The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has not replicated the Newspoll bounce, but that’s cold comfort for the Coalition as they still trail 59.5-40.5, unchanged from last time. The Greens are up three points on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 50.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and the Coalition is down from 35.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent.
We also have Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group. The outstanding features is a picture of relative Labor weakness in New South Wales, consistent with the theme that the state government is damaging their brand there. Charts galore from Possum.
In other news, 65-year-old back-bencher Philip Ruddock has made the surprise announcement that he plans to run again in his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Berowra. However, he seems in some danger of being blasted out by the state party’s vigorous Right faction, which did so much to contribute to the party’s success at the last election.
UPDATE: By popular demand, here’s a chart showing how Labor’s two-party vote has tracked across Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research this year. I only have figures going back to June for Essential, and have generally only used every second poll for Morgan and Essential to keep the figures concurrent with Newspoll. Alternatively, you could just look at Possum’s chart dump, which includes ACNielsen.
923 Comments
no it doesn’t adam it tells you how many entries not how many people searched for it
yes and ruddock is a real asset. not! Is kroger going to get Kooyong?
Gosh, a political opinion from William.
Oh I see, Centaur. No, I don’t know how you do that.
Another virtually identical poll result. That starts making the MOW look pretty small. So it looks like disunity and constant negative sniping is a bad look after all…
I want to correct my comment on the possible Australian fallout of the US Senate resisting the American Auto industry bailout. It might be worse for GM here than I thought. it seems Pontiac is one of teh brands GM is looking to cut in any rationalisation. That is the brand under which some Holden models are sold in the US. That would hurt the local operations a lot with no export income. Without them Holden might not be viable on their current local model lineup. They are supposed to be working on new local models but all I can say is they better get cracking. If the whole US parent folded Holden here would need to look for a foreign buyer fast.
I find the intro a bit odd. “failure to show the newspoll bounce”??? I would have thought 59.5/40.5 is exactly in line with the 59/41 Newspoll, and the fact the Morgan detected the bounce earlier is a function of the timing of the polls. The “failure to show a bounce” sounds like a Shanahanism to me!!
sorry “not replicated” rather than “failure to show”
The state by state break-up is quite interesting. Its hard not to believe that there has been a spill-over from NSW state politics into the Federal result. As NSW State labor has slipped, so has the federal result.
I can hardly blame the voters in NSW though. They have effectively been in a recession already for the past 12 months, when NSW economic and job growth has been zero to negative. If you took NSW out the national GDP figures would still be reasonable.
Well Soc’s
Aussie & Asian stockmarkets have dropped like pile drivers in the last 35 mins or so on the news that the US Senate have failed to agree a rescue package.
“Maybe” it is better for this to happen in our markets trading hours, but the screens are red as far as you can see.
I saw this elsewhere this morning – ” how come Honda, Toyota and others aren’t included in the US Bail out? After all, they make cars in the US, and employ tens of thousands of American car workers. They’ve also been suffering from a downturn in demand; they’ve also been losing money for their head offices.
If the Big Three (Losers) don’t survive, Toyota, Hyundai and Honda will still be buying parts – that will save at least some of the fictional 3 million jobs that ‘depend on the car industry’.
Heaven knows what will happen to our car manufacturers. Being foreign subsidiaries hasn’t stopped Ford Australia & Holden from sticking out their tentacles for money from the Australian government; Toyota Australia likewise.”
So we see Morgan, Newspoll and Essential research all pretty close now. Does anyone know how usual it is for the results to be this similar? Does it mean anything?
Andrew, bounce suggests a change in trajectory, and this is the same result as last time. Might be an idea to read my whole sentence.
Andrew, if you left out the “Shanahanism” bit, you might have got away with it ….
Federally Labor is still in front of the coalition in NSW and they are killing the opposition in QLD. On those figures losses in NSW would be made up in Qld one would have thought but of course an election isn’t being held now is it?
Dave
Thanks I hadn’t been following the markets but that doesn’t surprise me. However old fashioned and badly run, a lot of businesses still rely on the US auto industry for their market. I find it pretty eggregiousthat they can find 700 billion to rescue a few thousand invest mbankers in wall Street who can screw up or possibly even commmit fraud, while the cant find 15 billion to maintain hundreds of thousands. you may eb right about the 3 million jobs being fictitious, but teh flow on effects would come close. GM now employ 100,000 in the US; 6500 in Australia as of 2007.
My previous post wasn’t suggesting that all 3 (GM, Ford and Chrysler) will all go down though. Ford are in much better shape than GM, and Chrysler are mid-field.
However the point of my post 6 was in some ways even more pessimistic for GM locally. Even if GM in the US are bailed out, if they plan to kill Pontiac in any rationalisation that will hurt GMH. They could be in trouble either way.
William I did read the whole thing. I am saying the “bounce” was already in the previous Morgan, so I dont know why you would focus on that rather than the fact that the absolute numbers are similar, unless you were trying to put a negative spin on it
seems the bailout was scrapped because the republicans wanted to cut wages.
Charming.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/11/murky-future-for-auto-res_n_150148.html
I’ve done a chart comparing Newspoll, Morgan and Essential. Barring a few quirky individual polls, Morgan is generally three points better for Labor than Newspoll. Essential was consistently two points above Newspoll for a while there, but it’s become erratic lately. They were a bit coy when I asked them whether they’d changed their methodology. Their sudden unanimity around 59-41 is indeed very unusual – it shows up as a bounce in Newspoll and Essential which is, as I say, not replicated in Morgan.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2008/12/081212threepolls.jpg
zombie – thats why the repubs want GM Form etc to file chapter 11 – then the workers get right royally screwed – and the auto companies just leave the smoking mess and start over.
charming indeed.
They voted for Obama though Dave lol!
Gary @14
Coalition in NSW has lost ground in primaries as well
Coalition At election 40,1 now 38
ALP At election 44.5 now 41
And when it comes to 2PP ALP is up slightly since election(54.2 now 55)
Which would mean they shouldn’t lose seats and need to rely on QLD
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1201%20State%20&%20Dem%2012-12-08.pdf
Interesting you see humour in the coming pain a estimated 3 million workers.
William Bowe
“The Greens are up three points (on Morgan) on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent, which was also not reflected in Newspoll.”
But Newspoll already had Greens at 10% so wouldn’t expect Nrewspoll to take Greens to 13% It may be more that Morgon previously had Greens at 7.5% which thought was unrealistic too low (now corected to 10.5% with most offset reducing Labors primary 2%)
I live to give Dave
Thanks Ron, I had a false recollection of this week’s Newspoll showing the Greens vote in single figures, so I’ve chopped that bit now.
Essential this year has provided the lowest Coalition primary vote while Morgan face to face has consistently provided the highest ALP primary vote. On the TPP it’s all over the place with the pollsters.
All the polls this year are in the top three charts – they’re messy but give the idea. They probably need some LOESS regression fits run through them.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/chart-dump/
Adam and Centaur – go to google trends (http://www.google.com/trends?q=diogenes). Interesting site if you are interested in search stats.
Tom
The car company bailout in the US has collapsed. Unless Bush steps in ASAP, watch US markets on Friday and by extension, the ASX (on Monday), to tank big time
No more Ford or GM lol how stupid are the executives for running their businesses into the ground.
Looks like this is something even the Messiah Obama cannot fix lol!
Obama aint in yet
Neither is a slightly more friendly senate
Then it is another reason for the left to demonize Bush i guess.
Socrates @ 15 -
Even if GM in the US are bailed out, if they plan to kill Pontiac in any rationalisation that will hurt GMH. They could be in trouble either way.
As I understand it GM wanted the Commodore/Pontiac because it satisfied a need some have for a powerful rear wheel drive car. Presumably, if they wanted to continue catering for that segment GM would continue selling them as Chevys or whatever.
That said, if GM goes belly-up then we can kiss Holden goodbye anyway. I can’t see anyone else wanting to buy the operation given the state of the international financial market unless Rudd is prepared to put big bucks into the mix. Plus, by world standards, Elizabeth is small beer. No doubt they could build a much bigger factory in China for the money and export the cars to both America and here for a fraction of the price.
Glen, for reasons I don’t fully understand (I’ve been trying to search out a net reference as to why today) the auto problems are only surfacing at GM and Chrysler. Now, it may have something to do with the fact that Ford is a majority owned family company, so while they trade on Wall Street, stocks owned by the public are < 50% of total available shares.
As if they need them…
So Juliem do you reckon Ford will survive?
Editorial from the Detroit Free Press (suspect that they had this written ahead of time, it appeared mighty quick)
I wrote
Glen wrote
Thats an interesting template to apply when fib voters complain in future.
Rest assured i will treasure reminding you of such.
Glen, your comment #29 is a new low.
Fulvio if you cant take a joke that’s sad, of course not all of them voted for Obama lol maybe 2 voted Republican…
21 – Vera, you make a very good point. Given that Labor is doing so poorly in NSW you would have thought the coalition federally would be making up ground there, not going backwards so this is not a real bad result for federal Labor in NSW, not as good as it could be but not as bad as one might expect either.
A whole series of “jokes” taking delight in others misery.
Way out of line. Why am i not surprised.
The fibs is the bastion of the selfish. It won’t affect glen so why should it really matter. his family don’t work there. Besides he probably owns a Honda
Possum the figures might be a bit all over the place, but I can handle an “all over the place” 2PP for Labor between 54 and 65 without too much trouble!! And the year-end covergence at 59 is a nice Christmas present indeed!
Thanks William for the charts
Dave you take delight in the Liberals misery daily and that of George W Bush….
Mitsubishi Cenataur…but my next car will be a Honda.
Look i can empathise with these people but perhaps the downfall of those companies will spark new ones that are profitable and gives them employment…ie more fuel efficient cars ect.
William Bowe
“Thanks Ron, I had a false recollection of this week’s Newspoll showing the Greens vote in single figures, so I’ve chopped that bit now.”
Actualy William , Essential hav Greens at 7% so thats what you may hav been tinking of …although feel that low Greens figure will move up
Glen you are pluming new lows your comments taking delight on the coming suffering of an estimated 3 million people.
Thats a disgrace.
they could probably name cars after political parties.
the labor- fuel eficient 4 cylinder/injected ute, hard working reliable, and all terain
The liberal- 8 cylinder inefficient imported rubish. Unreliable can only drive in city, requires over seas parts and can only be serviced by Liberal dealer
The Green- biodegradable 2 cylinder hybrid
The National- a tractor
From a purely political pespective, I’m surprised the Republicans didn’t support the auto bailout. What if the Big Three auto makers do go bankrupt on Bush’s watch? He’s a Republican president. Bush presided over a credit crunch, a market crash, a deep recession, and now there’s the possibility of the collapse of the US auto industry, in the country that invented the automobile. Bush can be painted by the Dems as the Herbert Hoover of the 21st century. Bush’s presidency will poison the Republican brand the same way Hoover and the Great Depression did.
If they were 3million Australian workers i wouldnt be taking delight i can guarantee you that…
Is it possible to keep these threads for Aus politics?? There are other places to discuss US politics if you so desire. Makes the discussion here very disjointed
yes time to put the walls up around australia again. quick i can hear those jobless mexicans coming
If the US car industry collapses that will have a profound effect on Australian politics.
glen wrote
why would anyone take ANY delight of ANY worker – let alone 3 million workers losing their jobs ?
Any news on the coalitions meeting.Is Barnaby the new leader of the opposition? Fiona Nash was easy on the eye. how dare they shelve her
Nash has considerable talent. They won’t be able to bench her for long.
