The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.
Other news:
• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.
• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.
• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.
• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.
638 Comments
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Are they still going on about this cheap point scoring “what Dubya said” non issue?
Where is their apology to President Obama?
HYPOCRITES!
Tom,
but rudds some country bumpkin who sneakily fooled the electorate into putting the fabs in power.Why the fact he can use the phone itself is an achievement for such as he
Why the fact that some fib substantiated it by saying it happened is enough for me,goddammit..I knows when to dips me hat and tug me forelock.
Why oh why cant these ‘barbarians’ be turfed out and the natural order be resumed.
The good old days when nobody questioned anything cos no-one was allowed to.When we could believe each and every word that sprang from the fount of all knowledge.When the OO pronouncements were like epistles delivered to us mere underlings and helped make us warm against a cold dark world.
It all makes perfect sense seen in this light.
ie The fibs can do no wrong,tell no lies and are our (the electorate that is) betters.
Actually I thought Smith was better than usual in the defence of the motion.
Turnbull has gone into deep Churchillian mode (he must have read Annabel Crabbe this morning, and struggled to get his head through the parliament doors…).
Obviously someone in the PMO leaked the convo, the G20 bit is the key bit though – and that I doubt very much was the result of a leak.
I don’t think it’ll matter because it’s Bush, he’s on the way out, and it smacks of pretty loose journalism. The assumption that other leaders will worry would be right if this wass the only conversation Rudd had had with any leader. ie this would be all they had to go on. Obviously he has talked to others and this doesn’t seemed to have stopped them.
Costello blabbed about a convo with Greenspan that caused the markets to dip. It was poor form, but he seemed to survive ok; so did Australia’s reputation…
bizarre comment today by Bolt:
I guess he thinks The Oz has been kind to Rudd thus far.
I thought Rudd not calling MT “the Leader of the Opposition” was a bit poor form. A bit of silly needling on his part. Though at least the Govt does thank the oppposition members for their quesitons – my recollection is that Howard and Co only did that for DDs
Another NSW minister sacked.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rees-dumps-stewart/2008/11/11/1226318638356.html
Another reason I’m glad I don’t live in NSW!
NSW is a joke. Rees is a joke, O’Pharrell is a joke, the Labor and Liberal Parties are a joke, THE WHOLE DAMN SYSTEM is a joke.
Can we do a reverse ACT and give up self-government? It only really worked for a short period in the 30’s.
EMRS poll thread up.
Let’s sell what remains of the state to Frank Lowy so that he can complete its conversion (unhindered) into a giant tawdry shopping complex!
(And I live in Emerald!)
Bolt is still in fairy denial land I see, where the OO is higher than government and everything revoloves around it. It is the Government’s responsibility to feed and keep the OO happy it seems, the same paper that has been trying hard from the beginning to sink Rudd and promote Labor.
So what is the threat? The OO will stop the charade and just go feral FoXNews like it is so much desires. Or is the implication that the paper is in fact dishonest and will thus abuse its position by attacking the government in ‘revenge’ at some later date? That seems to be what is implied.
You can bet 5 seconds after Murdoch karks it the media laws will be changed. In fact if at anytime Labor looks like it wont win an election and it has the numbers in the Senate expect a sudden rush of laws that smash up Murdoch’s Australian empire.
Promote Liberals.
Labour on the come-back trail in Britain.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24635722-2703,00.html
The yanks had a close escape on November 4th. Sara Palin believes God is going to show her the way to the White House but only if she can find the door. Otherwise she is just going to have to break through, with his permission of course. WOW!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24634911-2703,00.html
Being just one heart-beat away from President, Rudd would have had some strange phone calls with her.
Frank @ 193,
You wonder if they have a computer program that goes and searches this stuff out or something
…….
If she didn’t know Africa was a continent, god knows what geographic misunderstandings she has of Australia!
And you’d think god’d be courteous enough to provide Palin with an open door she didn’t have to “plow through” … (and one that didn’t deliver her directly into the claws of The Beast) …
Centre @ 201,
President-elect until mid January.
( I know, I wish it would happen sooner but we’re not so lucky )
You’re assuming she would trust him
Australia is a small island in the heart of Europe.
cuppa, bite your tongue
Yes, but what about Unaustralia? (The exile island for Howard’s pinkos.)
Australia is a state of mind
Man … (like surfing) …
Nah, our public transport is too crap.
Has anyone considered that the Australian report of the conversation between Rudd and Shrub was entirely true and factually reported?
