The first bi-monthly NSW state Newspoll since Nathan Rees replaced Morris Iemma as Premier shows Labor support plunging to new lows, down four points on both the primary vote (to a record low of 29 per cent) and two-party preferred (to 44 per cent). The Coalition primary vote is up two points to 42 per cent. For all that, Nathan Rees has established a surprising lead over Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell as preferred premier, of 35 per cent to 28 per cent. Rees’ debut satisfaction rating is 39 per cent against 26 per cent dissatisfied, compared with 41 per cent and 30 per cent for O’Farrell.
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84 Comments
Let me be the first to ask where the full figures are. What is the GRN and Nile vote?
Rees eclipses Iemma as worst Premier ever!
Don’t blow your load all at once, GP… the election’s over two years away yet, and Rees is still doing OK for himself by the look of it. Anyway, O’Farrell could get Brogdened by his own party yet… if the Libs stuffed up 2007, they can’t be a dead cert for 2011 just yet.
Seconded for that Greens vote, by the way. Bearing in mind how well they’re done in WA, the ACT, and the bits of the NT where they gave it a shot, and that Vic poll in the other thread, and how very, very unpopular Labor is in NSW, that could be interesting.
As for this:
Here’s a hypothetical which may just happen. Imagine if Labor take such a pummeling that (1) the Lib/Nat coalition forms government, and (2) Labor are a minority within the non-government MP’s, a la Canada 1993. Sounds crazy, but if all the rural independents plus Clover Moore hold their seats, a few more win in Newcastle and Wollongong like in 1988 (or even 2007, Lake Macquarie), and the Greens take Balmain, Marrickville and maybe one or two more, it’s an outside possibility if Labor get really thumped. Who would be opposition leader then… Richard Torbay?
I can’t see how Labor could win the next election from here. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Greens can take this opportunity and turn it into a few seats. They’d want to look at getting to strong candidates into possible seats who could set them up for the future.
Um, Labor would still remain the largest part of the opposition, even if they are a minority of the opposition, so Labor would retain the Leader of the Opposition. Only if they were overtaken by the Greens (still a long long way away) would the position go to someone else.
Yes, it goes to the leader of the party with the most seats who is not in government. It’s hard to imagine a non-government party getting more than Labor.
In the ACT, however, the Leader of the Opposition is elected, so technically it could be anyone who has majority support of the chamber.
Brodgen “Brodgened” himself.
As much as I hate to say it, if you go all sleazy and racist in front of journalists, it is only a matter of time before it catches up to you.
As for NSW Labor, they are working hard to protect seats like Riverstone and Londonderry with all their cancelled public transport projects in the North West. I’m also sure the kind voters of Wollondilly also love being forced to pay for their kids to catch a bus to and from the local high schools (sometimes up to 10km away) as well.
Greens vote must be 13-14.
Balmain, Marrickville and Heffron here we come.
I suppsed I’m biased as an engineer but the latest rail project cancellation in NW Sydney really is indefensible:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/another-rail-plan-axed/2008/11/04/1225560841971.html
This project was not some grandiose Metro – just duplicating a current single track rail line with inadequate capacity. This is basic work needed to make the system function. It has already been planned in combination with other engineering studies of the Sydney rail network. If they can’t find money for this then they clearly have no intention to do anything with public transport. I could understand politically if they had decided to write off the NW Sydney seats and invest in improvements elsewhere, but they are not doing that either.
How do these guys get re-elected?
Another 29 months to go. Yes some hopeful Australian Labor Party barrackers will say, a week is a long time in politics, that Nathan Rees can turn it around, and that the Liberal Party will ‘implode’ or find another way to stuff it up. All of those are (remote) possibilities but I suspect most people now just want their State back. They want to feel proud again of being a citizen of what was once considered the ‘Premier State’ and to feel secure in the knowledge that they are being well governed. Inevitably, they will work out come 26 March 2011 that the only way forward is to change the party in government.
