hillary 55% Obama 30% Edwards 15% Obama was going to get thrahed in MI …not surprising it was Hillarys demographics
Th Electoral commission was then forsed by Obama’s action to add a voter called “uncommitted voter Obama then campaigned for th uncommitted voter” …and got just over 30% Please sticjk to facts
Ps/ Just in case you mention FL incidsently , Obama DID leave his name ON th Ballot Obama did campaign there also on TV adds and got soundly defeated not surprising it was Hillarys demographics
,
Even th LATER June 2008 Democrat Executive deciding on MI and FL ruled th delegates won by each Candidate being based based on my figures in both FL & MI Your dislike of Hillary who you call Billary still remainds , stop rewriting history Obama will be POTUS
SimonH , on previous threads I’ve demonstrated you know little about th electoral map There were swing States at th time including MASSIVE E/V swing States eg FL , WV & OH , PA , MI …all of which Hillary won (and Obama was BEHIND McCain on polling THRN on those whereas Hillary was in fronyt of Mccain then on polling)
BUT TODAY post bailout , th collapse of Republican brand & McCains woeful campaign what is a swing State now is not comparative if you understood Feb- May electon status what was a swing state then
Obama breaks 90 on Intrade for the first time.
Did anyone see the Four Corners story on the election tonight. It was focused on Ohio as a microcosm of the election and was fairly obvious IMO, without saying much posters here wouldn’t already know.
There was one claim which I am curious about though – they said on 4C that they were on schedule to get an 80% (of registered voters) turnout, with 30% early votes. Of these, Obama was averaging 59% to McCains 41% nationally! If thats true then its looking very good
Yes, Lateline mentioned similar figures tonight
“Obama was averaging 59% to McCains 41% nationally”
Depends on th voter registration dissection but even consevatively its a big margin
Did not see 4 corners , but OH I beleive was a natural State for McCain to win solidly and was sitting that way earlier in th year , however suspect th economic ruins that State is in has been clearly identified by voters as unambiguouslky to them as Republican caused via th very public “Republicon” Wall Street collapse & “Republican” bailout with a resultant massive shift to Obama since September
Ron
Yes Ohio is one of the states that has suffered worst from the economic fallout. First it had a large involvement in the sub prime mortgage market. Second its industries are focused heavily on domestic manufacturing (cars, tyres etc) so as the US economy tanks it loses jobs fast.
I also wonder in addition to those causes whether OH is somewhat a reflecton of th old US pre globisation that has graqdually caught up with it ….and needing a period of tramsformaton
No sign of narrowing in the national polls, actually there is a widening.
If this is an indication of how undecideds will break it might be pushing the 370+ EV mark for Obama on Tuesday.
Ron
Partly yes. Ohio’s problems have been known for a while – it was one of the areas where the term “rustbelt” was coined before pudnits started applying it in Australia.
Its a pity for Ohio that Al Gore lost in 2000 – he had policies to get auto makers to invest in new, more economcial cars, that might have saved a lot of jobs in Ohio. But he lost and Bush just kept the current business status quo going, which was really a disastrous steady-as-she-sinks course for them. GM is practically broke now, and can hardly afford the investment to develop a new range of models.
Its a shame because historically it needn’t be a hick/redneck state. It was once once of the wealthiest states with a high average education level. But it has been on the slide for 15-20 years now.
So because they’ve voted Republican in the past it makes them a hick/redneck state?
I am sticking to my earlier prediction but I must admit if I was going to make a late change it would be to revise Obama’s margin up not down. When I did my guess for Julie I first estimated Obamas position from polls I believed then assumed that his lead would shrink by a third as poll day got closer. But with that almost upon us and all indicators steady, I think Obama will be headed for well over 320 EV now, maybe pushing 340.
ltep
Well see how Ohio was portrayed in the 4C show – not flattering. Ohio hasn’t always been republican either, but it is a fact that, demographically, the past decade has been unkind to Ohio. A lot of the young and educated people leave for jobs in other states (like SA in the 90s) leaving behind an Ohio population that is older and less educated. Comparatively, it is now a hick state.
Are today’s the last polls? If so it’s all good. PA has four polls 6-14% ahead, VA is 6%, NV 8% and OH 2-7% in three polls. NC is a toss-up and IN will stay red.
And Matty Drudge hasn’t found any new slime for his Headline.
“Its a pity for Ohio that Al Gore lost in 2000 ”
And also for some of those adjoining States like PA & MI….alot of re long term adjustments needed both econamic & social in those type of States
But then as I suggested th other day th difference of Carter vs Reagan winning now appears minr compared to Gore vs Bush winning with th multitude of terrible legacys in almost every area Bush has left economic , FA , social , legal , jurasprudence , human rights , wars , renditions , falsified intell to 2002 Senators etc etc…making Reagan look not so bad in comparison (except that Reaqgonomics madness)
Agreed Ron. The money Bush pulled out of health and education will have long term repercussions for the US economy. The poorer states will feel it worst, because they were the ones who could least afford to lose it (they couldn’t make up the difference with their own funds). It really is an amazing failure of rational self interest for poor people in poor states to vote in the Bush republicans. Sure they got the tax cuts but they lost far more ins ervices, becoming worse off. So they save $10/week in taxes, but have to find an extra $20/week to make up what they no longer get from the government. Meanwhile the rich save $30/week in taxes. The real numbers are larger than that, but you get the idea.
Ah yes, Ron @ 19, I remember your arithmetically challenged contributions from months ago as well. Good to see that you’re still running the long-since discredited ‘Hillary won the popular vote’ line (see http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/why-is-the-popular-vote-so-unp.php among many other debunkings). SNIP: Personalised unpleasantness deleted – The Management.
Suffice to say that you have defined a swing state as ‘those states that were thought to be swing states in Feb-May’. An idiosyncratic definition to be sure, but let’s take you at your word. To pick just one easy example, that definition includes Colorado; always known to be a crucial state the Dems were aiming to flip from 2004. Meaning that you’ve now clarified that your assertion that “Hillary won ALL of the swing states” was false.
I don’t need to rebut you, when you’re doing such a great job of rebutting yourself.
“It really is an amazing failure of rational self interest for poor people in poor states to vote in the Bush republicans”
I’ll stay away from my 19 ‘left’ issues with th candidate and just focus on th bnature of th Party system in US Both ar generlly ‘right’ in some respects with Republicons actualy concervative & Democrats centre right generally with US psche for free enterprise business (but with a left wing) There is not an absolute natural home (Party) for them to go to (before religion , north/south historicals , race etc come into play as well)
Hindsite may prove me very wrong but suspect electoral map with a big Obama win won’t restore th pre LBJ southern Democrat States leaving th new map paretly reliant on voting (with frank respect for Obam) “against” Republicons , against Bush , against Iraq , aginst renditions & most of all against th bailout & ecoanaic managemetn and holding that type of “new” electoral map long term may be diffiult unless Democrats become more centre ‘left’ (which I’d of course luv) but also encompassing ‘independents (to win that vitalvoting sector) in being moderate philosophically & socialy but reflect there US of A psche of nationalism so that Democrats gradualy win “as a norm” what should be a natural ‘poor’ constituncy & thereby such red states
Obama $1.07 McCain $7.00 on Sportsbet.
It was $1.14 to $5.00 a few days ago. Obviously some big money has come for Obama.
SimonH
#34
Deal with facts
Hillary won all th swing States Th swing States were those THEN that would POTUS
One has to deal with THEN (not as of now) as to what would then deliver POTUS that were swing States in opinion of all pundits not knowing a bailout etc would occur
I nominated them FL , MI , PA , OH , WV , IN (total 101 E/V’s)
And what do you nominate Colarado ? ….with a miserable 9 e/v’s
Now to demonstrate when hillarys Nomineeship campaign effectively concluded 30th May , not only had she wion those all RECOGNISED Swing States (to win th Presidency) in Primarys against Obama
….but that all swing State point of mine was ALSO reflected THEN THEN on electoral maps THEN….showing Hillary vs McCain 327/194 whereas Obama vs McCain 266/248….making ALL of th swing States hillary won swing and winning POTUS easily …..vs your 9 e/v Colarado absolutely academic
Suggest instead of rewriting history , move forward and actualy enjoy Obama winning seeing I’d assumed before your post thats what should hav been ALL that should hav been on winners minds
And to avoid my last post being read out of contest……on th last thread I said up front Obama won th Democrat Nomineeship against Hillary and now would be POTUS I then said th contest was close …it was , Obama won th pledged delegates by a 2% margan representing a close win …..but a win is always a win , and that made Obama th Democrat Nominee I then mentioned Hillary had won all th swing States , that Obama had won ‘red’ States & alot of affluent blue in Primarys etc , and referred also to Caucus results of obama’s ‘red’ states won adding to his pledged ddelegate totals , and finished off restating Obama is th nominee for th Democrat Party having won it in a Democrat race & now will be now POTUS It was a post to corect an earlier posters inacuracy
However denying Hillary what she won in both winning th swing States and losing by only a close 2% margan is not only inacurate but ungracous , which is why I responded I might add denying what Hillary actualy won ALSO camoflages not just th ineptitude of campaign Manager Mark Penn who was ‘forsed’ onto Hillary by hierachy ‘experts’ BUT camoflages th clever politcal strategy of Obama’s “axel’ in both Caucus’s and ‘red’ States to win actualy very decisive pledged delegates that won th Nomineeship not to mention th new use of th internet employed & many other plus’s and ‘erros’ of that close Primary race which an earlier poster had corectly said needed a PHd writen on it But that is history and tomorrow is for Obama’s supporters
McCain is out to 12.5 on Betfair, Obama 1.08, oh teh narrowing
Amid the concerns over vote rigging especially with touch screen voting machines, good to see that some people have not lost their sense of humour. This from a comment on the NYT:
“I have never received extra money from an ATM. Why is it so hard to make a solid voting machine?”
Dave, New Orleans
Grog, I got the change to 364 no worries
…….
Grog, did you still want No on Missouri with 364? Just checking as the higher you go, the more likely it is
Simon @ 471 (previous thread),
Simon, while that is true I don’t think it is going to last to California. If you want something to differentiate between the two of you (Al said CA/OR/WA/HI), then maybe you and he can work something out today? It has to be something that both of you can chose from as if it weren’t, that wouldn’t be fair. Al Franken might work excepting that is a 50/50 proposition and what if you both picked the same? That’s assuming that Al even checks in today too to see this post. If both of you read this, why don’t you post for me (and I’ll use this for anyone wants a 3rd tiebreaker) { it needs to be something political on the day and not one which has a chance of being close } the final percentage of the popular vote that Obama gets? I.e Reagan got 50.4% in 1980 if I remember one of yesterday’s posts correctly. I’ll use that if 311 turns up but only if you can both give me a percentage guess.
William,
Per several links on the net, first polls close at 6pm EST in Indiana and Kentucky. 6pm on the US east coast is 10am here, check this link http://24timezones.com/ They (US east coast) are now 4 hours off and the opposite time of day. Your charts times are all one hour too far ahead. Also, this link http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=gc
shows poll closing times too and the order is different from the order in your list, wonder what the URL was for the source data?
jj @ 6, I’ve got that now
Ron @ 19,
Whether he was on at one point or not, it doesn’t matter. The only thing that mattered in the primaries (and in any election) is how the ballot reads when it is in the voters hand. I had a Michigan ballot back in December 2007 for the January 08 primaries and Obama wasn’t on the ballot. You can dice words all you want but if I, as a registered Michigan voter, wasn’t able to vote for Obama in the primary, it doesn’t matter to me the convoluted route that it took the political system to get to that point.
The final nail in the coffin, as if McCain needed another one
Yes the time’s are off one hour because daylight savings time ended in the US. I think.
I note that at RCP, 3 of the four polls that came out for NC today point to a McCain win….and the only one to point to an Obama win was PPP
Haha Barry Cassidy just asked the Chairman of Democrats Abroad who he thinks the better President would be…
Obama’s grandmother died of cancer today. And his Nevada Campaign Director also died today of a heart attack at 44. Both would have been so proud tomorrow.
Drudge has the leaked spin from the Repugs on how to spin the exit polls favouring Obama (funnily enough they don’t mention that 1/3 of people have already voted disproportionately Dem and I’m not sure the exit polls will accurately pick this).
It’s psephological GOLD otherwise. It’s skewed but has oodles of great information. The full analysis is linked.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashmm.htm
What’s the point of spinning exit polls though?
Sad news for Obama!
Thoughts and prayers go out to him and his family!
What would be one of the best things if Obama wins tomorrow?
Seeing the looks on the faces of Matt Drudge, Rush Limbaugh, Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity etc
But the exit polls will be a skewed sample, because a lot of Demoracts have already voted.
ltep
From the article
There is a lot of talk that if they call the election early based on exit polls for Obama when he wins VA and OH (unless Diebold strikes again) that disillusioned GOP voters in NM, NV and CO won’t bother voting. It’s fair enough.
Ltep
I’d assume that it would be to not let the voters out West get downhearted by exit polls…
Dio,
Hearing that, this seems extremely shallow
I don’t care why they are bloody whinging about it, the timing is extremely ordinary imho
Hope all of the Repubs roast on the funeral pyre tomorrow ……………..
Julie: why am I not surprised? Those people are scum!
They deserve to get soundly defeated tomorrow!
Ignoring the Republicans, what impact will his Grandmother’s death have?
Any chance there will be a sympathy vote?
“Well I don’t give a crap about of the issues, including the war, the economy, healing our divided changing, generational change, social issues, health or education but that guys grandmother died so I’ll vote for him”.
I don’t think anyone that apathetic would bother waiting in a line to vote.
How long before Palin accuses Obama’s grandma of deliberately dying the day before the election to swing the undecided and therefore infringing her Constitutional right to be the dumbest, most ignorant VP ever.
Since yesterday, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia has all firmed for Obama on Intrade.
As I suspected last night, Missouri has flipped back to Obama, but it is still very close. In fact that state could be the big mystery tomorrow.
Typical GOP slime. May they rot in hell.
So has anyone sussed out what the best website to watch results coming in is?
“I don’t think anyone that apathetic would bother waiting in a line to vote.”
People get pretty irrational about death in my experience. Remember when every TV station took its programming off the air for 48 hours because some minor English royal died in a car crash?
Ha Ha Ha ……
…..
We want to know about poll closing times?
…… CNN have a countdown ticker on their screen right now … don’t know if CNN international will have it but CNN International (at present) have cut straight away to the CNN US feed ….. count down to when the first polls close 
Holy Crap! McCain’s win percentage on http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ drops to 1.9%!
Nate’s currently writing perhaps the second last “Today’s polls” post.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/mattbors;_ylt=AkqzF6vNsqs9blGCqY5zwB3V.i8C
I’d just like to say that Doonesbury makes me feel like i’m not crazy. Him and John Stewart.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/doonesbury;_ylt=AjhsEpDbt7hxC0IFlT5LTOoDwLAF
Dammit, wrong cartoon
Gallup – registered 53-40!!!
likely voters (trad): 53-42
likely votes (expand): 53-42.
And Juliem – yep BO will take MO.
sorry link for 72 – http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx
Dario,
Huffingtonpost.com and talkingpointmemo.com and theyoungturks.com
WHERE DA WHITE WOMEN AT!?
