Best of luck to Barack Obama as well. However, the truly momentous and inspirational aspect of yesterday’s result was my almost perfect prediction of it, as published in Crikey last Friday. Obama has carried the erstwhile red states of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Florida and Indiana, with two states coming down to the wire: Missouri, where McCain leads by 5868 votes (0.2 per cent), and North Carolina, where Obama leads by 14,053 (0.4 per cent). I tipped Obama to gain all of these states and no more. I gather late counting of declaration votes is unlikely to change any leads, so it appears those 0.2 per cent of voters in Missouri have stood between me and my moment of destiny. Better luck next time, I guess. To those who tipped McCain victories or record-breaking Obama blowouts and find themselves wondering what my secret is, one simple piece of advice: believe the polls (or Intrade if you prefer – it will usually tell much the same story). They may not be perfect, but they will outperform your own “informed conjecture” well over 50 per cent of the time, no matter how clever you think you are.
If the last two states play out as expected, the final result will be 364 electoral votes for Obama against 174 for McCain, pending one complication: Nebraska, which along with solidly Democratic Maine divides its college votes by congressional district. Two of the three districts have stayed Republican, but in a third Obama trails by just 569 votes, and thus stands a chance to make it 365-173. In any event, the joint winners of the informal Poll Bludger tipping contest (thanks to Juliem for conducting this) will be David Walsh and Ron, who I gather will win a tie-breaker ahead of fellow 364 Club members Grog and Peter Fuller.
Finally, our good friends at UMR Research have published qualitative polling on Australians’ attitudes to the President-elect. Those who harbour an unfashionable element of cynicism about the great man might want to keep a sick bag handy.
780 Comments
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plus am not sure whether other guys ar saying he’s better than 50/50 taking New England next time should he change to GOP , I wouldn’t thought so but done no reel data work
Your points on the senate voting for Lieberman may be right Ron, but I’m not so sure about the senate seat. Admittedly this link is from Daily Kos, which is pretty strongly pro-democrat, but still, it shows his polls have tanked since he supproted McCain.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/7/03724/55127/779/491459
Agree Socrates , thanks for that poll , even discounting Research 2000 leanings th drop in both Democrat & Independent suport for Lieberman is big from 2006 figures , so wouldn’t rate him 50/50 on that single poll (april in middle of Primary race) Unfortunately being elected in 2006 , his term has a way to go
Chris Matthews might run against Arlen Specter in the PA 2010 Senate Election. At present, prelimiary polling suggests Matthews at 27% to Specter’s 40% but it is early days and Matthews isn’t even an official candidate anyways. People don’t really know him and aren’t thinking of him in this way.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/12/specter-v-matthews-potent_n_143259.html
Connecticut did not vote Republican even having Lieberman running hard for them. He will be voted out of office whether he remains in the Dems caucus or leaves at the next opportunity. Here are some of his greatest hits from the campaign: http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=8DJ-zGC1-wE&eurl=
He has not apologised or pleaded his case to the Dems, but rather said he would bolt to the Republicans if he was stripped of the Homeland Security Chair. The old megalomaniac does not hold any cards, and should be given a slap. If you have a look at the clinical way that Obama has dealt with those that have crossed him over the past couple of years (notably Hillary), I reckon you can bet that old Joe won’t be getting off scot free.
He’ll get some sort of dressing down, and it will be left to him whether he wants to remain or leave. Also, if he begins blocking Obama, he will have even less chance of re-election than he already does.
And for Ron: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/washington/12health.html?_r=1&oref=slogin. Some of those long sought mandate seem implied here.
Dems pulling ahead in the Alaska Senate now 814 up. Every seat counts but I wold be cautiously optimistic that the moderate Republicans will be open to reason.
