The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.
Other news:
• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.
• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.
• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.
• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.
638 Comments
A repost from the old thread:
When you need to be compared to Nelson to look good, you know things aren’t going well.
No mention of satisfaction rating yet.
poor Malcolm, after all of his hard work bagging Rudd his pref PP has gone down, Rudd62—Turnbull22
So as Turnbull’s PPM rating sneaks towards the teens, and the 2PP stuck around where it was when Nelson moved on, is ANYONE in the media going to admit that the Turnbull exercise has not been the outstanding success that they billed it as??
So much for “Phonegate”
So Rudd continues his polling streak.
Exactly who thinks Rudd is a one-term wonder? Anyone that we take seriously?
I’m going to go way out on a limb and say, no.
So this time they aren’t using the good ol’ “Approval rating” tactic to make Turnbull look good.
Malcom Turnbull’s first PPM was 24. A “bounce” from Nelson’s 16. Now he’s back to 22. I wonder if it’ll crash through 20.
This is a well deserved result for Rudd. Malcom’s scare campaign has come back to bite him.
Grog, I’m beginning to think most voters would just wish Malcolm would just slope off somewhere – anywhere.
I’m sure Turnbull will take the Libs to the next election and lose it by more than Howard unless they change leaders. The electorate has made it’s mind up about Turnbull and they don’t like what they see. When is Cossie going to get the tap on the shoulder?
The polls seem to support your view.
Regarding the car industry package, I am conditionally pleased, depending on the conditions attached. There is no reason we can’t have a competitive industry here – our market is large enough (one million cars a year) to support production of advanced models. We used to make over 250,000 cars a year, which is larger than Toyota’s world wide production of Prius, (from several different plants). The key is to force the foreign owned manufacturers to invest. The Howard government package failed dismally in this regard – $6 billion wasted on nothing more than regigging assembly lines for the next models of Magna, Falcon and Commodore.
7. Oz, I think they compared MT’s satisfaction rating to Nelsons and called that a bounce. Will be intersting to see what his rating still is. Do LNP supporters stil think he’s doing a great job now that the comparison with Nelson is wearing off?
There is another way to spin this- I think Ive finally cracked the Da Milncy Code
that over 62% of voters think turnbull is doing a grand job and should stay exactly where he is
A lowly and minor proportion, a mere 22% want him to move on.
Talcums our man!
While many in the media are showing clouded judgement due to a ‘man crush’ on Turnbull, the wider electorate are not so easily seduced.
And to inovate.
Tanner on LL – as good as ever.
I’m actually not suggesting that Turnbull is finished, it just irks me the way the media treated his early poll numbers as the second-coming. Nelson was being beaten up over PPM in the teens, and Turnbull is heading that way.
yeah, the “Approval/Satisfaction” rating seems to have gone MIA … maybe Turnbull’s Approval/Satisfaction rating nose dived
This must be longest honeymoon (begun December 2006, still going strong) in the history of matrimony.
Gusface, some nice Colbert type logic there.
Just ONE article on Turnbull’s failure….PLEASE
Poor wife must be sore as.
I know that State issues don’t normally influence Federal Eleections, but wouldn’t the postpondment of the Northern Line would harm the Liberal vote ?
I’ve gotta go to bed now. Got a really new State gov’t funded initiative to get going in the am. We’ll actually make some difference to people’s lives. Whoo hoo, real money that makes real difference. Night PBers and William
The way things are going the MSM/Libs will have to start hoping for the 7 year itch
Last 3 Newspolls; PPM 54/26 (29% lead), 59/25 (34% lead), 62/22 (40%) lead
Come on MSM, I’m writing it for you!!!!
grog
I feel the fibs pain, and thought some gentle words of encouragement would help.
One must do what one can in these very testing times.
I think the honeymoon is over, but not Rudd’s.
Lol@ Kitty Flanagan “I see you’ve all come dressed as Julie Bishop” on the photo of Rudd with the Trick or Treaters
Apparently we missed a Tasmanian poll:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/10/2415739.htm
Not much detail.
Bartlett PPM on 37, Libs 29 and Greens 15.
So about 45% of those polled would put the coalition above Labor on two-party terms, yet only 22% of those polled support Turnbull?
He’s not even able to carry his own base along with him, let alone the middle ground.
Where’s GP and his comments when you need him? You know, the comments that on the outside look defiant and righteous but on the inside look scared and worried that the Libs are in the electoral wilderness for the next decade?
With the polls showing that Turnbull is on the nose, and there being no-one in the Federal Parliament on the Liberal side who remotely looks like leadership material, isn’t it time that some of the Federal Lib members in the “safer’” seats fell on their swords to make way for new blood?
I’m thinking of proven dudds like Turnbull, Hockey, Bishop and Nelson , not to mention Abbot and Costello
Imagine the reinvigoration of the Party if they replaced those underachievers with dynamic, successful Liberals from the States, those with recent track records, past and present tyros from my own State for example, Like Buswell, Keirath, Rob Johnston, Omodei and Barnett.
Those holding state seats could vacate them without fear of any being gained by Labor in byelections, and they would impart a previously only dreamed about wealth of talent into the Federal Party.
Those of you insiders, like Glen, GP et al, use your influence for the good of the Party before all is lost.
Ok so I found EMRS’ last poll:
http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/State%20Voting%20Intentions%20August%202008%20Report.pdf
Libs on 30. So a 4-point drop on that is 26. Dunno what Labor’s is.
26 Lib vs. 18 Greens. A bit unnerving.
Or Deidre Wilmott
Fulvio, Fulvio, Fulvio
Buswell? What role exactly do you see him playing? Minister for Womens Rights perhaps?
I don’t feel in the least bit unnerved.
Treasurer. He’s doing a bang-up job in WA.
Elf – Buswell would be well suited as Minister for Trade.
Oz, he is not doing a bad job but he has only been doing it for a few weeks. A bit early to judge maybe?
Yes, thankyou to you all. My comment 35 was a little tongue in cheek for anyone that knows the controversy surroung Troy before the election.
surroung = surrounding
So was mine.
What’s that about Buswell and a sarong, Elf?
I was actually being sarcastic. I think bob was as well. Buswell’s controversy is a regular source of mirth on PB.
Of course, there’s absolutely nothing funny about sexual harassment.
Australia would be better off having Labor and The Greens as the two major parties. We don’t need any party more conservative than Labor.
Fulvio
It is well known quokka’s wear sarongs
Ta Bob, its that time of the month.
Thanks OZ. I suppose sarcasm is really hard to see without facial or vocal expression to go with it eh? From now on I will just automatically assume everything you say is sarcasm until you tell me otherwise. Does that sound reasonable?
One thing in the Tasmanian state poll pdf is that Nick McKim`s preferred premier rating is higher that of Peg Put.
What has the former Greens leader got to do with it Tom?
Or is it the best thing you can raise in this thread? I know 55-45 and 62-22 must be pretty devastating to you…
55-45 and down by 40 on the PPM??? Come on Malcolm… all that hot air for the last few weeks about the dastardly government and that’s all you’ve got to show for it? Where’s the member for Bradfield?
I was just making a comment of an observation I made about some information in one of the links on this thread.
the libs still hav’nt learnt that every time they sink the boots into Rudd his popularity just goes up while theirs comes down by the same amount, by the way the Advertiser didnt print that letter i wrote about Turnbull bagging Therese Rein, surprise, surprise.
You’ll probably be right more often than not that way.
Sorry, the quote should be “Does that sound reasonable?” at 48.
The Libs need to learn that you can bag an unpopular PM and get away with it but bag a popular one and people don’t like it.
hahahooooo!! Another damning public verdict on Talcum’s reality-challenged yabbering.
He seems to think if you just say “Swan out of depth/ Rudd a phoney” enough times in public it might become true. He’s really messed this up, I think. He just seems a nagging, contradictory, self-important nay-sayer while the government acts.
Hey Talcum: you know those interest rate cuts, and how you claimed credit for the banks passing em on? Well, thing is, they *wouldnt have* without the bank guarantee you’ve been bagging from sunup till dusk.
Its really v simple, let me explain: banks can get loans from other banks now they have the guarantee. The cost of getting that money has gone down with the risk – thanks to the government’s guarantee. This in turn made it easier to pass the cuts on.
Perhaps Julie Bishop could explain it to you, in her chapter length essay by someone else.
Back to the drawing board, Libs!
Love this human interest story on talcum
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24628155-5007146,00.html
“Kevin Rudd is no prude or stick-in-the-mud. But he doesn’t have Turnbull’s facility with people he doesn’t know.
A feeling of insecurity emanates from Rudd when he has to manufacture small talk with strangers, a display of discomfort.
Turnbull has greater social abilities and has learned not to be as instantly dismissive of fools as he once was, even if that means slight pauses before replying to impertinent questions.”
Turnbull is obviously a very facile person….
That article is sickening.
Rudd’s persona is half of what got him the job! What a pile of nonsense! Turnbull is the toff, Rudd is the everyman.
Just another News Ltd pile of pro-Lib dribble.
I know I should ignore the cretins, but … Current headline in the Australian “Rudd Capitalises on Crisis: Newspoll.”
since the headline is ““Rudd Capitalises on Crisis”
with Turnbull’s drop in PPM maybe the healine should be:
“Turnbull bungles response to Crisis”
omg that article by Farr is pathetic.
“On weekends we go for long walks. We see hundreds of people every week.’’
…
“Turnbull has the energy to do it and comes with an active sense of humour and sense of fun, and considerable charm. You can’t have been a journalist and a lawyer without at some point enjoying the company of all styles and incomes. ”
Sounds like a personal ad for one of those online dating agencies
Malcolm enjoys long walks on the beach, looking at his own website, and listening to tapes of his own speeches. He seeks men and women of voting age who are interested in a relationship beginning at the next election. Advertisement extended due to lack of interest.
Gusface@58
And that is journalism? Looks like someone writing a reference.
They cannot get any more blatant in their intentions than that piece. An out and out attempt to promote Turnbull.
Gee but isn’t it Kev who quietly visits homeless shelters in the evenings. Gee wonder how Kev is able to talk all those down an out people if that Farr nonsense had any credibility. Farr doesn’t mention one important truth. Turnbull doesn’t and has never cared about anyone else but himself. Rudd obviously does care about the needy. So Farr’s piece would seem an total invention, not related to truth.
Another demonstration of a sick murdoch newspaper.
NSW Labor Party bosses have been secretly canvassing backbenchers to gauge waning support for Nathan Rees in the party room, just two months after he was installed as Premier.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24632912-5001021,00.html
It is apparent that News Ltd would support the Bali Bombers against Rudd if they thought it could get Turnbull some votes. There is no line they wont cross in trying to resurrect neoconservative politics.
How on earth could they produce that maudlin Turnbull swill which is more likley to be opposite of the truth. It is almost like Farr was giving Turnbull a back rub as he dictated that piece.
You have to ask does Murdoch ever get ashamed of himself for promoting or supporting this type of stuff?
Hehehe
Only four more years boys and girls, then the real government is back.
SNIP: A smiley face doth not an abusive comment unabusive make – The Management.
Sorry William, couldn’t resist.
Depends sensitively on how… um… whoever it is who’s now the member for Cowan does. Compare the performance of John Quigley vs. every other state Labor MP in the northern suburbs at the last election. With 11/15 seats to Liberal and possibly residual annoyance at a couple of years of Barnett government, the only way is down. Then again, the personal vote seems to mean more that I’d thought it would up there in sandpit lot plasma TV fooly sik HSV country. If new boy does well, he’ll probably get back in. If him and Michael Keenan decide being a party hack is their true calling, though, both Cowan and Stirling oughta swing back to Labor. Swan, too.
I’m very sure nobody else here remembers this, but at the 2004 election, Grok (Curtin uni mag) endorsed Sid Sidebottom in Tasmania on account of his funny name, and Dick Adams for his facial hair. Then Chaser did some thing trying to boost Alan Cadby for PM. Somebody oughta do the same for Mal Washer, the great invisible MP. For someone who’s been in parliament 10 years, he doesn’t get his face around much… time that changed. I nominate Mal for Poll Bludger endorsed candidate.
As I expected, nothing has happened which would change the Government’s popularity. By this time under Nelson the leadership speculation stories had already begun.
Elf @ 69:
“Hehehe
Only four more years boys and girls, then the real government is back.”
What’s happening in four years? The next election is in 2010, roughly 2 years time. Unless you’re writing the Libs off for that and assuming an early election in the next term?
Also, again I can only express my happiness that Guy Barnett has been bumped to the loseable spot on the Tasmanian Liberal ticket. Hopefully that will mean one less religious loony in the parliament.
Promote? Perhaps they’re trying to save what’s left of him.
Dennis today, well um, he seems to be, um… simply reporting the latest Newspoll as it is, without spin?
What’s the hell’s going on?… shame on him… I always enjoy all the righteous indignation comments that usually accompany a Dennis report.
Kevin Rudd increases poll lead over Malcolm Turnbull
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24633228-601,00.html
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll11nov.pdf
ALP 44% unchanged
Lib 35% down 1
Nat 3% unchanged
Greens 9% unchanged
Other 9% up 1
ALP 2PP 55% up 1
Rudd 62% up 3
Turnbull 22% down 3
Re 76
Shanahan can’t even summon a whimper – MSM and opp. threw everything AND kitchen sink at Kevin (such bitter and personal comments last week) and voter land didn’t budge. I predict Malcolm gone by Feb next year – the Libs won’t put up with these numbers. Whose left to lead tho? Joe Hockey is a possibility but his weight is an issue like it was for Kim Beazley- unfortunately makes him look lazy.
And Rudd dissatisfaction down 5 to 21%, after peaking at 37%. Fascinating.
Faint praise from Newspollster on Newsradio this morning comparing Malcolm’s AP to Nelson’s last – not hard to look good compared to a corpse.
Hmmm, it seems the Opposition Organ attacks Rudd, the stronger he becomes.
In their own polling. Which only they own. And understand. etc.
Question:
Is OO endorsement the kiss of death in these post-Howard times?
Are they too tied to a failed deregulationist agenda to have any popular cred?
And finally: Why am I even asking these questions when no-one reads the OZ except a circle-jerk of “insiders”?
You know, the gap between Nelson and Turnbull isn’t all that big.
Especially considering the gap between Rudd and Turnbull is 6x that of Turnbull and Nelson.
