The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.
Other news:
• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.
• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.
• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.
• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.
638 Comments
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A repost from the old thread:
When you need to be compared to Nelson to look good, you know things aren’t going well.
No mention of satisfaction rating yet.
poor Malcolm, after all of his hard work bagging Rudd his pref PP has gone down, Rudd62—Turnbull22
So as Turnbull’s PPM rating sneaks towards the teens, and the 2PP stuck around where it was when Nelson moved on, is ANYONE in the media going to admit that the Turnbull exercise has not been the outstanding success that they billed it as??
So much for “Phonegate”
So Rudd continues his polling streak.
Exactly who thinks Rudd is a one-term wonder? Anyone that we take seriously?
I’m going to go way out on a limb and say, no.
So this time they aren’t using the good ol’ “Approval rating” tactic to make Turnbull look good.
Malcom Turnbull’s first PPM was 24. A “bounce” from Nelson’s 16. Now he’s back to 22. I wonder if it’ll crash through 20.
This is a well deserved result for Rudd. Malcom’s scare campaign has come back to bite him.
Grog, I’m beginning to think most voters would just wish Malcolm would just slope off somewhere – anywhere.
I’m sure Turnbull will take the Libs to the next election and lose it by more than Howard unless they change leaders. The electorate has made it’s mind up about Turnbull and they don’t like what they see. When is Cossie going to get the tap on the shoulder?
The polls seem to support your view.
Regarding the car industry package, I am conditionally pleased, depending on the conditions attached. There is no reason we can’t have a competitive industry here – our market is large enough (one million cars a year) to support production of advanced models. We used to make over 250,000 cars a year, which is larger than Toyota’s world wide production of Prius, (from several different plants). The key is to force the foreign owned manufacturers to invest. The Howard government package failed dismally in this regard – $6 billion wasted on nothing more than regigging assembly lines for the next models of Magna, Falcon and Commodore.
7. Oz, I think they compared MT’s satisfaction rating to Nelsons and called that a bounce. Will be intersting to see what his rating still is. Do LNP supporters stil think he’s doing a great job now that the comparison with Nelson is wearing off?
There is another way to spin this- I think Ive finally cracked the Da Milncy Code
that over 62% of voters think turnbull is doing a grand job and should stay exactly where he is
A lowly and minor proportion, a mere 22% want him to move on.
Talcums our man!
While many in the media are showing clouded judgement due to a ‘man crush’ on Turnbull, the wider electorate are not so easily seduced.
And to inovate.
Tanner on LL – as good as ever.
I’m actually not suggesting that Turnbull is finished, it just irks me the way the media treated his early poll numbers as the second-coming. Nelson was being beaten up over PPM in the teens, and Turnbull is heading that way.
yeah, the “Approval/Satisfaction” rating seems to have gone MIA … maybe Turnbull’s Approval/Satisfaction rating nose dived
This must be longest honeymoon (begun December 2006, still going strong) in the history of matrimony.
Gusface, some nice Colbert type logic there.
Just ONE article on Turnbull’s failure….PLEASE
Poor wife must be sore as.
I know that State issues don’t normally influence Federal Eleections, but wouldn’t the postpondment of the Northern Line would harm the Liberal vote ?
I’ve gotta go to bed now. Got a really new State gov’t funded initiative to get going in the am. We’ll actually make some difference to people’s lives. Whoo hoo, real money that makes real difference. Night PBers and William
The way things are going the MSM/Libs will have to start hoping for the 7 year itch
Last 3 Newspolls; PPM 54/26 (29% lead), 59/25 (34% lead), 62/22 (40%) lead
Come on MSM, I’m writing it for you!!!!
grog
I feel the fibs pain, and thought some gentle words of encouragement would help.
One must do what one can in these very testing times.
I think the honeymoon is over, but not Rudd’s.
Lol@ Kitty Flanagan “I see you’ve all come dressed as Julie Bishop” on the photo of Rudd with the Trick or Treaters
Apparently we missed a Tasmanian poll:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/10/2415739.htm
Not much detail.
Bartlett PPM on 37, Libs 29 and Greens 15.
So about 45% of those polled would put the coalition above Labor on two-party terms, yet only 22% of those polled support Turnbull?
He’s not even able to carry his own base along with him, let alone the middle ground.
Where’s GP and his comments when you need him? You know, the comments that on the outside look defiant and righteous but on the inside look scared and worried that the Libs are in the electoral wilderness for the next decade?
With the polls showing that Turnbull is on the nose, and there being no-one in the Federal Parliament on the Liberal side who remotely looks like leadership material, isn’t it time that some of the Federal Lib members in the “safer’” seats fell on their swords to make way for new blood?
I’m thinking of proven dudds like Turnbull, Hockey, Bishop and Nelson , not to mention Abbot and Costello
Imagine the reinvigoration of the Party if they replaced those underachievers with dynamic, successful Liberals from the States, those with recent track records, past and present tyros from my own State for example, Like Buswell, Keirath, Rob Johnston, Omodei and Barnett.
Those holding state seats could vacate them without fear of any being gained by Labor in byelections, and they would impart a previously only dreamed about wealth of talent into the Federal Party.
Those of you insiders, like Glen, GP et al, use your influence for the good of the Party before all is lost.
Ok so I found EMRS’ last poll:
http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/State%20Voting%20Intentions%20August%202008%20Report.pdf
Libs on 30. So a 4-point drop on that is 26. Dunno what Labor’s is.
26 Lib vs. 18 Greens. A bit unnerving.
Or Deidre Wilmott
Fulvio, Fulvio, Fulvio
Buswell? What role exactly do you see him playing? Minister for Womens Rights perhaps?
I don’t feel in the least bit unnerved.
Treasurer. He’s doing a bang-up job in WA.
Elf – Buswell would be well suited as Minister for Trade.
Oz, he is not doing a bad job but he has only been doing it for a few weeks. A bit early to judge maybe?
Yes, thankyou to you all. My comment 35 was a little tongue in cheek for anyone that knows the controversy surroung Troy before the election.
surroung = surrounding
So was mine.
What’s that about Buswell and a sarong, Elf?
I was actually being sarcastic. I think bob was as well. Buswell’s controversy is a regular source of mirth on PB.
Of course, there’s absolutely nothing funny about sexual harassment.
Australia would be better off having Labor and The Greens as the two major parties. We don’t need any party more conservative than Labor.
Fulvio
It is well known quokka’s wear sarongs
Ta Bob, its that time of the month.
Thanks OZ. I suppose sarcasm is really hard to see without facial or vocal expression to go with it eh? From now on I will just automatically assume everything you say is sarcasm until you tell me otherwise. Does that sound reasonable?
One thing in the Tasmanian state poll pdf is that Nick McKim`s preferred premier rating is higher that of Peg Put.
What has the former Greens leader got to do with it Tom?
Or is it the best thing you can raise in this thread? I know 55-45 and 62-22 must be pretty devastating to you…
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