Centaur009!! (footsteps)
Adam is right this is big news for Australian politics for there are several suburbs in Melbourne and Adelaide that could be hit very hard by this but there is a bit of DeJa Vu happening for we saw the House block the first moves to bail-out the banks then the market took a pounding only to have a new plan that was passed.
I think the same will happen here! I’m sure the Republicans will not want to be seen as the wreckers of three million jobs and the deth of American icons like GM
What does it matter to me?? The economy is already ruined in the short term ive already lost thousands with my shares so what’s some more short term pain for me?
I guess Rudd will be putting more money into our Auto Industry….but eventually Rudd is going to run out of money soon enough.
Dave, I don’t think Glen had thought through the interpretation that you and I have given his comment. I’ll be charitable enough to leave it at that.
Centaur…Fiona is a looker but she’s got more talent than Barnaby, she was only elected in 2004 i think. Agree with you on that one, why demote her and not have any consequences for Barnaby or Top End Nigel??
It’s all about Glen. maybe there should be the Glen factor to consider when making desicions.Will it affect Glen? No , then we should be Ok.
Typical self centered conservative sentiment. me myself and I
Scientific proof that Democrats are smarter than Republicans (and by extension, Labor voters have higher IQs than Libs
).
http://www.slate.com/id/2206512?nav=wp
Glen!! Everything that is wrong with the Right of politics can be summed up by you attempting a joke! up to 1-10 American jobs could be impacted for that is how many people are employed in relation to the car Industry.
I’m tipping on open Wall St to drop by 700-1000 points to finish with a drop of 300!!
I’m curious what is the payrate of an American car maker vs that of a Japanese car maker
Why am i castigated when i had nothing to do with the demise of their Auto Industry?
If it means anything to you i think the executives of GM et al should be in jail for gross mismanagment and their assets given to staff in redundencies….
As someone said, not all conservatives are stupid but all stupid people are conservatives.
Possibly jumped th horse over th cart with auto in ‘oz’ All is not lost in Detroit , its Russian roulette , Big car ar uncompetitive & obsolete plant with big short & long wage liabilities and Chapter 11 fixes that (if Govt giv bailout to retool) Also both Partys Agenda’s ar both diferent , but Senate doesn’t vote on party lines so its not over
But may add , these Big car CEO’s lobbed up to congress wanting 25 billion plus 15 biollion handout…what do they turn in , there own private planes…like turning up to a homeless kitchen in a tux , driving a lambergini
Glen!! I was not castigating you!! I was simplly unimpressed with you saying that you were making a joke!! I have been here long enough to know that you can be sensible and we have agreed on a great number of issues and I’m the first to admit to being sarastic & cheecky at times!!
Duly Noted.
Adam, is Stephen Conroy a conservative? If not, your proposition is false!
LOL sick burn Westie!
Also what about Bidgood??
Conroy is not stupid , he has simply handled a worthwile internet censoring proposal with some foolish comments
Glen re Bitgood , yes I agree
Adam at number 66,
The quote was by John Stuart Mill:
“The trouble with the Labor Party is that they don’t really believe in Socialism, but they cannot wholeheartedly approve of private enterprise either.”
Joseph Grimond
Glen, that at least makes them somewhat balanced and centrist, as opposed to the radical conservatives, no pretence at being balanced or moderate, who call themselves “Liberal”.
There are two kinds of fools: one says, “This is old, therefore it is good”; the other says, “This is new, therefore it is better.”
William Ralph Inge
Take Eric Abetz, for example. He was described by Jack The Insider as “arguably the most right-wing politician in the country”.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_losing_battle_for_the_centre/
By what definition is this extremist a “Liberal” – except by party name?
Amigo Ronnie, is this my parrot escaping from the G Island?
Fellow bludgers, I think the reporting on today’s state by state polling in the Oz indicated that NSW was a problem for the ALP and could result in the Rudd Government being a ‘oncer’!
Well it’s partly right, NSW is flat, but QLD, WA and SA are very rewarding for the ALP.
I’ve posted a year end summary here for those interested parties.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=4513
“worthwile internet censoring proposal”
Worthwhile for whom? The Exclusive Brethren? (Who claim not to use the internet anyway.)
Actually, Dumb’s Dumber, Bidgood, would no doubt think it’s worthwhile too!
Fellow bludgers, I think the reporting on today’s state by state polling in the Oz indicated that NSW was a problem for the ALP and could result in the Rudd Government being a ‘oncer’!
Nah, if necessary we’ll chuck NSW out of the Commonwealth and flog it to the Kiwis. Half of New Zealand is already living at Bondi I’m told.
Peter Hartcher is worth a read.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/peter-hartcher/peter-hartcher/2008/12/11/1228585020479.html
Considering that both Eric Abetz and Petro Georgiou wear their glasses low on their noses, this can be ruled out as a measure of conservativeness.
Begging your pardon Andrew but the only time William has ever had a dedicated US thread that I am aware of was for the US elections which are now technically over. Unless something has been posted to the contrary in the last 3 hours, don’t think it is going to happen for you …….
Glen @ 35, I’ve no idea in the long term. In the short term, they are probably better off because they can draw upon family money to help out. However, they are in the same boat as everyone else with the decline in the value of their portfolios so it won’t last indefinitely ………
OK, now I have the FINAL episode of The Howard Years on my iPod.
It is the only episode needed.
What about the Minnesota recount! I’ve been biting my nails for the last month!
Fulvio @ 38, Glen speaks the truth. I know he and I agreeing on anything makes for very strange bedfellows but none the less …. I grew up in Michigan and I know it from living it. My dad spent 30 years in the automotive industry as well so I know it up close and personal.
The only thing that Glen glosses over is that the “executives” are a lot more then the current crop of CEO’s. There are multiple incarnations over the years and because they had to deal with heads of the employees unions across the table and still run their businesses, concessions had to be made in contract talks over the years. There is blame on both sides, management and employees and there is plenty of blame to go around. Kind of like peeling multiple layers off of an onion ……..
JulieM,
Andrew is a known troublemaker. Always happy to instruct people on what to think or say.
Finns has him teed perfectly.
Glen @ 65,
Glen, as noted in a post just a bit ago, I’m WITH you tonight. Weird, eh? The car industry falls apart and we get a greens leaning labor voter siding with a rusted on lib
…… It makes a HUGE difference, I will tell you, having lived it for years and years. I can see exactly where you are coming from. The ONLY regret I have is that it will deeply affect my parents as dad is a GM retiree and they are both 73 ……. I hope that Bush gives them some money and/or GM at least (don’t have a personal stake in the other two companies) can hold out until Obama is sworn in. Geez, am I going to miss being out of touch with news between 15th of January and Australia Day ….. going to live or die on the top of the hour news updates from the ABC as we move cross country …..
Showson,
Minnesota isn’t enough to merit its own thread
…. I’m waiting on that one too but much more interested actually on the brewing cesspool in the Illinois state house 
Mayo,
You got to admire Shanahan. He picks the only stat in the whole poll that is negative to Rudd and Labor and promotes it to the top of the batting order.
How many elections have there been when we are told that the voters differentiate between Federal, State and Council elections? Yet we are now told that NSW Labor is a burden on Federal Labor. Oh, come now.
“The hills are alive with the sounds of bullsh*t”.
juliem
I have seen reports that the asian auto makers with plants in the US, pay (in an overall package sense) “about” the same wages as the US auto companies. The “story” being they did this so that their workplaces didn’t become unionised.
The bid difference from what I have seen is legacy costs – the US auto companies have MANY MANY retirees on their books, ie people who toiled loyally on agreed packages and retirement benefits which have already been so called “re-negotiated” DOWN on several ocassions already.
Other media reports convey a totally different impression, almost to the point that the workers are the major problem and enjoy huge wages – akimbo wall street style ??
An appropriate picture given the news ….. watch Wall Street tank tomorrow
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/53322/thumbs/s-JUNKYARD-large.jpg
Dave @ 93,
That is exactly right …. things might have changed marginally over the years as you note near the end of what I snipped above but failing bankruptcy, there is no other legal way for them to avoid those costs …. that is why I fear what might be around the corner as it personally affects my parents …..
juliem
charming indeed – screw the worker yet again. Really sucks.
We are not seeing much here in australia, but presumably people in the US are screaming for blood. Convictions for the wall street stuff etc.
Media is very quite about what action is being taken against the shysters.
Jesus, watching Question Time has really lowered your guys’ standards.
In what universe is Fiona Nash a “looker”? Not in this one.
The foresight of Hawke and Keating to introduce individual super for all and the existence of universal health care under Medicare. Neither perfect, but at least Australian workers have some surety in the basics.
We rock!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/peter-hartcher/peter-hartcher/2008/12/11/1228585020479.html
Turnbull is really looking like a fool with Kerry.
Red Kerry is ripping Allbull apart right now
Gee Red Kerry’s giving Turnbull a tough time… Malcolm floundering quite a bit on the deficit/recession thing
We are about to see a transformation of quite historic proportions – the US is about to become a social democracy, abandoning 200 years of rugged individualism. Even FDR couldn’t quite achieve this, but Obama will, partly by design and partly because he will have no choice. Universal health cover, de facto nationalisation of the banks and the car industry, expansion of state supervision of the economy, state mandated energy reforms to reduce carbon-dependence – all this will transform the US economy and thus US society and politics. Everything the Republican Party has stood for for the past century and more is being trashed before our eyes. As Ronald Reagan said, though not in this context: It’s morning in America!
A very good friend of mine is pretty well connected at Holden and works at a high level… hears lots of comments from big execs and drafts their reports, letters and so on.
The word is that Holden will go under in less than two weeks if the bailout in the USA does not proceed. The local arm is “joined at the hip” to the parent company and the parent company will rip the guts out of their subsidiary to tip the loot into surviving another few weeks, if that’s what it takes.
Decision day is just before Christmas. Hold onto your hats. We could be in for a Big One.
BB,
Makes you think that Rudd and Co are trying despeately to stay in front of the curve with today’s industry announcements.
Painful times ahead.
Here’s Ron Paul bewailing the death of conservative America.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/12/house_debates_auto_aid_bill.html
I thought it was good!
I like it when Governments spend money on train tracks (but not trains).
Oz wrote ;
Haha I laughed at the original comments and let them go through to the keeper
Red Kerry would never question Rudd like that…Turnbull looked woeful…i guess all he needed to say was that i wouldn’t go into a deficit unless i absolutely had to and not doing so would make the situation worse or i would try not to and try to avoid a recession.
GG, No such thing. It will good for the soul, especially the Y-Gen. It’s about time they learn to be completely on their own, with no direction home, like a rolling stone. Things also look very painful on the G Island.
Lighten up Dave/Oz, Fiona Nash puts Kate Lundy to shame.
BTW dave i wasnt the first to mention comments about her appearance…just so you know i was provoked.
Glen, how does it feel like to be completely on your own, with no direction home, like a rolling stone, among the carrion crows here at PB.
Finns,
Disagree. Many Australians have been protected from the the coming tsunami to date. My feel is there will be a lot of Companies who survive to Xmas and then bid adieu to many in their work force. It may sound cruel. But, how cruel to let people go on annual holidays without a job when they return.
BB describes Holden, an Austalian icon. How many others are there waiting to fall?
Like it has since i found pollbludger…doing my part, putting up an alternative point of view…
Oh come on Glen, Kerry hammers politicians from all sides.
Turnbull simply had no clue what he was talking about.
Kerry asked: So do you support the stimulus package?
Turnbull: I don’t think it matters.
108 said
What utter garbage ! Have a look at last nights transcripts.
Of course he did. He is all piss and wind and the smart mouth lawyer act has severe limitations against anyone even a smiggen brighter than fran kelly.
allbull ….. was given amble chance to criticise the governments policy and approach.
