The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.
Other news:
• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.
• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.
• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.
• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.
638 Comments
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BB
Re Gratten – compared to others eg limited news people who call themselves journos – she comes up smelling of roses everytime.
Walter Cronkite said during a visit here years ago that australia had too many journos and not enough news. To that you could add we do not have enough good journos.
Take it easily with that apple
My point being that if the treasury forecast is necessarily more accurate than the RBA’s forecast because it takes estimations of future interest rates into account then the RBA forecast is superfluous.
Seems everyone understands that except the Coalition.
All this bunkum about the difference between various growth forecasts just demonstrates the utter illiteracy and ignorance of our media.
FFS they are estimates. For the sake of accuracy they should probably publish the estimate with a Margin of Error and confidence percentage as in we’re 95% confidence growth will end up being 2% +/- 0.3%. But anyone who takes any of these numbers as anything other than a rough guess is a fool. These are numbers produced by models containing lord knows how many assumptions. If they get within 1% they’re doing well. The argument that Treasury is fudging the figures because the IMF comes in with a number 0.2% lower is worse than a joke. They are for all intents and purposes predicting the same level of growth unless they are coming out and saying they are 100% confident of their prediction to within 0.1%. They aren’t saying that and they wouldn’t because they ain’t stupid unlike those picking up on the difference as though it was in any way significant.
As for the RBA not including interest rate changes well that’s pretty obvious as to why they can’t (oh look we haven’t announced it yet, but we’re going to reduce interest rates by 1.5% over the next 12 months – just keep it to yourself ok?). That doesn’t mean anyone else should ignore what seems fairly obvious. Of all the assumptions built into these models, a reduction in interest rates over the coming year would be one of the most easily defensible at this time. The RBA assessment needs to be seen in this context, and if they’re predicting 1.5% even without further easing of monetary policy they would seem a lot more bullish than possibly even Treasury. A prediction of 1.5% growth BEFORE any additional growth from dropping rates is way more positive than the ‘we’ll be rooned’ mob.
The fact that almost no one in the media has the brains to nail the opposition for their idiocy and/or dishonesty in their campaign against Henry on this matter shows them up for the bottom feeding lightweights they are.
At the end of the day though it doesn’t mean a thing. The result will end up being the result and most of the predictions will forgotten. Those that do care will look at their predictions and analyze where their assumptions were out, adjust their model and do it all over again.
304 adub
Agreed
The generally blank looks in the press club when faced with a mildly technical Q+A session with Ken Henry tells the story I suspect.
Take a look at the ABC headline “…denies…”
It’s all just pathetically simple, because that’s all the press can handle.
Henry gave a very good insight today into the future direction of the Australian taxation system, and gave some very good answers to the current stupid forecast differences issues.
The oppositions continued appeals to the masses at the expense of anyone of intelligence higher than that of a homeless drunk can’t be endearing them to anyone who is capable of driving the policy development they (and OUR country) so desperately requires.
Looks like an intellectual death spiral to me.
Turnbull has just asked Rudd about his denial to address the “…false leak…”
Yep – that’s his exact words.
That about sums it up.
maybe if we bought talcum some incontinence pads he would be able to deal with his “false leaks’.
In fact i’ve just sent a pack of depend to fiberal HQ in canberra.
I suggest other bludgers do so as well.
wonder if “people skills” will get chucked out again today.
He is poised again today looking for a punch up.
Alas he has been in the boxing ring a few rounds too long.
At this point of time both set of predictions are pointing to a similar outcome and as us poll watchers know its not the daily numbers that matter but the over all trend.
That trend is the Australian economy is slowing, Unemployment will rise a little as school leavers hit the market, but in saying this I’m still inclinde to believe we can avoid recession for while the advice from several Recruitment Consultants I’m friends with is things are very quiet, but when I loom at the currant situation several things stand out.
This morning the Age newspaper reported well heeled suburbs within the Kooyong, Higgins area were down this I noticed has been a developing story for the past few months and while it isn’t a good thing if you have just brought into the market but in the longer term is a good thing for Rents and pay were not keeping pace with the large increases I’ve seen in these areas.