Thx jj
McCain’s win percentage on Intrade is now 9.9%, first time it has been below 10.
Dario,
If you want a more bombastic live stream commentary: theyoungturks.com. Check it out right now with site owner and speaker Cenk talking.
Link:
http://www.theyoungturks.com/
That comment was the exact kind of thing that I love about Stewart. He’s being funny, yes. But he’s also pointing out that the fear of Obama is so effin ridiculous. It’s one thing to not like Obama because of policy or other candidates etc but its an entire other thing to be ’scared’ that he may in fact be the personification of the dark reaches of the human brain.
Stewart has an ability to make light of something that is quite depressing (i.e. people giving in to that fear). And I think that helps keep me sane.
Julie,
‘Onya for my contest update.
Your selection of MO for tiebreaker a couple weeks ago has turned out to be spot on. It flips on Intrade daily!
Can’t stream at the moment as I am behind a firewall but will try later on when I get home
I think the best comedy is also good social commentary. Stewart and Colbert are two of the best. Colbert’s roasting of President Bush is one of the best pieces of comedy, theatre, and political activism I’ve ever seen.
Paul Keating once said when you change a government in Australia, you change the country. Well when you change the President of the United States, you change the world.
Julie,
I check almost every day; I just only post when I’ve got something worth saying. How about the tie-tie breaker being the time at which McCain goes on stage to concede (assuming he loses)? For myself, I’d guess he’d be wondering on stage at about 11:41pm EST (or 3:41pm AEDT).
Here’s hoping….
al, between you and simon …. if he wants to go wtih that that works for me, we’ll just see whose time is closer ….. back later, have kids home today, ACT has melbourne cup day as a holiday ….
CNN just showed Obama speech live at rally, and he needed to wipe away tears speaking about his grandmother and her common sense. Can’t imagine how he must be feeling.
evan14 you do realise that those guys you mentioned will become more influential if a Democrat wins.
How so Glen?
A week ago the Palin campaign promised to release her medical records before election day. Now it’s the evening before, and she remains the only one of the four who did not release her records. If this was a Democratic candidate, the question is whether the media would be jumping on it, but they certainly are not jumping on it.
On the positive side, the newspaper in Cheney’s home town in Wyoming (where he was the House of Reps member long ago) has ignored his “delighted” endorsement of McCain/Palin to endorse Obama. Over 50 newspapers nationwide which endorsed Bush in 2004 have switched to endorse Obama, and only 15 have gone the other way. Kerry barely beat bush in total newspaper endorsements, but Obama has beaten McCain by over 2 to 1 and in terms of total readership 3 to 1.
Because they will be the only ones in the media holding him accountable.
They don’t want people to know she has no brain.
THE MEDIA! It is STEALING MY MIND!
Glen: you call Limbaugh and Hannity credible journalists?
That is funny!
But if you want to put your lot in with the dregs of the far right, go ahead!
After Obama’s grandmother passed away, it just highlights how sick Limbaugh’s claim last week was that Obama was only going to Hawaii to try and make sure his “birth certificate” wouldn’t be released.
I call them journalists, i only hope more journalists hold Obama to account better than they have in the past year.
I would call Limbaugh Right wing, Hannity is Right win but not a looney Right winger and Bill is Right/Centre-Right.
The sad thing is that these people have been the only ones essentially to stand up and criticise Obama for his failings because nobody else has.
I find the fact that people think they’re entitled to view candidates’ birth certificates and medical records a bit weird.
Obama supporters have literally gone mad to support him.
Seriously nobody including McCain is a prophet and neither of them are perfect.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/toby_harnden/blog/2008/11/03/barack_obama_described_as_prophet_moses_by_bishop
Er I don’t think there’s any issue with viewing the medical records of someone in such a powerful position.
Glen
Limbaugh, Hannity and O’Reilly aren’t journalists, they are pundits. Olbermann isn’t a journalist either. They just give their opinions. That’s not journalism.
It’s religion Glen. It addles heads I tell you.
I hope the sycophantic left-wing bloggers in the US actually hold Obama to all the promises he’s made and don’t just capitulate and turn into apologists like their right-wing counterparts.
Oz, I do. Medical records are noone’s business but our own.
Of course they will Oz, you only need to read Australian political blogs to see the same thing happening.
Classic Red State Update Video
Red State Update: Obama’s Aunt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-TLRM1vUTY
Even they think Obama will win.
Bill O’Reilly is a journalist, he’s giving opinions nows though.
Glen
Being a critic of a popular adminstration does not make you influential. Ask all those cast out of the Whitehouse pressroom in the lead up to Iraq how influential they are.
Election eve in Chicago – every news story here is about the bloody election.
All the talk in Chicago is about Obama’s election night party, how much tickets cost and what you should do if you don’t have tickets.
There is virtually no talk of a McCain win atm, although every Democrat on TV is cautioning against complacency.
As an aside, last night, when I was driving back from New Hampshire to Boston, I saw McCain’s motorcade going to other way to address a rally in Peterborough. I’ve got to say – he has one huge motorcade – at least 20 vehicles plus the “Straight Talk Express” bus.
Everything in the US is bigger than Australia – politics included.
Juiliem
An eleventh hour update to EV guess:
353 – Obama to win VA,FL & NC but fall short of MO
Colorardo as the the first state over the 270 line
Do you have a summary of predictions floating around anywhere?
What do you mean? Do you mean they will hold him to account or turn into apologists?
I don’t think the left-wing bloggers in Australia are anywhere near in love with Labor as the “left” are with Obama in the US.
They will turn into apologists. Just wait and see. I beg to differ on your second sentence.
George W Bush thinks of HIMSELF as a prophet. That’s much worse.
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/11/michigan-electi.html
Can we even take this election seriously?
Why didn’t they publish the exact figures?
Were they out by 10%, or 0.1%?
For sure Glen, that’s the same “libral” US media that blew out of all proportion the importance of first, Rev. Wright, and then Bill Ayres, and third, Joe the Plumber.
And the same US media gave Sarah Palin an easy run with no press conferences and no release of medical records, and most particularly on the finding that she’d violated Alaska’s ethics statutes. No doubt they will not, for the next 4 years, be even slightly critical of Obama!
“Smears and marks” are what they Count Clerk said contribute to them being read differently every time.
I think going from a margin of 750 votes (25%) to 158 (4%) is fairly significant…
jj @ 90,
They’ve got more important things to deal with. Republicans are giving me ulcers today
……
I wonder if the rumors about Trig are true and that is why she doesn’t want to release her medical records?
*County clerk.
There must be something going on for them to withold it
Which rumours? That Trig is actually her grandson?
I always thought it was a strange coincidence that that when that rumour started floating around, it was the very next day that Palin announced her daughter was pregnant.
108, got that no worries
…. see #88 the US thread JUST prior to this one. it has the list excepting about a half dozen or so changes in the last 24 hours.
worktorule, you made one heap of a big change
…. glad to see you are “getting in sync with the news” 
…….
Juliem
Thought I’d better take a crack at the prediction game. So here goes
EVs Obama 319
The tipping state: Colorado
Missouri: No – will not go with the winner for just the second time in 100+ years. But just a handful of votes in it.
Oz @ 119,
While I don’t trade in rumors (if I get any piece of political news from a website that I don’t trust, I always try to verify it), take this as my .02 worth.
I don’t know how much time you’ve spent around females who’ve been pregnant in your life? I’m 47 and have had 4 kids over my adult life. I know from my own experience what a woman looks like at various stages of pregnancy, whether she is or is not carrying a lot of extra pregnancy weight. I saw a pic of Palin (when I was doing my own net research on this topic around the time of the RNC) that was taken, if the caption was accurate, when she was 7 months along. There is no WAY that was a picture of a 7 months pregnant woman. I was bigger than that when I was only 3 months along. Nicole was bigger than that when was 9 months along with Sunday Rose. Uh, no. Somethings rotten in Wasilla, Alaska.
Darn, got that in for you
….. deadline for one and all for changes or entries, 10pm tonight …..
juliem,
Yep, I’ve been expected a narrowing for the last few weeks – can’t see anything like that happening now.
Still wondering about such factors as democrat strength on the ground, under sampling of the youth vote, early votes being locked away and not subject to any late swing and the potentual for capitulation from the republican voters.
Guess we’ll have to wait and see – can’t see any way home to McCain.
The second Troopergate report is due out any minute apparently… should be fun
ltep @ 110
I agree with you on both counts. If Howie did some of the things Rudd has done people here would have gone berserk. It’ll be the same in the US. Decent commentators like Glenn Greenwald won’t fall for it but most will.
On Palin and her medical records, there has to be something bad in there or she would have released them. If they said she’s fit and never had a problem, they would be out. My guess is that she has had a mental illness, most probably post-natal depression, which has fully resolved but she remembers what happened to Eagleton.
Strange that Fox aren’t chasing Palin’s medical records the way they have been chasing that tape which allegedly reveals Obama as an anti-semite.
This is the mob who have the gall to criticise other media outlets for taking sides. Hypocrites.
Obama now leads in Indiana, Montana and Missouri on my polling aggregates.
Palin cleared of wrongdoing by second troopergate report.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D947PVBG0&show_article=1
Is this the one she wrote with her own crayolas?
Bill O’Riely is a moron because he thinks everyone is entitled to their own truth. People that can’t differentiate opinions from truth are by definition moronic.
i saw that hollywood stars will commit suicide and there will be blood in the streets if Obama does not win tomorrow. hmmmm, is this democracy 2008 style and the chosen one? mandate from heaven to win?
My fellow black travelling companions from LA, who have pre-voted for Obama, still think there is no certainty. Like me, they also think Obama should be 15+, even at this late stage. Mr. Bradley is still awaiting with a baseball bat.
Diog, my Macchu Picchu message could still be right. dont count your chickens yet. cheers from Bariloche, the most beuatiful spot my eyes have seen so far in my travels.
Finns
G’day mate! Have you had that “Diogenes was right” T-shirt made up yet? Obama would be 15% plus up if he was running against Bush, Cheney or Rummie but McCain was the Repugs most electable candidate and they did well to choose him, just as Obama was the Dems most electable candidate and they did well to choose him.
It’s the one written by the Alaska Personnel Board – a few people hand selected by Palin and whose jobs rely upon Palin’s good favour.
Compare that to the bi-partisan legislative commission made up of people who are responsible to Palin, but the electors.
The normally mild-mannered Josh Marshall spat the dummy today on the subject of Sarah Palin. Made me laugh out loud, so I’ll share his assessment with youse:
Argentina is incredible, lucky guy.
Well now folks, here it is election day, and I hate to say it when you’ve all opened the champagne already, but it’s still close enough to go either way. These are Obama’s current leads: IA 13%, NM 8%, CO 7%, NV 6%, OH 5%, VA 5%, FL 4%, NC 2%. Obviously IA is safe for Obama, and NM probably so. He only needs one more, and CO and NV look pretty good. But in a country with voluntary voting, an antiquated and corrupt electoral system and a deep, hidden vein of racism, who can say how accurate these polls really are? I expect a late narrowing. Kindly recall that after all the abuse heaped on people who said last year there would be a narrowing, there was indeed a narrowing. Narrowing happens – when people are contemplating a shift to the left, some lose their nerve at the last minute. So Obama may well not carry FL or NC. It will then come down to CO, NV, OH and VA. Obama is ahead in all of them, but they are within the “range of loseability.”
My biggest gripe with the polls is how wildly divergent they’ve been. Yes they’ve all got Obama in front, and I still expect him to win, but they continue to fluctuate between 2-15 points up.
I don’t except the final result to be anything like the RCP prediction William has at the top.
jjulian1009
“That’s the same “libral” US media that blew out of all proportion the importance of first, Rev. Wright, and then Bill Ayres, and third, Joe the Plumber.”
Ahh Rev. Wright was Obamas pastor for 20 years, Bill Ayres was an aquaintence of Obama and Obama couldnt convince Joe that he’d be better off under his tax plan.
If you cannot criticise Obama on any of these then how can you?
For someone who listens to Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s sermons every Sunday and has a wife who says she was only proud to be an American when her husband was nominated and who felt…Obama is not your average American.
134 – How did Argentina ever spiral down to almost to a third world country is still a big puzzle, even to the locals. argentine beef is simply sensetional. there is nothing like it in OZ. Save your money to come to a hotel calleds Lhao Lhao here atBariloche, it? as close as to heaven you get on earth. better than swiss, norway and our friend at NZ.
I agree but Obama only has to win one of them. Even if you make each one 50/50, the chance of McCain winning all four is 16/1. I’ve gone with Obama winning CO, NV and VA with Diebold getting McCain over the line in OH (again).
Glen, I think Joe the Plumber is a dead horse. His name’s not Joe, he’s not a plumber, he doesn’t earn 250,000 a year, he’d be better off under Obama’s tax plan and he’s a proved liar.
The voters know all there is to know about Ayers and Wright, and they don’t much care. What are Ayers and Wright compared to Enron and $70bn to clean up Bush’s mess on Wall St? Bupkes.
concise view of each candidates policies.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/04/john-mccain-barack-obama-policies
The odds on an electoral college win are stacked up McCain will need Florida, Ohio and to manage to win from way behind, CO, VA, NV and maybe NH to make up for New Mexico.
Obama is the clear favourite, McCain only if the narrowing continues and there is a Bradley effect.
How you can trust VA? CO and NV seem to more favourable to Obama then I expected earlier on, and with a 50/50 chance he’ll win one of them.
IMF.
His middle name is Joe.
Well if Obama is happy listening to anti-american, anti-white statements from Jeremiah Wright every Sunday and his wife was never proud of her country till now they are bloody important.
Diogenes, I probably agree, but I always try to remember that psephology is not an exact science, and particularly not in the US, where irrationalism reigns at so many levels.
Glen, not to the voters. You said the same thing last year about “union bosses”, remember?
The next someone mentions the “I’m an idiot pollster who can’t accept I made a mistake” effect I will hunt them down and throw their computer, tv and radio out the window. No coverage for you!
WE’RE COMIN’ BACK!
Unions=BOO
How would you know?
The media never ran it all out and most media outlets dropped the story and let Obama off the hook. If it was a white inexperienced Senator who listened to a pastor saying how bad black people are he’d be destroyed…but not Obama noooo!
Juliem,
A bit more thought and one more change. My guess for the CNN tipping point state is California. I’m guessing it will be called soon after closing whereas nevada, new mexico and colorardo (which have a head start) will take some time to call.
I’m also tipping McCain for a graceful concession speech and Palin for a dummy spit.
Saw a former Republican Secretary of State on Fox last night crying in his beer over the pending Obama win.
According to him, Obama is a con man buying his way into power with all this money and we don’t even know where it’s coming from (the implication being that it’s probably coming from some shady outfit, rather than millions of ordinary citizens who have just had a gut full of Bush and his neocons).
He then went on to say that if Obama can’t buy it, he’s going to steal it through the activites of this evil mob ACORN.
Talk about sour grapes. He’s got all his pathetic excuses ready. Don’t you just love it. Australia Nov 07 re-visited.
“the narrowing”
Just like “the narrowing” before the last Oz election, eh Glen?
