Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (which gets its own thread in Newspoll off-weeks when there’s no Galaxy poll on the Sunday) has Labor recovering from an unheralded dip over the past fortnight, its two-party lead increasing from 56-44 to 58-42. Also featured are questions on leadership preference, which find Julia Gillard favoured over Malcolm Turnbull 39 per cent to 34 per cent and Kevin Rudd favoured over Gillard 63 per cent to 14 per cent, and expectations regarding the economy.

UPDATE (2/12/08): Today’s Courier-Mail provides further figures from yesterday’s Galaxy poll of 800 voters in Queensland, showing 38 per cent would like to go back to John Howard and Peter Costello, against 54 per cent preferring Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan.

706 Comments

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  1. 501
    Oz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    New airport at Canberra or Newcastle with high-speed rail connecting it to Sydney. Two birds with one stone.

  2. 502
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Turnbull thinks Julia is “nasty”

    "But she is very vicious and insulting towards Julie Bishop in the house. I think it’s demeaning of the house and I think it’s really inappropriate for the Deputy Prime Minister behaving in that vicious way.'

    Diddums…

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24745160-601,00.html

  3. 503
    triton
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    Julia gave the coalition a good bashing over schools. This could become a stand-off with each side blaming the other for withholding funding. The trouble is that the coalition doesn’t have the support of schools, or anyone.

  4. 504
    Ron
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    “faith” Diog

    “3. Anti-terror laws. Howie takes the blame for them..
    4. Hicks. Pretty weak by Howard not to get him out earlier but hardly a hanging offence.
    5. Refugees and asylum seekers is really the only serious abuse by Howard ”

    Yesterday you confessed & professed “faith” over science , making you sort of a ‘faith athiest’ Today th libertarian rules your roosts , and yet i do not understand this libertarian brand

    Now Socrates I agree with in principal on a rights laws , court defended on precedent We ‘oz’ hav survived (reasonably) without a bill of rights reely because we ar a fair go society & egalatarien whereas other Nations with different cultures hav had massive abuses But still we hav had regretable instanses of standards ‘conventions’ flouted , and badly , So socrates is right to say they need codifying

    However as a strong opponent here of what i call laissez fair (extreme) libertariarism (like I’d block 100% of this internet porn stuff) , my suport for Socrates is with a little tredidation of how far is far enough for th vocal minority of laissez faire Libertarians who’d twist socrates principal Furthermores I do NOT want to line pockets of those Lawyers either , thems self creating ‘cases’ on ‘rights’ to line there silky pockets

    So i return diog , to your 3 examples:

    With refugees you call Howard policy abuse of ‘rights’ Well i actualy suport Howards overall policy on National security grounds for th “RIGHTS” of th 20 million living here (for reasons previousley listed) IF you were referring to there subsequent humanitarian treatment , yes agree , there ‘rights’ of living conditions should hav been better looked after & with appeal process when not ass opposed to th right to just jump Darfur queues just cause there boat got here whilst Darfur groups hav no water to put boats onto (if they were strong enough lacking food)

    With Hicks you say “hardly a hanging offence.” Well I do call it a hanging offense It was a gross misabuse of his human rights (for 5 years) ditto Habbib (a hanging offense) , ditto (Haneef) , ditto Muslim Jack , hell i’m more libertarian than you on these A proper Bill would hav outlawed such ‘rights’ abuse

    With Anti-terror laws , you blame Howard I don’t Liberty & National Security comes at a price of some freedoms in reality , otherwise soon or later those terrorists etc will take more than your freedoms Principals of those Terorist Laws ar for all our protection and ar fine to where they go…problam i see with them is not going far enough on ‘rights’ & govenrance issues……lack of both oversite and full independant accountability to prevent abuse and/or reverse abuse quick when found (need Judges lots , not politcans in control of admin to keep Keltys not crossing lines…but not to stop him protecting us)

    Now we hav so many areas of rights , disabled , ethnic , religous (suppose I’ll include athiests in there as well)…so i’d like to see these ‘rights’ in stone , but first writen by lay persons before pollies and lawyers get involved , and without th laissez faire libertarians minority or over state control brigade pushing there agendas My preferense is for detail to prevent ‘interpretation’ to minimise legol eagles earning money from it And in perfect world th agreed ‘rights” passed by referendumS (so if one rights item gets defeated it doesn’t cause all rights items to go down th sinks) Just need to find people without Agendas or politcal conflicts who hav comonsense…and that ‘faith’

  5. 505
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    You could always convert RAAF Richmond into an international airport. Its runways would need to be lengthened a little.....

