The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has not replicated the Newspoll bounce, but that’s cold comfort for the Coalition as they still trail 59.5-40.5, unchanged from last time. The Greens are up three points on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 50.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and the Coalition is down from 35.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent.
We also have Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group. The outstanding features is a picture of relative Labor weakness in New South Wales, consistent with the theme that the state government is damaging their brand there. Charts galore from Possum.
In other news, 65-year-old back-bencher Philip Ruddock has made the surprise announcement that he plans to run again in his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Berowra. However, he seems in some danger of being blasted out by the state party’s vigorous Right faction, which did so much to contribute to the party’s success at the last election.
UPDATE: By popular demand, here’s a chart showing how Labor’s two-party vote has tracked across Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research this year. I only have figures going back to June for Essential, and have generally only used every second poll for Morgan and Essential to keep the figures concurrent with Newspoll. Alternatively, you could just look at Possum’s chart dump, which includes ACNielsen.
923 Comments
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Glen, my previous post still stands. You said “the left got smashed”. They received a majority of the vote.
The result in BC was 58% FOR BC-STV. The referendum only failed because of the excessively high 60% pass requirement rate.
They didnt stand as one party if they had they may have won they didnt so they lost.
Harper would have had a majority had it not been for the Bloc.
BC are voting again next year on BC-STV.
Good luck to them.
Proportional Representation for lower houses of Parliament create unstable Government…if you dont believe me look at Holland and Belgium!
Got to agree – looked like a fish on the end of a spear.
Tom.
Glen you may as well as well say “Harper would have had a majority had it not been for the Liberals and NDP”.
http://www.fionanash.com.au I didn’t say model, I said easy on the eye. She has the classic Aussie chick look, big teeth, gums, frekly, rides horses and is probably a libra.
Kate Lundy is on par. Kate Ellis tops them all, but I really liked Mia Handshin who missed out.
The Bloc are over represented because of the first past the post system.
http://www.fairvote.ca/files/news%20release%20-%20october%2015%202008%20-%20election%20results.pdf
Kate Ellis is overated.
Why do we have to through this every single time?
Correlation does not imply causation. You can’t look at the situation in Belgium, pick one variable and then say “It’s because of this!!!!”.
If you care so much about “stable government” to fix Belgium then you may as well chuck in an absolute monarchy.
“Stable government” at the expense of proper democratic representation is a very nanny-ish way of looking at things.
Same with Nicole Cornes =(
Oi! Why was 7:30 Report on tonight???
Was it the last show for the year? Bugger, I missed it… oh well I’ll just have to wait for the net… At first I thought, don’t tell me it’s still Thursday!
And Hajnal Ban.
Maa Handshin now advises Ellis (on youth affairsI think)
Grog, it’ll be on next week but Kerry’s gone on holidays.
Cheers Oz, but why the Friday show? (not that I was hanging out for Stateline…)
The problem in Belgium is that there are two different linguistic groups of roughly the same size who`s representative parties (most to all parties are split along linguistic lines) have trouble cooperating in Parliament. Because they are in quite geographically distinct areas single member electorates would not help. Single member electorates help geographically dense parties (the Nationals and the Bloc) over parties of larger size with a more spread base (the Greens and the NDP).
What about Norway?
What about Denmark?
What about Germany?
What about Austria?
What about Sweden?
All of these countries have trouble forming government because they have a poor voting system…
yeah but Handshin has brains too, Cornes didn’t seem to. Yes hajnal ban was good but she won’t go far with that name. It sounds to middle eastern for the nationals. They need smoths, jones, joyce etc. How did Barnaby the busy buzzy bee go at the meeting today?
There was a 7:30 Report because there is no Stateline over summer.
Glen! At the Canadian election the Liberals and NDP between them got 44.4%, compared with the Tories’ 37.6%. I don’t know what kind of a mandate you think 37.6% of the vote is. The Bloc got 10%, so if they join or support a Liberal-NDP government, that government will represent 54.4% of voters. End of discussion.
ARISTOTLE
Thank you , very informative Agree NSW need watching , although drop in some areas in coalition as well and both partys losses to minor ones is some Labor offset , but there’s a message there for Labor to heed & giv alot of focus on to distinguish
So you’ve gone from “unstable” to “trouble forming government”. Ill-defined and pointless.
