The parliamentary year has ended with a striking result from Newspoll: Labor leads 59-41, up from 55-45 last fortnight, with Kevin Rudd leading Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 66 per cent (up three) to 19 per cent (down two). Kevin Rudd’s approval rating of 70 per cent is one point shy of his previous best from April, while Malcolm Turnbull’s approval and disapproval have both gone five points in the wrong direction, to 47 per cent and 32 per cent (The Australian offers a graphic and a nifty preferred prime minister tracker showing figures back to early 2006). Nonetheless, the leadership ratings suggest voting intention would have been even worse for the Coalition if Brendan Nelson was still leader. Turnbull’s approval rating is still seven points higher than Nelson’s best result, and the 47 per cent gap on preferred prime minister is roughly equal to what Nelson managed when Rudd’s approval was in the mid-50s. Elsewhere:
• Essential Research also has Labor leading 59-41, up from 58-42 last week. Also featured are questions on the performance of Julie Bishop as Shadow Treasurer, the relative popularity of Julia Gillard and Julie Bishop and “global terrorism and international unrest”.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a paper providing statistical details from every election since federation, along with a precis detailing the circumstances of each election.
• Sky News, Foxtel and Austar have announced that a public and political affairs television network called A-APAN, along the lines of the American C-SPAN, will be launched on January 20 next year. It will feature coverage of parliament and committee proceedings, industry meetings, and congressional and parliamentary coverage from the United States and the United Kingdom. It will be available on pay TV and digital free-to-air, the latter initially only in Sydney.
• Colin Barnett says the proposal for fixed terms in Western Australia will feature “a mechanism if there is some catastrophic behaviour of a government that you might be able to bring on a poll”. It will also provide for flexibility in the announcement of a date in either February or March, rather than fixing a precise date.
• Antony Green has weighed in on the recent criticism of New South Wales’ system of fixed four-year terms.
1,313 Comments
Some people have short memories:
Wednesday, 14 May 2008
Treasurer Wayne Swan has delivered on the Rudd Government’s promised tax cuts as part of a $55 billion package for its core constituents, working families.
The tax cuts, worth $46.7 billion over the next four years, will cut the tax paid by a worker on $80,000 a year by $21.15 per week from July 1, 2008. That saving will rise to $24.04 on July 1, 2009 and $29.81 on July 1, 2010.
What are the figures???
What were the 2PP figures from Nelson’s leadership?
When are the Tories ever going to learn that disunity is death. They should never work on a Friday either it always damages them.
Wow
wtf? Chris U on ABC newsbreak refers to the $10b “sugar hit” as though that is a fact.
and “santa won’t have a surplus next time”. Sorry, but the guy is a dolt.
Adam, from the previous thred, the only reference to PJK’s quote is wikiquote:
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Paul_Keating (which has it ‘uncited’), but I seem to recall reading it in The Hawke Asendency.
And way off topic, geez that vision of Raelene Boyle reacting to Kerryn McCann’s death is heart breaking.
Well that’s it then. Cossie back for sure in the next few months of the new year.
Don’t be sorry, he is a dolt
2007 election campaign tax cuts were to be 31 billion vs Howards 34 billion over 3 years , with diff into education
I posted on the previous thread, but I found it interesting:
Love this from Samantha Maiden:
err success?? oh, we’re only caring about political newspoll sense. dopey.
That must have been Fran’s Parthian shot.
Scorpio never feel constrained to check the spelling of word you don’t know how to spell in Google.
Costello is perhaps hoping for 10 poll result increases in a row ala interest rate increases.
“Springtime for Kevin and Julia,
Winter for Turnbull and Truss…”
I don’t know how the rest of it goes.
Perhaps the voters have seen through Turnbull’s “I fully support it except for everything single thing about it” line…
Let’s be honest he’s gone to that well a few times in the last couple of months. It would work better if he started off with a “we’ll wait and see”, instead of going way over the top as usual and declaring unconditional support… and THEN (too late… too late) he picks it to death.
The sad thing is that i dont think in the history of polling that any Coalition government has had such support in polling at most they get 54-46…oh dear
Maiden spends the last three pars (of the piece reporting the Newspoll result) promoting and supporting Turnbull’s “sugar hit” critique of Rudd’s stimulus package.
As if the ordinary folk (the 59%) have been fooled yet again by the dastardly Mr Rudd.
Totally irrelevant to the story (and totally transparently partisan)
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24771879-601,00.html
Only one word needs to be changed in the first verse:
The Liberals was having trouble
What a sad, sad story
Needed a new leader to restore
Its former glory
Where, oh, where was he?
Where could that man be?
We looked around and then we found
The man for you and me
Ha hahh, Gotcha Bushfire
Told ya Turnbull would sink below 20% PPM with the stimulus package!
14 but Glen they’ve had bigger election wins than the ALP haven’t they??
1966 yes we did and 1975 but still how the heck are we suppose to make up this much ground!
I can understand the electorate liking Rudd, we just need to get some policy out there.
Brendon, all is forgiven, please come back. Miss your tearjerkers.
Tish-tosh, Glen. Look at Possum’s long-term 2PP table
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/the-long-view/
Howard had huge leads through most of 1996-97, and again in 2001.
True Glen. Would it really kill you lot to actually come up with a policy? I honestly can’t think of a single one you’ve released this year.
Was reading on Jack the Insiders blog tonight that he doesn’t understand the Rudd phenomena, but everytime he has a shot at him, he gets flooded with angry responces (mainly from women!) Have to say I don’t quite get it either. Maybe voters just do like the boring ones
Keating on Lib/Nationol party Leaders
National Party leader Ian Sinclair “a political carcass with a coat and tie on”
Hewson “an abacus gone feral”
Malcolm Fraser “like an Easter Island statue with an arse full of razor blades”
Costello “th tip”
Oh my god and FARK. Analysis to follow. What the hell is the O.O. and AbC to make of this?
So best case (for ALP) is we’ve got another 10 years to go; worst case – 6 years?
I guess i have a short memory but still…
We have Dio, its just that they were adopted by Labor (bank deposit guarantees ect)…but we havent anything new really and that’s the trouble.
Hurray! The voters have seen through Turnbull’s destructive fear campaign and noticed that farce in the Senate. I said a month ago that the polls would improve with the stimulus. Not only has the government also cut taxes (as Adam said) but they still have the long term meaures (infrastructure funding) coming as well. Australia may yet come out of this credit crunch OK but either way, as long as Rudd and Swan can say that they have done all they can, they won’t be blamed. Note that teh PM figures mean that at least 5 of 41 Coalition voters prefer Rudd!!
At this point I only hope Rudd takes a decent break over Christmas. He has earnt it, and the best thing he could do for Labor right now islook after his health – he might be PM for a long time
It’s not an opposition’s job to have policies out in their first year out of power. It’s their job to suffer through the valley of despond until the next election looms.
I guess ill enjoy watching NZ Parliament than our own on A-SPAN…
early day Glen.
Turnbull has to get out and do some hard yards and meet people (ie out of Sydney). A listening tour wouldn’t be out of order.
Since Rudd became leader in Dec 2006, the Newspoll ALP 2PP has never dropped below 52%, and it only got that low just before the election, when the floaters were having last-minute palpitations. Most of the time it’s been between 55 and 60. Strange as it may seem, Rudd is becoming of the great phenomena of Australian political history.
Comes of being a Liberal party supporter. You have to have regular senior moments to be able to join.
I think this poll is a symbol of how much political orthodoxy has changed in the last six months. The late 1990s suited Howard because he had been left with a low inflation and growing economy. He didn’t have to do anything except wait for taxes to roll in.
But now the orthodoxy of balanced budgets and low government investment in education, health and infrastructure is dead. Now Labor policy is orthodox, yet Turnbull is fighting against the Howard faction in his own party who want to continue late 1990s Liberal policies (cut tax, don’t invest).
The times won’t suit the Liberals, they have the wrong philosophy at the wrong time.
I think it has to do more with us than with Rudd as smart a politician as he is we have just as much to blame if not more so for our current position in the polls.
What would you expect really after 12 years of Government and the 1st year of a new popular one, who would want to change now?
I think the people have gone cold on the Liberal Party because the last thing they would want during an economic slowdown (or any time) is for their pay to be cut.
eaxaclty right – and why I stil think the Libs were dopey to ditch Nelson so soon. For what? Think Turnbull has any gloss left now?
But then Insiders on Sunday did remind me of just how bad the Tarago lad was.
It is their job to work hard and consistently though and this year they have not done that. It has been cardboard cutouts and silly stunts with neverending angling for changes in leadership, while talking down the economy that have been the outstanding features of the first year of conservative opposition.
Cuppa that’s not the reason we changed IR ok for god’s sake why would anybody want that to happen, you obviously dont understand our IR policy and are duped into believing Union/ALP rubbish think for yourself!
Of course that’s completely correct. Your only hope for 2010 is that we have a really nasty recession and that by 2010 people have started to forget that it’s all George Bush’s fault and started to blame Rudd. That is certainly not impossible – it’s what happened to Scullin. But I don’t think it’s very likely.
Gawd almighty. 59%. I’m gobsmacked, and very pleased.
Adam, desperate times call for desperate measures! Glen a policy to at least score a good converted try would be to; abolish capital gains tax as an integral part of tax reform.
God, what am I doing helping the other mob?
Well then they should do it with a bit more style and grace. It’s like watching the self-flagellation monks during the Black Plague at the moment.
If only the Liberal Party had someone with people skills who could lead them out of this mess….
Mal Brough…
Unions=Boo eh glen
Failing that they could abuse ALP policies by using 30 year old references to events that two thirds of the voters don’t understand.
Thinking about Adam’s comments I reflected on why he has done so well in his first year. One thing he has done (and what Obama is doing now in terms of naming high profile people to his Cabinet) I will offer: it isn’t just him. He has picked the best people for the job in all the key roles. Swan, Tanner, Gillard, and Wong have all performed well. There are a few factional hacks but they are in teh second row spots. However much I may criticise Turnbull and Nelson, the Libs don’t look a strong team. Labor does. I think it reflects credit on Rudd that rathe than banish his rivals, he has built the best performing inner circle he could. I hope he keeps going that way.
At this point the only thing more I hope Rudd does is have a good break and look after his health. That would be the best thign he could do for Labor – he could be PM for a long time
The strange thing is that Turnbull still has high personal approval ratings for an Opposition Leader with only a 19% PPM. That suggests that the punters actually like Turnbull, although they like Rudd even more. Given the grisly alternatives, this suggests that the Libs should stick with Turnbull.
Especially when it was 12 years in power. This isn’t really a surpise to me. When times get tough the incumbents usually get an early boost regardless of their actions as voters are a little scared to change things. Longer term the government’s fortunes will depend on how those tough times pan out of course.
“When you’re in a trough, call for Mal Brough”.
Yep it might work…
So they undoubtedly won’t
We arent going to change leaders, Malcolm will take us to 2009 or 2010…and will probably be the leader after that as well.
We should all get our predictions in for the next election. I’ll go with 90 seats for Labor. They’ll get 54% 2pp
Glen, they knew in the formative days of WorstChoices that people would be “hurt”. They insisted (at first, till the political heat piled up on them) on having no disadvantage test. What other outcome did they envisage than that employers would use their policy to cut pay and conditions? Remember the Spotlight case where employees had to sign “agreements” by which they lost conditions in “exchange” for a 2 cent per hour rise. Spotlight said they were doing just as the legislation asked them to do.
Frankly, Grog, I want a competent government at the Federal level in particular
Didn’t Beazley frequently get similar numbers? People liked him, but only as Opposition Leader.
The best ever:
ANONYMOUS COUNTRY PARLIAMENTARIAN: “If there’s one thing I’m proud of it’s this: I’m a country member!”
WHITLAM: “I remember.”
Glen I saw this heading on ninemsn:
I thought, Brough’s coming back! He’s coming back!
Then I found out it refers to Mal Meninga. Oh well.
http://wwos.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=683921
Merry Christmas Mr Rudd,
Love Newspoll!
Cuppa, nobody on either side would deliberately put in laws for the purpose of cutting people’s pay that wasnt Workchoices aim whatsoever…in fact the fair pay commission actually raised the minimum wage so please your attempts at smearing the Coalition any further on this is just too rich!
Dear me. I’m going to play ALP Den Mother now, and warn you all against the dangers of HUBRIS. Go and look it up, and then write out 100 times. “I must not succumb to hubris.” Many terrible things can happen in two years, and some of them probably will. Good night.
Amen – not sure what I said that had you saying that though!
I don’t know if there is much point changing Turnbull at this point, but on these figures I would be very surprised if Julie Bishop is retained. Gillard has her dead to rights.
