Best of luck to Barack Obama as well. However, the truly momentous and inspirational aspect of yesterday’s result was my almost perfect prediction of it, as published in Crikey last Friday. Obama has carried the erstwhile red states of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Florida and Indiana, with two states coming down to the wire: Missouri, where McCain leads by 5868 votes (0.2 per cent), and North Carolina, where Obama leads by 14,053 (0.4 per cent). I tipped Obama to gain all of these states and no more. I gather late counting of declaration votes is unlikely to change any leads, so it appears those 0.2 per cent of voters in Missouri have stood between me and my moment of destiny. Better luck next time, I guess. To those who tipped McCain victories or record-breaking Obama blowouts and find themselves wondering what my secret is, one simple piece of advice: believe the polls (or Intrade if you prefer – it will usually tell much the same story). They may not be perfect, but they will outperform your own “informed conjecture” well over 50 per cent of the time, no matter how clever you think you are.
If the last two states play out as expected, the final result will be 364 electoral votes for Obama against 174 for McCain, pending one complication: Nebraska, which along with solidly Democratic Maine divides its college votes by congressional district. Two of the three districts have stayed Republican, but in a third Obama trails by just 569 votes, and thus stands a chance to make it 365-173. In any event, the joint winners of the informal Poll Bludger tipping contest (thanks to Juliem for conducting this) will be David Walsh and Ron, who I gather will win a tie-breaker ahead of fellow 364 Club members Grog and Peter Fuller.
Finally, our good friends at UMR Research have published qualitative polling on Australians’ attitudes to the President-elect. Those who harbour an unfashionable element of cynicism about the great man might want to keep a sick bag handy.
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Washington retired after two terms, which given his immense prestige was considered very remarkable at the time – many wanted to make him president for life. Thereafter it became the convention – if it was good enough for Washington, it was good enough for everyone else. I’m not sure how many presidents actually could have won a third term, but at any rate no-one tried until FDR in 1940, which he justified on the grounds that there was a world war on and he was indispensible. The Republicans of course were very angry about this because they thought they could win if FDR retired.
Ron
did you go in the crikey comp?
the amercian studies one?
Adam
so although not written in the original constitution, the R’s decided to ‘channel’ the founding fathers and rely on a “convention” to enact a law.
why wasnt it challenged /can it ever be overturned?
Neocons of the world, start squirming.
The Obama Agenda
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Bear in mind, also, that this year’s presidential election was a clear referendum on political philosophies — and the progressive philosophy won.
So a serious progressive agenda — call it a new New Deal — isn’t just economically possible, it’s exactly what the economy needs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/opinion/07krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
Yes Gusface by another amendment. Chances of that? Slim to none. It’s probably good in a way, rids politics of the incumbent factor and forces parties to refresh at least once every 8 years.
I wish we’d only had Howard for 2 terms.
Gusface
“It was quite extensive (thats why i posted it) but I dont care for what ifs -only cold hard facts
just find it ironic that AP would use the term we used here on pollbludger”
I tink what you ar saying is you’re not interested in what may hav been as its academic My view is th “cold hard facts” hav pretty well noew been laid out …by AAP and th benefit i saw as I said was more that Republicon comment i’ve seen has complained 1/ as an excuse of Obama’s war chest 450 million to McCain’s 84 million and 2/ as an excuse Hillary just lost and had she not th Republicons would hav beaten her
Well th AAP Poll of 18,000 with sample error of of only 1% shows Hillary would hav won probably not certainly more easily and statisicaly destroys both Republicon excuses ….Republicons ar left to blame themselves , and that was my interest in AAP questions
ron
faced with the truth most neocons deserve the line from some film i never saw
“you cant handle the truth”
granted with hill it would have produced a different result but the “vibe” would have been different imho- so it really ends up as acadaemic
a ‘vibe’ person you ar , thought you liked ‘and they played waltz sing matilda” …..well Republicons and there Fox fiends ” cant handle the truth” that a black guy won and won easily as it was against all there theories , all AAP did has left there alternative excuses in a rubble also …so guess theyll argue Mccain was not consevative enough 9which 100% in reverse of what they should be tinking)
and th band played waltz sing matilda
ron
dont understand the picture you are trying to paint oldson?
