The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has not replicated the Newspoll bounce, but that’s cold comfort for the Coalition as they still trail 59.5-40.5, unchanged from last time. The Greens are up three points on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 50.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and the Coalition is down from 35.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent.
We also have Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group. The outstanding features is a picture of relative Labor weakness in New South Wales, consistent with the theme that the state government is damaging their brand there. Charts galore from Possum.
In other news, 65-year-old back-bencher Philip Ruddock has made the surprise announcement that he plans to run again in his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Berowra. However, he seems in some danger of being blasted out by the state party’s vigorous Right faction, which did so much to contribute to the party’s success at the last election.
UPDATE: By popular demand, here’s a chart showing how Labor’s two-party vote has tracked across Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research this year. I only have figures going back to June for Essential, and have generally only used every second poll for Morgan and Essential to keep the figures concurrent with Newspoll. Alternatively, you could just look at Possum’s chart dump, which includes ACNielsen.
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Gee Red Kerry’s giving Turnbull a tough time… Malcolm floundering quite a bit on the deficit/recession thing
We are about to see a transformation of quite historic proportions – the US is about to become a social democracy, abandoning 200 years of rugged individualism. Even FDR couldn’t quite achieve this, but Obama will, partly by design and partly because he will have no choice. Universal health cover, de facto nationalisation of the banks and the car industry, expansion of state supervision of the economy, state mandated energy reforms to reduce carbon-dependence – all this will transform the US economy and thus US society and politics. Everything the Republican Party has stood for for the past century and more is being trashed before our eyes. As Ronald Reagan said, though not in this context: It’s morning in America!
A very good friend of mine is pretty well connected at Holden and works at a high level… hears lots of comments from big execs and drafts their reports, letters and so on.
The word is that Holden will go under in less than two weeks if the bailout in the USA does not proceed. The local arm is “joined at the hip” to the parent company and the parent company will rip the guts out of their subsidiary to tip the loot into surviving another few weeks, if that’s what it takes.
Decision day is just before Christmas. Hold onto your hats. We could be in for a Big One.
BB,
Makes you think that Rudd and Co are trying despeately to stay in front of the curve with today’s industry announcements.
Painful times ahead.
Here’s Ron Paul bewailing the death of conservative America.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/12/house_debates_auto_aid_bill.html
I thought it was good!
I like it when Governments spend money on train tracks (but not trains).
Oz wrote ;
Haha I laughed at the original comments and let them go through to the keeper
Red Kerry would never question Rudd like that…Turnbull looked woeful…i guess all he needed to say was that i wouldn’t go into a deficit unless i absolutely had to and not doing so would make the situation worse or i would try not to and try to avoid a recession.
GG, No such thing. It will good for the soul, especially the Y-Gen. It’s about time they learn to be completely on their own, with no direction home, like a rolling stone. Things also look very painful on the G Island.
Lighten up Dave/Oz, Fiona Nash puts Kate Lundy to shame.
BTW dave i wasnt the first to mention comments about her appearance…just so you know i was provoked.
Glen, how does it feel like to be completely on your own, with no direction home, like a rolling stone, among the carrion crows here at PB.
Finns,
Disagree. Many Australians have been protected from the the coming tsunami to date. My feel is there will be a lot of Companies who survive to Xmas and then bid adieu to many in their work force. It may sound cruel. But, how cruel to let people go on annual holidays without a job when they return.
BB describes Holden, an Austalian icon. How many others are there waiting to fall?
Like it has since i found pollbludger…doing my part, putting up an alternative point of view…
Oh come on Glen, Kerry hammers politicians from all sides.
Turnbull simply had no clue what he was talking about.
Kerry asked: So do you support the stimulus package?
Turnbull: I don’t think it matters.
108 said
What utter garbage ! Have a look at last nights transcripts.
Of course he did. He is all piss and wind and the smart mouth lawyer act has severe limitations against anyone even a smiggen brighter than fran kelly.
allbull ….. was given amble chance to criticise the governments policy and approach.
Then he was surprised, wrong footed and was most certainly totally unprepared and unable to answer what HE would do. What HIS policy would be ? He was asked multiple times what HE would do.
He twisted like corpse on the end of a rope and still he did not, could not answer what he would do – even though he spent the initial part of the interview rebuffing what was being done by the government.
If allbull is the best, the brightest the fibs can offer, god help them all.
allbull is a DUD !!!
Scoring points off Glen is a fairly trivial exercise when we look at the scale of the crisis, the double crisis, the world is facing at the moment. This is one of the great turning points of modern history. Responding effectively to climate change and the GFC simultaneously is going to put activist government back in the saddle in all western countries in a way we haven’t seen since World War II. That’s why Rudd, Brown and Obama are riding the political wave of the future while the conservatives (to mix my metaphors) are going down the toilet.
So do you think Brown will win in 2010?
Gee you guys should put spoiler alerts on these posts, for those of us that haven’t got there yet.
GG, I was retrenched when the word “retrench” was not even in the dictionary and carried certain negative stigma. The funny thing was that I did better after each retrenchment.