“The strange thing is that Turnbull still has high personal approval ratings for an Opposition Leader with only a 19% PPM.”
not strange at all unless you believ in that foolish PPM method (66/19 vs 2PP 59/41)
wish people would get out of disynland
Glen, what if they were doing it to please their business and employer constituency with the promise of reduced wages and bigger profits?
Oh come on. One week of Hubris for Christmas, then back to reality!
Of course it was! It was designed to lower the wages of low skilled workers, so businesses could employ more people on lower wages.
My argument was simple. If we are going to take money off people, it should be people who can afford it, not cleaners and check out chicks.
Of course the minimum wage went up when the economy was growing.
What would WorkChoices acheive now that the world economy is going backwards? It would simply make it easier to sack people when they can least afford to lose their jobs.
Adam
On the recesion front, it is still guesswork but most economists I read still put Australia at one of the best positions in the OECD. So any recession here coudl still legitimately be pointed out as better than most other countries. Hence I really don’t think Labor are very vulnerable there. In fact, even if Australia goes into recession next year, it would probably be coming out by the time a poll is due in 2010.
There was no promise of that Cuppa and like i said the fair pay commission raised wages not decreased them like the Unions and ALP said!
Just remember Hubris destroyed Howard and it can destroy Rudd too.
Adam
Cossie would have better numbers than Turnbull as PPM. It’s time he pulled his finger out.
Cuppa please, don’t rub in with workchoices when it’s 59/41 LOL.
Hear hear!
I am still on the thesis that FIRST TERM Labor governments tend to get a landslide win in their SECOND term. This has been a strong pattern by Labor states, I am looking for parallels with the first term of the Rudd government.
The fact Labor’s 2pp vote doesn’t seem to go lower than 54 is evidence that they will secure a second term easily.
http://www.openaustralia.org/debates/?id=2008-02-19.14.1
Julia Gillard, Questions Without Notice, House Of Representatives, 19 February 2008
Well I bet this is a nice Christmas present for Brendan Nelson. A big glass of Schadenfreude all round I’d say!
True about the hubris. Best way to avoid that is to examine NSW State Labor. There is an ugly mess that needs fixing. If Australia does go into recession, they will probably be the difference.
socrates 64 – I reckon you are right on Bishop being the first to go, but to Glen’s dismay, Brough will never make it back and Tip will in be charge before the next election.
Glen, AGAINST the recommendations of the Howard Government
He’s gonna sulk until the entire coalition party room pleads with him.
Glen,
Work Choices killed the Howard Government. Don’t ever forget it!
Night all, with a big kiss to Newspoll
He is their best chance.
Hawke in 84 was just an outlier?
Cuppa @74
Smackdown
shows
non hubristically- 101 seats oh and the gnats down to four seats
teeheehee
Lets see how this gets spun . Wholly Spacepersons and their shitkickers.
Cuppa find me one piece of evidence that Howard or any Minister created workchoices to reduce the pay of people? You cannot!
Dario but you are forgetting the Unions and ALP said the fair pay commission would decrease the minimum wage and they didnt, their arguments were spurious!
err haven’t they already done that?
One more thing – hats off to Glen for at least turnig up tonight to face the bowling on a very hostile pitch.
Was the FPC instructed by Howard to raise the min wage?
If yes, then serious trouble here.
If no, then argument @61 is vitiated. There would be a complete disconnect between FPC and Govt policy.
Socrates,
Without a box too!
GG no it didnt, we lost for a variety of reasons…
But i believe in occum’s razor in that all things being equal the simplest explanation is usually the correct one, the simplest explanation is they got tired of Howard and we got the boot.
Dolly said it the best “they just got over John Howard in the end”
There is no denying we made policy errors but in the end Howard stayed too long.
“I am still on the thesis that FIRST TERM Labor governments tend to get a landslide win in their SECOND term.”
Nonsense , hawke 1984 a reduction , whitlam 74 a reduction , and Libs Howard 98 reducton There is no corelation at all ..and State Govt history is diferent to Federal
Bryce the FPC was set up to not allow massive increases in wages that did not align to productivity and it was successful.
Now enough from me im getting too depressed.
Because that is the effect it had.
Glen, low skilled workers NEED Award protections to ensure their conditions. WorkChoices undermined Awards (even Hockey admits this!) therefore WorkChoices increased the chance of low skilled workers being ripped off.
Who cares if WorkChoices made it easier for a corporate lawyer to earn $120,000 instead of $100,000 such people don’t rely on Award protections!
WorkChoices was designed to attack LOW skilled workers in retail jobs. It is unfair, unethical, and immoral to attack workers who have the least to lose.
They made it possible for employers to remove conditions such as penalty rates and overtime with no recompense.
What did they expect would happen? That employers wouldn’t use this new money-grabbing mechanism?
SNIP: Comment deleted. Last warning on use of the term “troll” – The Management.
Glen, you misunderstand the nature of Occam’s Razor.
Agreed. Good work.
Glen 39
“think for yourself!”
Seen this uttered often by rightwingers on forums.
think for yourself!=think like me!
No, the opposite
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,19259698-421,00.html
News Ltd, 26 May 2006
harry
Im more than happy to be educated about occams razor.(ive heard the term but have never delved into its meaning).
but does it apply to snails
Absolutely
ShowsON
“I am still on the thesis that FIRST TERM Labor governments tend to get a landslide win in their SECOND term.”
This is a thread on FEDERAL politcs You made a foolish statement on Federal proved by hawke 1984 a reduction , whitlam 74 a reduction , and Libs Howard 98 reducton
Now retrospectively you’re claiming you were refereing to State politcs …what on a Federal thread …not only irrelevantly …BUT history shows no correleation of State 2nd terms to Federal 2nd terms You reely ar an amateur politcal poster , and your 2nd excuse was worse than th first
Basically, “keep it simple stupid”
ShowsOn, due to your repeated abuse of it, you are no allowed to use the word “troll” under any circumstances.
59-41….It’s hardy a surprise though is it?… love him or hate him, Rudd’s gone about his business in a way that very, very few people in all honesty could have done, or would have done any different if they could. It’s a tough job but somebody’s gotta do it and the K-man has done it well
Jesus, after a year of screaming and squirming, even the “wedges” got through
Merry Christmas Kev… you earn’d it
Don’t *mess* it up
59/41 more lovely numbers
A Sir Joh quote
on condoms: “We don’t want any of that sort of thing up here.”
Dunno why you’re all so excited. The 59 Labor 2PP is coming off the back of a record 15% Green vote.
I can dream. =(
No: Divide until simple and then concur.
vera – 108
Would you believe, I knew a guy who knew this guy who met a guy that painted something very similar to that on the Story Bridge maybe 22 years ago
I’m not allowed to refer to state elections!? I didn’t know you had been made a moderator.
Consider this isn’t the point I was making, I consider this more Ronning.
So why do you always respond to my posts?
spam box I beleive,
talking about Qld 22yrs ago, I have Rodney Rude joke book and some of his cracks about the Qld cops around that time are priceless
Trying to educate you ShowsON that Hawke 1984 a reduction , whitlam 74 a reduction , and Libs Howard 98 reducton mean SECOND terms at Federal ar not a landslide as you implied , and we ar posting on a FEDERAL poll thread….and now that you claim you were referring to State history well remeber State history is also irelevant Now furthermore 2 years out from a poll showing hubris & talking lanslides is not wise either , but th warm feeling is OK
Why is state history irrelevant if I am arguing that it is relevant?
Do you think this stuff up yourself or do you use a random word generator?
Later Joh was asked by a journo how he’d stop condoms coming into queensland …………..”don’t you worry about that”
I don’t get the condom one.
Hahaha, it’s not worth it mate
113 – ah memories (of deeds done by others of course)
… It was a terrible(fantastic) time to be a youngish Queenslander
Rodney R didn’t know half of it
No more back-and-forth of any kind between ShowsOn and Ron. It’s boring.
Ron,
My random word generator says “Ron is right”.
Is it correct, incorrect or a total confusion to the cut and paster pseudo intellectual who criticises witout substance.
117
you kinda had to be there to appreciate the joke
(bridge structures and all)
SNIP: Breach of #120 deleted – The Management.
About time Newspoll put out their quarterly Queensland state polling too so we can see if a small ball hiding in the shadows can continue improving in the polls or will the tactic be an abject failure. The last poll was on the 24/9 so we will soon see if silence is golden for the Borg and his merry band of followers. Somehow, I think he will be flushed out of hiding well before the next election.
SNIP: Bickering deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Bickering deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Breach of #120 deleted – The Management.
William,
It was more barkering than bickering!
How soon before Turnball is knifed in the back?
Nothing beats a dysfunctional Liberal Party Opposition LOL
Last week’s disaster in parliament must have hurt them badly HA HA
So Kevin is now officially bigger than Jesus.
Poor Glen: I admire him for defending the indefensible, but these Liberals are a joke.
Maybe he should move to New Zealand?
Well GG , you’re last man standing …so thanks for #121
Now can you explain a pseudo intellectual professing love of footy , and barracking for both teams in a 2 team town
Wait until Kevy’s approval rating gets to 69%
I’d say the honeymoon is still continuing, and the bride is very satisfied.
evan14 @129 – as Socrates suggested earlier (I think he s/he’s gone beddy byes) Bishop will be the first to feel the steel, I reckon Turnbull won’t get spiked till we are closer to the next election, tip wont forget he’s cohones this time round (and then he’ll be slaughtered by the smiling assassian schoolboy, the ruddy Ruddster).
I’d be careful saying that, lest you cause a reaction like this
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ6NL3iNNMs
why would you take notice of 66% PPM (to just 19%) , when 2PP is 59/41
Actually, THIS will be the result.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo42684XU9Y
McFarlane, Industry Minister, August 05:
“We’ve got to ensure that industrial relations reform continues so we have the labour prices of New Zealand,”
I’m pretty sure this didn’t mean they wanted to fight for better wages and conditions for NZers..
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/greenhouse-targets-locked-in/2008/12/08/1228584743287.html
No use supplying 1/2 th relevant quote and losing its context
“The final figure will be set after an international meeting on climate change in Copenhagen late next year, when the intentions of the rest of the world will be better known.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-dec9.jpg
ALP primary 48 :O
Ok, I’ll say it. I have to. I’ve seen it with my own eyes.
For the first time in his illustrious career as a sycophant Dennis Shanahan has written an entirely objective political article completely devoid of spin.
The Liberal Party has finally broken his heart and spirit.
Now back to eating the twenty seven hats I commited myself to.
Tsk, tsk, Sharman Stone. First lesson of being in Opposition: losers do not get to re-write history.
‘Humane’? (see below, from Liberal Party Web Site).
Whacking kids into detention; whacking asylum seekers into detention for years in the most bizarre arrangements and then being forced to release 90% of them because they were actually genuine refugees; Lying and vilifying the desperate and the powerless – for ‘throwing children overboard’; shared responsibility for drowning a boat load of women and children in SIEV X…
No, Sharman Stone, not ‘humane’. Pure bastardry.
The only lesson learned by the bastards who perpetrated all this is that electorally it worked some of the time. Turnbull and Stone have the potential to be reasonably decent people. They should stay well away from replicating this loathesome filth.
Stone could make a good start by stopping the lies about ‘humane’.
http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=2259
“The Coalition dealt with the problem humanely and decisively. We brought people smuggling to a halt with the introduction of Temporary protection visas, the excising of Australia’s 4000 or more northern islands as migration zones, and the Pacific solution of offshore processing of people’s claims for asylum, “Dr Stone said.
A nice way for Labor to end out the year and certainly the Opposition deserve it after the shambles they’ve been has been well and truly demonstrated.
Boerwar
If the Liberals ever want to see my vote again they will face up to the Howard years and apologize, pretending things were not as they were will not work for me.
Glen
The Liberals need to shutup, stop pretending they can win the next election and try to get some decent members into the next parliament. They real issue is, can they attract people with two neurons to rub together, if they can’t they have to wait until the current crop of capable labor members get old and senile, and hope that the NSW mad right ( yes labor has the same problem) manage to destroy Labors future.
HAHAHAHA
I bet GP is shattered.
Coalition for another 13 years of opposition!
But get this…
shanahan’s clearly lost his cool and his last sentence is priceless:
A month is a year for the Libs, in Dennis’s mind. Poor dears. Almost makes me feel sorry for them.
Said much better than I could:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/time-to-put-the-small-l-back-into-liberal-20081208-6tzp.html
We were discussing the other day that the next fed election will be in a year and half only. That’s not that long to keep the momentum going. Once the kidies get their pressies, the polls should drift even further apart
With tongue in cheek I suggest we get the abc to rerun the howard years – we might get the polls for the fib party to go even lower
I find it hard to believe that 59/41 result. I’m not complaining, but I think it must be an outlier
Are we expecting any other polls out today? Morgan or whatever?