Here’s my prediction, which I think errs on the side of caution:
Obama to take IA, NM, VA, OH, FL, CO & NV, with North Carolina falling to McCain by a bee’s dick and possibly taking several days/weeks to finalise. Obama won’t get Missouri, Georgia, Indiana or Montana.
That gives us Obama 338, McCain 200. I think, if anything else, the Obama numbers could be higher, if he manages to snatch any of the above, with NC being most likely. I think the only way Obama could get less than the above number is if dodgy voting systems plague us again. That’s hard to predict, but a definite possibility.
I have said Obama is the favourite and most likely winner tomorrow, get off my back already!
Adam,
All you say about Joe the Plumber may be true. However, why has this small time nobody had his life dissected by the ravaging hordes of the press and blogospehere simply because he asked a question of Obama that he could not answer?
Bulldusting is not a crime, it’s a pass time as many here on PB can attest.
The vendetta against Joe by the Obama luvvies is not a pretty sight and raises serious questions about how dissent and thought crimes will be dealt with by the new administration.
It was McCain who chose to put Sam Wurzelmangle or whatever his name is before the public as a symbol of his policies. As with Palin, the Repubs failed to check the guy’s bona fides first. You can’t blame the Dems and the liberal media for going after him, just as the conservative media have gone after Ayers and Wright.
Patrick, there WAS a narrowing in 2007, OK? Learn your history before you start sniping.
Adam
Wasn’t the narrowing in 2007 mainly in the ballot box? The polls tightened only a little, as in the US but the final result was “narrower” than the polls indicated.
“Joe are you there?, Joe I know your there, Joe are you there ?Joe,Is joe the plumber here?, joe where are you?Oh well we’re all joe the plumber….”
these will go down as THE lines of the campaign.”
btw where the hell is joe anyway ffs?
Adam,
Obama couldn’t handle the direct question and that is why Joe has been crucified. He caught Obama unprepared. If Obama with his Law Scool education and vast amount of experience can be done over by a question from a local yokel, then it raises questions about Obama’s ability to deal with events as they unfold.
The Narrowing:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/polls.shtml
GG, the presidency is not a quiz show.
Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy all produced their closest polls of the year immediately before the election.
Yes, and they all showed a late swing back to the Libs, aka The Narrowing.
Well they produced a poll closest to the result immediately before the election. There’s no way of testing the accuracy of a poll unless there is an election and you can’t completely discount that there was a real change in voting preference between the penultimate and final polls.
Adam
In an otherwise excellent summary of the 2007 election on your site, I found a particularly egregious error which besmirches an otherwise brilliantly perceptive and accurate article. At one point you say;
Adam,
Indeed it is not. However, for me, the reaction to Joe the Plumber is why I worry more about the thinness of Obama’s skin rather than its colour.
I try to be modest about these things, Diogenes.
Why aren’t people allowed to call Joe the Liar a plumber? I mean Joe the Plumber a liar?
He lies. Isn’t that an open and shut case?
The anti Obama brigade are becoming a bit testy here. I can understand it I suppose. Afterall if it was Hilliary running ……
GG, as I think you will recall, Obama was not my first choice this year. I still think Clinton would be vying for Utah and Wyoming at this point in the campaign, although this of course can’t be proved. But my opinion Obama has gone up substantially. Far from being thin-skinned, he has proved cool under pressure, has hardly put a foot wrong (since the Berlin rally, anyway), and has outsmarted the Repub attack machine at every turn. His address the other night was much more substantial and convincing than his earlier windy speeches. I still don’t have as much confidence that he will be a good president than I would have had about Gore or Clinton, but I have much more than I had two months ago.
I think that’s exactly what happened, LTEP, and that’s my understanding of what was meant by a “narrowing”: that a number of former Liberal voters who had toyed with switching decided to favour the devil they knew when the crunch came. That Dennis Shanahan was – God forbid! – partly right.
Informed sources reckon that the “narrowing” started on Tuesday night, peaked on Wednesday, drifted on Thursday before a small late movement back to the ALP on the Friday for a total movement of two points, of which about a points worth came from undecideds breaking to incumbency and another points worth came from what the dreaded “soft Labor vote”.
“That Dennis Shanahan was – God forbid! – partly right.”
William wash your mouth out with soap now!
dennis is never wrong -just misunderstood
Particularly in Kooyong.
Actually, for anyone who hasn’t read it Adam’s Post-mortem of the Oz election really is superb. It even includes the infamous Adam v Possum cage match, with GG as Possum’s trainer. GG, I’m amazed you criticised Adam for dissing Possum’s numbers given your reticence about reducing elections to mathematical contests.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/commentary6.shtml
Hillary would’ve already won. The election would’ve been brought forward to Monday.
And Ron as Adam’s trainer?
Noting what happened last November here, surely at this point nobody thinks any “narrowing” in the US will be enought to change the POTUS result? Obama is +7 to +9 points ahead. Even a 2 point “narrowing” still leaves him with a clear margin.
Is there any US polling past history on whether poll narrowing in the run up to US elections is the same if the president is not standing for reelection? It would seem to me that if the predecessor had been adequate there might be some incumbency advantage if they ran again or the VP ran to take over, as with Bush Snr and Gore. In this case I see no such advantage.
As I said some ways back, I think there will be a narrowing, but I doubt it will be enough to stop Obama winning IA, NM, CO, VA and NV, and thus the election. I don’t think he will win MO or NC. I am agnostic on OH and FL.
ShowsOn,
Read the thread more carefully. The issue is not Joe, but the over reaching persecution and vilification of an ordinary man because he caught the “anointed” one off guard and embarassed him in front of the nation.
No one is allowed to to that are they?
Socrates
If you look at William’s previous blog, there has been a “narrowing” in each of the last four elections. Can’t comment about incumbency from that though.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/10/26/presidential-election-minus-10-days/
GG, Wurzelfurzle was not persecuted or vilified. He was correctly exposed as a liar who falsely claimed that he would be worse off under Obama’s tax plan. What on earth do you expect the Dems and the media to do? Give him a free pass? You think Fox News or the WSJ would have given him a free pass if he had been a Dem?
In kind of weird, sad and happy news, Obama’s grandmother voted absentee and her vote will be counted tomorrow despite her death.
Joe/Sam the plumber is indeed an ordinary man, just one of the people that you meet, when your walking down the street each day. He certainly wasn’t a political prop:
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/colbert-report-mccain-campaign-reaches-out
Get GGed, read my posts more carefully. I couldn’t careless how you are trying to defend Joe the Liar. He expressed the lie that Obama would stop the U.S. from being an ally of Israel, and was called out on it on Fox News!
WTF are you going on about? Why can’t people criticise Joe the Liar? He is now a member of the McCain campaign. If you start making public comments, then you are open to public criticism.
Diogenes,
Old stoushes and fierce arguments is what political discourse is all about. No babies got hurt. But, a few egos (including mine) were dented. So, all in all, a good result and fun was had by all.
Nick,
I ummed and erred about North Carolina too. In the end, I decided the high level of early voters linked with the above average proportion of black voters potentually means a higher overall turnout of black voters. There been a fair bit of anecdoate evidence (for what it’s worth) of this over the last couple of weeks. If true, it should be enough for obama to hold his narrow advantage in NC
A warning note for tomorrow. The pre-polling in this election has been higher than ever before, over 30% in some states. Since these voters have been disproportionately enthusiastic Democrats, that means that the exit polls tomorrow morning will be skewed in favour of McCain.
Looking at the humorous side, has everyone seen the latest SNL clip of Sarah Fey – Palin with “Hillary”? ROTFL as they say in Athens.
Previously I had never been much of a fan of Will Ferrill but his impersonation of Bush giving McCain an endorsement was also very good.
The Palin/Clinton press conference sketch was my favourite by far.
But since the exit polls are done in person, that will cancel out the mobile phone only factor. So things may just even out.
ShowsOn,
You are very predicatable. You are all dribbling derivative. No original idea would ever infest one of your posts.
According to Princeton, even with an overnight 2% swing to McCain, Obama still gets to 278 SOLID votes, with Florida in doubt:
http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/03/mac-finishing-strong/
I think more likely most of the polls have been undervaluing Obama’s vote by 1 – 2 due to lack of mobile phones.
socrates
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/33f2687080/good-cop-baby-cop-from-will-ferrell-and-adam-ghost-panther-mckay?PHPSESSID=d829f662273c874dd9261bd4d82bc5e8
Adam, i would say exit polls will put Obama way ahead, just as they put Kerry ahead by 5 points…exit polls generally trend towards inflating the Democrat vote. I suspect they will be all bad news for McCain.
I still think i could of stomached Clinton winning, if only she would be President on Wednesday and not Barack.
The ‘mobile phone only’ angle is not believable.
Oh so sorry, I didn’t realise my job is to entertain you. I’ll commence making you feel happier about life ASAP!
Adam
Some of the exit polls have included pre-polls to try to counter that problem. McCain’s team has an excellent TPM on Drudge saying that exit polls will favour Obama for a few reasons. Who knows what the truth will be. I don’t think any of the close states will be called on exit polls.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashmm.htm
Why not? All the firms that poll mobile phones give Obama bigger leads:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html
The question is, will that mobile phone only demographic turn out?
Sadly we have to put up with The Loser until January 20.
Why are we argunig about a narrowing that may or may not have occurred a year ago.
Howard lost his seat and the Libs got the thrashing they deserved. Enough said.
I don’t know. After all, there is no incumbent to narrow towards.
ShowsOn, that doesn’t mean the firms that sample mobile users are more accurate than the ones who don’t but weight their polling accordingly.
Of course not, I didn’t say that. It just seems that there is a trend that different firms, using different methodologies, that share this one similarity all show bigger margins for Obama. I think that is significant, of course with the qualification that it doesn’t mean they will actually go and vote. But that is a likely voter issue.
William – you might find this an interesting addition to the Hopkins paper on the Bradley Effect:
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2514
Reserve drops interest rates by 0.75%.
Glen, my point was that a huge chunk of Dems won’t be voting tomorrow, because they have already voted. Since the exit polls will only be sampling those who vote on Tuesday, they will be skewed towards McCain. So don’t start crowing if an exit poll shows McCain winning Virginia, for example.
Actually, the interest rate drop should be on the other thread but you could argue that GWB has been responsible for it!
Yes but equally a huge chunk of Dems will vote on the day, they are ahead in the polls and they will turn out on the day too.
Dem voters are also more likely to participate in exit polls also.
I suspect McCain will look as though he is heading for a Mondale defeat given the exit polls are likely to favour Obama but i have put myself down for a 292 EV win for Obama.
Can I be bothered trying to explain elementary statistics to you, Glen? If Dems have voted disproportionately heavily *before* election day in a given state, it follows that they cannot also vote disproportionately heavily *on* election day.
It depends how well voters turn out for McCain does it not?
Glen
If a big chunk of Dems vote before the election, and on election day, then The Dems win by a “huge chunk”.
And you’ve got 291 EV. I’ve got 292 EV (I’m including one EV from Nebraska which splits it’s votes).
Not that many have turned out early…alot but lets not blow it out of proportion the Dems will still be favoured in exit polls…dont worry Adam i most surely wont be crowing about anything much on election day, i dont think much will go my sides way.
Suppose we have a state which has 50% McCain voters and 50% Obama voters. Suppose half of them vote before election day. Suppose these votes split 60/40 for Obama, because more Democrats than Republicans have decided to vote early. Therefore, the vote cast on election day must split 60/40 for McCain, and an exit poll taken on election will show McCain winning, even though he is not in fact winning. I don’t see why this is so hard to grasp.
Unless they factor in statistically the pre-poll votes into their exit polls?
Not necessarily Adam, as i said before it all depends on who participates.
If 30% of those 40% participate and only 20% of the 60% participate for McCain it will favour Obama…understand?
Participation counts.
How about nearly 70% of the 2004 voter turnout in Colorado? 60% in Georgia? 47% in Florida?
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/1/183811/930/671/649210
3.75 million have altready voted in FL, 2m in FL, 600,000 in NV
oops, 2m in GA I meant.
That assumes 2004 turnout remains the same, it may be higher this year given the interest.
Glen by ‘participate’ you’re talking about participation in the exit polls right?
I carefully said “70% of the 2004 turnout”. Of course turnout will be higher this year, mainly because of Obama registration drives. But it’s not going to be double or treble the 2004 turnout. So these are still big numbers.
I don’t think Glen has a clue what he’s talking about.
Adam, I note that you are “agnostic on OH and FL.” Thus leaving 47 EVs on the table. Does this mean you’re not making a forecast this time round?
WTR, I think Obama will win IA, NM, CO, NV and probably VA. That will get him elected.
Adam
Do you have a holiday in Canberra today for the Melbourne Cup? Can’t Rudd make Cup Day a national holiday and scrap the stupid local holidays eg Adelaide Cup holiday?
Itep yes. I mean those who would be willing to be involved in an exit poll.
Adam i dont deny there are big numbers voing early. Im not quite sure why you have it out for me on this.
Anyway we’ll find out who was right on exit polls tomorrow.
EXACTLY
….. for all my excitement of the Democrats winning tomorrow, I chose to live here 
It’s officially “Family and Community Fun Day” in the ACT.
It’s Family and Community Day in the ACT, which is proclaimed on a yearly basis (I think). I believe it was set up in a way to protest WorkChoices.
Glen and other Libs out there,
OT to the US election …… I get a subscription to The Monthly magazine. The November issue arrived in the mail a few days ago. On page 17/18/19 is a short but detailed article about Barry O’Farrell called “Following Menzies”. Not that I agree with BOF, but those of your ilk will really like this article. Don’t know when the newstands put up the November issue though.
Dio @ 214,
Thanks for reminding me about that deal in Nebraska, I had forgotten about that
William, I’m adding one to my vote, no worries about now needing a tiebreaker
I will have to put up with pictures of Rudd for some time i believe.
I am most looking forward too the Liberals in Power out November 17.
Only in America can a social organiser, come State politician become President in 4 years of the most powerful country on earth…with though the help of the media.
Cry me a river
I would have thought that was the American ideal. Anyone can become president if they set their mind to it. It looks like Obama will live it. I really don’t see the problem.
I wont be the one crying, it is not my country. I’ll feel sorry for McCain.
I bet you didnt cry when Bush and Howard won in 2004.
Hang on, on second thoughts I do know what the problem for Glen is. It’s not someone from his side of politics.
Jeepers Julie, I had already added Omaha to my EV’s because I was trying to be the most mavericky maverick in your contest! :> )
Anyway, here’s my 100% lock prediction:
Tomorrow the USA will elect its first sitting U.S. Senator since Kennedy.
If Obama wins, it will be the first non-Southerner Democratic Prez since Kennedy.
“Anybody here seen my old friend, John? Can you tell me where he’s gone?”
If he is so bad, then how bad is the Repbulican Party at not being able to expose his flaws.
And given you don’t think he is experienced enough, please let us know what is the prerequisite for becoming the leader of a democracy? Silly me I thought it had to do with winning an eleciton – but I’d love to know the necessary steps one must do – it’ll help narrow the field for us in 2012…
Simple…more than what Obama has.
I hope if he does win he doesnt fluff it up, but given how much of a greenhorn he is who knows.