In my opinion, it could get even worse for the ALP (that is, worse than 29% as its primary vote). There is still plenty of time for people to become even more fed up with NSW Labor than they are now, and just as Barry O’Farrell may not be the Liberals leader at the next election so also Rees may be gone. Morrie Iemma was likable and decent even though he was an inept administrator and politician. Albo’s wife could be asked to step up and that might just save Marrickville for the ALP (sorry, Greens’ supporters).
Surely Labor couldn’t change leaders again. I agree Rees looks like an obvious mistake but surely changing leaders again would only damage them.
I also imagine 29% would be very close to the floor of the ALP vote.
In its heart of hearts, I don’t think NSW Labor is really expecting to win in 2011. They just want to staunch the bleeding and avert an electoral wipeout. If Baird starts whiteanting O’Farrell, it will make Labor’s task just that little less difficult.
LTEP @ 11 I agree with you to some extent or to put it another way, I know there is a point where the non-Labor vote in NSW cannot get any higher. I accept that in normal circumstances NSW is a ‘natural’ Labor state. However, my guess is that more of the ALP primary vote, could go to the Greens and with OPV in NSW, the ALP will not be able to claw it all back on a notional 2PP vote (to the extent there is any point in having a 2PP at the next NSW election). I suggested Carmel Tebutt to take the leadership as she might be able to stem some of the leakage of votes to the Greens.
I cannot wait to get rid of this useless government, but the lack of talent in the ALP is staggering atm, as well as the incompetancy of its parliamentary wing. I cannot remember a time when there is so much inept scandals in one year
From Iguana, Iemma blackstabded, Costa’s hole in budget, electricity privatisation, dancing police minister, distress staff, lack of infrastructure unless Carr is on the Mac Bank board.
But we are going to need an effective opposition once Labor is kicked out. And if the Coalition get control of the upper house, it might not be a very good scenario for the Coalition (and Greens might become the defacto opposition)
An ineffective opposition is bad, only slightly worse than ineffective government
Once again, do we know how Newspoll have factored in OPV?
Who thinks that if they were a local council they would have been sacked?
The a Scandal a week NSW Labor’s latest scandal
Reba Meagher said that Joe Tripodi and Della Bosca offered her the Cabermatta seat, 5 hours before its sitting member, Paul Newman was killed. So that Belinda “Do you know who I am” Neal get a Senate seat.
Is there any one in the NSW ALP fit for office
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24616009-5001021,00.html
That’d be JOHN Newman.
It doesn’t help her credibility that she’s revealing this only now after being dumped from the ministry.
The NSW “mini-budget” gets a deserved bagging from Ross Gittins in the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/labor-sham-will-make-it-worse/2008/11/11/1226318651785.html
I simply can’t defend this government. They continually avoid taking the actions that are needed, and now take actions that will make the existing NSW recession worse. I pity Sydney residents.
William
Is there any way to sack a government for gross incompetence, if there is, we reached that point yesterday.
The biggest surprise about the poll is that 29% still would vote Labor. Is that every member of the public sector union.
But they’re getting laid off as well! It’s beyond ridiculous.
I can’t do it, Dovif, if that’s what you’re asking.
The NSW Labor Party should be thrown out in a landslide in 2011 – I’m a Labor-preferencing Democrat but in 2011, I’m exhausting my preference. There surely can’t be anyway BOF could be worse than the present mob…
The Greens’d be better than Liberal and Labor.
You can banish nay sayers to the ethernet and just as easily bring them back, you can also see far into the future predicting the outcomes of the will of the people.
Yet, you cannot do this one simple little thing?
Only 60% of Australian wants the Bali bomber dead in one poll, but 90% of Australian wan the NSW ALP to die in another poll.
If Osama (not Obama) was leading the NSW Lib, they would probably still win
Which, as I’m fond of saying, is pathetic.
Ask NSW voters why they hate the government and then ask them what policies the Libs have to remedy those problems.
I don’t look at a Liberal victory and say “Yay, finally we’re going to have better public transport, schools, hospitals, planning regulations…” because we aren’t. The advantage when the Libs win is that Labor has an opportunity to clean itself out and actually refresh its lineup.
