The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has not replicated the Newspoll bounce, but that’s cold comfort for the Coalition as they still trail 59.5-40.5, unchanged from last time. The Greens are up three points on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 50.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and the Coalition is down from 35.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent.
We also have Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group. The outstanding features is a picture of relative Labor weakness in New South Wales, consistent with the theme that the state government is damaging their brand there. Charts galore from Possum.
In other news, 65-year-old back-bencher Philip Ruddock has made the surprise announcement that he plans to run again in his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Berowra. However, he seems in some danger of being blasted out by the state party’s vigorous Right faction, which did so much to contribute to the party’s success at the last election.
UPDATE: By popular demand, here’s a chart showing how Labor’s two-party vote has tracked across Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research this year. I only have figures going back to June for Essential, and have generally only used every second poll for Morgan and Essential to keep the figures concurrent with Newspoll. Alternatively, you could just look at Possum’s chart dump, which includes ACNielsen.
923 Comments
no it doesn’t adam it tells you how many entries not how many people searched for it
yes and ruddock is a real asset. not! Is kroger going to get Kooyong?
Gosh, a political opinion from William.
Oh I see, Centaur. No, I don’t know how you do that.
Another virtually identical poll result. That starts making the MOW look pretty small. So it looks like disunity and constant negative sniping is a bad look after all…
I want to correct my comment on the possible Australian fallout of the US Senate resisting the American Auto industry bailout. It might be worse for GM here than I thought. it seems Pontiac is one of teh brands GM is looking to cut in any rationalisation. That is the brand under which some Holden models are sold in the US. That would hurt the local operations a lot with no export income. Without them Holden might not be viable on their current local model lineup. They are supposed to be working on new local models but all I can say is they better get cracking. If the whole US parent folded Holden here would need to look for a foreign buyer fast.
I find the intro a bit odd. “failure to show the newspoll bounce”??? I would have thought 59.5/40.5 is exactly in line with the 59/41 Newspoll, and the fact the Morgan detected the bounce earlier is a function of the timing of the polls. The “failure to show a bounce” sounds like a Shanahanism to me!!
sorry “not replicated” rather than “failure to show”
The state by state break-up is quite interesting. Its hard not to believe that there has been a spill-over from NSW state politics into the Federal result. As NSW State labor has slipped, so has the federal result.
I can hardly blame the voters in NSW though. They have effectively been in a recession already for the past 12 months, when NSW economic and job growth has been zero to negative. If you took NSW out the national GDP figures would still be reasonable.
Well Soc’s
Aussie & Asian stockmarkets have dropped like pile drivers in the last 35 mins or so on the news that the US Senate have failed to agree a rescue package.
“Maybe” it is better for this to happen in our markets trading hours, but the screens are red as far as you can see.
I saw this elsewhere this morning – ” how come Honda, Toyota and others aren’t included in the US Bail out? After all, they make cars in the US, and employ tens of thousands of American car workers. They’ve also been suffering from a downturn in demand; they’ve also been losing money for their head offices.
If the Big Three (Losers) don’t survive, Toyota, Hyundai and Honda will still be buying parts – that will save at least some of the fictional 3 million jobs that ‘depend on the car industry’.
Heaven knows what will happen to our car manufacturers. Being foreign subsidiaries hasn’t stopped Ford Australia & Holden from sticking out their tentacles for money from the Australian government; Toyota Australia likewise.”
So we see Morgan, Newspoll and Essential research all pretty close now. Does anyone know how usual it is for the results to be this similar? Does it mean anything?
Andrew, bounce suggests a change in trajectory, and this is the same result as last time. Might be an idea to read my whole sentence.
Andrew, if you left out the “Shanahanism” bit, you might have got away with it ….
Federally Labor is still in front of the coalition in NSW and they are killing the opposition in QLD. On those figures losses in NSW would be made up in Qld one would have thought but of course an election isn’t being held now is it?
Dave
Thanks I hadn’t been following the markets but that doesn’t surprise me. However old fashioned and badly run, a lot of businesses still rely on the US auto industry for their market. I find it pretty eggregiousthat they can find 700 billion to rescue a few thousand invest mbankers in wall Street who can screw up or possibly even commmit fraud, while the cant find 15 billion to maintain hundreds of thousands. you may eb right about the 3 million jobs being fictitious, but teh flow on effects would come close. GM now employ 100,000 in the US; 6500 in Australia as of 2007.
My previous post wasn’t suggesting that all 3 (GM, Ford and Chrysler) will all go down though. Ford are in much better shape than GM, and Chrysler are mid-field.
However the point of my post 6 was in some ways even more pessimistic for GM locally. Even if GM in the US are bailed out, if they plan to kill Pontiac in any rationalisation that will hurt GMH. They could be in trouble either way.
William I did read the whole thing. I am saying the “bounce” was already in the previous Morgan, so I dont know why you would focus on that rather than the fact that the absolute numbers are similar, unless you were trying to put a negative spin on it
seems the bailout was scrapped because the republicans wanted to cut wages.
Charming.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/11/murky-future-for-auto-res_n_150148.html
I’ve done a chart comparing Newspoll, Morgan and Essential. Barring a few quirky individual polls, Morgan is generally three points better for Labor than Newspoll. Essential was consistently two points above Newspoll for a while there, but it’s become erratic lately. They were a bit coy when I asked them whether they’d changed their methodology. Their sudden unanimity around 59-41 is indeed very unusual – it shows up as a bounce in Newspoll and Essential which is, as I say, not replicated in Morgan.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2008/12/081212threepolls.jpg
zombie – thats why the repubs want GM Form etc to file chapter 11 – then the workers get right royally screwed – and the auto companies just leave the smoking mess and start over.
charming indeed.
They voted for Obama though Dave lol!
Gary @14
Coalition in NSW has lost ground in primaries as well
Coalition At election 40,1 now 38
ALP At election 44.5 now 41
And when it comes to 2PP ALP is up slightly since election(54.2 now 55)
Which would mean they shouldn’t lose seats and need to rely on QLD
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/1201%20State%20&%20Dem%2012-12-08.pdf
Interesting you see humour in the coming pain a estimated 3 million workers.
William Bowe
“The Greens are up three points (on Morgan) on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent, which was also not reflected in Newspoll.”
But Newspoll already had Greens at 10% so wouldn’t expect Nrewspoll to take Greens to 13% It may be more that Morgon previously had Greens at 7.5% which thought was unrealistic too low (now corected to 10.5% with most offset reducing Labors primary 2%)
I live to give Dave
Thanks Ron, I had a false recollection of this week’s Newspoll showing the Greens vote in single figures, so I’ve chopped that bit now.
Essential this year has provided the lowest Coalition primary vote while Morgan face to face has consistently provided the highest ALP primary vote. On the TPP it’s all over the place with the pollsters.
All the polls this year are in the top three charts – they’re messy but give the idea. They probably need some LOESS regression fits run through them.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/chart-dump/
Adam and Centaur – go to google trends (http://www.google.com/trends?q=diogenes). Interesting site if you are interested in search stats.
Tom
The car company bailout in the US has collapsed. Unless Bush steps in ASAP, watch US markets on Friday and by extension, the ASX (on Monday), to tank big time
No more Ford or GM lol how stupid are the executives for running their businesses into the ground.
Looks like this is something even the Messiah Obama cannot fix lol!
Obama aint in yet
Neither is a slightly more friendly senate
Then it is another reason for the left to demonize Bush i guess.
Socrates @ 15 -
Even if GM in the US are bailed out, if they plan to kill Pontiac in any rationalisation that will hurt GMH. They could be in trouble either way.
As I understand it GM wanted the Commodore/Pontiac because it satisfied a need some have for a powerful rear wheel drive car. Presumably, if they wanted to continue catering for that segment GM would continue selling them as Chevys or whatever.
That said, if GM goes belly-up then we can kiss Holden goodbye anyway. I can’t see anyone else wanting to buy the operation given the state of the international financial market unless Rudd is prepared to put big bucks into the mix. Plus, by world standards, Elizabeth is small beer. No doubt they could build a much bigger factory in China for the money and export the cars to both America and here for a fraction of the price.
Glen, for reasons I don’t fully understand (I’ve been trying to search out a net reference as to why today) the auto problems are only surfacing at GM and Chrysler. Now, it may have something to do with the fact that Ford is a majority owned family company, so while they trade on Wall Street, stocks owned by the public are < 50% of total available shares.
As if they need them…
So Juliem do you reckon Ford will survive?
Editorial from the Detroit Free Press (suspect that they had this written ahead of time, it appeared mighty quick)
I wrote
Glen wrote
Thats an interesting template to apply when fib voters complain in future.
Rest assured i will treasure reminding you of such.
Glen, your comment #29 is a new low.
Fulvio if you cant take a joke that’s sad, of course not all of them voted for Obama lol maybe 2 voted Republican…
21 – Vera, you make a very good point. Given that Labor is doing so poorly in NSW you would have thought the coalition federally would be making up ground there, not going backwards so this is not a real bad result for federal Labor in NSW, not as good as it could be but not as bad as one might expect either.
A whole series of “jokes” taking delight in others misery.
Way out of line. Why am i not surprised.
The fibs is the bastion of the selfish. It won’t affect glen so why should it really matter. his family don’t work there. Besides he probably owns a Honda
Possum the figures might be a bit all over the place, but I can handle an “all over the place” 2PP for Labor between 54 and 65 without too much trouble!! And the year-end covergence at 59 is a nice Christmas present indeed!
Thanks William for the charts
Dave you take delight in the Liberals misery daily and that of George W Bush….
Mitsubishi Cenataur…but my next car will be a Honda.
Look i can empathise with these people but perhaps the downfall of those companies will spark new ones that are profitable and gives them employment…ie more fuel efficient cars ect.
William Bowe
“Thanks Ron, I had a false recollection of this week’s Newspoll showing the Greens vote in single figures, so I’ve chopped that bit now.”
Actualy William , Essential hav Greens at 7% so thats what you may hav been tinking of …although feel that low Greens figure will move up
Glen you are pluming new lows your comments taking delight on the coming suffering of an estimated 3 million people.
Thats a disgrace.
they could probably name cars after political parties.
the labor- fuel eficient 4 cylinder/injected ute, hard working reliable, and all terain
The liberal- 8 cylinder inefficient imported rubish. Unreliable can only drive in city, requires over seas parts and can only be serviced by Liberal dealer
The Green- biodegradable 2 cylinder hybrid
The National- a tractor
From a purely political pespective, I’m surprised the Republicans didn’t support the auto bailout. What if the Big Three auto makers do go bankrupt on Bush’s watch? He’s a Republican president. Bush presided over a credit crunch, a market crash, a deep recession, and now there’s the possibility of the collapse of the US auto industry, in the country that invented the automobile. Bush can be painted by the Dems as the Herbert Hoover of the 21st century. Bush’s presidency will poison the Republican brand the same way Hoover and the Great Depression did.
If they were 3million Australian workers i wouldnt be taking delight i can guarantee you that…
Is it possible to keep these threads for Aus politics?? There are other places to discuss US politics if you so desire. Makes the discussion here very disjointed
yes time to put the walls up around australia again. quick i can hear those jobless mexicans coming
If the US car industry collapses that will have a profound effect on Australian politics.
glen wrote
why would anyone take ANY delight of ANY worker – let alone 3 million workers losing their jobs ?
Any news on the coalitions meeting.Is Barnaby the new leader of the opposition? Fiona Nash was easy on the eye. how dare they shelve her
Nash has considerable talent. They won’t be able to bench her for long.
Centaur009!! (footsteps)
Adam is right this is big news for Australian politics for there are several suburbs in Melbourne and Adelaide that could be hit very hard by this but there is a bit of DeJa Vu happening for we saw the House block the first moves to bail-out the banks then the market took a pounding only to have a new plan that was passed.
I think the same will happen here! I’m sure the Republicans will not want to be seen as the wreckers of three million jobs and the deth of American icons like GM
What does it matter to me?? The economy is already ruined in the short term ive already lost thousands with my shares so what’s some more short term pain for me?
I guess Rudd will be putting more money into our Auto Industry….but eventually Rudd is going to run out of money soon enough.
Dave, I don’t think Glen had thought through the interpretation that you and I have given his comment. I’ll be charitable enough to leave it at that.
Centaur…Fiona is a looker but she’s got more talent than Barnaby, she was only elected in 2004 i think. Agree with you on that one, why demote her and not have any consequences for Barnaby or Top End Nigel??
It’s all about Glen. maybe there should be the Glen factor to consider when making desicions.Will it affect Glen? No , then we should be Ok.
Typical self centered conservative sentiment. me myself and I
Scientific proof that Democrats are smarter than Republicans (and by extension, Labor voters have higher IQs than Libs
).
http://www.slate.com/id/2206512?nav=wp
Glen!! Everything that is wrong with the Right of politics can be summed up by you attempting a joke! up to 1-10 American jobs could be impacted for that is how many people are employed in relation to the car Industry.
I’m tipping on open Wall St to drop by 700-1000 points to finish with a drop of 300!!
I’m curious what is the payrate of an American car maker vs that of a Japanese car maker
Why am i castigated when i had nothing to do with the demise of their Auto Industry?
If it means anything to you i think the executives of GM et al should be in jail for gross mismanagment and their assets given to staff in redundencies….
As someone said, not all conservatives are stupid but all stupid people are conservatives.
Possibly jumped th horse over th cart with auto in ‘oz’ All is not lost in Detroit , its Russian roulette , Big car ar uncompetitive & obsolete plant with big short & long wage liabilities and Chapter 11 fixes that (if Govt giv bailout to retool) Also both Partys Agenda’s ar both diferent , but Senate doesn’t vote on party lines so its not over
But may add , these Big car CEO’s lobbed up to congress wanting 25 billion plus 15 biollion handout…what do they turn in , there own private planes…like turning up to a homeless kitchen in a tux , driving a lambergini
Glen!! I was not castigating you!! I was simplly unimpressed with you saying that you were making a joke!! I have been here long enough to know that you can be sensible and we have agreed on a great number of issues and I’m the first to admit to being sarastic & cheecky at times!!
Duly Noted.
Adam, is Stephen Conroy a conservative? If not, your proposition is false!
LOL sick burn Westie!
Also what about Bidgood??
Conroy is not stupid , he has simply handled a worthwile internet censoring proposal with some foolish comments
Glen re Bitgood , yes I agree
Adam at number 66,
The quote was by John Stuart Mill:
“The trouble with the Labor Party is that they don’t really believe in Socialism, but they cannot wholeheartedly approve of private enterprise either.”
Joseph Grimond
Glen, that at least makes them somewhat balanced and centrist, as opposed to the radical conservatives, no pretence at being balanced or moderate, who call themselves “Liberal”.
There are two kinds of fools: one says, “This is old, therefore it is good”; the other says, “This is new, therefore it is better.”
William Ralph Inge
Take Eric Abetz, for example. He was described by Jack The Insider as “arguably the most right-wing politician in the country”.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_losing_battle_for_the_centre/
By what definition is this extremist a “Liberal” – except by party name?
Amigo Ronnie, is this my parrot escaping from the G Island?
Fellow bludgers, I think the reporting on today’s state by state polling in the Oz indicated that NSW was a problem for the ALP and could result in the Rudd Government being a ‘oncer’!
Well it’s partly right, NSW is flat, but QLD, WA and SA are very rewarding for the ALP.
I’ve posted a year end summary here for those interested parties.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=4513
“worthwile internet censoring proposal”
Worthwhile for whom? The Exclusive Brethren? (Who claim not to use the internet anyway.)
Actually, Dumb’s Dumber, Bidgood, would no doubt think it’s worthwhile too!
Fellow bludgers, I think the reporting on today’s state by state polling in the Oz indicated that NSW was a problem for the ALP and could result in the Rudd Government being a ‘oncer’!
Nah, if necessary we’ll chuck NSW out of the Commonwealth and flog it to the Kiwis. Half of New Zealand is already living at Bondi I’m told.
Peter Hartcher is worth a read.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/peter-hartcher/peter-hartcher/2008/12/11/1228585020479.html
Considering that both Eric Abetz and Petro Georgiou wear their glasses low on their noses, this can be ruled out as a measure of conservativeness.
Begging your pardon Andrew but the only time William has ever had a dedicated US thread that I am aware of was for the US elections which are now technically over. Unless something has been posted to the contrary in the last 3 hours, don’t think it is going to happen for you …….
Glen @ 35, I’ve no idea in the long term. In the short term, they are probably better off because they can draw upon family money to help out. However, they are in the same boat as everyone else with the decline in the value of their portfolios so it won’t last indefinitely ………
OK, now I have the FINAL episode of The Howard Years on my iPod.
It is the only episode needed.
What about the Minnesota recount! I’ve been biting my nails for the last month!
Fulvio @ 38, Glen speaks the truth. I know he and I agreeing on anything makes for very strange bedfellows but none the less …. I grew up in Michigan and I know it from living it. My dad spent 30 years in the automotive industry as well so I know it up close and personal.
The only thing that Glen glosses over is that the “executives” are a lot more then the current crop of CEO’s. There are multiple incarnations over the years and because they had to deal with heads of the employees unions across the table and still run their businesses, concessions had to be made in contract talks over the years. There is blame on both sides, management and employees and there is plenty of blame to go around. Kind of like peeling multiple layers off of an onion ……..
JulieM,
Andrew is a known troublemaker. Always happy to instruct people on what to think or say.
Finns has him teed perfectly.
Glen @ 65,
Glen, as noted in a post just a bit ago, I’m WITH you tonight. Weird, eh? The car industry falls apart and we get a greens leaning labor voter siding with a rusted on lib
…… It makes a HUGE difference, I will tell you, having lived it for years and years. I can see exactly where you are coming from. The ONLY regret I have is that it will deeply affect my parents as dad is a GM retiree and they are both 73 ……. I hope that Bush gives them some money and/or GM at least (don’t have a personal stake in the other two companies) can hold out until Obama is sworn in. Geez, am I going to miss being out of touch with news between 15th of January and Australia Day ….. going to live or die on the top of the hour news updates from the ABC as we move cross country …..
Showson,
Minnesota isn’t enough to merit its own thread
…. I’m waiting on that one too but much more interested actually on the brewing cesspool in the Illinois state house 
Mayo,
You got to admire Shanahan. He picks the only stat in the whole poll that is negative to Rudd and Labor and promotes it to the top of the batting order.
How many elections have there been when we are told that the voters differentiate between Federal, State and Council elections? Yet we are now told that NSW Labor is a burden on Federal Labor. Oh, come now.
“The hills are alive with the sounds of bullsh*t”.
juliem
I have seen reports that the asian auto makers with plants in the US, pay (in an overall package sense) “about” the same wages as the US auto companies. The “story” being they did this so that their workplaces didn’t become unionised.
The bid difference from what I have seen is legacy costs – the US auto companies have MANY MANY retirees on their books, ie people who toiled loyally on agreed packages and retirement benefits which have already been so called “re-negotiated” DOWN on several ocassions already.
Other media reports convey a totally different impression, almost to the point that the workers are the major problem and enjoy huge wages – akimbo wall street style ??
An appropriate picture given the news ….. watch Wall Street tank tomorrow
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/53322/thumbs/s-JUNKYARD-large.jpg
Dave @ 93,
That is exactly right …. things might have changed marginally over the years as you note near the end of what I snipped above but failing bankruptcy, there is no other legal way for them to avoid those costs …. that is why I fear what might be around the corner as it personally affects my parents …..
juliem
charming indeed – screw the worker yet again. Really sucks.
We are not seeing much here in australia, but presumably people in the US are screaming for blood. Convictions for the wall street stuff etc.
Media is very quite about what action is being taken against the shysters.
Jesus, watching Question Time has really lowered your guys’ standards.
In what universe is Fiona Nash a “looker”? Not in this one.
The foresight of Hawke and Keating to introduce individual super for all and the existence of universal health care under Medicare. Neither perfect, but at least Australian workers have some surety in the basics.
We rock!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/peter-hartcher/peter-hartcher/2008/12/11/1228585020479.html
Turnbull is really looking like a fool with Kerry.
Red Kerry is ripping Allbull apart right now
Gee Red Kerry’s giving Turnbull a tough time… Malcolm floundering quite a bit on the deficit/recession thing
We are about to see a transformation of quite historic proportions – the US is about to become a social democracy, abandoning 200 years of rugged individualism. Even FDR couldn’t quite achieve this, but Obama will, partly by design and partly because he will have no choice. Universal health cover, de facto nationalisation of the banks and the car industry, expansion of state supervision of the economy, state mandated energy reforms to reduce carbon-dependence – all this will transform the US economy and thus US society and politics. Everything the Republican Party has stood for for the past century and more is being trashed before our eyes. As Ronald Reagan said, though not in this context: It’s morning in America!
A very good friend of mine is pretty well connected at Holden and works at a high level… hears lots of comments from big execs and drafts their reports, letters and so on.
The word is that Holden will go under in less than two weeks if the bailout in the USA does not proceed. The local arm is “joined at the hip” to the parent company and the parent company will rip the guts out of their subsidiary to tip the loot into surviving another few weeks, if that’s what it takes.
Decision day is just before Christmas. Hold onto your hats. We could be in for a Big One.
BB,
Makes you think that Rudd and Co are trying despeately to stay in front of the curve with today’s industry announcements.
Painful times ahead.
Here’s Ron Paul bewailing the death of conservative America.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/12/house_debates_auto_aid_bill.html
I thought it was good!
I like it when Governments spend money on train tracks (but not trains).
Oz wrote ;
Haha I laughed at the original comments and let them go through to the keeper
Red Kerry would never question Rudd like that…Turnbull looked woeful…i guess all he needed to say was that i wouldn’t go into a deficit unless i absolutely had to and not doing so would make the situation worse or i would try not to and try to avoid a recession.
GG, No such thing. It will good for the soul, especially the Y-Gen. It’s about time they learn to be completely on their own, with no direction home, like a rolling stone. Things also look very painful on the G Island.
Lighten up Dave/Oz, Fiona Nash puts Kate Lundy to shame.
BTW dave i wasnt the first to mention comments about her appearance…just so you know i was provoked.
Glen, how does it feel like to be completely on your own, with no direction home, like a rolling stone, among the carrion crows here at PB.
Finns,
Disagree. Many Australians have been protected from the the coming tsunami to date. My feel is there will be a lot of Companies who survive to Xmas and then bid adieu to many in their work force. It may sound cruel. But, how cruel to let people go on annual holidays without a job when they return.
BB describes Holden, an Austalian icon. How many others are there waiting to fall?
Like it has since i found pollbludger…doing my part, putting up an alternative point of view…
Oh come on Glen, Kerry hammers politicians from all sides.
Turnbull simply had no clue what he was talking about.
Kerry asked: So do you support the stimulus package?
Turnbull: I don’t think it matters.
108 said
What utter garbage ! Have a look at last nights transcripts.
Of course he did. He is all piss and wind and the smart mouth lawyer act has severe limitations against anyone even a smiggen brighter than fran kelly.
allbull ….. was given amble chance to criticise the governments policy and approach.
Then he was surprised, wrong footed and was most certainly totally unprepared and unable to answer what HE would do. What HIS policy would be ? He was asked multiple times what HE would do.
He twisted like corpse on the end of a rope and still he did not, could not answer what he would do – even though he spent the initial part of the interview rebuffing what was being done by the government.
If allbull is the best, the brightest the fibs can offer, god help them all.
allbull is a DUD !!!
Scoring points off Glen is a fairly trivial exercise when we look at the scale of the crisis, the double crisis, the world is facing at the moment. This is one of the great turning points of modern history. Responding effectively to climate change and the GFC simultaneously is going to put activist government back in the saddle in all western countries in a way we haven’t seen since World War II. That’s why Rudd, Brown and Obama are riding the political wave of the future while the conservatives (to mix my metaphors) are going down the toilet.
So do you think Brown will win in 2010?
Gee you guys should put spoiler alerts on these posts, for those of us that haven’t got there yet.
GG, I was retrenched when the word “retrench” was not even in the dictionary and carried certain negative stigma. The funny thing was that I did better after each retrenchment.
In the end I retrenched myself, and the funny thing is, again, I am doing better and better. Bring in on.
The Tories are only 4 points up now and Brown is miles ahead on the “who is best to deal with the GFC?” question. You’s have to suppose he’ll call an election in the northern summer (”give me a mandate to work with Obama and Kevin Rudd to save the world”), and win it.
That isn’t necessarily, Polyquats – as someone who sees these interviews two hours later than everyone else, I can say that they never bear the slightest resemblance to the way they’re described.
William,
Please post your reaction to the Dud-Bull interview in due course.
Yes please, William. Thanking you in great anticipation and excitement.
Finns,
You are probably young, educated, handsome and have the gift of the gab.
Unfortunately, the people about to be screwed over in the GFC are middleaged, with limited education, kids and an excessive mortgage to support and with English as a second language.
God help the over fifties and imperfect.
Just when you dispair about our yank friends along comes this :
Former US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other top administration officials are responsible for abuse of detainees in US custody, a bipartisan Senate report says
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/rumsfeld-responsible-for-abuse-report/2008/12/12/1228585104472.html
Almost a duh moment – did they really think they could blame privates or corporals foe ever
116,
Canada is only marking time, it will eventually get on the bandwagon as well
GG,
That is exactly what I was referring to – the Y-Gen.
not the people you have just described.
What about NZ???
They voted in the Tories during the GLC???
Harper will stay alive, Iggy is more likely to deal with the Tories than the NDP/Bloc…
Cameron will smash Brown, anybody who thinks they’ve saved the world isnt concerned with bread and butter issues at home.
Also we’ve got Germany and Italy and France all with Conservatives in power
Mind you the LDP in Japan is probably going down.
I thought the Tory’s inability to understand what Brown has achieved demonstrates how out of touch THEY are.
The Tories have consistently been ahead of Labor…Brown is a lame duck…even the Germans are criticising his economic policies…
Glen
Australia too! Rudd is a fiscal conservative.
What does it mean to be a conservative?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/business/13auto.html?hp
This afternoon Reid was saying they were going to keep negotiating, right?