Then he was surprised, wrong footed and was most certainly totally unprepared and unable to answer what HE would do. What HIS policy would be ? He was asked multiple times what HE would do.
He twisted like corpse on the end of a rope and still he did not, could not answer what he would do – even though he spent the initial part of the interview rebuffing what was being done by the government.
If allbull is the best, the brightest the fibs can offer, god help them all.
allbull is a DUD !!!
Scoring points off Glen is a fairly trivial exercise when we look at the scale of the crisis, the double crisis, the world is facing at the moment. This is one of the great turning points of modern history. Responding effectively to climate change and the GFC simultaneously is going to put activist government back in the saddle in all western countries in a way we haven’t seen since World War II. That’s why Rudd, Brown and Obama are riding the political wave of the future while the conservatives (to mix my metaphors) are going down the toilet.
So do you think Brown will win in 2010?
Gee you guys should put spoiler alerts on these posts, for those of us that haven’t got there yet.
GG, I was retrenched when the word “retrench” was not even in the dictionary and carried certain negative stigma. The funny thing was that I did better after each retrenchment.
In the end I retrenched myself, and the funny thing is, again, I am doing better and better. Bring in on.
The Tories are only 4 points up now and Brown is miles ahead on the “who is best to deal with the GFC?” question. You’s have to suppose he’ll call an election in the northern summer (”give me a mandate to work with Obama and Kevin Rudd to save the world”), and win it.
That isn’t necessarily, Polyquats – as someone who sees these interviews two hours later than everyone else, I can say that they never bear the slightest resemblance to the way they’re described.
William,
Please post your reaction to the Dud-Bull interview in due course.
Yes please, William. Thanking you in great anticipation and excitement.
Finns,
You are probably young, educated, handsome and have the gift of the gab.
Unfortunately, the people about to be screwed over in the GFC are middleaged, with limited education, kids and an excessive mortgage to support and with English as a second language.
God help the over fifties and imperfect.
Just when you dispair about our yank friends along comes this :
Former US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other top administration officials are responsible for abuse of detainees in US custody, a bipartisan Senate report says
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/rumsfeld-responsible-for-abuse-report/2008/12/12/1228585104472.html
Almost a duh moment – did they really think they could blame privates or corporals foe ever
116,
Canada is only marking time, it will eventually get on the bandwagon as well
GG,
That is exactly what I was referring to – the Y-Gen.
not the people you have just described.
What about NZ???
They voted in the Tories during the GLC???
Harper will stay alive, Iggy is more likely to deal with the Tories than the NDP/Bloc…
Cameron will smash Brown, anybody who thinks they’ve saved the world isnt concerned with bread and butter issues at home.
Also we’ve got Germany and Italy and France all with Conservatives in power
Mind you the LDP in Japan is probably going down.
I thought the Tory’s inability to understand what Brown has achieved demonstrates how out of touch THEY are.
The Tories have consistently been ahead of Labor…Brown is a lame duck…even the Germans are criticising his economic policies…
Glen
Australia too! Rudd is a fiscal conservative.
What does it mean to be a conservative?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/business/13auto.html?hp
This afternoon Reid was saying they were going to keep negotiating, right?
Key ran on Labour policies anyway.
It’s the same as usual, the Republicans can’t handle that auto workers are heavily unionised.
They’re New Zealanders! Enough said.
If there was one group of people around the world who would be silly enough to throw out a respected incumbent with good policies during a time of global financial instability and replace her with a populist and opportunistic merchant banker it would be New Zealanders.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/shot-tylers-nationalist-myspace-page/2008/12/12/1228585102348.html
Now, would it be too insensitive to say good riddance? Yes, it would, my apology. No, it wouldn’t.
Not economic policies ShowsOn…
Also Harper’s Tories won a strengthened minority and the Left got smashed in Canada’s recent elections…
You had better be worried because if you go too far in centralisation with Global Warming and the GFL….We (Tories) Will Bury You…in good time…
Read an article today that pointed out that the “Big 3″ have donated $100 million to the Republican Party and $30 million to the Democrats.
Guess that investment didn’t play out so well.
Another example of gross mismanagement wouldnt you say Oz?
Sarkozy is behaving like a social democrat – don’t forget the Gaullists have never accepted Anglo-Saxon conservatism. Merkel is dragging her feet and is getting a terrible press as a result. I don’t know how well placed the SDP is to beat her but they must be given a chance. Berlusconi isn’t a conservative, he’s a semi-fascist clown and gangster. If France, Britain, Germany and Spain are agreed, Italy will have to go along. The key is persuading Merkel to get with the new zeitgeist.
Oh let me guess, he proposed tax cuts!
The universal solution to any problem for your side of politics.
Strengthened minority –> Oxymoron
A majority of Canadians voting for the three left parties is “getting smashed”?
I wouldn’t be shocked if the next U.K election gives us a Labor/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government.
And I agree: Turnball was woeful tonight, really inept! I doubt he’ll be leader in 6 months time!
Dunno how that will work out.
Her foreign minister took the rather unprecedented step of openly criticising Brown’s domestic economic policy.
That was certainly true about this one, William.
Glen: You obviously supported Stephen Harper shutting down parliament, so he could avoid the opposition parties overthrowing his government. But of course the conservatives are past masters at subverting democracy.
Any deal with GM has to revolve around their pension gurantees and protection of worker entitlements.
Then like in the 30’s the Fed will say we will save you but you have to start manufacturing different things like rockets to Mars, matter transformers and the like.
Oz the Liberal Party won 77 seats…recieved their lowest vote in Canadian Political History…26.26% down almost a million votes from 2006.
Do you call that result the people of Canada wanting the Left???
The NDP barely improved on last time with 18.18%…and just 37 seats…
The Tories won 143 seats with 37.65%….
I think that both Canada and the United Kingdom are moving in the direction of proportional representation to the probable usual disadvantage of the conservatives in both places.
Proportional representation is a crock and it wouldnt fly…Canadians in BC voted against proportional representation and First Past the Post (the only democratic method of voting) is well entrenched…
Glen, my previous post still stands. You said “the left got smashed”. They received a majority of the vote.
The result in BC was 58% FOR BC-STV. The referendum only failed because of the excessively high 60% pass requirement rate.
They didnt stand as one party if they had they may have won they didnt so they lost.
Harper would have had a majority had it not been for the Bloc.
BC are voting again next year on BC-STV.
Good luck to them.
Proportional Representation for lower houses of Parliament create unstable Government…if you dont believe me look at Holland and Belgium!
Got to agree – looked like a fish on the end of a spear.
Tom.
Glen you may as well as well say “Harper would have had a majority had it not been for the Liberals and NDP”.
http://www.fionanash.com.au I didn’t say model, I said easy on the eye. She has the classic Aussie chick look, big teeth, gums, frekly, rides horses and is probably a libra.
Kate Lundy is on par. Kate Ellis tops them all, but I really liked Mia Handshin who missed out.
The Bloc are over represented because of the first past the post system.
http://www.fairvote.ca/files/news%20release%20-%20october%2015%202008%20-%20election%20results.pdf
Kate Ellis is overated.
Why do we have to through this every single time?
Correlation does not imply causation. You can’t look at the situation in Belgium, pick one variable and then say “It’s because of this!!!!”.
If you care so much about “stable government” to fix Belgium then you may as well chuck in an absolute monarchy.
“Stable government” at the expense of proper democratic representation is a very nanny-ish way of looking at things.
Same with Nicole Cornes =(
Oi! Why was 7:30 Report on tonight???
Was it the last show for the year? Bugger, I missed it… oh well I’ll just have to wait for the net… At first I thought, don’t tell me it’s still Thursday!
And Hajnal Ban.
Maa Handshin now advises Ellis (on youth affairsI think)
Grog, it’ll be on next week but Kerry’s gone on holidays.
Cheers Oz, but why the Friday show? (not that I was hanging out for Stateline…)
The problem in Belgium is that there are two different linguistic groups of roughly the same size who`s representative parties (most to all parties are split along linguistic lines) have trouble cooperating in Parliament. Because they are in quite geographically distinct areas single member electorates would not help. Single member electorates help geographically dense parties (the Nationals and the Bloc) over parties of larger size with a more spread base (the Greens and the NDP).
What about Norway?
What about Denmark?
What about Germany?
What about Austria?
What about Sweden?
All of these countries have trouble forming government because they have a poor voting system…
yeah but Handshin has brains too, Cornes didn’t seem to. Yes hajnal ban was good but she won’t go far with that name. It sounds to middle eastern for the nationals. They need smoths, jones, joyce etc. How did Barnaby the busy buzzy bee go at the meeting today?
There was a 7:30 Report because there is no Stateline over summer.
Glen! At the Canadian election the Liberals and NDP between them got 44.4%, compared with the Tories’ 37.6%. I don’t know what kind of a mandate you think 37.6% of the vote is. The Bloc got 10%, so if they join or support a Liberal-NDP government, that government will represent 54.4% of voters. End of discussion.
ARISTOTLE
Thank you , very informative Agree NSW need watching , although drop in some areas in coalition as well and both partys losses to minor ones is some Labor offset , but there’s a message there for Labor to heed & giv alot of focus on to distinguish
So you’ve gone from “unstable” to “trouble forming government”. Ill-defined and pointless.
If you hadn’t noticed, Canada with their FPP is “unstable”.
Who does it for the girls or our gay brethren? I’ld be curious to know
The problem in Germany is that the SPD won`t work with the Left Party in the West and therefore at federal level.
Austria has trouble because of the far right.
I am not aware of any Government forming trouble in Scandinavia.
I never said it was a mandate i merely said the Liberal Party got its lowest vote ever
e v e r in h i s t o r y!
26% of the vote and 77 seats and 1million less people voting for them.
The Tories are the most preferred and given a tick to continue as a minority government with 143 seats up from 126 otherwise they’d have gone backwards not forwards Adam.
The Bloc denied them a majority.
Adam the Bloc cannot be included…they want to break up the country they dont count as far as i am concerned and shouldnt have any power like what the Liberals and NDP want to give them should they oust Harper. The Lib/NDP Coalition should get its mandate from the people not from the Bloc.
Glen that is all bollocks and you know it. Feeble even by your standards. I thought you supported the Westminster system?
Glen if you want to cut the power of the Bloc then support PR because it would cut them from around 51 seats to around 28 seats and the would not have the balance of power because the Liberals, NDP and Greens would have a majority together.
I do but for gods sake how can any political party form a government with an organisation that wants to break up the country that is complete bollocks…
Yes if they have a majority with the Sepratists then yes there is nothing stopping them. But they should take it to the people…they never said they’d form an alliance with the Bloc.
In the Canadian Election this year a majority of voters voted for a losing candidate.
http://www.fairvote.ca/files/news%20release%20-%20october%2017%202008%20-%20orphan%20voters%20total.pdf
Tom, they all got one vote and it counted once that is democratic.
Stephen Smith I hear.
Your warped definition of democratic does not change the fact that a majority of voters voted for losing candidates.
I say warped because it discounts the ability of those votes to have a chance to elect someone because of where the vote is cast.
And how do fell about your pals the British Tories supporting a *separatist party* (the SNP) in government in the Scottish Parliament?
“And how do fell” = “And how do you feel”
Glen
You ar 1/2 right and 1/2 wrong I feel its outragous th Bloc who want to carve up th Country have balance of power , and your point is valid
But one has to accept in a democracy thats how th votes and Party shares came out of electon , and surely you ar not suggesting disenfranchising Bloc voters You hav to wear it and hope Bloc do not extract too many concessions from Lberals/NDP
Why is it outrageous? If the majority in Quebec want to secede, they have a perfect right to do so.