This is a bit of a strange article. Some guy in Kellyville (been there once, never trying that again) has this idea:
This is so broken-headed I’m not sure what to make of it. He’s got a point about safe and marginal seats, but there’s no parallel universe where Labor would do anything any better. Sounds like Stockholm syndrome or something.
There’s a bundle of articles about the ‘mini-budget’ on the SMH site. One of them, about the Harbour Bridge congestion toll and cancellation of the Manly ferry, makes me think the North Shore seats could end up Lib/Green or Lib/Ind, with Labor becoming as irrelevant as the Liberals are in Balmain or Marrickville. Or has that already happened?
Yes.
In North Shore for example, The Greens outpolled Labor 17.9 to 17.8.
In Willoughby, Labor for 15.2% and it was a Lib/Ind race.
Pittwater, Labor again outpolled by The Greens (they only got 7.4%!).
Manly, same thing.
You get the idea.
More to my #28:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/12/2417833.htm?section=justin
Two peas in a pod.
Oz
You are trying to defend the indefensible.
Lets take a look at the failures
Budget
Despite having record revenue from Stamp duties (a tax Carr promised he would scrap) despite getting record revenue from GST, 20% over estimate, NSW is in a $1 billion budget blackhole.
So what had this incompetent State Government done
Transport
Cross Tunnel – a fiasco, being sue by the developer, taxpayers will pay for this projects for years to come
Rail – trains not on time, government maintenance department (25%) causes 50% of faults, government employees ripped off the system for $1 million, was not caught for 10 year. Rail services cancelled, Milemon train disaster. (not enough electricity to run the trains)
Roads – lack of planning and lack of public transport caused major conjestion
Sydney Ferry – horrible maintenance record, record losses, regular cancellations
North West Rail link – promised for 4 election, scrapped after 4 election
E-tickets, because of union opposition, plans scrapped, NSW government is being sued.
Hospitals
Falling apart
Not enough doctors
Dubbo hospital planned by government with consultants was unsafe.
Lack of funding despite higher contribution from the federal government and private health insurance
Regular cases of people giving birth in toilets
Schools
Maintenance 3 years behind schedule
Had to go to federal government to ask for money for software
Water
Salination plant the only infrastructure project undertaken, because Bob Carr wanted to join Macquarie Bank.
Electricity
Could not see generators to save its bacon, despite all other states selling theirs at least 5 years ago
Lack of planning means the Sydney grid won’t supply enough energy for Sydney by 2013
Oz – Labor had spend money like drunken sailors, but they have not spend any of it on Infrastructure, health, education, police or transport. They have run the state bankrupt. It will take 20 years to fix, the problem is so big that it is hard to figure out where to start.
Oz @ 28 The real advantage in changing the party in government is not in giving Labor an opportunity for renewal (that is a second or third order issue), rather it is in bringing a fresh set of perspectives to governance in NSW. A prevailing group think that states the party which has been out of government for 4 terms has no policies and (even if it does) such policies if carried into effect will not remedy deep seated problems in NSW, is lazy and inaccurate shorthand for saying only one side of politics (centre/left) is capable of rectifying the problems. In this respect, it is very interesting to note that a much hackneyed expression on PB threads is ‘born to rule mentality’ and that it is usually directed, with characteristic partisan rancour, at supporters of one side of politics only.
Wtf I’m not defending anyone. All good points and all, but completely misdirected.
Oz the ALP had been given 12 years of good economic time to plan for the future, they had spend the 12 years being incompetant in everything they have touched. The only thing that the NSW ALP had done well is provide comedy relief for people who runs betting on which NSW ALP minister will get kicked out next.
If an audit was down, they will probably find a blackhole somewhere in NSW.
