10.48pm. Oregon Senate race still close: Republican incumbent Gordon Smith leads Democrat Jeff Merkley 47.7 per cent to 46.7 per cent with 74 per cent of precincts reporting. Coleman now leads Franken by 676 votes (0.02 per cent) with 99.9 per cent reporting.
9.25pm. An extra 0.3 per cent of precincts in Minnesota have widened Coleman’s lead to 2591.
8.45pm. Norm Coleman back ahead of Franken in Minnesota – by 490 votes, with 98.7 per cent reporting.
7.54pm. Al Franken seizes a late lead for the Minnesota Senate (188,073 to 185,786) with 98 per cent reporting.
7.45pm. All precincts reporting from Missouri, and McCain leads 1,442,577 to 1,436,724. Possum writes in comments that there are not enough contested votes to cover the gap.
6.29pm. MSNBC calls Indiana for Obama. Only Missouri and North Carolina still outstanding.
6.26pm. Missouri has gone right back down to the wire with 0.7 per cent still to report: McCain 1,426,779, Obama 1,426,381.
6.06pm. With all precincts reporting, Obama leads in North Carolina by 12,160 votes out of over 4.2 million (0.2 per cent cent).
5.57pm. Earlier chat suggested Republican Senator Ted Stevens was dead meat in Alaska, but he leads 49.4-45.4 with 37 per cent reporting. Partial counts can be misleading though.
5.50pm. Back to lineball in Minnesota Senate. Analyst on Fox News says outstanding precincts are likely to favour Republican incumbent Norm Coleman over Al Franken.
5.16pm. McCain hanging on to his slender lead in Missouri, which is looming as my only wrong call.
5.11pm. McCain now ahead in Montana.
5.00pm. Al Franken continuing to fade in Minnesota Senate – probably gone now.
4.46pm. Obama’s lead in Montana rapidly evaporating as the count proceeds to 51 per cent.
4.36pm. Ohio still quite tight: Obama leads 50.0-48.4 with 72 per cent reporting.
4.31pm. Oregon Senate race has tightened up considerably: within 1 per cent now.
4.11pm. My reading of the Senate: Democrats to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska (no actual votes yet from the latter) – or eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota, where he trails by 0.8 per cent with 53 per cent counted.
4.09pm. Norm Coleman now leads Al Franken by 0.8 per cent for Minnesota Senate.
4.07pm. Obama now with a relatively handy 0.6 per cent lead in North Carolina.
3.55pm. Obama back in front in North Carolina, but not going to win Missouri. I’ve only just noticed he’s looking a surprise winner in Montana, although with only 24 per cent counted.
3.32pm. Correct me if I’m wrong here somebody, but the Democrats stand to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska – eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota.
3.17pm. McCain concedes defeat.
3.14pm. Close as close can be between Norm Coleman and Al Franken for Minnesota Senate.
3.10pm. Fox reports Roger Wicker holds Mississippi Senate seat for the Republicans, ending the chances of a Democrat supermajority.
2.59pm. CNN calls the election for Obama.
2.58pm. Obama takes the lead in Indiana.
2.54pm. McCain strengthening in North Carolina and Missouri.
2.51pm. Fox reports Virginia went 60-39 to McCain among white voters, but 92-8 among black voters.
2.42pm. McCain’s lead has vanished in Missouri: now 49.4-49.3.
2.41pm. Franken in fact leads Republican incumbent Norm Coleman 43-40.
2.40pm. Fox calls Virginia for Obama. Al Franken reportedly looking good for Minnesota Senate.
2.37pm. Obama leads in New Mexico 50.1-48.7 with less than half of dominant Bernalillo County reporting, where Obama is leading 57.3-41.5.
2.33pm. Crikey blog commenter Stuart: “Wilson and Franklin in North Carolina unreported. Wilson =44000 people total, 47% black. Franklin 2000 in total people 95% white. Looking good for O.”
2.32pm. McCain now narrowly ahead in North Carolina.
2.20pm. McCain leads by 12,839 in Indiana, but extrapolating unreported precincts from Lake County suggests Obama stands to gain over 22,000 votes.
2.18pm. Still tight in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, but Obama has a handy lead in each case with most precincts reporting. North Carolina his weakest of the three.
2.16pm. Missouri bouncing around the place, but McCain’s lead currently at 2.6 per cent.
2.12pm. McCain’s lead in Missouri reflating.
2.04pm. McCain’s lead in Missouri is narrowing.
2.01pm. Obama narrowly ahead in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia (in ascending order of narrowness).
1.59pm. Fox calls Iowa for Obama.
1.58pm. Obama takes the lead in Virginia.
1.50pm. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight calls the election for Obama.
1.47pm. CNN calls New Mexico for Obama.
1.33pm. Gap continues to close in Virginia, Obama now only 0.5 per cent behind.
1.25pm. McCain fairly well ahead in Missouri, but nobody’s calling it yet.
1.21pm. Discussion of Indiana on Fox: “central city plus rich suburbs” emerging as the “Obama alliance”, but rural areas holding relatively well for McCain.
1.17pm. Fox calls Ohio for Obama.
1.09pm. Nate Silver: “MSNBC and Fox call Georgia for McCain.”
1.00pm. Fox calls North Dakota for McCain.
12.46pm. Nate Silver on Virginia: “Obama is outperforming Kerry by a 12-15 point net in the Eastern half of the Virginia. In the Western half, he’s not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties. I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close.”
12.28pm. Heavily populated Florida counties Orange and Polk are swinging double digits to Obama, blowing away those weaker rural results I was mentioning earlier.
12.12pm. Possum says: “PA has gone Dem, VA has gone Dem – election over”. Adam Carr says: “It’s true that the FL panhandle hasn’t reported yet, but Obama is leading in Orlando and St Petersburg, which are GOP towns. You’d think he’ll win FL from here. Note also Obama’s 75% in Broward – the Jews stuck with Obama despite Lieberman’s defection.”
12.08pm. Discussing Virginia on CNN, confirming the impression that early reporting precincts are rural and we haven’t seen any black areas in the big cities come in. I’m only seeing slight swings to the Democrats in the rural areas.
11.53am. Swings I’m seeing in Florida are also below par: 4.0 per cent in Lake, 2.4 per cent in Manatee, 4.1 per cent in Pinellas. He needs 5.0 per cent.
11.45am. Another substantially reporting Virginia county, Augusta, swinging inadequately to Obama by 5.7 per cent. However, the cities and DC outskirts might tell a different story.
11.37am. Culpeper and Amherst counties in Viriginia swinging 5.1 and 1.8 per cent, against required swing of 8.3 per cent.
11.33am. Manatee County in Florida swinging 2.4 per cent to Democrat – statewide margin is 5.0 per cent.
11.26am. Double digit swings in more counties in Indiana (Clinton, Fayette), but Obama needs 20 per cent across the state.
11.21am. Chesterfield County in Virginia swings 8.9 per cent to Democrat with 94 per cent reporting – the statewide margin in 2004 was 8.2 per cent.
11.09am. Reasonably consistent swings in rural counties in Indiana of around 10 per cent – good, but well short of what Obama would need to win the state if consistent.
10.58am. Swing in Steuben County, Indiana with 68 per cent of precincts reporting is 8.9 per cent: well short of the 20 per cent needed to win the state.
10.52am. 69 per cent of precincts reporting in Vigo County, Indiana – Obama leads by 16 per cent. Bush carried it by 6.4 per cent in 2004 (I’ll be double-posting here on special occasions).
10am. Further efforts will be concentrated above.
4am AEDT. Rain and gusty winds in North Carolina, with rain extending into Virginia. Storms through the north-west, bringing snow to Nevada and Colorado. Weather otherwise very good: fine and warm in Florida and throughout the south, fine and mild through the north-east to the mid-west. You’ll next hear from me at around 9.30am AEDT.
| Obama | McCain | Sample | D-EV | R-EV | |
| Washington | 56.4 | 39.6 | 3322 | 11 | |
| Maine | 56.5 | 40.5 | 2185 | 4 | |
| Minnesota | 56.0 | 41.9 | 3270 | 10 | |
| Michigan | 56.3 | 42.3 | 3232 | 17 | |
| New Mexico | 57.0 | 43.2 | 3305 | 5 | |
| New Hampshire | 54.9 | 41.9 | 3900 | 4 | |
| Iowa | 54.1 | 41.6 | 3052 | 7 | |
| Wisconsin | 53.3 | 42.3 | 3003 | 10 | |
| Colorado | 54.8 | 44.7 | 3248 | 9 | |
| Pennsylvania | 53.0 | 43.3 | 5479 | 21 | |
| Nevada | 51.6 | 45.4 | 3168 | 5 | |
| Virginia | 51.9 | 45.8 | 3382 | 13 | |
| Ohio | 50.5 | 46.3 | 6490 | 20 | |
| Florida | 49.9 | 46.8 | 5381 | 27 | |
| North Dakota | 47.6 | 45.9 | 1706 | 3 | |
| Montana | 48.6 | 47.6 | 3934 | 3 | |
| Missouri | 49.8 | 48.8 | 3217 | 11 | |
| North Carolina | 50.0 | 49.3 | 5582 | 15 | |
| Indiana | 48.5 | 48.9 | 3834 | 11 | |
| Georgia | 47.8 | 50.1 | 3248 | 15 | |
| West Virginia | 43.9 | 54.3 | 3328 | 5 | |
| Others | - | - | - | 175 | 137 |
| RCP/Total | 51.9 | 44.4 | - | 370 | 168 |
1,508 Comments
I don’t think the weather is bad enough to save McCain
For those of us watching streaming tv on our computers, here’s the link to live coverage on MSNBC. When reporting of results starts later, reporting will be Keith Olbermann, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow, Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd et.al, which would be my “A Team”, especially Maddow.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22887506#22887506
Does not appear to be live MSNBC at the moment.
Some early morning inspiration, particularly for my sister American, Julie, from Martin Luther King:
“In the End, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.”
No silence from our friends in here!
Going back to check out live blogs etc. at http://www.HuffingtonPost.com and http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com.
cya
jjulian do you have links to any of the Republican ones? Might be good for a laugh. Sometimes they’re fun to read so you can marvel at the way they think (almost like aliens)
Intrade is Obama at 92.7, up 1.4 from yesterday, and yes on MO at 59% to predict the Electoral Vote will be 364. Much higher EV guesstimate than mine.
Itep,
To be honest, it never entered my mine. Sorry I can’t be more “fair and balanced”. Oh, wait, how about FoxNews—they might have a website.
mind—sheesh!
Yep, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/
I was thinking more of political blogs, that’s where the real loons show up. Or are they unlikely to do live blogging?
jj, here now, I’ve been lost on other websites
…… also have the kids getting up shortly, I’m not doing TV at all until after I get them off to school as I promised them I wouldn’t interrupt their cartoons this morning …..
jj, I registered on the tpm site so I could comment on their live blog, comment with a time date stamp of 2pm on the blog …..
you will like this one if you didn’t see it on the other thread (didn’t realize for awhile that this thread was open now)
‘Onya Julie! That’s neato burrito.
Itep,
Red nation or something like that is what u want, I surmise.
Red Nation? As in communism?
Nice to see this coalition breaking up today
….
http://tinyurl.com/56uhsd
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com final prediction from Nate Silver is 353 EV, but NC only at 63%, so that would subtract 15 if it goes over to the dark side of the Force. His final probability of an Obama win is 99% with estimated margin of victory at 6%. I hope it is at or above Rudd’s 5.4% 2PP over Howard.
Itep and Julie: LOL for both of you!
Crikey! Red Nation is a native american website. I stuffed that one up.
http://www.princetonelection.edu/ Sam Wang’s final is Obama 352 with a Meta-margin of 6.28%.
jj, once the first returns are in, I will be in and out from the keyboard, mostly out. Since my tv and computer aren’t within visual distance of each other …. I will be making mad dashes back and forth, lightning raids as it were to the desktop computer …. rotten timing for the laptop to have crashed on Saturday morning
….. I can hear the TV from where I am at present (if it were on) but I can’t see it.
jj, will try again, wanted to remind you that I wouldn’t be on live with blogging here (once returns start coming in) but only quick dashes to the computer as my laptop died last Saturday. I can hear the TV from where I am at the moment but I can’t “see it”. So if I go silent at times, I haven’t disappeared …. { trying again as a previous attempt at this message with different words was caught up in the spam filter }
My liveblogging thread is open now, I’ve also put up a results prediction thread, so if you wanna get in on it before the first exit polls come out in just under 2 1/2 hours, do it now. And people might be interested in this hour-by-hour guide to reading the returns from Slate: http://www.slate.com/id/2203657
to borrow one of your words, jj, jeepers …. this is my 3rd try at this message …..
I will be watching TV once 10am rolls around and won’t be at the computer much. The only computer I have today is my desktop and it is not in the same room as the television.
{William cancel the other two attempts at this message please thanks}
http://www.pollster.com Mark Blumenthal’s perhaps final prediction is Tossups 105, Obama 291, McCain 142. The non-tossups for Obama are Kerry’s plus IA, NM, CO, NV and VA.
Good luck, Julie.
I won’t be in here much after 10 either due to the same location problem. Again, mucho thanks for all the time spent setting up the EV contest. I hope yours is a whole lot closer to the result than mine
did you see the live countscreen on the main page of theTPM website?
…. that will keep me in touch when I’m in this room 
…..
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/
Yep, Julie, been there and will be catching Josh Marshall often as I do the Grand Tour around my favourite sites. :>)
do either of you, ltep or jj, know what this little piece is called?
“little piece” = the connector for 2 ends of telephone “cord” { that thing that goes into the phone jack at the wall on one end and your phone on the other end }.
I have 2 sections of it and I want to make my phone reach from point a to point b. Neither piece is long enough on its own but together they will work. I know that you can purchase a piece (its a little squarish block about the size of an egg or even smaller) that connects two of those “clippie” ends one on each side, my husband has purchased them before but I dont’ have any in the house at the moment.
I just don’t know what they are called and I’m wondering if Coles would have it? I’m trying to stretch my phone into the room with the TV. Else, I will be out of the TV room when talking to US relatives today …..
ltep,
If you’re looking for Republican blogs; I’d look no further than RedState.com.
