Best of luck to Barack Obama as well. However, the truly momentous and inspirational aspect of yesterday’s result was my almost perfect prediction of it, as published in Crikey last Friday. Obama has carried the erstwhile red states of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Florida and Indiana, with two states coming down to the wire: Missouri, where McCain leads by 5868 votes (0.2 per cent), and North Carolina, where Obama leads by 14,053 (0.4 per cent). I tipped Obama to gain all of these states and no more. I gather late counting of declaration votes is unlikely to change any leads, so it appears those 0.2 per cent of voters in Missouri have stood between me and my moment of destiny. Better luck next time, I guess. To those who tipped McCain victories or record-breaking Obama blowouts and find themselves wondering what my secret is, one simple piece of advice: believe the polls (or Intrade if you prefer – it will usually tell much the same story). They may not be perfect, but they will outperform your own “informed conjecture” well over 50 per cent of the time, no matter how clever you think you are.
If the last two states play out as expected, the final result will be 364 electoral votes for Obama against 174 for McCain, pending one complication: Nebraska, which along with solidly Democratic Maine divides its college votes by congressional district. Two of the three districts have stayed Republican, but in a third Obama trails by just 569 votes, and thus stands a chance to make it 365-173. In any event, the joint winners of the informal Poll Bludger tipping contest (thanks to Juliem for conducting this) will be David Walsh and Ron, who I gather will win a tie-breaker ahead of fellow 364 Club members Grog and Peter Fuller.
Finally, our good friends at UMR Research have published qualitative polling on Australians’ attitudes to the President-elect. Those who harbour an unfashionable element of cynicism about the great man might want to keep a sick bag handy.
780 Comments
“However, the truly momentous and inspirational aspect of yesterday’s result was my almost perfect prediction of it, as published in Crikey last Friday.”
Oh the modesty Mr Bowe.
Well done William on both your prediction and your very informative coverage of the whole long saga.
Continuing a theme jsut started at the end of the previous thread, I made the comment that the republicans didn’t just need to refocus themselves, but needed to stop pandering to their middle america base. Despite its history, this base is essentially the poorest and least progressive part of the USA, and the most needing to change. The problem is moral as well as economic: denial is not a virtue. The mid-west and south are America’s weakness, not its strength.
It was therefore sobering to see the reaction at republican blogs like Red State. never mind social analysis of the causes, sure enough there was denial of the result itself. This piece was typical of the attitude:
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/nov/05/obamas-2008-victory-in-perspective/
There is a need for profound change in the world if its current structures are to survive. These peopel do not seem capable of accepting that.
Can you change that to “baseless optimish” for my sake?
aargh “optimism”
William
Before you get too pleased with yourself, remember that Ron was absolutely perfect (unless juliem wins because of the last Nebraska EV). We all have to defer to Ron from now on.
Note that I said the following:
It sounds like I missed Julie tipping 365?
Dio
Nooooooooo
Damn Missouri… I, like Granpa Simpson, no longer recognise you!
Come on Nebraska!!!
Interesting to see that electoral-vote.com was absolutely right on the money as well… except for Montana, which he chose to label a tie instead of taking a stab at who would win.
This is what happens to fence-sitters kids, you lose your bragging rights. I myself lost money on this election (I remember being quite pleased with the ‘good odds’ I got on McCain much earlier in the year at $2.80. Oops.) You live you learn and, like Mr Mumble, I was a happy goose.
Election Projection has a roundup of the pundits’ accuracy here. Maybe you should make them aware of your prowess Master William?
It has been an exhausting two years since Kevin Rudd took over the labr leadership and Barack Obama declared his candidacy. Top job Poll Bludger!
Pew were pretty close to the money with their last prediction on the popular vote.
Good job William, we all know Missouri doesn’t really count
Oops. juliem chose to add 1 EV to William’s total, not Ron’s. That means that Ron looks like winning.
The living shall envy the dead.
“The horror, the horror.”
No William, I ended up saying 376, which was your and my pick originally (I picked it first several weeks ago) but at the 11th hour and 59th minute, I thought, ooopps, what about that one vote?
But even if I get that one vote, Missouri isn’t coming back
…….. so, I’m (like you, BH and Yo ho ho) over the mark ….. you said 375, BH and I 376 and Yo ho ho said 394. Did you pull those numbers, Yo ho ho, out of your backside? 
…..
Another bit of news today in the post election fallout but hardly surprising … the US Ambassador in Canberra (McCallum) is resigning. He didn’t indicate a date but said it would happen. Turns out McCallum is a political appointee and not a career foreign servant so he’s doing the “politically correct thing”.
In terms of predicative abilities, i feel it should also (as it was on the previous post) be pointed out that our colleague Kirribilli Removals prediced not only an Obama victory but also the financial collapse…
opps, #15 should read ‘376 “instead of 375, which was your and my pick originally” in the first paragraph, but I corrected it in the second
….. ….
news about McCallum is from today’s print edition of the Canberra Times … I picked up both Melbourne papers and the CT so have several to save for posterity …
Julie, it’s convention for ambassadors to resign their commission when a new administration comes in.
For the record and to clarify what I mis typed at least once above in case it isn’t clear to all this is what we had in the end ….
**Grog O 364 Y MO FL
David Walsh O 364 Y MO CA
**Peter Fuller O 364 Y MO CO
Ron O 364 Y MO CA
??William O 375 Y MO
??Julie O 376 Y MO CO
??BH O 376 Y MO FL
**Yo ho ho O 394 Y MO FL
** are definetely out. As it stands at present Ron and David are in on the “money”. William is in if Missouri turns around, Ron and David out. If Missouri AND Omaha turn, BH and I are in, others out.
Yo ho ho, you go have another glass of grog
…. (pardon the pun, Grog)
so close…
Bugger.
Yup, that’s correct, they all resign
Thanks, Max, I expected as much but wasn’t quite sure ….. Seems that this convention doesn’t extend to other countries though as Vanstone is still in Rome as I recall …..
No, it’s just a US thing I think
I think the difference is that Rome, like most democracies, uses a parliamentarian system of government. This sort of governance is considered continuous and never-ending, even when different parties take control – hence in Australia Rudd didn’t overturn all appointees. The US is pretty unique in that they have an administration, it lasts for exactly four years and then they install a new administration (even if the President is re-elected it’s still considered new.)
Interestingly, if a President wins a second term in office in the US, all members of the original Cabinet hand in letters of resignation at the conclusion of term one so that they can either be re-appointed or not. Saves everyone the political and personal embarrassment of the President firing a member of his own Cabinet if he wants fresh blood.
I suspect the philosophy is the same here, saves Mr Obama from firing an ambassadors arse if he doesn’t like them which would create all kinds of international tension.
I stand by my baseless optimism.
I was 13 when Keating lost, 17 when Gore lost and 8 the last time the Hawks had won the flag. I’ve been used to losing.
November 24 and a certain AFL game this year have sent me over the top with optimism. I’m very much of the belief that anything is possible now.
I take it all four members of Club 364 got Missouri wrong, and thus arrived at 364 by tipping Indiana wrong as well? Can’t I (or Julie and BH depending on Nebraska) argue that I made one mistake rather than two, so I’m the king of the castle?
I have heaps of enthusiasm now
….. I was so down and out between 2000 and 2007/08 as having my feet legally in both countries; I had to endure one setback after another between both countries …..
K07 almost made up for Howard’s misadventures and Howard losing his seat was the icing on the cake. Australian half of my equation fixed up quick smart. Now, not only do we have Dems in Washington BUT they’ve broken down so many barriers by choosing this particular one. Now the US side of the equation is fixed up too
.
Btw, my AFL affliliation is blue and white; we had our last dip in 1999, I could use another one, but it isn’t going to happen anytime soon I don’t think
All 4 got Missouri wrong, correct. However, Ron and Dave said California or some variation thereof (the West Coast swing) which is what put Obama over the top.
Don’t know about the rest of you but my guess of 376 came about this way – the RCP notossupstates map + Missouri + Indiana + North Carolina + (at the very last minute, Omaha). I bloody forgot about Omaha until it was almost too late to change it.
26 correct with me William. My methodology was the intrade figure at the time plus either MO or IN… juliem asked me about MO, and, like a fool, I thought, yeah why not.
William,
If I recall, you were also pretty accurate at tipping the Oz election last year.
So my rule for tipping the next election is: follow WB – he seems to get a lot closer than all of the other mugs (Mumble included!!!)
P.S. If my previous post doesn’t make sense, I apologise – I am slightly drunk atm (carry over from last night in Chicago…)
Pretty much the entire upper ranks of the US public service resign with the change of a President. Ambassadors, along with secretaries, undersecretaries, etc, are almost entirely partisan appointments. Some from the opposing party get through, but they tend to achieve that in spite of their party due to a particular talent.
Coleman has declared victory in MN with a lead of 460 votes out of 2.5 million. He’s trying to bluff Franken out of demanding a recount.
There must have been something seriously wrong with Franken’s campaign not to win in a liberal state like MN, which Obama carried in a stroll.
SL, Mumble tipped the last two federal elections nine months out, which is a higher order of achievement.
You wouldn’t say there was something wrong with Franken?
31 SL, what did you end up going with? As my warnings about cold weather didn’t materialize?
WB,
That’s true. However, his confidence in Obama losing from several months out must count against him. You picked the Oz election to within 1 seat (84 as opposed to 83 in reality) and the US election to within 1 state.
As for Franken, it’s Minnesota. If they can elect a former pro-wrestler as Governor, they can easily elect a comedian. Also, Coleman managed to beat a former vice-president in 2002 (Mondale) to win a seat from the Democrats in his first election.
Mumble was dismal in his prognostications.
William
You could certainly make that argument, just as Sarah Palin can make the argument that Africa is a country rather than a continent. We make our own reality.
Possibly running a comedian wasn’t a good idea.
Rumor mill of who is or is not being considered for various posts. Two names jumped straight out at me as IF those guesses come off, there will be 2 Kennedy connected folks in an Obama cabinet …..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/rumor-mill-what-could-an_n_140777.html
“They laughed when I said I was going to be a comedian. Well, they’re not laughing now!” – Bob Monkhouse
juliem,
It’s 74 F (or about 22 C) here in Chicago – so it’s not cold at all. Add to that the sheer number of people around Grant Park last night and it was actually quite warm. I ended up walking around in a light jacket and had a couple of vodkas as a night cap last night.
I have to admit, though – it’s been a once-in-a-lifetime experience to be here. I didn’t realise the importance of this election to the American psyche. All of the analysis here in the US has been about how this is a page turned in American history and how African-Americans can now tell their children that they too can become President one day. There was a queue here earlier today for the Chicago Tribune – just to get the front page saying Obama is present. It’s nothing like Australia last year – think about Labor’s jubilation last year and multiply it by 10 to get some idea of the joy amongst Chicagoans today…
*”just to get the front page saying Obama is president”
I bet Jesse Jackson is regretting dissing Obama during the campaign now. No nice embassy for him!
Franken perhaps wasn’t the ideal candidate, but Coleman (former Mayor of St Paul) is quite popular in Minnesota. He used to be a Democrat.
Even liberal states can elect Republican senators. Susan Collins was easily re-elected in Maine, which Obama also carried in a stroll. Her GOP stablemate Olympia Snowe, also from Maine, was re-elected 2 years ago in a landslide, despite the Republicans being seriously on the nose back then too. Both Maine senators are “moderates” (by Republican standards). Gordon Smith (GOP) looks like he might hang on in Oregon, which also went over to Obama in a big way. On the other side, some rusted-on Republican states that McCain won easily continue to re-elect Democratic senators, eg. Rockefeller (W.Virginia), Baucus (Montana), Johnson (S.Dakota). A lot of ticket-splitting goes on in US elections.
Don’t think so, he is down by 4,000 votes now
43, no worries, I knew exactly what you meant
…. My brother in Michigan sent me an article with heaps of pictures in it of various newspapers front pages from both around the country and around the world. It was good to see. I can well imagine, having lived there in Michigan for 43 years.
There was a map posted from a link on the thread just prior to this one that had the county by county breakdown of Rep. and Dem. votes. I loaded that and spent some time looking at it earlier. You want to talk about this being necessary to the psyche of the country? It was also necessary to the psyche of Ohio. That map shows Obama won only the various metro areas (Toledo, Columbus, etc.) around the state and the border counties with PA excepting the lower 2 or 3 where they border with WV. I’ve been in Ohio hundreds of times over the years. The black population in Ohio doesn’t live in the farms in the countryside. They live in the cities. It was the black population rising up and THEY delivered Ohio to Obama. No ifs ands or buts about it.
