Or possibly one day, depending on what time zone you’re in. This will in any case be the final thread for presidential fat-chewing purposes prior to the live blogging of the count, which will begin an hour or two before the first states close their polls. Firstly we have the latest polling aggregate figures, in which McCain has (at the time of writing) taken the lead in Indiana and Missouri and narrowed the gap to various degrees in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, while losing ground in Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Washington | 56.5 | 39.4 | 3322 | 11 | |
| Maine | 56.6 | 40.3 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 56.1 | 41.7 | 3270 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 56.4 | 42.1 | 3232 | 17 | |
| New Mexico | 57.1 | 43.0 | 3305 | 5 | |
| New Hampshire | 55.0 | 41.7 | 3900 | 4 | |
| Iowa | 54.2 | 41.4 | 3052 | 7 | |
| Wisconsin | 53.4 | 42.1 | 3003 | 10 | |
| Colorado | 54.9 | 44.5 | 3248 | 9 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.1 | 43.1 | 5479 | 21 | |
| Nevada | 51.7 | 45.2 | 3168 | 5 | |
| Virginia | 52.0 | 45.6 | 3382 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 50.6 | 46.1 | 6490 | 20 | |
| Florida | 50.0 | 46.6 | 5381 | 27 | |
| North Dakota | 47.7 | 45.7 | 1706 | 3 | |
| Montana | 48.7 | 47.4 | 3934 | 3 | |
| Missouri | 49.9 | 48.6 | 3217 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 50.1 | 49.1 | 5582 | 15 | |
| Indiana | 48.6 | 48.7 | 3834 | 11 | |
| Georgia | 47.9 | 49.9 | 3248 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 44.0 | 54.1 | 3328 | 5 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 52.0 | 44.2 | - | 370 | 168 |
Not sure how illuminating this is, but the following map shows the swing in each state as indicated by Electoral-Vote’s poll averages. White indicates either no change from 2004 or a swing to the Republicans, the latter only applying to Massachusetts where John Kerry presumably garnered a handsome home-state vote. The deepest shade of blue indicates a swing of over 20 per cent. Swing is measured by comparing the vote gap between Republican and Democrats.
This chart indicates how polling in various states has shifted since October 13, as measured by my own polling aggregates. John McCain’s furious campaigning in Pennsylvania has yielded a 7.7 per cent narrowing, which while highly impressive is still nowhere near enough. He has also gained ground in Florida (Obama’s lead is down 4.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent), North Carolina (4.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent), Virginia (3.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent) and Missouri (from 2.3 per cent behind to 0.7 per cent ahead). Barack Obama has extended his lead in New Mexico (up 5.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent), Washington (up 3.8 per cent to 15.7 per cent) and Minnesota (up 3.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent). Ignore Maine, where there have only been a few polls.
Finally, many thanks to reader Viggo Pedersen for compiling this list of poll closing times in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.
| State | Close AEDT |
Electoral Votes |
Cumulative EV |
| Vermont | 1100 | 3 | |
| Kentucky | 1100 | 8 | |
| South Carolina | 1100 | 8 | |
| Indiana | 1100 | 11 | |
| Virginia | 1100 | 13 | |
| Georgia | 1100 | 15 | 58 |
| West Virginia | 1130 | 5 | |
| Ohio | 1130 | 20 | 83 |
| Delaware | 1200 | 3 | |
| District Of Columbia | 1200 | 3 | |
| Maine | 1200 | 4 | |
| New Hampshire | 1200 | 4 | |
| Mississippi | 1200 | 6 | |
| Connecticut | 1200 | 7 | |
| Oklahoma | 1200 | 7 | |
| Alabama | 1200 | 9 | |
| Maryland | 1200 | 10 | |
| Missouri | 1200 | 11 | |
| Tennessee | 1200 | 11 | |
| Massachusetts | 1200 | 12 | |
| New Jersey | 1200 | 15 | |
| Illinois | 1200 | 21 | |
| Pennsylvania | 1200 | 21 | |
| Florida | 1200 | 27 | 254 |
| Arkansas | 1230 | 6 | |
| North Carolina | 1230 | 15 | 275 |
| South Dakota | 1300 | 3 | |
| Wyoming | 1300 | 3 | |
| Rhode Island | 1300 | 4 | |
| Nebraska | 1300 | 5 | |
| New Mexico | 1300 | 5 | |
| Kansas | 1300 | 6 | |
| Colorado | 1300 | 9 | |
| Louisiana | 1300 | 9 | |
| Arizona | 1300 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 1300 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 1300 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 1300 | 17 | |
| New York | 1300 | 31 | |
| Texas | 1300 | 34 | 431 |
| Montana | 1400 | 3 | |
| Nevada | 1400 | 5 | |
| Utah | 1400 | 5 | |
| Iowa | 1400 | 7 | 451 |
| North Dakota | 1500 | 3 | |
| Hawaii | 1500 | 4 | |
| Idaho | 1500 | 4 | |
| Oregon | 1500 | 7 | |
| Washington | 1500 | 11 | |
| California | 1500 | 55 | 535 |
| Alaska | 1700 | 3 | 538 |
587 Comments
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Doesn’t this demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of how national polling is done?
