I have written a piece on the Rudd government’s first-year polling record relative to that of the Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke and Howard governments, which is freely available in Crikey. Elsewhere:
• For those with ready access to academic journals, the latest edition of the Australian Journal of Politics and History features a look at the role of the Senate in the Australian political system by Stanley Bach, lately of the Congressional Research Service of the US Library of Congress, and an examination of conscience voting in the federal parliament by John Warhurst of the Australian National University. The Australian Journal of Political Science has an overview of the introduction of proportional representation to the Victorian upper house at the 2006 election, by Nick Economou of Monash University.
• The Victorian Electoral Boundaries Commission has concluded there will be no state redistribution before the 2010 election, at least on the basis of “current information”. The present boundaries have been in place since the 2002 election. Hat tip to Tom the first and best. UPDATE: Further props to Tom for noting below that the determination rests on a definition of a “general election” that does not count the 2002 election, as it was conducted on the pre-reform regime when only half the Legislative Council faced election – perhaps contrary to the drafters’ intention.
• The Western Australian branch of the Australian Democrats has been deregistered after declining to challenge the electoral commissioner’s determination that it did not have 500 members.
322 Comments
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Mark Twain good to see you are still alive and well.
You would have loved the circus in the Queensland Parliament this arvo when two National Party members forgot they were canefarmers and had to be reminded they were before they sheepishly made the admission they should have made before they began speaking. One was the Member for Burdekin, Rosemary Menkens, the other the Member for Mirani, Ted Malone.
It seems the main role of the Liberal National Party in Queensland is to ensure that NSW Labor is not the only basket case of a political party in the country.
How can they justify no redistribution when the number of inner city constituents has increased significantly since the last redistribution? There was even talk of bring back St Kilda electorate. William do you have a copy of the changes in demograhic data?
“general election” Victoria now has fixed terms and the definition of “general election” is clearly defined.(Prior to 2006 it did not) It will always be held in November of the relevant year. Any election outside that time frame would have to be an extrordinary election. Difficlut to see under what circumstances such election can be held. Remember the Upperhouse no longer has the authority to block supply and the Governor is limited to taking advice from the government.
Broadly, the EBC must conduct a
redivision if there have been two general elections since
the previous redivision, or if the enrolments for a certain
number of electorates have fallen outside a 10% tolerance in
the period 18 to 24 months before the next scheduled
State election.
The last redivision of both Houses of Parliament was in
2000-01, and there have been two State elections since
then (in 2002 and 2006). However, the 2006 State election
was the only general election (defi ned in the Act as an
election at which all the members of both Houses are
elected). Therefore, the EBC determined that the “two
general election” triggers for a redivision did not apply.
This is highly questionable as surely the 2002 election was also a general election. the report is also noted for its lack of detail and statistics on each of the electorates and the projected changes in enrollment. A quick look at the commitee membership explains all.
Little to no confidence there.
Harrumph. More casting of aspirations, Steve. Lest we forget the Tasmanians?
The population projections (see the link about the VEBC above originally provided by me) predict that not enough electorates will have variations from +/-10% and +/-20% to trigger a redistribution without two “general elections” having occurred (To make democracy@work even more annoyed Mr Tully is on the VEBC because he is electoral commissioner).
If the Parliament of Victoria was dissolved early (because of a loss of confidence in the government and no suitable new government being formed) it would reset the election timetable and elections would not revert to the last Saturday in November in the even year between the leap years.
MT, Have you written any more books lately or still slaving away as a scribe?
That’s the thing, D@W – they have determined that 2002 was not a general election, because only half the Legislative Council was elected.
Still scribing, Steve. My book production venture ceased in 1910.
That’s a pity, MT I’ve got a book at home so similar to your writing style it is uncanny.
MT @ 150
From a taxonomic perspective you may wish to consider allocating N. reesii to the Order of ‘f*sh’, bearing in mind that reverse anthropomorphism is banned on this site. Anthropomorphism itself has yet to be tested. For example it is clear that we are not allowed to say, ‘H*w*rd is a r*t’. But we have yet to test William’s response to, ‘That r*t is just like H*w*rd’. As I have noted before, I have not been tempted by either approach to a Coalition bestiary, because r*ts are sociable, clean-living creatures who do not eat their young.
I suggest the Order of f*sh because many species of f*sh have the ability to change gender when they reach a certain age, or size, or status in the school); as in, ‘X was a p—-; X is now a c—’.
