UPDATE (29/11/08): For inside dope on progressive counting, Ben Raue of The Tally Room will feed through results provided by his contacts in the Greens. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews might be good for news from the other side of the fence. The Poll Bludger Investigations Unit is also at work in comments.
Local government is the proverbial bridge too far as far as my own commentary is concerned, but here by popular demand is a thread for reader discussion of the imminent Victorian council elections. I gather that most of these are held by post with a deadline of Friday, November 28 for receipt of ballots, but a few holdouts (Banyule, Brimbank, Greater Dandenong, Glen Eira, Hobsons Bay, Knox, Moreland, Port Phillip and my old home of Yarra) do it the old-fashioned way the following day (see the Victorian Electoral Commission for more detail).
Not sure how much success I’ll have with this, but it’s a worth a try. Readers who know or care about a particular local government contest are invited to write a brief, non-partisan overview in comments. If it meets my specifications I will give it a run up here, while keeping an ongoing invitation to other commenters to suggest additions or amendments. To get the ball rolling, I’ll start with everything I can tell you about the race for the lord mayoralty.
Melbourne City Council: After serving two four-year terms as lord mayor, John So is not seeking a third. The candidates to watch appear to be former state Liberal leader Robert Doyle; Adam Bandt, the Greens candidate who came within swinging distance of Lindsay Tanner in the seat of Melbourne at last year’s federal election; current councillor Catherine Ng; Will Fowles, who I’m told is from the Labor Left; Peter McMullin, former Geelong mayor and Labor election candidate linked to the party’s Right faction (although his running mate is the none too Labor-friendly Tim Wilson, director of the Institute of Public Affairs’ free trade unit); and Gary Morgan of Roy Morgan Research fame. The latter has helpfully furnished us with his very own opinion poll, which shows Doyle well ahead of Bandt on first preferences with Ng in third place. Second preferences are apparently set to produce a close race for second between Bandt, Ng and Morgan, with none posing a threat to Doyle. Bandt appears not to have done well out of preference recommendations, including those of candidates linked to Labor.
Darebin City Council: Three wards electing three councillors. Hat tip to Martin B and Caroline Church for the following.
Rucker ward: There are two Labor candidates, two Greens (Trent McCarthy and Helen Brown) and five others, only one of whom has much of an independent local profile – Darren Lewin-Hill. The ward is the stronghold of the Labor Unity sub-faction associated with state MPs Theo Theophanous and Nazih Elasmar, and is not being contested by the rival sub-faction of Michael Leighton and Robin Scott, the former and current members for Preston. At corresponding booths in the 2007 federal election, Labor polled 49 per cent of the primary vote, the Greens 31 per cent and Liberal 16 per cent. If those numbers are reflective of this vote, the result should be straightforward: one Labor and one Greens candidate will be comfortably elected, with the third seat going to the other Labor candidate or, less likely, Lewin-Hill if he can gather enough Labor preferences and votes from Liberals.
Cazaly ward: There are 17 candidates, nine of whom identify as Labor members (4 Unity, 4 Socialist Left, one unaligned), plus one Greens, one “conservative independent” (allegedly a former Labor member with a decidedly non-conservative activist history) and six other independents. The Labor candidates include incumbents Vince Fontana, a former mayor and member of the Leighton-Scott faction, and Alison Donohue, who is also receiving Leighton-Scott preferences but is apparently not directly linked. Haphazard preference arrangements suggests their proliferation might be down not to dummy candidates, as one might suspect, but to poor party organisation. Donohue and two other candidates, Ben Morgan and Joe Cutri, seem to have fared the best of the nine on preferences. The corresponding federal booth results were Labor 60 per cent, Liberal 20 per cent and Greens 16 per cent, suggesting Greens candidate Mohammed El-leissy will have to rely on Labor fragmentation to get a look-in.
