The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has not replicated the Newspoll bounce, but that’s cold comfort for the Coalition as they still trail 59.5-40.5, unchanged from last time. The Greens are up three points on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 50.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and the Coalition is down from 35.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent.
We also have Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group. The outstanding features is a picture of relative Labor weakness in New South Wales, consistent with the theme that the state government is damaging their brand there. Charts galore from Possum.
In other news, 65-year-old back-bencher Philip Ruddock has made the surprise announcement that he plans to run again in his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Berowra. However, he seems in some danger of being blasted out by the state party’s vigorous Right faction, which did so much to contribute to the party’s success at the last election.
UPDATE: By popular demand, here’s a chart showing how Labor’s two-party vote has tracked across Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research this year. I only have figures going back to June for Essential, and have generally only used every second poll for Morgan and Essential to keep the figures concurrent with Newspoll. Alternatively, you could just look at Possum’s chart dump, which includes ACNielsen.
923 Comments
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Is it possible to keep these threads for Aus politics?? There are other places to discuss US politics if you so desire. Makes the discussion here very disjointed
yes time to put the walls up around australia again. quick i can hear those jobless mexicans coming
If the US car industry collapses that will have a profound effect on Australian politics.
glen wrote
why would anyone take ANY delight of ANY worker – let alone 3 million workers losing their jobs ?
Any news on the coalitions meeting.Is Barnaby the new leader of the opposition? Fiona Nash was easy on the eye. how dare they shelve her
Nash has considerable talent. They won’t be able to bench her for long.
Centaur009!! (footsteps)
Adam is right this is big news for Australian politics for there are several suburbs in Melbourne and Adelaide that could be hit very hard by this but there is a bit of DeJa Vu happening for we saw the House block the first moves to bail-out the banks then the market took a pounding only to have a new plan that was passed.
I think the same will happen here! I’m sure the Republicans will not want to be seen as the wreckers of three million jobs and the deth of American icons like GM
What does it matter to me?? The economy is already ruined in the short term ive already lost thousands with my shares so what’s some more short term pain for me?
I guess Rudd will be putting more money into our Auto Industry….but eventually Rudd is going to run out of money soon enough.
Dave, I don’t think Glen had thought through the interpretation that you and I have given his comment. I’ll be charitable enough to leave it at that.
Centaur…Fiona is a looker but she’s got more talent than Barnaby, she was only elected in 2004 i think. Agree with you on that one, why demote her and not have any consequences for Barnaby or Top End Nigel??
It’s all about Glen. maybe there should be the Glen factor to consider when making desicions.Will it affect Glen? No , then we should be Ok.
Typical self centered conservative sentiment. me myself and I
Scientific proof that Democrats are smarter than Republicans (and by extension, Labor voters have higher IQs than Libs
).
http://www.slate.com/id/2206512?nav=wp
Glen!! Everything that is wrong with the Right of politics can be summed up by you attempting a joke! up to 1-10 American jobs could be impacted for that is how many people are employed in relation to the car Industry.
I’m tipping on open Wall St to drop by 700-1000 points to finish with a drop of 300!!
I’m curious what is the payrate of an American car maker vs that of a Japanese car maker
Why am i castigated when i had nothing to do with the demise of their Auto Industry?
If it means anything to you i think the executives of GM et al should be in jail for gross mismanagment and their assets given to staff in redundencies….
As someone said, not all conservatives are stupid but all stupid people are conservatives.
Possibly jumped th horse over th cart with auto in ‘oz’ All is not lost in Detroit , its Russian roulette , Big car ar uncompetitive & obsolete plant with big short & long wage liabilities and Chapter 11 fixes that (if Govt giv bailout to retool) Also both Partys Agenda’s ar both diferent , but Senate doesn’t vote on party lines so its not over
But may add , these Big car CEO’s lobbed up to congress wanting 25 billion plus 15 biollion handout…what do they turn in , there own private planes…like turning up to a homeless kitchen in a tux , driving a lambergini
Glen!! I was not castigating you!! I was simplly unimpressed with you saying that you were making a joke!! I have been here long enough to know that you can be sensible and we have agreed on a great number of issues and I’m the first to admit to being sarastic & cheecky at times!!
Duly Noted.
Adam, is Stephen Conroy a conservative? If not, your proposition is false!
LOL sick burn Westie!
Also what about Bidgood??
Conroy is not stupid , he has simply handled a worthwile internet censoring proposal with some foolish comments
Glen re Bitgood , yes I agree
Adam at number 66,
The quote was by John Stuart Mill:
“The trouble with the Labor Party is that they don’t really believe in Socialism, but they cannot wholeheartedly approve of private enterprise either.”
Joseph Grimond
Glen, that at least makes them somewhat balanced and centrist, as opposed to the radical conservatives, no pretence at being balanced or moderate, who call themselves “Liberal”.
There are two kinds of fools: one says, “This is old, therefore it is good”; the other says, “This is new, therefore it is better.”
William Ralph Inge
Take Eric Abetz, for example. He was described by Jack The Insider as “arguably the most right-wing politician in the country”.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_losing_battle_for_the_centre/
By what definition is this extremist a “Liberal” – except by party name?
Amigo Ronnie, is this my parrot escaping from the G Island?