Juliem @ 28
I don’t know about Coles. My first shot would be Dick Smith’s. I suggest you give them a call before you go.
another voting experience story from MD this time …
thanks boer war …. there’s a DS in Tuggeranong and I can get there in about 15 minutes, door to door including parking. If I drop my kids off at school at 8:30 I ought to be able to get there and back before 10am
…..
28
juliem, it is called a RJ-11.
What’s the best site for realtime updates (automatically refreshing)?
I’m using http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/feature/splash/1,9199,5018332,00.html at the moment and leaving it in the background, but I don’t know if it automatically updates itself. Looks pretty cool though.
A paper looking at the possible implications from the results of the first voting states:
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/electionnight.pdf
The figures at the end (particuarly Figure 2) are quite informative.
Sorry, guys, lost the link to this, but it comes from a US site:
‘As she waited for her beverages, a local reporter asked the governor how she envisions her role in national politics if McCain loses the election. Palin did not hesitate to muse about a future that might not include being vice president come January.
“You know, if there is a role in national politics it won’t be so much partisan,” she said. “My efforts have always been here in the state of Alaska to get everybody to unite and work together and progress this state.”
“It would certainly be a uniter type of role,” she added.
Asked if she had any regrets about the campaign, Palin bemoaned “the state of journalism today.”
“The blogosphere, the two, three hour news cycles, where just too much is reported based on gossip and innuendo and things taken out of context,” she explained, adding that she’d like to help improve the profession because she has “great respect for the world of journalism.”
OK, so, post losing the election, the Palin Strategy combines ‘The Great Uniter’ with ‘It was the fault of the media.’ It would be interesting to see how she thinks she is going to ‘improve the profession.’
“My efforts have always been here in the state of Alaska to get everybody to unite and work together and progress this state.”
That is apart from gay people, pro-choice, liberals etc. etc.
I see conservative blogs seem to be solely obsessed with ‘voter fraud’. Where does this insane paranoia come from?
‘Man of the Year’ (2006)…classical political flick and takes the pun out of both sides.
Just hours to go before we have a….
President Barack Obama
or
President John McCain
ltep – the fact that voting machines are already malfunctioning?
President John McCain? Oh Glen, at least you’re good for a laugh.
Thanks for the blog Al.
So far I love the blog “McCain touts “alien” endorsement” and this line in their open thread: “Tell us about any irregularities. Give us your best “why the polls are wrong” explanation.”
I think we can all feel sorry for this baby: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wMi6lvECISc/SRBsJyue93I/AAAAAAAAA-U/iuob3i3vWeY/s1600-h/1025081123a-731243.jpg
bob1234, I don’t see how hard it can be to create a voting machine. Couldn’t it be done similar to an ATM?
Bob1234 i did put Obama on top…
ltep, well Diebold do make voting machines and ATMs, so yeah it shouldn’t be that hard.
We could go in to the whole Republican/Diebold story, but I really can’t be bothered. Google it for any interested.
Glen @ 38
That would be President-elect Obama or President-elect McCain?
I suspect they actually get the job in January. But here is a serious question: Given the number of armed fruitcakes in the US, and given the state of McCain’s health, what happens if the president-elect dies before taking up the job?
Heres a web-site worth a look at for the vote coun – state by state, county by county!
http://politicalwire.com/aggregator/electionresults.html
Hi gang, what a wonderful day. Obama winning in a MASSIVE LANDSLIDE. All the so called experts still in the river in Egypt. DE NILE.
What a wonderful day. YES! YES! YES!
Hi Glen, still living in the past as usual.
President-elect Sarah Palin
Obama 400 plus seats in the house 60 seats plus in the senate. Isn’t it a great day!
Ok Glen I actually honestly laughed at that. Good one.
This is the death of Reaganomics, Thatcherism and Johnny Who?
Such a great day for freedom and democracy. Just great to see the A… End of George Bush.
So where are the Three Amigos, those giants of political wisdom?
Ron Paul’s going to win through write-in.
Hi Oz.
lol i laughed real hard at that one Oz lol!
bob
As someone in the US said, how come Diebold’s ATMs never overpay you when you get cash but they can’t make a voting machine?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=1aBaX9GPSaQ
“As someone in the US said, how come Diebold’s ATMs never overpay you”
All ATMs of all types have malfunctions which can underpay and overpay.
One Nation Under a Groove, gettin’ down just for the funk of it…
Most prediction sites are saying 353. I hope Obama gets to 359, because that’s my official landslide benchmark.
I’ve had one underpay, but never over pay!
Apparently it had run out of $20 notes mid-way through the transaction.
I just don’t understand how these systems couldn’t have been developed years ago and fully bug tested. Surely it’s not that hard. Press one button and then submit. I’d imagine even a basic programmer could manage it.
Exit poll predictions?
I think OBama 50 – McCain 45.
Does anyone know what the exit polls are?
Do you mean how they are done?
In answer to a question above: if the winning candidate dies between polling day and when the Electoral College meets in January, the EC will simply elect someone else – EC members are not legally bound to vote for any candidate. They would probably elect the VP candidate, but not necessarily. If the President-designate dies between the sitting of the EC and the inauguration, the VP-designate will be sworn in for the full term. In 1872 Horace Greeley, the defeated Dem candidate, died soon after the election. The Dem members of the EC voted for Thomas Hendricks, his VP candidate.
No – the numbers.
Classic
(Homer enters voting booth)
Homer: Oooh, one of those electronic voting dealies!
(Homer touches the box for Obama)
Machine: Beep! One vote for McCain. Thank you.
Homer: Hee, hee, hee. Nooo, I want to vote for Obama.
Machine: Beep! Two votes for McCain.
Homer: Huh!? Come on, it’s time for a change.
Machine: Beep! Three votes for McCain.
Homer: No, No, No!
Machine: Beep, Beep, Beep! Six votes for President McCain.
Homer: Hey, I only meant one of those votes for McCain…Wait a minute, this machine is rigged!
(Here the machine opens up, tries to suck Homer inside)
Must…tell…President…McCain…
This doesn’t happen in America. Maybe Ohio, but not in America!
Aargh! Aargh!
(Machine swallows Homer, then spits him out.)
http://www.wvpubcast.org/newsarticle.aspx?id=5588
From new episode of the Simpsons
The Simpsons hasn’t been funny for a long time.
Well there is civilised life in Brisbane. There is a group of Democrats Abroad, including a former philosophy lecturer I know of (Roger Lamb) meeting at a Brisbane pub to watch the election. What an excellent idea
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/brisbane-obama-supporters-confident/2008/11/04/1225560793685.html
Adam @ 59
Thank you. It is a scary thought.
According to Drudge Report exit polls to be released at 5:15 PM ET.
In other words very soon.
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Does anybody know a link to the ‘Jeremia Wright’ ads in Pennsylvania?
Ok, I travelling well today
…..
60 minutes RT
1. kids to school – check
2. ATM – check
3. Gloria Jeans coffee – check
4. bakery – sugar and chocolate – check
5. Dick Smith’s for the part I need for my phone to extend it to the next room – check
6. post office to post 3 ebay auctions outbound – check
7. phone piece plugged in and working – check
8. wrote down phone numbers for parents and brother so I don’t have to worry about remembering them under the influence this afternoon – check
9. catching up on PB here before 10am – check
10. Obama win – priceless
Voting machines election one of their own President:
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/voting_machines_elect_one_of
Fox is reporting that exit polls show that 10 percent of all voters are new voters. According to CNN, the number in 2004 was 11 percent.
Of course an explanation to that could be that a larger number of new voters have voted early.
Good to hear Julie
By the way, if it’s a modern phone connector it’s called an RJ12 connector
CNN reporting first time voters went for Obama 72%
Many comments have just been unlocked from moderation.
Not that surprising given that most young people vote left early on.
Boerwar @ 76,
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/11/the-wright-card.html
exit polls …
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/exit-polls-2008-see-the-f_n_140986.html
Not all the first time voters would be young, they have voluntary attendance remember.
Early exit polls showing tight margins in key states:
http://gawker.com/5076425/state-exit-poll-numbers-are-tighter-than-recent-polling
Drudge is claiming that exit polls are showing a big lead to Obama, with +15 in PA. No links from him yet though.
That is true ShowsOn, interesting to see how strong the youth vote is for Obama.
juliem, where are you getting those amazing stories from?
No details on that poll at all… where did it come from? how many respondents?
CNN reports that McCain is robocalling IN SPANISH Florida households to tell that that Fidel Castro has given his endorsement of Barack Obama ….
losers ……….
The excitment begins…
TPM website, they have a “live blogging link” where voters can email in their voting stories on the day …. I’ve closed that site down for the moment as after 10am will be more at the TV than here, will just check in here a coupld of times an hour, but you can load it up and find more stories there ….
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/
they have a nice live updates map on the right hand side of the main page too
Give me NUMBERS!
katastic
5:40 PM
Oh my God. I’m going to vomit.
http://gawker.com/5076425/state-exit-poll-numbers-are-tighter-than-recent-polling
I hope no pollbludgers would take exit polls as seriously as this Obama supporter lol.
Screw studying, I’m too tense.
David Walsh @ 85
Thank you. Phew.
MORE DATA.
Itep @ 9
I think the pollsters have factored in the early voters by sampling them as well. I don’t know the details.
Oz @ 98, EXACTLY ……
CNN exit polls have the Economy as top issue at 62%, Iraq 10%, Terrorism 9%, Health Care 9%, Energy 7%
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/04/1634499.aspx
Lots of machines breaking down in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Woo, democracy.
I’m not studying either…
You’d imagine McCain would want to be comfortably in front in most states in the ‘on-the-day’ polling to counter the pre-poll votes.
Polls are closing now in parts of IN and KY. If Mitch McConnell loses in KY it will be a GOP wipeout.
CNN exit poll
62% rate Economy as top issue
The state of the economy:
93% Not good/poor
6% Excellent/poor
Who will raise taxes:
70% Obama
61% McCain
sorry… above is 6% Excellent/Good
Who are these 6% of people?
Repo men
Kang and Kodos have endorsed McCain, just as they did Bob Dole in 96. Perhaps Obama can robocall registered republicans to warn of the danger?
It will be a GOP wipeout no matter what happens to McConnell
@110
Insolvency administrators?
who are kang and kodos?
Aliens in the Simpsons Adam
John Jackson and Jack Johnson
ah popular culture *mutters darkly*
who have beavis and butthead endorsed?
From Drudge (no links or actual figures)
Also reported is that 16% of Hillary Clinton supporters voted McCain
Itep @ 120
Passive tense… where reported and by whom?
McCain up 59-40 in early Kentucky numbers
Dario 2 122 Help, pulease… link?
signed
desperate
Adam:
You don’t watch the Simpsons?
It’s been shown in Australia since February 1991
That’s just…. oh wow!
It also hasn’t been funny since the mid-late 90s
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/full/#val=P
boerwar,
indiana and kentucky #’s (as well as others throughout the evening US time) are on a ticker at the bottom of the CNN screen …. so while they might not CALL a state, you will always be able to see the raw numbers a la the ticker on Fox Sports News …..
imagine that the cnn website (www.cnn.com) probably has the same thing? if you’ve got the net connection, open another browser window? Cheers
Obama leads 57-42 in Indiana with 1% of precincts reporting
IN
57-42 to Obama with 1% counted
I have watched the simpsons at various times in the past. I can sing Big Gay Al’s song, and also Kyle’s Mom is a B*tch. but i gave up on TV several years ago and no longer own one.
god i hate wolf blitzer. where is antony green when he need him?
thanks guys
adam where are you watching this if you don’t have a tv anymore?
Adam @ 130
Snap on the TV ownership. No car either.
Very liberating, except for the footie…
CNN exit poll had voters earning $100k+ voting Obama 52-47
don’t know where antony is, for that matter, where possum is either …. if either one or both of you guys are lurking today, speak up
……
there is a TV in my office.
Indianna down to 55/45
that will change when the precincts in Gary close at 7pm
More unconfirmed exit polls from huffpost (”These head to head exit polls just were sent to the Huffington Post by a Democratic source. These are traditionally unreliable…”):
Fl – 52%-44% to Obama
In – 52-48%
Oh 54-45%
NC – 52% – 48%
Mo – 52% – 48%
Pa – 57 – 42%
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/exit-polls-2008-see-the-f_n_140986.html
Go 51-47% to Mccain
possum would presumably be telling us by now that Obama is about to win Kooyong.
Exit polls:
Late deciders
Indiana 52 Obama 45 McCain
Ohio 54 Obama 39 McCain
Virginia 44 Obama 55 McCain
New voters all swung to Obama
72% Obama; 27% McCain
Early votes Kentucky:
62/37 (McCain)
Indiana now 52/47
mccain is pulling 62% in KY and mcconnell is only pulling 54% suggests that the Repub. aren’t voting straight party tickets and by the end of the evening mcconnell might be in danger glen ….
(cnn ticker at the bottom of the screen)
Just got back from seeing Mercury Rev live at Mandela Hall, Queen’s University, Belfast. They commented they would not be returning to the US if Obama lost
, and that it was great to be among friends on such a special night….
It should be noted that earlier precincts reporting are usually rural precincts which tend to favour Republicans
Obama now 50-49 in Indiana.
McCain 62-37 in Kentucky.
Glen, KY update – mccain 68% mcconnell 58%
CNN exit polls report that white evangelicals voted McCain 72-26 (Bush got 78)
The historical pattern in the US is that small rural precincts in the east come in first, followed shortly after by a flood of big-city precincts. So you get an early Republican wave, followed by a Democrat tsunami. Then the small-and-medium-city vote, particularly from the farm and mountain states, comes in, and drags the total back towards the Republicans.
I know this question has been asked a billion times, but what’s an easy to read, simple, online electoral map?
Make that 68/31 in Kentucky
MSNBC have a good one on their front page. Updating regularly.
Thanks, injuddstree.
Indiana is looking better for McCain atm, but who can tell so early on.
Wait till Indianapolis and Gary come in after 11am.
True that Adam.
@151 or you can try the NYT map, which has a little more details on the hover…
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html
Indiana is irrelevant to who actually wins. The election is not going to be decided there. VA, PA, OH, FL and CO are the important ones.
