Or possibly one day, depending on what time zone you’re in. This will in any case be the final thread for presidential fat-chewing purposes prior to the live blogging of the count, which will begin an hour or two before the first states close their polls. Firstly we have the latest polling aggregate figures, in which McCain has (at the time of writing) taken the lead in Indiana and Missouri and narrowed the gap to various degrees in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania, while losing ground in Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Washington | 56.5 | 39.4 | 3322 | 11 | |
| Maine | 56.6 | 40.3 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 56.1 | 41.7 | 3270 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 56.4 | 42.1 | 3232 | 17 | |
| New Mexico | 57.1 | 43.0 | 3305 | 5 | |
| New Hampshire | 55.0 | 41.7 | 3900 | 4 | |
| Iowa | 54.2 | 41.4 | 3052 | 7 | |
| Wisconsin | 53.4 | 42.1 | 3003 | 10 | |
| Colorado | 54.9 | 44.5 | 3248 | 9 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.1 | 43.1 | 5479 | 21 | |
| Nevada | 51.7 | 45.2 | 3168 | 5 | |
| Virginia | 52.0 | 45.6 | 3382 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 50.6 | 46.1 | 6490 | 20 | |
| Florida | 50.0 | 46.6 | 5381 | 27 | |
| North Dakota | 47.7 | 45.7 | 1706 | 3 | |
| Montana | 48.7 | 47.4 | 3934 | 3 | |
| Missouri | 49.9 | 48.6 | 3217 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 50.1 | 49.1 | 5582 | 15 | |
| Indiana | 48.6 | 48.7 | 3834 | 11 | |
| Georgia | 47.9 | 49.9 | 3248 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 44.0 | 54.1 | 3328 | 5 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 52.0 | 44.2 | - | 370 | 168 |
Not sure how illuminating this is, but the following map shows the swing in each state as indicated by Electoral-Vote’s poll averages. White indicates either no change from 2004 or a swing to the Republicans, the latter only applying to Massachusetts where John Kerry presumably garnered a handsome home-state vote. The deepest shade of blue indicates a swing of over 20 per cent. Swing is measured by comparing the vote gap between Republican and Democrats.
This chart indicates how polling in various states has shifted since October 13, as measured by my own polling aggregates. John McCain’s furious campaigning in Pennsylvania has yielded a 7.7 per cent narrowing, which while highly impressive is still nowhere near enough. He has also gained ground in Florida (Obama’s lead is down 4.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent), North Carolina (4.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent), Virginia (3.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent) and Missouri (from 2.3 per cent behind to 0.7 per cent ahead). Barack Obama has extended his lead in New Mexico (up 5.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent), Washington (up 3.8 per cent to 15.7 per cent) and Minnesota (up 3.1 per cent to 9.9 per cent). Ignore Maine, where there have only been a few polls.
Finally, many thanks to reader Viggo Pedersen for compiling this list of poll closing times in Australian Eastern Daylight Time.
| State | Close AEDT |
Electoral Votes |
Cumulative EV |
| Vermont | 1100 | 3 | |
| Kentucky | 1100 | 8 | |
| South Carolina | 1100 | 8 | |
| Indiana | 1100 | 11 | |
| Virginia | 1100 | 13 | |
| Georgia | 1100 | 15 | 58 |
| West Virginia | 1130 | 5 | |
| Ohio | 1130 | 20 | 83 |
| Delaware | 1200 | 3 | |
| District Of Columbia | 1200 | 3 | |
| Maine | 1200 | 4 | |
| New Hampshire | 1200 | 4 | |
| Mississippi | 1200 | 6 | |
| Connecticut | 1200 | 7 | |
| Oklahoma | 1200 | 7 | |
| Alabama | 1200 | 9 | |
| Maryland | 1200 | 10 | |
| Missouri | 1200 | 11 | |
| Tennessee | 1200 | 11 | |
| Massachusetts | 1200 | 12 | |
| New Jersey | 1200 | 15 | |
| Illinois | 1200 | 21 | |
| Pennsylvania | 1200 | 21 | |
| Florida | 1200 | 27 | 254 |
| Arkansas | 1230 | 6 | |
| North Carolina | 1230 | 15 | 275 |
| South Dakota | 1300 | 3 | |
| Wyoming | 1300 | 3 | |
| Rhode Island | 1300 | 4 | |
| Nebraska | 1300 | 5 | |
| New Mexico | 1300 | 5 | |
| Kansas | 1300 | 6 | |
| Colorado | 1300 | 9 | |
| Louisiana | 1300 | 9 | |
| Arizona | 1300 | 10 | |
| Minnesota | 1300 | 10 | |
| Wisconsin | 1300 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 1300 | 17 | |
| New York | 1300 | 31 | |
| Texas | 1300 | 34 | 431 |
| Montana | 1400 | 3 | |
| Nevada | 1400 | 5 | |
| Utah | 1400 | 5 | |
| Iowa | 1400 | 7 | 451 |
| North Dakota | 1500 | 3 | |
| Hawaii | 1500 | 4 | |
| Idaho | 1500 | 4 | |
| Oregon | 1500 | 7 | |
| Washington | 1500 | 11 | |
| California | 1500 | 55 | 535 |
| Alaska | 1700 | 3 | 538 |
587 Comments
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I forgot Labour in the UK ‘97 on the exhilaration stakes – that was some evening… but again I don’t like the common denominator here….!
