Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

ACNielsen and Galaxy: 55-45

The latest federal ACNielsen poll, published in today’s Fairfax broadsheets, has Labor’s two-party lead down to 55-45 from 56-44 last month. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down four points to 51 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 35 per cent, while Kevin Rudd is more or less steady on 70 per cent and 22 per cent. Also included are questions on the government’s economic management (positive) and expectations about the economy (surprisingly optimistic).

UPDATE: Galaxy has also produced a poll showing Labor leading 55-45. The poll has Labor on 43 per cent of the primary vote, the Coalition on 40 per cent and the Greens on 11 per cent. No mention of a sample size that I can see, but in Galaxy’s case it’s usually about 800 (UPDATE: It’s 1004 for Galaxy, 1400 for ACNielsen).

UPDATE 2: A surprise from Essential Research: they too have Labor’s lead at 55-45 in their weekly survey. This is down from 59-41 last week, and as far as I’m aware is the closest result they have thus far produced. Also featured are questions on which party is deemed best to handle various issues (huge leads to Labor on climate change, environment and industrial relations, narrow ones to Liberal on inflation, national security and economic management) and the car manufacturing industry assistance package (47 per cent approve, 35 per cent disapprove).

1,045 Comments

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  1. 801
    fredn
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    Adam
    You need o be a little bit careful with NZ it gets a mention in our constitution. The way I read it they can become a state and there is little Australia could do to stop them.

  2. 802
    Socrates
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 10:00 am | Permalink

    I just posted on the US thread some links about the US economic situation. It is looking pretty dire for GM, Ford and Chrysler. This is not necessarily a disaster for their Oz operations, which could be sold and taken over by more competitive makers. Indeed, if someone like Honda took over one and started making economical cars here, it wouldn’t be a bad thing.

    However there is one obvious consequence of this – with all due respect to Kym Carr, the government should be very cautious in actually handing money over to Holden or Ford right now. We don’t want to be in the situation of a german Bank, or Lehamns UK, which were looted by the New York parents for billions shortly before going bust.

  3. 803
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    fredn, on my reading New Zealand isn’t an original state as defined in s 6 so for a new state to be added to the Commonwealth there would need to be parliamentary approval (under s 121). Your statement that there’s nothing Australia could do to stop them isn’t really correct.

    All of which is not really worth commenting on as New Zealand would never want to become a state of Australia in any case.

  4. 804
    Hugo
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    And indeed, would we want them?

  5. 805
    Listy
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 10:24 am | Permalink

    well, at least it still rains in NZ :)

  6. 806
    Oz
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 10:28 am | Permalink

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AI11B20081119

    Dunno if some already posted this.

    Cheney and Gonzales indicted by a Texas grand jury for “organized criminal activity” related to alleged abuse of inmates in private prisons.

  7. 807
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Boerwar,

    Just did a quick bit of research and found that in some states in the US it costs as much as $69,000 per year to house each prisoner.

    With a prison population of 1 in 100 of the general population, no wonder the US economy is so bad.

    Australia,

    Under this method of calculation, South Australia's cost per prisoner has reduced from $64000 in 1992-93 to $37854 in the last financial year.

    Great Brittan,

    Mr. Hanson: In 2006-07 the average resource cost per prisoner was £37500.

    Certainly this seems to be extraordinary sums of money spent on incarceration, especially when you take into consideration the cost of indicting and the trial process.

    The amount spent on rehabilitation is minuscule in comparison.

  8. 808
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    Yes, but try and explain that to victims of crime or people scared such crimes will be committed to them. That type of logic doesn’t hold much sway with those people.

    All it would take is for one serious crime to be committed by someone released under a lighter penal system and the critics would feel vindicated and the media would have a field day. It’s not going to happen.

  9. 809
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:02 am | Permalink

    I would much rather my tax dollars be spent in rehabilitating suitable offenders than have them institutionalized in a university of crime as well as alienating them from society and becoming resentful of that society and wanting to hit back at it. Which is what is happening presently.