    Isn’t that THE runway. From memory there are geographical restrictions on what re-development is possible. Doesn’t it also have serious fog issues – more so than at KSIA ?

    No doubt most things can be overcome if you throw enough resources and money at them, but I really wonder why the govt is going with this ? (apart from the impact on albanese’s seat.)

  6. 506
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    gladly – fools – suffer – not …

  7. 507
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    thats “where the govt are going with this…

  8. 508
    Fiz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    The Dishonourable Member for Stirling just asked the Deputy PM:
    “How many Australians will lose their jobs this Christmas?”

    Total lack of decency.

  9. 509
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    Referring to post 502- Gillard, before anyone gets offended,,,

  10. 510
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    Ron
    Philosphically there is no conflict between positions supporting a bill of rights and opposing Libertarianism. Both views place rights of the individual ahead of property rights. I agree they have to be limited and carefully worded and not include wooly stuff like everyone has a right to particular services etc.

  11. 511
    dave
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    - Man douses himself in petrol outside Parliament
    - Restrained by police
    - Seeks visa for Russian parents

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/man-threatens-to-set-self-alight-outside-parliament-20081203-6qby.html

  12. 512
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    Oz 501

    The trouble with those options are:
    - jet airports require huge amounts of space. Adequate space hasn’t been preserved at Newcastle either, till you are half way to the Hunter. then it could be viable, but you woudl still be talking many billions. Hard to justify given all the other badly needed urban rail lines we haven’t funded.
    - Canberra is just too far. The high speed rail would still take an hour at 250 km/hr, and would cost more than the airport. There is no adequate rail corridor either, thanks to NSW Rail’s abysmal lack fo investment. In the mean time you could have flown to Brisbane.

  13. 513
    onimod
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

    488 Oz
    Turnbull (and maybe his mum) probably still think that the reference to Goldman Sachs is a compliment…

  14. 514
    Oz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:27 pm | Permalink

    The high speed rail would still take an hour at 250 km/hr, and would cost more than the airport.

    Regarding cost, I see the rail as being more than simply getting airport travellers to Sydney. A lot of people commute to Canberra from Sydney either by plane and car putting them on a train would be a good move.

    The corridor is a bit of a problem.

    I don’t think it should be anywhere around Sydney. I live in Sydney, I like it, but we have to get over it. It’s pretty much at peak with the way we plan, and we should be planning to develop other regional centres, like Newcastle.

  15. 515
    Ron
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

    Socrates

    There ar aspects of libertarianism I do support However like politcal partys there is a Libertarian church with varying views from ‘moderate’ to ‘less moderate’ , and i tend for th former especfialy when rights of a few severely infring th rights of overwhelming majority , and where trade off points ar

  16. 516
    Dario
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

    IMO the most likely candidate for a second airport is south

  17. 517
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

    Ron 515
    All the things you mentioned could be fitted into a liberal theory as well as a libertarian view, especially if you don’t hold with property rights overruling individual rights. Not all liberals hold views on rights that are absolute. Liberal philosophers who are also interested in legal philosophy and jurisprudence like Ronald Dworkin would be quite close to your view.

  18. 518
    Oz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

    Far right (economically) libertarians worry me because of their religious faith in the so called “power” of markets. The only thing fundamentalist free-markets have shown is that they breed inequality and a dog-eat-dog system of society. Two things I believe we should be aiming to bury, not trying to claim them as an ideal way of doing things.

  19. 519
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    It’s interesting that Michael Johnson, the member for Ryan, has been placed behind the Opposition dispatch box in Parliament. The seat behind the pulpit is the most sought after backbench seat on each side of the chamber as it gives the most free media exposure.

    Normally political parties stick highly vulnerable members in those spots. I can’t remember him being there before – can anyone confirm?

    If they’ve got Johnson sitting there, their QLD tracking polls must be showing a whole world of hurt.

  20. 520
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    The current airport in Newcastle is more than capable of handling jets – after all, it is where our current fleet of FA/18s are housed.

    The only problem with it is that it’s next to impossible to get to and even if you built a high-speed rail link (not such a bad idea considering how many ppl commute from the Central Coast to Sydney), it would still take about an hour to get there. That’s ok for an international flight, but not for flights to Melbourne (the main destination from Sydney) or Brisbane/Canberra.

    An interesting proposal would be to expand Wollongong Airport (at Albion Park) to handle jets. Quite a few people commute from there to Sydney. However, it would require a high-speed rail link to make it viable for business travel plus a major upgrade of the Princes Highway/F6

  21. 521
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    Possum, the seating plan (updated 14/10/08, presumably to account for the Mayo and Lyne by-elections) has him in the back row. I assume he’s closer to the front now?