Glen, did you see this one yet?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/this-sucks-but-im-rooting_b_150442.html
While I didn’t write it, I could have. This guy goes a long way towards explaining why I agree with you on this one tonight …..
night in Canberra
adam
dare they call them (the SNP) the squadrone volante?
Um (strains to remember Scottish history) – I thought the squadrone volante was a PRO-union party?
Just saw Turnbull on The 7.30 Report. He was fine.
Adam about as well as the Labor Party does getting support from the Welsh Nationalists in Wales lol
the SV were supposed to vote in opposition to Union with English,but at the last moment sided with the pro union
(the duke of Hamilton de facto leader of the opposition discovered he was suffering toothache,and was not able to be present to vote.
That was the WA version, William, after it had been redubbed and photoshopped. In the ES version he was crap.
Yea Whilsts th some questons appeared deadly and viewers may hav loved that , perhaps some viewers didn’t watch how Turnbull handled them
Its like those TV Debates , each sides srtongest supporters feel there man once easily
won
1797
Tories in power in england ratified the Act of Security
Come on Glen I had to get a new password just to come in and share with you. On the one hand you are arguing mandate from the people and then you try to argue they don’t really matter (as in your broad definition of democracy and the majority not supporting the Govt in a FPP election). Come on try and keep to your great mandate of the people argument, or tack right across the course to the far side and stick with whatever voting result happens, but please don’t tack backwards and forwards from side to side without thinking you’ll be taking your argument backwards.
Answer the question Glen. *You’re* the one who is arguing that it’s forbidden to collaborate with separatists. I’m pointing out that a party you support is doing just that.
And incidentally the BQ has *two* stated policy objectives. One is an independent Quebec, but the other is the defence of Quebec interests within Canada. If the BQ has decided that a Dion government would be better than a Harper government for Quebec’s interests, they have every right to vote Harper out.
I really hope Handshin gets in next election. She would make a very good minister.
and she is hawt
Ron “I feel its outragous th Bloc who want to carve up th Country”
‘Why is it outrageous? If the majority in Quebec want to secede, they have a perfect right to do so.’
Outrageous of Bloc because they ar sitting in a National Parliament sanctimonously claiming to form a National government , when at every turn they will wish to break th country up
That is quite separate issue to th absolute right of majority Quebecans wanting to secede Th block hav a right to be National parliament but to be ‘part’ of th National govt of National Cnada is hypocritical at best , but not last politicans to do so
Read my last post before the fold, Ron
the minister of sport and her adviser in the parliament gym change rooms… soaping each other up in the showers..
hmmm wrong website for that I guess…
Well, there is that too
Well if Harper is also negotiating , then my criticism applies to him also
Aspect of Bloc policy of defending Quecbec’s interts within Canada may be a byproduct of riority , secession
I do not object to Quebecans majority wanting to secede Also I do NOT object to Bloc having members sitting in National Parliament 9democracy , and Glen should reely accept that and wish he would ) , but I do object to them being ‘part’ of a National Govt of a County they wish to dismember Of course from therepoint of view its a politcal advantage to do so , and it is democracy but doe not make it free from criticisng
Just wonder if in theory , One Nation had balance of power in HoR and had to choose if Howard Govt to continue or Rudd to continue , how one would react however she choosed….
I think we are all a little biased and a little quick to judge that Red Kerry has torn one of the conservatives to smitherines on the 7.30 Report. However, that was certainly the case tonight.
I have said Turnbull is a LIGHTWEIGHT from day one. Looks like I was right again.
Zombie and Dario, if you you don’t mind, these are people I know. If you want to masturbate there are other websites you could visit.
I’d say Cossie was sitting back with a glass of red in one hand and the remote in the other, a smirk from ear to ear
agree totally
Come on Adam… we only said she was hot, and she is!
has anyone seen cossie and turnbull in the same room at the same time?????
Introduction…?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/12/2445471.htm
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2005/09/12/costello_wideweb__430×286.jpg
Bah, anyone could have done that with Photoshop
Kate Ellis was offered $30k to appear nude in one of the mens magazines. The money would have gone to charity. Kate laughed at the offer, but refused.
Agree totally to #209 These people deserve proper respect
.
Centre , if you were diog , I’d be saying …you ar wrong…again
You started off saying “we are all a little biased and a little quick to judge that Red Kerry has torn one of the conservatives to smitherines…” and then prceeded to be ‘a little biased and a little quick to judge anyway Thats like th numerous people who ar about to insult me saying ‘I don’t wish to arrogant but , and then proceed to be arrogant , and can never understand appology of th insult before delivering that very insult
There is no god…
Actually that photo looks like they’ve just eaten a s**t sandwich
they better get used to a daily serving
Ron, no.
I am not being biased about tonights interview. As for being arrogant, I’m only having a little fun.
I’m with Ron and Adam (OMG – is the sky falling?). I’m a little tired of the objectifying of female politicians. Grow up, boys.
And as much as it pains me to admit it, while Allbull is a pathetic light weight, he survived the Kerry the Red reasonably well today. Nothing there to worry the rusted-ons.
Just checking some of the earlier comments, even Glen reckons Turnbull got smashed by Kerry.
Centre so Glen thinks Turnbull got smashed and William says he was fine…Who to believe??!!!
The sky is falling. Glen is right, William is wrong.
Centre
steady on there old son,
william is never wrong-only sometimes misguided
Well I;ve seen it and Im with Glen. My fave bit about deficits:
KERRY O’BRIEN: When you talk about now saying that one should – government should only go into deficit as a last resort, what in your terms is a last resort? Is this not last resort? And they’re not in deficit yet. They’re saying at this stage they’re not going to go into deficit, but they’d be prepared to if they had to. So, what’s last resort for you? Will you wait until we’re in recession, or … ?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Kerry, well, Kerry, Kerry, we’ll see. I mean, the reality is …
KERRY O’BRIEN: You don’t know?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Kerry, you don’t know either.
KERRY O’BRIEN: No, no, but what I’m saying to you is: you’ve said “as a last resort”. Surely you must have some definition in your mind of what constitutes a last resort before a government would act to go into deficit in order to protect an economy.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: OK, this is the definition – you mightn’t like this – but, what the Government has got to do is to get the best economic outcome for the money it spends. And so what it’s got …
KERRY O’BRIEN: Oh, well, you’re just going to repeat what you said before, because that isn’t a definition of last resort.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: No, but, you see, the fact is the Government’s got to work out what outcome it needs in terms of stimulating the economy or supporting employment or whatever it is, you know, or providing social equity to people on lower incomes – whatever its goal is. It’s then got to seek to achieve that outcome by using taxpayers’ money most effectively. In other words, it’s got to get the biggest bang for the fewest number of dollars, the fewest bucks. And that is – and the concern that I have and that I think a lot of Australians have is that Mr Rudd will not be as hard-nosed about spending taxpayers’ money as he ought to be and that will in effect use the current financial crisis as a leave pass to relax his discipline. And that’s why …
KERRY O’BRIEN: Now, Mr Turnbull, with respect, you’re simply repeating what you’ve said earlier twice now. The question really was …
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well it was right the first time.
KERRY O’BRIEN: No, no. The question really was: how do you define what a last resort is, at which point, you, if you led a Government, would be prepared to go into deficit? You’ve said that’s when Governments should go into deficit, but you won’t tell me what you regard as last resort. Is it before an economy goes into recession to try and stop that happening, to try and prop up jobs? Is it after it’s gone into recession? Is it before it heads into a deep and prolonged recession?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, the short answer is that a Government should not go into deficit other than as a last resort.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Yes.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: And a last resort means that you shouldn’t go into deficit unless, without going into deficit, you would cause – you would fail to prevent serious economic harm in the economy.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Like a recession?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, exactly. That’s right.
Andrew yes. I thought the worst part of the interview was when Turnbull said to some business gathering that Rudd should be managing the economy like a business and running a tight ship.
So Kerry asked something like, would you cut jobs and cut expenditure like business at a time where we face possible recession? Turnbull did not know what to say. He is clearly not upto the job. He is all reputation. I say this at a time where Rudd is not at all threatened by anybody in the Liberal Party.
There was some speculation in the Herald today that Hockey might be moving to State parliament to take over from Barry.
The last sentence of #228 is certainly true. I’ll reserve judgement on the previous sentence.
It has rained in Canberra all day and all evening without a break. Maybe the drought has broken. Penny Wong could be delivering her big statement on Monday in two feet of water.
Ok, I’ve had several glasses of red, but reading that transcript back all I could do was laugh myself silly… surely Malcolm could have kept on about the line he has been trying to get out there so far, i.e. JOBS. When Kezza says ‘whats your definition of last resort’ you say when JOBS are lost! You hammer JOBS. Sheesh, even I could have done a better job of it half cut! (no pun intended). Cossie, where are you???
Also what about the fact that tax cuts are RECURRING, whereas the stimulus package is directly targeted at boosting the economy?
Turnbull had no answer. He was totally speechless. He is out of his depth. Politics is truly not his field of expertise and he should be doing something else.
Sydney too. 5cm added to the catchment in 24 hours. Precipitation will always be higher under a Labor government.
check out the latest images
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml
Yeah, you almost felt sorry for him
Genius.
Adam way back at #102 said:
Cant disagree.
Now picture this – GM files for Chapter 11 but soon realises that it’s effectively insolvent because of it’s enormous future liabilities regarding pension payments and healthcare provision for its past workforce. Bailout packages are designed and taken to the House but conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats join in an unholy alliance to prevent tax payers money from being pissed up the wall in an exercise of industrial palliative care.
China steps into the fray and offers to buy GM with promises to not only maintain it’s existing workforce (but not hire new workers, letting attrition take hold over time to reduce labour costs in the US), but also offers the prosepct of GM cars manufactured in the US getting a free pass into the Chinese domestic market tariff (and other state imposed burdens) free. However, they will only buy out GM if the liabilities regarding pensions (which arent particularly shit hot to begin with) and healthcare provision for the previous workforce (which are even less shit hot) are taken over by the government.
As a result of the Chinese offer, a number of other large US companies join the fray asking for a plan to offload health and pension liabilities onto the State in return for a guarentee of a large continuing domestic presence in the US economy.
Obama conveniently bites the bullet, not only instituting a solid universal healthcare plan but also piledriving that third rail of American politics – Social Security. Business gets behind both policies for the first time in history (because they no longer have the balance sheet luxury of letting their ideology overrule their corporate self interest), the liberal media goes utterly orgasmic, most Republicans dare not stand in the way and Adams vision of social democracy comes to fruition in the US – not because of some outbreak of political self awareness and deeper understanding of social cost benefit, but simply because of necessity.
Or am I dreaming here?
I can’t say I can believe it will go down exactly as you suggest, but I think a watershed is certainly on the horizon
Good argument for a bill of rights:
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/12/12/unhelpful/
If I was Tanner watching that interview I’d be displeasd with Kerry Th most if anyting swingers would get from that interview is Deficits ar bad , Turnbull is against Deficits and Deficits ar only ar last resort , and only if to prevent a recession Thats partly th Libs argument
Whereas Labor (rightly) wants to strike well before that , and Taner has said this ‘talk’ by MSN is unhelpful to consumer confidense …and it is not , confidense is in trouble
Possum and Adam
You both may be right but there is a very large underclass in the USA, and a very leaky boarder. The system only works because the underclass gets jack sit. No health care, no unemployment and no pension. It’s going to be one monumental change.
237 Possum
…apart from the fact that you’ve made it seem simple.
China is the wildcard, but even without them it could come to pass.
Interesting times.
I dozed through geography a long time ago, but I think a watershed is by definition is on the horizon.
Poss
Two considerations
1. Is GM essential to the military/industry alliance-pivot point and all that
2.What is GM’s worth to china? ie what does china stand to gain
Good point.