La Trobe ward: Even more candidates than Cazaly ward, with better organisation lending greater credence to suspicions of dummy candidates. No fewer than 16 candidates recommend some permutation of preferences for Gaetano Greco and Tim Laurence of the Labor Socialist Left, while five candidates recommend preferences for the Unity ticket of Stanley Chiang (another associated of Leighton and Scott) and Tania Sharkas. Also on the receiving end of most Socialist Left preference arranagements is Melissa Salata of the Theophanous-Elasmar sub-faction of Labor Unity, who is hostile to the Leighton-Scott sub-faction. That leaves only the Greens candidate, Sara Scally, and another who recommends a preference to her. The campaign between the Socialist Left and Unity has been bitter: Laurence took internal party action against Chiang (which was dismissed), and there were counter-claims that Laurence broke party rules with his material. The federal election booth numbers here were Labor 62 per cent, Liberal 23 per cent and Greens 8 per cent, suggesting the issue is likely to be how the three seats divide between Socialist Left and Unity.
Banyule City Council: Consists of seven wards in Melbourne’s inner north-east. Olympia ward: Incumbent Anthony Carbines is chief-of-staff to Education Minister Bronwyn Pike (and the son of upper house MP Elaine Carbines), and thus unquestionably aligned to Labor. Beale ward: Incumbent Wayne Phillips was the Liberal member for Eltham from 1992 to 2002, when he became one of dozens of victims of the first Brackslide. Ibbot ward: Incumbent Tom Melican is said to be an independent. Hawdon ward: Vacant ward being contested by two Labor members, Sandra MacNeil and Martin Appleby, along with an independent and a Green. Grimshaw ward: Labor incumbent Dean Sherriff is being contested by two fellow party members, Frank Beard and Jess Paul. Sherriff’s career on council was saved in April 2007 when a conviction for criminal damage was overturned on appeal, but he retains a conviction for assault relating to the same incident. Griffin ward: Incumbent Jenny Mulholland challenged by Steve Walpole, a Labor member, and Dora Bergman, a one-time running mate of Mulholland. Bakewell ward: A rematch between Liberal incumbent Peter McKenna and Labor member Michael Paul, following a very close result in 2005. Andrew Landeryou’s VexNews reports that Greens candidate Ian Kirk has raised eyebrows by giving McKenna his second preference. A Greens supporter in comments claims this was in response to Paul’s attitude in preference negotiations, but the Labor camp insists discussions were entirely cordial until Kirk advised he would preference McKenna on the grounds that he was a “serious candidate”.
Glen Eira City Council: Glen Eira has gone against the prevailing trend by changing from postal to attendance voting. This has apparently discouraged dummy candidates, resulting in 26 nominations compared with 61 in 2005. The council consists of three wards which each elect three councillors, with seven sitting councillors seeking re-election. The assessments that follow come direct from Winston in comments. Camden ward: Michael Lipshutz and Helen Whiteside are standing for re-election and appear to be working together with the backing of the Liberal Party – although neither are members. Other candidates include local businessman Frank Penhalluriack (who actually lives in Kew) and a residents group ticket headed by Peter Blight. Lipshutz is a prominent member of the Jewish community and with over one third of the ward Jewish should have no problems getting re-elected. Penhalluriack has number one position on the voting card which will help him. Lipshutz, Whiteside and Penhalluriack are spending big and will probably be elected. Rosstown ward: Nine candidates. Three sitting councillors standing: Margaret Esakoff, Steven Tang and Rob Spaulding. This is the only ward with a Greens candidate – Neil Pilling – who could be the wild card as he is getting some flow of preferences. Tucker ward: Ten candidates, two sitting councillors standing: Nick Staikos (Labor) and Henry Buch (Liberal). Buch may struggle as he only recently joined council on a countback after the resignation of former Mayor David Feldman. Fellow Liberal and former councillor Jamie Hyams has scored number one position and should be elected. The other candidate with a chance is Jim Magee, who lead the fight to save the local swimming pool and polled well in the 2005 election.