Maybe it was a ghost writer today…
Okay, so perhaps a better PPM rating for Turnbull would be one that is relative to Nelson’s last (16% on Sep 5). Here goes …
Sep 22: (Actual) 24% (Relative*) 33%
Oct 14: (Actual) 26% (Relative) 38%
Oct 28: (Actual) 25% (Relative) 36%
Nov 11: (Actual) 24% (Relative) 27%
Much better!
* Calculated as follows: 100*(24-16)/24
Really the point made by ‘Lefty e’ is the crucial one. Whilst its incredible annoying to us who are mildly obsessed with politics, all this rethoric by the right wing press just does not make any short term impact. If we look at the swings around the fed and state elections over the last 25 years, we can see some fairly strong trends and patterns. The dribble that comes from some of these writers and owners should be considered more like a writer for a football teams mag. Its just baracking, they also have a hugely inflated sense of their influence. Does anyone really believe that these bafoons have any real influence on elections. Has anyone ever said. “Oh I remember in 1975 when that great story on page 2 of the Age brought the government crashing down”. Please start looking for bigger trends and movements. These fools need others to think that they are important or their jobs are on the line. Ignore and they shall perish. If a journo makes a sound and no-one listens, did it really happen?
The next phase of limited news reporting will soon switch to “poor Malcolm” mode and how opposition leader is SO difficult a job and how he really needs to be given a chance as this is the australian way (ie aust newspaper way when coalition politicians are concerned).
The thing that true baffles me is how the australian newspaper can be regarded as THE newspaper of record in our country. If that is true we are in big trouble.
The daily garbage we hear from fran kelly on radio national is out of control – she might as well be on the liberal payroll.
It is about time labor started to put the boot into some of the media reptiles rather then just cope the kicks in the guts. What in the world was mitchell invited to kirribilli in the first place for ?
The mad monks prediction about Rudds polling numbers falling to pieces soon lasted a long time didn’t it
Poor old people skills – just another old duffer – out of power and in a shadow portfolio he doesn’t want, with a leader he will knife with glee when the first opportunity arises.
Labor have to ratchet up demands for opposition policy after all only 6 – 8 months and we are back in election mode.
At least Turnbull at 22% has an excuse of being in opposition.
Poor old G.W.Bush on the other hand is the “so called” leader of the free world. He has just set another record.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24634196-5001028,00.html
scorpio – imagine how this is going down with the american public
“The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.”
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
“It is about time labor started to put the boot into some of the media reptiles rather then just cope the kicks in the guts.”
Disagree. It’s the fact Rudd doesn’t play the silly partisan opposition and media games that attracts swing voters.
The battle for Corangamite has begun. Simon Price, a Liberal machine man and former VFF official, has moved back into the local area from Melbourne, and has put together a big ticket for Colac Otway Council. I suspect he wants a council seat to lay the basis for a Corangamite campaign.
If anyone wanted a republic debate, Senator Brown has kicked it off:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/11/2416016.htm
Personally, I think we should have a plebiscite at the next election and the question should be “Republic, yes or no?” and then another to pick what model. When the election in 2010 comes around there will have been 11 years between referenda on the issue. That’s long enough of a time. If Rudd’s clever he’ll see it as an opportunity to wedge Turnbull and the Liberal Party, because it will become an election issue. Turnbull will have to ago against senior members of his party or show himself to the public to be a complete sellout.
But Rudd said the republic wasn’t a priority in his first term of government. It would be a bit of a backflip and give the impression he isn’t fully concentrated on the economic situation.
bob
there appears to be a cordinated attack on rudd, his wife and labor by the limited news media and some others. Note the very personal attacks in the msm in the last few days from a range of sources and compare it to the fluff pieces written by the likes of farr on turnbull, “taking long walks with his wife” blah blah…
rudd cannot lay there and cope the boots to the head indefinitely. If he does he will receive knockout blows sooner than later. There is a lot rudd can do in retaliation against the financial interests of murdoch et al and this should have happened before now.
how do you think rodent had such a bunch of puppy dogs in the media constantly wagging their collective tails on most of the stuff he did ? Costello famously (?) threatened saul estlake and ANZ and the media still fawn on the very mention of him.
go figure….
I know what i would be doing – it would be aimed at all of their pockets and would continue well after the got the message.
Touche.
Having a question put at the next election prepares it for NEXT term.
I agree totally. It’s why Turnbull’s whinging about the G20 rubbish and other things have seemed so pathetic. Rudd is getting on with the job while the Libs look as though they are playing politics. It’s a very stark contrast.
Agree again. The Republic has to wait. Bringing it up now would just open the government up to attacks of “surely the economy is more important?”
On the other hand, like Brown says, the nation doesn’t stop because the economy is in a slump.
Of course that’s true, but right now the electorate doesn’t give a toss. They are more worried about the economy and aren’t even considering the Opposition, having only just recently changed governments. They couldn’t care even if Malcolm saved furry animals from bushfires… it just isn’t on the radar.
Brown might well say that, but in my opinion he’s wrong. “It’s the economy stupid”.
Dario.
We are all entitled to our own views.
I disagree completely with you and bob on this one.
Fair enough dave, it would be a boring world if everyone thought the same
Surely then that means the Opposition would use that “Focus on the economy” line if Rudd did anything besides talk about economics for the next two years?
What a boring two years.
Well most things can be traced back to the economy though, so that line wouldn’t work. Climate change, education, broadband etc can all be linked to improving the economy in the long run. I challenge you to come up with a genuine economic link to moving to a Republic.
There will be no movement on the republic while HM is alive – I think Rudd has actually said that, but even if he hasn’t that is obviously the case.
I don’t think there is one. My point is that it’s going to be very disappointing if all the Government does is talk about things in terms of economics and their effect on growth and the budget.
It’s pathetic that the only reason the environment and education are supposedly on the agenda is because of the economy.
“My point is that it’s going to be very disappointing if all the Government does is talk about things in terms of economics and their effect on growth and the budget.”
Just give it time. When we move out of this economic climate, the Rudd government will be able to move on to other things in their next term, having been the messiahs of the Australian economy for keeping growth in the positive.
Ken Henrys address to the Nat Press Club tomorrow should interesting. More so give robbs latest attack on treasury :-
“THE Coalition today renewed its attack on the credibility of Treasury boss Ken Henry, accusing his department of cooking the books on their economic growth forecast to save Kevin Rudd from embarrassment.
Infrastructure spokesman Andrew Robb today accused the Government of “manipulation” after a split emerged between the Reserve Bank and the Treasury over whether economic growth will fall below 2 per cent. ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24634397-601,00.html
These are very serious charges to make. Let wait with bated breath to see how the our media “Of Record” approach this. Maybe some more postdated emails ??
Julie Bishop has been saying similar stuff:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/11/2416165.htm?section=justin
If every economist is predicting a rate cut, if not plenty more, wouldn’t it be silly not to factor that in to the predictions? Obviously it would be a bit weird if the RBA did it.
Unfortunately I don’t think they will have much choice if the economy gets worse. How else do you ‘justify’ a considerably minimsed surplus or even a deficit without explaining the economic benefits of what all the money is being spent on?
They were on the agenda before the GFC, and the environment certainly wasn’t on it for the economic impact alone, but it was a part of it
But most other issues have economic components. Like paid maternity leave and carbon trading. They are ultimately economic questions as well as social an environmental ones.
Exactly, that was my point. The Republic however has no economic component (other than how much it will cost us financially to organise), so in an economic crisis it is a no go.
Oz – lets hope julie bishop keeps banging her jaws together with her nonsense.
She is only another blunder or two away from being damaged goods. Another serious bout of plagiarism and she might as well be taken to the wood shed.
Someone might gently (or otherwise) remind the fibs that less than 12 months ago Ken Henry and treasury were key elements of the success of the rodent government. If Henry’s integrity was subject to such severe doubt why didn’t they deal with it then ?
I think she’s there already
He’s chucked a Palin and gone rogue.
Goodness me, all that heat and noise (if no light) and nothing to show for it. You’d like to think that the Libs might now realise that being an effective Opposition means more than bagging everything the government does, but in my experience conservatives aren’t usually that reflective.
The main problem the Libs have is that they are suffering serious bout of relevance deprivation syndrome (to be fair Labor suffered this too in the late 90s), but they will need to wait until the electoral cycle turns their way again. It surely will – the WA Liberals are good example of a not especially competent party getting into government because the time was right – but there’s a long way to go yet for their Federal counterparts.
The Federal electoral cycle is just beginning, and given that the Rudd government has been various shades of competent (not to mention popular) over their first year, you would imagine that they will get three terms before the Libs can put up a decent challenge – this will make it 2016 before we have a contest (assuming no early elections). Oh what a dark, dark time to be a Liberal….
Hugo well before then we’ll have just about control of every State Parliament…so i wouldnt go bleating how good it is to be a Labour man.
Most governments in western countries run on about a 10 year life span if they are competent i would argue Labour arent competent (re Swan fumbling with his notes for 3mins before answering a simple question) so they will at most have 2 terms.
So we’ve moved on from a one-termer to a two-termer?
No Glen, incompetent was Howard’s first term or Whitlam’s second – a ‘gotcha’ moment like Swan had last week does not add up to incompetence . The Rudd government is too cautious to make too many mistakes (though that lack of boldness may be a problem for them down the track).
You are correct to say that most western governments get a run of about a decade, which is where my 2016 came from.
However you might be making a leap to say that the Libs will “just about control every State parliament by then”. Looking across the Federation, I can see opportunities for the Libs to win in NSW next time (though I wouldn’t bet too much on that), but I’d expect Labor to be re-elected in Queensland, Victoria, SA & Tasmania. Still 2016 is a long way away, so I guess you can hope that you might hold more than 2 states by then….
“Hugo well before then we’ll have just about control of every State Parliament…”
I’ll let you delude yourself in to thinking that.
Just like how the polls were wrong in 2007 eh?
When are you getting your wool re-dyed?
OMG, not another “Treasurer must be a master technician” spruiker again!
Glen, Swan lost his notes. The journos had nothing else to go on so they decided this was a big thing and wrote it up as such.
It’s similar to saying his office bought the wrong paper-clips once and that this must surely reflect on his judgement about more important matters.
There’s no logical connection between Swan losing his notes and the competence of the government. “Spot-a-gaffe” is a game invented by journalists, and desperate delusionists, to keep themselves occupied while the polls continue to soar ever higher.
Today’s in not just one poll… it’s the 50th or so in a run of Newspolls going back to this time in 2006. It ain’t a fluke baby.
Did anyone see ABC2 Breakfast this a.m. Kim Carr was interviewed by La Trioli. I’m not one who usually wants to kiss Kim Carr but I did this morning.
Triolio spouted stuff that Laura Tingle had written in the AFR about the car plan being illthought out, useless, etc. etc. Triolio was speaking in her usual ‘I know everything and what I say is right’ attitude with face to match. Whatever Tingle had written was supposedly spot on and Triolio wanted to know what Carr had to say to that (as in ‘take that you stupid Labor dolt!).
Carr very quietly said wtte – “Canberra Press Gallery journalists don’t live in the real world – they don’t know how people are hurting, losing jobs, etc. etc. Press Gallery journalists are too incestuous – don’t get out and mix enough”
BIG BIG KISSES FOR KIM CARR from this household.
“Today’s in not just one poll… it’s the 50th or so in a run of Newspolls going back to this time in 2006. It ain’t a fluke baby.”
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/the-long-view/
Check it out
The important thing for the fibs is WHO becomes leader when allbull’s poll numbers become just too much blow torch on the belly for the coalition to tolerate ?
Are the blue blood combo of allbull and mesmerelda EVER going to be embraced by voters ?
allbull hasn’t got much time after about mid Autumn 2009 to really demonstrate electoral support. The fibs don’t tolerate polling failure and they will need traffic lights and traffic cops to organise the people with sharp knives in hand wanting to stab allbull in the back.
So who then….Mesmerelda or tip or hockey or shudder “people skills” ?
How can they eek out policy within the next 8 – 9 months when their position on major issues change so frequently. Deep in their dark hearts they STILL want serf choices and deny climate change. Who will ever believe they would rule moderately ?
HAH, Randall’s at it again:
‘”He’s an activist,” he told The Australian Online.’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24635223-601,00.html
That’s a free kick to the Government today in QT.
Because something isn’t a priority doesn’t mean it won’t get done
…. note he didn’t say “I won’t do this”
They just don’t learn
Not by those voters who matter: swinging voters.
Unless there’s enough of them who will vote to undermine fairness in the workplace for their own kids. Somehow I’m pretty sure most people will not knowingly vote for an industrial-strength dose of SerfChoices.
Labor’s just got to inform the voters of the Liberals’ IR agenda (because, going by their record on this in the past, it’s to to be expected they will be forthcoming themselves).
dave @ 113,
Did you see her on Good News Week after AI last night? While that doesn’t count as a blunder, I’m not sure she impressed one and all with any positive qualities
….
Did Conroy have anything to do with Feilding getting the preference deal that got him elected?
Dont you ever wonder why no centre-right supporters write on this blog??
You dont allow people to have their own opinions and if they share them they are then chastised….this blog is not a true representation of Australia as a whole.
You’re right Glen, it isn’t.
But the polls are, and your side of the fence is strugling to get any traction federally.
The former premier of South Australia, Rob Kerin, has announced he is retiring – effective immediately, forcing a by-election in the South Australia state seat of Frome, currently held by a margin of 3.4%. In the current circumstances in SA, even taking into account Kerin’s personal poularity, I would expect this to be held by the Liberals. Could be an interesting one though …
From Conroy’s point of view (And then presumably from a pair proportion of the Vic Labor Party) Fielding is preferable to The Greens.
Idiot Libs in QT still talking about bank deposits and trying to pin NSW Labor’s woes on Rudd.
Glen @ 117
It was 80 seconds, not 180 as you claim … If Swan were fumbling to respond to a brainless gotcha question from a hair-flipping, gum-chewing, 19 year old “journalist” from Austereo (or wherever), your conclusion with regard to Swan’s competence would be completely justified. As it is, you miscalculated by 100 seconds; Swan’s answer, falling within the Peter-Meakin-approved 90 second gotcha limit, revealed no evidence of incompetence.
Incidentally, who is the Queensland’s Young Liberal Policy Vice President? (No Googling … Your time starts NOW …)
“Dont you ever wonder why no centre-right supporters write on this blog??”
Just look in limited news publications. They have a monopoly on the fibs views.
Pity they are well out of step with the voters as well.
You have yours don’t you? Why do we have to agree with you?
Oz @ 135, it is a wild day, isn’t it? The speaker is working OT and it isn’t even 2:30 yet
Good odds “people skills” gets chucked out of the house today ?