I feel this may help save Australia from a bigger downturn in the longer term, also at the Federal level we have seen several measures that will provide some positive spending and the full effects of the Interest rates had combined with future rate cuts should see Australia come thought this time, my biggest worry is the behaviour of the NSW Government that seems to want to make the same mistakes that Governments made in 1890 and 1930, that being to cut spending.
Normally I strongly oppose budget debt but as long as it is due to short term spending then we can live with it for a year or two, in other words the two Sydney rail projects should proceed for they are once off spending.
Krugman was writing the other day that Obama’s problem with advocating an immediate stimulus package was that he might not be aggressive enough. He was saying think of your number then add 50%. Better to be too much than not enough.
As far as NSW goes the government is just about terminal anyway so being careful and introspective aint going to help them. They have nothing to lose so they may as well do the right things and take on debt for spending in the right areas.
Australian journalism is like a pack of mangy dogs chasing after the back wheel of a bike. Make a lot of pointless noise and waste a lot of energy on something they don’t understand. The sooner the Liberal Party ABC is morteined and Murdoch karks it followed by a total change in media laws, the better for the country.
At the moment the ABC and Murdoch media simply encourage and enhance the incompetence of the Opposition by not holding them to even the lowest standard of credibility. That they (the media) aid and abet the attack on the RBA and Treasury for political purposes shows they have not one care about anybody or anything else apart from trying to help the Liberal party, at whatever expense to the country. Media seems to be at its lowest point in terms of honesty and quality and purpose. Maybe they will follow the path of the Republicans and Liberal party.
ffs the media is predictable if nothing else
Sound familiar?
Why Obama Looks Like a One Termer
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/11/11/why-obama-could-be-a-one-term-president.html
I have to throw this in…
Hope floats in watery ring of democracy
Best laugh I’ve had all day. It’s a boilerplate Obama article, but instead written about John Key.
mex,
The NSW government is the best advertisement for the maxim that ‘most governments get one term more than they should’. They started off as a fairly competent administration, if far too spooked about budget deficits. Now though they are that far beyond merely incompetent as to be dangerous. Yesterday was a disaster for NSW (and the nation) and will set us back years. We needed spending on infrastructure, lower taxes and red tape and S&P be damned.
Rees makes people long for Debnam. He might mean well, but he hasn’t got a clue. So long as O’Farrell can keep his trap shut NSW Labor is going to get mother of all hidings come 2011 and it will be richly deserved. Let’s hope the Libs can get over the ‘debt is baaaad’ rubbish they’ve been peddling since Greiner and use some borrowings to finance the infrastructure investment this state has missed out on since Wran was in Macquarie St. They’re going to get three terms minimum if they don’t stuff it up completely.
Yeah, yeah, NSW government is bad, will get thrown out. Just wait your two years and you’ll get that miracle government that will fix everything. LOL
There’s no way the Libs will be in power for 12 years. Anyway, there’s another thread for NSW stuff.
hmmm don’t remember saying the Libs would fix everything, In fact I have very grave doubts about them as expressed regarding debt financing, but sure go ahead and pretend the current government have any redeeming features at all if it helps you cope.
These turkeys are trashing the Labor brand and it will take a long time or monumental Coalition incompetence before the people of NSW are willing to give them another shot. 2011 will make Unsworth look like winner. But hey I’ll cop Oz’s tip and move further discussion to the correct thread.
Please point out where I say this government has any redeeming features.
I don’t know if you recall how bad the Kirner government was in Victoria in the early 90’s but I assure you they would push the Rees government for ineptitude. I helped them out the door and helped Kennett to get in by a very big margin if I remember correctly. He lasted 7, that’s 7 years. Don’t assume NSW Labor will be in opposition for the next decade. Political fortunes move quickly.
Didn’t watch QT today but it sounds as if it was fun, Tuckey finally got his just desserts
….