Key ran on Labour policies anyway.
It’s the same as usual, the Republicans can’t handle that auto workers are heavily unionised.
They’re New Zealanders! Enough said.
If there was one group of people around the world who would be silly enough to throw out a respected incumbent with good policies during a time of global financial instability and replace her with a populist and opportunistic merchant banker it would be New Zealanders.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/shot-tylers-nationalist-myspace-page/2008/12/12/1228585102348.html
Now, would it be too insensitive to say good riddance? Yes, it would, my apology. No, it wouldn’t.
Not economic policies ShowsOn…
Also Harper’s Tories won a strengthened minority and the Left got smashed in Canada’s recent elections…
You had better be worried because if you go too far in centralisation with Global Warming and the GFL….We (Tories) Will Bury You…in good time…
Read an article today that pointed out that the “Big 3″ have donated $100 million to the Republican Party and $30 million to the Democrats.
Guess that investment didn’t play out so well.
Another example of gross mismanagement wouldnt you say Oz?
Sarkozy is behaving like a social democrat – don’t forget the Gaullists have never accepted Anglo-Saxon conservatism. Merkel is dragging her feet and is getting a terrible press as a result. I don’t know how well placed the SDP is to beat her but they must be given a chance. Berlusconi isn’t a conservative, he’s a semi-fascist clown and gangster. If France, Britain, Germany and Spain are agreed, Italy will have to go along. The key is persuading Merkel to get with the new zeitgeist.
Oh let me guess, he proposed tax cuts!
The universal solution to any problem for your side of politics.
Strengthened minority –> Oxymoron
A majority of Canadians voting for the three left parties is “getting smashed”?
I wouldn’t be shocked if the next U.K election gives us a Labor/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government.
And I agree: Turnball was woeful tonight, really inept! I doubt he’ll be leader in 6 months time!
Dunno how that will work out.
Her foreign minister took the rather unprecedented step of openly criticising Brown’s domestic economic policy.
That was certainly true about this one, William.
Glen: You obviously supported Stephen Harper shutting down parliament, so he could avoid the opposition parties overthrowing his government. But of course the conservatives are past masters at subverting democracy.
Any deal with GM has to revolve around their pension gurantees and protection of worker entitlements.
Then like in the 30’s the Fed will say we will save you but you have to start manufacturing different things like rockets to Mars, matter transformers and the like.
Oz the Liberal Party won 77 seats…recieved their lowest vote in Canadian Political History…26.26% down almost a million votes from 2006.
Do you call that result the people of Canada wanting the Left???
The NDP barely improved on last time with 18.18%…and just 37 seats…
The Tories won 143 seats with 37.65%….
I think that both Canada and the United Kingdom are moving in the direction of proportional representation to the probable usual disadvantage of the conservatives in both places.
Proportional representation is a crock and it wouldnt fly…Canadians in BC voted against proportional representation and First Past the Post (the only democratic method of voting) is well entrenched…
Glen, my previous post still stands. You said “the left got smashed”. They received a majority of the vote.
The result in BC was 58% FOR BC-STV. The referendum only failed because of the excessively high 60% pass requirement rate.
They didnt stand as one party if they had they may have won they didnt so they lost.
Harper would have had a majority had it not been for the Bloc.
BC are voting again next year on BC-STV.
Good luck to them.
Proportional Representation for lower houses of Parliament create unstable Government…if you dont believe me look at Holland and Belgium!
Got to agree – looked like a fish on the end of a spear.
Tom.
Glen you may as well as well say “Harper would have had a majority had it not been for the Liberals and NDP”.
http://www.fionanash.com.au I didn’t say model, I said easy on the eye. She has the classic Aussie chick look, big teeth, gums, frekly, rides horses and is probably a libra.
Kate Lundy is on par. Kate Ellis tops them all, but I really liked Mia Handshin who missed out.
The Bloc are over represented because of the first past the post system.
http://www.fairvote.ca/files/news%20release%20-%20october%2015%202008%20-%20election%20results.pdf
Kate Ellis is overated.
Why do we have to through this every single time?
Correlation does not imply causation. You can’t look at the situation in Belgium, pick one variable and then say “It’s because of this!!!!”.
If you care so much about “stable government” to fix Belgium then you may as well chuck in an absolute monarchy.
“Stable government” at the expense of proper democratic representation is a very nanny-ish way of looking at things.
Same with Nicole Cornes =(
Oi! Why was 7:30 Report on tonight???
Was it the last show for the year? Bugger, I missed it… oh well I’ll just have to wait for the net… At first I thought, don’t tell me it’s still Thursday!
And Hajnal Ban.
Maa Handshin now advises Ellis (on youth affairsI think)
Grog, it’ll be on next week but Kerry’s gone on holidays.
Cheers Oz, but why the Friday show? (not that I was hanging out for Stateline…)
The problem in Belgium is that there are two different linguistic groups of roughly the same size who`s representative parties (most to all parties are split along linguistic lines) have trouble cooperating in Parliament. Because they are in quite geographically distinct areas single member electorates would not help. Single member electorates help geographically dense parties (the Nationals and the Bloc) over parties of larger size with a more spread base (the Greens and the NDP).
What about Norway?
What about Denmark?
What about Germany?
What about Austria?
What about Sweden?
All of these countries have trouble forming government because they have a poor voting system…
yeah but Handshin has brains too, Cornes didn’t seem to. Yes hajnal ban was good but she won’t go far with that name. It sounds to middle eastern for the nationals. They need smoths, jones, joyce etc. How did Barnaby the busy buzzy bee go at the meeting today?
There was a 7:30 Report because there is no Stateline over summer.
Glen! At the Canadian election the Liberals and NDP between them got 44.4%, compared with the Tories’ 37.6%. I don’t know what kind of a mandate you think 37.6% of the vote is. The Bloc got 10%, so if they join or support a Liberal-NDP government, that government will represent 54.4% of voters. End of discussion.
ARISTOTLE
Thank you , very informative Agree NSW need watching , although drop in some areas in coalition as well and both partys losses to minor ones is some Labor offset , but there’s a message there for Labor to heed & giv alot of focus on to distinguish
So you’ve gone from “unstable” to “trouble forming government”. Ill-defined and pointless.
If you hadn’t noticed, Canada with their FPP is “unstable”.
Who does it for the girls or our gay brethren? I’ld be curious to know
The problem in Germany is that the SPD won`t work with the Left Party in the West and therefore at federal level.
Austria has trouble because of the far right.
I am not aware of any Government forming trouble in Scandinavia.
I never said it was a mandate i merely said the Liberal Party got its lowest vote ever
e v e r in h i s t o r y!
26% of the vote and 77 seats and 1million less people voting for them.
The Tories are the most preferred and given a tick to continue as a minority government with 143 seats up from 126 otherwise they’d have gone backwards not forwards Adam.
The Bloc denied them a majority.
Adam the Bloc cannot be included…they want to break up the country they dont count as far as i am concerned and shouldnt have any power like what the Liberals and NDP want to give them should they oust Harper. The Lib/NDP Coalition should get its mandate from the people not from the Bloc.
Glen that is all bollocks and you know it. Feeble even by your standards. I thought you supported the Westminster system?
Glen if you want to cut the power of the Bloc then support PR because it would cut them from around 51 seats to around 28 seats and the would not have the balance of power because the Liberals, NDP and Greens would have a majority together.
I do but for gods sake how can any political party form a government with an organisation that wants to break up the country that is complete bollocks…
Yes if they have a majority with the Sepratists then yes there is nothing stopping them. But they should take it to the people…they never said they’d form an alliance with the Bloc.
In the Canadian Election this year a majority of voters voted for a losing candidate.
http://www.fairvote.ca/files/news%20release%20-%20october%2017%202008%20-%20orphan%20voters%20total.pdf
Tom, they all got one vote and it counted once that is democratic.
Stephen Smith I hear.
Your warped definition of democratic does not change the fact that a majority of voters voted for losing candidates.
I say warped because it discounts the ability of those votes to have a chance to elect someone because of where the vote is cast.
And how do fell about your pals the British Tories supporting a *separatist party* (the SNP) in government in the Scottish Parliament?
“And how do fell” = “And how do you feel”
Glen
You ar 1/2 right and 1/2 wrong I feel its outragous th Bloc who want to carve up th Country have balance of power , and your point is valid
But one has to accept in a democracy thats how th votes and Party shares came out of electon , and surely you ar not suggesting disenfranchising Bloc voters You hav to wear it and hope Bloc do not extract too many concessions from Lberals/NDP
Why is it outrageous? If the majority in Quebec want to secede, they have a perfect right to do so.
Glen, did you see this one yet?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/this-sucks-but-im-rooting_b_150442.html
While I didn’t write it, I could have. This guy goes a long way towards explaining why I agree with you on this one tonight …..
night in Canberra
adam
dare they call them (the SNP) the squadrone volante?
Um (strains to remember Scottish history) – I thought the squadrone volante was a PRO-union party?
Just saw Turnbull on The 7.30 Report. He was fine.
Adam about as well as the Labor Party does getting support from the Welsh Nationalists in Wales lol
the SV were supposed to vote in opposition to Union with English,but at the last moment sided with the pro union
(the duke of Hamilton de facto leader of the opposition discovered he was suffering toothache,and was not able to be present to vote.
That was the WA version, William, after it had been redubbed and photoshopped. In the ES version he was crap.
Yea Whilsts th some questons appeared deadly and viewers may hav loved that , perhaps some viewers didn’t watch how Turnbull handled them
Its like those TV Debates , each sides srtongest supporters feel there man once easily
won
1797
Tories in power in england ratified the Act of Security
Come on Glen I had to get a new password just to come in and share with you. On the one hand you are arguing mandate from the people and then you try to argue they don’t really matter (as in your broad definition of democracy and the majority not supporting the Govt in a FPP election). Come on try and keep to your great mandate of the people argument, or tack right across the course to the far side and stick with whatever voting result happens, but please don’t tack backwards and forwards from side to side without thinking you’ll be taking your argument backwards.
Answer the question Glen. *You’re* the one who is arguing that it’s forbidden to collaborate with separatists. I’m pointing out that a party you support is doing just that.
And incidentally the BQ has *two* stated policy objectives. One is an independent Quebec, but the other is the defence of Quebec interests within Canada. If the BQ has decided that a Dion government would be better than a Harper government for Quebec’s interests, they have every right to vote Harper out.
I really hope Handshin gets in next election. She would make a very good minister.
and she is hawt
Ron “I feel its outragous th Bloc who want to carve up th Country”
‘Why is it outrageous? If the majority in Quebec want to secede, they have a perfect right to do so.’
Outrageous of Bloc because they ar sitting in a National Parliament sanctimonously claiming to form a National government , when at every turn they will wish to break th country up
That is quite separate issue to th absolute right of majority Quebecans wanting to secede Th block hav a right to be National parliament but to be ‘part’ of th National govt of National Cnada is hypocritical at best , but not last politicans to do so
Read my last post before the fold, Ron
the minister of sport and her adviser in the parliament gym change rooms… soaping each other up in the showers..
hmmm wrong website for that I guess…
Well, there is that too
Well if Harper is also negotiating , then my criticism applies to him also
Aspect of Bloc policy of defending Quecbec’s interts within Canada may be a byproduct of riority , secession
I do not object to Quebecans majority wanting to secede Also I do NOT object to Bloc having members sitting in National Parliament 9democracy , and Glen should reely accept that and wish he would ) , but I do object to them being ‘part’ of a National Govt of a County they wish to dismember Of course from therepoint of view its a politcal advantage to do so , and it is democracy but doe not make it free from criticisng
Just wonder if in theory , One Nation had balance of power in HoR and had to choose if Howard Govt to continue or Rudd to continue , how one would react however she choosed….
I think we are all a little biased and a little quick to judge that Red Kerry has torn one of the conservatives to smitherines on the 7.30 Report. However, that was certainly the case tonight.
I have said Turnbull is a LIGHTWEIGHT from day one. Looks like I was right again.
Zombie and Dario, if you you don’t mind, these are people I know. If you want to masturbate there are other websites you could visit.
I’d say Cossie was sitting back with a glass of red in one hand and the remote in the other, a smirk from ear to ear
agree totally
Come on Adam… we only said she was hot, and she is!
has anyone seen cossie and turnbull in the same room at the same time?????
Introduction…?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/12/2445471.htm
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2005/09/12/costello_wideweb__430×286.jpg
Bah, anyone could have done that with Photoshop
Kate Ellis was offered $30k to appear nude in one of the mens magazines. The money would have gone to charity. Kate laughed at the offer, but refused.
Agree totally to #209 These people deserve proper respect
.
Centre , if you were diog , I’d be saying …you ar wrong…again
You started off saying “we are all a little biased and a little quick to judge that Red Kerry has torn one of the conservatives to smitherines…” and then prceeded to be ‘a little biased and a little quick to judge anyway Thats like th numerous people who ar about to insult me saying ‘I don’t wish to arrogant but , and then proceed to be arrogant , and can never understand appology of th insult before delivering that very insult
There is no god…
Actually that photo looks like they’ve just eaten a s**t sandwich
they better get used to a daily serving
Ron, no.
I am not being biased about tonights interview. As for being arrogant, I’m only having a little fun.
I’m with Ron and Adam (OMG – is the sky falling?). I’m a little tired of the objectifying of female politicians. Grow up, boys.
And as much as it pains me to admit it, while Allbull is a pathetic light weight, he survived the Kerry the Red reasonably well today. Nothing there to worry the rusted-ons.
Just checking some of the earlier comments, even Glen reckons Turnbull got smashed by Kerry.
Centre so Glen thinks Turnbull got smashed and William says he was fine…Who to believe??!!!
The sky is falling. Glen is right, William is wrong.
Centre
steady on there old son,
william is never wrong-only sometimes misguided
Well I;ve seen it and Im with Glen. My fave bit about deficits:
KERRY O’BRIEN: When you talk about now saying that one should – government should only go into deficit as a last resort, what in your terms is a last resort? Is this not last resort? And they’re not in deficit yet. They’re saying at this stage they’re not going to go into deficit, but they’d be prepared to if they had to. So, what’s last resort for you? Will you wait until we’re in recession, or … ?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Kerry, well, Kerry, Kerry, we’ll see. I mean, the reality is …
KERRY O’BRIEN: You don’t know?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Kerry, you don’t know either.
KERRY O’BRIEN: No, no, but what I’m saying to you is: you’ve said “as a last resort”. Surely you must have some definition in your mind of what constitutes a last resort before a government would act to go into deficit in order to protect an economy.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: OK, this is the definition – you mightn’t like this – but, what the Government has got to do is to get the best economic outcome for the money it spends. And so what it’s got …
KERRY O’BRIEN: Oh, well, you’re just going to repeat what you said before, because that isn’t a definition of last resort.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: No, but, you see, the fact is the Government’s got to work out what outcome it needs in terms of stimulating the economy or supporting employment or whatever it is, you know, or providing social equity to people on lower incomes – whatever its goal is. It’s then got to seek to achieve that outcome by using taxpayers’ money most effectively. In other words, it’s got to get the biggest bang for the fewest number of dollars, the fewest bucks. And that is – and the concern that I have and that I think a lot of Australians have is that Mr Rudd will not be as hard-nosed about spending taxpayers’ money as he ought to be and that will in effect use the current financial crisis as a leave pass to relax his discipline. And that’s why …
KERRY O’BRIEN: Now, Mr Turnbull, with respect, you’re simply repeating what you’ve said earlier twice now. The question really was …
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well it was right the first time.
KERRY O’BRIEN: No, no. The question really was: how do you define what a last resort is, at which point, you, if you led a Government, would be prepared to go into deficit? You’ve said that’s when Governments should go into deficit, but you won’t tell me what you regard as last resort. Is it before an economy goes into recession to try and stop that happening, to try and prop up jobs? Is it after it’s gone into recession? Is it before it heads into a deep and prolonged recession?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, the short answer is that a Government should not go into deficit other than as a last resort.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Yes.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: And a last resort means that you shouldn’t go into deficit unless, without going into deficit, you would cause – you would fail to prevent serious economic harm in the economy.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Like a recession?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, exactly. That’s right.
Andrew yes. I thought the worst part of the interview was when Turnbull said to some business gathering that Rudd should be managing the economy like a business and running a tight ship.
So Kerry asked something like, would you cut jobs and cut expenditure like business at a time where we face possible recession? Turnbull did not know what to say. He is clearly not upto the job. He is all reputation. I say this at a time where Rudd is not at all threatened by anybody in the Liberal Party.
There was some speculation in the Herald today that Hockey might be moving to State parliament to take over from Barry.
The last sentence of #228 is certainly true. I’ll reserve judgement on the previous sentence.
It has rained in Canberra all day and all evening without a break. Maybe the drought has broken. Penny Wong could be delivering her big statement on Monday in two feet of water.
Ok, I’ve had several glasses of red, but reading that transcript back all I could do was laugh myself silly… surely Malcolm could have kept on about the line he has been trying to get out there so far, i.e. JOBS. When Kezza says ‘whats your definition of last resort’ you say when JOBS are lost! You hammer JOBS. Sheesh, even I could have done a better job of it half cut! (no pun intended). Cossie, where are you???
Also what about the fact that tax cuts are RECURRING, whereas the stimulus package is directly targeted at boosting the economy?
Turnbull had no answer. He was totally speechless. He is out of his depth. Politics is truly not his field of expertise and he should be doing something else.
Sydney too. 5cm added to the catchment in 24 hours. Precipitation will always be higher under a Labor government.
check out the latest images
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml
Yeah, you almost felt sorry for him
Genius.
Adam way back at #102 said:
Cant disagree.
Now picture this – GM files for Chapter 11 but soon realises that it’s effectively insolvent because of it’s enormous future liabilities regarding pension payments and healthcare provision for its past workforce. Bailout packages are designed and taken to the House but conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats join in an unholy alliance to prevent tax payers money from being pissed up the wall in an exercise of industrial palliative care.
China steps into the fray and offers to buy GM with promises to not only maintain it’s existing workforce (but not hire new workers, letting attrition take hold over time to reduce labour costs in the US), but also offers the prosepct of GM cars manufactured in the US getting a free pass into the Chinese domestic market tariff (and other state imposed burdens) free. However, they will only buy out GM if the liabilities regarding pensions (which arent particularly shit hot to begin with) and healthcare provision for the previous workforce (which are even less shit hot) are taken over by the government.
As a result of the Chinese offer, a number of other large US companies join the fray asking for a plan to offload health and pension liabilities onto the State in return for a guarentee of a large continuing domestic presence in the US economy.
Obama conveniently bites the bullet, not only instituting a solid universal healthcare plan but also piledriving that third rail of American politics – Social Security. Business gets behind both policies for the first time in history (because they no longer have the balance sheet luxury of letting their ideology overrule their corporate self interest), the liberal media goes utterly orgasmic, most Republicans dare not stand in the way and Adams vision of social democracy comes to fruition in the US – not because of some outbreak of political self awareness and deeper understanding of social cost benefit, but simply because of necessity.
Or am I dreaming here?
I can’t say I can believe it will go down exactly as you suggest, but I think a watershed is certainly on the horizon
Good argument for a bill of rights:
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/12/12/unhelpful/
If I was Tanner watching that interview I’d be displeasd with Kerry Th most if anyting swingers would get from that interview is Deficits ar bad , Turnbull is against Deficits and Deficits ar only ar last resort , and only if to prevent a recession Thats partly th Libs argument
Whereas Labor (rightly) wants to strike well before that , and Taner has said this ‘talk’ by MSN is unhelpful to consumer confidense …and it is not , confidense is in trouble
Possum and Adam
You both may be right but there is a very large underclass in the USA, and a very leaky boarder. The system only works because the underclass gets jack sit. No health care, no unemployment and no pension. It’s going to be one monumental change.
237 Possum
…apart from the fact that you’ve made it seem simple.
China is the wildcard, but even without them it could come to pass.
Interesting times.
I dozed through geography a long time ago, but I think a watershed is by definition is on the horizon.
Poss
Two considerations
1. Is GM essential to the military/industry alliance-pivot point and all that
2.What is GM’s worth to china? ie what does china stand to gain
Good point.
It’s obviously unprofitable.
If GM dies there’ll be quite a gap to fill. China already has car companies working to plug that.
What nation is currently the biggest in the world without a serious car industry?
Chapter 11 I think allows tthose workers liabilitys to be renotiated as well as all those Dealer contracts , but it won’t giv GM etc from Senate th 25 billion retooling bailout or th 15 billion cash flow bailout…but Chinese may
Tom
China has the largest
Britain aint got diddly squat
smartass
Quality is obviously an issue
I thought they still made cars in Britain.
I think its reached the stage of re-assembly as opposed from the ground up
could be wrong though and am happy to be corrected
who is the biggest nation without an auto Industry?
Fredn went:
The working poor issue is probably the trickiest bit in a transition from the current US system to something more social democratic and I dont envy economic policy makers trying to come to terms with that. On the leaky border issue, I wouldnt be surprised in the least if the US got serious about their porous southern border.
Gus went:
GM doesnt seem to do a great deal these days on the military front. They dont do serious hardware, they certainly dont do high tech anything much at all. Some Chinese company approached GM a few weeks ago from all accounts, so they’re interested. The design capability that could then be deployed internationally from GM assets, the brand name for US and western markets (not to mention the Chinese middle class) and the sheer technology and productivity transfer that would be pushed into Chinese domestic plants from a purchase of GM would make it appetizing for Chinese companies.
Add to that the GM retail outlets that a Chinese company could then use for market penetration in the US and it makes a lot of sense.
India have one?
Agree. A US brand is essential for them to make inroads.
An enormous one – the Tata Group
Oh yes they do
http://media.gm.com/servlet/GatewayServlet?target=http://image.emerald.gm.com/gmnews/viewmonthlyreleasedetail.do?domain=74&docid=50945
Also, Popular Science magazine has given GM, Carnegie Mellon University and its Tartan Racing Team a “100 Best Innovations of the Year” award for the self-driving robotic Chevrolet Tahoe that won the DARPA Urban Challenge.
“The U.S. auto industry is a major investor in R&D and a vital part of our country’s science and technology base,
see Point 1 of my earlier post
I agree that all these events may lead to the US finally having to confront the issue of retirement benefits and healthcare. Nobody will take over GM with that bill hanging over their heads. But it remains doubtful if anyone will take them over without it either. Their promised Volt electric car is still two years away (their promised timing) so who will carry their huge losses on current model lineup for that time? Honda and Toyota are both promising to have expanded hybrid lineups including so called “plug in” hybrids by 2010.
There are car plants in the UK, they just aren’t owned by UK companies – Vauxhall (GM), Ford, Honda as well.
Building hybrids doesnt quite get you into the protected military company species club anymore Gus. Who doesnt R&D and build hybrid test beds these days?
Yes, and they own Jaguar.
How’s that for irony.
Sorry Poss
but some how I think that GM is intrinsic to who the US is.
DETROIT – From the first electric starter to the crash test dummies that have helped develop life-saving safety features, General Motors’ research and development accomplishments are well known. Now, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers has named GM first among automotive companies in its IEEE Spectrum’s Patent Scorecard.
(from article previously quoted)
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/patentsurvey2008
“Or am I dreaming here?”
In first para of scenario , Senate knocks back bailout because of GM’s workers long term workers etc libilities
Then in last para , because Chinese hav made an offer , this same Senate is going to effectively approve taking over those GM’s workers long term workers etc libilities (guess only 42 billion)
plus this same Senate is to provide th required 25 billion retooling bailout and th 15 billion cash flow bailout monies REckon they’d be better off dooing this 25 + 15 step with conditions to change managment , car capacity etc
are they simply reassembly plants/dumb factories or true ground up enterprises
Gusface
I don’t wish to “write off” GM because they still have a lot of capability, but I think the IEEE scoreboard is a reflection of history more than current reality. I don’t think GM would be regarded as any sort of technical or innovation leader in the auot industry now. They put way too much money into developing ranges of SUVs in recent years, which are really pretty low-tech machines. Would anyone buy a GM car here or in the US because they thought they were better engineered than a Toyota, Honda or Audi? They do underpin the US (mechanical) engineering industry, but that isn’t where the US has been strong for a long time.
who makes the Hummer?
Gus 263 – All of those are substantial enterprises – developing the models and building them. Strictly speaking though, hardly any plants of any companies build entire vehicles these days. So an engine plant in Opel (Germany) may supply carrs built in Vauxhall (UK).
GM I think
I think Hummers are built by a GM subsidiary which they are now trying to sell off.
Soc
India
China
japan
Korea
Russia
germany
USA
sorry
forgot
france
Italy
UMMM
Isnt the Hummer part of the US military hardware anyway?
Ummmm
Soc that was from 2008,so munless you are a time traveller, thats pretty current to me
BTW
the miltary/aero index top score was 773
GMs score was 883
need I say more
Yep, and it’s an expensive pig of a thing that the Marines and the army would probably quite happily phase out at the first opportunity. You don’t buy a Hummer, you buy an excuse to keep a mechanic on retainer.
Ron, If I could understand a word you wrote I’d gladly reply.
Gus
I presume your point in 269 is that all those countries have car industries? In a way though, that illustrates the other point – making cars alone doesn’t make you a “high-tech” manufacturing economy any more. Honda make cars in Brazil and Thailand and BMW make 3 series models in South Africa. Here is another list:
Luxembourg
Norway
Iceland (till recently)
Switzerland
It is a list based on highest per-capita income. None of them make cars.
The real issue here and in the US over the auto industry is jobs – its how a lot of peopel survive. But it doesn’t make many countries rich, unless you are good enough to make cars to German or Japanese standards. The only people who do that are the Germans and Japanese!
now now poss
just pointing out on your 2 criteria how flawed your original proposal is
Enemy Marsupial
in my #262 reply….ar you dreamong , I think so
Gus
I shoudl point out that I am in favour of bailing out GM in the US (not here if the US folds). However it is in serious trouble and not that competitive. Nobody should be niaive enough to think that a long term solution will not involve profound restructuring adn more cash to develop new technology. Toyota and Honda have been working on hybrids for almost ten years. GM will take time to bridge that gap if they survive.