Howard keep saying the following
ALP cannot be trusted on the Economy – ticked
ALP is controlled by the Union – ticked
The more the NSW ALP does, the more it blacken the ALP brand
I think Kevin Rudd’s Xmas wish would be for the NSW ALP to be kicked out of Government
david
without wishing to condone or condemn either side in nsw (btw i have v good friends in both state lib and lab)
1rees is the new broom or get out of jail free card-he is hoping to bring about the “systemic” change but if he fails I agree the labs are out (though not for 4 terms)
2ofarrell has a lot of will to change “systemic” stuff in the libs as well-and with howard gone he has much clearer air in which to operate
3from labs side it is more pragmatic post Carr and most decisions will be about defending the “base” .
4from libs side the reality is to sort out the factional nutters(who would gladly sell everything) and present their “vision” for NSW.
The elector is ultimately the one who will determine which party has changed.
What part of my #34 did you not understand? I dislike the NSW Government more than you. That’s been in pretty much every post I’ve made on this topic. You can stop pretending that I’m defending them, because I’m not.
The NSW Libs aren’t going to fix any of the things that the people of NSW are upset about.
To Gary Bruce from the other thread:
Iemma was the equivalent of Kirner. The problem was Iemma got Debnam who was even more unelectable than him. Had Brogden shut up and behaved himself rather than making it easy for the far right nutjobs in his party to get him we would already have a Liberal government. Good thing too. The Labor Party would have been able to clean out the stable and might have only been looking at 8 years and could even have been pretty competitive after 4 if the Libs were left to carry the can for what’s going on today.
If ever there was an election a party should have wanted to lose for it’s own sake it was the last NSW election. They are now many times worse than Kirner, and thanks to fixed terms we’re going to have another 2 and half years to suffer. The people of NSW want to change government now, and being forced to wait while these clowns cut services and raise taxes as if trying to bring on a recession isn’t going to improve their mood. They are heading for Qld Liberals under Beattie territory. The Greens are going to take seats off them to left and the Libs to the right.
Gusface @ 36 I agree with your 4 points. I add that with 28 and a bit months to go before the election things might get a lot worse for Labor. I now have real doubts that Rees will still be parliamentary leader of the ALP when the election is held. If the ALP are reduced to a cricket team after the election (and that will depend on whether the Greens snare some inner city seats), Labor will struggle to get back in 4 or even 8 years which would be amazing because NSW has been a ‘natural’ Labor state over the last century. Rees himself is from the Left faction. The (once powerful) Right faction have a dearth of talent at the moment so it will take a little while to replenish the stocks. Of course it can and will be done but I don’t expect it will happen anytime soon. In the meantime, and as I said in an earlier post, I think most people in NSW just want their State back. I expect the next 28 months to be very trying and difficult times for the people of NSW.
David
The team rees will take to the next election will have a 60/40 chance to win.The current disconfort is akin to a newborn feeling its way but rees has a mandate from the base to reform.
The team ofarrell takes to the next election are still nonentites and face the battle of the indies in some of the heartland.
The outside chance is the greens having a BOP but aside from getting a seat ot two highly unlikely.
the electors in the west are the key to the election and so far the liberals have not cultivated that area.
In one sense I agree with posters on both sides of this one – NSW Labor doesn’t deserve government, but neither does the opposition show signs of being good enough either. However, I don’t think that is a justification for keeping the status quo. There are two problems in NSW government – incompetence and corruption. Changing government may not eliminate the incompetence. But it will reduce the corruption. The latter thrives in an environment of entrenched power where people believe they can abuse their position without fear of losing it. The solution to that is to turf them out. If the new lot fail too they can be turfed out too.
I’m afraid I have already changed from hopeful to skeptical of Rees. He is either a puppet or more of the same. I see no sign of any change of direction in this mini budget. The real problem is some bloated departments that need to be either cleaned out or forced to do more. That is why they can’t afford to fund hospitals properly or build adequate infrastructure. It is not any lack of planning skill in NSW. The RTA have people who are very competent; they just aren’t allowed to do their job.
I think the failures of NSW labor are actually worse than isted by Dovif. Even when things were going well, it was due to two massive financial free-kicks that were not of their own making – the Sydney olympics and then the boom in house prices. The underlying weakness in recurrent spending has been bad and getting worse for over ten years.