It demonstrates Fox News.
sounds suspiciously like “Rudd’s votes are all in the safe ALP seats…”
Didn’t Christopher Pearson pen a think piece saying that Howard could win with 48.5% 2PP?
CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, MI, NC and GA have 270 ECVs between them. So if a candidate carried each of them with 50% of the vote, and polled no votes anywhere else, they would be elected President with about 25% of the national vote.
SBS 2:30-6:30pm have CNN feed.
ABC ? Dunno
9 ? Dunno
7 ? Dunno
That was not Nixons doing he was a liberal Republican by standards not at all like Goldwater.
Has what Fox are suggesting ever happened before? Is it possible?
Intrade state level betting is still drifting toward Obama on quite high volume (over 10,000 contracts per day compared with around 1000 early in the campain).
The battle ground states according to intrade are: (state, probability, EV count if won)
VA 86% 291
OH 79% 311
FL 76% 338 (pollbludger median prediction)
NC 63% 353
MO 52% 364
IN 35% 375
MT 24% 378
The punters are giving Obama walk-up start of 338 with a reasonable prospects of pushing up to 364. After that, there is half a shot at IN and then nothing despite the close polls in some Fargo and fly-over states.
Yes Glen it was Nixon’s doing. He was not a “liberal” – just a cynic, whereas Goldwater was an idealist.
Polls opening in just a few hours… wish I didn’t have to sleep tonight!
Lincoln was elected with just under 40%, because he didn’t contest the southern states.
Bull Butter and you know it Adam.
Nixon was VP under Eisenhower, who put Eisenhower in the White House….Nelson A Rockefeller…Nixon was a moderate Republican by any stretch compared to Reagan.
Nine and Seven are both starting at 11am I think.
That doesn’t mean “liberal”. And why pick Reagan as the Republican benchmark?
I think 7 will broadcast MSNBC? And 9 CBS? I presume ABC will cover ABC and SBS will cover CNN.
So really only watch SBS, 9 and ABC.
Didn’t he start the Federal Education department?
ABC is 12 – 3 eastern
Because Oz Reagan was a Conservative.
I think i will avoid pollbludger tomorrow, i know my opinions are in the minority but it doesnt make posting on here any easier. I fear as usually i would become a punching bag.
Enjoy the result.
Politics is a tough old game, savour the wins because the losses are sometimes hard to bare.
And a unionist.
Glen
please continue to post
I for one enjoy your honest approach from time time
Glen, your abysmal ignorance is showing again. Eisenhower was the McCain of 1952 – a war hero but too moderate (and dull) for the base of the GOP, who had wanted Taft as the nominee. Nixon was his Palin – a right-wing attack-dog who had cut his teeth as a McCarthyite Senator. Reagan was drawn into the GOP in 1964 by Goldwater, not Nixon. Goldwater was an extreme rightist but also a dreamy idealist and a very likeable man. No-one ever much liked Nixon, who was always dour and mistrustful. Reagan is much better seen as Goldwater’s heir than Nixon’s. On the previous point, Nixon invented the “southern strategy” with the advice of Strom Thurmond.
Indiana is back in the McCain column on my aggregates after Zogby put him ahead 50-45.
I thought the Democrats and the Republicans both wanted Eisenhower in 1948?
But didn’t Goldwater end his senate career denouncing the Religious Right?
Glen, I appreciate that losses are hard to bear and what goes around comes around. One side of politics doesn’t always hold force forever. We know that and it is that knowledge in concert with the pain of (Australian elections) 96/98/01/04 and (US elections) 00 and 04 that makes this year so much more sweet.
Eventually the tide turns and we’ll be on the short end of the stick.
Wrong Adam.
Nelson A Rockefeller and the moderates rallied behind Eisenhower to stop Taft winning the nomination.