Yeah, BB, I noted it too, but I was prepared to forgive him that…
Boerwar @ 143 -
Heard part an interview on ABC local radio yesterday with an NZ journo about the murder of one of the Tampa refugees that the Kiwis, bless em, took in. He was an Afghani working hard driving a taxi to support his wife and kids. Very sad.
The telling part of the interview was the journo waxing lyrical for quite some time about how well the Tampa refugees have fitted into NZ society. Apparently they are very highly regarded.
Whether this poll is an outlier or note, even allowing for MOE, the worst the real result could be is around 56/44 TPP, which is still clearly up from the previous poll and the election. It confirms that the disunity and spoiling tactics have not worked. As I said, at least Turnbull has tried, but I can’t see how they can afford to retain Bishop on these figures. Gillard scores points off her every time.
That the Liberals have lost the will to lie (I mean spin) shows how demoralised they are. Even Gerard Henderson in the SMH this morning tried to dream up something on US politics, rather than face this reality.
fredn @ 148
Good link.
Looks very much like the leopard’s spots are rusted on.
Sharman Stone is disappointing in this. She has the smarts but has deliberately taken on Ruddock’s mantle. Sad.
The article also reinforces that the Liberal decent right and the Liberal crazy right still haven’t cottoned on to the fact that they have created a structural problem for the Liberal Party. In broad terms, it has gone Dry/right and vacated the centre. Even if they wanted to, they would have some great difficulty regaining the support of disaffected small L liberals and Wets. But they don’t seem to want to.
Boerwar I agree that the Libs have given up on the centre. With the Libs having picked a mob of newcomers like Alex Hawke, I don’t see much sign of renewal coming any time soon either. I’m not sure the incumbents are capable of renewal, with many of the moderates gone or going. As I said, Rud could be PM for along time, so I hope he moderates his hours and looks after himself.
MayoFeral @ 153
Interesting story.
As a nation, we have broad choices. We could welcome the truly desperate, hunted and bastardised people, help them fit in, provide good educate them and their children and house them. We could help them find jobs and support them with any difficulties they had with coping with life in a new country. Now, how would they respond? By thanking their lucky stars that there are some decent people around. They would be the most loyal, solid citizens you could find. This is exactly how millions of post-war migrants responded. What a boon for them, and what a boon for Australia – what drive, energy, inspiration, creativity and diversity they brought with them. Win/Win, big time. (I should point out that I am part of that great wave of post-war migration to Australia).
Or, we could vilify the truly desperate, we could separate them from the rest of society, we could bastardise them in ‘detention centres’ (concentration camps, gaols – what’s in a name?). We could make them hoon bait, we could make them feel unwelcome, despised. We could minimise support for them. Just to show them how much we truly despised them for wanting to join us, we could force them to learn who Bradman was. Howard really wasn’t a fifties man. He was a retro thirties Tory)
So, which is the appropriate long-term strategy for a nation which derives its energy and strength and flexibility from motivated people working together in diversity?
Why, short-term xenophobia -mongering for the sake of power.
The perpetrators deserve to spend the rest of their lives wondering why Australians are just not buying their filth any more.
Well at least Brenda and tip will have had a chuckle over their cornflakes this morning.
The fibs will now spend christmas plotting and cursing. Come around mid march if things don’t improve the knifes come out for turnbull and mesma.
And tip is still there waiting to be tapped on the shoulder. His prospects are looking better by the day, until you remember he too is damaged goods, yesterdays man and a shook.
Am looking forward to the 24 hour news cycle playing out – hearing on the radio even hour or so how badly the polls are going for the fibs. It is some consulation after 12 years of liar government.
Socrates @ 156
In the last thread I made some comments about the high turnover of staff in Rudd’s office. There is also some anxiety in this blog that Rudd may not last long. I share the concern, and believe strongly that it would be a pity if Rudd worked himself to death.
The staff turnover rate is high by normal management standards. The question is whether it is an artefact caused by an unknown but reasonable set of factors or whether it is because Rudd runs a toxic office.
I suspect, without knowing, that he works his staff into the ground – hence the high turnover. Some say, well, they know what they are getting into, they are paid well and they are eager wannabes who want to be in the PM’s office, so they should put up with the work rate. I disagree. It is never OK to create a situation with which competent staff can’t cope. I suspect that Rudd overworks himself and expects his staff to do the same thing. No proof. Just a hypothesis.
As a general comment, Prime Ministers, along with all bosses, are perfectly free to work themselves to death. They have the choice. This does not mean that they can choose to make the same decision for their staff.
I find it odd that the PPM figures have become the highlight of polls in the media recently. This morning the ABC radio news led with the Newspoll PPM result and mentioned the 2PP figures almost as an afterthought. If 59-41 doesn’t grab news editors’ attention then what will? In the end all that matters is the vote. The PPM is little more than a curiosity.
That’s for Kevin Rudd to be concerned about. I couldn’t care less about the ongoings of his personal office.
I dont think Rudd could work himself to death if Howard got up at 5am and went to bed at 12am everyday even working through meals for 11.5 years as a man in his 60s….
But you see Glen, it’s always quality over quantity that counts.
FS i was merely comparing the fact that both Howard and Rudd work themselves very hard…whether you think one is better or not has nothing to do with it.
Congratulations to the OO – golly that was hard to write!
I’m going to have to moderate my views on that August Organ. Mike Steketee has done a good demolition job in the OO on the Liberals’ xenophobic fear mongering at:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24747366-25072,00.html
Glen @ 162
Howard was certainly a very hard worker. No doubt about it. He also put a great deal of effort into keeping fit. He was also able to keep senior staff for long periods of time.
SNIP: See Article 8 of comment moderation guidelines.
Good comment Glen @ 164
Itep @ 161
Rudd should set the standard for other bosses. It does matter what he does. It is not his own business. Nothing that a PM does as part of his job, including how he runs his office, can be considered to be ‘His own business’.
Well there are 2 polls stating the same 2PP. So it does not look like an outlier poll.
Boerwar, your whole premise is based on speculation. A large number of the staff the would have left the office over the first year would’ve been transitional staff. Each ministerial office had a large number of transitional staff that were there for the first 6-8 months.
Personally I happen to know people who work for ministers who accept it is a tough job but enjoy the pay. Many of them are just working in the jobs as ways to pay off mortgages etc. If you can’t stand the heat of politics you should never enter it. It’s that simple.
My neighbour drove Rudd and Howard around when they were in Adelaide. He said Howard was much easier to get along with and was more relaxed and friendly. He said Rudd was extremely up-tight, frantically busy, unfriendly (but polite) and really tough on his staff.
Personally, I don’t care how they run their offices. It’s the outcomes that matter when you’re in as important a job as that.
But Dio you would think you would get better outcomes from being more relaxed and friendly than up-tight, frantically busy and unfriendly…
Maybe, maybe not. I’m sure we all know lots of successful people who aren’t so nice and friendly.
#172
I think many people thrive on being frantically busy. Nothing makes a day go faster than always being on the hop.
I note the Newspoll tables have a comparison for managing Australia’s economy, which shows Wayne Swan leading Julie Bishop 45 to 21 and previously at 18-20 April it showed Malcolm Turnbull had led Swan by 35 to 29. This would indicate that Turnbull had the better of Swan and now Bishop has lost that lead. However, this is not correct.
Both Galaxy and Newspoll asked the same question in May, and both had Swan leading Turnbull.
“Galaxy 19 May 2008
Some 36 per cent of voters believe Mr Swan would be the better economic manager over Liberal shadow treasurer Malcolm Turnbull, who rated 25 per cent.”
“Newspoll 20 May 2008
During the budget period, Mr Swan has overtaken Mr Turnbull on the question of who would make the better Treasurer, to lead by 40 per cent over Mr Turnbull’s 26 per cent.
Before the election, Peter Costello had an advantage over Mr Swan of more than two-to-one.
The Coalition has also lost its mantle as preferred economic manager to the Labor Government, with 52 per cent saying the Coalition could not deliver a better budget, to 29 per cent who said it could.”
Either it’s sloppy work or there’s an agenda at play. Either way it’s not correct.
I agree with Glen on the Rudd office staff thing. I don’t blame it all on Rudd, but the Qld public serice was not a pleasant place by 1995 and resentment among public servants was a factor in the government losing office. There is a domino effect of the long hours. Overworked staffers who don’t know the answer (is there any other kind?
) then ring public servants up at the same ridiculous hours, or put unreasonable deadlines on them that mean they have to work the same sorts of times to comply. Only they aren’t paid huge salaries and don’t get any credit for it so it fast becomes quite unreasonable. So then there is a loss of expertise out of the agencies and the quality of information going back to the PM declines. Then they make poor decisions.
I agree Rudd is going (very) well, but I stand by my comment that, since he has a real opportunity to establish himself as a long term leader like Howard did, he or his senior staff should think about the way he manages people under him, and how they are treated, developed and retained. In this respect its better to be a Wellington than a Napoleon.
I think your clutching at straws with that one Glen, as ltep said it can cut both ways. From what I’ve seen, Rudds doing a great job. I’m sure Howard did a great job as well, although I didn’t like many of the things he was doing
Boerwoer,
My entirely subjective observations at barbies, the football, in business meetings and the like over many years is that it is those very people who we have taken in and their spawn are just as xenophobic and racist as any Anglo-Celt Ten Pounder or Currency.
What I’m saying is that it isn’t a one way street.
I think Rudd’s reputation for working hard is going to be very useful to him electorally. People are cynical about the motivations of most politicians, but they’ll be less cynical about Rudd. His work ethic has got a lot of press this year and must affect people’s impression of him.
Don’t bother watching the Sky Noos’ report on this poll. The message is it’s all to do with this massive handout, the opposition can’t do a thing about it now, it’s a good time for a PM to show his/her mettle, there’s a lag in the GFC’s effect on Australia and so could turn pear shaped for Labor next year but NO mention of the opposition’s short comings. Surprise, surprise.
The Australian today has anonymous Liberal frontbenchers very upset with Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership style and general way of doing business. They say he’s too close to Andrew Robb and his “small target” strategy is a cop out. Also, Xenophon is accusing the Liberals of “wasting his time” in the Senate by negotiating with him on amendments and then backing down to the government repeatedly.
Also from The Australian, the LNP in Queensland are apparently burdened with $1 million+ in debt brought over from the Liberal Party and have started a compulsory annual levy of $3000 on elected councillors and MP’s. These guys are unhappy and say that the levy is not in the LNP constitution.
As ltep said, plenty of successful people are much more unpleasant than Rudd. Staffers are expendable. Colleagues aren’t and I think that is the more important thing which will determine Rudd’s longevity. I don’t know how his colleagues view him. Certainly any foibles he has will be forgiven while things are going well.
And Rudd doesn’t strike me as someone who would burn-out, but I could be wrong.
161 ltep – spot on and this poll shows that most people think just like you.
My only comment is that if you can’t stand the heat get out of the kitchen. Transfer to another area. Get people in who can stand the heat, they’re out there.
Hell, unlike Sky Noos, even Dennis gets it.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24772007-17301,00.html
I actually thought Dennis was a bit harsh on Turnbull – see last chart:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/09/ouchpoll/
As much as Truffles might like to think the world revolves around him, sometimes it’s just not about him at all.
Ah, it doesn’t matter.
I don’t think anyone in the Liberal Party actually has the courage to launch a challenge. They’ll whine and moan to The Australian with the promise of anonymity but they’ll stick with Turnbull for some time yet.
It must be the “education revolution” and the government’s amazingly good handling of the economy.
About the only thing that is about him is the probability that he and mesma are unelectable.
Just cannot see the voters taking to either of them.
BTW I don’t think this goodwill / popularity wave will continue when in twelve months time potentially an extra several hundred thousand people will be out of work.
I agree that heaping the blame on Turnbull is silly and shortsighted, just as heaping the blame on Nelson was. Axeing Nelson and getting no lasting benefit in the polls *proves* that the bad polls were not Nelson’s fault. Mutatis mutandis, these bad polls are not Turnbull’s fault. These bad polls are RUDD’S fault. They reflect a POSITIVE judgement about Rudd, not a negative judgement about Turnbull. The fact is that the public likes Rudd and approves of the major actions of the Rudd government – the IR laws, the response to the GFC, action on climate change, money for schools, infrastructure, ending the Pacific solution, etc. They probably also think that Turnbull is not a bad bloke and would make an OK PM – but they prefer the one they’ve got, thanks very much. It follows from this that there isn’t much the Oppo can do except wait for the wheel to turn. If they think Turnbull is the best potential PM in their ranks – which he is – then they should stick with him. But of couse the media, with its constant money-driven hunger for conflict and “challenges”, won’t allow that. They will beat up another leadership crisis as soon as they can.
Adam if we hadnt of ditched Nelson the media wouldn’t have let up but by the same token now that the polls arent turning for Malcolm they’ll be just as bad…it’s lose lose as far as i can see for us in the short term.