Est. 75% turnout in Virginia (according to AP)
Kentucky in to 51/48
KY Senate 9% counted – Dem 51% Rep 49% ….
trends are moving the wrong way at the moment for you Glen ….
At the MSNBC site, you can click on the map, and see a county map of each state, showing which counties are in and who they voted for.
It’s early days.
Just read this amusing comment on another blog:
“If McCain wins he’ll know it was Sarah and Joe the Plumber who got him over the line”
160, I saw #’s on another website earlier today that said 90% or better in CT .. heavy turnout everywhere
….. heavy turnout never favors the incumbent or his party
The Repugs have told MSNBC that Dole has lost NC. You beauty!! The Repugs have called NC an Obama tsunami.
Msnbc …. first use of the words ‘Obama tsunami’ in relation to North Carolina
New Hampshire 66/33. Guess which way.
Oz that’s based on about 60 votes isn’t it?
If you look at the map of Indiana, you can see that none of the urban counties are reporting yet. McCain should be a long way ahead on the rural vote. If he’s not he will lose when the urban vote comes in. Indianapolis is a heavily Dem city, with a black congresswoman.
More like 40 ltep, hah.
the nbc map seems to be ahead of the NY Times one
ha ha …. republican strategists are on CNN blaming the empty checkbook that they were working with for the poor results they are seeing … “if only we had more money …..” … yeah, right
…. all that would have resulted in would have been more robo-calls 
ltep
If Obama wins I think Sarah will have helped get him over the line too! Strange girl.
Boerwar
The phrase “Obama tsunami” was SMSed to them by a Repug staffer.
ROFL Peter van Onselen on Channel 9.
Go write a book.
CNN calls
Vermont for Obama
Kentucky for McCain
KY called for McCain!
And we’re under way…
MSNBC just called Kentucky for Mccain.
KY called for McCain and Vermont for Obama by MSNBC
Oh, and Vermont for Obama, as Dario says…
Oh, and 38 votes the difference in Indianna with 4% reporting!
ABC (USA) did the same.
OK, I think we’re on top of states being called
Lunsford is leading the KY Senate race with 9% reporting.
Indiana very tight after 4%
The Dems are also leading in KY-2, an open Repub district in rural KY.
CNN calls Mark Warner as winner
Indiana very very close with mainly rural precincts counted so far.
…of Virginia Senate race that is
Warner is winner in VA; bodes WELL for Obama although the Presidential race not called yet ….
But as KY is proving, voters can split their ballots. It seems quite possible that KY will vote for McCain but give the Dems the Senate seat.
McCain goes into the lead in Indiana.
There’s 1000 votes in it in Indiana
Did anyone expect Obama to win Kentucky?
Who’s watching Fox News for the laughs?
Wow ABC calling SC for Obama.
McCain pulling further ahead in Indiana
Obama back ahead in Indiana 50-49 by 3,500 votes, 7% of precincts
From 538:
Virginia results trickling in..
Oz @ 198 …… COOOOOL
…… expect then for CNN to not be far behind 
No way! That has been rock solid for McCain.
Virginia 1% counted, Obama leads 55-44
It’s all over if McCain can’t win there.
Must be a uni town.
If Obama can win in Indiana and Virginia surely thats enough, given the polls elsewhere? He’d then only need CO and NV.
22% black turnout in VA. Compared with 21% in 2004.
and Florida…
is that US ABC or our ABC?
Surely not…
VA going McCain with 1% counted
and that’s MCCain 55-44 in Virginia… and leading 53-47 in Florida, too early to be meaningfyl of course…
McCain 55-45 in VA
Indiana is going to go down to the wire, literally
Wolf Blitzer is beaming people into the studio!
MSNBC has McCain ahead in VA, on very early figures from rural areas.
OMG, now they are using holograms of reporters on CNN
US ABC, Adam.
They didn’t give figures though.
what does “down to the wire” mean, literally?
Unless McCain wins New York and California…
CNN must have had those early VA numbers backwards
Down to the wire means it won’t be called for a while.
what does “down to the wire” mean, literally?
Well, where the wire is… down there…
CNN is talking about how they are filming their coverage.
BORING!
Something to do with a telegraph wire?
Early Florida McCain 54-46
No, that’s what it means figuratively. What does it mean literally?
Indiana 9% counted McCain 50-49, leads by 2k votes
Origins of down to the wire:
American racetracks in the latter part of the nineteenth century — before the days of cameras — had a wire strung across the track above the finishing line to help stewards decide which nose had got across the line first.
The IN figures now include South Bend (Obama 64%), but not Indianapolis or Gary.
http://www.goenglish.com/DownToTheWire.asp
Wire = finish line, apparently.
McCain now ahead by 2,500 in Indiana and 6,500 in Florida
I think when they used to have a wire stretched across the course finish line in horse racing
Thanks Itep. What does “under the pump” mean?
lol_ 199 or 200 (which one to choose)
McCain pulling further ahead in Florida
McCain now 10,500 ahead in Florida 54-46
Wtf every network is using real figures and Channel 9 is still “Exit polls”.
Adam
I think it’s from horse racing as in a wire across the finish line. Or it could be a garotting in this context.
I’ll believe SC when I see it, and probably not even then
Adam, stfu.
Regarding idioms, not SC.
McCain now almost 5,000 votes in front in Indianna
The votes in FL are all from small rural GOP counties.
GA early results in…
Oz – http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/feature/splash/1,9199,5018332,00.html
McCain 10,000 in front in IN now!
When will the socialist counties start reporting?
McCain pulling away in Indianna, now almost 10,000 votes in the lead
Given that they haven’t even started reporting results there, I reckon its BS
Yes in horse racing they still have a wire above the finish line with photos taken from above so that the line can be seen in relation to the horse.
The same is true in VA, these figures are from three rural counties. The Dem vote is in the DC suburbs and the black areas along the coast.
Wat do we think, McCain doing well enough in Indiana to at least hold there??
Rural precincts reporting first remember
Looks like he will hold VA
Sorry, IN
Then surely ALL races go “down to the wire”, not just close ones?
Waaaaaaaaay to early to say that
2072.
Adam. Yes.
Holy crap, McCain won Indianapolis.
No, because if it isn’t close then you didn’t need the wire to tell who won
WOW! The Socialist-Democratic strong holds haven’t even reported in Indiana.
OBAMA 40,000 AHEAD IN FL?!?!
Only 2% of precincts are reporting from Indianapolis. Keep calm.
But they haven’t completed the race until the wire is reached… anyway, let’s stop that
Early days but McCain should be leading early so that is surprising
Thats right; they used to only take a photo if a horse race was close. If not the wire didn’t matter.
Yeah SC is definitely McCain, ABC must’ve been on crack.
Wow – CNN just showed how well Obama is doing in Indiana in comparison with 2004. Looks promising as lots of numbers to come from ‘blue’ areas yet.
Yeah, and the term “ground game” is now officially banned.
Wolf Blitzer just announced the time.
@263 It’ll take a while longer for results to come out of Indianapolis. Population of 1 milion, dont know how many voters
Yeah Wolf Blitzer said the numbers are wrong.
I’d be thinking Indianna is a tough ask.
IN is looking very good. Obama is outperforming Kerry by about 10% in the counties that are in so far.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/indiana.html
I’d forgotten how repulsive Graham Richardson is on Ch 9.
Exit polls for Ohio look promising for Obama.
They need Antony Green there to measure the county by county swings!
All votes are counted at precinct level. A precinct is about 1000 voters. They are then aggregated to county level. A county can have 10,000 voters or a million voters. So votes will be trickling in from precints into county centres, and small counties will report first.
The numbers in Florida so far look good, 330k obama, 220k mccain, though with only 2% reporting…
James Carville says that if Obama wins, he wins, but if he loses, he loses.
I think exit polls at state levels are pretty unreliable
Anyone explained Florida yet?
No arguing, the man is a genius. An alien-looking genius.
Totally, but that wasn’t his most insightful piece of work.
No but the numbers have been updated to Obama 57-43 after 2%
Obama 57% in Florida.
150,000 votes ahead. Wow.
57 to 43 to Obama in Florida!?
McConnell is now ahead in the KY Senate race.
National vote after 1% has Obama 51-48
Why can’t CNN get holograms of Obama and McCain in the studio at hte same time?
Is he the minority leader?
Florida should be kicked out the US. They clearly don’t know how to hold an election.
Obama well ahead in Florida – how much do the early numbers reflect the voters who voted early?
Obama leads 53-46 in SC after 15k votes lol
Obama cannot be that far ahead in FL on the counties that have reported so far. No votes from the Miami area at all!
MSNBC have also awarded 3 Senate seats (Dem 2 Rep 1) so far. Any surprises there? Do these represent gains or just return of safe seats?
Just checked FixedNews – Britt Hume (I think) seems to have a ‘gloomy look’ face or is it just that he always looks like that.
1 Dem gain I believe
On early results Obama ahead in North and South Carolina
BH @ 299,
Both
…….
Florida Obama 55-45 after 4%
7% increase in white evangelicals in Indiana compared to 2004.
The VA Senate seat has been given to the Dems. The other two are presumably KY (GOP head) and NC (GOP ahead on very early figures)
IN looking really good. Obama holding well before most of the “blue” areas have been counted. Both Betfair and Intrade have moved Indiana to Obama with about a 66% chance of a win.
South Carolina called for McCain ion MSNBC
MSNBC calls SC for McCain
I think the SC vote is coming from rural black areas. In SC the white republicans live in the cities like Charleston and Spartanville.
Apparently 1/3 of voters in Indiana who voted for the Republican Senator voted for Obama for President.
Very interesting
Except there’s no Senate race in IN
Fox calls WV for McCain
CNN has Obama 350 000 ahead in Florida. Should early returns be favouring the Democrat?
West Virginia reportedly called for MCCain.
I meant Governor.
No.
probably was meant to be the gov. race in IN
Adam 2 298
CNN gives: 1,294,042, 58% to Obama and 942,474, 42% to McCain.
Might be the pre-poll votes?
Dio,
are you channel switching? Fox supports the red states LOL ….
Vote blowing out in Florida
Early votes in from NH on CNN. Obama ahead by 3000 with 3% reporting
There’s some pretty silly stuff. SC called for McCain despite being behind 43-55 with 0% counted. Lots of the calls are on exit polls.
I don’t know whether the prepolls are now being fed into these figures.
What did they learn from 2000!?
Obama almost 100,000 votes in front in North Carolina
McCain 50 000 ahead in Virginia, but it seems only the real America distrcits are reporting at this stage.
I wonder how surreal America will vote.
Has CNN called Florida for OBama!?
MSNBC just broke.
Now CNN calls S.C. for McCain, even though he is currently losing.
How one earth is CNN calling south carolina based on 1% of the vote?
No.
Wolf Blitzer asks Anderson Cooper to make him a gin & tonic.
14% counted in FL and Obama leads 56-44… that is an ominous lead
The don’t just “call it” when it’s beyond any doubt. That’s why they get it wrong sometimes.
Shows
CNN are projecting based on current figures in
The problem is their projections are based on 2004 data lol
I’m switching channels – just heard Rove (urggghhh!) saying that Obama is doing better and is far ahead in bigger counties and McCain is doing better than expected but in smaller counties – do you think he is suggesting Obama will win Florida, Juliem?
Exit polls. And maybe comparing with Kerry / Bush.
MSNBC calls PA for Obama
PA called for Obama!
Beware Florida, very few results in from the north of the state.
MSNBC calls PA for Obama!
ABC gives PA and New Hampshire to Obama.
All the 8pm closing expected states now called for the respective candidates. No real surprises.
PA already??? It’s all over then…
NH to Obama MSNBC
CNN not calling PA
No 339
I think I’d wait for real votes.
Yes, quite – DC, Illinois…
EV total on CNN to date including states just called at the top of the hour
77 Obama
34 McCain
Chris Matthews calls the election for Obama. Says Obama winning Pennsylviana is “the second battle of Gettysburg”. LOL!
Chris Matthews declares his candidancy for the Democratic Pensylviania primary for 2012
103 / 34 Obama’s way on MSNBC
Is that it? Pennsylvania for Obama, and with it, the election?
EV 133-34 on MSNBC
McCain now ahead in SC
It’s not over until FL, OH, IN or VA are called. Then it’s over.
What is going on South Carolina is called for McClane, but Obama has more votes
BH @ 338, not sure … what channel are you watching? You said “Rove”, does that mean you are on Fox?
Rove was reported earlier on HP in one article as saying Obama would walk away with it today ….
sorry 103-34
Put down your glasses, all
PA’s only been called on exit polls btw.
It’s idiotic to call a state based on exit polls, no matter what they say.
No 363
I agree. It is the height of arrogance to do such a thing and looks more like a race between the media outlets as to who can call the state first.
That’s why CNN says they aren’t calling it.
ShowsOn,
glad to hear it (#353) but I’m hanging on CNN as I need to get their count for my head count on our EV contest
….
Seems to me that CNN is going the same way but is a bit slower about it … I Don’t mind that at all because then I know what I am waiting for LOL ….
I’ll read what MSNBC are calling and then wait for CNN to do the same
It’s true that the FL panhandle hasn’t reported yet, but Obama is leading in Orlando and St Petersburg, which are GOP towns. You’d think he’ll win FL from here. Note also Obama’s 75% in Broward – the Jews stuck with Obama despite Lieberman’s defection.
Dio @ 357,
The Fat Lady is warming up with Obama getting PA
…..
The senate race is also up to Dem 7 Rep 3 on MSNBC – surely there is more than 1 Dem gain involved?
I reckon FL has gone blue. That is just too big a lead after 20% and in counties that Bush won as well.
He hasn’t gotten it.
Early counting in Ohio: Obama 69/30
Who’s Lieberman?
Obama ahead in Texas according to NYT
No, still just the 1 I think
LOL! No way. Must be the socialist counties.
Surely you jest
We should remember in Florida that there are big conservative urban blocks in the Cuban areas of Miami etc that might come in late. Still I agree Dario – a 400,000 lead is a pretty good start.
No 374
I assume that will be Austin
That’s because of Dallas, I presume.
Formerly Dem leaning independent Senator
*Laughs at the idea of socialists in Texas*
Apparently Hispanics are breaking 55/45 for Obama in Florida, so the Cuban areas might not save Mccain.