100x more fun than yesterday’s.
Haha Tanner is taking on Bishop’s GNW performance.
Lindsay Tanner on the podium at the moment mocking Julie Bishop for being on Good News Week last night
Mesmerelda not happy.
GOOD
Well done LT
Uhoh, back to Phonegate.
Incidentally, today the report of the Senate “inquiry” into academic freedom is released.
Last night (for those who didn’t watch) they had Julie B. give a “caption” for a picture where Joe Hockey was waving his hands while at the speakers podium and she behind him in her seat in the shot had a sour look on her face. Probably not much different from this afternoon
Thanks Sykesie, I’ve put up a post on it.
methinks mesma is a bigger liability for the tories than truffles, the cut and paste fiascos and the sense/whiff/vibe she’s still very pro serf choices make her an unlikley target of swinging affection
“Incidentally, today the report of the Senate “inquiry” into academic freedom is released.”
No it isn’t. Try 27 November.
Is the SerfChoices Party taking Howie’s advice to “rage against Opposition” again? Tut tut, poor dears.
Either you or ABC are wrong.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
News Diary, on the left.
On the right even.
HAHAHA.
Turnbull just demanded that Rudd call him “The Leader of the Opposition” and not “the Member for Wentworth”.
On the last question Turnbull seems to have missed Rudd’s argument over the leaked memo. Rudd says that the report regarding Bush’s lack of understanding of the G20 is not accurate, the implication being that therefore it can’t be a leak of the actual conversation, therefore no investigation is necessary.
Oz, the ABC are wrong. Today was the original reporting date. It’s since been extended.
Triton, investigation of the leaking of the details of a private conversation can be investigated, regardless of whether individual parts of the leaked material are incorrect.
Sorry, leaked phone call.
Rudd’s answers on this really are pathetic. I agree that world leaders won’t trust him on the phone if he doesn’t clear this up.
“Rudd’s answers on this really are pathetic. I agree that world leaders won’t trust him on the phone if he doesn’t clear this up.”
Nonsense. Utter nonsense. The world does not hang on the rantings of fib has beens.
ltep, I understand that. Rudd has picked the one (supposedly) incorrect part to avoid the question. My point was that Turnbull’s point of order on relevance suggested to me that he didn’t realize that Rudd _was_ relevant. Turnbull thought he hadn’t answered it all (mostly he hasn’t, but he did that time).
“I agree that world leaders won’t trust him on the phone if he doesn’t clear this up.”
Certainly not if Peter Mitchell is shnuffling around in the background!
“Kevin? Barack. First things first: Is anyone from The Australian in the building?”
dave, so you think that leaders of other countries don’t believe that any leak has occurred, or if they do they won’t worry that it’ll happen to them?
Garbage
Why?
They have much more to worry about atm than a former government on the other side of the globe stirring the pot.
If you believe otherwise no problem, it just shows how far out of touch the fibs and their fellow travellers are.
I am not going to change your view and you are not going to change mine.
Labor are in government and the fibs are irrelevant. Fibs can stamp their feet and roll on the ground but they remain irrelevant.
Dario @ 161 “Garbage”…Really. Don’t have a link for that, do you?
dave, you are no more relevant than Rudd’s answers. It’s got nothing to with the “fibs” or what leaders have to worry about. If a leak has occurred and it isn’t known where it came from, then why won’t it happen again? It could be an official. If you were a world leader on the phone to Rudd, how on earth could be sure the conversation won’t leak?
Thats your view.
I disagree.
Get over it.
wow, rudd is avoiding responding to a censure against him.
Howard said Obama was the terrorist favourite but you think a supposed ‘leak’ already refuted by GWB is likely to be damaging? Honestly…
Read all my previous posts on the subject. I can’t believe this still has legs when the credibility of the original story has been blown apart long ago.
Isn’t that the usual tactic?
My understanding is that it wasn’t a censure, but a suspension of standing orders.
Might I add that if this was so ‘damaging’, then why was Rudd one of the 9 leaders called by Obama after his win? Berlusconi got snubbed after he made a nasty remark about him…
171: That’s just a technicality. Debate on the substance of the censure motion usually always ends up happening during debate on the suspension motion.
I find it curious that they are banging on about a non-leaked or partially leaked phone call of no consequence. The best they can do now is to try and run a ‘trust’ issue.
Now if the details of a supposed leak are not correct and in fact an invention what then is the real issue for world leaders? The question on the mind of world leaders will be if to trust Australia’s media to be honest and not invent phone conversations that didn’t happen, in which case they can never ring Australia.
It is of course a joke. World leaders are all very familiar with the media, especially a dishonest Murdoch media, and that they will invent anything regardless of the truth; they continue to all communicate notwithstanding the media.
But the problem for Sinister Malcolm is that the polls show he has very low trust levels and Rudd high levels so he loses the ‘who do you trust’ battle right there.
This is all about an extremely jealous Turnbull, Liberal Party and some Murdoch media journalists who cannot accept that Rudd talks to world leaders all the time and especially now and mentions it often. Turnbull’s super sized self-importance micro chip is about to blow up through extreme envy.
But if we want to talk about trust and if world leaders can trust Australian PMs lets think about Mr Sheriff Howard, the tamed and owned poodle of GW Bush. How many of our Asian leaders would trust him? What trust did Australia’s government ear with AWB corruption in its ranks, the SIEVX deaths, rendering of Habib for torture, Hicks, Iraq lies, WorkChoices assault and so on.
If a government and leader ever had serious questions to answer about trust it would certainly would be the Howard Govt.
Dario, Howard was out of line, but he was turfed out (and good riddance). What does that have to do with this?
Can someone give me one good reason why leaders will trust Rudd on the phone in future, or doesn’t anyone think it matters if they don’t?
Thomas Paine, if it was all an invention then Rudd should be more than happy to deny that there was any leak from him or his office and kill the matter. He won’t.
No one in the Australian Liberal Party has had the guts so far to say Howard was out of line.
allbull is just about at the last throw of the dice stage.
Most people trying to get through the current financial situation will just think what planet do the fibs come from.
Whats next another batch of leaflet drops in the seat of lindsay ?
dave, with respect, allbull’s proper title is The Leader of the Opposition.
(Or, based on his PPM performance today, Two Little Ducks.)
they never learn, now they’ve had a second go at Henry after this mornings foray, he could nail them at the Press Club address tomorrow, obviously the journos are going to question him over it, now the moot point is just what stance is he going to take– the perfect diplomatic public servant, or say it as it is and throw it back at the libs, of course i’m praying for the latter.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24635223-601,00.html
i wont miss it for worlds lol.
Or as Rudd called him today, much to Turnbull’s glee:
The Right Honourable Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.
Inner Westie – of course it is.
and may it long be his title – it is only proper.
I think The Australian is also heading down the path of becoming damaged goods if it isn’t already there. Its efforts to undermine the Government and uncritically support the Liberal party since the election has caused it to continually abase itself and stretch credulity to near breaking point. Much more of it and the main news of the wont be the Government of the country but what to do with some of our ’sick’ and out of control media.
Please don’t drop links without saying what it is about, I will never go to them if no clue is given. Especially OO links.
As David McKnight opined in the weekend Herald, Murdoch will cop substantial losses to promote his “ideas”:
“… last year, to support its bid for The Wall Street Journal, News Corporation began advertising itself on the theme ‘Free people. Free markets. Free thinking.’
In support of such a position, Murdoch maintains loss-making newspapers such as the New York Post and the London Times. The Australian lost millions for 20 years until the mid-1980s. Murdoch’s preparedness to take losses year after year testifies to the fact that he often puts ideas and influence before profit.”
Inner westie
“two ducks” – nice
I always thought he was a bit quackers btw
Murdoch and his support for the fibs, through the discredited OO is a bit like the fibs australian voter base – aging.
Uncle rupert is about 79 and although he comes from a long living family on his mothers side, I really wonder what happen to the OO and its stable of flunkies after rupert falls off the perch. Would the whole empire be sold off or just those sections which are not profitable enough ?
Either way when “the day” arrives it presents another opportunity for payback, eerr I mean reform of media ownership laws.
The nats will probably just wither – how long since they had any real new talent ?
And the generations coming on after the baby boomers are more inclined towards labor or the greens etc.
Further to my comment at 186 …
Pity those “ideas” are so outmoded … The Australian is a cack-caked bullhorn for a diminishing circle of neo-liberal ideaologues (which may once, perhaps, have represented something, perhaps, approximating, perhaps, an “orthodoxy”).
Pitifully low circulation is one thing; pitifully low impact is quite another.
(And to think the ABC invited this dinosaur to present the Boyer Lectures!)
Triton went:
Because a story that was at best embellished, at worst outright fabricated by a (ahem) “source” does not a matter of international gravitas make.
“Media goes apeshit on manufactured nonsense” doesn’t really qualify as a diplomatic incident, especially since both parties involved have already called bullshit on the story.
So now, with the story being twaddle it’s all about the leak. Well, the journo’s know the source…. chuckle.
But they’ve been remarkably quiet about it at The Oz.
Inner Westie
“And to think the ABC invited this dinosaur to present the Boyer Lectures !
”
Yep agree with your comment completely. limited news seems to have taken over our abc in the opinion area.
fran kelly runs with the front page of the OO on a daily basis, OO talking heads regularly dominate Insiders, sometimes lateline/ la trioli seems to get her views from the OO.
Did the current abc md come from a limited news background ?
Then uncle rupert, the yank turns up on an abc gem – the boyer lectures to pontificate to us how we ought to run the place. The same place he sold out on – chucked his australian citizenship away to make more money than he can possible ever spend.
His action speak a lot louder than his words.
But shame on the abc.
And remarkably, the red cordial kid who stirred up the bull ants nest is still standing there with his stick!
(In shock coz he’s covered in ants.)
Mesma has been caught cheating again
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/11/2416784.htm?section=justin
So itep and triton if I go to the media and state that I overheard a telephone conversation between the two of you planning to bomb the US embassy and it is printed in the Australian as “coming from a source” – does that give the story credibility? Should the two of you be investigated by the AFP because details of a conversation were leaked? By your own standards, neither of you are allowed to question the veracity of the story, even though you argue its not the content of the story, its the fact that I alledge that I overheard your statement thats the proof as your reasoning dictates.
Tom.
Frank I remember the fuss the Liberals made over Latham plagiarising. Now we have B
Yeah, let’s have a bit of a squiz down the Boyer Lectures list …
2008 – The Velociraptor – “A Golden Age of Freedom”
2007 – Graeme Clark – “Restoring The Senses”
2006 – Ian Macfarlane – “The Search For Stability”
2005 – Archbishop Peter Jensen – “The Future of Jesus”
2004 – Peter Conrad “Tales of Two Hemispheres”
2003 – Owen Harries “Benign or Imperial? Reflections on American Hegemony”
2001 – Prof Geoffrey Blainey “This Land is all Horizons: Australian Fears and Visions”
2000 – Chief Justice Murray Gleeson “The Rule of Law and the Constitution”
1999 – Dr Inga Clendinnen “True Stories”
1998 – David Malouf “A Spirit of Play: The Making of Australian Consciousness”
The choice of Kerry Stokes in 1994 (”Advance Australia Where?”) was probably fair given that at that stage he hadn’t blown $200 mil on C7 litigation …
173 – James, that’s not a technicality at all. While debating the suspension of standing orders members are asked to speak to that motion. That is, why they think the standing orders should be suspended. Rudd has not spoken against such motions before. This is not unusual.
That motion was defeated so Rudd didn’t need to speak re the censure.
ird Brain Bishop being the worst ever offender.
HYPOCRITES!
Hmm posted half way through a post?
So here’s that Tasmanian poll I was talking about yesterday:
http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/State%20Voting%20Intentions%20November%202008%20Report.pdf
Labor 30, Liberals 26, Greens 18, undecided 23.
There’s a break up of votes by age as well. Unsurprising except The Greens are out polling Liberal in the 45-54 bracket.
David Bartlett still preferred premier by an 18 point margin.
In the past I have heard “The Member for Brand”, “The Member for Hotham”, “The Member for Werriwa”, but good Lord, we have to call the Born To Rule Mentality by their correct title.
“The Queen Elizabeth II Right Honourable Leader Of The Opposition and Member for Wentworth”!
HYPOCRITES!
Lightweight!
Are they still going on about this cheap point scoring “what Dubya said” non issue?
Where is their apology to President Obama?
HYPOCRITES!
Tom,
but rudds some country bumpkin who sneakily fooled the electorate into putting the fabs in power.Why the fact he can use the phone itself is an achievement for such as he
Why the fact that some fib substantiated it by saying it happened is enough for me,goddammit..I knows when to dips me hat and tug me forelock.
Why oh why cant these ‘barbarians’ be turfed out and the natural order be resumed.
The good old days when nobody questioned anything cos no-one was allowed to.When we could believe each and every word that sprang from the fount of all knowledge.When the OO pronouncements were like epistles delivered to us mere underlings and helped make us warm against a cold dark world.
It all makes perfect sense seen in this light.
ie The fibs can do no wrong,tell no lies and are our (the electorate that is) betters.
Actually I thought Smith was better than usual in the defence of the motion.
Turnbull has gone into deep Churchillian mode (he must have read Annabel Crabbe this morning, and struggled to get his head through the parliament doors…).
Obviously someone in the PMO leaked the convo, the G20 bit is the key bit though – and that I doubt very much was the result of a leak.
I don’t think it’ll matter because it’s Bush, he’s on the way out, and it smacks of pretty loose journalism. The assumption that other leaders will worry would be right if this wass the only conversation Rudd had had with any leader. ie this would be all they had to go on. Obviously he has talked to others and this doesn’t seemed to have stopped them.
Costello blabbed about a convo with Greenspan that caused the markets to dip. It was poor form, but he seemed to survive ok; so did Australia’s reputation…
bizarre comment today by Bolt:
I guess he thinks The Oz has been kind to Rudd thus far.
I thought Rudd not calling MT “the Leader of the Opposition” was a bit poor form. A bit of silly needling on his part. Though at least the Govt does thank the oppposition members for their quesitons – my recollection is that Howard and Co only did that for DDs
Another NSW minister sacked.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rees-dumps-stewart/2008/11/11/1226318638356.html
Another reason I’m glad I don’t live in NSW!
NSW is a joke. Rees is a joke, O’Pharrell is a joke, the Labor and Liberal Parties are a joke, THE WHOLE DAMN SYSTEM is a joke.
Can we do a reverse ACT and give up self-government? It only really worked for a short period in the 30’s.