  22. 522
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Why not build the second airport in Newcastle, make it soley for International and leave the domestic at Kingford-smith.

    I would call that a win-win

    Building a fast rail link to Newcastle can in turn take pressure of Sydney’s growth corridor instead allowing Newcastle to further develop.

  23. 523
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Billbo, today he was sitting where Nola Marino usually sits – unless someone beat Nola up with a seriously large ugly stick overnight, it was Johnson.

    It’s unusual to change these things like this – hence I was wondering if anyone else noticed and maybe I was just imagining things. I’ve got a confirmation on twitter by another tragic who was watching – hard to tell if it was Johnson though because he had his face squished into his hand during most of QT.

    But if I had to guess – that’s who it was.

  24. 524
    Oz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    but not for flights to Melbourne (the main destination from Sydney) or Brisbane/Canberra.

    Then keep Kingsford Smith domestic?

  25. 525
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    On Monday QT, Johnson was sitting where Judi Moylan usually sits.
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/12/khemlanij.png

  26. 526
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    Yes the domestic carriers would fight tooth and nail for domestic flights to remain at KSIA.

    Just a word of warning on Newcastle fast rail plans –
    - Newcastle airport is further from the Newcastle CBD than Kingsford Smith is from the Sydney CBD
    - there is no suitable existing rail corridor from Sydney to Newcastle, or Newcastle CBD to Newcastle airport, meaning either land acquisition or tunnelling.
    - double track electric rail costs > $10 million per km if in a suitable corridor
    - double track rail tunnel costs > $100 million per km

    So you are talking billions just for the rail link (120km+ from Sydney CBD to Newcastle airport). It would be cheaper to give every voter in Albanese’s seat $10,000.

  27. 527
    vera
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    this rules Richmond out.

    The federal government has confirmed it will search for a second airport site near Sydney but has ruled out building it within the city's basin.

    And there might be someone interested in building it

    A Macquarie Bank spokeswoman confirmed the federal government had given it a first option to build a new airport as a condition of the sale of Sydney Airport in 2002.

    "We have a first right of refusal over the development or operation of another major airport within a radius of 100km of the Sydney CBD," the spokeswoman said.

    http://news.smh.com.au/national/no-second-airport-for-sydney-basin-govt-20081202-6pnn.html

  28. 528
    Flaneur
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    today he was sitting where Nola Marino usually sits – unless someone beat Nola up with a seriously large ugly stick overnight, it was Johnson.

    It’s unusual to change these things like this – hence I was wondering if anyone else noticed and maybe I was just imagining things.

    It was Johnson. Also, Bob McMullin had someone else sitting in his seat.

  29. 529
    vera
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    Hello Ron

    William moderates abuse , but in linguistics he defers to me and i feel your lingos just shaded into parlamentery acceptance there

    And so he should, your’e the number one man when it comes to lingo

  30. 530
    Dario
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    Just a word of warning on Newcastle fast rail plans

    Yeah, Newcastle just isn’t a realistic option

  31. 531
    ShowsOn
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:44 pm | Permalink

    Senator Faulkner just concluded an interesting speech on reform to the AEC. The Government has rejected an opposition plan to set up a separate voter fraud section within the AEC.

  32. 532
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

    Ronster

    I professed faith IN science, not faith over science.

    Hicks wasn’t a hanging offence because it was primarily the US Government who held him for five years, not ours. Also it was just one person. If Howard did the same in Oz, it would be worse than his refugee policy.

    The anti-terror laws are too open to abuse by the political process. Also we’ve got some serious dimwits running anti-terrorism and the Federal DPP in Oz. All this terrorism stuff is a huge beat-up. Hundreds of people die every week due to underfunding of hospitals and bad medicine. Is everyone carrying on like a pork chop about that. But when a few dippy zealots play on the internet and fantasise about making a bomb we’re expected to believe taht life as we know it is about to end. There is no sense of proportion in the terrorism debate. It’s all hysteria.

  33. 533
    Oz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

    So Sydney is ruled out and there are prohibitive costs and a lack of an adequate corridor when it comes to fast rail in Canberra and Newcastle.

    You’re all just Macquarie Bank stooges!

  34. 534
    Oz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    Hicks wasn’t a hanging offence because it was primarily the US Government who held him for five years, not ours

    The silence of our Government regarding that sort of treatment towards a citizen, and their approval for Guantanamo should be a “hanging offence”.