Juliem
Tuckey wears these suspensions as a badge of courage.
he does this to catch the flight to perth and ensure he has a long weekend at home
(more time to practice his “witty” outbursts methinks)
Gus, when the punishment is desirable and no longer a deterrent they need to get another form of punishment
…… same as rule #1 from Parenting 101 class 
AW WHAT. The one day I don’t watch. =(
It certainly was! The Opposition started with its current line of questioning regarding the “phone leak”, until their third or so question, when the PM said (paraphrasing) “instead of this, you should be asking members of the former government about the ONA leak a certain Melbourne paper reported on”. Then nothing.
All remaining Oppostion questions seemed ad hoc and without theme. Quite boring until Wilson stamped his foot.
Look who’s joined the party:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24641486-12377,00.html
Idiot.
I wonder if he’ll attempt to make Bush front the inquiry.
No, you idiot. As the article said earlier:
So that leaves one. The scope of the inquiry should simply be to ascertain why The Australian published mistruths.
This is just getting ridiculous
True, but that means we’re getting closer to the punchline
not since the “narrowing” have the public been subjected to such a blatant lie as the latest smear .
The fact that both the us and oz gvts have denied any “leak” does nothing to stop the hyenas of the press continuing to bay the stories merit
The mock outrage by the fibs (and now boyblunder has thrown in his lot as well) attests to the fact that this is some heavy duty issue that affects the outcome of the world in the fib worldview.
Too bad the fibs cant concentrate as much energy into policy development and reasonable debate.
Triton wrote earlier on:
Grattan is lazy and cliched (which, when discussing a writer, amounts to the same thing).
For example, the other day she wrote that the mortgage funds had lost “mega-billions” of dollars as a result of Rudd’s bank guarantee policy.
Firstly they didn’t “lose” anything. But let’s move on from this egregious error of fact.
“Mega” means “million”. She used “billions“… plural. Multiply 1,000,000 (1 x mega) by 2-billion (2 x”billion”) and you arrive at the result: Two-thousand trillion dollars. Since only $14 billion was involved in the funds, dividing 14 billion into 2,000 trillion shows that Grattan over-egged her estimate by 143,000 to one. That’s out by a factor of over 5 orders of magnitude.
Yes, yes, yes, she was writing creatively, or poeticalloy, but 143,000 times the actual figure is a lot of poetry. It’s lazy, incompetent, cliched and downright dangerous. Grattan either had no sense of arithmetic (dangerous in a journalist writing about economic numbers), she couldn’t be bothered actually working the correct figure out (laziness) or she had an agenda (to turn a very respectable response by the government into some kind of disaster). I think it’s a mix of all three.
And that’s why I don’t think Grattan is at all balanced.
Anyone can toss off “mega billions”, like 16 year old schoolkids talking about how rich someone else’s father is. But not an experienced “respected” journalist. Anyone can say things will go well, badly or in-between, as Grattan does regularly. But that is not good journalism, and is certainly not balance. It’s laziness and cuteness rolled up into one ball of incompetence. La Stupenda should retire and make way for someone who isn’t just going through the motions.
It’s the old conservative standby: tiny mistakes (assuming there was one) can and will be leveraged into nation-destroying catastrophes, but only by Labor.
We have the ex-PM, Howard, saying the terrorists would be praying for an Obama-Democrat win, thus in one stroke retrospectively justifying the landslide of votes away from him. This was a public, deliberate statement and is palmed off as a mere bagatelle.
Yet, get the paper-clips order wrong, and suddenly the Labor bod responsible has his whole character and judgement, even the fate of the nation called into question.
It’s a manifestation of the “born to rule” mentality: Labor just aren’t “the kind of chaps” you want anywhere near the wheels of power. They are “oafs” and “barbarians”, as Akerman puts it. No further justification necessary.
But judging by the results of the latest Newspoll, it doesn’t work. there’s a word for beating your head against a brick wall repeatedly, trying the same failed technique time and time again: madness.
