Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Newspoll: 55-45

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 55-45 from 54-46 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 59-25 to 62-22. Graphic here.

Other news:

• The weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Also featured are questions on level of interest in the US election and the Rudd government’s performance on various issues, the big surprise of which is a poor rating on health – possibly a spillover from mounting disaffection with various state governments.

• The redistribution of Western Australian federal electoral boundaries has been finalised. Two changes have been made from the proposal unveiled in August. One involves nomenclature: the electorate name of Kalgoorlie has been decomissioned after a history going back to federation, with the originally proposed Kalgoorlie instead to take the name of O’Connor and O’Connor to take on the new name of Durack. The second is substantive: part of the suburb of Tapping has been moved from Moore to Cowan. My back-of-envelope calculation suggests this will boost the Liberal margin in highly marginal Cowan from 1.1 per cent to 1.3 or 1.4. Margins in other electorates remain as calculated by Antony Green.

• The Tasmanian Liberal Party hasn’t wasted any time getting its Senate preselection for the next federal election in order, and the big news is that the Right faction’s Guy Barnett has been demoted from number two in 2004 to the loseable number three. The new number two is Stephen Parry, who was elected from number three in 2004.

• Speaking of Tasmania, the ABC reports that EMRS has conducted one of its semi-regular 1000-sample state polls. No figures on voting intention are provided, but we will presumably be hearing more shortly.

638 Comments

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  1. 401
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    I don’t think stating the bleeding obvious counts, hombre.

  2. 402
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 10:23 am | Permalink

    “Leak or no leak the fact is it has and will do bugger all damage to anything.”

    Apart from the Government’s promise to bring in a new era of transparency and accountability.

  3. 403
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    Apart from the Government’s promise to bring in a new era of transparency and accountability

    Oh please

  4. 404
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Only in Queensland!

    A BOOZY night out for Liberal National Party politicians in Cairns ended with a waiter chasing two MPs down the street after they took off without paying the bill.

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24644885-952,00.html

  5. 405
    Oz
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 11:05 am | Permalink

    Anna Bligh should call an election.

  6. 406
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 11:11 am | Permalink

    Nah, if she waits till late next year, these idiots in the “Pineapple Party” will continue to self destruct and she should go close to getting polling figures in line with the current federal ones.

  7. 407
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    if you want to have a squiz at the ABC blog on phonegate and Fielding, its overwhelmingly turning the whole matter into a miniscule nothing, i think theres only two blogs in all of them thats supportive of the coalition’s witch hunt.

    http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2008/11/13/2418295.htm

  8. 408
    triton
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 11:34 am | Permalink

    How does Fielding say it affects families?

  9. 409
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 11:39 am | Permalink

    Won’t somebody think of the children???

  10. 410
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    403 – Dario, couldn’t put it better myself.

  11. 411
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 12:06 pm | Permalink

    Sitting here watching this whole debate about who predicts what, why and how is a reminder to voterland that some pollies are good for port and some are good for lipstick

  12. 412
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    Turnbull has a l o n g way to go to catch up with the popularity of PM Kevin Rudd.

    So many people were signing up to follow Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's short text message updates on Twitter last night that his new page on the social networking site crashed.

    A spokeswoman for Mr Rudd said the Prime Minister had 670 Twitter followers late last night, but he lost most of them when the page crashed due to high demand.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/technology/web/twitter-turmoil-crashes-rudd-website/2008/11/13/1226318798926.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

  13. 413
    Tom
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

    “Apart from the Government’s promise to bring in a new era of transparency and accountability.”

    itep – the governments promise to bring in a new era of transparency and accountability was referring to the government, not morally bankrupt and dishonest oppositions and pathetic lnp hacks masquerading as journalists behind the dodgy facade of the OO.

    Tom.

  14. 414
    BigBob
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    ltep, the evidence shows that the government has tried to introduce more transparency and accountability – with the opposition attempting to stymie all the measures in the senate.

    There is no comparison between this government and the previous one on this front.

    My view about this all, is that hte media expect all new governments to struggle and have plenty of cokups and scandals to deal with in the first 18 months or so. Compare the first term of the Hawke and Howard governments to the incumbent. This governement has seen remarkably few cock-ups and no real scandals. Hence this ridiculous phone beat up becomes a huge affair with the pundits.

    The rest of Australia doesn’t even notice.

  15. 415
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    Compare the first term of the Hawke and Howard governments to the incumbent

    You’re not wrong

  16. 416
    Inner Westie
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

    scorpio @404

    Imagine that happening in the days of Sir Joh. A tanked up Russ Hinze barging down the pavement, knocking over small trees and fruit carts! Don Lane scampering behind him snatching ice-creams off small children and hurling them into the gutter.