Soc
a Home grown “ground up” auto industry gives you the base to make military hardware
as regrads “hi tech” I defer to the IEEE
do you have a counter source to them perchance ?
Actualy I tink th Senate will , after ‘a negotiated deal’ , capitulate ….and so they should (if they forse those incompetent CEO’s etc mangament out , and change cpacitys , dealer network blah blah all as conditions of tax payers 15 + 25 bill twin reasons bailouts
The Down is only down 190, that’s now considered perfectly normal!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI
Gus – can you remember the Hummer episode with the QLD correctional services mob? They bought these Hummers to patrol the perimeters of the gaols but couldnt afford the maintenance – so the whole lot ended up stashed in a dodgy warehouse where the only activity they undertook was generating rust.
GM are a good company burdened by bad history, that has some of the worlds best design teams within their structure (including the Australian team that essentially designed the Zeta platform) – but they arent particularly special when it comes technology development.
All the patents in the world dont mean much if you cant bring that technology to market in a profitable way.
Why not just nationalise GM. Have some guts, Congress.
Buy it then build hybrids and everyone’s happy.
The issue of whether or not to bail out companies always comes down to two things for me.
One one hand you have the idiot executives who make poor decisions for a number of years and create unsustainable and untenable companies. They deserve everything they get when the company collapses. On the other hand you have the thousands of workers who haven’t done anything wrong and don’t deserve to lose their jobs.
That’s why I think a bail out should be in the form of the government taking a significant stake in the operations of the business allowing them to do things the way they want too. They can sell their share later if they want but simply throwing money at something that’s just been shown to fail is ridiculous.
Possum, they’ve made a lot of bad decisions relatively recently as well.
Holden had a working Australian designed and built hybrid ready to roll in 2000 but decided it wasn’t going to be profitable, gave it the flick and continued to build 4L sedans, station-wagons, utes and 4WD’s.
Gus
I just checked that IEEE scoreboard and it ranks companies on number of US patents! So no wonder US auto companies come out on top in those rankings. If it included Japanese or European patents I dare say that you might get a different winner. Toyota is the largest car manufacturer in the world and they have more employees and engineers than GM. I don’t really know what such rankings are worth anyway. The bottom line is Toyota are killing GM in the market. If it weren’t for government fleet buys propping up large sedan sales both here and in the US for years, the trend would be even more marked.
Oz
It may not be a bad option in the end. Congress would have to come up with at least $40 billion to buy GM just to cover the retirement obligations, plus whatever it costs to develop new models.
You were right about the GMH hybrid commodore too – I recall Democrats Lyn allison was shwn it and offered to buy one as her work car but was told she couldn’t and then annoyedly got a Prius.
Oz – that’s nothin’!!
Holden could have had the LS7 in their SS Commodores and HSV’s for years!
As they say, if you can’t think of a reason why you need 500hp – you just aren’t giving the problem your full attention
sacre bleu
I will write straight away and suggest Bangladesh next time
Ummmm
Soc selective quoting does you a disservice
what does IEEE stand for btw
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24793135-31037,00.html
Except what I said would have actually aided the company to survive not help it rush to its death =P.
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
An electricians club. Since we all know electrical engineers aren’t real engineers.
And Toyota dont get generous tax breaks and subsidies from the japanese government
Realworld stuff please people
“Why not just nationalise GM. Have some guts, Congress.”
No , govt is not good running such business’s Agree about th guts bit but , just put in th 40 billion with list of conditions (sacking top boys as starters) , and Board reps representing th 40 billion tax payers money
Just watch them show no guts but capitulate but not with clever netotiating for th 40 billion Why does IEEEE come into this
Toyota sells more cars in Australia now than both Ford and Holden combined.
Whereas the private sector is…? Are we talking GM being bankrupt or something else?
I used to be a member, a long, long time ago
I’ll send that one to NASA
But think of the Bogans Oz!
That was probably plastered all over the walls at Holden HQ for motivation.
Gus IEEE was your link – I read what it stood for in 261 myself. I am an engineer by profession myself so thats not exactly news.
I don’t see what is “selective quoting” in pointing out the basis of your own argument in 261.
I don’t understand why you seem so determined to prove that GM are technical leaders? I don’t agree with it, but why does it matter to you so much? I’m not saying they are hopeless but I think they clearly went in the wrong technical direction for some years and that has hurt them. However I think the loss of employment alone is enough justification to help (the workers).
possum had basically said GM was not in the hi tech club
I vehemently disagreed and quoted the IEEE 2008 list of patents and adjusted scorecard
GM shat on the rest of the world in adjusted terms
GM 883
Lockheed 773
The EU package contains support for motor industries, funnily enough. No detail though.
Adjusted for what?
Didn’t someone point out it was American patents? I wonder who wins in Japanese patents?
“Whereas the private sector is…? Are we talking GM being bankrupt or something else?”
As gusface said ‘Realworld stuff please people’ Private sector ar best at running competivie private enterprise business’s of this size , but poor mannagement sends any private sector business down , and it has with US Auto (both in product aged plant marketng etc) , plus foolish past Govt pork barrelling
If you tink US Govt could Nationalise and run GM successfuly , then hav a look at history
Obviously you’ve never done business with Japan Inc
Gus
The IEEE is just one measure. Lots of industries develop such measures as a means of self promtion. Here is a German link that proudly shoes that in 2005 they issued more automotive patents than Japan or the USA. That doesn’t mean they are the best either. The point is just to show that its not as simple as finding some index and saying “voila – the argument is won”.
http://www.cologne-bonn-business.de/index.php?id=36&L=1
The trouble with fishing on the internet for data on questions like this is that it tends to favour the english language countries. So companies like GM score better. But that doesn’t mean they are the leaders.
Irrespective of patents as thats not decisive , ar you on board ..agree to bailout with conditions incl change mangement , Board Reps etc , or against it
Ron
I think the US should bailout GM, on strict conditions. The overal loss of jobs would be huge if they go down, though not 3 million. But there needs to eb a time limit: if not profitable in say 3 years then they should close.
{The trouble with fishing on the internet for data on questions like this is that it tends to favour the english language countries.}
Soc
all my Links are from the orgs themselves
So is the IEEE the Peak body for Hi Tech or not?
The EU has agreed to 20% emissions cut by 2020. Dunno what that means for Poznan.
Ron, anyone could run it more successfully than the status quo.
Well Socrates , you and I ar saying same thing I do not understand reticence in Senate , or indeed here by some….ramifications otherwise ar massive for US , and equally bad s flow on here in ‘oz’
But what about AvtoVAZ! That Russian private-state joint venture even came in a Peter Brock version in Oz with the Lada Niva
(tongue firmly in cheek there even though that’s all true enough)
Maybe that’s GM’s problem – AvtoVAZ went into patnership with GM over the Lada to produce the Chevy Niva
http://www.gm-avtovaz.ru/new_en/inside.php?page=contents/cars/featuresN
Aardvark of a car by any yardtick.
Gus – there is no such thing as a “peak body for high-tech”. IEEE is one of several bodies that represent people who work in those industries.
You still haven’t answered my other questions – why are you so desperate to prove GM are technical leaders? I don’t think thats true. But why does it matter to you so much?
For the record I live in Adelaiddie so have nothign to gain by seeing GMH go down. I don’twant it to happen. But I see no point in kidding myself about the reality they face.
Night Ron.
OZ , thats true….however some including Govt run only would still end up running it at a loss As Socrates and I agrre , one would only hand over th money in exchange for strict conditions including firing curent (failed as you rightly say) management
Enemy Marsupial , ar you disagreeng my view that th US government itself would be unsuccessful trying to running GM etc successfully , now that indeed would be marsupial dreaming
Nite Socrates
No reason soc,other than the fact that GM aint the dinosaur many are painting it as.
Also re the IEEE I know of no similair body,just wondering if there was a comparable worldwide organisation of leading electricians and eletrical engineers ,affiliated to NASA among other august bodies, that existed.
So, what ought to be done for the managers/owners of an industry that promoted the civilian use of the SUV gas guzzlers, including Hummers, when anthropogenic climate change was already having measurable impacts?
Total lack of perspective. Total lack of any sense of global responsibility. Total greed.
Now that they are quite justifiably going down the tubes of history, they do what these ratbags normally do – point at workers jobs and start screaming about the need to protect the livelihood of workers. Add ‘total hypocrites’ to the litany.
btw
poss started this
I’m simply saying GM wont be sold to China and defending my rationale.
It used to be called debating
Blame me Gus!
Congratulations to Katherine Murphy for a mature, sensible, contribution to what ought long ago to have been a considerable debate about our war in Afghanistan. I have been waiting for some time for this to happen and am glad the MSM is catching up with reality in Afghanistan. The link is:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-forgotten-war-20081212-6xiz.html?page=3
If, as looks increasingly likely, the exit strategy cannot mean a military ‘victory’ then it must mean a political settlement.
Why should Australian soldiers keep dying in a war that can neither be won nor lost militarily? If there cannot be a military solution, what is an appropriate diplomatic solution? When will the Rudd Government take steps to help initiate the diplomatic dialogue that this will necessarily involve? If the Rudd Government is waiting for something to change before Australia does something different from what Australia is doing now, what exactly is Australia waiting for?
Waiting for waiting’s sake just adds senselessly to the death toll.
Further to Tracey Murphy’s article: In any overseas military war Australians are simultaneously fighting against something and for something. The Howard Government, followed by the Rudd Government, have found it difficult to talk publicly about what is we are fighting for.
I am providing a link for those interesed in a description of what we are fighting for in Afghanistan. I will not say that is an accurate description. I will say it is the sort of description that should make the Australian Government profoundly concerned to check exactly what it is we are fighting for.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2008/aug/16/drugstrade.afghanistan
For whomever was following the MN recount besides myself
Seems that the WH will use some of the money approved in October after all, the only question is how soon ….. (source TheHill.com which is the website for the House and the Senate)
Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.), the lead Republican negotiator on a last-minute effort to bail out U.S. automakers, said a deal might have been possible Friday had the White House not intervened.
Corker said that Ron Gettelfinger, the president of the United Auto Workers (UAW), has halted discussions after receiving indication from White House officials that they will use funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to save U.S. automakers.
]
[
Corker said he had put a call in to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and would urge Paulson to attach to the relief at least two of the conditions Democrats and Republicans had agreed to Thursday.
Corker declined to say that Republicans had missed an opportunity by not yielding on autoworkers' wages, the issue that scuttled the bailout package. He said many Democrats also wanted to see the industry required to reduce its debt, such as through equity swaps with bondholders and/or equity contributions to Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Associations.
White House officials sought to reassure the financial markets shortly before they were scheduled to open Friday.
“[G]iven the current weakened state of the U.S. economy, we will consider other options if necessary — including use of the TARP program — to prevent a collapse of troubled automakers,” said White House spokeswoman Dana Perino in a statement issued minutes before markets opened.
Corker said that after Gettelfinger received indication that federal aid was coming, he did not see a need to continue negotiations.
]
You have to wonder what the US automakers are doing with all those patents because they don’t appear to be showing up in their product
The biggest selling vehicles in auto history, by a huge margin, aren’t the VW Beetle or Toyota Corolla, or the Mini, but the Ford F-series utes and the GM equivalent. Thumping big low-tech V8-V10 iron engines shoehorned into poorly welded, top heavy bodies sitting on leaf spring suspensions little advanced on that of the covered wagons that crossed the prairies, and stopped, eventually, by tiny drum brakes. Suicide on wheels. If they don’t kill you directly, the sheer volume of exhaust emissions will, along with the rest of the planet.
Forget pension and medical plans or the “high” wages paid to their employees, the reason GM, Ford and Chrysler are facing extinction is that they build crap.
And yes, I’m biased. The closest I’ve ever come to dying was behind the wheel of the 1957 Chevy I briefly owned as a teenager. Wish I still had it though, they’re worth big bickies these days
Agrees with Mayo.
Let the dinosaurs die, so that the mammals can inherit the earth.
“Forget pension and medical plans or the “high” wages paid to their employees, the reason GM, Ford and Chrysler are facing extinction is that they build crap.”
It’s a bit of both, I wold have thought.
But sure, it’s time for them all to go.
I’ve got Cossie to lead the Libs to the next election. A “Liberal insider” said this:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24789900-5006301,00.html
Diogenes, I was thinking of calling Peter Costello and asking him to stay myself. I love destabilization in the Liberal Party.
From the Saturday print edition of the Canberra Times, we’ve another pollie (also a Lib) who has been caught out plagarizing ….. Apologies to all but I can NOT find a URL for this so will briefly summarize. The story isn’t anywhere on their internet site. (Maybe if Frank reads this post in WA he can comment if there are stories appearing locally out there about this).
Mal Washer took his wife along on a $33,000 taxpayer funded overseas study trip for 4 weeks this year in March and April. According to part of the 2 page article, “Text amounting to some nine pages of Dr. Washer’s 30 page report to Special Minister of State John Faulkner appears to have been cut and pasted without alteration or attribution from tourist information and other websites.”
Neither am I convinced that Newspoll does not reflect what has happened in the preceding parliamentary week. While the average person does not watch or listen to parliament directly, the feel for the major events is quickly transferred to the wider community.
Another take on the auto bailout
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-l-borosage/herbert-hoover-time_b_150537.html
Just one minor point about patents, it’s not the number of patents that may be granted by a particular country, but the inventiveness of those patents. Obviously GMH and Ford had been stuck in the past for too long. Yep, let them fold I say.
Will Cossie leads the Liberals? I’ll be rubbing in to a few of the PB’ers if he does!
Depends what your definition of “lead” is Centre.
With reference to Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group, why does the overall change in voting intention, as polled over time, not correlate more closely with stated the male and female breakdowns?
For example, the figures for the Greens show that both male and female support has gone up by 4% since the election, yet the overall increase is only 2.2%. There are similar apparent anomalies with the other parties results.
Poss
Final comment re the auto industry
Does the USA divest itself of a key cog in the military/industrial complex.
Does it also allow the intellectual capital to be offloaded,some of which is definitely “hi-tech”
That should read “If Cossie leads the Liberals?”
“lead” means to certain defeat at the next election
Fargo, it’s probably just a rounding anomaly seeing it is an aggregate of four quarterly polls. Small changes in smaller numbers show a bigger percentage change than small changes in bigger figures.
Think of it this way, a one cent change in a five cent share has a huge percentage change compared to a one cent change in a share worth $100.
Looks like there is more to the story in the Victorian police shooting of the 15 year old. It has all the hallmarks of a “suicide by cop” where the “victim” forces the police to shoot him in an act of suicide. He didn’t have a mental health problem but he was mixed up in a neo-fascist anti-immigration group.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24792760-601,00.html
Huh?
“mixed up” as in “involved with”
Here’s a great interview with NNT describing his book “Black Swans” which predicted the GFC. It’s a fantastic book but this 20 minute interview gives you the gist of it. Basically, financial analysts are thick. There’s a little more to it but that sums it up.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9713
Hugh Jackman is hosting the Oscars.
Diog, you are right this time about “there is more to the story in the Victorian police shooting of the 15 year old”.
I posted at #136 “Now, would it be too insensitive to say good riddance? Yes, it would, my apology. No, it wouldn’t”. The Age is reporting that:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/two-knives-three-alarmed-police-officers-and-a-scared-little-boy-lies-dead-in-seconds-20081212-6xnm.html?page=-1
There is nothing “normal” when a case like this happened. There are always many sides and shades to the story.
The only police who should carry guns in normal circumstances are Special Operations Group type units and gun crime units. In Victoria this means taking on the Police Association on an issue where they would be very stubborn.
I love this phrase “gone to money heaven”.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Madoff-alleged-50-billion-rb-13819411.html
The belief by rusted-on Liberals that Costello can take the party to victory is as deluded as thinking Rudd is a one-term government.
Costello might have the power to bring the rusted-on Liberals back in to the fold, which at a preferred PM of 66-19, some rusted-on Liberals currently support Rudd, but he definately will not be able to attract the swing voters who have flocked to Labor in droves.
bob
They won’t win with Cossie but they will be thrashed by less (IMHO).
Those kneegerkers calling for Muslims to be nuked following the Mumbai attack might find this revealing:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175013/arundhati_roy_the_monster_in_the_mirror
There is no shortage of victims, of varying degrees of innocents or guilt, in the unholy religious and political mess that is the Subcontinent
Those kneegerkers calling for Muslims to be nuked following the Mumbai attack might find this revealing:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175013/arundhati_roy_the_monster_in_the_mirror
There is no shortage of victims, of varying degrees of innocents or guilt, in the unholy religious and political mess that is the Subcontinent
Oops!
I actually had a little on Costello to take over the leadership for the next election when Brenda was leader. The main reason being that if Cossie was serious about leaving politics he would have given a firm comittment to do so and when. I thought that he would prefer to take the leadership from a position of strength rather than a position of weakness straight after the election.
I really don’t know what Cossie is thinking. Maybe he thinks leading the party after Labor’s second term (therefore leading the party after the 2010 election) would give him his best chance of becoming PM. Either way, he is most certainly too weak to ever be Australia’s PM.
The best part of all this is that the Liberals, before they ever win government again, are going to regret so much that Howard did not quit on his 10th anniversary that they may feel anger towards him.
Just watched the Turnbull interview from last night (which I missed). Oh my God!
The transcript is beautiful. What a pity there’s no QT this week!
and the first up response by Kerry shows how Turnbull is now automatically pegged:
Coleman is feeling the heat
….
Oh geez, the interview is just the gift that keeps on giving:
Hang on?? So you supported and voted for a policy that you don’t think will work????
Grog @ 350,
Doesn’t matter what the topic, Rudd doesn’t need QT
Rainmaker again!
If it works he can’t lose because he supported it. If it doesn’t work (and he hasn’t defined what that means) then he gets to say “Well we wanted tax cuts all along”.
Howard did it better than Mal T.
Everything Howard said could be taken however it suited the situation.
Grog, no, this is even better:
MALCOLM TURNBULL: So far, we haven’t seen Mr Rudd take any unpopular decisions. And he’s made a number of decisions …
KERRY O’BRIEN: But can you think of one unpopular decision he should have taken that he hasn’t?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, he’s certainly – well, I’ll give you the very good example: he certainly shouldn’t have gone for an unlimited deposit guarantee. I mean that, in itself, has created enormous …
KERRY O’BRIEN: No, I’m talking on the spending side. Your saying every dollar spent should be very carefully spent. So, is there a tough decision involving spending that he should’ve taken that he hasn’t?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, we’ll – Kerry, we’ll see. We’ll see how this stimulus works out.
KERRY O’BRIEN: So you don’t know of one now? You can’t nominate one.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Kerry, I’m not going – I’m not nominating one.
I really don’t know which interview WB watched, but that’s a shocker from Turnbull.
When you find yourself in a hole – stop digging!!
He really has no idea about policy and not surprisingly then has no idea about how to implement it.
To put it another way – he hasn’t worked out that politics is a stepping stone to governance.
He doesn’t even have the makings of a minister; opposition leader is way past his limits.
While there’s a fair bit of bagging of the US going on around here lately, Turnbull wouldn’t last 5 minutes against a bunch of American commentators, and sure they’ve got a bigger pool to draw from, but leadership is leadership.
WA must have seen a different version of 7.30 Report. I disagree with William too.
Our neighbour who still thinks Howard is terrific has just told us that he thought Turnbull was ‘b…. terrible on telly last night and wants Howard back’. No need for us to say anything really but our grins must have been obvious.
Unless Malcolm is allowed to rabbit on alone (as on rw radio) he seems to lose track when confronted and ends up sounding a bit silly.
Ruddie wasn’t brilliant the night before. He he looked a bit tired but he certainly didn’t look foolish.
The Liberals are revolting according to today’s paper.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24792666-5006786,00.html
You can read Tuckey’s letter here:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/coalition_partyroom_should_introduce_secret_ballots/
A point of interest with the whole Nationalise the automotive industry in the United States. In Germany, the State of Lower Saxony owns 20.2 percent of Volkswagen still. Quite interesting history they have.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/sep2008/volk-s20.shtml
steve @ 359:
“The Liberals are revolting according to today’s paper.”
Saying The Liberals refers to them as a group. I’d hardly say the party MPs are revolting, just a few of them, and mainly towards Barnaby/Nationals, not Turnbull.
Why is Cossie even in the consideration for the future is beyond me. In the last episode of the Coward Years last Monday, Cossie looked like a coward, a loser and a tragic figure. The punters know that. Move on pls, focus on the younger guns.
BH he’d had a busy day, off the plane from Indonesia then to Bendigo then did 7.30 Report.
Seems like the Bendigo folk like Kevie
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/12/2445162.htm?site=centralvic
But Finns – the younger mob have also worshipped at the shrines of either Howard or Costello.
Just listen to them. The only thing they really excel in is personal denigration of Govt. Ministers. The mantra is that the Govt ARE incompetent fools whereas the voters thought in 2007 that the Coalition were. Shows how much more intelligent the voters are.
Apart from Hunt there is hardly a decent, positive thought among them and he often spouts off without thinking first.
During the few times that I have been to QT this year I have been embarrassed at the performances of Pyne, Ciobo & Co. who sit on the end of the opposition bench. They act like schoolboys during the whole session.
My grandson and his mates are more together than that mob.
T
I forgot that Vera – events move so quickly nowdays that even his trip to Bali seems ages ago. Doesn’t that Bendigo crowd cheer the spirit up.
I hope he takes a well earned break over Christmas. He deserves it.
Heard ABC TV News here last night say that Rudd was copying Obama’s plans for infrastructure building. What!! I said – Obama, I felt, put Rudd’s ideas into his campaign but now we are supposed to believe that Rudd had no infrastructure plans before yesterday. I think the ABC is relying on juniors to write their damn news leads. If seniors are writing that stuff then our 8c+ a day is well and truly wasted.
Have just finished a book called “The Race” by RN Patterson. Was written in 2007 about US republican race for nomination. A character in it was a deadset ringer for a certain well known media magnate with connections to a ‘fair and balanced’ tv outlet. From watching the recent election bunfight over there it seems that the author had some terrific insider information.
http://news.smh.com.au/national/rudd-savages-struggling-turnbull-on-ir-20081213-6xts.html
Quite a savage article from the Herald.
Oz:
“There was only limited reaction from the opposition on Friday when the government announced it would spend $4.7 billion on infrastructure to stave off the effects of the global financial crisis, a sign many frontbenchers were busier dealing with internal politics than holding the government to account.
Mr Turnbull heads into the break with woeful polls hanging over him and a damaged deputy leader, Julie Bishop, dragging him down.”
That is the really damaging bit. Australians turn off when a party becomes more preoccupied with itself than current issues.
Coalition in opposition for another 13 years.
It is unkind to refer to any Liberal Party members as revolting – with the possible exception of Christopher Pyne.
It turns out that an Indian Businessmen’s dinner three days before the arrest of the Illinois governor may be the key to the debacle.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081213/ap_on_re_us/illinois_governor_jackson
OT -
Any bets on how long it will take before this technology turns up in Oz? The coppers would love it
….
Re 269,
No, Tony Abbot and Mr. Old Age himself, Ruddock, fit the bill on this one as well
William, am I just unlucky today or have there been words within the quoted text from my news snippets that are flagging your moderation? I’ve had 3 today hit the moderation queue, albeit temporarily
When you have something in the mod queue, if it is a bad word, is that bad word highlighted or something? Or is it up to you to guess why it is there?
Cheers
If Rudd is extremely popular in a place like Bendigo then the Liberals are screwed, yes it is a ALP seat but Bendigo is the type of place that is good at giving it too Government but if Rudd’s populary is holding then Rudd can be very pleased indeed.
Malcolm Turnbull seems to be struggling with the whole notice off what to do with the budget, Malcolm needs to work out is he willing to support a one or two years of deficits or is he against.
It should be very straightforward for someone who comes from a financial background.
Turnbull thinks the budget is a profit and loss statement!
367 Oz – yes a pretty tough Headline:
Rudd savages stuggling Turnbull.
When they start using adjectives like that, it’s not good. (and also pretty bad journalism – but then sub editors seem to operate under different rules…)
Profit – Turnbull’s vaingloriousness
Loss – Turnbull’s PPM
Does he really have financial background?
I mean if I was a lawyer in the mining sector does it mean I’d have any special insight into getting minerals out of the earth?
Is his financial mojo all a bit of a myth, because it seems at this stage he’s about as credible as Costello (no – not the Glen-world view – the Treasury-world view, and if you’re a non-neoclassical, even that’s worth diddly too)?
#371 –
WB is well known for, let put mildly, “i want to see you suffer” streak.
I just did the face to face Morgan Poll.
The political questions were as you wold expect, they weren’t polling for anything special there.
Though they did ask “right track / wrong track” questions that Morgan seems to love these days.
378 Finnigans,
That is a bit unfair imho …. sticking up for William here. With one singular exception and that was dealt with offlist [ That one time, we've agreed to disagree and I dropped it there, "off list and behind closed doors". ], since I’ve been on PB (about 6 to 9 months prior to the Federal Election), William has been well and truely fair with me. Even when I exceeded the bounds of acceptability about a month prior to the election in October 07, I deserved it then. That time the general topic was religion and we all know well and truely what kind of troubles religious issues can get us into on PB
…..
#365 – BH
At their peril, dear boy, at their own peril.
Anyway, let’s give some more joy to the Fibs with this scenario:
1. Mr. Lu Kewen to serve out this term
Bloody hell, he even has his own website: http://www.lukewen.com/
2. Mr. Lu will win in 2010 and serve out the full term
3. Mr. Lu will also run in 2013 and proclaim that he will pass the baton on to Julia Baby sometime in 2014/2015.
4. Julia Baby will run in 2016 and win
5. Julia Baby will also run in 2019 and win
6. Julia Baby will also run in 2022 and proclaim that she will pass the baton on to ????? sometime in 2023/2024.
Cricket anyone?