Fellow bludgers, I think the reporting on today’s state by state polling in the Oz indicated that NSW was a problem for the ALP and could result in the Rudd Government being a ‘oncer’!
Well it’s partly right, NSW is flat, but QLD, WA and SA are very rewarding for the ALP.
I’ve posted a year end summary here for those interested parties.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=4513
“worthwile internet censoring proposal”
Worthwhile for whom? The Exclusive Brethren? (Who claim not to use the internet anyway.)
Actually, Dumb’s Dumber, Bidgood, would no doubt think it’s worthwhile too!
Fellow bludgers, I think the reporting on today’s state by state polling in the Oz indicated that NSW was a problem for the ALP and could result in the Rudd Government being a ‘oncer’!
Nah, if necessary we’ll chuck NSW out of the Commonwealth and flog it to the Kiwis. Half of New Zealand is already living at Bondi I’m told.
Peter Hartcher is worth a read.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/peter-hartcher/peter-hartcher/2008/12/11/1228585020479.html
Considering that both Eric Abetz and Petro Georgiou wear their glasses low on their noses, this can be ruled out as a measure of conservativeness.
Begging your pardon Andrew but the only time William has ever had a dedicated US thread that I am aware of was for the US elections which are now technically over. Unless something has been posted to the contrary in the last 3 hours, don’t think it is going to happen for you …….
Glen @ 35, I’ve no idea in the long term. In the short term, they are probably better off because they can draw upon family money to help out. However, they are in the same boat as everyone else with the decline in the value of their portfolios so it won’t last indefinitely ………
OK, now I have the FINAL episode of The Howard Years on my iPod.
It is the only episode needed.
What about the Minnesota recount! I’ve been biting my nails for the last month!
Fulvio @ 38, Glen speaks the truth. I know he and I agreeing on anything makes for very strange bedfellows but none the less …. I grew up in Michigan and I know it from living it. My dad spent 30 years in the automotive industry as well so I know it up close and personal.
The only thing that Glen glosses over is that the “executives” are a lot more then the current crop of CEO’s. There are multiple incarnations over the years and because they had to deal with heads of the employees unions across the table and still run their businesses, concessions had to be made in contract talks over the years. There is blame on both sides, management and employees and there is plenty of blame to go around. Kind of like peeling multiple layers off of an onion ……..
JulieM,
Andrew is a known troublemaker. Always happy to instruct people on what to think or say.
Finns has him teed perfectly.
Glen @ 65,
Glen, as noted in a post just a bit ago, I’m WITH you tonight. Weird, eh? The car industry falls apart and we get a greens leaning labor voter siding with a rusted on lib
…… It makes a HUGE difference, I will tell you, having lived it for years and years. I can see exactly where you are coming from. The ONLY regret I have is that it will deeply affect my parents as dad is a GM retiree and they are both 73 ……. I hope that Bush gives them some money and/or GM at least (don’t have a personal stake in the other two companies) can hold out until Obama is sworn in. Geez, am I going to miss being out of touch with news between 15th of January and Australia Day ….. going to live or die on the top of the hour news updates from the ABC as we move cross country …..
Showson,
Minnesota isn’t enough to merit its own thread
…. I’m waiting on that one too but much more interested actually on the brewing cesspool in the Illinois state house 
Mayo,
You got to admire Shanahan. He picks the only stat in the whole poll that is negative to Rudd and Labor and promotes it to the top of the batting order.
How many elections have there been when we are told that the voters differentiate between Federal, State and Council elections? Yet we are now told that NSW Labor is a burden on Federal Labor. Oh, come now.
“The hills are alive with the sounds of bullsh*t”.
juliem
I have seen reports that the asian auto makers with plants in the US, pay (in an overall package sense) “about” the same wages as the US auto companies. The “story” being they did this so that their workplaces didn’t become unionised.
The bid difference from what I have seen is legacy costs – the US auto companies have MANY MANY retirees on their books, ie people who toiled loyally on agreed packages and retirement benefits which have already been so called “re-negotiated” DOWN on several ocassions already.
Other media reports convey a totally different impression, almost to the point that the workers are the major problem and enjoy huge wages – akimbo wall street style ??
An appropriate picture given the news ….. watch Wall Street tank tomorrow
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gen/53322/thumbs/s-JUNKYARD-large.jpg
Dave @ 93,
That is exactly right …. things might have changed marginally over the years as you note near the end of what I snipped above but failing bankruptcy, there is no other legal way for them to avoid those costs …. that is why I fear what might be around the corner as it personally affects my parents …..
juliem
charming indeed – screw the worker yet again. Really sucks.
We are not seeing much here in australia, but presumably people in the US are screaming for blood. Convictions for the wall street stuff etc.
Media is very quite about what action is being taken against the shysters.
Jesus, watching Question Time has really lowered your guys’ standards.
In what universe is Fiona Nash a “looker”? Not in this one.
The foresight of Hawke and Keating to introduce individual super for all and the existence of universal health care under Medicare. Neither perfect, but at least Australian workers have some surety in the basics.
We rock!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/peter-hartcher/peter-hartcher/2008/12/11/1228585020479.html
Turnbull is really looking like a fool with Kerry.
Red Kerry is ripping Allbull apart right now
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