  17. 417
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    Another Qld Nat who would be right at home with the Conservative faction of the GOP.

    Nationals Senator Ron Boswell says a discussion on second trimester abortions in cases of severe disability is reminiscent of the Nazis' views on eugenics.

    Queensland Nationals Senator Ron Boswell has attacked the submission's discussion of whether abortion should be available when there are signs of severe disability.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/13/2418568.htm

  18. 418
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    Inner Westie @ 416,

    It looks as though Stevens is a serial offender and doesn’t like sharing the bill if the other person has more expensive tastes. Doesn’t seem to like his colleagues much either. Seems pretty typical of the Coalition.

    "I like the situation where we just split the bill up at the end of the night but unfortunately those people who like mud crab and champagne, it ruins it for the rest of us."

    Mr Stevens says he is "out of pocket" from the Cairns trip.

    "I can remember I sort of lost some money out of going to Cairns but that's okay - it's all part and parcel of the bonhomie that we have to build," he said.

    "I'm not particularly matey with any of my political friends.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/13/2418536.htm

  19. 419
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    A tanked up Russ Hinze

    I think he was like that all the time, he owned a number of pubs.

  20. 420
    juliem
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

    QT only one question old and Julia already taking Malcolm to the cleaners :-D …..

  21. 421
    dave
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

    Go Julia cut him to pieces

  22. 422
    triton
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:05 pm | Permalink

    #420
    Yes, a fresh, imaginative approach from Julia. Good stuff.

  23. 423
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

    Care to share folks?

  24. 424
    triton
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:15 pm | Permalink

    #423
    She reminded the House of the recent phone call between Rudd and Obama, then asked members opposite to imagine the call between Howard and Obama (had Howard won the election), after quoting the entire text of what Howard had said about Obama, terrorism and Al Quaeda etc.

  25. 425
    juliem
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

    Dario,

    Julia ripping into Malcolm about why the @#*($&*(#&$*(#&$*(# the Liberal party doesn’t apologize to Obama about the reckless comment JH made about him when JH was PM :-D ….. that wasn’t all of it, but the best part of it imho :-D

  26. 426
    Inner Westie
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

    scorpio @418

    The old “mud crap and champagne on a split bill” trick! I reckon Stevens would have been planning his getaway from the moment the posh nosh was served.

    (This story has Queensland political vaudeville written all over it …)

    The managers of Russ’ pubs could never understand why, with good margins and high turnover, they always seemed to be in the red … until they spotted the big fella slurping away in the corner!

  27. 427
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    The best defense is a good offense

  28. 428
    dave
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

    ie attack

  29. 429
    juliem
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

    Lindsay Tanner reminding all of the House that John Howard didn’t request money through formal channels before commiting to the Iraq war ;-) ……

  30. 430
    juliem
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    427,428;

    you can bet that Malcolm won’t ask any more phonegate questions today ;-)

  31. 431
    dave
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    allbull trying to get govt to pass laws re Govt G/- for banks so that fibs can block it in the senate. Tanner says this is within existing exec govt power.

    allbull has had several cracks at this so far

    fibs bi-partisan approach at work. Not.

  32. 432
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:40 pm | Permalink

    Stevens is a cheap-scape 1st class too.

    "I actually tipped the little Spanish waiter while I was there on the night - a $5 cash tip."

    Mr Stevens said he probably ended up out of pocket after the two bill incidents.

    "I remember I sort of lost some money out of going to Cairns, but that's OK, it's all part and parcel of the bonhomie we have to build," he joked.

    http://news.theage.com.au/national/qld-mp-denies-doing-a-runner-20081113-65wd.html

    Bonhomie, eh. How to win friends and influence people 101. Don’t think there are too many friends among this lot.

  33. 433
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    Another example of why Rudd is so popular.

    PM pays tribute to late Australian columnist Matt Price

    THE image of the prime ministerial boxers being infiltrated by a brace of redback spiders was one Kevin Rudd found hard to banish from his mind.

    The metaphor was invented by Matt Price, the late columnist for The Australian newspaper, to describe the effect the new opposition leader was having on then prime minister John Howard in the argy-bargy of parliament in early 2007.

    The fictional arachnid attack gave readers a flavour of the terror Mr Howard must have felt as he faced an opponent who finally had his measure.

    "I'm not sure how he came up with that image and I'm not sure I want to know ... it never entirely left my mind," Mr Rudd said.

    Launching a compilation of Price's columns, Top Price, at Parliament House today, Mr Rudd paid tribute to the late journalist's knack for taking a sharp, funny and at times barbed outsider's view of politics.