190 – Adam, much of what you say is correct IMHO but don’t be too knd to Turnbull either. He is the leader of a party that looks and, by all accounts, is divided. A good leader doesn’t let that happen. A good leader unites a party.
knd = kind
It took one whole year for the OO to finally turn on the O:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24771996-601,00.html
One whole bloody year to state the bloody obvious!
Oh and glen at #39 serfchoices was about one thing only: cutting wages so that you could employ more workers you dolt! using that lovely third world logic, we could pay the kiddies $1 a day to work down the mines again, yay!
A lot of truth in that. Also a lot of people will have worked out even before they are reminded just how harsh life would have been under serf choices in a serious economic downturn and asking themselves WHY the fibs would want to do that to their fellow australians. It goes further – the fibs STILL have many in the parliament who STILL want serf choices brought back !
Agree with this too – BUT thats exactly what the fibs will do – Ain’t life grand
brenda is sitting there waiting for the right time to stick in knife. tip will spend his last breath trying to stop allbull from becoming PM. Then there are all the other very unhappy little vegemites anxious to blame someone, anyone and punish them.
At some stage they will also turn on little johnnie for trashing and burning the party.
The fibs do not do opposition well – and the coming years are not going to be an exception to that.
Mr Hat with all due respects you couldnt be more wrong, it was about ensuring unemployment stayed at record lows and making it easier for small business to employ people, if they had kept the no disadvantage test from the 1996 IR laws then there would have been nothing the Unions or the ALP could of said to criticise the laws…oh and Mr Hat the Fair Pay Commission raised minimum wages on more than one occasion so your argument that the laws ended up with people always losing money is misguided to say the least.
Gary, the reason the Coalition is divided is that, once they are out of government, the Nats can no longer rort the public till, so the only way they can keep the peasantry loyal is by taking cheap populist stands on hot-button issues and by differentiating themselves from the Libs, who can no longer bribe them into silence. The Libs would of course be much better off if the Nats – corrupt, reactionary and stupid as they are – could be made to disappear. Hence the Qld merger, a good idea if they can make it stick at the federal level.
Glen I really, really hope other fib supporters hold the same view as you on serf choices and try and run with it again. Please please, pretty please
What a hoot !
I am still laughing, nay praying that brough gets back and becomes fib leader.
Bring it on!
As long as Rudd is continuing to be seen to doing all he can to get us through this GFC he will remain popular. The moment people feel he’s given up Rudd will be in trouble, a scenario I don’t believe he will let happen, given that he is a man of ideas and prepared to act quickly.
It’s one thing to have unemployment rise and be seen to be doing nothing, it’s another to unemployment rise and to be seen fighting tooth and nail to prevent it rising further. People give you credit for the effort.
Brough would wipe the floor with Rudd.
There’s a smallish market research company in Australia that is currently experimenting with longitudinal political polling (which is where a poll uses the same sample, the same people every month)- hopefully I might be able to say more about that next year sometime. But one of the interesting things that has come out of their preliminary work is the almost 3 categories of Coalition supporters.
The first and by far the largest group is the absolute rusted ons that would still vote for the Coalition if some clown like Don Randall was leader.
The second was a group that mostly vote Coalition, supported Nelson in Better Prime Minister but don’t support Turnbull in BPM.
The third is the opposite – they still mostly vote Coalition, they didn’t support Nelson in BPM but now support TUrnbull on that measure.
Nelson failed in the same way that Turnbull has failed – they failed to harvest that extra 4% of the primary vote that is ordinarily a Coalition voting constituency but which is stuck on the other side of the ideological fence to the leader. It’s about twice that size on the BPM side of things (which really is interesting since ‘grumpy old conservatives’ think Rudd is better than Turnbull, while wet Liberals thought Rudd was better than Nelson – even though most of both groups would still vote Coalition).
But even if either of the opposition leaders were successful getting that extra few percent, the TPP polling wouldn’t be substantially different (because of where most of those votes are being parked)- a percent or 2 at the most.
With the 3 to 6 percent swings we’ve been looking seeing all year, Rudd has been responsible for most of it.
Nelson and Truffles have only been responsible for failing to consolidate a few points of the Coalition base – but they better get used to that with the twin support bases of the Coalition now unraveling without the power of Howard and incumbency.
The real danger for the Coalition is letting one side of that twin support base getting comfortable with Rudd and reducing their primary vote from not being able to breach 40 down to not being able to breach 38. 40 will hurt the Coalition at an election, 38 would kick the seven shades of the proverbial out of them.
Bring it on !
brough cannot even hold his own seat. He fails to take his party and voters with him.
He got done like a dinner with Qld LNP deal and spat the dummy. Now thats leadership material.
#196
Glen, there’s a balance between working conditions and the level of employment. There arrives a point where more jobs no longer trumps pay and conditions. Gillard’s IR laws probably will lead to some job losses, but that’s just how it has to be.
Brough’s seat got redistributed!
197 – Adam ,again all true IMHO but you overlook the division within Liberal ranks. The Nats weren’t the only ones to cross the floor. Besides it’s a coalition, Turnbull leads the coalition. It is up to a coalition leader to keep the coalition united as well as his own party.
He lost. Thats L O S T
He got rolled with the Qld LNP deal – his own party and people.
Seriously – I hope he gets back and gets the job. Hope it happens.
Hahahaha, now that he’s lost his seat, Mal can’t even get on the floor!
With the next federal election about 16 months out, momentum can be built from here. Especially after everyone receives their Xmas pressies. The libs will be smashed in 2010
We can all argue about Howard’s policies but the one thing we can’t deny is that Howard kept the Libs and the coalition united right up to the dying days.
Mal Brough is as good if not better than most ALP Ministers…
Brough not only lost his seat, he lost it unexpectedly. The size of the vote against him was one of the biggest surprises of the election, so I’m not following why he would make a good leader.
So did stalin hitler & mao
I reckon Gillard, Albanese, Wong, Swan, Roxon, Tanner, Crean, Burke, Smith, Ferguson, Evans, Mcklennan, Plibersek and Maklin are all better than him Glen
Possum – God your mean to Dennis
he finally come’s round and you still give him stick!
I think you just like picking on him
Arguing whether Brough would make mince meat of Rudd or not really futile. It’s only an opinion and will very likely be untested.
Of course it’s my opinion Gary and i know none of you support it but in the short term it would be untested.
Triton – it didnt surprise many in QLD.
Brough’s alleged popularity with the public was proportional to their distance away from him.
I don’t understand why the Howard government did essentially nothing to help Aboriginal communities for its first 11 years, then all of a sudden in the middle of last year start label drug dependency, violence and sexual abuse in those communities as a “national emergency”. Why was it such an emergency that they ignored the problem for 10 years?
Keating did nothing and the ALP did nothing in Opposition…at least we did something.
And here comes Nelson.
Have you forgotten where the polls were at the time? It’s called desperation
Nelson should really be on the Front Bench or out the door.
What do you think it did when you knifed Nelson genius?
Dario if anything it made us even more unpopular…it was another case of doing something because it was right not popular!
Glen, Brough’s problem is that he thinks the world works the same way the army does.
You know – you bark your orders, you send in the units and shit happens.
That might work well for blowing stuff up, but as the NT intervention proved, it’s a ridiculous model when it comes to changing human outcomes on the ground.
Possum that is the way you get things done quickly…
Possum if he’d consulted widely, if he’d had a white paper the Intervention would have been so watered down and politically correct that no good would have come from it.
Brough was ultimately answerable to the people of his electorate, and they spoke their verdict emphatically.
In his Sunshine Coast area are great numbers of single mothers, who his government dragged over the coals with their regressive workhouse laws and vicious victim-blaming ala “dole bludgers” in which Brough joined vociferously.
It’s pretty hard to assess the outcomes of the intervention when there were never any performance indicators set when it began and that there’s very little data coming out of it. It makes it hard to argue about the overall merits or otherwise of the intervention that’s for sure.
Glen’s measure for assessing the effectiveness of the intervention is of course to look at who started it. If Liberal started it it’s an unquestionable success, if Labor had started it it would be a politically correct disaster.
Precisely my point
Or it’s the way to generate an awful lot of heat and very little light, which is what seems to have occurred.
You dont need a white paper Glen, you just need something larger than the back of an envelope.
Possum most politicians of both parties engage in efforts like this precisely because if they’d have taken a long time to nut them out they’d be leaks and the effectiveness of what they wanted to do would have been tarnished…Brough had the right idea, if the NT Govt had not acted and was unwilling to act, the Feds had to and quickly before the latte drinkers kicked up a stink over it and water it down too much.
Glen, I have tried to alert you to the facts about Brough several times. Brough’s defeat had nothing to do with the redistribution. All the suburban booths swung more than 8% against him. Brough was not popular in Longman. Popular members do not get 10.2% swings against them. Look at Peter Lindsay in Herbert – he is genuinely popular and he held out against the Rudd swing. There were good reasons for Brough being on the nose in Longman. I am aware of them but I am not going to describe them here. I suggest you contact someone in the Qld Liberal Party and they will give you chapter and verse on why he is a big fat dud. He will not be back, so get over it.
Adam he got a swing to him of 6% + in 2004, plus the swings against the Coalition in QLD were larger than elsewhere on average. Adam i know of the personal family issues to which you refer…
As shown last night on ‘The Howard Years’.
The Liberals had tried “watering down” SerfChoices. No bounce.
They tried huge budget tax cuts. No bounce.
They acted on Hicks at last (though with an embargo on his being able to speak till after the election). No bounce.
The Intervention – scribbled on the back of a table napkin one weekend by the harsh, victim-blamer, go-in-all-guns-blazing Brough – was just another electoral gimmick tried by Howard who had a long reputation of ambivalence toward Aboriginal people.
No bounce.
Only the political effectiveness would have been tarnished, not the policy effectiveness. A responsible government puts the latter before the former.After watching last nights dreary conclusion of Grumpy Old Men – The Kirribili Eviction, we can all pretty much see which category the NT intervention fell under as far as Howard was concerned.
Brough on the other hand just had a ridiculously simplistic view of the world bordering on delusional.
I guess if you had read and heard about the kind of things going on in those communities as Mal Brough did, you’d have a simplistic view about the need for something to be done ASAP.
Simplistic “solutions” aimed at consolidating support among simple-minded conservatives.
“None so deaf as those who will not hear.” OK Glen you can continue with your Broughian fantasies, but they will avail you nought.
Cuppa it’s nice to know you’d have done nothing and let that kind of crap continue to go on in those communities…it brings a new meaning to the lable compasionate left winger!
Does “ASAP” mean “in the last year of the government’s fourth term”?
The only Qld Libs who are earning their pay IMHO are Ciobo, Mason, Brandis and Trood, who are all quite smart and presentable. Boyce and Robert may join them in time. The rest are either past it or useless.
237 – oh please
I was disapointed that Peter Dutton hung on last time.
Hopefully the good people of Dixon put him out of his misery at the next go round.
Glen
If you had been seeing these kinds of things going on in those communities for 30 odd years, and been to planning meetings, written funding submissions, lived in the communities and managed programs during any part of that, and watched the never-ending spiral of hope generated by new policies followed by funding cuts, rejection of ideas, ignorance and grandstanding – not to mention blame-the-victim, then you would recognise the stench of hypocrisy in the Howard/Brough ’solution’.
ShowsOn ATSIC and the rest of those bodies did nothing, and it was only then we had enough reports into it to justify such measures.
Glen, you don’t find it revealing that the Liberals waited till the darkest, most desperate days in the headlight of an approaching election train wreck – when they urgently needed a rabbit to pull out of a hat – to “act” after a decade of ambivalence?
Dutton was a tolerably competent junior minister. In a frontline portfolio he is waaaay out of his depth. Roxon may not have Gillard’s glamour status but she is a very tough cookie. Dutton is not up to dealing with her.
Itep
“It’s pretty hard to assess the outcomes of the intervention when there were never any performance indicators set when it began ”
Looking at a geograpghy map would have helped Its th geography issue no one wants to face
Aborigines for reasons incl cultural want to live in a particular location Th location may be suitable for traditional tribal hunting & living However th locations ar often totaly unsuitable to sustain a western econamy and/or provide employemnt and/or entertainment , and especialy re services available Social consequences arise and people wonder why , and won’t look at a map Sometimes everyone is at fault and sometimes no one is , but problams remain irrspective
I rate Dutton highly.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/aboriginal-quick-fix-a-sham-hulls/2007/07/12/1183833691181.html
David Rood, The Age, 13 July 2007
Aboriginal ‘quick fix’ a sham: Hulls
Gary Morgan reckons unemployment rate is actually 6.4% if you include underemployed (people who want more work) or people who have become so disillusioned they aren’t actually looking for work at the moment.
if comments get held up no one goes back to look at them, what’s the storey will
246 – Glen if you believe this line of argument you’ll believe anything.