EMRS poll thread up.
Let’s sell what remains of the state to Frank Lowy so that he can complete its conversion (unhindered) into a giant tawdry shopping complex!
(And I live in Emerald!)
Bolt is still in fairy denial land I see, where the OO is higher than government and everything revoloves around it. It is the Government’s responsibility to feed and keep the OO happy it seems, the same paper that has been trying hard from the beginning to sink Rudd and promote Labor.
So what is the threat? The OO will stop the charade and just go feral FoXNews like it is so much desires. Or is the implication that the paper is in fact dishonest and will thus abuse its position by attacking the government in ‘revenge’ at some later date? That seems to be what is implied.
You can bet 5 seconds after Murdoch karks it the media laws will be changed. In fact if at anytime Labor looks like it wont win an election and it has the numbers in the Senate expect a sudden rush of laws that smash up Murdoch’s Australian empire.
Promote Liberals.
Labour on the come-back trail in Britain.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24635722-2703,00.html
The yanks had a close escape on November 4th. Sara Palin believes God is going to show her the way to the White House but only if she can find the door. Otherwise she is just going to have to break through, with his permission of course. WOW!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24634911-2703,00.html
Being just one heart-beat away from President, Rudd would have had some strange phone calls with her.
Frank @ 193,
You wonder if they have a computer program that goes and searches this stuff out or something
…….
If she didn’t know Africa was a continent, god knows what geographic misunderstandings she has of Australia!
And you’d think god’d be courteous enough to provide Palin with an open door she didn’t have to “plow through” … (and one that didn’t deliver her directly into the claws of The Beast) …
Centre @ 201,
President-elect until mid January.
( I know, I wish it would happen sooner but we’re not so lucky )
You’re assuming she would trust him
Australia is a small island in the heart of Europe.
cuppa, bite your tongue
Yes, but what about Unaustralia? (The exile island for Howard’s pinkos.)
Australia is a state of mind
Man … (like surfing) …
Nah, our public transport is too crap.
Has anyone considered that the Australian report of the conversation between Rudd and Shrub was entirely true and factually reported?
Rudd cannot refute the Yanks denial because it would cause an international “incedent”. The head honcho from the Oz cannot say “hey its all true, I heard it on speakerphone”.
Does anyone seriously doubt that Shrub has any clue about the G20 or anything else?
I think mitchell has been told to shut up by murdoch.
rudd has to dump mitchell.
All politicians need the following tattooed on their hands – ” The media are never
my friend. I must not get into the cage with the animals.”
Why they can’t work that out is beyond me.
Sometimes, although he is stupid, I could believe Bush saying ‘What’s the G20?’, but be joking about it – he has the ability to take the piss out of himself. How does anyone then explain ‘but is was just a joke’ – when everyone is trying to be so serious about the leak.
As usual the Libs wasted another QT. They really need a reality check. They have zero credibility on so many issues.
So their only salvation is in developing policies, what happened to Ms Bishop’s policy review? Or do they think they can “do a Beazley” and win the next election without policies?
The only policy they had, petrol excise reduced by 5c, has been scrapped.
Chris Uhllman, why do you keep trying?
He’s obviously waiting for a job offer from The Australian.
ffs, of course George Bush is aware of and indeed understands the G20
The man may be a fool, but he isn’t an idiot (there’s a difference)
All the rest is bunkum.. who knows what,why,where or whom was said… but I refuse to accept that the Pres of the USA(8 years) hasn’t heard of the G20
I acknowledge others have commented on this, and Possum makes the point, but surely the story here is that the polls are almost static? I find that remarkable, given the rubbish being peddled as political news these days. Consistent samples of the population are saying repeatedly, yep, we’re with the guy from Queensland and his mob.
One of the things so fundamentally wrong headed about the attacks on Rudd’s credibility re: “the phone call”, is the trust differential between Rudd and Turnbull. I think it was Thomas Paine who referred to it earlier, and I have as well. The public trust Rudd more than they do Turnbull. Who’re you goin’ to call? Kevin from Queensland who’s here to help, or the ego from the North Shore?
I cannot believe that a telephone call is the most important thing in Australian politics at the moment.
The US economy is in recession, the UK is about to enter one and Australian economic growth predictions have been downgraded. There is a new head of state in the US and a new PM in NZ.
And yet – the most important thing in Australia is one lousy phone call. What a joke!!!
What happened to AC Nielsen?
I just had a rather mischievous thought just as I sent the last comment. Rudd and Mitchell know each other. Rudd is god father to one of Mitchell’s children. They must share something…perhaps a sense of humour? Mitchell is certainly in the next room when Rudd takes the call. The call is on speaker phone. Rudd gets off the phone and rejoins the dinner guests who all start joking about the dill in the White House. Mitchell thinks it a great gag to get Franklin to write the story as if it’s a serious version of events.
Think about it. The Opposition go into an over the top lather, with calls for AFP investigations, enquiries, and hopefully no one ever talking to Rudd on the international stage ever again. But, the O.O. goes quiet and Obama cheerfully returns Rudd’s congratulations phone call, and they just have a bit of a chat.
Meanwhile, Rudd and Mitchell are laughing themselves silly. And when I think about that possible scenario, so am I.
Rudd did declare he would play with certain people’s minds, if you recall.
Oz, like you I was expecting the AC Neilsen, as himself indoors was polled not long ago.
Only to the Malcom and the libs is it of any importance, I agree with HSO, Rudd and Mitchell are laughing themselves silly.
And why bring Malcolm in on the joke, leave him focused on the phone call whilst the govt concentrates on the serious stuff.
Maybe PB’s could help keep the issue alive by suggesting different scenarios, like Brian Burke was in the room when Rudd was on the phone and so was a stripper!
I think Turnbull has got this one wrong. Most Aussies think George W is an idiot and couldn’t care less if Rudd was taking the piss out of him. If Rudd did it that is. If he didn’t, there’s no story. It just makes Turnbull look desperate and petty.
It’s time the media put up or shut up. An unnamed source has been contradicted by our PM and the US President.
For this not being an issue at all you people do like to talk about it.
]Why oh why cant these ‘barbarians’ be turfed out and the natural order be resumed.]
“Barbarians” (and also “oafs”, in the same sentence) is the word Pies used in a recent column on “Phonegate”. Are you giving yourself away Gusface #202?
Brissenden, he of the unblinking eyes (do you have to use drops to treat that?) was STILL on about Phonegate.
What a waste of precious air time.
It’s clear that Chris Mirchell is in this right up to his neck. It’s also clear why the OO has gone quiet (see last sentence). The connection is far too obvious to put to one side: [i]the OO is its own leak[/i]. It could hardly wrtie anything about who the leaker is without getting caught up in such a vortex of circle-jerking as to make Turnbull’s pompous performance today seem like sober common sense.
Meanwhile, did anyone notice a certain – shall we say – “lack of vigour” in the OO’s esponse to their “exclusive” Newspoll today? Methinks Shanahan is just going through the motions.
Back to those little pieces of paper and the Ouji board, Dennis….
But it is an issue LTEP, Malcolm should keep on pushing it, demanding an answer, it is a matter of grave concern to all Australians.
Under these circumstances the “unnamed source” will never be found. If it was a pro labor source the leak woldn’t have happened. If it was a pro-conservative source it risks either embarrassing Bush (who has denied it) if on Bush’s staff or being vulnerable to legal action if on Rudd’s staff. The final possibility is the source doesn’t exist and was just made up by an unscrupulous media hack. Where else could the “information” have come from? It doesn’t add up.
Who knows, if he pushes long enough he may get his PPM down to Nelson’s record
BB
Interesting isn’t it, that we no longer get the detailed break-up of survey questions from Newspoll. I wonder who teh voters rate teh best person to handle the economy now? I find it hard to believe Newspoll have stopped asking – consistency of whole survey length and wording is important for longitudinal tracking of survey results. I suspect we’ll never be told though.
I think rudd is brilliant in handling ‘phonegate.’ He doesn’t kill it completely off, leading a fool like Turdbull to keep on pushing the issue like today in QT.
Meanwhile, Joe Blow is worried about losing his job and his house. He hears Turdbull going on about phonegate and thinks ‘wanker!’ Meanwhile the govt announces stuff like the support for the car makers, the $10.4Bn spend, infrastructure etc and hopes that will save his job and thinks Rudd is OK. The polls not moving just by themselves!
Rudd did something similar in the election campaign. Howard, behind in the polls and not much time left to change anything, challenges Rudd to name Swan as his Treasurer. Rudd stretches this out for pretty much the whole day, robbing Howard of vital publicity oxygen and letting Australia contemplete who would be Labor’s Treasurer. Without Sinodonis Howard was crap.
Malcolm Tunbull … doing his best to mix with the “ordinary” Australians in Bondi.
That’s the article by Malcolm Farr referred to earlier and it is quite mocking of Turnbull.
Malcolm Turnbull is turning into a front bar bloke
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24628155-5007146,00.html
Front bar blokes are the toffs, popping into the local hotel to feel the atmosphere, the back bar is where the locals and the workers drink.
Another Malcolm (Fraser), long ago, tried to show he could also mix withe ordinary folk and had a couple with the locals. He was up against Hawkie and needed to show he was not out of touch. Malcolm got semi-pissed and almost, almost looked human.
Farr also has a nice dig at Turnbull,
In other words he is still an insufferable toff.
Socrates
Newspoll does report those measures but they only ask them a few times a year.
The last “Better Economic Manager” was from 24-6 Oct and Rudd beat Truffles 50-35. Interestingly, Truffles beat Rudd in the one before the GFC taken on 19-21 Sep by 43-41.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=6
My comment “puke” to Farr’s article didn’t get published!
Rudd should not forget other tactics especially when he is on the power side of the argument and the Opposition can only oppose. Howard was adept out creating a fight (wedge) with someone or the Opposition in order to demonstrate the strength of the Government and to broadly criticise and undermine the opponent, as long as he picked the right issue.
The global economic crisis and his counter measures are the prime opportunity for Rudd to go to town on the Liberals with some hyperbole of his own. Make them look like they want Australia to fail, trying to undermine ordinary Australians and so on. This is the emotive part of the wedge that hooked the public that Howard used to find time and again. Howard used to use even the slightest bit of criticism or lack of unqualified support as an opportunity. Hence Rudd’s straight bat during the election on Haneef and The Intervention.
“This was a dog when it started, it became mangy throughout its life, and the less said about its demise the better”.
Is Barnaby talking about fuel watch? Or the National Party.
Well, today’s question time was an opportunity for the Liberals to ask some pointed questions based on their view of how to manage the GFC and it is now clear they have no idea. Another day of bashing the regulators instead. Tomorrow will be spent bashing the regulators of the financial system and Thursday they will play up to get early flights home. What a waste of time they are at present.
WTF?
The other day the Libs wre criticising Rudd for not letting hte economic dominoes fall whereh they may, regarding ABC Learning. “Let them go broke”, they chimed.
Now, according to the (other) ABC, Rudd is “driving clients away from ABC Learning” by refusing to guarantee the viability of the child care centres beyond December.
One day the government’s response is too much, and literally the next day it’s too little.
Apart from the fact that a little matter of ABC Learning going broke might “drive clients away”, does anyone see anything slightly, uhm, two-faced about the Libs’ attack de jour?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/11/2416980.htm
TP 248
Perhaps he could ask the opposition if they still think Workchoices is the solution to the problem. Woudl they rather that wages were “flexible” to fall now as a solution to the problem? I wonder what Julie Bishop still thinks of it?
It’s been their standard modus operandi since Turnbull took the job
BB
Only if i had a lobotomy and added about 100 pounds of blubber.
Geez, B.B, they should be vopting. I thought we’d cleared up that it would get rid of GFC and probably stop climate change in a nanosecond?
Well the problem is that usually the media would be taking the Opposition to task for having two positions at the same time and wouldn’t let them get away with simply chaning their position every few seconds to find some advantage.
Unfortunately the ABC is simply the Liberal BC and are losing their remaining honest bones quickly. The Murdoch media are no better than Turnbull and it is probably them giving him positions and talking points to go on (Maybe the Murdoch media or OO IS Turnbull). Thus Turnbull can be as two faced and hypocritical as he likes and no one will know unless they happened to catch his first stance on something.
B.B., the so-called Coalition have about as much consistency as they have loyalty. Shadenfreude has just got better, I’ve got to say
Sorry, was thinking about what to say when I got timed out. Got to go do a lot of other stuff for work, so night all. Bye.
Yes, there has never ever been a more irresponsible major party that can take so many different positions in such a short amount of time as this mob.
What a waste of taxpayers dollars they are. Why don’t Hockey and Abbott give QT a miss and go out and have a game of footy to promote good health or something. At least make yourselves useful for gods sake!.
And while they’re at it, they should have a look at the scoreboard – 62 to 22 LOL.
About the finalisation of the redistribution in WA: I think it’s a little bit sad that an electorate as venerable and interesting as Kalgoorlie will perish.
It also goes against the AEC’s own guidelines for the naming of electorates. I quote http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Electoral_DPM/Guideline.htm : Every effort should be made to retain the names of original Federation Divisions.
O’Connor has only existed since 1980. So, why favour the O’Connor name over Kalgoorlie?
Well after 9 months of battles with flocks of Obama suporters and just a week after his ascension , th US thread is deserted by th Obamaphiles , th party hats ar there , balloons , free drink and amigo Ron ….and so i wonders what “event” could hav captured imaginations away from history …ah PhoneGate
And th relevance of US thread is th Amigos carefully coined & royal assented these “…Gates like PastorGate , FriscoGate , PinGate etc from some reality of fact through a vigorous authentifation ceremoiny of th Gang of three , but PhoneGate has been created by 00 alone , without either approvals or realitys It seems PhoneGate is not pnly a hoax
….unsolicited …unproven …but in contraventions of any seals of approval , and worser , his toffiness is asking questions about a non existent conversation , Ruddy is replying denying this non existent converrsation but leaving some ‘bait’ for toffyiness to dig a hole for himselfs , and 00 is putting its non exsitent reputation on th line about this non existent conversation …and then our commentariats explain intricate theoryies about this non existent conversation…breathlessley awaiting Newspolls poll of who believes in voterlands that this non existent conversation exists anywhere , and yet th World saw a black man get elected 7 days ago , markets worldwide ar teethering , recesions ar at many countrys doorsteps , and ‘oz’ is faced maybe with 7/8% unemployemtn in 2010 , higher inflation and a possible budget deficit then as well , with an electorol chalenge to then overcome against his toffiness who may in 2010 be not as bad a Leader in voters minds as apears now ….and that hoax just does not seem important , let alone reel
The electorate contains plenty of other regional centres, like Albany, Esperance, Manjimup and Narrogin. The town of Kalgoorlie is only one place, and it’s confusing/weird to have the south coast and half of the wheatbelt and south west in an electorate named after a mining town 1000 km away.