Rudd cannot refute the Yanks denial because it would cause an international “incedent”. The head honcho from the Oz cannot say “hey its all true, I heard it on speakerphone”.
Does anyone seriously doubt that Shrub has any clue about the G20 or anything else?
I think mitchell has been told to shut up by murdoch.
rudd has to dump mitchell.
All politicians need the following tattooed on their hands – ” The media are never
my friend. I must not get into the cage with the animals.”
Why they can’t work that out is beyond me.
Sometimes, although he is stupid, I could believe Bush saying ‘What’s the G20?’, but be joking about it – he has the ability to take the piss out of himself. How does anyone then explain ‘but is was just a joke’ – when everyone is trying to be so serious about the leak.
As usual the Libs wasted another QT. They really need a reality check. They have zero credibility on so many issues.
So their only salvation is in developing policies, what happened to Ms Bishop’s policy review? Or do they think they can “do a Beazley” and win the next election without policies?
The only policy they had, petrol excise reduced by 5c, has been scrapped.
Chris Uhllman, why do you keep trying?
He’s obviously waiting for a job offer from The Australian.
ffs, of course George Bush is aware of and indeed understands the G20
The man may be a fool, but he isn’t an idiot (there’s a difference)
All the rest is bunkum.. who knows what,why,where or whom was said… but I refuse to accept that the Pres of the USA(8 years) hasn’t heard of the G20
I acknowledge others have commented on this, and Possum makes the point, but surely the story here is that the polls are almost static? I find that remarkable, given the rubbish being peddled as political news these days. Consistent samples of the population are saying repeatedly, yep, we’re with the guy from Queensland and his mob.
One of the things so fundamentally wrong headed about the attacks on Rudd’s credibility re: “the phone call”, is the trust differential between Rudd and Turnbull. I think it was Thomas Paine who referred to it earlier, and I have as well. The public trust Rudd more than they do Turnbull. Who’re you goin’ to call? Kevin from Queensland who’s here to help, or the ego from the North Shore?
I cannot believe that a telephone call is the most important thing in Australian politics at the moment.
The US economy is in recession, the UK is about to enter one and Australian economic growth predictions have been downgraded. There is a new head of state in the US and a new PM in NZ.
And yet – the most important thing in Australia is one lousy phone call. What a joke!!!
What happened to AC Nielsen?
I just had a rather mischievous thought just as I sent the last comment. Rudd and Mitchell know each other. Rudd is god father to one of Mitchell’s children. They must share something…perhaps a sense of humour? Mitchell is certainly in the next room when Rudd takes the call. The call is on speaker phone. Rudd gets off the phone and rejoins the dinner guests who all start joking about the dill in the White House. Mitchell thinks it a great gag to get Franklin to write the story as if it’s a serious version of events.
Think about it. The Opposition go into an over the top lather, with calls for AFP investigations, enquiries, and hopefully no one ever talking to Rudd on the international stage ever again. But, the O.O. goes quiet and Obama cheerfully returns Rudd’s congratulations phone call, and they just have a bit of a chat.
Meanwhile, Rudd and Mitchell are laughing themselves silly. And when I think about that possible scenario, so am I.
Rudd did declare he would play with certain people’s minds, if you recall.
Oz, like you I was expecting the AC Neilsen, as himself indoors was polled not long ago.
Only to the Malcom and the libs is it of any importance, I agree with HSO, Rudd and Mitchell are laughing themselves silly.
And why bring Malcolm in on the joke, leave him focused on the phone call whilst the govt concentrates on the serious stuff.
Maybe PB’s could help keep the issue alive by suggesting different scenarios, like Brian Burke was in the room when Rudd was on the phone and so was a stripper!
I think Turnbull has got this one wrong. Most Aussies think George W is an idiot and couldn’t care less if Rudd was taking the piss out of him. If Rudd did it that is. If he didn’t, there’s no story. It just makes Turnbull look desperate and petty.
It’s time the media put up or shut up. An unnamed source has been contradicted by our PM and the US President.
For this not being an issue at all you people do like to talk about it.
]Why oh why cant these ‘barbarians’ be turfed out and the natural order be resumed.]
“Barbarians” (and also “oafs”, in the same sentence) is the word Pies used in a recent column on “Phonegate”. Are you giving yourself away Gusface #202?
Brissenden, he of the unblinking eyes (do you have to use drops to treat that?) was STILL on about Phonegate.
What a waste of precious air time.