It’s obviously unprofitable.
If GM dies there’ll be quite a gap to fill. China already has car companies working to plug that.
What nation is currently the biggest in the world without a serious car industry?
Chapter 11 I think allows tthose workers liabilitys to be renotiated as well as all those Dealer contracts , but it won’t giv GM etc from Senate th 25 billion retooling bailout or th 15 billion cash flow bailout…but Chinese may
Tom
China has the largest
Britain aint got diddly squat
smartass
Quality is obviously an issue
I thought they still made cars in Britain.
I think its reached the stage of re-assembly as opposed from the ground up
could be wrong though and am happy to be corrected
who is the biggest nation without an auto Industry?
Fredn went:
The working poor issue is probably the trickiest bit in a transition from the current US system to something more social democratic and I dont envy economic policy makers trying to come to terms with that. On the leaky border issue, I wouldnt be surprised in the least if the US got serious about their porous southern border.
Gus went:
GM doesnt seem to do a great deal these days on the military front. They dont do serious hardware, they certainly dont do high tech anything much at all. Some Chinese company approached GM a few weeks ago from all accounts, so they’re interested. The design capability that could then be deployed internationally from GM assets, the brand name for US and western markets (not to mention the Chinese middle class) and the sheer technology and productivity transfer that would be pushed into Chinese domestic plants from a purchase of GM would make it appetizing for Chinese companies.
Add to that the GM retail outlets that a Chinese company could then use for market penetration in the US and it makes a lot of sense.
India have one?
Agree. A US brand is essential for them to make inroads.
An enormous one – the Tata Group
Oh yes they do
http://media.gm.com/servlet/GatewayServlet?target=http://image.emerald.gm.com/gmnews/viewmonthlyreleasedetail.do?domain=74&docid=50945
Also, Popular Science magazine has given GM, Carnegie Mellon University and its Tartan Racing Team a “100 Best Innovations of the Year” award for the self-driving robotic Chevrolet Tahoe that won the DARPA Urban Challenge.
“The U.S. auto industry is a major investor in R&D and a vital part of our country’s science and technology base,
see Point 1 of my earlier post
I agree that all these events may lead to the US finally having to confront the issue of retirement benefits and healthcare. Nobody will take over GM with that bill hanging over their heads. But it remains doubtful if anyone will take them over without it either. Their promised Volt electric car is still two years away (their promised timing) so who will carry their huge losses on current model lineup for that time? Honda and Toyota are both promising to have expanded hybrid lineups including so called “plug in” hybrids by 2010.
There are car plants in the UK, they just aren’t owned by UK companies – Vauxhall (GM), Ford, Honda as well.
Building hybrids doesnt quite get you into the protected military company species club anymore Gus. Who doesnt R&D and build hybrid test beds these days?
Yes, and they own Jaguar.
How’s that for irony.
Sorry Poss
but some how I think that GM is intrinsic to who the US is.
DETROIT – From the first electric starter to the crash test dummies that have helped develop life-saving safety features, General Motors’ research and development accomplishments are well known. Now, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers has named GM first among automotive companies in its IEEE Spectrum’s Patent Scorecard.
(from article previously quoted)
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/patentsurvey2008
“Or am I dreaming here?”
In first para of scenario , Senate knocks back bailout because of GM’s workers long term workers etc libilities
Then in last para , because Chinese hav made an offer , this same Senate is going to effectively approve taking over those GM’s workers long term workers etc libilities (guess only 42 billion)
plus this same Senate is to provide th required 25 billion retooling bailout and th 15 billion cash flow bailout monies REckon they’d be better off dooing this 25 + 15 step with conditions to change managment , car capacity etc
are they simply reassembly plants/dumb factories or true ground up enterprises
Gusface
I don’t wish to “write off” GM because they still have a lot of capability, but I think the IEEE scoreboard is a reflection of history more than current reality. I don’t think GM would be regarded as any sort of technical or innovation leader in the auot industry now. They put way too much money into developing ranges of SUVs in recent years, which are really pretty low-tech machines. Would anyone buy a GM car here or in the US because they thought they were better engineered than a Toyota, Honda or Audi? They do underpin the US (mechanical) engineering industry, but that isn’t where the US has been strong for a long time.
who makes the Hummer?
Gus 263 – All of those are substantial enterprises – developing the models and building them. Strictly speaking though, hardly any plants of any companies build entire vehicles these days. So an engine plant in Opel (Germany) may supply carrs built in Vauxhall (UK).
GM I think
I think Hummers are built by a GM subsidiary which they are now trying to sell off.
Soc
India
China
japan
Korea
Russia
germany
USA
sorry
forgot
france
Italy
UMMM
Isnt the Hummer part of the US military hardware anyway?
Ummmm
Soc that was from 2008,so munless you are a time traveller, thats pretty current to me
BTW
the miltary/aero index top score was 773
GMs score was 883
need I say more
Yep, and it’s an expensive pig of a thing that the Marines and the army would probably quite happily phase out at the first opportunity. You don’t buy a Hummer, you buy an excuse to keep a mechanic on retainer.
Ron, If I could understand a word you wrote I’d gladly reply.
Gus
I presume your point in 269 is that all those countries have car industries? In a way though, that illustrates the other point – making cars alone doesn’t make you a “high-tech” manufacturing economy any more. Honda make cars in Brazil and Thailand and BMW make 3 series models in South Africa. Here is another list:
Luxembourg
Norway
Iceland (till recently)
Switzerland
It is a list based on highest per-capita income. None of them make cars.
The real issue here and in the US over the auto industry is jobs – its how a lot of peopel survive. But it doesn’t make many countries rich, unless you are good enough to make cars to German or Japanese standards. The only people who do that are the Germans and Japanese!
now now poss
just pointing out on your 2 criteria how flawed your original proposal is
Enemy Marsupial
in my #262 reply….ar you dreamong , I think so
Gus
I shoudl point out that I am in favour of bailing out GM in the US (not here if the US folds). However it is in serious trouble and not that competitive. Nobody should be niaive enough to think that a long term solution will not involve profound restructuring adn more cash to develop new technology. Toyota and Honda have been working on hybrids for almost ten years. GM will take time to bridge that gap if they survive.
Soc
a Home grown “ground up” auto industry gives you the base to make military hardware
as regrads “hi tech” I defer to the IEEE
do you have a counter source to them perchance ?
Actualy I tink th Senate will , after ‘a negotiated deal’ , capitulate ….and so they should (if they forse those incompetent CEO’s etc mangament out , and change cpacitys , dealer network blah blah all as conditions of tax payers 15 + 25 bill twin reasons bailouts
The Down is only down 190, that’s now considered perfectly normal!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI
Gus – can you remember the Hummer episode with the QLD correctional services mob? They bought these Hummers to patrol the perimeters of the gaols but couldnt afford the maintenance – so the whole lot ended up stashed in a dodgy warehouse where the only activity they undertook was generating rust.
GM are a good company burdened by bad history, that has some of the worlds best design teams within their structure (including the Australian team that essentially designed the Zeta platform) – but they arent particularly special when it comes technology development.
All the patents in the world dont mean much if you cant bring that technology to market in a profitable way.
Why not just nationalise GM. Have some guts, Congress.
Buy it then build hybrids and everyone’s happy.
The issue of whether or not to bail out companies always comes down to two things for me.
One one hand you have the idiot executives who make poor decisions for a number of years and create unsustainable and untenable companies. They deserve everything they get when the company collapses. On the other hand you have the thousands of workers who haven’t done anything wrong and don’t deserve to lose their jobs.
That’s why I think a bail out should be in the form of the government taking a significant stake in the operations of the business allowing them to do things the way they want too. They can sell their share later if they want but simply throwing money at something that’s just been shown to fail is ridiculous.
Possum, they’ve made a lot of bad decisions relatively recently as well.
Holden had a working Australian designed and built hybrid ready to roll in 2000 but decided it wasn’t going to be profitable, gave it the flick and continued to build 4L sedans, station-wagons, utes and 4WD’s.
Gus
I just checked that IEEE scoreboard and it ranks companies on number of US patents! So no wonder US auto companies come out on top in those rankings. If it included Japanese or European patents I dare say that you might get a different winner. Toyota is the largest car manufacturer in the world and they have more employees and engineers than GM. I don’t really know what such rankings are worth anyway. The bottom line is Toyota are killing GM in the market. If it weren’t for government fleet buys propping up large sedan sales both here and in the US for years, the trend would be even more marked.
Oz
It may not be a bad option in the end. Congress would have to come up with at least $40 billion to buy GM just to cover the retirement obligations, plus whatever it costs to develop new models.
You were right about the GMH hybrid commodore too – I recall Democrats Lyn allison was shwn it and offered to buy one as her work car but was told she couldn’t and then annoyedly got a Prius.
Oz – that’s nothin’!!
Holden could have had the LS7 in their SS Commodores and HSV’s for years!
As they say, if you can’t think of a reason why you need 500hp – you just aren’t giving the problem your full attention
sacre bleu
I will write straight away and suggest Bangladesh next time
Ummmm
Soc selective quoting does you a disservice
what does IEEE stand for btw
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24793135-31037,00.html
Except what I said would have actually aided the company to survive not help it rush to its death =P.
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
An electricians club. Since we all know electrical engineers aren’t real engineers.
And Toyota dont get generous tax breaks and subsidies from the japanese government
Realworld stuff please people
“Why not just nationalise GM. Have some guts, Congress.”
No , govt is not good running such business’s Agree about th guts bit but , just put in th 40 billion with list of conditions (sacking top boys as starters) , and Board reps representing th 40 billion tax payers money
Just watch them show no guts but capitulate but not with clever netotiating for th 40 billion Why does IEEEE come into this
Toyota sells more cars in Australia now than both Ford and Holden combined.
Whereas the private sector is…? Are we talking GM being bankrupt or something else?
I used to be a member, a long, long time ago
I’ll send that one to NASA
But think of the Bogans Oz!
That was probably plastered all over the walls at Holden HQ for motivation.
Gus IEEE was your link – I read what it stood for in 261 myself. I am an engineer by profession myself so thats not exactly news.
I don’t see what is “selective quoting” in pointing out the basis of your own argument in 261.
I don’t understand why you seem so determined to prove that GM are technical leaders? I don’t agree with it, but why does it matter to you so much? I’m not saying they are hopeless but I think they clearly went in the wrong technical direction for some years and that has hurt them. However I think the loss of employment alone is enough justification to help (the workers).
possum had basically said GM was not in the hi tech club
I vehemently disagreed and quoted the IEEE 2008 list of patents and adjusted scorecard
GM shat on the rest of the world in adjusted terms
GM 883
Lockheed 773
The EU package contains support for motor industries, funnily enough. No detail though.
Adjusted for what?
Didn’t someone point out it was American patents? I wonder who wins in Japanese patents?
“Whereas the private sector is…? Are we talking GM being bankrupt or something else?”
As gusface said ‘Realworld stuff please people’ Private sector ar best at running competivie private enterprise business’s of this size , but poor mannagement sends any private sector business down , and it has with US Auto (both in product aged plant marketng etc) , plus foolish past Govt pork barrelling
If you tink US Govt could Nationalise and run GM successfuly , then hav a look at history
Obviously you’ve never done business with Japan Inc
Gus
The IEEE is just one measure. Lots of industries develop such measures as a means of self promtion. Here is a German link that proudly shoes that in 2005 they issued more automotive patents than Japan or the USA. That doesn’t mean they are the best either. The point is just to show that its not as simple as finding some index and saying “voila – the argument is won”.
http://www.cologne-bonn-business.de/index.php?id=36&L=1
The trouble with fishing on the internet for data on questions like this is that it tends to favour the english language countries. So companies like GM score better. But that doesn’t mean they are the leaders.