And in another postscript to that county map nationwide for the results? Guess which county had the biggest winning margin in the country [not percentage, but raw numbers winning margin]? Cook county
…..
Wish I had half your luck mate
{but I saw Clinton in 1992 so that isn’t a bad consolation prize}
Dario, on that one I’m glad to be wrong.
Another Dem pick-up. How’s Alaska looking?
kakuru @ 45, I saw on HP about 30 minutes ago (don’t know when it was first posted so don’t know if its new news or old news) that Oregon has been declared for the Democrat. They aren’t done counting YET but the counties where there are still outstanding votes are heavily Democratic counties.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/05/jeff-merkley-declared-win_n_141667.html
Stevens in front by 4,000 but there are still quite a few votes to count supposedly, and the Dem was even saying that his own vote hadn’t been counted yet so only time will tell.
“Possibly running a comedian wasn’t a good idea.”
Neither was running a black guy for President. But if you always ran the least risky candidate, where would you be? The ALP.
“I bet Jesse Jackson is regretting dissing Obama during the campaign now. No nice embassy for him!”
Yeah, but there’s a cozy Senate seat for his son.
It doesn’t look like Stevens can lose on the current figures. So if his conviction is upheld the Dems will have to expel him from the Senate and then there will be a special election which Palin can contest and probably win. It’ll be a cross between Mr Smith Goes to Washington and The Beverly Hillbillies.
#53
I thought if Stevens is expelled the governor appoints a replacement until a special election in 2010. Let me check who the governor of Alaska is…. Oh.
Well, of course in US elections the party doesn’t actually “decide” to run anyone. Anyone can run in the primary and if they win they’re the candidate. All very democratic, but the problem with letting your activist base choose your candidate is that they may well choose candidates that the swinging voters won’t vote for.
Yes the governor appoints a replacement, but apparently under AK law the special election is straight away, not in 2010 as I previously thought.
There are 40,000 absentee ballots to be counted and his lead is 4,000. I’m not sure which way absentee trends normally go in the US, but yes it would take a big swing to unseat him from here.
“but the problem with letting your activist base choose your candidate is that they may well choose candidates that the swinging voters won’t vote for.”
I still think a drovers dog could have won in 2007.
#56
Yes, it’s news to me too Adam. The 17th Amendment of the US constitution doesn’t specify *when* the special election has to be held in the event of the resignation (or expulsion) of a sitting senator. In most states the governor appoints a temporary senator, and the special election is held at the time of the next election – as in the Mississippi senate seat this year which Wicker won. But I gather Alaska does things differently. Might be a sticky legal issue…
It used to be the procedure in Alaska that the Governor appointed a new Senator when a vacancy takes place. However, when Senator Frank Murkowski was elected Governor in 2002, he appointed his daughter Lisa to the vacancy, and triggered a referendum in 2004 which changed the law. The Senate seat would now remain vacant until a special election could be held (like an Australian by-election).
Juliem
Here is that 3D map reference again:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/election/uscounties.html
I made the comment after seing this one that the republicans really have become a rural party and the dems an urban one. Its quite stark when you look at this map. But I later added that many of these rural areas are the ones that most need to change in terms of socail and economic structure to survive. For the republicans to “reinvent themselves” as credible to urban voters, they have to be willing to show ledership and challenge thsi group, not just pander to its prejudices. The days when the USA gained its strength from its rural economy are even longer gone than Australia’s nostalgic harking back to “riding on the sheeps back”. Both myths are false.
It’s a great map Socrates. Thanks for the link (spent a bit of time at work looking at it today!)
Regarding Stevens relection in Alaska – they’re clearly not too worried about that code of ethics nonsense up there. The other republican senator Frank Murkowski nominated his daughter to replace him in the senate when he became governor (before Palin). The law was subsequently changed to require special elections.
Sorry Ben I just saw your post. Doh! The amazing bit (to me) is that Murkowski was still elected! Alaska is sounding like a very safe cosy seat for a republican.
Socrates
Alaskan politics looks like a cesspit of slime and corruption. Palin, Stevens, Murkowsi and Young. Something is rotten in the state of Alaska.
Funnily enough, lots of neocons are advising Palin to stay in Alaska rather than go to the Senate so she can remain a “Washington outsider”. Sounds like BS to me.
“Alaska is sounding like a very safe cosy seat for a republican.”
Well they *did* elect Sarah Palin as their governor after all. I suspect a reasonable number of them also enjoy slamming their fingers in car doors.
Expelling a member of Congress requires a 2/3 majority in their house
.
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_United_States_of_America#Article_I_Section_5
On Planet Janet, the election win by Obama was not due to record low approval ratings for her friend George, widespread disgust at the direction the US was headed, a cynical VP airhead choice or a repudiation of her neocon ideals. It was because racist America voted FOR a black guy. Evidently, she met a white US taxidriver who wanted Obama to win, saying it would be a good thing if they had a black President. QED
Is America a racist nation after all?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/is_america_a_racist_nation_after_all/
Quote, William:
I take it all four members of Club 364 got Missouri wrong, and thus arrived at 364 by tipping Indiana wrong as well?
I’ll out myself, as that was precisely my mistake. However, I must also confess to a mathematical error, as I predicted the extra vote from Nebraska, and somehow tallied that to 364 not 365 as it should have been. So I’m not merely a loser, but a dunce as well. Oops!
Reply to:
On Planet Janet, the election win by Obama was not due to record low approval ratings for her friend George, widespread disgust at the direction the US was headed, a cynical VP airhead choice or a repudiation of her neocon ideals. It was because racist America voted FOR a black guy. Evidently, she met a white US taxidriver who wanted Obama to win, saying it would be a good thing if they had a black President. QED
Is America a racist nation after all?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/is_america_a_racist_nation_after_all/
–
And then you get other crap from her like
Obama will Democratise the judiciary – http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24603244-7583,00.html
She’s a one-eyed right-wing female (I can’t bring myself to call her a woman) who has no credibility. She makes Palin look like the next Obama.
The 17th Amendment says that the state executive may appoint a temporary replacement Senator only with the authority of the Legislature so if the legislature of Alaska took no separate action to disauthorise the executive then Palin/Deputy Palin could theoretically still appoint a temporary replacement (I read something somewhere saying a proposal to attempt to get the Maine-Nebraska method adopted in California by initiative plebiscite by the Republicans would fail for the same reason).
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Additional_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Amendment_XVII
68 that was the most pathetic article I think I’ve ever read. Amazingly bitter. You’d think for one day you could acknowledge how big a thing BO’s win is. But no. She’s truly entered the Ann Coulter sphere.
I was quite surprised to read that Obama is pro choice on abortion
also supports funding for alternative energy sources
supports 80% reduction on emissions
will relax restrictions on stem cell research and
is for civil unions for gays and will let states decide re marriage.
Upfront on his views and secured a a sweeping victory.
The abortion, stem cell and gay stand would not go down well with the religous right, maybe their influence is overestimated, the noisy minority?
Democrat registered voters now outnumber Republicans by nearly 10%, so yes
Dio @ 68,
BOY oh boy, I’m glad I didn’t waste my change on the Australian today …. I was in the newsagents to buy a couple of news issues for keepings sake. I ended up with both Melbourne papers and the Canberra Times but I considered The Australian at one point ….
Has Janet always been thus? (a few kangaroos short) I checked in on some of her stuff last year during the federal election but thought maybe her attitude would die off afterwards. I guess not
Depends how you look at it castle. “Letting states decide” could be seen as a cop-out as he hasn’t said he’s actually for/against them, and whilst previously for gun-control he now supports a decision in the opposite direction.
Depending on where you sit he’s either a constitutionalist or a conformist.
“Democrat” and “religious right” are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
http://democratsforlife.org/ Sort of like the opposite of Emily’s List.
And for gay marriage, look at California. Overwhelmingly Democratic but passed a proposition banning gay marriage.
Indeed, Arizona rejected a similar amendment.
The Republicans are not some ghetto for religious extremists and the Democrats are definitely no left-wing progressive haven.
WILLIAM & JULIEM
Thank you Juliem for conducting th competition and for enormous work you put in
William said “long live th King …. was my almost perfect prediction of it, as published in Crikey last Friday.. “
With respect your honour th King who still sits in th throne , th race was clearly how many e/v’s won and th State that tipped Obama over 270
Now th skill of th 364 Club , th gang of 4 , after years analysis did assess that 364 e/v’s correctly in th race handicap …and only David & th O’Ronly Factor then selected th tipping point State (CA) in th weight for age event AS former King your throne remains using despotic power of being “almost perfect” right
It should be said for us final Gang of 2 also , that I’m sure David privateley went through a specific list doing asessment However I lead with my chin abit as usual and publicly specificaly listed individual States “in play” , and then specifically listed those “in play” that thought were reely absolutely unwinnable (MT , AR , GA , WV ND ) and furthermore then slecificaly listed th 4 close ones (FL , NC, IN and MO) with odds ,listed NC at 54% and then listed IN as a clifhanger at 52/48% chanse & MO reeely a tie at 50.5%/49.5% chanse Given th ultimate closeness of both final votes , th fact they flipped in reverse actually justifies th gang of 4 ‘s final 364 e/v predictions (as more likely 2 cliffhangers will be split than go both one way)
Again Juliem , well done If its any consolation , to show how easy it is to be wrong predicting close contests fact that IN had been “red” since before 1948 years (except LBJ) always pushed me towards MO rather than IN in rating these 2 close cliffhangers (and now Obama joins LBJ in winning it) Suppose Juliem I get th Crown of Thorns , and David gets th covated Crown of Roses
I think that there are more people who fear gays and lesbians and are afraid to admit it than there are people who are racists on skin colour and afraid to admit it {to interviewer – “Oh, that Obama, he’s got a funny sounding name, isn’t he muslim? etc. etc.}
…..
Yes, Oz, you’re right.
Has anyone done a study of the percentage Obama got of the vote in CA and the percentage that voted No, do NOT adopt Proposition 8?
While you must assume logically that there were some Republicans that voted in the negative on Prop 8, I think it is safe to assume that the overwhelming numbers in the difference between those two figures I’m wondering about were Democratic voters. I know gays and lesbians who live in CA, FL and MI and if I were in their shoes, it would really give me the creeps to wonder if my Democratic friends were secretly phobic about sexuality like that.
OZ
I saw that California bit, but I wouldn’t see it as a cop out, wise in letting the states decide, ie baby steps, and it is a big step to take in declaring support for gays. He would have lost votes in seeking to override states.
Is it Cheneys daughter whose gay? and yet he opposes civil unions for gays?
The stem cell is a big step forward as is commitment to emission reduction.
Ron, I don’t know that I expected to get all 3 of them right. I hoped so, but wasn’t sure to be honest (MO, IN, NC). As I was taking a leap of faith on them vs the RCP notossup states map.
Honestly, though, I thought that IF I was going to miss one of those, that it would be guessing wrong on Indiana. My confidence in them was in this order – most on NC, middle on MO and least on IN. Got the middle one wrong …..
castle, yes and yes …….
Palin didn’t know Africa is a continent!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/05/palin-didnt-know-africa-i_n_141653.html
Read this in a digest of stats on the election …
Huh? Who wants to take a stab at explaining that one? I would have thought, intuitively, that an African-American would not increase votes upon those from the previous nominee ….. guess you have to counter-intuitive on that one, but even thinking that way, I still can’t sort it out.
Yes.
Other Republicans are able to show more compassion than that:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5PrGNhczw9U
Well the reason Obama won is because he got more whites and hispanics to vote for him than Kerry or Gore.
Juliem there are some exit polls here of a vague nature.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#CAI01
yes, ShowsOn, I know that much
…. what I am pondering is why Catholics in particular, voted in higher numbers for Obama than Kerry …….
With the Proposition 8 vote in California, I heard that the white vote actually supported gay marriage, and the difference was made up for by a significant anti-gay-marriage vote amongst the black and hispanic community, whose turnout was boosted by Obama. So ironically a much less inspiring Democrat running for President would have saved gay marriage. But it’s only a matter of time. In 2010 the left will fight back and will be much more focused on the goal. Many lefties in California went and campaigned in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado.
78 My thanks as well to you juliem – excellent contest.
If the overall Democratic vote went from 48.3 per cent to 52.4 per cent, I don’t think we should be that surprised that the Catholic vote went from 47 to 53 (subject to margin of error). We know he did well among Hispanics, and presumably they’re a big share of the RC vote.