Finns
You rightly get slapped by William on a frequent basis for egregious misbehaviour which is only to be expected from a self-proclaimed Marxist revolutionary.
It’s interesting to speculate on 2009 and beyond.
While it would be nice to think that the Rudd Reich may extend for a thousand years, the reality is that next year will likely be the start of the decline in Rudd’s personal political capital. With unemployment and inflation likely to be higher next year, we have two of the three ingredients that traditionally lead to an election loss in place. (The other being higher interst rates). These combined with possible negative equity for home owning battlers, then it is not difficult to envisage a disgruntled Australian electorate.
Of course the Libs have been shooting themselves and their party down for some time with their poor tactics, selfish indulgences and lack of policy development. However, as we saw earlier this year in WA, this is not necessarily an impediment to being elected to Govern.
The good thing is that Rudd and the government are not kidding themselves about the job ahead. I wish them well but know in my bones that Labor’s huge ascendancy of the present will not be there at the end of 2009 and we will likely be looking at a tight election scenario in 2010.
ROTFL
….
When you say “face-to-face” did they come to your place?
The moderation filters are like the guided missile defence system on Magrathea – they take the occasional pot-shot to relieve the monotony. I have no idea why it picked on any of the comments that were put in the queue today.
yes, Diog, you are right again. Blooming hell, twice in a day.
As an honourary member of the FARC revolutionary Party of the Knowledge Tree Branch of Machu Picchu, WB often told me to go and get FARC.
I agree unemployment will be higher but why inflation? To me that makes no sense at all given prices going down.
Mugabe is always good for a laugh. It would be hilarious if people weren’t dying.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7780728.stm
This article suggest greece is a ready to go totally Feral
maybe ‘73 all over again
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/13/athens-greece-riots
“How police shooting of a teenage boy rallied the ‘€700 generation’”
384 Greensborough Growler I don’t agree with that assessment. While Rudd is seen as doing everything he can to alleviate unemployment he will be given credit for his efforts. Knowing Rudd he will be flat out all next year doing just that.
You seem to think people will blame this government for all of the world’s economic ills. I don’t buy it.
Julia wont be PM for the same reason Tanner isnt Treasurer…the ALP would be stupid to nominate a leader from the Left faction…unless they want to lose an election…Gillard is not a future leader of the ALP the most likely candidate to take over after Rudd is Fitzgibbon…Gillard wouldnt win an election even if she faced off Brendan Nelson.
Glen
your on crack for sure
‘ you’re ‘ Gusface
Turnbull thinks a budget is a profit and loss statement!!
Well it is, but as any businessman or women knowns they have to spend money in order to position the business to make money!
Bascially Rudd is position the business called Australia to overcome a global crisis, so the question for Malcolm is what is his business plan!!
Someone ask does Turnbull really have a financial background when he acted in a position of legal, this is a good point but still if you are dealing with the financial sector you should have some idea what is happening.
finance is one part of the economy that is rather straightforward to learn about.
When Julia is compared to Rudd as PPM she falls behind. However, when she is compared to any Liberal, she wins. I think Julia Gillard would make a fine Prime Minister, and a beloved one. That lady is coming on in leaps and bounds and so she should. It gives me great comfort to know that if Rudd fell under a bus we have real depth in the Labor Party, at all levels.
By contrast the Libs and Nats seem like a loose coalition of total losers.
Gillard is a joke and she’s not a leader, just a cold hearted individual who is a closet socialist…no Australian would buy into that Bushfire…she wont lead the ALP because the ALP knows it cant win an election with a left faction leader….
I’m starting to see Julia Gillard has the ability to win an election, she has the ability to make decisions and is known has someone who can get the job done.
She presents well, appears approachable and based on her parlianmently performances appears witty and is clearly very intelligent.
Julia Gillard did very well to maintain her position in Lalor for it is a seat that is more middle class than the west of the west and in many ways was prime Howardland but Gillard was never seriously threatened.
As was quoted Gillard knows how to operate in a mans world, remembering she is in the left faction the fact remains her biggest battles have been with her own faction and she has emerged victories over them.
Julia Gillard is more electable than Lindsay Tanner for while I like Tanner he doesn’t have Gillard’s work history.
Glen!! I know many professional women who hold Gillard in high regard for sure she doesn’t come off as a dear mummy but as a professional women who knows how to operate and how to win an arguement.
Approachable lol are u kidding approachable to a bunch of union bosses yes that’s approachable!
Knowing how to operate in a mans world doesnt mean shes knows how to lead or discount the fact that her socialist ideas or not shared by the majority of Australians….
and you are on crack
whats your point?
Glen!!
Its funny you meantion being appeoachable to Union leaders, that is funny for I know for a fact that Julia Gillard is happy to disagree with Union leaders, they know when it comes to dealing with Julia that she is no push over!!
That if Gillard cant get IR right by giving Unions more power than before and cant get the Education Revolution going because she muffed the Laptop policy and her history with buggering things up (Medicare Gold) she is vastly overated…
Glen lets remember Julia Gillard stared down the Labor for Refugees, that group was made up with mostly fellow members of her own Left faction and yet Gillard was more than able to stick to her guns and won over them! that very issue could have split the ALP but she was able to steer that policy though the ALP!
You criticise Gillard using exaggerated, irrational terms Glen. That is a sure sign of a man who desperately hopes she doesn’t become PM because you know she would be very successful in keeping the Libs right where they are now.
IR! The major business groups are happy with the proposed I.R laws! if the laws are so bad for business then why is Malcolm allowing it too pass the senate
Education! this is mostly a state issue and regardign the Laptops from my understanding the laptops are being rolled out
Medicare Gold!! Yes that was a dogs policy which was invented by the Catholic Health service spokeman whos name escapes me for the moment.
Que Jumpers are coming in by the ship load thanks to Rudd’s laxed laws now thankyou Prime Minister!
Gillard ruined Labor in 2004 with Medicare Gold.
Gillard stuffed up the Laptop Policy which is a joke being such an underfunded policy.
Gillard is an extremist by giving the Unions more power in Labours Fair Work Australia for Unions Bill.
Gillard is loved by the media because shes a woman.
Ahh reading that post made me twitch. So much rubbish but I’ll let someone who can be bothered deal with it.
“runined”
“stuffed”
“extremist”
Glen, what are they putting in your twisties down there at HQ!
Que Jumpers are coming in by the ship load thanks to Rudd’s laxed laws now thankyou Prime Minister!
Glen!! Australia will forver remain an attractive target for people who want a better life after all we are the best country in the world!! the numbers are still below that of 2000-01
Gillard ruined Labor in 2004 with Medicare Gold.
This policy was a dog’s policy but lets remember Mark Latham was a dud leader and the guy from the Catholic Health service should stick to running his health services rather than try and invent national health policy
Gillard stuffed up the Laptop Policy which is a joke being such an underfunded policy.
This policy is being rolled out, I don’t see the problem.
Gillard is an extremist by giving the Unions more power in Labours Fair Work Australia for Unions Bill.
I call on the Liberal Party to walk into the senate and block it if it is so bad, also may I point out that several leading business types alligned with the Liberal Party helped create the policy (Heather Rigout)
Gillard is loved by the media because shes a woman.
Loves the media for she is a pollywaffle.
Exaggeration 1
No, Latham did that.
From page 2 of the Liberal handbook of exaggerated criticisms I believe.
Page 3
Same with Julie Glen? Of course you know this is total BS.
“Heather Rigout”
I’m guessing that was a deliberate misspelling!
There are two jokes in Exhibition St!!
Inner Westie!! No I thought that was how her name was spelt
Inner…Labour just footed the bill for the computers, not for the extra plugs, security. aircons/fans, maintenance and upkeep of the Laptops and so it is going to cost a hell of a lot more than Madam Julia said it would!
WHAT! The government is spending money on computers!
Why couldn’t they waste it on fridge magnets!
It was an ill conceived idea to begin with but it was an election commitment so they will do what they can to achieve it in the best possible way.
So you don’t want the Government to pay for it? You don’t agree with the policy? You can’t have it both ways.
Or on TV advertising selling their “unpopular” IR policy. 40 million sounds about right.
Or on Crosby Textor advertising.
Or on rainmaking machines
Or on silk lined private jets
or on ……
You’re right ltep, kids shouldn’t have the latest technology to help their learning. Give em slates I say.
Gary,
They were good enough in Howard’s day!
Does anyone else remember using an abacus at school?
I have a fair bit of experience of working with the health system therefore I want to address the issue of Medicare Gold, the problem with that policy was not that it in itself was a bad policy but due to the cynically nature in which our Health system is run and funded.
The policy was open to abuse and therefore would have been a complete farce, the blame for this falls at the feets of State Governments and for Glen’s knowledge this include the Liberal Party Government lead by Jeff Kennett and his casemix model.
421 – How about a regional rorts program?
MayFeral@346 and 347 (heh, heh)
Read the link, for which much thanks. Humbling stuff. Am trying to rework my thoughts on Australia’s war in Afghanistan into the framework of that article. Very challenging.
Glen @ 416
Which is why the state governments got a bit shirty about it. They learned that they would be up for lots of extra bickies, and those bickies had to come from somewhere.
424 – I remember the slide rule.
Yeah, me too. No one over 12 allowed on the slide.
430 – Good one Fulvio.
Mayoferal @ 346 & 347, as with Boerwar, I was very impressed with the article and will be sending it off to a number of people. Many thanks.
Hmmm
The, under the conservative government of Karamanlis, the foreign debt of Greece is equivalent to 91% of GDP, unrestrained lending by the banks has hamstrung possible government responses to the Crisis, and a big slab of Greece was burnt to the ground in uncontrolled wildfires. That is probably why the right wingers aren’t in the streets torching the place. They have done a much better job from inside their offices.
Glen wrote, inter alia
Poor old glen, sounding more and more like someone sitting on a large and pointy spike.
Glen @ 408, while your persistence in representing the Tories is certainly to be admired, it’s these strange outbursts that screw up your efforts.
For what it’s worth, I thought Malcolm Turnbull’s interview by Kerry O’Brien was woeful. Both himself indoors and myself said, this man doesn’t have much of a clue about the economy, and even less about being a politician.
Typical Liberal response to Rudd’s infrastructure progam. Oh, they agree with it but don’t believe that it will create the number of jobs the government says it will. Once again agree but disagree.
At least the Infrastructure program is being funded now instead of the Liberal method of promise big ticket infrastructure spending before the election and then make it a non core promise when the funding was due.
Gary Bruce, they clearly have a very cunning plan to shoot themselves in the foot, over and over and over. It reminds me of the joke about the red headed chick who goes to the doctor, saying she hurt all over her body, and demonstrating by poking her shoulder with her finger, and screaming; her knee, screams; her belly, moans and screams; her earlobe, whimpers and cries. The doctor says, “You’re not really a red head, are you?” “No, I’m a blond”. Doctor says, “You’ve got a broken finger.
I don’t know what KR is going to do with himself next time he visits NY.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24790712-953,00.html
Speaking of funding laptops …
Or “pole” watching.
broad band ?
Or stimulus packages …
Youse guys are sick
scorpio started it …
Whaddya want? A stimulous package. When do you want it? Anytime you can deliver it. And, BTW, lay off the s*xual appeal or otherwise of the female members of parliament, or the three legged cat gets it.
Kerist, he’s bad at typing!
Pathetic, Inner Westie, just truly, deeply pathetic. Funny, though.
Behind every cloud, there’s always a silver lining. Lets hope Rudd & Co can take advantage of it.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24792120-953,00.html
yeah, I agree Harry.
Glen
A serious question, did more “queue jumpers” arrive in 2008 or 2007?
I bet you don’t find the answer to comfortable.
Scorpio, I’d have a lot more faith in C&K being able to run childcare better than ABC Learning did. It got to the point in Brisbane a few years ago that children could hardly avoid the clutches of ABC Learning as they took over childcare centres in a mad frenzy. It was reminiscent of the Bond and Skase way of doing business.
William,
I’m surprised you haven’t done a post on Westpoll which is 55-45 for Barnett, but with the main focus on Eric Ripper’s Preferred Premier rating of 12. Guess which bit made the bulk of the story ?
Honeymoon, Frank, honeymoon.
I just watched Turnbull on 7.30 report online. My only comment is that he is not a politician and needs some serious media coaching.
My bet is he will leave politics after the next election and become a commentator, a bit like Hewson. His attention span seems to be about 6 years.
Wow, someone finally let Julie Bishop out of her cage.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/13/2445733.htm
As I said last night – allbull is a DUD !
Oz,
Reading that, it is clear that the Libs have absolutely “NO” idea how to operate in opposition without the benefit of a substantial PS back-up to lead them along the right track & do their thinking for them.
Aren’t they at all embarrassed when stuff like this gets published or comes out in current affairs programs.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/13/2445733.htm
Must admit I’ve been surprised by Turnbull’s inability to perform given his intellect and capabilities. I can only conclude that he can’t cope with being in opposition. He may well make a better PM than an Opposition Leader. Fortunately he won’t get the chance. He doesn’t seem to have any idea of how to run an Opposition. I guess it’s the born to rule attitude. And I suspect Costello would have the same problem.
It seems to be pretty well documented to me.
http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/publications/pdf/Nation_Building_electronic.pdf
Winston, I keep hearing about Turnbull’s apparent intellect from a number of people but I didn’t see it when he was Enviro Minister and I don’t see it now.
Here’s the beginnings of a list of Opposition Leaders who pundits have claimed would have performed better as Prime Minister:
Kim Beazley
Mark Latham (”better” = “taken us on a more thrilling joy ride” in this case)
John Hewson
.
.
.
And here’s the beginnings of a list of Opposition Frontbenchers who I claim would have performed better as Gold Coast opal salesmen:
Christopher Pyne
.
.
.
I wonder how Julie thought they were going to build roads and rail lines without labour.
I agree. That bald headed bloke is a completely useless dimwit. There must be something in the water cooler in the Enviro Min’s office water cooler.
This latest effort by Julie Bishop seems to show she is too lazy to read the documents relevant to her portfolio. It has been perfected as a tactic in the past by the Queensland Opposition who up until tonight proudly wore the title of “the best resourced but laziest opposition in the history of Queensland” but I think this gaffe from Julie bishop as Shadow Treasurer surpasses even their lazy efforts.
And mouse pads. I have three or four Howard government funded mouse pads plus a virgin Workchoices one which you can see scanned here: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/a0/Wcpad.jpg
Albert Ross, I hope I don’t get arrested for viewing that …
The only thing holding the Opposition up is the constant “free kicks” & “leg-ups” they are getting from the MSM.
Eventually the Lib sympathisers within the MSM are going to “have” to get discouraged and decide that they are wasting their time with this lot.
Left on their own to either sink or swim, (which they should have in the first place) my money is on the sink category.
Trying to keep this disjointed, incompetent lot afloat for three years would test out the most dedicated supporter, hence the number of “rusted ons” who seem to be quite happy having moved over to the Rudd camp.
When Turnbull said last night that he didn’t put much faith in the polls, he was just plain lying and hoped that the line of questioning didn’t stay on the subject too long. Unfortunately, Red Kerry obliged him. You could see the relief right across Turnbull’s face.
His problem is though, they aren’t going to go away. The polls next year are going to follow a familiar pattern unless there is some major catastrophe within Labor ranks and I can’t see that happening.
maybe layout all the mouse mats for us to drive on
the rail lines tho does present a problem
The house that Wall Street built. It was nothing but a house of cards in the Disneyland. Wall St has collapsed and it looks like the Main St is also collapsing when the big Three collapsed. This is America and good luck to Mr. Obama.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/business/13fraud.html?em
I heard on SBS News that it was his two sons who dobbed him in to the FBI.
Steve @ 464,
Wouldn’t she come in for a hammering in QT if Parliament was still sitting. These people who continually try and defend her by saying she is being picked on because she is a woman should be ashamed of themselves.
Her opposite number doesn’t seem to have any trouble in that regard. Julia is competent, informed and on top of her job. Julie Bishop could do worse than take a leaf out of Julia’s book and get her finger out and stop feeling sorry for herself.
Turnbull just isn’t a politician. He doesn’t have the cunning and nous of Howard. Howie would never have fallen for all those traps Red Kerry set for Turnbull last night. Turnbull is a much more decent person than Howard but he doesn’t have what it takes. Kerry actually didn’t bother going in for the kill last night, partly because he doesn’t seem to hate Turnbull the way he hated Howard, but also because he doesn’t see Turnbull as much of an adversary. Turnbull ended up defending the indefensible because of all his stupid petty point-scoring against Rudd. He has defeated himself.
The Liberals need a new leader.
I was reading the Tasmanian Hansard one day and was gobsmacked to find that even Tasmania was supposed to get some of the $10 Billion back of an envelope Murray Darling rescue package from Howard.
Finns
For some-one who managed to pull off a $50B swindle, he’s not exactly putting up much of a defence. His lawyer must be tearing his hair out!
A nice little piece here from Jack the Insider. Doesn’t miss with this one.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_losing_battle_for_the_centre/P150/
He’s got me a bit intrigued here. I ‘ll have to look it up.
Dio
allbull is a DUD. Thats D – U – D ….DUD
The good Libs Senator from Tassie is coming in for a bit too. From Bailey’s Mother.
And Jacko adds his bit.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_losing_battle_for_the_centre/P150/
Most of the stuff here is quite funny but wouldn’t pass the muster on PB. Too many “flame wars” and naughty words.
Does anyone else remember using an abacus at school?
Not an abacus, but slide rules and logarithm tables. I still use a slide rule. Almost as fast as a calculator and doesn’t need batteries.
Why couldn’t they waste it on fridge magnets!
Hey, don’t go knocking the fridge magnets. Why I haven’t even taken mine out of the plastic bag, yet the terrorists still haven’t blown up the house. They’re power must be enormous!! IMunHO, they were the best thing Howard did. ;-^)
BTW-does anyone know if Julia still has any of those WC mouse pads going spare? Mine’s getting tatty and they are very expensive items for those of us barely surviving on the pension. <sob> Do I get a new pad, or a can of Doggy-Dins? Decisions, decisions….
Dio is right, the point about Turnbull is that he’s not a good politician – not now, at any rate.
He’s a talented guy in a number of ways, and as he’s still quite an inexperienced politician, it’s possible that he could improve. However his problem is that he’s unlikely to be given the luxury of time in the leadership.
The Illinois Attorney General has applied to the State Supreme Court to have the Governor removed from office.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/us/politics/13illinois.html?_r=1
Diog, you gotta to feel sorry for Obama. what sort of country is he inherited to govern?
A $50B fraud that has been running for about 15 years in broad daylight and supported by a cast of thousands.
I just hope his inauguration in Jan will not be a lavish and excessive grand affair. It will not look good if it is so.
Tend to agree Dio.
I actually didn’t think Kerry’s interview was all that harsh. A politician with a bit of nous wouldn’t have got into the tangle that Turnbull did. He really did it to himself.
Possible state recruits for the top job should Turnbull bow out (and Costello run away):
Peter Debnam (NSW, Vaucluse resident)
Troy Buswell (WA, quokka expert)
Robert Clark (VIC, charismatic former finance lawyer)
Michelle Lensink (SA, charismatic former Young Liberal branch president)
The Swedish Chef (QLD, energetic former restaurateur)
Finns
You can bet that that scandal won’t be the last. This whole shift in recent years to (unreported) CDS deals and private equity ventures means these scams are much easier to pull off. Like many I thought at the time that doing private equity deals in teh name of “cutting red tape and administrative costs” was jsut asking for fraud. S it will turn out to be. You can bet there are a few here in Oz too, because again, private equity is outside normal reporting rules.
I also agree that Turnbull has done it to himself. He talks too much.
It also hasn’t helped that Bishop has been so woeful. To be fair to Turnbull, he probably had no choice but to let her have Shadow Treasury, and I don’t think anyone expected her to be quite as bad as she has been.
Restaurateur? Is that title because he served up the Queensland Liberals to Clive Palmer in July?
Oh dear! Looks like it is ok for the likes of Howard but not for a rep of the great unwashed.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/comments/0,22058,22765609-5013922,00.html
No doubt for the book burning crowd, Bolt and Glen, this will simple be ignored.
“Wind, water and sun beat other energy alternatives, study finds”
http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2009/january7/power-010709.html
Not whole 10km!!!
http://www.theage.com.au/world/cholera-outbreak-arrested-says-mugabe-20081212-6xln.html
Of course, of course. we should have faith in the old Mugabe to do the right thing. Yes, arrest those nasty nasty choleras and put them in jail. Something that he and his cronies are the world expert by now.
The Hong Kong and Cambodia Government should approach the Mugabe regime to show them how to “arrest” those equally nasty bird-flus and put them in jail.
I don’t think Turnbull was that bad on Friday, but his overall strategy has been poor. He has really painted himself into a corner with the deficit thing. As soon as Rudd said that they might have to go into deficit the pressure was removed from the government because everyone knew it had to happen. But by Turnbull saying the Libs wouldn’t it put teh pressure on him – how would they avoid a deficit? what tax would they raise? or spending cut? As Dyno said, he should have said nothing.
That news is 12 months old Scorpio.
Socrates, when I first read that last night I thought that with the Bush Administration being distracted with the Iraq oil deposits for the past eight years, that it would have been an opportune time for all sorts of shysters to jump on the band wagon as well.
There might well be any number of similar cases come to light. If so, it may well have been a good time for Obi & Hilliary to have run dead and let McCain take the rap.
According to the Queensland Parliament website, Springborg was a farm Labourer before becoming a Polly. I have never heard of him being in the Restaurant trade, but who knows, he might get sick of being curled up in a small ball one day and reappear to tell us.
http://parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/documents/memberBio/SpringborgLawrence.htm
Er yeah, it is.
Exclusive by Neil Keene
November 16, 2007 12:00am
It might well be Winnie, but it has been resurrected and become topical again which just goes to show that “some” don’t want to miss an opportunity to give a little kick here & there.
The Zimbabwean “information” (read propaganda) minister said that the cholera outbreak was an act of germ warfare and genocide by the British.
No, I didn’t make that up.
fredn 488
Thanks for that link – great report! It confirms what people in my company who work on wind plants tell me – they are very efficient. The only problem with wind in SA is not matching peak/off peak demands – it is getting the power grid capacity to get more wind power back to Adelaide. Most of our current grid has been laid out to suit the coal fired power plants. I said last night I thought we may have to look at nuclear but that was only in the sense that it would beat coal with any realistic carbon price. But in SA wind will beat it too.
So 7.30 Report inteview was defining th moment , when that vast demographic rep of ‘oz’ voters turned off turnbull Given Govt 59/41 Turnbulls approval is sound and above his Partys , unlike Nelson so public ar not as scathing as here
Tink turnbull has done a fair job in circumstances , opposition leader in post Howard and skilled Rudd era is not easy Perhaps that silver linning he was born with has left him without street smarts , but he is new to politics
His biggest problam is not himself or julie , its that W/C albertross in th room deeps in all voters minds ….suspect that is just going to keep on giving
When was it resurrected?
We’re in 2008…
Scoprio 493
Probably so but they do need a leader now. I hope Obama will be one for them (and us).
Ron
I agree with you on Workchoices being Turnbull’s biggest liability. He has been clumsy on other issues but is trying his best. But raising IR issues now is just crazy. That is where Bishop is a big liaibility for teh coalition, even more than on the economy, because she just can’t let go of it.
Soc
apropos our discussion re the IEEE,could you provide a link to what you consider their peer body
ps I’m not being a prig,just genuinely interested
ta
Yesterday.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_losing_battle_for_the_centre/P150/
Coming from QLD, I hadn’t seen it before and thought it was worth a run because I wouldn’t be the only one.
I guess it’s one advantage of being a Lib. You usually get a better view.
Gus
There really isn’t any single one. It varies by country and profession. The biggest professional bodes that represent engineers in Australia would be Engineers Australia or APESMA (engineers adn scientists) and there are similar bodies in every OECD country. Many are affiliated but there is no single “uber group”. The IEEE ratings are pretty good for electrical technology but not mech eng stuff like cars.
Ron wrote
Sorry true Ron, but thats just a crock of you know what….
reprise from a bit back …
He is all piss and wind and the smart mouth lawyer act has severe limitations against anyone even a smiggen brighter than fran kelly.
allbull…….(with red kerry) ….. was given amble chance to criticise the governments policy and approach.
Then he was surprised, wrong footed and was most certainly totally unprepared and unable to answer what HE would do. What HIS policy would be ? He was asked multiple times what HE would do.
He twisted like corpse on the end of a rope and still he did not, could not answer what he would do – even though he spent the initial part of the interview rebuffing what was being done by the government.
If allbull is the best, the brightest the fibs can offer, god help them all.
allbull is a DUD !!! and a third rater. IF he is going to say this is wrong, that is wrong, the obvious question is what is your policy. What specifically would you do ?
If he is the real deal, the business wizard, the grand poobar, the font of all knowledge, the saviour, etc etc…
where the hell is the vision ? where is any substance to his verbose banging of his gums ?
This bloke is a DUD ?
Thanks for the clarification Soc
I think I’ll stick with the IEEE as no other body seemingly exists as you state.Also no other body i could find was affiliated to orgs like NASA and UNESCO
I suppose thats why they are considered the peak body then,and used for benchmarking and as a Ranking tool.
cheers
Socrates,
The Libs main problem is they still haven’t come to grips with the fact that the Australian people “REJECTED” them on November 24, last year.
They think that an unfortunate error of judgement occurred with a small percentage of electors and that, with a bit of bringing that error to their attention, then the status quo will be rectified at the next election and the rightful rulers of this fair land will again be in their rightful place.
I’m pretty sure that will happen, but it will be a different place than the one they are thinking of. I do hope they get used to being on the “left” of the Speaker!
Instead of sitting back and sucking on it for a while and taking their medicine and getting their selves in order to make a decent fist of opposition, they are treating the whole exercise as though it is just a matter of filling in time till 2100.