With the next federal election about 16 months out, momentum can be built from here.
Especially after everyone receives their Xmas pressies.
The libs will be smashed in 2010
If the Liberal Party are to base their leadership on how they performed in their own seats then Petro would be leader, Petro only suffered a 0.5% swing, both Peter Costello and Malcolm Turbull did quite well in holding their own seats and even Joe Hockey did well in North Sydney.
The simple truth is while Mal might have got things right regarding the Intervention but if his involement in welfare is anything to go by then its a plain as daylight as to why he lost his seat.
Adam makes a great point about Peter Lindsay in Herbert, a seat that the Liberals held while other North Queensland seats like Leichhart and Dawson fell to Rudd.
The only solution for the Liberal Party is too stick with Malcolm and as someone else wrote come out and fully apologise for several of the silly policies they tried on the Australian people.
I found one thing distrubing in last nights Howard’s end! the way the Liberals seemed to think the reason for losing wasn’t that Workchoices was bad policy but was simplly poorly sold.
Here is some free advise to the Liberal Party!! Until you come to grips with what was wrong with Workchoices do not even think about putting any Party pamplet any where near my mail-box.
Dare I start on about the Liberal Party’s failed welfare policies and Iraq, I want to hear members of the Liberal Party to conceed that Howard’s Republican ideals have no place in Australian politics in any future Liberal Party Government.
At this point of time I am not convinced Malcolm Turnbull is the highly Intelligent person I keep hearing his supporters say he is! for what I have seen as been a poorly co-ordinated attack on a first term Government, the worry for the opposition is now that the Government has got its bearings they should beable to reduce the number of errors.
While on economic matters I find it amazing that we have the CEO or Myrrill Lynch asking for a massive bonus, I find it outrages that in a time when the worlds banks are needing the Government to keep them afloat that they still think they should obtain massive bonus.
I would like to see Wayne Swn call in the ANZ and demand a good reason for the 800 job loses, considering the Government will not allow the ANZ to fall over and its a known fact that laying people off will lead to reduced consumer confidence that in turn will reduce business confidence.
It seems that our Banks are wanting their cake and to eat it as well!! I don’t see Malcolm Turnbull addressing these issues opps that might mean focusing on the real issues rather than whatever Turnbull has been focusing on!!
You won’t find me defending corrupt organisations like ATSIC. Abolishing ATSIC was initially Mark Latham’s idea.
But I thought time was of the essence! I thought we had to do something ASAP that the Hawke and Keating governments didn’t do! Now you are contradicting Brough by saying we needed due process to identify the problem.
Hear hear. How does the Victorian ALP produce people like Gillard and Roxon? Or do they just appear fully formed?
At what?
But with ATSIC in place as Brough said it would have been impossible.
Possum at Shouting during QT.
Why and how? The commonwealth has power to legislate on behalf of territory’s.
ATSIC never had that power.
centaur009!! You may well be right but for the ALP to win the next poll in a landslide then several things need to happen.
1) The Economy remains recession free or if it falls into one that it is a shallow recession
2) The Liberal Party continue to be a disunified joke
3) The Government does not make a mess of the ETS
4) what would Rudd’s second term agenda be
5) The impact of NSW’s continued declind.
It is silly to try and predict the next election result 16 months out sure the signs are there that the ALP will be returned but things can change very quickly.
So you should Glen about Dutton , he’s got a mind , queston is politcal skills
did you see Howard Years I thought downer came out of it by far th best & his colleagues did confirm he often stood up to howard….no one else seemed to
With NT , according to Brough , Howard strolled into cabinet with lump of papers (NT Itervention) , announsed it and everyone just got up and clapped Do you believe Brough’s version
OT – If you have a bit of time on your hands, the following is an absolutely brilliant read :
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom/comments
The era that defined Wall Street is finally, officially over. Michael Lewis, who chronicled its excess in Liar’s Poker, returns to his old haunt to figure out what went wrong.
I ended up pasting it into MS Word and printing it out – it runs to 12 pages.
It is well worth the trouble
Old habits run deep. Might have something to do with his being an ex-Merchant Banker.
Reminds me a little of the James Bidgood beat-up last week. He happened to be on the scene when a man tried to set fire to himself. Bidgood’s immediate response was to reach for the camera – he’s an ex-photojournalist or something along that line.
I daresay politician’s actions / attitudes are sometimes coloured by their past employment attachments.
Like Turnbull with his past attachment to the banking “industry” perhaps. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gives banks a fair amount of latitude.
The correct link is :
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom
Watched the extended interview with Hockey on The Howard Years website – “Joe Hockey on Work Choices”.
Here’s an extremely telling statement by him:
Adam warned about hubris last night. You wouldn’t listen!! We’ve been dragging Turnbull’s political corpse around behind the chariot like Achilles. This thing ain’t over yet. Although I would prefer to be Achilles than the corpse of Hector.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24773510-5018001,00.html
Malcolm may need to attack Rudd on border security….his approach is not sending the right messages to que jumpers…
Rudd hasnt come up with the quote that defines his Prime Ministership…but one that defined his Opposition days….
“I don’t know what planet Mr Downer is on, but he’s not on planet New Orleans,”
Nothing can beat Howard’s
‘We will decide who comes to this country, and the circumstances in which they come!’
Grog at 267
Yes, they did it with cold-blooded intent (as Julia puts it). They knew exactly what they were doing, and they had no intention of doing it any differently (till the political heat turned up on them). Also, as Julia and many on the Labor side say, SerfChoices is in the Liberal genes, and I believe strongly they would do the same again, or worse, if they ever got back into power. The electorate must never be allowed to forget the threat the Liberal Party represents to employees, their standard of living and workplace dignity.
I like a political commentator who has read his (or her) Homer.
#248
Dutton comes across as a quite aggressive, intimidating type to me. Yes, Roxon is very good and one of the few ministers among a boring front bench who is entertaining in question time.
Glen #269,
The Howard quote is not original – plagiarised right out of Pauline Hanson’s maiden speech to parliament.
“Immigration and multiculturalism are issues that this government is trying to address, but for far too long ordinary Australians have been kept out of any debate by the major parties. I and most Australians want our immigration policy radically reviewed and that of multiculturalism abolished. I believe we are in danger of being swamped by Asians. Between 1984 and 1995, 40 per cent of all migrants coming into this country were of Asian origin. They have their own culture and religion, form ghettos and do not assimilate. Of course, I will be called racist but, if I can invite whom I want into my home, then I should have the right to have a say in who comes into my country.”
Same idea, different circumstances….
Howard the plagiarist, role model for Bishop.
Cuppa he’s not a plagiarist, the words each person used were completely different.
Be fair cuppa!
Howard wasn’t plagiarising Hanson’s words, just plagiarising Hanson’s political demographics
#269
Glen, it is telling that the quote you trumpet expresses Howard’s nastiest, most divisive policy. One can only hope that the history books will indeed record it as the defining moment of his prime ministership.
To be fair to Howard, he did NOT say that our selection of who comes into Australia should be on racial grounds.
Same idea. In a peer-reviewed journal, you would have to reference it.
And a trailing smiley goes with that – a bit of premature eblogication there.
Glen at 277 wrote:
Glen, plagiarism refers not only to the direct quoting of words (ala Bishop), but also to unattributed ideas.
Cuppa but the idea as Adam said was different…Howard was discluding people because of race but because he wanted a tougher border protect policy and stop people smugglers…different in many ways…
Glen
In 1996 the Howard Government cut $400 odd million out of the ATSIC budget which closed down all of the Women’s Centres throughout remote Australia. The very centres that were providing support to woman and children.
The discussion on this blog about ATSIC is so ill-informed that it is really not worth my time responding too. Like the MSM you are conflating the reported actions of a number of Commissioners with the entire organisation. Even Ministers Ruddock and Vanstone were keen to keep ATSIC at a regional level – where some good outcomes were being achieved.
One of the major problems in remote Australia was that up to 60% of Aboriginal families living in remote communities had NO INCOME (not even welfare income) because of the totally ineffective way in which Centrelink serviced these communities. Entire families of 20 odd lived on one old persons pension and this was occurring across multiple communities. In this situation it always surprised me that there wasn’t more petrol sniffing, because it is a hunger suppressant.
My one hope with welfare quarantining was that people would actually receive their entitlements!
As for Mal Brough he was as popular in the NT as he was in his own seat, helping Warren Snowdon to get up to 95% of the vote in some booths
Glen, compare these two statements before trying to argue that Howard’s idea was derivative of Hanson’s.
Hanson:
Howard:
Didn’t Kevin Andrews want to disclude Sudanese refugees because of their race?
Why should there be any surprise at closeness of words of Hansen & Howard
Both involved ‘oz’ Govt deciding who comes But there emigration principals were completely different , and its nonsense to suggest Howard’s was based on Hansen’s racial base
I do think it’s stretching a point to accuse Howard of outright racism. The racial mix of Australia’s migrant intake did not change during the Howard years, despite pressure from Hanson. Anyway Hanson missed the point. Australians no longer give a toss about Asian immigration. In the wake of 9/11 etc what now concerns people is Muslim immigration, and it was that fear that Howard was exploiting over Tampa. If the Tampa had been full of Vietnamese it never would have been an issue.
Not sure if this has been posted
Antony Green – making a lot of sense (as usual)
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/12/bad-coalition-n.html
Ron, there was clear plagiarism by Howard of Hanson in the way she phrased her statement. The circumstances being different is beside the point to the plagiarising of the “ideas” of the phraseology.
Antony Green speaks a lot of sense but good sense isn’t what sells papers!
268 – Dio what you quote is the result of what already exists out there and has done so for awhile in voterland. Yet Rudd is still getting high marks. While Rudd is seen to be trying to stave off these disasterous effects from the GFC he will remain ahead of the political pack, of that I have no doubt.
I find it hard to believe that Howard was not pitching to underlying racism. The government went out of its way to “dehumanize” the asylum seekers, as they say. They would not allow us to get to know them or their stories.
Triton, that’s true but I don’t think it was based on their race. The real fear factor was that they were Muslims. Australians were and still are very ambivalent about Muslim immigration, and not without some reason.
Antony Green is arguing that this Newspoll might be a rogue poll. Interesting, Essential Research produces an identical 2pp in their latest poll.
“If the Tampa had been full of Vietnamese it never would have been an issue.”
If there were enough Tampa’s full of Vietnamese of course it would be an issue
any countrys population will be concerned at potential unrestricted numbers just arriving on our shores , unvetted
Ron, yes that may be true, but there weren’t multiple Tampas, there was only one, and it was full of Muslims. If they had been Vietnamese Howard would not have pulled the stunt he did. He knew that a boatload of Muslims of unknown origin would hit a hot button, and he was right.
Antony says:
err what… even us???
#296
Yes, but like needs to be compared with like. Morgan polls, for example, routinely have a gap that large or larger when other polls don’t. If Essential Research has been tracking Newspoll then it’s less likely to be a rogue poll (I don’t have ER’s earlier polls).
I bet Antony won’t take his own advice. I bet Antony will think about politics while opening his Xmas presents.
Antony:
While I agree with the point that Antony makes here, I think it is SAD that the average Australian doesn’t really care what happens in the Australian Senate.
Triton,
Both polls have Labor going up. Essential Research up 1% (margin of error). Newspoll up 4% (outside MoE). Maybe there’s something in that. But then, maybe not. Next Newspoll will be revealing, as Antony said.
I assume the next Newspoll won’t be until February. There’s no point polling between mid Dec and Australia Day, when the country is asleep.
“Ron, yes that may be true, but there weren’t multiple Tampas, there was only one, and it was full of Muslims”
I agree fact they were Muslims may hav inflamed issue “abit” (but in 2004 th sentiment of conern re Muslims is not what I feel its today , and replication today with Muslims only aboard sense impact would be greater
My sense is battlers/swinging voters did relect Howards more genric message of ‘we decide who will come’…with th unsaid “fear” that an unlimited number of these boats from anywhere from any Asian/otherwise country may just rock up …and we cann’t have that
And its a generic emigration argument (with undelying numbers fear elemment ) that any country should hav there population on side with (which i feel was Beasley’s fatal error not identifying)
So Newspoll goes into vacation for the next few weeks. Do any polling companies produce polls during over Christmas / New Year? Would be interesting to see, historically, whether the festive season – with the spirit of goodwill to all men – is kindlier to incumbents.
Of course he would have
But doesn’t Bennelong have a high proportion of Vietnamese migrants (and a lot of Chinese)?
If Tampa was full of Vietnamese, then it would’ve killed off his chance of winning his own seat.
No I think Bennelong’s Asians are mostly Chinese and Koreans – they’re a good deal wealthier than the Vietnamese.