    You say it’s ok if it’s only one person who’s held for 5 years without charge in an illegal prison while our government does nothing, Is it ok for 2? 3? When does it stop becoming ok? And why?

  35. 535
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Thanks Flaneur

  36. 536
    The Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Poss, What is happening to Sexy Maxy? Where is she sitting and I haven’t heard or seen her asking a single question. Is she playing possum? or planning to return to Your ABC as the Chairwoman of the Board?

  37. 537
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

    “You’re all just Macquarie Bank stooges!”

    Thanks to the nature of the financial deals done with them by various State and the former Federal government, we are all hostages of Macquarie Bank :(

    Someone shoudl use that statement by Mac Bank to demand they disclose the details of their contract and where it says that. They will say its “Commercial In Confidence” but that is BS. After the competitive bidding period has closed there is no public interest reason why such deals should remain secret.

  38. 538
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

    Finns, she’s sitting directly behind Swan on the front row of the backbench. You don’t really see much of her in QT except for that weird angle that originates from somewhere behind the speakers chair and pans to Rudd.

  39. 539
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    Oz

    No, I didn’t say it was OK to keep Hicks for even one year, or at all for that matter. What Bush and Howard did was 100% wrong but wouldn’t hang Howie for it. Probably just a quick beating. But I would hang Bush who has done it to hundreds of people in contravention to international and US law.

  40. 540
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    If Conroy keeps making a goose of himself over the internet filter I hope they give McKew a run in comuniactions. She deserves a chance at something and actually knows the industry in question.

  41. 541
    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    Dio

    Interestingly it may be possible to hang Bush and a few others who ordered torture, or failed to stop it (!) under US law. At the end of WWII a Japanese general named Yamashita was executed on that basis (failure to prevent warcrimes). See
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Command_responsibility

  42. 542
    The Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    Poss, how did the member for Petrie got the top gig? It must be her exotic name: Yvette D’Ath. They simply can’t resist her baby face.

    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/mp-profiles/petr.htm

  43. 543
    Oz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    If Conroy keeps making a goose of himself over the internet filter I hope they give McKew a run in comuniactions. She deserves a chance at something and actually knows the industry in question.

    Good idea!

    The problem with Conroy is the factional power he possesses. Wow a lot of S’ in that word.

  44. 544
    Oz
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Petrie is quite marginal? 2%.

  45. 545
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    Finns – she sits on a margin of 2% and won a seat that surprised quite a few non-Qld’ers. Margins in seats like Petrie are always exaggerated if you take them at face value because of the demographics of the place. If you alienate only 1 semi-major demographic the seat can be lost, so they’ve whacked her in the prime position to get a bit of recognition.

    Also shores up the female vote for the ALP more broadly – or so the theory goes. I dont give it much credence myself – the people that watch QT have already made up their mind on their vote, and the local media and groundwork operation provides more local recognition than the 5 second clips on the nightly commercial news of QT stuff could ever do.

  46. 546
    Diogenes
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

    I saw that Conroy’s puritanical wowserism might have spawned a new party, the Australian Sex Party. Four million Aussies access porn each year. I wonder how many would change their vote. There might be a lot of modems for sale if the filter gets up.

    The Australian Sex Party will be launched today at Melbourne's Sexpo by Eros Foundation spokeswoman and now ASP convener Fiona Patten. With a claimed four million Australians accessing pornography each year, Patten reckons the ASP has a real chance of winning seats in state and federal parliaments. Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy Minister Stephen Conroy's move to have internet providers run trials of filters to block "real depictions of actual sexual activity" along with child porn and bestiality has fired up Patten and her mates. The ASP's platform will include national sex education, reduced censorship and abolition of the proposed internet filter. Patten reckons the filter, which will affect everyone, will put the local sex industry out of business within five years.

  47. 547
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:26 pm | Permalink

    Oh, and Finns – she might have a baby face, but I wouldnt fight her for the last jelly bean in the packet!

  48. 548
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    Finns - she sits on a margin of 2% and won a seat that surprised quite a few non-Qld’ers.

    Not me though – I put as much money on Labor in Petrie as the bookies would allow.

  49. 549
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    Blatant self-plug – might be time to start rethinking Australia’s political demographics Part 1

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/03/its-time-to-rethink-political-demographics-part-1/

  50. 550
    The Finnigans
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

    Diog, i hope the Australian Sex Party will a seat in the lower house. Then it will be interesting to know where and how she will sit, ala that porn star who won a seat in the Italian Parliament?

    http://www.quesomagro.com/blog/uploaded_images/ciccolina-713948.jpg

    That’s what i call exciting QT

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