Anyway, if you’re looking for interesting, the state seat of Kalgoorlie rarely fails to disappoint. Refer to the last WA election.
Albrechsen’s new pejorative catchphrase, girls and boys, is “intellectual left”. Get used to it, because you are going to hear it ad nauseam from now on.
Everything Rudd does, every phrase he utters, is, according to her latest epistolic profundity, directed at pleasing and appeasing the “intellectual left”.
Obviously therefore by corollary, everyone that didn’t vote Labor constitutes the intellectually challenged, or non intellectual right.
For once I find myself agreeing with her.
It’s your classic Rainmaker Scam: tip every horse in the race (to different mugs). They’re counting on Bill and Edna Public to only read one of the two stories; to grab the ying and miss the yang, as it were.
However, as an Opposition I have high confidence in them: they are perfectly capable of holding multiple opposing positions simultaneously.
Shanahan has apparently been deputised to write the follow-up story on Phonegate for The Australian. It’s the closest I’ve seen him come to straight reporting in years. What I mean by this is that there’s little if any opinionation in the piece, although it does omit to cover the rather large gorilla in the corner: Chris Mitchell, his own editor, as in “Mitchell was there.”.
Annabelle Crabbe, still looking girlish in her 80s curls, in another of her fluff pieces full of chuckling good humour at the pecadilloes of QT, at least gets to the point: when a newspaper editor is present at a dinner where a phone call is taken, and the contents of that phone call are subsequently splashed all over the front page of his own newspaper, it’s not too difficult to figure out who wrote the story, no matter whose actual by-line was under the header.
The substance of Turnbull’s allegations is that Rudd has libelled Bush. He’s not beating around the… er… bush any more. He’s coming out and clearly implying that Rudd was the leaker. “If not Rudd, then who else could it be?” goes the logic. However, Crabbe points out that Turnbull too has failed to identify the large hominid in the room, sitting munching bananas while the humans slug it out: Chris Mitchell again.
You’d think it was pretty hard to libel Bush any more than he has libelled himself, so who gives a toss about that? No-one, of course, but Turnbull’s charge is another example of the “character” (or rather “poor characater”) strategy so beloved of conservatives who can’t believe the public doesn’t like them (if the results of the latest Newspoll are to be factored in… perhaps that’s a gorilla on the other side of the room?). Rudd’s “libelling” of Bush means that no other leader will ever trust him. That’s beautiful leverage, amplifyingan out of date story (even when it was written) into a national disgrace to Australia, and something that threatens our very well-being as a viable country. Rudd is now totally discredited in the eyes of world leaders, no matter whether the story is true, partly true or false, as all claim it to be) so I guess he may as well resign right now, a lame duck with big ear who is “fabulously indiscreet” (as the Age put it last Saturday).
The report of the phone conversation was unremarkable except for the “What’s the G20?” bit in the middle. This has been denied and it is accepted that it did not happen (by most, I think, at least officially). So what are we left with? Rudd spoke to Bush about the G20. What’s so “indiscreet” about that? Nothing, of course. But Turnbull hopes that one day he’ll be able to pin all our future woes (whatever they may be) on Rudd being frozen out of the world leaders’ club as a result of a phone call that may have happened, but which probably didn’t happen in the way Turnbull is suggesting it did.
That most of this is coming from a man who famously betrayed his friend in a dingy car-park in Bondi Junction, to win a few advantage points for his next clients is forgotten altogether. I can hear Kerry Packer up there laughing at the inanity of it all.
Fulvio, thanks for the tip, but you missed what I think is Ms Albrechtsen’s funniest line…
“That business failure, though painful, is an inevitable and even necessary precursor to progress – part of capitalism’s creative destruction – has been forgotten.”
I do hope that Julie Bishop takes to borrowing Janet’s lines as well.
Ok, enough Fran Kelly. Today was abysmal. I’ve turned off the radio and I’m going to give ABC2 a try.
Fran kelly – I’ve thought for a looong time that she was so blatantly biased but also realise she is not that bright.
Maybe she is the only one at our abc dumb enough to be talked into getting up early each morning to go to work.
We will see more of her work monday night when “The rodent years” screens on fib-tv.
I wonder if rodent “selected” fib-fran to work on the project as the price for his co-operation ? She was certainly in the front row cheering squad during the last election. No matter what the latest development was fran, saw it as a positive for team rodent.
Her soft interviews of rodent during the campaign were a total disgrace.
But she at least got tinker with history via the coming series. Wonder if mad monk Mk2 ulman pokes his beak in ?
Good luck with fib-tv2 and cassidy. Prehaps he is in better form earlier in the morning.
la trivoi ?? sure you can stomach her and your coffee at the same time ?
I just posted this on the NSW politics thread:
The NSW “mini-budget” gets a deserved bagging from Ross Gittins in the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/labor-sham-will-make-it-worse/2008/11/11/1226318651785.html
The gist of it is that in cutting spending now, while NSW is in recession, the government is actually making the NSW recession deeper. They should accept a budget deficit to stimulate activity. Their strategy is the exact opposite of Rudd and Swan’s (correct) strategy.
There is one interesting aspect of this federally. If the opposition criticise the NSW mini-budget (they should) then they woudl have to admit the Federal Labor strategy is correct. The two budget strategies (NSW and Federal Labor) are opposites, so they can’t both be right. The vast majority of economists agree that Rudd adn Swan are right, and Rees is wrong. (I was willing to be sympathetic to Rees at first, but it is clear that nothing has changed under him. Steady as she sinks for Sydney and NSW.)
What kind of pathetic government runs it’s policies on the basis of maintaining a “AAA” credit rating? Who cares? No one cares. Especially since the same idiot company that is giving NSW AAA said that the sub-prime mortgages were fine and dandy as well.
Possum (190) and Tom (194), it seems to accepted fact that a leak of the conversation did occur, regardless of how much rubbish was in the newspaper account of it. I would have thought that the mere fact of the leak is enough reason to make a world leader more wary than usual about what he says to Rudd on the phone. No?
If the leaker was Rudd himself then it would be unlikely to happen again, but if it was an official, who knows? That’s why it would help if the leaker were identified.
Didn’t Bush supposedly do some tough talking to Rudd during APEC last year? Maybe they don’t get on too well and that has something to do with it.
Precisely Oz. After the posturing, Rees has proven himself no different to his predecessors when it comes to decision making.
with all the confected rage about phonegate theres not been one letter to the editor nor one call on local talkback, other than a few journos jumping on the bandwagon it just doesnt echo with Joe voter, it’s more of a fizzergate, Joe is worried about his job and morgage, he’s worried about the cost of food, he’s worried about the financial crisis getting worse and he’s grateful for Rudd’s trying to give him a soft landing, Annabelle Crabb wrote a reasonably fair summary of the situation here, pity other journos, who are trying to stir the pot with their inflamitory scribblings couldnt be so well balanced and factual about it all.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/kirribilli-silly-billies/2008/11/11/1226318651089.html
The NSW Labor govt is beyond a joke now. It’s actively destroying the state’s economy.
I’ve resolved to vote 1 for the Democrats in 2011 (if they stand a candidate in my seat) and then exhaust my preferences…
triton
the OO reported this. they have made the choice to shut up rather than put up.
They would be the first in line screaming for blood if an allegation was made against them or the fibs without proof.
In truth the OO have again be just too smart for their own good – like with the post-dated emails on the Gov G/- for banks.
They lead the pack of msm who have delusions that they are “players” that they are movers n shakers. They manufacture so called news rather than honestly report it. It all about a power trip for them and thats why the few jornos worthy of that name stand out – the grattens etc of this world who report honestly on all side of politics.
All the OO need to do re the kirribilli caper is put up. They just haven’t got the balls to do so.
The voter don’t care anyway. anyone with a brain knows GWB is DUMB and the sooner he is back in texas the safer the world will be in general.
I note the Government haven’t asked the Australian to reveal their source. If they have nothing to fear they’d do it.
ltep, that’s rubbish. Why do the Government need to do anything?
the OO so called, newspaper of record by some people has painted itself into a corner on this.
Let them get themselves out of it.
Why interrupt while they are damaging what is left of their brand name.
Why are they running dead on this – way out of character – they think they know it all.
Judgement has not been a strength of the OO for sometime. Some people would say truthfulness rarely has been.
Fargo, Albrechsen’s article is a goldmine of resource for extreme free market lunatic thinking.
Did you also notice her bizarre assertion that Rudd is “falsely demonising risk taking and greed”? Maybe she thinks its proponents should be cannonised for bringing the world economies to their knees?
This woman leaves Gordon Gecko for dead as a supporter of the money is everything philosophy. In fact a gecko is not a big enough lizard to encompass her outlook.
Dario, if people on here have the strength to tell the ‘OO’ to put up or shut up it’d hardly be difficult for the Government to do so. They’re not because they know they are the ones who provided the details to the paper.
Absolutely FV!
People who make a virtue of greed are like those who saw “Wall Street” and didn’t get the joke. “Greed is Good” was a line uttered by the villain in sarcasm – it wasn’t meant to be an endorsement! Yet that is how many have chosen to interpret it. Anyone who thinks that financiers who skim off milions of other people’s money for the “service” of investing compulsory superannuation contributions at below average rates of return are doing good for the economy is deluded. There is no wealth created – only transferred. It is a zero sum game.
The real wealth creation of our country is by all the ordinary people who start businesses, educate and train people, provide services, construct buldings and infrastructure, or create new ideas. The finance industry is parasitic on them. Without the rest it couldn’t exist.
Coonan needs to continue the delusion that corporate financiers create the wealth because it was her own area of legal work before parliament. To admit it is a scam is to admit her own work was worthless.
There you go assuming again ltep. You’re as bad as the Opposition. Got any proof?
Why then hasn’t mitchell said boo since the story was run ?
Why hasn’t he confirmed or denied seeing or hearing what is alleged ? Why hasn’t he been interviewed by other so called journos from any msm outlet ? That is MOST unusual.
Rudd, the us ambassador and the white house have denied the comment was made.
checkmate.
put up or shut up. prove what has been alleged or publish a retraction and apology.
Socrates, I saw Wall Street recently and if “Greed is good” was said sarcastically it escaped me. It was part of a speech given by Gordon Gecko to convince the shareholders of a company that he was a liberator of companies, not a destroyer of them.
http://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechwallstreet.html
Gordon Gecko ultimately failed. That was what undermined “Greed is good”.
On the money is everything philosophy …
If you’ve devoted most of your life to the accumulation of wealth*, it’s hardly surprising that you’d regard questions about the value or purpose of an essentially material existence as threatening.
* And I truly believe there are people out there who fit this description.
ltep – you maybe right but then again you could be wrong. You seem to believe that a failure to deny or answer is an admission of guilt. Not necessarily my friend.
Eg – Q: Are you a millionaire? A: Mind you own business.
Conclusion: You are a millionaire.
I watched both 7 and 9 news services last night. Laurie Oakes on 9 gave it to Rudd with both barrels on this “phonegate” BS while 7 ignored politics completely.
There’s a lot. Our entire social system is based on it.
Look at the way we measure a nations success for chrissakes! “GDP Growth”. In other words, how much crap we buy, regardless of whether or not we can afford it.
The ultimate irony of our age is that we desperately need to stop buying crap, even though everything is manufactured to have built-in obsolescence, for the sake of the environment, but doing so would reduce “growth” figures. I would relish a slump in consumer spending because we’re already so far into debt, if it didn’t mean rising unemployment. Because we’re very unlikely to get one without the other there has be some kind of shift in the way we do business.
Dave @ #275:
Christ Dave! I nearly choked on my apple!
If you think her writing (typically), “It could be good. It could be bad… or it might be some place in between,” is an example of honesty then you are far gone, baby.
BB, if Michelle Grattan is not an even-handed commentator, who is?
If we are going to live in a capitalist market economy, we have to take the good and the bad. Part of the bad is fluctuating unemployment with fluctuating market and business conditions.
You don’t understand what I was saying. Even in the “good” times, economically, when “growth” is positive, the consequences of that growth in a number of areas are negative.
Ugh. Ken Henry ends his address to the National Press Club which is overwhelmingly about tax reform, and Clinton Porteus gets the first question, and acts like it’s question time, and he’s the leader of the opposition with the whole ‘2 in front of it’ growth dribble, and indirectly accuses him of manipulating figures.
Porteus is as bad as Akerman, Milne, and Albrectson.
Perhaps not ‘honest’ in that sense, but at least she doesn’t just attack one side day in day out.
What was Henry’s response?
“What was Henry’s response?”
Basically, it is the right thing to do in an economy such as ours to factor in the predicted direction of future interest rate movements.
I’d agree. Why would you base future growth on current interest rates when it is highly unlikely to be the case? That’s why treasury always release revised forecasts.
What about the RBA’s forecast? Obviously, they cannot take future interest rate movements into account, yet the treasury can.
Why is this being an issue now? Surely Treasury and the RBA have done this sort of thing before?
Hence the disparity.
“What about the RBA’s forecast? Obviously, they cannot take future interest rate movements into account, yet the treasury can.”
Your point being?
BB
Re Gratten – compared to others eg limited news people who call themselves journos – she comes up smelling of roses everytime.
Walter Cronkite said during a visit here years ago that australia had too many journos and not enough news. To that you could add we do not have enough good journos.
Take it easily with that apple
My point being that if the treasury forecast is necessarily more accurate than the RBA’s forecast because it takes estimations of future interest rates into account then the RBA forecast is superfluous.
Seems everyone understands that except the Coalition.
All this bunkum about the difference between various growth forecasts just demonstrates the utter illiteracy and ignorance of our media.
FFS they are estimates. For the sake of accuracy they should probably publish the estimate with a Margin of Error and confidence percentage as in we’re 95% confidence growth will end up being 2% +/- 0.3%. But anyone who takes any of these numbers as anything other than a rough guess is a fool. These are numbers produced by models containing lord knows how many assumptions. If they get within 1% they’re doing well. The argument that Treasury is fudging the figures because the IMF comes in with a number 0.2% lower is worse than a joke. They are for all intents and purposes predicting the same level of growth unless they are coming out and saying they are 100% confident of their prediction to within 0.1%. They aren’t saying that and they wouldn’t because they ain’t stupid unlike those picking up on the difference as though it was in any way significant.