Soc
How would you reform the various depts?
How do you generate revenue from a basically artifical housing market (thank you mr howard-not) that is being dragged back into the real world.
would you slash and burn eg jobcuts holus bolus or
draw a line in the sand and restart from the top down eg trim the senior exexcs
Depends which part of the RTA you’re talking about.
No offense, if
you work there, I know you’re an engineer.
Gusface
They (problematic departments) have all been studied to death and solutions proposed, but the solutions are never implemented by NSW labor. Often the repors don’t even see the light of day. The solutions vary – in some cases it would mean job losses, but in most it would mean making people do more for the same money; in other cases people could be retrained to do something useful. I am not suggesting we throw peopel on the scrap heap. But conversely, I don’t see it as virtuous or an act of social justice for people to be in jobs on up to double the average wage for doing tasks than are either poorly done or even useless or obsolete.
I am most familiar with transport and will give some examples. In the case of Sydney rail, nobody would suggest they should sack train drivers (they need more), but they might retrain a lot of redundant station staff to do maintenance, or drive a few more trains. In fact, more train drivers would actually reduce costs, because the (deliberatly induced and maintained) driver shortage means they all make a fortune in overtime, despite having base salaries higher than a starting doctor. Ben Chifley would turn in his grave.
I have heard of other examples all over government. Meanwhile some front line service providers like nurses, doctors and teachers are worked to the bone with no overtime. Its the inconsistency that makes it so unjust, as well as inefficient.
Oz
I don’t work for the RTA, nor ever have. However I am an engineer and know professional colleagues who do. Many are extremely frustrated by years of bad decisions, often taken contrary to technical advice. Hence I do sympathise with them.
Soc
rees stated that 20% of the SES was gorn.
I believe this is the start of reforms which rees stated had been swept under the carpet- as I said this the premier that nsw needed a while ago
but geez lousie the guy has inherited a shambles so cutting him a bit of slack is fair .
next july we should revisit rees and then deliver a report card on his performance
Well I hope so Gus, but the reforms need to apply to more than just the SES.
Soc
on 702 he was nailed a few times by glover but held his ground-this bodes well in terms of making the hard decisions.
he indicated that institutional rot and rorts were high on the hitlist and that a lot had to be done.
perhaps the step by step approach starting from the top is the most prudent -regardless of who was running the show
This has gotten a bit obscene.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/yoursay/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/sack_the_nsw_government/
The Daily Telegraph is actually hosting a petition to have the Government sacked.
Oh Dear, I think the Liberal National Party restaurant argument fiasco just got worse.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24644885-952,00.html
#40
60/40 is a bit optimistic. 10/90 is more like it. I think people have decided the government has to go and not much can change that. We saw it with Howard last year; once voters made up their minds nothing he did could sway them back. Having a fresh face in Rees might stave off a landslide, but it’s hard to see people suddenly deciding they want yet another four years of Labor.
I think with O’Farrell, Chris Hartcher, Greg Smith, Mike Baird, Pru Goward, plus a few others there’s at least something approaching competence in the Opposition ranks. Not sure if they’d make a great government but they have enough to convince the public they won’t stuff it up too much. As for O’Farrell not releasing detailed policy, he’s no worse than any other small-target Opposition. The government is on its last legs and people are itching to boot them out- why would an opposition want to stick its head up now?
“I think with O’Farrell, Chris Hartcher, Greg Smith, Mike Baird, Pru Goward, plus a few others there’s at least something approaching competence in the Opposition ranks. Not sure if they’d make a great government but they have enough to convince the public they won’t stuff it up too much.”
That team is a dream team if you compare them with the we did stuffed it up too much, sorry about everything bunch of losers including Nathan (it was not my fault even through I work for the treasurer and was in parliament for most of it) Reese, Eric Roozendaal, Frank Sartor, Costa, the dancing in undies police minister and Campbell
Gusface I have to agree with MDMConnell’s post @ 52. I would add Gladys Berejiklian to the list of competent performers in the Opposition (I do not know what Socrates meant @ Post 41).