I want America to be back on her feet again regardless of who is in power in Washington.
Obama will deserve respect for winning the election if he does. But McCain has already done enough in his life to earn respect.
Grog,
I keep meaning to tell you how much I dig your thingy from “All the President’s Men”!
I have the DVD grog.
I’ll ask the question I asked some time back. How do you go into a presidential election, without being an incumbant, having presidential experience? ALL new presidents learn on the job, you don’t train for it before hand.
I think Glen is referring to executive experience. I personally think its irrelevant, but to each their own.
Obviously, if the electors take a look at a candidate and decide they are up for the job then they have earned the right to give it a go. If they prove themselves to not be up to it they can be turfed out at the next election.
ltep 146 – I agree with you.
Juliem
#123 (today)
“While I don’t trade in rumors…”
You then proceeded to assert on YOUR viewing of Sarah Palin at 7 months that she was not 7 months pregnant
You conveniently ignore th baby was born in a proper medical centre surrounded by Doctors & nurses all of whom would hav be “in” on your conspiaracy that Sarah Palin’s baby did not appear from her body You then conveniently forget as VP her whole life including pregnancy & ‘age’ of baby was fully scrutinized by credible Media (& probabley by th Obama team as well obviousley as it would hav required her resignation) …..yet no doctor , no nurse , no credible Media , no Obama team hav made this allegation………..but you do sitting 12,000 kilometres away in Australia looking at a photo
You sanctimoniously criticise th “right” for dealing in unsubstantiated sleeze and yet ar happy to do exactly th same thing ….but then you hav not been alone on this Site in such double standards
Sarah Palin deserved more than th various ‘mud” this Site’s Obama supporters has posted about herwhilst trooergate , her inexperience & her policys were legitamate issues , her pregnancy down syndrome baby child she bore (amongst other ‘mud’ posted here on her) was indecent
Both sides of the political spectrum use this as an argument at same stage or other in the political cycle but when you think about it if we relied on experience as the criteria for government that would rule out any long term opposition from ever winning government.
Adam, I think most here would agree that Obama will take “IA, NM, CO, NV and probably VA” and thus win. But those are the easy calls.
Seem to me the real game is calling FL and OH and to a lesser extent NC and MO.
Do you have an point estimate of Obama’s final EV count?
Ron, I’m prepared to say that you have made a valid criticism in that post but when you start tarring us all with the one brush that is going too far. You owe it to us all to elaborate and detail the “other ‘mud’ posted here on her” and by who?
I would also like to remind you of the mud you’ve thrown at Obama (remember “his oiliness?). People in glass houses ….. Ron.
We should get the vote from Dixville Notch soon, since it’s after 12 in NH now, and then we can extrapolate from that.
Dixville Notch goes to Obama 15-6. It’s a historically Republican precinct that went 21 to 5 for Bush in 2000 and 19 to 7 again in 2004. It’s a good sign, but doesn’t really mean anything… yet!
What’s Dixville Notch?
Al, where in hades did you find that Dixville Notch vote? Hat’s off to you, mate!
New Hampsire
Kind of like the siting the first groundhog kind of thing!
That’s the first time the Dems have carried Dixville Notch since 1968, when Humphrey carried it 8 to 4. Of course Nixon carried NH and won the election, so don’t get too excited. But it is a good sign for the Dems
Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location are two small towns in New Hampshire. NH electoral law says that towns under 100 people can close their polls whenever all eligible voters have voted, so traditionally the two towns get all the eligible voters together at midnight to cast their ballots, and then announce the results soon after. They also both vote early for the Dem and Repub primaries.
Hampshire and sighting–sheesh!
It’s a tiny town in NH on the Canadian border. They all vote at midnight so their votes get announced first.
But, but Adam, this is a huge widening from 8 to 4! lol
My mother and her family are from around that neck of the woods, so to speak.
Palin’s medial ‘records’ have just been released, or rather a 2 page letter from her doctor. Ridiculous.
http://media.adn.com/smedia/2008/11/03/19/110308SHP.source.prod_affiliate.7.pdf
Well that letter doesn’t seem overly intrusive. I still am not sure why details of her pregnancy is anyone’s business other than her own.
OK, extrapolating from Dixville Notch. In 2004 Bush beat Kerry 73% to 27%. This time Obama beat McCain 71% to 29%. That’s a swing of 44%. On that basis Obama will win all 50 states.
She’s running for Vice-President
Gary, im talking years in politics and what they’ve done in those years. Obama has done nothing McCain has done alot. That’s my indicator i know there is no such thing as Presidential experience but even JFK had more experience than Obama and he’d been a Congressman, Military Officer and Senator before being President…
My BS meter went off at that so I stopped reading
Dario,
Compared with the Governor’s Veep candidate press conferences (zero, zilch, zip, nada, etc.), this is like getting a folio of all Shakespeare’s plays. In what way this statement from a doctor constitutes her medical records, I’ll leave for others to elucidate. Thanks for the link, Dario.
Adam, now that’s the sort of number crunching I can understand. lol
Can anybody tell me one bill Obama has authored?
Has Obama done anything whilst in the Senate other than spruke for the Presidency?
Glen, this line of argument didn’t wash with Rudd and it hasn’t washed with Obama either. When an incumbent party has failed comprehensively, the voters don’t care whether the opposition candidate has 40 years of experience or none. Get over it.
Dario, so what? Should we also have access to whether she’s had checkups for STD’s? It’s none of our business. All that’s needed is certification that they have no major health problems that would stop them from performing their duties.
Dario,
Join the crowd
…….
I know that Adam.
But it doesnt make it right.
243 jjulian cheers – it’s a great movie – robbed by Rocky at the 75 Oscars.
Essentially the ‘rightness’ of the decision is up to individual voters. If more people agreed with you Glen, Obama wouldn’t stand a chance.
I haven’t bothered to participate in this thread.
Why?
Because the polls show Obama WILL win.
I recall last year in the 2007 election, the stupidity of some rusted Libs. Latham was in front, but Howard came back! He’ll beat Rudd, just you watch!
Honestly, some of the silly comments. It’s one thing to be in front by a few, its another to be in front by a lot, like Rudd was and Obama is.
From Bush to Obama. What a change it’s going to be. I just can’t wait till the election’s over. Obama’s in, we know that. What is going to be interesting is to see whether the Democrats can reach 60-40 in the Senate!
Juliem! The narrowing (or lack thereof) has effected my judgement. My prediction of 400 EVs for Obama has come down to 394. I’m giving up on the Dakota’s….
Sad to say I thought Dixville Notch was called Hartsfield Langing – curse you The West Wing for providing me with all my knowledge of American ploitics!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartsfield%27s_Landing
ltep @ 274,
traditionally US politicians have always had to endure more intrusive questions into physical issues. I don’t know why, but it has always been so ….. might have been Eagleton in the 1972 campaign that started this? My first voting election was 1980 and I’ve never known anything but this kind of attention to health of the candidate …
280, got that yo ho ho ……
If that’s all there is to it, why didn’t they release the records earlier. There’s a lot missing from those records IMO. The story of Trig’s birth is glossed over. I certainly believe Trig is her kid but the scant detail doesn’t say anything.
Why would a devout pro-lifer have an amniocentesis for Down Syndrome if she wasn’t going to consider termination? Amniocentesis has a 1:5,000 risk of causing foetal loss (ie the kid dying) and and most pro-lifers won’t have it done for that reason.
I guess Glen they should only allow two term Senators or Governors to run for the top job… you know to weed out the undesirables.
Hear hear ltep.
That was only a big issue because Eagleton deliberately covered up mental health issues from McGovern.
Most polls said his health wouldnt have made them less likely to vote Democrat.
Hart’s Location went to Obama as well, 17 to 10, with 2 write-in votes for Ron Paul.
As the father of a girl with DS I agree with you a little bit on this – we decided not to have the amnio after the ultra sound because were were concerned about a miscarriage (the usual stats given are a 1 in 200 chance). However, I know some people need to know so they can prepare – either mentally, emotionally etc. And I would suggest as a sitting Governor it would be worthwhile for her to know if her baby was going to have DS as that would likely require adjusting her schedule.
(or to you know, decide to run for VP
)
Someone’s contribution needs to count Grog, not necessarily years though that helps.
Obama hasn’t contributed to the extent McCain has.
“Great ambition and conquest without contribution is without significance”
288 – Ron Paul – bolt from the blue!!!
True, we don’t vote. It’s the US voter’s business apparently and that’s why McCain released his (all 1200 pages of it).
“Great contribution without the votes is without victory.”
The one true thing Howard said – in a Democracy, the people are always right.
No Dario it is not the US voters’ business either. What makes you think it is?
Grog, in the end they are indeed. Of that i can agree.
Because that’s the way it’s been done over there for some time. What makes you think it isn’t?
Do we ask for Rudd’s or Turnbull’s medical records…no we dont?
I think the difference ltep, is that in the Australian system, we elect a party. We vote based on party policies, rather than an individual. In the US, they vote for one person to be POTUS. To Americans it’s very important that the people who they elect are capable of serving out their whole tenure. You’re right: to us it is foreign and none of our business, but we’re not the ones voting.
Are we the US? No we aren’t…
Time for a change methinks.
A check up to say they’re fit enough to serve the 4 years (all things being equal) and that’ll do.
The rest is irrelevant.
America is weird
Look Jeb Bartlett had MS and I still voted for him!!!
I thank my fellow Pollbludger for his question on Obama’s authorship of Senate legislation and refer him to the following from Media Matters website:
“Media report Palin’s claim that Obama has not “authored … a single major law or reform” without noting laws he has passed
Summary: Numerous print media outlets uncritically reported Gov. Sarah Palin’s claim that Sen. Barack Obama “is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or reform — not even in the state senate,” without noting that Obama has played key roles in the passage of reform legislation at both the federal and state levels, including a bill that McCain co-sponsored and thanked Obama for his work on.
In reporting on Gov. Sarah Palin’s September 3 speech at the Republican National Convention, numerous print media, including the Los Angeles Times, the Chicago Tribune, Time magazine, the Dallas Morning News, Reuters, and an article and a column by Debra Saunders in the San Francisco Chronicle, uncritically reported Palin’s claim that Sen. Barack Obama “is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or reform — not even in the state senate,” without noting that Obama has played key roles in the passage of reform legislation at both the federal and state levels. For example, Sen. John McCain, a co-sponsor of the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act, thanked Obama for his work on the bill.
Obama was a lead co-sponsor of that bill (S.2590), which sought to “require full disclosure of all entities and organizations receiving Federal funds” — an amount that approximately totals $1 trillion in federal grants, contracts, earmarks and loans. While signing the bill into law on September 26, 2006, Bush recognized Obama as a sponsor of the legislation, saying, “I want to thank the bill sponsors, Tom Coburn from Oklahoma, Tom Carper from Delaware, and Barack Obama from Illinois.” Moreover, in a press release upon Senate passage of the bill, the bill’s primary sponsor, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), referred to the legislation as the “Coburn-Obama Bill.” In media reports, the bill has also been referred to as the “Coburn-Obama” legislation or bill.
At the state level, Obama was a co-sponsor of a 1998 Illinois ethics law outlawing political fundraising on Illinois state property and barring lobbyists from giving gifts to state legislators. Obama biographer David Mendell wrote about Obama’s work on the bill in his book Obama From Promise to Power:
Working the bill was an eye-opening experience for the freshman senator. It was a tough assignment for a new lawmaker, since he was essentially sponsoring legislation that would strip away long-held privileges and perks from his colleagues. In one private session, a close colleague angrily denounced the bill, saying it impinged on lawmakers’ inherent rights. But Obama worked the issue deliberately and delicately, and the measure passed the senate by an overwhelming 52-4 vote. “This sets the standard for us, and communicates to a public that is increasingly cynical about Springfield and the General Assembly that we in fact are willing to do the right thing,” Obama told reporters immediately after the bill’s passage. The bill was not a watershed event anywhere but Illinois. It essentially lifted Illinois, a state with a deep history of illicit, pay-to-play politics, into the modern world when it came to ethics restrictions. [Page 124]
Obama was also the sponsor of the “Democratic Republic of Congo Relief, Security, and Democracy Promotion Act of 2005″ (S.2125), signed into law by President Bush on December 22, 2006. Obama worked with Republican Sen. Richard Lugar (IN) to produce the “Lugar-Obama proliferation and threat reduction initiative,” which President Bush signed into law on January 11, 2007. The initiative, according to Obama’s Senate website, “expands U.S. cooperation to destroy conventional weapons. It also expands the State Department’s ability to detect and interdict weapons and materials of mass destruction.”
Link: http://mediamatters.org/items/200809040007
That’s a seperate argument. The argument today is why Palin hasn’t released her full records when that is the done thing in the US Presidential race.
I think if Rudd had been 72, with a history of cancer, and if Australia had nuclear weapons, and if Julia Gillard thought the Flinstones was a documentary, I’d've wanted to see Rudd’s medical records.
Has Biden released his?
Yes
Grog
My bad. You are right. It’s more like 1:200 as you say. We had the same problem with our daughter who was high risk on her ultrasound. It’s a tough decision.
Palin didn’t seem to change her activities at all based on her diagnosis and I think her actions in flying out and not seeing a doctor when her water broke showed very poor judgement and almost reckless indifference to the child’s health.
Ha co-sponser….i rest my case.
Grog
what if the check up is “rigged”
The chance of having a potus who goes catatonic or suffers a catastrophic illness are greatly reduced by having a full and frank disclosure,which btw the other 3 candidates complied with
perhaps the requirement stemmed from fdr’s time?
Al, I disagree with you that we vote for parties to an extent. I think we vote for leaders too, hence the emphasis on Kevin Rudd at the last election and Labor’s focusing on ‘a vote for Howard is a vote for Costello’.
Whilst I think there’s some argument that can be made to releasing the details of any significant health problems candidates for ‘high office’ have, quite frankly I don’t see how the minute details of a persons’ medical history should be made public. It’s the same as when you have a health checkup before commencing employment (in some places). They test you for significant health issues but don’t disclose sensitive medical details such as whether you’ve previously had an abortion.
Public concern about the president’s health dates from the concealment of Eisenhower’s two heart attacks during his second term. I think the “full disclosure” ritual dates from Reagan, who felt he had to prove that he was fit to be President at 69 – he was both younger and healthier in 1980 than McCain is now.
Ah so you have to be a sponsor to be President…
Slight difference in the job description
“I think if Rudd had been 72, with a history of cancer, and if Australia had nuclear weapons, and if Julia Gillard thought the Flinstones was a documentary, I’d’ve wanted to see Rudd’s medical records.”
Best… Adam Carr comment… ever…
Glen, I can’t fathom what part of this statement does not make it crystal clear that Obama and Lugar are the authors:
“Obama worked with Republican Sen. Richard Lugar (IN) to produce the “Lugar-Obama proliferation and threat reduction initiative,” which President Bush signed into law on January 11, 2007.”
I went to the trouble to answer what I thought was a genuine question from you out of the respect that many commentors in here seem to have for your contributions. However, as the estimable Juliem says , I will agree to disagree with you and leave it at that.