Maybe the Repubs and the Liberal Party can sit down and discuss that they are not conservative enough. And go to the next election being even more neocon than usual.
Howard was able to bask in the neocon glow of the Bush administration, the George’s little Sheriff. Well how much more will Obamas progressive light shine on Kev.
Wonder how the Liberals are going to try and undermine Obama if he sets ‘bad’ examples for Kev or does stuff that supports what Kev might do, like running up a deficit maybe.
Kev could not do worse than associating with Obama, wonder if he has a ranch to visit?
Fox are going to start campaigning to make the Republicans shift further right, you know think they can win by talking about abortion and gay marriage.
Apparently the Western White House is going to be in Hawaii rather than Chicago.
That’s actually more convenient than the U.S. mainland for an Oz P.M.
vibes will pass …sooner or later , what will come after that hopefully is concrete outcomes and its up to Democrats to do so Th song that a poster shared my high view of and i thought mistaeknly was you , had many diferent messages that th Republicons with Iraq still do not understand nor understand there ultra consevative values ar not why they won in past or why McCain’s lack of them lost th Republicons th electon this time
That is what people had suggested would happen, denial. Just as Abbott couldn’t believe Australia tossed out a ‘good’ government, the people just didn’t understand. The Republicans in denial can make the excuse that McCain wasn’t a genuine Republican and thus didn’t represent the ideology in its purest form.
This is of course madness. Not only did Americans vote for a Democrat it was a black Democrat. Bigotry and racism are the foundations of neocon electioneering, the appeal to the base fears and prejudices of people, who happily comply. Do the Republicans think that they were so un-Republican that Republican voters decided to vote for a black person? The message is of course the opposite. Voters were so fed up with Bush and Republican brand that they did something they may have not have done otherwise, vote against their prejudices.
Ron
Congratulations on your excellent prediction in the comp
I should say too that while I didn’t want to debate it further in previous threads, I also agree Hillary would have been very competitive in this election. With her as the democrat candidate the republicans wouldn’t have even gotten their Palin bounce. I hope Obama uses her in government in some capacity, because she is still a smart and capable politician, and they need a few people to fix multiple problems.
Ronster, who will be further to the left; Obama, the Senate, or the House of Representatives?
Supplementary question, who will be more core ‘left’? Obama, the Senate, or the House of Representatives?
Ron
no
I still have my idealism just my pragmatism triumphs most times
“Th song that a poster shared my high view of and i thought mistaeknly was you ‘
ron if you remember I posted it.and ps none us hold the high ground on ‘views’
Probably the economy only needs to be somewhat better or in some sort of sustained recovery in 4 years time for Obama to get reelected. You would think that the USA economy would indeed be in recovery by then.
Early prediction, McCain will vote with the Democrats more often than the Republicans in the new Senate.
Now that he doesn’t have the RNC and Sarah Suitcase to lug around, he can go back to being a real MAVERICK, with Joe Liberman as GOOSE.
This is one of the best side effects of the entire election. If people keep voting against their prejudices long enough, we won’t be able to meaningfully say they have prejudices anymore.
Of course it is crazy for the republicans to try to move even further to the right. But they are still in the denial stage. I expect next they will move on to anger (at the media?) and then depression.
I think so too. But he needs a big domestic win, like his tax plan by say mid next year, and health care operational with 12 months to go.
If he is going to have a plan to create manufacturing jobs, please let it be in renewable energy tech.
They seemed to spend most of the campaign attacking the media. Which to me is a stupid thing for a political party to do, that is how you get your message out!
I think there is a connection here between shifting the party to the right, and trying to set Palin up as the defacto leader of the party. She is supposedly a moderate in Alaska, but she kept that side of herself completely hidden during this campaign.
Gusface
you misunderstood what i meant , i meant only a poster shared my high view of th song itself as a song and what it says so well As for ideals and pragmatism I agree thats always a clash for believers on balance , and this electon i took former over later and was very popular
Any Democrat win is a victory for the USA and the world and a chance to clean out the Whitehouse and start again. Clinton would have done a good job of course, especially with Bill there to be a sounding board and give the benefit of experience.