Well Victoria has never had a full legislative council election. No in my life time. In fact there was never provison for a full LC council election, only half. Where is the link on the population distribution. I was discussing this issue with a well informed polly last month and they assured me that inner Melbourne was due for a redistibution as Albert Park and Melbourne had gown so much that there was justification to reinstate St Kilda.
That is until 2006.
Scoprio 131
Its a really good point you raise about the ex-pats coming back home. The US ones are likely to return in even larger numbers. This will put pressure on infrastructure and housing supply in our major cities. We can slow down the immigration rate but we can’t stop our own people returning.
Steve, that book would be A John Laws limited edition: combining John Laws’ Book of Irreverent Logic and John Laws’ Book of Uncommon Sense (A selection of readings and writings of Australia’s legendary broadcaster, iconoclast, social observer and wit) by John Laws? Am I right? I can give you a taste, if you insist.
No Victorian redistribution before 2010! that means one will ne to be held niot long after that for not only is their a misbalance in the inner city but also the urban fringe.
The idea of bring back a seat called St Kilda could be Interesting, only problem where would the rest of Albert Park go, unless it was abolished and a new seat including South Yarra was created or maybe the VEC will push Melbourne south of the Yarra to include all that lay within the city of Melbourne.
A seat just focused on St Kilda, Balacavia, Elwood and St Kilda East would be an ALP Vs Green battle.
The VEC may settle to move more of Elwood into Brighton.
I am surprised the democrats still have 500 memebrs in Victoria let alone any other state. Will they soon be deregistered in other states?
Dear Mr/Ms Southern-African Colonial Military Engagement of the fin de siecle period,
Mr Baggins may not allow “J*hn H*ward is a Myxine glutinosa“, but he should.
Twain
Albert Park and St Kilda existed alongside Prahran and Melbourne. I would love it if someone can provide a link to the Commissions statistics. I assume they have published the data they have relied on. Personally I am all for a 75 member lower house and a 5 x 9 or 5 x 7 upper house (15 lower to one electorate/province). For some reason the VEC did not consider this model when they were drafting options ofr reform. ( I know why) Dividing the State into five upper-house electorates was relatively simple and effective. Using the Hume corridor as a natural boundary you had two rural and three urban electorates.
MT, I just hope don’t ever get an inclination to study the life of the Parrot.
Socrates @ 164,
Quite possibly a number of younger ones will move back to their old bedrooms at mum & dad’s.
If a considerable number move back, it could make a bit of a mess of the unemployment figures if they have difficulty in finding employment here too.
In areas of skill shortages though, they could expect to be offered increased renumeration by their current employers so some will benefit by staying put.
Quite an interesting quandary though for the Australian situation because so many were employed in the financial area in GB and the jobs here are drying up as well.
Anyone watching Lateline?
Tony Jones is extremely bemused with Joe Hockey’s response.
He asked him “Do you agree with Wayne Swan’s argument that things have changed, especially considering that over the last 3 weeks a number of countries have gone into recession, including Japan and the entire EU?”
“Not at all Tony.”
Scorpio
The ex-pats aren’t all backpackers in their early 20s. There are several hundred thousand adults 25 to 40 involved, and I can’t see them taking a room at mum and dads. Unemployment will be an issue, but given our rate is under 5%, the UK is 5.8% and the US is already heading towards 7% I would think that will be a pressure pushing more people to return than stay abroad. as for skill shortages, they apply here too. Lots of expat teachers, nurses, engineers or even tradesmen could all get jobs here tomorrow.
He’s not the only one
Hockey’s just stumbling all over the place. Saying Rudd is taking us into deficit without a plan… must be news to Kev seeing as we haven’t gone actually into deficit. It’s all bluster from the big man.
I’m looking forward to the debate, if the budget does go into deficit, where the government puts to the libs what measures they will refuse. I can see the line, do you want a deficit or a recession?
Yeah, the interview was good, Tony came straight out of the blocks.
Can someone please answer this question? I’m a bit uneducated about this stuff – missed the last lot of evil Labor deficits.
When the Government goes into deficit and borrows, who does it borrow from? I know some countries borrow from the IMF but they’re a bit poor. Do they borrow from other countries? Or from the banks?