Irrespective of patents as thats not decisive , ar you on board ..agree to bailout with conditions incl change mangement , Board Reps etc , or against it
Ron
I think the US should bailout GM, on strict conditions. The overal loss of jobs would be huge if they go down, though not 3 million. But there needs to eb a time limit: if not profitable in say 3 years then they should close.
{The trouble with fishing on the internet for data on questions like this is that it tends to favour the english language countries.}
Soc
all my Links are from the orgs themselves
So is the IEEE the Peak body for Hi Tech or not?
The EU has agreed to 20% emissions cut by 2020. Dunno what that means for Poznan.
Ron, anyone could run it more successfully than the status quo.
Well Socrates , you and I ar saying same thing I do not understand reticence in Senate , or indeed here by some….ramifications otherwise ar massive for US , and equally bad s flow on here in ‘oz’
But what about AvtoVAZ! That Russian private-state joint venture even came in a Peter Brock version in Oz with the Lada Niva
(tongue firmly in cheek there even though that’s all true enough)
Maybe that’s GM’s problem – AvtoVAZ went into patnership with GM over the Lada to produce the Chevy Niva
http://www.gm-avtovaz.ru/new_en/inside.php?page=contents/cars/featuresN
Aardvark of a car by any yardtick.
Gus – there is no such thing as a “peak body for high-tech”. IEEE is one of several bodies that represent people who work in those industries.
You still haven’t answered my other questions – why are you so desperate to prove GM are technical leaders? I don’t think thats true. But why does it matter to you so much?
For the record I live in Adelaiddie so have nothign to gain by seeing GMH go down. I don’twant it to happen. But I see no point in kidding myself about the reality they face.
Night Ron.
OZ , thats true….however some including Govt run only would still end up running it at a loss As Socrates and I agrre , one would only hand over th money in exchange for strict conditions including firing curent (failed as you rightly say) management
Enemy Marsupial , ar you disagreeng my view that th US government itself would be unsuccessful trying to running GM etc successfully , now that indeed would be marsupial dreaming
Nite Socrates
No reason soc,other than the fact that GM aint the dinosaur many are painting it as.
Also re the IEEE I know of no similair body,just wondering if there was a comparable worldwide organisation of leading electricians and eletrical engineers ,affiliated to NASA among other august bodies, that existed.
So, what ought to be done for the managers/owners of an industry that promoted the civilian use of the SUV gas guzzlers, including Hummers, when anthropogenic climate change was already having measurable impacts?
Total lack of perspective. Total lack of any sense of global responsibility. Total greed.
Now that they are quite justifiably going down the tubes of history, they do what these ratbags normally do – point at workers jobs and start screaming about the need to protect the livelihood of workers. Add ‘total hypocrites’ to the litany.
btw
poss started this
I’m simply saying GM wont be sold to China and defending my rationale.
It used to be called debating
Blame me Gus!
Congratulations to Katherine Murphy for a mature, sensible, contribution to what ought long ago to have been a considerable debate about our war in Afghanistan. I have been waiting for some time for this to happen and am glad the MSM is catching up with reality in Afghanistan. The link is:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-forgotten-war-20081212-6xiz.html?page=3
If, as looks increasingly likely, the exit strategy cannot mean a military ‘victory’ then it must mean a political settlement.
Why should Australian soldiers keep dying in a war that can neither be won nor lost militarily? If there cannot be a military solution, what is an appropriate diplomatic solution? When will the Rudd Government take steps to help initiate the diplomatic dialogue that this will necessarily involve? If the Rudd Government is waiting for something to change before Australia does something different from what Australia is doing now, what exactly is Australia waiting for?
Waiting for waiting’s sake just adds senselessly to the death toll.
Further to Tracey Murphy’s article: In any overseas military war Australians are simultaneously fighting against something and for something. The Howard Government, followed by the Rudd Government, have found it difficult to talk publicly about what is we are fighting for.
I am providing a link for those interesed in a description of what we are fighting for in Afghanistan. I will not say that is an accurate description. I will say it is the sort of description that should make the Australian Government profoundly concerned to check exactly what it is we are fighting for.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2008/aug/16/drugstrade.afghanistan
For whomever was following the MN recount besides myself
Seems that the WH will use some of the money approved in October after all, the only question is how soon ….. (source TheHill.com which is the website for the House and the Senate)
Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.), the lead Republican negotiator on a last-minute effort to bail out U.S. automakers, said a deal might have been possible Friday had the White House not intervened.
Corker said that Ron Gettelfinger, the president of the United Auto Workers (UAW), has halted discussions after receiving indication from White House officials that they will use funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to save U.S. automakers.
]
[
Corker said he had put a call in to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and would urge Paulson to attach to the relief at least two of the conditions Democrats and Republicans had agreed to Thursday.
Corker declined to say that Republicans had missed an opportunity by not yielding on autoworkers' wages, the issue that scuttled the bailout package. He said many Democrats also wanted to see the industry required to reduce its debt, such as through equity swaps with bondholders and/or equity contributions to Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Associations.
White House officials sought to reassure the financial markets shortly before they were scheduled to open Friday.
“[G]iven the current weakened state of the U.S. economy, we will consider other options if necessary — including use of the TARP program — to prevent a collapse of troubled automakers,” said White House spokeswoman Dana Perino in a statement issued minutes before markets opened.
Corker said that after Gettelfinger received indication that federal aid was coming, he did not see a need to continue negotiations.
]
You have to wonder what the US automakers are doing with all those patents because they don’t appear to be showing up in their product
The biggest selling vehicles in auto history, by a huge margin, aren’t the VW Beetle or Toyota Corolla, or the Mini, but the Ford F-series utes and the GM equivalent. Thumping big low-tech V8-V10 iron engines shoehorned into poorly welded, top heavy bodies sitting on leaf spring suspensions little advanced on that of the covered wagons that crossed the prairies, and stopped, eventually, by tiny drum brakes. Suicide on wheels. If they don’t kill you directly, the sheer volume of exhaust emissions will, along with the rest of the planet.
Forget pension and medical plans or the “high” wages paid to their employees, the reason GM, Ford and Chrysler are facing extinction is that they build crap.
And yes, I’m biased. The closest I’ve ever come to dying was behind the wheel of the 1957 Chevy I briefly owned as a teenager. Wish I still had it though, they’re worth big bickies these days
Agrees with Mayo.
Let the dinosaurs die, so that the mammals can inherit the earth.
“Forget pension and medical plans or the “high” wages paid to their employees, the reason GM, Ford and Chrysler are facing extinction is that they build crap.”
It’s a bit of both, I wold have thought.
But sure, it’s time for them all to go.
I’ve got Cossie to lead the Libs to the next election. A “Liberal insider” said this:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24789900-5006301,00.html
Diogenes, I was thinking of calling Peter Costello and asking him to stay myself. I love destabilization in the Liberal Party.
From the Saturday print edition of the Canberra Times, we’ve another pollie (also a Lib) who has been caught out plagarizing ….. Apologies to all but I can NOT find a URL for this so will briefly summarize. The story isn’t anywhere on their internet site. (Maybe if Frank reads this post in WA he can comment if there are stories appearing locally out there about this).
Mal Washer took his wife along on a $33,000 taxpayer funded overseas study trip for 4 weeks this year in March and April. According to part of the 2 page article, “Text amounting to some nine pages of Dr. Washer’s 30 page report to Special Minister of State John Faulkner appears to have been cut and pasted without alteration or attribution from tourist information and other websites.”
Neither am I convinced that Newspoll does not reflect what has happened in the preceding parliamentary week. While the average person does not watch or listen to parliament directly, the feel for the major events is quickly transferred to the wider community.
Another take on the auto bailout
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-l-borosage/herbert-hoover-time_b_150537.html
Just one minor point about patents, it’s not the number of patents that may be granted by a particular country, but the inventiveness of those patents. Obviously GMH and Ford had been stuck in the past for too long. Yep, let them fold I say.
Will Cossie leads the Liberals? I’ll be rubbing in to a few of the PB’ers if he does!
Depends what your definition of “lead” is Centre.
With reference to Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group, why does the overall change in voting intention, as polled over time, not correlate more closely with stated the male and female breakdowns?
For example, the figures for the Greens show that both male and female support has gone up by 4% since the election, yet the overall increase is only 2.2%. There are similar apparent anomalies with the other parties results.
Poss
Final comment re the auto industry
Does the USA divest itself of a key cog in the military/industrial complex.
Does it also allow the intellectual capital to be offloaded,some of which is definitely “hi-tech”
That should read “If Cossie leads the Liberals?”
“lead” means to certain defeat at the next election
Fargo, it’s probably just a rounding anomaly seeing it is an aggregate of four quarterly polls. Small changes in smaller numbers show a bigger percentage change than small changes in bigger figures.
Think of it this way, a one cent change in a five cent share has a huge percentage change compared to a one cent change in a share worth $100.
Looks like there is more to the story in the Victorian police shooting of the 15 year old. It has all the hallmarks of a “suicide by cop” where the “victim” forces the police to shoot him in an act of suicide. He didn’t have a mental health problem but he was mixed up in a neo-fascist anti-immigration group.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24792760-601,00.html
Huh?
“mixed up” as in “involved with”
Here’s a great interview with NNT describing his book “Black Swans” which predicted the GFC. It’s a fantastic book but this 20 minute interview gives you the gist of it. Basically, financial analysts are thick. There’s a little more to it but that sums it up.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9713
Hugh Jackman is hosting the Oscars.
Diog, you are right this time about “there is more to the story in the Victorian police shooting of the 15 year old”.
I posted at #136 “Now, would it be too insensitive to say good riddance? Yes, it would, my apology. No, it wouldn’t”. The Age is reporting that:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/two-knives-three-alarmed-police-officers-and-a-scared-little-boy-lies-dead-in-seconds-20081212-6xnm.html?page=-1
There is nothing “normal” when a case like this happened. There are always many sides and shades to the story.
The only police who should carry guns in normal circumstances are Special Operations Group type units and gun crime units. In Victoria this means taking on the Police Association on an issue where they would be very stubborn.
I love this phrase “gone to money heaven”.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Madoff-alleged-50-billion-rb-13819411.html
The belief by rusted-on Liberals that Costello can take the party to victory is as deluded as thinking Rudd is a one-term government.
Costello might have the power to bring the rusted-on Liberals back in to the fold, which at a preferred PM of 66-19, some rusted-on Liberals currently support Rudd, but he definately will not be able to attract the swing voters who have flocked to Labor in droves.
bob
They won’t win with Cossie but they will be thrashed by less (IMHO).
Those kneegerkers calling for Muslims to be nuked following the Mumbai attack might find this revealing:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175013/arundhati_roy_the_monster_in_the_mirror
There is no shortage of victims, of varying degrees of innocents or guilt, in the unholy religious and political mess that is the Subcontinent
Those kneegerkers calling for Muslims to be nuked following the Mumbai attack might find this revealing:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175013/arundhati_roy_the_monster_in_the_mirror
There is no shortage of victims, of varying degrees of innocents or guilt, in the unholy religious and political mess that is the Subcontinent
Oops!
I actually had a little on Costello to take over the leadership for the next election when Brenda was leader. The main reason being that if Cossie was serious about leaving politics he would have given a firm comittment to do so and when. I thought that he would prefer to take the leadership from a position of strength rather than a position of weakness straight after the election.
I really don’t know what Cossie is thinking. Maybe he thinks leading the party after Labor’s second term (therefore leading the party after the 2010 election) would give him his best chance of becoming PM. Either way, he is most certainly too weak to ever be Australia’s PM.