However their system put forward Obama and as it may turn out he will be an even better option than Clinton if only that his election is a potent symbolic shift in thinking and attitude for the nation and for the world’s view of the USA. Obama is the literal blank black-board and he may more than anyone else have the authority to write what he wants on it, and have it accepted. He will given much more room to move by the people you would think since he may to many represent more than just another change in leadership. He has a big ‘good will ‘ ticket to spend, hope he is smart enough to spend it wisely.
The proof will be in the eating of the pudding. But given the example of his life so far and the way he has been able to make it through these campaigns and keep it all together so well, you wouldn’t think he would stuff up for lack of intelligence and ability.
The Republicans in their denial may even enhance Obama’s work by fighting a dead and forgotten paradigm whilst Obama moves on with the world.
Don’t know if any of you caught up with Mark Knight’s very funny cartoon in the Melbourne Herald Sun today, but for those who didn’t it went as follows::
First picture – Rudd sitting at his office desk and a voice bubble from stage right saying ” Mr Rudd it’s the President on the phone.
Second picture – Rudd picking up phone and saying ” Hello Mr Obama.and congratulations on your win. It’s so good to talk to someone intelligent. That George Bush, what a dope. He didn’t even know what the G20 was…
Third picture – Voice bubble from the phone – This IS George Bush. I’m still the President until January.
Ron
ATBPWM- by eric bogle
still makes me cry every time.
u and i are onthe same path just different tracks
thanks Socrates I tink Hillary will stay in th senate and I feel only a few cabinet posts would hav used her abilities to maximun In th Senate Obama will need alot pf of pull from senior Democrats (and Hillary now has advanced status in th Party) to get some Agneda items through because there is so much cross th floor voting there and th 57 Democrat seats ar not all given on all Bills so she could be quite helpful there (although not apparently publicly but in reality effective helping th Administration in smooth transition of dificvcult Bills with Harry Reid , Pelosi etc )
What a system it is! Of course it is terribly expensive, but on the plus side it is highly participatory, because the party machines don’t determine the candidates. But also, it is a grueling process, that to get to be a viable candidate, let alone President means only those politically and personally fittest survive.
First they need to figure out all the things that Bush did wrong, write a long list, and see what makes them similar.
My feeling to the latter question is this; Bush based a lot of his most important decisions on hunches influenced by how he WANTED the world to be, not how it actually is.
Call this the reality deficit syndrome. I don’t think 1) Obama won’t suffer from this 2) I don’t think the Republicans have many members that DON’T view the world in this way.
What a genius system Ron!
Politicians actually voting based on what they think!
We should have that here.
Jim Cramer’s integration of immigration and housing and economic policies:
http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/judgments/2008/11/06/hey-barack-hire-me
TP@475
“Clinton would have done a good job of course, especially with Bill there to be a sounding board and give the benefit of experience”
this from obi’s transition team
-As a former Chief of Staff to Bill Clinton, John Podesta has plenty of White House experience to offer Mr Obama, as he helps lead the president-elect’s transition team.-
Nice.
This is the huge bonus of Obama winning, you get him in the big chair at the big desk, but you get a whole new administration, that won’t politicise things like the justice and defence departments.
and this bit is for ron,adam ,gg,finns etc
-Mr Podesta, who remained close to the Clintons during the Bush years, backed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. -
Ron
True about Hillary in the Senate. With their stupid arcane fillibuster system Obama will need to negotiate a few moderate republican senators on side to pass bills, like courting Fielding and Xenephone here.
It looks like Obama’s transition team is quite inclusive of different sections of the democrat party, so that is a good sign I think.
They seem to be checking everything, Clinton faction, Kennedy establishment, Obama’s backers, maybe even Kerry for Secretary of State.