You just made genberalisations Dave , tell me what Turnbull’s approval ratings should be given Govt 2PP is 59/41 Your comment does not stack up to th polls that rate approval
also should check out his histary , say Paul barrys Packer uncensored (not censored edition)
and to help you along with my silver linning he was born with has left him without street smarts , he’s into liberal anti deficit philosophy and questons finaly will be asked once in deficit which programs should be cut So your generalisations miss politcal markers
Maybe that is the syndrome that allows Julie Bishop not to read infrastructure documents that list where the jobs are coming from for each project. She probably intends to start reading important documents in 2099.
and there’s the rub for ANY opposition leader fab or fib
talcum would best lay low and let the righties devour each other
Other people apparently plagarise for her without her knowledge.
Maybe these same people read 119 page reports for her and don’t bother telling her.
Geez, Ron, I can usually make some sense of what you’re saying, but 510 has got me totally confused. Care to try it again?
Agree with Dave, Turnbull is a waste of space. And they ain’t got anything else.
ron wrote ;
I don’t understand. Please explain in english ?
Again …..
It’s like this….. if allbull is going to say rudd is wrong for whatever…what would allbull do ? Its piss or get off the pot.
We are not trying to put a man on the moon here !
There has been a seismic shift from indicvidual friedman , and turnbull’s history is wedded to that to thoughts , th Tanner chorus is fattening public up , and Turnbull will be left with answers that don’t fit program cuts and voter Govt expectations of where shift has moved A street smart person would see end of this road , but Turnbull’s past silver linnings prevent him seeing
No one has yet answered my queston , tell me what Turnbull’s approval ratings should be given Govt 2PP is 59/41 Your comment does not stack up to th polls that rate approval
I think “Bert from Eltham’ has got it nailed fairly well here.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_losing_battle_for_the_centre/P150/
52
Turnbull’s approval ratings are totally meaningless when compared to the 2PP figure.
Howard was consistently polling better than the Coalition 2PP figure both in PPM and approval figure.
Look what happened to him & the Libs.
The polls show that people like Turnbull (a majority) but don’t want him as PM. How can that be good for an opposition trying to get into government?
Mate.
Maaaaaate….
Um, shhhhhh
True tragics keep those things to themselves
Inner Westie went:
heh! Cruel
Possum, it was actually startling stuff, Tasmanian Hansard after reading the queensland one for so long.
Queensland follows a familiar pattern, Opposition walks into question time armed with front page story of Courier Mail, get flogged, walk out. Turn up next day do it all again.
expect 52% approval , against 41/59…that would be unlikely to stay
Opposition leaders its more dificult to poll above your 2PP , that was Brenda’s problam
“How can that be good for an opposition trying to get into government?”
Relying on shanahans PPM is not for me at all , you can hav it …there is NOTHING good for libs trying to get into Govt with th W/C albertross there , which they refuse to fully ditch , and Julkie Bishop still wanting , plus seismic change that is anti Lib philoosophy but is becoming more live
Gary Bruce
“The polls show that people like Turnbull (a majority) but don’t want him as PM”
Th first part of your quote is my point , he has done OK (although expect will drop abit)…but not a danger to Labor sitting at 959/41 at all
However 2nd part of your quote ….PPM….actualy is more a reflecton on how reely positive voters tink of Govt and big ticks to Rudd as PM and how poorly they feel of Liberals as an alternative , than a reflecton on Turnbull (but Shanahan sees PPM diferently & like that thingy thing)
Ron, I don’t understand why you think the 2PP figure, or the Liberal primary itself, is disconnected from Turnbull’s ratings? As the leader and primary spokesperson Turnbull is responsible for a significant portion of the Liberal vote, not just his preferred PM. And from all the reports we get he makes the “policies” too, so it’s a reflection on him more than any other people in the party.
But even with a low 41% figure, 19% is pretty abysmal. That means less than half the people who would vote for the Coalition (And we must be getting down to the rusted ons now) want Turnbull as PM. If he can’t even get half the rusted ons how is he going to get the swing voters?
Diferent people read these things diferently , so its reely value judgemetn how one links primary , 2PP , PPM , and leaders approval So connecting them is matter of opinion
Now Shanhan likes PPM , i don’t I tink its abit of a beauty contest because why wouldn’t a huge block of Liberal voters tink rudd is preferred seeing he is doing a good job What 66/19 But 66/19 is not how they will vote , much more than 19% will vote for Liberals AND turnbull as alternative Govt WITH Turnbull as PM (presently 41% 2PP….so reely for mine 41% 2PP reely prefer Turnbbull anyway as preferred PM when crunch decision is there …which makes Shanahans 19% strange
However Aproval rating however more consolidates that 2PP , but PPM has many suporters but Miss World pageant to me
I found this absolutely astounding. To be paid “SO MUCH” for so little result.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_losing_battle_for_the_centre/P250/
Absolutely Scorpio
“We made mistakes,” Wagoner (GM) conceded at a Senate hearing last week.
Guess thats one way to describe gross imcompetence By way that Senate hearing th 3 Motor exec’s turned up to as I previously blogged…each turns up wanting 40 billion from th taxpayers ….in there own private jets It says it all reely
scorpio @ 528
I wouldn’t trust them with $100 to build billycarts.
Seems the GFC might have hit where we least expected ….
There you are, the simplest investment strategy for you:
In the other words, stick to Balanced Growth. Averaging 7% over 10-15 years period. anything above this, do it at your own risk and greed.
In the other words, there is no FREE lunch when comes to investing. So who needs investment advisors, financial planners, investment bankers?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-solin/lessons-from-bernie_b_150745.html
IEEE
Gus I have been a member and sat on one of there standard setting committees. It’s not a peak body, if you want to be unkind you would call it a publishing house.
So the aim is for an orderly bankruptcy in the auto industry?
Since 2005, GM has lost a cumulative $72.4 billion
Which is an executive expense account under $14.5 billion a year. So the WH $14 billion rescue package isn’t going to go far split 3 ways.
My prediction: At least one of the 3 will be cactus by mid 2009. Probably GM.
As of March this year, GM CEO Richard Wagoner’s salary was reduced to $2.2 million/year and his incentive bonuses trimmed to $3.5 million. LOL Heck, I’d be willing to do the job just for the bonus. I figure with what I could loose them a year they’d soon be paying me at least $5.7 mill. in incentives anyway.
Scorpio 528
Thanks that article is a great summary. From an engineering POV they made a fatal decision to invest heavily in another round of SUV decision in about 2006. THis was bizarre as fuel prices were already going up. Recently they wrote that off adn admitted teh new models would not go into production. Despite the rhetoric they haven’t invested much in the Volt till recently. Now they are doing so with some desperation, but developing a whole new car and drivetrain takes 3-4 years, hence it won’t hit showrooms till early 2011. In the meantime they are stuck and may go broke before that happens.
Juliem 532
Yes its almost funny to think how few options some of these people have now. Costello surely isn’t alone. The whole financial advisor/CEO gravy-train has been exposed for the sham it was. What else for a Lib ex-polly to do? Most of them were never actually good enough at law to make partner in a major law firm, so they suddenly find themselves a bit useless. As Costello’s book shows, writing skills aren’t strong either.
There was an article in the SMH last week about the number of job losses in central Sydney already going into the thousands. Not many places for an ex-politician with no actual skills in law or economics to hide.
For one of the simplest, funniest and most accurate explanations of how the whole financial mess was caused, the “Daily Dilbert” cartoon for today is brilliant! See 13 December at:
http://www.dilbert.com/
Dogbert the Financial Advisor: You should invest all of your money in diseased livestock.
Dogbert: It would be unwise to invest in just one sick cow, but if you aggregate them together, the risk goes away.
Dogbert: Its called maths
Pointy headed Boss (Client): Suddenly I feel all savy.
ROTFL except when I think how many people have lots their jobs over this crap.
Oh, please…
Kerry-Anne Walso lays into the Coalition with a limp lettuce leaf:
This is Kerry-Anne Walsh writing a gentle reminder to the Libs that their internicine shenanigans – among themselves and with the Nats – are not a good look.
Turnbull is of course a brilliant politician, and he will solve all these problems, reverse the polls and become Prime Minister (one supposes) in short order.
Contrast this mild reminder that things might get crook in LibWorld to Walsh’s constant nit-picking over Rudd: he’s a control freak; he’s a bad boss; Rudd’s ascendancy is all a con, a honeymoon that will come crashing down etc. etc.
Kerry-Anne needs to be able to distinguish between a “smart politician” and someone who is smart (some might say a “smartarse”) and who is also a politician. There’s a difference.
……………………….
Have had many chats with senior Holden execs on the lemon that is their latest Commodore design. The basic plan was to design a car that was big by Australian standards and medium-sized by American standards, and hence suitable for both the domestic petrol-head market and the “concerned” American motorist who wanted a roomy car but not a big tank. They have clearly failed in both aims.
I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve heard the following, both from Holden types and general punters who drive their products: “If I want a big car, why shouldn’t I have one?” This is usually followed by a golly-gosh statement such as, “Anyway, their petrol consumption is less than a Prius, so there!”
They lose sight of the fact that the reason they can have a “big car” is because their boss pays for it (and its petrol) out of the company fleet budget. They forget that private sales of Commodores are practically nil. As to the Prius (or whatever hybrid they’re naysaying), the don’t realise the test it’s put to is one where the Commodore performs best: on the open road, not around town in stop-start traffic.
The point is that GM has gone broke because their execs have sniffed too many of the fumes eminating from the brains of petrol-heads. There’s those fumes and there’s “The New American Century”… remember that? When America was going to naturally take the lead in the world and grab most of its oil as well, by force? The bigger the delusions of grandeur, the bigger the follies: the Egyptians and the Aztecs had their pyramids, the Yanks had their imperial Hummers.
Yes Bill I agree with the Commodore riddle. Pass this onto the execs. I thought that they should release a new small efficient chick car named “the zodiac”. Each car could be badged according to the star sign of preference. The horoscope pages are still of the biggest reads in magazines and papers. I think people/girls would go for it to express their individuality.
BB
Your comments on Holden confirm my own fears: they (GMH) really don’t have a “shot in the locker” to fire any time soon. Once I read their planned timing on the delivery of the Volt I became seriously worried. It implied they had no major new economical model in development ready to release. Of course, the previous government swallowed what the local amnufacturers told them hook line and sinker in their previous industry policy. We were supposed to invest $6 billion in that. The trouble is that GMH have for a long time skewed their local plans to what helped Detroit, not the Australian national interest. Remember back to the 80s when their response to high fuel prices then was to roll out their “J Car” (called Camira here) which turned out to be a huge lemon, one of the most unreliable cars ever made in Australia.
Regarding the petrol fumed attitude, another frustration I feel here in Adelaide is the ongoing support for the Clipsal 500. The event turns the place into a mini-Detroit for a few weeks. Criticising it is like damning motherhood, yet I can’t help wondering if it drives away almost as many tourists as it attracts.
BB
Is the local fleet sales of big sixes the reason why we don’t get rid of the tax subsidy for leased company cars? Myself and many others who are interested in reducing transport CO2 emissions have pointed out that there is a quite perverse incentive at present to use company cars (usually big) for longer kms to satisfy lease conditions. But I presume the local car makers pressure Canberra that if they loose those deasl their few remaining local sales will dissappear?
May I offer one policy comment on the car industry: whatever future assistacne the industry may recieve, it MUST be tied to the production of more efficient models. I woudl suggest a maximum C02 emission level to qualify should be about 160 g CO2/km. This is about the level of a Corolla and is the current European fleet average. The EC is looking to introduce limits in future where the maximum will be 140g CO2/km. Most of our cars are around 250-260 g Co2/km. A Prius get 106 g CO2/km. It is also a good proxy for fuel consumption.
Another part of Aussie folklore disappears.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24790580-38198,00.html?from=public_rss
centaur
Your idea is absolute genius, until you remember that there was also a famous serial killer called “The Zodiac” who was never caught. “The Zodiac” probably wouldn’t sell too well in SF. Ford made a Zodiac in the 60’s. The starsign thing is really brilliant. You should patent it.
Socrates
I don’t want to be a naysayer about the Prius but it’s critics complain about the cadmium in the battery having to travel around the world a few times before ending up in the car. This uses a lot of CO2 emissions in transport which negates it’s CC impact somewhat.
Socrates,
This is something that has regularly made my head spin.
My brother in law leases a Ford 250 twin cab with a 7.8 ltr engine, automatic, aircon, power steering etc and top of the range model.
The taxpayer picks up the bill for this great tank plus the fuel. Just what vehicles like this are doing to the oil reserves are mind boggling as well as the amount on GH gasses per klm they emit.
By encouraging this sort of excess, the Howard mob have a lot to answer for. I hope Rudd can bring some sanity back to the Business community. The economy and the environment will be all the better for it.
Diogenes,
Perhaps the following can be incorporated in to the Zodiac marketing material.
http://people.tribe.net/958cf99f-d56b-460a-9bcd-9855a0c1400f/blog/62b8e406-1ba3-4f2f-95b3-ddf3656785de
Dio
I am aware of that claim. IMO its greatly exaggerated by CC skeptics. Making the nickel metal hydride battery in a hybrid does produce a fair bit of CO2 but most estimates of life cycle CO2 I have seen still put hybrids well ahead – around 40% better. Plus they are doing a lot of research tomake more efficient and longer lasting batteries.
In any case my argument applies to the Prius, Honda Civic hybrid, Toyota Yaris or anything else similar with economy under 140 g CO2/km. Small cars will do that as well as hybrids. But you need a hybrid to achieve that sort of output with a medium sized car.
Scorpio
Yes the Howard gvernment policy has been a disaster in this area. If you didn’t know better you woudl think Howard was in denial about CO2 emissions as well as car sales
The average fuel efficiency and emissions of the Australian vehicle fleet circa 2006 was actually WORSE than 20 years earlier. Sounds hard to believe till you remember that in the 80s Toyota Corollas, Mitsubishi Colts, Holden Geminis and Ford Lasers were all made in Australia. Manufacturers make more profit on the big sixes though so the Detroit manufacturers always wanted to cut their range back to them in the long term. And our stupid government policy not only permitted it, we gave them public money to help retool their factories to do it.
GG
I have a t-shirt with those on it! I’m not allowed to wear it to the in-laws house. I’m also not allowed to wear my Rage Against The Machine “nuns with guns” t-shirt there (my aunt in law is a nun). Some people are so picky!!!
On the Zodiac thing, each star-sign has a different colour. So fellow Librans or whatever would recognise each other by the colour car they drove. I think it would be really popular.
The tax review consultation paper has been released. Wonder if the Shadow Treasurer’s Office will read this document?
http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/ConsultationPaper.aspx?doc=html/Publications/Papers/Consultation_Paper_Summary/index.htm
polyquats @ 535:
“So the aim is for an orderly bankruptcy in the auto industry?”
Basically, yes. The current Detroit business model is stuffed. But now is a particularly calamitous time to be laying off tens of thousands of workers.
Orderly bankruptcies happen all the time, there is nothing unusual or new about this idea. However the first step is that the company itself has to recognise its predicament and openly acknowledge it – maybe GM has no choice?
There’s a funny cartoon in today’s Sunday Age paper.
http://www.theage.com.au/cartoons/
540
Bushfire Bill
“the Egyptians and the Aztecs had their pyramids, the Yanks had their imperial Hummers.”
Several thousand years later we wonder how they built the pyramids, in 10 years time the Hummers will be crushed and forgotten; bit sad really.
Wonder if that submission was from a South Australian MP. Problem is that there is a small matter of a High Court decision to overcome to implement that tax change.
The Commonwealth has the power to charge any tax as long as there is no difference in rate between states and parts of states. I do not see how Commonwealth taxation of gambling is hindered.
552
The US has sensible bankruptcy lays however to go through chapter 11 someone has to lend the money. The scarcity of debtor in possession financing is causing problems. Perhaps the government should do little more than fund their chapter 11.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/scarcity-of-debtor-in-possession.html
Thanks scorpio for that Interesting article on the failure of GM’s unwilliness to change with the times.
Can I may one small request when people paste large articles could they please create paragraph breaks for that block was not easy to read.
Tom, why then do you think there is a difference between how Europe and the USA treat lottery wins compared to Australia? The ATO has always wanted to treat gambling wins as overseas countries do but the High Court decision is the only stumbling block I have ever heard of that would explain the difference.
It is a bit like the case of Taxi Drivers where the ATO lost a case, or rather the Howard Government withdrew from the High Court case bought on by the ATO with the intent of declaring Taxi Drivers to be employees and they have been treated as contractors ever since.
mexicanbeemer,
That was just a small block cut from half an article on Jack the Insider’s blog. The poster probably cut out the breaks so as to allow for both halves taking up less space.
Both halves of the article would have taken up close to the equalivent of two full pages on PB.
I understand your frustration but I didn’t know where the original breaks were and didn’t wish to undermine the intent of the article. Both halves posted on JtI’s blog were highly informative and the incompetence uncovered is massive and it is a real worry that so many large companies which are so integral to a country’s economy, can be run by Management so out of touch with the realities of the real world.
Truly frightening when you think that they could be paid so much for so little result. The big worry for ordinary people is the unfunded superannuation, losses in funds and the fact that companies in trouble often borrow heavily against these funds to brop up their bottom line.
The proposed Qantas/British Airways alliance is a classic case in point. BA has billions in unfunded super obligations. Qantas should keep as far away from this as is possible IMHO.
Steve,
The problem Howard had here was if they were treated as employees, then his AWA’s under Workchoices, were shot to pieces because an AWA virtually classifies each employee under one, to be an independent contractor, contracting their employment under agreement with the employer.
Of course they were no such thing in practice.
That is just an interpretation of the current law. If the current tax law was changed then gambling wins could be taxed. Taxing gambling would be best done by having it collected by the lottery companies, bookmakers and such like.
Yes, cantaur009 @541, good idea. Though, I wonder how well the Cancer will sell … (a little too bold for most motorists, methinks) …
Scorpio, it was one of a trail of decisions that were precedents for the workchoices legislation. The point I was making is try to reverse it and see how difficult it would be. Similarly, the reversal of the Gambling Tax decision is nigh impossible or it would have been done by now.
Thats cool Scorpio!!
I know whenever I post a pasted comment from a third party that inserting breaks leaves open the danger of changing the intent of original comments! but still it was an Interesting set of comments about GM
562 Tom, nice suggestion but that is exactly how the High Court decision came about. The gambling lobby will turn up in court with more silk than there is in a silkworm farm and the situation will remain unchanged.
Fredn your ignorance is showing.
The IEEE Standards Association (IEEE-SA) is a leading developer of industry standards in a broad-range of industries. Globally recognized, the IEEE-SA has strategic relationships with the IEC, ISO, and the ITU and satisfies all SDO requirements set by the World Trade Organization, offering more paths to international standardization.
http://www.ieee.org/web/standards/home/index.html
Wouldn’t taxation of gambling windfalls also make gambling losses a legitimate tax deduction? Given that everything from hospitals to the Sydney Opera House have been built on the cumulative losses of ordinary people having a flutter, wouldn’t such a move have a negative effect on future infrastructure development. Could the Federal Government surplus handle such an insidious move?
Rudd fast-tracks renewable energy investments.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/14/2445954.htm
No new money though.
Wow another revolution from Kevin!
What Mr Rudd cannot admit is that Nuclear Power reduces Greenhouse gases and produces more energy than renewables…
Glen,
That’s “Kevolution”, mate.
Professional punters and bookmakers pay tax, the ATO tried to tax a punter who had won about $1 million in a year on the horsies but lost the case in the High Court, ATO said he was a professional and was main source of income, punter said it was just luck.
On gambling heart-wrenching story today
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/jackpot-no-im-afraid-not/2008/12/13/1228585181516.html
If you can’t trust poker machines, what is there left?
Cleopatra never loses. Each divorce has been settled on her terms …
Two entertaining articles here:
http://law.ato.gov.au/atolaw/view.htm?find=%22gambling%22&docid=JUD/*1925*2KB37/00002
http://www.murdoch.edu.au/elaw/issues/v2n2/kee222.html
Oops
Graham v Green [1925] 2 KB 37
Oz
The best thing they could do to encourage alternative energy generation without picking winners or investing in the generation itself would be to complete/upgrade the national power grid. Tight state goverrnments are reluctant to do it and would rather keep milking consumer power bills as a hidden tax income stream.
I can think of at least two examples where the viability of alternative energy schemes will be affected by the capacity of the grid to get the power to markets – hot rocks in SW Qld/NW SA and wind power in SE SA / West Vic. Wind generation in particular is being held back by transmission capacity, because most of the existing grid was built with public funds to existing power stations. So now in a situation of privatised energy suppliers it acts as a major sunk-cost/subsidy in favour of coal fired power. Also, inadequacies in the grid reduce the potential for inter-state competition between pwoer generators.
An upgraded major power transmission line can cost aroudn $1 million/km. To picka practical example a completed major line from Adelaide to Melbourne via the south coast woudl probably cost close to a billion. Nevertheless it would initiate a lot of potential projects and that would trully be nation building.
Ah Glen. You were hit for 6 on nuclear power the other day and it was proven you were making things up. I wonder why you keep trying.
Socrates, I’ve heard from a lot of people, now you as well, about issues surrounding power transmission and how they can be resolved.
Here’s a radical and unique idea – I’ve heard of these things called “photovoltaic panels”. If we put a few of them on houses that’d reduce our need to build more power stations and transmission lines.
We also have to figure out ways for rewarding or better encouraging energy efficiency. There’s so much waste it’s ridiculous. We can reduce our ecological footprints ~40% without having to restructure our power sources, simply by making slightly different lifestyle choices and being more efficient.
Oz
I agree and we have PV panels and a solar hot water system sitting on our roof right now. I understand that solar hot water is compulsory on every new home in Ireland so why we don’t to it automatically here is incomprehensible. But that won’t cover large scale industrial uses, which still account for over 50% of energy consumption in most of our cities. To make large scale alternatives viable, that grid is still essential. On an efficient grid you only lose about 1% power over 100km, so it makes a large scale far flung wind or solar farm system viable. The trouble is our existing grid was only built around one mode of generation: coal.
Here is an interesting review of the new Holden V8 Commodore (aka Pontiac) that has gone on sale in USA.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/automobiles/autoreviews/14pontiac-g8.html?8dpc
It is not unflattering, but the bottom line is that it is the car they should have been selling in the year 2000, not now.
You know what else wouldn’t go astray? Some kind of re-jigging on the manufacturer side of DC appliances, like computers for example. I mean you get your solar power (DC) which you then convert into AC for a 20% loss and then you convert it back into DC for your appliance for another 20% loss.
Yay, CO2!
Fellow bludgers, Noel Pearson wrote yesterday how the election of Kevin Rudd and Barack Obama signified the passing of racial wedge politics so viciously employed by conservatives over recent years.
The Howard Years indeed!
“THE ascension of Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party in Australia, followed by Barack Obama’s Democratic Party in the US, marks the passing of a species of wedge politics that had been perfected by US Republicans during the Reagan era. If Pat Buchanan and Richard Nixon were the originators of this strain of politicking, then Lee Atwater and his successor, the redoubtable Karl Rove, turned wedge politics into a devastating formula for conservative electoral ascendancy.
Australian conservatives imported the wedge in 1996, and it formed part of the formidable cultural and political armoury that underpinned their 11-year reign. Their achievement was to use the wedge as one of several strategies to maintain their electoral success and achieve their policy agendas. At times the wedge was decisive, at other times it was not.
Of course, driving wedges between constituencies and between constituents and opponent parties is as old as democratic politics. What made the wedge politics of the late 20th century distinct was its preparedness to use cultural, sexual and, most significantly, racial identity politics as the virus to foment division.
In an era when explicit racism was no longer possible, to employ such a wedge required a particular cunning and audacity. Racialist insinuation through dog whistling and other breathtaking innovations developed by the machine men of the Republican Party enabled racial prejudice to be used for electoral purposes.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24790915-5013477,00.html
When was anything proven by you Oz?
You just cant hack the evidence that supports Nuclear Power, and you had no good arguments against it!
Oz and Glen
I should say my comments on teh power grid apply to ALL alternatives, and even new nuclear sites, so in an ideal world I would hope there might be some bipartisan suppor for investment in them.
Aristotle
Ironic that Pearson was Howard’s preferred indigenous representative and that his condemnation of wedge politics has appeared in the Murdoch Press – the wedge to Howard’s hammer.
569 – this will be in effect be new money quicker though. Do you really think after 18 months they’re going to say “Well, that’s it, the money is spent, no more”. The new money will come on line faster than the 6 years it could have done taken to do so.
Let me try that again.
569 – this will be in effect new money quicker though. Do you really think after 18 months they’re going to say “Well, that’s it, the money is spent, no more”. The new money will come on line faster than the 6 years it could have taken to do so.
Gary
I think what Rudd or Albanese needs to say is that there will be parallel efforts to plan new infrastructure initiatives while these brought forward ones are being built. Most peopel understand these thigns take years to get off the ground so its imposible for Labor to dream up new projects, get them tendered and start new obs rolling straight away. But if they proceed with what Howard slowed down, and show they are planning for a follow up, then people will understand the intent.
Gary
They shoudl also clarify that all the AusLink projects are still proceeding, and that they will be looking at the States “wishlist” projects, (which included things like rail electrification and the desal plant here in Adelaide) and will make announcments on them when they announce AusLink II.
This is jsu a suggestion – I think Fridays announcment was good, but the short version didn’t give enough context, while most punters will not read the full report.
#484 -
Soc, your wish has come true sooner than expected:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/on-the-brink-of-collapse-20081213-6xzw.html?page=-1
There are suckers born every second. When will they every learn?
The GFC certainly seems to have created a clearing house opportunity for projects delayed, deferred and warehoused by the previous Government. But, I’m sure there will always be another road to be upgraded, a trainline to be built and a socially progressive energy project to be considered.
I have great confidence that future generations will not run out of things to spend Government money on. They’re our childen afterall.
GG
Agreed but the point is there is a big lead time. Without that being done properly it risks turning out liek another Epping – Chatsworth rail line. And I wouldn’t suggest that everythign delayed shoudl eb done. Some were pure pork, like road bypasses of western NSW towns with little or no traffic.