The best part of all this is that the Liberals, before they ever win government again, are going to regret so much that Howard did not quit on his 10th anniversary that they may feel anger towards him.
Just watched the Turnbull interview from last night (which I missed). Oh my God!
The transcript is beautiful. What a pity there’s no QT this week!
and the first up response by Kerry shows how Turnbull is now automatically pegged:
Coleman is feeling the heat
….
Oh geez, the interview is just the gift that keeps on giving:
Hang on?? So you supported and voted for a policy that you don’t think will work????
Grog @ 350,
Doesn’t matter what the topic, Rudd doesn’t need QT
Rainmaker again!
If it works he can’t lose because he supported it. If it doesn’t work (and he hasn’t defined what that means) then he gets to say “Well we wanted tax cuts all along”.
Howard did it better than Mal T.
Everything Howard said could be taken however it suited the situation.
Grog, no, this is even better:
MALCOLM TURNBULL: So far, we haven’t seen Mr Rudd take any unpopular decisions. And he’s made a number of decisions …
KERRY O’BRIEN: But can you think of one unpopular decision he should have taken that he hasn’t?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, he’s certainly – well, I’ll give you the very good example: he certainly shouldn’t have gone for an unlimited deposit guarantee. I mean that, in itself, has created enormous …
KERRY O’BRIEN: No, I’m talking on the spending side. Your saying every dollar spent should be very carefully spent. So, is there a tough decision involving spending that he should’ve taken that he hasn’t?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, we’ll – Kerry, we’ll see. We’ll see how this stimulus works out.
KERRY O’BRIEN: So you don’t know of one now? You can’t nominate one.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Kerry, I’m not going – I’m not nominating one.
I really don’t know which interview WB watched, but that’s a shocker from Turnbull.
When you find yourself in a hole – stop digging!!
He really has no idea about policy and not surprisingly then has no idea about how to implement it.
To put it another way – he hasn’t worked out that politics is a stepping stone to governance.
He doesn’t even have the makings of a minister; opposition leader is way past his limits.
While there’s a fair bit of bagging of the US going on around here lately, Turnbull wouldn’t last 5 minutes against a bunch of American commentators, and sure they’ve got a bigger pool to draw from, but leadership is leadership.
WA must have seen a different version of 7.30 Report. I disagree with William too.
Our neighbour who still thinks Howard is terrific has just told us that he thought Turnbull was ‘b…. terrible on telly last night and wants Howard back’. No need for us to say anything really but our grins must have been obvious.
Unless Malcolm is allowed to rabbit on alone (as on rw radio) he seems to lose track when confronted and ends up sounding a bit silly.
Ruddie wasn’t brilliant the night before. He he looked a bit tired but he certainly didn’t look foolish.
The Liberals are revolting according to today’s paper.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24792666-5006786,00.html
You can read Tuckey’s letter here:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/coalition_partyroom_should_introduce_secret_ballots/
A point of interest with the whole Nationalise the automotive industry in the United States. In Germany, the State of Lower Saxony owns 20.2 percent of Volkswagen still. Quite interesting history they have.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/sep2008/volk-s20.shtml
steve @ 359:
“The Liberals are revolting according to today’s paper.”
Saying The Liberals refers to them as a group. I’d hardly say the party MPs are revolting, just a few of them, and mainly towards Barnaby/Nationals, not Turnbull.
Why is Cossie even in the consideration for the future is beyond me. In the last episode of the Coward Years last Monday, Cossie looked like a coward, a loser and a tragic figure. The punters know that. Move on pls, focus on the younger guns.
BH he’d had a busy day, off the plane from Indonesia then to Bendigo then did 7.30 Report.
Seems like the Bendigo folk like Kevie
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/12/2445162.htm?site=centralvic
But Finns – the younger mob have also worshipped at the shrines of either Howard or Costello.
Just listen to them. The only thing they really excel in is personal denigration of Govt. Ministers. The mantra is that the Govt ARE incompetent fools whereas the voters thought in 2007 that the Coalition were. Shows how much more intelligent the voters are.
Apart from Hunt there is hardly a decent, positive thought among them and he often spouts off without thinking first.
During the few times that I have been to QT this year I have been embarrassed at the performances of Pyne, Ciobo & Co. who sit on the end of the opposition bench. They act like schoolboys during the whole session.
My grandson and his mates are more together than that mob.
T
I forgot that Vera – events move so quickly nowdays that even his trip to Bali seems ages ago. Doesn’t that Bendigo crowd cheer the spirit up.
I hope he takes a well earned break over Christmas. He deserves it.
Heard ABC TV News here last night say that Rudd was copying Obama’s plans for infrastructure building. What!! I said – Obama, I felt, put Rudd’s ideas into his campaign but now we are supposed to believe that Rudd had no infrastructure plans before yesterday. I think the ABC is relying on juniors to write their damn news leads. If seniors are writing that stuff then our 8c+ a day is well and truly wasted.
Have just finished a book called “The Race” by RN Patterson. Was written in 2007 about US republican race for nomination. A character in it was a deadset ringer for a certain well known media magnate with connections to a ‘fair and balanced’ tv outlet. From watching the recent election bunfight over there it seems that the author had some terrific insider information.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/rudd-savages-struggling-turnbull-on-ir-20081213-6xts.html
Quite a savage article from the Herald.
Oz:
“There was only limited reaction from the opposition on Friday when the government announced it would spend $4.7 billion on infrastructure to stave off the effects of the global financial crisis, a sign many frontbenchers were busier dealing with internal politics than holding the government to account.
Mr Turnbull heads into the break with woeful polls hanging over him and a damaged deputy leader, Julie Bishop, dragging him down.”
That is the really damaging bit. Australians turn off when a party becomes more preoccupied with itself than current issues.
Coalition in opposition for another 13 years.
It is unkind to refer to any Liberal Party members as revolting – with the possible exception of Christopher Pyne.
It turns out that an Indian Businessmen’s dinner three days before the arrest of the Illinois governor may be the key to the debacle.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081213/ap_on_re_us/illinois_governor_jackson
OT -
Any bets on how long it will take before this technology turns up in Oz? The coppers would love it
….
Re 269,
No, Tony Abbot and Mr. Old Age himself, Ruddock, fit the bill on this one as well
William, am I just unlucky today or have there been words within the quoted text from my news snippets that are flagging your moderation? I’ve had 3 today hit the moderation queue, albeit temporarily
When you have something in the mod queue, if it is a bad word, is that bad word highlighted or something? Or is it up to you to guess why it is there?
Cheers
If Rudd is extremely popular in a place like Bendigo then the Liberals are screwed, yes it is a ALP seat but Bendigo is the type of place that is good at giving it too Government but if Rudd’s populary is holding then Rudd can be very pleased indeed.
Malcolm Turnbull seems to be struggling with the whole notice off what to do with the budget, Malcolm needs to work out is he willing to support a one or two years of deficits or is he against.
It should be very straightforward for someone who comes from a financial background.
Turnbull thinks the budget is a profit and loss statement!
367 Oz – yes a pretty tough Headline:
Rudd savages stuggling Turnbull.
When they start using adjectives like that, it’s not good. (and also pretty bad journalism – but then sub editors seem to operate under different rules…)
Profit – Turnbull’s vaingloriousness
Loss – Turnbull’s PPM
Does he really have financial background?
I mean if I was a lawyer in the mining sector does it mean I’d have any special insight into getting minerals out of the earth?
Is his financial mojo all a bit of a myth, because it seems at this stage he’s about as credible as Costello (no – not the Glen-world view – the Treasury-world view, and if you’re a non-neoclassical, even that’s worth diddly too)?
#371 –
WB is well known for, let put mildly, “i want to see you suffer” streak.
I just did the face to face Morgan Poll.
The political questions were as you wold expect, they weren’t polling for anything special there.
Though they did ask “right track / wrong track” questions that Morgan seems to love these days.
378 Finnigans,
That is a bit unfair imho …. sticking up for William here. With one singular exception and that was dealt with offlist [ That one time, we've agreed to disagree and I dropped it there, "off list and behind closed doors". ], since I’ve been on PB (about 6 to 9 months prior to the Federal Election), William has been well and truely fair with me. Even when I exceeded the bounds of acceptability about a month prior to the election in October 07, I deserved it then. That time the general topic was religion and we all know well and truely what kind of troubles religious issues can get us into on PB
…..
#365 – BH
At their peril, dear boy, at their own peril.
Anyway, let’s give some more joy to the Fibs with this scenario:
1. Mr. Lu Kewen to serve out this term
Bloody hell, he even has his own website: http://www.lukewen.com/
2. Mr. Lu will win in 2010 and serve out the full term
3. Mr. Lu will also run in 2013 and proclaim that he will pass the baton on to Julia Baby sometime in 2014/2015.
4. Julia Baby will run in 2016 and win
5. Julia Baby will also run in 2019 and win
6. Julia Baby will also run in 2022 and proclaim that she will pass the baton on to ????? sometime in 2023/2024.
Cricket anyone?
Finns
You rightly get slapped by William on a frequent basis for egregious misbehaviour which is only to be expected from a self-proclaimed Marxist revolutionary.
It’s interesting to speculate on 2009 and beyond.
While it would be nice to think that the Rudd Reich may extend for a thousand years, the reality is that next year will likely be the start of the decline in Rudd’s personal political capital. With unemployment and inflation likely to be higher next year, we have two of the three ingredients that traditionally lead to an election loss in place. (The other being higher interst rates). These combined with possible negative equity for home owning battlers, then it is not difficult to envisage a disgruntled Australian electorate.
Of course the Libs have been shooting themselves and their party down for some time with their poor tactics, selfish indulgences and lack of policy development. However, as we saw earlier this year in WA, this is not necessarily an impediment to being elected to Govern.
The good thing is that Rudd and the government are not kidding themselves about the job ahead. I wish them well but know in my bones that Labor’s huge ascendancy of the present will not be there at the end of 2009 and we will likely be looking at a tight election scenario in 2010.
ROTFL
….
When you say “face-to-face” did they come to your place?
The moderation filters are like the guided missile defence system on Magrathea – they take the occasional pot-shot to relieve the monotony. I have no idea why it picked on any of the comments that were put in the queue today.
yes, Diog, you are right again. Blooming hell, twice in a day.
As an honourary member of the FARC revolutionary Party of the Knowledge Tree Branch of Machu Picchu, WB often told me to go and get FARC.
I agree unemployment will be higher but why inflation? To me that makes no sense at all given prices going down.
Mugabe is always good for a laugh. It would be hilarious if people weren’t dying.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7780728.stm
This article suggest greece is a ready to go totally Feral
maybe ‘73 all over again
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/13/athens-greece-riots
“How police shooting of a teenage boy rallied the ‘€700 generation’”
384 Greensborough Growler I don’t agree with that assessment. While Rudd is seen as doing everything he can to alleviate unemployment he will be given credit for his efforts. Knowing Rudd he will be flat out all next year doing just that.
You seem to think people will blame this government for all of the world’s economic ills. I don’t buy it.
Julia wont be PM for the same reason Tanner isnt Treasurer…the ALP would be stupid to nominate a leader from the Left faction…unless they want to lose an election…Gillard is not a future leader of the ALP the most likely candidate to take over after Rudd is Fitzgibbon…Gillard wouldnt win an election even if she faced off Brendan Nelson.
Glen
your on crack for sure
‘ you’re ‘ Gusface
Turnbull thinks a budget is a profit and loss statement!!
Well it is, but as any businessman or women knowns they have to spend money in order to position the business to make money!
Bascially Rudd is position the business called Australia to overcome a global crisis, so the question for Malcolm is what is his business plan!!