Gusface
Anyone could fake being perfectly healthy at a check-up with an honest doctor, let alone a dodgy one who’s paid to provide the diagnosis the patient wants or doesn’t want. Alan Bond’s dementia seems to have improved dramatically now that he’s out of prison for example.
ltep
The only person whose medical history caused any problems was Eagleton and , in retrospect, he went on to do a lot of good things and would have been a good VP. About 2/3 of political leaders have a history of mental illness (diagnosed or not). Some went off the rails (Idi Amin was quite mad) and others were the greatest leaders the world has seen like Lincoln and Churchill. Where does anyone draw the line? I don’t know the answer to this one.
When the late, great Alistair Cooke used to give a color piece on US elections he frequently mentioned the little towns in NH that made an effort to get their polling day over and done with more or less instanter. His reason was that always used to vote Republican in that most Yankee of Yankee states anyway that it didn’t matter if they bothered to count the votes anyhow. It seems that times have changed in that neck of the woods. In any event they do their polling in some style at this location: http://www.greatnorthwoods.org/dixvillenotch/
Alistair Cooke was a wonderful broadcaster and journalist. His sign off line in the program he recorded about Nixon’s travails a day or two before the resignation (anticipated for the Friday) but which would be broadcast on the Sunday after the event was the most memorable and clever “And the rest you know”.
Speaking of Nixon, who brought shame to the office of President but who acted honorably in the final wash up, at least had a legacy for history to chew over. Contrast his administration’s achievements – there were quite a few (end of the draft, school integration, China etc.) – with that of the present shower who we may safely consign to the all time worst category already.
Job description is irrelevant. The principal of the matter is that everyone has the right to privacy on certain issues, one of those being the right to keep their medical history private.
Good for him 1 thing he has done find any more credible examples?
But that doesnt really matter now.
Nixon would have gone done as a great popular President had he not been so paranoid.
Glen, I doubt you would be too concerned Obama’s experience if he was a Republican and saying all the soothing things you conservatives like to hear. In fact Ill bet that if there was anyone on the Republican side without any experience at all whom we all knew could beat Obama, you’d be out there rooting for him (as it were)..
Why don’t you cut the guy a bit of slack and at least wait until he’s had a bit of time to strut his stuff before you start criticising him. To be honest it’s starting to sound like sour grapes.,
my 322
…too concerned ABOUT Obama’s experience…
ltep
The right to privacy can be waived and candidates implicitly and explicitly waive that right when they run for POTUS or VP. Of course, the level of detail is another thing. I agree that the information provided should only cover their medical fitness to perform their job, so things like termination history, STDs self-limiting illnesses are not germane.
Final Zogby, incl Mon night interviews:
Obama 54-43 LANDSLIDE!!!
In that poll O’s vote has increased 5% in the last 3 days.
http://www.zogby.com
OBAMA!!! OBAMA!!! GOBAMA!!!!!!
Why hasn’t MSNBC called the election based on the Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location 32-16 vote to Obama? Any word on whether McCain has conceded yet?
If they were a one term Senator id have said fair game.
I hope he does a good job as POTS…i dont want America to fall into the abyss.
Adam:
Eisenhower?
Wasn’t JFK able to hide from the public *his* health problems – which would have cost him the election if they had come out
ditto Lyndon “I have severe heart disease but no one must know” Johnson
Mary
Since when was satyriasis a disease?
Mary, Eisenhower came before JFK and LBJ, so even if you are correct it doesn’t contradict what I said. Of course FDR ran the country and won WW2 from a wheelchair so all this health fetishism is a bit overdone.
Is that still based on the 2004 turn out breakdown? i.e. which had Republicans very slightly ahead of Democrats?
Adam in Canberra
Posted Tuesday, November 4, 2008 at 2:01 pm | Permalink
And if it looks as if they are not, it will be a Dem landslide, and Glen’s strength is clearly not statistics.
Who will SBS have their live feed with?
Adam:
FDR hid the fact that he was in a wheelchair – he would have hated the statute of himself in a wheelchair in Washington DC – thanks to those disability activists who seem to think that they “must” have a “symbol”, regardless of what that person would have thought
Morning everyone.
Jules, when’s the deadline for tipping comp submission? Is there any chance you could publish a list about an hour before so that any last minute changes can be made to avoid ties, etc?
My man Glen has some interesting things to say on most occasions, but at certain points along the way he allows his emotions to get the better of him and simply loses the plot (especially when he gets upset at the perceived injustice of it all) – just can’t help himself. He’s our resident Joe Biden! When in one of those “states” there is no rationalising to be had, no facts are relevant… we just have to wait a little while for him to come back down! But, its not a bad deal overall…
CNN i think.
Mary is right. They built a train station under the Waldorf Hotel in NY just so they wouldnt see him coming off a train being carried off.
Glen @ 327,
They won’t
……. starting in about 24 hours, they will begin climbing out of the abyss 
What’s happening then julie? Bush to announce the Israel/Palestine peace deal?
Just because he will be elected doesnt mean all America’s problems are solved…
I hope i didnt mistake you as an intelligent contributor to pollbludger and not a kool-aid drinker.
Obama will have his work cut out for him and it wont be easy.
expat @ 335, 10pm tonight.
…..
how are you celebrating?
“Just because he will be elected doesnt mean all America’s problems are solved…”
Finally, concession. Now for the rest of the right-wingers on this forum.
Nobody said he will solve every problem. Neither will the other candidate. But when it comes to doing the best they can with good intentions, Obama comes out tops.
That’s what I thought about GWB.
At least he has the capacity for hard work, unlike the guy who is there at the moment.
expat, ask and you shall receive, I’ll put this up one last time ….
***
fredn O 271 N MO
Big Blind Dave O 273
Oz M 274 N MO
Dario O 286 N MO CO
Glen O 291 N MO CO
Diogenes O 292 N MO MN
philofsydney O 306 N MO NC
ShowsOn O 309 N MO CO
GaryBruce O 310 Y MO FL
Al O 311 N MO CA/OR/WA/HI 11:41pm EST (or 3:41pm AEDT).
SimonH O 311 N MO CA
injuddstree O 311 N MO NV
jjulian1009 O 312 N MO CA
Kakuru O 318 N MO
Darn O 319 N MO CO
Socrates O 328 Y MO CO
Hugo O 338 Y MO VA
Evan14 O 338 Y MO
Nick of McEwen O 338 N MO
Gusface O 348 N MO CO
Enjaybee O 349 Y MO NV
An Cu O 349 CA
Sondeo O 350 Y MO CO
Dyno O 352 N MO CA
worktorule O 353 N MO CA
Stewart J O 353 N MO
ExPat Follower O 353 N MO CA/OR/WA/HI
Grog O 364 YS FL
David Walsh O 364 Y MO CA
Peter Fuller O 364 Y MO CO
Ron O 364 Y MO CA
William O 375 Y MO
Julie O 376 Y MO CO
BH O 376 Y MO FL
Yo ho ho O 394 Y MO FL
Well then the Doctor gets deregistered goes to jail most likely.
Anyhoo it’s all fishwrapper stuff. Palin will be nought but a bad dream in 24 hours.
Voting present isnt hard work ShowsOn.
US rivals in last push for votes
– http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7704869.stm
In a symbolic opening to election day on the US east coast, Mr Obama defeated his rival by 15 votes to six in the hamlet of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.
The town, which has a 60-year tradition of being first in the nation to vote, opened its polls at midnight, with turnout of 100%. George W Bush won there in 2004, on his way to re-election.
If anyone wants to make any changes, let me know. You can see that some information is missing but in most cases, unless you are sharing an EV number with someone else, you need not worry about the tiebreakers. That is the only case in which they will be used.
The reason Al has extra information is to differentiate himself from Simon.
We decided at some point today that in some instances we might need a 3rd tie breaker. That will be time of McCain’s concession speech EST.
NO one else needs to submit that to me unless you are not wanting to switch any of your choices and you need a 3rd tie breaker to separate yourself from someone else.
Al – to be fair to Simon, I won’t use that unless Simon also submits that information.
Besides, the number is going to be higher than that anyways
…..
juliem – I forgot what determines the tipping state? CNN calling it?
Julie, here in SA the coverage will be starting at midnight – so I reckon I’ll be up till 7am celebrating privately! I can’t wait… am trying to think of the last time the ‘exhilaration factor’ even came close to what it could today… perhaps only Keating-Hewson back in ‘93 (though in hindsight wish that result was different now!). I imagine Whitlam ‘72 must have been similar (a bit young for that one)… hmm, maybe mega exhilaration isn’t a good common denominator to have…!
A good solid win will match v good vibes back in Nov in Aus… but if Obi can crack 375 then its gonna be GREAT… funnily enough, I felt a bit sad for Johnny H – losing his own seat and all that, and thought his concession was very gracious – let’s hope JohnnyMac can be similar (though am not betting on him losing his own state!!). My bad wishes of pain & suffering are largely restricted to Elizabeth Dole, I think…
You wouldn’t believe how hard it is for a Dr to be deregistered, let alone go to jail.
I forgot Labour in the UK ‘97 on the exhilaration stakes – that was some evening… but again I don’t like the common denominator here….!
350 – well then forget about it. If we can’t trust the doctors why bother at all with the records…
Re 341,
EXACTLY …… “begin climbing out of the abyss” [ my words earlier ] doesn’t equate to meaning “all America’s problems are going to be solved” [ Glen's words]. But the Democratic part of the equation tomorrow will get a h*** of a lot closer to that mark over 8 years than the Republican part of tomorrow’s equation which is why people are voting for him
I have great hopes that Obama will be an improvement who will turn many things around for the US including moral leadership, foreign policy and action on climate change. However as a realist there are some problems that are beyond him. The US economy will take years to fix because the government can’t spend their way out of a recession as ours can here. There is also a real risk that he will succumb to protectionism because some of the people supporting him are those whose jobs will want protecting. George W Bush has blown the US’s undisputed lead in global power and it won’t be regained in our lifetime IMO. I’ll be happy to be wrong on this, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
I still can’t quite believe tomorrow is election day.
Where the hell did the year go?
Nor is getting busted drink driving while under the influence of cocaine.
Grog @ 348, yes what state CNN calls that puts the winner OVER the 270 mark …..
Jules – thank you maam – imho, if Obi wins Missouri then we’re talking 370+ overall… so, you’re looking pretty good there, J. Its a contest I’m happy to lose on the lowside!! I have one mate where we’ve side-bet on our top 10 predictions for Obi’s final ECV. My most bullish is 396 – this guy is a Lib voter in Aus and fairly right-of-centre and quite analytical, and he’s gone as high as 426 (inc Arizona!!) and most picks in the 380+ region…. dare to dream.
I’m sure we had a couple of McCain tippers, or have they finally thrown in the towel??
MSNBC will call it for Obama at 6pm…lol!
expat, is your other half SA or Aussie or what? Seems from what you’ve been posting that she’s not in on the excitement?
My husband is Aussie through and through. From living in the US for 8 years and knowing me longer than that, he’s developed an appreciation for the US side of politics but his enthusiasm level is only about 30% of what it would be for a federal election whereas being able to vote in both countries, I get geeked up for both elections, last November and now
…..
That having been said, I’m marching off to the US consulate in Perth to resign my US citizenship if McCain pulls this out of the fire …. I would still be just as interested in future US elections, but no longer will I be voting in them if tomorrow ends up in the “red” …….
expat,
Add in Steve Brack’s first win in Victoria
….. we watched that one afar from the USA …. boy was that sweet 
….. (my hubby is a Victorian)
Julie, I’m perfectly happy to share the spoils with Simon in the event we’re both right… I just put forward my prediction since I thought it’s best to give my own prediction, rather than just snipe others from the sidelines after the event!
Only a left winger would say they would renounce citizenship/leave the country/not vote again if somebody they didnt like won an election. That is really really sad IMHO.
How many Liberal backers said after Rudd won they want to leave Australia and renounce citizenship???
expat, my 376 is based upon the RCP no tossup states map adding in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and 1 for Omaha, Nebraska.
“How many Liberal backers said after Rudd won they want to leave Australia and renounce citizenship???”
I personally know of two that said that.
How many did it though?
I think Obama is more likely but not the dead cert that he seems to be seen here. The polling isn’t THAT strong.
thanks Al
….. have noted the change in my excel spreadsheet 
Any word on who DIXVILLE NOTCH voted for in the US Senate Race in NH?
Wow … did not know this … one h*** of a turnaround in 24 months
……
It’s funny how there was much less certainty that Rudd would win last year, yet he was further ahead in the polls than Obama.
Obama to win, but a landslide is unlikely. (I ain’t putting specific numbers on it, don’t know the US political scene well enough.)
A HUGE Spoiler – do NOT click on this link unless you are in Obama’s camp. Do not say I didn’t warn you if you don’t listen …..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/tears-for-obama-photos_n_140582.html#
Lol they are crying seeing Obama and winning raffles to see/meet him.
That is soo sad!
Even Obama backers on here wouldnt cry if they saw him or heard him speak…and nobody would cry listening to McCain speech unless he muffs it up maybe…
Ahh you guys suck!
A week ago it’s “In the bag” “It’ll be a landslide!” “McCain’s gone”.
Now you’re all “He’s still got a chance” “It’ll be close” “Won’t be a landslide”.
This website has a detailed hour by hour breakdown of what polls are closing when and what states to watch for at different times …..
MSNBC will call it for Obama at 6pm EST lol thats a dead cert.
juliem do you have the figures for the NH Senate race from Dixville Notch??
My other half is a South African – had very little interest in Aussie elections, which I understand – and my attempts to gee her up on the US elections are somewhat muted – that she’s struggling along 7mths pregnant might have something to do with that! Brack’s first win was where Kennett suprisingly lost, right… I have to admit that I miss ol Jeff a bit. Hope NSW Libs can bring back a Bruce Baird or someone seemingly competent to give voters there a choice!
Juliem,
Thanks for compiling the EV forecasts.
Median forecast is 338 which implies CO FL IA NV NM OH VA changing color and NC will be the state that just stays ahead of the Obama tide.
We’ll see tomorrow whether there some wisdom in the crowd at pollbludger or a case study in group think.
I hope the new political party in South Africa beats the ANC…it will be good for democracy there.
What about the AL ROKER EFFECT! The idea that fine weather favours Democrats, and rainy weather favours Republicans.
Can someone hook me up with some satellite imagery, and wet bulb / dry bulb stats? Will humidity be factor? Does the FiveThirtyEight modeling take into account U.V. radiation?
Yep great news – democracy needs a choice.
They need a proper 2 party system…good for democracy in SA and good for the people there.
Zuma is the last thing South Africans need.
Let the reactionary stooges of the white man leave the party of liberation and revolution. Who cares.
377, no idea Glen, if you want to know, suggest trying Google for the results but don’t know what search terms you would use ….
Oz,
Trite, crapulous sloganeering!
Good for you.
#386
It’s African politics…
Calling yourself “Democratic” and “Revolutionary” and coming up with slogans is what you do.
ShowsOn,
http://www.weatherchannel.com is the old standby for weather in the US
Sununu seems to have lost Dixville Notch to the Democrat but i have hard figures to back this up.
I am more pissed at that than McCain getting pumped there.
The last thing I want is moderate Republicans losing…..