So much for the Palin-to-Washington scenario. If Begich does win, and if Franken also pulls ahead in MN as the late votes are counted and the “undercounts” are scrutinised (as seems likely), then the Dems can still get to 59 seats. They could get to 60 if they win the GA runoff, but this seems very unlikely because black turnout will fall without The One on the ballot. The 59 includes Lieberman. Obama has said he doesn’t want Lieberman expelled from the Dem Caucus, so he won’t be.
th Panche
good to see you , have you been away or imprisioned on Gilligans We shall now see th opportunitiy for your broad macro type changes to be become operational , because as i recall th micro policy area you didn’t se as important
Regarding healthcare link you gave As you ar aware from my long healthcare campaign querying Obama , his plan for adults mainly was around private insurance boltered in affordability by tax credits & subsidies which fits his econamic philosophy & which i criticised compared to Edwards universal healthcare plan (Obama’s exception was kids)
Th link you provided of Dems Senator Max Baucus, the chairman of the Finance Committee is more encouraging and is a challenge to Obama’s in that it goes much further which i welcome Suppose there will be alot of these ‘ambit’ claims made by Dems
I would like to highlight part of that NYT link which is positive:
“Max Baucus, the chairman of the Finance Committee, will unveil a detailed blueprint on Wednesday to guarantee health insurance for all Americans by facilitating sales of private insurance, expanding Medicaid and Medicare, and requiring most employers to provide or pay for health benefits.
But Mr. Baucus’s 35,000-word plan would go FURTHER than Mr. Obama’s in one respect, eventually requiring ALL people (Adults) — not just children — to have coverage.”
A massive difference including all Adults , which is th first desired leg i’m on Baucus’s side , his problam will be convincing enough Dems in Senate then Obama to change significantly some philosophy but hopeful he has a key chair role
Of course th 2nd desired leg (fixing & limiting th individual cost) is also still to achieved …..to get US weaned off having almost all healthcare via privatre insurance supported by tax credits & rebates Thats a US psche issue with free enterprise vs Govt involvement , but th H and Edwards alternative financing of healthcare method (fixing & limiting th individual cost) is a step to dismantle that way , guaranteing a fixed max % of income for healthcare insurance Wonder whether th ‘centre right’ of Democrat Party will think that as a step too far into socialism areas
So th panche , your link provides some encouragement I feel , although must say any Dems healthcare plan will be an improvment on currewnt 45 million underinsured & 30 million underinsured Assume you did not tink universal healthcare matter would die with electon , and presume as you ar delighted with th large marin of th win
with th large e/v margin of th win
Geoff
#606
do you hav a link for your 814 lead by Begich (D) over Stevens (R)
Sites i’ve got show count incl CNN show 3 vote lead , 125,019 to 125,016 , with approx 90,000 absentee ballots to count that may take a few days Hopeful signs for Dems is Stevens was leading by 3257 votes before absentee votes commenced to be counted suggesting a high Dems ratio so far in absentee votes
Seeing MN seems too close to call on recount , a Dems 60 in th Senate requires alot of luck in both MN and AK and reliance on Lieberman , but those blue dog southern Dems make alot pof those 60 benefits reely academic , and I also wonder how often th 60 need would hav arisen anyway
.
yes lieberman got in falsely with 70% Republicon votes , splitting dems vote 1/3 and getting over 1/2 of imndependents so he won’t get relected on polls , but he is there now , and reluctantly i’d re suggest from 2 nites ago that better him in caucus than a consevative Republicon to negotiate with …sometime th devils vote may be handy on a key Bill
omitted GA in th 60 , thats 3 lucky wins plus Lieberman to get to 60 , I’d lay long odds on that quadrella
It is in effect a supermajority anyway. US politics is loose enough that you won’t get every single Republican voting with the party line.
Gore doesn’t want back into government on any level ….
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/13/gore-rejects-climate-czar_n_143543.html
Ron – G’day. Just tied up with work.
I have always seen policy outcomes as important ends, I guess I just read the campaigning signs differently to you. And the ends still remain a way away, but it’s rare historically that the overt signals given in a campaign are the whole picture in the United States. As previously stated, I have found Obama’s ideological behaviour encouraging over a longer period, as evinced in his writings, work etc. I grant that he still may be a dud, but, as you say, an encouraging start.