No 377
Check the website yourself.
Obama way ahead in Ohio, but the areas in favour him, I think…
The Pollster site tells you which news organisations have called which state. Only ABC and NBC have called PA, I’ll wait for the other four or at least three.
CNN has been showing the counties that have come in and they are all heavily for Obama after being solid Bush counties from 4 years ago
He was Gore’s VP candidate in 2000, now campaigning for McCain. But he doesn’t seem to have had much effect on the Jewish vote. Obama’s speech at AIPAC was well-received.
In Fla, Osceola County Obama up 54-46, this was a Rep county last time…
That’s becuase he is irrelevent, hence my comment.
Maybe these big Dem surges in the early figures are the prepolls being fed into the system. It would be good to know how many of the votes being reported are actually “Tuesday votes” and how many are prepolls.
Obama over 120,000 votes ahead in Texas according to NYT update.
Juliem – I am switching between CNN, Skye News & Fox just to see results. Computer in study, away from TV, so I am wearing out the carpet a lot going back and fro.
Karl Rove on Fox – heard him yesterday calling it for Obama but earlier this a.m. he was saying McCain was picking up and was confident, so a surprise to hear him virtually calling it for Obama in Florida. He said that the McCain vote is better than Bush’s but it is in small counties – Obama is much further ahead than expected in the bigger counties. Sounded good for Obama
Sununu loses
Biden wins his Senate seat again!
He’s only ahead in Texas because two of the biggest cities have come. Virtually every other county will be Republican. Obama won’t win Texas.
What is the URL for the CNN webpage with results (not video feed)?
NH is a Dem sweep. It’s only a decade since NH was rock-solid GOP.
DAMN! I wanted him to set up a ranch there!
Oz @ 371,
You picked McCain, you’re biased
…. I’ll go with MSNBC 
Florida narrows slightly, but Obama still looks good.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/
If texas votes Obama, there is not going to be a fat enough “Fat Lady”
Obama is leading in ME by 2 votes to 1. A small sample indeed.
MSNBC = Exit polls.
I’ll wait for actual votes.
Socrates
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
WHAT! Obama up by 17% in North Carolina?
LOL, also according to NYT, Obama ahead in Maine. Current counting: Obama 2 votes; McCain 1 vote.
and up about 84% in Alabama
Virginia surprising, McCain 55-42 after 31%
Wolf Blitzer asks Anderson Cooper for a Vodka-Tonic.
It’s not true that all of rural TX votes GOP. The southern third of the state is solidly Hispanic and Dem. Austin, El Paso and San Antonio are heavily Dem. The GOP strength is in the cowboy west and north and the cotton counties in the east.
No 410
Yep. Considering that Obama expected an easy win there.
ShowsOn are you in some kind of alternate universe?
I got Wolf talking to Axelrod right now.
If you get the chance check out mccains campaign room on CNN
they know the truth
What the heck is going on in Virginia?
Obama still ahead in Texas by 80,000.
MYEFO released!
Surplus slashed from $21 billion now down to $5.4 billion.
Oh, Oh, Florida ballots in doubt again…They had a bizarre ballot where you had to colour in the bit between two shapes to make an arrow to point to your preferred candidate! Legal eagles are drooling at the thought of a re-run…
NYT has early OH returns at 65.3% for Obama and 33.5% to McCain. Montgomery county (SW near the IN border, one county on the border with PA and multiple counties on Lake Erie. Columbus not in yet …..
Well 3 of the strongest Democratic areas have come in and there’s huge conservative swathes that haven’t.
2% GDP growth of Aus, woo.
No 418
Given how much money is about to flow into the economy thanks to a spending spree and a 2% interest rate cut, I think that outlook is slightly pessimistic.
Hagan Beats Dole in North Carolina
Kay Hagan takes another Senate seat for Dems.
Score one for the Godless American Sunday school teacher.
This is the third Democratic Senate pickup of the night; Warner (VA), Shaheen (NH), and Hagan (NC).
CNN gives only a 1% difference between total national votes between Obama (50%) and McCain (49%).
CNN calls NH for Obama
MSNBC has called PA for Obama
Well $10b of that was already known… I think 5.4 isnt too bad considering
ABC America calls Alabama for McCain. Arkansas also McCain.
Alabama projected for McCain
Is she in the Atheist-Socialist party?
Where does Soledad’s accent come from?
Dole loses senate seat.
Didn’t they call PA for Obama ages ago based on nothing?
Didn’t they do that half an hour ago? Still no real votes.
Any news on Joe the Plumber? (I hope he remembered to vote!)
McConnell only up by 2%
McCain takes the lead in Texas. Bad luck, GP.
Irish-Australian Dad, African American mum.
Georgia called for McCain by msnbc
No 438
Rejoice. I’m barracking for McCain anyway.
florida tight 52-48, been trending mccain since the start, hope BHO pulls through
CNN gives PA to Obama
MSNBC did that half hour ago!
Western Florida hasn’t come through yet. Is that Dem or Repub?
NC not looking good for McCain, with Obama leading 56-44 after 12% counted
McCain leads popula count…
Yes, CNN is being cautious
popular… overall.
In fact, not a single state has flipped either way yet. Lots of excitement and noise but nothing important.
PA is 66% Obama but that’s with Philadelphia in.
MSNBC has called the NC Senate race for Hagan.
It’s definitely not the looking like the easy win some were predicting.
Not sure how you can say that… no swing states have been called either way other than PA
No 451
But only 12,000 votes have been counted – how can they declare it either way. Ridiculous.
Overwhelming exit polls it would seem
Apparently even Fox has called Pennsylviana for Obama.
I don’t get it either, three networks have called it based on those figures and exit polls.
and its not really a swing state
Margin in FL drops from 250K to 150K
Obama is leading in countes 55/45 that Bush won by similar margins.
So they are extrapolating from that Antony Green style.
Well, they’ve called heaps of other states without getting any votes based on just exit polls, so clearly PA was in the same boat
No 458
It looks far too much like a race to call the states between the networks. Self-serving nonsense. Let’s wait for some figures – heck, imagine the outrage if seats in Australian elections were called by the networks based on less than 1% of the votes!
The difference being none of those were swing states.
Is it just me, or does it look like Florida is coming home for ‘Bama?
Further narrowing in Florida.
I’m calling it for Obama.
Enjoy the day Democratic Folks.
North Carolina tightening
Carville almost conceding McConnell’s seat senate seat back to the Repubs
Cheers Glen
Sure, call PA on 0% but don’t call VA when McCain is 10% ahead after 43% voted. Weird.
No 471
I reckon. Very bizarre.
Make that 5% ahead Oz
Have the results come in from the anti-American parts?
Not if exit polls say PA to Obama by 12% and they say 50-50 in VA
hahaha not yet I think…
Early votes, Missouri – McCain 58/40
5%
btw he’s only 5% ahead after 50% counted
Exit polls are a rort.
It’s probably heavily republican areas in VA that have come in, and now it’s evening up.
And lots of Obama areas outstanding..
CNN’s exit polls in Virginia put Obama on about 55% from what I can see, which is why nobody is in a rush to call it I’m guessing. They also put him on around 53% in Missouri, which I really didn’t expect him to win.
Re 482,
yeah, on MO, if you look at the NYT map, the only Dem. county reporting is the Kansas City one on the western border ……
The big close coming up…
Which is why exit polls should be ignored and states only called once it is clear someone has won on the actual vote.
Virginia has probably been dominated by the more conservative rural areas.
In the Senate, the race in Kentucky looks extremely close, while it’s worth looking at Texas. The Democrat is trailing 50-48 with 2% counted.
Polls now closing in much of the west.
not if the lead is massive
MI for Obama/and MN
Then there’d be nothing to distinguish the networks!
Remember, they’re competing for 260 million views. That’s a lot of money. It’s also a bit dodgy if you accept the argument that calling results in some areas can influence voters in other areas.
Fox predicts Chambliss to win GA.
And all six news groups have called PA for Obama.
plus NY and WI
Arizona too close to call
(CNN) …. Obama up to 174 on CNN
Fox cals Oio for Obama!
Ahem… Ohio…
In Indiana, only 9% of precincts reporting in Porter County and none in Lake County. That’s Gary, Indiana folks; which went for Obama in a big way in the primary. I see Arizona is “too close to call” from the networks on exit polls.
MSNBC confirms that Northern Virginia has not reported.
CNN exit poll 20% said race was important to their vote, but they voted the same amount for Obama as those that said it wasn’t
If the news stations start calling Ohio or Florida for Obama I think its all over folks
wow
Obama’s won, let’s go to sleep.
Argh it’s only 1.
Income Tax now looks safe in Massachussetts.
It’s been over since Lehman Brothers went bust.
ND to McCain, MN and WI to Obama on CNN
If you go to the Daily Kos political scoreboard, you can zoom in and look at each county and see how much is reporting. Most of the Virginian counties near DC have barely reported.
While election clearly NOT called yet, CNN’s main Republican strategist on the commentary panel says based upon results shown to the moment, we can clearly put the Bradley Effect to bed ………
Fox gives NM to Obama
174-76
the end is nigh
Everyone with a brain (ie. not the media) put it bed 20 years ago.
493
WHO ……. cool … neat
…. that spells it then as NO republ. has ever won without carrying OH and if Fox is calling it before CNN than CNN are being really careful tonight 
…..
The Fat Lady is out now ….
Will Fox be first to call an Obama win??
hahahahaha
So we know where that bottle of wine that juliem bought last week went…
Fox retracted their call of Ohio for Obama.
Oz, I didn’t give it to Dario
…..
I’ve got champagne today … finished the wine over the International Rules footy games over two respective Friday’s ……
So Texas hasn’t been called yet… Does that mean exit-polls were close?
Man this guy really does look like an alien.
William, only a matter of time, the NTY map shows Franklin county (which I believe from memory is the county which contains Columbus, Ohio) as breaking for Obama …..
CNN’s polls for Texas seem to show a 52/48 split in McCain’s favour, which is damn close considering this is Texas we’re talking about
Either way, it hasn’t been a Reagan-style whitewash for Obama.
517, should read NYT, sorry
Still looking good in FL…
Is it not in the best interests of the networks to keep the suspense so people keep watching? In that regard, CNN is being clever.
Virginia is down to 50/49 also, I notice
What the hell are they doing over there…
Yep, it looks like it’s going blue. 64% counted
Harold Ford Jr says the big Democratic counties in Virginia are yet to report.
there is movement at mccains campaign
he wouldn’t concede yet would he?
David Palmer for President. Jack Bauer for vice president.
Why not, he’s probably tired.
Fox calls Ohio for Obama, properly this time.
The voters in North and South Dakota seem to have forgotten which state is supposed to be the close one…
It’s a dead give away if he has his slippers on.
Oz
thats right its way past his bedtime.
Udall wins CO.
OMG – Check out Viginia on CNN. McCain’s lead down to 18000.
Is that it? Ohio does it? Or do we still need Florida or something else?
FL and VA both tightening.
CNN gives West Virginia to McCain.
msnbc has just called Ohio for Obama
And now intrade and betfair have Obama at 98 and 99% respectively.
MSNBC calls Ohio for Obama. Chris Matthews shouts everyone a beer.
Does anyone know much about NC? ABC has Obama up 51/48 with 43% counted (100,000 vote lead). Will the late votes favour repubs?
CNN about to call Ohio too I think
PLEASE get the country music off of CNN ……. shseeeeesssshhhh ….
Hank Williams at McCain HQ on the day …
CNN also reporting a MAJOR projection AFTER their current commerical break ….
So, about 75 EC votes to go??
How much money would I have to put to actually get a return? $20 million?
No way back for McCain without Ohio
Florida?
I reckon CNN will call it for Obama after the break.
If you take MSNBC’s number of 195 for Obama, add 55 in California, 4 in Hawaii, 11 in Washington and 7 in Oregon, you come up with 272. Those four states are the only four Kerry states not to be called already for Obama. It’s almost over.
Congratulations, President Obama
No chance yet, still too close
So who cares about VA and FL then?
Well played, Obama. But American needed Nader.
Obama is catching up in VA
MSNBC just called New Mexico for Obama
CNN not calling Ohio yet
or Hillary, blah blah blah
Ohio – Columbus for Obama
Cleveland – no reports yet at all and they are heavily African American and 12% of the state population
SNIP: Overheated comment deleted – The Management.
No, Nader. It was a joke man, relax.
won’t be OH not yet, they mentioned a bit about the various big cities and counties per my post a few numbers ago, but no projections … don’t know what they were going on about ?????
mccain about to front the press
CNN just called Ohio for Obama.
CNN just called Ohio for Obama
HEre they go …. and it is, NOW OHIO ……
…… CNN, Ohio for the Dems ….
lol an exact copy!
HAH, I win.
No Georgia for Obama, and why the hell is Virginia so close?!! He’s won, but the 370+ guessers in the contest not looking so good now…
hahaha good to hear
Gus, on what channel?
I, for one, welcome our new socialist overlords…
Well played, speed typer
ABC America claims that Republican turnout in Ohio is lowest ever. 40% in 2004; 30% in 2008.
Hah, Texas hasn’t been called.
Because none of the Dem strongholds have reported yet. It’s a state of almost two totally different demographic halves.
Olbermann states the obvious – Obama has won – everyone else tells him to shut up.
No 571
Enjoy getting your hard earned money stolen.
GP @ 559 lol
Howard/Blair/Bush
‘Look on my works, ye mighty and despair.’
All gone, leaving behind them a vast and trackless waste…
At least my southern brethern {I’m from Michigan originally} in Ohio did the right thing this election
…..
Good on ya
McCain believed in taxation too, that menas you must believe in stealing. Thankfully he has lost.
The GOP “victory party” has turned off the news.
But the socialist overlords are the ones what are leaving! Bank nationalisations etc.
Obama doesn’t have such a huge buffer either in EV’s or Congress that everyone was expected, 2012 could be fun.
Quick GP, lick everything you own so the socialists can’t take it off you.
McCain HQ have turned off the TV’s lol
Um, which President have $70bn of public money to Wall St bankers?
mccain should be 5 mins max
juliem the SMS channel
A party that palns to cut taxes while raising spending (McCain) is stealing from the future. Its called debt – the republican way.