Kingston City Council: The council has been reformed from seven single-member wards to three three-member wards. Hat-tip to Deano in comments for the following. North ward: Incumbent councillors Greg Alabaster and Arthur Athanasopolous are likely to be returned, but the third is up for grabs. Contestants are Paul Peulich, son of Liberal MP Inga Peulich, and Liz Larking, a past councillor and former ALP member. Mara Hayler is running for the Greens. Central ward: No fewer than 21 candidates have nominated, included 73-year-old mayor Bill Nixon and councillor Rosemary West. Other candidates include past councillor Ron Brownless, said to have done well out of preference recommendations, and John Natoli, an independent running a “well-organised campaign”. Three candidates have Labor links, including former state upper house MP Noel Pullen. Geoff Heard is said to be a “dark horse” and a “greenie”, although the actual Greens candidate is Dean Andrew. South Ward: John Ronke, incumbent for the Braeside Park ward, is said to be certain to win one of the three seats. Twelve candidates are competing for the other two. They include Donna Bauer, said to have run a “big spending campaign”; Trever Shewan, a former councillor; Carlos Lopez, the candidate of the Greens; Jeremy Nash, a member of the ALP; and Peter Wertheimer, an RSL captain.
Port Phillip City Council: JH writes in comments: “Another interesting council will be Port Phillip with the Unchain crew looking a reasonable chance in Catani Ward (Serge Thomann has been getting lots of press) and MAV boss Dick Gross could have a fight on his hands to be re-elected in Junction Ward. Having said that, I’ve not seen HTVs for anyone, so I don’t know who’s giving what. The Greens are running in every ward bar Albert Park, which is uncontested.”.
Bendigo Shire Council: The Greens have an incumbent mayor here in David Jones, seeking re-election in Kangaroo Flat ward. Another Greens incumbent is former mayor Julie Rivendell of Eppalock ward. The council consists of nine single-member wards: I gather councillors have an annual vote to determine who hte mayor will be for the coming year. The Greens between them have held the position for three of the past four years. North West Plains ward councillor Kevin Gibbins was a Liberal candidate at the 2004 federal and 2006 state elections.
Mount Alexander Shire Council: Commenter Follow the Preferences has high hopes for the Greens here. The council consists of the three-member Castlemaine ward in the centre, which is surrounded by the single-member rural wards of Tarrengower, Calder, Coliban and Loddon. The Greens have one incumbent in Philip Schier of Castlemaine ward, with Jan Garood and Doug Ralph respectively contesting Coliban and Calder.
381 Comments
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Assuming the figures in 224 are correct-ish, and that preference flows are reasonably as recommended (and I have no faith in either assumption) then the best sense I can make of it is:
If (in the 11th? exclusion) Morgan is excluded before Ng, then Ng is likely to win
else if (in the 12th? exclusion) Bandt is excluded before McMullin and Singer, then Singer is likely to win
else Doyle is likely to win.
So your scientific conclusion is that … anyone might win. That’s very helpful.
Also those figures were posted 5 hours ago. Does no-one have more recent figures?
The NT enrolment could have been increased by de-disenfranchising the Aborigines.
Very few NT Aborigines in 1922 were in sufficient contact with white society for the franchise to have meant anything to them. Their votes would have been cast for them by the station owners.
Sorry, the parenthetical statements should be 5th? and 7th? respectively, I think, but the rest still makes sense.
“anyone might win. That’s very helpful.”
Well, only one of the pro-business candidates, but given the gerrymander in operation that’s only marginally more helpful.
The third scenario would seem to have the most number of pathways, so seems most likely. It’s not at all improbable that Bandt could garner enough preferences along the way to finish something like 40-60 runner-up to Doyle, which would be a fantastic performance for the Greens, but of course it would suit most Bandt supporters’ preferences to have his vote distrubted earlier in the count to push Singer over the line.
It’s a paradox in preferential voting.
I was thinking more in 1948.
Ok. Back on line. time to reflect on days events.
How can someone win on 10% of the vote (Well it is 11% actually and it not clear of it is Singer or Ng on the hunt. It is close by all accounts which is why we believe there will be a recount. There is a huge unknown factor with the drift away from the book at around 40% or more we try and explain how the fold up might go.
The interesting close junctions are Singer/Ng virtually neck to neck at around 11%
The combined vote of Singer and Catherine Ng out polls the Greens in each case.