The majority of American Catholics are either Hispanic (increasingly heavily Democrat, except the Cubans), or working class Irish-American or Italian-American (swung heavilt Democrat this time – they were the US equivalent of the Howard battlers).
Agreed William – I don’t think the RC votes as much of a block anymore.
Those CNN exit poll figures on proposition 8 show 61-39 opposition among the 18-29s, which is reversed for 65+. Combine that with likely lower turnout among blacks and Hispanics in 2010, and I can easily see it being overturned.
Even in CA, Anglo liberals are not 50% of the population. In fact Anglo liberals are probably a declining minority, as the state fills up with Hispanics and Asians. The Democrat coalition doesn’t hold up on this issue, because the Black evangelical churches as well as the Catholics oppose it (also the Orthodox Jews).
It’s also worth remembering that it isn’t as simple in comparing Kerry and Obama. Their race wasn’t their only differences. Obama was much more charismatic, Kerry was much more the stereotypical Liberal, and most importantly, Bush was much less popular in 2008 and the Democrats had built up their party structure and had successes at the 2006 mid-term elections. You could argue, as some people did when Obama was pulling ahead towards the end, that a “vanilla” (ie. straight white guy) Democrat would’ve been 20 points ahead of McCain. Maybe, but who would that have been? Behind Obama you had a woman, who would have had many problems too, then Edwards, who has since been thrown into scandal, then a hispanic politician. So where was the white guy? Truth be told Obama, for most of the campaign, demonstrated that his political skills more than compensated for any negative consequences of his race, and if anything the race of the candidate made Democrats more enthusiastic to succeed.
Yes, it’s only a matter of time before gay marriage is accepted. Until then the religious nutters will try their hardest to block it, only to eventually be disappointed as they are each time abortion is legalised. I was pleased to see a few loony abortion propositions be defeated.
I said this last night, didn’t know when it would happen or what the ultimate disposition of the case might be. But even I didn’t expect it to happen so damm fast
….
thanks, William (91) … that was the piece of the puzzle I was missing; the ethnic makeup of the Roman Catholic voters these days …..
I’d like to throw in a’left’ field thought on th increased RC vote for Obama over Kerry …Sarah Palin
Whilst th natural answer is proportionaly Romon Catholics increased there support for Obama similar to overal Democrat vote increase vs 2004 , its also so that Romon Catholics ( not just RC hispanics) overwhelmingly supported Hillary over Obama so th vote “thought” to chose within a politcal brand , and suggest many Romon Catholics having ‘decided’ they wished to suport Obama may hav seen Sarah Palin’s religion as an additional reason
Ron, her right to life sentiments bordered on the extreme and were in the same ballpark as Catholic dogma if not practice …..
100 agreed – many RC and other “traditonal” churchgoers – Anglican etc are not exactly all that favourable to the fundo side of the religion. However of course the bible belt is a pretty broad church (so to speak)…
juliem,
I know it is popular in some circles to advocate the killing of unborn children. However, there are a large number of humans who believe this practice is barbaric.
You may choose to have a different opinion.
if we’re going to have a pro-choice /pro-life debate, I think I’m going to have to bring up taxation so as to get GP to come in and create a diversion!
The great majority of Catholics don’t vote on the basis of candidate views on abortion. It’s evangelical Protestants who see abortion as a dominant issue.
Is this a core or non-core left field thought?
Most Catholics are creationists, but at least they accept the Earth is billions of years old.
You’re assuming that all people consider a blastocyst ior a zygote morally akin to a born person. There will never be a consensus view on that question, so the best we can do is provide sex education, contraception, and government financial support to reduce the number of women who have to contemplate having an abortion.
This is a moral issue that has been partly resolved by a curious moral compromise, because there will never be universal agreement on the principle that a clump of cells has the same moral worth as a person.
The Money donated by Mormons to back ads for the Prop 8 ban was significant.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pe2023SzWXxE8wYX5qWeoIw
He’s assuming “a large number of humans” consider that, which is certainly true. But most of them don’t base their votes on that belief.
The view is particularly stupid because it pretends that making it “illegal” somehow makes it disappear.
My point was simply believing it doesn’t make it true. So it is a silly rationale for opposing abortion.
There was a nice old McCain/Palin split on what were nation issues and state issues too.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/10/21/america/Palin-Gay-Marriage.php
It’s the principal rationale for opposing abortion. Whether it’s “true” or not is a matter of opinion. It’s not a view I share, but it’s certainly a defensible view, and one held by many highly intelligent people.
That splits been going on both in America and internally in both parties since the formation of the union.
But the political test is not showing how obvious your differences are, so McCain/Palin failed. Well we knew that anyway.
Well it certainly isn’t a view followed through logically. Since stress can induce a ‘natural’ abortion, should we then ban sexually active women from working stressful jobs?
Believing that a few cells are morally akin to a person is absurd on a biological level, and flat out dangerous on a moral level.
Your first paragraph is too stupid to comment on.
Christians don’t believe that “a few cells are morally akin to a person”. They believe that a fertilised cell IS a person, since it has a soul. Since that’s a theological belief, it’s not susceptible to your kind of scientistic dismissal.
It’s a matter of opinion that some people feel strongly about. No amount of arguing convinces people on matters like that.
Oz, I think the war might be carried on in the media for a while just to keep Palin’s profile high.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/06/us/politics/06mccain.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
By the way European sharemarkets are down about 4.5% tonight.
amigo ronnie, congrat 4 slayin those obama suppts who hv swellin head at the moment. Meanwhile back in the ranch the russian bear is growling like gg. Salute frm santiago… Will perf 4 pb in machu piccu
LOL!
If it is stupid, surely you will be able to demonstrate that, rather than just being so dismissive!
Well this is really stupid! Why do we call them different things if they are exactly the same? Why do a few cells look so different from a fully formed human? Why do fully formed humans have capabilities that a blastocyst and zygotes don’t have if they are identical? Why do zygotes have features blastocyst don’t have if they are all the same? This just raises more questions than it answers.
This is a scientific hypothesis commonly called “the ghost in the machine”. Cognitive science and evolutionary biology provide a great deal of evidence that it is a completely flawed theory of the mind.
You are just dismissing this as a theological question by fiat, instead of actually engaging with mountains of scientific literature that says the truth is something else.
But I am not surprised, the ghost in the machine, the blank slate, and the noble savage are the three most common explanations used to define what it means to be human. They all happen to be wrong.
GG @ 103,
Actually, I was just commenting upon her values as the campaign over the last few months presented them. I didn’t specifiy my own. But since you have confused them, I will add my own just to clear the picture.
I happen to believe that life starts at conception BUT I am extremely strongly Pro – Choice. So while I might cringe and cry internally if my 19yo daughter or my 22yo’s GF came upon a situation where she felt an abortion was her only option, I would support her with all of my love. My own internal views are mine and mine alone. I wouldn’t force them upon someone else.
Palin’s positions on abortion have been widely reported in the media. That makes them fair game for public comment and discourse.
ShowsOn, you’re arguing with people who jailed people for saying the Earth was round and revolved around the sun and killed women for having red hair.
Enough said.
ShowsOn you’re being terribly intolerant of other peoples’ legitimate opinions.
No amount of “scientific literature” can prove or disprove religious belief. The soul is not a “scientific hypothesis”, it’s a religious belief. You don’t believe in the soul, and nor do I, but it’s both arrogant and stupid to assert that it is something that can be scientifically refuted.
ShowsOn is typical of half-educated fools who think that “science” can be deployed to answer all questions and refute all beliefs. No real scientist believes that.
Play nice, Adam.
Oh of course.
But the real problem now is people asserting with no evidence whatsoever that some questions are purely theological, or based around faith, when they are actually scientific hypotheses.
The belief that humans have souls is perhaps the most common example of a scientific hypothesis that is claimed to be either a self evident fact, or even worse, an article of faith.
What is a soul ShowsOn?
This is all terribly off topic…
OK, ShowsOn, let’s hear your scientific refutation of the existence of the human soul. I’m all ears.
shows
i have a soul,but then counting my feet it comes to 3 or is it four in total.
btw
“But I am not surprised, the ghost in the machine, the blank slate, and the noble savage are the three most common explanations used to define what it means to be human. They all happen to be wrong.”
what then is the truth?
Check out the Democrat from Idaho, Walt Minnick, who won a house seat.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/06/us/politics/06cong.html
Who knows, but it’s out there…
Yes, I am watching The X-Files.
You’re being intolerant of facts.
Asserting that people have souls that magically appear around the point of conception is a scientific hypothesis that has been disproved. Sorry, but things are more complicated than that.
Incorrect, this just demonstrates your ignorance of science. Again, you are just trying to quarantine this question as if it can’t be investigated scientifically. It has been, and the results show that humans are biological organisms similar to others, but with important differences that give us unique characteristics. There is no evidence that we have souls.
It can be. You are just ignoring several fields of science that try to answer this precise question. You are ignoring a mixture of genetics and cognitive and evolutionary psychology. Again, I simply suggest that you inform yourself more before making such outlandish statements that some questions about HUMAN NATURE are not the domain of science. The whole concept of human nature is a scientific one in the first place!
LOL!
I love the scare quotes around science!
This is absolute rubbish, I never wrote anything remotely proposing this. I simply pointed out that what you think is a question of faith – the proposition that people have souls – is in fact a scientific hypothesis that is unsupported by evidence.
Of course people can believe if they want to! But there is no ghost in the machine, human nature is a lot more complicated than that.
If you cared to read a book on human nature, you’d find that the actual explanation for what makes us human is both more fascinating, and a lot more complicated than that.
Anyone else sick of Thomas Friedman.
He’s a journalist who pretends to be an expert on economics, sociology, history, theology, neuroscience…
And he jumps on whatever bandwagon happens to be popular at the time. You can see that with his views on terrorism, Iraq and the environment.
Rant over.
I’m waiting for your scientific evidence for the non-existence of the soul, as postulated by Christian belief.
Democrats win in Oregon.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/06/2412685.htm?section=justin
I was always under the impression that something had to be proved before it was taken as existing.
I postulate that there’s 14 invisible monkeys doing a conga line on the desk of the Oval Office.
Find me scientific evidence to disprove that!
I am not being ‘intolerant of facts’. What an utterly ridiculous assertion.
Oz
It has been proven that when the soul is fozen you get an ice soul!
think about it
Oz, exactly. ShowsOn maintains he can prove a negative proposition, and I’m waiting to see him do it. Christians don’t regard themselves as obligated to “prove” the existence of the soul, they take it as a matter of faith. That’s the difference between a religious belief and a scientific belief, which ShowsOn refuses to acknowledge.
Oz, nothing can be ‘proved’; just supported by differing degrees of scientific material. That’s neither here nor there. Religious loons believe God trumps science so basing an argument against their beliefs in science is silly. The best you can do is agree to disagree.
I speak on behalf of the entire global population when I say that that is the worst “joke” I’ve ever heard.
Of course religion is based on “faith”, that’s the whole idea of God and religion. But surely some things that were considered a point of “faith” like the sun revolving around the earth have been scientifically shown to be incorrect?
Are you sure?
That the Earth is round cannot be proved? Even though it’s sphere-like shape can be clearly observed as well as tested mathematically?
Nope. Science never proves anything, it can only refute or verify. Relativity was taken as existing on a theoretical basis but took years before it was “proven”.
ShowsOn
There is no scientific evidence for the non-existence of the soul. There is also no evidence for the existence of the soul. But absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
*takes bow*
Oz
no-one got the humphrey b bear- funny othello “joke” last night btw
ShowsOn,
Your blogs by in large are good so please stick to the politics & leave the science & “God complex” alone.
Thanks.
I don’t think relativity has been proven, it remains a scientific “theory”.
Pretty sure I can “prove” I’m sitting on a couch. Unless you want to get into some really absurd areas of “what is couch?” “what is sitting?” “what is real?”.
Of course geocentric cosmology could be disproved, and was, as soon as scientific instruments existed to do it with. But since Christians don’t claim that the soul is a material object which can be seen or measured, how exactly does ShowsOn intend to prove its non-existence? I’m agog with anticipation…
I hear Obama has bought a pitbull puppy for the kids…….called it “Revlon”
Gusface, “what is truth”?
Two possible answers:
- a set of facts consistent with a sound and complete set of truth conditions. Now what about those truth conditions?