Agree re inclusiveness accross Party Socrates , and th move appointing ex Billy man John Podesta who apparently has been working on transition for a few weeks shows good long term planning by th Leadership and use of an expereinced guy who does know pitfalls from th last transition & tink they will learn from that last time and make it quicker and more effective operationally earlier
shows
the scuttlebutt from the email i recieved pointed to the UN/supernumerary
though whether as a superambassador/ supernumerary
or not?
would suit bill as he luvs and is luvved by most of the 3rd world
lets wait and see
Bill Clinton as U.S. ambassador to the U.N.! That would be interesting.
But really he could be the President of the U.N. Ban Ki Moon is no Bill Clinton.
Well I hope the U.S. gets in there and REFORMS to U.N. If they could do that it would be a more credible forum that would be more influential in world affairs. If it keeps going a long as a body for kinds like Mugabe and Amdinejahd to make speeches in, then it will become irrelevant.
Just to underscore how silly the republicans desire to shift further to the right is, apparently Turnbull made a statement defending abortion here today. That would have been unthinkable under Howard just a year ago:
http://news.theage.com.au/national/turnbull-defends-abortion-20081108-5ki8.html
Personally I agree with Turnbull on this one. Besides, I do not think it appropriate for the State to legislate against something which is clearly still a divisive moral issue.
shows
the us would be able to now ,via stachmo bill ,reclaim the respect taht it so sorely needs.
where bush said ‘ya eva agin us or aginst us’
obama is saying ‘who dont i represent huh?’
The astonishing thing is, the debate here was done and dusted by about 1970.
In the U.S. it goes on and on and on. Could you imagine abortion being talked about for 10 minutes in a P.M. V Opposition Leader debate? Well that is what happened in the 3rd Presidential debate this year.
That’s a huge difference. Obama has moral authority around the world because of his life story.
I still believe it, the only thing that exceeds the stupidity of the U.S. is their genius. Their country has an astonishing ability to renew itself no matter how big the failure of catastrophe it encounters.
They’ll recover from Bush, he’ll be a forgotten man in 20 years time.
“I do not think it appropriate for the State to legislate against something which is clearly still a divisive moral issue.”
Problam i see with abortion , and indeed fertilization and gay marriage etc is th vocal minority often sensationalised with publicity by a hungry Media from both sides , seem hog limelight , inflence debate & politcans , to cloud what i suspect is a more balanced in middle view of many morally devisave issues of th silent majority
Whenever conscience votes are debated in parliaments around the country, the progressive position usually passes by a 2:1 ratio.
The only exception is issues related to homosexuals, like should they get access to IVF. Those votes are much closer. But stem cell research and abortion related issues usually pass 2:1, most labor MPs, and the left wing Liberal MPs support it.
Does this mean Australia should be considered a default centre-left country?
I agree that in Australia the majority of both the population (based on opinion polls) and politicians (based on conscience votes) usually vote for the “progressive” position on these issues. But still, the pollies rarely voice their positions publicly. Hence Turnbull’s statement is a change of tack. Of course, its awelcome one because , as you say, this debate is only sustained by a group of zealots who are not representative of mainstream views. If recent events have dented the credibility of these lobby groups, that is a very good thing.
I feel ‘oz’ has always been basicaly a centre left Country since Whitlam , with swingers prepared to vote ‘right’ when they tink Labor has run its course/st.ffed up and then ‘right’ usualy relies on wedgies , tax cut offers and National security to over ride populations natural centre left feelings to retain powers On other hand believe US is basicaly a centre right Country including big chunks of th democrat Party
ShowsOn
If a clear majority support a view, and have done for several decades, then perhaps its not so much the case that you are progressive if you support it, as those who oppose it are being quite reactionary.
I think this was one of the biggest spins (lies) told by the right in the Bush/Howard/Fox News era: they presented aggressive attacks on previously agreed social norms and human rights as being “conservative” rather than radical attempts at social counter-revolutions. Its high time they got called on it.
Ron
Despite my comments at 498 I agree with you on the US – it is more conservative than Oz and has been for a long time. The greater influence of religeon in the US is an obvious reason why.
Good point. I was going to write “liberal”, but I thought that may be confused as “Liberal Party”, which of course is the party that features most of the members opposed to such policies.
But it is interesting that for the first 70 years or so of the 20th Century, Democrats mainly held power. So it was like they had a slightly left party to balance the centre right structure of the government.
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