No nuclear free tree hugging carbon foot prints for Aboriginal gay whales in the ground!
Now there’s a slogan for the ages.
O 297 N MO
Thanks juliem
Glen and others who need a SA update… its a nightmare… the current president would be a more natural fit with the breakaway faction than the rump ANC! We’re not sure if he will be the presidential candidate for the rump ANC at the next election (more likely Zuma) – he’s at least fairly reassuring. The breakaway faction has no chance given the blind allegiance of the masses to the ANC, but in the longer term if they can form a more centrist opposition then would be good for the country – to be viable, will probably have to merge with the Democratic Alliance though (which will be a tough one!). Yes, the ANC needs to be turfed out here… but I can’t see it happening – maybe if Mandela came out for the breakaway it might make a diff, but its unlikely.
Also agree that losing moderate Republicans isn’t a great thing – but not sure I’d put Sununu in that category… the guy in the NorthWest (I think) would be a more sad loss, though (and no, I don’t mean Stevens!)… but boy do i want to see Dole get the crap beat out of her!
Glen, Sununu has been dead meat all year. The Dems will win NH, NM, CO, VA, OR, AK and probably NC. MN seems to have slipped a bit and Coleman is now ahead. I don’t think they will win MS, GA or KY, but upsets do happen. So probably 58, or 57 if they expel Lieberman.
Thanks Expat for the update, much appreciated.
SA still is a 1 party state National Party to ANC.
Yes Dole is a dolt bagging someone saying they are an atheist…not playing the ball means u deserve to lose.
I hope Smith wins in Oregon as well.
The Republicans will really be stuffed if they lose their moderate Senators.
I can’t believe there’s a senator who’s been in since 1959…
Dixville is in; its all over; Democrats win.
Adam:
Yeah the filibuster will kill the more fevered dreams of American progressives
What about the Democratic Alliance?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Alliance_(South_Africa)
Their leader is the Mayor of Cape Town.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Zille
fredn, yeah let’s call the election off. The people have spoken.
I hate to nitpick when someone’s grandmother has just died, but when does Obama think World War I was?
Well, I reckon it is all over.
The most plausible path I can see to a McCain win is that he wins Pennsylvania (amongst other things). I just can’t see that happening.
Landslide? Obama will get an ECV count somewhere in the mid-300s and win by 5-7% points on the popular vote. It’s semantics whether you want to call that a landslide or not.
391, got that in now
Adam,
When she met Obama’s grandfather?
Be interesting to note how many times McCain and Palin lied during the campaign. The last being that there is a narrowing and the momentum is with them. Clearly false. I think even for Repugs they have broken some sort of record for lying this campaign
Well it depends on what you count as ‘lies’. For instance some ardent Liberal supporters still claim that John Howard never lied… I know!
ShowsOn – to give some context, I used to do some interesting things for the ANC in the past (buying weapons, etc – don’t want to go into details, but a sense of how committed I was to the cause)… and I’ll be voting for the DA in the next election – which is the equivalent of me voting for Reagan in ‘80 or Fraser in ‘75… that’s how disappointing the ANC is to me here.
The DA is nowhere near broad-based enough to win an election – has zero black support (or near enough to), and therefore cannot win outside of the Cape and possibly KwaZulu Natal (where enough whites, coloureds & Indians can potentially make the numbers)… we need a centre (dare I say centre-right… in the Aussie more than the US sense) black-oriented party here, and even that will take a generation to have a chance. The breakaway group isn’t especially popular with the masses here, and will probably have to merge with the DA eventually – a good thing in the long term, but they will be seen as sellouts in the short term, most likely. In the meantime, when the Zuma populists take control of the ANC then the fear is that any remaining semblance of fiscal competence goes out the window (not that there is a whole lot left now, though maybe that’s a bit unfair, but I can’t stand the corruption and self-enrichment tolerated at the expense of all the people the ANC were supposed to be fighting for all the way along).
Andrew,
For the future, it would be far more interseting to know how many time Obama and Biden lied during the campaign. I’m sure we will find out!
Andrew, there is clearly a slight narrowing. MO, IN, NC, which looked to be moving to Obama a week or so ago, are now narrowly McCain. FL has clearly drifted back to McCain a bit. So has PA. It’s a bit of stretch to call campaign trail optimism a “lie.” What’s he supposed to say: “I’m doomed, don’t bother voting”?
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4A25JK20081103
Bloomberg manages to overturn two referenda.
… but let not my depressive rantings on SA politics take away from the exhilaration of the next 24 hrs or so!
Andrew,
I sort of agree about the narrowing but William’s graph is interesting.
It shows a patchwork of some States trending to Obama and some to McCain. The ones trending to McCain tend to be the ones we’ve been talking about for the past couple of months (ie since before when the graph starts).
I don’t think McCain can win but I wouldn’t be amazed if there’s a narrowing of sorts. Will be too little too late though (sounds vaguely familiar …)
Too late, Expat Follower.
Ruined it for me. =(
Yeah I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes EF. The realisation that political change is almost unthinkable must be tough. Ditto to those in Singapore, Alberta, Canada etc. etc.
What chance Bloomberg running as an Independent in 2012 if Obama & the Dems screw things up (or, more likely than this, that the economy is still a basket case) and the Repub base puts up Huckabee or Palin!
But is the DA a centre right party? Or is it a centrist party that the ANC paints as right wing?
So was Obama “lying” when he said his grandmother (born 1922) lived through two world wars?
Sorry Oz! LTEP, that’s why pollbludger is a wonderful tonic for me… the blinds are pulled down locally and I get my rocks off following Oz, the US and Britain coming up (wouldn’t want to be in Labor’s shoes there)
McCain now $13.50 on Betfair. Obama $1.07.
Hillary would’ve been at 19 cents by now.
It’s weird, you’d think successive failures by parties on both sides in the US would lead to trends towards to more extreme rights and lefts, or at least away from the Democrats and Republicans but it never happened.
One day the Democratic-Republican will live again.
Look what happened to Septimus!
And Edwards at 3 cents.
The ANC can change the Constitution in Parliament as they have 2/3rds of the seats.
The DA are a small rump party.
ShowsOn – feel bad hijacking the conv away from the US – but, the DA’s problem is that in the SA context its a white-dominated party whose platform is geared predominantly to white issues (esp crime). Their politics (something analogous to Aussie Liberal) would be a massive improvement, but the racial context makes it unsellable; no black leadership or membership drive + no realistic plan to tackle the past wrongs in an active sense apart from leaving it to general trickle down free market… whilst this might be better than active affirmative action (very debatable), it will get absolutely nowhere with African voters here as they are seen as apartheid amnesiacs.
I think it will be as interesting seeing the Senate results tomorrow. I just hope enough moderate Republicans win.
Gary Bruce
#251
You were right on your first point re my #248 and then proceeded to make an loose allegation
Re th first point i said “but then you hav not been alone on this Site” (meaning some obama supporters , othwerwise i would hav said All supporters obviouley) ) subsequently with this thought of “some” Obama suporters in mind I said ‘this sites Obama supporters” You hav seized on th second comment as if it meant all Well in context I’d suggest you ar perhaps not right but do acknowladge i could/should hav said “some” (which was in my mind) Such unintended lingo looseness irrespective I retract , but lets not forget th substance of my #248 , decency standards by some Obama suporters regarding Sarah Palin hav been appaling & if posters do not tink this has occured then there standards ar diferent to mine
Your second point about throwing mud is I tink looses and not substantiated except by misunderstanding You hav assumed what I’ve said after probabley having heard th SAME subject on right’ Media rather than what i’ve actually said , and I’ve found many Obama blogers do this mistake Your example is your reference to “his oiliness” so whats your problem with this I’ve called him a snake oil salesman (with words) of which “his oiliness’ (with words) is an abbriviation It is acurate not mud but then you may not be interested in proof of that
Take one example , th Pastor “denials” by Obama Well from th 25th february to 29th April from direct public quotes , Obama gave EIGHT diferent versions of his relationship with Pastar Wright…..starting off sugar coating it as Trinity Church was not reely a controversial Church or Pastor , however as credible Media published more facts about how whaco Wright & his Church was then then Obama fessed up tit bits of increasing acknowledgemnt of Wrights whaco views …..then culminating in Obama’s ‘Gettysburg’ Philly speech saying some Pastor Wright sermons were definitely over th top but he “privately”disagreed with them …and a lot of nasty Pastor wright sermon quotes in th credible Press/Youtube Obama ‘somehow’ never heard whilst he sat in th Church …. but Wright was quote “his Uncle his Friend his Mentor” and quote “he would not disown him” (and quote “any more than my white grand mother”) , ….but then more info came out showing up this whaco Pastor & Church so Obama fessed up some stronger criticism of th Pastor …and finaly of his Uncle his Friend his Mentor his 20 year Church Obama at th end of April finaly publicly DID “disown” th Pastor , did fully condemn publicly and Obama did leave th Church ….so ‘his oiliness” (with words) absolutely is he Obama , and a master & far better than your average politcan Some politcans ar abaolute l.ars , Obama is oiliness with words hence my snake oil salesman reference
Now this to me demonstrated 1/ poor judgement , 2/ query on his convictions solidity of 20 years attndanse (as th Trinity church politcaly is influential) and 3/ willingness to ‘associate’ to climb….and 4/ then followed by Obama’s oiliness with words …….Obama’s actual quotes of 8 diferent Pastor defenses over 8 weeks ar reel reality , Obama’s 20 years with th pastor is reel reality and fact that th Pastor is a whaco is reel reality (even Obama finaly saw that)
What I hav not done is accuse Obama of being a whaco or of agreeing with Pastor Wrights whaco views Only th ‘right’ were false enough to make that ridaculous innuendo
Furthermore th above listed SAME FOUR ‘character’ criticisms ( judgement , convictions & willingness and th oiliness with words , I also highlited regarding Ayers and Rezko (after I listed these guys activities for context) But again i never accused Obama of agreeing with those guys activities or being a terorist or a corrupt either Only th idiot false “right” Republicons did that which WAS ‘mud’ …although some blogers here hav tried to falsely insinuuate I was doing so as well (probably because th nature of those guys activities was nastily unpleasant making posters alittle uncomfortable but that was not my issue , th 4 ‘character’ defect issues were what I posted (admittedly th first of those , judgement , has been mitigated by his excellent campaign performance but POTUS politcal decisions may or may not be different)
Perhaps you misunderstood my points being made but await your comments I will say that most Obama suporters find any criticism of obama dificult to take probabley because 99% of Obama criticism is from th ‘right” & often but not always false ….I as a non Obama suporter ‘informal’ come from th ‘left’ (refer my other Thread #171 Obama ‘left’ policy criticisms) which were absolutely decisive in my non suport , (rather than th abov ‘character’ defects) and I hav a multitude of policy arguments suporting my views none of which ar mud , but if posters think that then so beit As a firm Labor person I’m very used to vigarously defending Labor principals against th non “true believers” who hav said muchy much worse without insulting me at all But I do wish Obama to be an outstanding Leader notwithstanding my reservations as reality is he is now th to be elacted man
Oxymoron.
wrong again Oz.
There are several.
Adam
I don’t think you could say there has been a narrowing in this election. There certainly hasn’t been nationally. Given that there are 50 states, a few would have to drift towards McCain and a similar number would drift to Obama. There did seem to a narrowing in half, but the other half didn’t.
FL, NC, VA, OH, PA did.
MO, CO, NV, NH didn’t.
No-one will take the DA seriously as an opposition party until it has a black leader. It’s absurd to expect the black mases in SA to vote for a white president given the country’s history. It would be an admission that they can’t govern themselves. SA Jews like Leon and Zille have a distinguished record of opposing apartheid, but they can’t expect the black masses to see them as anything but whites.
My LAST SA comment unless we’re all happy to kill some time until the US action starts:
the breakaway faction would have been smarter to have run under the ANC banner in the next election, and only then split away and joined forces with the DA. Might prevent the 2/3 that way and give them a few years before risking self-annhialation at the polls, which is what I expect for them in 2009. Their move now shows greater integrity but probably not very politically clever… too many guys who might be tempted to join them won’t do so now because they enjoy being MPs too much!
Here’s the map a week ago.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Oct30.html
Obama leads in MO, IN, NC, while ND and MT are tied. McCain now leads in all of them, and no states have gone the other way. That’s a gain of 43 ECVs to McCain. I call that a narrowing. It won’t be enough, but it’s there.
Why do we have to take Palin seriously? She thinks the earth is less than 7000 years old. That is moronic, that is dumb, that is stupid. We don’t have to respect idiots, especially when they want to get into positions of world power.
I’m a true believer too Ron, get used to it.
So apartheid lives on in a new form. That’s just sad…
Beware the Hockey Mum for she is the Beast that holds the key.
What do you mean “again”?
It’s relative.
“Beware the Hockey Mum for she is the Beast that holds the key”
to hugh hefners place
Moderate Republican Senators: Collins and Snowe of ME, Specter of PA, Smith of OR, Coleman of MN, Hagel of NE (who’s retiring). Hard to think of many others.
The moderates keep losing, like Lincoln Chaffee in 2004 who has endorsed Obama.
I think the Democrats have learned a lesson, I think Obama has run on a more centrist and unifying campaign than either Kerry or Gore. The problem is, the Republicans keep losing their moderates in congress, so the nutcase wing is going to blame McCain’s loss on the fact he didn’t talk more about abortion and gay marriage.
There were some defeated in 2006…
Adam
EV-wise and as a proportional win in the battlegrounds, McCain has narrowed. Obama has actually increased his lead, marginally, over the last week nationally from the high sixes a week ago to the low sevens in the final polls. I think a lot of the reason for that was McCain’s change in campaign tactic away from smears to socialism. Whoever got him to attack on Ayers needs to be shot (I’m guessing it was Schmidt). The eternal question will be if Wright would have made any difference.
I am going to have a much needed laugh and watch ‘My Fellow Americans’ tonight. A classic political comedy.
So does this just mean he is getting even bigger leads in safe states like California and New York?
Then watch Bullworth, it will give you nightmares.
Yes, I think the point is that McCain has made gains in the States that count, whereas many of Obama’s gains seem to be in States he would win anyway.
That is, if you think week-by-week analyses of State-level poll results are worth looking at.
Can there now be any doubt that OB will win, and handsomely?… last I saw the Kid was getting within 98% chance of winning?… sheesh… if only HC had taken the primary… surly she would have got 98.5?
Correction: 98.5145918528%
ABC TV coverage is 12 – 3 EST. Any idea which feed they are taking? Or are they going to get Dolly Downer in again?
445
Damn, your right, how could I have been so blind?
It’ll be interesting to see how the markets re-act to the election result.
Markets like certainty. I think a clear Obama victory will see the a healthy rally. A narrow victory will trigger a bit of a sell off and a McCain victory will see the market testing for new lows.
New lows in many areas I suspect.
The Repubs thought they were being very clever in Nixon’s day when they became the party of white southern racism: they thought it would give them a permanent national majority. The problem is that the moderate Repub strongholds – New England, NY, PA, the upper Midwest, the Pacific coast – increasingly won’t vote for Repubs of any kind because they don’t like the Gingrich-Lott-DeLay-Bush southern Repub aristocracy that now runs the party.