I rest my case. It’s Henry and the government against the doomsayers.
From my experience the doomsayers are up against it. Most people I talk to despair of the negativity of the media. They’re sick of it.
I’m pretty sure Ken Henry called the Opposition “amateurs” in his answer to the first Press Club question. Or at least those members accusing him of being a government stooge.
After taking time to explaining how small the gap is between Treasury’s 2% growth forecast, the IMF’s 1.8% and the RBA’s 1.6% (when calculated on the same parameters as Treasury’s) and the reasons for the variations, he quoted from an article by Ross Gittins:
then stopped talking and just stood there pokerfaced until, after a longish pause, telling the moderator he’d finished his answer.
Classic!!!!!
I am beginning to sound like a cracked record, another day wasted by the Liberal Party, running around like headless chooks does not an oppostion make.
Julie Bishop has become a joke, her one question today was greeted with “bet you did not write it”, she is politically dead – swinging in the breeze, waiting for someone to put her out of her misery.
Avuncular Joe was the last gasp today in QT – when is his next gig at the Comedy Club? He sure had the Govt. peeing themselves with laughter.
Anyone see Barnaby at the Henry Press club thing, red faced, tired and emotional maybe, he looked ill.
When Labor pick up 20 seats at the next Federal election maybe the Liberal Party will get its act together?
I’m concerned about poor Rupert. I had the telly on in the background and they showed him at some function for whatever reason. He just does not look happy.
Hmm with all those billions, wonder why? Far be it from me to give him advice, but maybe if News Corporation could improve its dividend yield from the lousy 1% its been paying over the last decade, to in line with other blue chips, institutions may not realise the poor value of its stock in real terms which will therefore prevent total capitulation of its share price.
Centre, maybe if Limited News Corporation could improve its products, i.e., retire the terminally deluded from their dead tree and other media, maybe their share price would improve? I, like many others, are heartily sick of the daily negative carping that emanates from the MSM.
Mayo, Ken Henry certainly had a go at the Opposition and Her Maj’s Loyal Leader of the Opposition and Member for Wentworth. It’s worth a visit to Peter Martin to read the whole speech.
Thanks HSO – I watched it but the last few question/answers were cut off. Ken Henry is one classy guy.
Actually, the more you see of the Opposition in action, the more the polls not moving, really, terribly much anywhere, but to cement Labor federally makes sense.
Frankly, their performance warrants these polling results.
Bernard Keane had a piece in Crikey today re so called ‘phonegate’. Clicked on to read comments – there were quite a few and all but 1 were along the lines of the Press Gallery are ‘up themselves’ and get over it. Quite funny really. Those journos refuse to acknowledge that the mob out here are right about Kev.
I agree with BB about La Stupenda as he calls her. I used to think Grattan was pretty good but round about Feb/March something must have happened with her because, even on RN with the clueless Fran Kelly, she has not been as evenhanded as she used to be. Is she worried about losing the gig on the ABC or did Kev & Co upset her about something?
Or is that the Age is supposed to be moving to the right now that it is under pressure.
HSO
While we’re being frank, I’m worried that with the Fibs current performance the polling is not deteriorating, which would be a more accurate measure of the opposition’s performance.
Just out of interest, can someone name the last intellectual policy debate carried out between parliamentary members of the two main parties?
BH – yes Ken Henry is indeed a cut above his political masters.
onimod
that is a good question.
‘Just out of interest, can someone name the last intellectual policy debate carried out between parliamentary members of the two main parties’
for mine you would have to reach back to the late 40’s interms of inter party debate,
in terms of intra party debate perhaps the mid to late 80’s for the fabs and the 40’s for the fibs.
onimod, let’s just wait a bit shall we? 55 vs. 45, and particularly if you look at Possum’s pollytrack series says a great deal, IMO. I think the people have taken a look at Her Maj’s Loyal Leader of the Opposition and Member for Wentworth, and the Party he leads, and have pretty much made up their minds for now. This polling is pretty much better than Labor did at the actual election. Mind boggling when you think about it.