- the opposite of whatever John Howard said
I prefer the second definition.
I won’t even try to get into arguments about souls, but I will make one observation. I think one of the next big collisions between religeon and science (after Darwin versus creation is eventually conceded like the earth orbitting the sun) will be over cognitive science, and the possibility for consciousness to survive outside the body. The more we learn about physicalist theories of mind and the relationship between parts of the brain and the mind, the less room there seems to be for immortal souls to be possible. Just my opinion.
I must have missed it, but what does the “B” stand for?
Wikipedia has this gem on Humphrey:
“Typical complaints about the Humphrey character include the character failing to wear pants”.
I hope you’re taking notes, Gusface.
I think I speak for all here when I say please God may we never have another religious debate on this blog that is meant to be about pseph stuff…
I’m sure there’s lots of blogs out in the www to debate over souls.
I pray this doesn’t become one of them.
Oz
Relativity has been proven, in that there is abundant evidence for it, but it took ages to find it (it was light bending during an eclipse if you must know).
And you can provide compelling evidence that you are sitting on a couch but you cannot prove it. How do you know you aren’t dreaming all of this?
oz
The context was regarding sarah palins “communication skills”- which i compared to humphrey b bear
the tag line for humphrey b bear ( a kids show with a mute bear) was – a funny old fellow
(you had to grow up watching the show to get it.sigh)
whats with the pants thing-its not like he was fraser in memphis
According to his website, the “B” stands for Bear
And I have posted this pic before, but to make it on topic for Pollbludger, though not this friend, but one of those pictured was GWB’s Bestest Buddy
http://www.humphreybear.com/images/hbb_gall12.gif
ShowsOn, I’m not sitting up all night waiting for you to demonstrate scientifically the non-existence of the soul. Either defaecate or get off the pot.
#155
Poor old Humph never spoke again from that day on
The latest on the economy of Iceland does not look encouraging.
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2008/11/06/2079779-iceland-keeps-interest-steady-at-18-pct
Douglas Adams worked this stuff out ages ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcncPpQ8loA
SNIP: Overheated comment deleted – The Management.
There is no evidence for it. How humans behave is a complex interaction between our environment (including culture), our senses, and our brains. Our brains evolved to make sense of the world, and our senses evolved to feed accurate information about the world to our brains. There is no magical agent that controls our entire bodies, rather our perception and sense of consciousness is an extraordinarily complicated interplay of these functions that run across 100 billion or so neurons (the possible permutations of brain connections is more than all the atoms in the universe).
If there was a soul driving these processes there would be evidence of it in the brains of living people that isn’t in dead people. But again, there is no evidence of a SINGLE thing in there controlling the ENTIRE body. I understand that intuitively the idea that there is a central agent seems to make sense, but there is just no evidence for it. Some people suffer strokes in some parts of the brain and only have slightly impaired brain function, whereas others have strokes in other parts that leave them completely paralysed. If there is central agent, why would there be these varied outcomes from incapacitation? Or if the soul is driving things – and not our brains – why do we need a brain at all?
People cling to the idea that we have souls because they want to believe there is an agent in us that makes us behave in a positive moral way. They seem to feel that without a soul or spirit there can’t be a positive moral force driving us to do good. But I think this ignores the fact there are also evolutionary reasons for why we are generally kind to others (so they don’t threaten to kill us), and that we have devised cultural processes to encourage good behavior, and discourage bad behavior (nation states, politics, laws).
We could remain blissfully ignorant of these facts, but doing so implies an ignorance of our biological foundations, and the fact humans are the products of millions of years of evolution. I accept this doesn’t count as a complete proof, but I simply propose there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary. We should believe the explanation of human nature supported by evidence, rather than one based purely on speculation.
Abortion was a sleeper in th election given Obama’s overpowerful views on it , tougher even than th NRAL , perhaps I’ll post his views one day Of course neither Party politcaly wanted to make it too big an issue
Be that as may , Obama does needs to be careful his minority Abortion views that he’s been prepared to vote publicly for issue in past , don’t flare th whole Aborton debatee in US as there’s big chunks of Democrat demographics who do not support especialy within blackk church community base , th hispanics , jews and suspect strong increasing Asian groups
Th passion against abortion is driven mainly by passion in beliefs in religion and that may weaken politcal party affiliation suport for some if it blew right up
For mine left fields I hav no problem therefore at all in people opposing abortion believing a human is already created & tink its intollerant to dismiss such views I also undrerstand those who suport abortion for a woamns health , mentel situations and children especialy rape etc However what seems to occur is like politcal sprectrum diferense its so polorised one vs other , one 100% right and th other 100% wrong , and sometimes a Government reacts to politcal pressure groups wih a decision on this moral value jugement issue withot balance I tink
Here’s ShowsOn pretending he doesn’t understand the argument.
I believe all that but still allow other people to have their own beliefs.
Firstly, that is just a set of assertions, not a presentation of evidence. Do I need to give you a lecture on the scientific method?
Secondly, you obviously have no idea what Christians actually say about the soul. They don’t say it’s a “controlling agent” or something that can be materially measured. This shows a level of ignorance of Christian doctrine which is just laughable.
I said earlier you were a half-educated fool, and you have just proved it, as I fully expected you would. Now I can go to bed.
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
I’m waiting for their evidence their is one, when there is so much evidence to the contrary!
Oh dear! How is saying a soul EXISTS a negative proposition!? You are saying “prove that something that can’t be proven exists exists”! That is just plain stupid.
There is a very good alternative explanation for human behavior which is just a lot more likely.
What you have written is effectively the same as “because no one has ever been able to observe evolution in action, that means creationism must be equally likely”.
We see the EFFECTS of evolution, but not the processes itself actually occurring.
Why thank you for your kind words.
Science only produces theories! Relatively has been supported over numerous experiments, most recently by sending radio signals back and forth between Mars.
This is just idiocy that completely demonstrates your ignorance of science. Just because some dogmatic believers SAY something as certain properties doesn’t make that true. If something exists there should be evidence of it in some sort. If an alternate explanation is supported by more evidence, that is more likely to be true.
Classy stuff. Well done.
I believe other people can have their own beliefs too. It just doesn’t make them true, or even remotely likely to be true.
No thank you, you’ve demonstrated you have no idea what the scientific method is.
They suggest it is a ghost in the machine. The fact you don’t realise that demonstrates you don’t actually know the ramifications of what they are proposing.
The fact you simply reverted to this attack demonstrates you have absolutely no idea of the significance of what I wrote.
There’s no such thing as souls. There’s no evidence to support that they exist.
Meanwhile it looks like the currency markets have taken a turn for the worse again and the next move is a large cut in rates by the Bank of England. I thought all the central banks were going to take combined action against the strength of the Yen a couple of weeks ago, what are they waiting for?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/euro-down-pound-gains-ahead/story.aspx?guid={7943B2A9-8A7A-41AB-9D35-069ED9C8277B}&dist=msr_1
Can we please avoid going into the religion/science/souls/abortion etc debate? That’s the point when I stop reading comments on here, and I’m sure others do too.
To get the abortion debate back onto psephological issue, I would argue that most Catholics (we’re not talking about churchgoing Catholics here, who may have a different political breakdown) are pro-choice or very weak pro-lifers who don’t vote on that basis. It’s not the issue that decides the election. After all, every election you have some Catholic bishop say awful things about the Democrat and they still get half the Catholic vote. John Kerry was threatened by some bishops with excommunication and still got 47% of the vote.
Ever since Paul VI banned the use of contraceptives, the Church lost control over the sex lives of a significant majority of Catholics, at least in the Western world. And the two countries where the Church has lost the most control of Catholics are Australia and the US.
Shows
just luv you’re work
+1000
#169
was there a pun in your words there
you’re=your
Ben
Did religion really factor in this election?
As Castle ,i think,said earlier they are the noisy minority-personally I call them the nosey minority
Yes it’s obvious the souls debate is a waste of time and space.
SNIP: Suspect comment deleted – The Management.
What did I say about absurdism?
Currency market is stuff. Time for a currency pegged to the inverse value of coal. How’s that for a market based incentive to stop climate change.
Breaking news – Bank of England cuts rates 1.5%.
The Bank of England has just cut its key rate to 3% from 4.5%.
Frank, http://www.humphreybear.com/images/hbb_gall12.gif is my new desktop.
Btw I must have misheard Lateline, no rate cut.
steve,
It seems like all the Central Banks have had an outbreak of “limbo fever”.
How low can you go?
Oh there was a rate cut.
170
My #162 suggested psephological angles on Abortion for Abama in this own Democrat vote blocks
Same applies to gay marriage , VP Biden who oposes it but would vote against a State ballot on it These issues ar fraught with politcal pot holes aside from actual issue debate itself
VP Biden who publicly oposes it but would vote against a State ballot to ban it
The US might have a bit of trouble brewing in Taiwan to where a hundred thousand demonstrators are upset over talks with a delegation from the Chinese mainland.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gzWno1YGe_7I85ZJJqSW7gIz_zmA
Oz
I jus got your 151
lipstick . pitbull
har de har
ps do you know the helena rubenstein one?
China says if Taiwan ever officially declares independence they’ll invade. The US says if China invades they’ll retaliate.
Neither China nor the US are going to war over Tawain.
??
max factor
1.5%, holy crap
I don’t get it.
Dario it was looking like the economy in England was going to contract 1% in the next year as against the US .5% contraction. It has turned the European sharemarkets around by at least two percent in the past half hour or so and they may well finish up in positive territory. The banks over there have threatened not to pass on the full cut but I think they might get lent on very heavily.
#184
there is nothing inconsisyent with th 3 sentences positions Its called a mexican standoff reverse checkmate
By Gordon Brown? Does he have that much authority left?
Sure, but the US is not going to invade China over Tibet.
Ron
That is quite an imperialistic statement “mexican standoff”
rates up there with french letter and dutch treat as an example of both superiority and propaganda in one neat package.
When in fact the mehicanos kicked the french’s arse
alamo anyone?
frenchs arse being of course maximillian
Check out the turnaround in the European sharemarkets since the interest rate cut announcement.
http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/usmarkets.asp
Sure , but Tibet is an insignificant economic etc power Some Obama suporters may find Bush was a mumbler and Obama a brilliant orator but some World reality situations may not change just how its described that nothing is going to change , & with Tibet vs Tailwan reletivities
This is correct.
Sorry I meant Taiwan.
Regardless of it’s economy, the two biggest powers on the planet aren’t going to war over it.
“Ron That is quite an imperialistic statement “mexican standoff”
but you left out my last 2 words “Its called a mexican standoff reverse checkmate”
So I spread th flavour of chess playing cultures in with our Mexican alamo friends
The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to 2.75 percent from 3.25 percent.
And what ar th “but if when maybe” brigade of econamists going to do if there objectives ar not met with rate decreases and interest rates get to 0% , whats there trick then (but from amigo FINNS “ploy”: th Banks pay you to borrow from then
Ron, that actually happened in Japan in November 1998.
http://money.cnn.com/1998/11/06/economy/japan_bank/
Steve tanks for that , although after reading it it seems it was overseas Banks to Japenese Banks for holding Yen etc , but wondering th step after (if) rates got to 0% itself in a country and if th amigo FINNS trick cpomes into play ..th curent presumption todate is at “some” point before 0% an effect will occur as per history but even inter Bank confidense is low (’oz’ banks hold 6 trillion of these CDO & CDS deritives off balanse sheet)
and am not sure if rudds guarantee covers that , suspect not
Adam, please less running a psephological thread into the ditch with some irrelevant dinner-party controversy-creating standbys. And more eating of humble pie regarding your prognostications about the election, which now must read like the ramblings of some bastard child of Karl Rove and Malcolm McKerras at his silliest.
Apologies if you already have and I missed it.
SimonH
th guy Adam is not live to defend himself & he certainly wouldn’t want a literary rogue like me defending him , however you ar shooting th messenger instead of th untollerant provateur (”S” whose bandwidth on it is proof)
Anyway humble pie applies to winners doing so also and you’ve in underlying spirit of your blog hav exceeded that pie eating , seeing th guy acknowledged prediction many times , and its quite diengenuous to make th attack and then say Oh appologies if I missed it
You’d be better off taking me on , i’ve congratulated your man without qualification on winning but hav ‘left’ policy reaons & others for having reservations about outcomes vs perseptions
Adam isn’t live to defend himself? My deepest sympathy to his family and loved ones.