It’s clear that Chris Mirchell is in this right up to his neck. It’s also clear why the OO has gone quiet (see last sentence). The connection is far too obvious to put to one side: [i]the OO is its own leak[/i]. It could hardly wrtie anything about who the leaker is without getting caught up in such a vortex of circle-jerking as to make Turnbull’s pompous performance today seem like sober common sense.
Meanwhile, did anyone notice a certain – shall we say – “lack of vigour” in the OO’s esponse to their “exclusive” Newspoll today? Methinks Shanahan is just going through the motions.
Back to those little pieces of paper and the Ouji board, Dennis….
But it is an issue LTEP, Malcolm should keep on pushing it, demanding an answer, it is a matter of grave concern to all Australians.
Under these circumstances the “unnamed source” will never be found. If it was a pro labor source the leak woldn’t have happened. If it was a pro-conservative source it risks either embarrassing Bush (who has denied it) if on Bush’s staff or being vulnerable to legal action if on Rudd’s staff. The final possibility is the source doesn’t exist and was just made up by an unscrupulous media hack. Where else could the “information” have come from? It doesn’t add up.
Who knows, if he pushes long enough he may get his PPM down to Nelson’s record
BB
Interesting isn’t it, that we no longer get the detailed break-up of survey questions from Newspoll. I wonder who teh voters rate teh best person to handle the economy now? I find it hard to believe Newspoll have stopped asking – consistency of whole survey length and wording is important for longitudinal tracking of survey results. I suspect we’ll never be told though.
I think rudd is brilliant in handling ‘phonegate.’ He doesn’t kill it completely off, leading a fool like Turdbull to keep on pushing the issue like today in QT.
Meanwhile, Joe Blow is worried about losing his job and his house. He hears Turdbull going on about phonegate and thinks ‘wanker!’ Meanwhile the govt announces stuff like the support for the car makers, the $10.4Bn spend, infrastructure etc and hopes that will save his job and thinks Rudd is OK. The polls not moving just by themselves!
Rudd did something similar in the election campaign. Howard, behind in the polls and not much time left to change anything, challenges Rudd to name Swan as his Treasurer. Rudd stretches this out for pretty much the whole day, robbing Howard of vital publicity oxygen and letting Australia contemplete who would be Labor’s Treasurer. Without Sinodonis Howard was crap.
Malcolm Tunbull … doing his best to mix with the “ordinary” Australians in Bondi.
That’s the article by Malcolm Farr referred to earlier and it is quite mocking of Turnbull.
Malcolm Turnbull is turning into a front bar bloke
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24628155-5007146,00.html
Front bar blokes are the toffs, popping into the local hotel to feel the atmosphere, the back bar is where the locals and the workers drink.
Another Malcolm (Fraser), long ago, tried to show he could also mix withe ordinary folk and had a couple with the locals. He was up against Hawkie and needed to show he was not out of touch. Malcolm got semi-pissed and almost, almost looked human.
Farr also has a nice dig at Turnbull,
In other words he is still an insufferable toff.
Socrates
Newspoll does report those measures but they only ask them a few times a year.
The last “Better Economic Manager” was from 24-6 Oct and Rudd beat Truffles 50-35. Interestingly, Truffles beat Rudd in the one before the GFC taken on 19-21 Sep by 43-41.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=6
My comment “puke” to Farr’s article didn’t get published!
Rudd should not forget other tactics especially when he is on the power side of the argument and the Opposition can only oppose. Howard was adept out creating a fight (wedge) with someone or the Opposition in order to demonstrate the strength of the Government and to broadly criticise and undermine the opponent, as long as he picked the right issue.
The global economic crisis and his counter measures are the prime opportunity for Rudd to go to town on the Liberals with some hyperbole of his own. Make them look like they want Australia to fail, trying to undermine ordinary Australians and so on. This is the emotive part of the wedge that hooked the public that Howard used to find time and again. Howard used to use even the slightest bit of criticism or lack of unqualified support as an opportunity. Hence Rudd’s straight bat during the election on Haneef and The Intervention.
“This was a dog when it started, it became mangy throughout its life, and the less said about its demise the better”.
Is Barnaby talking about fuel watch? Or the National Party.
Well, today’s question time was an opportunity for the Liberals to ask some pointed questions based on their view of how to manage the GFC and it is now clear they have no idea. Another day of bashing the regulators instead. Tomorrow will be spent bashing the regulators of the financial system and Thursday they will play up to get early flights home. What a waste of time they are at present.
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