Best of luck to Barack Obama as well. However, the truly momentous and inspirational aspect of yesterday’s result was my almost perfect prediction of it, as published in Crikey last Friday. Obama has carried the erstwhile red states of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Florida and Indiana, with two states coming down to the wire: Missouri, where McCain leads by 5868 votes (0.2 per cent), and North Carolina, where Obama leads by 14,053 (0.4 per cent). I tipped Obama to gain all of these states and no more. I gather late counting of declaration votes is unlikely to change any leads, so it appears those 0.2 per cent of voters in Missouri have stood between me and my moment of destiny. Better luck next time, I guess. To those who tipped McCain victories or record-breaking Obama blowouts and find themselves wondering what my secret is, one simple piece of advice: believe the polls (or Intrade if you prefer – it will usually tell much the same story). They may not be perfect, but they will outperform your own “informed conjecture” well over 50 per cent of the time, no matter how clever you think you are.
If the last two states play out as expected, the final result will be 364 electoral votes for Obama against 174 for McCain, pending one complication: Nebraska, which along with solidly Democratic Maine divides its college votes by congressional district. Two of the three districts have stayed Republican, but in a third Obama trails by just 569 votes, and thus stands a chance to make it 365-173. In any event, the joint winners of the informal Poll Bludger tipping contest (thanks to Juliem for conducting this) will be David Walsh and Ron, who I gather will win a tie-breaker ahead of fellow 364 Club members Grog and Peter Fuller.
Finally, our good friends at UMR Research have published qualitative polling on Australians’ attitudes to the President-elect. Those who harbour an unfashionable element of cynicism about the great man might want to keep a sick bag handy.
780 Comments
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Not if the Opposition have decided to waste the Senate’s time as a deliberate tactic, as they clearly did in this instance. This is a very angry and bitter opposition. They hold Labor in absolute contempt and believe very strongly in their own right to rule. The Senate is their last redoubt and they intend using it to undermine the government in any way they can.
I’m aware of that but wonder whether the government thought of running the idea of a closure (or actually did run the idea) past the Greens, Xenophon and Fielding on that occasion. It was an obvious abuse of the Senate’s time and I have a feeling the Greens or Xenophon would’ve felt similarly.
I suppose the problem with that is twofold, firstly the Greens or Xenophon might object to doing that in principal (it curbing senators’ rights to speak on a bill). Secondly, Fielding is a dope.
Obviously the government can shut down the Coalition if the Greens + FF + X will support them. In this case (IIRC) both FF and X supported the Coalition on the issue, and were happy to let the debate run. (FF later changed his mind.) I don’t think they will consistently take that line however. It will depend on the issue and the atmospherics of the time.
They always expect better treatment than what they provided when in Government.
I don’t think they can really care less about the history and traditions of the Senate.
Wow Bill Kristol is a real neocon in all respects. Creepy.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/trevorcook/2008/11/09/kristol-palin-and-the-nyt/
More feet of clay … King Neocon is dead, long live the king!
I’m not sure if I’m the first person to ask this on this site, but since the Australian, US, Canadian and NZ elections are now over, what’s the next major election to look forward to?
I gather there’s probably some state elections coming up next year, but the next big one I can think of is in the UK in 2010. Is that right? (and what happens to Pollbludger until then)???
16 November: Guinea-Bissau legislative election
28 November: Romania legislative election
30 November: Cote d’Ivoire presidential election
7 December: Ukraine legislative election
18 December: Bangladesh legislative election
18 January 2009: El Salvador legislative election
15 March 2009: El Salvador presidential election
9 April 2009: Indonesia legislative election
3 May 2009: Panama presidential and legislative elections
19 May 2009: Malawi presidential and legislative elections
12 June 2009: Iran presidential election
14 June 2009: Bulgaria legislative election
14 June 2009: Luxembourg presidential election
14 June 2009: Luxembourg legislative election
5 July 2009: Mexico legislative election
14 September 2009: Norway legislative election
27 September 2009: Germany legislative election
14 June 2009: Luxembourg presidential election
should read
14 June 2009: Lithuania presidential election
Also Israel in February but I don’t think a date has been set yet
Israel should be interesting. Does anyone know how they are going with that “negative income tax” thingie they trialled about six months ago. ESJ was rabbiting on about the benefits of “negative income tax” a while ago.
http://www.worldwide-tax.com/israel/isr_econonews.asp
Hmm… I can see a very active thread on the Malawi presidential and legislative elections next year…
That said, the German and Israeli elections next year should be interesting. As should the Ukrainian election (although they seem to have one every year or so nowadays…)
Perhaps we should have an open thread for non-Oz elections? The occasional US election, like the GA run-off, British by-elections and general dross that shouldn’t go on the Oz/State threads could go there. A bit of a dumping ground for “non-core” business.