Someone ask does Turnbull really have a financial background when he acted in a position of legal, this is a good point but still if you are dealing with the financial sector you should have some idea what is happening.
finance is one part of the economy that is rather straightforward to learn about.
When Julia is compared to Rudd as PPM she falls behind. However, when she is compared to any Liberal, she wins. I think Julia Gillard would make a fine Prime Minister, and a beloved one. That lady is coming on in leaps and bounds and so she should. It gives me great comfort to know that if Rudd fell under a bus we have real depth in the Labor Party, at all levels.
By contrast the Libs and Nats seem like a loose coalition of total losers.
Gillard is a joke and she’s not a leader, just a cold hearted individual who is a closet socialist…no Australian would buy into that Bushfire…she wont lead the ALP because the ALP knows it cant win an election with a left faction leader….
I’m starting to see Julia Gillard has the ability to win an election, she has the ability to make decisions and is known has someone who can get the job done.
She presents well, appears approachable and based on her parlianmently performances appears witty and is clearly very intelligent.
Julia Gillard did very well to maintain her position in Lalor for it is a seat that is more middle class than the west of the west and in many ways was prime Howardland but Gillard was never seriously threatened.
As was quoted Gillard knows how to operate in a mans world, remembering she is in the left faction the fact remains her biggest battles have been with her own faction and she has emerged victories over them.
Julia Gillard is more electable than Lindsay Tanner for while I like Tanner he doesn’t have Gillard’s work history.
Glen!! I know many professional women who hold Gillard in high regard for sure she doesn’t come off as a dear mummy but as a professional women who knows how to operate and how to win an arguement.
Approachable lol are u kidding approachable to a bunch of union bosses yes that’s approachable!
Knowing how to operate in a mans world doesnt mean shes knows how to lead or discount the fact that her socialist ideas or not shared by the majority of Australians….
and you are on crack
whats your point?
Glen!!
Its funny you meantion being appeoachable to Union leaders, that is funny for I know for a fact that Julia Gillard is happy to disagree with Union leaders, they know when it comes to dealing with Julia that she is no push over!!
That if Gillard cant get IR right by giving Unions more power than before and cant get the Education Revolution going because she muffed the Laptop policy and her history with buggering things up (Medicare Gold) she is vastly overated…
Glen lets remember Julia Gillard stared down the Labor for Refugees, that group was made up with mostly fellow members of her own Left faction and yet Gillard was more than able to stick to her guns and won over them! that very issue could have split the ALP but she was able to steer that policy though the ALP!
You criticise Gillard using exaggerated, irrational terms Glen. That is a sure sign of a man who desperately hopes she doesn’t become PM because you know she would be very successful in keeping the Libs right where they are now.
IR! The major business groups are happy with the proposed I.R laws! if the laws are so bad for business then why is Malcolm allowing it too pass the senate
Education! this is mostly a state issue and regardign the Laptops from my understanding the laptops are being rolled out
Medicare Gold!! Yes that was a dogs policy which was invented by the Catholic Health service spokeman whos name escapes me for the moment.
Que Jumpers are coming in by the ship load thanks to Rudd’s laxed laws now thankyou Prime Minister!
Gillard ruined Labor in 2004 with Medicare Gold.
Gillard stuffed up the Laptop Policy which is a joke being such an underfunded policy.
Gillard is an extremist by giving the Unions more power in Labours Fair Work Australia for Unions Bill.
Gillard is loved by the media because shes a woman.
Ahh reading that post made me twitch. So much rubbish but I’ll let someone who can be bothered deal with it.
“runined”
“stuffed”
“extremist”
Glen, what are they putting in your twisties down there at HQ!
Que Jumpers are coming in by the ship load thanks to Rudd’s laxed laws now thankyou Prime Minister!
Glen!! Australia will forver remain an attractive target for people who want a better life after all we are the best country in the world!! the numbers are still below that of 2000-01
Gillard ruined Labor in 2004 with Medicare Gold.
This policy was a dog’s policy but lets remember Mark Latham was a dud leader and the guy from the Catholic Health service should stick to running his health services rather than try and invent national health policy
Gillard stuffed up the Laptop Policy which is a joke being such an underfunded policy.
This policy is being rolled out, I don’t see the problem.
Gillard is an extremist by giving the Unions more power in Labours Fair Work Australia for Unions Bill.
I call on the Liberal Party to walk into the senate and block it if it is so bad, also may I point out that several leading business types alligned with the Liberal Party helped create the policy (Heather Rigout)
Gillard is loved by the media because shes a woman.
Loves the media for she is a pollywaffle.
Exaggeration 1
No, Latham did that.
From page 2 of the Liberal handbook of exaggerated criticisms I believe.
Page 3
Same with Julie Glen? Of course you know this is total BS.
“Heather Rigout”
I’m guessing that was a deliberate misspelling!
There are two jokes in Exhibition St!!
Inner Westie!! No I thought that was how her name was spelt
Inner…Labour just footed the bill for the computers, not for the extra plugs, security. aircons/fans, maintenance and upkeep of the Laptops and so it is going to cost a hell of a lot more than Madam Julia said it would!
WHAT! The government is spending money on computers!
Why couldn’t they waste it on fridge magnets!
It was an ill conceived idea to begin with but it was an election commitment so they will do what they can to achieve it in the best possible way.
So you don’t want the Government to pay for it? You don’t agree with the policy? You can’t have it both ways.
Or on TV advertising selling their “unpopular” IR policy. 40 million sounds about right.
Or on Crosby Textor advertising.
Or on rainmaking machines
Or on silk lined private jets
or on ……
You’re right ltep, kids shouldn’t have the latest technology to help their learning. Give em slates I say.
Gary,
They were good enough in Howard’s day!
Does anyone else remember using an abacus at school?
I have a fair bit of experience of working with the health system therefore I want to address the issue of Medicare Gold, the problem with that policy was not that it in itself was a bad policy but due to the cynically nature in which our Health system is run and funded.
The policy was open to abuse and therefore would have been a complete farce, the blame for this falls at the feets of State Governments and for Glen’s knowledge this include the Liberal Party Government lead by Jeff Kennett and his casemix model.
421 – How about a regional rorts program?
MayFeral@346 and 347 (heh, heh)
Read the link, for which much thanks. Humbling stuff. Am trying to rework my thoughts on Australia’s war in Afghanistan into the framework of that article. Very challenging.
Glen @ 416
Which is why the state governments got a bit shirty about it. They learned that they would be up for lots of extra bickies, and those bickies had to come from somewhere.
424 – I remember the slide rule.
Yeah, me too. No one over 12 allowed on the slide.
430 – Good one Fulvio.
Mayoferal @ 346 & 347, as with Boerwar, I was very impressed with the article and will be sending it off to a number of people. Many thanks.
Hmmm
The, under the conservative government of Karamanlis, the foreign debt of Greece is equivalent to 91% of GDP, unrestrained lending by the banks has hamstrung possible government responses to the Crisis, and a big slab of Greece was burnt to the ground in uncontrolled wildfires. That is probably why the right wingers aren’t in the streets torching the place. They have done a much better job from inside their offices.
Glen wrote, inter alia
Poor old glen, sounding more and more like someone sitting on a large and pointy spike.
Glen @ 408, while your persistence in representing the Tories is certainly to be admired, it’s these strange outbursts that screw up your efforts.
For what it’s worth, I thought Malcolm Turnbull’s interview by Kerry O’Brien was woeful. Both himself indoors and myself said, this man doesn’t have much of a clue about the economy, and even less about being a politician.
Typical Liberal response to Rudd’s infrastructure progam. Oh, they agree with it but don’t believe that it will create the number of jobs the government says it will. Once again agree but disagree.
At least the Infrastructure program is being funded now instead of the Liberal method of promise big ticket infrastructure spending before the election and then make it a non core promise when the funding was due.
Gary Bruce, they clearly have a very cunning plan to shoot themselves in the foot, over and over and over. It reminds me of the joke about the red headed chick who goes to the doctor, saying she hurt all over her body, and demonstrating by poking her shoulder with her finger, and screaming; her knee, screams; her belly, moans and screams; her earlobe, whimpers and cries. The doctor says, “You’re not really a red head, are you?” “No, I’m a blond”. Doctor says, “You’ve got a broken finger.
I don’t know what KR is going to do with himself next time he visits NY.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24790712-953,00.html
Speaking of funding laptops …
Or “pole” watching.
broad band ?
Or stimulus packages …
Youse guys are sick
scorpio started it …
Whaddya want? A stimulous package. When do you want it? Anytime you can deliver it. And, BTW, lay off the s*xual appeal or otherwise of the female members of parliament, or the three legged cat gets it.
Kerist, he’s bad at typing!
Pathetic, Inner Westie, just truly, deeply pathetic. Funny, though.
Behind every cloud, there’s always a silver lining. Lets hope Rudd & Co can take advantage of it.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24792120-953,00.html
yeah, I agree Harry.
Glen
A serious question, did more “queue jumpers” arrive in 2008 or 2007?
I bet you don’t find the answer to comfortable.
Scorpio, I’d have a lot more faith in C&K being able to run childcare better than ABC Learning did. It got to the point in Brisbane a few years ago that children could hardly avoid the clutches of ABC Learning as they took over childcare centres in a mad frenzy. It was reminiscent of the Bond and Skase way of doing business.
William,
I’m surprised you haven’t done a post on Westpoll which is 55-45 for Barnett, but with the main focus on Eric Ripper’s Preferred Premier rating of 12. Guess which bit made the bulk of the story ?
Honeymoon, Frank, honeymoon.
I just watched Turnbull on 7.30 report online. My only comment is that he is not a politician and needs some serious media coaching.
My bet is he will leave politics after the next election and become a commentator, a bit like Hewson. His attention span seems to be about 6 years.
Wow, someone finally let Julie Bishop out of her cage.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/13/2445733.htm
As I said last night – allbull is a DUD !
Oz,
Reading that, it is clear that the Libs have absolutely “NO” idea how to operate in opposition without the benefit of a substantial PS back-up to lead them along the right track & do their thinking for them.
Aren’t they at all embarrassed when stuff like this gets published or comes out in current affairs programs.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/13/2445733.htm
Must admit I’ve been surprised by Turnbull’s inability to perform given his intellect and capabilities. I can only conclude that he can’t cope with being in opposition. He may well make a better PM than an Opposition Leader. Fortunately he won’t get the chance. He doesn’t seem to have any idea of how to run an Opposition. I guess it’s the born to rule attitude. And I suspect Costello would have the same problem.
It seems to be pretty well documented to me.
http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/publications/pdf/Nation_Building_electronic.pdf
Winston, I keep hearing about Turnbull’s apparent intellect from a number of people but I didn’t see it when he was Enviro Minister and I don’t see it now.
Here’s the beginnings of a list of Opposition Leaders who pundits have claimed would have performed better as Prime Minister:
Kim Beazley
Mark Latham (”better” = “taken us on a more thrilling joy ride” in this case)
John Hewson
.
.
.
And here’s the beginnings of a list of Opposition Frontbenchers who I claim would have performed better as Gold Coast opal salesmen:
Christopher Pyne
.
.
.
I wonder how Julie thought they were going to build roads and rail lines without labour.
I agree. That bald headed bloke is a completely useless dimwit. There must be something in the water cooler in the Enviro Min’s office water cooler.
This latest effort by Julie Bishop seems to show she is too lazy to read the documents relevant to her portfolio. It has been perfected as a tactic in the past by the Queensland Opposition who up until tonight proudly wore the title of “the best resourced but laziest opposition in the history of Queensland” but I think this gaffe from Julie bishop as Shadow Treasurer surpasses even their lazy efforts.
And mouse pads. I have three or four Howar