Adam – I don’t think kicking Lieberman out has been raised by anyone outside of the netroots and Lieberman himself. It seems a false issue pushed by the bloke. No one is going to kick him out, but many are wondering why a fellow who was so anti-Obama (particularly for Security reasons) should be given subpoena power over him as Chair of a powerful committee. It has also been pointed out that while Waxman was investigating Bush constantly over the past 2 years as Liberman’s opposite in the House, Lieberman did not hold one hearing. Doesn’t seem like he’s too good at the job really…
Anyway, my point is that Joe will get some sort of punishment. He must, that’s politics. And he’ll give himself a better chance of holding his Chairmanship if he shows some contrition. But in the end, whether or not he caucuses with the Dems is his choice – they won’t kick him out – and will determine how much he fancies re-election.
For those for when one electoral vote map is not enough!
http://kottke.org/plus/2008-election-maps/
Map heaven.
Yesterday in Daily Kos I found this excellent piece on the issue of dissent from Barack Obama written in November 2005 which I think is related to this current Lieberman issue (and I’m taking into account that Joe’s no longer a Democrat, but only a member of their Caucus in last Congress). The piece has now been removed from DK and can’t provide a link, so just luckily I’d copied it to WORD and can provide this excerpt:
“How can we ask Republican senators to resist pressure from their right wing and vote against flawed appointees like John Bolton, if we engage in similar rhetoric against Democrats who dissent from our own party line? How can we expect Republican moderates who are concerned about the nation’s fiscal meltdown to ignore Grover Norquist’s threats if we make similar threats to those who buck our party orthodoxy?
To the degree that we brook no dissent within the Democratic Party, and demand fealty to the one, “true” progressive vision for the country, we risk the very thoughtfulness and openness to new ideas that are required to move this country forward. When we lash out at those who share our fundamental values because they have not met the criteria of every single item on our progressive “checklist,” then we are essentially preventing them from thinking in new ways about problems. We are tying them up in a straightjacket and forcing them into a conversation only with the converted.
Beyond that, by applying such tests, we are hamstringing our ability to build a majority. We won’t be able to transform the country with such a polarized electorate. Because the truth of the matter is this: Most of the issues this country faces are hard. They require tough choices, and they require sacrifice. The Bush Administration and the Republican Congress may have made the problems worse, but they won’t go away after President Bush is gone. Unless we are open to new ideas, and not just new packaging, we won’t change enough hearts and minds to initiate a serious energy or fiscal policy that calls for serious sacrifice. We won’t have the popular support to craft a foreign policy that meets the challenges of globalization or terrorism while avoiding isolationism and protecting civil liberties. We certainly won’t have a mandate to overhaul a health care policy that overcomes all the entrenched interests that are the legacy of a jerry-rigged health care system. And we won’t have the broad political support, or the effective strategies, required to lift large numbers of our fellow citizens out of numbing poverty.”
Hey Hey ……. Palin isn’t coming to Washington after all, will wonders never cease?
Ron, the link for Alaska is here.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/alaska.html
Good news, sense wins over stupidity after all.
Thank god for that
hot damn!
Well Alaska ALMOST elected a convicted felon
PHEW
This result:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/minnesota.html
has excited the Murdoch Press here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122644940271419147.html
Ahh, election fraud hurting the Republicans… you have to smile
while some are getting their heads around the election result, not all have
Quite an interesting exchange re prop 8 in california
The article is quite funny esp the reply
“Woo! It has been quite a roller coaster over the last week. Of course, the Best Church of God only found out today that the Presidential Election went for Senator Obama, because we have spent the last month in an airless, lightless, medialess, rapture-ready bunker in northern Idaho.”
http://scottfree.typepad.com/yourcivicdoody/
I have not suffered the last 12 months to put up with this!!!! I have bravely beaten my way through all of these attacks, smears, frights and beat-ups. To name a few;
Wright, Ayers, ACORN, Michigan recount, Florida recount, the SDs voting en masse for Hillary against the PDs, Mythematics, Bittergate, Muslim smears, socialist smears, Hillary winning the popular vote, the Bradley effect, Lipstick on a Pig, the 3am phone call and the surge.
God knows how much I have suffered and I DID NOT DO IT TO END UP WITH HILLARY AS SECRETARY OF STATE.
Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/13/hillary-clinton-secretary_n_143735.html
Dio, please for the love of God, NO ……………………………………
Secretary of Health and Human Services, not Secretary of State. We voted Obama in in the primaries because we didn’t want Hillary close to any power triggers ….. Secretary of State in the US is a much more powerful position than the Foriegn Minister is here in Australia.
Please make it not so ……. I’m with you, Dio, in case you can’t tell
juliem
It would be a Pyrrhic victory. If he couldn’t stomach her as VP, how could be even consider her as SOS? It’s not happening, except over my dead body.
Dio, he has to give it to Kerry ……… what in the world has Kerry EVER done to him to merit taking away the SOS position? I can think of heaps more that Hillary has done to screw him over.
Shheeeesssshhhh …… I mean, you vote for these guys and then always something happens …… I understand a politician doesn’t always do everything you like but I didn’t think one of Obama’s no-nos might loom so soon.
Now before others out there on the other side say I told you so, I will always vote Democrat/Labor. That doesn’t mean I won’t be unhappy with the odd decision here or there.
I am quite upset with K07’s short to medium term reluctance (now) to handle the republic issue, but that doesn’t mean I won’t vote for them the next time. Frankly, I think it would really put the cat amongst the pigeons if Malcolm would come out publically for this again and I would secretly be quite happy if he did
Dario,
I was thinking while I got breakfast ready. Biden who is now the VP has been in and around foreign affairs for 30+ years. It has been said he will be “in” on all major decisions (at least). Presumably, if this comes off, that means Biden will also have signed off on it. I trust Bidens judgement without question. If Biden gives HC his seal of approval in THIS position, I would reluctantly accept it emotionally. I would still want someone to explain to me though WHY she is better at SOS than Kerry.
Hopefully, we will not need to cross this bridge ……
What’s wrong with Bill Richardson?
One more official electoral vote making 365\162.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/11/14/politics/main4604957.shtml
Is this the result of a pre-election deal?
Might help explain why the Clintons became so committed to the cause late in the campaign.
Diogenes, Richardson is still in with a big chance.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/nov/14/obama-weighs-clinton-richardson-as-sec-of-state-1/
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/14/clinton-met-with-obama-ab_n_143810.html
Dio, see my #630. While I’m extremely disappointed, I can accept this now. Totally understand though if you can’t. Don’t know the roots for your unhappieness with this though, maybe it might help if you can itemize them?
My complaints with Hillary are multiple and extend back her time as FLOTUS. I know she is quite capable and intelligent. However, her overriding personality flaws of being too ambitious and her haughty attitude are more than enough to override the good points. Bottom line #1; her cons are more than her pros so the bottom line is don’t bet on this horse. I first began to dislike her when it “arose” during the Monica L. scandal that he was a serial philanderer and she had always taken him back. You don’t keep on putting yourself through that kind of behaviour from your spouse if you have any shred of self respect. Once, yes, probably you end up doing the decent thing and forgive the spouse and stay, but than when it happens subsequent times and you keep on staying …. any self respect you have left gets cut in half from whatever is remaining each time. Bottom line #2; her ambition is so powerful that she is willing to hang with him only for her own self interest in spite of how he treated her. They are both disfunctional and the relationship is disfunctional. We did NOT need that kind of ambition and/or personality problems in the White House whether the Oval Office or the private residence. That is the basis of my dislike of her candidacy for POTUS. New York can have her for all I care, Bill too for that matter.
Look on the bright side. If she ends up SOS, then that job is so time consuming that she can’t possibly both have it and run for President at the same time. Looking at Condoleeza Rice this time as an example, she wouldn’t have had the time to campaign for either the top spot or the veep spot on the Republican ticket. No one will challenge Obama in 2012 and if she doesn’t consider herself too old in 2016, she will have to give up the SOS job { admit, it does demand all of you attention
} in order to be able to do it. This job will keep her busy and out of a direct line of attack upon Obama 
This is a funny story about a Mayor who picked up his bat and ball and went home.
http://www.denverpost.com/watercooler/ci_10985498
Bloomberg, the mayor of NYC has decided the Californian and News South Wales tax hike solution is the path to take.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/nyregion/15bloomberg.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Get over it, you two. Joe Biden has obviously told O’Bambi that he needs the Woman of Steel, backed up by the World’s Greatest Ex-President, to help him deal with Putin, China, the Ayrabs, Ahmadinloony, Kim Jong-Loony and other threats to peace and good order.