I find some of what Antony said contradictory. He concedes that a jump of 4% is “statistically significant”, yet considers one of the possibilities for it to be “noise”. I would have thought that, in statistical jargon, a change can be either statistically significant or just noise, but not both.
I don’t want to nitpick too much, but I work in an industry in which “noise” really is noise (i.e., random fluctuations), but you don’t really get that in opinion polls. Everyone is giving their opinions. What happens in opinion polls is uncertainty about how well the sample represents the population, so I take Antony’s “noise” to mean that the sample, by luck perhaps, may have departed more than usual from the population (i.e., a sample that has a particularly small probability of occurring in a random selection of people).
The Daily Telegraph have decided they don’t like Rudd’s 10 billion dollar stimulus package so they asked people what they would send it on. A very scientific poll this.
After getting the result they desire they then ask the question “Was Kevin Rudd’s $10 billion stimulus package poorly conceived?
Yes – not everyone gets it and many who don’t aren’t spending it.
No – it’s not perfect but the general effect is to boost the economy.”
Push polling at its best.
Of course we know the readers of the Tele are representative of the average voter don’t we?
Antony has his stats wrong. A jump in Newspoll from 55% to 59% isnt statistically significant. While one is outside the margin or error of the other – that’s not what matters. The 55 could have been anywhere between 52 and 58 with an MoE (usual caveats) of plus or minus 3% while the 59 could be anywhere between 56 and 62.
There’s a large enough overlap there to knock out the hypothesis of the two pecentages being different at the 95% confidence level.
Anyhow, Essential Report seemed to undergo a structural change about a month ago and ever since has been tracking near indentically to Newspoll. The move to Labor has happened over the last month (a move that is statistically significant BTW over that time period if we use all the data available) rather than the last week or two.
There has also been a trend away from the Coalition starting the week after the Turnbull ascension. That too is statistically significant and feeds into the last month’s change in the polls.
There’s movement at the station alright, but it’s not for the reasons the MSM are banging on about, nor is it something that has suddenly occurred.
I tested that this morning Cuppa – there’s no singificant relationship between the festive season and a stronger vote for any side.
Let the record note that I agree with the Marsupial.
Thanks for the answer, Possum. I was wondering about that.
We should not make this a regular habit.
314 has been noted!!
316 Feel the love!! it makes one feel all fluffy
It must be the holiday season!
Glen, Ron, G.P., E.S.J. ! I loves yous all!
shows
you are one sick puppy
I have nothing against possums except when the copulate in my ceiling or predict that Labor will win Warringah. That’s when I call Pete the Possum Man.
What do people think of the latest Meganomics post?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/call_to_those_with_most_to_lose/
He thinks it is unfair handing big cheques to low and middle income families, then asking them to spend it. If the economy does head down, they’ll need that money to pay long term debts like the mortage.
For pensioners it makes more sense, because they rarely have any long term debts. They generally live week to week.
If the economy does head down, I think Rudd should try to wedge the Liberals by proposing another stimulus package, but funding it by 1) delaying the high income tax cuts for another year 2) Going in to deficit.
I really can’t see how the Liberals can argue that a surplus is sacrosanct, if it comes at the expense of a few hundred thousand jobs.
If I wasn’t convinced that you’d probably enjoy it Adam, I’d stick you over my knee and spank you about now with these tiresome digs on mythical predictions.
321 Shows
Just watch them.
I don’t think they think they’re being political about it either – they’re just that damn simple.
The mantra that Rudd has just spent 10 years of Cossie’s surpluses is already out there in common usage.
What’s that line from Fawrest Gump?
I’m not that fussed about the high income earners – if they can manage to maintain their incomes in a recession then good luck to them. There are a lot of ‘essentials’ that have already been shifted into the luxury column in peoples minds. The community will do a lot of ‘policing’ of high incomes on their own.
Wow – an opportunity to take issue with both Possum and Antony!
re the Newspoll 2PP change – if the Labor 2PP has changed from exactly 55 to exactly 59 then Possum technically right – it’s a borderline call but just falls into the “non-significant” category. But if the actual change was not 4% but 4.2% (quite possible because of rounding) it becomes significant.
So either could be wrong – or right.
Lucky we have Possums graphs to show us what is really happening.
I don’t think the average Joe cares about surpluses anymore.
Lots of people say to me “why does the government need a surplus anyway? They should either spend it on things we need, or give it back as tax cuts”.
If there was ever a time to spend all the surplus, then so be it. Some U.S. eocnomists say that Obama should spend over the next 2 years so that debt to GDP is 10%. They say that is how much the Government needs to spend to actually help the economy start growing again. Everything else is a drop in the ocean.
Winston – the 95% confidence interval between the difference in the two means of 55 and 59 is bang on 4% assuming a pure random sample.
Newspoll isnt a pure random sample though, it’s stratified at the very least, so the standard deviations on each poll blow out larger than they would for a pure random sample.
Without knowing the exact stratification weights, we cant say exactly what the confidence interval really is, but we can say that it’s at least 5%. Certainly greater than 4%.
#309 –
Please explain.
Mainland Chinese?
Taiwanese Chinese?
Hongker Chinese?
Vietnamese Chinese?
Malaysian Chinese?
Singaporean Chinese?
Indonesian Chinese?
They look the same. Feel the same, but they are chalk and cheese.
Do you think it is right to say that during 2007, Newspoll over stated Labor’s 2pp vote?
327 Finns – lots of ABC’s too – Australian born Chinese.
‘look the same’ might be stretching the bounds of taste in the wrong cultural setting and might say more about the viewer than the subject…
I’m sure you meant no offence. Neither do I.
They’re all Australians anyway – that’s why they’re voting right?
I also agree that the surplus soundbite won’t work now. It was only important to people when the Libs could link it to lower interest rates. But with that fear dead and burried it means nothing. Given a choice between unemployment and no surplus there is no choice to make for most people.
2006 census Bennelong: birthplace
Australia 38,029
China 4,255
Hong Kong 2,209
R of Korea 1,972
India 1,514
Malaysia 769
Philippines 510
Indonesia 472
Vietnam 320
Singapore 235
Thailand 120
Total 67,587
Yes but there will most likely be a deficit and a high unemployment rate.
ABCs – even more striking. Of 68,199 persons in Bennelong, 22,239 described their ancestry as Chinese by birthplace of parents.
Further to debates about the stimulus, and Turnbull’s silly suggestion that a tax cut woudl be better, there is an article by James K Galbraith (John’s sone and also a professor of economics) in Mother Jones.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2009/01/stimulus-is-for-suckers.html
Note the graph at the bottom – payments to the poor and spending on infrastructure and states (services) get a much better stimulatory return than tax cuts.
Who can say? The only data we can compare it with is election day itself where it was bang on (i.e. the election results was within the margin of error of the final poll). So using just what we know, it was right.
No, the VOTERS overstated the Labor vote – more people told pollsters through the year that they would do so than did so when the pencil was actually in their trembling hand. In other words, there was a Narrowing. Possum’s long-term 2PP shows this clearly. The Labor 2PP forms a V shape with election day at the bottom of the V.
Adam or Poss
Is there any evidence on patterns in “narrowing” behavior? Does it happen to both sides when theya re in front? Should we expect to see it again this time with Labor in government?
Amigo FINNS
“They look the same. Feel the same, but they are chalk and cheese.”
But numbers people in trees say 55/45 “could be a range of 58/42 OR 52/48 …so I mean th MOE makes it hard for th most incompetent to be wrong
So with those MOE’s added th 59/41 is not so far out to 55/45 , and thats chalk and cheese But if you want to look at fluff instead , 59/41 is so delusional vs 2010
reckon 59/41 is fantasyland far out , what Greens down to 7% , labor at 48% primary
The Bennelong stats show that Hanson was right – Australia IS filling up with Asians, as is inevitable given our geographic location, our high migrant intake and our non-discriminatory immigration policy. The point she missed is that no-one cares. We’ve decided we like East Asians and South-East Asians, and probably Indians too, unless they look like MGBs (Muslim Guys with Beards), whom we don’t like. Australia’s demographic destiny is gradually to be assimilated into our region. Resistance is futile.
And pointless.
I presume this is the “shy Tory” factor at work again…
As for Bennelong, it is quite typical of seats in that area. Namely – it’s an area where middle-class to wealthy migrants head to when they want to get closer to the city. In about 10 years, it is likely that a seat like North Sydney will look more and more like Bennelong does not (particularly as it stretches ever closer to Chatswood). Bennelong will probably follow Lowe in terms of political (if not ethnic) demographic shifts…
Gary Bruce 311
Those Terrograph polls are a joke. The last one even stated that 60% taking part in poll admitted to voting Coalition at last election.
I notice in this poll the Yes vote is
actually for a negative response and the No is for those agreeing with Govt.
I looked at this way back in September last year and couldn’t find any pattern or otherwise over when it happens. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2007/09/27/the-narrowing/
How craptastic are those graphs!
They should ask people to state who they voted for a tthe last election, then weight accordingly.
It would make the poll at least SLIGHTLY more informative.
Speaking of Bonuses, here is the WA Govt’s “Contribution” for Seniors Card Holders.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/09/2441537.htm
They need to apply for it? What’s the cost of processing the applications?
“How CRAPTASTIC are those graphs”
So they’re 1/2 pregnant…we can choose if they ar crap or fantastic
I’m not sure but I’m assuming there is no cost.
Here is the Minister’s Media Release.
http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Results.aspx?ItemID=131020
Kevin Andrews is the next one who ought to be worried. 15,000 people in Menzies identify as Chinese by ancestry. Having one or both parents born in a non-English speaking country is the most powerful predictor of Labor voting, and Menzies has the highest proportion of such people of any Coalition-held electorate. (Not all of them are citizens of course, but more will be over time.)
Yep Ron, it’s a thing I like to call GraphChoices.
And like it’s forebear, we don’t have to buy a vowel to know it’s the former.
Poss 343
Thanks I see what you mean – pattern, what pattern? So the “narrowing” is not an inevitability but just a narrative they run in hope people will believe them and make it self-fulfilling. Either way, 2010 looks promising for Labor if these figures continue and nobody succumbs to hubris.
#339, So Adam, two wongs do make a white?
dont forget it was a chinese who “discovered” Australia first in 1541. but they chinese were never a colonialist anyway. pls dont start on Tibet.
“GraphChoices” …WorkChoices
anyting with “choices” after it should be questioned , whereas vowels ar a coice dicretion without howardism
I know parliament is out now but hearing of Andrew’s seat reminds me – doesn’t that British trial end soon allowing the Haneef inquiry details to be released? That should be great for his relection prospects. Does anyone know the date?
FINNS “#339, So Adam, two wongs do make a white?”
glad you did not say “two rons make a ‘right’ “
Amigo Ronnie -
It is good to see you still remember the way we were.
http://www.abbottandcostellocollectibles.com/images/bp_200-002.jpg
Remember we were the Three stooges according to the refugees of the G island. In particular the Lady on the High Horse.
btw: you are always right and Diog is always WRONG, even when he was right.
“two rons make a ‘right’ “ None of us would say that Ron!
Meh. People lie.
WA Seniors Minister Slams Rudd’s payment.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/seniors-to-receive-postchristmas-bonus-20081209-6ujq.html
Sooner Malcolm and company sort this one out as per above, the better off we will all be
Turnbull has taken teh blame for the latest poor poll result!!http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/09/2441786.htm?section=justin
He said
“Naturally I take responsibility for our performance, but we are a strong team and this is a very dynamic political environment,” he said.
“We are holding the Government to account – but holding them to account in a constructive way.”
If you insert “not” after every instance of the word “are” and “non” before “constructive” then the statement is accurate.
Sorry I mis-typed, that link should be
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/09/2441786.htm?section=justin
I think everyone over-analysis the polls. I’m with Adam about poll results. You can count the governments that have achieved more than 54% 2PP on one hand. Labor’s 2PP last year was 52.7%. In the last two years, only two Newspolls have recorded that result, and both were in the same month as last year’s election. Was the election closer than last year’s opinion polls because the Coalition campaigned better, or because closer to election day, people were focusing more on who they were going to vote for? (Or ‘for whom they were going to vote’ for the pedants.)
All this predicting where the polls are going will mean nothing if the economy tanks in the new year. For all the talk of budget deficits, it’s not this financial year that matters as the company tax received is for last financial year. The problem is next financial year and the one that follows when the company tax will be based on profits in a slowing economy. And the next two financial years are closer to the next election than this. Malcolm Turnbull was predicting earlier this year that the Reserve Bank was wrong in putting up interest rates. A lucky guess or was he right? Was it just luck that he was right?
I suppose I’ve covered elections for a long time and I have a long memory. But here’s a few predictions I have been assured of in the past.
(1) A senior ‘Australian’ newspaper columnist once assured me “I cannot think of anybody less likely to become Premier of South Australia than Mike Rann”
(2) Bob Carr is too intellectual to win a NSW election. (And that view came from within the Labor Party)
(3) Jeff Kennett is a boofhead. Victorians will never make him Premier.