“Quick GP, lick everything you own so the socialists can’t take it off you.”
post of the thread
well I guess McCain is the equivalent to an inanimate carbon rod..
CNN just all but called it for Obama… not officially though
No 584
No use hiding from the truth. I was at the Wentworth in Sydney when Howard lost and conceded. We never turned of the TVs.
Obama only 7000 behind in VA. NC narrowing. Lead back to 180 000 in FL.
McCain is now only 7000 votes ahead in VA out of 2.2 million counted.
*off not of in 591.
I think he will, the way things are going
Yeah, Howard conceded very well it has to be said
Best speech of his career!
CNN finally calls NM for Obama, LA for McCain
It looks like the only one left as core Republicans now are evangelicals, rednecks. hillbillies and rich people.
Obama leads CO 54-45 after 8%
CNN calling New Mexico for Obama, based on him having 37% of current votes counted.
LOL
Once the West Coast comes in this race is over, apart from possible gains in Virginia and Florida and Colorado, etc etc.
I’m watching the Senate. Dems have gained four, they’ll gain Colorado and probably Oregon, probably Alaska too, and Minnesota will go down to the wire.
Obama draws up along side in VA…
I’m off.
Congratulations to Obama and to voters of the United States. The US can still do some great things.
Now for the really hard bit.
No 597
No way, the Censure motion against Paul J Keating was his best ever.
@ 599
And those belonging to a new demographic category, Joe Six-packs.
McCain now leads in VA by 2000 votes
Were you the bloke yelling out “NO!” when Howard was conceding?
So after 8 years and a broken economy the swing voters swung the other way… suprise?
and plumbers
BK @ 599,
Thankfully for the world, the US doesn’t contain a majority of population that fits those demographic groups
Westie @ 599
Sorry, I forgot that important group.
BREAKING NEWS: McCain meeting with Palin, discussing age of Earth.
No 608
I have to admit, that I was one of those who yelled No! LOL
Juliem
Thankyou for all your insights and comments these past several weeks. They have been a joy to behold.
hahaha why am I not surprised GP
GP that’s what I was going to ask you
@ 612
And whether it’s flat.
I thought Howard’s speech was better then Rudd’s.
The icing on the cake for this election would be The Greens holding the balance of power in the senate.
Not saying much though. Rudd’s was fairly ordinary.
Obama racing away in VA!!
No 618
Rudd really isn’t a good orator anyway. He’s a bloody bureaucrat for god sake!
Obama 8K in the lead in VA.
Indiana down to 7000 between em, votes still in Gary outstanding.
Channel 7’s Rani Sadler announcing her proposal to Barack Obama.
Howard wasn’t an orator either. Australia has been bored stiff for 12 years now.
Except when Keating piped up.
I need to stop procrastinating.
No 625
Channel 7’s coverage has been embarrassing to say the least.
IA to Obama on NBC
No 627
Greatest speech ever:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=TwKgt3lbsG4
CNN calls Iowa for Obama, Utah & Kansas for McCain
OK ,,, top of the hour, CNN now has 206 EV ….. what time does CA close? someone remind me …. thanks
Obama now leading Virginia for the first time
In 1 hour Julie, one hour and then it’s all over when Hawaii, California, Washington and Oregon close simultaneously.
What do I hate most about CNN? Their relentless self-promotion? Their tiresome over-hyping of everything? Their ponderous, portentious tone? No, I think it’s their unctious GOODNESS, all this endless chatter about Africa and reporters earnestly emoting about whatever their cause of the month is…
3pm AEDT
Juliem, 3pm our time.
No 635
CNN is only good in small doses. Fox News for the win.
BK @ 614,
thanks for the kind words, I lived in the US for 43 years, but I am true blue Aussie now. while I am passionate about US politics and more to the point, Democratic politics in particular, I live here now
Perhaps the local TV statiosns hould have gotten their sports presenters to call it in a livelier fashion? If you can’t add facts…
No 640
Ray Hadley could make a funeral exciting.
Generic Person @ 559 -
Congratulations to the Bolshevik crusader, Barack Hussein Obama.
As opposed to Putin’s lapdog John McCain?
Obama coming in to bowl to McCain now… and his edged it to second slip and that’s out!
Obama will now pull ahead in VA. It looks like he will carry IA, NM, CO, VA, NC, FL, OH and still possibly IN. NV is still to come.
Juliem.
I happened to be in Boston for the 2000 election and have taken a pasionate interest in US politics ever since. I pleases me very much that Obama now has the chance to restore the USA to its rightful place.
McCain leading in VA by 16 votes
HAH Republican strategist on CNN:
“All we need are 9 votes in the Supreme Court and we could still pull this off”.
Arkansas for McCain.
CNN gives Arkansas to McCain
That was pretty funny
On my screen Obama is leading by 10,000 in VA.
It doesn’t have a “rightful place”. It’s a country that should just shut up, sit down and mind it’s own business. Obama’s foreign policy rhetoric doesn’t suggest that’s going to happen.
Yes, it just changed in the last minute.
We need a chamber graphic.
Hear hear Oz
Yeah, CNN is showing Obama leading 50-49 despite being down by 212 votes
VA just updated again… Obama up by 22,000 votes
No 651
Republican Ron Paul pretty much said the same thing.
On ABC (US) Obama is now leading by 28000 in Virginia (86% counted). Given earlier precedents I’m almost surprised they aren’t calling it.
26,000 votes sorry
The popular vote is way to close, and even with California, will be way to close to say “America has changed”.
The US is the leader of the free world and the world needs it to fulfil that role. Obama will, I hope, do it better than Bush did. If he does it half as well as Clinton did he will still be much better than Bush. The US cannot abdicate that role. It tried that in the 1920s and the results were disastrous. I think Obama is wise enough to know that.
The earlier precedents had exit polls showing a massive win in those states, and clearly they didn;t show that for VA so they haven’t called it.
With California it will jump significantly
Half of what he said made a lot of sense, the other half didn’t. So not a surprise he endorsed Nader, McKinney and Barr.
Another humourous comment from Conservative blog (some real sour grapes there):
“My prediction on the Bush nostalgia is next July”
Obama is only 5000 up in NC now.
What could he possibly do that would be worse?
I think the popular vote only looks close because the dark red states have a high % reporting whereas the dark blue ones a very low %
New York, PA and the North East all have more % counted than Texas.
Yes, Dem precincts usually report last
And Texas has more % counted than CA
mccains still looking for his slippers!
Early votes, Arizona: Obama 55/44
Other way around?
Mine is showing McCain 55-44
Down to 4000 votes in both North Carolina and Indiana now.
Yes it just changed on mine. Whoops.
Obama now leads by 37,000 votes in VA with 88% reported
John Murtha re-elected!
63 more EC votes before CNN calls it… how long before polls close in CA? The West Coast swing will get him there for sure, not sure if they can call enough states between now and then for Obi (thinking tiebreaker here!!!)
half an hour or so away, right?
30 mins
Would be hilarious if McCain made a miraculous come back and won California.
Surely Florida has gone? 77% and ‘Bama 3 points up…
Floirda solidifying for Obama, now up by nearly 200,000 votes with 77% reporting
Franken looking ok in the Senate race
Best Obama can do now is 378 – needs all of VA, FL, MO, IN, NC, CO, NV and MT. What chance of him pulling all of these off?
Oie! Dr Carr, Kirribilli Removals sure can pick em eh, – Howards loses seat, Obama wins primary, GFC, America in recession and now Obama is da prez
Not bad for an ignorant loathing lefty
They must be getting close to calling CO for Obama.
YAY! The Democratic-Farmer-Labor party lives!
Hillary would’ve got them AND Texas.
Mike Murphy is downing Vodka shots.
You forgot she would have pulled off Utah too
Obama may win the 2nd congressional (Omaha) district in Nebraska!
And Oklahoma
Fox News give Virginia to Obama
Why do the pundits NOW tell us that “Republican sources yesterday told me they were going to lose X”
Why didn’t they say that YESTERDAY? Maybe they are making up fiction.
Spam Bx, I also said that Howard wd lose his seat. I don’t recall anyone making predictions here on economic matters – I certainly never have. I concede that I underestimated Obama in both the primaries and the general. On the latter, however, I think McCain would have been competitive and might even have won had the GFC not happened.
Obama now ahead 51-48 in the national vote with the west coast still to come. It’s going to be a decent margin I think.
AND demand a recount?
Yep, it’s looked gone for a little while
And had he had chosen a V.P. candidate that didn’t help him lose Pennsylviana and Ohio.
McCain hits the lead in NC
Yes, there are significant patches of blue appearing there, it could flip
I’d say he’ll hold it… only 15% left and the momentum seems to be going his way there now
Its gonna be the West Coast swing that gets him over the line, if my clock is right (about 15 min?)…. the competition is going to be decided by FL, MO, IN and MT I think (Obi is surely gonna win VA, CO and NV?)
Has intrade got any wrong?
CNNs exit poll had Obama and McCain tied at 50/50 in Arizona.
didnt anyone see CNN
will i am was on as a hologram
wo
I think FL, CO, VA are all going blue
Yeah they’ve been doing a few of those through the day
who is will i am?
expat @ 705, should be now ….. I’m blocking off lines on my Excel sheet for tie breakers as various ones are ruled out ….. and mind you, those tie breakers only come into play for people who end up on the same number of votes as someone else …
dammit, forgot NC
I am not sure about the Bradley effect, most opionion poll showed about 55-45 Obama, the actual result so far is 51-49
Musician / activist.
711,
A rapper of some import in the US. I don’t do that genre of music, but to those who do, he’s a big deal …..
Not yet
Black Eyed Peas
Dio @ 689
I would say Colorado might be some time off. Denver is already reporting, which is exaggertaing Obama’s margin there.
Most of the prediction sites were 52 / 45
Dario
right freaky an all that was!
who else have they had on?
Indiana is down to hundreds of votes, with 92% counted…
Dario @ 709,
Hope so
… so far, so far mind you, night not done yet, I am batting 100% for those states that I thought Obama would win when I said 376 …..
I loathe rap nearly as much as country.
hee hee, Jules – the picking of the state was a huge brainteaser (even tho it might not count!) – 6 minutes away, folks!!
Obama just took the lead in Indiana for the first time in a long while.
CNN are showing people watching in Sydney Australia
Obama leading in Indiana by 7000 votes. What would have been the odds on him losing NC and winning IN?
Just CNN reporters I think…
really? missed it!
726,
see #723
…… I reckoned on Indiana 
…. my 376 was William’s 375 + 1 for Omaha 
Still down 6,000 on my screen
No 727
Out of curiosity juliem, why did you migrate to Australia?
just arrived in my inbox …
Interesting stat from CNN… this will be the 5th election in a row where the candidate with the better military ‘record’ loses
CNN Virginia to Obama
She did it for love!
Of her husband…
and cricket!
Since when was Al Gore a war hero? He did a stint as an army photographer in Vietnam.
California/Wash/Oregon/Hawaii is going to put him over the 270 on CNN
CNN is about to call it.
CNN gives it to Obama
Hopefully having a military record will no longer be seen as a litmus test.
MSNBC does the same.
obama obama obama
I guess that was considered better than Bush
CAN WE DO IT?
YES WE DID!
Obama has won http://australiavotes2007.blogspot.com/2008/11/live-us-election-blog.html
And the margin is back down to 700 in NC too, good news keeps coming
Hillary would’ve done it better.
GP, married an Aussie in 1996. We always intended to live in Australia but because I have been married before and at the time we got together, I had minor children from that marriage who were in my custody, we couldn’t leave the US initially. We got married in 1996. We had to wait until those minor children were of age and adults before we could move back to here (Dec. 2004).
Of course it was better than the coward and shirker Bush. But it doesn’t make him a “hero.”
hahahaha
BREAKING NEWS: Texas, Georgia, Utah and Oklahoma suceed
Never said it did, just that it was a better war ‘record’
WW3 baby! WOOOHOOOO!!!!!
president- elect obama
just wanted to write it
HERE I AM, SIGNED, SEALED, DELIVERED, I’M YOURS…
Comments from the conservative blog:
“Palestinians will be dancing in the streets now”
“At least we have until January to p*** off the left. If President Bush has any sense left he will do anything he can to be a thorn in the side of the Dems”
“I will treat him with the same respect the left has treated Bush the past 8 years”
Sour grapes anyone?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=MuCoCYhJCqA
GO DEMS
BREAKING NEWS: McCain camp demands a recount of California and New York.
First glass of bubbly has just been imbibed!!!
Stupid ABC isn’t even showing the win live!
What happens to Biden’s senate seat now? Does the governor appoint a replacement?
WOO HOO!
and there was dancin, dancin in the streets!
G’day all from th amigos on this day of days Seems th 4 marginol States originaly dicussed (IN , MO , NC and FL) ar indeed going to decide th margin of e/v’s
Pollstars trends rarely wrong and generaly are not , but th confederancys VA & NC will upset there predicted gaps but then they can always say that moe word
Now the only thing that annoys me?
….. We’re going to be driving across the Nullarbor to Perth in mid to late January. I’m going to miss the bloody inuaguration ……
will have to get my brother in the US to cut and snail mail me the news clippings
hahahaha funny stuff
#763,
you got it mate
I saw this being predicted on the Daily Kos in Nov 2002 when he was still a state senator and the Dems were still trying to figure out what had happened. Somebody wrote something about this young guy in Illinois. I which I had cut and pasted it into my worth keeping file.
A lot of people have waited for this day. I am thinking of a 114 year old lady who voted – she was the daughter of a former slave.
I think the USA has come back to our world.
SNIP: Overheated comment deleted – The Management.
Yes, the Governors of IL and DE will appoint new Senators when Obama and Biden resign. Both are Dems so the new Senators will also be Dems.
BK @ 761,
I’ve been sipping all day …. bugger the glass now, I’ll go straight from the bottle to finish it
Here is another one …..
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=QNnWpTIlkn0
What worries me is that according to a client of ours who operates in Tx a lot of folks are openly talking assassination.
SNIP: Overheated comment deleted – The Management.
Albert
well said
No 750
Fair enough. How similar/different is life here, compared to the United States?