350 – well then forget about it. If we can’t trust the doctors why bother at all with the records…
Re 341,
EXACTLY …… “begin climbing out of the abyss” [ my words earlier ] doesn’t equate to meaning “all America’s problems are going to be solved” [ Glen's words]. But the Democratic part of the equation tomorrow will get a h*** of a lot closer to that mark over 8 years than the Republican part of tomorrow’s equation which is why people are voting for him
I have great hopes that Obama will be an improvement who will turn many things around for the US including moral leadership, foreign policy and action on climate change. However as a realist there are some problems that are beyond him. The US economy will take years to fix because the government can’t spend their way out of a recession as ours can here. There is also a real risk that he will succumb to protectionism because some of the people supporting him are those whose jobs will want protecting. George W Bush has blown the US’s undisputed lead in global power and it won’t be regained in our lifetime IMO. I’ll be happy to be wrong on this, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
I still can’t quite believe tomorrow is election day.
Where the hell did the year go?
Nor is getting busted drink driving while under the influence of cocaine.
Grog @ 348, yes what state CNN calls that puts the winner OVER the 270 mark …..
Jules – thank you maam – imho, if Obi wins Missouri then we’re talking 370+ overall… so, you’re looking pretty good there, J. Its a contest I’m happy to lose on the lowside!! I have one mate where we’ve side-bet on our top 10 predictions for Obi’s final ECV. My most bullish is 396 – this guy is a Lib voter in Aus and fairly right-of-centre and quite analytical, and he’s gone as high as 426 (inc Arizona!!) and most picks in the 380+ region…. dare to dream.
I’m sure we had a couple of McCain tippers, or have they finally thrown in the towel??
MSNBC will call it for Obama at 6pm…lol!
expat, is your other half SA or Aussie or what? Seems from what you’ve been posting that she’s not in on the excitement?
My husband is Aussie through and through. From living in the US for 8 years and knowing me longer than that, he’s developed an appreciation for the US side of politics but his enthusiasm level is only about 30% of what it would be for a federal election whereas being able to vote in both countries, I get geeked up for both elections, last November and now
…..
That having been said, I’m marching off to the US consulate in Perth to resign my US citizenship if McCain pulls this out of the fire …. I would still be just as interested in future US elections, but no longer will I be voting in them if tomorrow ends up in the “red” …….
expat,
Add in Steve Brack’s first win in Victoria
….. we watched that one afar from the USA …. boy was that sweet 
….. (my hubby is a Victorian)
Julie, I’m perfectly happy to share the spoils with Simon in the event we’re both right… I just put forward my prediction since I thought it’s best to give my own prediction, rather than just snipe others from the sidelines after the event!
Only a left winger would say they would renounce citizenship/leave the country/not vote again if somebody they didnt like won an election. That is really really sad IMHO.
How many Liberal backers said after Rudd won they want to leave Australia and renounce citizenship???
expat, my 376 is based upon the RCP no tossup states map adding in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and 1 for Omaha, Nebraska.
“How many Liberal backers said after Rudd won they want to leave Australia and renounce citizenship???”
I personally know of two that said that.
How many did it though?
I think Obama is more likely but not the dead cert that he seems to be seen here. The polling isn’t THAT strong.
thanks Al
….. have noted the change in my excel spreadsheet 
Any word on who DIXVILLE NOTCH voted for in the US Senate Race in NH?
Wow … did not know this … one h*** of a turnaround in 24 months
……
It’s funny how there was much less certainty that Rudd would win last year, yet he was further ahead in the polls than Obama.
Obama to win, but a landslide is unlikely. (I ain’t putting specific numbers on it, don’t know the US political scene well enough.)
A HUGE Spoiler – do NOT click on this link unless you are in Obama’s camp. Do not say I didn’t warn you if you don’t listen …..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/tears-for-obama-photos_n_140582.html#
Lol they are crying seeing Obama and winning raffles to see/meet him.