HSO re 334, agree. re 337 disagree. PPM 62 to 22. Lightweight is getting lighter!
I have not read much of Grattan but I thought she was unbiased because Cossie asked her if she is still taking her medication.
Fibs current performance won’t affect their rusted on supporters, Ominod, so they will always get a certain proportion of the poll numbers.
At the moment tho the swingers are still going with Labor and Turnbull & Co’s ridiculous ravings are not going to change that yet.
Poor old Malcolm’s barrister act in Parliament is feeding his ego. ‘Look at me! Look at me!’ he says but all I see is a trumped up, dodgy merchant banker.
BTW, I was about to start screaming at that idiot Michael Brissenden on the 7.30 Report, and the undoubtedly more extended air time, Hockey and Turnbull got in his segment, when on comes Swan for a grilling by Kerry. Calmed down and watched the interview and came to the conclusion that while he may have some difficult moments in front of the camera, and why wouldn’t you have, when you’re trying to explain something that’s never happened before, and what the government proposes to do about is, he’s doing O.K. I’ve got a soft spot for Tanner, specifically as a communicator, however, as Kerry got more and more insistent about pushing Swan into defending going into deficit, if need be, I thought Swan handled it well. Certainly makes Mesmerelda look like a dill.
The other “between the lines” message I got from Henry’s speech today, is that while he understands he has to deal with governments of both persuasions, he’s rather pleased with his job at the moment, i.e., he gets to deal with a government that actually has a clue.
Lets be honest: The Libs believe someone’s been pressuring senior public servants, because thats precisely what they used to do up till last Nov.
Gary @ 318
I’m intrigued Gary that you say (and have said before a number of times) that you helped the Kirner Govt “out the door”. Especially for a Labor loyalist such as you.
What did you actually do to cause the downfall of a Government? Come on, don’t be modest.
I think Grattan, like a few commentators is undermined by the fact that she has to write something, and very often about nothing.
The model of filling column inches regardless is dying.
it’s the same catch 22 the whole MSM, TV radio and print, is stuck in – their ’success’ and revenue is measured by short term popularity, a model that is at it’s core is contradictory with long term stable revenue and success.
BH – it’s the unthinking rusted-ons on both sides that deliver us the pissweak bare minimum crap we get in parliament. It might be true, but it doesn’t mean it’s good/right.
Fair enough, Centre. I’d love to know what’s going on within the Lib. Party at the moment. Judith Troethe was on PM this evening speaking about having the terrorism laws reviewed. Some incredible tensions within the Libs. clearly exist.
I go that impression listening to Henry as well – absolutely loved his speech to his staff before the election campaign last year. Alan Ramsey reported it so it will be in his archive somewhere if you can find it. Costello & Howard hated it and I’m sure that is the reason for the deningration going on now with the Fibs. It is pay back time.
I loved the way he pointedly made comments today which were directed at ‘we know who’. His comments re the economy being talked down so much had to be aimed at Turnbull & Co.
Lindsay Tanner was spot on today in QT – he certainly cuts through but I think he is probably the only one who can keep the spending in check at this stage so his job is hugely important. I also think he won’t take any BS from his Cabinet mates if they want to spend like wounded bulls.
Swannie is not stupid and is obviously listening to Ken Henry. After hearing Henry today we can be confident that Swannie will be OK.
I don’t mind the Opposition asking questions to get information for a vote but the continual deningration and negativity about Kev & Co is very tiring.
Ominod – yeah I know the rusted-ons can be nauseating but, heck, you need them to round up the votes sometimes and to do all the hack work. I’m one of them but that doesn’t mean that I can’t say what I want to if I am unhappy with something that is being done. I make sure that I say it loudly.
And I think the ‘pissweak’ lot have been so bad (especially here in NSW) that it means better candidates are now being looked at and sought in many electorates.
The bloke we had in this area last time was a beauty and if he decides to run again he will be preselected and we will have even more incentive to make sure he gets up in 2010. We are not far off it.
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