While your contributions are frequently experimental Ron, the fact remains that you either won the sweep or at least went much closer than me. I was way too far on the Obama-pessimistic side (311). As I hope is the case with most Australians, I’ll always respect a good punter.
th culture of my lingos was lost in translation heres , SimonH I NEVER made a reference or inferense to predictons , i was simply saying I’m live I’m not a supporter of Obama although I ve congratulated him witout reservation …AND THEREFORE i’m live here to attack should you wish…those in nigh nighland attack dems when they ar lives
As for good punting , no , Bauer centimters short and all on th nose , no each ways for th greedy punter here
FINNS
Posted Thursday, November 6, 2008 at 9:45 pm | Permalink
#118
“amigo ronnie, congrat 4 slayin those obama suppts who hv swellin head at the moment…Salute frm santiago… in machu piccu”
Amigo , missed your post earlier , your post was in middle of a big religous parlay vou & I was tinking th memory of Obama’s win got forgot somehow …so you in Santiago over nited there , and spreading th Amigo gospels to th South America’s as official Ambassadors…so you drawing Abama like crowds
Ron @ 181,
That is because he is pro choice and wants to preserve the right of others to chose for themselves. If a state or national government were to mandate laws in that area, it would remove the right of women to chose for themselves what they want to do.
Back to the election ….. this link shows maps of the vote and also shows population cartograms which skew the red/blue markings to reflect the population centers. That allows a truer picture of how much red/blue division in fact actually existed.
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/?map
If no one has found this I just had to share this –
http://obama2008.s3.amazonaws.com/headlines.html
E N J O Y !!!
The transition team is starting to be mustered. One thing I hadn’t thought of is that the new administration has to be careful that the new team does not look like a third term Clinton administration.
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/us/series/the_new_team/index.html
Oz
The argument that “reality” is a dream is solipsism, not absurdism. Absurdism is the philosophy that life has no meaning and that human attempts to find one will fail.
Obama will win the second congressional district of Nebraska:
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10480262
So 365 looks like the result.
Looks liek Sarah Palin was even dumber than we thought (!!!) even according to Fox News!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/insiders-spill-the-beans-on-sarah-palin/2008/11/07/1225561084675.html
Good to see that Fox were able to keep the news quiet till after the election and didn’t allow the “duty” of reporting news to override their loyalty to right wing politics.
Possum, a question.
Does the 57 Dems tally count in the senate include the two independent democratic leaning senators? Or are they a different kettle of fish?
Rasmussen – Obama approval ratting +8 (40 / 32) LOL!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
The official webpage of the President-elect:
http://change.gov/
How can people already strongly disapprove?
Steve – both Bernie Sanders and that Lieberman creature caucus with the Democrats, so they’re both counted in the 57 tally.
Lieberman is expected to be given a shit sandwich to eat by the democrat leadership later today I think. No more committee chairs and other boondoggles for him.
Obama’s final vote in all ten swing states was more than the final RCP average. No evidence of Bradley, pro-Dem pollster bias, Diebold or a last minute tightening. The polls were pretty good except they consistently underestimated Obama’s vote and they were miles out in NM and NV (7.6% and 6.0%).
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/11/05/polls/index.html
LANDSLIDE!
No idea, that’s what makes the poll funny.
I think that is fair. I mean it is one thing him campaigning for McCain, but his absurd speech at the Republican convention is something else.
Dio went:
Cell phone effect
Probably. But do they have an inordinate number of cell phones in NM and NV? It might be more complicated.
How can we tell that there WASN’T a Bradley effect, that just happened to be canceled out by a big cell phone effect?
Oh, and in what states was the Sara Palin effect most important? Iowa, Indiana, Ohio?
Possum
The average underestimate of Obama’s vote was 2.5% in those 10 swing states. If it’s due to the cell phone effect, how does that translate to Australia, where we increasingly have younger (Green/Labor) voters with no land-line? Do the polls here take this into consideration?
Dammit ……. that means bloody Missouri cost me …….. otherwise, I would have been right on the mark ……
Ron and Dave are still in as the winner was nearest to but not over
BH, what was your methodology behind your 376 pick? Cheers
The cellphone effect is going to take a bit to get to the bottom of properly because of ecological fallacy issues. State data on cellphone only households needs to be broken down into smaller regions, then age characteristics accounted for.
Dio – we’ve never seen the cell phone effect in Oz yet.
How do we also know the young people in ‘cell phone’ only households break significantly differently across party lines than young people sampled in the normal way?
Onion site – http://www.theonion.com/content/index
“Dio – we’ve never seen the cell phone effect in Oz yet.”
Possum, I thought it might have been part of the problem with the Morgan face to face.
Face to face being effected by mobile only households? I don’t get it.
Possum
The two huge outliers were NV and NM, both out west. Maybe part of the underestimation is due to McCain voters not turning up after PA and OH were called.
Actually, I saw some data showing that in the 06 elections there was also a 2-3% underestimation of the Dem vote. There is clearly a systematic (unintentional) bias in US polling against the Dems. The cellphone effect might be the it. But why isn’t it here as well?
If pollsters in Oz are actually factoring the effect cell phones into their polls with their age weightings, then perhaps Morgan face to face does not remove this effect from their weightings and thus has an extra skew?
Perhaps our pollsters factor it in already
ltep – because nearly every US pollster that has looked at it finds the same thing, Pew and Gallup particularly.
There’s a few reasons that are often argued to be behind it – one being technology utilisation. People that live in cell phone only households are more likely to use the net and use it more often, are less likely to be evangelical and less likely to be ideologically conservative.
It’s an interesting hypothesis, but if they know it exists why haven’t the figured out a way to factor it into their weighting?
Perhaps evangelicals think mobiles are tools of the devil. Perhaps there’s a telegram only effect.
Maybe there’s no political difference in Oz between cell phone only households and the wider population? Morgans face to face polls have bigger problems than any hypothetical cell phone effect in Oz anyway.
Dio – lots of little reasons will be measured and analysed and aggregated to explain polling/election result differentials over the next little while. There’s never any given single thing that ends up explaining Problem X with elections, but a given few things collectively usually end up explaining, statistically at least, large parts of Problem X.
“Morgans face to face polls have bigger problems than any hypothetical cell phone effect in Oz anyway.”
I’ve always thought of it as the more mobile people are then the less likely they are to be home when Morgan visits.
Ltep – the telegram only effect would explain Utah
Some things are really hard to weight for. It sounds easy in theory – just up the weighting of 18-34 year olds. But if cellphone only households act significantly differently than their landline peers, then weighting wont solve the problem. The pollster has to either:
(a) dampen or expand the actual results (like add some number to the polled results for the Dems and subtract another from Republicans). But Pollsters hate doing that because it means they’re no longer really being pollsters.
(b) Actually set up a process where that cellphone only cohort can actually be polled (or use screening questions to find that subdemographic in the field and weight from there, but that adds large uncertainty to the end result)
“Kobe Bryant Scores 25 In Holy Shit We Elected A Black President”
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/kobe_bryant_scores_25_in_holy_shit
Oh Dear, the repugs are frantically trying to organise a boycott against Fox News for their treatment of Palin but are finding it hard to find anyone who admits to watching Fox News.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2127130/posts
I thought Fox News viewership was their base?
Kim Beazley’s take on the US election results
Those Free Republic folk are mindboggling.
Speaking of Fox
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/11/05/jogger_rabid_fox.html?imw=Y
Jogger runs a mile with rabid fox biting her arm
If they turn off Fox, where else will they get their right wing TV news?
Drudge?
the amigos will hold obama to account, dont u worry abt that. I did say gg was growling.
The seafood in santiago is sensational
OK so lets get all Australians onto mobiles and the net, now.
btw a traveller tip. Make sure u travel with a mobile that can access wireless internet. Free wireless is everywhere. I am bloggin on my mobile in the hotel lobby
Using an iPhone?
One of my friends lives out in the country here in Australia and has recently purchased an emu for their property. She emails me today and tells me that they are going to rename the emu “Dubya” as the emu is the closest thing that they have to a turkey
Obama’s cabinet appointment notes:
http://www.236.com/blog/w/lee_camp/barack_obamas_notes_on_his_pot_10107.php
Juilem, way back at 210, thanks heaps for the maps link, v informative visuals, they make the claim about the GOP potentially becoming a rural rump a bit more credible (although, I reckon that GOP machine will get it self back on track and into urban USA by 2016)
It will only do it with a moderate candidate who is pro choice on abortion, and doesn’t constantly crap on about gay marriage and gun ownership. Obama winning was a rejection of cultural issues as wedge topics, it showed that at the end of the day, economic security trumps all those issues.
Juliem 228 – I am a bit embarrassed to tell you. I am absolutely psephologically illiterate except when it comes to waiting for the polls and being pleased that my mob are in front.
I trawled around the Austar channels – CNN, BBC World, CNBC & Bloomberg and, yes, -the dreadful Fox for the comedic value. We don’t get free to air here – lots of tall trees and huge hills in the way.
Saw that you had 375 and as I had followed your knowledgeable comments plus William’s figures each day I thought ‘I’ll have a go at this – I reckon BO will bolt it in so I’ll go one more than Juliem because she knows what she is talking about.” Also thought Obama would get Florida, Ohio and Missouri – missed the last one.
Not very scientific as you can see but like last year here I just had the feeling that nothing was going to stop BO – even if the GFC had not happened. There seemed to be a desperation for a change in the US.
Now ask me about the 2010 here and I’ll tell you that Kev & Co will bolt it in too. I had better be right!!
Unfortunately I can’t spend a lot of time being logged on here as I take phone calls for a community group. I just check in every day to read comments and log on when I can. I say again as I have before, thank goodness for all of you who contribute to this site no matter which side you bat for and for William, Possum and Shrike.
Obama got 78% of the Jewish vote, up from 75% that Kerry, but not as high as the 82% that Gore-Lieberman got in 2000. Jewish voters were uneasy about Obama, but the selection of Palin tipped them back again.
That free republic site is totally insane. You just have to read it to believe it. Fox News is a creature of the liberal left, was pro-Obama, pro-gay (because it’s full of gay reporters) and anti-God.
It looks like there was a “Bradley” effect after all in Alaska. Pollsters grossly underestimated Stevens vote, probably as not many voters would admit to a pollster that they were voting for a convicted felon.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-in-hell-happened-in-alaska.html
Diogenes and poor old Guy Fawkes was pretty much neglected this year. It has been claimed that he was the first man to enter parliament with honourable intentions.
If he wins, surely the Republican senate leadership will work with Democrats to make him resign from the Senate. That would be the first move that the GOP could make to show they understand the meaning of the election.
The absurdity of the death penalty:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24615004-38196,00.html
ShowsOn @ 264,
I know that that was what Reid said BEFORE. But I read a piece last night that (can’t remember where it was) that intimated that if the removal of Stevens via expulsion meant having Sarah Palin in the Senate; well that Senators would see things a totally different way and try to find some way around this can of worms. The other 99 Senators don’t want to have to share that chamber with “her” ……
“It looks like there was a “Bradley” effect after all in Alaska. Pollsters grossly underestimated Stevens vote, probably as not many voters would admit to a pollster that they were voting for a convicted felon.”
Diogenes, we have a full blown conspiracy theory being developed over this one. Something smells very fishy in Alaska, I tell ya.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6644
But that would be funny! Seeing a whole group of people who actually know things shun her.
Maybe Democrats just stopped voting because Obama had won before the polls in Alaska closed? So that helped Stevens.
Check out this graph, it compares this year’s vote to 2004:
http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/drshift.jpg
My big question is, why would Louisiana and Arkansas swing so heavily Republican?
I would’ve thought Katrina would make Louisiana lean democratic.
A reader of the Melbourne Age said in a letter today that he feels much safer with the Obama, Rudd and Brown Coalition of the Willing.
I’ll drink to that.
Oh, and how did Obama manage such huge swings in Indiana?
ShowsOn, perhaps enough of the pre Katrina black population didn’t return to NO?
Darn LOL how misguided can you be.
Who would terrorists rather face?
Obama, Brown, and Rudd
or
Bush, Blair and Howard
Anyway we’ll see how safe we are soon enough.
Brown will be gone in a couple of years anyway.
Gordon Brown finally wins one.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aF.3bbd18vrs&refer=uk
I heard about this terrorist attack that occurred in the U.S. 7 years ago. Bush was the President then, so to answer your question, it seems terrorists enjoyed Bush as President.
