The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has not replicated the Newspoll bounce, but that’s cold comfort for the Coalition as they still trail 59.5-40.5, unchanged from last time. The Greens are up three points on the primary vote to 10.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 50.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent and the Coalition is down from 35.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent.
We also have Newspoll’s latest quarterly aggregation of polling broken down by state and age group. The outstanding features is a picture of relative Labor weakness in New South Wales, consistent with the theme that the state government is damaging their brand there. Charts galore from Possum.
In other news, 65-year-old back-bencher Philip Ruddock has made the surprise announcement that he plans to run again in his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Berowra. However, he seems in some danger of being blasted out by the state party’s vigorous Right faction, which did so much to contribute to the party’s success at the last election.
UPDATE: By popular demand, here’s a chart showing how Labor’s two-party vote has tracked across Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research this year. I only have figures going back to June for Essential, and have generally only used every second poll for Morgan and Essential to keep the figures concurrent with Newspoll. Alternatively, you could just look at Possum’s chart dump, which includes ACNielsen.
923 Comments
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I really hope Handshin gets in next election. She would make a very good minister.
and she is hawt
Ron “I feel its outragous th Bloc who want to carve up th Country”
‘Why is it outrageous? If the majority in Quebec want to secede, they have a perfect right to do so.’
Outrageous of Bloc because they ar sitting in a National Parliament sanctimonously claiming to form a National government , when at every turn they will wish to break th country up
That is quite separate issue to th absolute right of majority Quebecans wanting to secede Th block hav a right to be National parliament but to be ‘part’ of th National govt of National Cnada is hypocritical at best , but not last politicans to do so
Read my last post before the fold, Ron
the minister of sport and her adviser in the parliament gym change rooms… soaping each other up in the showers..
hmmm wrong website for that I guess…
Well, there is that too
Well if Harper is also negotiating , then my criticism applies to him also
Aspect of Bloc policy of defending Quecbec’s interts within Canada may be a byproduct of riority , secession
I do not object to Quebecans majority wanting to secede Also I do NOT object to Bloc having members sitting in National Parliament 9democracy , and Glen should reely accept that and wish he would ) , but I do object to them being ‘part’ of a National Govt of a County they wish to dismember Of course from therepoint of view its a politcal advantage to do so , and it is democracy but doe not make it free from criticisng
Just wonder if in theory , One Nation had balance of power in HoR and had to choose if Howard Govt to continue or Rudd to continue , how one would react however she choosed….
I think we are all a little biased and a little quick to judge that Red Kerry has torn one of the conservatives to smitherines on the 7.30 Report. However, that was certainly the case tonight.
I have said Turnbull is a LIGHTWEIGHT from day one. Looks like I was right again.
Zombie and Dario, if you you don’t mind, these are people I know. If you want to masturbate there are other websites you could visit.
I’d say Cossie was sitting back with a glass of red in one hand and the remote in the other, a smirk from ear to ear
agree totally
Come on Adam… we only said she was hot, and she is!
has anyone seen cossie and turnbull in the same room at the same time?????
Introduction…?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/12/2445471.htm
http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2005/09/12/costello_wideweb__430×286.jpg
Bah, anyone could have done that with Photoshop
Kate Ellis was offered $30k to appear nude in one of the mens magazines. The money would have gone to charity. Kate laughed at the offer, but refused.
Agree totally to #209 These people deserve proper respect
.
Centre , if you were diog , I’d be saying …you ar wrong…again
You started off saying “we are all a little biased and a little quick to judge that Red Kerry has torn one of the conservatives to smitherines…” and then prceeded to be ‘a little biased and a little quick to judge anyway Thats like th numerous people who ar about to insult me saying ‘I don’t wish to arrogant but , and then proceed to be arrogant , and can never understand appology of th insult before delivering that very insult
There is no god…
Actually that photo looks like they’ve just eaten a s**t sandwich
they better get used to a daily serving
Ron, no.