Election guesses now officially suspended
…. good luck, folks, see you on the other side 
Awesome job, juliem! I hope my guess of 311 is conservative.
I would be more upset if the moderate Republicans get thrown out than if Obama wins because it is very rare that one party wins 3 elections in a row Bush Snr won in 1988 mainly because Reagan was still popular that is the exception.
I dislike much of the Republican Christian Conservative base since i disagree with most of their social policy, so to see moderates lose will feel worse.
Oh no way! I was meant to change my guess! Stupid essay marking.
Hope you’ve got a glass of red by your side.
Are you a fellow chalkie, ShowsOn?
Glen – I endorse what Gusface says…
Will be keen to hear your perspective as the count comes in.
There are those of us here who feel PB would not be the same without you – especially on a historic night such as tonight.
Adam – I did want to ask you for any moderate republican govenors in existence iyo. Specter, if a bit younger, might have made an interesting 2012 candidate (from the right kind of state?)
I hope Smith hangs on.
I reckon Hagel for SecState on Jan 20… Obi has to keep true to the West Wing script!
Truman tried to recruit Ike for the 1952 election but he was always a Republican at heart, albeit a moderate one.
Goldwater was of Jewish descent and was a secular, national security rightist, he didn’t like religious zealots. So he didn’t much like the GOP as it became by the time he retired.
I don’t know what Rockfeller was doing politically in 1952 but he wasn’t anywhere near the front rank of the GOP. He didn’t run for Governor of NY until 1958. In 1952 I think he was just a rich philanthropist.
“so to see moderates lose will feel worse”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/opinion/03krugman.html?bl&ex=1225947600&en=619f33f7ae064dcc&ei=5087
Actually that was my mistake Adam. It most likely would have been Dewey who teamed up to stop Taft, they didnt get along.
I just thought it was weird that you said he was a “liberal Republican” but your only benchmark was Reagan.
… always wanted to use the phrase “I endorse”!!!
Guys, I love this site and enjoy the to-and-fro… and find myself depending on it for intellectual stimulation out here in the political backwaters! We can disagree as much as we like and dress it up in a bit of abuse (I’m not above that), but lets not have anyone feel disrespected here too much? I even miss Edward St John and would have enjoyed his contribution today…
My kudos to Ron and the Amigos – don’t agree with you guys often, but a pure lovefest here would be MUCH more boring.
Kumbaya all…
For WA Bludgers Seven’s coverage will be at 9am Western Daylight Time, dunno about Nine, while the SBS coverage starts at Noon.
I’ve actually got a glass of milk. How lame is that!
Uni tutor. I try to use white boards – unsuccessfully.
Was he to Nixon’s right on economics?
First count in:
DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (CNN) — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama emerged victorious in the first election returns of the 2008 presidential race, winning 15 of 21 votes cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.
A good start, if a bit unrepresentative.
So he got about 70%. In 2004, Bush got 70% of possibly the same votes.
Dixville Notch is no bellweather. First time it’s gone Dem since 1968.
hilary would have…… good grief Imdoing it now
Does anyone know the best interactive map that will be updating live tomorrow?
I did see some strange poll on CNN a few days back, where 50+% of those polled identified as “conservative”, something like 35% “liberal” and around 20% “moderate”
Self-identified liberals was surprisingly high (but don’t know who was polled, etc)
Could anyone venture a guess where the line between liberal and moderate is (do you think its a fiscal/economic distinction but not social)… and, for that matter where the line between conservative & moderate is (I suspect social distinction but not fiscal)???
Yes, Goldwater was a pure free-market liberal, almost a libertarian. Nixon was a cynical opportunist who wasn’t interested in economics as such. His response to inflation in 1971 was a wage and price freeze! Milton Friedman nearly had a fit on TV, I remember it well. Nixon was really only interested in power and revenge for their own sake.
That sounds about right. The Democrats win by binding the Liberals and the Moderates. The Republicans win by scaring some of the moderates to bind to the Conservatives.
I installed this widget thing:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27227813
If anybody is the biggest loser tomorrow it isnt McCain…it’s Hillary Clinton.
I suspect people will write What If? books on her winning the nomination and becoming President.
Just a reminder before I go: in 2004 the last polls showed Kerry winning the election, mainly because he was 5% ahead in Florida.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov02.html
It ain’t over til it’s over.
I agree Glen. I said almost a year ago that the US was headed for a recession and Hillary would romp home under those circumstances. She has been pretty gracious about it really but she must feel frustrated – Obama has run a god campaign but has had all the breaks.
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