Also, I am not sure why you say the electors in the west are so significant to Labor’s re-election prospects. There are Western Sydney seats (although not seats like Camden), plus a few seats in the Illawarra and Newcastle areas, that may form the basis of a ‘cricket team’ for Labor in Opposition, and especially if the Greens pinch some inner city seats; however, a 29% primary vote for the ALP (if sustained) puts it in an extremely difficult position to find enough seats to form a government after the next election.
dovif,
Exactly, which is why I find the comments critical of the Opposition’s talent and direction a bit strange. In this situation, all the Opposition frontbenchers have to do is appear less hopeless than the current bunch, and people will give them a go.
Hardly anyone is doubting they’re going to win. Having “talent” to win an election is one thing, actually getting to State to any decent level of governance is another. Something the Libs have shown no indication that they’re willing to do/up for.
Oz @ 56 Your view, affected as it may be by a ‘born to rule mentality’, infers that only one side of politics (and it is not centre/right), is capable of providing ‘any decent level of governance’ in NSW. You may be welcome to enjoy your opinion as you see fit but (frankly) such opinion reflects a perspective without any substance.
I don’t think either “side” has the people, skills or policies required to give NSW a decent level of services.
No, what’s without substance are the Coalition policies. You tell me what Barry O’Pharell has said he will do to clean up NSW’s planning laws, fix the hospitals, schools and public transport and curb alcohol related violence. He had the opportunity to outline his policy agenda to get NSW out of the “quagmire” he’s so quick to call it during his budget reply and he didn’t mention a single thing. He just carped on about the exact same rubbish as Rees – maintaining a Triple A credit rating.
The onus is on the Coalition to prove they have the policies to repair the state.
Oz (Post 58) I think MDMConnell answered that question earlier @ Post 52, second paragraph. We really do not know whether an Opposition’s policies have any substance until they are in government with the authority and resources to implement them. Unfortunately for the Liberal Party in NSW that opportunity to carry into effect their policies, does not arise until after 26 March 2011. In the meantime, you can leave it to the electors to determine which “side” has policies with a fair chance of providing ‘a decent level of governance’ in NSW.
You miss the point. They have no policies to implement. You should answer my above question if you seek to demonstrate otherwise.
Oz If I have ‘miss(ed) the point’, then your earlier question must have been rhetorical. The parties take policies to an election and the voters decide who gets an opportunity to implement them after the election.
Oz,
If this was a week before the election and we still had no substance, then sure I’d agree with you. But it’s still two years away. There’s nothing outrageous in what O’Farrell is doing, he’s just following the typical small-target strategy that all Oppositions use. What benefit is it to him to release detailed policy now? If it’s good, Rees will steal it, and if it’s bad the Libs will cop a pounding in the media. Either way, the focus shifts off Labor’s problems.
MDM
au contraire
Rudd was release a policy a week at one stage.
What the people of NSW need to see is what the alternative is.
and currently all people see is nothing,zero,etc
If you are so sure the odds are 10/90 then releasing policies is going to have minimal impact or am I missing something here
Gusface at 40 “The current discomfort is akin to a newborn feeling its way but rees has a mandate from the base to reform.”
The only true “mandate” Rees has is from the voters of Toongabbie, to be their member for the next 28 months. The “mandate” Rees has been given by Sussex St is from public sector unions to avoid tough decisions that affect their members and from Eddie and Joe to give them more power. Not a recipe for long term political success.
Gusface at 47 “But geez lousie the guy has inherited a shambles so cutting him a bit of slack is fair.”
This sounds like the old Beattie/Howard argument – things are not going great, frankly, we couldn’t organise a lamington drive, but hey, who do you trust to fix them up? Rees doesn’t have the residual goodwill, charisma or the political skills to pull that one off. But, yes, I think you’ve correctly captured the central message of the Rees premiership.
Oz at 58 “The onus is on the Coalition to prove they have the policies to repair the state.”