I am not being biased about tonights interview. As for being arrogant, I’m only having a little fun.
I’m with Ron and Adam (OMG – is the sky falling?). I’m a little tired of the objectifying of female politicians. Grow up, boys.
And as much as it pains me to admit it, while Allbull is a pathetic light weight, he survived the Kerry the Red reasonably well today. Nothing there to worry the rusted-ons.
Just checking some of the earlier comments, even Glen reckons Turnbull got smashed by Kerry.
Centre so Glen thinks Turnbull got smashed and William says he was fine…Who to believe??!!!
The sky is falling. Glen is right, William is wrong.
Centre
steady on there old son,
william is never wrong-only sometimes misguided
Well I;ve seen it and Im with Glen. My fave bit about deficits:
KERRY O’BRIEN: When you talk about now saying that one should – government should only go into deficit as a last resort, what in your terms is a last resort? Is this not last resort? And they’re not in deficit yet. They’re saying at this stage they’re not going to go into deficit, but they’d be prepared to if they had to. So, what’s last resort for you? Will you wait until we’re in recession, or … ?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Kerry, well, Kerry, Kerry, we’ll see. I mean, the reality is …
KERRY O’BRIEN: You don’t know?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, Kerry, you don’t know either.
KERRY O’BRIEN: No, no, but what I’m saying to you is: you’ve said “as a last resort”. Surely you must have some definition in your mind of what constitutes a last resort before a government would act to go into deficit in order to protect an economy.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: OK, this is the definition – you mightn’t like this – but, what the Government has got to do is to get the best economic outcome for the money it spends. And so what it’s got …
KERRY O’BRIEN: Oh, well, you’re just going to repeat what you said before, because that isn’t a definition of last resort.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: No, but, you see, the fact is the Government’s got to work out what outcome it needs in terms of stimulating the economy or supporting employment or whatever it is, you know, or providing social equity to people on lower incomes – whatever its goal is. It’s then got to seek to achieve that outcome by using taxpayers’ money most effectively. In other words, it’s got to get the biggest bang for the fewest number of dollars, the fewest bucks. And that is – and the concern that I have and that I think a lot of Australians have is that Mr Rudd will not be as hard-nosed about spending taxpayers’ money as he ought to be and that will in effect use the current financial crisis as a leave pass to relax his discipline. And that’s why …
KERRY O’BRIEN: Now, Mr Turnbull, with respect, you’re simply repeating what you’ve said earlier twice now. The question really was …
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well it was right the first time.
KERRY O’BRIEN: No, no. The question really was: how do you define what a last resort is, at which point, you, if you led a Government, would be prepared to go into deficit? You’ve said that’s when Governments should go into deficit, but you won’t tell me what you regard as last resort. Is it before an economy goes into recession to try and stop that happening, to try and prop up jobs? Is it after it’s gone into recession? Is it before it heads into a deep and prolonged recession?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, the short answer is that a Government should not go into deficit other than as a last resort.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Yes.
MALCOLM TURNBULL: And a last resort means that you shouldn’t go into deficit unless, without going into deficit, you would cause – you would fail to prevent serious economic harm in the economy.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Like a recession?
MALCOLM TURNBULL: Well, exactly. That’s right.
Andrew yes. I thought the worst part of the interview was when Turnbull said to some business gathering that Rudd should be managing the economy like a business and running a tight ship.
So Kerry asked something like, would you cut jobs and cut expenditure like business at a time where we face possible recession? Turnbull did not know what to say. He is clearly not upto the job. He is all reputation. I say this at a time where Rudd is not at all threatened by anybody in the Liberal Party.
There was some speculation in the Herald today that Hockey might be moving to State parliament to take over from Barry.
The last sentence of #228 is certainly true. I’ll reserve judgement on the previous sentence.
It has rained in Canberra all day and all evening without a break. Maybe the drought has broken. Penny Wong could be delivering her big statement on Monday in two feet of water.