As for the RBA not including interest rate changes well that’s pretty obvious as to why they can’t (oh look we haven’t announced it yet, but we’re going to reduce interest rates by 1.5% over the next 12 months – just keep it to yourself ok?). That doesn’t mean anyone else should ignore what seems fairly obvious. Of all the assumptions built into these models, a reduction in interest rates over the coming year would be one of the most easily defensible at this time. The RBA assessment needs to be seen in this context, and if they’re predicting 1.5% even without further easing of monetary policy they would seem a lot more bullish than possibly even Treasury. A prediction of 1.5% growth BEFORE any additional growth from dropping rates is way more positive than the ‘we’ll be rooned’ mob.
The fact that almost no one in the media has the brains to nail the opposition for their idiocy and/or dishonesty in their campaign against Henry on this matter shows them up for the bottom feeding lightweights they are.
At the end of the day though it doesn’t mean a thing. The result will end up being the result and most of the predictions will forgotten. Those that do care will look at their predictions and analyze where their assumptions were out, adjust their model and do it all over again.
304 adub
Agreed
The generally blank looks in the press club when faced with a mildly technical Q+A session with Ken Henry tells the story I suspect.
Take a look at the ABC headline “…denies…”
It’s all just pathetically simple, because that’s all the press can handle.
Henry gave a very good insight today into the future direction of the Australian taxation system, and gave some very good answers to the current stupid forecast differences issues.
The oppositions continued appeals to the masses at the expense of anyone of intelligence higher than that of a homeless drunk can’t be endearing them to anyone who is capable of driving the policy development they (and OUR country) so desperately requires.
Looks like an intellectual death spiral to me.
Turnbull has just asked Rudd about his denial to address the “…false leak…”
Yep – that’s his exact words.
That about sums it up.
maybe if we bought talcum some incontinence pads he would be able to deal with his “false leaks’.
In fact i’ve just sent a pack of depend to fiberal HQ in canberra.
I suggest other bludgers do so as well.
wonder if “people skills” will get chucked out again today.
He is poised again today looking for a punch up.
Alas he has been in the boxing ring a few rounds too long.
At this point of time both set of predictions are pointing to a similar outcome and as us poll watchers know its not the daily numbers that matter but the over all trend.
That trend is the Australian economy is slowing, Unemployment will rise a little as school leavers hit the market, but in saying this I’m still inclinde to believe we can avoid recession for while the advice from several Recruitment Consultants I’m friends with is things are very quiet, but when I loom at the currant situation several things stand out.
This morning the Age newspaper reported well heeled suburbs within the Kooyong, Higgins area were down this I noticed has been a developing story for the past few months and while it isn’t a good thing if you have just brought into the market but in the longer term is a good thing for Rents and pay were not keeping pace with the large increases I’ve seen in these areas.
I feel this may help save Australia from a bigger downturn in the longer term, also at the Federal level we have seen several measures that will provide some positive spending and the full effects of the Interest rates had combined with future rate cuts should see Australia come thought this time, my biggest worry is the behaviour of the NSW Government that seems to want to make the same mistakes that Governments made in 1890 and 1930, that being to cut spending.
Normally I strongly oppose budget debt but as long as it is due to short term spending then we can live with it for a year or two, in other words the two Sydney rail projects should proceed for they are once off spending.
Krugman was writing the other day that Obama’s problem with advocating an immediate stimulus package was that he might not be aggressive enough. He was saying think of your number then add 50%. Better to be too much than not enough.
As far as NSW goes the government is just about terminal anyway so being careful and introspective aint going to help them. They have nothing to lose so they may as well do the right things and take on debt for spending in the right areas.
Australian journalism is like a pack of mangy dogs chasing after the back wheel of a bike. Make a lot of pointless noise and waste a lot of energy on something they don’t understand. The sooner the Liberal Party ABC is morteined and Murdoch karks it followed by a total change in media laws, the better for the country.
At the moment the ABC and Murdoch media simply encourage and enhance the incompetence of the Opposition by not holding them to even the lowest standard of credibility. That they (the media) aid and abet the attack on the RBA and Treasury for political purposes shows they have not one care about anybody or anything else apart from trying to help the Liberal party, at whatever expense to the country. Media seems to be at its lowest point in terms of honesty and quality and purpose. Maybe they will follow the path of the Republicans and Liberal party.
ffs the media is predictable if nothing else
Sound familiar?
Why Obama Looks Like a One Termer
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/11/11/why-obama-could-be-a-one-term-president.html
I have to throw this in…
Hope floats in watery ring of democracy
Best laugh I’ve had all day. It’s a boilerplate Obama article, but instead written about John Key.
mex,
The NSW government is the best advertisement for the maxim that ‘most governments get one term more than they should’. They started off as a fairly competent administration, if far too spooked about budget deficits. Now though they are that far beyond merely incompetent as to be dangerous. Yesterday was a disaster for NSW (and the nation) and will set us back years. We needed spending on infrastructure, lower taxes and red tape and S&P be damned.
Rees makes people long for Debnam. He might mean well, but he hasn’t got a clue. So long as O’Farrell can keep his trap shut NSW Labor is going to get mother of all hidings come 2011 and it will be richly deserved. Let’s hope the Libs can get over the ‘debt is baaaad’ rubbish they’ve been peddling since Greiner and use some borrowings to finance the infrastructure investment this state has missed out on since Wran was in Macquarie St. They’re going to get three terms minimum if they don’t stuff it up completely.
Yeah, yeah, NSW government is bad, will get thrown out. Just wait your two years and you’ll get that miracle government that will fix everything. LOL
There’s no way the Libs will be in power for 12 years. Anyway, there’s another thread for NSW stuff.
hmmm don’t remember saying the Libs would fix everything, In fact I have very grave doubts about them as expressed regarding debt financing, but sure go ahead and pretend the current government have any redeeming features at all if it helps you cope.
These turkeys are trashing the Labor brand and it will take a long time or monumental Coalition incompetence before the people of NSW are willing to give them another shot. 2011 will make Unsworth look like winner. But hey I’ll cop Oz’s tip and move further discussion to the correct thread.
Please point out where I say this government has any redeeming features.
I don’t know if you recall how bad the Kirner government was in Victoria in the early 90’s but I assure you they would push the Rees government for ineptitude. I helped them out the door and helped Kennett to get in by a very big margin if I remember correctly. He lasted 7, that’s 7 years. Don’t assume NSW Labor will be in opposition for the next decade. Political fortunes move quickly.
Didn’t watch QT today but it sounds as if it was fun, Tuckey finally got his just desserts
….
Juliem
Tuckey wears these suspensions as a badge of courage.
he does this to catch the flight to perth and ensure he has a long weekend at home
(more time to practice his “witty” outbursts methinks)
Gus, when the punishment is desirable and no longer a deterrent they need to get another form of punishment
…… same as rule #1 from Parenting 101 class 
AW WHAT. The one day I don’t watch. =(
It certainly was! The Opposition started with its current line of questioning regarding the “phone leak”, until their third or so question, when the PM said (paraphrasing) “instead of this, you should be asking members of the former government about the ONA leak a certain Melbourne paper reported on”. Then nothing.
All remaining Oppostion questions seemed ad hoc and without theme. Quite boring until Wilson stamped his foot.
Look who’s joined the party:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24641486-12377,00.html
Idiot.
I wonder if he’ll attempt to make Bush front the inquiry.
No, you idiot. As the article said earlier:
So that leaves one. The scope of the inquiry should simply be to ascertain why The Australian published mistruths.
This is just getting ridiculous
True, but that means we’re getting closer to the punchline
not since the “narrowing” have the public been subjected to such a blatant lie as the latest smear .
The fact that both the us and oz gvts have denied any “leak” does nothing to stop the hyenas of the press continuing to bay the stories merit
The mock outrage by the fibs (and now boyblunder has thrown in his lot as well) attests to the fact that this is some heavy duty issue that affects the outcome of the world in the fib worldview.
Too bad the fibs cant concentrate as much energy into policy development and reasonable debate.
Triton wrote earlier on:
Grattan is lazy and cliched (which, when discussing a writer, amounts to the same thing).
For example, the other day she wrote that the mortgage funds had lost “mega-billions” of dollars as a result of Rudd’s bank guarantee policy.
Firstly they didn’t “lose” anything. But let’s move on from this egregious error of fact.
“Mega” means “million”. She used “billions“… plural. Multiply 1,000,000 (1 x mega) by 2-billion (2 x”billion”) and you arrive at the result: Two-thousand trillion dollars. Since only $14 billion was involved in the funds, dividing 14 billion into 2,000 trillion shows that Grattan over-egged her estimate by 143,000 to one. That’s out by a factor of over 5 orders of magnitude.
Yes, yes, yes, she was writing creatively, or poeticalloy, but 143,000 times the actual figure is a lot of poetry. It’s lazy, incompetent, cliched and downright dangerous. Grattan either had no sense of arithmetic (dangerous in a journalist writing about economic numbers), she couldn’t be bothered actually working the correct figure out (laziness) or she had an agenda (to turn a very respectable response by the government into some kind of disaster). I think it’s a mix of all three.
And that’s why I don’t think Grattan is at all balanced.
Anyone can toss off “mega billions”, like 16 year old schoolkids talking about how rich someone else’s father is. But not an experienced “respected” journalist. Anyone can say things will go well, badly or in-between, as Grattan does regularly. But that is not good journalism, and is certainly not balance. It’s laziness and cuteness rolled up into one ball of incompetence. La Stupenda should retire and make way for someone who isn’t just going through the motions.
It’s the old conservative standby: tiny mistakes (assuming there was one) can and will be leveraged into nation-destroying catastrophes, but only by Labor.
We have the ex-PM, Howard, saying the terrorists would be praying for an Obama-Democrat win, thus in one stroke retrospectively justifying the landslide of votes away from him. This was a public, deliberate statement and is palmed off as a mere bagatelle.
Yet, get the paper-clips order wrong, and suddenly the Labor bod responsible has his whole character and judgement, even the fate of the nation called into question.
It’s a manifestation of the “born to rule” mentality: Labor just aren’t “the kind of chaps” you want anywhere near the wheels of power. They are “oafs” and “barbarians”, as Akerman puts it. No further justification necessary.
But judging by the results of the latest Newspoll, it doesn’t work. there’s a word for beating your head against a brick wall repeatedly, trying the same failed technique time and time again: madness.
I rest my case. It’s Henry and the government against the doomsayers.
From my experience the doomsayers are up against it. Most people I talk to despair of the negativity of the media. They’re sick of it.
I’m pretty sure Ken Henry called the Opposition “amateurs” in his answer to the first Press Club question. Or at least those members accusing him of being a government stooge.
After taking time to explaining how small the gap is between Treasury’s 2% growth forecast, the IMF’s 1.8% and the RBA’s 1.6% (when calculated on the same parameters as Treasury’s) and the reasons for the variations, he quoted from an article by Ross Gittins:
then stopped talking and just stood there pokerfaced until, after a longish pause, telling the moderator he’d finished his answer.
Classic!!!!!
I am beginning to sound like a cracked record, another day wasted by the Liberal Party, running around like headless chooks does not an oppostion make.
Julie Bishop has become a joke, her one question today was greeted with “bet you did not write it”, she is politically dead – swinging in the breeze, waiting for someone to put her out of her misery.
Avuncular Joe was the last gasp today in QT – when is his next gig at the Comedy Club? He sure had the Govt. peeing themselves with laughter.
Anyone see Barnaby at the Henry Press club thing, red faced, tired and emotional maybe, he looked ill.
When Labor pick up 20 seats at the next Federal election maybe the Liberal Party will get its act together?
I’m concerned about poor Rupert. I had the telly on in the background and they showed him at some function for whatever reason. He just does not look happy.
Hmm with all those billions, wonder why? Far be it from me to give him advice, but maybe if News Corporation could improve its dividend yield from the lousy 1% its been paying over the last decade, to in line with other blue chips, institutions may not realise the poor value of its stock in real terms which will therefore prevent total capitulation of its share price.
Centre, maybe if Limited News Corporation could improve its products, i.e., retire the terminally deluded from their dead tree and other media, maybe their share price would improve? I, like many others, are heartily sick of the daily negative carping that emanates from the MSM.
Mayo, Ken Henry certainly had a go at the Opposition and Her Maj’s Loyal Leader of the Opposition and Member for Wentworth. It’s worth a visit to Peter Martin to read the whole speech.
Thanks HSO – I watched it but the last few question/answers were cut off. Ken Henry is one classy guy.
Actually, the more you see of the Opposition in action, the more the polls not moving, really, terribly much anywhere, but to cement Labor federally makes sense.
Frankly, their performance warrants these polling results.
Bernard Keane had a piece in Crikey today re so called ‘phonegate’. Clicked on to read comments – there were quite a few and all but 1 were along the lines of the Press Gallery are ‘up themselves’ and get over it. Quite funny really. Those journos refuse to acknowledge that the mob out here are right about Kev.
I agree with BB about La Stupenda as he calls her. I used to think Grattan was pretty good but round about Feb/March something must have happened with her because, even on RN with the clueless Fran Kelly, she has not been as evenhanded as she used to be. Is she worried about losing the gig on the ABC or did Kev & Co upset her about something?
Or is that the Age is supposed to be moving to the right now that it is under pressure.
HSO
While we’re being frank, I’m worried that with the Fibs current performance the polling is not deteriorating, which would be a more accurate measure of the opposition’s performance.
Just out of interest, can someone name the last intellectual policy debate carried out between parliamentary members of the two main parties?
BH – yes Ken Henry is indeed a cut above his political masters.
onimod
that is a good question.
‘Just out of interest, can someone name the last intellectual policy debate carried out between parliamentary members of the two main parties’
for mine you would have to reach back to the late 40’s interms of inter party debate,
in terms of intra party debate perhaps the mid to late 80’s for the fabs and the 40’s for the fibs.
onimod, let’s just wait a bit shall we? 55 vs. 45, and particularly if you look at Possum’s pollytrack series says a great deal, IMO. I think the people have taken a look at Her Maj’s Loyal Leader of the Opposition and Member for Wentworth, and the Party he leads, and have pretty much made up their minds for now. This polling is pretty much better than Labor did at the actual election. Mind boggling when you think about it.
HSO re 334, agree. re 337 disagree. PPM 62 to 22. Lightweight is getting lighter!
I have not read much of Grattan but I thought she was unbiased because Cossie asked her if she is still taking her medication.