  10. 810
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:16 am | Permalink

    An interesting take on it from the NZ Hansard.

    Does he consider a reimprisonment rate of 37 percent after 24 months a satisfactory outcome, with each prisoner costing the New Zealand taxpayer almost $77,000 each year; if not, what is this Government doing to lower it?

    REPLY;

    No. However, the average cost per prisoner for 2004-05 was $59,000 and that cost to the country is too high. The Government has reviewed rehabilitation programmes, and we are implementing more intensive and better targeted programmes that include an increased emphasis on drug and alcohol treatment.

    And this on “Privatisation” of Prisons.

    The Government is currently looking at all aspects of the justice system, including corrections. Privatisation of prisons is not one of those areas. Our experience is that it is cheaper to house prisoners in a State-run system than it was in the one private facility we had in Auckland—cheaper by $10,000 per year.

    And this on rehabilitation, which Australian Authorities might pay to have a look at. This under a “Labour” Government too. The Nationals will probably unwind the progress made in search of a few votes.

    Many. On 1 May I launched an extensive work employment strategy for prisoners that over the next 3 years will boost employment hours and lift the number of New Zealand Qualifications Authority units attained from 4,800 to 16,000. We have case managers and work brokers working in every prison. We have reintegration case workers. We are boosting the accommodation support beyond the sentence, and we are committed to two new drug and alcohol units before the end of this financial year.

    http://theyworkforyou.co.nz/portfolios/corrections/2006/jul/18/prisoners

  11. 811
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    SMACK:

    I think it is a timely reminder for this House and the people of New Zealand that the National Party is determined to privatise every single thing it can get its hands on.

    Reminds me of something.

  12. 812
    Judith Barnes
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:20 am | Permalink

    they still hav’nt learned anything, what a bunch of pratts.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24678507-5013948,00.html

  13. 813
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:22 am | Permalink

    Apparently it’s not all bad here!

    We are happy to look at any idea that might improve the management of our prisons in this country. We look on a regular basis around the world for international best practice. One of the lessons we have learnt from Australia is that a private prison establishment has been taken over by the State again because in Australia they believe that the State system can run some of those establishments better—as we, indeed, did ourselves.

    http://theyworkforyou.co.nz/portfolios/corrections/2006/jul/18/prisoners

  14. 814
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:25 am | Permalink

    Hopefully, Obama will reverse this injustice.

    FORMER Guantanamo Bay inmate David Hicks has broken his silence, saying a court-imposed control order makes it hard for him to get on with his life.
    The convicted terrorism supporter says he is very worried that the controversial control order obtained by the Australian Federal Police (AFP) to restrict his activities may be extended.

    The one-year order, which expires in December, is only the second such order placed on an Australian citizen.

    "I'm concerned that the AFP will recommend the attorney-general impose a new control order,'' Hicks says in a video seen by Australian Associated Press.

    The control order was imposed on Hicks after he was freed from jail last December and revised in February.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24679282-12377,00.html

  15. 815
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:28 am | Permalink

    Judith Barnes @ 812,

    You couldn’t expect much different from that waste of space, Helen Coonan, could you?

  16. 816
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:32 am | Permalink

    That argument is so poor, it is almost beyond stupid.

    because the then senator had not made it clear he was against terrorism at the time the comments were made.

    That could mean that because he had not made it clear that he was against pedophilia or pretty well any other such thing, that he might actually be in favour of it!

    Bah humbug! What a mob of clowns.

  17. 817
    dovif
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    Socrates

    I agree totally GM, Ford and Crysler are 3 of the worst run motor companies in the world. They have been made obsolete by the Japanese. The companies have been run the same way for the last 40 years, they have been left behind by technology.

    If you look at the power, fuel consumption ratio, manoeuvrability and cost, they lags significantly behind the Japanese.

    It would be a mistake to keep them going in the US, by keeping the tariff on import and giving them millions from the tariff to subsidise them.