If Singer survives *** Morgan/Columb votes go to McMullin with drift from Morgan( now 27%) the Greens (now 19-20%) Doyle (29%) Singer 23%. Greens next eliminated bring Singer to the lead above Doyle and McMullin there is a close nexus between Doyle and McMullin exact value unknown due to drift to Doyle from Morgan But again it is close. With a McMullin/Doyle toss up Singer is best position to jump of the line either way
If Ng survives *** Morgan flows to Ng but with some leakage to both Doyle and McMullin. Ng is now on around 26-27% McMullin who is on around 25-26Doyle moves into the front at around 31% the Greens at 18% Greens are eliminated and the drift see McMullin at 33 Doyle 33% and Ng 34% It is potentially very close and the spilt can go either way Ng is in the best position as she collects most of the ticket vote and if she is ahead then the other is eliminated. So it is a question of how goes out and what value the drift is at this stage. No one is prepared to place bets at this stage. Some think it could be decided by a hand full of votes who is excluded and who is not. There is now two major junctions points Ng/Singer and the final three.
To add to the fraustration the VEC failed to undertake a preliminary distribution into primary votes. reason unknown. They did do a manual sort for the city Council above the line which is the same size and effort had they distributed the leadership primary vote and did a manual count we would know the result by 12 noon tomorrow.instead it will take a good 12-14 hours to complete the data-entry and chances are there will be a recount.
The Council has been decided on above the line preferences. The winners are (With Primary vote indicated) Quota 12.5%
Candidate
JETTER, Carl (21.5%)
OKE, Cathy (18.7%)
CLARKE, Peter (9.1%)
LOUEY, Kevin (12.0%)
ONG, Ken (11.4%)
SHANAHAN, Brian (9.9%)
KANIS, Jennifer (10.4%)
(1% diff unknown)
I hope I have my maths right. Again had the VEC undertaken a preliminary primary vote count as had been requested by most candidates the process and results would be much more clear and the process more transparent.
SNIP: No discussion of unverifiable actions by individual public officials allowed – The Management.
Time to reflect on days events.
Question: “How can someone win on 10% of the vote?”
Well it is 11% actually and it not clear if it is Singer or Ng on the hunt. It is close by all accounts which is why we believe there will be a recount. There is a huge unknown factor with the drift away from the book at around 40% or more we try and explain how the fold up might go.
The interesting close junctions are Singer/Ng virtually neck to neck at around 11%
The combined vote of Singer and Catherine Ng out polls the Greens in each case.
If Singer survives *** Morgan/Columb votes go to McMullin with drift from Morgan( now 27%) the Greens (now 19-20%) Doyle (29%) Singer 23%. Greens next eliminated bring Singer to the lead above Doyle and McMullin there is a close nexus between Doyle and McMullin exact value unknown due to drift to Doyle from Morgan But again it is close. With a McMullin/Doyle toss up Singer is best position to jump of the line either way
If Ng survives *** Morgan flows to Ng but with some leakage to both Doyle and McMullin. Ng is now on around 26-27% McMullin who is on around 25-26Doyle moves into the front at around 31% the Greens at 18% Greens are eliminated and the drift see McMullin at 33 Doyle 33% and Ng 34% It is potentially very close and the spilt can go either way Ng is in the best position as she collects most of the ticket vote and if she is ahead then the other is eliminated. So it is a question of how goes out and what value the drift is at this stage. No one is prepared to place bets at this stage. Some think it could be decided by a hand full of votes who is excluded and who is not. There is now two major junctions points Ng/Singer and the final three.
VEC Count under review
To add to the frustration the VEC failed to undertake a preliminary distribution into primary votes. reason unknown. They did do a manual sort for the city Council above the line which is the same size and effort had they distributed the leadership primary vote and did a manual count we would know the result by 12 noon tomorrow.instead it will take a good 12-14 hours to complete the data-entry and chances are there will be a recount.
The Council seven have been decided on above the line preferences.
The winners are (With Primary vote indicated) Quota 12.5%
Candidate (Primary %)
JETTER, Carl (21.5%)
OKE, Cathy (18.7%)
CLARKE, Peter (9.1%)
LOUEY, Kevin (12.0%)
ONG, Ken (11.4%)
SHANAHAN, Brian (9.9%)
KANIS, Jennifer (10.4%)
(1% diff unknown)
I hope I have my maths right.
