Comments on: New Zealand election minus one day

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 05:10:31 +0000

New thread (so yes, in answer to Swing Lowe's question).

By: jerms

jerms — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:55:08 +0000

So will TVNZ here: http://tvnz.co.nz/view/news_minisite_index_skin/news_election_08_group

No idea which will be better coverage…

By: ltep

ltep — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:46:59 +0000

Gotta love Singapore where you get told by the Government that if you vote for another party they will let your services go and let you live in a slum.

By: ltep

ltep — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:45:06 +0000

3 News has live streaming from 7 tonight.

http://www.3news.co.nz/VideoBrowseAll/3NewsLiveStream/tabid/387/Default.aspx

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:43:50 +0000

There’s different levels of disproportion-ness. There’s a formula for calculating it that I can’t remember right now but gives a PR system like NZ’s with a 5% threshold a rating of 1.1. Pretty damn close. I don’t even want to think what Australia’s would be.

You’re looking for the Gallagher index. I just mocked it up for the last Australian federal election – it’s 10.33 for the House of Reps, and 6.96 for the Senate (counting only the 40 senators elected in 2007). Not great compared to NZ (1.1 for the 2005 election, in the linked article), but then it’s a heap better than Singapore. Their electoral system is flat-out scary.

By: Scott Sims

Scott Sims — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:43:12 +0000

Is there a live TV stream and/or radio stream anywhere that will be available online?

By: Swing Lowe

Swing Lowe — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:37:01 +0000

Will William be doing live blogging of the NZ election?

By: ltep

ltep — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:33:24 +0000

“If the election is close, any overhang caused by the Maori Party is likely to be significant in determining the formation of government. It would be difficult for the Party to support Labor if the gap between the two major parties is too significant; however, they will be in a strong bargaining position to extract concessions from either party in their pursuits of a workable majority”

A very interesting prospect and I agree that it would be hard for the MP to support Labor if there is a wide gap in the primary (which you would have to suspect would be the case). I still suspect, however, that such support would result in a downturn in their vote at the next election.

By: jerms

jerms — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 04:05:16 +0000

Okay, nobody has really made any predictions as yet, so here goes:

http://www.csec.com.au/nz_pred.htm

If you couldn’t be bothered linking, I’m predicting a National minority government with ACT and United Future, with 63 seats in a 122 seat chamber comprised as follows: National 57, Labor 43, Greens 10, Maori 5, ACT 4, UFNZ 2, Progressive 1 and NZF 0 on major party primaries of 46/34.

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 01:53:58 +0000

For those among us who doubted the importance of UK Labour’s win in the latest by-election this article puts it all into perspective.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/poll-win-a-rare-fillip-for-brown-20081107-5k7r.html
(Sorry William, not sure which thread this should go on seeing that this topic has been discussed here.)