Fins
Yes that won’t be the last here or in the US either. I still haven’t sen much word on whats happenign with all the “private equity” funds and that was the lot I was mos suspicious of from day one. When people intentionally set up a business to avoid normal reporting rules, you ought to be suspicious.
I’m not sure what the government has in mind early next year with its major infrastructure spending announcement Socrates. You never know, you may get your wish. I hope so.
Soc, this is really a very long long long rail line that we are building. No wonder NSW is broke, all way to Chatsworth Kalifornia. Now, i happen to live in Chatswood, and we are building a rail line to Epping. Same one?
Socrates,
Your time starts now!
I was involved in school councils for many, many years. The rule was that you always had a major project sitting in the bottom drawer ready to go for when the local MP (Government, Council or federal) came a calling with a bag of money that had to be spent in a very short period of time.
You would hope that Government money was allocated in an orderly, transparent and fair way. The reality is it isn’t.
Local groups act in a practical way to take advantage of any largesse that comes their way. Why wouldn’t they.
BTW bypassing small NSW towns night be a good idea. I saw “The cars that ate Paris”.
Oops, slip of the keyboard there, Fins. It only seems to be taking that long
GG, for a moment I thought Soc has a plan for a “railway line that ate NSW”.
GG
What you say should be the case but hasn’t been. In my experience in transport in the past ten years there was first a marked shift away from proper forward planning of infrastructure as various governments imagined they could avoid the cost with a few economic demand measures. Then they realised they couldn’t and there has been a frantic rush as a large backlog has to be made up. Of course doing something in 12 months that should take 3 years has a high risk of error. NSW are worst offenders here; QLD and WA the best, and SA and Vic in the middle. In some areas eg, freight transport planning, we don’t even compare well with NZ, let alone US or Europe. On the plus side a good transport planning process was introduced under AusLink, and it should be continued with urban passenger rail included.
Socrates,
There are a number of forces at work. State Governments have subcontracted nation building to private enterprise because of cost and bureaucratic stultification. Evidence, tollways, tunnels and PPPs that seem to have dominated the vernacular of planning for some time now. By definition, private enterprise will build stuff from which they can make a quid.
However, the inhernet contradiction is the unrelenting demand of all for equal access to services. Why does it cost the same to post a letter from Melbourne to Fitzroy as from Melbourne to Broome.
Once you start going down the market route to provide services, you start to questioning the viability of providing those services. Question, “Why is Adelaide?”
What is viable economically is not necessarily viable politically. Hence pork barrelling and “smoothing” allocations.
He’s right.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24791015-5000117,00.html
Storm Financial are a big outfit in Brisbane but I haven’t seen much of them in the local papers.
http://www.stormfinancial.com.au/
Be afraid, and be very very afraid. No wonder the Chinese are not interested in the so called “Big Three” afterall. they are the dodo of the car industry already.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7779261.stm
Gezz! That didn’t take long!
After posting a story, just three hours ago, about Rudd fast-tracking the solar energy fund to be spent over the next 18 months instead of the next six years, the ABC has replaced it with a carping, whining, whinge list from the Coalition saying:
not just as any story, or a side bar,m but as the front page lead, in place of the original good news.
Once again it has only taken three hours for the Opposition to see through the sham and confidence trick that is the Rudd government and point to a fatal weakness that renders the hundreds of millions of dollars being invested down to the level of “meaningless”. That is, no meaning, totally useless, a complete failure, waste of money. Poor fella my country: you’re doomed with Rudd.
What else could the ABC news gurus do but bring this devastating criticism to the forefront so that we may know our government has failed us again?
Thanks for the good idea aknowledgment all. Each sign of the zodiac has a different symbol which you would badge at the back, front, steering wheel and removable head rest embroided. Can’t patent an idea. Love to see someone run with it though- tell GM bushfire Bill. The colours might be too constricting.
On the political front many of my Liberal friends are glad that ALP is in at the momment. The ability to spend is one of our strengths (sometimes not at the right times). They believe that had Cossie been in he would still be waiting and far to slow to act. Everything would have crumbled and Xmas would be very bleak for many. Except for the fuelwatch and grocery watch blunders this government has been exceptional. An A+ for effort so far and a B for achievment.
Check out the opt out clauses in this story. It will be amazing if this lot could set a target under any circumstances.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/14/2445911.htm
Another perspective on saving the auto industry in the US.
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/12/11/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-us-piano-industry/
GG
Strongly agree!! From the first book written on modern economics (Adam Smith) transport and infrastructure were textbook examples of public goods: things that were needed for a society to function/progress but for which a market mechanism wouldn’t deliver an adequate supply. The whole ethos and rhetoric of business invaded my field (transport infrastructure) from about the late 80s onwards. It certainly didn’t improve the quality of the decision making. Prior to this there had been problems with some engineers building things there wasn’t a need for (eg Tasmanian dams). But now we have gotten to the point where we havn’t been building things we badly need (eg Sydney rail).
Its interesting too, that I have never seen any papers on the viability of employing economists, or how much we might save by cutting executive workforces by 50%.
What’s sad about the NSW government and their continued addiction to roads, tunnels and tollways is that there’s actually significant political capital to be gained by investing in public transport. It would be a popular move.
They aren’t not doing it to appeal to motorists, they’re doing it because they’re behove to the roads lobby.
Is anyone going to hazard a guess what the emissions reduction target for 2020 is going to be tomorrow (we’ll use reductions based on 1990 levels as that seems the most commonly used, dunno how they plan to phrase it)? The Greens are asking for 40%, the mining industry for 5%. The Climate Institute wants 25%. I’m going with a 10% reduction dressed up as 15%, but with a caveat that another 10% can be added depending on whether the US, China and India make an effort.
Climate change plans released tomorrow
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24797998-601,00.html
Oz
How does the truck delivering to Woolies or the tanker delivering fuel or the courier delivering just about everything catch public transport?
Bit of a simplistic argument old chum.
Oz!!
I don’t know enough about NSW but from a Melbourne point of view the Car is King and will foreve be so, does that mean we should not invest in Public Transport, of course notn and until we seriously invest in what is an ourdated system that is find if your are a tourist or have all day to get to point A to point B.
Melbourne’s system is pathetic, the irony is we are forever telling oversea people about how great the Trams are but in reality they are a joke.
For this reason Governemnt s should be willing to invest in Road projects for while a lot can be done with Public Transport but at the end of the day we are a large nation which has a great need for well constructed roads.
Public transport is fine for people to commute to an office job, for students to get to their place of learning and really not much else.
It can only operate at a frequency neccessary to be used in urban areas. So are we wasting money on public transport?
Can a tradesman carry his tools of trade on the train? No.
Can an outbound sales person use public transport? No
Can anyone do the weekly shop using a bus, train or tram? No
The public transport lobby cannot or will not address these issues.
Oz I’ll bet on a 15% reduction to go to 20% when the others come on board.
I agree that public transport investment would be a good step forward but the main game for GW is still what we do with power generation. That is over 50% of our CO2 emissions whereas transport is only about 16%.
Just to prove what is happening in GM (USA) can’t happen here, Vauxhall (GM England) has just announced job cuts (900) and is asking employees to take a “holiday” on reduced pay for several months. They have a large stockpile of unsold cars.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4988616.stm
Ruawake you’re acting like we have a brilliant public transport system and not enough roads for our trucks… when it’s the other way around.
You think there aren’t any trucks in London? Hong Kong? Tokyo? Shanghai? Copenhagen? Berlin?
Being a “large nation” has nothing to do with having decent public transport for urban areas.
ruawake
Its horses for courses – more PT in inner city areas and on main transport spines, more roads with better bus facilities in outer suburbs. What you say is why we need more economical cars though – we will still have 70% of trips by car, so if they aren’t made more efficient we will never meet any CO2 targets.
What you say of Melbourne is true there and elsewhere. However the reason I say that we need more PT investment is that there is a desire to shift more peopel to PT now and its impossible – underinvestment has meant that our trains and buses are so full there is no room for more peopel on them. Our investment record on PT is very poor.
Yep, Bushfire Bill, just went and checked the ABC Online News. It’s extraordinary that the lead story is the Opposition’s reduction of the government’s announcement to “meaningless”. I guess I’ll just keep complaining.
Oz
Have a look at population density in the cities you mention – then compare them to Sydney.
Sydney = 2058/km²
London = 4,761/km²
Hong Kong = 6,352/km²
Tokyo = 5796/km²
Copenhagen = 5,777/km²
Berlin = 3,831 /km²
You see the problem? To have decent public transport you need high population densities. Even our most densely populated city does not come close.
Please show me which public transport feasibility studies state that as a fact?
Exclude to suburbs of Sydney and see what the population density is then.
Higher density cities make a more compelling case for public transport but it doesn’t mean “You must have so and so population density before you can be serviced with public transport”.
I should have said that Vauxhall proved the GM collapse COULD happen here
Here is the link to the Vauxhall story – they are offering staff “sabaticals” where tehy get 30% pay while taking 9 months off!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/merseyside/7781345.stm
http://www.demographia.com/db-sydney-dense.htm
Look at the population densities of those areas where a significant percentage of the population live. Higher even, then those cities you listed above. Public transport? Waverly has what, one bus service?
More info about the high density “myth”.
http://www.ptua.org.au/myths/density.shtml
Your “low density” argument doesn’t explain we had so many tram lines in Sydney 50 years ago.
Oz and Ruawake you are both partly right. Yes you do make PT more viable with higher population density. But our cities compare poorly to other cities with similar density. Compare us to Canadian or Scandinavian cities with similar density (say Ottawa, Vancouver, Toronto, Helsinki, Stockholm) and our use of public trnasport is generally lower. The reason is simple – our investment rate in infrastructure was low, even in % terms, through mostof the 90s (and a lot of earlier decades too).
All I am saying is that many more people need to use roads than public transport. Public Transport use is limited to those who do not need to carry much or only travel to and from work – education.
It may make Inner City Greenies feel warm and fuzzy but it solves nothing.
My perception is from living in a regional area.
“if just 20 per cent of people make just one return trip each by public transport per day.”
Yes and Pigs may Fly.
I don’t even think that’s correct. You talked about tradies and salespeople before but they are not the majority of the population, far from. And even if 60, 70% of people needed to use cars (which I dispute, but for arguments sake) it’s not like the other 30-40% who don’t need cars are using public transport.
I would suggest many kids are not allowed to catch PT and are driven to school. So I think we can realistically rule out the majority of the population under 12.
Then we could look at the over 65s. Some may use PT but I suggest many would not leave the house most days.
Then we have the 40% of Australian’s who live in rural and regional areas with little or no PT to speak of.
Then lets rule out people with disabilities and their carers, shiftworkers and people who work more than one job.
You get my drift? Public transport is a luxury for the few. Can we afford it?
Ruake, no one is talking about mass transit systems for rural areas.
Your post is full of strawmen.
Ruawake #627
I hope your wink indicated sarcasm.
If not I suggest you jump on a bus sometime and just see who is using public transport; the elderly, disabled, their carers, and that most privileged of groups, students.
free public transport-with unlimited advertising onboard and outside.
0.5% levy on High Income earners and business to pay ongoings
Fed Gvt chips 5 yrly to upgrade/expand network
Is there any sort of tipping competition going on around about what targets the Gov will set ie: green house targets?
20% is my bet
polyquats
The likelyhood of me walking 3k to the nearest bus stop in the hope that it actually appears and that it takes me anywhere near where I want to go is Zero.
Or maybe I could drive for 20 mins to the nearest train station?
I agree students make up a large proportion of PT use (see my previous posts). Disabled, Carers and Pensioners use PT but not every day.
PT is for commuters and students in urban areas in the main. Is this fair?
Spam Inbox
I went with 10% (based on 1990 emissions) dressed up as 15% with a further 10% possible if the Big Boys cut their emissions.
Socrates went 15% possibly going to 20% in the same circumstances.
I’d be very surprised, but pleased, if Rudd goes for 20% (based on 1990). That would match the EU.
We made the asia version of the FT
Australia to spend A$4.7bn on infrastructure
http://www.ft.com/home/asia
ruawake
I can appreciate you are speaking from a rural/regional POV but the vast majoriyt of travel demand (over 85% of population and trips) is in major cities. In those cases PT is viable for over 50% of trips (work, shopping, education and recreation/personal business). In Australia no city gets near that, but it has been achieved elsewhere. So there is a great deal of room for improvement. My understanding of PT mode shares in Australian cities now is as follows:
Sydney 18-20% (hard to get uncensored recent reporting!)
Melbourne 12%
Brisbane/SEQ 10%/6%
Perth 6%
Adelaide 5%
Yoru example of trips to school is a case where behavious has changed as you have said, but could be changed back, to the health benefit of the kids (they would be better off walking to the school or walking to a bus stop). So it is not a valid argument to do nothing.
Cost wise PT does cost more than building roads, but only for government, who do not pay for us all buying a second car. Transport is a classic case in recent decades of where governments have saved themselves $5 but cost the community $10 (for the real numbers you can multiply that by billions). Sydney’s dodgy PPP road deals and their tolls well demonstrate this problem.
Excellent Dio – I apologize as I haven’t had the time right now to read back through comments. The fact that I hate all these people visiting/staying in my house right now doesn’t help
so thanks for that.. I reckon the Ruddsters good for 20% – 1990’s style
My daughter (disabled) and I (carer) use public transport every day. We walk 600 m to a major bus stop and there is a train station 1800 m away. There is an infrequent (hourly, 6 days pw) bus by our door if we chose to use it.
I decided not to replace our car after it was written off (rear-ended while stopped at traffic lights) over 12 months ago. The insurance payout is still in the bank, and I now have a full time job, so I can afford to replace it.
If there is an efficient public transport system, sensible planing (where you put childcare centres, shopping centres etc relative to the transport and each other is important), then many people won’t need a car. We just haven’t realised it yet.
polyquats
It’s hard to make that happen here in OZ. So much land. We can go out forever… It’s not pretty or a good thing, but it is easy to do and cheap….the space is there
That’s the problem
SNIP: Unconstructive comment deleted – The Management.
It is true our cities can still expand furher, and regrettably our more inept state governments are still allowing that to happen. Yet there are still very large areas of suburbia that already exist and can be serviced by public transport but are not, or at least note adequately. Consider the following list:
- NW Sydney
- Sunshine Coast, Qld
- outer west Melbourne
All have populations in the hundreds of thousands, no passenger rail service and often infrequent buses. If we are not going to build adequate infrastructure any more, then we should at least restrict the development to within a km or two of where it is adequate. They do that with land use in a few Canadian cities and it works.
Spam Box,
I live in Brisbane.
I’d be very surprised, but pleased, if Rudd goes for 20% (based on 1990). That would match the EU.
I too would be surprised, but pleased, at 20%. I’ve detected a subtle shift in the body language of relevant ministers which makes me think the government is going to squib this and it’s going to be more like 5% dressed up as 10%.
Hope I’m wrong. With the EU committed to 20% anything less from us is going to send a very wrong message to less interested countries.
The problem with being a pessimist is that you’re even more depressed when proven right, and on GW I’m very pessimistic about humanity treating the problem seriously soon enough to do any good.
We find out tomorrow don’t we?
Senator Wong will be at the press club.
polyquats
yeah my bad, I didn’t think (rushed tonight)
I live in a small *8000pop* coastal town. 2 local bus’s a day (2klm route) is 4 klm’s to the nearest stop. There’s one bus to take the dialysis patients which leaves at 7.30am to go 275klm – then it comes back the same 275klm arriving at 9.00pm
3 times a week we do this
Rudd could cut emissions by a bucket load if he had the balls to go for Nuclear Energy…
I agree.
If the major parties gave their members a conscience vote, I think it would narrowly pass. More Liberals (by percentage) would vote for it though.
Everyone set your VCR / DVD recorders / TIVOs for ABC1, at 2:18 AM. They are showing The Locket (1946) http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0038700/
It is famous for featuring a flashback within a flashback within a flashback within a flashback within a flashback.
(I think that is the right number of flashbacks.)
Fortunately he’s got the brains not to go that way.
No why would Rudd want to cut emissions and stop coal fired power plants to save the environment, if he’s a greenie?
Don’t worry Glen! We will just rely on clean coal instead in 10 years! It will save us!
We just have to make LOTS and LOTS of Coca-Cola, so we have something to put all that CO2 into.
Glen
Actually going nuclear wouldn’t help reach our 2020 targets at all. The 15 years to build one would take us past 2020.
MF
5% dressed up as 10% would be seriously pathetic. We’d be in the Climate Change Deniers Club based on that. Even the US will do 5% or more. Obama actually believes in investing in renewable energy, something that Rudd has been very slow to embrace.
I love all this crap from the OO about “why should Oz lead the world?”. We are rated sixth bottom in the 60 or so developed countries. We’re at the back of the class, sitting next to the US. Tomorrow we’ll find out if we stay there.
My guess is that they will replicate the Queensland targets of ‘a national
greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of 60 per cent below our 2000 levels by 2050′.
I was just looking up some economic statistics (a statistics tragic?) and I found some excellent news for Glen, Malcom Turnbull and anyone else overly pessimistic about the Australian economy: the IMF rates us as one of only two major economies in the OECD (the other is Canada) not likely to go into recession next year. Most including UK, Germany and USA are already in recession. The IMF are foreasting growth to drop to 2.2% in Australia in 2009. Canada is forecast at 0.3; most other countres are expecting negative (-0.2 to -1.3). So according to the IMF, Asutralia is in the BEST position of the OECD countries. See Table 1 at
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/update/03/index.htm
I’m sure Malcom will be the first to contratulate Rudd and Swan!
MayoFeral @ 642
On GW pessimism – is there an identifiable threshold at which stage would you enter an ‘On The Beach’ last ever motor car race? That is to say, when would you give up worrying about the inevitability of it all and decide to live life to the full, while it lasts?
BTW, IMHO, 20% for some countries only is a fair bit too little, too late. See, for example:
http://fr.youtube.com/watch?v=5kzEVCMnHVI
Also, BTWk, Bishop’s line on this stuff is divorced from reality. She just doesn’t get it.
Socrates @ 652
Actually, impressive stats, but…
After the accuracy of last year’s IMF predictions, what confidence limits would you apply to this year’s predictions?
Yes but Dio, are we going to continue building coal fired power stations given that demand for energy is going to increase or are we going to have some balls and go Nuclear?
Boerwar, tomorrow will be a defining day for the Federal Liberals, all signs are that they will be confused, lost and totally irrelevant to the major political debate in Australia once the targets are announced. Big Business is gearing up for the change while the opposition pedals backwards. If the Tories haven’t bothered getting their act together on targets ready for tomorrow then the likelihood is they never will. The reaction from Bishop today was just more excuses for Liberal laziness on this defining issue.
Again, stop pretending that the choice is coal and nuclear.
You said nuclear had as low emissions as renewable. You were asked to point out your source for this. You said “I can’t be bothered”. Then other sources were shown to you demonstrating the “baseload” capabilities of renewables, their shorter implementation time and their significantly low emissions even when compared to nuclear. Either come up with sources to rebut those or hush.
On another topic, this ABC article has me puzzled:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/14/2446064.htm?section=justin
I thought Hamas won the elections, Fatah and the Israeli’s couldn’t hack it so they attacked/blockaded and then Hamas had to militarise the streets?
“Violently seized control” is an extremely narrow way of putting it.
Laurie Oakes statement about the words leadership and Costello surely being in the context of a joke was clever, but his statement about Turnbull being under pressure for ONE BAD Newspoll was not. EVERY Newspoll has been bad, the latest one being diabolical. It sure seems that the MSM is really giving Turnbull a free ride, when his latest ratings on PPM are approaching Nelson’s and the 2PP is worse
Oz, I’d have thought twelve years in Government and one year in Opposition would have been enough to produce a workable climate change position. I have yet to hear where these nuclear plants will be located and what mix of coal, nuclear and renewables is acceptable to the conservative parties federally. In short they are too busy doing nothing to attempt anything to progress the debate.
steve @ 656
LOL. What with there internal problems, every day is a ‘defining day’ for the Liberal Party. Their defining days are like the Zimbabwe dollar. (Around about $Z150,000 to $Au1 at the moment).
It will actually be a defining day for Australia, with the Rudd Government doing the defining.
Here’s hoping.
Regarding targets, I think the Government will end up going for 20% tomorrow. Because everyone’s expecting 5-15% and because we all think for some reason 20% is the “safe level” they’ll be lauded in the media.
It’ll be achievable and won’t damage the economy.
I have a funny feeling that will be the case too…
Steve, Rudd already has 2050 targets – 50%.
It will however damage the Opposition.
Oz @ 657
Hamas did take control violently. That is to say that went around killing people with guns. As you say, there was a bit of context to it, which the article does not report.
Israel let some of the surviving Fatah fighters through Israel and released them on the West Bank side. On the West Bank side the Fatah fighters have dominance and, at least some of the time, the Isrealis appear to want to keep it that way.
Gilad has apparently said there is no military solution. IMHO, he is right. Gaza is virtually a prison managed externally by Israel which has the military power to enforce decisions about the movement of people, goods and services into, and out of, Gaza. Israel routinely enforces collective punishment on the citizens of Gaza for the acts of individual Gazans and for the acts of Hamas.
While it remains that way, one of the chief products of Gaza will continue to be a murderous hatred of Israel.
If the solution is thought to be military, then Gaza will have to remain a prison forever. Of course, looked at from the Isreali perspective, the difficulty is: ‘If you have a tiger by the tail, and the tiger has murder in its eyes, how do you let go of the tiger?’
Everyone has different ideas about how it all started. The really difficult bit is to figure out how to stop it.
Boerwar
True teh IMF statistics have not been reliable in this crisis. Still, they use the same methodology oneacj country, so the comparative performance of Australia (best) is still valid.
Queensland’s latest figures place it with a projected growth well ahead of the National figures.
http://www.treasury.qld.gov.au/knowledge/docs/annual-reports/2007-08/index.shtml
Boerwar, I’m not denying Hamas is a violent organisation who kills a lot of people. And I sort of don’t want to bring up an Israel/Palestine debate. I mean if we can get fired up about nuclear power, what’s going to happen with this?
I was just wondering if I had things wrong or whether the ABC was just being lazy when they were neglecting that Hamas won the elections and then had acts of war declared on them by their neighbours, international superpowers and the losing party.
will probably be a overly complicated formula in various stages for various industries while doing a 3.5 twist with pike.
score: 8.5
rudd in speedos. ewwwwwwww
Oz @ 668
They were being lazy.
Zommbie, another Knowledge Nation you reckon? I would have expected the target to be printed as a large 20% on the back of a postage stamp, just so the opposition was in no doubt as to how simple the process can be.
I reckon Penny Wong or whoever makes the announcement should get up at the National Press Club tomorrow, say the target is X% by 2020. Are there any questions?
“Kevin Rudd will unveil the carbon pollution reduction scheme in Canberra today, committing Australia to cuts in greenhouse gas emissions of between 5 and 25 per cent by 2020.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24799882-601,00.html
What the hell does that mean.
zombie mao, lin @ 673
Oh, oh
Looks like the Europeans may have flubbed it. I was wondering how they were going to get Poland into the cart… The answer appears to be: lower the cart to about 4% of ground level but raise the sides of the cart so that it looks like it is actually 20% above ground level. Next step is to brag about it so the citizens who care are dudded and then do a bit of blustering about to try to get the rest of the world to jump to a real 20%.
Looks like we are going to have to rely on the Crisis to fix the problem, because the politicians certainly aren’t.
steve @ 672
If the answer is: X% = 25% plus or minus 20%, what is the question?
Steve @ 672 Oops, my bad, the equation should have been something like:
X% = 0%, plus between 5% and 25%.
Even Julie Bishop should be happy with that one.
More info from the Herald:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/billions-to-ease-carbon-burden/2008/12/14/1229189446253.html
Penrith Beach, here we come.
has glen karked it ?
sorry he hasn’t
Juliem – and the message with the shoes “its a farewell kiss, you dog!” I wonder what Bush’s popularity rating is in Iraq?
JulieM @ 679
For a second the humane impulse triumphed and I was tempted to feel sorry for Bush, but only for just a very, very small second.
Then I remembered the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi dead and injured, the years of deprivation for Iraqi children, the 2-4 million Iraqis displaced from their homes and/or their country, and I thought,
‘D*mn, he missed.’
Boerwar
Posted Sunday, December 14, 2008 at 11:19 pm | Permalink
MayoFeral @ 642
On GW pessimism – is there an identifiable threshold at which stage would you enter an ‘On The Beach’ last ever motor car race? That is to say, when would you give up worrying about the inevitability of it all and decide to live life to the full, while it lasts?
I already do that, plus I don’t think anyone alive today is going to see the end, though the young will likely face horrendous challenges.
I guess the ‘give up’ point will be around 2015. By then even the most skeptical skeptic should be in no doubt that GW is the greatest threat we’ve ever faced. If that doesn’t cause all nations to take united action with very deep CO2 cuts then you’d have to wonder what will.
Sadly, my reading of history leaves me with little hope that they will. I keep going back to the people that cut down the last trees on Easter Island knowing full well that they were condemning their civilization to a slow death because without timber to repair and build boats they would eventually be unable to catch the fish they needed to survive, or to escape. But they hacked them down anyway. Unfortunately, I don’t believe we are any wiser or less greedy than them.
I wonder what Bush’s popularity rating is in Iraq?
Considerable less than Saddam’s I suspect.
I find it incredible that 20% of Americans still believe he’s done a good job! Makes you wonder what he’d have to do to loose their support. Admit an affair with bin Laden who he’s been hiding in the WH basement? Come out as an atheist card carrying communist? All of the above?
Phillip Coorey gives the fibs some well deserved stick :
and
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/glory-without-power-coalition-versus-reality/2008/12/14/1229189440009.html
Any person of faith that has studied popology knows that Iraqi journalist was channelling the book of Elvis.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmkNCpfgQzI
The shoe scene takes the cake for the funniest scene for 2008, just at the tail end of the year. Imagine the funniest home video prizes this guy will get- all over the world
I’m still here Gromit…
Hopefully the security people beat the living sht out of this fool!