Again had the VEC undertaken a preliminary primary vote count as had been requested by most candidates the process and results would be much more clear and the count more transparent.
SNIP: No discussion of unverifiable actions by individual public officials allowed. Take it somewhere else, please – The Management.
Apologies for comments that have been held up in moderation.
Want to read the missing trufthful comments go to http://Vexnews.com or http://Melbournecitycouncil.blogspot.com
Th data-entry of preferences is being held in a 10 x 15 met room with 18 data-entry personal crammed in and no room for scrutineers. It is hot and oxygen is in short supply. It is reported that many mistakes in the data entry are being made as a result. FIRst data-set should be avail;able around lunch time. Estimated time to data entry is 14 hours based on the VEC estimate of 15 sec per vote.
Just found this thread now. Good old PB on the case!
Just a general comment: anyone else from Darebin CC find the postal vote election scenario a bit of a downer? No community goes to polls social activity? No handing out HTVs, meet yer local party members action?
In sum: something of a bit of a step en-route to abolishing the whole tedious rigmarole of voting altogether? Havent we got time for democracy? Sorry its such a bother.
William -please remove the first post the least one is correct. The second was posted due to modertation trigger.
I do hope it’s something that doesn’t become more common.
If the Greens win the balance of power in the Legislative Assembly at the next state election then I think that one of their demands will be normalisation (de-rigging) of the Melbourne City Council. Other local government changes on that should be introduced include an increase for the maximum number of councillors from 12 to 15 (which would probably mean that several of the Melbourne councils with 7 councillors would be enlarged to 9 and those with a 2-2-3 combination would become 3×3) and mandating attendance voting at least where this would reduce stooge candidates.
With aprox. 12,000 votes counted in the Lord Mayor race, 8 hours with a further 45,000 to go (It would have been quicker to do a manual count) There will most likely be a recount of the ballot with three very close conjunction points indicated that we were right in our criticism of the way the count was being conducted. The aniticapted error rate is much higher then the possible variance in the count.
Tom WHY WAIT UNTIL 2010. I think the work should start tomorrow. And we need to seriopusly review the way that computerised election counts are conducted also. In a single member elctorate they are not required. BOYS WITH TOYS
I don’t want to hear any more endless whinging about how the VEC counts the votes. I want to hear some RESULTS.
Sorry six hours into the count and they have counted approx 20,000 one third of the way though. Manual count would have taken 7 to 8 hours not 18. Boys with toys
Bayside has just completed a computerised count. A victory for the local Kennett faction Liberals, although they will of course deny it. Kroger faction candidate Russell had a win in the southern ward, having been defeated by Kennett faction members previously in Bayside council contests using single councillor wards. Russell is not well liked, and is pro development, but he got up as he campaigned well.
He didn’t get a quota but he led on first preferences and his running mates (he had at least three) got him up. His presence on Bayside council is probably a good thing as the other councillors may unite against him. He would not have been elected under the former majority preferential system in multi councillor wards nor would he have won any single member ward. A Kennett faction moderate retiring councillor lost in the southern ward to a moderate independent with conservation interests. ALP members left Bayside alone, as they did in most wards in Boroondara. It’s the southern equivalent of Boroondara and its northern end includes Brighton with its million dollar plus real estate. Independent pro-conservationist candidates who are respectable did much better, and probably control almost half of the council.
It would be interesting to know if Simon Russell, just elected in Bayside, is related to Liberal apparatchik Richard Russell who wrote all sorts of comments on the anti-Baillieu blog before it was taken down. Richard Russell bragged about how the Liberals flooded the VEC with submissions for single member wards in Boroondara and Knox and were successful. Unfortunately Richard Russell is correct. Will Simon Russell go along the same path as Richard? Possibly not if he can count. Many Liberals, and also many ALP members, cannot.