Bill Kristol was Dan Quayle’s Cheif of Staff.
Enough said…
Was that spelling intentional, or just Dan Quayle induced?
LOL! Must’ve been.
Quayle ran for President in 2000 remember. Would’ve he been worse than Bush?
MUST READ: TV SoundOff with Justin Linkins. A summary of the Sunday politics talk shows:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/09/tv-soundoff-sunday-talkin_n_142426.html
TBH it’s not something I’d really like to think about…
A good article from “The New Yorker” -
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/11/17/081117fa_fact_lizza?printable=true
Under the literal wording of Article II, Section I of the American Constitution, the President “shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.” So unless 5 Supreme Court justices somehow find a hidden exception in the above, yes Bush could pardon himself.
Congress would almost certainly try to amend the Constitution to prevent self-pardons in future but IMHO Bush could and would get away with it.
Whilst th Missouri Government stats do not show this , I understand there ar reports of an ERROR in MO counts in St Lois favouring Obama by 699 that would cut McCain’s lead from 5859 to 5160 (before alleged 7100 provions ar couunted)
Not offical but seems a total of 3156 extra votes added tcollectively to Obama/McCain with Obama getting 61% of them …..firstly some of there tally boards were not aadded up properly (gives me great confidenses in maths ) and also some military ballots were not even counted (do not know how that happens)
Assuming these figures ar right then margin is 5160…then assuming no other County made ‘tallying errors’ or missed out counting …and then assuming alleged 7100 provions ar actual number..then Obama needs now 86.3% of thiose 7100 to win (although expect about 50% would be inaligible anyway)
Tink I would be asking for a better electoral officials performanse in future if I was da Chief in MO
Pardon himself for what? Being a moron?
I was just answering an earlier question about possible last minute pardons – i was making fun of the far left in a pseudo-Swiftian way
He could kill Obama, get convicted and then pardon himself.
I presume he could give himself the same sort of pardon that Ford gave Nixon, a pardon for any or all offences committed while President.
The pardon is not prospective so he can’t be pardoned for things he hasn’t been charged with.
So he could blow up the Whitehouse and then pardon himself?
A tale of two states Kansas & next door Missouri on a colored 2008 electoral map just looks like KS strong red McCain 57/41 to MO pale red cliffhanger And yet under th map I tink is a story of 2 America’s when you look at Counties and there voting and thiose big state only figures hav a diferent shade & meanings
Blow th 2 states up by County side by side and all of KS is red by County except a small border section with MO inside east KS Then you see all of MO is also red by County except a small border section with KS inside west MO plus at other extrematitiy of MO where a small border section with IL inside east MO (apart from little Boone county in middle)
So both States which ar sort of rectangls hav reely only blue bits on there very extreme borders and its more than just Meidia steroatypes of rural Obama won about 3 out 90 counties ins maler KS 1.2 million In much largewr MO Obama only won 9 of 114 Counties
Obama’s close loss in MO is diue to his pull in 2 great cities , Kansas City MO in th extreme west bordar thats literaly accross th road from KS and ST Louis in th extreme east border thats literaly accross th road from IL These 2 cities & St Louis County total 858,104 for th 2 candidates and Obama won almost 70% of this vote Yet in rest of MO has a quite large population of 2,021,383 for th 2 candidates so thats alot of towns of size and McCain won 58%/42% (although repeating KS flow but with much bigger towns & peoples) Yet many problams of th big 2 MO cities and th rest ar similar in some ways and also MO is not a big geographical State so th dissimilarities , and religions and histories hav created a gulf of almost 2 States inside MO and wonder whether th tale under th coloured electoral maps red & blue maps by State is of interest to Media or if image of US as simply red and blue is easier to expalin of
Could I ask a favour regarding the election coverage? I was looking for footage and facts on the crowd in Grant Park, Chicago. Xanthippe said the scene of Grant Park when Obama’s victory was announced on CNN was a huge celebration from the 100,000+ crod. Cursed with being a mortgage-bound wage slave I missed it. Does anyone have a link to where it might be stored in cyber space? I suspect it will be an iconic image in years to come.