In the end I retrenched myself, and the funny thing is, again, I am doing better and better. Bring in on.
The Tories are only 4 points up now and Brown is miles ahead on the “who is best to deal with the GFC?” question. You’s have to suppose he’ll call an election in the northern summer (”give me a mandate to work with Obama and Kevin Rudd to save the world”), and win it.
That isn’t necessarily, Polyquats – as someone who sees these interviews two hours later than everyone else, I can say that they never bear the slightest resemblance to the way they’re described.
William,
Please post your reaction to the Dud-Bull interview in due course.
Yes please, William. Thanking you in great anticipation and excitement.
Finns,
You are probably young, educated, handsome and have the gift of the gab.
Unfortunately, the people about to be screwed over in the GFC are middleaged, with limited education, kids and an excessive mortgage to support and with English as a second language.
God help the over fifties and imperfect.
Just when you dispair about our yank friends along comes this :
Former US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other top administration officials are responsible for abuse of detainees in US custody, a bipartisan Senate report says
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/rumsfeld-responsible-for-abuse-report/2008/12/12/1228585104472.html
Almost a duh moment – did they really think they could blame privates or corporals foe ever
116,
Canada is only marking time, it will eventually get on the bandwagon as well
GG,
That is exactly what I was referring to – the Y-Gen.
not the people you have just described.
What about NZ???
They voted in the Tories during the GLC???
Harper will stay alive, Iggy is more likely to deal with the Tories than the NDP/Bloc…
Cameron will smash Brown, anybody who thinks they’ve saved the world isnt concerned with bread and butter issues at home.
Also we’ve got Germany and Italy and France all with Conservatives in power
Mind you the LDP in Japan is probably going down.
I thought the Tory’s inability to understand what Brown has achieved demonstrates how out of touch THEY are.
The Tories have consistently been ahead of Labor…Brown is a lame duck…even the Germans are criticising his economic policies…
Glen
Australia too! Rudd is a fiscal conservative.
What does it mean to be a conservative?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/business/13auto.html?hp
This afternoon Reid was saying they were going to keep negotiating, right?
Key ran on Labour policies anyway.
It’s the same as usual, the Republicans can’t handle that auto workers are heavily unionised.
They’re New Zealanders! Enough said.
If there was one group of people around the world who would be silly enough to throw out a respected incumbent with good policies during a time of global financial instability and replace her with a populist and opportunistic merchant banker it would be New Zealanders.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/shot-tylers-nationalist-myspace-page/2008/12/12/1228585102348.html
Now, would it be too insensitive to say good riddance? Yes, it would, my apology. No, it wouldn’t.
Not economic policies ShowsOn…
Also Harper’s Tories won a strengthened minority and the Left got smashed in Canada’s recent elections…
You had better be worried because if you go too far in centralisation with Global Warming and the GFL….We (Tories) Will Bury You…in good time…
Read an article today that pointed out that the “Big 3″ have donated $100 million to the Republican Party and $30 million to the Democrats.
Guess that investment didn’t play out so well.
Another example of gross mismanagement wouldnt you say Oz?
Sarkozy is behaving like a social democrat – don’t forget the Gaullists have never accepted Anglo-Saxon conservatism. Merkel is dragging her feet and is getting a terrible press as a result. I don’t know how well placed the SDP is to beat her but they must be given a chance. Berlusconi isn’t a conservative, he’s a semi-fascist clown and gangster. If France, Britain, Germany and Spain are agreed, Italy will have to go along. The key is persuading Merkel to get with the new zeitgeist.
Oh let me guess, he proposed tax cuts!
The universal solution to any problem for your side of politics.
Strengthened minority –> Oxymoron
A majority of Canadians voting for the three left parties is “getting smashed”?
I wouldn’t be shocked if the next U.K election gives us a Labor/Liberal Democrat Coalition Government.
And I agree: Turnball was woeful tonight, really inept! I doubt he’ll be leader in 6 months time!
Dunno how that will work out.
Her foreign minister took the rather unprecedented step of openly criticising Brown’s domestic economic policy.
That was certainly true about this one, William.
Glen: You obviously supported Stephen Harper shutting down parliament, so he could avoid the opposition parties overthrowing his government. But of course the conservatives are past masters at subverting democracy.
Any deal with GM has to revolve around their pension gurantees and protection of worker entitlements.
Then like in the 30’s the Fed will say we will save you but you have to start manufacturing different things like rockets to Mars, matter transformers and the like.
Oz the Liberal Party won 77 seats…recieved their lowest vote in Canadian Political History…26.26% down almost a million votes from 2006.
Do you call that result the people of Canada wanting the Left???
The NDP barely improved on last time with 18.18%…and just 37 seats…
The Tories won 143 seats with 37.65%….
I think that both Canada and the United Kingdom are moving in the direction of proportional representation to the probable usual disadvantage of the conservatives in both places.
Proportional representation is a crock and it wouldnt fly…Canadians in BC voted against proportional representation and First Past the Post (the only democratic method of voting) is well entrenched…
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