Adam
Margaret Thatcher is going to be SOS, with George W riding shotgun
This just gets worse.
Anyone interested in a DVD of CNN’s election night coverage? It starts an hour before the first polls closed and finishes a bit after Obama’s speech.
Obama names the person to drive the Federal Communications Commission.
http://www.techpresident.com/blog/entry/33153/obama_puts_well_known_internet_advocate_in_charge_of_fcc_review
What the hell does “pro-internet” mean.
Here’s an interesting grilling about the GFC.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpyf-hS_WgY
Oz, I think it’d be along the lines of “not anti-internet”.
Diogenes
“God knows how much I have suffered and I DID NOT DO IT TO END UP WITH HILLARY AS SECRETARY OF STATE”
What , ar you concerned that foe next 4 years th Amigos may mention in passing how well Hillary is doing as SOS
This fine lady energises you evrytime her name appears , imagine tour SA Newspapers religously recoding her exploits for th next 4 years
Fact is Hillary was emminentley qualified to be POTUS , is clever , has wonderful ‘left’ policys in universal heaklthcare & suport of Kyoto ratification , has ticker and can negotiate , and would be an asset to th US as SOS She was by far th most viable candidate as VP in politcal circumstanses at THAT time , but suspect SOS is in relaity a mor powerful & independent position
You will be pleased to know Diogenes that according to multiple Obama sourses , th job is hers if she wants it She has not applied for it , its been offered , and as sensibly it should hav been Surprisingly I tink Hillarys decision will be based on 3 factors alone and none of them reagarding her ability to perform or ambition…firstly will be her perseption of th reality & efectiveness of th working chemistry between her and Obama …secondly will be Billy and his “World” job being a cross over/distracton …and thirdly of course valuable advice from her faithful fighting Amigos
Steve ,
Thanks for that link Latest again tonite seems Begich (D) is now 1022 ahead of Stevens (138,959 to 137, 937) in AK
GA is reverse , Chambliss (R) has a 9,748 lead making that a likely Red win
As was suggested th 90,000 absentee ballots may favour Beglich , and they ar approx 30% through them , with Beglich so far getting 53.9% to Stevens 46.1% making Beglich likely
Didn’t tink Dems could bet th quadrella of AK , GA , MN and Lieberman to get 60 …probably based on th above trends looks like Dems 57 , plus Lieberman VS Republicons 41 …with MN pot luck cliffhanger That is a great result realisticaly
th Panche
yes am delighted to see you back , tied up with work ? capitalist thou art
“guess I just read the campaigning signs differently to you.” Yes , both in micro policy and my centre right perseption of th candidate as to what I tink he was saying vs what a few may believe ‘change’ meant
“And the ends still remain a way away, but it’s rare historically that the overt signals given in a campaign are the whole picture in the United States.”
Yes absolutely Most Obama suporters couldn’t see th future island thoughts I was on through th lingos & there idea of current US politcs status I always believed any Democrat in Nov 2008 automaticaly became Non bush and wiped th slate for renewal I always believed any Democrat in 2009 would hav eurfphoria in Liberal Press that things were different well they will be ..no Bush and a different broad FA/domestic approach With Obama being black and deemed “new” & progresive that Media glow I expected in 2009 and into 2010 will be even greater Th start is promising and broad improvments & perseptions world wide will occur because its not a Republicon admin
My islands hav always been centred on later…later still when ‘admiration’ subsides and FA and domestic decisions hav been made or ar needed Palestinians Georgia , Ukraine Iran, afghanistan Iraq Pakistan , sickly porkbarrelling/lobbyists , under priviledged poor , unemployment , healthcare , Kyoto…and wonder whether th wrong comparison is made …of Obama to Bush …rather than Obama to Obama , I hope objectively th latter and with reel positive outcomes to come but on history am cautous
one can add exactly an extra 100,000 to Chambliss (R) lead in GA
Ron, I have noticed a protocol shift in the past few days.
Stevens (R) (convicted felon) AK
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