    Unless both the companies and the workforce modernises, they will revisit this again in a few years

    What Australia does not want to do is give them $6 billion, so they can continue to subsidise their incompetitive American workforce.

  18. 818
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    I thought Obama had already said he will close Guantanamo:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/17/2421702.htm

  19. 819
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    Hopefully, Obama will reverse this injustice.

    Obama can’t do anything about it. The control order was imposed by a judge at the request of the Australian federal government.

    I don’t have much sympathy for Hicks. Of course his ‘trial’ was a joke, but at the end of the day, he plead guilty to aiding a terrorist organisation.

  20. 820
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    According to Coonan, there must be two Barack Obama’s.

    "He made that very clear in his foreign policy announcements once he was the endorsed candidate, so there is no lingering concern about it

    "It's a very unfortunate comment and it certainly doesn't apply to the current president-elect Obama, who's made his position very clear, and the Coalition is comfortable with that position."

    I can’t remember there being a previous “president-elect Obama”, and I am so glad that the Libs have “no lingering concern about it.”

    They must be trying to see if they can get the 2PP back above 60%. It shouldn’t be too hard the way they are going.

  21. 821
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    Obama can’t do anything about it. The control order was imposed by a judge at the request of the Australian federal government.

    If Obama declares the Tribunal that accepted the plea bargain illegal and unconstitutional as he has indicated, then the Australian Order would have no legal standing either.

  22. 822
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    If Obama declares the Tribunal that accepted the plea bargain illegal and unconstitutional as he has indicated, then the Australian Order would have no legal standing either.

    How can actions of the U.S. government effect control orders imposed by an Australian court under Australian anti-terrorism legislation? That makes absolutely no sense to me. The President of the U.S. has no standing in an Australian court.

    The only way Hicks’ control order will be lifted is if the Australian government either via the AFP or the Attorney General requests it. I doubt that will happen any time soon.

  23. 823
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:50 am | Permalink

    If Obama declares the Tribunal that accepted the plea bargain illegal and unconstitutional as he has indicated, then the Australian Order would have no legal standing either.

    Wasn’t the control order issued by an Australian court?

  24. 824
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    Australia 1/13, Hayden caught at slip.

  25. 825
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    Wasn’t the control order issued by an Australian court?

    Yes. It was probably part of the agreement with the U.S. (You can let him out after 8 months if you put a control order on him). But it was the Australian government that actually did it under Australian laws.

  26. 826
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:53 am | Permalink

    ltep, read 821 again!

  27. 827
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    I wish Coonan would just shut up

  28. 828
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    ltep, if the reason for the control order is no longer applicable because the US has had the Presidential Decrees rescinded that were the reason for that order being applied, then it stands to reason that the order would no longer apply according to Australian law.

    The Order would have to be rescinded!

  29. 829
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    I have re-read it. The legal standing the control order has is that it was issued in a proper way by a court. Obama declaring something or other would not change that in itself.

  30. 830
    Glen
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

    2/22 oh boy

  31. 831
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    3/23

  32. 832
    scorpio
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    ltep, I’ll take a little bet with you.

    When Obama rescinds the Decrees, Hicks’ Lawyers will immediately apply for the Order to be quashed and it will be.

  33. 833
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

    Well that would in part depend on the Australian Government’s position on the matter. It’s not as simple as you’re making it out to be.

  34. 834
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

    There’s just no pleasing some people…

    http://news.smh.com.au/national/pensioners-call-for-boost-in-age-pension-20081120-6c8o.html

  35. 835
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    Ford changes it’s decision and will keep it’s Geelong plant open

    http://news.smh.com.au/national/ford-backflips-on-vic-plant-closure-20081120-6c8f.html

  36. 836
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

    The rally was attended by around 300 pensioners as well as NSW opposition spokesman for ageing Andrew Constance.

    Not much of a crowd, if it was organised by a shock jock however…..

  37. 837
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    Dario@834

    I’m surprised they weren’t naked.