If the Government borrows money from the banks doesn’t that sort of make a mockery of the deposit guarantee? Since they’ll be guaranteeing the banks with money that they’ll be borrowing from the banks?
Oz @ 176,
Usually they just issue Government Bonds which are taken up by institutional investors and larger private investors, usually domestic.
Or they can do what the US are presently. Both issuing Bonds and printing more money. The Chinese have purchased around 2 trillion $ US so far.
Oz
Governments can borrow by issuing bonds (promises of future repayment with a premium). Or they can borrow internationally. In fact, government borrowing used to be one of the main mechanisms by which governments influenced interest rates.
Yup, what scorpio & Socrates said. The bonds are normally issued by the Reserve Bank.
Just watching Lateline in Adelaide now and yes Tony really had his examples lined up to question Joe Hockey on who wasn’t planning to go into deficit to fund a stimulus. This is why Rudd should have just said they might go into deficit! Everyone else is anyway. If the coalition says we shouldn’t they just look silly. Would they prefer higher unemployment? Higher taxes? Cuts to hospitals? ROTFL
Thanks for that!
Keatings well publicised $96b debt was in Bonds. For all the bluster etc by the previous Government, they still retained around $53b in Government Bonds.
It is imperative that investors, especially institutional investors to be able to access these Bonds as they are “secure” investments but usually pay a lower dividend in better times than shares and other instruments.
For the recreation of a St Kilda district to help the over population of Melbourne it would have to cross the Yarra which I think unlikely to happen.
Thats not a deficit, this is a deficit.
For those who complain about the ABC stuffing things up when reporting – here is their “Corrections and Clarifications” page.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/corrections/
Krugman discusses the US economy and the various plans.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/25/krugman-talks-about-his-o_n_146558.html
MT @ 168
LOL. Beautiful. But, fair’s fair (sic). I believe Hyac*th would have first dibs.
TP @ 184
Yep, and that is not even counting the black hole!
The $US 3 000 000 000 000 (how many noughts does a trillion have, exactly?) or so that the Iraq War is reputed to be costing might have come in handy right now. It won’t be the first time that an empire has been brought to its knees by silly old warmongering.
I have a question for the economic literati hereabouts:
In the olden days (when money was more or less tied to the value of silver and/or gold) countries in strife mucked around with the the coinage by increasing the base metal proportion of silver and/or gold coins. The coinage was debased, inflation rose and it Was No Good for the Economy.
Is there some sort of threshold for borrowing, or bond selling, which essentially equates to the old-fashioned debasing the coinage?
Frank @ 185
Good as far as it goes, and would be good to see the rest of the MSM adopt this as a minimum standard. It does not address the fact that you can vary the taste of the stew considerably without spilling any of the ingredients.
Dio,
Replacement for Hillary in the Senate?
…..
http://tinyurl.com/6×2kuy
democracy@work@167
From what I’ve heard, the Democrats still have over the magic 500 members in Victoria and NSW. In SA they have an MP so they automatically still qualify as a party (although I think they should not be neglecting membership numbers there!). Not registered in Tas, ACT or WA. I think the WA Democrats could’ve made it if they had tried, but for various reasons they decided not to proceed. I guess QLD is the next in danger of de-registration. Ironically NSW is the strongest division apparently since it has been without a senator since 2004 and has built up a membership base sufficient to carry it forward without dependence on a political staff.
From my point of view, the party is making the transition from a parliamentary party to a more democratic member-driven party. A lot of people in the party who joined it for the parliamentary career path will be unhappy but it’s kind of exciting in its own micro-party way.
Here’s my deluded wishful thinking: I think membership numbers will bottom out early next year and then slowly begin to rebuild as the new structure attracts new people.
Boerwar @ 190 -
Is there some sort of threshold for borrowing, or bond selling, which essentially equates to the old-fashioned debasing the coinage?
No, because you’re borrowing existing money, not creating more.
It’s when you set the printing presses running to create new money that isn’t backed by an increase in wealth that things go astray. That’s when people start needing wheelbarrow loads of cash to buy a loaf of bread, as the poor billionaires of Zimbabwe can testify.
heh, what if it was an increase in pensions that put the Budget into deficit, would Uturnbull oppose it?