(4) John Brumby will never be Premier of Victoria. (Though I admit on that one, he is yet to win an election.)
(5) Kevin Rudd leading the Labor Party? What have you been smoking?
, and that is getting terribly close to the next election.
I didn’t make that point on the newspolls clear enough. A lot of newspolls were within that margin of error, but in all but one case, above the actual result.
True Antony, I can still remember what they said about Joh Bjelke-Petersen becoming an “interim” premier of Queensland when I was still in school many years ago. I had finished uni before he lost.
Adam, was the Alfred Deakin quote you were after the one where he described Billy Hughes as behaving like an urchin dragged kicking and screaming from a tart shop?
Please oh God please please please, this would be the next best political Chrissy present for me besides Obama having been elected ….
….
Picking Gore would be astute; that will be a tough job. Its all very well to say that they must meet emission targets, but when it comes to closing down highly polluting old coal power plants in poor states like Tennessee it won’t be fun. It fits in to the “He was right” theme though.
Although that may say more about your peer group than the utility of poll tracking
In the case of some of those predictions, they were made with access to party polling.
Anyone who has looked at Senate QT lately can see that 37 whites don’t make a Wong.
Antony, yes, and also the one about Judas Iscariot.
Sir William Lyne, who stayed loyal to Labor, shouted at Deakin: “Judas! Judas! Judas!” Labor’s Billy Hughes replied mildly: “I do not agree with that; it is not fair to Judas, for whom there this is to be said, that he did not gag the man whom he betrayed, nor did he fail to hang himself afterwards.”
Does the coaltion have any Asian background member in federal parliament? If they have no appeal to that group they are writing off a large demographic.
Adam, that was so bad I’m crying.
Antony seems to have forgotten that this site is called “The Poll Bludger”. Analysing, indeed, over-analysing polls is what we do.
Well it looks like I was wrong, an 8 year old kid isn’t going to makes a fool of Conroy, it would seem the ISPs don’t want to waste the time or money just so we can all have a bit of fun. I suppose in a recession we all have to cut back.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/12/09/1228584820006.html
Michael Johnson is half Chinese. He won Liberal endorsement for Ryan by branch-stacking in Hong Kong. They did have a very mild-mannered Senator called Tsebin Tchen but they dumped him after one term.
And a poor grasp of the nature and meaning of qual stats. Even the most advanced market research analysis doesnt have much to say on character hedonics that isnt already fairly obvious.
I think they have an appeal to a portion of that demographic, particularly the wealthy, that will be there regardless of whether or not they run candidates of an Asian background.
I mean Labor’s not had an Asian member for Kingsford-Smith but always manage to hold it and Wong’s only been in since 2004.
juliem 368
Just reading that piece in full now it does seem purely speculation. Lots of coulds and mights. There are lot of reasons why Gore might meet Obama and Bidden given his party role. also, I am wondering if he woudl want to do it? Like I said, I actually think it will be a tough job. Of course, I agree it would eb great if he did it. I heard Gore speak on transport policy in 1997 and he was very knowledgeable on both the problems and realistic solutions. He was also much less wooden than claimed.
Telstra is obviously in a major sulk.
And of course there was the infamous Bill O’Chee – what has happened to him?
And Internode? And iiNet? And Optus?
Ahhhh I sort of don’t want to get another filtering debate going on, it’s been a long day.
And even the most advanced statistical analysis can’t predict the future. It can only model it based on past experience. Anyone for driving home using only the rear vision mirror of their car?
Thanks Adam; I’d forgotten Michael Johnson. Then again, I am now trying to remember what Johnson has done after 6 or more years in parliament, so perhaps its a case of who forgot who?
Socrates, I know it is speculation at this point. That is why I prefaced the quote with heaps of “pleases”
…….
But if the margin of error is so big, why doesn’t Newspoll up their sample, but poll less frequently?
I think this just supports your point that polling has become part of the entertainment industry.
And current status, and voter ID strength among certain demographics and issue positioning relativities. You can predict about 70% of it, 80 if your lucky and people are fortuitously boring.
It’s who can do the next 10% well and use it to guide their policy context that wins and loses most elections today.2001, 2004 and 2007 federally being classic cases in point, the last Qld State election and the last NSW State election can be added to that list as well.
So saying, a lot of things are polled even with party polling, but not all of them are of equal importance. Most of them go to little more than sensitivity analysis when you get right down to it. And life always throws curve balls that stuffs things up – the dastardly exogenous event.
I do it everyday – I’m an economist
Things are just warming up…
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24775265-29277,00.html
Interesting he says “Barnaby Joyce and the Nationals” should leave, considering Barnaby isn’t even the leader. His profile is so high that I’m sure most think he is and that’s why it’s damaging to the Coalition when he “rebels”. Though then again he is actually leader in the Senate.
“I do it everyday – I’m an economist ”
Fortunately thats why we engineers design roads for people in the bottom 15% of the eyesight distribution.
And for that we are immensely thankful as a human sub-species Socrates!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081208.wquebecelection1208_1/BNStory/politics/home
Liberals win a majority in Quebec.
ShowsOn, the point I’m making was that almost every poll was above the actual election result, though quite a few had the actual result within their margin of error. If it was a margin of error issue, there would have been a few polls below the actual result. I’m just making the point that for two years the polls have had a higher Labor vote than was recorded at last year’s Federal election.
There’s no point getting obsessed about the margin of error. Getting the margin of error down becomes exponential in terms of the number of extra interviews you need to do to cut the margin of error by 1%. Possum can no tell you the exact numbers. All polls are a balance between cost and accuracy, which is why Pollsters do bigger samples for their final poll. You want to ensure you are as accurate as possible for the final poll everyone remembers.
But with the Nats losing seats in the House, the Nat Senate leader is effectively more powerful. I think Joyce can influence his collegues more than Warren ‘Who?’ Truss can.
I agree with Stone’s assessment. The Nationals should say they will promise to help the LIberals form a a government, but that is it. In the Senate they should deal with everything on a case by case basis.
You also have to remember Antony that the polls reflected reality last year and it wasnt until the Tuesday and Wednesday of the last week according to the party pollsters that there was a serious rushback to Howard from the undecideds and softish Labor voters.
People can, and often do change their political minds
Possum #389 – I think that is gibberish dressed up as something deep.
But does it make sense that thousands of people changed their minds in a very short time frame, or is it more likely that the polls CONSISTENTLY over stated the ACTUAL position?
Was it deeper than these airbrushed Jessica Alba Campari pics?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/08/jessica-alba-airbrushed-t_n_149182.html
/joke
Possum, I do remember they change their minds right up until the last minute, which is why Adam and I were disagreeing with your predictions for most of last year. Every poll until November last year predicted the biggest Labor victory in Australian history.
The public polls picked it up as well – it’s actually part of the reason why Nielsen was out.
So, isn’t it possible that these polls were actually wrong?
Is there a problem with poll sampling in terms of urban/rural bias? I ask because it seems to me that some polls seem to have overestimated the green vote and underestiamted the Nationals vote. I can imagine they structure samples to cover age/sex demographics, but it must be hard to sample some rural electorates.
Socrates, couldn’t they select households at random but using certain telephone interchanges as their initial sort point? That seems to be the only way I can think of to make sure you are flagging rural households …..
I only made two predictions, one from May using economic data as a driving force behind polling and the other trying to model Newspoll data using the data before the election campaign itself, and trying to capture the weird dynamics that happen in election campaigns by using reversion to mean driven by satisfaction dynamics. The former was 53.7 the other 55 point something. What you and Adam were calling predictions were nothing of the sort, anymore than any poll is a prediction (which it’s clearly not).
I still to this day dont understand why both of you took them to be prophetic when they were clearly marked as the current state of polling play.
Historically there can be and has been before – it’s usually linked into the problems of accurately polling the minor party vote (although with the Nats you get the effect with some pollsters where some actual Nats voters tell pollsters they’ll be voting Liberal even though they cant at the next election)
juliem
I don’t kow – most of my (transport) work has been in urban areas. It is often hard ot get information on large rural areas due to low population density. But I don’t really know – thats why I was asking.
402
How do you define wrong.
Were people lying to the pollster, themselves, both?
Pollsters measure expressed intentions.
Polls measure actions.
Should pollsters be able to measure the difference?
ShowsOn – essentially they were all wrong because they didn’t match the actual election result, but they were probably right on the weekend they were taken. It’s just that when people came to vote on election day, they had changed their minds. Polls are a snapshot of when taken, but using them to pick the election always requires projecting into the future.
Socrates – the underestimate of the National vote is not sampling, it’s simply that many people in regional areas who say they are going to vote Liberal won’t have a Liberal to vote for. And all polls get weighted by the polling companies to try and get their sample to match the population. Polls are like sausages, everyone quibbles about their appearance but never questions the gore involved in deriving their contents.
The last polls are always most accurate because it is the point where the question “If an election were held this weekend ….” means something. That doesn’t mean you should ignore polls at other times of the electoral cycle, but it does mean they should be interpeted for meaning rather than taken as a precise measure of voting intent.
“I think that is gibberish dressed up as something deep.”
“Graphchoices”…numbers , numbers everywhere..and not a drop to think
“PsephologyChoices”….59/41 , happy to lay odds it will never happen
How do we know that the difference between the final result in Nov 07 and the polls was due to the Bradley effect, in this case that say 3% of the population were too embarrassed to admit to a pollster that they were going to vote for a carrier of the Black Plague?
my 2c worth
1.fear of the unknown (rudd)
2.lindsay effect. ie agreed with actions of the fibs
3.viral scare campaigns. ie pub/club talk that labor wouldnt pay the yrly 600 kid bonus.
I encountered all three more than once
Sorry, thought you were talking about a different post.
Which bit? Better still, what do you think the C/T Oztrack is actually about (since some of that is now effectively in the public domain for all to geek at)?
You can’t be seriously suggesting that type of work is meaningless?
Breaking down your support level into voting strength cohorts, measuring which policy positions drive the vote in which demographics, identifying political weaknesses (be it issue or characture) in your opponent in terms of what is alienating their vote potential and using all of that to, these days, not only guide but effectively blueprint a political campaign is meaningless?
Fair dinkum Antony, that’s just silly.
Antony
In that case though if its a structural problem (eg no liberal candidate) you would think over time they could learn to correct for it.
Possum, I suppose it was because of several occassions when I had very senior journalists and producers quizzing me using your seat predictions based on quarterly Newspolls. They might not have been predictions, but they caused me work as I tried to talk people out of profiling or sending very expensive live cross crews to seats which, in my judgment, were unlikely to fall. Some of your pieces ended up as Chinese Whispers, with people ringing me about what they’d heard party polling was saying when I think the actual source of their rumour were your columns. None of that’s your fault of course.
Maybe a big whopping front page sticky will be required next election titled “Journo’s – please read”.
Containing such wisdom as “this is a pendulum, this is how it works”.
It’s funny you saying that as the ones that asked me directly all knew the way it worked, but were more interested in the shifts within the pendulums – and my opinion of George Meg banging on about single mums which was weird (not George doing it, entirely valid – but others asking about it. Why not give him a call!)
Anyway – apologies for making your life difficult because of the silliness of others Antony.
What polls do not ask is how you will vote on a sunny day on 10th October 2010
Crucualy , polls do not ask how you will vote on 10th october 2010 , after hearing a yet unknown unheard ’scare’ adds campaign …..nor if in 2 years you still hav a wife , or a mortgage , or a job …and just perhaps perhaps you may make your reely 100% final decison in th last week anyway
So polls create employment and a big industry…but do not reely create a prediction , just a good feeling ….and stay away from enemy marsupial pendulims that hav wannon won by Labor
Possum, in response to my quotes of predictions made to me by people that proved wrong, you responded “Although that may say more about your peer group than the utility of poll tracking” to which I responded “In the case of some of those predictions, they were made with access to party polling.” (I’d love to quote names.)
After which there were two posts I didn’t really understand and now 412 where you suggest I’m saying that internal party polling is meaningless, which is what I though you were saying at the earlier posts.
I think we’re just talking at cross purposes. I think I know what I’m saying, and you know what you’re saying, but neither of us is sure what each other is saying. I suppose that’s why people still have conversation; its quicker to work out what someone means.
Possum, you naughty marsupial, you will force me to drag out our correspondence from last year (again) if you continue denying that you made *predictions* based on your pendulums. This is a very tiresome dispute and I’m quite happy to let it rest, but not if you continue to tell such… um… terminological inexactitudes.
With a special section for Christopher Pearson.
OK. So it is risky using past polls to predict things.
BUT, at the last election, if the only thing that stopped the Liberals from being wiped out by a huge electoral Tsuniami was a late narrowing caused by incubancy, shouldn’t that colour the way we look at polls now that they are no longer incumbents?