Also, does anyone have details of that crowd? I recognised it was big when I saw Obama’s speech on video, but I had no idea just how big till I looked at Grant Park on Google Earth today. That is one big park! That crowd must have been at least 100,000.
Socrates
It was estimated at 240,000.
Here are the photos.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-081104-obama-rally-grant-park-photogallery,0,647742.photogallery
Wanting to say, Bye Bye Bye, to the three dead heads, so supposedly smart and in control, that they thought, just because they were re-elected, that they were getting away with it.
How fantastic and delightful that not one of these guys was able to avoid the judgment and rejection, well overdue to them, from we, the voters.
Thank you, Australia, England, America!
Socrates, don’t know but this one might do?
……. I got into Google search under Images and put in the search terms “Grant Park Obama victory celebration” and came back with a heap of options, of course, one or another of them weren’t always the right ones but this one seems good ….
http://weblogs.cltv.com/entertainment/tv/metromix/lolla%20crowd.jpg
juliem 578
It is interesting isn’t it? My son was treated to the same ‘discrimination’ at school here in WA during the recent election. He was standing up during class activities and issuing little bits of advice to his class mates on how everyone should vote for labour and how the liberals were bad. A seriously intelligent boy some might say.
This was a little confronting for us, as from his point of view he was being picked on for supporting labour which would be a serious issue. From the teachers point of view of course she was disciplining him for disrupting the class!
I think the lesson is there is ALWAYS two sides to every story and if you wish to beleive everything reported in the American press as gospel… well you need to remember where Rupert Murdoch lives I guess.
Not saying it DIDNT happen you understand…….. just that circumstances sometimes dictate an activity is appropriate one time and not appropriate at another.
Ron I suspect your posts are quite interesting but until you learn to spell I simply cannot read them.
Well, Israel looks as interesting as always on the electoral front, and recent polls look close…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/livni-takes-poll-lead-as-israel-heads-for-election-975486.html
Hah, forming government with 29 seats out of 120.
Ron @ 579
You are spot on about MO. I lived in the exurbs of Kansas City, and that’s why I voted No on MO in Juliem’s contest.
By contrast, each of the last three years I have visited my brother in a solidly Repub. House of Reps district 100Km south of Denver. The difference between MO and CO is that Hispanics have doubled their % of CO’s Registered Voters since 2004 and had a strong GOTV ground game to give Obama the pickup margin of 8.6%. MO’s demographics would have changed negligibly since 2004, I’d surmise.
To further support your point, Obama’s homestate of Illinois, on MO’s eastern border, has similar hybrid blue/red demographics to MO, but the difference here is that Chicago’s Dem population overwhelms the Repubs even though their Red Congressional districts cover at around 80% of the area of Illinois.
Krugman
Note also the right trying to misrepresent history.
Franklin Delano Obama?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/opinion/10krugman.html?hp
OMG …….. she is way more than a few kanagaroos short …….
jjulian1009
#589
Thanks for that info on Chicago following my #579 re MO Prevoiusly i’ve ignored IL as its been an easy blue State for last 4 elections (although not before)
So therefore until your coment I had not realized how much Chicago does dominate IL Actual 2008 results bear your view out strikingly …Cook county 2,060,000 Obama/McCain voters (won 76/23 by Obama) with a margin of 1,105, 935 Yet IL is not a small State , with obama /McCain total voters of 5,269,141 yet th rest of counties only contributed a further 211.604 Obama margin
Only dissimalarity I noticed to MO was IL has quite a spread of smaller blue counties , whereas as mentiond MO only has its 2 border cities (at extrematies of State plus Boone in middle)
Having lived in west MO (Kansas City) , jjulian1009 do you know why Crawford (KS) on th KS west border with MO was won by Obama narrowly , yet all th other Counties around it on both th KS and MO side ar very strong Republicon Its even more surprising as apart from Wyandotte & Douglas in KS accross th road from Kansas City , Crawford County KS was th only oither of th 90 odd KS Countes to vote for Obama and yet geographicaly in KS its all out on its own)
“Obama Wants Lieberman To Remain In Democratic Caucus”
Can understand why , each vote may be critical but frankley Lieberman to me has been not just a problem to Obama but to Democrats beforehand and I would not put too much faith in his loyalty Chris Dodd who has spoken for him probably fot poitcal numbers reasons is th reverse , and principalled even standing up to Pelosi , obama etc in pushing to stop illegal telcos getting immunity from Bush’s corrupt wiretapping , also pushed on own re for closing Gittmo at one stage , hav reel alot of time fot Chris Dodd
Ron, good call on IL. Sorry, I don’t know anything about Kansas except Dorothy went back home there after visiting the Land of OZ, and it is reputed that some Americans, when euphoric, sing “I’m as corny as Kansas in August”!