Gotta be fast in this game. After just typing an analysis doubting whether O had the votes in the tank to turn around NC, after 90% of the votes counted he’s not only wiped out a deficit that reached 22k, he’s now 2k up. Sure, he’s spent his golden Mecklenburg County to get there, but there are still some favourable counties for him uncounted (as there also are for McC).
Without wantin’ to blow me own trumpet, I did predict that NC would be balltearingly close. You have to focus on the isolated contests when the country as a whole is such a blowout.
No 774
Disgraceful comparing McCain to an executioner.
IDIOT! The bolsheviks didn’t execute people? Go read some books.
Not fast enough SimonH, CNN now has him down 21k
NBC calls CO for Obama
GP if you run to Phoenix you can be there to say “NO!” when McCain concedes.
MSNBC calls Florida for Obama.
FL to Obama MSNBC
A disgusting comment of the type we have come to expect from a slime like ShowsOn.
Executed Nazi’s even.
Where does that leave us?
MSNBC has Obama on 333.
McCain has conceded.
Get real. I was just responding to G.P. calling Obama a bolshevik.
So how is Hillary doing anyway? Is she up in Michigan?
McCain’s on stage.
mccain speech now
Damn, my EV prediction was off… but my timing was spot on Julie.
Very good concession speech from McCain
McCain is trying to put the genie back in the bottle. Nice speech. Hope it works.
Yeah, sorry about that Al … I said Colorado, and I was WAY off … however, MO hasn’t been decided yet and so far, I am batting 100% on states for Obama …..
McCain’s concession speech is truly amazing.
You’re right Zedar @ 780. Have to call it for McCain then with 20k deficit on 94% counted. Not enough people in Franklin and Wilson counties to make that up, and Bush won them in 2004 anyway (Obama will win them this time, but only with 53-60% of the vote). The rest of the uncounted 6% appears to be detritus that won’t break strongly either way.
Well, it was a good speech until he mentioned Palin
Pity he doesn’t realise that Sarah Palin types are killing his party.
796, he’s had weeks to get it organized …..
Pitty the crowd keeps boing when McCain just states a fact.
GP @ 796: Of the candidates in this election, I always thought that McCain clearly had the experience, maturity and aptitude to give an outstanding concession speech.
You love leadin’ with the jaw, huh?
It’s a good speech if a bit wooden.
He couldn’t be that good, according to G.P. McCain just lost to a Bolshevik.
McCain must have imported some of the poor losers from Howard’s election night crowd.
A very gracious concession by McCain – and probably a clue into the kind of direction he would rather have fought this campaign. I wonder how many independents he would have won (and how many right-wingers he would have lost) if he had played things the way he wanted to.
That’s what happens when most of your support base opposes the other candidate out or personal hatred, not out of belief they have superior policy.
I’d be embarrassed to be heard chanting U.S.A
It was a good speech, although it was a bit obvious that he was reciting it from a memorised script.
McCain – best speech eva!
Spare a thought for our mate, SwingLowe
…..
He’s the best seat in the house at the moment in Grant Park
I thought he was reading off the rearview mirrors.
Hillary would have got the Alco-pops tax through
Obama is leading in MT
LOL!
No 809
Obama brought a teleprompter to every rally, so I hardly think it’s bad.
Lucky Palin didn’t speak because she looked on the verge of emotional collapse.
Great, that’s going to stuff up everyone’s predictions.
Didn’t say it was.
That eventually follows an intellectual collapse.
The polls and Intrade were absolutely spot on.
McCain was gracious. It’s a shame he sold his soul and didn’t get anything in return.
I need Nevada, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri and the +1 from Omaha ……
My 10yo is home from school now and he is excited …. Mum has trained him well
Well I said the US was headed for imminent recession since late last year. Once you saw the volume of dubious CDS deals coming due there had to be a problem. I was quite surprised that their accounts didn’t show a recession in the first quarter this year. I didn’t predict it would go global though.
He gets to go back to the Senate for 2 more years.
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
Generic Person
#774
“Disgraceful (by ShowsOn) comparing McCain to an (Nazi) executioner”
GP , I agree with you completeley , not all ‘left’ people hav ShowsOn ’s less han satisfactory blogging standards
I think probably McCain has destroyed the republicans. Right now, the fundies are planning a purge, a coup, and/or starting a new party…
I am not sure they will ever get back into the big tent.
Gp @ 823, you are biased
Recessions and depressions caused mainly by a collapse of confidence, which flows from a lack of leadership and of faith in leadership. In the 1930s FDR was able to a considerable extent to turn around the economy by sheer force of personality. Maybe Obama can do the same, maybe in a more closely integrated world he will be able to do even better.
How sickening is it to hear “USA! USA! USA!”
“OBAMA! OBAMA! OBAMA!”
The shallowness of American politics always makes me itchy.
SNIP: Tiresome bickering deleted – The Management.
Anyone can watch a pretty high quality live stream here:
http://www.foxnews.com/video2/live.html?chanId=1
Peter @ 825, we can live and hope
…..
I don’t think this was nearly as bad for McCain as it could have been. I think that given he had to take the backlash over GWB’s unpopularity, getting as close as he has on the popular vote is an impressive achievement. I’m predicting he will be remembered well as making this election a lot closer than it could have been.
No more of this drivel about Bolshevism/Nazism, please.
My reading of the Senate is that the Democrats stand to gain seven Senate seats – Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska – or eight if Al Franken wins Minnesota. Am I missing anything?
Management, I think ShowsOn calling McCain a neo-Nazi should also have been snipped. It was a highly offensive comment.
He was a socialist, you can’t talk about him.
333-155 now with CO, NM, IA, OH, VA, FL all flipped
Popular vote at 51-48 after 65%
SNIP: Tedious bickering deleted – The Management.
Adam, IF management wasn’t going to snip the comment I complained about 7 weeks ago, the ShowsOn comment won’t go either.
Goodness, the American anthem always makes me joyously tearful.
MSNBC staff laugh at a statement released by Hillary Clinton where she tries to add herself to the win.
CA will blow that out as the night progresses
GP, it depends what you classify as ‘high quality’.
Are you joking?
Hillary has released a statement conceding but pointing out that anything could happen between now and the Inauguration Day.
SNIP: Whinge deleted – The Management.
Ah, something GP and I can agree on.
I agree , that ShowsOn comment crosses many of our community’s sacred boundarys
Deleted now Adam, along with the stupid comment by GP that provoked it. Seeing as this is a big day and I’m especially busy at the moment, would GP and ShowsOn please be kind enough to stop behaving two year olds.
No 842
Not constantly stuttering, reasonably high-res and decent sound.
Move on please, ShowsOn.
Oh god here come the Kennedy comparisons.
Let him do something first ffs.
No 843
No, I’m not. It’s one of the world’s most emotionally powerful anthems in my view.
SNIP: Commentary on moderation deleted. I’ll say it again: move on, please. Last warning – The Management.
Adam
“Ah, something GP and I can agree on”
This is not a historic day for Obama , it is a historic day ….GP , Adam and th amigo Ron all agreed on something …….and without qualifation to boot
All jokes, bolshevism and other nonsense aside, we have all viewed an historic day that will have longlasting influence on the world.
Sure the vote will blow out some when CA is counted, but it still won’t be anywhere near the kind of landslide margins Reagan or Roosevelt got.
Fox news showed Oprah in the Chicago rally audience. She might be giving away free gifts to all Obama voters!
367 looks to be the magic number
Gotta laugh – the “apologise to the pollsters” thread on freerepublic got pulled…
Simon, you need to quit commenting on NC lest you keep on getting proved wrong! Obama back up by 30k now.
At least Oprah got on the Obama bus early on. Gotta give her that.
385 the total if Obama gets all of the outstanding states vis a vis CNN’s count which I am using.
Winner is nearest to but NOT going over.
List of our guesses ….. will post winner in the next few hours/days/depends on what it takes to count it …. current EV total on the deck is 333, so I am only cutting and pasting those at 333 and above …
Hugo O 338 Y MO VA
Evan14 O 338 Y MO
Nick of McEwen O 338 N MO
Gusface O 348 N MO CO
Enjaybee O 349 Y MO NV
An Cu O 349 CA
Sondeo O 350 Y MO CO
Dyno O 352 N MO CA
worktorule O 353 N MO CA
Stewart J O 353 N MO
ExPat Follower O 353 N MO CA/OR/WA/HI
Grog O 364 Y MO FL
David Walsh O 364 Y MO CA
Peter Fuller O 364 Y MO CO
Ron O 364 Y MO CA
William O 375 Y MO
Julie O 376 Y MO CO
BH O 376 Y MO FL
Yo ho ho O 394 Y MO FL
The astonishing amount of white people in the audience is one of the many indicators that race will finally be taking a back seat in American politics.
851, he already has …… now he can move on to do even more ….
I don’t think there’s been evidence in recent years that was ever in the front seat.
Anti-Americans present might note that Obama’s election will do more to restore American dominance in the world than any number of missiles or aircraft carriers. The US is always most dominant when Democrats are in power, because they can appeal to the progressive hopes of the world. To be fair to McCain I think he also would have been a strong moral leader, but Obama now has an opportunity for global moral leadership greater than anyone since JFK has had. (Leadership backed up, of course, by missiles and aircraft carriers when needed.)
367 looking good, 364 without Montana…
The white vote was statistically tied in national exit polls.
Kerry lost the white vote by 10%
Yes he’s won and “United a nation” (51-48, quite unified) but I mean in terms of “Putting American on the right track”.
No, but it doesn’t need to be
Al @ 860. I am giving up. (I at least more or less got Wilson County right: O’s on 52.something% there.) I defy anyone to pinpoint for me how in the course of counting less than 2% of the votes, with the many counties that were supposedly 100% counted already off the table, it was arithmetically possible for Obama to go from 20k down to 30k up.
Fair dinkum, they seem to be just making numbers up there.
Hopefully an end to Karl Rove type electioneering.
Are there really any anti-Americans present here? I didn’t think anti-Americans would take such a close interest in an American election.
That’s a landslide, my definition is 359+ which is 2:1 margin.
I see that nobody predicted 367. I don’t think anyone was expecting Obama to pick up Montana
No 866
Adam, saying that the US is always more dominant with the Democrats blatantly ignores Ronald Reagan, who was influential in destroying communism and still remains one of the most popular presidents in history.
That aside, I agree that the US will most certainly gain in stature now that the imbecile, George Bush, will be exiting after 8 disastrous years.
I agree
He can hardly be worse than Bush.
Adam 827
Absolutley agree there is a link between confidence and the economy; the mere fact that Bush has been still in office but impotent has been harmful. A new leader witha clear mandate for change shoudl turn the mood around a bit. In that respect I’m glad tht, regardless of who won, it was a nice clear-cut result. The last thing the world needed was more uncertainty.
If Palin is the pick next time it will return.
But Obama won’t promote stupid wedge issue propositions like Bush did in 2004.
juliem – what was the tipping state?
Yeah it was noted. The Americans elect THEIR President. They don’t elect the President of the world. It’s going to take more than one election to change the status quo of America being the “world police”, especially when Obama’s shown no indication that he wants to stop trouncing around the world.
The USSR had a completely basked case economy by 1980. It was going to fall apart sooner or later, Reagan just ensured it was sooner.
Is this anti-Americanism?
I’d imagine it’s an acknowledgment of reality ShowsOn
I agree. But some people construe any strident criticism of Bush as anti-Americanism.
MO must be very close to being called. Obi is 3% up with 16% to go.
Barack delivering victory speech now.
Adam 866
Agree again and a very good comment. Obama has a great opportunity here. Those who think that military strength alone solves problems are why groups like Al Quiada still recruit new members after a six year “war on terror”. The British army in Malaya showed fifty years ago that you don’t win guerilla wars by blowing up somoene else’s home.
Michelle saved her hottest dress for last.
Shows
“But some people construe any strident criticism of Bush as anti-Americanism.”
only the uneducated ones
Juliem #826
“GP @ 823, you are biased”
So ar you ….get reel ….GP is entitled to make his right leaning views (a subject on which we differ & hav long had debates on )
SNIP: No commentary on moderation please, including commentary on commentary – The Management.
California/Washington/Oregon/Hawaii all in one go I think
My screen has McCain leading in MO.
What …you worry about something 8 weeks ago …..instead of Obama winning You should understand certain boundaries of reasonableness and your personal attack yesterday questioning Sarah Palin’s pregnancy and your mates comments on nnazi’s breech those Perhaps reconsider]
Boring. Listen to Obama.
http://www.foxnews.com/video2/live.html?chanId=1
Watch victory speech here.
Yes, Obama to win NC, ID and MT, McCain to win MO
I’ve gotta admit it – I’m tearing up.
Adam
You’re right. MO will go to McCain IMHO.
History in the making.
MT is the Dawson of 2008.
This one’s for the true believers!
No 900
Shutup Keating.
hahaha love it
To Adam in Canberra, the Finnagins and Greensborough Growler what were your predictions a year ago……. Your absolute silly comments then, in the end a person has won who will inspire us all to have a better world.
Watch out Adam a socialist and Muslim is president. Stupid stuff.
Reagan was a dill GP, he ripped apart the welfare net and created signifcant increases in division and poverty. He was just another celeb who cared for the rich.
2.51pm. Fox reports Virginia went 60-39 to McCain among white voters, but 92-8 among black voters.
William is that right Virginia went 92-8 to McCain or should it be Obama
No 903
Reagan wasn’t a dill marky, he ended a regime that murdered and starved its people.
I thought you only got bitter like that if you lost marky mark
From one angle, you can see that Obama has a bullet-proof shield around him.
In the Senate, it looks like Franken and Coleman in MN will go to a runoff, possibly the same in Oregon and Martin is making a late run to hold Chambliss under 50% in Georgia. We could have 3 more Senate elections in a few months to set up 60 seats for the Dems. Also rumours that there’s a lot of uncounted pre-votes in GA.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17894973/detail.html
Yes, Dovif, 92-8 to Obama among black voters.
My predictions were indeed incorrect, and I congratulate those who whose predictions were better than mine. (I never said Obama was a socialist or a Muslim, just for the record.)
It’s getting a bit over the top now.
I’d say runoff elections would favour the Republicans wouldn’t they?
Those are the “rearview mirror” style teleprompters that he is reading from.
not if Obama sends his machine down there.