  38. 838
    Socrates
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:41 pm | Permalink

    Surely its obvious that the “pensioner lobby” is just a Liberal front? Howard did very little for pensioners, other than a series of one-off payments, yet we didn’t hear a peep out of these people. Many non-aged pensioners under Howard didn’t even get the one off payments.

  39. 839
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

    I’m surprised they weren’t naked

    Or that Steve Fielding didn’t turn up in a koala suit or something

  40. 840
    Cuppa
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/20/2425038.htm?section=justin

    The Fair Go for Pensioners Coalition is urging the Government to make sure next year's pension reforms deliver an adequate pension over the long-term.

    Which is exactly what the government has committed to doing: make it viable and long-term. (As opposed to the Coalition’s band-aid approach).

    The government has also said that some measures talked about earlier may have to be looked at twice in light of the economic crisis, but the promised pension review is sacrosanct.

    So what is the point of the Pensioners’ Coalition protest?

    Oh, that’s right, it’s the pensioners’ coalition. Attended by NSW opposition spokesman for ageing Andrew Constance. Hmmmm, another coalition beat-up on behalf of they who never seem to get enough.

  41. 841
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

    Magic Tuesday morphs into Magic Wednesday.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/petrol-tuesdays-now-wednesday/2008/11/20/1226770605806.html

    And these jokers still can’t see the sense in Fuelwatch?

  42. 842
    dovif
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

    apart from those “one off” payments

    pension payment was exempt from tax

    Tax threshold got increased substantially, as did tax offset.

    Imputation credit got refunded from investments

    That added to the fact that inflation was low, means that there is not many complains

  43. 843
    dovif
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    Fuel watch LOL

    Name another country that has it? Even the govenment report said there is no prove it works

    Trade practice act would normally deem any law that does not allow a company to change the prices they charge as anti-competitive

    How many times have you been to check out Groscery watch

  44. 844
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

    Dovif your spin won’t convince me. I’ve thought about it and recognise the significant strengths to Fuelwatch. It’s nothing like the Grocery Choice sham. I have no sympathy for the petrol companies, it’s the consumer that I’m interested in.

  45. 845
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    I want to know where the cheapest petrol near me is every day thank you very much

  46. 846
    Cuppa
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

    I want to know that the price quoted on the website will be the price charged when I get there.

  47. 847
    Socrates
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 2:06 pm | Permalink

    Dovif
    None of the Howard measures you mentioned affected the income of pensioners reliant on the pension – which is precisely the point of the current protesters. The main effect was that those with additional income got to keep it. Some already very wealthy self-funded retirees got to claim the pension when they never had it before. Given that their super payments had already been exempted from tax this was an obvious double dip. Meanwhile the imputation credits also applied to non-pensioners, so would have had no impact on the proportion of average incomes that pensioners received. Thus Howard made the pension system less equitable, while not reducing its cost to taxpayers. Yet still no protesters? Again, they are a Liberal front; only someone more senile than themselves would believe a word of it.

  48. 848
    dovif
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

    I want to know where the cheapest petrol NEAR ME is every day thank you very much

    That is the point, most area have very similar prices, and we are not going to drive an hour to get cheaper petrol

    Fuel watch is a bad idea for the following reason
    +A petrol station cannot change their prices for a whole day, ie if I am an independant operator, and no one come to my service station for a whole day I am going to struggle staying competitive.
    +All the caltex/BP etc has to do is incurred losses for a few month and all the independant is out of business, if everyone finds out they are cheapest and do not use the independant ones
    +2 day FM gives out this information for free, why are you not using it! When I was in Melbourne the same happened
    +While a Caltex/BP can report the price for all their petrol stations, all the independant operatior has to report theirs every day
    +I put in petrol when I run out, I normally do not plan on when I run out of petrol

  49. 849
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    dovif, then you should set the cheapest price possible that you think you can trade at.

  50. 850
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, November 20, 2008 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

    Of course all the nonsense about independent retailers is just that. Perth, which has a FuelWatch scheme has the same proportion of independent retailers as other states. The sky has not fallen in.

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