Well, it shares a border with Illinois, and has overlapping TV markets in several areas
If their intention is to start WW3 then probably Bush as he seemed quite happy to start a war when given the opportunity
Probably should have seen this one coming
….
Yeah, pretty amazing though, even Clinton couldn’t win there.
#274: Wow, big surprise there – margin 19,946 votes to 13,209. From what I was reading, Labour was expected to lose.
Is she refusing to donate them to charity?
Maybe she wants to give some as a gift to President Sarkozy’s wife when they go hunting?
I heard a story on the BBC last night saying Brown’s approval ratings have taken off since the financial crisis, and that this made the seat winnable.
They send a lawyer to pick up clothes? wtf?
Shows, not sure what she intended on doing but whatever it was, it isn’t going to happen the way that she planned
……
I’ve seen the Palin crowd in more than one place uttered in the same breath with the word “hillbilly” and I’m believing it more and more
….. It is funnier too when you can remember some of the scenes from the old Beverly Hillbillies show { but I probably shouldn’t say that as that dates me 
}
Glen 273
I wasn’t actually referring to terrorism. The chances of any of us bing killed in a terrorist attack are about the same as winning tattslotto.
I had in mind the really big threats to us all like global warming, the need to embrace renewable enery sources and wean ourselves off oil, finding a better way to run the world financial system, other than leaving it the hands of greedy free marketeers who almost wrecked the whole thing, etc.
I don’t think there is much doubt that messrs Bush, Howard and Blair would have been next to useless in solving those kinds of issues. .
ShowsOn 269
Juliem is right – New Orleans population is still only about 60% of what it was before Hurricane Katrina. In fact the rate or resettlement has actually slowed. Some areas may never be rebuilt. See
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-08-04-neworleans_N.htm
Several hundred thousand people no longer live there. It isn’t just poor blacks – a lot of former college students no longer study there, and that would hurt the democrat vote too.
She doesn’t own them remember! They belong to the RNC.
If the Republicans really think she is the answer to their woes in 2012, then they’re obviously asking a pretty stupid question.
Here’s an interesting discussion on what the Republicans may do:
http://www.slate.com/id/2203800/entry/2203801/
Some say talk less about economics, the others say talk more about abortion and gay marriage.l
Ah OK, so comparing to 2004 isn’t really a meaningful comparison.
I realise that, but why a lawyer?
If Sarah Palin does run in 2012 she will have one fan – Tina Fey!
Although no longer a regular on Saturday Night Live, I’m sure that, if the need arises, Tina will be prepared to offer herself in service of her network. She will probably demand a contract with a larger wardrobe allowance though.
They are going to struggle to get anything heard for the next years other than the economy, the way things are headed over there
My feeling is that the world will change so much in 4 years.
Whatever we think is important now – economics and terrorism – may be secondary issues by then.
I mean, at the start of the campaign, I thought McCain was just going to hammer Obama day and night over national security, paint him as being weak and unpatriotic. While they did that a bit, economics just swamped everything else.
The next campaign will just be something different again.
My early prediction is that Obama will win Arizona
1. Prime Minister Rudd of Australia
2. Prime Minister Harper of Canada
3. President Sarkozy of France
4. Chancellor Merkel of Germany
5. Prime Minister Olmert of Israel
6. Prime Minister Aso of Japan
7. President Calderon of Mexico
8. President Lee of South Korea
9. Prime Minister Brown of the United Kingdom
I thought the (acting) P.M. of Israel was Tzipi Livni?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1108/Calls_returned.html?showall
No, she gave up trying to form a coalition government so there will be new elections next year. Olmert is the transitional government PM.
Wikipedia says that since Livni couldn’t form a new coalition government, Olmert remains as acting P.M.
That’s nuts! Hasn’t he been charged with fraud, which is why he had to resign!?
Interesting that Berlusconi missed the list of callers.
I don’t think he’s been charged yet, just implicated
Not really surprising after his comments yesterday
But isn’t that what lead him to resign, which is why Livni was elected head of Kadima in the first place?
Given those circumstances, I don’t understand why their political system let’s that same person stay in the job!
So on January 19th, will there be an official hand over ceremony of world’s biggest political douche bag, from Bush to Berlusconi?
I think he said he would resign as PM following the election, so as no new PM has been appointed by that election (and there will be new elections) he is staying on. A bit odd I’ll grant you, but it sort of makes sense.
Nah, I reckon Mugabe still has that honour
I should’ve added the proviso that is is for democracies.
Politico44 is a new page that is going to blog Obama’s activities by the hour!
http://www.politico.com/politico44/
When too much blogging is barely enough!
That being the case I think you would probably be correct
FINNS
#251
“The seafood in santiago is sensational’
Probably shark finns Amigo Let us know about th crowds your message is reaching
ShowsOn
“Whatever we think is important now – economics and terrorism – may be secondary issues by then.”
I’d lay a book they will not be secodnary issues then
Juliem , you commented on my #181 (was part of #180) about biden pro choise and giving women a choise Actualy was referring to Gay marriage where Biden publicly opposes it but won’t support CA ballot to ban it so was highliting by example how dificult politcaly some of these moral judgement issues ar for policans as his stanse probabley upsets both sides He’s copied Evatt’s principal & evatt got crucified both ways on it
I see Cell phones only get sold to democrats & demographics , Cellgate , like to see Cellgate explained by ‘oz’ pollsters given our cell penetrations
One of my numerous lead with chin predictons wass that th likely voters were being under estimated by at least 2% by US pollstars generally , but cell phones not in my thoughts , these pollstars do breakups by age and demographics etc post Its partly there samples and likely voter calcs that ar part of problem , linking past turnouts later Party registrations , Affilations split rates & my area , then to intention to vote & likely voter turnouts Of course some pollstars ar “hired” by a side and some no good anyway no matter what
305,
how neat is that?
…… thanks much 
I think in 4 years from now the world economy will be growing again, that was my point.
econamy is always in th trifecta
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2008/11/we-are-the-worl.html
Oh yeah, as in Obama will be able to use his economic record to bash the Republican candidate in submission.
“We can’t go back to how things were before I was elected…”
ShowsOn
you said which i corrected you on
“Whatever we think is important now – economics and terrorism – may be secondary issues by then.”
So no more back pedalling …th econamy is always a primary issue …what state its then in or how politcans address it politcaly then is a seporate issue to what you said that i queried
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
also coreection typo error , I predicted likely voters by pollstars would be under estimated by at least 1% not 2%
Obama win newspaper front pages (WARNING THERE ARE A LOT)
http://obama2008.s3.amazonaws.com/headlines.html
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24616383-601,00.html
Paul Kelly should be fined whenever he uses the word “folly”.
He should go back to saying that everything is a “paradigm shift”, that was slightly more interesting.
It’s getting really nasty in the fight for the Repugs dark and twisted soul. It doesn’t get a lot worse than this. Beck really will fit in well at Fox.
Beck: Conservatives voted for McCain hoping he’d die in office so Palin could take over.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/11/06/beck-mccain-die/
Is the final make-up of the Senate any closer? What is the most likely result?
Apparently there will be a recount in Minnesota if the margin is closer than 0.5%
There will be a runoff in Georgia if Chambliss doesn’t get to 50%.
There are still lots of votes left to be counted in Alaska, and a great deal of confusion because attendance seems to be down 10% (which is confusing given that Palin was a candidate). There is some speculation that not all pre-poll / absentee votes have been included.
So if Democrats manage to win those, I think they will get to 58 including Lieberman and Sanders.
Lieberman has been offered a sub-committee chair by the Democrat majority leader. They want him to relinquish his chair of the Home Land Security department.
Lieberman is just weird. Sometimes he appears quite the Democrat, other times he appears quite the Republican.
ShowsOn and bob
The Dems have 57 ATM (including Lieberman and Sanders). There are three to be decided so they could still get to 60. Lieberman is hoping they get there so they need him, otherwise they can cut him loose.
MN has an automatic recount.
Alaska looks very weird. There’s something fishy. Could do anything.
GA looks like a recount but Chambliss would probably win there because I think Bob Barr’s rep look away some votes from Chambliss which he should get back.
Yeah, which I guess is why he is an independent.
I think the huge mistake he made was giving a speech at the Republican convention, particular one that had such a condescending tone. His main argument essentially amounted to, “McCain is old, that makes him suitable for this job, Obama is young, that makes him unsuitable.”
I think he is regretting that particular speech about now.
Hopefully Bob Barr runs for the Senate!
But I see what you mean, the turn out for a run off will probably be much lower, because there won’t be the Presidential election to motivate many voters.
“McCain is old, that makes him suitable for this job, Obama is young, that makes him unsuitable.”
Exactly. I still can’t quite comprehend that he caucuses with the Democrats, but supported the Republican nominee for President.
Not to mention the Democrat nominee received a landslide on polling day. Interesting to note that Obama and Clinton’s wins were landslides (in comparison to both of Bush’s anyway).
No President has been as unlucky as President George W. Bush…months after taking office 9/11, then Hurricane Katrina and now the global financial crisis.
All 3 of these would have made any President look bad.
I think the big difference was $$$$, McCain has 80m Obama had hundreds of millions of dollars…how can you compete with that?
No Glen. Bush was just incompetent.
Typical left wing thing to say, you dont look past your bias or try to anyway.
If those things had happened to Obama and he was struggling in the polls you’d say he was unlucky too not incompetent.
The Democrats have just as much to blame for the problems America is in today and you can’t hack it.
Oh come on! What about Lincoln and FDR? Or Truman and Nixon who had to end wars?
All Presidents eventually face dire circumstances, it is how they RESPOND that determines whether they are remembered as good or bad leaders.
At the end of the day, Bush simply wasn’t cut out for the job. Governor was the highest political office that he was suited for.
Glen
That’s absolute rubbish.
9/11 made Bush popular and gave him, and America, huge goodwill. He used that for his own perverted agendas and pissed the goodwill up against the wall by torturing, spying on his countrymen, waging a stupid and unnecessary war, and trampling on the Constitution.
Hurricane Katrina was bad luck but very poorly handled. You can’t go 8 years without some natural disaster. If he had’ve managed it well, it would have helped him.
The GFC was all of the neocon chickens coming home to roost. The greed and stupidity of financial people never fails to amaze me.
No Glen, I pride myself in not being a partisan. I’ve yet to make a judgement on Obama because he hasn’t done anything yet. I find it hard to believe he can be any worse than that disaster though.
I’ll note that Bush has the lowest approval ratings (10-20%) in US polling history.
Oh yes, let’s just stick to the right-wing bias and believe it was due to other things besides himself! Or the fact he only just scraped through in both elections.
Ahhh righties. They crack me up.
Lincoln came close to losing the Civil War ShowsOn…it was really hard for him but in the end they militarily prevailed.
Diogenes…Bush didnt start the so called War on Terror…he had it thrown on his lap, it would have been hard for any president and for Gore too had he won.
Katrina was poorly handled by local authorities…Mayor Gray Nagin was incompetent as they come…
GFC is just to blame for the Democrats too, they passed laws under Clinton to offer loans to people who couldnt afford them in the 90s and started this whole stupid direction into dodgy sub-prime markets…the Republicans didnt change this and neither did the Democrats when they came to power in 2006, both parties are to blame.
’so-called war on terror’ Glenn? How PC.
I thought Bush was back up to 23% now? I read a Cheney approval rating poll that had him on 17%!
One of the biggest issues for me is how the hell can Obama de-politicise 1) the electoral process 2) The justice department.
Those two things need to occur to secure U.S. democracy.
Glen,
You getting geared up for tomorrow?
…. if is is any consolation to you to hear it from a “leftie” I think your horse is home tomorrow 
……
This is rubbish. The North was an economic powerhouse compared to the South, and ultimately stronger economies win wars. Read Shelby Foote’s Civil War history, which was written from a Southern perspective. He freely concedes that the South never had a chance of winning the war because the North had more men, money and machines.
Wrong…the British and French came awfully close to recognising the South. Had they done so the Union could well have lost.
Lincoln also came close to defeat in the 1864 election against McClelland but thankfully Grant took Atlanta or burned it to be precise and this gave Lincoln the boost he needed to prevail.
Had the South won Gettysburg they most probably would have gone on to force a settlement.
Glen
Bush did start the War on Terror. That’s what he called it. Obviously he had to respond to 9/11 but he totally stuffed the response. Al Qaeda committed 9/11, not the people of Iraq or Afghanistan. And he didn’t even go after OBL, he left that to the locals who failed not surprisingly.