This is RICH 28 months out from the election. Any politician or even interested observer would know this trick, and so early in the political cycle. To put it bluntly, there are no safe assumptions, on a policy or financial basis, that the Coalition could work with, which the current NSW Government, in that amount of time, could not completely destroy.
Would it be too much to suggest that perhaps the incumbent government should have a crack at “policies to repair the state”? It’s not like the election is tomorrow.
“If you are so sure the odds are 10/90 then releasing policies is going to have minimal impact or am I missing something here”
Actually I do tend to agree that nothing either side does will change things. It does seem the voters’ minds are made up, and Labor will find it very difficult to win them back.
oz
you completely missed the point, did federal labor have any strategy for anything 3 years ago – No, because they are not the ruling party, and any policy released 2 years before the election is likely to be redundant by the election time
For all we know, with this inept government, in two years, NSW would be broke, there is no public school, public hospital, or public transport, because these imbliciles aka NSW Labor have done nothing for 12 years
Then it is time for the Liberal government to come in to fix up another Labor mess
Looking back at the last NSW election, some of Debnam’s policy was not bad. Like cutting waste in the public service. Which has been forced on this incompetant govenment now.
“Actually I do tend to agree that nothing either side does will change things.”
I never said that-what I said was if you are so certain its 10/90 then releasing ANY policy would not matter
or is it the case that the state liberals have NO policies to release
“I never said that-what I said was if you are so certain its 10/90 then releasing ANY policy would not matter”
Nothing is likely to change the fact that Labor will lose in 2011, including whether the Liberal party releases detailed policies. I think the government is in such a hole that the Liberals could run an entirely negative campaign, say nothing about their own policies, and win simply because they’re not Labor. Obviously, if they wanted a stronger mandate than “you can’t be worse than the other mob”, they wouldn’t be that dumb.
“or is it the case that the state liberals have NO policies to release”
I have no idea, but if they do I expect they’ll follow the usual opposition tactic of releasing them closer to the election for maximum impact. The general public aren’t political junkies like us- any policy released today would be long forgotten by 2011. I also think than in slow economic times it’s not smart to make big promises that you might end up being unable to fund. Humiliating policy backflips or budget holes on the eve of an election are not a good look.
Gusface
In every election campaign, there is a 4 weeks period, where the parties release what they will do for the next 4 years.
That is when policies will be released. with the NSW ALP doing such a fine job making a mess of everything they touch, why do the opposition need to release anything, and we do not know what mess these NSW ALP will leave, when they are kicked out. 4 weeks ago Costa said he did not even know he had a deficit.
The opposition does not do a budget, that is the work of this group of corrupt incompetant lazy imbeciles.
MDM
sorry for getting back to your post straight away;
I agree taht labor will take a hit-but remember 28 mths is a hell of a long time
The labor brand is tarnished somewhat BUT the authors have mainly left the scene and a process of rejuvenation is underway.The changes will be incremental and if rees holds his nerve ,the electorate will see what changes have happened and vote accordingly.
“including whether the Liberal party releases detailed policies”
now there you go-this is exactly why the liberals will not win.Under bomber and brylcrean labor was poised for victory but had no real distinction from a “hated” liberal admin still with the figurehead in place.Policy DEARTH is political death and no matter how reviled etc the party in power is unless a believable alternative is presented they are normally returned.
Before you mentioned Brogden who had both the charisma and the policies , I feel unfortunately ofarrel has neither.
“Humiliating policy backflips or budget holes on the eve of an election are not a good look”
Im not sure contextually what you mean here?
Guess where the policies for the future are:-
http://nsw.greens.org.au/policies
Decided by the members of the Greens, not by the press, special interest groups, lobbyists,
corporations, multinationals, last weeks of the campaign, in secret, or wiegee boards.
Please LIB/LAB Party steal some, no charge no copy right.
HAH you’re all hypocrites and full of crap.
“Liberals are going to fix the state”
“Why?”
“They have the people to do it”
“What policies have those people come up with”
“Er, there’s no election yet!”