If you hadn’t noticed, Canada with their FPP is “unstable”.
Who does it for the girls or our gay brethren? I’ld be curious to know
The problem in Germany is that the SPD won`t work with the Left Party in the West and therefore at federal level.
Austria has trouble because of the far right.
I am not aware of any Government forming trouble in Scandinavia.
I never said it was a mandate i merely said the Liberal Party got its lowest vote ever
e v e r in h i s t o r y!
26% of the vote and 77 seats and 1million less people voting for them.
The Tories are the most preferred and given a tick to continue as a minority government with 143 seats up from 126 otherwise they’d have gone backwards not forwards Adam.
The Bloc denied them a majority.
Adam the Bloc cannot be included…they want to break up the country they dont count as far as i am concerned and shouldnt have any power like what the Liberals and NDP want to give them should they oust Harper. The Lib/NDP Coalition should get its mandate from the people not from the Bloc.
Glen that is all bollocks and you know it. Feeble even by your standards. I thought you supported the Westminster system?
Glen if you want to cut the power of the Bloc then support PR because it would cut them from around 51 seats to around 28 seats and the would not have the balance of power because the Liberals, NDP and Greens would have a majority together.
I do but for gods sake how can any political party form a government with an organisation that wants to break up the country that is complete bollocks…
Yes if they have a majority with the Sepratists then yes there is nothing stopping them. But they should take it to the people…they never said they’d form an alliance with the Bloc.
In the Canadian Election this year a majority of voters voted for a losing candidate.
http://www.fairvote.ca/files/news%20release%20-%20october%2017%202008%20-%20orphan%20voters%20total.pdf
Tom, they all got one vote and it counted once that is democratic.
Stephen Smith I hear.
Your warped definition of democratic does not change the fact that a majority of voters voted for losing candidates.
I say warped because it discounts the ability of those votes to have a chance to elect someone because of where the vote is cast.
And how do fell about your pals the British Tories supporting a *separatist party* (the SNP) in government in the Scottish Parliament?
“And how do fell” = “And how do you feel”
Glen
You ar 1/2 right and 1/2 wrong I feel its outragous th Bloc who want to carve up th Country have balance of power , and your point is valid
But one has to accept in a democracy thats how th votes and Party shares came out of electon , and surely you ar not suggesting disenfranchising Bloc voters You hav to wear it and hope Bloc do not extract too many concessions from Lberals/NDP
Why is it outrageous? If the majority in Quebec want to secede, they have a perfect right to do so.
Glen, did you see this one yet?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/this-sucks-but-im-rooting_b_150442.html
While I didn’t write it, I could have. This guy goes a long way towards explaining why I agree with you on this one tonight …..
night in Canberra
adam
dare they call them (the SNP) the squadrone volante?
Um (strains to remember Scottish history) – I thought the squadrone volante was a PRO-union party?
Just saw Turnbull on The 7.30 Report. He was fine.
Adam about as well as the Labor Party does getting support from the Welsh Nationalists in Wales lol
the SV were supposed to vote in opposition to Union with English,but at the last moment sided with the pro union
(the duke of Hamilton de facto leader of the opposition discovered he was suffering toothache,and was not able to be present to vote.
That was the WA version, William, after it had been redubbed and photoshopped. In the ES version he was crap.
Yea Whilsts th some questons appeared deadly and viewers may hav loved that , perhaps some viewers didn’t watch how Turnbull handled them
Its like those TV Debates , each sides srtongest supporters feel there man once easily
won
1797
Tories in power in england ratified the Act of Security
Come on Glen I had to get a new password just to come in and share with you. On the one hand you are arguing mandate from the people and then you try to argue they don’t really matter (as in your broad definition of democracy and the majority not supporting the Govt in a FPP election). Come on try and keep to your great mandate of the people argument, or tack right across the course to the far side and stick with whatever voting result happens, but please don’t tack backwards and forwards from side to side without thinking you’ll be taking your argument backwards.
Answer the question Glen. *You’re* the one who is arguing that it’s forbidden to collaborate with separatists. I’m pointing out that a party you support is doing just that.
And incidentally the BQ has *two* stated policy objectives. One is an independent Quebec, but the other is the defence of Quebec interests within Canada. If the BQ has decided that a Dion government would be better than a Harper government for Quebec’s interests, they have every right to vote Harper out.
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