That is soo sad!
Even Obama backers on here wouldnt cry if they saw him or heard him speak…and nobody would cry listening to McCain speech unless he muffs it up maybe…
Ahh you guys suck!
A week ago it’s “In the bag” “It’ll be a landslide!” “McCain’s gone”.
Now you’re all “He’s still got a chance” “It’ll be close” “Won’t be a landslide”.
This website has a detailed hour by hour breakdown of what polls are closing when and what states to watch for at different times …..
MSNBC will call it for Obama at 6pm EST lol thats a dead cert.
juliem do you have the figures for the NH Senate race from Dixville Notch??
My other half is a South African – had very little interest in Aussie elections, which I understand – and my attempts to gee her up on the US elections are somewhat muted – that she’s struggling along 7mths pregnant might have something to do with that! Brack’s first win was where Kennett suprisingly lost, right… I have to admit that I miss ol Jeff a bit. Hope NSW Libs can bring back a Bruce Baird or someone seemingly competent to give voters there a choice!
Juliem,
Thanks for compiling the EV forecasts.
Median forecast is 338 which implies CO FL IA NV NM OH VA changing color and NC will be the state that just stays ahead of the Obama tide.
We’ll see tomorrow whether there some wisdom in the crowd at pollbludger or a case study in group think.
I hope the new political party in South Africa beats the ANC…it will be good for democracy there.
What about the AL ROKER EFFECT! The idea that fine weather favours Democrats, and rainy weather favours Republicans.
Can someone hook me up with some satellite imagery, and wet bulb / dry bulb stats? Will humidity be factor? Does the FiveThirtyEight modeling take into account U.V. radiation?
Yep great news – democracy needs a choice.
They need a proper 2 party system…good for democracy in SA and good for the people there.
Zuma is the last thing South Africans need.
Let the reactionary stooges of the white man leave the party of liberation and revolution. Who cares.
377, no idea Glen, if you want to know, suggest trying Google for the results but don’t know what search terms you would use ….
Oz,
Trite, crapulous sloganeering!
Good for you.
#386
It’s African politics…
Calling yourself “Democratic” and “Revolutionary” and coming up with slogans is what you do.
ShowsOn,
http://www.weatherchannel.com is the old standby for weather in the US
Sununu seems to have lost Dixville Notch to the Democrat but i have hard figures to back this up.
I am more pissed at that than McCain getting pumped there.
The last thing I want is moderate Republicans losing…..
No nuclear free tree hugging carbon foot prints for Aboriginal gay whales in the ground!
Now there’s a slogan for the ages.
O 297 N MO
Thanks juliem
Glen and others who need a SA update… its a nightmare… the current president would be a more natural fit with the breakaway faction than the rump ANC! We’re not sure if he will be the presidential candidate for the rump ANC at the next election (more likely Zuma) – he’s at least fairly reassuring. The breakaway faction has no chance given the blind allegiance of the masses to the ANC, but in the longer term if they can form a more centrist opposition then would be good for the country – to be viable, will probably have to merge with the Democratic Alliance though (which will be a tough one!). Yes, the ANC needs to be turfed out here… but I can’t see it happening – maybe if Mandela came out for the breakaway it might make a diff, but its unlikely.
Also agree that losing moderate Republicans isn’t a great thing – but not sure I’d put Sununu in that category… the guy in the NorthWest (I think) would be a more sad loss, though (and no, I don’t mean Stevens!)… but boy do i want to see Dole get the crap beat out of her!
Glen, Sununu has been dead meat all year. The Dems will win NH, NM, CO, VA, OR, AK and probably NC. MN seems to have slipped a bit and Coleman is now ahead. I don’t think they will win MS, GA or KY, but upsets do happen. So probably 58, or 57 if they expel Lieberman.
Thanks Expat for the update, much appreciated.
SA still is a 1 party state National Party to ANC.
Yes Dole is a dolt bagging someone saying they are an atheist…not playing the ball means u deserve to lose.
I hope Smith wins in Oregon as well.
The Republicans will really be stuffed if they lose their moderate Senators.
I can’t believe there’s a senator who’s been in since 1959…
Dixville is in; its all over; Democrats win.
Adam:
Yeah the filibuster will kill the more fevered dreams of American progressives
What about the Democratic Alliance?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Alliance_(South_Africa)
Their leader is the Mayor of Cape Town.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Zille
fredn, yeah let’s call the election off. The people have spoken.
I hate to nitpick when someone’s grandmother has just died, but when does Obama think World War I was?
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