FEMA totally screwed up Katrina, and Bush appointed “Brownie” who was doing “a heck of a great job”, until everyone worked out that the people affected would have been better off in a third world country where the aid would have come quicker. Obviously the locals stuffed up as well.
I agree on the GFC, but having a dumb, unquestioning, blind faith kind of President meant that he just trusted what he was told.
Lincoln also suspended the writ of habius corpus…something akin to Guantanamo Bay (althought not torture)…but nevertheless he was praised for doing so keeping Maryland free of Southern loyalties…
Let me be absolutely clear, Bush did make mistakes all Presidents do Clinton did and Obama will too. I just think it is too simplistic to blame George for everything, now i know he must accept responsibility (as he is President) but somethings were out of his control.
This just proves how weak the confederacy was! They were hoping other countries could come to their rescue! The south NEVER HAD A CHANCE.
I think I’ll trust the opinions of Civil War historians rather than your loose collection of anecdotes.
Of course, and the best Presidents respond well to unexpected events.
Bush reacted hopelessly to unexpected events. And didn’t act proactively enough to events he should’ve seen coming, like the global financial crisis.
Dio @ 339,
Speaking of FEMA screwing up Katrina, have you read Naomi Klein’s “The Shock Doctrine”? On page 410 she says “Within weeks, the Gulf Coast became a domestic laboratory for the same kind of government-run-by-contractors that had been pioneered in Iraq. The companies that snatched up the biggest contracts (to “fix” things) were the familiar Baghdad gang: Halliburton’s KBR unit had a $60 million gig to recon struct military bases along the coast. Parsons, famous for its sloppy Iraq work, was brought in for a major bridge construction project in the Mississippi. Fluor, Shaw, Bechtel, CH2M Hill – all top contractors in Iraq – were hired by the government to provide mobile homes to evacuees just ten days after the levees brokes. Their contracts ended up totaling $3.4 billion, no open bidding required.”
If you haven’t read that book, I highly recommend it. It is a brutal eye opener for the rubbish that Cheney and company have been pedaling for years now. It talks about “the rise of disaster capitalism” all over the world over the last 40 to 50 years or so. Starts by laying the start of the problem on the doorstep of the economist Milton Friedman (whose mantra these clowns have followed) and takes it on from there ….
FEMA wasn’t even trying as their “bosses” saw “other opportunities” in New Orleans …..
juliem
I’ve got it but haven’t read it yet (I’ve got 40 books in that category). Now that the horror of the Bush years is almost over, I’m thinking of reading a few more positive books. There don’t seem to be too many on my “unread” bookshelf. They’re almost all depressing. These Howard/ Bush years have affected me worse than I realised.
But what can be learnt from them? I worry about the NEXT wacko Liberal and / or Republican who will probably win in 8 – 12 years time.
Glen some of your points hav validity and others I difer on
“GFC is just to blame for the Democrats too, …the Republicans didnt change this and neither did the Democrats when they came to power in 2006, both parties are to blame.”
Agree , how this became a ‘TRepublicon” only brand blame reflects on th Liberal Media , and clever Democrat & inept Republicon politcal handling of th issue Spin won
Th CDO’s etc mainly started from 2001 so Republicons had longer control of Congress but Democrats had th sharp enfd when red alert warning were there High degree of shared blame is due
Katrina , well FEMA st.ffed up ….again some blame everywhere ..Bush gets blame for Browns appointment , managers under gotta take some blame as does Mayor Nagin who almost got off scott free but had alot of power Plus huge natural disaster responses often mean people ar not experiensed compared to 2nd time one occurs responses Main blame goes to FEMA managers right down What my critic of Bush lwas his no urgency of Leadership & prioritising & that is a big blame criticism
Iraq , thats Bush’s blame baby all alone Shift of empfasis from Aghganistan is also primary Bush , although would luv to know how much Intell Agencys hav some responsibility for info given re risks
Once one goes into bush’s record in Gitto , ‘torture’ sanctioning , renditions , jurispurdense , given iraq , then his record reely deteriorates I do agree however that no 9/11 we will never know if he’d been average POTUS but he was less than that
What about the Illiberal media? You never mention them.
So Iraq wasn’t core ‘left’? Just checking…
Obama and young voters.
http://www.newsvine.com/_news/2008/11/07/2084188-young-voters-not-essential-to-obama-win
Postscript to the election from North Carolina
….
I have this theory; people don’t like to be told what they are.
Great little article about a longserving Whitehouse butler.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/06/AR2008110603948.html
Oh no, Mugabe hasn’t paid his phone bill again – he had to congratulate Obama via the state run newspaper:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24618301-23109,00.html
Here’s one that is difficult to get the head around. Something about an extremist evangelical church picketing the funeral of the President elect’s grandmother, but a bit much for the average non believer I’d say. This is the outfit that the Chaser and Michael Moore have lampooned.
http://digg.com/world_news/Westboro_Church_to_Picket_Obama_s_Grandmother_s_Funeral
I’ve been unable to post for a couple of days, but felt my concession speech for Juliem’s contest could be delayed no longer.
Firstly, my wholehearted and unreserved congratulations to our dual winners, David and Ron, and I wish them well in the days ahead (what say they about NZ?). I now offer them my full support.
All the same, I believe that my campaign deserves some small measure of recognition for the fact that, despite being slightly below the EV number in picking 312, I correctly called Obama losing MO and winning NE2, and CA as the over 270 state and, most sagaciously of all, Obama’s % of the vote.
Nevertheless, due to the fact that my miniscule miscalculation in the EV total is akin to McCain’s miscalculation of selecting Palin for his Veep running mate, I graciously, humbly and abjectly offer my unqualified concession to the contest victors.
Seriously, many thanks again to Juliem for all the time she put forth to provide us with so much amusement. Better than my Melbourne Cup sweep.
showson, no iphone 4 me. Am using nokia n82 vgood mobile, tough n versatile. Am vsurprise to discover how available the wless is. Yes even in remote patagonia
i did post on the day that palin was picked that obama has won
Not sure if anyone else has pointed this out in response to the query early in this thread about the Roman Catholic voters. Joe Biden is RC.
‘Onya Finnigans!
#354: Read their critique of Australia here.
They’re an association of racists and homophobes who picket funerals simply as a way of generating publicity.
The U.S. Congress had to pass an act last year to stop them picketing at military funerals. Apparently now it is illegal in the U.S. to protest within 250 metres of a military funeral; a law devised essentially to stop that bunch of lunatics from plying their trade.
Seems like there is going to be an attempt to change some of the electoral system as a result of this election:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/us/politics/07voting.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
I want an iPhone, but I hate long term contracts.
Having said that, if wifi is everywhere as you suggest, then maybe a prepaid one would be OK.
I imagine Obama would veto any law that seeks to make it HARDER for people to vote.
Apparently a Republican is going to move to have Ted Stevens expelled from the Senate if he is re-elected:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15392.html
Slightly off topic – well, totally actually – but just finished watching a documentary on Johnny O’keefe. At the very end of the credits was the following acknowledgement:
“Special thanks to Ed St John”
It seems our ESJ is a man of many talents.
This ESJ is the head honcho of Warner Music Australia.
http://www.aria.com.au/pages/more-information.htm
includes a happy snap of the ARIA EStJ
http://www.aria.com.au/pages/images/bio_ed_st_john.jpg
He was also a pop singer of no great distinction in the 1970s.
Are you sure you’re not confusing him with Jeff St John ?
And is he the son of the late former Liberal MP of the same name?
Or Olivia Newton St John?
You are quite correct, Frank. Dude in the wheelchair, right?
Correct, he has Spina Bifida like me
Jeff now lives in Perth and performs standards as Jeffery St John & The Embers.
http://www.jeffreystjohnandtheembers.iinet.net.au/
If I couldn’t remember his name correctly, I suppose it’s possible I was also mistaken about his mediocrity. Mind you, I was watching old TMG clips on YouTube earlier today, and even those titans of the age were not all that I remembered them to be.
Wash thy mouth out – you need a musical Edumacation
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=mXJUAMTTf2c
If you thought those were daggy, check out his first solo hit
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=k1fvYjSfsis
The US economy Lost 240,000 Jobs in October, Pushing Unemployment Up to 6.5 Percent, which is about what had been anticipated.
JJulian1009
#355 Concession Speech on Juliems e/v competion to th winners
Very moving JJulian 1009 concession speech gesture to David and I , and your comment “I believe that my (JJuklian1009) campaign deserves some small measure of recognition..” is quite justified & indeed it is JJulian1009
You ran a hard fought campaign & without using swift boating & ‘chad’ challenges like some “right” leaning contestants And selection of NE2 is especially comended for th campaign time spent I might add I quite frankley did looked briefly at NE2 ,
thought there was some reel chanse but unlikely on past history & militaries but anyway required too great campaign time using my over detailed methodologies for th one e/v , but not you you chased every single vote fighting to th end , a worthy campaign strategy
FINNS
#356
“even in remote Patagonia” Tirelessly roaming all parts of south America in true Amigo style….th Amigos continue to ride…everywhere
Note ESJ’s 15 minutes of fame & glory relating to a a JOK doc only lasted from #366 at 11.32 PM but got extinguished at 11.47 PM #367
ONE OF MOST MOVING ARTICALES of US election was posted by Steve about th black 34 years serving White House butler Whilst its long , its emotave in meaning and saves its most special message for th last lines , and well worth reading , perhaps (hope) he will get an invitation on Inaugauration Day So Ilm reposting in case it was missed
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/06/AR2008110603948.html
Washington Post hav just archived it in th last 1/2 hour ! Cheeky , Still woth joining as a free archive member to read it
JJ, glad you see you back again. Good thing we didn’t need my sister’s vote in Missouri
……
To all that have a weekend & want the behind the sceene story on Obamas victory now that election is done read here -
http://www.newsweek.com/id/167582
“Its called how he did it”. From little things big things grow!
Plouffe is denying it but where there is smoke, there is usually fire
….
Does anyone know what they are waiting on before they officially declare Missouri? I’ve tried several sites but haven’t been able to glean any useful information …..
From Daily Kos site, a quick but simple chart showing Dems gains this election:
The +4 for Republicans in Louisana reflects the exodus of the black population post Katrina
Juliem it appears you forgot to read the Boonville Daily News.
http://www.boonvilledailynews.com/news/x635432565/McCain-Obama-race-tests-Mo-bellwether-status
Well you’d assume Obama couldn’t catch up from those numbers.
Obama won NE-02, taking his tally to 365.
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10481441
Oh my, a President who can INTENTIONALLY make jokes, including some about himself!
http://www.slate.com/id/2204042/
Bush makes accidental jokes, that’s different.
Ok, William
(and Ron/David) …. IF Obama gets 5854 of those 7100 votes, I’m in ….. fat chance I think though 
…. (would mean he’s getting 82% of the provisional votes and they’ve more or less split the state 50/50 at this point)
Thanks, Steve, for that word. I knew it was somethinng of that sort but couldn’t find a news reference to say exactly ……
Juliem, must admit it was my first reading of the Boonville Daily news too. I was most impressed with their scary electoral map.
Julie, great to see you’re still doing the good hard yakka to help make this blog as reality-based as possible. Extra congrats on your call that a significant % of Floridian Cuban Hispanics would vote for Obama, which largely accounts for the swing back to the Dems from 2004 after Gore won FL in 2000.
My Repub brother in Colorado is sulking and “scared”, but I take immense satisfaction that my vote in CA is 1/10,000,000 responsible for putting Obama over the 270 EV’s. :>)
As for your Sis in Missouri, Steve’s post #384 is most pertinent and interesting. Thanks, Steve. I’ve lived among the Boonvillians and thus my call for No on Mo in your EV contest.
Re: the national presidential ballot total and final %. It’s still too early to be certain, but I hope you’re correct that this will be the highest % since the mid sixties when we baby boomers first came on board.
Also, there is a major controversy brewing whether or not Obama is a baby boomer ( 4 Aug. 1961). My take is that he is the arch between the two generations. Notice I didn’t say “the bridge between” in order to obviate any verbal association with Sarah Palin’s bridge (and sentences) to nowhere!
Gore didn’t win Florida in 2000 though.
Ron at #377
I deeply appreciate your generous and statesmanlike response to my concession speech, which displays the same perspicacity with which you (and Ralph, of course) won Juliem’s EV contest.
Did you notice how desperately Juliem is still clinging to dreams of vindication via the remaining MO provisional votes! lol :>)
Sorry, that was meant to be David in line 2.