Does MN have a runoff law? It’s not automatic, it depends on state law.
I think that was more a wind shield / teleprompter shield thingy. If it had been a bulletproof shield it wouldnt have been only on a few sides.
JESSE JACKSON IN TEARS!
What an EXCELLENT acceptance speech
…..
My kids are home from school and I simply can not explain to them, especially the 10yo, what this means and why it is so special … my 10yo though understands a bit as he noted, “in 8 years, I can vote for the President too” …. (kids are dual citizens from birth through both parents ) …….
yes, dear (to my 10yo), yes you can
I think Reagan was a dill, but he wasn’t evil. Also unlike Bush he knew his limitations and picked some smart foreign policy and defence types to run things under him. Not so in finance, where Reagan was a disaster. But the USSR was in even worse shape, so it didn’t change the outcome.
I get bitter when people begin to get personal with comments and personal in regards to candidates, argurment should be based on facts not spurious claims.
Which regime was that Itep..
Pretty decent speech.
I wonder if Rudd will call Obama to congratulate him?
Too soon?
Where are the kids! Send on the kids!
Lulie @ 917
That’s so very touching.
We we all remember this day for a long, long time.
Yay the kids!
Dam* ….. I want Swing Lowe’s tickets ……. hope he has a good report to give in the next few days ;-D
Obama is a fine orator – in places he seemd to respond to the crowd very skillfully. How much of that speech was off the cuff? Obviously some references were scripted, but not all I suspect.
I didn’t like the part about “We will again be leaders in the world”.
Why do they have runoff Senate elections? What are the rules?
Will not get a better speech.. and all of the cuff. Incredible.
Well it’s a fact, Oz, so get used to it.
Grog, anything on the west coast …
CA/OR/WA .. they called them all at once …. Hawaii is 2 hours behind the west coast ….
The rules vary from state to state. GA has a runoff law, but not all states do.
Tears… I’m such a softie!
That was weird. Like in church when the congregation has to respond with “amen” or “peace be upon you” or whatever – only this time it was “yes we can”.
Crazy ‘mericans…
Actually i agree with you OZ the part about we are the best nation in the world always rankles me.
The winning candidate must get at least 50% of the vote.
Did he say “best” or “leader”?
Will the new President act to ensure any “balanced reporting” legislation is vetoed?
It’s not inevitably. It’s only a “fact” because he’s going to make it so.
America’s not going to be a super-power for much longer but they don’t want to accept it and are going to be dragged kicking and screaming into the basket cases of the world. K maybe that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but it would be better for them if they focussed internally on their own problems. But their arrogance is such that they won’t ever accept it.
I highly doubt that was off the cuff.
But it was a very good speech.
I think they will remain a super power, but there will be other super powers in 10 years like China and maybe India.
Ron @ 890,
I didn’t tell him he shouldn’t post his views
. I didn’t tell you you shouldn’t post your views 
. I merely gave my opinion on the content of your views.
As has been noted all along this campaign, you are entitled to your views. I, however, am not obligated to agree with them
( nor are you with mine )
No 928
He had teleprompters marky marky.
If Obama can act as well as he speaks, he may be a good thing for America.
I hope the Republicans do a lot of soul searching…they will be in the wilderness for some time.
Congratulations to President-elect Obama.
I just hope we dont forget that John McCain is a decent man and an honourable one at that. His concession speech was very gracious and humbling i think he deserves some credit.
You would only step up to lead if you thought you’d do it better than anyone else. If you asked Obama if he thought America was the best country in the world, obviously he would say yes.
Anyway the world doesn’t need a “leader”. Come on, we’re all a bunch of closet pinko’s here, I don’t think any of you are going to say that American power in the international sphere since the end of WW2 has had a net positive effect?
And Ronald can have his own opinions, but not his own facts.
Adam is of course correct. The US will get renewed authority around the world with Obama as President, both in a political and moral authority sense. Their lack of credibility and support from other Western countries will be instantly turned around with goodwill.
I for one, welcome America back to the fold of civilised, decent countries.
Lucy on the Crikey blog reader comments says: “STOP ASKING PETER VAN ONSELEN WHAT HE THINKS BLACK AMERICANS ARE THINKING “
They can think they’re the big leaders if they want to. It does noone any harm.
I view international power as a zero-sum game. So while India and China (And others) rise, America will naturally diminish.
910,
8 more years of it Adam
……
Net positive over the last 60 years? Yes I think it has. With some major screw ups along the way, such as Vietnam and Iraq II.
I am, most emphatically.
I just hope Obama can do what he says because he’ll let down many people if he doesnt deliver.
No 947
I’m kinda getting sick of Van Onselen popping his head up everywhere.
I don’t see it that way. I back the Fareed Zakaria thesis, we are entering a post-American world, not because America is sinking, but because other countries are rising.
The world recession may temporarily slow that, but it won’t stop it.
It does if they try and prove it, which they inevitably will.
I suggest you ask the people of South America, Asia, Africa, the Middle-East and Eastern Europe if US leadership has done them any “harm”.
The most truthful and important part of Obama’s victory speech was when he said (and I’m paraphrasing from memory):
“The real genius of America is that we can change.”
That was a clear message to both America, and the rest of the world.
No 952
I concur.
You know how Howard used to attack Keating for “navel gazing” about Australian identity?
Well listen to CNN, MSNBC, FOX et al. America is a succesful nation because it CONSTANTLY thinks about what America IS as a nation and as a people.
GP and Adaam
its about time you got a room
It’s a combination of both, but like I said, very rarely in human history have we lived in a multi-polar world and I don’t see America retaining its power and influence as the rest of the world, including India and China, rise.
I’m sure it looks like that from a comfortable Australian arm-chair view, but there have been more “stuff-ups” than Vietnam and Iraq II. This doesn’t necessarily mean simple overt warfare.
960,
Gus, maybe the Obama campaign can pay for it?
I’m upset no one got my Rudd phonecall joke.
Or maybe it just wasn’t funny. =(
Oz, I think you should stop reading solely from John Pilger’s anti-American playbook.
No 962
Unfortunately, I am not a homosexual.
TED STEVENS LOSES!
Alaskans do their state proud.
OH tightened up alot 50/49 72% ….anyone got ater % vote count
PRETEND!
My response was going to be “Obama may leak that Rudd asked to borrow his speech writers”.
I wonder if he’ll get a Bush pardon.
That can be the next tipping game!
I’m putting money on OJ Simpson.
GP 965 – I’m just as pleased about that as you are.
IN and NC both have Obama up by 15,000 with 99% counted. McCain might still win with all those postals from military servicemen who live in NC.
I don’t think the polls have closed in AK – where are these figures coming from?
Glen 943
That was gracious and to be fair I agree on McCain. He gave it his best shot and leaves with honour intact. He was no Carl Rove. The external circumstances of the campaign gave him little chance, as I suggested last night. Surely all the republicans must know the blame for this one belongs to a Texan…
Definitely a net positive effect. Plenty of negatives along the way of course.
Ah you all suck.
I suggest you try living in a country who’s democratically elected government has been replaced dictator hand-picked by the US. It isn’t fun.
Of course that would cloud my judgement somewhat, but on balance I think the countries that have been successively rooted, socially, politically and economically, the wars started and the people killed outweigh something like South Korea.
Back to work.
My God, The Onion is actually The Australian
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/hillary_clinton_resumes
No 975
Too much John Pilger for you Oz.
Can anyone point me to any hard facts on the Alaskan Senate race?
965, Gus nor I were implying that at all ….
we thought you ought to take your non obama lovefest off blog
Talcum congratulates Obama.
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=528048
Juliem
I was
Frank, good to hear
… thanks for that, much appreciated 
A commendable comment by Mr Turnbull.
The embematic result of the night is the Senate race in OR. A well-regarded moderate Republican Senator, a good fit for the liberal Republican tradition of the state, defeated solely because of the trashing of the GOP brand by Bush and Co.
Oh, ok gus, I missed that then, but then you can take all of the flak
… i wasn’t going that angle at all …..
Agree with Dario – a net positive from the USA. We shouldn’t forget tht they rebuilt europe (Marshall Plan) and agreed to trade liberalisation with China that allowed a fifth of the worlds population to greatly improve their quality of life.
The polls are still open in AK, so all you could have is exit polls.
No 986
Another voice of reason. We are yet again in agreement Socrates.
Counting the reruns is there any cahnce the dems will get a “fillibuster-proof” senate? (I presume that is 60).
We are down to this group now ….
Ron, your 364 is looking pretty good about now
Gusface O 348 N MO
Enjaybee O 349 Y MO
An Cu O 349
Sondeo O 350 Y MO
Dyno O 352 N MO
worktorule O 353 N MO
Stewart J O 353 N MO
ExPat Follower O 353 N MO
Grog O 364 Y MO
David Walsh O 364 Y MO
Peter Fuller O 364 Y MO
Ron O 364 Y MO
William O 375 Y MO
Julie O 376 Y MO
BH O 376 Y MO
Fairs fair GP. I can still remember hearing Killen speak when I was in high school to know that not all Liberals are evil
I wouldn’t care for all of Labor to be judged on the NSW right either.
No the Dems can’t win 60 Senate seats. They didn’t win KY, GA or MS. If they win MN (a big if) I think they will have 59, counting Lieberman as a Dem.
No 992
A bit of creative accounting there Adam.
*gone*
US FA thoereticaly will regain moral leadership after bush’s trashing , but wonder with all this uphoria whether expectations match reality of reel world politic
And worse I still wonder when US Liberal Media (and most but not all Obama supporters here) will realize there is an “o” in Obama’s brilliant oratory seeming to reflect “Liberal” perceptions rather than what he actualy says minus th nuances & ‘hope’ words
Will th Palestinains still be dansing in th streets if a contigous separate Palestine State is still way off ? Will th iraqi’s still be dansing in th streets when US combat troops ar gone but US bases and US “non combat” personel & “military advsors” ar still there ? Will th Kyoto lovers still be dansing in th streets after Copenhagen doen’t deliver th needed 25% cut by 2020 ? Will th radicals in Pakistan still control th north & worry th World they may be th inheritors of Pakistan’s nuke arsenels ? Will th 45 million US with no health insurance & th 30 million underinsured still be dansing in th streets when there kids cann’t be taken for medicol attention as there parents hav no money for health insuranse ?
Celebrate Bush’s going , yes ….but Obama HIMSELF though those “o” words has raised that bar of expectation too high ….and th Liberal Media and especialy th flock actualy believe those ‘o” words of reel change & tink th above & other things will be fixed …but come 3 years and look around and Obama may be judged on that rather than my view it was bullsh.t perception imagery and th reality will be moral authority to nudge nudge incrementally and only in some areas …and some imperceptabbly except to th informed
“but come 3 years and look around and Obama may be judged on that rather than my view it was bullsh.t perception imagery and th reality will be moral authority to nudge nudge incrementally and only in some areas …and some imperceptabbly except to th informed”
Sounds exactly like what people say about Mr Rudd.
If Ron wins the tipping contest, I for one am going to demand a recount!
OH still very tightoning , only 61K in it at 73% , 50/49…seems MCain late campaig /demographics ar fighting th overall trend Wish i damn given my gut feel on this financially ruined State , ALL th Polls said Obama easily reely and logic on finacials said so also but despite Posters here calling htem that terrible redneck name (dems elitists) did tink voters struggle on decison …wanting a change but not a NE Liberal (now before I get anti hillary posts back…yep hillary would win this easily BUT SO ALSO would biden and a swarm of Democrats that talk there bread & butter lingos
Also MT could be surprise poaket in NW as was red flavour population but changing …obama would lot of work in th primarys there ….must hav left some decisive impressions
left bit off , but still thought Obama would win it on momentum but closer than predicted
“I just hope Obama can do what he says because he’ll let down many people if he doesnt deliver.”
Haha, the right-wing posters in this forum are now hoping Obama implements his agenda.
Or just sour grapes.
Good times!
National vote now out to 52-47, still with only 23% counted in CA
I was starting to think they’d called Ohio too soon, but the margin just blew back out to 130k at 83%, so thats looking fairly safe again.
Just arrived in my inbox
Over 1000 posts in 12 hours. Nice work people!
Did Kevin07 manage more or less than Obama08?
997 Dio,
there are more than one of you on 364
jj, where are you mate? did you see the acceptance speech?
“Sounds exactly like what people say about Mr Rudd.”
Well i tink there comparison ar alittle out…my examples and those implicit by thems of perceived expectations of obama ar somewhat diferent to rudds promised quite detailed Agenda of social econamic fiscal & FA CC programs he especialy outlined which he’s commensed delivering /starting and on which we can reely measure outcomes against those campaign programs outlined
No 1003
Tell Mr Obama to block any legislation that impinges the freedom of the press.
Wow Julie… you got a personal e-mail from Barack?
I of course see a few shameful outcomes in ballot initiatives that restore my lack of confidence in the American people yet again.
Surely they should call NC and IN for Obi now – 364 plus Montana/Missouri possibility [i don't believe anything in Nebraska is possible?]
No-one picked 367! And all those on 364 picked Missouri to go Obama! Bloody hell…
“Wow Julie… you got a personal e-mail from Barack?”
I’m sure the same email went out to each and every registered Democrat subscriber…
Yes, gays didn’t fare well tonight
“Yes, gays didn’t fare well tonight”
Probably those who voted Democrat this time around felt they needed to cleanse themselves and balance their Obama vote out with support for some conservative ballot initiatives.
I really hope citizen-initiated ballot initiatives never happen in Australia…
bob1234
Posted Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 5:27 pm | Permalink
“Wow Julie… you got a personal e-mail from Barack?”
I got one as well tanking th Amigos for our faithful support amongst this heathen Site
Pauline Hanson wanted to introduce citizen initiated referenda. Thank god the main political parties have more sense than that.
997
well, I’ll grant you a recount as long as I get an interpreter
No 1013
There was a democratic decision and homosexuals must accept it.
Has anyone found a lost Bradley Effect? I swear it was hanging around these parts a few days ago
Missouri looks soooooo close. Once Douglas county comes in for a few thousand net votes to McCain, and Jackson and St.Lois come in – the results will only be a thousand or so apart.
Provisional Votes anyone?