Your problem, democracy@work, is that of the blogger who cried wolf. Because you tell us that EVERYTHING the AEC and the VEC do is either corrupt or incompetent or both, we can no longer take any of your allegations seriously, even when you are right, as you may well be sometimes.
In Bendigo both incumbent Greens have been defeated. A clear win to the Liberals with two former parliamentary candidates elected. The ALP in the area is disinterested in local government and the conservative victory this time might cause some reaction from Bob Cameron and Jacinta Allan, the two state members. The ALP almost only won one quota in the upper house region covering Bendigo, with two candidates, Candy Broad and Kaye Darveniza, who live in Melbourne. Might work in western Melbourne with a history of ALP MPs from posh suburbs but it won’t work in the bush.
The ALP in Bendigo should have supported proportional representation for the Greater Bendigo Council. The only alleged ALP sympathiser on Bendigo council, Rod Fyffe who got back unopposed, supports single wards and while this may help his re-election it is not good for the ALP in the area. PR would reduce conservative membership on the local council, it wouldn’t necessarily mean any ALP councillors as bush people don’t like overt political party councillors, but it would make it harder for Libs to use the council as a stepping stone for higher political office. Rod doesn’t see this but hopefully he can be made to change his mind. The Greens also need to get better organised. They lost all thanks to their mistake in not actively supporting PR.
Caroline, but it did work. Labor won two seats in Vic North, Vic East and Vic West, all with non-local candidates. I’m not defending those selections, I’m in favour of local candidates whenever possible, but you can’t argue that the voters rejected them. Very few votes knew or cared who their upper house candidates were – they just voted the pary ticket.
So the interesting point is still the 5th exclusion (after Roberts, Crawford, Toscano and Colomb).
If at that point Ng is ahead of either Singer or Morgan, then she will probably go on to sweep up everyones preferences and win.
However the current figures (with a third of the vote counted) put her slightly behind those two, assuming preferences flow as recommended. In that case the last three candidates will probably be Doyle, McMullin and Bandt, with Doyle ahead and the other two quite close.
If Bandt is excluded his preferences likely elect McMullin, while if McMullin is excluded his preferences certainly elect Doyle.
I can’t believe how slow the VEC is in releasing results.
However, according to my informants, in Glen Eira things seem to be turning out much as I suggested.
The sole Greens candidate, Neil Pilling, has got up in Rosstown ward and Margaret Esakoff and Steven Tang have been returned. Sitting Councillor Rob Spaulding missed out – refusing to do preference deals wouldn’t have helped him.
In Tucker ward Liberal Jamie Hyams returns to council (having been part of the council sacked in 2005). Labor’s Nick Staikos was re-elected and local activist Jim Magee has the third place. Sitting Liberal councillor Henry Buch missed out.
In Camden, local trader Frank Pehalluriack and sitting councillor Michael Lipshutz have been elected but the third place looks close and will depend on preference flows. The residents’ group ticket headed by Peter Blight leads sitting councillor Helen Whiteside on first preferences but she will receive preferences from all other candidates – so it depends on how much leakage flows to Blight.
Adam in Canberra unfortunately non-local candidates imposed on the suffering residents of rural areas by the ALP factional bosses got two up in each of the rural regions, as you correctly suggest.
I was perhaps a little loose with my words. Candy Broad, who was dumped after the election from the cabinet and is responsible for the system of representation reviews and showed little interest in local government, got the first spot because most ALP voters voted above the line. Sensible ones would have voted below the line for Marg Lewis from Castlemaine, a good local candidate who almost beat Damien Drum in 2002. Kaye Darveniza, a union official before her entry into parliament, only got in by a couple of thousand votes.
The factional deal did work, but it almost didn’t. If not it would have meant one ALP from the Northern region, with two Nats and two Libs.
The Bendigo paper ALP advertisement a day or so before the 2006 state election told a lie. It claimed its upper house ticket of three females, Broad, Darveniza and Lewis, was country raised and country focused. This is probably true of Lewis, but it wasn’t true of Melbourne residents Broad and Darveniza.
“Lie” is a strong word to use without checking one’s facts, Caroline.
Candy Broad was born in Perth but grew up on a sheep station in northern WA.