Fibs current performance won’t affect their rusted on supporters, Ominod, so they will always get a certain proportion of the poll numbers.
At the moment tho the swingers are still going with Labor and Turnbull & Co’s ridiculous ravings are not going to change that yet.
Poor old Malcolm’s barrister act in Parliament is feeding his ego. ‘Look at me! Look at me!’ he says but all I see is a trumped up, dodgy merchant banker.
BTW, I was about to start screaming at that idiot Michael Brissenden on the 7.30 Report, and the undoubtedly more extended air time, Hockey and Turnbull got in his segment, when on comes Swan for a grilling by Kerry. Calmed down and watched the interview and came to the conclusion that while he may have some difficult moments in front of the camera, and why wouldn’t you have, when you’re trying to explain something that’s never happened before, and what the government proposes to do about is, he’s doing O.K. I’ve got a soft spot for Tanner, specifically as a communicator, however, as Kerry got more and more insistent about pushing Swan into defending going into deficit, if need be, I thought Swan handled it well. Certainly makes Mesmerelda look like a dill.
The other “between the lines” message I got from Henry’s speech today, is that while he understands he has to deal with governments of both persuasions, he’s rather pleased with his job at the moment, i.e., he gets to deal with a government that actually has a clue.
Lets be honest: The Libs believe someone’s been pressuring senior public servants, because thats precisely what they used to do up till last Nov.
Gary @ 318
I’m intrigued Gary that you say (and have said before a number of times) that you helped the Kirner Govt “out the door”. Especially for a Labor loyalist such as you.
What did you actually do to cause the downfall of a Government? Come on, don’t be modest.
I think Grattan, like a few commentators is undermined by the fact that she has to write something, and very often about nothing.
The model of filling column inches regardless is dying.
it’s the same catch 22 the whole MSM, TV radio and print, is stuck in – their ’success’ and revenue is measured by short term popularity, a model that is at it’s core is contradictory with long term stable revenue and success.
BH – it’s the unthinking rusted-ons on both sides that deliver us the pissweak bare minimum crap we get in parliament. It might be true, but it doesn’t mean it’s good/right.
Fair enough, Centre. I’d love to know what’s going on within the Lib. Party at the moment. Judith Troethe was on PM this evening speaking about having the terrorism laws reviewed. Some incredible tensions within the Libs. clearly exist.
I go that impression listening to Henry as well – absolutely loved his speech to his staff before the election campaign last year. Alan Ramsey reported it so it will be in his archive somewhere if you can find it. Costello & Howard hated it and I’m sure that is the reason for the deningration going on now with the Fibs. It is pay back time.
I loved the way he pointedly made comments today which were directed at ‘we know who’. His comments re the economy being talked down so much had to be aimed at Turnbull & Co.
Lindsay Tanner was spot on today in QT – he certainly cuts through but I think he is probably the only one who can keep the spending in check at this stage so his job is hugely important. I also think he won’t take any BS from his Cabinet mates if they want to spend like wounded bulls.
Swannie is not stupid and is obviously listening to Ken Henry. After hearing Henry today we can be confident that Swannie will be OK.
I don’t mind the Opposition asking questions to get information for a vote but the continual deningration and negativity about Kev & Co is very tiring.
Ominod – yeah I know the rusted-ons can be nauseating but, heck, you need them to round up the votes sometimes and to do all the hack work. I’m one of them but that doesn’t mean that I can’t say what I want to if I am unhappy with something that is being done. I make sure that I say it loudly.
And I think the ‘pissweak’ lot have been so bad (especially here in NSW) that it means better candidates are now being looked at and sought in many electorates.
The bloke we had in this area last time was a beauty and if he decides to run again he will be preselected and we will have even more incentive to make sure he gets up in 2010. We are not far off it.
325 Dario,
That is is … I couldn’t find a single US news source today that was even giving this story a sniff [ a nod to our WA Libs
]
The opposition need to get their collective heads out of the sand and take a check of the stories that people are really interested in …..
Julie, I heard that after Bush and Obama shook hands, Bush grabbed a hanky to clean his hand. Is that true?
Now come off it Winston not even you could be that thick. What do you think I did? When you want to get rid of a government waht does one do? Have a guess. If you’d read previous postings by me you’d know.
BH, if you’re in N.S.W. and have any influence, I ‘d suggest you wield it. There’s probably no one who’s got a good word to say for N.S.W. Labor, including the rusted ons.
No influence but only footslogger HSO. In NSW and I don’t have a good word to say about much that they are doing here. In fact they are frustrating and downright maddening. Altho I think Carmel Tebbutt could be quite good.
The Branch here is pretty good at standing up for what they see as useless and the words fly thick and fast but it is mostly for nought at the moment.
I have always been one who thought 10 years or so is enough for any Govt – especially State Govts. They can so easily get lost with developers, etc.
The last Liberal Govt. here was just as bad as this Labor one and it was heaven when they were tossed out. I don’t think Bob Carr lived up to his rhetoric and the rot started when he became bored a few years ago.
I’m hoping that Kev & Co have the nous to give us at least 10 good years.
I looked at Bernard Keanes crap today and cancelled my (free) Crikey subscription. Can read the MSM if I want tabloid crap!
Change your vote?
Centre,
It sounds like you’ve heard a garbled story from a meeting between Bush and Obama soon after BHO was elected to the Senate. It’s mentioned in Obama’s book “The Audacity of Hope”
After they’d shaken hands, GWB turned to an aide who squirted some hand sanitizer on the President’s hands, and Bush offered it to Obama, saying “Good stuff. Keeps you from getting colds.”
I suppose that people who shake lots of hands might be susceptible to germs, so that would be the objective justification for its use. It might suggest obsessiveness, but I don’t think there’s anything sinister in this tale.
352, no idea. If it helps any, I didn’t read that anywhere on the major US news sources sites that I haunt. What was your source for that information? Unless your source is reliable, I would discount the story as the stories with verifiable facts are reported with more than one source point.
ah, Centre, if what Peter says is correct (mind you, I’ve not ever heard this version either), this is “old” news and that would explain why I’ve not seen current references to this event in the news the last week or so …..
PF, I couldn’t really believe it when somebody told me. It does sound offensive. You have to wonder if that’s normal practice with some or only with Bush or only with Bush for Obama.
Still, maybe people should not shake hands or kiss for that reason!
Unless they look like Julie Collins or Palin of course
Is this a follow on from Bush handing Obama hand sanitizer when they met for the first time?
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/09/bush-obama-meeting-hard-feelings-hand-sanitier/
If people think the NSW Government is hopeless they should spare a thought for the hapless Liberal National Party opposition in Queensland.
This week they have adopted a couple of novel tactics.
Liberal versus National having a ding dong verbal clash over the price of a dinner.
Secondly, they have taken up using ”Little Britain” as the template for policy development; as explained in today’s hansard from the Queensland Parliament:
Ms JONES:
They cannot even agree with themselves these days. My question is to the minister for transport. Can the minister please explain to me and the people of Queensland what the Liberal National Party policy is on speed cameras? Is it clear that their policy supports the use of speed cameras to make our roads safer?
Mr MICKEL:
I will start by telling the House what our policy is. Our policy is to make sure that road safety is the No. 1 priority. Our policy is to make sure that fixed speed cameras that were introduced are there to make sure that no matter where people are driving if they are committing an offence there will be a punishment for them. Our policy is to make sure that if you are a hoon and you have been caught three times you lose your car. Our policy is one of consistency.
I have had a chance to examine the web site of the shadow minister for transport, the member for Maroochydore. Those members who have seen the program
Little Britain
will know of a character called Vicky Pollard. Vicky Pollard is one of those characters who says, ‘Yeah but no but no but yeah but.’ I had a look at the web site and there it is–’Hoon Watch’. So bad speeding is when you lower the Commodore and do a few wheelies around the place–which we oppose and apparently they do too. But if you looked on the web site in the last couple of days you will have seen, ‘Bligh government reaps speed camera windfall.’ So apparently it is bad speeding if you are in a lowered Commodore but it is okay if you are in the family sedan. What consistency is that? It is, ‘Yeah but no but yeah.’
Then the media release at paragraph 4 says, ‘Just having a camera ticking over doesn’t automatically mean the roads are safer’–so, ‘No.’ But then paragraph 6 says that the ‘opposition supported the use of speed cameras’–so, ‘Yeah.’ But let us see how we go then in paragraph 7, where it says that ‘it appears they are putting their hands in the pockets of motorists to help plug their budget black holes’–so, ‘No.’ But by paragraph 9 it says, ‘Speed cameras do have their place’–so, ‘Yeah.’ So it is, ‘Yeah but no but yeah but no but no but yeah but no but yeah.’
So if you want to look at the policy for the Liberal National Party do not bother going to the web site of the member for Maroochydore; just look up
Little Britain
. Vicky Pollard will give it to you. They do not have a policy; what they do have is a template from Vicky Pollard. The honourable member for Maroochydore, the shadow minister, used to be indecisive. Now we are not so sure!
Triton
“it seems to ACCEPTED fact that a leak of the conversation did occur…”
Accepted fact ? by whose definiton , who is deep throat , perhaps he does not even exit either PhoneGate is declassified now as termed PhoneyGate , which means th blow torch is now reversable …back onto th hoaxers alone where it belongs , because frankley voters neither believe that sort of ‘mud’ ninsense and nor would it ever affect there vote
Liberal voters and 00 ar going to hav to lift there game alot higher than PhoneyGate to stop ‘left’ people from chuckling at that absurbity , let alone be remotely worried about Rudds curent dominant politcal position
357 Winston – you’re a bloody genius son.
Does anybody know what powers the Senate has in regard to dragging up people before them to grill them on this “phonegate” BS? Can they force the PM, Mitchell, Rudd’s advisors and public servants to testify?
It is presently trendy for the MSM to simply slag off at the government no matter what it does or the issue. They are certainly not doing anything to help this country in a time of grave economic risk. They seem to want to copy each other.
None of it is to do with real journalism. Would be sad if Crikey kept going down that path of tabloid negative journalism as well. I know it seems oh so cool to be cynical and to treat the government with contempt, it shows how smart and clever you are because you too can slag the govt for no particular reason other than you can.
We have enough carping jaundice journalism wanting to criticise Rudd and Labor because….well hard to know really… he is not Liberal or not Labor enough, or simply they think it looks good. I think journalists think it makes them look like journalist if they run down the government. Yes, if Crikey does that then they would be an on-line version of Murdoch and thus a niche is still left for honesty non partisan genuine analytical journalism. Not to mention a niche for Huffington Post type site for Australia. Whoever gets that going first will corner a large section of the on-line political readership.
Harry “Snapper” Organs @ 344
The other “between the lines” message I got from Henry’s speech today, is that while he understands he has to deal with governments of both persuasions, he’s rather pleased with his job at the moment, i.e., he gets to deal with a government that actually has a clue.
Unfortunately, I spend most of today getting the run round over a warranty dispute so missed many of Henry’s responses to questions (so thanks for the heads up re the transcript at Peter Martin’s site). But I did hear him say that Treasury was fully consulted about (and in agreement with) the $6+ billion car industry package and got the distinct impression that he thought this made a nice change from the way it was under the previous regime, where we know often department heads first heard about new/changed policy at the press conference announcing it, $10 million was cheerfully handed over to charlatans against departmental advice at least once, and even a $10 billion ‘policy’ was cooked up on the back of an envelope at the tail end of a long boozy lunch.
My apologies Gary.
When you wrote “I helped them out the door and helped Kennett to get in by a very big margin if I remember correctly” I sort of assumed there was a little more to it than that. My mistake.
I think I owe you an apology too Winston. I must admit I thought you were just “having a go”.
I actually voted Liberal for the first time that election and regretted for the next 7 years.
And if Crikey and others want to get a real clue how observing that both Rudd and Obama got elected on the back of being non-negative and being positive and that the smearers got a pasting.
Might be a clue there that the public is sick of this carping, smearing, over dramatising of trivia and generally cynical approach to politics, politicians and government. Many of them are all behaving like pale versions of Rove. Now I find don’t bother with the ABC, Channel 9 never visited, or Murdoch papers and am reluctant to read Crikey because sometimes they go murdoch and really I am sick and tired of this stuff.
Would be nice to see so positive supportive journalism for a change somewhere. And to see some media adopt that approach for a change.
Tanner is good … “spivs and shonks and sharks” … LOL
I see Tanner more in the Keating style, which could put some voters off – while Swan is the nerdy treasurer who is less likely to put voters offside. Not quite the good cop bad cop routine, but it allows Tanner to deliver some `interesting’ lines at the expense of the opposition, while Swan can take the serious treasurer role.
“Does anybody know what powers the Senate has in regard to dragging up people before them to grill them on this “phoneYgate” BS?”
That would be politcal foolishness , giv th hoazx more credibility….and be guaranteed in advance of finding out zero
“I actually voted Liberal for the first time that election ”
no comment
Tanner gets to deliver the “interesting” lines because he’s got the intelligence and wit to carry it off. Not sure he’s in the Keating league but he gets noticed because it’s a pretty bland front bench – with a few obvious exceptions.
Apart from the quality of the delivery, Tanner has a good point. The coalition features an ex merchant banker as leader, and an ex lawyer to merchant banks as shadow minister for foreign affairs. They are the sort of people who created the current mess, and have no idea how to fix it.
BTW, as shadow minister for foreign affairs, why does Coonan have anything to do with attacking treasury officials anyway?
Well, she hasn’t got a clue in her own portfolio…
While on Tanner, hilarious exchange between Libby Price (I think) on ABC radio 774 and a caller this morning. Caller was bagging Robb over his comments on Ken Henry and referred to Robb’s comments blaming Muslims for the Lindsay election stunt. Price said “Do you mean Lindsay Tanner?”. She really should know better.
Should hand back her credentials (if she ever had any) for not knowing that. Utterly pathetic.
The only reason the bright and able Tanner wasn’t made treasurer by Rudd – and one who would be able to carry the role off whereas Swan never will – is that he is in the wrong faction. Apart from Swan, look at the other types with much in common with the old DLP – the boundless talents of sparkling performers like for example S Conroy, J Fitzgibbon and J Ludwig. The inevitable result of the modern Labor faction ’system’ is that deadheads like them are always likely to occupy key positions over the few genuinely bright minds who stay in the party knowing they are unlikely to be rewarded for their ability. People like Tanner are masochists, and the party doesn’t deserve them. If things stay the same the Federal party’s front bench will end up looking like the one in NSW, totally bereft of intelligence, wit or charm – more like a toilet seat at Central Station on a Friday night.