Fox are talking about how Obama can win the popular vote by 4 or 5 million but still lose the election. “Who knows, Obama’s big lead in the national polling could be made up of California and Jersey.”
Doesn’t this demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of how national polling is done?
It demonstrates Fox News.
sounds suspiciously like “Rudd’s votes are all in the safe ALP seats…”
Didn’t Christopher Pearson pen a think piece saying that Howard could win with 48.5% 2PP?
CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, MI, NC and GA have 270 ECVs between them. So if a candidate carried each of them with 50% of the vote, and polled no votes anywhere else, they would be elected President with about 25% of the national vote.
SBS 2:30-6:30pm have CNN feed.
ABC ? Dunno
9 ? Dunno
7 ? Dunno
That was not Nixons doing he was a liberal Republican by standards not at all like Goldwater.
Has what Fox are suggesting ever happened before? Is it possible?
Intrade state level betting is still drifting toward Obama on quite high volume (over 10,000 contracts per day compared with around 1000 early in the campain).
The battle ground states according to intrade are: (state, probability, EV count if won)
VA 86% 291
OH 79% 311
FL 76% 338 (pollbludger median prediction)
NC 63% 353
MO 52% 364
IN 35% 375
MT 24% 378
The punters are giving Obama walk-up start of 338 with a reasonable prospects of pushing up to 364. After that, there is half a shot at IN and then nothing despite the close polls in some Fargo and fly-over states.
Yes Glen it was Nixon’s doing. He was not a “liberal” – just a cynic, whereas Goldwater was an idealist.
Polls opening in just a few hours… wish I didn’t have to sleep tonight!
Lincoln was elected with just under 40%, because he didn’t contest the southern states.
Bull Butter and you know it Adam.
Nixon was VP under Eisenhower, who put Eisenhower in the White House….Nelson A Rockefeller…Nixon was a moderate Republican by any stretch compared to Reagan.
Nine and Seven are both starting at 11am I think.
That doesn’t mean “liberal”. And why pick Reagan as the Republican benchmark?
I think 7 will broadcast MSNBC? And 9 CBS? I presume ABC will cover ABC and SBS will cover CNN.
So really only watch SBS, 9 and ABC.
Didn’t he start the Federal Education department?
ABC is 12 – 3 eastern
Because Oz Reagan was a Conservative.
I think i will avoid pollbludger tomorrow, i know my opinions are in the minority but it doesnt make posting on here any easier. I fear as usually i would become a punching bag.
Enjoy the result.
Politics is a tough old game, savour the wins because the losses are sometimes hard to bare.
And a unionist.
Glen
please continue to post
I for one enjoy your honest approach from time time
Glen, your abysmal ignorance is showing again. Eisenhower was the McCain of 1952 – a war hero but too moderate (and dull) for the base of the GOP, who had wanted Taft as the nominee. Nixon was his Palin – a right-wing attack-dog who had cut his teeth as a McCarthyite Senator. Reagan was drawn into the GOP in 1964 by Goldwater, not Nixon. Goldwater was an extreme rightist but also a dreamy idealist and a very likeable man. No-one ever much liked Nixon, who was always dour and mistrustful. Reagan is much better seen as Goldwater’s heir than Nixon’s. On the previous point, Nixon invented the “southern strategy” with the advice of Strom Thurmond.
Indiana is back in the McCain column on my aggregates after Zogby put him ahead 50-45.
I thought the Democrats and the Republicans both wanted Eisenhower in 1948?
But didn’t Goldwater end his senate career denouncing the Religious Right?
Glen, I appreciate that losses are hard to bear and what goes around comes around. One side of politics doesn’t always hold force forever. We know that and it is that knowledge in concert with the pain of (Australian elections) 96/98/01/04 and (US elections) 00 and 04 that makes this year so much more sweet.
Eventually the tide turns and we’ll be on the short end of the stick.
Wrong Adam.
Nelson A Rockefeller and the moderates rallied behind Eisenhower to stop Taft winning the nomination.
Election guesses now officially suspended
…. good luck, folks, see you on the other side 
Awesome job, juliem! I hope my guess of 311 is conservative.
I would be more upset if the moderate Republicans get thrown out than if Obama wins because it is very rare that one party wins 3 elections in a row Bush Snr won in 1988 mainly because Reagan was still popular that is the exception.
I dislike much of the Republican Christian Conservative base since i disagree with most of their social policy, so to see moderates lose will feel worse.
Oh no way! I was meant to change my guess! Stupid essay marking.
Hope you’ve got a glass of red by your side.
Are you a fellow chalkie, ShowsOn?
Glen – I endorse what Gusface says…
Will be keen to hear your perspective as the count comes in.
There are those of us here who feel PB would not be the same without you – especially on a historic night such as tonight.
Adam – I did want to ask you for any moderate republican govenors in existence iyo. Specter, if a bit younger, might have made an interesting 2012 candidate (from the right kind of state?)
I hope Smith hangs on.
I reckon Hagel for SecState on Jan 20… Obi has to keep true to the West Wing script!
Truman tried to recruit Ike for the 1952 election but he was always a Republican at heart, albeit a moderate one.
Goldwater was of Jewish descent and was a secular, national security rightist, he didn’t like religious zealots. So he didn’t much like the GOP as it became by the time he retired.
I don’t know what Rockfeller was doing politically in 1952 but he wasn’t anywhere near the front rank of the GOP. He didn’t run for Governor of NY until 1958. In 1952 I think he was just a rich philanthropist.
“so to see moderates lose will feel worse”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/opinion/03krugman.html?bl&ex=1225947600&en=619f33f7ae064dcc&ei=5087
Actually that was my mistake Adam. It most likely would have been Dewey who teamed up to stop Taft, they didnt get along.
I just thought it was weird that you said he was a “liberal Republican” but your only benchmark was Reagan.
… always wanted to use the phrase “I endorse”!!!
Guys, I love this site and enjoy the to-and-fro… and find myself depending on it for intellectual stimulation out here in the political backwaters! We can disagree as much as we like and dress it up in a bit of abuse (I’m not above that), but lets not have anyone feel disrespected here too much? I even miss Edward St John and would have enjoyed his contribution today…
My kudos to Ron and the Amigos – don’t agree with you guys often, but a pure lovefest here would be MUCH more boring.
Kumbaya all…
For WA Bludgers Seven’s coverage will be at 9am Western Daylight Time, dunno about Nine, while the SBS coverage starts at Noon.
I’ve actually got a glass of milk. How lame is that!
Uni tutor. I try to use white boards – unsuccessfully.
Was he to Nixon’s right on economics?
First count in:
DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (CNN) — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama emerged victorious in the first election returns of the 2008 presidential race, winning 15 of 21 votes cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.
A good start, if a bit unrepresentative.
So he got about 70%. In 2004, Bush got 70% of possibly the same votes.
Dixville Notch is no bellweather. First time it’s gone Dem since 1968.
hilary would have…… good grief Imdoing it now
Does anyone know the best interactive map that will be updating live tomorrow?
I did see some strange poll on CNN a few days back, where 50+% of those polled identified as “conservative”, something like 35% “liberal” and around 20% “moderate”
Self-identified liberals was surprisingly high (but don’t know who was polled, etc)
Could anyone venture a guess where the line between liberal and moderate is (do you think its a fiscal/economic distinction but not social)… and, for that matter where the line between conservative & moderate is (I suspect social distinction but not fiscal)???
Yes, Goldwater was a pure free-market liberal, almost a libertarian. Nixon was a cynical opportunist who wasn’t interested in economics as such. His response to inflation in 1971 was a wage and price freeze! Milton Friedman nearly had a fit on TV, I remember it well. Nixon was really only interested in power and revenge for their own sake.
That sounds about right. The Democrats win by binding the Liberals and the Moderates. The Republicans win by scaring some of the moderates to bind to the Conservatives.
I installed this widget thing:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27227813
If anybody is the biggest loser tomorrow it isnt McCain…it’s Hillary Clinton.
I suspect people will write What If? books on her winning the nomination and becoming President.
Just a reminder before I go: in 2004 the last polls showed Kerry winning the election, mainly because he was 5% ahead in Florida.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov02.html
It ain’t over til it’s over.
I agree Glen. I said almost a year ago that the US was headed for a recession and Hillary would romp home under those circumstances. She has been pretty gracious about it really but she must feel frustrated – Obama has run a god campaign but has had all the breaks.
Why isnt Hillary Senate Majority Leader???
You’re right, Adam, it’s certainly not over in Florida…
lets say i am an economic liberal but social conservative (like Huckabee might be depicted)… am I a conservative?
that’s hypothetical, of course… I suspect I am a moderate (I think)
Glen, you are so right about Hilary… she must be banging her head against a wall somewhere big time… I wonder if she was offered VP but turned it down… (one day we’ll know)… her 2012 strategy is gone now, and she’ll be too old in 2016? Its poss she asked Obi to go with Biden with a view to replacing him at the next election…
It could be a new genre! Hillary alternative history fiction!
“Obama has run a god campaign ” well messianic at least
and also a pretty good one too.
That’s a job given out based on seniority, she hasn’t been there long enough.
I suppose Adam is right – none of us know for sure how the count will go tomorrow. But I can’t see McCain doing a Bush this time. There is no swift-boat equivalent against Obama, who has already got a reported 59% of the 30% early votes in the bag. I don’t see how Obama can lose from here.
Sorry Gus, an interesting typo there!
Reflects his press coverage?
Great story on Malaysian politics on Foreign correspondent tonight.
Reid isnt exactly the Dems best performer though.
I still think McCain will win Florida and Ohio but lose the election handsomely.
If Obama doesnt put Hillary on the ticket in 2012, he’s not setting the Dems up for 2016 at all. The last thing they need is Biden to be a Dick Cheney.
Bush made a grave error in not choosing a younger VP candidate who could have ran this election….not that it would have mattered but still, better than Dick.
Joe Scarborough… “Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago… Fours years ago… Four years ago…”
Hubris, Glen. Hubris
Wasn’t it Goldwater who wanted to nuke North Vietnam ‘back to the stone age’?
Biden won’t be Dick Cheney, he isn’t that power hungry.
Cheney chose himself remember. Bush assigned him the tax of vetting V.P. candidates, and then somehow he concluded that HE would be the best candidate! If that isn’t a power hungry guy, I don’t know who is.
Dewey, Dewey, Dewey, Dewey, Dewey…
This says as much, if not more, about the methodology of electoral-vote.com – where polls are continually dropped and replaced – as it does about the polls themselves. Not all polls are the same of course. It’s like dropping a week old Morgan poll for a new Galaxy poll and calling it a ‘narrowing’.
Truman, Truman, Truman, Truman, Truman…
I’m telling you Glen, Truman wins.
The early votes are probably heavily skewed by Obama voters disproportionately selecting themselves to vote early. There have been anecdotal reports that the mood in the queues is ‘upbeat’, not ‘desperate’.
Harry T was a good President though. Still i must admit i like Dewey as well.
david
damn,you beat me to it this time
Hilary will be how old in 2016 – almost 70?
Watch for Tim Kaine or Mark Warner to replace Biden… Virginia has some real talent on the Dem side these days (inc Webb).
Who was on Bush’s shortlist before Cheney proposed himself… I think Elizabeth Dole was right up there… so, am not too cut up about that!! Have I mentioned that Bachmann from Minnesota absolutely has to go too…
Jindal should wait for 2016, assuming he has a successful govenorship – but he ain’t no Vinick either… where are we going to find a moderate for 2012/2016… I still think Romney Mark 1 is the only real bet at the moment?
History Channel narrator: America, 1948. Americans pick their president. Victory seemed certain for Governor Thomas E. Dewey.
Homer: Dewey! Dewey! Dewey! Dewey!
Lisa: Dad, I’m telling you. Truman wins.
Narrator: The headlines proclaim, “Dewey defeats Truman.”
Homer: Yes, I win the bet! Who’s your daddy?!
Narrator: But the headlines are dead wrong. Harry Truman triumphs by two million votes.
Homer: Not if I can stop that inauguration!
Romney would be too old and will go probably for 2012 because he wont make it in 2016.
If it takes till 2016 the Republican probably isnt even in politics yet lol.
The Simpsons is so insanely clever I don’t even know if you can call it funny. The satire of politics, US politics in particular, rings so true.
glen
what is wrong with huckabee.
I actually like the guy (dont know much about his policies, but he looks “safe”)
He is doing his apprenticeship now…
In 2016, Joe the Plumber becomes JOE THE POLITICIAN!
Since they’re unlikely to get in this election, wouldn’t that them “unexperienced”?
Night all – I’ll leave with a line (via Doonsebury) from fromer Sec of State Lawrence Eagleberger on Palin:
When the Repubs wonder why they lost, I’ll give them a pointer – the answer ain’t in the “lower 48″. (It was Hawaii and Alaska what done it)
Hmmm i like Huckabee he would appeal to the base, but he is quite socially conservative.
I would rather Huckabee in 2012 than Romney.
Huckabee actually has his own talk show on Fox lol!
So true, Oz.
Flanders: “We live in that small space of land between New York and California called the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!”
Betfair has McCain out to 16 tonight from 12.5 this morning. Oh teh narrowing, teh narrowing, time to wake up from an 8 year nightmare!
yep and they cut it both ways:
and with that, goodnight!
David W went:
Spot on. Electoral-vote has been comprehensively trumped by Pollster.com this year for state and national polling data. There’s been no narrowing on the national trends, there’s been a few states that have narrowed for McCain, a few that have narrowed for Obama and most of the ones where the narrowing occurred on Electoral Vote haven’t actually occurred at all according to the raw data.
If Obama wins I think there are lots of reasons. The republicans have given him four good ones:
- a lame duck incumbent president
- Palin
- a crashed economy they are impotent to fix
- a deeply divided republican party base
In fact, while I think Obama has run a genuinely good campaign, this one has been easier for him than it should have been. I don’t think we will really know if Obama is a top political campaigner until 2012, when he may face a tougher opponent.
I agree with you in some ways, Socrates. If the economy wasn’t so bad I think we’d be talking about a toss-up election. But I think you’re selling Obama a bit short. He had to defeat the Clinton machine.
http://www.johnmccain.com/Downloads/110308SHP.pdf
Palin’s medical record. Good thing ltep isn’t here to yell at me.
I think the bigger test was Clinton, not McCain.
Socrates
are you saying this is “the drovers dog” election.
I agree that obi has had a dream run btw
Your right Obama did run an excelent primary campaign – that was a tough contest, so perhaps I have been too harsh on his campaigning skills. But the election no – it has all gone his way since August.
I am probably being over cautious on Obama. I want him to win but don’t have enormous expectations of him in office. As with Rudd, I’ll be very pleasantly surprised if he really takes the mantle and creates genuine change.
+1
And with that, I’ll see you all after the jump.
Good evening all.
Tomorrow the world will become a better place
YES WE CAN
The game will be a whole lot different in four years. Provided he makes something like a decent fist of it, the pres has huge incumbency power. Apart from that, the fear machine will have much more difficulty with someone who has been around for four years – unless he stops the US getting into a couple more absolutely ‘necessary’ wars, bans guns in the US, halves the expenditure on the military, further trashes the economy, and gets caught in bed with Ahmadinejad and Bin Laden.