Oz
To prove your point as completely false. And you do not have a bloom
a. we had surpluses from 1999, 6 years before the “China” resources bloom
b. the bloom was first driven by housing, ie the $7k and $14k grant, not great policy, but there to drive down unemployment, and creat business post 9-11
To drive the bloom, Howard did the following
a. make it easier for employers to employ workers, so unemployment went down and GDP went up, taxes went up, as did wages
b. decrease taxes, so business want to employ workers, so unemployment went down and GDP went up, taxes went up, as did wages
c. attract skills migrants to Australia, to ease skills shortage
d. drop tax on superannuation, increase superannuation fund investment, creates new business, so unemployment went down and GDP went up, taxes went up, as did wages
e. reduce taxes to 0 on Australian company investing overseas, increasing the amount of company calling Australia home, and increasing investment of Australian company – ie bring wealth into Australia
So many people here really do not have a clue about Economics, it is unbelievable
Oz said
so what did Kevin Rudd cut …… apart from health, NOTHING!!!!!!!!
What? Rudd hasn’t “cut” anything in health. What he has cut is fat out of government departments (See the very recent IT stuff, winding back on contractors) and he’s cut sad, vote-grabbing handouts. They’re just two off the top of my head.
LOL, you are easily fooled, Rudd cut government department, so he can get Howard cronnies out and later employ his own, start looking for union officials to appear
Vote grabbing handouts, please name 1? He had not announce it in the budget
He has definitely cut health spending, the Howard government had these 2 policy.
1 Medicare surcharge, ie if you are earning lots of money, you are forced into superannuation funds or you have to pay the surcharge
2 Health fund rebate, for every $1 you spend on health fund cover, the government pays 30c
This allows the govenment to fund the private sector of health, so that the public system is not under too much stress
If we raises the medicare surcharge and people drop out of the private health insurance, the government will no longer have to pay as much in the health fund rebate ….. these people rejoins the public system …. ie increasing the stress on the underfunded (by the states) public systems
The increase of surcharge threshold is Rudd reducing current funding into Health, leaving a hole in future for the state governemnts
Bronwyn Bishop has butted in to proceedings in the House first up and moved that Anthony Albanese be suspended. Normally about 20 minutes is wasted going through two or three divisions before the published order of business begins, but this one was dealt with in one division (defeated of course). This sort of mischief is common on Thursdays for both LNP and ALP oppositions.
I don’t understand the rules that determine when members can hijack proceedings like this. When it does happen there is usually a motion from the government that “the member be no longer heard” to shut him/her up, after which normal business resumes, but what’s to stop another opposition member then piping up instead?
What the hell? The resources boom did not begin in 2005.
He decreased taxes so taxes went up. Well played.
No, his deregulation of the employment market actually drove down wages.
The skills bottleneck in Australia under the Howard government was pretty much the worst it had ever been. We’re currently short of 30,000 engineers.
If by “many people” you mean dovif, then yes, it is unbelievable.
No, he kept Howard appointees. Please don’t make up blatant lies.
The baby bonus.
No, he hasn’t. At this weeks Coag meeting he’s set to increase health funding 66% more than the last government and that’s on top of the billions he’s given to boost it since the election.
I think you should read that sentence back and realise how pathetic Howard’s health policy was. Especially if it was geared around “government funding the private sector”. That worked brilliant for ABC, no?
Methinks dovif needs to take a long hard look at the facts before putting fingers to the keyboard. There’s either an awful lot of ignorance or just plain misrepresentation coming from his/her fingers on the keyboard.
Dovif
I wonder why you even bother? The last election proved that even the punters who aren’t political tragics (like we who inhabit this blog
), saw through all that spin from the Howard government. They registered that there had been a (lucky) boom, that a lot of the cash had been blown, and that genuine long term investment had declined. They realised that they were starting to pay for it in terms of higher interest rates. That battle is past, and lost. Move on to a fight you might win.
Howards economic critics weren’t just ALP supporters. They included the OECD, World Bank and a lot of senior economists. Even the Business Council of Australia (usually a Liberal Party cheer squad) expressed concern over the lack of infrastructure and skills investment back in the 2004 election campaign. Howard was a cynical populist who would sell the future for a single extra vote. He was good at it, but it caught up with him in the end.
So lets move on. The question now is how to fix the current mess. Most serious economists agree that will require a stimulus that might push the budget into deficit for a year or two. So be it. Or, we can believe Malcom Turnbull and stay in surplus, while accepting recession, higher unemployment and lower wages. Option 1 please.
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