One of the major problems for the US economy is that as official interest rates have been cut, mortgage rates have hardly moved down at all. At least the latest massive cut in the UK looks as though it is going to be passed on to customers.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7716086.stm
I hope Tim Blair is on Insiders tomorrow. I want him to be asked what drugs he was smoking when he said “don’t count McCain out yet”. He only lost in a landslide.
Itep @ 391
That was meant to be a jocular post. Nevertheless, I apologise for making that historically incorrect statement about Florida. The 8% swing in Florida is one of the most amazing (along with the 17%+ in Utah), and I didn’t pick Obama to win Florida in Juliem’s EV contest.
For anyone else who might not know how Bush won Florida in 2000, the Democratic-appointed majority of the Florida Supreme Court ruled the recount should continue, but the Republican-appointed majority of US Supreme Court voted 5-4 to stop the recount, thus debunking the myth of the apolitical stature of both US state and federal supreme courts. The only small consolation for Dems is that they never had to endure sanctimonious Lieberman as Veep and then his likely winning of the Dem presidential nomination this year (and I thought that in 2000).
jjulian1009, that is just too funny.
But weren’t people in Utah voting for Obama because they thought it would bring on the third coming of Christ?
You know, like how some conservatives have now admitted the only reason they voted for McCain was because they hoped he would die, thus leaving Suitcase Palin in charge.
jj, this is what she told me (and one of the reasons I’ve commented this week that the Repubs are walking aroudn like zombies)
Of course she is whinging about the Chief of Staff appointment. She also doesn’t seem to understand that the economic problems preceeded this election. They haven’t suddenly appeared this week in the last 72 to 96 hours. Obama will make it better. If she is hurting now in the short run, she ought to be blaming that on the Repubs and then have voted Dem. this year as many registered Repubs did who were primarily concerned about their pocketbooks. Also fails to recognize the impact of the foreign misadventures of GB too.
jj, I’ve posted something about my sister’s comments to me several days ago but it got caught up in William’s spam filter as the filter didn’t like at least one word that she used
……. catch up later with post #399 (I believe) when it gets off of the moderation queue …..
jjulian1009, after the Supreme Court ruled the media recount study found that under the system of limited recounts in selected counties as was requested by the Gore campaign, the only way that Gore would have won was by using counting methods that were never requested by any party, including “overvotes” — ballots containing more than one vote for an office.
All other types of recounts had Bush winning.
The event you’re spinning is just not correct.
ShowOn,
Good call. lol
My take on Utah is that it’s pure Romney territory, and they were browned off that Mitt was spurned for Veep candidate by McCain. I was living in trepidation that McCain would pick Romney because his genuine executive experience as a successful businessman and governor of a large Democratic state (Mass.) would have provided strong support in a difficult economic environment without looking as connected to the Bush administration failures as McCain with his 90% voting record.
My assumption for the reason that Arkansas still went +5 for McCain despite their Gov. Huckabee being spurned by McCain for Veep nomination is that it was trumped by Hillary PUMA voters (Party Unity My Ass) when she was spurned by Obama for Veep as well as the hits that their good ole’ boy Bill Clinton took for his allegedly racist comments during primaries.
“AT LEAST two of Australia’s largest corporate bookmakers are refusing to pay out on tens of thousands of bets laid on Barack Obama’s victory – on the grounds that he may be killed before he is inaugurated.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/bet-his-life-on-it-bookies-hold-obama-payout/2008/11/07/1225561136611.html
A completely ridiculous scenario.
Re 392,
I am really in much the same boat as William, so so very close yet so far
…. I do take pride though in getting close 
…..
Re. Missouri though – compare the Missouri map to the Ohio one. In Ohio, Obama won only the metropolitan areas around the cities (Columbus, Dayton, Cinncinnati, etc.) and the northern swatch of border counties with Pennsylvania. The southern ones voted with West Virginia
. African Americans are not farmers near as I can tell {although to fair, there might be an isolated one or two or three if we’re lucky out there} and live in concentrated areas in and around the cities. IF NOT for the abundance of cities in Ohio, they would have turned out just like Missouri. ALL of their rural counties voted for McCain.
What Missouri needs are some more major population centers and not just country towns …..
and in spite of this, Missouri swung too to Obama compared to 2004 by +7 so even the country hacks were moving, just not fast enough ….. if Obama’s first term is a good one, Missouri should move Dem. next presidential election ….
The result in Florida was SO CLOSE, that if EVERY vote in the ENTIRE state had been recounted, Gore could’ve won.
That is what the supreme court should’ve insisted happen for the sake of democracy.
ltep @ 403, betcha that those agencies are run by Lib sympathetic folks …..
jj – again, the spam filter has complained about a word I used in post #404, I was comparing Missouri to Ohio and why Ohio went democratic this time and missouri did not, check back in for #404 once William is up and running
What a nonsense that story is ltep. Bookmakers don’t pay out on any election until the person is sworn in. The same will happen with my bet on Labour in NZ tonight. I will win and be paid if Labour get sworn in and lose if a mob of shepherds are sworn in.
If you read the rest of the article it’s pretty explicitly pointed out that the bet was always going to paid out on the inauguration regardless of who won.
Obama’s secret service motorcade has already had one run in with a wayward driver:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/06/obamas-motorcade-interrup_n_141966.html
ShowsOn Gore just needed to win his home state…he couldnt so he lost.
I did read the rest of the article. It was a completely ridiculous scenario for the ’senior Sportsbet bookie’ to have raised.
Glen it’s a moot point to make. If Gore was legitimately elected in Florida the result in his own state would’ve been irrelevant.
I still hold that Bush’s election was legitimate and for people to still be claiming that he lost the election or that Gore won Florida is incorrect.
Glen, I was talking about FLORIDA.
Tennessee has 11 EV….if Gore had carried his home State he would have been on 277 and Bush on 260 EV…
Gore should have won his home state and if he had the dodgy result in Florida wouldnt have mattered squat!
A completely irrelevant point to make Glen.
Actually no it isnt Itep.
It is entirely relevant because if you were a Senator of a State and you couldnt even win it or try to win it in your bid for the Presidency you really need to have a hard look at yourself.
Gore would have been President had he just won his home State. So all this complaining about Florida is pointless, if your man had just won tennessee then he’d have won.
Snap.
But if he had lawfully won Florida the result in Tennessee would not have mattered, whether he ’should’ have won it or not.
The question is whether the Supreme Court erred in its decision, and I can’t see a legal reason that it did. The legal logic behind the decision was sound.
Itep, I respect your viewpoint that Bush would have won Florida even if the recount had been allowed to continue by the US Supreme Court, and I have already apologised to you for my making a joke about it.
Everything I said in my post about the Federal and Florida supreme courts is strictly factual. All the justices on both courts voted in line with the party which had appointed them, which is what debunks the myth of the US having genuine separation of powers with apolitical supreme courts. This is completely irrelevant to which candidate would have actually won the 2000 presidential ballot recount.
If you want to carry this discussion further, it will have to be with someone else, as I have to take my family to lunch now. Cheers!
Whether they voted on the lines of which party appointed them is neither here no there. What matters is whether their legal reasoning is sound. If you can point to an adequate flaw in their legal reasoning then that’d be different.
Well at least some of the other judges thought there was a flaw in their legal reasoning which is why they voted the other way.
So it’s pretty obvious it’s not a strict interpretation of the law because then everyone would vote the same, no? Opinions and biases clearly come into play.
Yes, but you could argue that no matter which way a court decides. The system is, the majority decision of a court is the one which is legally valid. The majority reached a decision that is legally sound, it is the final court in the jurisdiction so that ends it. He was legitimately elected.
Ok, the Dems are in now for sure in GA
…
Another bank in Texas has failed.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/companies/bank_failure/?postversion=2008110719
I said as soon as she was picked that Palin would be the gift that keeps on giving. And it looks like she will keep on giving for another four years and ensure Obama is a two term POTUS. Keep drinking the Kool Aid, Repugs.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2012/69_of_gop_voters_say_palin_helped_mccain
Diogenes, this one is good too.
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/07/palin-on-the-leakers-those-guys-are-jerks/
Diogenes, it looks like someone wants to be a doctor but doesn’t know it yet!
http://www.boingboing.net/2008/11/07/-a-scapular-art-dres.html
It’s good news for the Democrats that they’ll be getting a run-off in GA, but I think the Republicans will win.
At the risk of sounding like a sore loser, I’d like to quote my post from “Presidential Election minus 5 days” Sunday 2 November:
“Julie,
I’d like to submit a prediction:
Obama 364 – Kerry States + Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada. My quirky guess is 1 vote from Nebraska.
As for the decider on count night, I’m thinking Colorado”.
As I’ve previously acknowledged, I’d calculated incorrectly, thinking that added up to 364, when it’s in fact 365. The errorin the States is that I expected Missouri to come across, and Indiana to stay Republican.
story about the efforts to get the Dems votes in North Carolina
Sarah Palin… thinks N.A.F.T.A. means “Need Another Fifty Thousand for Accessories”. – David Letterman
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/07/lettermans-top-10-sarah-p_n_142082.html
Juliem
#388 “Ok, William …IF Obama gets 5854 of those 7100 (provisional) votes (in MO) , I’m in ….. fat chance I think though…”
I’m terribly disappointed to let you know ca;cs below on th 7100 provisional votes , especially as everytime I log onto this thread th despotic former King leaves th following up:
“Long live th King…..the truly momentous and inspirational aspect of yesterday’s result was my ALMOST perfect prediction of it, as published in Crikey last Friday.”
Seing th simple rules were to tell you a single e/v figure …no matter how calculated (probably presently 365) and th tipping State (ultimately CA) , th former King’s 375 (with 2 States wrong) indeed was almost right , your 376 was almost right , Grog & Peter made blues , and all th guys at 353 were also almost right , but th (present) predicted 364 e/v figure with CA is presently th right predicted figure ………Which leads to your 7100 provisional votes….you said you hope Obama gets 5854 out of th 7100 but sorry to disappoint but th remaining 1246 votes also hav to go to either Obama or McCain Actualy th McCain lead is 5859 and for Obama to win he’d need 91.3% of those 7100 provisional votes (if all were accepted) Also I’d assume 50% probably will be rulked inaligible anyway on registration reasons , prior voting etc as that’s usually why they ar treated initially as provisional
Your hoped for 82% of them would need 9100 rather than 7100 provisional votes and even at 82% I suspect that’s too high a % , and am posting now rather than you hoping till 18th November final count As for th King I was probabley in such existing disfavour of th Royal Court that redemption was never likely anyway
I’ve updated the USA maps section at my website, including presidential and Senate maps back to 1789. I will add new detailed House maps when the results are finalised.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/usamapindex.shtml
“Exit poll survey confirms partisan shift”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jL8ihdCofjv-TbxC4kp1JNJbeTVAD94ALFPO0
‘Democrats made up 39 percent of the electorate and Republicans 32 percent in a national exit poll’
ps adam you latest map shows 363-shouldnt it be 365,great effort BTW
from same article
“What if it had been Hillary?
There’s no way to be sure, but she might have won by even more than Obama did.”
lol
The Associated Press has caught pollbludger disease
Adam
Your 2008 presently shows Obama 363 to Mccain 174 (with NE 5 red)
Tink 2008 should show Obama 364 to McCain 173 (with NE 4 , 1 undecided)
(you may hav worked off some US media also showing same)
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/bustech/story.html?id=28357389-5afa-49ad-bb68-3e82b8562795
just received this link as well-”The good, the bad & the very expensive: Marketing lessons from the U.S. campaign”
“When you have a candidate who actually outspends McDonald’s on marketing (Obama bought $77 million U.S. of advertising in the first two weeks of October, about what the giant burger chain invests in a typical month), it’s hard not to see politics as largely a marketing and messaging exercise”
21st century politics
the medium is the messenger
Hmmmm
someone said Israel will not llom large or that jews would not warm to obi
“In strikingly racist remarks, the father of Rahm Emanuel has said Israel will benefit from Obama’s choice of White House chief of staff.
“Obviously he will influence the president to be pro-Israel. Why wouldn’t he be? What is he, an Arab? He’s not going to clean the floors of the White House,” Benjamin Emanuel, father of Rahm Emanuel, told the Israeli Ma’ariv daily. ”
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=74697§ionid=351020206
Gusface
#433/434 ““What if it had been Hillary?
The Associated Press has caught pollbludger disease”
What part of AAP polling (quite demmographicaly detailed) of Hillary