No 1014
What is wrong with citizens-initiated referenda? It gives power to the people.
They will accept it and bide their time. It’s only a matter of time. It doesn’t mean the outcome is any less shameful. Just because a majority supports a proposition doesn’t make it morally right.
No 1019
Possum, can you please plainly concede your allegiance to Obama.
No 1021
It is not immoral to ban homosexual marriage. SNIP: Comment deleted to spare its writer embarrassment – The Management.
Because we have a parliamentary democracy where we vest power in an elected parliament to make decisions on our behalf. I’m strongly against laws made on a purely ‘majority decides’ basis. Sometimes the majority doesn’t know best.
That’s your opinion GP, I have my own. I think it’s shameful and am happy to say it.
Especially re: gay marriage.
Only until the next ballot…
You first GP
somtimes government needs to prevent the people from doing what they want
GP 1018
There is a school of thought in political philosophy (which I support) that foundational aspects of human rights should be enshrined in the constitution and not subject to voters whim. For example, if 51% of Germans in the 30s voted to limit the rights of Jews, it would still be bad. Hence I am strongly in favour of equal treatment for homosexuals in all respects. Unless one can show that their lifestyle harms others, it should be permitted.
Tyranny of the majority is never a good idea.
Especially looking at some of the polls in The Daily Telegraph and how quickly the popular mood changes.
you are an obscene abomination GP
No 1024
The same argument can be made about members of parliament and the government: they do not always know best.
So long as a high bar is set such that frivolous referenda cannot occur, I see no problem with them.
I thought that the definition of marriage was defined in the constitution and thus couldn’t be changed by a statute?
California ballot measures not looking good, although the odious requirement for parental notification of minors’ abortions should fail.
William, I am not embarrassed.
Men are biologically incompatible for procreation.
Oh GP – are you still miffed that I called PA this morning off 40,000 votes in 5 counties and was right?
And Virginia off 7
I saw your grumpiness and skepticism hiding in the Crikey stream!
It’s the demographics mate – they nailed McCain in the first hour.
Oh, and “allegiance”? – that’s a mighty strong word. For me it was like the last Australian election where the more powerful force was knowing what I didnt like rather than baraking (boom tish!) for what I did.
Oz, it is defined in the Commonwealth Marriage Act.
Oz 1033
Thats the point – many constitutions (including the US) are old documents that didn’t even originally grant equal rights to women, slaves or in this case homosexuals. Hence there is a need to amend the law.
378 max possible for Obama now, Alaska called as expected for McCain … waiting on Montana, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina …..
Well, things were tight in King County, Texas.
McCain: 151 93.2%
Obama: 8 4.9%
Other: 3 1.9%
The eight Democrat voters have been identified and shot. The three other voters were forced to do the shooting (before shooting themselves).
GP 1035
Biology is not the only reason people get married. Otherwise you would have to prohibit childless marriages, and force marriage upon unmarried couples with children.
1009, I’m on the distribution list
…… but so are millions of others, so it isn’t quite as exclusive as you might think … its the campaign organization mate 
No 1036
Possum, I already accepted McCain would lose a while ago.
I simply think that you should disclose your biases.
Or people who are infertile.
In any case I don’t see the point in having a debate on the rights and wrongs of homosexuality. Experience tells me such debates never change anyone’s mind.
1015, since when are you on Barack’s distribution list? I know you picked 364, but you don’t impress me as a Democrat and/or a Labour sympathizer
……
I don’t think the sole purpose of marriage is for procreation. On that logic, people who aren’t married and have kids are an “abomination”. You may think that, but no one is forcing you to do. I don’t get why people pretend that if gay marriage is legalised they will somehow be forced to marry someone of the same gender. If you don’t want too, then don’t? How does a gay couple getting married effect you in the slightest?
In the US?
Back to the election, why do we want the Dems to have the ability to stifle Debate? I think having to work with the Republicans, or at least listen to another voice will be a positive. Plus, if gives them a scapegoat.
BTW, the positive impact of the change on the economy has already started. Our sharemarket is up 2.9% this afternoon.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/shares-get-election-boost-20081105-5hve.html
No juliem… it’s not true. It was a message straight from Barack himself.
One thing I’m really happy about today (other than the obvious) is the absolute thumping the vile Marilyn Musgrave has gotten in Colorado-4.
Is it an absolute given that Pelosi & Reid retain their leadership positions? Would hope some fresh faces could replace them…
1044
Yes. In any event, I only disagree with homosexual marriage. They are entitled to complete equality in other legal scenarios.
1025, agreed ltep in spades, hearts, clubs and diamonds ………
( I know people of that ilk and thus I’ve empathy for them )
I agree with you on the ‘fillibuster’ proofing Oz. Government control of the Senate was rubbish in Australia and I wouldn’t wish it on another country.
I do GP, it’s on my About page. I clearly disclose where I sit on the political spectrum
I know that, I thought it was illegal to change the constitution via a citizen initiated ballot. I thought only the legislature could put that too the vote. I think it has something to do with “constitutional revisions” and “constitutional amendment”. They’re different things and one has to come from the legislature, not the citizenry. But I’m not a lawyer so I don’t know which is which.
No 1054
You haven’t answered the question: are you an Obama supporter? Are you the “Yes We Can” psephologist?
No 1052
If I were to revert to total libertarianism, I would argue that the government should deregulate marriage and allow people to construct private marriage contracts however they wish.
GP,
while not speaking for Possum, he promised me several weeks to a month ago that i could share his corner of the tree tonight …. and you know where I sit on the political spectrum
…. it isn’t in our branch of the PB tree 
I’m an econometrician, not a psephologist GP. And like any good econometrician, it is the net benefit to human welfare that always guides my path.
lol @ Kevin Rudd talking about MLK.
1058 should read “isn’t in your branch of the PB tree”
… I’ve a 10yo distraction sitting next to me at present 
No 1059
Possum, you should become a politician. Never have I witnesses so much obfuscation.
Have you not watched question time?
It’s obscene, isn’t it GP!
Ted Stevens leads 49.4-45.4 in Alaska with 37 per cent reporting. Does anyone know better what’s going on here?
What happened to our favourite, Bachmann?
I think it’s fairly obvious where possum sits on the political spectrum (well obvious enough). I don’t think anyone should be forced to disclose that sort of information, regardless of their position.
GP – I can say with all honesty that I preferred Obama over Clinton but not until I heard him do a pointy headed interview with some radio station near the end of the primary season. Before that I was pretty ambivalent about both of them.
I’ve never liked McCain, comic strip politicians aren’t my thing. The Republican party as it has stood since the revolution of Gingrich has been a disgrace to human development.
Palin was the epitomy of everything that was wrong with it. Am I glad that the Republicans have become mince meat?
Faark yeah! Am I glad that Obama won?
Same again.
Does that make me biased? No, it makes me have an opinion. But most importantly, does it affect my number crunching?
No, there is only one kind of maths and every assumption, technical spec of otherwise I make to any calculations are upfront and transparent.
Ted Stevens is obscene
The equally vile Bachmann has won Minnesota-6 without too much trouble. The margin was closer than last time though.
Cmon admit it poss
you’re a COMMIE
or is that POMMIE
whatever we still luvs ya
Though on the subject of Minnesota, Al Franken is only behind by a mere 3000 votes in the Senate race.
Michigan to allow medical marijuana, stem cell research according to CNN.
Grant I have him trailing by 136 votes.
No 1068
Thank you for that candid admission.
Why do they have uncontested positions in the Senate?
It’s quite hilarious that the trots are now using the “obscene” word more than I ever did.
McCain 600 in front in MO with 99%
Only 1/3 of the Senate was up for vote.
I’m talking of Arkansas where a Democrat was elected unopposed.
It’s not hilarious… it’s just the smartest way to stop you using it
No Republican, but there was a Green Party candidate.
Why no Republican? Good question.
Ron – where are you getting your numbers from? I have three sources and they’re all saying different things. Might as well add a fourth!
1073,
Yes, yes, yes … voted for both of those
…… Nice that Michigan is progressive 
William,
apparently Ted Stevens holds court in Alaska or something, I saw the CNN commentator earlier on call him “godfather” ….. seriously, they did ….
1078,
I bloody hope that it won’t come down to my sister’s vote or I will be really pissed off ….. where are you jj when we need you? got to talk some sense into the rellies ….
Prop 10 in California is another reason by ballots aren’t such a flash idea.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/California-Sends-Pickens-Packing-Prop/story.aspx?guid={91C223A6-F20C-4993-B8BB-8D21C618748F}
It turns out the Republicans just decided not to run a candidate in Arkansas for the Senate election. I find this utterly bizarre. You’d imagine they’d have a fairly good chance of being elected?
I also think it’s rude CNN says the Dem was elected ‘uncontested’ when a Green Party candidate contested it and received 25%.
Possum
#1083
Posted Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 6:16 pm | Permalink
Ron – where are you getting your numbers from? I have three sources and they’re all saying different things. Might as well add a fourth!
Barrack has given me a direct line…in appreciation of my amigo support converting you guys to him ….so my 1972 gough adding machine can keep up with yous computer experts …tink MO is going down to wires
The media like reinforcing the idea of a two party system. A third party candidate managed to get 20% of the vote in 1992, but it’s still a “two party system”. The more you say that, and the more you ignore other candidates, no what result they get, the more you keep it a two party system. Two party systems aren’t good for anyone except the two parties. But I accept Adam and GP will be in agreement here as well saying that they “provide stability” or some such.
msnbc awards Indiana to Obama
NYT has McCain 1,426,779, Obama 1,426,381 in Missouri, 0.7 per cent of precincts still to report. If Obama wins here and the other close states stay as they are, I will have tipped every state correctly.
heh! Ron – it’ll become all about the provisional votes (which I think are new to MO this time).
One would imagine a few thousand of them so we might not know the result in MO for a week!
If this election is like others in terms of provisional votes, then NC is Dem, IN is Dem and MO will most likely go Dem if the provisionals are yet to be tallied (which one would expect to be the case). The second congressional district in Nebraska seems to have sqeaked late into the Republican column and Montana is gone for the Dema meaning the most likely result would appear to be 375 EV’s.
“0.7 per cent of precincts still to report”
do we know where those prescincys ar and there voting history
Oooh, well done Billbowe!
Just finished work. A lot of very very happy librarians in Tassie right now and proudly ungracious in victory.
Indeed, and a much higher standard deviation compared to most countries.
Perot was not a “third party candidate.” He was an independent who created a facade party to meet various legal requirements for registration and fundraising, just as George Wallace did in 1968. In both cases the “party” disappeared as soon as the candidate did. There is no viable third party in the US. The Libertarians are nutters and the Greens have not recovdered from the Nader debacle in 2000.
GP, calling us ‘trots’ for not sharing your view is offensive. I hope William Bowe picks it up and warns you (again).
I recall Obama vigorously campaigning for that lucrative Tasmanian librarian demographic.
yes Enemy Marsupial , its 364 now plus th 11 e/v’s cliff hanger in MO
Apart from wondering where William has snuck those 0.7% of prescincts , has there been any Media comment on NBC , CNN , ABC etc reports about whether or not provisions hav been counted and estimated number of dems
Senate counting still continues here.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/senate/votes.html
No such luck, Bob.
I wasn’t referring to the “party” in a physical sense, but “party” as in himself, as a third candidate. I agree there’s no “third party” but the Republicans and Democrats are not invincible.
I don’t know if anyone noted this while I was away, but MN does not have a runoff law. If Coleman finishes ahead of Franken, he wins.
Trotsky (If that’s what GP is alluding too) was responsible for putting down the Konstradt Mutiny by massacring 10,000 sailors and as head of the Red Army he’s surely responsible for the deaths of plenty of counter-revolutionaries.
What exactly is the yardstick here? Nazi, no. Bolshevik, no. Trotskyist, yes. Peronist?
No count yet for Arthur County, Nebraska.
Shortly after the last vote was cast, a deer was spotted on the periphery of the voting centre.
Oz, no matter where I draw the line, it will be open to tiresome persons to tell me I’ve got it wrong.
Obama is 51 to 48 in Douglas county (Omaha). Doesn’t that mean he gets one vote? Someone please explainto me how we know when that one vote is “siphoned” off of the state total and goes to Obama. Thanks
Fair enough.
Here’s a reality check, top stories on CNN:
* Top U.S. general in Afghanistan to assess war
* China sentences 55 people over Tibet riots
* N. Korea: Kim Jong Il tours military units
* Mexico’s interior minister dies in plane crash
* Israel launches deadly airstrike in Gaza
* At least 20 people dead in German bus fire
* Congo fighting forces aid worker evacuation
* Rights group: Cluster bombs used in Georgia
* Iraqi official: U.S. considers security pact
* African refugee situation worsening, U.N. says
* Tycoon: Don’t jail wife who hired hitman
The race that stops the world?
He has to carry the Congressional District to get one ECV, not just the county. The CD is bigger than Douglas County, so I assume he has not carried it.
1111 ok then thanks for that
One for the Psephs: http://xkcd.com/500/
What’s this from Turnbull?:
Yep I guess the first thing any new US President would do is start wokring with the oppositon leader of Australia…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/05/2411329.htm?section=justin
Outstanding precincts in Missouri are in Christian county and very small Dunklin county, which have so far gone heavily Republican, plus 1% of St Louis County – which might be worth a decisive thousand of votes or so to Obama.
I intended to post some time ago, but when my effort didn’t appear, I waited in case it was in moderation.
I was concerned to agree with Glen that McCain’s concession was a fine speech, and indicated that he is probably a better human being than the partisanship of the campaign suggested. It lends weight to the theory that his running mate was imposed on him, and took his campaign down a particularly nasty and ultimately unproductive route. I haven’t said so before, but I have a good deal of respect for Glen. He hasn’t squibbed any battles over what has been a dismal period for his side of politics; he seldom stoops to the low blow, and then usually only in the face of severe provocation.
Obama’s speech was outstanding, capturing this astonishing moment in our history. (It’s ours because the US looms so large in our consciousness, and has such momentous impact on us all.)
Understandably I’m in a charitable mood this evening. I’ll content myself with the lovely lines from Dante that Freudenberg included in a speech by EGW:
“Thence we emerged and saw stars again.”
That beautifully encapsulates my benign mood, atm.