As for Lieberman staying in Dem Caucus, now that Dems have at least 55 Senators, whether Lieberman is in Caucus is irrelevant because plenty of Blue-Dog conservative, most Southern, Dem Senators will vote against Dem party majority on big cloture bills, particularly military funding. What Lieberman’s blubbering about is that Reid wants to strip him of his Chair of the Homeland Security Comm., which was the prestigious post that he held in last Congress as his price so that the Dems could have majority “control” of the Senate. If they let Lieberman keep that Chair, it will be astounding.
As for Dodd, that’s just Connecticut (my birth state) politics for his fellow home state Senator. By the way, Conn. Republican House Representative, Schays, lost the last New England Republican seat in the House!
Liebermann should be kept within the caucus, lest he defect to the GOP and give them a safe senate seat in New England.
I agree with jjulian’s point that the question of whether the Dems get to 60 or not is fairly irrelevant at this point, because of blue-dog Dems (as well as DLC Dems). There are currently 2 Democratic senators in MT, ND, AR, VA and CO. There are also Democratic senators in LA, SD, NE, MO, IN and NC. All of these Senators are not going to vote for liberal bills just because Obama (or Pelosi) introduces them. Regardless of whether Martin wins in GA or Begich wins in AK, none of them will vote for liberal legislation unless there is a generous slice of pork accompanying it.
What makes it worse for the Dems is that there are hardly any moderate Republicans left in the US senate that would cross the floor to vote with them on liberal legislation. There are 2 Senators in ME, Specter in PA and Voinovich in OH. The rest are tried and true conservatives…
jjulian 1009 : “strip him (lieberman) his Chair of the Homeland Security Comm”
yes agree astounded if he kept it , especialy on its high standing but maybe even also this role is part of security framework and I feel Obama needs not just someone skilled but his own man he knows is delivering for th Party/Country (without other Agenda’s)for which obama has key responsibility so reckon he will definitively lose it but unfortunately get a ‘bone’ (undeserved) Also could Lieberman reely be better than 50% as a GOP candidate in New England against a reasonable Dems candidate
Actualy I spoke in favour of Glen here pushing his Republicon candidates because re th Senate makeup th loss of moderate Republicons is not necessarily a good thing long term It moves Senate Republicon wise more ‘right’ and can strengthen dog blue Democrat Senators on other hand I feel Senate is now quite a mixed bag once you move away from absolute key legislation & even there as with Bailout diferent voting views within Dems Party so wonder where th general “majority” tipping point will be (probaley not allowing most tax cuts to expire in 2010 but perhaps delayed , big monies into R E enegry replacement , certailnly more financials regulation and some healthcare reform (but may be reel contentous in detail) and ……but social justise issues (except Bush torture ones etc) may be a problam as may military expenditure/prioritis , th deficit & “protectionism”
general “majority” tipping point unfortunately is then affected by ‘pork barrelling” , which is always a factor in reality in alot of individual Congress voting decsions
So it might be god’s will that Palin run for president? Hmm, that would confirm me as an atheist. Its a cunning line too; very hard to contradict god after all. Blessed are the spin doctors?
Regarding Lieberman, pesonally I hope they kick him out of the committee, and even caucus if he doesn’t behave. He shouldn’t be dealth with on principle. He campaigned with the republicans, hence he for all practical purposes he has changed sides. Caucusing with him just makes the democrats look weak, and probably gives him a chance to leak tactics and embarrass them any time he disagrees with something.
“Caucusing with him just makes the democrats look weak”
no I tink it makes th Democrats politcally savvy , believing his vote on a future key issue (given Senators do cross floor alot) could be crucial , and more important than “repaying” Lieberman for his flirting with Republicons
As i said in #594 i do not hav much faith in his loyalty and tink he should be given an unambigous warning that he gets a lesser post to buy that loyalty , and if he breaks it then penalty follows i just feel greater good of a Democrat POTUS with a chnse of some reel legislative change from a Democtat Congress is (reluctantly) worth th pregmetism …but with a principal guillotine known to him hanging over his head
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