“I see Tanner more in the Keating style, which could put some voters off ”
see abit of ex finance Minister Senator Peter Walsh , knowledgeable and to point without frills or desire for likeability A treasurer needs a diferent politcal ‘face’ and Swan has econamic attributes , but behind scenes particularly Tanner is a great plus
So even if Tanner had numbers power , i feel he is in th right portfolio , so j/v we disagree as usual
“an ex merchant banker as leader, and an ex lawyer to merchant banks as shadow “minister for foreign affairs. They are the sort of people who created the current mess.., ”
and were happy to exploit th lack of regulation , rules and tax/ legal loopholes….so its dificult for them to understand how a market should run
366 Gary, it looks like this will be the shortest Senate Inquiry in History according to page 59 and 60 of this.
[It is not determined whether the Houses can delegate their power to conduct inquiries to a person other than their own members, although there are some old precedents in Britain for such a delegation (see also under Preparation and publication of documents, above; see also Chapter 20, Relations with the Judiciary, under The second Senate committee).
The power may be confined to inquiries into subjects in respect of which the Commonwealth Parliament has the power to legislate.
There is judicial authority for the proposition that the Chapter 2 Parliamentary Privilege Commonwealth and its agencies may not compel the giving of evidence and the production of documents except in respect of subjects within the Commonwealth’s legislative competence
(Attorney-General for the Commonwealth v Colonial Sugar Refinery Co Ltd 1912 15 CLR 182, 1913 17 CLR 644; Lockwood v the Commonwealth 1954 90 CLR 177 at 182-3), and, if the matter were litigated, the High Court might well hold that this limitation applies to the inquiry powers of Senate committees. The United States Supreme Court so held in relation to the Congress (see Quinn v US 1955 349 US 155). This would not mean that an inquiry would have to be linked with any particular legislation (cf Eastland v US Servicemen’s Fund 1975 421 US
491).
Although the question has not been adjudicated, there is probably an implicit limitation on the power of the Houses to summon witnesses in relation to members of the other House or of a house of a state or territory legislature.
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/pubs/odgers/pdf/chap02.pdf
You really have to wonder how much intelligence there is left in the Liberal party these days. While the whole financial system is going to hell in a hand basket. and nearly everyone in the world is mocking George Bush for his downright stupidity, these geniuses (or is that genii) think they can gain political mileage with a senate inquiry over leaked claims that he didn’t know what the G20 is. Most people would be thinking that’s just what we would expect of him.
Meanwhile it’s the government which is seen to be dealing with the big issues that really matter, while the opposition is just looking more and more irrelevant. . . . . . .
It won’t be the shortest inquiry in history. The inquiry into the NT Intervention bills was 3 days last year. I’d imagine it’d be the shortest select committee though.
I’d also question the value of any inquiry. It’s fairly obvious what’s happened in this situation so I doubt an inquiry would shed much light.
Darn, the inquiry was suggested by the political mastermind of Steve Fielding, rather than the Opposition. I don’t see how the Greens would support the inquiry and Xenophon has already indicated it is doubtful that he would so I don’t think it’s going to happen in any case.
On your assertion that the government ’seems to be dealing with the big issues that matter’… that’s a lame excuse to fob off answering questions about government accountability. The government’s handling of this whole episode stinks but it’s well and truly time to move on. It’s obvious they leaked the story so there’s nothing else that can be gained from dwelling on it.
Socrates @ 375
“BTW, as shadow minister for foreign affairs, why does Coonan have anything to do with attacking treasury officials anyway?”
Coonan has Shadow responsibility for the Treasurer in the Senate, similar to how Conroy is Minister representing the Treasurer in the Senate.
Gary Bruce @ 370
Yes, the Senate can compel witnesses to appear before its committees, or even the chamber itself for questioning (the last time this happened being in regard to the Loans Affair in 1975). Committees can also compel witnesses to give answers. If the witnesses fail to appear or give evidence the Senate can determine that it should sanction the witnesses, by fine or sentence. This is rare, though and has only happened on one or two occasions (I think). The according extract from Senate Practice (Odgers) reads:
“There are no explicit legal limitations to these powers, except that a person punished for a contempt may seek judicial review of the penalty on the basis that a refusal to attend, produce documents or give evidence did not amount to an obstruction of the Senate (see Chapter 2, Parliamentary Privilege), but such an application would be unlikely to succeed. ”
I also don’t think they’ve called private individuals before (e.g. a journalist) and they can’t call members of the House (including House Ministers) or state parliaments.
Itep
Isn’t there, or wasn’t there, a lock-up in the basement of Parliament House for sentences?
Right at the time Rudd is proceeding overseas for a pivotal meeting on the world economy, the Opposition is trying to white ant our prospects of participating and exercising influence at that meeting. If anyone ever needed an example of reckless vandalism of our country’s potential well-being, this is it.
They would of course say that Rudd has already done the damage himself, but is this really true?
The facts that came out about the phone call were unremarkable – the phone call happened, it was about the G20 meeting, it was between Rudd and Bush – except for one thing, the “What’s the G20?” question, allegedly eminating from Bush. Both sides have denied this ever happened, and it seems likely that is true, as the call itself was about the G20. So all we have is a report of a phone call between two world leaders on an important matter, important to both countries and to the world.
The nub of the Opposition’s attack is therefore, “Who made up the joke about Bush not knowing what the G20 was?”. It’s not a matter of who improperly revealed secret, or confidential deatils about a secret conversation. It’s a matter of who showed disrespect to Bush, a lame-duck leader who couldn’t be less popular if he went out and bit off a puppy’s head on live television.
No matter who leaked, or more likely joked about Bush, the Opposition is prepared to diss our chances of being a player at the G20 meeting by warning other leaders not to trust Rudd. This is after their own leader, about a year and a bit ago stated that the terrorists would be praying – praying – for an Obama-Democrat victory.
The media has latched onto this in a kind of mad, irrelevant feeding frenzy. They are all crying crocodile tears about what was alleged to have happened, without care as to the consequences. It’s a mad feeding frenzy, a free-for-all… over a joke, or what may have been a joke.
The ABC seems to be the one promoting this story’s longevity the most. Whether this is because their “balance” policy obliges them to report anything the Opposition says – just because they’ve said it – or whether they are biased themselves doesn’t matter. It’s a disgrace that “refuses to deny” stories are out there doing damage. If Rudd said, “It wasn’t me,” then the next question would be “Well, who was it?”. If he said he didn’t know then we’d be reading about his office being out of control (interesting, as he’s supposed to be a “control freak”) and be subjected to even more calls for inquiries. If he said he knew but wasn’t saying, then we’d have a “cover-up” scandal. It’s lose-lose for Rudd. Best to stay mum and ride it out, let the story die.
And let the Opposition die, too. The more they run this wretched line, this reckless ruination, the worse they look in the public’s minds.
Kenneth Davidson joins the swelling ranks of those who “get it”:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/off-on-a-high-horse-instead-of-a-high-road-20081112-5o0f.html
Andrew Robb is getting slaughtered.
Apparently Ken Henry pointing out that it would have been better if he hadn’t been accused of fudging the figures is an example of “Government McCarthy-ism”
Andrew Robb should resign and go to the back bench of the opposition and join TIP.
ROFL FIELDING YOU LEGEND.
“We don’t want the media to reveal their sources, what we want is the leak!!!!”
Source = leak, idiot.
“Why would anyone not support an inquiry? This is absurd”.
He keeps saying he wants to “Keep the bastards honest”. I hope FF dies like the Dems.
Apparently ABC is getting emails from viewers saying they don’t care about this “leak” nonsense. NO ONE CARES.
Ron @ 364, it’s my impression that a leak is accepted fact, but Rudd is using the false parts to argue that it’s not a leak if it’s not true.
Someone suggested earlier that a refusal to deny cannot necessarily be taken as an admission, but I can’t see any plausible reason for Rudd not to deny it if it’s complete nonsense. He’s giving the impression that:
a) He or his office did leak the conversion, and
b) He can’t deny it because someone else (presumably at The Australian) knows and would blow the whistle if he did
In all, continually refusing to deny it makes him look bad, and that’s pretty stupid if it’s not true.
BB@387
That’s my take on it as well.
If the Bush “what’s the G20?” comment didn’t occur, then allowing the rest of the conversation to be reported is hardly problematic.
And if the reporting of the apparently false Bush comments aren’t having any bearing on the Aus-US, (or any other nation for that matter) then what’s the need for an inquiry or any apology? Move along folks- nothing to see here …
Don’t worry Triton it will all have a quick death now that the Greens have torpedoed the inquiry. You won’t have to worry about it any more.
Leak or no leak the fact is it has and will do bugger all damage to anything.
The Greens won’t support the Fielding witch hunt so forget about it – it’s a dead issue i.e., D-E-A-D as in parrot.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/13/2418295.htm
ABC News Online has a contact page where you may submit concerns about bias, lack of objectivity etc. I would urge all PBludgers to take advantage of this facility to make their complaints known.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/contact/feedback.htm
While dropping links, PBludgers might like to check Mr Rudd’s page. You can contact him here, plus view videos, get on his mailing list etc.
http://kevinpm.com.au/
It’s interesting to note that the opposition aren’t sold on the senate witch hunt either as they are concerned that journalists might get called and questioned. Hmm, can’t believe that they have some in principle belief in the right of journalists to protect their sources – more likely a case that the nice back scratching arrangement between the OO and the liberal party might be unraveled in broad daylight.
SNAP.
Socrates # 375!!
Dare I become a political trend setter but I suspect Tanner has been reading from my post for I wrote here on PB several weeks ago that Malcolm Turnbull’s biggest weakness could turn out to be that he is a Banker! I’m cool with Tanner usaing my lines if only he would follow my policy ideas hehehe!
I don’t think stating the bleeding obvious counts, hombre.
“Leak or no leak the fact is it has and will do bugger all damage to anything.”
Apart from the Government’s promise to bring in a new era of transparency and accountability.
Oh please
Only in Queensland!
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24644885-952,00.html
Anna Bligh should call an election.
Nah, if she waits till late next year, these idiots in the “Pineapple Party” will continue to self destruct and she should go close to getting polling figures in line with the current federal ones.
if you want to have a squiz at the ABC blog on phonegate and Fielding, its overwhelmingly turning the whole matter into a miniscule nothing, i think theres only two blogs in all of them thats supportive of the coalition’s witch hunt.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2008/11/13/2418295.htm
How does Fielding say it affects families?
Won’t somebody think of the children???
403 – Dario, couldn’t put it better myself.
Sitting here watching this whole debate about who predicts what, why and how is a reminder to voterland that some pollies are good for port and some are good for lipstick
Turnbull has a l o n g way to go to catch up with the popularity of PM Kevin Rudd.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/technology/web/twitter-turmoil-crashes-rudd-website/2008/11/13/1226318798926.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
“Apart from the Government’s promise to bring in a new era of transparency and accountability.”
itep – the governments promise to bring in a new era of transparency and accountability was referring to the government, not morally bankrupt and dishonest oppositions and pathetic lnp hacks masquerading as journalists behind the dodgy facade of the OO.
Tom.
ltep, the evidence shows that the government has tried to introduce more transparency and accountability – with the opposition attempting to stymie all the measures in the senate.
There is no comparison between this government and the previous one on this front.
My view about this all, is that hte media expect all new governments to struggle and have plenty of cokups and scandals to deal with in the first 18 months or so. Compare the first term of the Hawke and Howard governments to the incumbent. This governement has seen remarkably few cock-ups and no real scandals. Hence this ridiculous phone beat up becomes a huge affair with the pundits.
The rest of Australia doesn’t even notice.
You’re not wrong
scorpio @404
Imagine that happening in the days of Sir Joh. A tanked up Russ Hinze barging down the pavement, knocking over small trees and fruit carts! Don Lane scampering behind him snatching ice-creams off small children and hurling them into the gutter.
Another Qld Nat who would be right at home with the Conservative faction of the GOP.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/13/2418568.htm
Inner Westie @ 416,
It looks as though Stevens is a serial offender and doesn’t like sharing the bill if the other person has more expensive tastes. Doesn’t seem to like his colleagues much either. Seems pretty typical of the Coalition.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/13/2418536.htm
I think he was like that all the time, he owned a number of pubs.
QT only one question old and Julia already taking Malcolm to the cleaners
…..
Go Julia cut him to pieces
#420
Yes, a fresh, imaginative approach from Julia. Good stuff.
Care to share folks?
#423
She reminded the House of the recent phone call between Rudd and Obama, then asked members opposite to imagine the call between Howard and Obama (had Howard won the election), after quoting the entire text of what Howard had said about Obama, terrorism and Al Quaeda etc.
Dario,
Julia ripping into Malcolm about why the @#*($&*(#&$*(#&$*(# the Liberal party doesn’t apologize to Obama about the reckless comment JH made about him when JH was PM
….. that wasn’t all of it, but the best part of it imho 
scorpio @418
The old “mud crap and champagne on a split bill” trick! I reckon Stevens would have been planning his getaway from the moment the posh nosh was served.
(This story has Queensland political vaudeville written all over it …)
The managers of Russ’ pubs could never understand why, with good margins and high turnover, they always seemed to be in the red … until they spotted the big fella slurping away in the corner!
The best defense is a good offense
ie attack
Lindsay Tanner reminding all of the House that John Howard didn’t request money through formal channels before commiting to the Iraq war
……
427,428;
you can bet that Malcolm won’t ask any more phonegate questions today
allbull trying to get govt to pass laws re Govt G/- for banks so that fibs can block it in the senate. Tanner says this is within existing exec govt power.
allbull has had several cracks at this so far
fibs bi-partisan approach at work. Not.
Stevens is a cheap-scape 1st class too.
http://news.theage.com.au/national/qld-mp-denies-doing-a-runner-20081113-65wd.html
Bonhomie, eh. How to win friends and influence people 101. Don’t think there are too many friends among this lot.
Another example of why Rudd is so popular.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24645758-12377,00.html
Big Bob
Yeah few cock ups and scandles, apart from
Belinda Neal
Bank Guarantee causing market to crash 5%
Getting Neal Henry to take the fall on RBA governors concern over bank guarantee fiasco
Snobbing our 2nd biggest trade partner by not visiting Japen in first tour
Upsetting chinese premier by raising human rights issue before the olympics
and it is only the first year, but he is definitely doing better than the NSW ALP Government …. so far
Dovif
you are on crack if you think any of what you just mentioned is going to have traction with the electorate