Kaye Darveniza was born in Mooroopna and went to school in Shepparton.
The VEC is half way though the Data entry.. It has taken them 10 hours to process 50% of the vote. They will not get through the job tonight and they estimate of 15 sec per ballot paper or 14 hours x 18 data entry time is BS. Again would have been much quicker to do manually
Early analisys with 27,000 votes counted indicates Robert Doyle is set to scpare home with ALP Peter McMullin comming in second place.
The elcton count is not finalised and the projected results are subject to final analysis. There are two very close conjuntions between Catheriun Ng and Gary Singer, Catherine Ng and the Greens with less the 100 votes difference between the the two. if teh Greens survive its a McMullin Doyle toss with Doyle winning.If Ng survies its still Doyle. Dpoyle looks unbeatable have caught all the drift.
Inverse doney vote or well known name. A recount is looking more and more less likely as the count progresses. The only chance of a surpise win is if Singer and out poll Ng but with a gap of 600 votes this is unlikely.
Adam BS, you obviously have no idea. Get back to trying helping David Feeney and stop defdining the undefensible.
I do think that those council reforms I mentioned should be done a.s.a.p. but I think that they will have to wait until the Greens have the balance of power in the Legislative Assembly (which may well not happen after the next election) because I do not see the current Labor government changing things (except maybe the 12 councillor limit to 15) unless the rigging of the City of Melbourne becomes an issue before the next state election in the District of Melbourne.
Adam “lie” may be a bit strong but misleading isn’t. Broad and Darveniza lived in Melbourne at the time of their preselection. How could they be country focused? Broad lives in Brunswick but claims her address as Macedon which is within commuting distance of Melbourne. Her region extends to Mildura. Darveniza rented a flat in Shepparton so she could claim she lived in her region on the ballot paper. As in Italy the place of residence of candidates is placed on Legislative Council ballot papers in Victoria. Good idea. Only most interloper candiates did as they were told by Andrew Landeryou on his old OC blog and at least rented a flat in their regions so they could claim to live there. I don’t care where MLCs live as long as they are competent and represent the people of their regions. Landeryou is like the Truth, or News Weekly. No one admits to reading it but most people in politics seem to know what is in it. Andrew Landeryou is a great source of information.
democracy@work, it’s true that I usually have no idea what you are talking about, and I am far from being Robinson Crusoe in that respect. Was your comment intended as a reply to my criticism of your paranoid ravings about the AEC/VEC, or was it directed at my discussion with Caroline Church about the country credentials of Broad and Darveniza?
Caroline, you described as a “lie” an ALP ad which said that Broad and Darveniza were “country raised and country focussed” (I haven’t seen the ad, but I will take your word for it.) I have demonstrated that they were both country raised, so that half of the statement was factual. Whether they were “country focussed” is entirely a matter of opinion. Since they were candidates for a country seat, I think they would have been very foolish not to be “country focussed.” As I said above, I am not defending these preselections. I think local candidates should have been selected. But you go a claim too far in calling people liars.
Dod Marg Lewis lose in 2002 because Labor ran dead in Mildura to assist Russell Savage? Would Labor have won 3/5 in Western Victoria in 2006 with Carbines at number 1?
You full of it Adam. You and TT having an affair?
With 50% of the vote counted Doyle looks unstoppable. He picks up a significant drift in what’s called the inverse donkey vote.
There is an inbuilt bias in the data set ( the order in whcih the ballot paers where recived and collatted). The results could swing back to being closer. But all analysis of the data available shows that in all circumstances Doyle crosses the line
Doyle greens received the top end of expectations and the rest at the bottom end. Assuming that the bias/order in the count is based on the order in which they are received I would expect that Doyle would lose some ground as the campaigns developed or in the case of Doyle did not happen.