    It is almost a year since the well-loved Price died on November 25, the day after the Rudd Government was elected.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24645758-12377,00.html

  34. 434
    dovif
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    Big Bob

    Yeah few cock ups and scandles, apart from

    Belinda Neal
    Bank Guarantee causing market to crash 5%
    Getting Neal Henry to take the fall on RBA governors concern over bank guarantee fiasco
    Snobbing our 2nd biggest trade partner by not visiting Japen in first tour
    Upsetting chinese premier by raising human rights issue before the olympics

    and it is only the first year, but he is definitely doing better than the NSW ALP Government …. so far

  35. 435
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:52 pm | Permalink

    Dovif
    you are on crack if you think any of what you just mentioned is going to have traction with the electorate

  36. 436
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    Upsetting chinese premier by raising human rights issue before the olympics

    Oh no! Not HUMAN RIGHTS, not those things! They are so annoying!

  37. 437
    triton
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:53 pm | Permalink

    Am I right that the Opposition has asked Gillard only one question? They’re afraid of her.

  38. 438
    dave
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    fibs as ever full of hate and loathing

    must be time for another leaflet drop in the seat of lindsay

  39. 439
    BigBob
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Belinda Neal is a loudmouthed nobody – No ministerial scalps yet my boy.

    Err right, the bank guarantee caused what? Hmm, maybe the fact that everything else in the world was crashing at the same time had a small amount to do with it.

    If you think Ken Henry is taking a fall for anybody, you have rocks in your head.

    Japan had way too many other internal political problems to give a rats about a visit from the new PM.

    Bringing up human rights with China was a plus politically at home. China didn’t care, they still wanted our resources.

    If that’s your list, then I reckon we are 1000% better than the previous two governments first terms still.

  40. 440
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    434 Dovif
    Belinda Neal (Found to have no case to answer).
    Bank Guarantee causing market to crash 5% (Most economists in favour)
    Getting Neal Henry to take the fall on RBA governors concern over bank guarantee fiasco. (It’s Ken Henry and this is BS).
    Snobbing our 2nd biggest trade partner by not visiting Japen in first tour (Opinion and found to be BS).
    Upsetting chinese premier by raising human rights issue before the olympics. (So? We still have a great relationship with China).

  41. 441
    dave
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    Julia just hit hockey right between the eyes -

  42. 442
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    The ABC do definately seem to be going feral with regard anything reported concerning the Rudd Government.

    PETER CAVE: The Greens have thrown the Prime Minister a lifeline, deciding not to back a Senate inquiry into the leaking of details of Mr Rudd's phone conversations with President Bush.

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2418224.htm

    “Lifeline”, spare me!

  43. 443
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    Dave,

    Well, what happened?

  44. 444
    dave
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    hockey made detailed allegations re dean miles oseas trip – very detailed allegations.

    Julia said inter alia we live in democracy, allegations need to dealt with by relevant authorities etc – but if member for nth syd, if he has such detailed info etc on the matter he shd take it to the police – failure to do so with reveal just the sort of person he is.

  45. 445
    Inner Westie
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    “Upsetting chinese premier by raising human rights issue before the olympics”

    - Two-way trade approaching $US50 billion
    - More students from China studying in Australia than any other group (70,000 in 2006)
    - Negotiations underway for a bilateral free trade agreement
    - China seeking direct shareholdings in Australian (and other) resource sectors due to its concern about future resource security and the ever increasing pricing power of exporters

    Upset enough to jeopardize all this?

    Source: ABC Radio Australia.

  46. 446
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Hockey probably conveniently forgot that Rudd had Dean Mighel expelled from the ALP.
    It shows just how desperate they are to hang anything on Labor.

    Every time they shoot the gun they forget to aim and end up firing blanks.

  47. 447
    dovif
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

    Since Kevin Rudd had declared war on everything. The Chasers are suing Kevin Rudd for copyright violation.

    Kevin Rudd had subsequently declared war on the Chasers, as well as Jelly beans, which are not very good for you.

    He also declare war on old man walking. John Howard is no longer allow to walk in Australia with those stupid tracksuits on

  48. 448
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    By the looks of this LNP crew, they probably run up quite a bill every time they eat out. No wonder they like to try for the fleet footed discount.

    http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2008/11/13/15301_local-news.html

  49. 449
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    John Howard is no longer allow to walk in Australia with those stupid tracksuits on

    I heard that he still does. He now wears the bottom half for the top which hides his head, but has a problem with the other part because his dangly bits are now exposed through the hole for the neck.

    Janet isn’t amused.

  50. 450
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, November 13, 2008 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    re mighel
    just cos he is union boss=boo,why not the employer reps who were with him as well on the trip.

    double standards reign supreme among the fibs

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