Mayo
Sorry to say but I partly share your pessimism. I think that humanity will eventually respond to GW in an effective way, but only after it has advanced far enough to kick us out of our complacency. Given the time lags involved, by then it will be too late to stop millions of deaths, whether from storms, flooding, famines, sea level rise or wars caused by any of the former. Arguably Darfur fits that category now.
Interesting to compare the cultures at different organisations hit by the same circumstances. Toyota is in far better shape to respond to teh GFC than GM adn Ford, but it is still taking losses. So whats their first response? Cut the salaries of their executives!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/15/2446164.htm?section=justin
That is on top of the fact that Japanese corporate executive salaries are on average less than half of Oz executive salaries to begin with, and much less than US execs. No wonder their workers are more loyal than ours. And to think that some management consulting idiots claim its because of their QA systems!
C’mon Glen…it wasn’t like throwing tomatoes at Fraser. The man has proven himself an idiot.
I dont think Bush is an idiot but i do think he has made some unforgivable errors in office…Fraser deserved the Tomatoes because he really is a fool and a two timing fool at that lol!
Ooo Glen just because Fraser left the dark side of the force and has come to join the Jedi, it doesn’t mean you have to insult the man. By the way everyone are we still part of the coalition of the muppets, or did we lose our membership once howard was rejected?
I agree with the comments of others that today will be a defining day for the LNP. With as important a policy as the emissions target which will influence all of us and especially business and the economy for the next 10 years, I think it’s absolutely pathetic that the LNP don’t even have the beginnings of a policy.
Whatever Rudd comes up with, he at least will have thought it through and chosen the evidence for his case and reasoning. Turnbull will have NOTHING. Yet again he will demonstrate his irrelevance to Australia by getting up and whingeing at Rudd no matter what. All Australians know he will do this. As Kate from triple j yelled at him during an interview just before the last election “You aren’t giving us any targets, you aren’t giving us any plans, Mr Turnbull YOU’RE GIVING US NOTHING!”
I disagree with Adam when he says that the first year in Opposition should be a policy free zone and I think today will show that.
No Rudd is just hoping not to have to sign an agreement so he can bring them all home from Iraq…
Bush showed he is good at ducking!! maybe he could take up cricket!! Bush would make a better batsman than Howard would have made bowler!!
Rudd has decided to give the address to the Press Club himself, instead of Penny Wong. It doesn’t sound like Rudd is going to go soft on CC from this. MayoFeral and I might well be wrong. I normally hate being wrong but I’d be very pleased this time.
“It will be a scheme that enables Australia to reduce its carbon pollution so we can tackle climate change.”
Lefty E who posts here pointed out on Larvatus Prodeo that in his opinion he doesn’t believe the ALP will come up with stronger targets until they start losing seats to The Greens. I think part of that may be wishful thinking but he makes a point.
Surely the government would consider the fact they have a number of seats within an attackable of The Greens? I know letter pages in newspapers are hardly scientific barometers of public opinion but every single one on the topic of climate change in today’s Herald were scathing of the government’s low targets and failure to implement promised environmental policies.
The government and Rudd aren’t stupid or naive, they’re extremely clever political operators. They must believe that they have enough political capital to withstand any attacks on their target levels and commitment to acting on climate change.
*Within an attackable range of The Greens.
Diogenes
Kev might just be being a gentleman protecting Penny in case there are any mad greenies throwing boots because the target isn’t 100% by tomorrow!
vera
Penny Wong doesn’t come across as someone who would ever need protecting. I think she’s catch the boot and throw it back!
Oz
Rudd can afford a weakish target and just lose a few seats to the Greens in the Senate, with the Libs losing just as many probably. He’d have to really wimp out, say with a 5% target, to put any Reps seats in the firing line of The Greens.
Vera, good idea.
See if you can spot me on TV.
Nah, Diogenes I disagree. A lot of Australians seem to be pretty cluey about climate change and we need to do. Anything less than 20% will be seen as a cop out and less than 15% will be the clincher. If people won’t change their vote for <15% then they won’t at all.
Diogenes, you made me laugh, I got a picture of Penny at the Press Club chucking boots and hitting the Poision Dwarf in the head. lol.
What’s the bet there will be a shoe throwing maniac at the next Rudd public appearance?
The Young Libs are organising a spontaneous act of frustration and contempt as we speak ….
What a dream that would be!
Shoe throwing could be the new pie chucking…
Fulvio
Nah, Libs only do stuff like that (and letterbox drops) in the dark of night so no one can see them, cowards the lot of them.
“I normally hate being w ron g”
You’re gonna hav to stop hating yourself , and everyday You ar wrong…..again
Today should see detail announsement of RET scheme from July 2009 and ETS from July 2010 , and high “indicative” targets with some linkage to Copenhapen meeting late next year
“I disagree with Adam when he says that the first year in Opposition should be a policy free zone”
You ar wrong…..again Oppositions after long Govt periods usualy hav changed Leaders , factions open & ar policyed out , first year is how come we lost & squabble
“today will be a defining day for the LNP.”
You ar wrong…..again LCP only ‘policy’ will be wait on rest of world and copy them In time they’ll refine tht abit , but not enough for mine
Are you just stirring the possum? Or are you really advocating cruel and unusual punishment for what even Bush described as a free expression of opinion?
Does that mean Joe Hockey’s been reshuffled?
I agree with Dio; hard to believe Rudd would want to take the replies if he thought the target would draw a lot of fire. Ministers can be sacrificed but PMs less so. That makes me think recent rumours have just been expectations management to make sure that nobody is dissappointed with 20-25% and would have demanded 40%.
I see its a slow morning!! Look today the biggest loser will be the Greens for from this moment forward the debate will be about the Government having a target and bring all together to make it happen, from that the issue will come down to the economic costs and the associated socal impact of increased energy bills.
Today PM Rudd will be fronting the press club for he knows that its these times that will make outbreak his Government and with due respect to Sentator Wong he is the leader and knows that the next election could well be decided by this very issue.
Today the Greens are on a hiding to nothing for they will have a choice to offer support or do there normal routine of opposing and if they choose to oppose then the question will need asking just what planet are they on!
The Liberals are in a similar position to the Greens except they are more known for having an economic platform.
Plausible scenario, Socrates.
Mexicanbeemer your post only makes sense if you replace every instance of the word “Greens” with “Liberals”.
Oz!! Rudd has already wedged the Liberals over his thus far successful handling of the GFC, the Liberals have no credibility when it comes to climate change.
This debate will only help the Liberals if the Government makes a mess of the policy and it causes massive job loses and excessive increases in power bills.
I suspect the Governemnt if its performance with the GFC is anything to go by shoudl be able to get the balance right, that that turns out to be correct then its the Greens that could find themselves wedged.
A preemptive strike maybe?
Anything to stop the buggers from taking their clothes off again.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/digital-life/home-entertainment/articles/free-changeover-to-digital-tv/2008/12/14/1229189456934.html
mexicanbeemer, The Greens aren’t going to get “wedged”. Part of the reason (if not a significant part) of any potential higher targets is because the Government knows they need The Greens in the Senate.
Well said! Nothing will stop them now it’s summer =(
Unless they give them a new roof antenna as well, this whole thing is going to get ugly. Digital TV reception is shocking in plenty of areas. At least with analog you could still get a picture with a crap signal (albeit snowy). With a bad digital signal you just get nothing.
Oz!! that is true the ALP need the Greens and that is the wedge for if the Greens want to remain in control of the Senate they will need to play with the Government or play against the Government.
Do my eyes deceive me but has Senator Steven Conroy actually looks like something right!!
I presume you’re talking about this:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/15/2446285.htm
A good day for all Australians.
Dario the answer might well be yes
It might be very good politics for the government to acknowledge that the target had been revised after talking to the Greens and that the financial impact would be less than the bonus payment already given to families…
I’m literally counting down the minutes till 12:30.
Do we want to talk about how Rudd’s going to convince Fielding and Xenophon? Or is that too much of a headache.
Ron
What ETS target will you be happy with today?
On the other two points, I realise that the first year in Opposition is usually navel gazing but I think they should come up with a policy or two, just to show they are relevant and doing something. And I also realise the LNP will have nothing except wait for the rest of the world but today they will be shown to have let the rest of the world pass them by.
The issue of the polcy V politics of the debate will be played out over the next few months and years and today is a day that the ALP can either own the climate change debate or make a mess of it
Look, regarding policy vacuums and being in Opposition, in normal circumstances I would agree with Ron. But this is not a normal circumstance.
Accuse me of hyperbole if you wish, but this is akin too the Opposition not having a policy when it came to Vietnam, for example. It’s an extremely important issue and it’s extremely important that the Opposition party in this country do something credible for the benefit of all Australians.
I previously said that I expected a 15% outcome, only going to 20% if other countries came on board. I would have been dissapointed at that but not surprised in the current financial environment. However after reading a few things over the weekend I am more optimistic. The current downturn will make it easier to meet targets, because exponential growth in emissions in developing markets and our own resources sector is slowing down. They are large contributors to our total emissions. Hence I woudl say we shoudl commit to 20%; going up to 25% when other nations come on board. That would be affordable and achievable IMO.
Mr X is a climate change pragmatist. I can’t see him not supporting a reasonable target. Dunno about Fielding.
I think it will have to be. The sheer ’sprawl’ of the major cities in Australia means that new digital-specific antennas are going to be the only option for a very large section of the population.
Telstra a such a joke. They lodged a non-compliant bis from the start. Imaging how much bleating they would have been doing if one of the other bidders had done the same.
Is there a betting ring for the percentage. why is everyone going for the round figures? what about 17%, 18% or 19%
Rudd is supposed to be in Kununurra today too. busy boy.
http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/200812/s2446359.htm
19% would be interesting…
Oz , is that Malcolm’s PPm you talking about?
Should we bet on which will be the higher figure Vera? Who will go over 20%, Rudd or Turnbull?
Wait a minute , Telstra reely put in a non bid …ie bid conditonal on Telstra not being broken up Now th Libs made no decision on th whole tele issue because of that blackmail Conroy/Govt called Telstra’s buff
So the Government have rolled Telstra!!
Gee someone should get that senator Conroy a beer
As Conroy’s spokesman pointed out, the decision came from the independent expert panel.
I agree its a welcome improvement from Sen Conroy. Telstra will never reform if they think they can keep holding the govenrment hostage.
Oz
Sounds like they picked an independant panel that was actually independant! Still, there have been times in the past when such advice has been ignored as too difficult, so its still good to see the decision made and announced on its merits.
Yes, I agree. Conroy could have disagreed if he wanted too, there’s a lot of leeway in the panel.
It’s a good decision.
As an opposition how can they credibly criticise the government’s policy and argue a case against it if they don’t have a policy themselves? When I hear the opposition spokesperson arguing against the government’s policy I invariably find myself asking, “Well, what would you do?” I still don’t know what they believe the solution to anything is.
Gary
Yes if you didn’t know better you would think they had governed for 11 years based on nothing more than political expediency, some anti-union ideology, and the results of a few focus groups.
What Rudd is faced with today is politics , policy , Garnaut recom of initial 10% and Coppenhaggen Everyones gonna concentrate on one figure , a target when reel ballgame is other 2 matters i mentioned in #708 , nanouncintg RET and ETS dates
now EU ar only econamic block fair dinkum , plus Japan Forget rest Riussia , obama , China and India (but later 2 will ove if (rightly treated as dev Countrys with initial concessions) EU target is 20% so talking plus 25% that Greens will do is stupid
I expect Rudd to balanse those 4 factors in first para , with indicative targets nexus to coppenhaggen , with upper limit of 15 to 20% , plus a committment not withstanding…but do not forgot substanse in blogs today.. RET and ETS Thats th reel oil for CC that Greens and Libs dare not practicol detail address linked to outcomes , and will not
You guys ar not listening to th Oppositions policy , they do hav one….agree with Coppenhappen late 2009 , lets not be in front of World to our econamic peril , but they know Coppenhaggen late 2009 is unlikely to be target tough or date binding…so they do hav a policy …just thats its no good
Walked past TV on ABC news just now and thought i heard them say target is to start at 5%? has there been an announcement allready?
What are their targets Ron?
No, that’s still speculation I think
Holy shit.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/15/2446466.htm
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says Australia will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 5 per cent of 2000 levels by 2020
It’s 15% by 2020 if others sign up. Otherwise it’s only 5%. I win. It’s pathetic.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24801284-5006301,00.html
5% of 2000? I could do that by turning off my lights.
The white paper can be found here with summaries:
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/whitepaper/
Actually MayoFeral wins. He went for 5% by 2020 based on 1990 levels. It’s even lower than that. It’s even lower than Garnaut asked for. What a disgrace.
The hard greenies are going to hate it (they vote green now you would think). The people who support CC but are not dogmatic about it (majority I would suspect) will see this as a good compromise solution given the economic circumstances we find ourselves in. While the Libs will hate it because it takes the wind out of their political sails.
Who will the hardline greenies turn to the next election, the Libs? They would put it off indefinitely if they could.
does that mean that they have to make up 45% by 2050. that only leaves 30 years to do it
No, Gary. The majority of Australians didn’t want any backdown due to the GFC.
sorry that’s 55% by 2050
I have to say I’m dissappointed in that too. With the economic slowdown 5% is bugger all. A few voluntary behaviour change program will achieve that. In fact, this means there is really nothing to compensate.
This is just wierd
Gary sorry but this is a total cave in to the coal industry and/or the NSW state government desperate for its revenue. This is an unfortunate way to end the year if thats Rudd’s final word on GW.
I tend to agree with Gary
It’s smart politics, the “Howard battlers” will be happy, they get a target that after comphensation won’t hurt their budget. Pensionsers and lower income families get 2.5% increase to cover costs. Miners and business happy, jobs safe.
Can’t see too many main stream votes lost there.
People who switch to Greens have a choice , accept the possible 15% by 2020 or preference Libs 2nd next election out of spite and end up with nothing.
The green groups would have bitched no matter how high the cut (that Milne woman has turned me off the Greens well and truly)
It’s hard to imagine the Libs will be able to offer less than 5%. With friends like these…
That’s right vera, climate change should only be confronted to the extent that it doesn’t lose Labor any votes.
Oz at number 754 wrote:
On the surface of it, this may be correct (for now).
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/money-is-no-object-to-save-planet/2008/08/30/1219516797991.html
Sydney Morning Herald, 31 August 2008
However, that survey (and I’m sure there are others like it) was taken before the GFC began to really bite. Think forward a couple of years (election time). By then economic conditions may be a more pressing, immediate concern for many people. Never underestimate the potential for people to revert to unmasked self-interest when it comes to the crunch.
As much as anyone I hate the self-interest that comes at the expense of global sustainability. Love it or loathe it, though, it’s a fact of human nature. Kevin has to play the political survival game as well here don’t forget.
An interesting aspect that even if there is no international agreement and
we do the 5% cut by 2020 then this still requires us to make a 27% cut per person on 1990 levels.
This would make us one of the world leaders ahead of Obama’s touted return to 1990 levels (which is a 25% per capita cut) and the EU’s 24% planned per capita cut.
You can see the summary at
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/whitepaper/summary/index.html
Gary
I’m not a hardline Greenie and I’m absolutely disgusted. The EU promised a decrease of 20% by 2020 based on 1990 levels. Rudd is promising a ZERO % decrease by 2020 based on 1990 levels (not surprisingly he used by 5%b based on 2000 levels to pretend he was doing something). It might be smart politics coz it gives the Libs nowhere to go but it’s irresponsible and pathetic policy/
Unless they plan to beat their target in some way…
Dr Good
Climate change isn’t caused by per capita changes. It’s caused by total carbon emissions. If we want parity using per capita changes, we need to reduce our consumption by about 80% in the next 10 years to be the same as the rest of the world. You can’t have it both ways.
itep
Just being real, not saying it’s right but that’s the way it is. People say they are for CC but ask them to make the sacrifice with cold hard earned cash and it might be a different story. All the Libs need is a good scare campaign aimed at the hip pocket and mass job losses and the one term wonder Rudd story could become fact. then we get nothing.
Better to start off slow not scare horses and lift target in a couple of years when people realise there is nothing to be afraid of. By the time Copenhagen comes round the WFC will hopefully be over the worst, confidence will be up and we could well match the Europeon target of 20%.
So is it 5% or 15%, or a sliding scale depending on the rest of the world?
“You guys ar not listening to th Oppositions policy , they do hav one”
What are their targets Ron?
Had you not omitted th rest of th para , th answer was there They ar waiting on Coppenhaggen late 2009 meeting figures You also excluded my conclusion , they hav a policy…just thats its no good
It wasn’t “hard greenies” who voted for bold leadership on climate change last November Gary @752. It was middle class Australia. This is a truly pathetic cave-in to fossil-fuel and related industry lobbyists, who, if they had their way, would be content to protect their short term profitability by doing jack all to address the destructive status quo. Thousands of respected scientists around the world are crying out for for 25-40% emissions cuts by 2020 to avoid catastrophic climate change. Ross Garnaut himself called for cuts twice as deep as the quasi-cuts announced today.
This is not leadership. Rudd had a chance to define himself on climate change. To transcend the petty and mediocre lowest common denominator appeasement and weasel words that so characterised Howard’s approach to policy development and problem solving.
This is the policy of a weak scaredy cat, who reckons he can “get the balance right” by effectively doing nothing to seriously tackle climate change.
Pathetic.
Diogenes
I agree that climate change depends on total emissions (net of tree growing and other ways oftaking carbon out of the atmosphere).
I also agree that most of the world’s people emit far less than the average Australian
(and have been responsible for far less historically).
However, reduction plans in the short term have to take account of vastly different economies across the world.
Thus to some extent we can be compared to residents of the US, Japan and the EU.
If our government can ensure that every Australian is going further than every person in those countries then we are at least moving in the right direction.
Dario
It’s a sliding scale between 5% and 15%.
Dr Good
I’m saying this it is highly disingenuous to introduce the per capita target when it is convenient ie allowing for our population growth being more than Europe, but ignoring our per capita emissions when it is inconvenient ie when comparing us to 99% of the world who have much lower emissions per capita than us.
90% free permits to emissions intensive industries…
I feel physically ill.
He’s actually encouraging invesment in high emissions industries by giving them a bigger break (90%) then lower emitting technologies (60%).
Grattan was right. He keeps saying that he’ll ge attacked from the “right” and the “left”.
The truth being that the Minerals Council got 5%, which is what they wanted.
Don’t stand there and talk about the Great Barrier Reef, you’ve consigned it to death.
Rudd must be banking on the Libs and Nats voting for it in the Senate. There’s no way the Greens and Mr X will vote for it. It’s a wedge. Johnny Howard is alive and well and is still PM.
How was the heckler, by the way. What a legend.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/big-emission-cuts-ruled-out-20081215-6ymf.html
So the government taxes the industry who pass those costs onto consumers and the government gives that money straight back to the industry.
In effect, this is nothing more than a tax on Australian’s to further subsidise ancient and environmentally damaging industries.
Any specifics on how the scale would slide though? On a whim, or are there triggers?
Lenore Taylor from The Australian just asked that exact question and he dodged it completely.
The “sliding scale” is fluff. Its 5%, no more. Putting in the “Up to 15%” is his attempt to appease people who want more significant cuts.
ffs, surely he would have been prepared for that
Not promising really is it
Dr Good
We are NOT doing more thant the rest of the (developed) world. Starting from a high emission, inefficient position it is easier for us to make savings than Europe, yet they are going further, having already committed ot cuts over 1990, when we were sticking to our 8% concession under Kyoto. Given that a lot of our “reductions” to date have been achieved by ending land clearing practices in Qld that were unsustainable for other reasons anyway we are doing SFA. The only beneficiary from this outcome is the Greens. They will continue to grow.
The GFC is not excuse. Despite the fear campaign it actually makes it EASIER to meet targets. Demand for emission intensive indsutries (eg aluminium smelting) is declining, while there is a need for investmetn which can be channeled into things like wind and solar hot water. I say again, this announcemnet is a cave in to coal companies.
Now I guess we know why Rudd was doing the press club and not Wong… so he couldn’t be accused of hiding out
My post #743 was completely acurate
Thats what Rudd did announse because of th 4 factors I listed Now Gary and other Labor suporters your defense of Rudd has been too soft Th rational reasons ar there , and reely should be embraced and defended …15% is on table for Coppenhaggen …and its a negotiating fiugure remember that can go up
As for th dreamy pseuodo’s , yous were repeatedly warned in dozens of posts over 7 months that th USA was key to targets…and that your suport for a NON Kyoto ratifying suporting Kyoto candidate in Obama would WEAKEN CC targets discussions for Coppenhaggen….this is th “price”….its th “price” of your suport …its called Geo politcs with US ratification Kyoto (or lack of) leadership
So don’t come sanctimonous about pathetic ….Obama was pathetic in not suporting Kyoto , and STILL (quote patheticaly) has no 2020 target !!!! Rudd does
Obama patheticaly with no 2020 target , so Garnaut’s general advice was corect , so is Rudd
Oz 777
Thanks for that link. after reading it I know how democrats must have felt seeing Clinton’s pardon list.
As I said – under this model there was virtually nothing to compensate the coal companies for anyway but we did. Mining company welfare anyone?
I have to say it’s heartening seeing people on this blog, who are generally Labor supporters, see this for what it is – pathetic.
Politically this will see a primary vote move from ALP to the greens but then it should come back again on 2PP. are there any seats fedreally where the greens are in serious contenion against labor?As for the senate obviously where labor elected 5th will be seriously in trouble
That’s exactly what it is. They already get billions in subsidies now they’ll get billions more from regular Australians through something dressed up as a “Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme”.
Centuar, there’s Tanner’s seat in Melbourne and possibly Sydney which looks extremely safe for Plibersek but if The Greens outpoll the Libs it’ll look very different. Same with Albanese in Grayndler.
In the Senate I think The Greens will get seats in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.
They ought to call it the “Mining Shareholders Debt Reduction Scheme”. Someone should go through the parliamentary records and see which cabinet ministers have shares in coal mining companies or power plant operators. Fairly safe to bet that nobody had shares in Origin or any of the big wind farm operators.
Greens call it for what it is.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/15/2446577.htm
Look at this tool:
If the ACCI business union is crying about the bar being set too high, while the left cries about it being too low, the Liberals will be nicely wedged indeed, given how they seem to be beholden to the business union movement.
Senate’s going to rough going now…
Except their crying is totally feigned
To all the hardline Labor apologists out there (Ron I’m looking at you), please ask yourself two questions.
Could Rudd have possibly done less, given his election commitments?
What would you be saying if Howard won and Turnbull was announcing a 5% emissions cut by 2020 (based on 2000 levels) with huge subsidies to the coal industry?
Tanner went 2PP with bandt 55 to 45%, albanese too far ahead, but plibersek in trouble. the greens have to make up 5000 votes on the libs to be in the game
I’ve been embarrassed to be Australian for the last 11 years, so I suppose another 11 years shouldn’t be too hard.
I welcome the Governments announcement that it will continue to stay true to its blue collar vote!! I’m willing to accept the slight increase in energy bill, as for those who want bigger cuts I remind you that this needs an International solution, I also remind you all that this planet of ours will forever have its climate changing, this planet has been hotter and colder and will do so in the future.
Why are we so willing to gutter our economy just so we can feel confortable running the air-con. yes climate change is a fact but it needs a senseable approach inwhich we invest in renewable engery, Solar has been around for over 50 years, and we all know about Nuclear energy.
Yes I know the rich greenie will want bigger cuts, just as the we all want lower taxes, better hospitals, smarter school leavers etc. In this world we need to accept that we cannot have everything and today the Rudd Government has laid out a clear policy of at least 5% with higher targets upon an international agreement, I say this is good sound policy.
Lindsay Tanner will hold Melbourne sure the Greens may improve their position in the Senate and will improve in the House but they are someway off winning any seats in the Reps.
I would Image that the ALP can hold Sydney!! the Greens need to take votes of the Liberals and with Turnbull being more popular amoungst small L Liberals than Howard ever was I would imagine the Liberal primary vote may stay at currant levels in that seat.
I really don’t think some of you get it. What good is introducing a scheme that has bugger all chance of getting past the Senate and every chance of making this a one term government, thus bringing in a government that is far less committed to the cause? This is a chance to gradually get into the business of addessing climate change and maintaining a government that is committed to going in harder in the future. Start with small steps, bring the crowd with you then progress to larger steps.
I’m actually surprised there are intelligent people here who don’t see that or want to see that.
Diogenes “To all the hardline Labor apologists out there (Ron I’m looking at you)”
You cann’t even appologise for th pathetic Obama …because he does not even hav a 2020 target !! (nor does he suport Kyoto ratification either , thats where World Leadership & econamics start)
Yous rusted on Obamaphiles hurt CC , and you’ll wear it
Its great that Rudd , unlike th pathetic Obama , has put 15% on table to negotiate Further he put an ETS on table today And some of you other panicking guys must not hav read th Green Paper in july on ETS , white announsed today There is actualy an ETS from July 2010 with bands and initial compensations for industry transitions Suggest you read it , its all about CC & th biggest econamic change in 20 years , too much knee jerk reactions
797 – I agree 100% mexicanbeemer.
Mexicanbeemer I think you and others are missing a lot of the facts when it comes to climate change.
We can’t just say “Yeah it’s a good policy, gets the balance right, I’ll pay a few bucks”.
That doesn’t make any sense. It’s not about “balance”. There will not be any jobs in the future if we don’t do something right now.
I hope you’re right GB. But in the meantime, I have sent of emails to Kevin, Penny and my local member (Perrett) expressing my disappointment
Yes he does, so did John McCain. Go do some reading Ron.
Stop being a moronic Ruddophile Ron.
I totally agree.