DOYLE, Robert / RILEY, Susan 8672 26.76%
NG, Catherine / MAKINGS, Terry 3561 10.99%
TOSCANO, Joseph / ELY, Margaret 495 1.53%
COLUMB, Nick / CALDWELL, Sue 1524 4.70%
BANDT, Adam / MALTZAHN, Kathleen 4799 14.81%
CRAWFORD, Robert King / KENNEDY, Michael 391 1.21%
ROBERTS, Shelley / FARAH, Abdiaziz 391 1.21%
SINGER, Gary / PAINTER, Joanne 3314 10.23%
FOWLES, Will / WILSON, David 2750 8.49%
McMULLIN, Peter / WILSON, Tim 4035 12.45%
MORGAN, Gary / ANDERSON, Michele 2473 7.63%
Total 32,405 100.00%
Group Stats
group_name Total Vote Percentage
DOYLE 8672 26.76%
Singer/NG 6875 21.22%
Fowl/McMullin 6785 20.94%
GREENS 4799 14.81%
Column/Morgan 3997 12.33%
Others 1277 3.94%
Fortunately I don’t know who TT is. Whoever they are, they couldn’t be worse than the neo-Stalinist despot and murderer Putin, to whose interests you are so devoted.
Caroline Church: I do not blame Candy Broad. The system was put in place by Bob Cameron. The real culprit in the Representation review mosaic is TT/ST and the VEC.
They applied an inconsistent assessment, analysis and review in drafting the recommendations. The State Government having but them in charge of the review had to accept their recommendations.To do otherwise would have been seen as interference.Although it would appear that Hobson Bay may have been involved some political influence. This was Steve Bracks seat,. There the VEC recommended single member wards yet in Stonington.
Someone who has stated here that Russia under Putin is a functioning democracy and who has supported Russia’s clumsy attempts to destroy democracy in Ukraine really has no right to be taken seriously on these matters at all.
Lord mayoralty count with 50 per cent reported here.
Viva Doyle!
This is actually quite a good result for Labor. McMullin and Fowles between them have polled respectably, given the dominance of the non-resident vote in MCC elections and the competition from Bandt and Singer for the generally lefty residents of the MCC area. Bracks and Doyle get on very well, and Doyle will work happily with the government. On the other hand Doyle and Baillieu loathe each other, so the state Libs get nothing from the election at all. I don’t know what Glen is so pleased about.
oops Bracks = Brumby.
Point made Adam in Canberra. I did go a little too far calling the ALP ad “lies.” I hope you accept my clarification. I agree the second half of my statement is a matter of opinion. I am pleased we both agree it would have been better for candidates with more in common with their region to have been preselected.
A previous comment says the ALP vote dropped because the ALP ran dead in Mildura to protect Savage. This is partly true but the proposal to build a toxic waste dump was the Labor Party being as dirty to Savage as it was to David Risstrom by preferencing Family First ahead of the Greens. Others will take this as a warning. Support an ALP government at your peril. The ALP may backstab you like it did Savage and Risstrom. Also the ALP never came good on its promise to re-commence passenger rail services to Mildura. This also cost Savage votes. Savage won the seat initially because Kennett ended Mildura passenger services. There is still no passenger train between Melbourne and Mildura.
I just like seeing a Liberal winning for once Adam it has happened rarely since 2007…also i dont like Baillieu.
Caroline: first paragraph, fair enough. Matter ended.
Second paragraph: Oooh, now you’ve got me going. It wasn’t a “dump”, it was (or would have been) an extremely secure, state of the art, waste management facility. This material has to go somewhere, and it was far better to put it at a modern, purpose-built site in the Mallee, where the human population within a 10km radius was ZERO, than in its current substandard facility near Dandenong, where the human population within a 10km radius is about a million. This material, dumped by past governments and private industry without proper safeguards, is currently leaching toxins into the groundwater of south-eastern Melbourne. Thwaites’s decision to abandon the Mallee site in the face of totally predictable nimbyism from Mildura was totally gutless and a betrayal of Labor voters in the workingclass suburbs.
Based on that it is the weakness of the preference flows from Singer and Morgan that have stymied Ng. At most 50% of Morgan’s voters appeared to have followed his recommendation.
I don’t think Doyle regards himself as a Liberal anymore. He didn’t run as one. He was extremely dirty on the state Liberal Party when he left Parliament. But Glen, I will not begrudge you some small crumbs of consolation as you wander in the political desert.
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