The GOP have four years to try to cobble together a reconciliation between the irreconcilable – the Palin know-nothing crazy right, and whatever the thoughtful and decent moderates GOPcan scratch together.
Thats not a medical record Oz, its a sick note
Final University of Cincinnati Poll for Ohio
Obama 52
McCain 44
Huckabee 2012 is not a bad bet – he is very likeable and acceptable to the whackjob part of the base. Has a good gubernatorial record in Arkansas… but the economic conservatives hated him… maybe he can spend a couple of years brushing up on that. His social views aren’t going to work too much with independents, though.
He was very unlucky this time around… Thompson siphoned just enough votes off him in Sth Carolina for McCain to sneak into 1st… mind you, he did the same against Romney for cadaverboy to take Florida. If Huck had won the SC primary…
I have to send another rasberry to Giulliani – he wins the contest for most idiotic strategy hands down (even worse than Hilary, and Mac here in the general). Some guys do seem to be charmed – think Blair & Rudd… but they do make their own luck?
Expat @ 545
Yep. Unlike Howard, Blair made some more ‘luck’ for himself by being pushed/jumping just before the kaka hit the fan. George Brown did all the hard yakka and is now carrying the can.
Based around increasing taxes!
Redistributing the wealth! HE’S A SOCIALIST!!!
Night all, see you in a new era of democracy
I’m off too. Let’s just hope what should happen actually happens.
Wow, it’s the quiet hour, should I put on some old Jazz records?
shows
Anyone who thinks that tax:national income % isn’t going to rise in the USA in the coming era is absolutely stupid. Its the legacy of Reagan/Bushism that has to go… the tax revenues in the US are about 3% too low at least, and cannot be sustained at those levels. Doesn’t matter who is in charge.
I wonder whether the ethos in the US will adapt to this unmistakeable reality, so that the “I will reduce taxes” republican line will not be taken so seriously by 2012?
I happen to think that Clinton inherited a very good wicket because Bush snr broke his “read my lips” pledge… now, talk about a charmed guy – Cuomo didn’t run (he’s one of those guys probably still whacking his head against a wall), Perot did (and his 19% handed the election to Clinton),… he was blessed in ‘02. Even more than Obi in ‘08, I reckon.
Night all – to a better world tomorrow
shows
you inspired me to put on the duck,galapagos duck that is
sweet
I think my dad has one of their records!
“The rate to beat in modern times is the 64 percent who voted in 1960. But the real record was set a century ago, when 66 percent voted in a race that no doubt warms the heart of Mr. McCain: 1908 was the year that William Howard Taft, the Republican, defeated the golden-tongued Democrat, William Jennings Bryan (and a real Socialist, Eugene V. Debs).”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/04/us/politics/04guide.html?hp
As the Bush era draws to a close, a trip down memory lane – via the Onion from January 2001:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784
shows, steady on there old son
I was born in 62,though my eldest bro was born in 49 or 50.
my da’s records were of marconi going “check 1,2 check”
LOL!
And let me guess, he owned the RCA dog?
http://www.fabre.com/Images/rca-dog.jpg
shows
da was a bit of a bastard leaving the pal down the speaker I suppose
rover never could figure how to get it out,especially with da’s voice going “dins dins rover”
(maybe thats why he kept losing weight…..)
Well th amigos ar still here and undeterred by th loving mania , although one is gavalanting around south america doing polling research on this narowing as we speak
Enemy Marsupial fell out of th tree tinking no narrowing , some tightening has ocured in some key States although quality of e/v polstars varys but National not so but thats spread everywhers , still feel turnout will exceed Pollstars general likely voter expectation rates favouring Obama as a ggreater offset plus to Obama
OK for those who need a clue heres the best US web-site for this election – http://www.electoral-vote.com/ if any can sggest any other please share!
Realclear politics and Pollster .com
aussie
this is a pretty cool site-more for stories as opposed to maps.
The picture of the guy in the wheelchair sums up this election-what commitment
“Roger Clark watches as a poll worker hangs signs for his voting precinct prior to opening at the Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis High School in New York Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008. Clark, referring to Barack Obama’s candidacy, said, “I never thought I would live to see this. It’s a miracle”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gYbBmMmElgU_AjfYlbWgYFe66cqAD94848MG0
Geez, that national vote is blowing out a bit.
I haven’t made my EV pick yet, so here goes.
I’m going to pick 315 EV for Obama
Kerry states plus
Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, North Dakota (or Montana, not both) and 1 EV from Nebraska.
Once we know Virginia and Ohio turn and Pennsylvania holds blue, we will know the result- that will be over the top enough for me.
Hopefully Arizona is the new Benelong- you remember Benelong don’t your Glen?
Obama filling in his ballot right now. No wonder the lines get so long in the US… they seem to have to fill out so much crap on their ballots… he’s been at it for nearly 10 minutes!
What about Kay Hagan for Dem VP in 2012 even if she doesn’t beat Mrs Dole?
Th reluctance of strong Obama suporters to acknowledge how easily Hillary was defeating McCain on polling at end of Primarys in May hav prevented seeing th game changer of this electon AND to hav confidense in a big Obama win
Overwhelming % of voters ALWAYS wanted a Democrat winner this year Thosae polls at May end had Hillary 327 e/v’s alreaduy …..EXCLUDING line ball States that since hav got mostly 10% PLUS Democrat leads (MI , WI , VA , CO , IA ..thats another 56 e/v’s to 383) So th sentiment was always there ‘its time’ against Bush
All that occured for 3 months post Primarys was voters had unease with Obama hence th statstical tie/close McCain lead for 10 days before th Bailout BUT despite that unease with Obama , obviousley voters would not hav changed there sentiment to hav a Democrat and a change for th Republicons
I suggest th Bailout destroyed McCain both through Bush’s ‘ownership’ of it (read Repblican ownership) and then Mccain’s naive attempt to reeturn to Washington to get it passed (confirming Republicon and his ‘ownership’ of it) Whatever unease there was with Obama was swept aside by greater dislike for th financial ruins “owned” in voters minds by th Republicans (read McCain)….th sentiment for a Democrat was then linked to an over whelming reason , voters & th Countries financials
Fact that Obama sat pat initially reely confirmed it was not his baby (his fault) as well and Obama’s politcaly clever brief involvement only highlighted where ‘blame’ could be apportioned…and there’s no doubt Pelosi’s team in Washington going on th front foot publicly shrewdley repreating where th ‘blame’ belonged was from Obama Suggested at time electon decider and th Polls trends from bailout out date 20/9/08 immediately reflected this massive shift to Obama
It was thereafter Obama’s only to lose and since then he has not put a foot wrong in th campaign program and here we ar
It is selling th US public short that voters did not want a change , afterall why wouldn’t that sdentiment be there with th worst POTUS (Bush) there with Iraq etc going ….th actual polling for Hillary proves it whereas Obama was new so voter unease in comparative polling is quite logical and reasnable lots of swingers people ar reluctant to change into unknown …but th bailout & Wall Street ruins swept that away confirming there pre existing sentiment This gav Obama th lead but as I said a lead that was losable if he st.fffed up big time , well he didn’t even st.ff up small time in last 5 weeks just stayed on general mesage and avoided pottyholes ….but McCain did by changing messages plus with Palin creating a distracton , but reely I don’t tink either McCain’s or Palin’s performanse in th last 5 weeks has had a massive negative effect because voters progressively (some quicker than others) simply took in th financial ruins and bailout implications in th Media confirming there reasonns for there sentimant for a Democrot POTUS AND concurrently saw Obama’s therefore logical same message for change and without making politcal gaffes as further evidence of there wishs & reassurance of there decision IF so , it will be a big turnout and large win
Ron:
“Th reluctance of strong Obama suporters to acknowledge how easily Hillary was defeating McCain on polling at end of Primarys in May hav prevented seeing th game changer of this electon AND to hav confidense in a big Obama win”
Mate – this makes no sense whatsoever?
Obi is going to fulfil his wildest dreams – a whopping victory without having Hilary on his back. I thought he should have compromised/hedged and put Hilary on the ticket… but he stuck to his guns – kudos.
So Hilary in the immediate aftermath of some redneck primaries was beating McCain in the polls… it is entirely possible that (a) the repub base backlash against Hilary could have been 10x stronger, (b) some more interesting Clinton stuff could have come out in the campaign, and (c) that McCain could have run a much more centrist campaign against Hilary the divisive one instead of what he’s chosen to/was forced to against Obama, (d) might not have picked Palin,…
The economic meltdown would most likely have delivered a whopping victory to Hilary as well (the circs post Sept trump polling in May in terms of drawable inferences?). But Hilary didn’t get the nomination for many reasons – and in my opinion (note that I’m not stating it as fact) chief among them being running a poor strategic campaign and running the populist/low intellectual road in the face of Obama’s relatively principled campaign…
The hypotheticals are endless – at BEST your proposition is highly debatable… that you assert it as fact suggests more sour grapes than rational analysis
… further, knowing the financial fallout in hindsight it WAS the Democrats’ to lose – whether Obama or Hilary… the nomination was HILARY’s to lose, and she lost it (plus Obama won it). Glen is right in terms of who is going to feel the worst on Nov 5… having said that, her teamplayer behaviour has been beyond exemplarary since the convention, and she deserves whatever role it is she wants to play (be it SecHealth or Majleader in the Senate)
as a total aside, very little speculation on whether Pelosi & Reid both keep their jobs after the election – is it that certain? They both suck eggs, in my view, and it would be totally refreshing to replace them with new faces along with a new Prez?
And whilst th Amigos will continue to ride spreading cheer , with FINNS in Venuzuala as we speak , and before excitements of Obama’s win cloud posters thoughts with joys , perhaps a serious tank you to William for his excellent polling aggregate figures , charts & data should not be forgotten
My last comment before taking a break (see y’all in the morning Aussie time)… maybe the most reconciling analogy is that she is like Stuey MacGill to Obi’s Shane Warne – she would have been plenty good, but it just was someone else’s time? Who else… someone who would have been great, but had the misfortune of overlapping with someone greater (that’ll get your blood boiling, Amigos!!): Hopkins to Roy Jones, MHayden to Slater, BHayden to Hawke (a bit of a stretch). Note in most cases, the unfortunate one seems to get their chance at glory at some point… maybe it’ll happen for Hilary too (not sure as Prez tho).
Until polls close, everyone – looking forward to it!
the most unfortunately, cruelly treated polly I can think of: John Fahey State NSW – he did absolutely nothing wrong, only to have to yield to Bob Carr (who was very good). Boy, I felt sorry for him – was happy when he made Finance Minister, but then he got sick and I don’t know what happened to him…
Expat @ 574
If it is the same John Fahey, he became a federal member for the libs. He had an operation to remove a lung – cancer – which he survived. He left parliament by choice, I believe. He was recently appointed Head of the International Sports Drug Enforcement Body – whatever its correct title is.
John Fahey now heads the World Anti Doping Authority, I believe…
I didn’t realise how poorly timed my UK move was – I’m going to be up all night with this bloomin’ election… so I’ll be praying for a quick kill, which may see me get to bed by 3am.
Snap, Boer…
Expat Follower
You ar showing sour grapes when statistical facts ar presented that you can not refute Fact is th stats prove all year voters wanted to turf out th Republicons whether you like it or not
You seem to misunderstand th diference between voter sentiment and voter decison to implement that sentiment because of some latent anti Hillary feeling
Had you followed my post acurately you would hav seen th sentiment obviously was there for BOTH Hillary AND Obama ….and th Bush legacy was th compelling reason To suggest otherwise defys normative politcal voter reaction
It was ALSO there in 2007 against Howard , that sentament to change , but Rudd like Hillary got quick conversion to voter intent , and Obama delayed & Obama got his from th bailout….but a good politcal campaign was still nescessary for Rudd as it was there to lose like Obama , and Rudd also got an event (APEC & Interest increase) but still could lose without sticking to th messae & no gaffes
However to convert that sentamant into sufficent decisive swinging vote numbers requires voter confidence in th alternative , lack of gaffes by th politcal alternative and ‘events’ going th alternatives way and against
My listing of hillarys figures was to simply demonstrate that voter strong majority senttiment was already there by voters to vote for a Democrat (so put your negative Hillary hat away)
My listing of Obama was to to suggest th same strong majority sentament to vote for a Democrat must hav been there at that time AS WELL , but was not relfected in comparative polling as he was new and voters need confidence etc (as listed above) to switch/convert there sentament Th polls from June show that did not imbededly occur until th bailout Deal with it In fact so uninbeded was it that th electon was effectively a tie beforeahand for th preceding 10 days
And th bailout & Wall Street financial ruins could not be a greater reason for voters to convert sentament to voting decision
Then as I said it was for Obama’s to lose …and politcaly its not ahrd to lose politcal campaigns …but Obama’s campaign as I said did not put a foot wrong , it was a clever campaign , did not make gaffes and kept on message …”change”…which then had an even more powerful rreality abou it from th Media storys of th bailout & numerrous Banks collapsing
My post simply discussed what changed
Its fantasyland stuff to tink all of a sudden in mid September some mythical Obama speechs cobverted th masses sentament , events and politcal meesages to those events do
There’s a couple of good vids that I’d not previously seen in the following link… it’s nice to bring it all together now as the climax approaches…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/oliverburkemanblog/2008/nov/04/uselections2008-barackobama
Well, I hope you all enjoy the flirtation with communism. It won’t last long.
NOBAMA!
566, deadline for changes was 10pm last night …… I’ve got you in under your previous pick of 273
Gee, GP, you couldn’t sleep either?
I’m a Perthite with a body clock still getting used to eastern states clockshifting. 1.53am ain’t so late to a uni student, and anyway, it’s really earlier.
I’m cheering for Obama (quietly, I don’t wanna wake the flatmate up), but I’ll only believe Americans will actually vote for a black guy when it actually happens, and not before. Carn Yanks… don’t stuff it up. CARRN.
another voter testimonial
….
close to 60% of New Mexico has voted early in one way, shape or form ….
Ron,
peace dude – sorry if I misunderstood you, but I think you’ve misunderstood me also. I reckon Hilary would crush McCain today because of the same economic winds that have blown Obi’s wet sail. Any generic Democrat would win in today’s environment. Where I thought we disagreed was if one were to delete this factor (this is pure speculation now), who would be in a better position to win the General. You think Hilary, I disagree – for some of the (a)-(d) reasons listed in my reply to you. But its really speculative and not the sort of argument where facts are easily available that are likely to convince anyone who feels differently – would you agree with that?
Like I suggested in a prior post, we can agree on this much – its a good day for the US and the rest of the world relative to the last 365 x 8. Let us enjoy that – the action is 2hrs away now, I can’t wait.
Thanks to the others for the John Fahey update. He was the sort of Liberal (in the Aussie sense) that I could easily support… and I hope he is doing well.
States to watch that close first: Virginia, Indiana & Georgia? Followed half an hour later by Nth Carolina & Ohio?
WHAT AM I GOING TO DO FOR 2 HRS…. watch a re-run of Law & Order and The West Wing, I guess!
Remember, whatever, happens….
HILLARY WOULD’VE WON BY MORE!