Can anyone remember the CFMEU & the Timber Workers in Tasmania giving Howard a Hero’s welcome during the 2004 Federal Election when Latham proposed a ban on Logging of Old Growth Forests ?? I can well imagine Turnball doing the same thing this time around.
Baby steps, people, baby steps.
5%… even I think that’s poor.
Definately won’t lose any votes to the Liberals over it though.
This is a 5% to 15% reduction in 15 years, with a huge push for renewable energy. So actual reduction by 2020 should be greater than the 15%, also the 15% is a flexible figure depending on Copenhagen in December 09.
Rudd has kept another one of his promises.
hey Ron
i heard Kev say that Oil’s target at present is 0% by 2020
seems his adoring fans are fine with that but wanna put the boot into the Ruddster for 5-15%
polyquats -If you listened to Rudd carefully his intention is to go harder down the track. You can’t pull up your pants if you haven’t got them on and that is what this whitepaper is all about. At the moment Australia is not wearing any CC pants. We need to at least get them around our ankles first.
I’m sure many will exercise the same right plyquats but I’m equally sure there will be those expressing the opposite opinion to you.
#796 Diogenes
Are you just a one-issue Australian?
Today was about PM Rudd taking ownership of the climate change debate, he has set sn easy short term target while holding out the carrot for a higher target if an Internation agreement can be created, this is smart politics.
Sure some may want more but lets recall the objective here is too acheive several things
1) Too carry the people, making larger gains down the road earier to acheive.
2) Neutalise the issue politically in terms of making Turnbulls position harder
3) Ensuring that the first steps don’t wreck the economy, if this policy was allowed to wreck the econmy two things would happen, the people would reject any future reductions and the ALP would be back in opposition.
4) The Government can now focus on obtaining an Internation solution, if that can be done then Rudd will be seen as an Internation statement, enhancing his poition politically and strenghten Australias position both economically and politically.
Politically, this is a smart move by Rudd.
He can only win votes by moving to the right on an issue like the ETS. The nature of our political system is that Green voters who don’t like his ETS ultimately have to make a choice – vote for the 5% ETS (Labor) or vote for no ETS (Liberal). Seems like a simple choice IMHO…
Socrates
I agree that we were lucky to have a special 108% target and able to include the
fact of stopping the completely obscene Qld land clearing practices in that.
I did not want to suggest that Australia has been doing its fair share already: it has
done virtually nothing until now.
However, the figures in the white paper are for per capita reductions against the 1990 emissions and they say that with the CPRS we are aiming for a 34% per capita reduction and the EU is only aiming for a 24% on 1990 levels (and apparently that includes a lot of imported offsets from Africa).
Certainly we are bad polluters and will have to go much further soon after 2020 if not before.
And, Diogenes, I agree that one should not be inconsistent about when to use per capita figures and when not. I just think that we should always use per capita figures
and we have to accept that thus we are some of the worse polluters in the world and have the furthest to go in the medium term in reducing our pollution.
But I still say it is interesting that the CPRS will head us in the right direction in making some of the biggest unilateral per capita cuts yet announced in the world.
Vera,
I believe that’s 0% of 1990. The USA will start from 2000.
So much for the ‘greatest moral issue facing the nation’. What a joke.
I think the problem many of us have with it is covered in that sentence right there. His ‘intention’. I know it was likely that the scheme would start of low and ramp up, but without specifics as to the nature of that ramp up it all seems a bit weak.
Yeah that might have made sense 20 years ago, but there isn’t time for “baby steps”. Rudd said he would take leadership on the issue but he’s done nothing but sabotage the talks at Pozdan and acquiesce to the coal lobby.
You still don’t seem to understand. If we don’t reduce our emissions by at least 25% by 2020, that’s it. Game over. No Murray Darling, no Great Barrier Reef. That’s the threshold. After that point, feedback starts kicking in and we’ll need to be virtually carbon neutral within 5 years after that once we cross that threshold. And even then immense damage will be caused.
Check out all the Bludgers chucking a dummy spit lol. You blokes just don’t know how to win?
Sure it’s about cleaning the planet, but we must act responsibly economically as well. It’s like running a Melbourne Cup. You blokes want to run the first 800m in Doncaster Hcp time, you will finish near last.
If you want to win, you must employ the right tactics, for the climate and economically relative to the rest of the world. I reckon even Bob Brown knows that deep down.
Dr Good, even those per capita emissions are a huge fudge because they’re based on population growth of 45% as well.
It seems just like that protester at the Press Club, some stopped listening after the 5% was mentioned.
Centre, how many jobs do you think rely on the GBR? On Australia’s rivers? How many lives rely on the current balance in the environment?
We would be abel to cut twice as much if we went nuclear.
As has already been pointed out, the lead time for nuclear is such that it wouldn’t give us any cuts before 2020.
We could cut three times as much and it wouldn’t make any difference depending on the rest of the world. We are doing what we should responsibly, and we are a player, which is much much more than what the Liberals ever did.
Yes Centre, but how should we expect the rest of the world to cut by 20-25% to save our resources when we can’t even be bothered too?
Yes, the billions of dollars the government is giving to aluminium and coal industries is much more than the Liberals ever gave.
Vera
“hey Ron
i heard Kev say that Oil’s target at present is 0% by 2020
Seems his adoring fans are fine with that but wanna put the boot into the Ruddster for 5-15%”
Cause Vera they they use double standards They locked themselves into suporting Obama whose WRITTEN policy does NOT say suport Kyoto mark 11 ratification (Edwards & Hillary’s written policys DO) and Obama has in POTUS contest made NO 2020 target at all !!! Despite my warnings that US leadership was crucial & that Obama’s and McCain’s) pathetic stanse would hurt CC Copenhaggen negotiations , and now its happened , they’ve got red faces
Also Vera , despite panic merchants here , CC action has started with th RET and ETS schemes BOTH solely aimed at reducing our Co2 emmissions IRRESPECTIVE of th rest of World What Rudd now will be dog is phoning th pathetic Obama and saying (rightly) yous ar th econamic power , thats where CC leadership has to come from…I’ve put up a variable target an RET and an ETC , and now Mr Obama instead of pretty yap time for you to put up
Rudd has done sensible thingy today , we ar not immune from rest of world globisation , and aint gonna get ripped of like we hav in lowering Tarrifs when US etc did NOT equitably..and today still rip off our farmers and exporters
Keep th faith Vera , its warranted…rudd has actual acted today for CC and wisely on CC and econamics for this Country with both th RET and ETS schemes and th variable negotiating target Forget th ex Obamaphiles and/or th nutty Greens and psedo Intelectuals here Some Labor people here jumped to quick to criticise Rudd’s wiseness to reduce CC
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24801858-12377,00.html
Scientists and economists panning the “cuts”. We shouldn’t even call them cuts. From now I refer to the “CPRS” has “coal industry handouts” because that’s what they are.
I hope Garnaut has the balls to come out and rip Rudd.
Garnaut said 10%, Rudd says half that. Garnaut says keep 25% open, Rudd says 15% max.
Hey Ron, I just turned off the TV. Looks like I’m acting for climate change!
HAHAHAHAHAHAH 5% HAHAHAHAHAAHA geee think of the cuts he could have announced had he announced we’d be going for Nuclear Energy lol!
Ahh Ruddster classic effort today!
Yup – that’s all you could do – imagine them . . . clean coal, sustainable nuclear, tooth fairy . . .
Glen is delirious with the thought of two more terms in opposition
Centaur…this is the best Rudd could offer even with encouraging renewables, we’d be able to cut emissions by far more if we had Nuclear Energy…
Anyway 5% cut is a conservative measure…something Howard probably would have done had he won in 2007….so it doesnt bother me as much as it will the left.
Yes softly softly does make sense, but he could have squeezed in a little more 7-10%. It will just make it harder to adjust later, although leaving the door open for 15% makes good sense.
Glen I’m not sure I’d be laughing if I was you. Where does this leave the Liberal Party? ROYALLY WEDGED LOL!
Amazing how what goes around comes around!
getting the ETS off the ground early I think is even more important than delaying it and having a bigger cut. It can be adjusted rejigged according to how it all transpires.
Clean coal is just drying the stuff before it gets burnt. There is some 40% reduction in CO2 emissions just from that. The other option is gas fired power stations. This alsois a product of brown coal, which will produce gas, water(used for industry) and coking coal.
Nuclear takes far too long to get going Glen and still has many risks.
No Turnbull and Hunt could say look if we pushed for Nuclear we could cut emissions by 15%-20% without any damage to the economy…thus wedging the ALP lol!
Diogenes
Actually MayoFeral wins.
I’d much rather have won a chook raffle!
People can dress this up as much as they want, but this is a sad day.
I’m amazed at the number of posts banging on about it not costing Labor votes. Hell, Rudd could achieve that by just throwing a party for everyone. Go and look at the Reef before it vanishes and then ask yourself how many votes is it worth? Check out Kakadu, and ask yourself the same question. Do you depend on the Murray-Darling Basis for your water, food or job? Well how many votes is all that worth to you?
The only thing about dying I’ve been unhappy about is not knowing how the human story unfolds. If I live as long as my Dad then I have quite a while left but I’m not expecting to make it to his nearly 101. I figure I have maybe 15 years tops. Long enough, I suspect, to have the answer before popping my clogs. Indeed, today has already confirmed my growing certainty that it’ll be Easter Island all over again.
If the government of a wealthy country that is the one most likely to come through the GFC in very good shape but has the most to loose from GW, which enjoys record poll ratings and has strong popular support for action on CC lacks the courage to do more than the p*ssweak effort announced today, then what hope is there that other less fortunate nations with indifferent governments and people will bite the bullet? Instead of sending them a strong message we’ve just handed them a golden excuse to continue doing SFA!
No Glen, pushing nuclear would give us a 0% cut until at least 2025.
It’s not really surprising though. The Government have been paving the way for doing nothing for a while now.
Oz
Australia’s population has already increased over 30% on 1990 levels and the rate of increase has increased. It seems 45% increase 1990 to 2020 is a reasable estimate.
I know that many readers have not seen arguments about per capita carbon emissions before but they are the important values to concentrate on as we aim for fair reductions over the next few decades.
Smart tactic today in my view. Rudd has wedged the “Liberals” rightly (pun intended).
By his moving to the right, it leaves the Liberals going where themselves, but further out to the right … to the territory occupied by the truly kooky rusted-on denialists. The Liberals won’t pick up any votes there that they don’t already have, and they will lose some of the small l liberals who still support them.
In a few years time, when it has come to be seen that the ETS was not the end of the world as the Liberals and denialists keep prophesying, by which time the world economy should have picked up, it will be easier to slipstream in more stringent targets, as the need determines.
We are a tiny emitter compared to the rest of the world. If we aggressively cut emissions and the largest polluters did not follow suit, our cost of living would increase substantially for no benefit. What a quick way to get back on the opposition benches. And what was the real coalition policy, go nuclear with no benefits to the climate for zonks of years.
As I said before, you have got to know how to win!
Sounds like a bunch of excuses and wisful thinking to me. It’s not going to happen. The Government will roll over to big business at every step of the way.
Would just like to register my absolute astonishment that Conroy could exclude Telstra from the NBN RFP process. Absolute idiocy from the minister.
No 843
Nuclear is the only way to go to get wholesale cuts in emissions. Alternatively, we can wait another 1000 years for solar to catch up.
Hell Generic Person
I’ve got you and Glen to my right and th FL/intellegentsia in th left uneconamic un reel world politc fringe zone
From MayoFeral at #838
“Do you depend on the Murray-Darling Basis for your water, food or job? Well how many votes is all that worth to you? ”
Yes we do.
Sort of. Well we would if there was water there to use.
There is no water there now so we have to buy it at $600 for for 20,000 litres.
Climate change [now what the hell is that?] has decreased our rainfall by about 20-30% per annum over the last 20-30 years and looks like getting worse, so our rain collection and storage is inadequate.
Its worth 2 votes to anyone but the ALP and the Coalition [and excluding the fundies too of course].
Which leaves …..who?
Its also worth whatever votes 2 persons gained for the ALP by putting in a thousand hours of effort into helping an ALP candidate at ‘07.
Thats not going to happen again.
GP, but you don’t think we need to cut emissions at all do you?
GP,
Disagree re the exclusion of Telstra. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of monopolist bast*rds.
I’m sure they will buy themselves back in to the game at some point (taking over one of the applicants is always a possibility). So your tears of disappointment for McGauchie and Sol will probably be wasted.
In the meantime, Conroy can bask in the glory of taking a bully down a peg or two in the interests of the Australian community. More power to his arm, I say!
Nucilear Power is not the answer, I hope and vote accordingly for never to have that dirty power.
Smartest thing anyone has done with Oz comms in 30 years.
The only way to achieve structural separation (since Howard completely arsed this up with the float) is to build a new structure.
Telstra monopoly – good riddance to bad rubbish.
Best decision he has made to date
GG, Telstra is not a monopolist. The only people seeking a monopoly is Optus Network Investments (new face of Terria), Axia and Acacia.
No 852
Possum, if a Telstra monopoly is bad rubbish, why is an Optus, Axia or Acacia monopoly so much better?
Silly logic don’t you think, mate?
Centre, I posted this on another site but it’s relevant to your last post as well:
“Ok you talk about China and the US because they’re the biggest emitters. But more than a third of global emissions come from countries like Australia. That is, countries that emit less than 2% of global emissions individually.
If we say it’s ok if we do effectively nothing because we’re so small then we also say that it’s ok for those other countries to do nothing. And while every other countries emissions become a smaller slice of global emissions, that third gets bigger and bigger.”
Telstra is seeking a monopoly. They refused to split their company between a fixed-line company and broadband company – if this does not happen, they have a 100% monopoly over telecommunications in Oz in terms of infrastructure.
I’m more than happy for Australia to get a monopoly broadband provider as its NBN – just so long as they don’t have a monopoly over fixed line comms as well…
No 856
Oz, the only thing that concerns the Australian parliament is Australia. We contribute little more than 1% of emissions and thus a unilateral act to dramatically reduce emissions and to our own competitive disadvantage is utter lunacy.
More importantly – what do you think of a company trying to dictate policy decisions to the government. Smacks of arrogance IMHO.
Let the other companies (that had the decency to supply serious bids) have the monopoly – I would love to see how Telstra responds to some decent competition for once…
No 857
Swing Lowe, you have no idea. Sorry.
Refusing to destroy the value of the company by structural separation is not the same as seeking a monopoly.
GP, first of all, there is no case for multiple fixed line networks to the majority of the population in Australia. But there actually isn’t an issue regarding private fixed-line monopolies as long as their successfully. The fact that Telstra owns the network AND competes at retail level automatically puts every other “competitor” at a lower point.
The only way to ensure competition at the retail level is to ensure that the retailers have no connection to the network itself. Neither Axia nor Acacia want to compete in the retail market.
I’m not really a fan of Optus’ proposal, but even they are willing to accept a structurally separated network.
None of those are my preference for how communications infrastructure should be run in Australia but they beat the pants off retail monopoly.
Its not the 5-15% stuff that bugs me the most, though. I mean, I think its weak, wont get us to where we need to be etc, but what gets me most is the $4b to the coal industry. On top of that, there was big bundle of $’s in the Infrastructure spending for Hunter rail to increase the export of coal from Newcastle three-fold. So we might put $500m into renewables (something at least), a couple of $b into rail transport (but half of that to coal freight), but we’re still building roads, giving subsidies to polluters, and expanding our coal export facilities – and of course conveniently saying “well, we”re not burning it”…
Hmm, wondering if GP isn’t right on Telstra. Personally don’t see the point about going all Americana and trying to build multiple systems. Need more info though.
Hey Ron, think you’re posts are pretty on the money today. Just thought I’d let you know.
Unilaterally? So what are the EU and California, scarecrows?
And of course losing our river systems and natural resources does not effect Australia.
Well I agree that Labor made one good decision today (Telstra not getting the $).
But I make no 3excuses for the GW cop-out. Saying Howard or Obama are worse is true, but is setting the bar far too low for my liking.
861 – *As long as they’re successfully regulated.
No 859
The potential policy decisions of the Government could have severe consequences for Telstra. It was only right for Telstra to seek guarantees that no further separation of its business would occur, otherwise the business case would not exist.
I, for one, hope Telstra now announce plans for a massive expansion of its HFC network, which is simply FTTN by another name. By the time the government finishes its pathetic bureaucratic process, Telstra will already have everyone locked into 2 year contracts @ 50mbps. Honestly, Conroy is out of his league.
Because they wont be able to extract monopoly rents from it, being an open access regime.
You would pay $85 for 1mbps speeds with 200mb download quota as Telstra was suggesting in their letter?
Good on you.
No 867
Where has Telstra said that its proposal would not have been open access. Truly, you need to research before making such silly comments.
If Telstra does that, than the government has done it’s job.
No 868
Wrong. Telstra proposed a $29.95 entry plan – 1mbps/200mb. See their NBN submission.
Geez, so much misinformation around these parts.
Ok, smart*ss – explain to me why allowing Telstra to have a complete monopoly over telco infrastructure in Australia is a good idea.
And secondly, the reason why Telstra’s bid got kicked out wasn’t because of monopoly considerations – it was because their bid was a 13 page submission that arrogantly demanded that the government accede to their requests before they submitted a detailed bid. If any other bidder responded in this way, I promise you the government would have (rightly) kicked their bid out as well…
Oz, if the world is serious about polution reduction, at the end of the day, the globe must act together. At least now we don’t have skeptics in power like the Liberal Party and Bush so things can move.
Speaking of Dubya, what about the guy who threw his shoes at him in Iraq. At least he was a straight shooter!
Plato would disagree Socrates. As for Aristotle- he’ld probably reclassify everything
Sure, sure. It’s all the government’s fault that Telstra put in a non-compliant bid. Take your hand off it GP.
No 872
Swing Lowe. Wrong again.
The Government apparently rejected Telstra’s bid because it did not provide a SME business plan with its submission, despite Telstra claims to the contrary.
Also, your concerns about “complete monopoly” are unfounded. There are several networks in Australia – many of which are not run by Telstra, such as the Optus 3G network, the Optus HFC network, the Vodafone and Hutchison wireless networks, the Unwired network….the idea that Telstra is a monopolist is just wrong.
Furthermore, Conroy’s policy is essentially an upgrade of Telstra’s copper network and thus it will entail the confiscation of Telstra’s assets. The mother of all High Court cases…..here we come. Bring it on I say.
Of course Telstra is a monopoly. GP has obviously got shares in them. There should be no monopolies. And their shares deserve to capitulate.
No 875
Telstra believes its submission was compliant. I think they should test it in court to piss Conroy off. After all, this is the same dolt trying to censor the net.
http://www.cio.com.au/article/269016/nbn_government_must_now_enforce_open_network_principles
http://www.zdnet.com.au/insight/communications/soa/What-is-the-NBN-good-for-/0,139023754,339293767,00.htm
By demanding guarantees of no structural separation as part of the tender and using their existing infrastructure as a core for their NBN proposal (with yet more guarantees of no third party overbuilds) open access becomes a cliche akin to the D in DPRK.
No 877
I hold no Telstra shares whatsoever. All my money is in cash deposits thanks to Kev’s guarantee.
Centaur009,
Archimedes would have had a bath.
No GP, the panel rejected Telstra’s bid. Telstra says it’s because it did not provide a SME plan which they say is wrong and are adamant they put in a compliant proposal, yet earlier they admitted themselves the proposal wasn’t compliant.
The comparison of fixed-line networks and wireless services is pathetic.
No 880
Possum, you don’t need structural separation for open access regimes to work. Telstra is willing to have ACCC oversight. Read its submission to the senate inquiry.
Furthermore, Telstra has not requested overbuild protection.
No 883
The panel is an arm of government; indeed it was created and appointed by the government. So it is the government. Quacking ducks and stuff….
Also, Conroy admitted in April that he would accept non-complying bids. So your point about compliance is moot anyway.
He said they would reviewed in the same way, he didn’t say they would be awarded the tender. =)
It was reviewed and found to be a piece of crap. The end.
No 886
The panel did not cast any aspersions as to the quality of the proposal or lack thereof. It simply stated that Telstra did not submit the trivial SME plan.
845 wrote :
I would like to register my absolute DELIGHT Conroy HAS exclude Telstra from the NBN RFP process. Absolute BRILLIANCE by the minister.
Like GG I think it Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of monopolist bast*rds.
Kohler has a view here :
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Trujillos-trivial-pursuit-$pd20081215-MC4AC?OpenDocument&src=spb
Dr Good @ 841
I know that many readers have not seen arguments about per capita carbon emissions before but they are the important values to concentrate on as we aim for fair reductions over the next few decades.
I’m sure the governments of China and India would love to have carbon emission standards set on a per capita basis. Their per capita emissions are a tiny fraction of ours because the only carbon energy using appliances the overwhelming majority of Chinese homes have is a single light fixture and a small TV with most Indians not even having that, and few drive gas guzzlers reliant instead on shanks pony, draught animals, bicycles or ridiculously overcrowded busses and trains for transport.
Rudd is using the per capita figure in the same way that Howard fudged Kyoto by claiming credits for supposedly not clearing land.
Anyway you look at it 5% is a mockery. Most businesses could easily achieve this by turning off lights and computers after hours.
The fact of the matter is that TLS did not submit a bid that complied WITH the five mandatory requirements set out in the tender documentation. Conroy said that he would accept non-complying bids BUT only accept those that complied with the five mandatory requirements (as opposed to the other provisional requirements laid out in the tender).
If TLS has supplied a bid that complied with these five mandatory requirements, the government would have had no choice but to keep it on foot. TLS can only blame itself for its rejection here. Maybe next time (if there is a next time), they’ll understand that in a RFT, it’s the tenderer that holds the power – not the bidder…
And Pythagoras would just go all obtuse on us!
If it’s so trivial, why didn’t Telstra submit one?
Stewart J
“Hey Ron, think you’re posts are pretty on the money today. Just thought I’d let you know.”
Thanks Stewart J , yes problam with coal yes , part political and part “timing” (to keep competitive) wwhen one looks at total transition period to ween it out
Dr Good re th per capital argument , Garnaut looked at that as well and assessed likelihood of coppenhaggen reely committing to th 450 ppg which he thought unlikely (that required 25% emmissions target for u & 40% reducton per capita) Garnaut reckon 550 ppg was most realistic and so do I and thats 10% target reduction 930% per capita)
Actualy Rudds 15% negotiating figure on table is abov Garnaut’s suggestion based on his expected 550pp Other thingy is th 5% base target figure which in any event under th 2 schemes will be exceeded by 2020 is 25% per capital , and criticaly 13% deviation from Kyoto 2008-2012 rate
Also alot may not realise th 5% and 15% ar on th higher 2000 levels , not 1990 levels
No 890
Swing Lowe, it is not an RFT, it is an RFP. At the end of the day, the expert panel will assess the proposals and provide a non-binding recommendation to the minister. The minister is well within his right to reject the recommendation.
On another topic, there’s going to be another woman on the High Court:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24802484-601,00.html
No 892
It did submit one. But apparently it was not submitted together with their proposal on Nov 26, but in early December.
Even accepting that it’s a stupid error, the Government should not have used the issue to exclude Telstra from the process. To me, it seems as if there is more going on behind the scenes.
GP,
An independant panel said the Telstra bid was non compliant. If Telstra want to challenge that then bring it on. However, on what I have seen to date, you’d have to say they have not complied. Use of words like trivial etc is just market spin for confirming their bid did not comply.
Telstra will turn Conroy in to a folk hero of epic proportions if they keep going with their truculent attitude. I would have thought libertarians like yourself GP would oppose monopolists as a matter of course. You are obviously quite flexible on your underlying philosophy.
I think you will find that Telstra, Sol and McGauchie are less popular than you think.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/telstras-broadband-mystery-20081215-6yn9.html
There will be little sympathy for telstra in the community. They are widely regarded as a bunch of bullies and pri*&ks.
AS for all of the TINA (There is no alternative) nonsense or “telstra” is the “natural” builder of NBN – it too is just self serving tripe.
In truth Telstra has played hardball with everyone they have come into contact with.
Maybe at last they have just gone too far and been too smart by half.
No 895
Hopefully she will not accrue a record of dissension in the same vicinity of Kirby.
No kidding. It’s probably got something to do with the fact that Telstra submitted a pathetic 13 page bid for a National Broadband Network, whilst playing a game of public brinkmanship with the government of the day.
In these situations, someone always loses. Today, it looks like Telstra has lost – badly.
Mayo
Good point about per-capita emissions. Even Europe and UK have half our emissions on a per-capita basis. Adopting a per capita approach opens Australia up to more criticism not less. Besides, the per-capita argument only is worth even considering if we intend to keep growing the population at a historically high rate. We shouldn’t.
Read a few CSIRO reports on the population carrying capacity of Australia, in terms of water and many other resources, and you soon realise that going beyond 25 million is crazy, even if you don’t give a damn about the environment. Its time we stopped paying people to have children and started paying them to use their brains.
Sorry Mayo you already know all this. I take it you have read Diamond’s Collapse?
You need it when the core of the monopoly network is built into the NBN proposal of the existing monopolist! It’s why Telstra can say things like “Telstra does not seek any overbuild protection – any competitor can build or upgrade its networks at any time to compete with a Telstra NBN” and not be caught telling lies. The effect comes not from the guarentee of no overbuild but from Telstra knowing that with no structural separation we get the effect of no overbuild happening – as we’ve seen over the last 5 years with the rollout of just about any technology by competitors needing Telstra to play ball.
They don’t.
And anyway – on competition grounds alone, if someone else gets the NBN, Tesltra have an alternative, competitive network.
Have you got something against the benefits of real competition comrade?
No 897
I am not a libertarian dave.
Also, despite the musings of Whingepool participants @ http://www.whirlpool.net.au; Telstra is the best company for the job. After all, the NBN is an upgrade of the Telstra network.
Conroy has failed to enunciate how he will navigate the constitutional obstacles relating to compulsory acquisition of assets.
Bad luck Telstra. You’re pushing a big pile of brown stuff up a mountain on this one GP lol
Buying back 50.01% of Telstra would be one way hahaha