Especially when they can’t seem to get any closer than 54/46, which is worse than what they achieved at the last election.
There must be a reason why several state Labor governments over the last decade followed up narrow wins with landslides. The fact the Liberals don’t seem to do Opposition well must be won of them.
When the money hits the bank poll will go 60/40. There will be variation all year but not below 55/45 which is what it will be at the election- no 54/46. I wouldn’t be suprised if Costello had a shot Octoberish, giving him 6 months or so. why else would he be hanging around. He could have left with those other useful members Al, Marky and that gipsland bloke
If Costello doesn’t have a go at the leadership or return to the front bench sometime soon, it will become something of a scandal next year that he is continuing to draw a salary from the public purse while making no speeches, serving on no committees, and doing NOTHING except tout himself around whatever banks might still be hiring.
I found something that some people here might find interesting/funny.
It’s a hoax “Law” regarding the vote of the German SPD poking fun of the idea that “Correlation implies causation”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mierscheid_Law
The Vote share of the SPD equals the Index of the crude steel production in the western federal states – measured in million tonnes – in the year of the federal election.
There is a special rule for early elections. One then has to take the arithmetic mean of the regular and early year of election.
The last corroboration of the law was in the 2002 election[2] , where the West German crude steel production was 38.6 million tonnes, and the vote share of the SPD 38.5%. For the early election in 2005 the vote share was 38.4%, with a mean crude steel value of 40.0 million tonnes. Over the last 10 elections, the two values were within 2 units 9 times, and within 1 unit 7 times.]
Ready…
Costello as leader, Turnbull as deputy and shadow treasurer. By the end of next year.
Antony – I think we were. Completely.
Apologies.
Adam went:
Well Adam, it’s never amounted to a hill of beans previously, I can’t imagine it’s aged gracefully like a nice wine.
Let me save you the trouble – perhaps you should start here
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2007/09/30/my-what-a-big-swing-you-have/all-comments/#comments
…which was the first time you got confused about what a pendulum is, and have persisted with it for now well over 12 months.
Listening and watching Abbot and Downer last night I got the impression that they played Costello for a goose.
Abbott’s admission that whatever promises were made over a boozy session late at night with Costello were not to be taken seriously. How Christian is this guy supposed to be?
Then Downer seemed to play Costello as well – he was trying to keep Costello happy by murmuring sweet nothings to keep a split from opening up.
Why on earth would Costello WANT to have anything to do with that mob. And apart from that he won’t challenge Turnbull – he’ll let Glen Milne write a few nifty little columns first to stir the rest of them up.
There were loud cheers in this household again last night at the end of the Howie Years.
It appears that Saudi’s provided the money for the Pakistanis who attacked Mumbai. How much longer can the US can turn a blind eye to Saudi extremists and their seeming impunity to operate? Add 9-11 which was basically a Saudi venture and it’s pretty obvious what country is supporting Muslim terrorism the most, and it’s not Iraq surprisingly.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-12-08/did-the-saudis-help-fund-the-terror-school-behind-mumbai/
That’s a bit scarey – doesn’t the US owe the Saudis a lot in foreign loans or is that only Chinese money.
Did anyone else notcce this from Shanahan today?:
His FIRST lead? Wow, she must be a copmplete no-hoper!!! How terrible.
Gee Denis, I wonder how that squares with the 20 May Newspoll:
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0506%20Budget%2020-5-08.pdf
of which he wrote this:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,,23728206-661,00.html
Hmmm I guess we don’t count Swan beating Turnbull 40-26 when it doesn’t fit the narrative of Bishop must go… Surely she’s not so good that they have to lie to defeat her???
Most U.S. treasury bonds are bought by China and Japan.
The U.S. has a good relationship with the Saudi’s because they need their oil. They use about 1/3 of world supply.
grog
classic gotcha
(shame shana’s shame)
btw I think it’s just laziness as opposed to anything nefarious
Well disclosed Grog.
Shanahan should be sacked for his utter incompetence and uselessness. I’m sure we all would welcome his right of reply anyday on this site!
Diog, would Obi true to his words by attacking Saudi if the CIA has credible evidence like he said he would attack Pakistan likewise.
I thought the Saudis had a lot of money tied up in US – is it only in investments?
If the report that Diogenes put up is correct are the Yanks able to lean on the Saudis or will the necessity for oil stop them from doing so.
Wikipedia webpage censored in the U.K. due to album cover:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2008/dec/08/internet
You are being very kind. but you may be right given the Newspoll site itself only provides the 20 April better eco manager quesiton (Turnbull won 35-29).
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1201%20Fed%20&%20Treasurer%2009-12-2008.pdf
But still you’d think Shanahan might recall that Turnbull himself was getting beat by Swan after the budget, given the importance the Libs place on eco management…
SNIP: Notwithstanding that it was intended in jest, I don’t believe it prudent to allow this comment – The Management.
Having now grokked what Antony had earlier wrote about people with access to party polling making weird predictions based on weird things, sometimes… actually, often people will grab the wrong things from polling and use them the wrong way.
Character hedonics is a key one. Hedonics is where you analyse a “thing” not as the thing itself but as a sum of it’s respective components (in the same way you can measure a house not as four walls, but as the sum of its bathrooms, bedrooms, outdoor living areas, floor space etc etc).
So character hedonics will tell party pollsters what their candidate (and their oppositions candidates) strengths and weaknesses are on a character level – things like how trustworthy they are, their honesty, their strength to stand up to vested interests, their ability to do the right thing etc.
These in and of themselves, taken in isolation are fairly meaningless because they only really provide context about how a leader should frame an issue to cash in on a good perceived character trait (or attack an opponent based on an identified character weakness) or what to expect from the other side and how to pre-empt their attacks (since both sides know that each other are seeing pretty much the same things in the polling).
So when Kennet, for instance, was seen as a boofhead and couldnt win an election (to use one of Antony’s examples) – that is taking one of those character components and misinterpreting what it means. In and of itself, it’s meaningless – but it could be important if the ALP could have used that vein of public perception to somehow frame Kennet in a way that would get a negative public reaction (whether that be tying his boofheadedness into an inability to deal with some key sensitive issue like health, or somehow turn it into a large question mark on his ability to be premier).
Those character hedonics are measured mostly for insights into how to frame bigger, more important issues and how to attack an opposition.
The media and quite a few people that should really know better (not you BTW Antony – but certainly the origins of some of those predictions) tend to grab these character traits simply because it’s become accepted wisdom that a person with trait X cant become leader because look at what happened to Person Y. But that ignores that Person Y wasnt undone because of that trait, but how that trait was exploited combined with there actually being brainspace room in the electorate to make such exploitation an issue to begin with.
It’s not only character hedonics where this happens, but also issue positioning. We saw last year oodles of column inches dedicated to how the Coalition can win because they lead on economic management.
That’s all good and well, but it was only important if the ALP hadnt passed the threshold of credibility on economic management with the wider electorate AND it was seen as an issue important enough to override many other issues by the electorate (like Workchoices) AND the Coalition could deploy a meaningful political assault that could get the voters to focus their attention on economic management.
Individually these individual components dont say much in and of themselves – what’s important is how they all flow together. It’s unfortunate that too many people tend to grab onto the wrong things in the wrong way to end up saying things which arent really substantiated by the reality of this type of polling. Polling like this is a lethal weapon, but it needs to be interpreted in particular ways.
Its all Greek to me
Just watching the news and noticed even more riots in Greece. I know a youth was killed but this seems to be getting excessive. I know there is an asylum rule for their universities that makes them a base for opposition. Does anyone know any deeper underlying reasons for this?
Barnaby looked rattled and incoherent tonight being grilled by Red Kerry. The Newspoll numbers must have really spooked the Coalition.
They won’t need as much oil over the next couple of years if they remain in recession…
I think Obama should distance himself from the Saudi’s, but the only way he can do it is by adopting an anti-oil energy strategy.
If the U.S. remains reliant on oil, they’ll remain reliant on the Saudi’s, and even more corrupt regimes like that in equatorial Guinea:
http://www.slate.com/id/2193870/
Serious question. Did anyone think Truman was the guy who would use The Bomb when he was V.P.?
Who knows what Obama will have to respond to over the next few years and who knows how he will respond.
Bush was elected as an isolationist remember.
Woah! Barnaby said that the stimulus package will have “no effect”.
Surely THAT is a deviation from coalition policy, they are meant to PRETEND that they support it!
ShowsOn
Perhaps this may play in to Obama’s talking with Al Gore – i.e. ‘adopting an anti-oil energy strategy’.
BTW – I felt sick listening to Opposition raving on about the recent boat arrivals.
Would this have played into the newspoll because quite a few other people may have felt the same way as I did.
Rudd’s quiet ‘here we go again’ in QT was very effective but that won’t stop the Libs and their media mates trying to resurrect their story on being better national security managers.
ShowsOn – don’t you remember, it’s just a sugar hit now.
This nuke the Saudis idea is just silly, there’s more than oil and money to factor in when dealing with Saudi – it’s a religious homeland, a sacrosanct country for Muslims. What would Catholics say to the idea of nuking the Vatican? If the west thinks the Iraq was/is a mess, it would be nothing compared to the worldwide Islamic response to a physical threat to the holy land of Saudi. It ’s just silly to say the USA could spank them with bombs, and that’ll teach them a lesson, you be starting a 1000 year war if you did that, and all the money and oil in he world wouldn’t be worth the rain of pain it would bring down on an invading force.
ShowsOn, I live in hope.
Um, the Greek national character? It’s surely no coincidence that anarchy, crisis and chaos are all Greek words.
Maybe. Surely if the car industry bounces back it should do so by producing alternative energy cars.
If it comes back with petrol cars, then the industry will eventually die.
Tough to say if a single issue is producing the movement in the polls.
I would point to general things, the government generally seems to be competent, and has a rough idea of what to do about the slowing economy.
Saw a delightful piece on the 7.30 report about executive salary and may I suggest to any staffers reading that here is a place where the government can and should act. The political cost will be zero and the economic effect will actually be positive. I have done plenty of research on this and would offer the following comments:
- executive performance is NOT related to pay – on average the higher the pay the worse the return to shareholders! See
http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:Ry54wZEoO90J:www.jape.org/component/option,com_remository/Itemid,26/func,download/id,36/chk,7030a9efe74d280dc61512605ece3770/no_html,1/+shields+executive+pay&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5
- executive pay is going up faster than inflation, ordinary pay and share returns (this was true even when the market was still rising)
- our laws on exec pay are even weaker than in the US (Sarbanes Oxley Act)
- execs won’t go elsewhere if we lower their pay – our CEO pay rates are amongst the highest in the world. Only US and UK are higher; Japan, France and Germany are lower. All of our top paid 50 executives earn more than the world head of Toyota (!!). In the current climate none of them would be going anywhere. Advertise the job of CEO for Telstra at a “mere” $1 million per annum and you will still get a surprising number of applicants.
The solutions are clear:
- make shareholder votes on exec pay binding – its their money!
- make all exec bonuses and payouts taxable as income
- make all details of exec pay contracts transparent and reported, including payout clauses
- add other prohibitions as per Sarbanes Oxley Act (loans to self etc)
- require all directors to be relected at least every 3 years – they are a large part of the problem.
- require all bonuses and shares to be held for 3 years before payout to reduce fraudulent reporting and insider trading
SNIP: Notwithstanding that it was intended in jest, I don’t believe it prudent to allow this comment – The Management.
The Genius of Charles Darwin is now on the History Channel, part 1/3. watch it.
geez adam, ease up, i know you are joking, but for f’s sake. Some of the nicest people I have met are muslims. There are 2 rows to hoe, I reckon, in order to deal with Saudi, and they are somewhat in tension. 1. A major eco-cultural shift away from a reliance on fossil fuels (the mere threat of that should be enough to get some action from the Saudis) 2. A really good hard inside diplomatic game with the Saudis (the last thing you want is an overt show of force against them). That means keeping Riyadh close and talking to you, despite the fact we know elements of their religious structures are fuelling madrassa (spelling?) madness.
The Saudi’s have spent at least $87B in the last 20 years financing mosques, madrassas etc OUTSIDE the Middle East. The Russian Communist Party spent only $8B in 80 years spreading communism.
Saudi Arabia, Wahhabism and the Spread of Sunni Theofascism
http://www.annaqed.com/en/content/show.aspx?aid=15521
I’m sure no-one else noticed it, but it seems that Sky News was also rattled by this poll, as the headline for much of today was:
The Rudd government has jumped into a solid 47 point lead over the Coalition in the latest Newspoll.
Wow, really?
How is it that our inanities are jokes, but everyone else’s are evidence of right wing Lunacy…..?
Gee Adam, glad to see you take the enlightened approach.
Sorry, but that’s a stupid comment.