Ok, I’ve had several glasses of red, but reading that transcript back all I could do was laugh myself silly… surely Malcolm could have kept on about the line he has been trying to get out there so far, i.e. JOBS. When Kezza says ‘whats your definition of last resort’ you say when JOBS are lost! You hammer JOBS. Sheesh, even I could have done a better job of it half cut! (no pun intended). Cossie, where are you???
Also what about the fact that tax cuts are RECURRING, whereas the stimulus package is directly targeted at boosting the economy?
Turnbull had no answer. He was totally speechless. He is out of his depth. Politics is truly not his field of expertise and he should be doing something else.
Sydney too. 5cm added to the catchment in 24 hours. Precipitation will always be higher under a Labor government.
check out the latest images
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml
Yeah, you almost felt sorry for him
Genius.
Adam way back at #102 said:
Cant disagree.
Now picture this – GM files for Chapter 11 but soon realises that it’s effectively insolvent because of it’s enormous future liabilities regarding pension payments and healthcare provision for its past workforce. Bailout packages are designed and taken to the House but conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats join in an unholy alliance to prevent tax payers money from being pissed up the wall in an exercise of industrial palliative care.
China steps into the fray and offers to buy GM with promises to not only maintain it’s existing workforce (but not hire new workers, letting attrition take hold over time to reduce labour costs in the US), but also offers the prosepct of GM cars manufactured in the US getting a free pass into the Chinese domestic market tariff (and other state imposed burdens) free. However, they will only buy out GM if the liabilities regarding pensions (which arent particularly shit hot to begin with) and healthcare provision for the previous workforce (which are even less shit hot) are taken over by the government.
As a result of the Chinese offer, a number of other large US companies join the fray asking for a plan to offload health and pension liabilities onto the State in return for a guarentee of a large continuing domestic presence in the US economy.
Obama conveniently bites the bullet, not only instituting a solid universal healthcare plan but also piledriving that third rail of American politics – Social Security. Business gets behind both policies for the first time in history (because they no longer have the balance sheet luxury of letting their ideology overrule their corporate self interest), the liberal media goes utterly orgasmic, most Republicans dare not stand in the way and Adams vision of social democracy comes to fruition in the US – not because of some outbreak of political self awareness and deeper understanding of social cost benefit, but simply because of necessity.
Or am I dreaming here?
I can’t say I can believe it will go down exactly as you suggest, but I think a watershed is certainly on the horizon
Good argument for a bill of rights:
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/12/12/unhelpful/
If I was Tanner watching that interview I’d be displeasd with Kerry Th most if anyting swingers would get from that interview is Deficits ar bad , Turnbull is against Deficits and Deficits ar only ar last resort , and only if to prevent a recession Thats partly th Libs argument
Whereas Labor (rightly) wants to strike well before that , and Taner has said this ‘talk’ by MSN is unhelpful to consumer confidense …and it is not , confidense is in trouble
Possum and Adam
You both may be right but there is a very large underclass in the USA, and a very leaky boarder. The system only works because the underclass gets jack sit. No health care, no unemployment and no pension. It’s going to be one monumental change.
237 Possum
…apart from the fact that you’ve made it seem simple.
China is the wildcard, but even without them it could come to pass.
Interesting times.
I dozed through geography a long time ago, but I think a watershed is by definition is on the horizon.
Poss
Two considerations
1. Is GM essential to the military/industry alliance-pivot point and all that
2.What is GM’s worth to china? ie what does china stand to gain
Good point.
It’s obviously unprofitable.
If GM dies there’ll be quite a gap to fill. China already has car companies working to plug that.
What nation is currently the biggest in the world without a serious car industry?
Chapter 11 I think allows tthose workers liabilitys to be renotiated as well as all those Dealer contracts , but it won’t giv GM etc from Senate th 25 billion retooling bailout or th 15 billion cash flow bailout…but Chinese may
Tom
China has the largest
Britain aint got diddly squat
smartass
Quality is obviously an issue
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