So if you have no idea what their policies and their plans to fix the state are, how on earth can you support them?
Oz
Everyone in NSW have a good idea what the ALP is doing about the state, and that is to waste money, to increase tax, to not provide infrastructure and not provide service. The cannot manage the economy, they cannot provide service
Why don’t you walk around Sydney to see the mood, in my office of 125 people, there will not be 1 single person who will vote labor at the next election, including the person who handed out HTV card for Iemma at the last election, he is in Marrickville and he and everyone of his family will be voting for the Green. NSW ALP will be in opposition for the next 20 years in NSW
It is less a vote for the Lib than a vote against a group of corrupt incompetants who won’t get back in as long as this generation remember their incompetancy
“Im not sure contextually what you mean here?”
Suppose O’Farrell did what you demanded and came out tomorrow with a big policy on transport- we’ll build the metros, NW rail link, M4 East, etc. Then the economic times get tighter and by the 2010-11 budget the money isn’t there. So he then has to front the cameras a few months before the election, and either backflip or admit his policies would put the budget billions in deficit. He’d be humiliated, and people would conclude he’s no better than Labor.
It’s much smarter politically to wait until closer to the election, when you know how much money is there, before releasing detailed policies and costings. That’s what oppositions normally do, and I have no problem with this. Governments often do the same thing with their election policies, and I have no problem with that either. Maybe because I’m not particularly wedded to either party, or maybe I’m just a cynic, but I don’t see why you find the small-target strategy so objectionable.
Good on him, because The Greens, unlike the Coalition, have a detailed set of policies to make NSW a state worth living in.
You can’t even explain why you want the Libs in power, yet you defend and support them violently. I ask you what they would do to fix the state and you imply that I’m some kind of Labor barracker who can’t see the ills of the state. I’ve pointed out the State government’s woes more than you.
#71
I certainly agree that we’re going to see a boost in the Greens vote from unhappy Labor people, unless Rees can work a miracle. Ironically, it will probably lead to an increase in the number of Liberal MP’s under OPV.
Could Rees overturn OPV and re-institute compulsory preferences? It would be a blantantly cynical and partisan move but it could save a few Labor MPs in seats like Coogee or Drummoyne.
It’s actually not a bad idea politically, although I suspect even with compulsory preferential Labor would lose in NSW big time.
Oz
The Liberals will do what the Liberals do everytime Labor stuffs up an economy
for example
Victoria Caine/Kernot
WA: WA Inc
SA:
NSW:
Federally: Hawke and Keating
The Liberals has been fixing up Labors mess so often, that I have no doubt they will do a better job than the useless incompetant ALP
Did you here about the single carriage train propose by Campbell. Lets provide services to less people and take the state back to the 50s, we have done it to the budget already
“Victoria Caine/Kernot”
Cain/Kirner
I’m inclined to give the Feds more of a pass than I am some of the state governments. Certainly nobody would seriously argue Hawke and Keating were remotely as bad as Kirner or Brian Burke.
Although I agree the train proposal is dumb. Billions of dollars to reduce dwell times at stations by what..a few seconds?
So based on your delusion that Hawke and Keating somehow destroyed Australia you think the Liberals in NSW are magically going to fix the state?
Hopeless.
Oz Hopeless would be much better than the NSW ALP
Paul Keating: “Recession we had to have”
Kevin Rudd: Lack of spending at the start of last recession, prolonged the recession
Even Kevin Rudd agreed that Keating was at fault for not spending enough to cushion the last recession.
It was not a dilusion for Kevin Rudd, maybe you are the one the delusional one
Oz: in my dreams the ALP are the greatest, they fixed everthing, the trains are on time, people aren’t dying in hosipital, teachers are happy.
I will stop wasting time arguing with idiots who have no argument except, I will always vote for the ALP. People need to start living in the real world. I stopped believing the ALP cares about the workers a long time ago, if they do, why do taxes go up and people become unemployed. The ALP cares about 1 thing only Power and the unions who gives them power
1998
Test only
Another test – sorry William…